Pub Date : 2024-07-30DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01019-5
Di Tian
Climate change and Russian invasion threaten Ukraine’s crop production. Data-informed climate adaptations and water management for sustainable irrigation expansion are recommended for post-invasion recovery in Ukraine and global food security.
{"title":"Irrigation expansion in the face of war and climate change","authors":"Di Tian","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01019-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01019-5","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and Russian invasion threaten Ukraine’s crop production. Data-informed climate adaptations and water management for sustainable irrigation expansion are recommended for post-invasion recovery in Ukraine and global food security.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 8","pages":"648-649"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141794929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-29DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01020-y
Erik Millstone, Tim Lang
{"title":"Author Correction: An approach to conflicts of interest in UK food regulatory institutions","authors":"Erik Millstone, Tim Lang","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01020-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01020-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 8","pages":"714-714"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-01020-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141794454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-29DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01029-3
Fernando Aramburu-Merlos, Marloes P. van Loon, Martin K. van Ittersum, Patricio Grassini
Identifying untapped opportunities for crop production improvement in current cropland is crucial to guide food availability interventions. Here we integrated an agronomically robust bottom-up approach with machine learning to generate global maps of yield potential of high resolution (ca. 1 km2 at the Equator) and accuracy for maize, wheat and rice. These maps serve as a robust reference to benchmark farmers’ yields in the context of current cropping systems and water regimes and can help to identify areas with large room to increase crop yields. High-resolution global maps of yield potential were created through crop modelling and machine learning. These maps can help orient agricultural research and development programmes and assess food security and land use from local to regional levels.
{"title":"High-resolution global maps of yield potential with local relevance for targeted crop production improvement","authors":"Fernando Aramburu-Merlos, Marloes P. van Loon, Martin K. van Ittersum, Patricio Grassini","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01029-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01029-3","url":null,"abstract":"Identifying untapped opportunities for crop production improvement in current cropland is crucial to guide food availability interventions. Here we integrated an agronomically robust bottom-up approach with machine learning to generate global maps of yield potential of high resolution (ca. 1 km2 at the Equator) and accuracy for maize, wheat and rice. These maps serve as a robust reference to benchmark farmers’ yields in the context of current cropping systems and water regimes and can help to identify areas with large room to increase crop yields. High-resolution global maps of yield potential were created through crop modelling and machine learning. These maps can help orient agricultural research and development programmes and assess food security and land use from local to regional levels.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 8","pages":"667-672"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141790960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-24DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01016-8
Lynnette M. Neufeld, Edward A. Frongillo, Jennifer C. Coates, Victor M. Aguayo, Francesco Branca
{"title":"Consensus on commitment and action to monitor healthy diets","authors":"Lynnette M. Neufeld, Edward A. Frongillo, Jennifer C. Coates, Victor M. Aguayo, Francesco Branca","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01016-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01016-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"533-534"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141763665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-19DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01012-y
Wanqi Liang, Pathmanathan Sivashankar, Yunei Hua, Wenying Li
Globalization, income growth and changing cultural trends are believed to prompt consumers in low-income countries to adopt the more affluent diet of high-income countries. This study investigates the convergence of food expenditure patterns worldwide, focusing on total food expenditure, raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages across more than 90 countries over the past decades. Contrary to prior belief, we find that food expenditure patterns of lower-income countries do not universally align with those of higher-income nations. This trend is evident across most raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages, as the income level of a country continues to play a crucial role in determining its food expenditure patterns. Importantly, expenditure patterns offer estimates rather than a precise idea of dietary intake, reflecting consumer choices shaped by economic constraints rather than exact dietary consumption. Knowing how consumers allocate their budget among different food categories helps us understand their preferences, priorities and economic accessibility. This study investigates the convergence of budget shares for total food, stimulants, raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages across more than 90 countries over the past decades.
