Pub Date : 2024-08-21DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01569-3
Andrew W. Dale, Sonja Geilert, Isabel Diercks, Michael Fuhr, Mirjam Perner, Florian Scholz, Klaus Wallmann
Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere and storage over long times scales in terrestrial and marine reservoirs is urgently needed to limit global warming and for sustainable management of the global carbon cycle. Ocean alkalinity enhancement by the artificial addition of carbonate minerals to the seafloor has been proposed as a method to sequester atmospheric CO2 and store it in the ocean as dissolved bicarbonate. Here, a reaction-transport model is used to scrutinize the efficacy of calcite addition and dissolution at a well-studied site in the southwestern Baltic Sea – a brackish coastal water body in northern Europe. We find that most calcite is simply buried without dissolution under moderate addition rates. Applying the model to other sites in the Baltic Sea suggests that dissolution rates and efficiencies are higher in areas with low salinity and undersaturated bottom waters. A simple box model predicts a tentative net CO2 uptake rate from the atmosphere of 3.2 megatonnes of carbon dioxide per year for the wider Baltic Sea after continually adding calcite to muddy sediments for 10 years. More robust estimates now require validation by field studies. Carbon dioxide can be removed from the atmosphere at an uptake rate of 3.2 megatonnes of carbon dioxide per year by continually adding calcite to mud-bearing sediments in the Baltic Sea, according to an empirical model analysis.
{"title":"Seafloor alkalinity enhancement as a carbon dioxide removal strategy in the Baltic Sea","authors":"Andrew W. Dale, Sonja Geilert, Isabel Diercks, Michael Fuhr, Mirjam Perner, Florian Scholz, Klaus Wallmann","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01569-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01569-3","url":null,"abstract":"Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere and storage over long times scales in terrestrial and marine reservoirs is urgently needed to limit global warming and for sustainable management of the global carbon cycle. Ocean alkalinity enhancement by the artificial addition of carbonate minerals to the seafloor has been proposed as a method to sequester atmospheric CO2 and store it in the ocean as dissolved bicarbonate. Here, a reaction-transport model is used to scrutinize the efficacy of calcite addition and dissolution at a well-studied site in the southwestern Baltic Sea – a brackish coastal water body in northern Europe. We find that most calcite is simply buried without dissolution under moderate addition rates. Applying the model to other sites in the Baltic Sea suggests that dissolution rates and efficiencies are higher in areas with low salinity and undersaturated bottom waters. A simple box model predicts a tentative net CO2 uptake rate from the atmosphere of 3.2 megatonnes of carbon dioxide per year for the wider Baltic Sea after continually adding calcite to muddy sediments for 10 years. More robust estimates now require validation by field studies. Carbon dioxide can be removed from the atmosphere at an uptake rate of 3.2 megatonnes of carbon dioxide per year by continually adding calcite to mud-bearing sediments in the Baltic Sea, according to an empirical model analysis.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01569-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142021821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-21DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01542-0
Cassiano Gustavo Messias, Cláudio A. de Almeida, Daniel E. Silva, Luciana S. Soler, Luis E. Maurano, Vagner L. Camilotti, Fábio C. Alves, Libério J. da Silva, Mariane S. Reis, Thiago C. de Lima, Vivian Renó, Deborah L. C. Lima, Amanda P. Belluzzo, Camila B. Quadros, Delmina C. M. Barradas, Douglas R. V. de Moraes, Eduardo F. M. Bastos, Igor P. Cunha, Jefferson J. de Souza, Lucélia S. de Barros, Luiz Henrique A. Gusmão, Rodrigo de Almeida, Dayane R. V. de Moraes, Diego M. Silva, Eduardo H. S. Chrispim, João Felipe S. K. C. Pinto, Manoel R. Ribeiro Neto, Marlon Henrique H. Matos, Noeli Aline P. Moreira, Raíssa C. dos S. Teixeira, Gabriel M. R. Alves, Ana Carolina S. de Andrade, Letícia P. Perez, Bruna Maria P. Bento, Hugo C. de Castro Filho, Igor S. dos Santos, Liliane Cristina L. de Araújo, Maira Matias, Murilo B. da Silva, Fábio da C. Pinheiro, André Carvalho, Haron Xaud, Maristela Xaud, Ana Paula Matos, Luis Baumann, Elaine B. da Silva, Laerte Guimarães Ferreira, Marcos Adami
