Pub Date : 2024-05-28DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00993-0
Mark Lawrence
Dietary patterns make a substantial contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Research is needed to investigate whether these dietary pattern-level GHG emission contributions can be disaggregated into food product-specific GHG emissions estimates and used to encourage citizens to switch from high- to low-emitting foods.
{"title":"Challenges associated with greenhouse gas emissions-related food guidance","authors":"Mark Lawrence","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-00993-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-00993-0","url":null,"abstract":"Dietary patterns make a substantial contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Research is needed to investigate whether these dietary pattern-level GHG emission contributions can be disaggregated into food product-specific GHG emissions estimates and used to encourage citizens to switch from high- to low-emitting foods.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 6","pages":"459-460"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141159565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-28DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00975-2
Wolfram J. Simon, Renske Hijbeek, Anita Frehner, Renee Cardinaals, Elise F. Talsma, Hannah H. E. van Zanten
Protein transition and circular food system transition are two proposed strategies for supporting food system sustainability. Here we model animal-sourced protein to plant-sourced protein ratios within a European circular food system, finding that maintaining the current animal–plant protein share while redesigning the system with circular principles resulted in the largest relative reduction of 44% in land use and 70% in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared with the current food system. Shifting from a 60:40 to a 40:60 ratio of animal-sourced proteins to plant-sourced proteins yielded a 60% reduction in land use and an 81% GHG emission reduction, while supporting nutritionally adequate diets. Differences between current and recommended total protein intake did not substantially impact minimal land use and GHG emissions. Micronutrient inadequacies occurred with less than 18 g animal protein per capita per day. Redesigning the food system varied depending on whether land use or GHG emissions were reduced—highlighting the need for a food system approach when designing policies to enhance human and planetary health. Almost half of land use and nearly three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by adopting circularity principles and reducing the ratio of animal-sourced protein to plant-sourced protein from 60:40 to 40:60 in European diets.
{"title":"Circular food system approaches can support current European protein intake levels while reducing land use and greenhouse gas emissions","authors":"Wolfram J. Simon, Renske Hijbeek, Anita Frehner, Renee Cardinaals, Elise F. Talsma, Hannah H. E. van Zanten","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-00975-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-00975-2","url":null,"abstract":"Protein transition and circular food system transition are two proposed strategies for supporting food system sustainability. Here we model animal-sourced protein to plant-sourced protein ratios within a European circular food system, finding that maintaining the current animal–plant protein share while redesigning the system with circular principles resulted in the largest relative reduction of 44% in land use and 70% in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared with the current food system. Shifting from a 60:40 to a 40:60 ratio of animal-sourced proteins to plant-sourced proteins yielded a 60% reduction in land use and an 81% GHG emission reduction, while supporting nutritionally adequate diets. Differences between current and recommended total protein intake did not substantially impact minimal land use and GHG emissions. Micronutrient inadequacies occurred with less than 18 g animal protein per capita per day. Redesigning the food system varied depending on whether land use or GHG emissions were reduced—highlighting the need for a food system approach when designing policies to enhance human and planetary health. Almost half of land use and nearly three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by adopting circularity principles and reducing the ratio of animal-sourced protein to plant-sourced protein from 60:40 to 40:60 in European diets.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 5","pages":"402-412"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-00975-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141159553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-28DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00971-6
Allison Gaines, Maria Shahid, Daisy Coyle, Eden Barrett, Michalis Hadjikakou, Jason H. Y. Wu, Fraser Taylor, Simone Pettigrew, Bruce Neal, Paraskevi Seferidi
Switching between similar food and beverage products may reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe). Here, using consumer data linked to 23,550 product-specific GHGe values, we estimated annual GHGe attributable to product purchases consumed at home in Australia and calculated reductions from specific switches. Potential changes to mean Health Star Rating, mean energy density and the proportion of ultraprocessed foods purchased were assessed. Approximately 31 million tonnes of GHGe were attributable to products consumed at home in 2019, the three highest contributors of GHGe being ‘meat and meat products’ (49%), ‘dairy’ (17%) and ‘non-alcoholic beverages’ (16%). Switching higher-emission products for ‘very similar’ lower-emission products could reduce total emissions by 26%. Switches to ‘less similar’ lower-emission products could lead to a 71% reduction. Switches had little impact on the average Health Star Rating, energy density of purchases and proportion of ultraprocessed foods purchased. Directing manufacturing and marketing towards lower-environmental-impact products and signposting such options to consumers are key. One strategy to reduce the ecological footprint of food systems is to replace higher-emissions food products with lower-emissions alternatives. This study estimates the potential impact of product switches in Australia within ‘very similar’ and ‘less similar’ food categories in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and the nutritional quality and energy density of consumer purchases.
