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Impact of orography on extreme rainfall event in Thoothukudi, Tamil Nadu: Role of lateral and cross-barrier mountain effects 地形对泰米尔纳德邦Thoothukudi极端降雨事件的影响:横向和跨障山效应的作用
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108738
K.L. Arunkumar , Yesubabu Viswanadhapalli , C.V. Srinivas , Naresh Krishna Vissa , J. Solomon Ivan
On 17 December 2023, an exceptionally heavy rainfall event occurred at the southeastern tip of Tamil Nadu, with Kayalpattinam of Thoothukudi district recording 94 cm of rainfall in a single day, which caused widespread flooding in the region and its neighbourhood. This event was triggered by a low-pressure (LP) system moving northwestward through a complex terrain setting, bordered by the Western Ghats (WG) to the west and the Sri Lankan Mountains to the east. This synoptic event presents a rare opportunity to examine lateral and cross-barrier topographic influences on extreme rainfall. Three high-resolution cloud-resolving simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the role of mountains in modulating this localised extreme rainfall. The study carried out (1) a control simulation (CNTRL) with natural terrain, (2) a simulation without the Sri Lankan Mountain topography (NTSLI), and (3) a simulation with removing mountains over the entire domain (NTWDOM). The CNTRL simulation accurately reproduced the features of the observed rainfall and indicated an extension of the LP system towards the east coast, leading to a sustained localised moisture convergence and deep convection. Further, the simulation highlighted the formation of a cold pool in the windward regions of the WG due to the evaporative cooling and effective orographic blocking during the event. The NTSLI simulated eastward extension of LP system with its centre shifted in southwestward compared to the CNTRL and exhibited relatively stronger easterly winds in the absence of the Sri Lankan Mountains. The enhanced easterlies produced multiple moisture convergence zones, thereby altering convective processes and leading to reduced rainfall over the Tamil Nadu coast. The simulation indicated a southwestward shift in the rainfall pattern. In contrast, the NTWDOM simulation, with no orographic barriers, inhibited cold pool formation, dispersed moisture convergence, and resulted in weaker convection, as well as a westward displacement of rainfall towards the Arabian Sea. Our results clearly highlight that, apart from cross-orographic barriers, lateral orographic features also play a critical role in modulating the location, intensity, spatial distribution, and evolution of extreme rainfall events by influencing synoptic systems, moisture dynamics, and convective processes.
2023年12月17日,泰米尔纳德邦东南端发生了异常强降雨事件,Thoothukudi区的Kayalpattinam一天降雨量达到94厘米,导致该地区及其周边地区发生大范围洪水。这一事件是由一个向西北移动的低压(LP)系统引发的,该系统穿过了一个复杂的地形环境,西部与西高止山脉(WG)接壤,东部与斯里兰卡山脉接壤。这个天气事件提供了一个难得的机会来研究侧向和跨障地形对极端降雨的影响。使用天气研究与预报(WRF)模式进行了三次高分辨率的云分辨模拟,以调查山脉在调节局地极端降雨中的作用。研究进行了(1)含自然地形的控制模拟(CNTRL)、(2)不含斯里兰卡山地地形的模拟(NTSLI)和(3)全域去除山地的模拟(NTWDOM)。中央控制中心的模拟准确地再现了观测到的降雨特征,并表明低压系统向东海岸延伸,导致持续的局地水汽辐合和深层对流。此外,模拟还突出显示,由于事件期间的蒸发冷却和有效的地形阻塞,在WG的迎风区域形成了一个冷池。与CNTRL相比,NTSLI模拟了LP系统的东向扩展,其中心向西南移动,在没有斯里兰卡山脉的情况下表现出相对较强的东风。增强的东风产生了多个水汽辐合带,从而改变了对流过程,导致泰米尔纳德邦海岸的降雨量减少。模拟结果表明降水模式向西南方向移动。相比之下,NTWDOM模拟由于没有地形障碍,抑制了冷池的形成,分散了水汽辐合,导致对流减弱,降雨向西移向阿拉伯海。我们的研究结果清楚地表明,除了跨地形障碍外,横向地形特征还通过影响天气系统、湿度动力学和对流过程,在调节极端降雨事件的位置、强度、空间分布和演变中发挥了关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperature and Mixed Layer Depth 热带气旋强度对海表温度和混合层深度的敏感性
