Cold Regions Science and Technology最新文献_第3页

Shear strength-temperature-moisture content relationship of warm frozen ground for thaw slump stability analysis 暖冻土抗剪强度-温度-含水率关系的融坍稳定性分析

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104820

Cedric Rugwizangoga , Greg Siemens

Permafrost covers nearly 50 % of Canada, co-located with intense climate warming occurring four times the global average. These factors have led to a significant increase in geohazards, including landslides, thawing glaciers, mass wasting, and instability in ice-rich soils. Retrogressive thaw slumps have increased by 60 % in recent decades raising concerns for linear infrastructure, built environment, community, and the environment. Previous research includes both site-specific and remote studies seeking to understand controlling factors of thaw slumps and triggering mechanisms that lead to a range of potential outcomes from significant retrogression, slumping, or self-stabilization. Recently physical modelling in a geotechnical centrifuge has shown that the thaw slump outcome (retrogression through self-stabilization) occurs at temperatures near 0 °C and that ice content plays a significant role. Shear failures observed during physical models give motivation to complete limit equilibrium analysis, however, the shear strength relationship is unknown and difficult to accurately measure in warm frozen ground (between −1 and 0 °C). In this paper, the shear strength-temperature-moisture content relationship of warm frozen ground is reported and used in stability analysis of shear failure thaw slumps. Results showed that shear strength significantly decreases between −1 and 0 °C and then remains constant at positive temperatures. Shear strength is very sensitive to changes in both temperature below zero and moisture content at positive and negative temperatures. Results were implemented in slope stability analyses to illustrate the high sensitivity of factor of safety to temperature and ice/moisture content in thawing fine-grained materials.

永久冻土覆盖了加拿大近50%的土地，与气候变暖的剧烈程度是全球平均水平的四倍。这些因素导致了地质灾害的显著增加，包括山体滑坡、冰川融化、大规模浪费和富冰土壤的不稳定。近几十年来，消退性融雪滑坡增加了60%，这引起了人们对线性基础设施、建筑环境、社区和环境的关注。先前的研究包括特定地点和远程研究，旨在了解融化滑坡的控制因素和触发机制，这些机制导致一系列潜在的结果，包括显著的倒退、滑坡或自稳定。最近岩土工程离心机的物理模拟表明，融坍的结果（通过自稳定的倒退）发生在接近0°C的温度下，冰含量起着重要作用。在物理模型中观察到的剪切破坏为完成极限平衡分析提供了动力，然而，在温暖的冻土中（在- 1和0°C之间），剪切强度关系是未知的，难以准确测量。本文报道了暖冻土的抗剪强度-温度-含水率关系，并将其应用于冻融滑坡的抗剪破坏稳定性分析。结果表明：在- 1 ~ 0°C之间，剪切强度显著降低，在正温度下保持不变；抗剪强度对零度以下温度和正、负温度下水分含量的变化都非常敏感。结果应用于边坡稳定性分析，说明了细粒材料融化过程中安全系数对温度和冰/水含量的高度敏感性。

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引用次数: 0

Multi-Physical Response and Directional Cation-Moisture Migration in Frozen Clay under Saline Electro-Osmosis 盐盐电渗透作用下冻结黏土的多物理响应及阳离子-水分定向迁移

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104815

Doudou Jin , Hongwei Zhang , Ze Zhang , Zhiyuan Wang , Yaqi Zhang

Amplified by global warming, permafrost degradation manifests as rising temperatures and reduced stability, diminishing the efficiency of passive cooling solutions (e.g., thermosyphons) in warm permafrost regions. Conventional active thawing approaches exhibit inherent limitations: poor controllability over melt-front propagation and unregulated pore-water migration trajectories. Inspired by the dual mechanisms of saline solutions depressing soil freezing points and electro-osmosis (EO) controlling moisture orientation, this study injected NaCl/ CaCl₂ solutions at varying concentrations into the anode during frozen clay EO. Current and temperature dynamics under diverse initial conditions were analyzed, alongside comparative assessment of pre−/post-treatment variations in moisture content, elemental distribution, and pH profile. Lower-valence cations demonstrated enhanced activity, manifested through higher current peaks and accelerated current growth rates. Rapid current surges triggered intense Joule heating, elevating soil temperature to the phase-transition threshold (0 °C) within abbreviated timeframes. Meanwhile, ice-clogged ion transport pathways induced biphasic current peaks rather than monophasic rise-decay curves. Post-treatment, directional migration toward the cathode occurred for both moisture and cations, exhibiting the electromigration hierarchy: H⁺ > Na⁺ > Ca²⁺ > H₂O. Consequently, pH shifts dominated the variation spectrum, with moisture redistribution being comparatively limited. The combination of EO with salt solution enables directional migration of water and ions in frozen clay, thereby achieving effective pre-thawing of frozen ground and offering a novel approach for foundation treatment in permafrost regions.

