Pub Date : 2026-01-19DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01279-9
Paul M. Lohmann, Alice Pizzo, Jan M. Bauer, Tarun M. Khanna, Sarah L. Flecke, Max Callaghan, Jan C. Minx, Lucia A. Reisch
Shifting consumers towards more sustainable food consumption and avoiding food waste have been identified as key levers in mitigating food systems-related climate change impacts. Here we conducted a machine-learning-assisted systematic review and meta-analysis of 306 effect sizes from 110 articles, covering over 2.4 million observations, to assess the effectiveness of demand-side interventions targeting actual or incentivized behaviours. On average, we find small effect sizes across both food consumption and food waste interventions. Effect sizes vary substantially across intervention types, with certain choice architecture interventions, such as availability and defaults, driving much of the overall effect in both domains, while incentives also show promise in reducing food waste. These effects remain robust even after accounting for severe publication bias, which notably reduces average estimates for other intervention types. Sensitivity analyses further underscore the need for future research to systematically identify when, how and why interventions are effective. Demand-side food policies show small average effects, with effectiveness varying across intervention types. Targeted strategies and a better understanding of how context and population influence outcomes can advance food system sustainability.
{"title":"A meta-analysis assessing the effectiveness of demand-side interventions for sustainable food consumption and food waste reduction","authors":"Paul M. Lohmann, Alice Pizzo, Jan M. Bauer, Tarun M. Khanna, Sarah L. Flecke, Max Callaghan, Jan C. Minx, Lucia A. Reisch","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01279-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01279-9","url":null,"abstract":"Shifting consumers towards more sustainable food consumption and avoiding food waste have been identified as key levers in mitigating food systems-related climate change impacts. Here we conducted a machine-learning-assisted systematic review and meta-analysis of 306 effect sizes from 110 articles, covering over 2.4 million observations, to assess the effectiveness of demand-side interventions targeting actual or incentivized behaviours. On average, we find small effect sizes across both food consumption and food waste interventions. Effect sizes vary substantially across intervention types, with certain choice architecture interventions, such as availability and defaults, driving much of the overall effect in both domains, while incentives also show promise in reducing food waste. These effects remain robust even after accounting for severe publication bias, which notably reduces average estimates for other intervention types. Sensitivity analyses further underscore the need for future research to systematically identify when, how and why interventions are effective. Demand-side food policies show small average effects, with effectiveness varying across intervention types. Targeted strategies and a better understanding of how context and population influence outcomes can advance food system sustainability.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"7 1","pages":"88-99"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146004607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-19DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01283-z
Anniek J. Kortleve, José M. Mogollón, Helen Harwatt, Martin Bruckner, Baoxiao Liu, Paul Behrens
Dietary shifts, particularly reduced animal-sourced food (ASF) consumption in high-income countries, risk stranding substantial ASF-related assets. Linking agricultural and economic data to global multi-regional input–output models, we show that ASF assets represent 78% of EU27 + UK fixed agricultural assets, with €158 billion linked to livestock and €100 billion to feed production. We estimate that ASF reductions in EU27 + UK consumption of 9.5%, 60% and 100% could strand 18%, 50% and 77% of these assets, respectively. Current depreciation rates suggest there is generally sufficient time to phase out assets, offering pathways to limit stranding. Policy- and climate-induced stranding risks are intertwined and should both be incorporated into financial modelling as overlapping transition pressures. Given food producers’ high exposure to stranding risks cascade throughout supply chains, integrated policy support to repurpose or phase out ASF-related assets is essential to avoid delays in sustainable food system transformations. Stranded assets could pose a challenge to food system transformation. Estimates of the stranded agricultural assets that may arise from a shift to plant-based diets in the European Union and UK underscore the need to refocus support mechanisms for ensuring a just transition.