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108726
Evan David Wellmeyer , Antonio Ricchi , Rossella Ferretti
Rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most dangerous and least predictable weather systems. In this work, we focus on two intense Atlantic TCs that showed rapid intensification (RI, defined as at least 36 hPa deepening in 24 h) and which impacted the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This study focused on how sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean mixed-layer depth (OMLD) modulate the rapid intensification (RI) and maximum intensity (MI) of two hurricanes, Wilma and Rita (2005). Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a simplified 1D ocean model, 20 simulations were performed to systematically vary SST (±1–3 °C) and OMLD (doubled or halved), as well as remove observed SST anomalies (SSTA). Results show that SST dominates TC intensity changes from around 15–20 hPa °C−1, and correspondingly higher deepening rates. Warmer simulations also exhibit an increased energy transfer from the ocean, supporting increased near-surface equivalent potential temperature, a more symmetrical wind field and elevated accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). By contrast, deeper OMLD enhances thermodynamic support but is constrained by SST conditions, limiting the total surface heat flux in the storm's vicinity. Results also stress that remote heat fluxes across a broader region, not just beneath the storm core, play a crucial role in determining maximum intensity and deepening. Westward landfall shifts up to 300 km are observed in +3 °C scenarios, emphasizing the potential of ocean heat in altering trajectories. These findings highlight the critical importance of accurately representing upper-ocean thermal structures to improve predictions of TC intensity and trajectories, particularly as warmer future SSTs may lead to more frequent and dynamically evolving hurricanes.
迅速增强的热带气旋是最危险和最难以预测的天气系统之一。在这项工作中,我们重点研究了两个强烈的大西洋tc,它们表现出快速增强(RI,定义为24小时内至少加深36 hPa),并影响了墨西哥湾沿岸。本研究的重点是海洋表面温度(SST)和海洋混合层深度(OMLD)如何调节威尔玛和丽塔(2005)两个飓风的快速增强(RI)和最大强度(MI)。使用天气研究与预报(WRF)模式和简化的1D海洋模式,进行了20次模拟,系统地改变了海温(±1-3°C)和OMLD(加倍或减半),并消除了观测到的海温异常(SSTA)。结果表明,在15-20 hPa°C−1附近,海温主导了TC强度的变化,并相应增加了加深速率。更温暖的模拟也显示出来自海洋的能量转移增加,支持增加的近地表等效位势温度,更对称的风场和更高的累积气旋能量(ACE)。相比之下,较深的OMLD增强了热力支持,但受到海温条件的限制,限制了风暴附近的总地表热通量。研究结果还强调,在更广泛的区域内,而不仅仅是在风暴核心下方,遥远的热通量在决定最大强度和加深程度方面起着至关重要的作用。在+3°C情景下,观测到向西登陆移动达300公里,强调了海洋热量改变轨迹的潜力。这些发现强调了准确表征上层海洋热结构对改善TC强度和轨迹预测的重要性,特别是未来变暖的海温可能导致更频繁和动态演变的飓风。
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引用次数: 0
Seasonal variability and sources of brown carbon in Wuhan: Insights from Bayesian modeling and organic tracers-based source apportionment 武汉地区棕色碳的季节变化和来源:基于贝叶斯模型和有机示踪剂的来源分配
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108736
Zongjun Li , Qiongqiong Wang , Yongyi Zhao , Zhongliang Huang , Kezheng Liao , Huan Yu , Shaofei Kong , Nan Chen , Bo Zhu , Xiao He , Mingjie Xie , Jian Zhen Yu
