Atmospheric Research最新文献

{"title":"Broadband VHF lightning radiation sources localization by ESPRIT algorithm","authors":"Shuangjiang Du ,&nbsp;Lihua Shi ,&nbsp;Shi Qiu,&nbsp;Yantao Duan,&nbsp;Yun Li,&nbsp;Zheng Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107812","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107812","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fast and fine radiation source localization algorithm is of vital importance to lightning warning and protection. Current high-accuracy localization techniques, such as the time reversal technique (TR) and the multiple signal classification (MUSIC), are based on traversal search mechanism, which takes a long time. In this paper, the estimation of signal parameters via rotational invariance technique (ESPRIT) is applied to lightning radiation source localization, and the direction of arrival (DOA) can be directly solved through the covariance matrix, so it is very efficient. For the broadband VHF signal, the incoherent signal method (ISM) is combined with ESPRIT. Two classical structures of uniform <span><math><mi>L</mi></math></span>-shaped array and uniform circular array are studied and applied to ESPRIT algorithm. As for the uniform circular array, the fourth order cumulant matrix is constructed to find the translation invariant subarrays. To unwrap the phase ambiguity caused by the calculated phase angle of ESPRIT algorithm, the total least difference of slope (TLDS) principle is proposed. The proposed ESPRIT algorithm is more than 1400 times faster than MUSIC while its localization accuracy is still pretty high, which is able to detect the radiation source under -8 dB signal to noise ratio (SNR) according to the result of numerical simulations, and can map continuous and fine lightning development channel in the experiments on the measured lightning data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107812"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effect of complex orography on numerical simulations of a downburst event in Spain","authors":"J. Díaz-Fernández ,&nbsp;C. Calvo-Sancho ,&nbsp;P. Bolgiani ,&nbsp;M. Sastre ,&nbsp;M. López-Reyes ,&nbsp;S. Fernández-González ,&nbsp;M.L. Martín","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107821","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107821","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A downburst is a localized and intense downdraft of air that descends quickly from the middle troposphere and reaches the Earth's surface. It is frequently originated by a thunderstorm or a supercell. Downburst winds can cause significant damage to buildings, infrastructure, and pose a great threat to aviation traffic. On July 1, 2018, many supercells were spotted near the Zaragoza Airport (Spain), and at least one of them generated a downburst that affected the airport, causing significant damage in the surrounding area. This event is here simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) numerical weather prediction model. Three different WRF-ARW orography experiments are carried out to investigate if the region's complex orography has an important role in supercell and downburst development over the research area. One of the three experiments uses the default orography as control; another one uses a 90 % smoothed orography, and the third experiment is configured with a high-resolution dataset. Several atmospheric and convective variables are compared for each orography experiment. Results show that MUCAPE is clearly higher when the orography complexity is reduced. The smoothing process leads to a more uniform wind flow, contributing to the formation of numerous supercells. However, supercells channel through valleys and mountains in the control and high-resolution orography experiments, where the surface wind divergences are uniquely reproduced, and the highest reflectivity values are observed. Moisture advection from the Mediterranean Sea is essential in the process, reaching more deeply into the study region in the smoothed orography experiment due to the lack of orographic barriers. Orography affects dynamic and thermodynamic features, which have considerable effects on the formation and development of downbursts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107821"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142723846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An investigation into the dominant cloud microphysical processes in extreme-rain-producing storms occurred on 7 May 2017 over Southern China","authors":"Jinfang Yin ,&nbsp;Liyan Wang ,&nbsp;Feng Li ,&nbsp;Haoran Li ,&nbsp;Zhiming Zhou ,&nbsp;Hong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107820","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107820","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents an analysis of the dominant cloud microphysical processes of the extreme rainfall event on 7 May 2017, using a series of convective-permitting simulations. Special emphasis is placed on the microphysical processes of two extreme-rain-producing storms, yielding hourly rainfalls exceeding 120 mm. For the Huashan (HS) storm, a large amount of cloud water is produced through condensation (PRW_VCD) within the storm, and significant rainwater is generated by the collection of cloud water by raindrops (PRR_RCW). As for the Jiulong (JL) storm, warm rain microphysical processes are as same as the HS storm. Additionally, considerable rainwater is produced via the collection of graupel by raindrops (PRR_RCG), with contributions also coming from the melting of graupel (PRR_GML). It is noteworthy that there is slight evaporation of raindrops (PRV_REV) in both storms. To verify the dominant cloud microphysical processes of the extreme rainfalls, an experiment has been conducted using a simple ice microphysics scheme that covers the aforementioned dominant microphysical processes. The results indicate that extreme rainfalls are well replicated with the simple microphysics scheme, showing good agreement in spatial distribution and temporal evolution