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The impact of modeling decisions in statistical profiling 统计分析中建模决策的影响
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/dap.2023.29
Ruben L. Bach, Christoph Kern, Hannah Mautner, Frauke Kreuter
Abstract Statistical profiling of job seekers is an attractive option to guide the activities of public employment services. Many hope that algorithms will improve both efficiency and effectiveness of employment services’ activities that are so far often based on human judgment. Against this backdrop, we evaluate regression and machine-learning models for predicting job-seekers’ risk of becoming long-term unemployed using German administrative labor market data. While our models achieve competitive predictive performance, we show that training an accurate prediction model is just one element in a series of design and modeling decisions, each having notable effects that span beyond predictive accuracy. We observe considerable variation in the cases flagged as high risk across models, highlighting the need for systematic evaluation and transparency of the full prediction pipeline if statistical profiling techniques are to be implemented by employment agencies.
对求职者进行统计分析是指导公共就业服务活动的一种有吸引力的选择。许多人希望,算法将提高就业服务活动的效率和效果,目前这些活动通常是基于人类的判断。在此背景下,我们使用德国行政劳动力市场数据评估回归和机器学习模型,以预测求职者长期失业的风险。虽然我们的模型实现了具有竞争力的预测性能,但我们表明,训练一个准确的预测模型只是一系列设计和建模决策中的一个元素,每个元素都具有超越预测精度的显着影响。我们观察到,在不同的模型中,被标记为高风险的案例存在相当大的差异,这突出了如果职业介绍所要实施统计分析技术,则需要对整个预测管道进行系统评估和透明度。
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引用次数: 0
Can we trust trust-based data governance models? 我们能信任基于信任的数据治理模型吗?
Pub Date : 2022-12-05 DOI: 10.1017/dap.2022.36
B. van der Sloot, Esther Keymolen
Abstract Fiduciary agents and trust-based institutions are increasingly proposed and considered in legal, regulatory, and ethical discourse as an alternative or addition to a control-based model of data management. Instead of leaving it up to the citizen to decide what to do with her data and to ensure that her best interests are met, an independent person or organization will act on her behalf, potentially also taking into account the general interest. By ensuring that these interests are protected, the hope is that citizens’ willingness to share data will increase, thereby allowing for more data-driven projects. Thus, trust-based models are presented as a win–win scenario. It is clear, however, that there are also apparent dangers entailed with trust-based approaches. Especially one model, that of data trusts, may have far-reaching consequences.
受托代理人和基于信任的机构在法律、监管和伦理话语中越来越多地被提出和考虑,作为基于控制的数据管理模型的替代或补充。与其让公民自己决定如何处理自己的数据,并确保自己的最大利益得到满足,一个独立的个人或组织将代表公民行事,可能还会考虑到公众利益。通过确保这些利益得到保护,希望公民分享数据的意愿会增加,从而允许更多数据驱动的项目。因此,基于信任的模型呈现为一个双赢的场景。然而,很明显,基于信任的方法也有明显的危险。尤其是数据信任这一模式,可能会产生深远的影响。
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引用次数: 2
Is the Capabilities Approach operationalizable to analyse the impact of digital identity on human lives 能力方法是否可用于分析数字身份对人类生活的影响
Pub Date : 2022-11-23 DOI: 10.1017/dap.2022.37
Henk Marsman
Abstract Digital identity systems are promoted with the promise of great benefit and inclusion. The case of the Ugandan digital identity system demonstrates that the impact of digital identity systems is not only positive but also has negative impacts, significantly affecting human lives for the worse. The impact on the human lives of digital identity systems can be assessed by multiple frameworks. A specific framework that has been mentioned is the capabilities approach (CA). This article demonstrates that the CA is a framework to assess the impact on human lives that can be operationalized for technology and information and communication technology, including digital identity systems. Further research is required to compare the CA with other candidate evaluation frameworks.