Brown carbon (BrC) is an important constituent of atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols, and accurately measuring its mass concentration and optical property is of great importance to reduce its uncertainties in model parametrization. This study deployed the novel Bayesian inference (BI) model to determine the BrC mass concentration and absorption on an hour-by-hour basis, using online measurements of multi-wavelength light absorption and total carbon (TC) data over June and December 2023 in Wuhan, central China. BrC mass contributed to 42 % of the TC aerosol and showed comparable level in two months, while its absorption showed distinct seasonal contrast with much higher values in December. Important BrC compositions including various organic tracers were measured, taking advantage of the concurrently collected daily 12-h offline filter samples. BrC mass and absorption showed good correlations with important components such as oxygenated-polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), light PAHs and biomass burning tracer-saccharides. Organic-tracer based source apportionment was conducted for both BrC mass and absorption, and nine distinct source factors were resolved. Secondary sources especially secondary organic aerosol (SOA) factor dominated BrC mass contributions in June, while biomass burning emerged as the primary source in December. The primary sources contributing to BrC absorption were SOA and biomass burning in June, while biomass burning dominated in December. Coal combustion, which was a minor source to BrC mass, was a non-negligible contributor to BrC absorption in both months. Different control measures should be implemented to effectively control BrC mass for improved air quality and to mitigate BrC absorption for its climate effect. The results from this study broaden our understandings of the relationship among chemical, optical and sources of BrC, offering significant implications for environmental management.
褐碳(BrC)是大气碳质气溶胶的重要组成部分,准确测量其质量浓度和光学性质对降低模型参数化中的不确定性具有重要意义。本研究利用2023年6月和12月武汉市多波长光吸收和总碳(TC)在线测量数据,采用新颖的贝叶斯推理(BI)模型,确定了BrC质量浓度和每小时的吸收率。BrC质量对TC气溶胶的贡献率为42%,两个月的吸收量相当,但其吸收量具有明显的季节差异,12月的吸收量要高得多。利用同时收集的每日12 h离线过滤样品,测量了包括各种有机示踪剂在内的重要BrC成分。BrC的质量和吸收率与含氧多环芳烃(PAHs)、轻PAHs和生物质燃烧示踪糖等重要组分具有良好的相关性。基于有机示踪剂对BrC的质量和吸收进行了源解析,并确定了9个不同的源因子。二次源尤其是二次有机气溶胶(SOA)因子在6月的BrC质量贡献中占主导地位,而生物质燃烧在12月成为主要来源。6月份对BrC吸收的主要来源是SOA和生物质燃烧,而12月份生物质燃烧占主导地位。煤燃烧是BrC质量的次要来源,但在这两个月中对BrC的吸收起着不可忽视的作用。应采取不同的控制措施,有效控制BrC的质量,以改善空气质量,并减少BrC的吸收,以减少其气候效应。本研究结果拓宽了我们对BrC的化学、光学和来源之间关系的理解,为环境管理提供了重要的启示。
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引用次数: 0
Revealing ozone persistence under typhoon subsidence in the Greater Bay Area using lidar observations 利用激光雷达观测揭示大湾区台风沉降下的臭氧持久性
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108737
Rui He , Zhongcai Wang , Yongfan Wu , Yan You , Yan Xiang , Andi Zhang , Chenglei Pei , Tianshu Zhang
Ozone (O3) pollution poses a critical air quality challenge in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), particularly under typhoon peripheral circulation. However, the vertical processes governing O3 persistence remain poorly understood. This study investigates a persistent O3 pollution episode in July 2023 using the WRF-Chem model, data assimilation, and the GBA O3 Lidar Network. Results reveal pronounced city-specific differences in O3 persistence mechanisms. In Macao, extended O3 exceedance was driven by persistent typhoon-induced subsidence, suppressed boundary-layer mixing, and convergence of transported O3-rich air masses, forming a regional O3 pool. Conversely, Shenzhen experienced rapid O3 dissipation due to the inflow of cleaner maritime masses. Lidar observations captured distinct O3 stratification within boundary layer under the influence of typhoon subsidence. These findings elucidate city-specific O3 responses under complex meteorological conditions, providing robust scientific guidance for tailored air quality strategies in coastal megacity clusters.
