Pub Date : 2024-07-19DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01012-y
Wanqi Liang, Pathmanathan Sivashankar, Yunei Hua, Wenying Li
Globalization, income growth and changing cultural trends are believed to prompt consumers in low-income countries to adopt the more affluent diet of high-income countries. This study investigates the convergence of food expenditure patterns worldwide, focusing on total food expenditure, raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages across more than 90 countries over the past decades. Contrary to prior belief, we find that food expenditure patterns of lower-income countries do not universally align with those of higher-income nations. This trend is evident across most raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages, as the income level of a country continues to play a crucial role in determining its food expenditure patterns. Importantly, expenditure patterns offer estimates rather than a precise idea of dietary intake, reflecting consumer choices shaped by economic constraints rather than exact dietary consumption. Knowing how consumers allocate their budget among different food categories helps us understand their preferences, priorities and economic accessibility. This study investigates the convergence of budget shares for total food, stimulants, raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages across more than 90 countries over the past decades.
{"title":"Global food expenditure patterns diverge between low-income and high-income countries","authors":"Wanqi Liang, Pathmanathan Sivashankar, Yunei Hua, Wenying Li","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01012-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01012-y","url":null,"abstract":"Globalization, income growth and changing cultural trends are believed to prompt consumers in low-income countries to adopt the more affluent diet of high-income countries. This study investigates the convergence of food expenditure patterns worldwide, focusing on total food expenditure, raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages across more than 90 countries over the past decades. Contrary to prior belief, we find that food expenditure patterns of lower-income countries do not universally align with those of higher-income nations. This trend is evident across most raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages, as the income level of a country continues to play a crucial role in determining its food expenditure patterns. Importantly, expenditure patterns offer estimates rather than a precise idea of dietary intake, reflecting consumer choices shaped by economic constraints rather than exact dietary consumption. Knowing how consumers allocate their budget among different food categories helps us understand their preferences, priorities and economic accessibility. This study investigates the convergence of budget shares for total food, stimulants, raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages across more than 90 countries over the past decades.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141726063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-18DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01017-7
Lorenzo Rosa, Silvan Ragettli, Ranu Sinha, Olga Zhovtonog, Winston Yu, Poolad Karimi
Ukraine supplies a large proportion of grain and oilseeds to the world market and faces disruptions from the Russian invasion in 2022. Here we explore the combined effects of the invasion and climate change on Ukraine’s irrigation. In 2021, only 1.6% of Ukraine’s cropland was irrigated. Of this portion, 73% experienced substantial declines in irrigated crop production following the invasion. We estimate that by the mid-twenty-first century, three-quarters of croplands will experience water shortages, making business-as-usual rain-fed agricultural practices inadequate in addressing the challenges posed by climate change. We explore how leveraging local surface and groundwater resources could enable sustainable irrigation expansion over 18 million hectares of croplands and form a viable climate adaptation strategy. Finally, we identify regions for implementing enhancements or expansions of irrigation systems that can foster a more resilient agricultural sector—underscoring the growing importance of irrigation in sustaining crop production in Ukraine. Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in 2023 caused water shortages in two-thirds of Ukraine’s irrigated regions, highlighting the need for localized and climate-resilient irrigation strategies to support future crop production in Ukraine.