摘要数字身份系统的推广具有巨大的效益和包容性。乌干达数字身份系统的案例表明,数字身份系统不仅产生了积极影响,而且产生了负面影响,严重影响了人类生活。数字身份系统对人类生活的影响可以通过多种框架进行评估。已经提到的一个具体框架是能力方法(CA)。这篇文章表明,CA是一个评估对人类生活影响的框架,可以用于技术和信息通信技术,包括数字身份系统。需要进一步研究,将CA与其他候选评估框架进行比较。
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引用次数: 1
Measuring the risk of corruption in Latin American political parties. De jure analysis of institutions 衡量拉丁美洲政党腐败风险。法律上的制度分析
Pub Date : 2022-11-15 DOI: 10.1017/dap.2022.33
Giovanna Rodríguez-García
Abstract Research that examines the impact of economic, social, and political factors on political corruption uses expert’ and citizen’ perceptions for measuring corruption and testing arguments. Scholars argue that the perception of corruption is a good proxy for actual corruption because data on actual corruption are limited and not entirely trustworthy. However, perception indexes do not allow for testing separate mechanisms driving citizen’ perceptions of corruption from actual levels of corruption in different government branches. To address this issue, I introduce a new index based on Latin American countries to measure the risk of corruption in political parties. Using a de jure analysis of laws and regulations, the Risk of Corruption (ROC) index evaluates the likelihood of political parties engaging in corrupt activities. Instead of measuring corrupt activities or perception directly, the ROC measures the risks of involving in corruption. The index has important implications for academics and practitioners in anti-corruption issues. First, it allows us to test arguments about the role of political parties and legislatures in reducing political corruption. Second, it helps to understand how political parties could improve their internal organization to decrease the risk of corrupt activities. Finally, it is a valuable instrument for cross-national studies in diverse fields that study political parties.
摘要研究经济、社会和政治因素对政治腐败的影响,使用专家和公民的感知来衡量腐败并检验论点。学者们认为,对腐败的看法是实际腐败的一个很好的代表,因为关于实际腐败的数据是有限的,并不完全可信。然而,感知指数不允许从不同政府部门的实际腐败水平中测试驱动公民对腐败感知的单独机制。为了解决这个问题,我引入了一个基于拉丁美洲国家的新指数来衡量政党腐败的风险。腐败风险指数通过对法律法规的法律分析,评估政党参与腐败活动的可能性。中华民国没有直接衡量腐败活动或看法,而是衡量参与腐败的风险。该指数对反腐败问题的学者和从业人员具有重要意义。首先,它使我们能够检验关于政党和立法机构在减少政治腐败方面的作用的论点。其次,它有助于了解政党如何改善其内部组织,以降低腐败活动的风险。最后,它是研究政党的不同领域的跨国家研究的宝贵工具。
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引用次数: 0
Operationalizing digital self-determination 运营数字自决
Pub Date : 2022-11-15 DOI: 10.1017/dap.2023.11
S. Verhulst
Abstract A proliferation of data-generating devices, sensors, and applications has led to unprecedented amounts of digital data. We live in an era of datafication, one in which life is increasingly quantified and transformed into intelligence for private or public benefit. When used responsibly, this offers new opportunities for public good. The potential of data is evident in the possibilities offered by open data and data collaboratives—both instances of how wider access to data can lead to positive and often dramatic social transformation. However, three key forms of asymmetry currently limit this potential, especially for already vulnerable and marginalized groups: data asymmetries, information asymmetries, and agency asymmetries. These asymmetries limit human potential, both in a practical and psychological sense, leading to feelings of disempowerment and eroding public trust in technology. Existing methods to limit asymmetries (such as open data or consent) as well as some alternatives under consideration (data ownership, collective ownership, personal information management systems) have limitations to adequately address the challenges at hand. A new principle and practice of digital self-determination (DSD) is therefore required. The study and practice of DSD remain in its infancy. The characteristics we have outlined here are only exploratory, and much work remains to be done so as to better understand what works and what does not. We suggest the need for a new research framework or agenda to explore DSD and how it can address the asymmetries, imbalances, and inequalities—both in data and society more generally—that are emerging as key public policy challenges of our era.