臭氧(O3)污染是粤港澳大湾区(GBA)空气质量的重要挑战,特别是在台风外围环流下。然而,控制O3持久性的垂直过程仍然知之甚少。本研究利用WRF-Chem模型、数据同化和GBA臭氧激光雷达网络调查了2023年7月持续的臭氧污染事件。结果显示,O3持久性机制存在明显的城市特异性差异。在澳门,持续的台风沉降、抑制的边界层混合、输送的富氧气团辐合等因素驱动了O3超标的扩展,形成了区域性O3池。相反,由于更清洁的海上质量的流入,深圳经历了快速的O3耗散。在台风沉降的影响下,激光雷达观测到边界层内明显的O3分层。这些发现阐明了复杂气象条件下城市特定的O3响应,为沿海特大城市群量身定制的空气质量策略提供了强有力的科学指导。
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引用次数: 0
Gobi-sourced dust and dust–climate feedbacks in the March 2023 East Asian storm 2023年3月东亚风暴的戈壁沙尘和沙尘-气候反馈
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108735
Shuna Liang , Bin Wang , Yurui Zhang , Junhua Yang , Ove W. Haugvaldstad , Hui Tang
Amid escalating climate change and environmental instability, understanding the origins, transport mechanisms, and climatic-environmental impacts of intensifying East Asian dust storms has become crucial for global sustainability science. However, current research still faces critical limitations with lacking city- or site-level resolution for source apportionment, and quantitative assessments of the climatic and environmental effects of severe dust events are still insufficient. Here, we integrated in situ measurements, reanalysis datasets, and numerical simulations to investigate the extreme East Asian dust storm in March 2023. Results indicated that the Gobi Desert was the dominant source, contributing approximately 74.9–94.6 % to PM10 levels across four northern Chinese cities. Fine particles (2.5–5.0 μm) exhibited faster and higher-altitude transport than coarse particles (>7.5 μm), with consistent northwestward advection. Size-dependent deposition regimes emerged – dry deposition peaked for 7.5–10 μm particles, while wet deposition shifted from 5 to 7.5 μm in source regions to 2.5–5.0 μm in downwind North China. Crucially, we quantify the dust–climate feedback loop where aerosol-induced surface cooling by reducing surface solar radiation of 2.4–4.8 W m−2, which in turn suppresses surface turbulent kinetic energy and decrease the boundary layer height up to 40 m. The enhanced boundary layer stability subsequently promoted futher dust accumulation. By elucidating this positive feedback mechanism, our study moves beyond established correlations to reveal a key process amplifying extreme dust storms, with critical implications for predicting their intensity and impacts under a changing climate.
在气候变化和环境不稳定加剧的背景下,了解东亚沙尘暴的起源、运输机制和气候环境影响已成为全球可持续发展科学的重要内容。然而,目前的研究仍然面临严重的局限性,缺乏城市或站点级别的来源分配分辨率,对严重沙尘事件的气候和环境影响的定量评估仍然不足。在此,我们综合了现场测量、再分析数据集和数值模拟,对2023年3月东亚极端沙尘暴进行了研究。结果表明,戈壁沙漠是主要来源,对中国北方4个城市PM10水平的贡献约为74.9 - 94.6%。细颗粒(2.5 ~ 5.0 μm)比粗颗粒(>7.5 μm)输运速度更快,输运高度更高,且具有一致的西北平流。干燥沉积的峰值为7.5 ~ 10 μm,而湿沉积的峰值在源区为5 ~ 7.5 μm,在华北顺风区为2.5 ~ 5.0 μm。至关重要的是,我们量化了尘埃-气候反馈回路,其中气溶胶通过减少地表太阳辐射2.4-4.8 W m−2来诱导地表冷却,这反过来又抑制了地表湍流动能并降低了边界层高度,最高可达40 m。边界层稳定性的增强随后促进了进一步的粉尘积累。通过阐明这种正反馈机制,我们的研究超越了既定的相关性,揭示了放大极端沙尘暴的关键过程,对预测其强度和气候变化下的影响具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Near-surface wind field characterization of medicanes using satellite observations 利用卫星观测的近地面风场特征
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108734
Stefano Sebastianelli, Leo Pio D'Adderio, Paolo Sanò, Daniele Casella, Giulia Panegrossi
