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Comparative analysis in sensitivity of PM2.5 mass to ammonia and nitrate availability between Hong Kong and Shanghai reveals comparative importance of chemistry and meteorology 香港和上海的PM2.5质量对氨和硝酸盐有效性的敏感性比较分析显示化学和气象的相对重要性
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108846
Zijing Zhang , Min Zhou , Shuhui Zhu , Hongli Wang , Liping Qiao , Dandan Huang , Jian Zhen Yu
Reductions in sulfate over recent years have increased the relative contributions of nitrate and ammonium to PM2.5 in Chinese megacities, shifting the focus of further PM abatement toward these semi-volatile species. This shift in focus makes understanding gas-particle partitioning, which is governed by aerosol pH and temperature, central to predicting their particle-phase contributions. Using hourly measurements of water-soluble inorganic ions (WSIIs) and related gases in Hong Kong and Shanghai, we constrained aerosol pH and aerosol water content (AWC) with ISORROPIA-II and evaluated PM2.5 mass sensitivity to total nitrate (TNO3 = HNO3 + NO3) and total ammonia (TNH3 = NH3 + NH4+). In Hong Kong, sulfate dominated the WSIIs, whereas nitrate was dominant in Shanghai. The seasonally lower temperature (≈ 6–9 °C) in Shanghai, combined with a lower sulfate fraction, contributed to an aerosol pH approximately one unit higher than that in Hong Kong. The combination of higher pH and lower temperature in Shanghai favored particulate nitrate formation (high ε(NO3)), increasing PM sensitivity to TNO3. Our quantitative sensitivity analysis showed that cutting TNO3 in Shanghai was as effective as cutting sulfate for PM2.5 reduction, while TNH3 controls required reductions of >40% to become effective. Consistent with its distinct chemical and meteorological regime, PM2.5 in Hong Kong was co-sensitive to both TNH3 and TNO3, indicating that a synergistic control strategy is optimal. Meteorology modulated these sensitivities primarily by altering aerosol pH and partitioning. Temperature exerted the strongest influence by directly controlling the thermodynamic equilibrium. High relative humidity favored greater aerosol water content, elevating aerosol pH and further promoting nitrate partitioning. Chemical composition, notably the sulfate and nitrate levels, also played a decisive role by setting the initial chemical regime. This contrast demonstrates that the lower temperatures and higher aerosol pH in Shanghai amplifies PM2.5 sensitivity to TNO3, warranting prioritized NOx control. In warmer Hong Kong, the lower aerosol pH and dominant role of sulfate result in co-sensitivity to both precursors, necessitating coordinated abatement. Thus, effective PM2.5 mitigation requires strategies tailored to local chemical-meteorological regimes.
近年来硫酸盐的减少增加了中国大城市中硝酸盐和铵对PM2.5的相对贡献,将进一步减少PM的重点转移到这些半挥发性物种上。这种焦点的转变使得理解由气溶胶pH值和温度控制的气-颗粒分配成为预测其颗粒相贡献的核心。利用香港和上海的水溶性无机离子(WSIIs)和相关气体的每小时测量数据,利用ISORROPIA-II限制气溶胶pH和气溶胶含水量(AWC),并评估PM2.5对总硝酸盐(TNO3 = HNO3 + NO3−)和总氨(TNH3 = NH3 + NH4+)的质量敏感性。在香港,硫酸盐在wsii中占主导地位,而在上海,硝酸盐占主导地位。上海季节性较低的气温(≈6-9°C),加上硫酸盐含量较低,导致气溶胶pH值比香港高约一个单位。上海较高的pH和较低的温度有利于颗粒硝酸盐的形成(高ε(NO3−)),增加PM对TNO3的敏感性。我们的定量敏感性分析表明,在上海减少TNO3与减少硫酸盐一样有效,而TNH3控制需要减少40%才能生效。香港的PM2.5对TNH3和TNO3都是共同敏感的,这与它独特的化学和气象机制相一致,表明协同控制策略是最佳的。气象学主要通过改变气溶胶的pH值和分配来调节这些敏感性。温度的影响最大,直接控制热力学平衡。较高的相对湿度有利于增加气溶胶含水量,提高气溶胶pH值,进一步促进硝酸盐的分配。化学成分,特别是硫酸盐和硝酸盐的水平,也起了决定性的作用,通过设置初始化学制度。这一对比表明,上海较低的温度和较高的气溶胶pH值放大了PM2.5对TNO3的敏感性,需要优先控制NOx。在较暖的香港,较低的气溶胶pH值和硫酸盐的主导作用导致对这两种前体共同敏感,需要协调减排。因此,有效减缓PM2.5需要针对当地化学气象制度量身定制战略。
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引用次数: 0
Dipole patterns of spring precipitation in northeast China: Links to Kara Sea Ice and Eurasian snow cover 中国东北春季降水的偶极子模式:与喀拉海冰和欧亚积雪的联系
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108829
Xinya Shu , Shanshan Wang , Yuanyuan Hu , Yiwei Pang , Hao Wang , Yongli He , Fei Ji , Jianping Huang , Jinxia Zhang