{"title":"Global food expenditure patterns diverge between low-income and high-income countries","authors":"Wanqi Liang, Pathmanathan Sivashankar, Yunei Hua, Wenying Li","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01012-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01012-y","url":null,"abstract":"Globalization, income growth and changing cultural trends are believed to prompt consumers in low-income countries to adopt the more affluent diet of high-income countries. This study investigates the convergence of food expenditure patterns worldwide, focusing on total food expenditure, raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages across more than 90 countries over the past decades. Contrary to prior belief, we find that food expenditure patterns of lower-income countries do not universally align with those of higher-income nations. This trend is evident across most raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages, as the income level of a country continues to play a crucial role in determining its food expenditure patterns. Importantly, expenditure patterns offer estimates rather than a precise idea of dietary intake, reflecting consumer choices shaped by economic constraints rather than exact dietary consumption. Knowing how consumers allocate their budget among different food categories helps us understand their preferences, priorities and economic accessibility. This study investigates the convergence of budget shares for total food, stimulants, raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages across more than 90 countries over the past decades.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"592-602"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141726063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-18DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01017-7
Lorenzo Rosa, Silvan Ragettli, Ranu Sinha, Olga Zhovtonog, Winston Yu, Poolad Karimi
Ukraine supplies a large proportion of grain and oilseeds to the world market and faces disruptions from the Russian invasion in 2022. Here we explore the combined effects of the invasion and climate change on Ukraine’s irrigation. In 2021, only 1.6% of Ukraine’s cropland was irrigated. Of this portion, 73% experienced substantial declines in irrigated crop production following the invasion. We estimate that by the mid-twenty-first century, three-quarters of croplands will experience water shortages, making business-as-usual rain-fed agricultural practices inadequate in addressing the challenges posed by climate change. We explore how leveraging local surface and groundwater resources could enable sustainable irrigation expansion over 18 million hectares of croplands and form a viable climate adaptation strategy. Finally, we identify regions for implementing enhancements or expansions of irrigation systems that can foster a more resilient agricultural sector—underscoring the growing importance of irrigation in sustaining crop production in Ukraine. Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in 2023 caused water shortages in two-thirds of Ukraine’s irrigated regions, highlighting the need for localized and climate-resilient irrigation strategies to support future crop production in Ukraine.
{"title":"Regional irrigation expansion can support climate-resilient crop production in post-invasion Ukraine","authors":"Lorenzo Rosa, Silvan Ragettli, Ranu Sinha, Olga Zhovtonog, Winston Yu, Poolad Karimi","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01017-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01017-7","url":null,"abstract":"Ukraine supplies a large proportion of grain and oilseeds to the world market and faces disruptions from the Russian invasion in 2022. Here we explore the combined effects of the invasion and climate change on Ukraine’s irrigation. In 2021, only 1.6% of Ukraine’s cropland was irrigated. Of this portion, 73% experienced substantial declines in irrigated crop production following the invasion. We estimate that by the mid-twenty-first century, three-quarters of croplands will experience water shortages, making business-as-usual rain-fed agricultural practices inadequate in addressing the challenges posed by climate change. We explore how leveraging local surface and groundwater resources could enable sustainable irrigation expansion over 18 million hectares of croplands and form a viable climate adaptation strategy. Finally, we identify regions for implementing enhancements or expansions of irrigation systems that can foster a more resilient agricultural sector—underscoring the growing importance of irrigation in sustaining crop production in Ukraine. Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in 2023 caused water shortages in two-thirds of Ukraine’s irrigated regions, highlighting the need for localized and climate-resilient irrigation strategies to support future crop production in Ukraine.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 8","pages":"684-692"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141725487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-15DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01014-w
Bin Wang, Jonas Jägermeyr, Garry J. O’Leary, Daniel Wallach, Alex C. Ruane, Puyu Feng, Linchao Li, De Li Liu, Cathy Waters, Qiang Yu, Senthold Asseng, Cynthia Rosenzweig
Both climate and impact models are essential for understanding and quantifying the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Multi-model ensembles have highlighted considerable uncertainties in these assessments, yet a systematic approach to quantify these uncertainties is lacking. We propose a standardized approach to attribute uncertainties in multi-model ensemble studies, based on insights from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project. We find that crop model processes are the primary source of uncertainty in agricultural projections (over 50%), excluding unquantified hidden uncertainty that is not explicitly measured within the analyses. We propose multidimensional pathways to reduce uncertainty in climate change impact assessments. Accurately assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity is key to the development of effective and sustainable adaptation strategies. This Perspective discusses the main sources of uncertainty in such impact assessments and proposes strategies for improved crop modelling.