由于全球变暖的加剧，永久冻土退化表现为温度上升和稳定性降低，降低了温暖永久冻土区被动冷却解决方案（如热虹吸）的效率。传统的主动解冻方法表现出固有的局限性：对融冰前沿传播的可控性差，孔隙-水迁移轨迹不规范。受盐溶液降低土壤冰点和电渗透控制水分取向的双重机制的启发，本研究在冻结粘土电渗透过程中向阳极注入不同浓度的NaCl/ CaCl2溶液。分析了不同初始条件下的电流和温度动态，并比较了处理前后水分含量、元素分布和pH剖面的变化。低价阳离子表现出增强的活性，表现为更高的电流峰值和加速的电流增长率。快速的电流浪涌触发强烈的焦耳加热，在短时间内将土壤温度升高到相变阈值（0°C）。与此同时，冰堵塞的离子传输路径诱导的是双相电流峰值，而不是单相上升-衰减曲线。处理后，水分和阳离子都向阴极定向迁移，表现出电迁移层次：H+ >； Na+ > Ca2+ > H2O。因此，变化谱以pH变化为主，水分再分布相对有限。EO与盐溶液的结合可以使冻结粘土中的水和离子定向迁移，从而实现冻土的有效预解冻，为多年冻土地区的地基处理提供了一种新的方法。

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引用次数: 0

Hydro-thermo-mechanical coupling analysis of freeze-thaw process and optimization of freezing scheme in soft clay stratum 软粘土地层冻融过程的水-热-力耦合分析及冻结方案优化

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104816

Yao Bai , Yan Luo , Jiaxu Yan , Zhibo Xu , Yanxia Nie , Renliang Shan

This study addresses the challenges of frost heave and thaw settlement of typical soft clay stratum during Artificial Ground Freezing (AGF) projects through an integrated approach combining laboratory tests, theoretical modeling, and numerical simulations. According to the analysis of freeze-thaw test data of soft clay samples with initial moisture contents of 25 %, 30 %, and 35 %, there is a significant lag effect between thermal response and mechanical response during the freeze-thaw process. The observed residual deformation underscores the dominant role of frost heave in causing structural damage. The governing equations incorporating the latent heat of phase change, the convective heat effect of moisture migration, and the ice impedance correction coefficient were derived. Through secondary development of COMSOL Multiphysics, multi-field dynamic coupling and visualization have been achieved, including phase change heat transfer in the temperature field, moisture migration, and stress field. The reliability of the model was validated against experimental data. The simulation applied to the freezing project of the metro connecting passage shows that by reasonably reducing the diameter of the freezing pipes from the original 89 mm to 68 mm and optimizing the layout spacing (reducing 5 pipes), it is possible to significantly reduce the consumption of pipe materials while ensuring the safe thickness and design temperature of the freezing wall. This study demonstrated both safety and economic efficiency. This work provides a theoretical foundation and design optimization strategies for artificial freezing projects in high-moisture strata.

通过室内试验、理论模拟和数值模拟相结合的方法，研究了人工冻结工程中典型软粘土层的冻胀和融化沉降问题。通过对初始含水率为25%、30%和35%的软黏土冻融试验数据的分析，发现冻融过程中热响应与力学响应之间存在明显的滞后效应。观测到的残余变形强调了冻胀对结构破坏的主导作用。推导了考虑相变潜热、水汽迁移对流热效应和冰阻抗校正系数的控制方程。通过对COMSOL Multiphysics的二次开发，实现了温度场相变换热、水分迁移、应力场等多场动态耦合和可视化。通过实验数据验证了模型的可靠性。对地铁连接通道冻结工程的仿真分析表明，通过将冻结管直径由原来的89 mm合理减小到68 mm，并优化布置间距（减少5根），可以在保证冻结壁安全厚度和设计温度的同时，显著降低管材消耗。该研究证明了安全性和经济性。为高含水率地层人工冻结工程提供了理论依据和优化设计策略。

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引用次数: 0

Study on the influence of temperature field during thawing and sinking process of tropical undersea tunnel based on pipe curtain freezing method 基于管幕冻结法的热带海底隧道融沉过程温度场影响研究

