Pub Date : 2024-10-29DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01782-0
Ellen Oldenburg, Raphael M. Kronberg, Katja Metfies, Matthias Wietz, Wilken-Jon von Appen, Christina Bienhold, Ovidiu Popa, Oliver Ebenhöh
The Arctic Ocean is undergoing a major transition as a result of global warming, with uncertain consequences for its ecosystems. Our study introduces an integrated analytical approach using co-occurrence networks, convergent cross-mapping, and energy landscape analysis. Applied to four years of amplicon data from Fram Strait, located at the boundary between Arctic and Atlantic waters, our method identifies keystone species in seasonal microbial communities, elucidates causal interactions, and predicts stable configurations across changing environments. We find strong evidence for a “winter reset”, implying that organisms representing the spring bloom are largely determined by prevailing environmental conditions during winter. In addition, our analysis suggests that winter communities may adapt more readily to expected Atlantification than summer communities. These results highlight the utility of innovative time-series analyses in disentangling ecosystem dynamics. This approach provides critical insights into Arctic ecological interactions, dynamics, and resilience and aids in understanding ecosystem responses to environmental change. Winter environmental conditions largely determine prevailing organisms of spring blooms in the Fram Strait, according to a combined framework of co-occurrence networks, convergent cross-mapping networks, and energy landscape analysis.
{"title":"Beyond blooms: the winter ecosystem reset determines microeukaryotic community dynamics in the Fram Strait","authors":"Ellen Oldenburg, Raphael M. Kronberg, Katja Metfies, Matthias Wietz, Wilken-Jon von Appen, Christina Bienhold, Ovidiu Popa, Oliver Ebenhöh","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01782-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01782-0","url":null,"abstract":"The Arctic Ocean is undergoing a major transition as a result of global warming, with uncertain consequences for its ecosystems. Our study introduces an integrated analytical approach using co-occurrence networks, convergent cross-mapping, and energy landscape analysis. Applied to four years of amplicon data from Fram Strait, located at the boundary between Arctic and Atlantic waters, our method identifies keystone species in seasonal microbial communities, elucidates causal interactions, and predicts stable configurations across changing environments. We find strong evidence for a “winter reset”, implying that organisms representing the spring bloom are largely determined by prevailing environmental conditions during winter. In addition, our analysis suggests that winter communities may adapt more readily to expected Atlantification than summer communities. These results highlight the utility of innovative time-series analyses in disentangling ecosystem dynamics. This approach provides critical insights into Arctic ecological interactions, dynamics, and resilience and aids in understanding ecosystem responses to environmental change. Winter environmental conditions largely determine prevailing organisms of spring blooms in the Fram Strait, according to a combined framework of co-occurrence networks, convergent cross-mapping networks, and energy landscape analysis.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01782-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-29DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01804-x
Davide Zanchettin, Angelo Rubino
Observed North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are modulated by a recurrent alternation of anomalously warm and cold interdecadal phases known as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Here we use observations and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations to demonstrate an ongoing acceleration of North Atlantic surface warming, which implies a smaller contribution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability to 21st century North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies than previously thought. Future projections of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability from realistic climate simulations are poorly constrained, yet a relaxation to a neutral phase by the mid-21st century emerges as the most probable evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. In the simulations, the mitigating effects of a less likely upcoming cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability are overwhelmed by fast North Atlantic surface warming, which is robustly projected to persist in upcoming decades independent of emission scenarios. Sustained North Atlantic surface warming is therefore expected to continue in the near future. Warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is accelerating, and projected to be stronger than natural variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, according to an analysis of climate model simulations.