{"title":"Stranded assets in European agriculture during food system transformations","authors":"Anniek J. Kortleve, José M. Mogollón, Helen Harwatt, Martin Bruckner, Baoxiao Liu, Paul Behrens","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01283-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01283-z","url":null,"abstract":"Dietary shifts, particularly reduced animal-sourced food (ASF) consumption in high-income countries, risk stranding substantial ASF-related assets. Linking agricultural and economic data to global multi-regional input–output models, we show that ASF assets represent 78% of EU27 + UK fixed agricultural assets, with €158 billion linked to livestock and €100 billion to feed production. We estimate that ASF reductions in EU27 + UK consumption of 9.5%, 60% and 100% could strand 18%, 50% and 77% of these assets, respectively. Current depreciation rates suggest there is generally sufficient time to phase out assets, offering pathways to limit stranding. Policy- and climate-induced stranding risks are intertwined and should both be incorporated into financial modelling as overlapping transition pressures. Given food producers’ high exposure to stranding risks cascade throughout supply chains, integrated policy support to repurpose or phase out ASF-related assets is essential to avoid delays in sustainable food system transformations. Stranded assets could pose a challenge to food system transformation. Estimates of the stranded agricultural assets that may arise from a shift to plant-based diets in the European Union and UK underscore the need to refocus support mechanisms for ensuring a just transition.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"7 1","pages":"38-44"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-025-01283-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146004638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-19DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01288-8
Zia Mehrabi
The economic stakes that impede the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the agrifood sector are high. In the European Union and UK, three dietary transition scenarios representing moderate, low and zero animal-sourced food consumption are estimated to lead to €61 billion, €168 billion and €255 billion in stranded assets, respectively.
{"title":"Bearing the costs of a climate-safe food transition","authors":"Zia Mehrabi","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01288-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01288-8","url":null,"abstract":"The economic stakes that impede the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the agrifood sector are high. In the European Union and UK, three dietary transition scenarios representing moderate, low and zero animal-sourced food consumption are estimated to lead to €61 billion, €168 billion and €255 billion in stranded assets, respectively.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"7 1","pages":"11-12"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146004621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-16DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01285-x
Rui Wang (, ), Wenfeng He (, ), Yumiao Xue (, ), Yang Yu (, ), Beibei Liu (, )
Agricultural irrigation sustains food production and climate adaptation but intensifies energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Incorporating irrigation into the power grid’s demand-side response presents a promising yet underexplored opportunity for achieving energy and carbon co-benefits during the global energy transition. We develop the Irrigation Scheduling Optimization Model within the grain–water–energy–carbon nexus to align irrigation schedules with renewable-energy intermittency. Using China as a case study, we demonstrate that fine-tuning irrigation schedules reduces emissions by 11.1%–25.8% under current low-renewable penetrated grids and by 16.5%–56.9% as renewables penetration increases, by using up to 92.3% of otherwise curtailed renewable power. A combined strategy of energy transition, irrigation optimization and diesel-to-electricity electrification could achieve ~42.1 MtCO2e (92.2%) of greenhouse gas savings by the 2050s, approaching net zero emissions. Efficacy peaks when local renewable shares reach 65%–70%, highlighting crucial spatiotemporal windows. Our study positions agricultural irrigation as a nature-integrated form of virtual energy storage, offering a pathway to enhance grid resilience and support low-carbon climate adaptation. Agricultural irrigation is energy intensive and a key source of carbon emissions. This study shows that aligning irrigation schedules with renewable energy availability can cut emissions, ease grid load and use surplus clean power. Using China as a case study, it demonstrates a scalable, low-carbon strategy that maintains crop productivity while supporting the energy transition.
