Pub Date : 2024-11-02DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01813-w
Mark J. Grosvenor, Vissia Ardiyani, Martin J. Wooster, Stefan Gillott, David C. Green, Puji Lestari, Wiranda Suri
Tropical peatland fires generate substantial quantities of airborne fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and in Indonesia are intensified during El Niño-related drought leading to severe air quality impacts affecting local and distant populations. Limited in-situ data often necessitates reliance on air quality models, like that of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, whose accuracy in extreme conditions is not fully understood. Here we demonstrate how a network of low-cost sensors around Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan during the 2019 fire season, quantified extreme air quality and city-scale variability. The data indicates relatively strong model performance. Health impacts are substantial with estimates of over 1200 excess deaths in the Palangka Raya region, over 3200 across Central Kalimantan and more than 87,000 nationwide in 2019 due to fire-induced PM2.5 exposure. These findings highlight the need for urgent action to mitigate extreme fire events, including reducing fire use and landscape remediation to prevent peat fire ignition. Networks of low-cost sensors can be used with atmospheric models to understand variability of air quality on a fine scale and show that emissions from peatland fires contribute to many excess deaths, suggests an analysis from the 2019 fire season in Kalimantan
{"title":"Catastrophic impact of extreme 2019 Indonesian peatland fires on urban air quality and health","authors":"Mark J. Grosvenor, Vissia Ardiyani, Martin J. Wooster, Stefan Gillott, David C. Green, Puji Lestari, Wiranda Suri","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01813-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01813-w","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical peatland fires generate substantial quantities of airborne fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and in Indonesia are intensified during El Niño-related drought leading to severe air quality impacts affecting local and distant populations. Limited in-situ data often necessitates reliance on air quality models, like that of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, whose accuracy in extreme conditions is not fully understood. Here we demonstrate how a network of low-cost sensors around Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan during the 2019 fire season, quantified extreme air quality and city-scale variability. The data indicates relatively strong model performance. Health impacts are substantial with estimates of over 1200 excess deaths in the Palangka Raya region, over 3200 across Central Kalimantan and more than 87,000 nationwide in 2019 due to fire-induced PM2.5 exposure. These findings highlight the need for urgent action to mitigate extreme fire events, including reducing fire use and landscape remediation to prevent peat fire ignition. Networks of low-cost sensors can be used with atmospheric models to understand variability of air quality on a fine scale and show that emissions from peatland fires contribute to many excess deaths, suggests an analysis from the 2019 fire season in Kalimantan","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01813-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142574202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01823-8
Michael Schindler, Jie Xu, Michael F. Hochella Jr
Nanomaterials have unique properties and play critical roles in the budget, cycling, and chemical processing of elements on Earth. An understanding of the cycling of nanomaterials can be greatly improved if the pathways of their formation are clearly recognized and understood. Here, we show that nanomaterial formation pathways mediated by aqueous fluids can be grouped into four major categories, abiotic and biotic processes coupled and decoupled from weathering processes. These can be subdivided in 18 subcategories relevant to the critical zone, and environments such as ocean hydrothermal vents and the upper mantle. Similarly, pathways in the gas phase such as volcanic fumaroles, wildfires and particle formation in the stratosphere and troposphere can be grouped into two major groups and five subcategories. In the most fundamental sense, both aqueous-fluid and gaseous pathways provide an understanding of the formation of all minerals which are inherently based on nanoscale precursors and reactions. The formation of nanomaterials in aqueous fluids can be explained by four different pathways: formation by biotic and abiotic processes, coupled and decoupled with weathering processes. In the Earth’s critical zone, these pathways can be classified into 18 subcategories based on the surrounding environment.