The Brazilian Amazon Satellite Monitoring Program (PRODES Amazonia) tracks forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon but excludes about 6.6% ( ~ 280,000 km²) of non-forest vegetation (NF). Here we developed the PRODES NF system to address this gap by adapting the well-established methodology of PRODES Amazonia. Initial findings from PRODES NF show that the Brazilian Amazon lost 10.46% ( ~ 30,000 km²) of NF area, mainly in the last two decades, with the estates of Mato Grosso, Roraima, and Amapá being primary hotspots of losses. Savannas were the most affected (13.3% of their extent). NF loss strongly correlates (r = 0.87; p < 0.0001) with deforestation, suggesting a continuum of vegetation loss in the biome regardless of the predominant vegetation type. Combining data from PRODES Amazonia and PRODES NF reveals an official estimate of ~798,000 km² in total primary vegetation loss ( ~ 19% of the entire biome) in the Brazilian Amazon by 2022. Most non-forest vegetation losses in the Brazilian Amazon happened during the last two decades in the states of Mato Grosso, Roraima and Amapá, according to a monitoring system which accounts for losses in these often neglected non-forest biomes
{"title":"Unaccounted for nonforest vegetation loss in the Brazilian Amazon","authors":"Cassiano Gustavo Messias, Cláudio A. de Almeida, Daniel E. Silva, Luciana S. Soler, Luis E. Maurano, Vagner L. Camilotti, Fábio C. Alves, Libério J. da Silva, Mariane S. Reis, Thiago C. de Lima, Vivian Renó, Deborah L. C. Lima, Amanda P. Belluzzo, Camila B. Quadros, Delmina C. M. Barradas, Douglas R. V. de Moraes, Eduardo F. M. Bastos, Igor P. Cunha, Jefferson J. de Souza, Lucélia S. de Barros, Luiz Henrique A. Gusmão, Rodrigo de Almeida, Dayane R. V. de Moraes, Diego M. Silva, Eduardo H. S. Chrispim, João Felipe S. K. C. Pinto, Manoel R. Ribeiro Neto, Marlon Henrique H. Matos, Noeli Aline P. Moreira, Raíssa C. dos S. Teixeira, Gabriel M. R. Alves, Ana Carolina S. de Andrade, Letícia P. Perez, Bruna Maria P. Bento, Hugo C. de Castro Filho, Igor S. dos Santos, Liliane Cristina L. de Araújo, Maira Matias, Murilo B. da Silva, Fábio da C. Pinheiro, André Carvalho, Haron Xaud, Maristela Xaud, Ana Paula Matos, Luis Baumann, Elaine B. da Silva, Laerte Guimarães Ferreira, Marcos Adami","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01542-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01542-0","url":null,"abstract":"The Brazilian Amazon Satellite Monitoring Program (PRODES Amazonia) tracks forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon but excludes about 6.6% ( ~ 280,000 km²) of non-forest vegetation (NF). Here we developed the PRODES NF system to address this gap by adapting the well-established methodology of PRODES Amazonia. Initial findings from PRODES NF show that the Brazilian Amazon lost 10.46% ( ~ 30,000 km²) of NF area, mainly in the last two decades, with the estates of Mato Grosso, Roraima, and Amapá being primary hotspots of losses. Savannas were the most affected (13.3% of their extent). NF loss strongly correlates (r = 0.87; p < 0.0001) with deforestation, suggesting a continuum of vegetation loss in the biome regardless of the predominant vegetation type. Combining data from PRODES Amazonia and PRODES NF reveals an official estimate of ~798,000 km² in total primary vegetation loss ( ~ 19% of the entire biome) in the Brazilian Amazon by 2022. Most non-forest vegetation losses in the Brazilian Amazon happened during the last two decades in the states of Mato Grosso, Roraima and Amapá, according to a monitoring system which accounts for losses in these often neglected non-forest biomes","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01542-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-21DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01594-2
Shiheng Duan, Giuliana Pallotta, Céline Bonfils
Climate internal variability plays a crucial role in the hydroclimate system, and this study quantifies its predictability on streamflow in California using historical observations, climate simulations, and various machine learning (ML) models. Here we demonstrate that while 5% of the year-to-year variability in seasonal peak streamflow can be attributed to the well-known climate variability indices, the explained variance surpasses 30% when higher-order empirical orthogonal functions of these indices are retained in the analysis. Notably, the results highlight the significant influence of the 5th empirical mode of the Pacific North American pattern and of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in shaping the streamflow variability, which is consistent across all the tested ML models. A deeper investigation reveals a clear and monotonic quasi-linear response of streamflow to these dominant patterns, emphasizing the substantial role played by higher-order internal modes of variability in shaping regional hydroclimate systems, which contributes to bridging the gap between the well-known variability domains and local climate systems. Machine learning techniques informed by CMIP6 models and historical observations suggest that higher order internal climate variability had a significant influence on streamflow, and therefore water resources, in California between 1981 and 2015.
