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Transfer of embodied carbon emissions from provincial transportation industry in China 中国省际交通运输业隐含碳排放转移研究
Pub Date : 2023-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2023.100105
Qiang Cui, Zi-ke Jia

This study employs a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model to measure these emissions and examines the growth and transfer patterns of embodied carbon in the transportation sector across different regions of China. Then we utilize Structure Decomposition Analysis (SDA) to identify the driving factors behind the observed emissions patterns. The findings of the study indicate that the transfer of inter-provincial transportation embodied carbon emissions follows a general trend of shifting from economically developed areas to underdeveloped areas along the industrial chain. The study also highlights that the per capita demand structure plays a crucial role in driving the increase in transportation embodied carbon emissions. On the other hand, the study identifies the direct carbon emission coefficient as a key factor that inhibits the rise in transportation embodied carbon emissions.

本研究采用多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型来衡量这些排放,并考察了中国不同地区交通运输部门隐含碳的增长和转移模式。然后,我们利用结构分解分析(SDA)来确定观测到的排放模式背后的驱动因素。研究结果表明,省际交通隐含碳排放的转移沿产业链呈现由经济发达地区向欠发达地区转移的大趋势。该研究还强调,人均需求结构在推动交通隐含碳排放增加方面起着至关重要的作用。另一方面,研究发现直接碳排放系数是抑制交通隐含碳排放量上升的关键因素。
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引用次数: 1
Persona Design Methodology for Work-Commute Travel Behaviour Using Latent Class Cluster Analysis 基于潜在类聚类分析的上班通勤行为人格设计方法
Pub Date : 2023-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2023.100095
Sinziana I. Rasca , Karin Markvica , Benjamin Biesinger

The present study proposes a new methodology that combines quantitative and qualitative data for the generation of representative personas for commuters. The profiles can be used to better understand their travel behaviour and mode choices. The research is based on the example of the region of Agder in Norway and aims to overcome the persona development shortcomings identified by previous researchers. Data from a regional travel behaviour survey (N= 1 849) is analysed using latent class cluster analysis (LCCA), and enriched with qualitative input from 32 interviews, and information provided by an expert panel. This results in a set of 20 representative persona profiles for the case study region. The proposed methodology is easily replicable in other urban networks and has the potential to provide insight into the mobility behaviour and needs of specific groups of people in order to adapt the transport services and encourage climate-friendly behaviour.

本研究提出了一种新的方法,结合定量和定性数据,为通勤者生成具有代表性的人物角色。这些档案可以用来更好地了解他们的旅行行为和模式选择。这项研究以挪威阿格德地区为例,旨在克服之前研究人员发现的角色发展缺陷。区域旅行行为调查的数据(N=1849)使用潜在类别聚类分析(LCCA)进行分析,并通过32次访谈的定性输入和专家小组提供的信息进行丰富。这就为案例研究区域产生了一组20个具有代表性的人物档案。拟议的方法很容易在其他城市网络中推广,有可能深入了解特定人群的流动行为和需求,以调整交通服务并鼓励气候友好行为。
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引用次数: 0
Examining associations with on-time performance and identifying relevant road network, demographic, socioeconomic and land use characteristics within the bus stop vicinity for proactive and reliable public transportation system planning 检查与准时表现的关系,并确定公交车站附近的相关道路网络、人口、社会经济和土地利用特征,以进行积极可靠的公共交通系统规划
Pub Date : 2023-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2023.100094
Raunak Mishra , Srinivas S. Pulugurtha , Sonu Mathew

Growing population, rapid urbanization, and increasing travel demand emphasize the need for reliable public transportation systems and sustainable transportation planning. A reliable bus service fosters a more significant, satisfied, and committed base of users. This research focuses on examining the association between on-time performance (OTP) and road network, demographic, socioeconomic, and land use characteristics to identify relevant external factors for proactive and reliable public transportation system planning. The analysis was conducted at a bus stop level. Bus arrival/departure data from the Charlotte Area Transit System (CATS) was obtained. The road network, demographic, socioeconomic, and land use characteristics were captured within 0.25-mile and 0.50-mile buffers. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted to understand the association between OTP and road network, demographic, socioeconomic, and land use characteristics by day of the week and time of the day. The results show that OTP is associated with external factors such as the number of signalized or cul-de-sac/dead-end intersections, number of lanes, network density, population, income (median and total), and land use types related to residential and commercial/employment purposes within the bus stop vicinity. The findings provide vital insights for transit agencies to enhance scheduling, service and maximize benefits, effectively utilize available resources, plan, and provide equitable services to all riders.

