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Changing dynamics of pre-monsoon rainfall over India (1963–2022): The role ocean-atmosphere drivers and regional impacts 印度季风前降水的变化动态(1963-2022):海洋-大气驱动因素的作用和区域影响
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108821
G.Ch. Satyanarayana , Hirali Sahukar , Rupraj Biswasharma , N. Umakanth , Sambasivarao Velivelli , D. Srinivas
Pre-monsoon rainfall (PMR) over India, occurring during March–May, plays a crucial role in mitigating heat stress, replenishing soil moisture, supporting agricultural planning, and sustaining water resources prior to the onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variability and evolving dynamics of PMR over India during 1963–2022 by comparing two multi-decadal periods: the Past Decades (PD: 1963–1992) and the Recent Decades (RD: 1993–2022). The analysis integrates high-resolution rainfall observations from the India Meteorological Department with ERA5 reanalysis datasets, including sea surface temperature (SST), relative humidity (RH), soil moisture, total precipitable water (TPW), surface solar radiation, and wind fields at 850 hPa and 200 hPa. The results reveal a marked intensification of PMR during RD, with significant increases in both rainfall amount and the frequency of rainy days (>2.5 mm day−1) over southern, central, and western India, while northern and northeastern regions exhibit notable declines. This spatial reorganization of rainfall is closely linked to basin-wide Indian Ocean warming, particularly over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, which has enhanced atmospheric moisture availability and convective potential. Increased TPW, elevated near-surface RH, and higher moist static energy indicate strengthened thermodynamic instability, supported by circulation changes marked by weakened low-level anticyclonic flow over the Arabian Sea and enhanced upper-level divergence over peninsular and central India. These conditions collectively favour deep convection and vertical moisture transport during the pre-monsoon season. Multi-model simulations from six CMIP6 climate models independently reproduce the observed RD–PD rainfall increase, reinforcing confidence in the observational findings. Overall, the results suggest that the combined influence of large-scale oceanic warming and locally enhanced convective instability has created a more favourable environment for pre-monsoon convection over India in recent decades. Improving the representation of these coupled land–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks in seasonal forecasting systems is therefore essential for advancing climate adaptation strategies in agriculture, disaster preparedness, and water resource management under a rapidly warming climate.
印度季风前降雨(PMR)发生在3 - 5月,在印度夏季风开始之前,在缓解热应激、补充土壤水分、支持农业规划和维持水资源方面起着至关重要的作用。本文通过比较过去几十年(PD: 1963-1992)和最近几十年(RD: 1993-2022)两个多年代际周期,研究了1963-2022年印度PMR的时空变化及其演变动态。该分析综合了来自印度气象部门的高分辨率降雨观测数据和ERA5再分析数据集,包括海面温度(SST)、相对湿度(RH)、土壤湿度、总可降水量(TPW)、地表太阳辐射以及850 hPa和200 hPa的风场。结果表明,在RD期间,PMR显著增强,印度南部、中部和西部地区的降雨量和雨天频率(>2.5 mm day - 1)均显著增加,而北部和东北部地区则显著减少。降雨的这种空间重组与整个盆地的印度洋变暖密切相关,特别是在阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾,这增强了大气水分可利用性和对流势。TPW的增加、近地面相对湿度的升高和湿润静态能的升高表明,阿拉伯海上空低层反气旋气流减弱、半岛和印度中部上空高层辐散增强等环流变化支持了热力不稳定性的增强。这些条件共同有利于季风前季节的深层对流和垂直水汽输送。来自6个CMIP6气候模式的多模式模拟独立再现了观测到的RD-PD降水增加,增强了观测结果的可信度。总体而言,结果表明,近几十年来,大尺度海洋变暖和局地对流不稳定性增强的综合影响为印度季风前对流创造了更有利的环境。因此,在快速变暖的气候下,改善季节性预报系统中陆-海-气耦合反馈的代表性对于推进农业、备灾和水资源管理方面的气候适应战略至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Dense gauge observations-based evaluation of gridded precipitation in southwest China and its implication for future data development 基于密规观测的西南网格化降水评价及其对未来数据发展的启示
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108816
Zhuqing Zhang , Long Zhao , Yaozhi Jiang , Jianhong Zhou , Wenping Yu , Qi Luo , Heng Zhou
