Ground freeze-thaw dynamics critically affect carbon cycling and ecosystem stability in cold regions. In the frozen ground region of northeastern China (FGRN China), these dynamics are governed by synergistic biotic, climatic, physiographic, and anthropogenic drivers, making spatiotemporal characterization and causal attribution particularly challenging. We establish a ground freeze-thaw dynamic index (FTDI) based on the ground freezing index (GFI) and ground thawing index (GTI), to quantify ground freeze-thaw dynamics in FGRN China (1982–2020). Using geostatistics, geodetector, and structural equation model (SEM), we analyze spatiotemporal patterns, critical thresholds, and driving mechanisms. The results indicate that the area where FTDI <0 (i.e., GFI > GTI) is shrinking significantly at a rate of 0.45 × 104 km2/a, with its gravity center shifting from the sporadic permafrost region (SPR) toward the discontinuous permafrost region (DPR) across the Da Xing'anling Mountains. This indicates that ground warming will be more pronounced in DPR within FGRN China. Furthermore, critical thresholds were detected only for precipitation changes (≈ −3.2 mm/a; beyond inhibiting thawing) and snow cover changes (≈ −0.19 %/a; beyond promoting thawing). SEM revealed a succession of dominant controlling factors and mechanistic transitions across the frozen ground degradation gradient. Precipitation changes primarily promoted thawing in DPR. In SPR, the inhibitory effect of soil water changes became prominent, while precipitation changes shifted from promotion to inhibition (suggesting a threshold). In the isolated patch permafrost region, thawing was regulated by the inhibitory effect of precipitation and the promoting effect of altitude. In the seasonal frozen ground region, the snow cover changes shifted from inhibition to promotion of thawing (suggesting a threshold). These findings reveal the environmental complexity governing ground freeze-thaw dynamics and provide insights into ecosystem stability and climate change projections in cold regions.
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