不断增长的人口、快速的城市化和不断增长的出行需求强调了对可靠的公共交通系统和可持续交通规划的需求。可靠的公交服务可以培养更重要、更满意、更忠诚的用户群。本研究的重点是检查准时绩效(OTP)与道路网络、人口、社会经济和土地利用特征之间的关系,以确定积极可靠的公共交通系统规划的相关外部因素。分析是在公共汽车站层面进行的。从夏洛特地区交通系统(CATS)获得了公交车到达/离开数据。0.25英里和0.50英里缓冲区内的道路网络、人口、社会经济和土地利用特征。进行Pearson相关分析,以了解OTP与道路网络、人口统计、社会经济和土地利用特征之间的关联(按一周中的哪一天和一天中的某一时间)。结果表明,OTP与外部因素有关,如信号交叉口或死胡同/尽头交叉口的数量、车道数量、网络密度、人口、收入(中位数和总收入)以及公交车站附近与住宅和商业/就业目的相关的土地使用类型。这些发现为交通机构提供了重要的见解,以加强调度、服务和最大限度地提高效益,有效利用可用资源,制定计划,并为所有乘客提供公平的服务。
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引用次数: 0
Divergent or identical? Revealed preference modeling of individual and group ARIS passengers’ airport arrival behaviors 分歧还是相同?ARIS个体和群体旅客机场到达行为的偏好揭示模型
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2023.100084
Yonglei Jiang , Hongyu Tang , Wenqian Zou , Shunan Yu

Considering the high ratio of group travellers to individual travellers among air-rail integrated service (ARIS) passengers, the airport arrival behaviors of both individual and group ARIS passengers are thoroughly analyzed and compared with the multinomial logit model and mixed multinomial logit model by taking the group as the decision unit. Compared with individual ARIS passengers, the results show that: first, the airport arrival behaviors of group ARIS passengers should be analyzed separately according to the goodness of fit; second, group ARIS passengers attach more importance to both group sociodemographics and ARIS trip attributes; and third, groups with close member relations and a high ratio of males prefer alternatives with the shortest total ground access time. Finally, group ARIS passengers consistently prefer ARIS trip attributes after conducting group decision-making.

考虑到航空-铁路综合服务(ARIS)乘客中团体旅客与个人旅客的比例较高,以团体为决策单元,对个人和团体ARIS乘客的机场到达行为进行了深入分析,并与多项式logit模型和混合多项式logit模型进行了比较。与个别ARIS旅客相比,结果表明:首先,应根据拟合优度对ARIS旅客群体的机场到达行为进行单独分析;第二,群体ARIS乘客更重视群体社会人口统计和ARIS旅行属性;第三,成员关系密切、男性比例高的群体更喜欢总地面进入时间最短的替代方案。最后,在进行群体决策后,群体ARIS乘客始终更喜欢ARIS行程属性。
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引用次数: 0
MaaS for the masses: Potential transit accessibility gains and required policies under Mobility-as-a-Service 面向大众的MaaS:移动即服务下潜在的交通可达性收益和所需政策
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2023.100086
Marc Hasselwander , Simon Nieland , Kathleen Dematera-Contreras , Mirko Goletz

Transit accessibility, the conditions and distance under which people have access to transit services, is one of the key indicators to assess the performance of cities' transit systems. The more people can access the transit system, the better its performance in terms of social equity (e.g., more equal access to jobs, education, and other opportunities). To inform policymakers and support decision-making, it is crucial to measure potential transit accessibility changes of transport investments. Due to the paucity of available data, however, calculating and monitoring transit accessibility is a difficult task. Anchored in SDG 11 for more ‘Sustainable Cities and Communities’, the UN has thus proposed a simplified, globally applicable indicator for the performance of cities’ transit systems (SDG 11.2.1) that measures the share of the population living in a walking distance of 500 m to the transit system. Building on this definition and leveraging open data sources, we analyze potential transit accessibility gains under Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) in Metro Manila, Philippines. We show that the integration of paratransit (i.e., jeepneys) into the transit network could almost triple access to transit from 23.9 % to 65.0 %. The integration of micro-mobility (i.e., e-scooter and bicycles) as a feeder mode could further increase this share significantly (to 97.9 % and 99.9 %, respectively). We outline and discuss evidence-based policy recommendations to exploit this potential and foster a sustainable development under MaaS. Finally, we conclude with a research agenda for micro-mobility and MaaS in developing countries, a topic which has been widely overlooked in the scientific literature so far.