Previous studies rarely consider the regional disparity in precipitation variability beyond the overall consistency in Northeast China (NEC). This study examines the spatial distribution and variability of spring precipitation in NEC, a critical region for grain production that is prone to precipitation-related natural disasters. Our results indicate that approximately 26.7% of spring precipitation events in NEC demonstrate a dipole pattern—characterized by contrasting precipitation distributions within the region—that is significantly influenced by low-pressure systems. Our analysis reveals a strong connection between these precipitation patterns and the preceding winter's sea ice conditions in the Kara Sea. Reduced sea ice leads to a decrease in Ural Mountain snow cover, lower surface albedo, and an increase in upward heat flux, thereby warming the lower atmosphere. This process weakens the meridional temperature gradient, slows the westerly jet stream, and intensifies cyclogenesis over NEC. Moreover, persistent anomalies in sea ice and snow cover drive the eastward movement of Rossby waves, shaping the “− + −” Eurasian teleconnection pattern that intensifies regional low-pressure systems. Consequently, these circulation patterns result in increased precipitation in northern NEC and decreased precipitation in the south. Additionally, numerical experiments using the CAM6.0 and LBM model were conducted to investigate the atmospheric response to sea ice loss and the subsequent dynamical mechanisms affecting precipitation in NEC. Therefore, variations in Kara Sea ice and Eurasia snow cover serve as predictive indicators for NEC's spring precipitation pattern, thereby enhancing our understanding of NEC's precipitation dynamics and providing vital insights for predicting and managing regional natural disasters.
以往的研究很少考虑东北地区降水变率在总体一致性之外的区域差异。本文研究了东北地区春季降水的空间分布和变异,该地区是粮食生产的关键区域,容易发生与降水相关的自然灾害。我们的研究结果表明,东北地区春季降水事件中约有26.7%表现为偶极子模式,其特征是区域内降水分布的差异,这一模式受低压系统的显著影响。我们的分析揭示了这些降水模式与喀拉海冬季海冰状况之间的密切联系。海冰减少导致乌拉尔山积雪减少,地表反照率降低,向上热通量增加,从而使低层大气变暖。这一过程减弱了经向温度梯度,减缓了西风急流,并加强了NEC上空的气旋形成。此外,海冰和积雪的持续异常驱动了罗斯比波的东移,形成了“−+−”欧亚远相关型,强化了区域低压系统。因此,这些环流模式导致东北东部北部降水增加,南部降水减少。此外,利用CAM6.0和LBM模式进行了数值试验,研究了东北地区大气对海冰损失的响应及其影响降水的动力机制。因此,喀拉海冰和欧亚大陆积雪的变化可以作为NEC春季降水模式的预测指标,从而增强我们对NEC降水动态的理解,并为预测和管理区域自然灾害提供重要见解。
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引用次数: 0
The multi-scale insights into summer ozone sources and their impacts on maize yield over the North China Plain 华北平原夏季臭氧源及其对玉米产量影响的多尺度研究
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108833
Huiyun Du , Jie Li , Wenyi Yang , Yihua Mi , Zixi Wang , Xueshun Chen , Zhe Wang , Yele Sun , Zifa Wang
The North China Plain (NCP) faced severe summer ozone pollution in 2023, exacerbating risks to public health and crop yield. Accurate county-level ozone source attribution is essential for precise air quality management, yet conventional city-scale source modeling often overlooks heterogeneity in intra-urban contributions. Here, the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS), coupled with an online tracer-tagging module, was employed to quantify ozone sources and crop impacts, successfully reproducing spatiotemporal ozone variations across the NCP. The results showed that regional transport dominated summer ozone formation; emissions within 200 km contributed 43%–49% to the site-averaged maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) O3, rising to 77%–91% at the 800 km scale. Local priority control zones shifted substantially when evaluated against site-average, site-maximum, and maximum population-weighted metrics. Notably, Beijing's maximum noontime ozone peaks (MNP) differ distinctly from MDA8 O3: local emissions contribute 44% to MNP versus 26% to MDA8 O3, whereas 200–500 km transport dominates MNP in Zhengzhou and 500–800 km transport in Shijiazhuang, reflecting intensified midday photochemistry and precursor transport. Furthermore, AOT40-based assessments estimate 21% relative maize yield losses (RYL) across the NCP, primarily attributable to regional transport. In Beijing, local emissions contribute 22% to maize RYL, with urban sources accounting for 26% of local emission-induced RYL. These findings underscore the need for coordinated regional controls to curb long-range ozone transport alongside localized precision interventions, providing a scientific basis for integrated air quality and agricultural management.
