Pub Date : 2025-11-10DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01257-1
Enayat A. Moallemi, Adam C. Castonguay, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Rohan Nelson, Wolfgang Britz, Cameron Allen, Michalis Hadjikakou, Michael Battaglia, Brett A. Bryan, Costanza Conti, Raymundo Marcos-Martinez, Stefan Frank, Duy Nong, Sibel Eker, Saman Razavi, Javier Navarro-Garcia, Lei Gao
Food systems face multi-dimensional pressures and require integrated assessments of environmental, social, health and economic dimensions to inform their transformation. Although economic equilibrium models and integrated assessment models have been instrumental in this context, future decision-making requires more diverse and inclusive participatory processes. Here we evaluate the ability of current models to represent food systems and identify challenges and opportunities regarding key aspects of their transformative change, including socio-political dynamics and human–nature feedbacks, links between global and local scales, robustness under uncertainty, as well as evolving stakeholder demands. Our analysis underscores the need to rethink how models are designed and used for a more effective integration into decision-making processes. Food system transformations need nuanced approaches to modelling future outcomes. This Review explores current challenges and outlines paths forward for food system transformation modelling, with an emphasis on diversification of the approaches used and integration into decision-making processes.
{"title":"Complexity and uncertainty in future food system transformation modelling","authors":"Enayat A. Moallemi, Adam C. Castonguay, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Rohan Nelson, Wolfgang Britz, Cameron Allen, Michalis Hadjikakou, Michael Battaglia, Brett A. Bryan, Costanza Conti, Raymundo Marcos-Martinez, Stefan Frank, Duy Nong, Sibel Eker, Saman Razavi, Javier Navarro-Garcia, Lei Gao","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01257-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01257-1","url":null,"abstract":"Food systems face multi-dimensional pressures and require integrated assessments of environmental, social, health and economic dimensions to inform their transformation. Although economic equilibrium models and integrated assessment models have been instrumental in this context, future decision-making requires more diverse and inclusive participatory processes. Here we evaluate the ability of current models to represent food systems and identify challenges and opportunities regarding key aspects of their transformative change, including socio-political dynamics and human–nature feedbacks, links between global and local scales, robustness under uncertainty, as well as evolving stakeholder demands. Our analysis underscores the need to rethink how models are designed and used for a more effective integration into decision-making processes. Food system transformations need nuanced approaches to modelling future outcomes. This Review explores current challenges and outlines paths forward for food system transformation modelling, with an emphasis on diversification of the approaches used and integration into decision-making processes.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 11","pages":"1008-1019"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145478102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-10DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01260-6
Jiangtao Zhou, Sueppong Gowachirapant, Christophe Zeder, Alexander Wieczorek, Jeannette Nuessli Guth, Ines Kutzli, Sebastian Siol, Ferdinand von Meyenn, Michael B. Zimmermann, Raffaele Mezzenga
Iron deficiency and anaemia affect two billion people globally. Iron fortification can help to treat anaemia, but most current fortificants are limited by low absorption and/or poor sensory properties. Here we introduce oat protein nanofibrils (OatNF) carrying ultrasmall iron nanoparticles that are engineered to carry iron in ferrous or ferric form. In a prospective cross-over stable-isotope absorption trial in young iron-deficient women (n = 52), OatNF reduced with sodium ascorbate carried mainly ferrous iron and showed high fractional absorption with water and with polyphenol-rich food, showing 1.76- and 1.65-fold higher absorption, respectively, compared with ferrous sulfate. When sodium hydroxide was used as the reducing agent, OatNF carried mainly ferric iron, which was also well absorbed and featured good sensory properties in reactive food matrices. OatNF hybrids offer a plant-based strategy for delivering highly bioavailable iron for food fortification. Nanofibrils constructed from oat protein and carrying iron nanoparticles can increase absorption compared with ferrous sulfate in human studies, offering a promising fortification strategy for treating iron deficiency and improving human nutrition.
{"title":"Oat protein nanofibril–iron hybrids offer a stable, high-absorption iron delivery platform for iron fortification","authors":"Jiangtao Zhou, Sueppong Gowachirapant, Christophe Zeder, Alexander Wieczorek, Jeannette Nuessli Guth, Ines Kutzli, Sebastian Siol, Ferdinand von Meyenn, Michael B. Zimmermann, Raffaele Mezzenga","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01260-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01260-6","url":null,"abstract":"Iron deficiency and anaemia affect two billion people globally. Iron fortification can help to treat anaemia, but most current fortificants are limited by low absorption and/or poor sensory properties. Here we introduce oat protein nanofibrils (OatNF) carrying ultrasmall iron nanoparticles that are engineered to carry iron in ferrous or ferric form. In a prospective cross-over stable-isotope absorption trial in young iron-deficient women (n = 52), OatNF reduced with sodium ascorbate carried mainly ferrous iron and showed high fractional absorption with water and with polyphenol-rich food, showing 1.76- and 1.65-fold higher absorption, respectively, compared with ferrous sulfate. When sodium hydroxide was used as the reducing agent, OatNF carried mainly ferric iron, which was also well absorbed and featured good sensory properties in reactive food matrices. OatNF hybrids offer a plant-based strategy for delivering highly bioavailable iron for food fortification. Nanofibrils constructed from oat protein and carrying iron nanoparticles can increase absorption compared with ferrous sulfate in human studies, offering a promising fortification strategy for treating iron deficiency and improving human nutrition.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 12","pages":"1164-1175"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-025-01260-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145477789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-07DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01262-4
Juliana Gil
While the need to transform food and agriculture through a systemic approach may seem obvious, how to do it given siloed policies and structures is unclear. Corinna Hawkes, Director of the Division of Agrifood Systems and Food Safety for the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, builds on real-world examples to show that overcoming these barriers is possible where there is focus and intention.