公交可达性,即人们获得公交服务的条件和距离,是评估城市公交系统性能的关键指标之一。越多的人可以使用交通系统,其在社会公平方面的表现就越好(例如,获得工作、教育和其他机会的机会就越平等)。为了向决策者提供信息并支持决策,衡量交通投资的潜在交通可达性变化至关重要。然而,由于缺乏可用数据,计算和监测公交可达性是一项艰巨的任务。因此,联合国以可持续发展目标11为基础,提出了一个简化的、全球适用的城市交通系统绩效指标(可持续发展目标11.2.1),用于衡量距离交通系统500米步行距离内的人口比例。基于这一定义并利用开放的数据源,我们分析了菲律宾马尼拉大都会移动即服务(MaaS)下的潜在交通可达性收益。我们表明,将副公交(即吉普尼)纳入公交网络几乎可以将公交接入率从23.9%提高到65.0%。将微型移动(即电动踏板车和自行车)作为一种供给模式的整合可以进一步大幅提高这一份额(分别达到97.9%和99.9%)。我们概述并讨论了基于证据的政策建议,以利用这一潜力,并在MaaS下促进可持续发展。最后,我们总结了发展中国家微观流动性和MaaS的研究议程,这一主题迄今为止在科学文献中被广泛忽视。
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引用次数: 5
The on-demand bus routing problem with real-time traffic information 具有实时交通信息的按需公交路由问题
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2023.100093
Ying Lian , Flavien Lucas , Kenneth Sörensen

We propose to solve a real-time traffic variation of the On-Demand Bus Routing Problem (ODBRP) introduced by Melis and Sörensen (2022). The ODBRP belongs to the category of the Dial-A-Ride Problems (DARP), and features departure and arrival bus station selection. This problem is specifically aimed at planning a fleet of on-demand buses in an urban environment. However, cities are frequently plagued by traffic congestion, which may cause delays and missed time windows for passengers.

To deal with this situation, we introduce, study, and solve a variant of the ODBRP in which the travel times are both time-dependent (i.e., the travel time between two nodes depends on the departure time) and updated dynamically.

In our approach, congested roads that might cause passenger delays are modeled by frequently updating the travel speed on the road segments that constitute them. The resulting problem is solved by using a K-shortest-path procedure to determine alternative paths between bus stations, as well as a Variable Neighborhood Descent (VND) procedure to repair violated time windows.

Our experimental results show the overall efficacy of this real-time control under divergent degrees of flexibility (congestion and the number of buses available). Specifically, the average tardiness, maximum tardiness, and the number of late passengers are significantly reduced under a wide range of congestion scenarios, from slight to severe. In addition, this efficacy holds for various ratios of requests to the number of vehicles.

我们建议解决Melis和Sörensen(2022)提出的按需公交路由问题(ODBRP)的实时交通变化。ODBRP属于拨号侧问题(DARP)的一类,其特点是选择出发和到达的公交车站。这个问题专门针对在城市环境中规划按需公交车车队。然而,城市经常受到交通拥堵的困扰,这可能会导致乘客延误和错过时间窗口。为了应对这种情况,我们引入、研究并解决了ODBRP的一个变体,其中旅行时间既与时间相关(即两个节点之间的旅行时间取决于出发时间),又动态更新。在我们的方法中,可能导致乘客延误的拥堵道路是通过频繁更新构成它们的路段的行驶速度来建模的。由此产生的问题通过使用K-shortest-path程序来确定公交车站之间的替代路径,以及使用可变邻域下降(VND)程序来修复违反的时间窗口来解决。我们的实验结果表明,在不同程度的灵活性(拥堵和可用公交车数量)下,这种实时控制的总体效果。具体而言,在从轻微到严重的各种拥堵情况下,平均延误、最大延误和迟到乘客数量都会显著减少。此外,这种功效适用于各种请求与车辆数量的比率。
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引用次数: 3
Sustainable and convenient: Bi-modal public transit systems outperforming the private car 可持续和便捷:双模式公共交通系统优于私家车
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2023.100083
Puneet Sharma , Knut M. Heidemann , Helge Heuer , Steffen Mühle , Stephan Herminghaus

Mobility is an indispensable part of modern human societies, but the dominance of motorized individual traffic (MIV, i.e., the private car) leads to a prohibitive waste of energy as well as other resources. Public transportation with line services, such as light rail, can pool many more passengers, thereby saving resources, but often is less convenient (longer transit times). Door-to-door shuttle services, on the other hand, are convenient but have a limited pooling efficiency due to detours scaling with shuttle occupancy. Combining line services with a fleet of shared shuttles in an integrated so-called bi-modal system may provide on-demand door-to-door service at a service level superior to current public transport with significantly less resource consumption than MIV. Here we introduce a generic model of bi-modal public transit and characterize its critical parameters of operation. We identify the conflicting objectives for optimization, i.e., user convenience and energy consumption, and evaluate the system’s performance in terms of Pareto fronts. By means of simulation and analytical theory, we find that energy consumption can be as low as 20% of MIV, at line service densities typically found in real settings. Road traffic can be reduced to less than 10% of MIV. Surprisingly, we find favorable performance not only in urban, but also in rural settings. We thereby provide a possible answer to the pressing question of designing sustainable future mobility solutions.

