Cold Regions Science and Technology最新文献

{"title":"Detection of the freezing state and non-closure distances of loess with different water contents under bidirectional freezing by ultrasonic testing","authors":"Jiwei Zhang ,&nbsp;Jiahao Zhang ,&nbsp;Qingzhi Wang ,&nbsp;Song Zhang ,&nbsp;Shujie Liu ,&nbsp;Yao Liu ,&nbsp;Yuhao Wang ,&nbsp;Ligang Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiongbo Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104827","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104827","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurately determining the freezing state and non-closure distances of artificial frozen walls is crucial for evaluating their development effectiveness. However, under complex field conditions, traditional thermometer hole monitoring methods have limitations such as a limited number and fixed positions, leading to difficulties in detection or inaccurate results. This study conducted laboratory bidirectional freezing tests, integrating temperature and water content monitoring with NM-4A non-metallic ultrasonic testing technology to systematically analyze the evolutionary patterns of ultrasonic time-frequency parameters during the freezing process of loess with different water contents. The results show that phased sharp increases in P-wave velocity <em>(V</em>_<em>p</em>) and head wave amplitude (<em>A</em>_<em>h</em>), the transition of the frequency spectrum from multi-peak to single-peak, and abrupt changes in centroid frequency (<em>f</em>_<em>c</em>) and kurtosis of the frequency spectrum (<em>KFS</em>) can serve as key criteria for judging frozen wall closure. Dynamic changes in the reflection coefficient (<em>r</em>_<em>I</em>), transmission coefficients (<em>t</em>_<em>P</em>, <em>t</em>_<em>I</em>), and acoustic impedance field are the main mechanisms affecting ultrasonic propagation characteristics. Based on ray acoustics theory, a prediction equation for non-closure distances was established. Validation demonstrated high accuracy, with error ranges of 0.001–6.293 mm for laboratory tests and the accuracy range is 76.82% ∼ 91.56% for field measurements. Incorporating the four parameters (<em>V</em>_<em>p</em>, <em>A</em>_<em>h</em>, <em>f</em>_<em>c</em>, <em>KFS</em>) into radar charts enables qualitative evaluation of the frozen wall closure state. The ultrasonic testing method formed by combining this qualitative evaluation with the prediction equation provides an efficient and reliable technical means for judging the closure and quantifying the non-closure distance of bidirectionally frozen loess walls.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 104827"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Annual heat budget and seasonal variations in a northern river with ice processes","authors":"Can Ding ,&nbsp;Shicheng Li ,&nbsp;Joshua Johnson ,&nbsp;Hailay Zeray Tedla ,&nbsp;Eliisa Lotsari","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104829","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104829","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the heat budget dynamics of high-latitude rivers is crucial for predicting thermal regimes, assessing the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems, and informing effective water resource management. Despite their importance, detailed studies on the seasonal and transitional heat exchange processes in cold region environments remain limited. This study investigates the annual heat budget and seasonal variations of the Vantaanjoki River in southern Finland, with a particular focus on the influence of ice cover processes. Using meteorological, remote sensing, and in-situ measurements data collected from November 2022 to October 2023, a water/ice-air heat exchange analysis was performed to analyze four primary heat components: shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat. The results show pronounced seasonal variations, with summer months dominated by shortwave radiation as the main heat gain source, while winter periods are characterized by significant heat losses due to longwave radiation. The annual net heat flux averaged −11.6 W/m², indicating a near-balanced energy exchange over the year. Ice dynamics were monitored via image-based estimation of ice cover fraction, allowing classification into three surface conditions: open channel, partially ice-covered, and fully ice-covered. During freezing periods, longwave radiation accounted for over 60% of total heat loss, while shortwave radiation contributed marginally. In contrast, during melting periods, shortwave radiation became a more prominent heat gain component. The results provide critical insights into river heat budgets in high-latitude environments and contribute to improved understanding of river-atmosphere interactions under changing climatic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 104829"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Durable icephobicity: A lubricant-infused nickel scaffold approach","authors":"Mengjuan Wu ,&nbsp;Jie Wang ,&nbsp;Sanliang Ling ,&nbsp;Richard