2023年,华北平原面临严重的夏季臭氧污染,加剧了公众健康和作物产量的风险。准确的县级臭氧源归属对于精确的空气质量管理至关重要,但传统的城市尺度臭氧源建模往往忽略了城市内部贡献的异质性。本文采用巢式空气质量预测建模系统(NAQPMS),结合在线示踪标记模块,对臭氧来源和作物影响进行量化,成功再现了NCP地区的臭氧时空变化。结果表明:夏季臭氧形成以区域运输为主;200公里范围内的排放对站点平均最大日8小时平均值(MDA8) O3的贡献为43% ~ 49%,在800公里范围内上升至77% ~ 91%。当根据站点平均、站点最大和最大人口加权指标进行评估时,本地优先级控制区发生了实质性的变化。值得注意的是,北京的最大正午臭氧峰值(MNP)与mda8o3的差异明显:本地排放对MNP的贡献为44%,对mda8o3的贡献为26%,而郑州的MNP主要是200-500公里运输,石家庄的MNP主要是500-800公里运输,反映了正午光化学和前体运输的加剧。此外,基于aot40的评估估计,全国玉米相对产量损失(RYL)达21%,主要归因于区域运输。在北京,本地排放对玉米RYL的贡献为22%,而城市源占本地排放引起的RYL的26%。这些发现强调,除了局部精确干预外,还需要协调区域控制,以遏制远距离臭氧输送,为综合空气质量和农业管理提供科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
Doubling frequency of summer cold surges in recent decades and their impact on East Asian extreme precipitation 近几十年夏季寒潮频率加倍及其对东亚极端降水的影响
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108836
Kwang-Hee Han , Jee-Hoon Jeong , Sung-Ho Woo , Ho-Young Ku , Hayeon Noh , Baek-Min Kim
This research highlights the role of the summertime southward intrusion of the Siberian air mass in intensifying extreme precipitation over East Asia. We identify a recurrent cold-core anticyclone over Siberia termed the Summer Siberian High (SSH) and define its southward expansion as the Summer Cold Surge (SCS). Our analysis reveals that the frequency of SCS events has nearly doubled since the early 2000s. This increase is attributed to a regime shift in the precursor circulation, characterized by the intensification of thermally enhanced, quasi-stationary anticyclones over the Ural Mountains. Dynamically analogous to the winter cold surge, the SCS transports cold and dry air into East Asia. The interaction between this cold intrusion and the warm, moist flow from the Western North Pacific Subtropical High enhances low-level baroclinicity and frontal convergence, thereby intensifying heavy rainfall. These findings underscore the growing climatological importance of high-latitude systems during summer and suggest that understanding SCS dynamics is crucial for predicting extreme precipitation in a warming climate.