Southwest China, characterized by complex topography and pronounced land surface heterogeneity, demands high-quality precipitation data for land surface processes monitoring and modeling. However, the quality of existing gridded precipitation products in this region remains unclear. Using high-density meteorological station observations from 525 national stations and 13,713 regional stations covering 2016–2020, this study comprehensively evaluates eight mainstream gridded precipitation products, including three satellite-based (GSMaP-Gauge, IMERG-Final, GSMaP-Mvk), two model-based (ERA5, ERA5-Land), and three merged (MSWEP, CMFD, GLDAS) products. Results suggest that: (1) none of the products possess satisfactory performance (KGE < 0) over the entire region, and the uncertainty in precipitation estimation—reflected by inter-product discrepancies—increases significantly (from ∼150 mm/y to ∼400 mm/y) with terrain complexity (from ∼25 m to ∼1000 m of sub-grid heterogeneity); (2) all products can reasonably capture seasonal variability but fail to characterize extremely heavy and light rainfall events, and model-based products exhibit relatively better precipitation detection capability (e.g., with POD >0.90 and CSI > 0.50 for ERA5 and ERA5-Land); (3) while most products exhibit relatively favorable consistency with observations from national stations, their performance is remarkably degraded over regional stations (e.g., monthly KGE values decrease from >0.50 to <0 for all products). Additional analyses reveal that model-based products (e.g., ERA5 and ERA5-Land) can better depict the spatial distribution of precipitation in complex and sparsely monitored regions, and the incorporation of gauge observations can further mitigate abovementioned uncertainties (e.g., with Bias <60 mm/y and RMSE <345 mm/y for GSMaP-Gauge and MSWEP).
西南地区地形复杂,地表异质性明显,地表过程监测与建模需要高质量的降水数据。然而,该地区现有格网降水产品的质量仍不清楚。利用2016-2020年525个国家级站点和13713个区域站点的高密度气象站观测数据,综合评价了8种主流网格化降水产品,包括3种卫星产品(GSMaP-Gauge、imerge - final、GSMaP-Mvk)、2种模式产品(ERA5、ERA5- land)和3种合并产品(MSWEP、CMFD、GLDAS)。结果表明:(1)在整个区域内,没有一个产品具有令人满意的性能(KGE < 0),并且随着地形复杂性(从~ 25 m到~ 1000 m的亚网格异质性),降水估算的不确定性(由产品间差异反映)显著增加(从~ 150 mm/y到~ 400 mm/y);(2)所有产品都能较好地捕捉季节变化,但不能表征极端强降水和小雨事件,基于模式的产品表现出较好的降水检测能力(例如,ERA5和ERA5- land的POD >;0.90和CSI >; 0.50);(3)虽然大多数产品与国家台站的观测结果具有较好的一致性,但它们的性能在区域台站上明显下降(例如,所有产品的月KGE值从>;0.50下降到<;0)。进一步的分析表明,基于模式的产品(如ERA5和ERA5- land)可以更好地描述复杂和监测较少的地区的降水空间分布,而结合量规观测可以进一步减轻上述不确定性(如GSMaP-Gauge和MSWEP的偏差和RMSE分别为60 mm/年和345 mm/年)。
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引用次数: 0
Synergistic effects of IOD and ENSO on autumn near-surface wind speed variability across the Asian monsoon regions IOD和ENSO对亚洲季风区秋季近地面风速变异的协同效应
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108800
Wentian Qiu , Kaiqiang Deng , Lianlian Xu , Xi Chen , Jiayi Nie
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are important sources of interannual predictability in the tropical oceans. While the IOD and ENSO can exert significant impacts on global temperature and precipitation, their influence on near-surface wind speed (NSWS) in the Asian monsoon region remains unclear. This study explores how IOD and ENSO synergistically affect the NSWS variability over South and East Asia in autumn, a season characterized by peak IOD intensity and rapidly developing ENSO. The results indicate that IOD predominantly influences the NSWS variations in the tropical Indian Ocean and northern China, while ENSO has a stronger effect over southern China. Concurrent positive IOD and El Niño events generate high-pressure anomalies over the Bay of Bengal and the western Pacific, which induce easterly anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean and southwesterly anomalies over southern China, leading to significant NSWS reductions in both areas. In contrast, negative IOD and La Niña events produce low-pressure anomalies over the tropical oceans, resulting in an enhanced NSWS over the equatorial Indian Ocean and southern China. Furthermore, positive IOD events are suggested to weaken the NSWS in northern China by triggering northeastward-propagating Rossby waves, which induce barotropic anticyclonic circulation anomalies over northeastern China and southeasterly wind anomalies over northern China, causing declined NSWS in this area. These findings advance our understanding of the interannual variability in the NSWS across Asian monsoon region, providing valuable insights for interannual predictions of the regional wind climate and the renewable wind energy.