Whealthy ,&nbsp;Yizhou Shen ,&nbsp;Xianghui Hou","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104823","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104823","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The wind turbine blades are prone to icing phenomena under harsh and extreme environmental conditions, which significantly jeopardize the operational safety. In response to the critical challenges posed by the high energy consumption and low efficiency of current ice protection technology, the study aims to propose an optimized design for icephobic structure, leveraging the synergistic effect of phase change and the solid-ice interfacial mechanical behaviours. The proposed structure incorporates metallic scaffolds within polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) matrix infused with ice-depressing liquid. In this study, glycol and glycerol were selected as the ice-depressing liquids for this investigation. By leveraging the infused ice-depressing liquid, the concentration of existing hydroxyl groups on the layer surface increased, which effectively lowered the freezing point of supercooled droplets at the liquid-solid interfaces. Furthermore, the embedded metallic scaffolds play a dual role in enhancing both the mechanical durability and de-icing performance of the composite structure. The remarkable reduction in ice adhesion was effectively achieved through the enhanced micro-crack propagation behaviour and diminished fracture toughness at the solid-ice interfaces, primarily stemming from the enhanced elastic-plastic disparities between the various phases, which facilitate both crack initiation and propagation at the interface. Consequently, this process undermines interfacial bonding, thereby promoting a more effortless removal of ice. The newly developed icephobic structure exhibited impressive icephobicity and durability: the ice nucleation delay duration of supercooled water droplets at −20 °C on Ni scaffolds-PDMS infused with glycerol (NP-glycerol) has been prolonged to 179.7 ± 4.5 s, whereas the icing time of pure Al plate of equivalent thickness exhibited an icing time of only 9.0 ± 1.2 s. Furthermore, the ice adhesion strength of NP-glycerol remained remarkably stable at approximately 0.7 ± 0.1 kPa even after 50 icing/de-icing cycles, highlighting the exceptional durability of the fabricated structure. These findings suggest that the proposed icephobic structure, incorporating metallic scaffolds and ice-depressing liquid within PDMS matrix, offers a promising avenue for developing durable and effective anti-icing surfaces for diverse applications. Future research will focus on optimizing the scaffold geometry and investigating the influence of ice-depressing liquids to further enhance the icephobic performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 104823"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Residual stress evolution during ice accretion from a single water droplet","authors":"Motoki Sakaguchi ,&nbsp;Kanta Ishida ,&nbsp;Koichiro Tanaka ,&nbsp;Moeka Tsukamoto ,&nbsp;Chao Kang ,&nbsp;Yu Kurokawa","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104824","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104824","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ice accretion on solid surfaces at low temperatures causes serious problems in numerous engineering applications, such as aircraft, wind turbines, and power lines. To develop effective anti-icing and de-icing technologies, understanding the mechanism of residual stress evolution within the ice film during the accretion process is essential. In this study, experiments were conducted to clarify the residual stress evolution during the solidification of a single water droplet dropped onto a low-temperature stainless steel substrate. In-situ observations of the droplet impact, spreading, and solidification were performed, varying the substrate temperature as a key parameter. Simultaneously, strain was measured on the substrate's backside using a strain gauge, showing that tensile strain develops on the substrate as the droplet solidifies. Furthermore, the residual strain increased with the decreasing substrate temperature. Cracking occurred immediately at lower substrate temperatures, whereas higher temperatures required additional cooling for cracking. Numerical analysis reproduced these experimental observations, quantifying the stress evolution within the ice film. Temperature-dependent material properties were incorporated in the analysis, as well as a creep constitutive equation based on stress relaxation tests, thereby capturing the time-dependent residual strain on the substrate and elucidating the distribution and evolution of tensile residual stress within the ice film. Ultimately, tensile stress developed during solidification and increased with cooling, reaching approximately 7–8 MPa at the time of cracking. These findings provide a fundamental understanding of the thermo-mechanical processes during ice accretion, crucial for developing robust anti-icing and de-icing strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"245 ","pages":"Article 104824"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Thawing permafrost under Qinghai-Xizang Highway and its impacts on road performance based on multi-source observed data","authors":"Guoyu Li ,&nbsp;Mingtang Chai ,&nbsp;Wei Ma ,&nbsp;Fujun Niu ,&nbsp;Dun Chen ,&nbsp;Qingsong Du ,&nbsp;Yu Zhou ,&nbsp;Shunshun Qi ,&nbsp;Yapeng Cao ,&nbsp;Jianbing Chen ,&nbsp;Liyun Tang ,&nbsp;Yan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104828","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104828","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Qinghai-Xizang Highway (QXH) exhibits widespread pavement damages because of underlying permafrost thawing. To comprehensively reflect the pavement damages and their controlling factors, images were processed and compared from ground penetrating radar (GPR) and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in 7 typical sections along the QXH in the permafrost regions. The field monitoring data of ground temperature, embankment deformation were also collected to jointly investigate distribution, formation process and development mechanisms of roadway distress based on multi-source data. Indices such as distress ratio, pavement roughness and lateral deformation of the QXH were calculated by image segmentation and spatial analysis based on the UAV images. Results showed that (1) the temporal-spatial distribution of standard deviation of pavement altitude from the UAV image can quantitatively reflect the pavement roughness caused by embankment settlement and and vehicle loading during the roadway operation. The standard deviation has the maximum of difference of with 20–30 cm/a. (2) The average lateral deformation of the QXH can be extracted from the UAV image in thick embankment sections, which was 0.09 m/a in 4 of the 7 selected sections (K3059, K3119, K3177 and K3188). (3) Field monitoring data revealed the climate warming and permafrost thawing along the QXH. The GPR results and the UAV image can mutually verified for the explanation for the formation and development of the pavement damages. The findings can provide a comprehensive analysis method for the pavement damage and embankment distress based on multi-sourced data, and scientific guide for distress prediction and roadway maintenance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 104828"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145922121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of soluble salt on the reconstruction of saline gap-graded soil particle composition during freeze-thaw cycles","authors":"Weitong Xia ,&nbsp;Yujie Wang ,&nbsp;Shicong Sun ,&nbsp;Fengyuan Wu ,&nbsp;Jing Liu ,&nbsp;Qingbo Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104813","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104813","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbonate saline soil affected by soluble salts show a bimodal grain-size distribution and is highly erodible and prone to engineering hazards such as seepage erosion and slope instability. However, detailed studies on the influence mechanism of soluble salts on gap-graded characteristics remain limited, especially concerning the more complex particle reorganisation under freeze-thaw (F-T) cycles. Therefore, this study investigated non-saline soil (NS), low-salinity saline soil (LS), and high-salinity saline soil (HS) to examine their differences in particle size distribution, the uniformity coefficient, the degree of soil particle variation, and microstructural characteristics under different F-T cycles. The particle size distribution of NS was unimodal, while LS and HS exhibited a distinct bimodal particle size distribution. A critical boundary particle size of approximately 30 μm was identified, effectively demarcating the dominant processes: coarse particles larger than 30 μm predominantly underwent fragmentation, while those smaller than 30 μm tended to agglomerate. Soluble salts influenced the gap-graded characteristics through the dispersing effect of dissolved salts on fine particles and the cementing effect of crystalline salts on coarse particles. Therefore, compared with NS, both LS and HS exhibited larger dominant particle sizes and a higher uniformity coefficient before F-T cycles. After F-T cycles, driven by the diffuse double layer shell effect and cryogenic suction, unfrozen water in fine inter-particle pores migrated continuously into coarse inter-particle pores and underwent ice formation. This process simultaneously induced recrystallisation and agglomeration of fine particles, whereas the degree of fragmentation of coarse particles increased significantly. Furthermore, soil salinity had a two-phase impact on the agglomeration of fine particles. Specifically, compression of the diffuse double layer induced by high sodium ion concentrations during the freezing process counteracted the tendency of the diffuse double layer to thicken under low sodium ionic valence, further promoting the agglomeration of fine particles. The findings from this study can provide a