Communications Earth & Environment最新文献

Climate-induced hazards are becoming more frequent and severe, causing escalating economic losses worldwide. Consequently, climate change adaptation is increasingly necessary to protect people, nature and the economy. However, little is known about who is adapting and how much they spend on adaptation measures, especially in the private sector. This article focuses on firms-the backbone of economic development, yet understudied in climate adaptation research. Here we present insights from a unique panel dataset detailing businesses' adaptation investments across 28 European countries (2018-2022), 5 hazard types, and 19 economic sectors. Our descriptive analysis reveals low but increasing adaptation investments across Europe (0.15-0.92% of national gross domestic product, annually increasing by 30.6-37.4%). Moreover, we highlight considerable differences in adaptation intensity across sectors, including low adaptation intensity in manufacturing and retail trade. Additionally, our econometric analysis indicates that public adaptation spending crowds in private investments in adaptation, highlighting opportunities to facilitate autonomous adaptation.

Questions about when early members of the genus Homo adapted to extreme environments like deserts and rainforests have traditionally focused on Homo sapiens. Here, we present multidisciplinary evidence from Engaji Nanyori in Tanzania's Oldupai Gorge, revealing that Homo erectus thrived in hyperarid landscapes one million years ago. Using biogeochemical analyses, precise chronometric dating, palaeoclimate simulations, biome modeling, fire history reconstructions, palaeobotanical studies, faunal assemblages, and archeological evidence, we reconstruct an environment dominated by semidesert shrubland. Despite these challenges, Homo erectus repeatedly occupied fluvial landscapes, leveraging water sources and ecological focal points to mitigate risk. These findings suggest archaic humans possessed an ecological flexibility previously attributed only to later hominins. This adaptability likely facilitated the expansion of Homo erectus into the arid regions of Africa and Eurasia, redefining their role as ecological generalists thriving in some of the most challenging landscapes of the Middle Pleistocene.

The European North-West shelf seas experienced a marine heatwave of unprecedented magnitude in June 2023. Quantifying the likelihood of reoccurrence of similar events is vital for mitigating impacts on marine ecosystems and human activities. Assessing the probability of such events is complicated by climate change-driven changes in the baseline conditions and the short length of the observational record with respect to modes of climate variability. Here, by employing a large ensemble of initialised climate model simulations, we show that the probability of June 2023-like events occurring is approximately 10% in any given year of the present-day climate. Moreover, there has been accelerating growth in the risk of occurrence over the last 30 years. The unprecedented nature of the record-breaking June 2023 event placed European marine heatwaves firmly in the public consciousness. However, the climate change trajectory means that whilst this event was unprecedented, such events should not be unexpected.

Extreme flooding and prolonged, intensifying droughts have played a critical role in the rise and collapse of preindustrial states and empires worldwide, triggering cascading impacts such as crop failure, famine, and migration that undermined socio-political stability and economic resilience. We present a multicomponent hydroclimatic vulnerability model for crop supply networks to estimate the contribution of climatic stressors as one of several factors contributing to the decline of the late Tang Dynasty in northern China between 800 and 907 CE. We demonstrate that recurrent flooding and prolonged droughts, combined with an unsustainable shift in crop production from drought-tolerant millet to less resilient wheat and rice, led to harvest failures and food shortages during the cooler and drier climatic conditions of the late 9th and early 10th centuries CE. Intensifying raiding from competing polities and climatic extremes further affected grain supplies for the late Tang's northern military frontier and partly contributed to the sudden decline of the dynasty. Our results emphasize the importance of multicomponent environmental response models to understand historical transformations and provide new aspects of China's socio-political development during medieval times.

February 2022 was an unusually stormy month over Northern Europe, including three extratropical cyclones impacting the United Kingdom and Ireland within a single week. The month also experienced an exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex; however, the role of this in preconditioning the risk of extratropical cyclone hazards has not been explored. Here we use constrained subseasonal forecasts to isolate the effect of the strong stratospheric polar vortex on the North Atlantic storm track in February 2022. We estimate the strong polar vortex led to a 1.5-3-fold increase in the likelihood of a cyclone with comparable intensity to the most intense storm that impacted the United Kingdom. We also show an increased likelihood of 3 or more storms reaching the United Kingdom in a single week by ~80% compared to if the polar vortex had been of average intensity. Using a storm severity index, we estimate a 3-4-fold increase in wind gust hazards over Scandinavia and Scotland and increases in monthly precipitation over Scotland, northern England and Ireland, and Scandinavia. The results show that the strengthened stratospheric polar vortex enhanced the risk of extreme North Atlantic extratropical cyclones, serial cyclone clustering, and their associated impacts over northern Europe in February 2022.