该研究强调了夏季西伯利亚气团向南入侵在东亚极端降水加剧中的作用。我们在西伯利亚上空发现了一个周期性的冷核反气旋,称为夏季西伯利亚高压(SSH),并将其向南扩展定义为夏季寒潮(SCS)。我们的分析显示,自21世纪初以来,南海事件的频率几乎翻了一番。这种增加归因于前体环流的状态变化,其特征是乌拉尔山脉上空热增强的准静止反气旋的增强。在动力上类似于冬季冷潮,南海向东亚输送冷干空气。这种冷侵入与来自北太平洋副热带高压的暖湿气流的相互作用增强了低层斜压性和锋面辐合,从而加剧了强降雨。这些发现强调了夏季高纬度系统在气候学上日益增长的重要性,并表明了解南海动力学对于预测气候变暖中的极端降水至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Analyses of water vapor transport during heavy rainfalls associated with binary tropical cyclones Lupit (2109) and Mirinae (2110) from both Eulerian and Lagrangian viewpoints 从欧拉和拉格朗日角度分析双热带气旋Lupit(2109)和Mirinae(2110)暴雨期间的水汽输送
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108820
Zuao Zhang , Jie Cao , Jing Liu , Deqiang Liu
Based on in-situ precipitation observations, ERA5 reanalysis, and GDAS datasets, this study investigates water vapor transport and multiscale convergence characteristics during a typhoon-induced heavy rainfall (TIHR) event impacted by the binary tropical cyclones (BTCs) Lupit (2109) and Mirinae (2110) in eastern Fujian, China, from 5 to 6 August 2021. Under the control of the subtropical high, BTCs move slowly, and the southwest monsoon provides abundant water vapor for both BTCs and the heavy rainfall area. Based on methods from both Eulerian and Lagrangian viewpoints, the multi-scale characteristics of water vapor transport at three different stages during the prolonged maintenance of Lupit are quantitatively analyzed and compared. It is found out that the evolution of water vapor distributions clearly reveals the possible dominant reasons for the intensity and location of remote precipitations. The southwest monsoon serves as the primary moisture source, with its transport pathways strongly modulated by the relative positioning of the BTCs. Lupit plays a dominant role in guiding moisture into the precipitating area, whereas Mirinae, although geographically nearby, is located downstream and contributes limited moisture transport to Lupit and the remote precipitation. Decomposition of water vapor flux divergence shows that that the moisture advection by divergent winds (Qv_S) provides a more accurate indication of rainfall centers than the total water vapor flux divergence (Qv_all) poorly, particularly under the influence of complex terrain and multiple interacting systems. Furthermore, HYSPLIT trajectory analysis confirms that two branches of southwest monsoon water vapor transport contribute 78.74% of the total water vapor, while the direct contribution from Mirinae accounted for only 6.56%. These findings underscore the critical role of cyclone-relative positioning in shaping moisture pathways and remote precipitating intensities, thereby may help to better understand the complicated physical mechanisms of moisture transport in rainstorms impacted by BTCs and other atmospheric systems.
基于现场降水观测、ERA5再分析和GDAS资料,研究了2021年8月5 - 6日福建东部一次受双热带气旋(btc) Lupit(2109)和Mirinae(2110)影响的台风强降雨(TIHR)过程中的水汽输送和多尺度辐合特征。在副热带高压控制下,btc移动缓慢,西南季风为btc和强雨区提供了充足的水汽。基于欧拉和拉格朗日两种方法,定量分析和比较了Lupit长期维护过程中三个不同阶段的水汽输送多尺度特征。研究发现,水汽分布的演变清楚地揭示了遥远降水强度和位置的可能主导原因。西南季风是主要的水汽来源,其输送路径受到btc相对位置的强烈调节。Lupit在引导水汽进入降水区中起主导作用,而Mirinae虽然地理位置较近,但位于下游,对Lupit和远距离降水的水汽输送作用有限。水汽通量散度分解表明,水汽平流发散风(Qv_S)对降水中心的指示精度较总水汽通量散度(Qv_all)差,特别是在复杂地形和多系统相互作用的影响下。HYSPLIT轨迹分析证实,西南季风水汽输送的两个分支贡献了78.74%的水汽,而Mirinae的直接贡献仅占6.56%。这些发现强调了气旋相对定位在形成水汽路径和远程降水强度方面的关键作用,从而可能有助于更好地理解受btc和其他大气系统影响的暴雨中水汽输送的复杂物理机制。
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引用次数: 0
Intercomparison and sensitivity analysis of WRF parameterization schemes for convection-permitting modeling of precipitation distribution along the Yarlung Zangbo River 雅鲁藏布江降水对流模拟WRF参数化方案的对比与敏感性分析
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108827
Qingyun Bian , Shu Wang , Heng Yang , Hui Zheng
Convection-permitting simulations offer a promising approach for improving precipitation estimation in complex terrain, yet their added value and sensitivity to parameterizations remain poorly understood in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin. This study systematically intercompares fifteen 3-km WRF simulations to examine how parameterization choices (radiation, cloud microphysics, planetary boundary layer, shallow convection, and orographic drag) influence precipitation characteristics critical for hydrological applications: intensity, duration, frequency (IDF), maxima, and diurnal cycles. Results indicate that convection-permitting simulations add clear value by mitigating the “drizzle bias” typical of coarse-resolution models and by producing higher-intensity, shorter-duration events that better reflect the region's convective nature. While higher resolution improves event structure, the accuracy of mean precipitation depends strongly on parameterization. Sensitivity analysis reveals that cloud microphysics schemes primarily govern intensity, duration, and the timing of the diurnal peak, with the Thompson scheme best reproducing the nighttime peak observed in near-normal years. The planetary boundary layer scheme dominates precipitation frequency, with the MYNN2 scheme demonstrating robust performance across interannual variability. Comparisons with a convolutional neural network-based product and coarse-resolution reanalyses indicate that dynamical downscaling is more robust across interannual variability (dry versus wet years). Despite substantial uncertainty among satellite observational products, these findings show that optimized convection-permitting models capture realistic valley-scale gradients and diurnal propagation, providing essential guidance for hydrological modeling in complex terrain.
