Pub Date : 2024-11-20DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01863-0
Jennifer Klose, Michael Weber, Denis Scholz
Speleothems provide exceptional age control and are a valuable archive for the identification of warm phases in temperate climates. Here we present a speleothem composite record from Germany, which shows episodic growth during the last glacial period, coinciding with several Greenland Interstadials. Using a combined approach of high-resolution solution and in-situ laser ablation 230Th/U-dating, we were able to precisely constrain the timing and duration of several particularly warm phases during Marine Isotope Stage 3. Climatic conditions favourable for speleothem growth occurred episodically until 32,000 years ago, much longer than reported from existing speleothem records. The inception of speleothem growth lags the onset of Greenland Interstadials and covers approximately 88% of their total duration during early, and approximately 25% during middle and late Marine Isotope Stage 3. This indicates progressive climatic cooling during Marine Isotope Stage 3, with the speleothem growth phases representing persistent Central European warm phases. Precisely dated growth phases of speleothems from Bleßberg Cave, Germany, provide snapshots of particularly warm and stable climate during Marine Isotope Stage 3 in Central Europe using both high-resolution solution and in situ 230Th/U dating.
{"title":"Central European warm phases recorded by episodic speleothem growth during MIS 3","authors":"Jennifer Klose, Michael Weber, Denis Scholz","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01863-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01863-0","url":null,"abstract":"Speleothems provide exceptional age control and are a valuable archive for the identification of warm phases in temperate climates. Here we present a speleothem composite record from Germany, which shows episodic growth during the last glacial period, coinciding with several Greenland Interstadials. Using a combined approach of high-resolution solution and in-situ laser ablation 230Th/U-dating, we were able to precisely constrain the timing and duration of several particularly warm phases during Marine Isotope Stage 3. Climatic conditions favourable for speleothem growth occurred episodically until 32,000 years ago, much longer than reported from existing speleothem records. The inception of speleothem growth lags the onset of Greenland Interstadials and covers approximately 88% of their total duration during early, and approximately 25% during middle and late Marine Isotope Stage 3. This indicates progressive climatic cooling during Marine Isotope Stage 3, with the speleothem growth phases representing persistent Central European warm phases. Precisely dated growth phases of speleothems from Bleßberg Cave, Germany, provide snapshots of particularly warm and stable climate during Marine Isotope Stage 3 in Central Europe using both high-resolution solution and in situ 230Th/U dating.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01863-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142679931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-19DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01894-7
Boen Zhang, Shuo Wang, Louise Slater
Compound drought-heatwaves have garnered widespread attention due to their catastrophic consequences. However, little research has investigated inequalities in exposure to compound drought-heatwaves under climate change. Here, we reveal a significant disparity between low-income and high-income regions in terms of global compound drought-heatwave occurrence using observations and climate models. We find that low-income regions experienced a 377% [351–403%] increase in the frequency of compound drought-heatwaves from 1981 to 2020, which is twice as fast as the increase observed in high-income regions (184% [153–204%]). This inequality is largely attributed to a similar disparity in drought occurrence rather than heatwave occurrence. Climate change attribution suggests that anthropogenic warming has doubled the frequency of compound drought-heatwaves over 31% [14–50%] of low-income regions, compared to only 4.7% [0.9–8.3%] of high-income regions. The frequency of compound drought-heatwaves would not have increased in low-income regions without anthropogenic climate change but would still have risen in high-income regions. From 1981 to 2020, low-income regions experienced a faster increase in the frequency of compound drought-heatwaves events than high-income regions, and the increase is attributed to anthropogenic climate change, according to an analysis that uses climate models, drought index, and population data
{"title":"Anthropogenic climate change doubled the frequency of compound drought and heatwaves in low-income regions","authors":"Boen Zhang, Shuo Wang, Louise Slater","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01894-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01894-7","url":null,"abstract":"Compound drought-heatwaves have garnered widespread attention due to their catastrophic consequences. However, little research has investigated inequalities in exposure to compound drought-heatwaves under climate change. Here, we reveal a significant disparity between low-income and high-income regions in terms of global compound drought-heatwave occurrence using observations and climate models. We find that low-income regions experienced a 377% [351–403%] increase in the frequency of compound drought-heatwaves from 1981 to 2020, which is twice as fast as the increase observed in high-income regions (184% [153–204%]). This inequality is largely attributed to a similar disparity in drought occurrence rather than heatwave occurrence. Climate change attribution suggests that anthropogenic warming has doubled the frequency of compound drought-heatwaves over 31% [14–50%] of low-income regions, compared to only 4.7% [0.9–8.3%] of high-income regions. The frequency of compound drought-heatwaves would not have increased in low-income regions without anthropogenic climate change but would still have risen in high-income regions. From 1981 to 2020, low-income regions experienced a faster increase in the frequency of compound drought-heatwaves events than high-income regions, and the increase is attributed to anthropogenic climate change, according to an analysis that uses climate models, drought index, and population data","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01894-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142679919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-19DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01888-5
