Temptation and self-control evolved as single mechanism to make humans behave against their own self-interest. I analyze the evolution of self-control in a principal-agent framework, in which the agent has access to private information but his utility cannot depend on all rel-evant variables. The principal can obtain the first best asymptotically by biasing the utility of the agent (from which an endogenous conflict emerges) and simultaneously endowing the agent with a limited amount of self-control.Several empirical properties of self-control, observed in psychological experiments, are explained in terms of the model: 1) self-control grows over time as it is exercised; 2) self-control is lower when the level of glucose in the blood is low, but does not depend on a physical resource; 3) as the environment becomes more tempting, individuals exhibit less self-control. The model sheds light on the di?erence between self-control and hyperbolic discounting and provides a framework for understanding the recent surge of chronic non-communicable diseases, suggesting that the current environment could be welfare-reducing.
{"title":"The Evolution of Self-Control in the Brain","authors":"David Jimenez-Gomez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3146985","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3146985","url":null,"abstract":"Temptation and self-control evolved as single mechanism to make humans behave against their own self-interest. I analyze the evolution of self-control in a principal-agent framework, in which the agent has access to private information but his utility cannot depend on all rel-evant variables. The principal can obtain the first best asymptotically by biasing the utility of the agent (from which an endogenous conflict emerges) and simultaneously endowing the agent with a limited amount of self-control.Several empirical properties of self-control, observed in psychological experiments, are explained in terms of the model: 1) self-control grows over time as it is exercised; 2) self-control is lower when the level of glucose in the blood is low, but does not depend on a physical resource; 3) as the environment becomes more tempting, individuals exhibit less self-control. The model sheds light on the di?erence between self-control and hyperbolic discounting and provides a framework for understanding the recent surge of chronic non-communicable diseases, suggesting that the current environment could be welfare-reducing.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79403676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study was conducted to find out whether birth order is a factor in academic performance. Adler’s (1930) assertions on the personality differences based on different birth order were used as this study’s theoretical basis. The respondents of the study were taken from the Grade 10 high school students of Nuestra Senora de Aranzazu Parochial School located in San Mateo, Rizal, Philippines. Using purposive sampling 77 “first born,” 55 “middle child,” 71 “last born” and 30 “only child” respondents were obtained. The respondents’ academic performances through their general weighted average in 2017 were also taken. The chi-square formula yielded a value of 8.696 which is higher than the critical value of 7.81. Therefore, it could be inferred that there is a significant relationship between birth order and academic performance. Welch T tests were computed between the academic performances of the different birth orders. This statistical tool yielded a t value of 1.8145 between first born and only child, a t value of 1.6988 between middle child and only child, a t value of 1.6054 between last born and only child, a t value of -1.8145 between only child and first born, a t value of -1.6988 between only child and middle child and a t value of -1.6504 between only child and last born. The preceding Welch t values all indicate a significant difference in the academic performance of the respective respondents.
这项研究是为了找出出生顺序是否对学习成绩有影响。Adler(1930)关于不同出生顺序的人格差异的论断作为本研究的理论基础。本研究的调查对象为菲律宾黎萨市圣马特奥市Nuestra Senora de Aranzazu教区学校的10年级学生。采用有目的抽样的方法，获得了77名“头胎”、55名“中间孩子”、71名“最后一个孩子”和30名“独生子女”的调查对象。并通过综合加权平均计算了被调查者2017年的学业成绩。卡方公式得出的值为8.696，高于临界值7.81。因此，我们可以推断，出生顺序与学习成绩之间存在显著的关系。对不同出生顺序的学习成绩进行Welch T检验。这个统计工具得出头胎和独生子女之间的t值为1.8145，中间孩子和独生子女之间的t值为1.6988，最后一个孩子和独生子女之间的t值为1.6054，独生子女和第一个孩子之间的t值为-1.8145，独生子女和中间孩子之间的t值为-1.6988，独生子女和最后一个孩子之间的t值为-1.6504。前面的韦尔奇值都表明了各自被调查者学业成绩的显著差异。
{"title":"Relationship between the Academic Performance and Birth Order of Grade 10 Students from Nuestra Señora De Aranzazu Parochial School, Academic Year 2017-2018","authors":"Maria Carmella Sucgang, F. Fabella","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3176933","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3176933","url":null,"abstract":"This study was conducted to find out whether birth order is a factor in academic performance. Adler’s (1930) assertions on the personality differences based on different birth order were used as this study’s theoretical basis. The respondents of the study were taken from the Grade 10 high school students of Nuestra Senora de Aranzazu Parochial School located in San Mateo, Rizal, Philippines. Using purposive sampling 77 “first born,” 55 “middle child,” 71 “last born” and 30 “only child” respondents were obtained. The respondents’ academic performances through their general weighted average in 2017 were also taken. The chi-square formula yielded a value of 8.696 which is higher than the critical value of 7.81. Therefore, it could be inferred that there is a significant relationship between birth order and academic performance. Welch T tests were computed between the academic performances of the different birth orders. This statistical tool yielded a t value of 1.8145 between first born and only child, a t value of 1.6988 between middle child and only child, a t value of 1.6054 between last born and only child, a t value of -1.8145 between only child and first born, a t value of -1.6988 between only child and middle child and a t value of -1.6504 between only child and last born. The preceding Welch t values all indicate a significant difference in the academic performance of the respective respondents.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90203663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate how presentation modality (text vs. video) and executive gender influence evaluators’ perceptions of management competence and the future performance potential of that executive’s company. Consistent with recent labor market research (Shroeder and Epley 2015), seeing and hearing (rather than reading) identical information from a CEO improves the competence assessment of the CEO; however, this result is largely gender dependent. Male-delivered financial reports enhance participant views of CEO competence while female-delivered reports do not. In addition, male-led firms have expectations of enhanced future company performance that are only partially mediated by views of CEO competence. While we find modest evidence that the female competence disadvantage is associated with industry (because female CEO competence is marginally improved in a ‘feminine’ industry), we find no evidence that a female-led company enjoys enhanced expectations of future company performance.