with observations and the control run. The experiment confirms largely the dominant cloud microphysical processes responsible for the extreme rainfall. Based on the results, we propose that placing special emphasis on the treatment of snow terminal velocity in the Thompson scheme would improve the performance of the scheme for heavy rainfall simulation. The findings gained here may help further understand cloud microphysical processes for localized extreme rainfall over southern China, and provide guidance for the improvement of cloud microphysics schemes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107820"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term distribution and evolution trends of absorption aerosol optical depth with different chemical components in global and typical regions","authors":"Hujia Zhao ,&nbsp;Ke Gui ,&nbsp;Yangfeng Wang ,&nbsp;Yaqiang Wang ,&nbsp;Hong Wang ,&nbsp;Yu Zheng ,&nbsp;Lei Li ,&nbsp;Xiaofang Jia ,&nbsp;Huizheng Che ,&nbsp;Xiaoye Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107819","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107819","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Different types of atmospheric aerosols have different climatic effects. In this study, MERRA-2 reanalysis data of absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) products at 550 nm from 1980 to 2018 were used to analyse the long-term distribution characteristics and evolution trends of the AAOD of different chemical components globally and in 12 typical study areas. We also analysed the seasonal and interannual monthly variations of the different chemical components of AAOD. In the 40-year study period from 1980 to 2018, the maximum value of total AAOD (TAAOD) appears in the southern regions of SD (Sahara Desert), CSA (Central Southern Africa), NC (Northern China), SC (Southern China), and SEA (Southeastern Asia) (&gt; 0.040). The highest value of dust AAOD (DUAAOD) is in SD (0.030–0.040), and the contribution rate reaches 80 %; while in SC, SEA, and AMZ, black carbon AAOD (BCAAOD) contributes 80 %–90 %. The high-value area of DUAAOD in SD-ME-NWC expands in spring, and the dust belt formed in summer results in a larger DUAAOD (&gt; 0.050). The proportion of BCAAOD in autumn and winter is larger in the dust belt, which is another major contributor to AAOD in this region. The monthly distributions of TAAOD in SEA, CSA, NC, and AMZ are mainly affected by biomass combustion, while the DU in ME (Middle East), NWC (Northwestern China), and SD has a greater effect on AAOD, and the TAAOD in NEA (Northeastern Asia), WEU (Western Europe), EUS (Eastern United States), SC, SA (Southern Asia), and other regions is mainly affected by both DU and BC + OC (in which OC refers to organic carbon). The interannual variations of BCAAOD and OCAAOD tend to be flat before 2000, and then show an increasing trend. BCAAOD has the largest relative contribution (at about 60 %), followed by DUAAOD (at about 30 %), and then OCAAOD has the smallest contribution (at less than 10 %). From a global perspective, AAOD shows different increasing trends during 1980–2018, 1980–1992, and 1993–2005, and decreases or even completely reverses during 2006–2018. This paper provides the distribution characteristics and evolutionary trends of different chemical components of AAOD, which can improve scientific understanding of global- and regional-scale aerosols and their climatic effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107819"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Atmospheric CO2 column concentration over Iran: Emissions, GOSAT satellite observations, and WRF-GHG model simulations","authors":"Samira Karbasi ,&nbsp;Amir Hossein Abdi ,&nbsp;Hossein Malakooti ,&nbsp;Jose Antonio Garcia Orza","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107818","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107818","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Regarding global warming and climate change, carbon dioxide (CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;) is one of the most important greenhouse gases. Simulating CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; gas at hourly/weekly time intervals and desired vertical resolution is challenging due to the coarse horizontal resolution of global models. In this study, both column-averaged CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; mixing ratio (XCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;) and vertical cross sections of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; mixing ratio were simulated by the Weather Research and Forecast Green House gas (WRF-GHG) model at spatial resolutions of 30 and 10 km for the Middle East region as the first domain, and Iran as the second domain. Simulations consider the primary CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; sources (anthropogenic, biogenic, fire, and oceanic) and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) dataset. XCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; retrieved from GOSAT satellite observations was employed to evaluate the simulation results of the column-averaged CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations in February and August 2010. The evaluations showed that the spatiotemporal variability of meteorological variables was well simulated by WRF-GHG with correlation coefficients r of 0.86–0.92, 0.67–0.75, and 0.76–0.82 for temperature, wind, and relative humidity, respectively, during February and August 2010. The evaluations also indicated that the WRF-GHG simulations outperformed the global model TM3, with mean bias error values of − 0.79 and 0.45 PPMV for WRF-GHG in February and August, respectively. The percentage contribution of net CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions from human activities in Iran was calculated as (38.33 % and 23.70 %) of the total emissions, respectively, with values of 4.4 and 0.85 kg/km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; in each month. The net emissions contributions of biogenic, fire, and