MEDIterranean hurriCANES (Medicanes) represent a subcategory of Mediterranean cyclones that typically originate as extratropical systems then acquiring characteristics similar to tropical cyclones (TCs). These include the warm core, a nearly symmetric near-surface wind circulation, and eye-like features with spiraling rainbands. This study employs satellite scatterometer data to analyse ocean near-surface wind field in order to detect the rotational center by means the newly developed Medicane Rotational Center Automated Detection (MeRCAD) algorithm. As for TCs, the radius of maximum wind (RMW) is defined as the distance between the rotational center and the area of maximum wind. Results show a significant decrease in RMW, often down to a few tens of kilometres, when the wind field is featured by a nearly symmetric circulation. This allows wind features to be used as an indicator of the possible transition to the mature stage. We also found that the maximum sustained wind associated with the medicanes' mature phase is mostly beyond 95th percentile of values observed for all Mediterranean cyclones, although they appear substantially weaker than TCs. In addition, if the tropical transition occurs, the warm core is fueled by an area of deep convection that may be located near the rotational center at distances shorter than the RMW. However, the presence of an almost symmetrical wind circulation alone is insufficient to indicate the occurrence of the mature phase, due to the possible lack of a warm core. Vice versa, the warm core may occur without the characteristic nearly-symmetric wind circulation.
地中海飓风(Medicanes)是地中海气旋的一个子类,通常起源于温带系统,然后获得与热带气旋(tc)相似的特征。这些特征包括温暖的地核,近乎对称的近地表风环流,以及带有螺旋雨带的眼状特征。本研究利用卫星散射计数据分析海洋近地面风场,利用新开发的医学旋转中心自动检测(MeRCAD)算法检测海洋近地面风场的旋转中心。对于tc,最大风半径(RMW)定义为旋转中心到最大风区之间的距离。结果表明,当风场以近对称环流为特征时,RMW显著减小,通常减小到几十公里。这使得风的特征可以作为可能过渡到成熟阶段的一个指标。我们还发现,与“medicanes”成熟期相关的最大持续风大多超过所有地中海气旋观测值的第95个百分位数,尽管它们明显弱于tc。此外,如果热带转变发生,热核由一个深度对流区域提供燃料,该区域可能位于旋转中心附近,距离比RMW短。然而,由于可能缺乏暖核,仅存在几乎对称的风环流不足以表明成熟阶段的发生。反之,温暖的地核可能在没有特征的近对称风环流的情况下出现。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing wind forecasts through assimilation of maximum wind observations in WRF-3DVar: A comparison with conventional AWS data for a severe squall line 通过同化WRF-3DVar的最大风观测来增强风预报:与常规AWS资料对强飑线的比较
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108733
Dongmei Xu , Ruonan Zhao , Wei Sun , Jinzhong Min , Zhixin He , Feifei Shen
Convective-scale wind analysis and short-range forecast remains challenging due to the limited availability of high-temporal-resolution surface wind observations. This study investigates the impact of assimilating conventional 10-min average wind (CAW) and maximum 2-min average wind (MAW) observations from automatic weather stations on convective-scale wind analysis and short-term forecasting, focusing on a severe squall line event that affected Beijing on 30 May 2024. A series of sensitivity experiments were conducted using the WRF-3DVar system, including both single observation tests and full-domain assimilation experiments. Results indicate that CAW data, owing to their high temporal frequency, contribute to localized improvements in near-surface wind analysis and enhance the depiction of cold pool intensity. In contrast, MAW data exert broader, more profound influence that extends through multiple vertical layers, enabling a markedly more accurate reconstruction of three-dimensional wind and the full spatial footprint of the cold pool in the convective system. The comparative analysis demonstrates that MAW assimilation generates larger wind increments, broader spatial coverage, and better agreement with mesoscale observations than CAW assimilation. Additionally, MAW data yield a more realistic temporal evolution of surface winds and more coherent representation of gust front dynamics. These findings underscore the superior capability of MAW observations in convective-scale wind assimilation. Their expansive spatial reach and robust dynamical coherence offer greater potential for improving short-term convective forecasts, positioning them as an indispensable resource for the next generation of nowcasting and data-assimilation frameworks.