{"title":"Watching the Glass Ceiling: An Investigation of Financial Presentation Modality and Gender Bias","authors":"Cristina Bailey, Steve Buchheit, Kevin H. Kim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2898975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2898975","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate how presentation modality (text vs. video) and executive gender influence evaluators’ perceptions of management competence and the future performance potential of that executive’s company. Consistent with recent labor market research (Shroeder and Epley 2015), seeing and hearing (rather than reading) identical information from a CEO improves the competence assessment of the CEO; however, this result is largely gender dependent. Male-delivered financial reports enhance participant views of CEO competence while female-delivered reports do not. In addition, male-led firms have expectations of enhanced future company performance that are only partially mediated by views of CEO competence. While we find modest evidence that the female competence disadvantage is associated with industry (because female CEO competence is marginally improved in a ‘feminine’ industry), we find no evidence that a female-led company enjoys enhanced expectations of future company performance.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81121765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Barbara Ikica, Simon Jantschgi, H. H. Nax, Diego Nunez Duran, Bary S. R. Pradelski
We conducted a large number of controlled continuous double auction experiments to reproduce and stress-test the phenomenon of convergence to competitive equilibrium under private information. A common finding across a total of 104 markets (involving 1k+ individual subjects and trading rounds) is convergence after a handful of trading periods. Initially, however, there is evidence for an inherent asymmetry that favors buyers, which is expressed in symmetric markets by deal prices that are significantly below equilibrium prices. Analysis of the 80k+ observations of individual bids and asks helps identify several empirical ingredients contributing to the observed phenomena including higher initial aggressiveness amongst buyers than sellers.
{"title":"Competitive Market Behavior: Convergence and Asymmetry in the Experimental Double Auction","authors":"Barbara Ikica, Simon Jantschgi, H. H. Nax, Diego Nunez Duran, Bary S. R. Pradelski","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3131004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3131004","url":null,"abstract":"We conducted a large number of controlled continuous double auction experiments to reproduce and stress-test the phenomenon of convergence to competitive equilibrium under private information. A common finding across a total of 104 markets (involving 1k+ individual subjects and trading rounds) is convergence after a handful of trading periods. Initially, however, there is evidence for an inherent asymmetry that favors buyers, which is expressed in symmetric markets by deal prices that are significantly below equilibrium prices. Analysis of the 80k+ observations of individual bids and asks helps identify several empirical ingredients contributing to the observed phenomena including higher initial aggressiveness amongst buyers than sellers.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"95 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74497386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I study the process of bargaining over a pie of fixed size. Motivated by the argument that the manner in which bargaining unfolds often depends on antecedents, I embed the bargaining process in an evolutionary framework. First, I posit that there exist two separate populations, and in each period, one individual is randomly drawn from each population to bargain. The bargaining protocol used is the Nash demand game, and the demand that each individual makes is guided by the demands made by the other population in the recent past. I show that under very general conditions, the bargaining process reaches a convention, where each population settles on demanding a fixed share of the pie, and the demands of each population are both compatible with each other, and cumulatively exhaust the pie. Next, I identify the most advantageous behavioural trait in the long-run: in the convention that is stable in the long-run, a population of 'wildly optimistic' individuals obtains almost the entire pie against a population comprised of 'almost any other' behavioural type. Secondly, since this two-population bargaining game does not allow for evolutionary selection, I analyse the stability of a behavioural trait in a playing-the-field model of bargaining by examining the relative performance of an incumbent population described by a particular behavioural trait against a mutant of another behavioural trait. I show that all behavioural traits are unstable as they are susceptible to invasion by any mutant trait. However, the only state where any behavioural trait can co-exist with any other mutant trait is when the pie is shared equally. This demonstrates the importance of the equal-splitting norm for co-existence of various behavioural traits, and hence, for sustainable population diversity.