{"title":"Abiotic and biotic-controlled nanomaterial formation pathways within the Earth’s nanomaterial cycle","authors":"Michael Schindler, Jie Xu, Michael F. Hochella Jr","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01823-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01823-8","url":null,"abstract":"Nanomaterials have unique properties and play critical roles in the budget, cycling, and chemical processing of elements on Earth. An understanding of the cycling of nanomaterials can be greatly improved if the pathways of their formation are clearly recognized and understood. Here, we show that nanomaterial formation pathways mediated by aqueous fluids can be grouped into four major categories, abiotic and biotic processes coupled and decoupled from weathering processes. These can be subdivided in 18 subcategories relevant to the critical zone, and environments such as ocean hydrothermal vents and the upper mantle. Similarly, pathways in the gas phase such as volcanic fumaroles, wildfires and particle formation in the stratosphere and troposphere can be grouped into two major groups and five subcategories. In the most fundamental sense, both aqueous-fluid and gaseous pathways provide an understanding of the formation of all minerals which are inherently based on nanoscale precursors and reactions. The formation of nanomaterials in aqueous fluids can be explained by four different pathways: formation by biotic and abiotic processes, coupled and decoupled with weathering processes. In the Earth’s critical zone, these pathways can be classified into 18 subcategories based on the surrounding environment.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11530374/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142567804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The observed global mean surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012 was slower than that since 1951. The relative contributions of all relevant factors including climate forcers, however, have not been comprehensively analyzed. Using a reduced-complexity climate model and an observationally constrained statistical model, here we find that La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle contributed approximately 50% and 26% of the total warming slowdown during 1998-2012 compared to 1951-2012. Furthermore, reduced ozone-depleting substances and methane accounted for roughly a quarter of the total warming slowdown, which can be explained by changes in atmospheric concentrations. We identify that non-CO2 greenhouse gases played an important role in slowing global warming during 1998-2012. Together, La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle can explain about three quarters of the warming slowdown between 1998 and 2012, whereas changes in the atmospheric levels of methane and ozone depleting substances explain the remaining quarter, according to analyses with a reduced-complexity climate model.
{"title":"Reductions in atmospheric levels of non-CO2 greenhouse gases explain about a quarter of the 1998-2012 warming slowdown","authors":"Xuanming Su, Hideo Shiogama, Katsumasa Tanaka, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Watanabe, Michio Kawamiya, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tokuta Yokohata","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01723-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01723-x","url":null,"abstract":"The observed global mean surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012 was slower than that since 1951. The relative contributions of all relevant factors including climate forcers, however, have not been comprehensively analyzed. Using a reduced-complexity climate model and an observationally constrained statistical model, here we find that La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle contributed approximately 50% and 26% of the total warming slowdown during 1998-2012 compared to 1951-2012. Furthermore, reduced ozone-depleting substances and methane accounted for roughly a quarter of the total warming slowdown, which can be explained by changes in atmospheric concentrations. We identify that non-CO2 greenhouse gases played an important role in slowing global warming during 1998-2012. Together, La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle can explain about three quarters of the warming slowdown between 1998 and 2012, whereas changes in the atmospheric levels of methane and ozone depleting substances explain the remaining quarter, according to analyses with a reduced-complexity climate model.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01723-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142574215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-30DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z
Xuqian Li, Qingxiang Li, Martin Wild, Phil Jones
Tracking the energy balance of the Earth system is a key method for studying the contribution of human activities to climate change. However, accurately estimating the surface energy balance has long been a challenge, primarily due to uncertainties that dwarf the energy flux changes induced and a lack of precise observational data at the surface. We have employed the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method, integrating it with recent developments in surface solar radiation observational data, to refine the ensemble of CMIP6 model outputs. This has resulted in an enhanced estimation of Surface Earth System Energy Imbalance (EEI) changes since the late 19th century. Our findings show that CMIP6 model outputs, constrained by this observational data, reflect changes in energy imbalance consistent with observations in Ocean Heat Content (OHC), offering a narrower uncertainty range at the 95% confidence level than previous estimates. Observing the EEI series, dominated by changes due to external forcing, we note a relative stability (0.22 Wm−2) over the past half-century, but with a intensification (reaching 0.80 Wm−2) in the mid to late 1990s, indicating an escalation in the adverse impacts of global warming and climate change, which provides another independent confirmation of what recent studies have shown. Estimated changes in the energy balance at the Earth’s surface are consistent with observations of ocean heat content and have been relatively stable between about 1960 to 1995 with an intensification thereafter, suggest estimates of the surface energy imbalance with Bayesian model averaging and up-to-date observations.