oceanic sources were evaluated in February and August, with biogenic emissions contributing (31.901 % and 27.66 %), biogenic absorption contributing (24.07 % and 46.63 %), fire emissions contributing (5.7 % and 2.064 %), and oceanic emissions contributing (3.23 × 10&lt;sup&gt;−6&lt;/sup&gt; % and 2.23 × 10&lt;sup&gt;−6&lt;/sup&gt; %). Large-scale circulations and biogenic activity are responsible for the major features of the spatial and seasonal distribution of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; in the area. In February, column mixing ratios are higher in more northern latitudes; in August, they are higher to the south. Furthermore, the simulated vertical cross sections show high CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; mixing ratios in the mid-lower troposphere and northerly/northeasterly advection in February; the vertical profile is inverted in August with high concentrations in the lower stratosphere associated with southwesterly advection. However, the interaction between the synoptic and sub-synoptic features with the topography determines the precise dispersion and distribution of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;. Despite the negligible emissions in central and eastern Iran, these factors play an important role in the observed concentrations in February and August. In August, the areas between the","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107818"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigation of the meteorological conditions, dynamical, and microphysical characteristics of convective precipitation over the rainfall center of South China in the Pre-summer Rainy Season","authors":"Haoyang Wei ,&nbsp;Min Wen ,&nbsp;Zheng Ruan ,&nbsp;Haoran Li ,&nbsp;Xiaohui Shi ,&nbsp;Ziheng Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107823","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107823","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the meteorological conditions, dynamics, and microphysical characteristics of convective precipitation in Longmen, South China, during the Pre-summer Rainy Season (PRS) from 2016 to 2020, focusing on the influence of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset. Utilizing the ERA5 reanalysis dataset and observations from the C-band Vertical Pointing Radar (VPR<img>C) and Two-Dimensional Video Disdrometer (2DVD), we analyzed 4560 Convective Precipitation Features (CPFs) and classified them into shallow convection (SC), middle convection (MC), and deep convection (DC) based on the maximum height of 35 dBZ echo-top. Key findings reveal that the onset of the SCSSM significantly enhances convective rainfall. Specifically, it increases the proportion of convective rainfall by 11 % and intensifies rainfall duration and intensity by approximately 2.2 times. Enhanced moisture convergence and stronger convective instability drive these changes. The microphysical processes are distinct across different CPF types. SCs display warm-rain processes, MCs indicate mixed-phase processes, and DCs are associated with ice-phase processes. Each type contributes uniquely to precipitation characteristics, vertical reflectivity profiles, and raindrop size distributions. These insights emphasize the SCSSM's critical role in regional precipitation patterns and provide valuable insights into the underlying processes affecting convective systems in South China, ultimately contributing to improving the capabilities of prediction in atmospheric research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107823"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142757011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards an understanding of uncertainties in the Lagrangian analysis of moisture sources for tropical cyclone precipitation through a study case","authors":"Albenis Pérez-Alarcón ,&nbsp;Marta Vázquez ,&nbsp;Ricardo M. Trigo ,&nbsp;Raquel Nieto ,&nbsp;Luis Gimeno","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107822","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107822","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the increasing number of atmospheric moisture tracking tools, their validation is challenging due to the lack of observations. This work contributes to a better understanding of uncertainties in the moisture sources analysis for the precipitation of tropical cyclones (TCs) by assessing eight combinations of threshold values in tracking methods based on the Lagrangian water budget equation. We selected as a study case Hurricane Ida that formed in the North Atlantic basin in late August 2021 and extracted the air parcel trajectories from the global outputs of the Lagrangian FLEXPART model. Results indicate that the choice of relative humidity (RH) threshold for filtering precipitating parcels has a noticeable impact on the Lagrangian precipitation estimates. In addition, methods applying the atmospheric boundary layer restriction produce a weaker moisture source pattern than those accounting for moisture uptakes in the whole atmospheric column. In particular, methods imposing an RH restriction along the air parcel trajectories to filter out noise in moisture losses outperform the others, providing more reliable moisture source contributions. We also introduced a simple bias correction approach that further improves the reliability of moisture source representation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107822"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142723847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional differences in the effects of atmospheric moisture residence time on precipitation isotopes over Eurasia","authors":"Qinqin Wang ,&nbsp;Yuwei Liu ,&nbsp;Guofeng Zhu ,&nbsp;Siyu Lu ,&nbsp;Longhu Chen ,&nbsp;Yinying Jiao ,&nbsp;Wenmin Li ,&nbsp;Wentong Li ,&nbsp;Yuhao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107813","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107813","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Regional variations in atmospheric moisture residence time (RT) highlight the need to obtain independent observation indexes to constrain different model-based estimates. Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen naturally exist in water molecules that can provide such observational constraints. We analyzed the relationship between RT and precipitation isotopes (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) across different climatic zones in Eurasia from 1980 to 2020. Our analysis reveals that: (1) Both precipitation isotopes and RT showed significant increasing trends during 1980–2020. The increase in RT corresponds to weakened net isotopic distillation over Eurasia, suggesting reduced atmospheric circulation intensity under warming conditions. (2) The spatial patterns of RT and precipitation isotopes vary significantly among different moisture source regions, reflecting distinct moisture transport and precipitation formation processes. (3) On long-term scales, RT generally shows positive correlations with precipitation isotopes, except in plateau regions. The RT-δ¹⁸O relationship exhibits latitude-dependent variations, with similar slopes in regions sharing common moisture sources. These findings enhance our understanding of the long-term controls on precipitation isotopic composition and atmospheric moisture cycling patterns across Eurasia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107813"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142723845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sensitivity of dust event simulation to dust emission schemes and meteorological forcing datasets in the Belt and Road regions: A case study","authors":"Naidi Ren ,&nbsp;Tie Dai ,&nbsp;Yueming Cheng ,&nbsp;Guangyu Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107817","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107817","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the sensitivity of dust event simulation to dust emission schemes and meteorological forcing datasets in the Belt and Road regions, which we divided into three dust-affected regions: North Africa, the Middle East-central Asia, and East Asia. The Weather Research and Forecasting model with online coupled chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to simulate a dust event in the Belt and Road regions from June 15 to 20, 2016. Nine experiments were conducted using three sets of dust emission schemes (GOCART, Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport; AFWA, Air Force Weather Agency; UoC, University of Cologne) and three meteorological forcing datasets (NCEP FNL, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final; ECMWF ERA5, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5; JMA JRA-55, Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis). The accuracy and applicability of the schemes and datasets were verified and evaluated by the global atmospheric reanalysis data, Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), as well as observed data from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and CloudAerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). The main conclusions drawn from the simulation of this dust event are as follows: In the Middle East-central Asia and East Asia, the uncertainty in the dust emission schemes is greater than that in the meteorological forcing datasets, while in North Africa, they are comparable. Among the schemes, GOCART is generally more applicable across the three dust-affected regions compared to AFWA and UoC. Additionally, JRA-55 shows a slight advantage over FNL and ERA5 in North Africa and the Middle East-central Asia. Significant differences in the spatial distribution of dust emissions are observed among experiments using different dust emission schemes, whereas slight differences are noted among those with different meteorological forcing datasets; notably, dust optical depth (DOD) distribution closely aligns with dust emissions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107817"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The modulation effect of the Victoria mode on the uncertainty connection between ENSO and winter European surface air temperature","authors":"Kai Ji ,&nbsp;Ruiqiang Ding ,&nbsp;Linlu Mei","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107815","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107815","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has widespread impacts on the climate around the Pacific and North America, the relationship between ENSO and winter surface air temperature (SAT) in Europe is less well established. This study investigates the modulation effects of the spring Victoria mode (VM) on the weak ENSO–SAT connection in the following winter based on reanalysis data and numerical experiments. It is shown that the connection between ENSO and the winter SAT in central Europe has a significant and positive (negative) correlation during the positive (negative) VM phase. Further analysis shows that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with ENSO play an important role in the VM modulation. For the positive VM phase, ENSO combined with the SST warming mode in the western North Pacific induces the East Atlantic teleconnection pattern, which strengthens the anomalous warm advection and leads to the positive SAT anomalies in central Europe. In contrast, for the negative VM phase, ENSO could trigger a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern through intermediate SST anomalies in the tropical North Pacific, favoring the formation of the negative central European SAT anomalies. The remarkable modulation effect of the VM on the connection between ENSO and winter central European SAT is further verified through forced experiments using an atmospheric model. This could provide hope that ENSO can make predictions for the winter SAT in central Europe, considering the phase of the preceding spring VM.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"314 ","pages":"Article 107815"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142723838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}