Pub Date : 2018-01-20DOI: 10.5465/AMBPP.2017.14505ABSTRACT
R. Fini, J. Jourdan, M. Perkmann
How do evaluators judge candidates positively evaluated by an external, non-peer audience? This question is critical to individuals and organizations reaching out to various audiences for key resou...
{"title":"Social Valuation Across Multiple Audiences: The Interplay of Ability and Identity Judgements","authors":"R. Fini, J. Jourdan, M. Perkmann","doi":"10.5465/AMBPP.2017.14505ABSTRACT","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5465/AMBPP.2017.14505ABSTRACT","url":null,"abstract":"How do evaluators judge candidates positively evaluated by an external, non-peer audience? This question is critical to individuals and organizations reaching out to various audiences for key resou...","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"203 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74751401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-01-01DOI: 10.18536/BCCE.2018.10.8.1.05
Samuel Ogbeibu, Abdelhak Senadjki, Luen Peng Tan
This study examined the dark side of trustworthiness perceptions and how it affects the diffusion of creative ideas. In this age of constant change and high levels of global financial uncertainties, the resolve to trust, be perceived as trustworthy and share creative ideas is greatly needed. However, a high trustworthiness perception of managers could expose employees to betrayal and deception. Therefore, a snowball non-probability sampling technique was employed to identify 30 participants who engaged in in-depth interviews. The results showed that manager’s ability to facilitate the diffusion of creative ideas is dependent upon the manager’s supportive nature and capabilities, ability to apply creative efforts, innovative evidence, and reputation, fear mitigation, and employee empowerment, listening and open communication. The results showed that false perceptions of old practices and fixation on a multiplicity of creative ideas have negative effects on the diffusion of creative ideas. The fulfillment of promises, openness to change and flexible control has significant impacts on integrity. This study, therefore, contributes to the widely discussed Integrative Model of Organizational Trust by extending the trustworthiness theoretical underpinning. This study further highlights a framework that organizations and policy makers ought to consider in order to facilitate the diffusion of creative ideas.
{"title":"The Dark Side of Trustworthiness Perception and Its Effects on the Diffusion of Creative Ideas Within Organizations","authors":"Samuel Ogbeibu, Abdelhak Senadjki, Luen Peng Tan","doi":"10.18536/BCCE.2018.10.8.1.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18536/BCCE.2018.10.8.1.05","url":null,"abstract":"This study examined the dark side of trustworthiness perceptions and how it affects the diffusion of creative ideas. In this age of constant change and high levels of global financial uncertainties, the resolve to trust, be perceived as trustworthy and share creative ideas is greatly needed. However, a high trustworthiness perception of managers could expose employees to betrayal and deception. Therefore, a snowball non-probability sampling technique was employed to identify 30 participants who engaged in in-depth interviews. The results showed that manager’s ability to facilitate the diffusion of creative ideas is dependent upon the manager’s supportive nature and capabilities, ability to apply creative efforts, innovative evidence, and reputation, fear mitigation, and employee empowerment, listening and open communication. The results showed that false perceptions of old practices and fixation on a multiplicity of creative ideas have negative effects on the diffusion of creative ideas. The fulfillment of promises, openness to change and flexible control has significant impacts on integrity. This study, therefore, contributes to the widely discussed Integrative Model of Organizational Trust by extending the trustworthiness theoretical underpinning. This study further highlights a framework that organizations and policy makers ought to consider in order to facilitate the diffusion of creative ideas.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74145678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Individuals frequently exploit “flexibility” built into decision environments to give less. They use uncertainty to justify options benefiting themselves over others, they avoid information that may encourage them to give, and they avoid the ask itself. In this paper, we examine whether a reluctance to give may arise even when such explicit flexibility is absent. We investigate whether merely alerting individuals to an upcoming prosocial ask — that is neither avoided nor occurs in an environment with flexibility — results in reduced prosocial behavior. That is, we investigate whether individuals use time to quickly find ways to decline prosocial asks and thus whether surprising individuals with prosocial asks increases compliance. Results from a field study and complementary online studies provide a clear answer: yes.