{"title":"Pathways to identify and reduce uncertainties in agricultural climate impact assessments","authors":"Bin Wang, Jonas Jägermeyr, Garry J. O’Leary, Daniel Wallach, Alex C. Ruane, Puyu Feng, Linchao Li, De Li Liu, Cathy Waters, Qiang Yu, Senthold Asseng, Cynthia Rosenzweig","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01014-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01014-w","url":null,"abstract":"Both climate and impact models are essential for understanding and quantifying the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Multi-model ensembles have highlighted considerable uncertainties in these assessments, yet a systematic approach to quantify these uncertainties is lacking. We propose a standardized approach to attribute uncertainties in multi-model ensemble studies, based on insights from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project. We find that crop model processes are the primary source of uncertainty in agricultural projections (over 50%), excluding unquantified hidden uncertainty that is not explicitly measured within the analyses. We propose multidimensional pathways to reduce uncertainty in climate change impact assessments. Accurately assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity is key to the development of effective and sustainable adaptation strategies. This Perspective discusses the main sources of uncertainty in such impact assessments and proposes strategies for improved crop modelling.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"550-556"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141618266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-10DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01015-9
Jichang Han, Brett Anthony Bryan, Yang Zhang
Policies for supporting domestic grain production propose converting large areas of marginal and low-grade arable land into strategic cropland reserves. This process will require advances in science and land engineering, and presents opportunities to revitalize social, economic and ecological systems in rural China.
{"title":"Strategic cropland reserves can strengthen China’s food security","authors":"Jichang Han, Brett Anthony Bryan, Yang Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01015-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01015-9","url":null,"abstract":"Policies for supporting domestic grain production propose converting large areas of marginal and low-grade arable land into strategic cropland reserves. This process will require advances in science and land engineering, and presents opportunities to revitalize social, economic and ecological systems in rural China.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"535-538"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141577702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-10DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01007-9
Shu Kee Lam, Deli Chen
Crop migration driven by climate change can exacerbate environmental pressures. Addressing the technical and socioeconomic challenges that hinder widespread adoption of sustainable practices is crucial for realizing climate-smart agriculture.
{"title":"Crop migration and environmental consequences","authors":"Shu Kee Lam, Deli Chen","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01007-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01007-9","url":null,"abstract":"Crop migration driven by climate change can exacerbate environmental pressures. Addressing the technical and socioeconomic challenges that hinder widespread adoption of sustainable practices is crucial for realizing climate-smart agriculture.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"542-543"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141577701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-09DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00989-w
Matthew Tom Harrison, Ke Liu
Food systems innovations — including strategic adoption of crop and livestock breeding technologies, land-use optimization and food waste inhibitors — diminish the need to import protein and avoid greenhouse gas emissions.
{"title":"Holistic systems analyses accelerate progress towards Sustainable Development Goals","authors":"Matthew Tom Harrison, Ke Liu","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-00989-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-00989-w","url":null,"abstract":"Food systems innovations — including strategic adoption of crop and livestock breeding technologies, land-use optimization and food waste inhibitors — diminish the need to import protein and avoid greenhouse gas emissions.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"5 7","pages":"544-545"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141561244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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