允许对流的模拟为改善复杂地形下的降水估计提供了一种有希望的方法,但其在雅鲁藏布江流域的附加价值和对参数化的敏感性仍然知之甚少。本研究系统地比较了15个3公里WRF模拟,以研究参数化选择(辐射、云微物理、行星边界层、浅对流和地形阻力)如何影响水文应用中至关重要的降水特征:强度、持续时间、频率(IDF)、最大值和日循环。结果表明,允许对流的模拟通过减轻“毛毛雨偏差”(典型的粗分辨率模式)和产生更高强度、更短持续时间的事件来更好地反映该地区的对流性质,从而增加了明显的价值。虽然较高的分辨率改善了事件结构,但平均降水的精度很大程度上取决于参数化。敏感性分析表明,云微物理方案主要控制昼夜峰值的强度、持续时间和时间,其中汤普森方案最能再现接近正常年份观测到的夜间峰值。行星边界层方案主导降水频率,MYNN2方案在年际变率上表现出稳健的性能。与基于卷积神经网络的产品和粗分辨率再分析的比较表明,动态降尺度在年际变率(干湿年)中更加稳健。尽管卫星观测产品存在很大的不确定性,但这些发现表明,优化的对流允许模型可以捕获真实的山谷尺度梯度和日传播,为复杂地形的水文建模提供了必要的指导。
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引用次数: 0
Drought as a risk amplifier: The intensifying regime of compound dry-hot events in China 干旱作为风险放大器:中国复合干热事件的强化机制
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108825
Pengcheng Xu , Dong Wang , Yuankun Wang , Vijay P. Singh , Jianchun Qiu , Xiaolei Fu
Compound dry-hot events (CDH) are escalating climate hazards in China. This study examines spatiotemporal changes in the frequency, duration, dryness severity, and extreme heat characteristics of CDH using high-resolution daily data, including the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and daily maximum temperatures, from 1962 to 2022. Using high-resolution daily data (1962–2022) and a conditional Copula-based framework to calculate a risk amplification ratio (RAR), we analyzed daily CDH events nationwide. Our key results show: (1) a significant increase in the frequency and spatial extent of drought-related heatwaves, especially in recent decades; (2) intensifying CDH events, with annual durations extending by 1.8–3.6 days and severity rising by 2–9 units per event; and (3) drought amplifying concurrent heatwave risks by 3–7 times across most regions, which underscored regionally amplified impacts, particularly in China's arid regions, largely driven by anthropogenic climate change. The analysis, further validated by employing two distinct data products, indicates that background aridity critically modulates both CDH spatiotemporal characteristics and the magnitude of drought-induced heatwave risk amplification. By leveraging daily-scale data and a novel probabilistic framework, this research enhances the mechanistic understanding of compound event dynamics and underscores the necessity of accounting for drought as a key triggering factor in climate risk assessments.
