Pre-monsoon rainfall (PMR) over India, occurring during March–May, plays a crucial role in mitigating heat stress, replenishing soil moisture, supporting agricultural planning, and sustaining water resources prior to the onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variability and evolving dynamics of PMR over India during 1963–2022 by comparing two multi-decadal periods: the Past Decades (PD: 1963–1992) and the Recent Decades (RD: 1993–2022). The analysis integrates high-resolution rainfall observations from the India Meteorological Department with ERA5 reanalysis datasets, including sea surface temperature (SST), relative humidity (RH), soil moisture, total precipitable water (TPW), surface solar radiation, and wind fields at 850 hPa and 200 hPa. The results reveal a marked intensification of PMR during RD, with significant increases in both rainfall amount and the frequency of rainy days (>2.5 mm day−1) over southern, central, and western India, while northern and northeastern regions exhibit notable declines. This spatial reorganization of rainfall is closely linked to basin-wide Indian Ocean warming, particularly over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, which has enhanced atmospheric moisture availability and convective potential. Increased TPW, elevated near-surface RH, and higher moist static energy indicate strengthened thermodynamic instability, supported by circulation changes marked by weakened low-level anticyclonic flow over the Arabian Sea and enhanced upper-level divergence over peninsular and central India. These conditions collectively favour deep convection and vertical moisture transport during the pre-monsoon season. Multi-model simulations from six CMIP6 climate models independently reproduce the observed RD–PD rainfall increase, reinforcing confidence in the observational findings. Overall, the results suggest that the combined influence of large-scale oceanic warming and locally enhanced convective instability has created a more favourable environment for pre-monsoon convection over India in recent decades. Improving the representation of these coupled land–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks in seasonal forecasting systems is therefore essential for advancing climate adaptation strategies in agriculture, disaster preparedness, and water resource management under a rapidly warming climate.
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