{"title":"Higher-order internal modes of variability imprinted in year-to-year California streamflow changes","authors":"Shiheng Duan, Giuliana Pallotta, Céline Bonfils","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01594-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01594-2","url":null,"abstract":"Climate internal variability plays a crucial role in the hydroclimate system, and this study quantifies its predictability on streamflow in California using historical observations, climate simulations, and various machine learning (ML) models. Here we demonstrate that while 5% of the year-to-year variability in seasonal peak streamflow can be attributed to the well-known climate variability indices, the explained variance surpasses 30% when higher-order empirical orthogonal functions of these indices are retained in the analysis. Notably, the results highlight the significant influence of the 5th empirical mode of the Pacific North American pattern and of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in shaping the streamflow variability, which is consistent across all the tested ML models. A deeper investigation reveals a clear and monotonic quasi-linear response of streamflow to these dominant patterns, emphasizing the substantial role played by higher-order internal modes of variability in shaping regional hydroclimate systems, which contributes to bridging the gap between the well-known variability domains and local climate systems. Machine learning techniques informed by CMIP6 models and historical observations suggest that higher order internal climate variability had a significant influence on streamflow, and therefore water resources, in California between 1981 and 2015.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01594-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Barrier islands cover a large fraction of US coasts and support unique ecosystems and coastal infrastructure. The ‘barrier’ function of a barrier island depends on coastal dunes that can prevent storm flooding and widespread ecosystem loss. Furthermore, dune-less barriers are more susceptible to breaching and potential drowning under sea level rise. Here we study the transition from richly-vegetated barriers with mature dunes (‘high’ state) to dune-less barren barriers (‘barren’ state) using data from a representative set of barrier islands in Virginia, US. We find that these two states are possible stable solutions of a non-linear stochastic dynamics characterized by a tipping point at which barriers with elevation around beach berms experience a critical transition into a permanently barren state. Our results suggest that frequently-flooded dune-less barren islands are a natural endpoint of barrier’s evolution under sea level rise. "Barrier islands experience a critical morphodynamic transition from a high dune-rich state to a low dune-less state after reaching lower elevations, according to dune dynamics modeling based on field data from the Virginia Barrier Islands, USA”.
{"title":"Permanent loss of barrier island resilience due to a critical transition in dune ecosystems","authors":"Kiran Adhithya Ramakrishnan, Tobia Rinaldo, Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe, Orencio Durán Vinent","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01611-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01611-4","url":null,"abstract":"Barrier islands cover a large fraction of US coasts and support unique ecosystems and coastal infrastructure. The ‘barrier’ function of a barrier island depends on coastal dunes that can prevent storm flooding and widespread ecosystem loss. Furthermore, dune-less barriers are more susceptible to breaching and potential drowning under sea level rise. Here we study the transition from richly-vegetated barriers with mature dunes (‘high’ state) to dune-less barren barriers (‘barren’ state) using data from a representative set of barrier islands in Virginia, US. We find that these two states are possible stable solutions of a non-linear stochastic dynamics characterized by a tipping point at which barriers with elevation around beach berms experience a critical transition into a permanently barren state. Our results suggest that frequently-flooded dune-less barren islands are a natural endpoint of barrier’s evolution under sea level rise. \"Barrier islands experience a critical morphodynamic transition from a high dune-rich state to a low dune-less state after reaching lower elevations, according to dune dynamics modeling based on field data from the Virginia Barrier Islands, USA”.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01611-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-20DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01598-y
Obituaries of scientists are much more often about men than women. At Communications Earth & Environment, we are initiating a series of articles highlighting the lives and work of women scientists, aiming to inspire the next generation with their stories and career paths.