印度洋偶极子(IOD)和厄尔尼诺Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO)是热带海洋年际可预测性的重要来源。虽然IOD和ENSO对全球气温和降水有显著影响,但它们对亚洲季风区近地面风速的影响尚不清楚。本研究探讨了IOD和ENSO如何协同影响南亚和东亚地区秋季的NSWS变率,这是一个IOD强度峰值和ENSO快速发展的季节。结果表明,IOD主要影响热带印度洋和中国北部的NSWS变化,而ENSO对中国南部的影响更强。同时发生的IOD正事件和El Niño事件在孟加拉湾和西太平洋产生高压异常,引起赤道印度洋偏东异常和华南偏西南异常,导致这两个地区的NSWS显著减少。相反,负IOD和La Niña事件在热带海洋上空产生低压异常,导致赤道印度洋和中国南部的NSWS增强。此外,IOD正事件通过触发向东北传播的Rossby波减弱了中国北方的NSWS,而Rossby波引起中国东北的正压反气旋环流异常和中国北方的东南风异常,导致该地区NSWS减弱。这些发现促进了我们对亚洲季风区NSWS年际变化的认识,为区域风气候和可再生风能的年际预测提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Observational analysis of absorbing and non-absorbing aerosol effects on heavy rainfall in southwestern Iran 伊朗西南部强降雨中吸收和非吸收气溶胶效应的观测分析
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108796
Zakiyeh Alibeygi, Maryam Gharaylou, Abbasali AliAkbari Bidokhti
Understanding the impact of aerosols on heavy precipitation is crucial for improving predictions and management of atmospheric processes. Heavy convective precipitation often occurs within a few hours, making the investigation of aerosol influences on daily precipitation variability particularly important. In this study, heavy rainfall events in southwestern Iran were identified using ERA5 data alongside aerosol measurements from two satellite sources and the EAC4 reanalysis dataset. These datasets enabled analysis of aerosol optical depth (AOD), differentiation of aerosol types, and assessment of additional aerosol-related indices in the region. Two indices were used to classify clean and polluted conditions at macro- and micro-scales: AOD as a large-scale indicator, and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) as a small-scale indicator. The 25th and 75th percentiles of these indices over all rainy days were used as thresholds for clean and polluted conditions. Four aerosol types common in southwestern Iran were examined: black carbon (BC) and dust as radiatively absorbing aerosols, and sulfate and sea salt as non-absorbing aerosols. Analysis revealed three key features of daily heavy precipitation variability associated with aerosol types. Under polluted conditions defined by AOD, precipitation onset and peak occurred earlier, but event duration was shorter. In contrast, under polluted conditions defined by CDNC, precipitation started earlier but peaked later, with a longer duration. Furthermore, absorbing aerosols were associated with earlier onset and delayed peaks, whereas non-absorbing aerosols corresponded to delayed onset and extended precipitation duration. These findings highlight the distinct roles of aerosol types in modulating heavy rainfall characteristics.