{"title":"Bargaining by Heterogeneously Responsive Populations","authors":"Abhimanyu Khan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3129214","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3129214","url":null,"abstract":"I study the process of bargaining over a pie of fixed size. Motivated by the argument that the manner in which bargaining unfolds often depends on antecedents, I embed the bargaining process in an evolutionary framework. First, I posit that there exist two separate populations, and in each period, one individual is randomly drawn from each population to bargain. The bargaining protocol used is the Nash demand game, and the demand that each individual makes is guided by the demands made by the other population in the recent past. I show that under very general conditions, the bargaining process reaches a convention, where each population settles on demanding a fixed share of the pie, and the demands of each population are both compatible with each other, and cumulatively exhaust the pie. Next, I identify the most advantageous behavioural trait in the long-run: in the convention that is stable in the long-run, a population of 'wildly optimistic' individuals obtains almost the entire pie against a population comprised of 'almost any other' behavioural type. Secondly, since this two-population bargaining game does not allow for evolutionary selection, I analyse the stability of a behavioural trait in a playing-the-field model of bargaining by examining the relative performance of an incumbent population described by a particular behavioural trait against a mutant of another behavioural trait. I show that all behavioural traits are unstable as they are susceptible to invasion by any mutant trait. However, the only state where any behavioural trait can co-exist with any other mutant trait is when the pie is shared equally. This demonstrates the importance of the equal-splitting norm for co-existence of various behavioural traits, and hence, for sustainable population diversity.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"212 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77486018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-02-21DOI: 10.16980/jitc.14.1.201802.103
Won-Wook Choi, Ilhang Shin, M. Choi
Although post-merger integration (PMI) in management control systems (MCSs) is a key determinant of successful corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&As), it has not attracted due academic attention because the existing case studies on PMI is are highly concentrated on integration in terms of human resources and corporate cultures. In this study, we analyze the issues, solutions, and implementation of PMI tasks in MCSs at each phase of a cross-border merger from the perspective of the organization, and employees, policies and procedures, reporting, communication and monitoring, and information technology. Our case study has several implications for PMI in MCSs. First, expedited completion of PMI in MCSs is necessary because it is equivalent to structuring the a monitoring system of for overall management and PMI task processes at the acquired firm. Second, setting the extent of managerial discretion at the acquired firm is a prerequisite for the effective installation of MCSs. Lastly, in order to minimize merger risks, a PMI-dedicated business division must be designated in the an early phase and executed with due diligence.
{"title":"Post-Merger Integration in Management Control Systems: A Case Study in the Global Construction Industry","authors":"Won-Wook Choi, Ilhang Shin, M. Choi","doi":"10.16980/jitc.14.1.201802.103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.16980/jitc.14.1.201802.103","url":null,"abstract":"Although post-merger integration (PMI) in management control systems (MCSs) is a key determinant of successful corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&As), it has not attracted due academic attention because the existing case studies on PMI is are highly concentrated on integration in terms of human resources and corporate cultures. In this study, we analyze the issues, solutions, and implementation of PMI tasks in MCSs at each phase of a cross-border merger from the perspective of the organization, and employees, policies and procedures, reporting, communication and monitoring, and information technology. Our case study has several implications for PMI in MCSs. First, expedited completion of PMI in MCSs is necessary because it is equivalent to structuring the a monitoring system of for overall management and PMI task processes at the acquired firm. Second, setting the extent of managerial discretion at the acquired firm is a prerequisite for the effective installation of MCSs. Lastly, in order to minimize merger risks, a PMI-dedicated business division must be designated in the an early phase and executed with due diligence.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85843095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Objective: The aim of the present manuscript is to address Tocqueville's hypothesis that voluntary associations and volunteering are breeding grounds for democratic virtues and skills and thus enhance political participation. Methods: Data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) data set spanning the years 1991-2008 are analyzed using multivariate panel data regression techniques to assess the effect of voluntary association membership/activities on political participation in the UK. Results: It is found that organizational activity (more than mere membership) positively impacts on political participation but these effects are smaller than usually found and depend on types of associations and degree of activity. Sensitivity analyses support the finding the political interest more strongly predicts political party support than associational activities. Further support for causal interpretations is scant. Conclusion: Some evidence for Tocqueville's hypothesis can be found for the UK during the sample horizon but the effect is sensitive to model specification and issues of reverse causation remain.