{"title":"Switches in food and beverage product purchases can reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Australia","authors":"Allison Gaines, Maria Shahid, Daisy Coyle, Eden Barrett, Michalis Hadjikakou, Jason H. Y. Wu, Fraser Taylor, Simone Pettigrew, Bruce Neal, Paraskevi Seferidi","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-00971-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-00971-6","url":null,"abstract":"Switching between similar food and beverage products may reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe). Here, using consumer data linked to 23,550 product-specific GHGe values, we estimated annual GHGe attributable to product purchases consumed at home in Australia and calculated reductions from specific switches. Potential changes to mean Health Star Rating, mean energy density and the proportion of ultraprocessed foods purchased were assessed. Approximately 31 million tonnes of GHGe were attributable to products consumed at home in 2019, the three highest contributors of GHGe being ‘meat and meat products’ (49%), ‘dairy’ (17%) and ‘non-alcoholic beverages’ (16%). Switching higher-emission products for ‘very similar’ lower-emission products could reduce total emissions by 26%. Switches to ‘less similar’ lower-emission products could lead to a 71% reduction. Switches had little impact on the average Health Star Rating, energy density of purchases and proportion of ultraprocessed foods purchased. Directing manufacturing and marketing towards lower-environmental-impact products and signposting such options to consumers are key. One strategy to reduce the ecological footprint of food systems is to replace higher-emissions food products with lower-emissions alternatives. This study estimates the potential impact of product switches in Australia within ‘very similar’ and ‘less similar’ food categories in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and the nutritional quality and energy density of consumer purchases.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 6","pages":"524-532"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-00971-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141159560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-28DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00998-9
Biological diversity and food availability are intrinsically linked, yet trade-offs between them often arise. Further research is needed on the specific issues faced in different contexts and what could help overcome them.
{"title":"Biodiversity and food systems","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-00998-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-00998-9","url":null,"abstract":"Biological diversity and food availability are intrinsically linked, yet trade-offs between them often arise. Further research is needed on the specific issues faced in different contexts and what could help overcome them.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 5","pages":"341-341"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-00998-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141161454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-24DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00992-1
Bo Meng, Qi Yang, Zia Mehrabi, Shaopeng Wang
Crop diversification is increasingly recognized as a strategy to stabilize national food production, yet the benefits of this approach may vary across nations due to the scale dependence of crop diversity and stability. Here we use crop production data from 131 nations from 1961 to 2020 to explore the spatial scale dependence of the crop diversity–stability relationship. Drawing on ecological theory and complementary analytical approaches, we find that as the total national harvested area increases, yield stability increases. Crop diversity stabilizes national yield stability, as does an increase in the number of farms, but these stabilizing effects are weaker in smaller countries. Our findings suggest that enhancing crop diversity at the national level may not provide a de facto universal strategy for increasing yield stability across all countries—with implications for national strategies promoting crop diversification to protect against food system shocks. Crop production data from 131 nations covering six decades reveal that the stabilizing effects of crop diversity are stronger as national land area increases, with only limited stabilizing effects in the smallest nations.
{"title":"Larger nations benefit more than smaller nations from the stabilizing effects of crop diversity","authors":"Bo Meng, Qi Yang, Zia Mehrabi, Shaopeng Wang","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-00992-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-00992-1","url":null,"abstract":"Crop diversification is increasingly recognized as a strategy to stabilize national food production, yet the benefits of this approach may vary across nations due to the scale dependence of crop diversity and stability. Here we use crop production data from 131 nations from 1961 to 2020 to explore the spatial scale dependence of the crop diversity–stability relationship. Drawing on ecological theory and complementary analytical approaches, we find that as the total national harvested area increases, yield stability increases. Crop diversity stabilizes national yield stability, as does an increase in the number of farms, but these stabilizing effects are weaker in smaller countries. Our findings suggest that enhancing crop diversity at the national level may not provide a de facto universal strategy for increasing yield stability across all countries—with implications for national strategies promoting crop diversification to protect against food system shocks. Crop production data from 131 nations covering six decades reveal that the stabilizing effects of crop diversity are stronger as national land area increases, with only limited stabilizing effects in the smallest nations.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 6","pages":"491-498"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141091952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-21DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00951-w
Alejandro G. Marangoni
A sweet gel from the endocarp of cocoa pods and the concentrated juice of the cocoa fruit pulp can replace sugar in a chocolate recipe, reducing the environmental impact associated with its production and improving the nutritional value of chocolate.