Sara Arriolabengoa, Thomas Planès, Philippe Mattei, Daniel Cariolle, Scott Delbecq
Assessing mitigation strategies for aviation is a critical issue for the aviation stakeholders, while the debate continues on the most appropriate CO2-equivalence metrics to address non-CO2 effects. Here, we propose two lightweight climate models that can be parameterised to assess these strategies and move beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate. A first approach relies on the use of the GWP* method, while a second one uses the FaIR climate emulator. These lightweight models, which should be considered as a new family of climate models for aviation that facilitate parametric studies, provide a straightforward and consistent means of evaluating mitigation strategies at the temperature level, although they are still limited for informing policymakers due to the significant uncertainties involved. They bypass the need for CO2-equivalence metrics for comparing strategies. The latter should rather be used for other applications, such as policy mechanisms to encourage the emergence of strategies, as they are not suitable for assessing temperature changes from aviation. The debate on the choice of CO2-equivalence metrics could then focus on methodological and ethical criteria. However, this paper demonstrates that the higher the traffic, the more appropriate it is to choose CO2-equivalence metrics with high values for consistency with temperature estimates. The potential use of lightweight climate models for assessing mitigation strategies for aviation is highlighted, allowing to move beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate for these applications, according to the calibration and validation of two parametrisable methods.
{"title":"Lightweight climate models could be useful for assessing aviation mitigation strategies and moving beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate","authors":"Sara Arriolabengoa, Thomas Planès, Philippe Mattei, Daniel Cariolle, Scott Delbecq","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01888-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01888-5","url":null,"abstract":"Assessing mitigation strategies for aviation is a critical issue for the aviation stakeholders, while the debate continues on the most appropriate CO2-equivalence metrics to address non-CO2 effects. Here, we propose two lightweight climate models that can be parameterised to assess these strategies and move beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate. A first approach relies on the use of the GWP* method, while a second one uses the FaIR climate emulator. These lightweight models, which should be considered as a new family of climate models for aviation that facilitate parametric studies, provide a straightforward and consistent means of evaluating mitigation strategies at the temperature level, although they are still limited for informing policymakers due to the significant uncertainties involved. They bypass the need for CO2-equivalence metrics for comparing strategies. The latter should rather be used for other applications, such as policy mechanisms to encourage the emergence of strategies, as they are not suitable for assessing temperature changes from aviation. The debate on the choice of CO2-equivalence metrics could then focus on methodological and ethical criteria. However, this paper demonstrates that the higher the traffic, the more appropriate it is to choose CO2-equivalence metrics with high values for consistency with temperature estimates. The potential use of lightweight climate models for assessing mitigation strategies for aviation is highlighted, allowing to move beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate for these applications, according to the calibration and validation of two parametrisable methods.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01888-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142679949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-19DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01778-w
M. Lees, R. Knight
In California’s San Joaquin Valley, groundwater overdraft has caused dramatic and continued land subsidence during two main periods, 1925–1970 (“the historic period”) and post-2006. The impacts of the subsidence are severe, with modified flood risks, damaged aqueducts, and permanently altered aquifer dynamics. However, we do not have a complete record of the post-2006 subsidence due to a 2011–2015 gap in Valley-wide observations, and this makes it difficult to develop an appropriate management response. Here, we used satellite geodetic subsidence measurements to quantify the Valley-wide subsidence volume during 2006–2022. We found a total subsidence volume of 14 km3 over the 16 years, the same as was measured during 24 years of monitoring in the historic period. Considering the extraordinary 2006–2022 Valley-wide subsidence, we make high-level recommendations for subsidence mitigation, highlighting the importance of focusing groundwater overdraft reductions on the deeper aquifers where subsidence originates, and on localities where subsidence impacts are greatest. A remote-sensing based quantification of land subsidence in the San Joaquin Valley, California, finds that recent land subsidence has matched the totals recorded historically, and suggests limiting groundwater withdrawal from deeper parts of the aquifer system.