{"title":"The Impact of a Surprise Donation Ask","authors":"C. Exley, Ragan Petrie","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2743207","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2743207","url":null,"abstract":"Individuals frequently exploit “flexibility” built into decision environments to give less. They use uncertainty to justify options benefiting themselves over others, they avoid information that may encourage them to give, and they avoid the ask itself. In this paper, we examine whether a reluctance to give may arise even when such explicit flexibility is absent. We investigate whether merely alerting individuals to an upcoming prosocial ask — that is neither avoided nor occurs in an environment with flexibility — results in reduced prosocial behavior. That is, we investigate whether individuals use time to quickly find ways to decline prosocial asks and thus whether surprising individuals with prosocial asks increases compliance. Results from a field study and complementary online studies provide a clear answer: yes.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85153185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate internet-only banks' (IOBs) adoption by Malaysia consumers and attempt to understand the factors that influence consumers' initial trust in this type of service. Design/methodology/approach – A non-probability convenience sample of potential IOBs adopters from Malaysia was used to test a structural equation model that analysed the antecedents of initial trust and usage intentions of IOBs. Findings – This study shows the applicability of the initial trust-building model in the context of IOBs and underlines the importance of factors such as familiarity, reputation and perceived quality in the context of online banking services in Malaysia. Practical Implications – This paper provides e-banking companies with the most important factors that contribute to build the initial trust of customers. E-banks need to focus on making themselves known and promoting their brand more effectively through advertising and advocacy. Originality/value – This study contributes significantly to the marketing research related to consumer trust and brand reputation, as well as to the electronic banking literature. The results show the importance of initial trust in the context of services and the main factors that influence it, including a key branding variable such as reputation. The paper also focuses on the IOBs' adoption in Malaysia, a market understudied compared to the USA, and seeks to understand the mechanisms associated with the initial formation of Malaysia consumers' trust toward it.
{"title":"A Study on the Determinants that Influence on Consumer Initial Trust Toward Internet-Only Banks in Malaysia","authors":"Aishah Munirah Azoha","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3084446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3084446","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate internet-only banks' (IOBs) adoption by Malaysia consumers and attempt to understand the factors that influence consumers' initial trust in this type of service. Design/methodology/approach – A non-probability convenience sample of potential IOBs adopters from Malaysia was used to test a structural equation model that analysed the antecedents of initial trust and usage intentions of IOBs. Findings – This study shows the applicability of the initial trust-building model in the context of IOBs and underlines the importance of factors such as familiarity, reputation and perceived quality in the context of online banking services in Malaysia. Practical Implications – This paper provides e-banking companies with the most important factors that contribute to build the initial trust of customers. E-banks need to focus on making themselves known and promoting their brand more effectively through advertising and advocacy. Originality/value – This study contributes significantly to the marketing research related to consumer trust and brand reputation, as well as to the electronic banking literature. The results show the importance of initial trust in the context of services and the main factors that influence it, including a key branding variable such as reputation. The paper also focuses on the IOBs' adoption in Malaysia, a market understudied compared to the USA, and seeks to understand the mechanisms associated with the initial formation of Malaysia consumers' trust toward it.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79104558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose – This study aims to investigate the influence of ethical sales behaviour on relationship quality and its consequences in the context of telemarketing to identify the complex nature of relationship marketing. Design/methodology/approach – A survey with 100 qualified observations from financial institutions’ customers in Malaysia was conducted. A structural equation modelling approach was used. Findings – Ethical sales behaviour components, that is, security, honesty, and privacy, have significant effects on relationship quality. Satisfactory relationship quality has positive effects on relationship commitment and customer loyalty. Originality/value – This paper identifies ethical sales behaviour components, namely, security, honesty and privacy, in the context of telemarketing and proposes that ethical sales behaviour is an important factor of maintaining high level of relationship quality.
{"title":"The Relationship between Ethical Sale Behaviors with Loyalty Among Firm in Malaysia","authors":"Nur Falahi Suhaimi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3084395","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3084395","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose – This study aims to investigate the influence of ethical sales behaviour on relationship quality and its consequences in the context of telemarketing to identify the complex nature of relationship marketing. Design/methodology/approach – A survey with 100 qualified observations from financial institutions’ customers in Malaysia was conducted. A structural equation modelling approach was used. Findings – Ethical sales behaviour components, that is, security, honesty, and privacy, have significant effects on relationship quality. Satisfactory relationship quality has positive effects on relationship commitment and customer loyalty. Originality/value – This paper identifies ethical sales behaviour components, namely, security, honesty and privacy, in the context of telemarketing and proposes that ethical sales behaviour is an important factor of maintaining high level of relationship quality.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"117 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88820707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chen Attias, Robert Krauthgamer, R. Levi, Yaron Shaposhnik
We study the problem of a decision-maker having to select one of many competing alternatives (e.g., choosing between projects, designs, or suppliers) whose future revenues are a priori unknown and modeled as random variables of known probability distributions. The decision-maker can pay to test each alternative to reveal its specific revenue realization (e.g., by conducting market research), and her goal is to maximize the expected revenue of the selected alternative minus the testing costs. This model captures an interesting trade-off between gaining revenue of a high-yield alternative and spending resources to reduce the uncertainty in selecting it. The combinatorial nature of the problem leads to a dynamic programming (DP) formulation with high-dimensional state space that is computationally intractable. By characterizing the structure of the optimal policy, we derive efficient optimal and near-optimal policies that are simple and easy-to-compute. In fact, these policies are also myopic -- they only consider a limited horizon of one test. Moreover, our policies can be described using intuitive `testing intervals' around the expected revenue of each alternative, and in many cases, the dynamics of an optimal policy can be explained by the interaction between the testing intervals of various alternatives.