对流尺度的风分析和短期预报仍然具有挑战性,因为高时间分辨率地面风观测的可用性有限。本文以2024年5月30日影响北京的一次强飑线事件为研究对象,探讨了自动气象站常规10分钟平均风(CAW)和最大2分钟平均风(MAW)观测资料同化对对流尺度风分析和短期预报的影响。利用WRF-3DVar系统进行了一系列灵敏度试验,包括单次观测试验和全域同化试验。结果表明,由于CAW数据的高时间频率,有助于局部改进近地面风分析,增强对冷池强度的描述。相比之下,MAW数据具有更广泛、更深刻的影响,可以延伸到多个垂直层,从而可以更准确地重建三维风和对流系统中冷池的完整空间足迹。对比分析表明,与CAW同化相比,MAW同化产生的风增量更大,空间覆盖范围更广,与中尺度观测的一致性更好。此外,MAW数据提供了更真实的地面风的时间演变和更连贯的阵风锋动力学表征。这些发现强调了MAW观测在对流尺度风同化方面的优越能力。其广阔的空间覆盖范围和强大的动力相干性为改进短期对流预报提供了更大的潜力,使其成为下一代临近预报和数据同化框架不可或缺的资源。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation and analysis of CO2 concentration in China from 2009 to 2021 based on the WRF-Chem model 基于WRF-Chem模型的2009 - 2021年中国CO2浓度模拟与分析
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108732
Wenhao Liu, Yong Xue, Xiaolu Ling, Botao He, Chenggang Li, Liying Han
Monitoring carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is considered an effective approach to controlling greenhouse gas emissions. Simulating CO2 concentration variations using atmospheric chemistry models can compensate for the spatial and temporal limitations of ground-based and satellite observations. In this study, the WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry) model was employed to simulate CO2 concentrations over central and eastern China from 2019 to 2021. The reliability of the simulation results was verified through comparisons with satellite data from OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2), OCO-3 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory 3), and GOSAT (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite). Additionally, the results were validated against observational data from TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network) and WDCGG (World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases). The RMSE of the WRF-Chem simulation results compared to TCCON and WDCGG station observations were 2.146 ppm and 2.239 ppm, respectively, with R of 0.716 and 0.825. When compared to OCO-2, OCO-3, and GOSAT satellite observations, the RMSE were 2.000 ppm, 2.080 ppm, and 1.827 ppm, respectively, with R values of 0.792, 0.831, and 0.837. Based on a comparative analysis integrating WRF-Chem simulations from 2009 to 2021, this study reveals an upward trend in XCO2 concentrations over China, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.0 to 2.5 ppm. Although the growth rate slowed during 2019 to 2020, likely influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, concentrations continued to increase annually. This result indicates that short-term variations in anthropogenic emissions can moderate the rate of increase but do not alter the long-term trend. The consistency between simulated CO2 concentrations, MEIC inventory emission trends, and ground-based observations further validates the simulation accuracy and suggests the reliability of MEIC in characterizing China's carbon emission changes during the pandemic.