{"title":"Changing paradigms through practice","authors":"Juliana Gil","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01262-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01262-4","url":null,"abstract":"While the need to transform food and agriculture through a systemic approach may seem obvious, how to do it given siloed policies and structures is unclear. Corinna Hawkes, Director of the Division of Agrifood Systems and Food Safety for the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, builds on real-world examples to show that overcoming these barriers is possible where there is focus and intention.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 11","pages":"998-999"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145455651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-06DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01263-3
Paul Behrens, Joseph Poore
{"title":"Food systems boundaries are currently poorly defined","authors":"Paul Behrens, Joseph Poore","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01263-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01263-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 12","pages":"1098-1099"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145447802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-04DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01254-4
Yue Liu, Ziyu Jiang, Richard S. Cottrell, Michael F. Tlusty, Kevin Fitzsimmons, Ling Cao
Aquaculture sector growth is challenged by feed constraints, particularly the erratic availability and cost of fishmeal and oil from wild forage fish. Limited attention is given to the risks that forage fish shortfalls pose to aquaculture feed supplies. Here we develop a shortfall impact model to investigate the effects of varying forage fish supply scenarios on global fed aquaculture. Results suggest fisheries management interventions and persistent climate impact could reduce forage fish catches by 4.5% to 19.4%, resulting in an 8% to 35.2% decline in fed aquaculture production. Countries cultivating carnivorous species and leading aquaculture-producing nations are most affected. To sustain production, 1.8 million tonnes of alternative ingredients annually will be required, highlighting the urgent need for cost-effective alternatives to ensure resilience. Fishmeal and oil derived from forage fish are critical vulnerabilities for stable aquaculture feed supply. A shortfall impact model and scenario analysis explores options for bridging forage fish deficits with alternative aquaculture feeds.
{"title":"Unstable supply and future shortages of wild forage fish heighten risks to global fed aquaculture production","authors":"Yue Liu, Ziyu Jiang, Richard S. Cottrell, Michael F. Tlusty, Kevin Fitzsimmons, Ling Cao","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01254-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01254-4","url":null,"abstract":"Aquaculture sector growth is challenged by feed constraints, particularly the erratic availability and cost of fishmeal and oil from wild forage fish. Limited attention is given to the risks that forage fish shortfalls pose to aquaculture feed supplies. Here we develop a shortfall impact model to investigate the effects of varying forage fish supply scenarios on global fed aquaculture. Results suggest fisheries management interventions and persistent climate impact could reduce forage fish catches by 4.5% to 19.4%, resulting in an 8% to 35.2% decline in fed aquaculture production. Countries cultivating carnivorous species and leading aquaculture-producing nations are most affected. To sustain production, 1.8 million tonnes of alternative ingredients annually will be required, highlighting the urgent need for cost-effective alternatives to ensure resilience. Fishmeal and oil derived from forage fish are critical vulnerabilities for stable aquaculture feed supply. A shortfall impact model and scenario analysis explores options for bridging forage fish deficits with alternative aquaculture feeds.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 11","pages":"1068-1078"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145434463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-31DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01252-6
Sofie te Wierik, Fabrice DeClerck, Arthur Beusen, Dieter Gerten, Federico Maggi, Anna Norberg, Kevin Noone, Lena Schulte-Uebbing, Marco Springmann, Fiona H. M. Tang, Wim de Vries, Detlef van Vuuren, Sonja Vermeulen, Johan Rockström
Global environmental pressures from food systems threaten biodiversity and the stability of the Earth system, yet the safe operating space for food systems is unknown. Here we calculate food system boundaries as shares of planetary boundaries, proposing budgets for the food system across nine boundaries. Our results indicate that food systems are a critical driver of planetary boundary transgressions, dominating at least four transgressed boundaries (that is, biosphere integrity, land system change, freshwater change and biogeochemical flows) while strongly contributing to the transgression of two more (that is, climate change and novel entities). Moreover, global food systems are currently beyond all nine food system boundaries; moving to the safe operating space requires reducing related greenhouse gas emissions substantially, halting the conversion of intact nature to agriculture, redistributing fertilizer inputs, limiting pesticide and antibiotic use, and preserving critical freshwater flows without negatively affecting yields. Consensus exists on the urgent need for food systems to be more sustainable, but defining their environmentally safe operating space is challenging. This study proposes food system boundaries as a share of planetary boundaries, defining budgets across nine boundaries and revealing where boundary transgression is most critical.