theoretical foundation for mitigating salinisation and erosion hazards in saline soils of regions that undergo seasonal freezing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 104813"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uniaxial compressive behavior of frozen silty clay at extreme low temperature with varying initial water content","authors":"Jiaming Xian ,&nbsp;Wansheng Pei ,&nbsp;Yuanming Lai ,&nbsp;Mingyi Zhang ,&nbsp;Fan Yu ,&nbsp;Yanyan Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104825","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104825","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Current researches on frozen soil mechanics mainly focus on temperature above −30 °C. However, increasing extreme low temperature conditions (e.g., extreme cold weather in cold regions, artificial ground freezing construction, and liquefied natural gas storage) demands a clear understanding of frozen soil mechanics below −30 °C. In this study, uniaxial compression tests were conducted on silty clay samples at varied initial mass water contents (12%, 14%, 16%, 18%, and 20%) and temperatures ranging from −10 °C to −130 °C. The influence of extreme low temperature and initial water content on the mechanical behavior and failure mode were analyzed by combining the macro test and material compositions. The results show that the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) and elastic modulus increase as temperature decreases for soil with lower initial water content (12% to 16%). In contrast, at higher initial water content (18% to 20%), the UCS rises to a peak at −110 °C and then declines with further cooling. Meanwhile, the shapes of stress-strain curves have three types, including strain softening, strain hardening, and brittleness. All samples exhibit pronounced brittle transition at approximately −110 °C. Two brittleness evaluation methods were employed to quantitatively assess the brittleness level of the soil samples. Moreover, the failure mode also changes with temperature and initial water content, including the localized failure with shear band, the bulge failure, the splitting failure, and the crushing failure. The strength variation at extreme low temperature is attributed to the combined effect of the strength variation of the pore ice and the mineral compositions in soil particles, and the bond effect between ice and soil particles. These findings elucidate the mechanical behavior and the evolution of brittleness in frozen silty clay under extreme low temperature conditions. They can provide a scientific basis for safer geotechnical design and infrastructure resilience in cold environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 104825"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Data-driven natural gas pipeline reliability evaluation focusing on the mitigation effectiveness for frost heave in cold regions","authors":"Tian Xu ,&nbsp;Peng Zhang ,&nbsp;Pan Guo ,&nbsp;Wei Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104826","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104826","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural gas pipelines are widely distributed across cold regions, where they are threatened by frost heave. Parameter uncertainty and the complex mechanism of frost heave limit the reliability assessment of pipelines in cold regions. This study presents a novel framework to overcome these limitations in implementing reliability analysis. In the framework, the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method is incorporated to quantify uncertainty by generating a larger number of samples. A data-driven Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) model is developed to avoid the complex Limit State Function (LSF) for calculating pipeline damage. A closed-form Elastic Foundation Beam Model (EFBM) is developed to evaluate frost-heave-induced pipeline damage and to generate the database for training the BPNN model. The results indicate that the developed BPNN model can accurately predict frost-heave-induced bending stress, with a maximum error of 13.6 MPa. From the perspective of hazard mitigation, the finding reveals that targeting the frost-heave height is the most effective measure for improving reliability, which reduces additional failure probability by 18% and 42% compared with other measures. As mitigation levels increase, the uncertainty-induced pipeline failure probability discrepancy reaches 10.7%. The analysis results can guide targeted management strategies to improve the structural resilience of pipelines in cold regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 104826"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145922122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stress-rate-controlled compression behavior of compacted snow","authors":"Yuanpeng Zheng ,&nbsp;Tao Chen ,&nbsp;Chao Jiang ,&nbsp;Qinghua Huang ,&nbsp;Xiang-Lin Gu","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104821","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104821","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While