摘要数据生成设备、传感器和应用程序的激增导致了前所未有的数字数据量。我们生活在一个数据化的时代,在这个时代,生活越来越多地被量化,并转化为私人或公共利益的智能。当负责任地使用时,这为公共利益提供了新的机会。数据的潜力在开放数据和数据协作提供的可能性中显而易见——这两个例子都表明,更广泛地获取数据可以带来积极的、往往是戏剧性的社会变革。然而,目前有三种关键的不对称形式限制了这种潜力,尤其是对于已经脆弱和边缘化的群体:数据不对称、信息不对称和机构不对称。这些不对称性在实践和心理意义上限制了人类的潜力,导致了被剥夺权力的感觉,并侵蚀了公众对技术的信任。现有的限制不对称的方法(如公开数据或同意)以及正在考虑的一些替代方案(数据所有权、集体所有权、个人信息管理系统)在充分应对当前挑战方面存在局限性。因此,需要一种新的数字自决原则和实践。DSD的研究和实践仍处于初级阶段。我们在这里概述的特征只是探索性的,还有很多工作要做,以便更好地了解什么有效,什么无效。我们建议需要一个新的研究框架或议程来探索DSD,以及它如何解决数据和社会中的不对称、不平衡和不平等问题,这些问题正在成为我们时代的关键公共政策挑战。
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引用次数: 2
Govtech against corruption: What are the integrity dividends of government digitalization? 政府科技反腐:政府数字化的廉洁红利是什么?
Pub Date : 2022-11-14 DOI: 10.1017/dap.2022.31
C. Santiso
Abstract Does digitalization reduce corruption? What are the integrity benefits of government digitalization? While the correlation between digitalization and corruption is well established, there is less actionable evidence on the integrity dividends of specific digitalization reforms on different types of corruption and the policy channels through which they operate. These linkages are especially relevant in high corruption risk environments. This article unbundles the integrity dividends of digital reforms undertaken by governments around the world, accelerated by the pandemic. It analyzes the rise of data-driven integrity analytics as promising tools in the anticorruption space deployed by tech-savvy integrity actors. It also assesses the broader integrity benefits of the digitalization of government services and the automation of bureaucratic processes, which contribute to reducing bribe solicitation risks by front-office bureaucrats. It analyzes in particular the impact of digitalization on social transfers. It argues that government digitalization can be an implicit yet effective anticorruption strategy, with subtler yet deeper effects, but there needs to be greater synergies between digital reforms and anticorruption strategies.
数字化能减少腐败吗?政府数字化的诚信效益是什么?虽然数字化与腐败之间的相关性已经确立,但关于具体数字化改革对不同类型腐败的廉洁红利及其运作的政策渠道的可操作性证据较少。这些联系在高腐败风险环境中尤为重要。本文揭示了全球各国政府进行的数字化改革带来的诚信红利,疫情加速了这一改革。它分析了数据驱动的完整性分析作为由精通技术的完整性参与者部署的反腐败领域的有前途的工具的兴起。它还评估了政府服务数字化和官僚程序自动化对更广泛的廉洁效益,这有助于降低前台官僚的索贿风险。它特别分析了数字化对社会转移支付的影响。报告认为,政府数字化可以成为一种隐性而有效的反腐败战略,具有微妙而深刻的影响,但数字化改革与反腐败战略之间需要更大的协同效应。
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引用次数: 2
Migration data collection and management in a changing Latin American landscape 不断变化的拉丁美洲环境中的移民数据收集和管理
Pub Date : 2022-11-14 DOI: 10.1017/dap.2022.34
María E. Cervantes-Macías
Abstract While many Latin American countries have a tradition of receiving migrants, including the countries selected as case studies, there are no institutionalized mechanisms for the integration and settlement of migrants. The objective of this article is to explore how to improve migration data collection and management in a region that does not have many migration integration policies in place. I assess the state of migration data collection and management in three case studies: the city of Cucuta in Colombia, the North Huetar Region in Costa Rica, and the city of Monterrey in Mexico. The three countries publish data exclusively at the national level, rather than the local or municipal. Despite all case studies having a variety of administrative data, mainly in the form of entries and exits by nationality, these data are not enough to properly identify the sociodemographic characteristics of migrant populations in a country, and much less in specific cities. I make recommendations divided into three main themes to improve migration data in Latin America.