了解气溶胶对强降水的影响对改善大气过程的预测和管理至关重要。强对流降水经常在几小时内发生,因此研究气溶胶对日降水变率的影响尤为重要。在这项研究中,利用ERA5数据以及来自两个卫星来源和EAC4再分析数据集的气溶胶测量数据,确定了伊朗西南部的强降雨事件。这些数据集有助于分析该地区气溶胶光学深度(AOD)、气溶胶类型的区分以及评估其他气溶胶相关指数。采用两个指标对宏观和微观尺度上的清洁和污染状况进行分类:AOD作为大尺度指标,云滴数浓度(CDNC)作为小尺度指标。在所有雨天,这些指数的第25和第75百分位数被用作清洁和污染条件的阈值。研究了伊朗西南部常见的四种气溶胶类型:黑碳(BC)和灰尘是辐射吸收气溶胶,硫酸盐和海盐是非吸收气溶胶。分析揭示了与气溶胶类型相关的日强降水变率的三个关键特征。在以AOD定义的污染条件下,降水开始时间和峰值时间较早,但持续时间较短。相比之下,在CDNC定义的污染条件下,降水开始较早,峰值较晚,持续时间较长。此外,吸收性气溶胶与较早的峰期和较晚的峰期有关,而非吸收性气溶胶与较晚的峰期和较长的降水持续时间有关。这些发现突出了气溶胶类型在调节强降雨特征中的独特作用。
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引用次数: 0
A Bayesian model for blending satellite precipitation estimates to enhance drought monitoring in poorly gauged regions 混合卫星降水估计的贝叶斯模型,以加强在测量不佳地区的干旱监测
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108799
Vinícius de Matos Brandão Raposo, André Ferreira Rodrigues, Veber Afonso Figueiredo Costa
Droughts are among society's most damaging climatic disasters, representing a complex phenomenon in which precipitation plays a central role. In poorly gauged regions, precipitation estimates from remote sensing have been widely employed. However, these data often exhibit bias and may not accurately depict the spatiotemporal variability of the rainfall processes. To address these problems, this study aims to propose a novel prediction model to enhance the reliability of rainfall estimates in poorly gauged regions by utilizing a Bayesian approach to blend multiple Satellite Precipitation Estimates (SPEs). CHIRPSv2, IMERG V06, and CMORPH were the selected SPEs for building the blending model, which was applied to estimate monthly rainfall data in the Doce River catchment and the mid-lower portion of the São Francisco River catchment, both in Brazil. Comparative analyses between rainfall gauging data and the SPEs, as well as the blending model, unveiled the enhanced performance of the new precipitation estimates, demonstrating consistently lower values for RMSE, NRMSE, and PBIAS in both study areas. We also assessed the ability of the SPEs and the blending model to capture drought conditions across different aggregation scales of the Standardized Precipitation Index (1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months). Regarding the number of drought months and magnitudes accurately identified, the blending model consistently achieved better performance from SPI-1 to SPI-9, but was outperformed at SPI-12 by different SPEs. Overall, despite its increased complexity, this approach can be effective for drought characterization in regions with sparse monitoring and further hydrological applications on a monthly scale.
干旱是社会最具破坏性的气候灾害之一,是一种复杂的现象,其中降水起着核心作用。在测量差的地区,已广泛采用遥感估算的降水。然而,这些数据往往表现出偏差,可能不能准确地描述降雨过程的时空变化。为了解决这些问题,本研究旨在提出一种新的预测模型,利用贝叶斯方法混合多个卫星降水估计(spe),以提高测量差地区降雨估计的可靠性。选取CHIRPSv2、IMERG V06和CMORPH作为构建混合模型的spe,将混合模型用于估计巴西多塞河流域和奥弗朗西斯科河流域中下游的月降雨量数据。通过对降水测量数据与SPEs以及混合模型的对比分析,揭示了新的降水估计的增强性能,表明两个研究区域的RMSE、NRMSE和PBIAS值始终较低。我们还评估了SPEs和混合模型在标准化降水指数(1、3、6、9和12个月)不同聚集尺度上捕获干旱条件的能力。对于准确识别的干旱月数和震级,混合模型在SPI-1到SPI-9的表现一致较好,但在SPI-12的表现被不同的spe所优于。总的来说,尽管这种方法增加了复杂性,但在监测较少的地区和进一步的月度水文应用中,这种方法可以有效地描述干旱特征。
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引用次数: 0
WAWL-net: A hybrid model combining weighted aggregation and wavelet convolutions for tropical cyclone intensity estimation WAWL-net:一种结合加权聚集和小波卷积的混合模式用于热带气旋强度估计
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108797
Yuchao Ni , Yuanping Zhu , Baihua Xiao , Qing Liu
Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) intensity estimation can improve the effectiveness of numerical forecasts of TC intensity. The similarity between the TC categories and the significant differences within each category make this task highly challenging. In TC intensity estimation, the most discriminative features are in the center region of the TC. The limitations of existing methods are from their failure to effectively capture both local and global feature simultaneously. In this paper, a hybrid network is proposed in which Weight Aggregated Convolution adaptively adjusts kernel weights to capture local features, while linear attention is used to model global dependencies. In addition, a wavelet transform convolution layer is added to improve frequency domain sensitivity for more efficient feature extraction and comprehensive data understanding. The proposed WAWL-Net model effectively integrates local structural details and global contextual dependencies for TC intensity estimation, significantly improving the model's ability to accurately estimate the TC intensity with lower computational complexity. The effectiveness of our network was validated using multi-channel (IR, WV, PMW) channel data on the TCIR benchmark, where it achieved state-of-the-art performance.