{"title":"Accelerated North Atlantic surface warming reshapes the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability","authors":"Davide Zanchettin, Angelo Rubino","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01804-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01804-x","url":null,"abstract":"Observed North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are modulated by a recurrent alternation of anomalously warm and cold interdecadal phases known as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Here we use observations and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations to demonstrate an ongoing acceleration of North Atlantic surface warming, which implies a smaller contribution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability to 21st century North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies than previously thought. Future projections of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability from realistic climate simulations are poorly constrained, yet a relaxation to a neutral phase by the mid-21st century emerges as the most probable evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. In the simulations, the mitigating effects of a less likely upcoming cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability are overwhelmed by fast North Atlantic surface warming, which is robustly projected to persist in upcoming decades independent of emission scenarios. Sustained North Atlantic surface warming is therefore expected to continue in the near future. Warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is accelerating, and projected to be stronger than natural variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, according to an analysis of climate model simulations.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01804-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Peatlands are globally important carbon sinks but are frequently drained. Drainage activities reduce overall methane emissions; however they are often accompanied by the construction of ditches, which are potential methane emission hotspots. Yet, the offsets of methane emissions from creating ditches in peatlands under different climate zones and land-use types remain unclear. Here we conducted a global meta-analysis by compiling annual methane emissions from paired near-pristine peatlands and terrestrial portion of drained peatlands and ditches to address this issue. Results showed that ditches occupy approximately 3.8 (95% confidence interval: 3.1~4.4)% of all drained peatlands. Ditches emit 695 (511~898) kg ha−1 yr−1 methane overall, with the highest emissions observed in (sub)tropics. Globally, ditch emissions offset approximately 12 (10~14)% for reductions in methane emissions from peatland drainage. Our findings demonstrate the importance of including ditch methane emissions to quantify emission factors for regional to global peatlands affected by drainage. Peatland ditches are methane emissions hotspots that offset around 12% of the emissions reductions that result from drainage, according to a global meta-analysis of peatland studies.
{"title":"Ditch emissions partially offset global reductions in methane emissions from peatland drainage","authors":"Dezhao Gan, Zelong Zhang, Huinan Li, Dongsheng Yu, Zheng Li, Ruijun Long, Shuli Niu, Hongchao Zuo, Xianhong Meng, Jinsong Wang, Lei Ma","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01818-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01818-5","url":null,"abstract":"Peatlands are globally important carbon sinks but are frequently drained. Drainage activities reduce overall methane emissions; however they are often accompanied by the construction of ditches, which are potential methane emission hotspots. Yet, the offsets of methane emissions from creating ditches in peatlands under different climate zones and land-use types remain unclear. Here we conducted a global meta-analysis by compiling annual methane emissions from paired near-pristine peatlands and terrestrial portion of drained peatlands and ditches to address this issue. Results showed that ditches occupy approximately 3.8 (95% confidence interval: 3.1~4.4)% of all drained peatlands. Ditches emit 695 (511~898) kg ha−1 yr−1 methane overall, with the highest emissions observed in (sub)tropics. Globally, ditch emissions offset approximately 12 (10~14)% for reductions in methane emissions from peatland drainage. Our findings demonstrate the importance of including ditch methane emissions to quantify emission factors for regional to global peatlands affected by drainage. Peatland ditches are methane emissions hotspots that offset around 12% of the emissions reductions that result from drainage, according to a global meta-analysis of peatland studies.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01818-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-29DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01800-1
Benjamin K. Sovacool, Darrick Evensen, Chad M. Baum, Livia Fritz, Sean Low
Climate intervention technologies such as carbon dioxide removal and solar geoengineering are becoming more actively considered as solutions to global warming. The demographic aspects of the public serve as a core determinant of social vulnerability and the ability for people to cope with, or fail to cope with, exposure to heat waves, air pollution, or disruptions in access to modern energy services. This study examines public preferences for 10 different climate interventions utilizing an original, large-scale, cross-country set of nationally representative surveys in 30 countries. It focuses intently on the demographic dimensions of gender, youth and age, poverty, and income as well as intersections and interactions between these categories. We find that support for the more engineered forms of carbon removal decreases with age. Gender has little effect overall. Those in poverty and the Global South are nearly universally more supportive of climate interventions of various types. Public support for solar geoengineering and carbon dioxide removal methods decreases with age, and gender has little effect overall, according to an analysis combining the survey of 30 844 participants from 30 countries and a statistical approach.