监测二氧化碳浓度被认为是控制温室气体排放的有效方法。利用大气化学模式模拟CO2浓度变化可以弥补地面和卫星观测的空间和时间限制。本文采用WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model耦合化学模式)模式对2019 - 2021年中国中东部地区的CO2浓度进行了模拟。通过与OCO-2(轨道碳观测站2)、OCO-3(轨道碳观测站3)和GOSAT(温室气体观测卫星)卫星数据的对比,验证了模拟结果的可靠性。此外,利用TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network)和WDCGG (World data Centre for Greenhouse Gases)的观测数据对结果进行了验证。WRF-Chem模拟结果与TCCON和WDCGG站观测值的RMSE分别为2.146 ppm和2.239 ppm, R分别为0.716和0.825。与OCO-2、OCO-3和GOSAT卫星观测值相比,RMSE分别为2.000 ppm、2.080 ppm和1.827 ppm, R值分别为0.792、0.831和0.837。基于2009 - 2021年WRF-Chem模拟的对比分析,本研究发现中国XCO2浓度呈上升趋势,年均增长率约为2.0 ~ 2.5 ppm。尽管可能受COVID-19大流行的影响,2019年至2020年期间增长率有所放缓,但浓度继续逐年增加。这一结果表明,人为排放的短期变化可以减缓增长率,但不会改变长期趋势。模拟的CO2浓度、MEIC库存排放趋势与地面观测数据的一致性进一步验证了模拟的准确性,并表明MEIC表征疫情期间中国碳排放变化的可靠性。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating microphysics scheme impacts on summer precipitation in Northwestern China using a convection permitting WRF model 基于对流允许的WRF模式评价微物理方案对西北夏季降水的影响
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108691
Ya Huang , Qingyun Duan , Yong Zhao , Lihua Chen , Yanping Li
Microphysics parameterization strongly influences precipitation formation in numerical weather and climate models. This study evaluates three double moment microphysics schemes in the convection permitting WRF ARW model, including Jensen ISHMAEL (JIS), Thompson (TH), and WRF Double Moment 7 class (WDM7), for summer precipitation over Northwestern China using a 4 km simulation for 2009 to 2011. The evaluation, based on IMERG satellite data and surface observations, focuses on spatial distribution, diurnal cycle, hydrometeor structure, and thermodynamic conditions. All three schemes reproduce the major precipitation bands along the Tianshan, Qilian, and Kunlun Mountains, though with wet biases at high elevations and dry biases in the Tarim and Qaidam Basins. For diurnal variations, all schemes capture the characteristic double-peak cycle, with WDM7 providing the most accurate peak timing, TH performing moderately, and JIS showing a delayed, overly strong afternoon peak. Hydrometeor analysis shows that JIS and TH generate deeper, more continuous ice-phase layers in the mid- to upper troposphere, supporting persistent precipitation development. WDM7 produces noticeably weaker mid-level ice content, limiting sustained ice-phase growth. Thermodynamic responses indicate that JIS and TH modify local instability and moisture through stronger latent heating feedbacks, whereas WDM7 exhibits lower atmospheric moisture and instability and a higher lifting condensation level, creating conditions less favorable for deep convection. Among the three schemes, WDM7 exhibited the smallest wet bias and most effectively reduces the overestimation of mountain precipitation present in the JIS and TH simulations. These findings highlight the importance of microphysics selection for improving high resolution precipitation simulation over complex terrain.