{"title":"Regional irrigation expansion can support climate-resilient crop production in post-invasion Ukraine","authors":"Lorenzo Rosa, Silvan Ragettli, Ranu Sinha, Olga Zhovtonog, Winston Yu, Poolad Karimi","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01017-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01017-7","url":null,"abstract":"Ukraine supplies a large proportion of grain and oilseeds to the world market and faces disruptions from the Russian invasion in 2022. Here we explore the combined effects of the invasion and climate change on Ukraine’s irrigation. In 2021, only 1.6% of Ukraine’s cropland was irrigated. Of this portion, 73% experienced substantial declines in irrigated crop production following the invasion. We estimate that by the mid-twenty-first century, three-quarters of croplands will experience water shortages, making business-as-usual rain-fed agricultural practices inadequate in addressing the challenges posed by climate change. We explore how leveraging local surface and groundwater resources could enable sustainable irrigation expansion over 18 million hectares of croplands and form a viable climate adaptation strategy. Finally, we identify regions for implementing enhancements or expansions of irrigation systems that can foster a more resilient agricultural sector—underscoring the growing importance of irrigation in sustaining crop production in Ukraine. Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in 2023 caused water shortages in two-thirds of Ukraine’s irrigated regions, highlighting the need for localized and climate-resilient irrigation strategies to support future crop production in Ukraine.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141725487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-15DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01014-w
Bin Wang, Jonas Jägermeyr, Garry J. O’Leary, Daniel Wallach, Alex C. Ruane, Puyu Feng, Linchao Li, De Li Liu, Cathy Waters, Qiang Yu, Senthold Asseng, Cynthia Rosenzweig
Both climate and impact models are essential for understanding and quantifying the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Multi-model ensembles have highlighted considerable uncertainties in these assessments, yet a systematic approach to quantify these uncertainties is lacking. We propose a standardized approach to attribute uncertainties in multi-model ensemble studies, based on insights from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project. We find that crop model processes are the primary source of uncertainty in agricultural projections (over 50%), excluding unquantified hidden uncertainty that is not explicitly measured within the analyses. We propose multidimensional pathways to reduce uncertainty in climate change impact assessments. Accurately assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity is key to the development of effective and sustainable adaptation strategies. This Perspective discusses the main sources of uncertainty in such impact assessments and proposes strategies for improved crop modelling.
{"title":"Pathways to identify and reduce uncertainties in agricultural climate impact assessments","authors":"Bin Wang, Jonas Jägermeyr, Garry J. O’Leary, Daniel Wallach, Alex C. Ruane, Puyu Feng, Linchao Li, De Li Liu, Cathy Waters, Qiang Yu, Senthold Asseng, Cynthia Rosenzweig","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01014-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01014-w","url":null,"abstract":"Both climate and impact models are essential for understanding and quantifying the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Multi-model ensembles have highlighted considerable uncertainties in these assessments, yet a systematic approach to quantify these uncertainties is lacking. We propose a standardized approach to attribute uncertainties in multi-model ensemble studies, based on insights from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project. We find that crop model processes are the primary source of uncertainty in agricultural projections (over 50%), excluding unquantified hidden uncertainty that is not explicitly measured within the analyses. We propose multidimensional pathways to reduce uncertainty in climate change impact assessments. Accurately assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity is key to the development of effective and sustainable adaptation strategies. This Perspective discusses the main sources of uncertainty in such impact assessments and proposes strategies for improved crop modelling.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141618266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-10DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01015-9
Jichang Han, Brett Anthony Bryan, Yang Zhang
Policies for supporting domestic grain production propose converting large areas of marginal and low-grade arable land into strategic cropland reserves. This process will require advances in science and land engineering, and presents opportunities to revitalize social, economic and ecological systems in rural China.
{"title":"Strategic cropland reserves can strengthen China’s food security","authors":"Jichang Han, Brett Anthony Bryan, Yang Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01015-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01015-9","url":null,"abstract":"Policies for supporting domestic grain production propose converting large areas of marginal and low-grade arable land into strategic cropland reserves. This process will require advances in science and land engineering, and presents opportunities to revitalize social, economic and ecological systems in rural China.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141577702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-10DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01007-9
Shu Kee Lam, Deli Chen
Crop migration driven by climate change can exacerbate environmental pressures. Addressing the technical and socioeconomic challenges that hinder widespread adoption of sustainable practices is crucial for realizing climate-smart agriculture.
{"title":"Crop migration and environmental consequences","authors":"Shu Kee Lam, Deli Chen","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01007-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01007-9","url":null,"abstract":"Crop migration driven by climate change can exacerbate environmental pressures. Addressing the technical and socioeconomic challenges that hinder widespread adoption of sustainable practices is crucial for realizing climate-smart agriculture.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141577701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-09DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00989-w
Matthew Tom Harrison, Ke Liu
Food systems innovations — including strategic adoption of crop and livestock breeding technologies, land-use optimization and food waste inhibitors — diminish the need to import protein and avoid greenhouse gas emissions.