{"title":"Quantification of record-breaking subsidence in California’s San Joaquin Valley","authors":"M. Lees, R. Knight","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01778-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01778-w","url":null,"abstract":"In California’s San Joaquin Valley, groundwater overdraft has caused dramatic and continued land subsidence during two main periods, 1925–1970 (“the historic period”) and post-2006. The impacts of the subsidence are severe, with modified flood risks, damaged aqueducts, and permanently altered aquifer dynamics. However, we do not have a complete record of the post-2006 subsidence due to a 2011–2015 gap in Valley-wide observations, and this makes it difficult to develop an appropriate management response. Here, we used satellite geodetic subsidence measurements to quantify the Valley-wide subsidence volume during 2006–2022. We found a total subsidence volume of 14 km3 over the 16 years, the same as was measured during 24 years of monitoring in the historic period. Considering the extraordinary 2006–2022 Valley-wide subsidence, we make high-level recommendations for subsidence mitigation, highlighting the importance of focusing groundwater overdraft reductions on the deeper aquifers where subsidence originates, and on localities where subsidence impacts are greatest. A remote-sensing based quantification of land subsidence in the San Joaquin Valley, California, finds that recent land subsidence has matched the totals recorded historically, and suggests limiting groundwater withdrawal from deeper parts of the aquifer system.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01778-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142679979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-18DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01885-8
Daniel Giles, James Briant, Cyril J. Morcrette, Serge Guillas
Parameterisation schemes within General Circulation Models are required to capture cloud processes and precipitation formation but exhibit long-standing known biases. Here, we develop a hybrid approach that tackles these biases by embedding a Multi-Output Gaussian Process trained to predict high resolution variability within each climate model grid box. The trained multi-output Gaussian Process model is coupled in-situ with a simplified Atmospheric General Circulation Model named SPEEDY. The temperature and specific humidity profiles of SPEEDY are perturbed at fixed intervals according to the variability predicted from the Gaussian Process. Ten-year predictions are generated for both control and machine learning hybrid models. The hybrid model reduces the global precipitation area-weighted root-mean squared error by up to 17% and over the tropics by up to 20%. Hybrid techniques have been known to introduce non-physical states therefore physical quantities are explored to ensure that climatic drift is not observed. Furthermore, to understand the drivers of the precipitation improvements the changes to thermodynamic profiles and the distribution of lifted index values are investigated. Hybrid machine learning techniques can improve the representation of precipitation biases, reducing global error by up to 17% and over the tropics by up to 20%, according to results from a Multi-Output Gaussian Process coupled with a simplified Atmospheric General Circulation Model named SPEEDY.