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104814

Jun Hu , Huajing Gan , Tingfen Ye , Dukun Zhao , Shuai Zhang

With the rapid economic development of tropical coastal cities, undersea tunnels have become a crucial component of urban three-dimensional transport infrastructure. However, in addition to traditional construction challenges, tropical undersea tunnels also encounter significant risks related to freezing, thawing, and subsidence. The pipe curtain freezing method is the primary technique employed to address the issues of thawing and sinking of soft strata during the construction of tropical undersea tunnels. Inaccurate understanding of the variations in the thawing temperature field can result in rapid settlement during the thawing process, making the study of the thawing temperature field a critical issue. This study, set against the backdrop of the Sanya estuary channel project, employs both physical similarity tests and numerical simulations to validate findings mutually. It systematically elucidates the evolution of the forced thawing temperature field and the thawing behavior of permafrost using the pipe curtain freezing method. The results indicate that forced thawing significantly reduces the thawing cycle of the soil mass. Specifically, the temperature rise rate at monitoring points is faster the closer they are to the freezing tubes, followed by a brief phase change latent heat period; conversely, the further the distance from the tubes, the longer the phase change duration. The trends in temperature changes observed through both research methods during the thawing process are largely consistent, with temperature differences ranging from 1.5 °C to 2 °C, confirming the reliability of the numerical model. Furthermore, the thawing duration of the soil mass markedly decreases as the temperature of the circulating hot water increases. However, this effect becomes negligible when the circulating hot water temperature reaches 50 °Cor higher, indicating a threshold state between the thawing duration and water temperature increase, wherein thawing does not decrease linearly with temperature. The study establishes that there is an optimal thawing temperature for the pipe curtain freezing construction in tropical underwater tunnels, highlighting the importance of selecting an appropriate thawing temperature during actual construction processes.

随着热带沿海城市经济的快速发展，海底隧道已成为城市立体交通基础设施的重要组成部分。然而，除了传统的施工挑战外，热带海底隧道还面临着与冻结、融化和下沉有关的重大风险。管幕冻结法是解决热带海底隧道施工中软地层融化沉降问题的主要技术。对融化温度场变化的不准确理解可能导致融化过程中的快速沉降，这使得融化温度场的研究成为一个关键问题。本研究以三亚河口航道工程为背景，采用物理相似试验和数值模拟相结合的方法对研究结果进行相互验证。系统地阐述了管幕冻结法冻土强迫融化温度场的演变过程和冻土的融化行为。结果表明，强制融化显著缩短了土体的融化周期。监测点离冷冻管越近，升温速度越快，相变潜热期越短；相反，距离电子管越远，相变持续时间越长。两种研究方法在解冻过程中观测到的温度变化趋势基本一致，温差在1.5℃~ 2℃之间，证实了数值模型的可靠性。随着循环热水温度的升高，土体的融化持续时间明显缩短。然而，当循环热水温度达到50℃以上时，这种影响可以忽略不计，这表明解冻持续时间与水温升高之间存在阈值状态，其中解冻量不随温度线性减少。研究结果表明，热带水下隧道管幕冻结施工存在最优解冻温度，突出了在实际施工过程中选择合适的解冻温度的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Performance evaluation of strain gauges in frozen soils and application to load-transfer analysis of steel pipe piles 冻土应变片性能评价及在钢管桩荷载传递分析中的应用

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104818

Jiawei Gao , Ji Chen , Xin Hou , Qihang Mei , Anhua Xu , Shouhong Zhang , Tianchun Dong , Yaojun Zhao

Monitoring load transfer mechanisms in pile foundations is particularly critical in cold regions, where frozen soil properties, such as adfreeze bonding and temperature-induced deformation, complicate stress measurements and long-term performance evaluations. Although strain gauges are widely used in structural testing, their performance under low temperatures and freeze-thaw cycles requires further validation. This study systematically evaluates strain gauge reliability under coupled thermal and mechanical loading and applies the validated sensors to model tests of steel pipe piles in frozen soils, thereby linking laboratory evaluation with engineering practice. To examine measurement stability and accuracy, laboratory experiments were carried out under controlled temperature variations and cyclic loading. Results indicated that strain gauges maintained stable performance from −10.0 to +20.0 °C, while cyclic axial loading tests showed good repeatability, with mean absolute percentage errors generally below 5.0 %. The fitted elastic modulus (0.19 × 10⁶ MPa) also closely matched the theoretical value (0.20 × 10⁶ MPa). Application to model pile tests demonstrated that the gauges effectively captured axial force distribution, shaft resistance, and end resistance under different loading levels, reflecting the nonlinear load transfer behavior of piles in frozen soils. These findings demonstrate that, when properly validated and calibrated, strain gauges offer a reliable and cost-effective solution for structural sensing in cold-region foundations. Beyond laboratory insights, the study underscores their potential for long-term field applications, offering practical value for infrastructure risk assessment and design in permafrost and seasonally frozen regions.