{"title":"Stochastic Selection Problems with Testing","authors":"Chen Attias, Robert Krauthgamer, R. Levi, Yaron Shaposhnik","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3076956","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3076956","url":null,"abstract":"We study the problem of a decision-maker having to select one of many competing alternatives (e.g., choosing between projects, designs, or suppliers) whose future revenues are a priori unknown and modeled as random variables of known probability distributions. The decision-maker can pay to test each alternative to reveal its specific revenue realization (e.g., by conducting market research), and her goal is to maximize the expected revenue of the selected alternative minus the testing costs. This model captures an interesting trade-off between gaining revenue of a high-yield alternative and spending resources to reduce the uncertainty in selecting it. The combinatorial nature of the problem leads to a dynamic programming (DP) formulation with high-dimensional state space that is computationally intractable. By characterizing the structure of the optimal policy, we derive efficient optimal and near-optimal policies that are simple and easy-to-compute. In fact, these policies are also myopic -- they only consider a limited horizon of one test. Moreover, our policies can be described using intuitive `testing intervals' around the expected revenue of each alternative, and in many cases, the dynamics of an optimal policy can be explained by the interaction between the testing intervals of various alternatives.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90466542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobias Mussner, A. Strobl, Viktoria Veider, Kurt Matzler
The present study examines the previously untested effect of work ethic on individual innovation behavior. These entrenched personal values that may remain unaffected by organizational constitution are suggested to shape a person's inclination to engage in innovative action. Deploying partial least squares (PLS) structural equation modeling (SEM), we show that being self-reliant and time-efficient positively influences employees' innovation behavior, while an attitude toward hard work and leisure has a negative impact. Moreover, self-reliance, leisure orientation, and centrality of work are positively moderated by fair salary, a specific form of relational reward that previously has been identified as an antecedent of motivation. The work at hand thus contributes to extant research by enhancing knowledge about the antecedents of innovative behavior, showing that inherent work-related values matter. As such, the study demonstrates the importance of considering the linkage of personal differences and motivational factors when examining the complex processes of individual innovation behavior.
{"title":"The Effect of Work Ethic on Employees' Individual Innovation Behavior","authors":"Tobias Mussner, A. Strobl, Viktoria Veider, Kurt Matzler","doi":"10.1111/caim.12243","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caim.12243","url":null,"abstract":"The present study examines the previously untested effect of work ethic on individual innovation behavior. These entrenched personal values that may remain unaffected by organizational constitution are suggested to shape a person's inclination to engage in innovative action. Deploying partial least squares (PLS) structural equation modeling (SEM), we show that being self-reliant and time-efficient positively influences employees' innovation behavior, while an attitude toward hard work and leisure has a negative impact. Moreover, self-reliance, leisure orientation, and centrality of work are positively moderated by fair salary, a specific form of relational reward that previously has been identified as an antecedent of motivation. The work at hand thus contributes to extant research by enhancing knowledge about the antecedents of innovative behavior, showing that inherent work-related values matter. As such, the study demonstrates the importance of considering the linkage of personal differences and motivational factors when examining the complex processes of individual innovation behavior.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"4 2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79745230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
H. Do, M. Shunko, Marilyn T. Lucas, David C. Novak
Recent studies have shown that the processing speed of employees in service‐based queueing systems is impacted by various behavioral factors. However, there is limited analytical work to investigate how these behavioral factors affect the overall performance of different queueing system designs. In this study, we focus on the response of human servers to the design and congestion level of the queueing system in which they operate. Specifically, we incorporate two behavioral factors into multi‐server analytical queueing models: (1) server speedup due to increase of workload, and (2) server slowdown due to social loafing when multiple workers share the workload. We evaluate how these factors affect the performance of both the multi‐server single‐queue (SQ) and multi‐server parallel‐queue (PQ) system and the relative superiority of each system with respect to the number of customers in queue and the expected wait time in queue. We show that the impact of workload‐dependent speedup can be decomposed into a direct effect and indirect effect on system performance. The direct effect leads to a reduced queue size due to increased expected service rate, while the indirect effect decreases queue size due to the “smoothing” effect. We quantify the performance impacts associated with both behavioral factors, illustrate the conditions where each effect dominates, and derive threshold values for these behavioral effects beyond which PQ systems outperform SQ systems. We also consider strategic routing and its impact on the performance of PQ systems. Our analytical contributions and numerical analyses offer important managerial guidance regarding the choice of the queueing system design and provide a theoretical foundation for future research in behavioral queueing.