{"title":"Embedding machine-learnt sub-grid variability improves climate model precipitation patterns","authors":"Daniel Giles, James Briant, Cyril J. Morcrette, Serge Guillas","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01885-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01885-8","url":null,"abstract":"Parameterisation schemes within General Circulation Models are required to capture cloud processes and precipitation formation but exhibit long-standing known biases. Here, we develop a hybrid approach that tackles these biases by embedding a Multi-Output Gaussian Process trained to predict high resolution variability within each climate model grid box. The trained multi-output Gaussian Process model is coupled in-situ with a simplified Atmospheric General Circulation Model named SPEEDY. The temperature and specific humidity profiles of SPEEDY are perturbed at fixed intervals according to the variability predicted from the Gaussian Process. Ten-year predictions are generated for both control and machine learning hybrid models. The hybrid model reduces the global precipitation area-weighted root-mean squared error by up to 17% and over the tropics by up to 20%. Hybrid techniques have been known to introduce non-physical states therefore physical quantities are explored to ensure that climatic drift is not observed. Furthermore, to understand the drivers of the precipitation improvements the changes to thermodynamic profiles and the distribution of lifted index values are investigated. Hybrid machine learning techniques can improve the representation of precipitation biases, reducing global error by up to 17% and over the tropics by up to 20%, according to results from a Multi-Output Gaussian Process coupled with a simplified Atmospheric General Circulation Model named SPEEDY.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01885-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142680005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-18DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01836-3
Yihua Zhong, Sébastien Guillet, Christophe Corona, Adrien Favillier, Juan Antonio Ballesteros Cánovas, Frédéric Huneau, Jiazhi Qie, Markus Stoffel
Cyclones, whether tropical, extratropical, or of Mediterranean origin, play a crucial role in the Earth’s climate system, affecting environments and populations through strong winds, heavy rainfall, and flooding. While much research has focused on tropical and extratropical cyclones, Mediterranean cyclones have received less attention. These cyclones are generally weaker, smaller, and shorter-lived than their tropical or mid-latitude counterparts. However, recent events, such as Mediterranean cyclone Daniel in 2023, which caused severe flooding and thousands of deaths in Libya, underscore the major threat Mediterranean cyclones pose. In this study, we investigate the role of Mediterranean cyclones in triggering floods in Corsica, a region frequently affected by these storms. By analyzing cyclone tracks, streamflow data, and flood-related damage records from Corsica, we reveal a notable rise in river discharge linked to Mediterranean cyclones and show that they contributed to some of the most destructive floods recorded in Corsica between 1979 and 2020. An analysis of Mediterranean cyclone tracks and streamflow data from Corsica shows their precipitation increased river discharge and triggered destructive floods between 1979 and 2020, emphasizing the need for more studies across the Mediterranean.
{"title":"Mediterranean cyclones are a substantial cause of damaging floods in Corsica","authors":"Yihua Zhong, Sébastien Guillet, Christophe Corona, Adrien Favillier, Juan Antonio Ballesteros Cánovas, Frédéric Huneau, Jiazhi Qie, Markus Stoffel","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01836-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01836-3","url":null,"abstract":"Cyclones, whether tropical, extratropical, or of Mediterranean origin, play a crucial role in the Earth’s climate system, affecting environments and populations through strong winds, heavy rainfall, and flooding. While much research has focused on tropical and extratropical cyclones, Mediterranean cyclones have received less attention. These cyclones are generally weaker, smaller, and shorter-lived than their tropical or mid-latitude counterparts. However, recent events, such as Mediterranean cyclone Daniel in 2023, which caused severe flooding and thousands of deaths in Libya, underscore the major threat Mediterranean cyclones pose. In this study, we investigate the role of Mediterranean cyclones in triggering floods in Corsica, a region frequently affected by these storms. By analyzing cyclone tracks, streamflow data, and flood-related damage records from Corsica, we reveal a notable rise in river discharge linked to Mediterranean cyclones and show that they contributed to some of the most destructive floods recorded in Corsica between 1979 and 2020. An analysis of Mediterranean cyclone tracks and streamflow data from Corsica shows their precipitation increased river discharge and triggered destructive floods between 1979 and 2020, emphasizing the need for more studies across the Mediterranean.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01836-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142679935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-18DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01869-8