{"title":"Holistic systems analyses accelerate progress towards Sustainable Development Goals","authors":"Matthew Tom Harrison, Ke Liu","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-00989-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-00989-w","url":null,"abstract":"Food systems innovations — including strategic adoption of crop and livestock breeding technologies, land-use optimization and food waste inhibitors — diminish the need to import protein and avoid greenhouse gas emissions.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141561244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-09DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01011-z
Hao Zhao, Xiangwen Fan, Zhaohai Bai, Lin Ma, Chao Wang, Petr Havlík, Zhenling Cui, Juraj Balkovic, Mario Herrero, Zhou Shi, Jinfeng Chang
China’s imports of livestock feed, particularly protein-rich feeds, pose challenges to global environmental sustainability. Achieving protein self-sufficiency for food and feed in China without exceeding environmental boundaries requires integrated measures and optimization of China’s food system. Here we propose holistic food system innovation strategies consisting of three components—technological innovation, integrated spatial planning and demand-side options—to reduce protein import dependency and promote global environmental sustainability. We find that food system innovations can close almost 80% of China’s future protein gaps while reducing 57–85% of agricultural import-embodied environmental impacts. Deploying these innovations would also reduce greenhouse gas emissions (22–27%) and people’s harmful exposure to ammonia (73–81%) compared with the baseline scenario in 2050. Technological innovations play a key role in closing protein gaps, while integrated crop–livestock spatial planning is imperative for achieving environmental and health targets. China’s feed imports have a considerable environmental impact globally. This modelling study quantifies China’s potential protein self-sufficiency by simulating farming spatial relocation according to irrigation water and nitrogen surplus, as well as technological innovations and demand-side measures.
{"title":"Holistic food system innovation strategies can close up to 80% of China’s domestic protein gaps while reducing global environmental impacts","authors":"Hao Zhao, Xiangwen Fan, Zhaohai Bai, Lin Ma, Chao Wang, Petr Havlík, Zhenling Cui, Juraj Balkovic, Mario Herrero, Zhou Shi, Jinfeng Chang","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01011-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01011-z","url":null,"abstract":"China’s imports of livestock feed, particularly protein-rich feeds, pose challenges to global environmental sustainability. Achieving protein self-sufficiency for food and feed in China without exceeding environmental boundaries requires integrated measures and optimization of China’s food system. Here we propose holistic food system innovation strategies consisting of three components—technological innovation, integrated spatial planning and demand-side options—to reduce protein import dependency and promote global environmental sustainability. We find that food system innovations can close almost 80% of China’s future protein gaps while reducing 57–85% of agricultural import-embodied environmental impacts. Deploying these innovations would also reduce greenhouse gas emissions (22–27%) and people’s harmful exposure to ammonia (73–81%) compared with the baseline scenario in 2050. Technological innovations play a key role in closing protein gaps, while integrated crop–livestock spatial planning is imperative for achieving environmental and health targets. China’s feed imports have a considerable environmental impact globally. This modelling study quantifies China’s potential protein self-sufficiency by simulating farming spatial relocation according to irrigation water and nitrogen surplus, as well as technological innovations and demand-side measures.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141561583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The mitigation of methane (CH4) emissions from livestock production is crucial to China’s carbon neutrality. Here we established a high-spatiotemporal-resolution dataset of the country’s livestock CH4 emissions from 1990 to 2020 using four large-scale national livestock greenhouse gas inventory surveys. We estimate CH4 emissions to be 14.1 ± 2.0 Mt in 2020 and to increase by 13% until 2030 despite CH4 intensity per kg animal protein having decreased by 55% in the past 30 years. Approximately half of the emissions come from 13% of all Chinese counties. The technical CH4 mitigation potential is projected to be 36 ± 8% (4.4–6.9 Mt CH4) in 2030, and reducing food loss and waste could mitigate an additional 1.6 Mt of CH4. Overall, most CH4 mitigation could be achieved by increasing animal productivity and coverage of lagoon storage at carbon prices below US$100 tCO2e−1, being more cost-effective than livestock nitrous oxide mitigation in China. Reducing China’s methane emissions is key to achieving carbon neutrality. Using four national-scale field surveys, a high-resolution dataset of Chinese methane emissions over the period 1990−2020 is compiled and used to estimate past and future emission trajectories while highlighting cost-effective mitigation measures.