{"title":"Demographics shape public preferences for carbon dioxide removal and solar geoengineering interventions across 30 countries","authors":"Benjamin K. Sovacool, Darrick Evensen, Chad M. Baum, Livia Fritz, Sean Low","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01800-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01800-1","url":null,"abstract":"Climate intervention technologies such as carbon dioxide removal and solar geoengineering are becoming more actively considered as solutions to global warming. The demographic aspects of the public serve as a core determinant of social vulnerability and the ability for people to cope with, or fail to cope with, exposure to heat waves, air pollution, or disruptions in access to modern energy services. This study examines public preferences for 10 different climate interventions utilizing an original, large-scale, cross-country set of nationally representative surveys in 30 countries. It focuses intently on the demographic dimensions of gender, youth and age, poverty, and income as well as intersections and interactions between these categories. We find that support for the more engineered forms of carbon removal decreases with age. Gender has little effect overall. Those in poverty and the Global South are nearly universally more supportive of climate interventions of various types. Public support for solar geoengineering and carbon dioxide removal methods decreases with age, and gender has little effect overall, according to an analysis combining the survey of 30 844 participants from 30 countries and a statistical approach.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-17"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01800-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-29DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01810-z
Maximilian Barczok, Chelsea Smith, Lauren Kinsman-Costello, Monique Patzner, Casey Bryce, Andreas Kappler, David Singer, Elizabeth Herndon
Phosphorus limits primary productivity in many (Sub-)Arctic ecosystems and may constrain biological carbon sequestration. Iron (III) oxides strongly bind phosphate in soils but can dissolve under flooded, reducing conditions induced by permafrost thaw and ground collapse. The ability for iron to regulate phosphate storage and solubility in thawing permafrost landscapes remains unclear. Here, iron-rich sediments containing iron oxides and organic-bound iron were incubated with or without added phosphate in soils along a permafrost thaw gradient to evaluate how iron-phosphate associations respond to thaw-induced redox shifts. Iron oxides partially dissolved and released sorbed phosphate when incubated in soils underlain by degraded permafrost. Iron complexed by organic matter remained stable but provided no phosphate binding capacity. Phosphate addition enhanced iron oxide dissolution and phosphorus concentrations in associated microbial biomass. Our study demonstrates that the capacity for iron oxides to immobilize and retain phosphate in permafrost peatlands decreases with permafrost thaw. Thawing of permafrost in peatlands decreases the immobilization and retention of phosphate with Fe oxides and releases initially sorbed phosphate, according to incubation experiments with Fe-rich sediments in soil along a permafrost thaw gradient.
{"title":"Iron transformation mediates phosphate retention across a permafrost thaw gradient","authors":"Maximilian Barczok, Chelsea Smith, Lauren Kinsman-Costello, Monique Patzner, Casey Bryce, Andreas Kappler, David Singer, Elizabeth Herndon","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01810-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01810-z","url":null,"abstract":"Phosphorus limits primary productivity in many (Sub-)Arctic ecosystems and may constrain biological carbon sequestration. Iron (III) oxides strongly bind phosphate in soils but can dissolve under flooded, reducing conditions induced by permafrost thaw and ground collapse. The ability for iron to regulate phosphate storage and solubility in thawing permafrost landscapes remains unclear. Here, iron-rich sediments containing iron oxides and organic-bound iron were incubated with or without added phosphate in soils along a permafrost thaw gradient to evaluate how iron-phosphate associations respond to thaw-induced redox shifts. Iron oxides partially dissolved and released sorbed phosphate when incubated in soils underlain by degraded permafrost. Iron complexed by organic matter remained stable but provided no phosphate binding capacity. Phosphate addition enhanced iron oxide dissolution and phosphorus concentrations in associated microbial biomass. Our study demonstrates that the capacity for iron oxides to immobilize and retain phosphate in permafrost peatlands decreases with permafrost thaw. Thawing of permafrost in peatlands decreases the immobilization and retention of phosphate with Fe oxides and releases initially sorbed phosphate, according to incubation experiments with Fe-rich sediments in soil along a permafrost thaw gradient.