{"title":"Enhancing Democracy: Can Civic Engagement Foster Political Participation?","authors":"Martin Binder","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2967479","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2967479","url":null,"abstract":"Objective: The aim of the present manuscript is to address Tocqueville's hypothesis that voluntary associations and volunteering are breeding grounds for democratic virtues and skills and thus enhance political participation. Methods: Data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) data set spanning the years 1991-2008 are analyzed using multivariate panel data regression techniques to assess the effect of voluntary association membership/activities on political participation in the UK. Results: It is found that organizational activity (more than mere membership) positively impacts on political participation but these effects are smaller than usually found and depend on types of associations and degree of activity. Sensitivity analyses support the finding the political interest more strongly predicts political party support than associational activities. Further support for causal interpretations is scant. Conclusion: Some evidence for Tocqueville's hypothesis can be found for the UK during the sample horizon but the effect is sensitive to model specification and issues of reverse causation remain.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75226648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Context influences decision making. However, evidence on the specific underlying mechanism is scarce. Since context dependence in decision making may impact consumers, firms and political agenda setters, exploring the precise mechanism through which choices are distorted is imperative. This paper provides evidence that expanding the utility range of one choice dimension leads decision makers to attach less weight to this attribute, in line with the notion of relative thinking. Context dependence is more pronounced if evaluators are female and survives extensive robustness checks. Implications for policy are discussed.
{"title":"Context Dependence in Speed Dating: An Empirical Test of Relative Thinking","authors":"Florentin Krämer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3125505","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3125505","url":null,"abstract":"Context influences decision making. However, evidence on the specific underlying mechanism is scarce. Since context dependence in decision making may impact consumers, firms and political agenda setters, exploring the precise mechanism through which choices are distorted is imperative. This paper provides evidence that expanding the utility range of one choice dimension leads decision makers to attach less weight to this attribute, in line with the notion of relative thinking. Context dependence is more pronounced if evaluators are female and survives extensive robustness checks. Implications for policy are discussed.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87018438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christopher Prosser, E. Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Jonathan Mellon, Geoffrey Evans
Abstract In the aftermath of the 2017 UK General Election, some claimed that Labour performed unexpectedly well because of a surge in youth turnout. Polling estimates for the size of this ‘youthquake’ ranged from 12 to 21 points amongst 18–24 year olds. Using conventional and Bayesian statistical methods, we analyse British Election Study and British Social Attitudes random probability surveys and find no evidence of a shift in the relationship between age and turnout of this scale. Using the pooled BES and BSA reported turnout data with an informative prior that there was a modest increase in 18–24 turnout (N{6, 3}), our 95% credible interval for that change is between 0.9 and 8.8 points. Even with a strong youthquake prior (N{15.5, 3.5}), our data suggest that there is only a 4% probability that the change in turnout amongst 18–24 years olds was 12 points or higher.
{"title":"Tremors But No Youthquake: Measuring Changes in the Age and Turnout Gradients at the 2015 and 2017 British General Elections","authors":"Christopher Prosser, E. Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Jonathan Mellon, Geoffrey Evans","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3111839","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3111839","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the aftermath of the 2017 UK General Election, some claimed that Labour performed unexpectedly well because of a surge in youth turnout. Polling estimates for the size of this ‘youthquake’ ranged from 12 to 21 points amongst 18–24 year olds. Using conventional and Bayesian statistical methods, we analyse British Election Study and British Social Attitudes random probability surveys and find no evidence of a shift in the relationship between age and turnout of this scale. Using the pooled BES and BSA reported turnout data with an informative prior that there was a modest increase in 18–24 turnout (N{6, 3}), our 95% credible interval for that change is between 0.9 and 8.8 points. Even with a strong youthquake prior (N{15.5, 3.5}), our data suggest that there is only a 4% probability that the change in turnout amongst 18–24 years olds was 12 points or higher.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"73 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81574338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ellsberg's famous thought experiments demonstrate that most people prefer less ambiguous alternatives to more ambiguous ones. This apparently violates Savage's Sure-thing Principle. I provide a solution to Ellsberg's paradox. More precisely, I demonstrate that ambiguity aversion can be readily explained by subjectivistic decision theory. The given solution is simple and fits perfectly into Savage's subjectivistic framework. Since ambiguity aversion translates into the subjective probabilities of the decision-maker, they could even be used in order to quantify his ambiguity aversion.
{"title":"A Solution to Ellsberg's Paradox","authors":"Gabriel Frahm","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3106008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3106008","url":null,"abstract":"Ellsberg's famous thought experiments demonstrate that most people prefer less ambiguous alternatives to more ambiguous ones. This apparently violates Savage's Sure-thing Principle. I provide a solution to Ellsberg's paradox. More precisely, I demonstrate that ambiguity aversion can be readily explained by subjectivistic decision theory. The given solution is simple and fits perfectly into Savage's subjectivistic framework. Since ambiguity aversion translates into the subjective probabilities of the decision-maker, they could even be used in order to quantify his ambiguity aversion.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"64 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78207929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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