准确的热带气旋强度估算可以提高热带气旋强度数值预报的有效性。TC类别之间的相似性以及每个类别内部的显著差异使得这项任务极具挑战性。在TC强度估计中,最具判别性的特征是在TC的中心区域。现有方法的局限性在于不能有效地同时捕获局部和全局特征。本文提出了一种混合网络,其中权值聚合卷积自适应调整核权值以捕获局部特征,而线性关注用于建模全局依赖关系。此外,增加了小波变换卷积层,提高频域灵敏度,实现更高效的特征提取和更全面的数据理解。提出的WAWL-Net模型有效地将局部结构细节和全局上下文依赖关系集成到TC强度估计中,显著提高了模型以较低的计算复杂度准确估计TC强度的能力。我们的网络的有效性在TCIR基准上使用多通道(IR, WV, PMW)通道数据进行了验证,在那里它达到了最先进的性能。
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引用次数: 0
Data assimilation of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in CMA-MESO/CUACE model to improve weather predictions in China CMA-MESO/CUACE模式中气溶胶光学深度(AOD)资料同化对中国天气预报的改进
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108780
Jia Hong , Wenyuan Chang , Wei Han , Zhaorong Zhuang , Hao Wang , Lei Bi , Xueshun Shen
Aerosols play key role in cloud nucleation and atmospheric radiation processes, thus an accurate aerosol modeling is critical for numerical weather predictions. This study establishes an aerosol optical depth (AOD) 3D-Var data assimilation (DA) scheme for the CMA-MESO/CUACE weather prediction model, assimilates AOD retrievals derived from the Fengyun-4B (FY-4B) satellite, and evaluates the impacts of AOD DA on weather predictions through a month-long hindcast experiment. The AOD observation operator is built based on a look-up table, of which the aerosol optical properties (AOP) are computed for non-spherical dust with the invariant imbedding T-matrix method and for spherical anthropogenic aerosols with the Lorenz–Mie method, respectively. The month-long model results are evaluated using the AERONET measurements and ground-based weather observations across China. Results show a significant reduction of the bias of the AOD prediction by up to 0.2 by assimilating AOD retrievals. The improved AOD predictions further positively influence the modeling of the atmospheric thermal-dynamic structures. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of regional 2-m air temperature and 10-m wind speed predictions can be reduced by up to 0.7 K and 0.2 m s−1, respectively. The benefits of AOD DA demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed AOD assimilation scheme and the necessity of incorporating satellite AOD data for improving weather predictions.