复合干热事件是中国日益严重的气候灾害。本研究利用高分辨率日数据,包括标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI)和日最高气温,分析了1962年至2022年CDH的频率、持续时间、干燥严重程度和极端热特征的时空变化。使用高分辨率的每日数据(1962-2022)和基于条件copula的框架来计算风险放大比(RAR),我们分析了全国范围内的每日CDH事件。研究结果表明:(1)近几十年来,干旱相关热浪发生的频率和空间范围显著增加;(2) CDH事件不断加剧,年持续时间延长1.8 ~ 3.6 d,严重程度上升2 ~ 9个单位/次;(3)干旱将大部分地区的热浪风险放大了3 - 7倍,突出了人为气候变化对区域影响的放大,特别是在中国干旱地区。采用两种不同的数据产品进一步验证了该分析,表明背景干旱对CDH时空特征和干旱引起的热浪风险放大程度都有重要调节作用。通过利用日尺度数据和一个新的概率框架,本研究增强了对复合事件动力学的机制理解,并强调了在气候风险评估中将干旱作为关键触发因素考虑在内的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Coupled influence of Western Pacific moisture anomalies and mid-tropospheric humidity on October precipitation in Yunnan Province Southwest China 西太平洋水汽异常和对流层中湿度对云南10月降水的耦合影响
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108830
Wen-Jun Sun , Zhen-Peng Tao , Zi-Yang Zhang , Tian-Qing Lan , Taohui Li , Peng Zi , Jian Zhang , Yao Wu , Ming-Qiang Liang , Chao-Jun Chen , Yuan-Yuan Mu , Jun-Yun Li , Ting-Yong Li
In the Asian monsoon region, October marks the transition from the wet to the dry season, during which precipitation variability plays a crucial role in regional water management and ecological stability. In recent decades, intensified climate warming has led to more frequent extreme precipitation events across Southwest China, posing substantial challenges to agriculture and economic development in the rain-fed Yunnan Province. Using long-term surface observations and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1961 to 2024, this study applies statistical and diagnostic analyses to identify the dominant physical drivers of October precipitation variability in Yunnan. The results show that the Western Tropical Pacific Moisture Anomaly Index (WTPAI) and mid-tropospheric relative humidity (RH) jointly regulate interannual precipitation changes. The positive influence of WTPAI on precipitation is subject to a humidity threshold near 49%, indicating that moisture anomalies amplify precipitation only under sufficiently moist conditions. Furthermore, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) primarily modulates WTPAI through its ridge position, linking large-scale circulation to regional moisture supply. Based on these findings, a “humidity threshold plus regional moisture anomaly” framework is proposed to describe the synergistic amplification mechanism between humidity and moisture transport. This framework clarifies the dynamic–thermodynamic coupling processes controlling autumn precipitation over Yunnan and provides a scientific basis for improved precipitation attribution, prediction, and water resource management under a warming climate.
在亚洲季风区,10月标志着由湿季向旱季的过渡,在此期间,降水变率对区域水资源管理和生态稳定起着至关重要的作用。近几十年来,气候变暖加剧导致中国西南地区极端降水事件更加频繁,给雨养省份云南的农业和经济发展带来了重大挑战。利用1961 ~ 2024年的长期地面观测资料和ERA5再分析资料,应用统计和诊断分析方法确定了云南10月降水变率的主要物理驱动因素。结果表明,西热带太平洋水汽异常指数(WTPAI)和对流层中相对湿度(RH)共同调节了降水的年际变化。WTPAI对降水的正向影响取决于49%附近的湿度阈值,表明只有在足够湿润的条件下,湿度异常才会放大降水。此外,西太平洋副热带高压(WPSH)主要通过其脊位调节西太平洋副热带气旋,将大尺度环流与区域水汽供应联系起来。在此基础上,提出了“湿度阈值+区域湿度异常”框架来描述湿度与水分输送的协同放大机制。该框架阐明了控制云南秋季降水的动力-热力耦合过程,为气候变暖条件下改进降水归因、预报和水资源管理提供了科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of model performance in simulating extreme precipitation indices over eastern China: A comparison of CORDEX and NEX-GDDP models 模拟中国东部极端降水指数的模式性能评价:CORDEX和NEX-GDDP模式的比较
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108760
Honglin Yu , Shuping Li , Siyi Wang , Wenping He
Coarse-resolution global climate models (GCMs) have limited capability to simulate mean and extreme precipitation over eastern China, thus requiring the use of downscaling techniques to improve model performance. This study evaluates two types of downscaled climate models: regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment Phase II for East Asia (CORDEX), which use a dynamical downscaling approach, and the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP, NEX), which apply a statistical downscaling method. CORDEX and NEX models are driven by CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCM outputs, respectively. For all precipitation indices (PRCPTOT, R95p, R99p, Rx5day, CWD, and SDII), the CORDEX ensemble mean marginally improves their representation south of 30°N compared to CMIP5. Among the four model groups, NEX models achieve the highest skill in reproducing PRCPTOT over eastern China. However, CORDEX models outperform NEX models in simulating extreme precipitation events, with NEX models systematically underestimating extremes, indicating that dynamical downscaling is generally more effective than statistical downscaling for capturing extreme precipitation. Both CORDEX and NEX models successfully capture the timing and peak of the annual precipitation cycle over eastern China, despite notable inter-model discrepancies. These results provide a comprehensive reference for selecting appropriate models to project mean and extreme precipitation over eastern China.