虽然许多拉丁美洲国家有接收移民的传统,包括被选为案例研究的国家,但没有移民融合和定居的制度化机制。本文的目的是探讨如何在没有许多迁移整合政策的地区改进迁移数据收集和管理。我通过三个案例研究来评估移民数据收集和管理的现状:哥伦比亚的库库塔市、哥斯达黎加的北韦塔尔地区和墨西哥的蒙特雷市。这三个国家只公布国家一级的数据,而不是地方或市一级的数据。尽管所有案例研究都有各种各样的行政数据,主要是按国籍入境和出境的形式,但这些数据不足以适当地确定一个国家移民人口的社会人口特征,更不用说具体城市了。我提出的建议分为三个主题,以改善拉丁美洲的移民数据。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting politicians’ misconduct: Evidence from Colombia 预测政客的不当行为:来自哥伦比亚的证据
Pub Date : 2022-11-14 DOI: 10.1017/dap.2022.35
Jorge Gallego, M. Prem, Juan F. Vargas
Abstract Corruption has pervasive effects on economic development and the well-being of the population. Despite being crucial and necessary, fighting corruption is not an easy task because it is a difficult phenomenon to measure and detect. However, recent advances in the field of artificial intelligence may help in this quest. In this article, we propose the use of machine-learning models to predict municipality-level corruption in a developing country. Using data from disciplinary prosecutions conducted by an anti-corruption agency in Colombia, we trained four canonical models (Random Forests, Gradient Boosting Machine, Lasso, and Neural Networks), and ensemble their predictions, to predict whether or not a mayor will commit acts of corruption. Our models achieve acceptable levels of performance, based on metrics such as the precision and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, demonstrating that these tools are useful in predicting where misbehavior is most likely to occur. Moreover, our feature-importance analysis shows us which groups of variables are most important in predicting corruption.
摘要腐败对经济发展和人民福祉具有普遍影响。尽管打击腐败是至关重要和必要的,但它并不是一项容易的任务,因为它是一种难以衡量和发现的现象。然而,人工智能领域的最新进展可能有助于这一探索。在本文中,我们建议使用机器学习模型来预测发展中国家的市级腐败。利用哥伦比亚一家反腐败机构进行的纪律起诉的数据,我们训练了四个典型模型(随机森林、梯度提升机、拉索和神经网络),并综合了它们的预测,以预测市长是否会犯下腐败行为。基于精度和接收器工作特性曲线下的面积等指标,我们的模型实现了可接受的性能水平,证明这些工具在预测最有可能发生不当行为的地方是有用的。此外,我们的特征重要性分析向我们展示了哪些变量组在预测腐败方面最重要。
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引用次数: 0
On the sociopolitical configurations of digital identity principles 论数字身份原则的社会政治配置
Pub Date : 2022-11-04 DOI: 10.1017/dap.2022.30
E. Whitley, E. Schoemaker
Abstract Digital identity systems are not devised for their own sake, rather they are developed by institutions as part of their pursuit of specific goals—such as economic, social, and developmental outcomes through enabling individual rights and facilitating access to basic services and entitlements. A growing number of organizations and institutions are advancing specific principles, frameworks, and “imaginaries” of what “good” digital identity looks like—yet it is often not clear how much influence they have or what their underlying worldview is to those designing, developing, and deploying these systems. This paper introduces sociopolitical configurations as a means of studying these underlying worldviews. Sociopolitical configurations combine elements from technological frames, expectations, and imaginations as well as developmental discourses to provide a basis for critically examining three key documents in this space.