{"title":"A more ecological chocolate","authors":"Alejandro G. Marangoni","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-00951-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-00951-w","url":null,"abstract":"A sweet gel from the endocarp of cocoa pods and the concentrated juice of the cocoa fruit pulp can replace sugar in a chocolate recipe, reducing the environmental impact associated with its production and improving the nutritional value of chocolate.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 5","pages":"361-362"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141074115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-21DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00967-2
Kim Mishra, Ashley Green, Johannes Burkard, Irina Gubler, Roberta Borradori, Lucas Kohler, Johannes Meuli, Ursina Krähenmann, Jotam Bergfreund, Armin Siegrist, Maria Schnyder, Alexander Mathys, Peter Fischer, Erich J. Windhab
Chocolate production faces nutritional, environmental and socio-economic challenges present in the conventional cocoa value chain. Here we developed an approach that addresses these challenges by repurposing the often-discarded pectin-rich cocoa pod endocarp and converting it into a gel. This is done using cocoa pulp juice concentrate to replace traditional sugar from sugar beets. Although swelling of fibres, proteins and starches can limit gel incorporation, our proposed chocolate formulation contains up to 20 wt% gel. It also has comparable sweet taste as traditional chocolate while offering improved nutritional value with higher fibre and reduced saturated fatty acid content. A cradle-to-factory life cycle assessment shows that large-scale production of this chocolate could reduce land use and global warming potential compared with average European dark chocolate production. The process also provides opportunities for diversification of farmers’ income and technology transfer, offering potential socio-economic benefits for cocoa-producing regions. The conventional cocoa value chain has important environmental, nutritional and socio-economic implications. This study presents a chocolate formulation that combines the cocoa pod endocarp and pulp juice to create a sweetening gel that replaces refined sugar, offering improved nutritional value and reduced environmental impact while also contributing to income diversification for smallholder farmers.
{"title":"Valorization of cocoa pod side streams improves nutritional and sustainability aspects of chocolate","authors":"Kim Mishra, Ashley Green, Johannes Burkard, Irina Gubler, Roberta Borradori, Lucas Kohler, Johannes Meuli, Ursina Krähenmann, Jotam Bergfreund, Armin Siegrist, Maria Schnyder, Alexander Mathys, Peter Fischer, Erich J. Windhab","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-00967-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-00967-2","url":null,"abstract":"Chocolate production faces nutritional, environmental and socio-economic challenges present in the conventional cocoa value chain. Here we developed an approach that addresses these challenges by repurposing the often-discarded pectin-rich cocoa pod endocarp and converting it into a gel. This is done using cocoa pulp juice concentrate to replace traditional sugar from sugar beets. Although swelling of fibres, proteins and starches can limit gel incorporation, our proposed chocolate formulation contains up to 20 wt% gel. It also has comparable sweet taste as traditional chocolate while offering improved nutritional value with higher fibre and reduced saturated fatty acid content. A cradle-to-factory life cycle assessment shows that large-scale production of this chocolate could reduce land use and global warming potential compared with average European dark chocolate production. The process also provides opportunities for diversification of farmers’ income and technology transfer, offering potential socio-economic benefits for cocoa-producing regions. The conventional cocoa value chain has important environmental, nutritional and socio-economic implications. This study presents a chocolate formulation that combines the cocoa pod endocarp and pulp juice to create a sweetening gel that replaces refined sugar, offering improved nutritional value and reduced environmental impact while also contributing to income diversification for smallholder farmers.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 5","pages":"423-432"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-00967-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141074118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-21DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00978-z
Xian Yang, Qian Gao, Hongbo Duan, Muhua Zhu, Shouyang Wang
Combatting climate change depends on demand-side mitigation strategies related to food, which is in turn contingent on explicit estimation and management of dish-level emissions. Here, on the basis of a bottom-up integrated emissions framework, we first estimate the greenhouse gas emissions of 540 dishes from 36 cuisines using data from over 800,488 restaurants in China’s provincial capital cities. By mining residents’ dietary preferences, we then design various dietary change strategies to explicitly link food emissions to the Paris Agreement pledges. The results show that China’s food system greenhouse gas emissions were approximately 4.64 GtCO2eq in 2020, accounting for 37% of total emissions, with average per-dish emissions of 8.44 kgCO2eq. Current emission patterns of food consumption in China may not be consistent with the attainment of the 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate targets, but transitioning towards low-emission cuisines and dishes could change that by reducing emissions by 38–69%. Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions related to food consumption typically consider ingredients, rather than final dishes. This study combines over 500 real-life restaurant menu dishes with data on 170 million consumed meals in China, highlighting the potential of consumers to mitigate climate change through modifications in their eating patterns.