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01810-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Glaciers are experiencing unprecedented global warming, resulting in significant changes to microbial communities and nutrient transport within glacial ecosystems. However, the influence of supraglacial and subglacial ecosystems on the proglacial ecosystem remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated microbial communities across seven habitats in three glacial ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau using 16S rRNA sequencing. Our results revealed that the proglacial ecosystem exhibited higher alpha diversity but lower network stability than other ecosystems. Moreover, supraglacial and subglacial ecosystems contributed differently to the community diversity and stability of the proglacial ecosystem. Supraglacial ecosystems provided more high-abundance species and had a greater impact on the proglacial ecosystem’s stability, while subglacial ecosystems released a broader range of diverse taxa. These findings highlight the distinct influences of supraglacial and subglacial ecosystems on microbial community dynamics in proglacial environments, offering insights into their interactions and potential impacts on downstream environments as glaciers retreat. Proglacial ecosystem community structure is driven both by high-abundance supraglacial ecosystems and high-diversity subglacial ecosystems, according to in-situ data from the Tibetan Plateau
{"title":"Supraglacial and subglacial ecosystems contribute differently towards proglacial ecosystem communities in Kuoqionggangri Glacier, Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Zhihao Zhang, Yongqin Liu, Keshao Liu, Yuying Chen, Xuezi Guo, Mukan Ji, Weishu Zhao","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01809-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01809-6","url":null,"abstract":"Glaciers are experiencing unprecedented global warming, resulting in significant changes to microbial communities and nutrient transport within glacial ecosystems. However, the influence of supraglacial and subglacial ecosystems on the proglacial ecosystem remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated microbial communities across seven habitats in three glacial ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau using 16S rRNA sequencing. Our results revealed that the proglacial ecosystem exhibited higher alpha diversity but lower network stability than other ecosystems. Moreover, supraglacial and subglacial ecosystems contributed differently to the community diversity and stability of the proglacial ecosystem. Supraglacial ecosystems provided more high-abundance species and had a greater impact on the proglacial ecosystem’s stability, while subglacial ecosystems released a broader range of diverse taxa. These findings highlight the distinct influences of supraglacial and subglacial ecosystems on microbial community dynamics in proglacial environments, offering insights into their interactions and potential impacts on downstream environments as glaciers retreat. Proglacial ecosystem community structure is driven both by high-abundance supraglacial ecosystems and high-diversity subglacial ecosystems, according to in-situ data from the Tibetan Plateau","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01809-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-29DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01820-x
Rui Xu, Zhiyong Xiao, Yichen Wang, Fanglu Luo, Yizhen Ma
The minimum velocity (v) for impact ejecta to form secondary craters (secondaries) remains enigmatic, but it is a crucial parameter in untangling the fate of impact ejecta on planetary surfaces. By cataloging the distances (L) of the nearest secondaries from centers of various-sized (D) primary craters (primaries) on the Moon, Mars and Mercury, we find that v can be as small as ~25 m/s, and an unified power-law relationship of L = 1.86D0.93 (both in meters) works for both simple and complex craters, regardless of different surface gravity and target properties. This relationship also successfully predicts occurrences of secondaries formed by craters on Venus. The constraint on v explains the common concurrences of structural disturbances in crater walls and continuous ejecta deposits caused by landing of cogenetic ejecta, suggesting that ejecta forming self-secondaries do not need near-vertical ejection angles and tertiary craters should be abundant on terrestrial bodies. Mapping of the distances of secondary craters from their primary crater on the Moon, Mars, and Mercury indicates a unified power law relationship, regardless of gravity and target properties and suggests the minimum impact velocity is lower than expected.