Seasonal climate forecasting is important for societal welfare, as it supports decision-makers in taking proactive steps to mitigate risks from adverse climate conditions or to take advantage of favorable ones. Here, we introduce TelNet, a sequence-to-sequence machine learning model for short-to-medium lead seasonal precipitation forecasting. The model takes past seasonal precipitation values and climate indices to predict an empirical precipitation distribution for every grid point of the target region for the next six overlapping seasons. TelNet has a simple encoder-decoder-head architecture, allowing the model to be trained with a limited amount of data, as is often the case in climate forecasting. Its deterministic and probabilistic performance is thoroughly evaluated and compared with state-of-the-art dynamical and deep learning models in a prominent region for seasonal forecasting studies due to its high climate predictability. The training, validation, and test sets are resampled multiple times to estimate the uncertainty associated with a small dataset. The results show that TelNet ranks among the most accurate and calibrated models across multiple initialization months and lead times, especially during the rainy season when the predictable signal is strongest. Moreover, the model allows instance- and lead-wise forecast interpretation through its variable selection weights.

The lack of available thermochronological methods has so far hampered reconstructions of the cooling and exhumation histories in carbonate rock regions. Here we develop a new trapped charge thermochronometry tool based on the thermoluminescence signal of dolomite. It has a closure temperature range of 45-75 °C and is applicable to carbonate domains with cooling rates of 2-200 °C per million years. This new thermochronometric technique is tested in the central Apennines, where seismogenic, carbonate-hosted normal faulting controls regional neotectonics. Thermoluminescence dating is applied along the northeastern shoulder of the Late Pliocene-Quaternary L'Aquila Intermontane Basin, at the footwall of the extensional Monte Marine Fault. Dolomite samples from the bedrock have a mean thermoluminescence age of 4.60 ± 0.35 millions of years, whereas dolomite clasts within the fault damage zone have a mean thermoluminescence age of 2.53 ± 0.13 millions of years. These new thermoluminescence ages, corroborated by the existing stratigraphic constraints, (i) provide the first direct, low-temperature exhumation ages of the carbonate bedrocks in the central Apennines; (ii) constrain the activity of the basin boundary faults along the northeastern shoulder of the L'Aquila Intermontane Basin. Our study demonstrates the potential of dolomite luminescence thermochronometry in reconstructing the low-temperature cooling/exhumation history of carbonate bedrocks.

Basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is primarily driven by heat delivery from warm Circumpolar Deep Water. Here we classify near-shelf water masses in an eddy-resolving numerical model of the Southern Ocean to develop a unified view of warm water intrusion onto the Antarctic continental shelf. We identify four regimes on seasonal timescales. In regime 1 (East Antarctica), heat intrusions are driven by easterly winds via Ekman dynamics. In regime 2 (West Antarctica), intrusion is primarily determined by the strength of a shelf-break undercurrent. In regime 3, the warm water cycle on the shelf is in antiphase with dense shelf water production (Adélie Coast). Finally, in regime 4 (Weddell and Ross seas), shelf-ward warm water inflow occurs along the western edge of canyons during periods of dense shelf water outflow. Our results advocate for a reformulation of the traditional annual-mean regime classification of the Antarctic continental shelf.

Human well-being relies on the presence and role of pollinators, as they contribute to the vitality of ecosystems, support the reproduction of wild plants, increase crop yields, and strengthen overall food security. While wild bee populations are dwindling due to climate and environmental change, there has been a notable 45% rise globally in the number of managed honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies over the past five decades. Given their economic significance and their relative ease of tracking, honey bees have the potential to serve as bioindicators of global pollinator health. Consequently, honey bees have emerged as a keystone species requiring protection and conservation efforts. Here, we investigate the intricate relationship between air quality, environmental factors, and honey bee mortality across Canada and the United States. Using statistical and machine learning modeling, our findings underscore the honey bee's role as a bioindicator. We found that air quality is an important predictor of honey bee mortality. The risk of honey bee mortality increased with poor air quality (ozone and Air Quality Health Index) but was substantially reduced in regions with greater vegetation availability (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Therefore, our study offers a beacon of hope: improving management practices by increasing greenery can significantly mitigate the impact of deteriorating air quality on honey bees, providing a vital solution to safeguard our essential pollinators.

The presence and stability of brines on Mars's surface remain a significant mystery in planetary exploration. Previous mechanisms proposed for brine formation include melting of ice-salt mixtures and salt deliquescence. However, melting lacks a recharge mechanism, and deliquescence is impeded by Mars's extreme surface aridity. This study explores an underexplored process: the role of seasonal frost in brine formation. Utilizing meteorological data from the Viking 2 lander-the only mission, with Phoenix, to observe in situ water frost formation-I demonstrate that brines can form over approximately 30 sols at the end of winter as frost sublimates. The stable brines exhibit a water activity upper limit of 0.52, corresponding to the eutectic point of calcium perchlorate, a salt detected in various Martian regions, likely including the Viking 2 landing site. Consequently, I conclude that calcium perchlorate can generate small amounts of liquid brine in contact with frost for brief periods. The seasonal nature of frost suggests these brines recur and may leave long-term imprints. Therefore, frost-covered regions are prime candidates for future habitability and astrobiological exploration.