{"title":"A final story that celebrates a woman’s ideas and achievements","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01598-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01598-y","url":null,"abstract":"Obituaries of scientists are much more often about men than women. At Communications Earth & Environment, we are initiating a series of articles highlighting the lives and work of women scientists, aiming to inspire the next generation with their stories and career paths.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01598-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-20DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01599-x
Gillian L. Galford, Alison Rose, Clare Sullivan
An adventurous ecologist, Cheryl Ann Palm brought together agriculture, forest and social science experts and pioneered interdisciplinary approaches to reduce deforestation and enhance food security.
谢丽尔-安-帕尔姆（Cheryl Ann Palm）是一位富有冒险精神的生态学家，她汇集了农业、森林和社会科学方面的专家，开创了减少森林砍伐和加强粮食安全的跨学科方法。
{"title":"Remarkable women: Cheryl Ann Palm 1954–2024","authors":"Gillian L. Galford, Alison Rose, Clare Sullivan","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01599-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01599-x","url":null,"abstract":"An adventurous ecologist, Cheryl Ann Palm brought together agriculture, forest and social science experts and pioneered interdisciplinary approaches to reduce deforestation and enhance food security.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01599-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-20DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01610-5
Ezra Eisbrenner, Léon Chafik, Oskar Åslund, Kristofer Döös, Julia C. Muchowski
Marine extremes are recognized to cause severe ecosystem and socioeconomic impacts. However, in polar regions, such as the Barents Sea, the driving mechanisms of these extremes remain poorly understood and require careful consideration of the observed long-term ocean warming. Here we show that on short time scales of a few days, marine heatwaves and marine cold spells are dynamically driven by a dipole atmospheric circulation pattern between the Nordic Seas and the Barents Sea. Importantly, the dipole’s eastern component determines anomalies in shortwave radiation and latent heat fluxes. On interannual time scales, both changes in ocean heat supply and persistent atmospheric patterns can support severe marine extremes. We apply conventional marine heatwave detection methodology to OISSTv2 data, for the period of 1982–2021, and combine the analysis with ERA5 data to identify drivers. The ocean-atmosphere interplay across scales provides valuable information that can be integrated into fisheries and ecosystem management frameworks. On timescales of a few days, summer marine heatwaves in the Barents Sea are amplified mainly by an eastern high pressure system, and cold spells by an eastern low pressure system, according to analyses of observed sea surface temperatures over the past four decades.