流动性是现代人类社会不可或缺的一部分,但机动化个人交通(MIV,即私家车)的主导地位导致了能源和其他资源的过度浪费。有线路服务的公共交通,如轻轨,可以汇集更多的乘客,从而节省资源,但通常不太方便(公交时间更长)。另一方面,门到门的班车服务很方便,但由于班车占用率的增加,拼车效率有限。在一个集成的所谓双模系统中,将线路服务与共享班车车队相结合,可以以比MIV显著更低的资源消耗,以优于当前公共交通的服务水平提供按需门到门服务。在这里,我们介绍了一个通用的双模式公共交通模型,并描述了其运行的关键参数。我们确定了相互冲突的优化目标,即用户便利性和能源消耗,并根据Pareto前沿来评估系统的性能。通过模拟和分析理论,我们发现在实际环境中通常存在的线路服务密度下,能耗可以低至MIV的20%。道路交通量可以减少到MIV的10%以下。令人惊讶的是,我们发现不仅在城市,而且在农村环境中都有良好的表现。因此,我们为设计可持续的未来移动解决方案这一紧迫问题提供了一个可能的答案。
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引用次数: 1
The evolutionary game of enterprise and driver fatigue regulation in the intelligent networked environment-A case study in Jiaozuo city, China 智能网络环境下企业与驾驶员疲劳调节的进化博弈——以焦作市为例
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2023.100081
Li Xianghong , Zheng Lanlan , Chen Jun , Niu Jiageng , Fang Xufei

To give full play to the role of fatigue supervision of intelligent monitoring platforms, We consider the shortage of the traditional management model of enterprises. The management game model of enterprises and drivers is built from the benefits of drivers. Taking 79 drivers of enterprise A in Jiaozuo City as an example, the number of fatigue violations of each driver in each of the six consecutive months was counted. Combined with the system clustering method, the drivers are classified according to the trend of the number of violations. Finally, different regulatory measures were proposed for different categories of drivers according to the evolution of the regulatory game system. The model evolution simulation results show that when the cost paid by the driver for violating the law (c) is greater than the additional benefit generated by the violation (d), the driver will choose not to drive fatigued to protect his benefits. The classification results show that drivers can be divided into four categories:① class no fatigue violation records; ② class fatigue violation records show a downward trend; ③ class fatigue violation records show wavy changes, indicating repeated violations; ④ class fatigue violation records show an upward trend. The number of violations varies for different categories of drivers. The d increases as the number of violations increases. Therefore, different management measures are proposed to increase c for the 4-type drivers so that the parameters of each type of driver satisfy the range of values of c>d. Thus, the driver evolves in the direction of no-fatigue driving. It can effectively regulate fatigue driving and improve driving safety.

为了充分发挥智能监控平台的疲劳监管作用,我们考虑了传统企业管理模式的不足。企业和驾驶员的管理博弈模型是从驾驶员的利益出发构建的。以焦作市A企业79名驾驶员为例,统计了每名驾驶员连续6个月的疲劳违章次数。结合系统聚类方法,根据违章次数的趋势对驾驶员进行分类。最后,根据监管博弈体系的演变,对不同类别的驾驶员提出了不同的监管措施。模型演化模拟结果表明,当驾驶员因违法(c)而支付的成本大于违法(d)所产生的额外利益时,驾驶员将选择不疲劳驾驶以保护其利益。分类结果表明,驾驶员可分为四类:①无疲劳违章记录;②课堂疲劳违规记录呈下降趋势;③课堂疲劳违规记录呈波浪状变化,表明违规行为反复发生;④课堂疲劳违规记录呈上升趋势。不同类别的驾驶员的违规次数各不相同。d随着违规次数的增加而增加。因此,提出了不同的管理措施来增加4型驱动器的c,使得每种类型的驱动器的参数满足c>;d.因此,驾驶员朝着无疲劳驾驶的方向发展。能有效调节疲劳驾驶,提高驾驶安全性。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating machine learning for simulating urban transport patterns: A comparison with traditional macro-models 研究用于模拟城市交通模式的机器学习:与传统宏观模型的比较
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2023.100085
Omkar Parishwad , Sida Jiang , Kun Gao