{"title":"Optimizing agricultural irrigation as virtual energy storage to match renewable power profiles unlocks climate benefits during the energy transition","authors":"Rui Wang \u0000 (, ), Wenfeng He \u0000 (, ), Yumiao Xue \u0000 (, ), Yang Yu \u0000 (, ), Beibei Liu \u0000 (, )","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01285-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01285-x","url":null,"abstract":"Agricultural irrigation sustains food production and climate adaptation but intensifies energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Incorporating irrigation into the power grid’s demand-side response presents a promising yet underexplored opportunity for achieving energy and carbon co-benefits during the global energy transition. We develop the Irrigation Scheduling Optimization Model within the grain–water–energy–carbon nexus to align irrigation schedules with renewable-energy intermittency. Using China as a case study, we demonstrate that fine-tuning irrigation schedules reduces emissions by 11.1%–25.8% under current low-renewable penetrated grids and by 16.5%–56.9% as renewables penetration increases, by using up to 92.3% of otherwise curtailed renewable power. A combined strategy of energy transition, irrigation optimization and diesel-to-electricity electrification could achieve ~42.1 MtCO2e (92.2%) of greenhouse gas savings by the 2050s, approaching net zero emissions. Efficacy peaks when local renewable shares reach 65%–70%, highlighting crucial spatiotemporal windows. Our study positions agricultural irrigation as a nature-integrated form of virtual energy storage, offering a pathway to enhance grid resilience and support low-carbon climate adaptation. Agricultural irrigation is energy intensive and a key source of carbon emissions. This study shows that aligning irrigation schedules with renewable energy availability can cut emissions, ease grid load and use surplus clean power. Using China as a case study, it demonstrates a scalable, low-carbon strategy that maintains crop productivity while supporting the energy transition.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"7 1","pages":"27-37"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145986227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-15DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01291-z
Rob Vos, Will Martin
Given the unique characteristics of the agrifood sector, a review of six potential policy paths for greenhouse gas emission reductions shows innovative green farming practices — such as alternate wetting and drying for rice and better animal feeding techniques — as the most promising and attractive path. These approaches can rapidly and substantially lower emissions, address leakage, raise farmer incomes and reduce food prices through partial repurposing of existing farm support.
{"title":"Green innovations are the best policy option for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems","authors":"Rob Vos, Will Martin","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01291-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01291-z","url":null,"abstract":"Given the unique characteristics of the agrifood sector, a review of six potential policy paths for greenhouse gas emission reductions shows innovative green farming practices — such as alternate wetting and drying for rice and better animal feeding techniques — as the most promising and attractive path. These approaches can rapidly and substantially lower emissions, address leakage, raise farmer incomes and reduce food prices through partial repurposing of existing farm support.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"7 1","pages":"6-9"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145971762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-12DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01289-7
Laura Lara-Castor, Dariush Mozaffarian, Jessica Jones-Smith, Simon Barquera
Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have adverse effects on health and the environment, but comprehensive and sustained strategies to curb their intake are lacking. While several countries have implemented policies, a broad suite of effective approaches has been challenging to enact and evaluate due to insufficient administrative or political capacity and strong influence from transnational corporations. Continued research, advocacy and support are needed to successfully implement, monitor, evaluate and revise strategies to reduce SSB intakes worldwide.
{"title":"The growing public health problem of sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and promising strategies to reduce its burden","authors":"Laura Lara-Castor, Dariush Mozaffarian, Jessica Jones-Smith, Simon Barquera","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01289-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01289-7","url":null,"abstract":"Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have adverse effects on health and the environment, but comprehensive and sustained strategies to curb their intake are lacking. While several countries have implemented policies, a broad suite of effective approaches has been challenging to enact and evaluate due to insufficient administrative or political capacity and strong influence from transnational corporations. Continued research, advocacy and support are needed to successfully implement, monitor, evaluate and revise strategies to reduce SSB intakes worldwide.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"7 1","pages":"1-3"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145955958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-02DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01280-2
Yiwen Liao, Li-Mei Zhang, Dawei Xu, Qinghao Cao, Hang Wang, Ping Fang, Yong-Guan Zhu, Yuhong Cao
Biological nitrogen fixation through foliar application of nitrogen-fixing bacteria presents a promising route to reduce reliance on synthetic fertilizers but remains limited by challenges in bacterial adhesion and survival in the phyllosphere. We developed a nanocoated inoculant encapsulating Klebsiella variicola W12 using metal–phenolic networks and sodium alginate for enhanced nitrogen fixation under nitrogen-depleted conditions. The nanocoating improved bacterial resistance to UV radiation, oxidative stress, aerobic conditions and desiccation, enhancing adhesion and biofilm formation on leaf surfaces. Colonization increased 3.3-fold compared to non-coated bacteria at 14 days after application, improving epiphytic and endophytic persistence. The nanocoated bacteria contributed 27.89% of total plant nitrogen, over twice that of non-coated bacteria, resulting in a 1.4-fold increase in rice fresh weight after 54 days. Field trials demonstrated potential savings of chemical fertilizer of 74.38 kg N ha−1, highlighting a sustainable and effective strategy to improve crop productivity with reduced reliance on chemical nitrogen fertilizers and environmental impacts. Nitrogen-fixing bacteria offer a promising route to reduce reliance on synthetic fertilizers, but their effectiveness is hindered by environmental stresses that limit survival on leaf surfaces. This study introduces a nanocoating strategy that enables robust foliar colonization of Klebsiella variicola, enhancing nitrogen fixation and improving rice yield under low-fertilizer conditions.