{"title":"Interplay of atmosphere and ocean amplifies summer marine extremes in the Barents Sea at different timescales","authors":"Ezra Eisbrenner, Léon Chafik, Oskar Åslund, Kristofer Döös, Julia C. Muchowski","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01610-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01610-5","url":null,"abstract":"Marine extremes are recognized to cause severe ecosystem and socioeconomic impacts. However, in polar regions, such as the Barents Sea, the driving mechanisms of these extremes remain poorly understood and require careful consideration of the observed long-term ocean warming. Here we show that on short time scales of a few days, marine heatwaves and marine cold spells are dynamically driven by a dipole atmospheric circulation pattern between the Nordic Seas and the Barents Sea. Importantly, the dipole’s eastern component determines anomalies in shortwave radiation and latent heat fluxes. On interannual time scales, both changes in ocean heat supply and persistent atmospheric patterns can support severe marine extremes. We apply conventional marine heatwave detection methodology to OISSTv2 data, for the period of 1982–2021, and combine the analysis with ERA5 data to identify drivers. The ocean-atmosphere interplay across scales provides valuable information that can be integrated into fisheries and ecosystem management frameworks. On timescales of a few days, summer marine heatwaves in the Barents Sea are amplified mainly by an eastern high pressure system, and cold spells by an eastern low pressure system, according to analyses of observed sea surface temperatures over the past four decades.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01610-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-19DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01595-1
Alicia Berthiaume
The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 12 contains ambitions to reduce human and ecological harm from chemicals, including those in waste, but current official indicators (measurable parameters used to evaluate sustainable development conditions) do not measure variables relevant to these goals, such as impact to humans or the environment from chemicals. Pollutant Release and Transfer Registers from around the world comprise rich datasets on chemicals in industrial waste that can and should be used to measure progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 12. However, translation of these data to inform evaluation of the subsequent human and ecological impacts is impeded by gaps in assessment models. Here, data from Canada’s Pollutant Release and Transfer Register – the National Pollutant Release Inventory is used in a case study to offer perspectives on future directions to fill these gaps. The use of such Pollution Release and Transfer Registers will substantially advance the ability to quantify progress towards the Sustainable Development Goal 12 aims of sound management of chemicals in waste and, importantly, human health and ecological harm reduction. Pollutant Release and Transfers Registers (PRTRs) can be used as a valuable tool in assessing progress towards reducing human and ecological harm from chemicals.
{"title":"Overcoming challenges measuring SDG 12 progress using national registers to track chemicals in waste","authors":"Alicia Berthiaume","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01595-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01595-1","url":null,"abstract":"The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 12 contains ambitions to reduce human and ecological harm from chemicals, including those in waste, but current official indicators (measurable parameters used to evaluate sustainable development conditions) do not measure variables relevant to these goals, such as impact to humans or the environment from chemicals. Pollutant Release and Transfer Registers from around the world comprise rich datasets on chemicals in industrial waste that can and should be used to measure progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 12. However, translation of these data to inform evaluation of the subsequent human and ecological impacts is impeded by gaps in assessment models. Here, data from Canada’s Pollutant Release and Transfer Register – the National Pollutant Release Inventory is used in a case study to offer perspectives on future directions to fill these gaps. The use of such Pollution Release and Transfer Registers will substantially advance the ability to quantify progress towards the Sustainable Development Goal 12 aims of sound management of chemicals in waste and, importantly, human health and ecological harm reduction. Pollutant Release and Transfers Registers (PRTRs) can be used as a valuable tool in assessing progress towards reducing human and ecological harm from chemicals.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01595-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-17DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01602-5
Weipeng Yue, Feng Chen, Max C. A. Torbenson, Xiaoen Zhao, Yonghong Zheng, Yang Xu, Mao Hu, Shijie Wang, Tiyuan Hou, Heli Zhang, Youping Chen
Historians and paleoclimatologists have long studied the connection between ecoclimatic changes and empire growth, transformation, and decline, but striking cases remain rare. Here, we introduce a tree-ring chronology from southern China to reconstruct changes in April-to-November water balance of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River over the last 464 years. The reconstruction supports a quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal structure of the late Ming megadrought and potential effects on subsequent dynastic transitions. Our results indicate that the late Ming megadrought from 1625 – 1644 CE occurred in both the northern and southern parts of the East Asian monsoon region in China. However, variations in the onset, duration, and magnitude of this event differ between regions. The combination of factors such as Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, weakened solar activity, and large-scale volcanic eruptions may have contributed to the occurrence of the late Ming megadrought. These factors are also identified as key drivers of interannual to decadal fluctuations in drought in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Our reconstruction provides an historical context for the development of adaptive measures to mitigate future drought impacts in the region. The late Ming megadrought across north-to-south China, lasting from 1625-1644 CE, was influenced by Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, weakened solar activity, and volcanic eruptions, according to reconstruction of the Yangtze River''s water balance using tree-ring chronology.