many previous compression tests on compacted snow have employed displacement-controlled loading, studies under stress-rate control remain limited, even though compression under external pressure may better reflect engineering reality. To advance understanding of the compressive behavior of compacted snow under stress-controlled loading, this study prepared two types of specimens with average densities of 566 and 662 kg/m³ and conducted uniaxial compression tests across a wide range of stress rates, from 1.11 to 555.56 kPa/s, to capture transitions in failure behavior. Analysis of stress-strain curves, loading rate time histories, and visual records identified two ductile and three brittle failure modes that emerged with increasing stress rate, including modes not documented in displacement-controlled investigations. It was found that while the relationship between compressive strength and loading rate aligns with existing conclusions, the trend between modulus of deformation and stress rate depends on the types of specimens, which differed markedly in overall integrity during compression failure. Comparisons between stress-rate- and displacement-controlled compression further revealed their inherent complexity, indicating distinct physical mechanisms governing instability and failure under different loading controls, and demonstrating the inadequacy of mechanical testing conducted solely under the displacement-controlled regime. This study emphasizes the need to distinguish between local and overall failure when characterizing the mechanical properties of compacted snow, reaffirms the importance of snow densification, and identifies boundary stress rates between failure modes, offering useful context for future experimental and engineering studies involving compacted snow.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 104821"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate snow-avalanche linkage revealed by geomorphological, historical and tree-ring records in the central Spanish Pyrenees","authors":"Osvaldo Franco-Ramos ,&nbsp;Jaime Boyano-Galiano ,&nbsp;Alberto Muñoz-Torrero Manchado ,&nbsp;Juan Ignacio López-Moreno ,&nbsp;Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas","doi":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104819","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104819","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Snow avalanches are significant natural hazards in mountainous regions, and their frequency and magnitude are increasingly influenced by changing climatic conditions. This study presents a multi-proxy reconstruction of snow avalanche activity over the past century (1910–2014 CE) in the Canfranc Valley, Central Spanish Pyrenees. The reconstruction integrates geomorphic mapping, dendrochronology, historical archives, and climatic data. A total of 345 trees were sampled and analysed, yielding 1322 growth disturbances (GD), which enabled the reconstruction of 30 and 27 avalanche events in the Estiviellas (ES) and Rinconada (RI) paths, respectively. The analysis was complemented by geomorphological assessments based on high-resolution LiDAR-derived terrain models, along with historical records and fieldwork validation. Also, avalanche size was estimated using a bivariate statistical model based on runout distance and width, both inferred from the most distal affected trees. These size proxies, combined with return period analyses, indicate that the largest avalanches (e.g., 1962, 1986, 1993) occurred more frequently in the second half of the 20th century, while recent decades have been characterized by smaller but more frequent events, typically confined to upper slopes. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was applied to examine the relationships between reconstructed avalanche activity, snowpack, climate variables, and atmospheric circulation anomalies. Results show that negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) enhance precipitation and lower temperatures, thereby increasing snowpack depth and avalanche probability. Snowpack emerged as the principal mediator between meteorological variables and avalanche activity. Although long-term trends indicate increasing temperatures and precipitation, their direct influence on avalanche size was limited. These findings underscore the non-linear and threshold-dependent nature of avalanche dynamics and highlight the critical role of snowpack and regional climate variability. The observed decline in avalanche size and the shift toward smaller, more frequent events may reflect broader cryospheric transformations under warming conditions. This study provides valuable insights for risk assessment and the development of adaptive hazard management strategies in mountain environments affected by climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":10522,"journal":{"name":"Cold Regions Science and Technology","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 104819"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145922124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}