在数值天气和气候模式中,微物理参数化强烈影响降水的形成。利用2009 - 2011年4 km模拟,对WRF ARW模式下的Jensen ISHMAEL (JIS)、Thompson (TH)和WRF双矩7类(WDM7)三种对流双矩微物理方案进行了评价。该评估基于IMERG卫星数据和地面观测,重点关注空间分布、日循环、水成物结构和热力学条件。三种方案均再现了天山、祁连山和昆仑山一带的主要降水带,但在高海拔地区存在湿偏,在塔里木和柴达木盆地存在干偏。对于日变化,所有方案都捕获了特征双峰周期,WDM7提供了最准确的峰值时间,TH表现中等,JIS显示延迟的,过于强烈的下午峰值。水流星分析表明,JIS和TH在对流层中高层产生更深、更连续的冰相层,支持持续降水发展。WDM7产生明显较弱的中层冰含量,限制了持续的冰相增长。热力响应表明,JIS和TH通过较强的潜热反馈改变了局地的不稳定和湿度,而WDM7表现出较低的大气湿度和不稳定以及较高的抬升凝结水平,为深层对流创造了不利的条件。在3种方案中,WDM7表现出最小的湿偏,并且最有效地降低了JIS和TH模拟中存在的山地降水高估。这些发现强调了微物理选择对于提高复杂地形下高分辨率降水模拟的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The climatology of complexity: Spatiotemporal analysis of summer subtropical anticyclones over Southwest Asia and adjacent regions 复杂气候学:西南亚及邻近地区夏季副热带反气旋的时空分析
IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108713
Morteza Keyhani, Abbas Mofidi, Azar Zarrin
This study provides a comprehensive climatology of summer subtropical anticyclones (SAs) over Southwest Asia using daily ERA-Interim geopotential height data (1990–2019) across six pressure levels (900–100 hPa). Anticyclones were identified on 2760 summer days using combined objective and subjective methods, enabling a multi-level assessment of their frequency, spatial organization, preferred locations, vertical structure, seasonal evolution, and long-term variability. SAs are found throughout the atmospheric column, with maximum frequencies in the mid-troposphere and minimum occurrences near the surface. Distinct spatial modes emerge at different levels—bimodal at 500 hPa, trimodal at 700 hPa, and quadrimodal at 100–200 hPa—revealing finer spatial complexity than earlier climatologies. A key finding is a pronounced vertical seesaw pattern in seasonal occurrence: lower-tropospheric anticyclones peak in June but decline sharply in July, while mid- and upper-tropospheric anticyclones intensify. This indicates a coordinated vertical redistribution of anticyclonic activity during summer. Interlevel relationships exhibit strong coherence in the upper troposphere, whereas weaker correlations between adjacent lower and mid-tropospheric levels suggest level-dependent formation mechanisms and vertical tilt. Regionally, the study refines the characteristics of the Turkmenistan, Zagros, and Arabian anticyclones, highlighting the vertical continuity of the Arabian anticyclone and its sensitivity to surface thermal forcing. Long-term analysis reveals no significant meridional shifts but shows a notable increase in anticyclone frequency at 700 hPa, likely linked to recent warming over the Arabian Peninsula. Overall, the findings demonstrate the dynamical complexity of SAs across Southwest Asia and provide an updated framework for understanding their variability and climate relevance.
本研究利用1990-2019年6个气压水平(900-100 hPa)的逐日ERA-Interim位势高度数据,提供了西南亚夏季副热带反气旋(SAs)的综合气候学。利用客观和主观相结合的方法对2760个夏季的反气旋进行了识别,从而对其频率、空间组织、首选位置、垂直结构、季节演变和长期变化进行了多层次评估。sa在整个大气柱中都有发现,对流层中层频率最高,地表附近频率最低。不同的空间模式在不同的水平上出现——500 hPa的双峰、700 hPa的三峰和100-200 hPa的四峰——揭示了比早期气候学更精细的空间复杂性。一个关键的发现是季节性发生的明显垂直跷跷板模式:对流层下层反气旋在6月达到峰值,但在7月急剧下降,而对流层中高层反气旋则加剧。这表明夏季反气旋活动有一个协调的垂直再分布。对流层高层的层间关系表现出很强的相干性,而相邻的对流层低层和中层之间的相关性较弱,表明了依赖于水平的形成机制和垂直倾斜。从区域上看,该研究细化了土库曼斯坦、扎格罗斯和阿拉伯反气旋的特征,突出了阿拉伯反气旋的垂直连续性及其对地表热强迫的敏感性。长期分析显示经向没有显著的变化,但在700 hPa处反气旋频率显著增加,这可能与最近阿拉伯半岛的变暖有关。总的来说,这些发现表明了西南亚地区风沙的动态复杂性,并为理解其变异性和气候相关性提供了一个更新的框架。
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Atmospheric Research
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