摘要数字身份系统并不是为其自身而设计的,而是由机构开发的,作为其追求特定目标的一部分,例如通过赋予个人权利和促进获得基本服务和权利来实现经济、社会和发展成果。越来越多的组织和机构正在推进关于“好”数字身份的具体原则、框架和“想象”,但通常不清楚它们对设计、开发和部署这些系统的人有多大影响,也不清楚它们的基本世界观是什么。本文介绍了社会政治形态作为研究这些潜在世界观的一种手段。社会批判配置结合了来自技术框架、期望和想象以及发展话语的元素,为批判性地审视这个空间中的三个关键文件提供了基础。
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引用次数: 2
Mistrust of government within authoritarian states hindering user acceptance and adoption of digital IDs in Africa: The Nigerian context 专制国家对政府的不信任阻碍了非洲用户接受和采用数字身份:尼日利亚背景
Pub Date : 2022-10-25 DOI: 10.1017/dap.2022.29
Babatunde O. Okunoye
Abstract Nigeria commenced its national foundational digital identity project in 2007 and had enrolled 60 million people by July 2021. The project, led by the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), seeks to unify the country’s public and private functional identity databases, and aims to improve government services and national security. Although the enrolment process had encountered initial challenges such as the absence of enrolment centers in some communities across the country, enrolment for the biometric ID had proceeded without any significant public objection to its objectives. Following the EndSARS protests of October 2020, where youths protesting police violence and perceived poor governance were shot at by government security forces and protesters placed under surveillance, the government announced an updated national identity policy mandating citizens link their National Identity Number (NIN) with their SIM card information. For the first time, significant pockets of resistance arose against the national ID project by sections of the public who perceived the EndSARS violence as signaling a change in government behavior, and the updated ID policy as a mechanism for empowering government surveillance and authoritarianism. The resistance to the ID project marked a shift in public perception which threatens its future. This paper argues that mistrust in government data collection projects grows when data collection is perceived to be increasing government power to the detriment of human rights and freedom. It also puts forward a proposal on how to restore trust within the low-trust environment in Nigeria including the passage of a data protection law and amendments to the NIMC Act and Policies/Regulations, establishing Federated identity providers which give choices to end-users, and delinking the NIN from functional identity databases.
尼日利亚于2007年启动了国家基础数字身份项目,到2021年7月已注册了6000万人。该项目由国家身份管理委员会(NIMC)领导,旨在统一国家的公共和私人功能身份数据库,旨在改善政府服务和国家安全。虽然登记过程最初遇到了一些挑战,例如在全国一些社区没有登记中心,但登记生物识别身份的工作仍在进行中,公众对其目标没有任何重大反对。在2020年10月的EndSARS抗议活动之后,抗议警察暴力和治理不善的年轻人遭到政府安全部队的枪击,抗议者受到监视,政府宣布了一项更新的国家身份政策,要求公民将其国民身份号码(NIN)与其SIM卡信息联系起来。这是第一次,一些公众认为EndSARS暴力是政府行为改变的信号,更新的身份证政策是授权政府监督和威权主义的机制,对国家身份证项目产生了重大抵制。对ID项目的抵制标志着公众观念的转变,这威胁到它的未来。本文认为,当数据收集被认为是在增加政府权力,损害人权和自由时,对政府数据收集项目的不信任就会增加。它还提出了一项关于如何在尼日利亚低信任环境中恢复信任的建议,包括通过数据保护法和修订NIMC法案和政策/法规,建立联邦身份提供者,为最终用户提供选择,并将NIN与功能身份数据库断开连接。
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引用次数: 1
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