{"title":"GHG mitigation strategies on China’s diverse dish consumption are key to meet the Paris Agreement targets","authors":"Xian Yang, Qian Gao, Hongbo Duan, Muhua Zhu, Shouyang Wang","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-00978-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-00978-z","url":null,"abstract":"Combatting climate change depends on demand-side mitigation strategies related to food, which is in turn contingent on explicit estimation and management of dish-level emissions. Here, on the basis of a bottom-up integrated emissions framework, we first estimate the greenhouse gas emissions of 540 dishes from 36 cuisines using data from over 800,488 restaurants in China’s provincial capital cities. By mining residents’ dietary preferences, we then design various dietary change strategies to explicitly link food emissions to the Paris Agreement pledges. The results show that China’s food system greenhouse gas emissions were approximately 4.64 GtCO2eq in 2020, accounting for 37% of total emissions, with average per-dish emissions of 8.44 kgCO2eq. Current emission patterns of food consumption in China may not be consistent with the attainment of the 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate targets, but transitioning towards low-emission cuisines and dishes could change that by reducing emissions by 38–69%. Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions related to food consumption typically consider ingredients, rather than final dishes. This study combines over 500 real-life restaurant menu dishes with data on 170 million consumed meals in China, highlighting the potential of consumers to mitigate climate change through modifications in their eating patterns.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 5","pages":"365-377"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141074123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-21DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00974-3
Xiao-Bing Zhang, Ugur Soytas
Food systems are responsible for around one-third of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and dish-level emissions are detailed end-use representatives of demand-side emissions. Low-carbon food consumption strategies are therefore linked to the Paris Agreement targets and might determine their achievement.
{"title":"From dish-level emissions to Paris climate goals","authors":"Xiao-Bing Zhang, Ugur Soytas","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-00974-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-00974-3","url":null,"abstract":"Food systems are responsible for around one-third of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and dish-level emissions are detailed end-use representatives of demand-side emissions. Low-carbon food consumption strategies are therefore linked to the Paris Agreement targets and might determine their achievement.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 5","pages":"349-350"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141074121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-16DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00979-y
Davide Tonelli, Lorenzo Rosa, Paolo Gabrielli, Alessandro Parente, Francesco Contino
The current centralized configuration of the ammonia industry makes the production of nitrogen fertilizers susceptible to the volatility of fossil fuel prices and involves complex supply chains with long-distance transport costs. An alternative consists of on-site decentralized ammonia production using small modular technologies, such as electric Haber–Bosch or electrocatalytic reduction. Here we evaluate the cost-competitiveness of producing low-carbon ammonia at the farm scale, from a solar agrivoltaic system, or using electricity from the grid, within a novel global fertilizer industry. Projected costs for decentralized ammonia production are compared with historical market prices from centralized production. We find that the cost-competitiveness of decentralized production relies on transport costs and supply chain disruptions. Taking both factors into account, decentralized production could achieve cost-competitiveness for up to 96% of the global ammonia demand by 2030. These results show the potential of decentralized ammonia technologies in revolutionizing the fertilizer industry, particularly in regions facing food insecurity. The production of ammonia-based nitrogen fertilizers, key to food production, is highly concentrated and therefore susceptible to price volatility and supply chain disruptions. This study examines the cost-competitiveness of a decentralized ammonia industry with low-carbon ammonia production using small modular technologies, such as electric Haber–Bosch or electrocatalytic reduction.
{"title":"Cost-competitive decentralized ammonia fertilizer production can increase food security","authors":"Davide Tonelli, Lorenzo Rosa, Paolo Gabrielli, Alessandro Parente, Francesco Contino","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-00979-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-00979-y","url":null,"abstract":"The current centralized configuration of the ammonia industry makes the production of nitrogen fertilizers susceptible to the volatility of fossil fuel prices and involves complex supply chains with long-distance transport costs. An alternative consists of on-site decentralized ammonia production using small modular technologies, such as electric Haber–Bosch or electrocatalytic reduction. Here we evaluate the cost-competitiveness of producing low-carbon ammonia at the farm scale, from a solar agrivoltaic system, or using electricity from the grid, within a novel global fertilizer industry. Projected costs for decentralized ammonia production are compared with historical market prices from centralized production. We find that the cost-competitiveness of decentralized production relies on transport costs and supply chain disruptions. Taking both factors into account, decentralized production could achieve cost-competitiveness for up to 96% of the global ammonia demand by 2030. These results show the potential of decentralized ammonia technologies in revolutionizing the fertilizer industry, particularly in regions facing food insecurity. The production of ammonia-based nitrogen fertilizers, key to food production, is highly concentrated and therefore susceptible to price volatility and supply chain disruptions. This study examines the cost-competitiveness of a decentralized ammonia industry with low-carbon ammonia production using small modular technologies, such as electric Haber–Bosch or electrocatalytic reduction.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 6","pages":"469-479"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-00979-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140949383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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