Douglas I. Kelley, France Gerard, Ning Dong, Chantelle Burton, Arthur Argles, Guangqi Li, Rhys Whitley, Toby R. Marthews, Eddy Roberston, Graham P. Weedon, Gitta Lasslop, Richard J. Ellis, Ioannis Bistinas, Elmar Veenendaal
Explaining tropical tree cover distribution in areas of intermediate rainfall is challenging, with fire’s role in limiting tree cover particularly controversial. We use a novel Bayesian approach to provide observational constraints on the strength of the influence of humans, fire, rainfall seasonality, heat stress, and wind throw on tropical tree cover. Rainfall has the largest relative impact on tree cover (11.6–39.6%), followed by direct human pressures (29.8–36.8%), heat stress (10.5–23.3%) and rainfall seasonality (6.3–22.8%). Fire has a smaller impact (0.2–3.2%) than other stresses, increasing to 0.3–5.2% when excluding human influence. However, we found a potential vulnerability of eastern Amazon and Indonesian forests to fire, with up to 2% forest loss for a 1% increase in burnt area. Our results suggest that vegetation models should focus on fire development for emerging fire regimes in tropical forests and revisit the linkages between rainfall, non-fire disturbances, land use and broad-scale vegetation distributions. Fire has less direct influence on tropical savanna tree cover than previously believed, while heat stress, water availability, wind throw and changes in fire regime are more critical, according to simulations using a Bayesian limitation framework
{"title":"Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover","authors":"Douglas I. Kelley, France Gerard, Ning Dong, Chantelle Burton, Arthur Argles, Guangqi Li, Rhys Whitley, Toby R. Marthews, Eddy Roberston, Graham P. Weedon, Gitta Lasslop, Richard J. Ellis, Ioannis Bistinas, Elmar Veenendaal","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01869-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01869-8","url":null,"abstract":"Explaining tropical tree cover distribution in areas of intermediate rainfall is challenging, with fire’s role in limiting tree cover particularly controversial. We use a novel Bayesian approach to provide observational constraints on the strength of the influence of humans, fire, rainfall seasonality, heat stress, and wind throw on tropical tree cover. Rainfall has the largest relative impact on tree cover (11.6–39.6%), followed by direct human pressures (29.8–36.8%), heat stress (10.5–23.3%) and rainfall seasonality (6.3–22.8%). Fire has a smaller impact (0.2–3.2%) than other stresses, increasing to 0.3–5.2% when excluding human influence. However, we found a potential vulnerability of eastern Amazon and Indonesian forests to fire, with up to 2% forest loss for a 1% increase in burnt area. Our results suggest that vegetation models should focus on fire development for emerging fire regimes in tropical forests and revisit the linkages between rainfall, non-fire disturbances, land use and broad-scale vegetation distributions. Fire has less direct influence on tropical savanna tree cover than previously believed, while heat stress, water availability, wind throw and changes in fire regime are more critical, according to simulations using a Bayesian limitation framework","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01869-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142679980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-18DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01738-4
Zhaowei Ding, Hector Angarita, Christian Albert Montesinos Cáceres, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Jesse A. Goldstein, Natasha Batista, Tong Wu, Dave Fisher, Andrea Baudoin Farah, Hua Zheng, Rafael J. P. Schmitt
Water plays a critical role in adapting food and energy systems to climate change in the Andes. However, robust climate solutions that work across sectors have not been explored for these working landscapes. Here we develop a framework consisting of high-fidelity catchment and hydropower models while considering climate and other uncertainties in a robust, bottom-up manner for the upper Huallaga River in Peru. We then explore adaptation strategies across sectors. Our results highlight that irrigation will be critical for maintaining food production under climate change. Yet, an unplanned expansion of irrigation could lead to a near total loss of firm hydropower downstream. Exploring 10,080 possible landuse/management adaptation pathways, we find limited opportunities for win-win solutions under climate change. In the light of such challenges, our results highlight the need for navigating structural trade-offs between upstream land and water users and downstream interests in the Andes in a strategic and equitable manner. In the Andean Amazon basin, irrigation will be vital to maintaining food production and livelihoods of local communities under climate change, but unplanned irrigation expansion could lead to the loss of hydropower, according to an analysis using catchment and hydropower models.