{"title":"Impact of Behavioral Factors on Performance of Multi-Server Queueing Systems","authors":"H. Do, M. Shunko, Marilyn T. Lucas, David C. Novak","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3080700","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3080700","url":null,"abstract":"Recent studies have shown that the processing speed of employees in service‐based queueing systems is impacted by various behavioral factors. However, there is limited analytical work to investigate how these behavioral factors affect the overall performance of different queueing system designs. In this study, we focus on the response of human servers to the design and congestion level of the queueing system in which they operate. Specifically, we incorporate two behavioral factors into multi‐server analytical queueing models: (1) server speedup due to increase of workload, and (2) server slowdown due to social loafing when multiple workers share the workload. We evaluate how these factors affect the performance of both the multi‐server single‐queue (SQ) and multi‐server parallel‐queue (PQ) system and the relative superiority of each system with respect to the number of customers in queue and the expected wait time in queue. We show that the impact of workload‐dependent speedup can be decomposed into a direct effect and indirect effect on system performance. The direct effect leads to a reduced queue size due to increased expected service rate, while the indirect effect decreases queue size due to the “smoothing” effect. We quantify the performance impacts associated with both behavioral factors, illustrate the conditions where each effect dominates, and derive threshold values for these behavioral effects beyond which PQ systems outperform SQ systems. We also consider strategic routing and its impact on the performance of PQ systems. Our analytical contributions and numerical analyses offer important managerial guidance regarding the choice of the queueing system design and provide a theoretical foundation for future research in behavioral queueing.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73851323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Observational learning theories often assume that people’s actions can be observed. However, in many naturally-occurring environments, individuals can choose whether to disclose their behavior to others. We provide theoretical analysis of observational learning under optional disclosure conditions. We further examine empirically how individuals decide whether to reveal decisions. Although we find evidence for other- regarding disclosure behavior, our findings highlight the importance of providing public information about how the disclosure behavior affects others.
{"title":"Optional Disclosure and Observational Learning","authors":"Diefeng Peng, Yulei Rao, Xianming Sun, Erte Xiao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3083741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3083741","url":null,"abstract":"Observational learning theories often assume that people’s actions can be observed. However, in many naturally-occurring environments, individuals can choose whether to disclose their behavior to others. We provide theoretical analysis of observational learning under optional disclosure conditions. We further examine empirically how individuals decide whether to reveal decisions. Although we find evidence for other- regarding disclosure behavior, our findings highlight the importance of providing public information about how the disclosure behavior affects others.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81326578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A recent proposal to "redefine statistical significance" (Benjamin, et al. Nature Human Behaviour, 2017) claims that false positive rates "would immediately improve" by factors greater than two and replication rates would double simply by changing the conventional cutoff for 'statistical significance' from P<0.05 to P<0.005. I analyze the veracity of these claims, focusing especially on how Benjamin, et al neglect the effects of P-hacking in assessing the impact of their proposal. My analysis shows that once P-hacking is accounted for the perceived benefits of the lower threshold all but disappear, prompting two main conclusions: (i) The claimed improvements to false positive rate and replication rate in Benjamin, et al (2017) are exaggerated and misleading. (ii) There are plausible scenarios under which the lower cutoff will make the replication crisis worse.
最近一项“重新定义统计显著性”的提议(Benjamin等人)。《自然-人类行为》(Nature Human Behaviour, 2017)声称，假阳性率会因大于2的因素而“立即改善”，只需将传统的“统计显著性”截止值从P<0.05更改为P<0.005，复制率就会翻倍。我分析了这些说法的真实性，特别关注Benjamin等人在评估其提议的影响时如何忽视P-hacking的影响。我的分析表明，一旦p黑客被考虑到较低阈值的感知好处，就会消失，从而得出两个主要结论:(i)本杰明等人(2017)声称的对假阳性率和复制率的改善被夸大和误导了。(ii)有可能的情况是，较低的临界值将使复制危机恶化。
{"title":"Why 'Redefining Statistical Significance' Will Not Improve Reproducibility and Could Make the Replication Crisis Worse","authors":"Harry Crane","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3074083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3074083","url":null,"abstract":"A recent proposal to \"redefine statistical significance\" (Benjamin, et al. Nature Human Behaviour, 2017) claims that false positive rates \"would immediately improve\" by factors greater than two and replication rates would double simply by changing the conventional cutoff for 'statistical significance' from P<0.05 to P<0.005. I analyze the veracity of these claims, focusing especially on how Benjamin, et al neglect the effects of P-hacking in assessing the impact of their proposal. My analysis shows that once P-hacking is accounted for the perceived benefits of the lower threshold all but disappear, prompting two main conclusions: (i) The claimed improvements to false positive rate and replication rate in Benjamin, et al (2017) are exaggerated and misleading. (ii) There are plausible scenarios under which the lower cutoff will make the replication crisis worse.","PeriodicalId":10477,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Social Science eJournal","volume":"2003 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86245758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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