撞击喷出物形成次级陨石坑（次级）的最小速度（v）仍然是个谜，但它是解开行星表面撞击喷出物命运的一个关键参数。通过对月球、火星和水星上不同大小（D）的主陨石坑（原陨石坑）中心到最近的次级陨石坑的距离（L）进行编目，我们发现 v 可以小到 ~25 m/s，而统一的幂律关系 L = 1.86D0.93（单位均为米）适用于简单和复杂的陨石坑，与不同的表面重力和目标特性无关。这一关系也成功地预测了金星上陨石坑所形成的次级陨石坑的出现。对 v 的限制解释了陨石坑壁结构扰动和同源喷出物着陆造成的连续喷出物沉积的常见现象，表明形成自次级的喷出物不需要接近垂直的喷射角，三级陨石坑在陆地天体上应该非常多。对月球、火星和水星上次级陨石坑与其初级陨石坑距离的测绘表明，无论重力和目标特性如何，都存在统一的幂律关系，并表明最小撞击速度比预期的要低。
{"title":"Minimum velocity for impact ejecta to form secondaries on terrestrial bodies","authors":"Rui Xu, Zhiyong Xiao, Yichen Wang, Fanglu Luo, Yizhen Ma","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01820-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01820-x","url":null,"abstract":"The minimum velocity (v) for impact ejecta to form secondary craters (secondaries) remains enigmatic, but it is a crucial parameter in untangling the fate of impact ejecta on planetary surfaces. By cataloging the distances (L) of the nearest secondaries from centers of various-sized (D) primary craters (primaries) on the Moon, Mars and Mercury, we find that v can be as small as ~25 m/s, and an unified power-law relationship of L = 1.86D0.93 (both in meters) works for both simple and complex craters, regardless of different surface gravity and target properties. This relationship also successfully predicts occurrences of secondaries formed by craters on Venus. The constraint on v explains the common concurrences of structural disturbances in crater walls and continuous ejecta deposits caused by landing of cogenetic ejecta, suggesting that ejecta forming self-secondaries do not need near-vertical ejection angles and tertiary craters should be abundant on terrestrial bodies. Mapping of the distances of secondary craters from their primary crater on the Moon, Mars, and Mercury indicates a unified power law relationship, regardless of gravity and target properties and suggests the minimum impact velocity is lower than expected.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01820-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-28DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01807-8
Robert Guralnick, Theresa Crimmins, Erin Grady, Lindsay Campbell
Climatic change is dramatically altering phenology but generalities regarding tempo and mode of response remain limited. Here we present a general model framework incorporating spring temperature, velocity of spring warming, and species’ thermal requirements for predicting phenological response to warming. A key prediction of this framework is that species active earlier in the season and located in warmer regions where spring temperature velocity is lowest show strongest sensitivity to climatic change and greatest advancement in response to warming. We test this prediction using plant phenology datasets collected in the 1850s and 2010s. Our results strikingly confirm model predictions, showing that while temperature sensitivity is higher in regions with low temperature velocity, the greatest realized change in phenological onset is northern areas where warming rates have been fastest. Our framework offers enhanced utility for predicting phenological sensitivity and responsiveness in temperate regions and across multiple plant species and potentially other groups. Spring temperature velocity impacts cycles of plant flowering and leaf-out, and realized change is greatest in areas where warming is most rapid, according to a model framework tested against Eastern USA plant phenology data.