在寒冷地区，监测桩基的荷载传递机制尤为重要，因为冻土的特性，如冻结粘结和温度引起的变形，使应力测量和长期性能评估变得复杂。虽然应变片广泛用于结构测试，但其在低温和冻融循环下的性能需要进一步验证。本研究系统地评估了热-力耦合载荷下应变片的可靠性，并将验证后的传感器应用于冻土中钢管桩的模型试验，从而将实验室评估与工程实际联系起来。为了检验测量的稳定性和准确性，在受控温度变化和循环载荷下进行了实验室实验。结果表明，应变片在−10.0 ~ +20.0°C范围内保持稳定的性能，而循环轴向加载试验具有良好的重复性，平均绝对百分比误差一般在5.0%以下。拟合弹性模量（0.19 × 106 MPa）与理论值（0.20 × 106 MPa）也非常接近。在模型桩试验中的应用表明，该测试仪能有效地捕捉不同荷载水平下桩的轴力分布、轴阻力和端阻力，反映了冻土中桩的非线性荷载传递行为。这些发现表明，当适当验证和校准时，应变计为寒冷地区基础的结构传感提供了可靠和经济的解决方案。除了实验室研究之外，该研究还强调了它们在长期现场应用中的潜力，为永久冻土和季节性冻结地区的基础设施风险评估和设计提供了实用价值。

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引用次数: 0

Research on the effects of train-induced wind on the thermal environment of tunnels in seasonally frozen regions 季节冻土区列车风对隧道热环境的影响研究

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104817

JinHang Qin , Keguo Sun , Chao Xiao , Tangjie Zheng , Yuchao Zheng

With the increasing operating speed of high-speed trains, the aerodynamic flow induced by trains during tunnel traversal exerts a growing impact on the thermal environment of cold-region tunnels. Based on the temperature monitoring data from the Wafangdian Tunnel, this study defines two thermal conditions: the positive-effect condition (P-Condition) and the negative-effect condition (N-Condition). Utilizing the validated numerical model, this study first analyzed the effect of train-induced wind on the tunnel thermal environment under the two conditions, then systematically investigated the regulatory roles of blocking ratio (B), train speed (v), and train length (L). The results indicate that under the N-Condition, the train-induced wind serves as a “cold pump,” which significantly enhances heat dissipation. This leads to a net heat loss of 85.22 × 10³ kJ, thus impairing the tunnel's thermal insulation. Conversely, under the P-Condition, the wind operates as a “heat source,” generating a cumulative net heat gain of 168.47 × 10³ kJ (equivalent to the heat from 20.12 kg of raw coal combustion, calorific value 8374 kJ/kg) and thereby benefiting the anti-freezing capacity. Furthermore, factors B, v, and L significantly regulate the tunnel thermal environment. Under N-Condition, higher values of these factors intensify heat dissipation, which is unfavorable for maintaining anti-freezing performance. Conversely, under P-Condition, increased levels promote heat accumulation within the tunnel, thereby enhancing freeze resistance. Based on this, during the operation, it is recommended to prioritize the monitoring of dynamic changes in the thermal condition, and further optimize the tunnel's anti-freezing performance by reasonably adjusting train operation parameters.

随着高速列车运行速度的提高，列车在隧道穿越过程中产生的气动气流对寒区隧道热环境的影响越来越大。根据瓦房店隧道温度监测数据，定义了两种热工况：正效应工况（p工况）和负效应工况（n工况）。利用已验证的数值模型，首先分析了两种条件下列车风对隧道热环境的影响，然后系统研究了阻塞比(B)、列车速度(v)和列车长度(L)对隧道热环境的调节作用。结果表明：在n工况下，列车诱导风起到了“冷泵”的作用，显著增强了车辆的散热能力；这导致净热损失为85.22 × 103 kJ，从而损害了隧道的隔热性能。相反，在p条件下，风作为“热源”运行，产生168.47 × 103 kJ的累计净热量增益（相当于20.12 kg原煤燃烧产生的热量，热值8374 kJ/kg），从而有利于防冻能力。此外，因子B、v和L对隧道热环境有显著调节作用。在n条件下，这些因子值越高，散热加剧，不利于防冻性能的保持。相反，在p条件下，增加的水平促进了隧道内的热量积累，从而增强了抗冻性。在此基础上，建议在运行过程中优先监测热工况动态变化，通过合理调整列车运行参数，进一步优化隧道防冻性能。