{"title":"Late Ming Dynasty weak monsoon induced a harmonized megadrought across north-to-south China","authors":"Weipeng Yue, Feng Chen, Max C. A. Torbenson, Xiaoen Zhao, Yonghong Zheng, Yang Xu, Mao Hu, Shijie Wang, Tiyuan Hou, Heli Zhang, Youping Chen","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01602-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01602-5","url":null,"abstract":"Historians and paleoclimatologists have long studied the connection between ecoclimatic changes and empire growth, transformation, and decline, but striking cases remain rare. Here, we introduce a tree-ring chronology from southern China to reconstruct changes in April-to-November water balance of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River over the last 464 years. The reconstruction supports a quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal structure of the late Ming megadrought and potential effects on subsequent dynastic transitions. Our results indicate that the late Ming megadrought from 1625 – 1644 CE occurred in both the northern and southern parts of the East Asian monsoon region in China. However, variations in the onset, duration, and magnitude of this event differ between regions. The combination of factors such as Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, weakened solar activity, and large-scale volcanic eruptions may have contributed to the occurrence of the late Ming megadrought. These factors are also identified as key drivers of interannual to decadal fluctuations in drought in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Our reconstruction provides an historical context for the development of adaptive measures to mitigate future drought impacts in the region. The late Ming megadrought across north-to-south China, lasting from 1625-1644 CE, was influenced by Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, weakened solar activity, and volcanic eruptions, according to reconstruction of the Yangtze River''s water balance using tree-ring chronology.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01602-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142002621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-17DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01612-3
Jin Zhao, Zhentao Zhang, Chuang Zhao, Zhijuan Liu, Erjing Guo, Tianyi Zhang, Ji Chen, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, Ke Liu, Matthew Tom Harrison, Yumei Zhang, Xiaolong Feng, Ting Meng, Qing Ye, Shenggen Fan, Xiaoguang Yang
National and global food security depend on both supply and demand, yet the vast majority of studies on the impact of climate change on food security have focused somewhat myopically on the supply side. Here, we assess planetary implications of the changing climate for food supply, concurrently considering implications of shifts in dietary preferences on food security. From 1990 to 2018, climate change detrimentally impacted on the food production of 92% of nations assessed. During this time, demand decreased at a greater rate than food supply in 28% of countries; food security for 35% of the global population was unperturbed by climate change. On the other hand, 2% of the global population did not benefit from positive impacts of climate change on food production, due to dietary changes faster increasing food demand. If consumers shift dietary preferences en masse towards healthier diets, detrimental impacts of the climate crisis on food security may be abated, although en mass and/or abrupt transitions in dietary preferences are unlikely. Dietary changes can potentially alleviate climate change’s impact on global food supply, benefiting up to 42% of the global population and potentially addressing the food security crisis, according to assessment of dietary changes’ impact on food security.
{"title":"Dissecting the vital role of dietary changes in food security assessment under climate change","authors":"Jin Zhao, Zhentao Zhang, Chuang Zhao, Zhijuan Liu, Erjing Guo, Tianyi Zhang, Ji Chen, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, Ke Liu, Matthew Tom Harrison, Yumei Zhang, Xiaolong Feng, Ting Meng, Qing Ye, Shenggen Fan, Xiaoguang Yang","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01612-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01612-3","url":null,"abstract":"National and global food security depend on both supply and demand, yet the vast majority of studies on the impact of climate change on food security have focused somewhat myopically on the supply side. Here, we assess planetary implications of the changing climate for food supply, concurrently considering implications of shifts in dietary preferences on food security. From 1990 to 2018, climate change detrimentally impacted on the food production of 92% of nations assessed. During this time, demand decreased at a greater rate than food supply in 28% of countries; food security for 35% of the global population was unperturbed by climate change. On the other hand, 2% of the global population did not benefit from positive impacts of climate change on food production, due to dietary changes faster increasing food demand. If consumers shift dietary preferences en masse towards healthier diets, detrimental impacts of the climate crisis on food security may be abated, although en mass and/or abrupt transitions in dietary preferences are unlikely. Dietary changes can potentially alleviate climate change’s impact on global food supply, benefiting up to 42% of the global population and potentially addressing the food security crisis, according to assessment of dietary changes’ impact on food security.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01612-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142002627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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