气溶胶在云成核和大气辐射过程中起着关键作用,因此准确的气溶胶模拟对数值天气预报至关重要。本文建立了CMA-MESO/CUACE天气预报模式的气溶胶光学深度(AOD) 3D-Var数据同化(DA)方案,同化了风云4b (FY-4B)卫星的AOD反演数据,并通过一个月的后播试验评估了AOD数据对天气预报的影响。建立了基于查找表的AOD观测算子,其中对非球形粉尘采用不变嵌入t矩阵法计算气溶胶光学性质(AOP),对球形人为气溶胶采用Lorenz-Mie法计算AOP。利用AERONET的测量数据和中国各地的地面天气观测对一个月的模式结果进行了评估。结果表明,通过吸收AOD检索,AOD预测偏差显著降低了0.2。改进后的AOD预测进一步对大气热力结构的模拟产生积极影响。区域2米气温和10米风速预报的平均绝对误差(MAE)可分别降低0.7 K和0.2 m s - 1。AOD数据的优势证明了发展的AOD同化方案的有效性和结合卫星AOD数据改善天气预报的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Synoptic flow patterns and key factors controlling rapid intensification onset of tropical cyclones along the China coast 中国沿海热带气旋快速增强的天气流型及关键控制因素
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108795
Xiaomeng Li , Ruifen Zhan , Yuqing Wang , Fengxia Yan
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) near the China coast poses heightened risk because short lead times limit preparedness. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation, and TC best-track data, we apply an obliquely rotated T-mode principal component analysis to classify synoptic environments for RI events and diagnose controlling factors with composites and a Box Difference Index. Four synoptic flow patterns emerge: (1) MSS: combined monsoon trough, subtropical high, and South Asian high; (2) MS: monsoon trough interacting with the subtropical high; (3) SH: subtropical-high-dominated; and (4) MW: monsoon trough with a southward-penetrating midlatitude westerly trough. Across regimes, RI is preceded by radius-of-maximum-wind contraction, increased TC fullness, and more axisymmetric inner-core precipitation. Further analyses show that MSS/MS feature reduced vertical wind shear and stronger low-level vorticity with enhanced precipitation; SH shows the weakest shear and strongest upper-level divergence as the ridge extends westward; MW favors already compact, intense storms that can withstand shear asymmetry tied to the midlatitude westerly trough. These results clarify how large-scale flow modulates RI onset near the China coast and suggest that combining synoptic-pattern recognition with environmental predictors can improve RI guidance for coastal warnings.
中国海岸附近的热带气旋快速增强(RI)带来了更高的风险,因为提前时间短限制了准备工作。利用ERA-Interim再分析、热带降雨测量任务降水和TC最佳轨迹数据,我们应用斜旋转t型主成分分析对RI事件的天气环境进行分类,并利用复合材料和箱差指数诊断控制因素。结果表明:(1)MSS为季风槽-副热带高压-南亚高压组合;(2) MS:季风槽与副热带高压相互作用;(3) SH:副热带-高原为主;(4) MW:季风槽带一个向南穿透的中纬度西风槽。在整个体系中,RI之前是最大风半径收缩,TC丰满度增加,以及更轴对称的内核降水。进一步分析表明,随着降水的增加,垂直风切变减少,低层涡度增强;随着高压脊向西延伸,SH表现为切变最弱、高层辐散最强;MW倾向于已经紧凑、强烈的风暴,这些风暴可以承受与中纬度西风槽相关的切变不对称。这些结果阐明了大尺度流如何调节中国沿海地区RI的发生,并表明将天气模式识别与环境预测相结合可以改善对海岸警报的RI指导。
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引用次数: 0
South Pacific Convergence Zone driven atmospheric river changes over Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica: Observational and CESM2 LENS2 evidence 南太平洋辐合带驱动的南极drning Maud地大气河流变化:观测和CESM2 LENS2证据
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108794
Qingli Wu, Yetang Wang, Zhaosheng Zhai, Min Zhou
Atmospheric river (AR) landfalls profoundly impact Antarctic snowfall accumulation, surface melting and ice shelf calving/collapse. However, comprehensive case studies are still required to better understand AR changes and their underlying mechanisms. Here, we use ERA5 reanalysis and Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) ensembles to examine the spatial distribution and long-term trends of Antarctic ARs during 1979–2022, and also investigate the mechanisms behind it by distinguishing between dynamic and thermodynamic effects. Reanalysis shows a strong increase in annual AR frequency over Dronning Maud Land (DML) in Antarctica during 1979–2022, predominantly driven by dynamical processes. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) strongly modulate AR intensification over DML by enhancing convection and exciting a Rossby wave train, which deepens the Weddell Sea cyclone anomaly and amplifies downstream high-pressure ridges. Fingerprinting experiments with the 50-member CESM2 ensemble confirm the pivotal role of internal Pacific variability in reproducing observed AR trends. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing SPCZ SST variability for understanding the mechanisms driving Antarctic AR changes.