Predicting passenger flow within a city is crucial for intelligent transportation management systems, especially in the context of urban development, post-pandemic policy changes, and infrastructure improvements. Traditional macro models have limitations in accurately capturing the complex structure of real traffic flows, and recent advancements in machine learning offer promising approaches for improving transportation simulations. This research aims to compare the effectiveness of traditional simulation models with a selective machine learning (ML) model for traffic flow prediction in Oslo, Norway. Sensitivity and scenario analyses are conducted to examine the models’ parameters and derive the city’s characteristics. Results substantiate that the traditional Spatial Interaction model (SIM), although interpretable and requiring fewer parameters, has limitations in accurately capturing real flow structures and exhibits greater variability compared to the ML model. Statistical analyses support these findings and raise questions about the validity of the ML model’s results over the SIM. The research highlights the potential of ML models to identify trends in passenger flows and simulate traffic flows in different scenarios related to city development. Overall, the research presents a decision support system for planners and policymakers to predict traffic flow accurately and efficiently. It highlights the benefits and drawbacks of both the traditional SIM and ML models, contributing to the ongoing discussion of the role of machine learning in transportation modeling.

预测城市内的客流对于智能交通管理系统至关重要,尤其是在城市发展、疫情后政策变化和基础设施改善的背景下。传统的宏观模型在准确捕捉真实交通流的复杂结构方面存在局限性,而机器学习的最新进展为改进交通模拟提供了很有前途的方法。本研究旨在比较传统模拟模型与选择性机器学习(ML)模型在挪威奥斯陆交通流量预测中的有效性。进行了敏感性和情景分析,以检查模型的参数并得出城市的特征。结果证实,传统的空间相互作用模型(SIM)虽然可解释且需要较少的参数,但在准确捕捉真实流动结构方面存在局限性,并且与ML模型相比表现出更大的可变性。统计分析支持了这些发现,并对ML模型的结果在SIM上的有效性提出了质疑。该研究强调了ML模型在识别客流趋势和模拟与城市发展相关的不同场景中的交通流方面的潜力。总体而言,该研究为规划者和决策者提供了一个准确有效地预测交通流量的决策支持系统。它强调了传统SIM和ML模型的优点和缺点,有助于对机器学习在交通建模中的作用进行持续的讨论。
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引用次数: 2
Switching intention, WOM and quality of public transport services: A case of the Kuala Lumpur conurbation 转换意愿、口碑与公共交通服务质量——以吉隆坡城市群为例
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.multra.2023.100082
Muhammad Iskandar Hamzah , Siti Norida Wahab , Muhammad Hafiz Abd Rashid , Boo Ho Voon

Despite spending billions of dollars on urban transport infrastructure, Malaysia has a poor reputation for its public transit service. Consequently, the majority of urban residents continue to rely on their cars. Hence, this paper aims to understand commuters’ intention to switch from private vehicles to public transit and spread word-of-mouth (WOM) about its services and assess the roles of satisfaction and service quality as antecedents. A cross-sectional survey of 421 rail and bus passengers was undertaken in Kuala Lumpur's urban and sub-urban areas, and the data was analyzed using SmartPLS. According to the data, empathy is the strongest predictor of satisfaction with transit services. Except for reliability, the service quality characteristics influence satisfaction and yield positive indirect effects on both switching intention and WOM. Transit operators and planners should take into account that providing a pleasant and hassle-free riding experience has a substantial impact on commuter satisfaction and long-term commitment. This study contributed to the body of knowledge by exploring the intervention role of satisfaction in the relationship between service quality and switching intention, as well as WOM.

尽管马来西亚在城市交通基础设施上花费了数十亿美元,但其公共交通服务名声不佳。因此,大多数城市居民继续依赖他们的汽车。因此,本文旨在了解通勤者从私家车转向公共交通的意图,传播其服务的口碑,并评估满意度和服务质量作为前因的作用。在吉隆坡的城市和次城市地区对421名铁路和公共汽车乘客进行了横断面调查,并使用SmartPLS对数据进行了分析。数据显示,同理心是对公交服务满意度的最强预测因素。除可靠性外,服务质量特征影响满意度,并对转换意向和口碑产生正向间接影响。公交运营商和规划者应考虑到,提供愉快、无忧的乘车体验会对通勤者的满意度和长期承诺产生重大影响。本研究通过探索满意度在服务质量和转换意向以及口碑之间关系中的干预作用,为知识体系做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Multimodal Transportation
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