{"title":"Sustainable land and irrigation management to limit loss of hydropower in the Andes-Amazon headwaters","authors":"Zhaowei Ding, Hector Angarita, Christian Albert Montesinos Cáceres, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Jesse A. Goldstein, Natasha Batista, Tong Wu, Dave Fisher, Andrea Baudoin Farah, Hua Zheng, Rafael J. P. Schmitt","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01738-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01738-4","url":null,"abstract":"Water plays a critical role in adapting food and energy systems to climate change in the Andes. However, robust climate solutions that work across sectors have not been explored for these working landscapes. Here we develop a framework consisting of high-fidelity catchment and hydropower models while considering climate and other uncertainties in a robust, bottom-up manner for the upper Huallaga River in Peru. We then explore adaptation strategies across sectors. Our results highlight that irrigation will be critical for maintaining food production under climate change. Yet, an unplanned expansion of irrigation could lead to a near total loss of firm hydropower downstream. Exploring 10,080 possible landuse/management adaptation pathways, we find limited opportunities for win-win solutions under climate change. In the light of such challenges, our results highlight the need for navigating structural trade-offs between upstream land and water users and downstream interests in the Andes in a strategic and equitable manner. In the Andean Amazon basin, irrigation will be vital to maintaining food production and livelihoods of local communities under climate change, but unplanned irrigation expansion could lead to the loss of hydropower, according to an analysis using catchment and hydropower models.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01738-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142679916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-16DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01830-9
Megan K. B. Nolan, Fabio Marchese, Sam J. Purkis, Mustapha Ouhssain, Malika Kheireddine, Tullia I. Terraneo, Giovanni Chimienti, Mattie Rodrigue, Ameer A. Eweida, Burton Jones, Francesca Benzoni
Deep-sea coral frameworks are understudied in the Red Sea, where conditions in the deep are conspicuously warm and saline compared to other basins. Habitat suitability models can be used to predict the distribution pattern of species or assemblages where direct observation is difficult. Here we show how coral frameworks, built by species within the families Caryophylliidae and Dendrophylliidae, are distributed between water depths of 150 m and 700 m in the northern Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba. To extrapolate the known (ground-truthed) positions of these deep frameworks, we use environmental and geomorphometric variables to inform well-performing maximum entropy models. Over 250 km2 of seafloor in our study area are identified as suitable for such frameworks, equivalent to at least 35% of the area of photic-zone coral reefs in the same region. We hence contend that deep-water coral frameworks are an important and underappreciated repository of Red Sea biodiversity. Deep-water coral frameworks may be an important and understudied source of biodiversity in the Red Sea, according to habitat suitability modelling generated using video imagery and in-situ coral sampling.
{"title":"Habitat suitability models reveal extensive distribution of deep warm-water coral frameworks in the Red Sea","authors":"Megan K. B. Nolan, Fabio Marchese, Sam J. Purkis, Mustapha Ouhssain, Malika Kheireddine, Tullia I. Terraneo, Giovanni Chimienti, Mattie Rodrigue, Ameer A. Eweida, Burton Jones, Francesca Benzoni","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01830-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01830-9","url":null,"abstract":"Deep-sea coral frameworks are understudied in the Red Sea, where conditions in the deep are conspicuously warm and saline compared to other basins. Habitat suitability models can be used to predict the distribution pattern of species or assemblages where direct observation is difficult. Here we show how coral frameworks, built by species within the families Caryophylliidae and Dendrophylliidae, are distributed between water depths of 150 m and 700 m in the northern Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba. To extrapolate the known (ground-truthed) positions of these deep frameworks, we use environmental and geomorphometric variables to inform well-performing maximum entropy models. Over 250 km2 of seafloor in our study area are identified as suitable for such frameworks, equivalent to at least 35% of the area of photic-zone coral reefs in the same region. We hence contend that deep-water coral frameworks are an important and underappreciated repository of Red Sea biodiversity. Deep-water coral frameworks may be an important and understudied source of biodiversity in the Red Sea, according to habitat suitability modelling generated using video imagery and in-situ coral sampling.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01830-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142645810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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