大气河(AR)登陆对南极降雪积累、地表融化和冰架崩解/崩塌产生深远影响。然而,仍然需要全面的案例研究来更好地了解AR的变化及其潜在机制。本文利用ERA5再分析和群落地球系统模式2 (CESM2)整体数据分析了1979-2022年南极ARs的空间分布和长期趋势,并通过区分动力效应和热力学效应探讨了其背后的机制。再分析表明,在1979-2022年期间,南极干旱毛德地(DML)的年AR频率显著增加,主要是由动力过程驱动的。南太平洋辐合带(SPCZ)海温异常通过增强对流和激发罗斯比波列,强烈调节了DML上空的AR增强,从而加深了威德尔海气旋异常,放大了下游高压脊。50个成员CESM2集合的指纹实验证实了太平洋内部变率在再现观测到的AR趋势方面的关键作用。这些结果强调了准确表示spccz海温变率对于理解驱动南极AR变化的机制的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of tropospheric ozone-radiation interactions on summer ozone air quality over eastern China during 2010–2019 2010-2019年对流层臭氧-辐射相互作用对中国东部夏季臭氧空气质量的影响
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108817
Yuqi Guan , Jia Zhu , Xueqing Wang , Lei Chen , Xipeng Jin , Xu Yue , Hong Liao
As an air pollutant and atmospheric oxidant, tropospheric ozone (O3) is also recognized as a significant greenhouse gas and a key radiatively active species in the atmosphere. In this study, we examine the impact of tropospheric ozone–radiation interactions, explicitly quantifying the effects of meteorological feedback (TrO3-Met) and photolysis feedback (TrO3-Phot) on near-surface O3 concentrations over eastern China in June by using the WRF-Chem model embedded with improved process analysis scheme. A ten-year averaged simulation from 2010 to 2019 is conducted to improve the representativeness of quantified contributions of TrO3-Met and TrO3-Phot. Results show that TrO3-Met increases O3 concentrations by an average of +0.1 μg·m−3 over eastern China, with more pronounced effects over the North China Plain (NCP, +0.4 μg·m−3), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD, +0.5 μg·m−3), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD +0.1 μg·m−3), and the enhanced vertical mixing from aloft to the lower level is the dominant process contributing to the elevated O3 levels. TrO3-Phot reduces daytime ozone photolysis rate (J[O1D]) by 34.5% and OH radical concentrations by 21.0%, resulting in 1.0% reduction (−1.0 μg·m−3) in surface O3 over eastern China, with more substantial reductions over the NCP (−7.8%), YRD (−6.4%), and PRD (−4.2%). The intensified chemical removal process is primarily responsible for the overall decline. Further analysis of O3-related gas-phase chemical reactions based on integrated reaction rate reveals that weakened HOx-driven oxidation increases the participation of tropospheric O3 in alternative oxidation pathways, resulting in a negative net O3 production rate, thereby explaining the reduction in surface O3 concentrations.
作为一种大气污染物和大气氧化剂,对流层臭氧(O3)也是公认的重要温室气体和大气中重要的辐射活性物质。本研究利用WRF-Chem模式和改进的过程分析方案,研究了对流层臭氧-辐射相互作用的影响,明确量化了气象反馈(TrO3-Met)和光解反馈(TrO3-Phot)对6月份中国东部近地表O3浓度的影响。为了提高TrO3-Met和TrO3-Phot量化贡献的代表性,进行了2010 - 2019年10年平均模拟。结果表明:TrO3-Met使中国东部地区O3浓度平均增加了+0.1 μg·m−3,其中华北平原(+0.4 μg·m−3)、长江三角洲(+0.5 μg·m−3)和珠江三角洲(+0.1 μg·m−3)的影响更为明显,由高空向低层的垂直混合增强是O3水平升高的主要原因。TrO3-Phot使白天臭氧光解速率(J[O1D])降低34.5%,OH自由基浓度降低21.0%,导致中国东部地区表面O3减少1.0%(−1.0 μg·m−3),其中在NCP(−7.8%)、YRD(−6.4%)和PRD(−4.2%)地区减少幅度更大。强化的化学去除过程是整体下降的主要原因。基于综合反应速率对O3相关气相化学反应的进一步分析表明,hox驱动氧化的减弱增加了对流层O3在其他氧化途径中的参与,导致负的O3净生成速率,从而解释了表面O3浓度的降低。
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Atmospheric Research
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