{"title":"An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century","authors":"Xuqian Li, Qingxiang Li, Martin Wild, Phil Jones","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z","url":null,"abstract":"Tracking the energy balance of the Earth system is a key method for studying the contribution of human activities to climate change. However, accurately estimating the surface energy balance has long been a challenge, primarily due to uncertainties that dwarf the energy flux changes induced and a lack of precise observational data at the surface. We have employed the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method, integrating it with recent developments in surface solar radiation observational data, to refine the ensemble of CMIP6 model outputs. This has resulted in an enhanced estimation of Surface Earth System Energy Imbalance (EEI) changes since the late 19th century. Our findings show that CMIP6 model outputs, constrained by this observational data, reflect changes in energy imbalance consistent with observations in Ocean Heat Content (OHC), offering a narrower uncertainty range at the 95% confidence level than previous estimates. Observing the EEI series, dominated by changes due to external forcing, we note a relative stability (0.22 Wm−2) over the past half-century, but with a intensification (reaching 0.80 Wm−2) in the mid to late 1990s, indicating an escalation in the adverse impacts of global warming and climate change, which provides another independent confirmation of what recent studies have shown. Estimated changes in the energy balance at the Earth’s surface are consistent with observations of ocean heat content and have been relatively stable between about 1960 to 1995 with an intensification thereafter, suggest estimates of the surface energy imbalance with Bayesian model averaging and up-to-date observations.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01802-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-30DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01794-w
Sören Drabesch, Oliver J. Lechtenfeld, Esmira Bibaj, José M. León Ninin, Juan Lezama Pachecco, Scott Fendorf, Britta Planer-Friedrich, Andreas Kappler, E. Marie Muehe
Climate change and metals independently stress soil microbiomes, but their combined effects remain unresolved. Here we show that future climate affects soil cadmium through altered soil microbiome and nutrient cycles, with soil pH as critical factor. In soils with pH<7 and during summer temperatures, future climate increased porewater cadmium, shifting total and potentially active taxonomic microbiome structures. Microbial ammonium oxidation released protons liberating cadmium through cation exchange from mineral surfaces. When porewater cadmium levels became toxic to non-cadmium-tolerant bacteria, microbial activity, and nutrient cycling decreased, reducing carbon and nitrogen emissions. In contrast, pH>7 soil show no climate impacts on cadmium mobilization, though imprints on microbiome structure were apparent. Subsequent nutrient cycling increased under future climate, stimulating soil respiration and nitrous oxide release. These findings underscore complex interactions between climate change and soil contaminants affecting the soil microbiome and its activity and highlights potential impacts on crop production, groundwater quality, and climate feedback. Complex interactions between future climate, soil microbiome, and soil cadmium negatively impact microbial activity and nutrient cycling in soil with pH below 7, which potentially affects crop production, groundwater quality, and climate feedback, according to a series of laboratory experiments conducted with sampled soil.
{"title":"Climate induced microbiome alterations increase cadmium bioavailability in agricultural soils with pH below 7","authors":"Sören Drabesch, Oliver J. Lechtenfeld, Esmira Bibaj, José M. León Ninin, Juan Lezama Pachecco, Scott Fendorf, Britta Planer-Friedrich, Andreas Kappler, E. Marie Muehe","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01794-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01794-w","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and metals independently stress soil microbiomes, but their combined effects remain unresolved. Here we show that future climate affects soil cadmium through altered soil microbiome and nutrient cycles, with soil pH as critical factor. In soils with pH<7 and during summer temperatures, future climate increased porewater cadmium, shifting total and potentially active taxonomic microbiome structures. Microbial ammonium oxidation released protons liberating cadmium through cation exchange from mineral surfaces. When porewater cadmium levels became toxic to non-cadmium-tolerant bacteria, microbial activity, and nutrient cycling decreased, reducing carbon and nitrogen emissions. In contrast, pH>7 soil show no climate impacts on cadmium mobilization, though imprints on microbiome structure were apparent. Subsequent nutrient cycling increased under future climate, stimulating soil respiration and nitrous oxide release. These findings underscore complex interactions between climate change and soil contaminants affecting the soil microbiome and its activity and highlights potential impacts on crop production, groundwater quality, and climate feedback. Complex interactions between future climate, soil microbiome, and soil cadmium negatively impact microbial activity and nutrient cycling in soil with pH below 7, which potentially affects crop production, groundwater quality, and climate feedback, according to a series of laboratory experiments conducted with sampled soil.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01794-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-29DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01798-6
Filomena Silva, Ramia Al Bakain, Gilles Pradeau, Mathieu Ben Braham, Jelena Prtorić, Nassim Ait-Mouheb, Elena Gomez, Patrick Allard
Plastics pollution, persistent chemical contamination and inadequately treated wastewater are three key aspects that hinder access to safe and affordable water for all. We argue that a strong priority on pollution avoidance, research for remediation, and tighter regulation and monitoring must be implemented to make progress. Plastics pollution, persistent chemical contamination and inadequately treated wastewater are three key aspects that hinder access to safe and affordable water for all. This Comment argues that a strong priority on pollution avoidance, research for remediation, and tighter regulation and monitoring must be implemented to make progress.