{"title":"Identifying the safe operating space for food systems","authors":"Sofie te Wierik, Fabrice DeClerck, Arthur Beusen, Dieter Gerten, Federico Maggi, Anna Norberg, Kevin Noone, Lena Schulte-Uebbing, Marco Springmann, Fiona H. M. Tang, Wim de Vries, Detlef van Vuuren, Sonja Vermeulen, Johan Rockström","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01252-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01252-6","url":null,"abstract":"Global environmental pressures from food systems threaten biodiversity and the stability of the Earth system, yet the safe operating space for food systems is unknown. Here we calculate food system boundaries as shares of planetary boundaries, proposing budgets for the food system across nine boundaries. Our results indicate that food systems are a critical driver of planetary boundary transgressions, dominating at least four transgressed boundaries (that is, biosphere integrity, land system change, freshwater change and biogeochemical flows) while strongly contributing to the transgression of two more (that is, climate change and novel entities). Moreover, global food systems are currently beyond all nine food system boundaries; moving to the safe operating space requires reducing related greenhouse gas emissions substantially, halting the conversion of intact nature to agriculture, redistributing fertilizer inputs, limiting pesticide and antibiotic use, and preserving critical freshwater flows without negatively affecting yields. Consensus exists on the urgent need for food systems to be more sustainable, but defining their environmentally safe operating space is challenging. This study proposes food system boundaries as a share of planetary boundaries, defining budgets across nine boundaries and revealing where boundary transgression is most critical.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 12","pages":"1153-1163"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-025-01252-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145411492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-30DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01259-z
Michelle Tigchelaar, Marleen Simone Schutter
An outline of five archetypes of small-scale fisheries derived from a global dataset shows common patterns in their production strategies and contributions to sustainable development outcomes. This categorization can help resolve complexity to support their integration into decision-making and policy.
{"title":"Grappling with diversity in small-scale fisheries","authors":"Michelle Tigchelaar, Marleen Simone Schutter","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01259-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01259-z","url":null,"abstract":"An outline of five archetypes of small-scale fisheries derived from a global dataset shows common patterns in their production strategies and contributions to sustainable development outcomes. This categorization can help resolve complexity to support their integration into decision-making and policy.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 11","pages":"1004-1005"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145403924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-17DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01250-8
Xu Liu, Baozhan Wang, Jiandong Jiang
Drought reshapes microbial communities around wheat roots. Synthetic microbial communities constructed from single-cell-sorted drought-tolerant bacteria provide a promising strategy to enhance crop resilience.
Pub Date : 2025-10-16DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01246-4
Harold L. Feukam Nzudie, Xu Zhao, Peipei Tian, Pan He, Xinxin Zhang, Amar A. Hamad, Martin R. Tillotson, Innocent Onah, Shuyi Chen, Honglin Zhong, Kuishuang Feng, Ning Zhang
This study quantifies nine key nutrient gaps by comparing national demand and domestic production in each of Africa’s 54 countries. While different countries exhibited varying degrees of nutrient gaps for different nutrients, all countries were deficient in at least one nutrient, with eight being deficient in all nutrients. Based on current agricultural productivity, only seven African nations would be able to satisfy their nutrient gaps through production expansion given water and land constraints. Most studies assessing food self-sufficiency look at calories and neglect nutrient gaps. Comparing food demand and potential food production under land and water constraints, this study quantifies 9 key nutrient gaps for each of African’s 54 countries.
{"title":"National food production cannot address nutrient gaps in African countries","authors":"Harold L. Feukam Nzudie, Xu Zhao, Peipei Tian, Pan He, Xinxin Zhang, Amar A. Hamad, Martin R. Tillotson, Innocent Onah, Shuyi Chen, Honglin Zhong, Kuishuang Feng, Ning Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01246-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01246-4","url":null,"abstract":"This study quantifies nine key nutrient gaps by comparing national demand and domestic production in each of Africa’s 54 countries. While different countries exhibited varying degrees of nutrient gaps for different nutrients, all countries were deficient in at least one nutrient, with eight being deficient in all nutrients. Based on current agricultural productivity, only seven African nations would be able to satisfy their nutrient gaps through production expansion given water and land constraints. Most studies assessing food self-sufficiency look at calories and neglect nutrient gaps. Comparing food demand and potential food production under land and water constraints, this study quantifies 9 key nutrient gaps for each of African’s 54 countries.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 10","pages":"930-935"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145305409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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