粗分辨率全球气候模式(GCMs)模拟中国东部平均和极端降水的能力有限,因此需要使用降尺度技术来提高模式的性能。本研究评估了两种类型的降尺度气候模式:采用动态降尺度方法的东亚协调区域降尺度实验第二阶段(CORDEX)的区域气候模式(RCMs),以及采用统计降尺度方法的NASA地球交换全球每日降尺度预估(NEX- gddp, NEX)。CORDEX和NEX模型分别由CMIP5和CMIP6 GCM输出驱动。对于所有降水指数(PRCPTOT、R95p、R99p、Rx5day、CWD和SDII), CORDEX集合平均在30°N以南的代表性较CMIP5略有提高。在四个模式组中,NEX模式对中国东部地区PRCPTOT的再现能力最高。然而,CORDEX模型在模拟极端降水事件方面优于NEX模型,NEX模型系统地低估了极端事件,这表明在捕获极端降水方面,动态降尺度通常比统计降尺度更有效。CORDEX和NEX模式都成功地捕获了中国东部年降水周期的时间和峰值,尽管模式间存在显著差异。这些结果为选择合适的模式预测中国东部地区的平均和极端降水提供了综合参考。
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引用次数: 0
How Saharan dust and elevated convection can produce negative dipole charge structure ? 撒哈拉沙尘和高对流如何产生负偶极子电荷结构?
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108783
Gabriel Hausknost , Sylvain Coquillat , Dominique Lambert , Stéphane Pédeboy , Pierre de Guibert , Eric Gonneau
The LMA network SAETTA has observed thunderstorms from 2014 to 2023. During this period, 54 thunderstorm days with negative dipole charge structures were observed during African dust flow events over the Corsica island, mainly during the warm season. The spatial and temporal distribution of thunderstorm days provided by SAETTA data shows nocturnal events with negative dipole charge structure, without preferential regions (even on land and on sea), while classic thunderstorms over Corsica with normal tripole charge structure occur mainly over mountains in the daytime. In the case of negative dipole events, METEORAGE data show more intense and frequent +CG lightning flashes than classical thunderstorms, and 89.4% of -IC lightning flashes. Furthermore, ERA-5,reanalysis data and radiosonde data exhibit dry and warm low layers, with a temperature inversion near the surface, forcing the triggering of elevated convection. This observation could be a consequence of the radiative impact of Saharan dust. This study shows no evidence for the microphysical impact of aerosols, i.e. the multiplication of ice crystals despite supercooled water droplets. Meteorological data also exhibit intense wind speeds associated with negative dipole thunderstorms.
LMA网络SAETTA观测了2014年至2023年的雷暴。在此期间,科西嘉岛上的非洲沙尘事件共观测到54个具有负偶极子电荷结构的雷暴日,主要发生在暖季。SAETTA数据提供的雷暴日时空分布显示夜间事件具有负偶极子电荷结构,没有优先区域(即使在陆地和海上),而典型的科西嘉雷暴具有正常的三极子电荷结构,主要发生在白天的山区。在负偶极子事件的情况下,METEORAGE数据显示+CG闪电比经典雷暴更强烈和频繁,-IC闪电占89.4%。此外,ERA-5、再分析数据和探空数据显示低层干燥和温暖,地表附近有逆温,迫使触发高架对流。这一观测结果可能是撒哈拉沙尘辐射影响的结果。这项研究没有显示气溶胶的微物理影响的证据,即尽管有过冷的水滴,冰晶的增殖。气象资料也显示出与负偶极雷暴有关的强风速。
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引用次数: 0
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Atmospheric Research
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