{"title":"Protection over restoration to ensure water sustainability","authors":"Filomena Silva, Ramia Al Bakain, Gilles Pradeau, Mathieu Ben Braham, Jelena Prtorić, Nassim Ait-Mouheb, Elena Gomez, Patrick Allard","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01798-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01798-6","url":null,"abstract":"Plastics pollution, persistent chemical contamination and inadequately treated wastewater are three key aspects that hinder access to safe and affordable water for all. We argue that a strong priority on pollution avoidance, research for remediation, and tighter regulation and monitoring must be implemented to make progress. Plastics pollution, persistent chemical contamination and inadequately treated wastewater are three key aspects that hinder access to safe and affordable water for all. This Comment argues that a strong priority on pollution avoidance, research for remediation, and tighter regulation and monitoring must be implemented to make progress.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-6"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01798-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-29DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01782-0
Ellen Oldenburg, Raphael M. Kronberg, Katja Metfies, Matthias Wietz, Wilken-Jon von Appen, Christina Bienhold, Ovidiu Popa, Oliver Ebenhöh
The Arctic Ocean is undergoing a major transition as a result of global warming, with uncertain consequences for its ecosystems. Our study introduces an integrated analytical approach using co-occurrence networks, convergent cross-mapping, and energy landscape analysis. Applied to four years of amplicon data from Fram Strait, located at the boundary between Arctic and Atlantic waters, our method identifies keystone species in seasonal microbial communities, elucidates causal interactions, and predicts stable configurations across changing environments. We find strong evidence for a “winter reset”, implying that organisms representing the spring bloom are largely determined by prevailing environmental conditions during winter. In addition, our analysis suggests that winter communities may adapt more readily to expected Atlantification than summer communities. These results highlight the utility of innovative time-series analyses in disentangling ecosystem dynamics. This approach provides critical insights into Arctic ecological interactions, dynamics, and resilience and aids in understanding ecosystem responses to environmental change. Winter environmental conditions largely determine prevailing organisms of spring blooms in the Fram Strait, according to a combined framework of co-occurrence networks, convergent cross-mapping networks, and energy landscape analysis.
{"title":"Beyond blooms: the winter ecosystem reset determines microeukaryotic community dynamics in the Fram Strait","authors":"Ellen Oldenburg, Raphael M. Kronberg, Katja Metfies, Matthias Wietz, Wilken-Jon von Appen, Christina Bienhold, Ovidiu Popa, Oliver Ebenhöh","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01782-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01782-0","url":null,"abstract":"The Arctic Ocean is undergoing a major transition as a result of global warming, with uncertain consequences for its ecosystems. Our study introduces an integrated analytical approach using co-occurrence networks, convergent cross-mapping, and energy landscape analysis. Applied to four years of amplicon data from Fram Strait, located at the boundary between Arctic and Atlantic waters, our method identifies keystone species in seasonal microbial communities, elucidates causal interactions, and predicts stable configurations across changing environments. We find strong evidence for a “winter reset”, implying that organisms representing the spring bloom are largely determined by prevailing environmental conditions during winter. In addition, our analysis suggests that winter communities may adapt more readily to expected Atlantification than summer communities. These results highlight the utility of innovative time-series analyses in disentangling ecosystem dynamics. This approach provides critical insights into Arctic ecological interactions, dynamics, and resilience and aids in understanding ecosystem responses to environmental change. Winter environmental conditions largely determine prevailing organisms of spring blooms in the Fram Strait, according to a combined framework of co-occurrence networks, convergent cross-mapping networks, and energy landscape analysis.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01782-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-29DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01804-x
Davide Zanchettin, Angelo Rubino
Observed North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are modulated by a recurrent alternation of anomalously warm and cold interdecadal phases known as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Here we use observations and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations to demonstrate an ongoing acceleration of North Atlantic surface warming, which implies a smaller contribution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability to 21st century North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies than previously thought. Future projections of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability from realistic climate simulations are poorly constrained, yet a relaxation to a neutral phase by the mid-21st century emerges as the most probable evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. In the simulations, the mitigating effects of a less likely upcoming cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability are overwhelmed by fast North Atlantic surface warming, which is robustly projected to persist in upcoming decades independent of emission scenarios. Sustained North Atlantic surface warming is therefore expected to continue in the near future. Warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is accelerating, and projected to be stronger than natural variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, according to an analysis of climate model simulations.