通过叶面施用固氮细菌进行生物固氮是减少对合成肥料依赖的一种有希望的途径，但仍然受到细菌在根层圈中粘附和生存的挑战的限制。我们开发了一种纳米包被的接种剂，利用金属酚网络和海藻酸钠包被水痘克雷伯菌W12，在缺氮条件下增强固氮能力。纳米涂层提高了细菌对紫外线辐射、氧化应激、有氧条件和干燥的抵抗力，增强了叶片表面的粘附和生物膜的形成。在施用后14天，与未包被的细菌相比，定植量增加了3.3倍，提高了附生和内生的持久性。纳米包被菌贡献了27.89%的植株总氮，是未包被菌的2倍多，54天后水稻鲜重增加1.4倍。田间试验表明，施用化学肥料可节约74.38 kg N - hm -1氮肥，突出了在减少对化学氮肥依赖和减少环境影响的同时提高作物生产力的可持续和有效战略。
{"title":"Stable foliar colonization of nanocoated nitrogen-fixing bacteria enhances crop nitrogen supply","authors":"Yiwen Liao, Li-Mei Zhang, Dawei Xu, Qinghao Cao, Hang Wang, Ping Fang, Yong-Guan Zhu, Yuhong Cao","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01280-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01280-2","url":null,"abstract":"Biological nitrogen fixation through foliar application of nitrogen-fixing bacteria presents a promising route to reduce reliance on synthetic fertilizers but remains limited by challenges in bacterial adhesion and survival in the phyllosphere. We developed a nanocoated inoculant encapsulating Klebsiella variicola W12 using metal–phenolic networks and sodium alginate for enhanced nitrogen fixation under nitrogen-depleted conditions. The nanocoating improved bacterial resistance to UV radiation, oxidative stress, aerobic conditions and desiccation, enhancing adhesion and biofilm formation on leaf surfaces. Colonization increased 3.3-fold compared to non-coated bacteria at 14 days after application, improving epiphytic and endophytic persistence. The nanocoated bacteria contributed 27.89% of total plant nitrogen, over twice that of non-coated bacteria, resulting in a 1.4-fold increase in rice fresh weight after 54 days. Field trials demonstrated potential savings of chemical fertilizer of 74.38 kg N ha−1, highlighting a sustainable and effective strategy to improve crop productivity with reduced reliance on chemical nitrogen fertilizers and environmental impacts. Nitrogen-fixing bacteria offer a promising route to reduce reliance on synthetic fertilizers, but their effectiveness is hindered by environmental stresses that limit survival on leaf surfaces. This study introduces a nanocoating strategy that enables robust foliar colonization of Klebsiella variicola, enhancing nitrogen fixation and improving rice yield under low-fertilizer conditions.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"7 1","pages":"55-65"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145893330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-19DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01287-9
This year’s conflicts have further exposed the political nature of the global food crisis, inviting reflection on how this shapes the practice and the outcomes of scientific research.
今年的冲突进一步暴露了全球粮食危机的政治本质，引发了人们对这如何影响科学研究实践和成果的思考。
{"title":"A political crisis, after all","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01287-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01287-9","url":null,"abstract":"This year’s conflicts have further exposed the political nature of the global food crisis, inviting reflection on how this shapes the practice and the outcomes of scientific research.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 12","pages":"1097-1097"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-025-01287-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145779616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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