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引用次数: 0

Traction prediction of snow groomer based on track–snow mechanism 基于履带-雪机理的除雪机牵引预测

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104811

Qian Jiao , Lifang Zheng , Fei Ma , Boshen Liu , Lan Wang , Jiawei Sheng

Traction is essential for snow groomer traversability and safety, yet prediction remains challenging due to limited understanding of groomed snow mechanics and track–snow interactions. This study proposes an improved traction model grounded in comprehensive in-situ experiments. Pressure-sinkage and shear-displacement relationships were quantified for groomed snow with a density of 480–520 kg/

m^{3}

at temperatures of

-

20 to

-

15 °C. Based on the field measurements using a distributed sensor array, a dynamic, non-uniform pressure distribution model was established, which critically captures the pressure evolution under the tracks and replacing the conventional uniform-pressure assumption. The model maps snow compaction from groomer passes to the resulting track sinkage. A comprehensive traction prediction model was established by integrating these experimentally grounded components: mechanical properties, dynamic pressure, and compaction-induced sinkage. Validation with an instrumented snow groomer demonstrated an average traction prediction error of 8.29% under low slip conditions, significantly outperforming traditional traction prediction models. This empirically-driven framework provides a robust tool for optimizing vehicle performance and enabling autonomous grooming operations.

牵引力对雪车的穿越性和安全性至关重要，但由于对雪的力学和轨道与雪的相互作用的理解有限，预测仍然具有挑战性。在综合现场试验的基础上，提出了一种改进的牵引模型。在- 20至- 15°C的温度下，对密度为480-520 kg/m3的整理雪进行了压力沉降和剪切位移关系的量化。基于分布式传感器阵列的现场测量，建立了一个动态的非均匀压力分布模型，该模型能够准确地捕捉轨道下的压力演变，取代了传统的均匀压力假设。该模型绘制了从修整通道到最终轨道沉降的雪压实图。通过综合力学性能、动压力和压实沉降等实验接地因素，建立了综合的牵引预测模型。在低滑差条件下，雪机的平均牵引力预测误差为8.29%，明显优于传统的牵引力预测模型。这种经验驱动的框架为优化车辆性能和实现自动美容操作提供了强大的工具。

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引用次数: 0

Efficiency and environmental benefits of road snow-melting, anti-icing and icing smart detection technologies in cold regions: Review and discussion 寒冷地区道路融雪、防冰和结冰智能检测技术的效率和环境效益：综述与探讨

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104810

Yiliang Li, Jianguo Wei, Yuming Zhou

Road icing poses a significant threat to traffic safety and the durability of infrastructure in cold regions, necessitating the development of efficient and environmentally friendly snow-melting and anti-icing technologies, as well as accurate ice prediction methods. This paper systematically reviews and analyzes the current status of research and development trends in road snow-melting and anti-icing technologies, along with ice prediction methods, through CiteSpace bibliometric analysis and a literature review. It focuses on dissecting the research hotspots and future development directions of ice prediction technologies. A comparative analysis is conducted on the types, principles, applicable scenarios, de-icing efficiency, and environmental benefits of road snow-melting and anti-icing technologies. Additionally, the core principles and technical characteristics of road ice monitoring technologies are explored. Finally, the paper identifies existing challenges and future research prospects concerning road snow-melting, anti-icing, and ice monitoring technologies. This paper aims to provide references for ice prevention and treatment in road engineering, promoting a transition from passive response to active prevention and control in road de-icing, thereby enhancing road safety and the durability of infrastructure.