{"title":"Phenological response to climatic change depends on spring warming velocity","authors":"Robert Guralnick, Theresa Crimmins, Erin Grady, Lindsay Campbell","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01807-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01807-8","url":null,"abstract":"Climatic change is dramatically altering phenology but generalities regarding tempo and mode of response remain limited. Here we present a general model framework incorporating spring temperature, velocity of spring warming, and species’ thermal requirements for predicting phenological response to warming. A key prediction of this framework is that species active earlier in the season and located in warmer regions where spring temperature velocity is lowest show strongest sensitivity to climatic change and greatest advancement in response to warming. We test this prediction using plant phenology datasets collected in the 1850s and 2010s. Our results strikingly confirm model predictions, showing that while temperature sensitivity is higher in regions with low temperature velocity, the greatest realized change in phenological onset is northern areas where warming rates have been fastest. Our framework offers enhanced utility for predicting phenological sensitivity and responsiveness in temperate regions and across multiple plant species and potentially other groups. Spring temperature velocity impacts cycles of plant flowering and leaf-out, and realized change is greatest in areas where warming is most rapid, according to a model framework tested against Eastern USA plant phenology data.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01807-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-26DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01815-8
Iván Vergara, René Garreaud, Ian Delaney, Álvaro Ayala
Glaciers are thinning and retreating as climate warms, thus eroding less of the Earth’s surface. However, other hydrological factors in glacierized catchments are likely producing a transient increase in sediment delivery, resulting in ‘peak sediment’. Estimating the trajectory of the peak sediment is ecologically and socially important but scientifically challenging because of the delayed and non-linear response of glacier sediment export to climate forcing. This study used time series of suspended sediment concentration starting in the 1960s from 11 Andean rivers at subtropical latitudes to analyse past changes in sediment export and infer its future behaviour. The recent decade has experienced anomalously high sediment concentration in most glacierized catchments, but the 1970s experienced even higher values. Decadal variations in the relationship between sediment concentration and ice melt suggest that the magnitude of the current decade was lower due to reduced glacial sediment rather than other factors. Combining this result with the fact that glacial runoff is decreasing, it is inferred that, for most of the glacierized catchments, the peak sediment generated by the anthropogenic deglaciation started two centuries ago has already passed its maximum. The sediment delivery product of climate-change-driven deglaciation has passed its maximum for most of the subtropical Andes, according to the analysis of suspended sediment concentration from 11 rivers at subtropical latitudes.
{"title":"Deglaciation in the subtropical Andes has led to a peak in sediment delivery","authors":"Iván Vergara, René Garreaud, Ian Delaney, Álvaro Ayala","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01815-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01815-8","url":null,"abstract":"Glaciers are thinning and retreating as climate warms, thus eroding less of the Earth’s surface. However, other hydrological factors in glacierized catchments are likely producing a transient increase in sediment delivery, resulting in ‘peak sediment’. Estimating the trajectory of the peak sediment is ecologically and socially important but scientifically challenging because of the delayed and non-linear response of glacier sediment export to climate forcing. This study used time series of suspended sediment concentration starting in the 1960s from 11 Andean rivers at subtropical latitudes to analyse past changes in sediment export and infer its future behaviour. The recent decade has experienced anomalously high sediment concentration in most glacierized catchments, but the 1970s experienced even higher values. Decadal variations in the relationship between sediment concentration and ice melt suggest that the magnitude of the current decade was lower due to reduced glacial sediment rather than other factors. Combining this result with the fact that glacial runoff is decreasing, it is inferred that, for most of the glacierized catchments, the peak sediment generated by the anthropogenic deglaciation started two centuries ago has already passed its maximum. The sediment delivery product of climate-change-driven deglaciation has passed its maximum for most of the subtropical Andes, according to the analysis of suspended sediment concentration from 11 rivers at subtropical latitudes.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-7"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01815-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-26DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01812-x
Lu Qian, Jian Rao, Rongcai Ren, Chunhua Shi, Siming Liu
The stratosphere-troposphere and the tropics-Arctic couplings were intermittently enhanced in the 2023/24 winter. Here we used ERA5 reanalysis data and found that due to the amplification of planetary wavenumber 1 and 2 pulses, three displacement-type sudden stratospheric warming events occurred in one winter under the background conditions of warming equatorial middle and east Pacific, active equatorial convections, and easterly stratospheric equatorial winds. During the sudden stratospheric warming events, the stratospheric disturbances propagated downward to the surface, followed by continental cold surges. The residual meridional circulation was strengthened across the tropics and Arctic, anomalously more water vapor was transported into the stratosphere in tropics, while ozone content diminished in the lower stratosphere and grew in the upper stratosphere over the tropics. Meanwhile, water vapor and ozone over the Arctic exhibited a dipping pattern from the upper to the lower stratosphere. In early 2024, three sudden stratospheric warming events occurred due to warming equatorial middle and east Pacific, active equatorial convections, and easterly equatorial winds, enhancing stratosphere- troposphere and tropics-Arctic coupling, according to analysis of zonal wind, temperature, and geopotential height from ERA5 reanalysis data.
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