{"title":"Mitigation potential of methane emissions in China’s livestock sector can reach one-third by 2030 at low cost","authors":"Yue Wang, Zhiping Zhu, Hongmin Dong, Xiuming Zhang, Sitong Wang, Baojing Gu","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01010-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01010-0","url":null,"abstract":"The mitigation of methane (CH4) emissions from livestock production is crucial to China’s carbon neutrality. Here we established a high-spatiotemporal-resolution dataset of the country’s livestock CH4 emissions from 1990 to 2020 using four large-scale national livestock greenhouse gas inventory surveys. We estimate CH4 emissions to be 14.1 ± 2.0 Mt in 2020 and to increase by 13% until 2030 despite CH4 intensity per kg animal protein having decreased by 55% in the past 30 years. Approximately half of the emissions come from 13% of all Chinese counties. The technical CH4 mitigation potential is projected to be 36 ± 8% (4.4–6.9 Mt CH4) in 2030, and reducing food loss and waste could mitigate an additional 1.6 Mt of CH4. Overall, most CH4 mitigation could be achieved by increasing animal productivity and coverage of lagoon storage at carbon prices below US$100 tCO2e−1, being more cost-effective than livestock nitrous oxide mitigation in China. Reducing China’s methane emissions is key to achieving carbon neutrality. Using four national-scale field surveys, a high-resolution dataset of Chinese methane emissions over the period 1990−2020 is compiled and used to estimate past and future emission trajectories while highlighting cost-effective mitigation measures.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141561552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex) has a substantial influence over the structure and operation of food systems by setting international standards that affect the composition, structure and labelling of food. Despite the dual mandates of Codex to protect public health and ensure fair practices in food trade, food systems are increasingly unhealthy and unsustainable. An ecological reorientation of the decision-making elements that influence how Codex sets food standards—particularly mandates, governance and risk assessment—could help transform food systems towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Ahead of the Codex Alimentarius Commission Strategic Plan for 2026–2031, this Perspective proposes changes to three decision-making elements influencing how Codex sets food standards—namely, mandates, governance and risk assessment—so that new standards enable healthy and sustainable food systems.
{"title":"An ecological reorientation of the Codex Alimentarius Commission could help transform food systems","authors":"Mark Lawrence, Christine Parker, Hope Johnson, Fiona Haines, Monique Boatwright, Tanita Northcott, Phillip Baker","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01009-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01009-7","url":null,"abstract":"The Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex) has a substantial influence over the structure and operation of food systems by setting international standards that affect the composition, structure and labelling of food. Despite the dual mandates of Codex to protect public health and ensure fair practices in food trade, food systems are increasingly unhealthy and unsustainable. An ecological reorientation of the decision-making elements that influence how Codex sets food standards—particularly mandates, governance and risk assessment—could help transform food systems towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Ahead of the Codex Alimentarius Commission Strategic Plan for 2026–2031, this Perspective proposes changes to three decision-making elements influencing how Codex sets food standards—namely, mandates, governance and risk assessment—so that new standards enable healthy and sustainable food systems.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141557168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-05DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01006-w
Theresa W. Ong, Antonio Roman-Alcalá, Estelí Jiménez-Soto, Erin Jackson, Ivette Perfecto, Hannah Duff
Despite decades of resistance in the USA, agroecology is gaining momentum as a catalyst for food systems transformation, calling for coordinated action between science, practice and movement to dismantle the dominant industrial paradigm.
{"title":"Momentum for agroecology in the USA","authors":"Theresa W. Ong, Antonio Roman-Alcalá, Estelí Jiménez-Soto, Erin Jackson, Ivette Perfecto, Hannah Duff","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01006-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01006-w","url":null,"abstract":"Despite decades of resistance in the USA, agroecology is gaining momentum as a catalyst for food systems transformation, calling for coordinated action between science, practice and movement to dismantle the dominant industrial paradigm.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141539105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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