道路结冰对寒冷地区的交通安全和基础设施的耐久性构成重大威胁，因此需要开发高效环保的融雪和防冰技术，以及准确的冰况预测方法。本文通过CiteSpace文献计量分析和文献综述，系统回顾和分析了道路融雪防冰技术的研究现状和发展趋势，以及冰况预测方法。重点剖析海冰预测技术的研究热点和未来发展方向。对比分析了道路融雪和防冰技术的类型、原理、适用场景、除冰效率和环境效益。探讨了道路冰监测技术的核心原理和技术特点。最后，指出了道路融雪、防冰和冰监测技术存在的挑战和未来的研究前景。本文旨在为道路工程防冰治理提供参考，促进道路除冰由被动应对向主动防治转变，从而提高道路安全和基础设施的耐久性。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating electrical resistivity tomography into predictive thermal modeling of permafrost beneath railway infrastructure: Case study of the Hudson Bay Railway 将电阻率层析成像整合到铁路基础设施下永久冻土的预测热模拟中：哈德逊湾铁路的案例研究

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2025-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104809

Konstantin Ozeritskiy , Teddi Herring , Jocelyn L. Hayley , Emmanuel L'Herault , Pascale Roy-Léveillée

This study investigates the integration of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data into predictive thermal modeling of permafrost conditions at three sites along the Hudson Bay Railway in northern Manitoba. The model was initially calibrated using borehole temperature data collected under undisturbed natural conditions, followed by calibration of the subsurface temperature regime beneath the railway embankment using ERT-derived resistivity fields. The calibrated model was then used to forecast the ground temperature evolution over a 30-year period, supporting the assessment of infrastructure stability and long-term maintenance planning. This integrated approach demonstrates the value of ERT in locations where conventional ground temperature monitoring is limited or infeasible. By improving the spatial resolution of initial model conditions, the methodology enhances predictive accuracy, supporting better-informed design strategies and mitigation measures for infrastructure projects in permafrost regions.

本研究将电阻率层析成像（ERT）数据整合到马尼托巴北部哈德逊湾铁路沿线三个地点的永久冻土条件的预测热模拟中。该模型最初使用在未受干扰的自然条件下收集的井眼温度数据进行校准，随后使用ert导出的电阻率场校准铁路路堤下的地下温度状态。然后使用校准后的模型来预测30年的地温演变，为基础设施稳定性评估和长期维护规划提供支持。这种综合方法证明了ERT在常规地温监测有限或不可行的地方的价值。通过提高初始模型条件的空间分辨率，该方法提高了预测精度，为永久冻土区基础设施项目提供了更明智的设计策略和缓解措施。

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引用次数: 0

Comparative analysis of different machine learning models for prediction of compressive strength of early-age frozen concrete 不同机器学习模型在早期冻结混凝土抗压强度预测中的比较分析

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology

Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104808

Kunpeng Li , Zemei Wu , Xinyan Zheng , Yupu Wang , Yancong Zhang

The prediction of compressive strength of concrete is critical for establishing science-based mixture design criteria and ensuring long-term structural performance under aggressive environments, such as marine zones or cold regions. In this study, seven machine learning (ML) models were utilized to forecast the compressive strength of early-age frozen concrete (EFC). The effects of variables, including water-to-binder ratio, pre-curing time, freezing temperature, freezing time, and curing time, on the compressive strength of EFC were analyzed. The predictive accuracy of the seven ML models was compared. To assess variable influence on compressive strength of EFC, the Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) method was applied. The analysis demonstrated that seven ML models successfully predict the compressive strength of EFC, among which the models based on GBDT and XGBoost exhibited superior predictive performance. The R² values of the training set using GBDT and XGBoost were 0.9912 and 0.9929, while the R² values for the test set were 0.9573 and 0.9569. Global interpretation revealed that the water-to-binder ratio and air-entraining agent most significantly influenced the compressive strength of EFC. Finally, recommendations for enhancing the compressive strength of EFC were proposed. The findings from this research can help understand the strength development of EFC and provide technical guidance for the design and preparation of concrete infrastructures in cold regions.

混凝土抗压强度的预测对于建立科学的混合料设计标准和确保在恶劣环境下（如海洋区域或寒冷地区）的长期结构性能至关重要。在本研究中，使用7种机器学习（ML）模型来预测早期冻结混凝土（EFC）的抗压强度。分析了水胶比、预养护时间、冻结温度、冻结时间、养护时间等因素对EFC抗压强度的影响。比较了7种ML模型的预测精度。为了评估对EFC抗压强度的变量影响，采用Shapley加性解释（SHAP）方法。分析表明，7个ML模型均能成功预测EFC的抗压强度，其中基于GBDT和XGBoost的模型预测性能较好。使用GBDT和XGBoost的训练集的R2值分别为0.9912和0.9929，而测试集的R2值分别为0.9573和0.9569。整体解释表明，水胶比和引气剂对EFC抗压强度的影响最为显著。最后，提出了提高EFC抗压强度的建议。研究结果有助于了解寒区混凝土基础设施的强度发展规律，为寒区混凝土基础设施的设计和施工提供技术指导。

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