{"title":"Accelerated North Atlantic surface warming reshapes the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability","authors":"Davide Zanchettin, Angelo Rubino","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01804-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01804-x","url":null,"abstract":"Observed North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are modulated by a recurrent alternation of anomalously warm and cold interdecadal phases known as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Here we use observations and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations to demonstrate an ongoing acceleration of North Atlantic surface warming, which implies a smaller contribution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability to 21st century North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies than previously thought. Future projections of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability from realistic climate simulations are poorly constrained, yet a relaxation to a neutral phase by the mid-21st century emerges as the most probable evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. In the simulations, the mitigating effects of a less likely upcoming cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability are overwhelmed by fast North Atlantic surface warming, which is robustly projected to persist in upcoming decades independent of emission scenarios. Sustained North Atlantic surface warming is therefore expected to continue in the near future. Warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is accelerating, and projected to be stronger than natural variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, according to an analysis of climate model simulations.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01804-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Peatlands are globally important carbon sinks but are frequently drained. Drainage activities reduce overall methane emissions; however they are often accompanied by the construction of ditches, which are potential methane emission hotspots. Yet, the offsets of methane emissions from creating ditches in peatlands under different climate zones and land-use types remain unclear. Here we conducted a global meta-analysis by compiling annual methane emissions from paired near-pristine peatlands and terrestrial portion of drained peatlands and ditches to address this issue. Results showed that ditches occupy approximately 3.8 (95% confidence interval: 3.1~4.4)% of all drained peatlands. Ditches emit 695 (511~898) kg ha−1 yr−1 methane overall, with the highest emissions observed in (sub)tropics. Globally, ditch emissions offset approximately 12 (10~14)% for reductions in methane emissions from peatland drainage. Our findings demonstrate the importance of including ditch methane emissions to quantify emission factors for regional to global peatlands affected by drainage. Peatland ditches are methane emissions hotspots that offset around 12% of the emissions reductions that result from drainage, according to a global meta-analysis of peatland studies.
{"title":"Ditch emissions partially offset global reductions in methane emissions from peatland drainage","authors":"Dezhao Gan, Zelong Zhang, Huinan Li, Dongsheng Yu, Zheng Li, Ruijun Long, Shuli Niu, Hongchao Zuo, Xianhong Meng, Jinsong Wang, Lei Ma","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01818-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01818-5","url":null,"abstract":"Peatlands are globally important carbon sinks but are frequently drained. Drainage activities reduce overall methane emissions; however they are often accompanied by the construction of ditches, which are potential methane emission hotspots. Yet, the offsets of methane emissions from creating ditches in peatlands under different climate zones and land-use types remain unclear. Here we conducted a global meta-analysis by compiling annual methane emissions from paired near-pristine peatlands and terrestrial portion of drained peatlands and ditches to address this issue. Results showed that ditches occupy approximately 3.8 (95% confidence interval: 3.1~4.4)% of all drained peatlands. Ditches emit 695 (511~898) kg ha−1 yr−1 methane overall, with the highest emissions observed in (sub)tropics. Globally, ditch emissions offset approximately 12 (10~14)% for reductions in methane emissions from peatland drainage. Our findings demonstrate the importance of including ditch methane emissions to quantify emission factors for regional to global peatlands affected by drainage. Peatland ditches are methane emissions hotspots that offset around 12% of the emissions reductions that result from drainage, according to a global meta-analysis of peatland studies.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01818-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-29DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01800-1
Benjamin K. Sovacool, Darrick Evensen, Chad M. Baum, Livia Fritz, Sean Low
Climate intervention technologies such as carbon dioxide removal and solar geoengineering are becoming more actively considered as solutions to global warming. The demographic aspects of the public serve as a core determinant of social vulnerability and the ability for people to cope with, or fail to cope with, exposure to heat waves, air pollution, or disruptions in access to modern energy services. This study examines public preferences for 10 different climate interventions utilizing an original, large-scale, cross-country set of nationally representative surveys in 30 countries. It focuses intently on the demographic dimensions of gender, youth and age, poverty, and income as well as intersections and interactions between these categories. We find that support for the more engineered forms of carbon removal decreases with age. Gender has little effect overall. Those in poverty and the Global South are nearly universally more supportive of climate interventions of various types. Public support for solar geoengineering and carbon dioxide removal methods decreases with age, and gender has little effect overall, according to an analysis combining the survey of 30 844 participants from 30 countries and a statistical approach.
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