Pub Date : 2024-12-21DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01946-y
Ben Adam, Luke M. Western, Jens Mühle, Haklim Choi, Paul B. Krummel, Simon O’Doherty, Dickon Young, Kieran M. Stanley, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Ray F. Weiss, Ronald G. Prinn, Jooil Kim, Hyeri Park, Sunyoung Park, Matt Rigby
HFC-23 (trifluoromethane) is a potent greenhouse gas released to the atmosphere primarily as a by-product of HCFC-22 (chlorodifluoromethane) synthesis. Since 2020, the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol has required Parties to destroy their HFC-23 emissions to the extent possible. Here, we present updated HFC-23 emissions estimated from atmospheric observations. Globally, emissions fell to 14.0 ± 0.9 Gg yr-1 in 2023 from their maximum in 2019 of 17.3 ± 0.8 Gg yr-1, but remained five times higher than reported in 2021. Atmospheric observation-based emissions for eastern China, the world’s largest HCFC-22 producer, were also found to be substantially higher than 2020-2022 reported emissions. We estimate that potential HFC-23 sources not directly linked to HCFC-22 production explain only a minor, albeit highly uncertain, fraction of this discrepancy. Our findings suggest that HFC-23 emissions have not been destroyed to the extent reported by the Parties since the implementation of the Kigali Amendment. Substantial hydrofluorocarbon-23 emissions persist despite international reduction commitments: Emissions estimates based on inverse modelling of atmospheric measurements and transport exceeded reported values by more than five times in 2021.
{"title":"Emissions of HFC-23 do not reflect commitments made under the Kigali Amendment","authors":"Ben Adam, Luke M. Western, Jens Mühle, Haklim Choi, Paul B. Krummel, Simon O’Doherty, Dickon Young, Kieran M. Stanley, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Peter K. Salameh, Ray F. Weiss, Ronald G. Prinn, Jooil Kim, Hyeri Park, Sunyoung Park, Matt Rigby","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01946-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01946-y","url":null,"abstract":"HFC-23 (trifluoromethane) is a potent greenhouse gas released to the atmosphere primarily as a by-product of HCFC-22 (chlorodifluoromethane) synthesis. Since 2020, the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol has required Parties to destroy their HFC-23 emissions to the extent possible. Here, we present updated HFC-23 emissions estimated from atmospheric observations. Globally, emissions fell to 14.0 ± 0.9 Gg yr-1 in 2023 from their maximum in 2019 of 17.3 ± 0.8 Gg yr-1, but remained five times higher than reported in 2021. Atmospheric observation-based emissions for eastern China, the world’s largest HCFC-22 producer, were also found to be substantially higher than 2020-2022 reported emissions. We estimate that potential HFC-23 sources not directly linked to HCFC-22 production explain only a minor, albeit highly uncertain, fraction of this discrepancy. Our findings suggest that HFC-23 emissions have not been destroyed to the extent reported by the Parties since the implementation of the Kigali Amendment. Substantial hydrofluorocarbon-23 emissions persist despite international reduction commitments: Emissions estimates based on inverse modelling of atmospheric measurements and transport exceeded reported values by more than five times in 2021.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01946-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-21DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01920-8
Kaitlin E. Frasier, Macey A. Kadifa, Alba Solsona Berga, John A. Hildebrand, Sean M. Wiggins, Lance P. Garrison, Héloïse Frouin-Mouy, Adolfo Gracia, Arturo Serrano, Lynne E. W. Hodge, Carrie C. Wall, Matthieu Le Hénaff, Melissa S. Soldevilla
Shortly after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill began in April 2010, a widely spaced passive acoustic monitoring array was deployed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to document the impacts of this unprecedentedly large and deep offshore oil spill on oceanic marine mammals. The array was subsequently maintained for over a decade. Here we document decadal density declines for seven of eight monitored species groups, including sperm whales (up to 31%), beaked whales (up to 83%), and small delphinids (up to 43%). Declines were observed both within and outside of the surface oil footprint. Though not conclusively linked to the oil spill, the broad spatial and temporal scale of these declines observed for disparate marine mammal species is consistent with Deepwater Horizon impacts. These declines have exceeded and outlasted post-spill damage assessment predictions, suggesting that the offshore ecosystem impacts of Deepwater Horizon may have been larger than previously thought. Whale and delphinid numbers in the Gulf of Mexico have declined by up to 83% in the ten years following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, according to analysis of passive acoustic monitoring data.
{"title":"A decade of declines in toothed whale densities following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill","authors":"Kaitlin E. Frasier, Macey A. Kadifa, Alba Solsona Berga, John A. Hildebrand, Sean M. Wiggins, Lance P. Garrison, Héloïse Frouin-Mouy, Adolfo Gracia, Arturo Serrano, Lynne E. W. Hodge, Carrie C. Wall, Matthieu Le Hénaff, Melissa S. Soldevilla","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01920-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01920-8","url":null,"abstract":"Shortly after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill began in April 2010, a widely spaced passive acoustic monitoring array was deployed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to document the impacts of this unprecedentedly large and deep offshore oil spill on oceanic marine mammals. The array was subsequently maintained for over a decade. Here we document decadal density declines for seven of eight monitored species groups, including sperm whales (up to 31%), beaked whales (up to 83%), and small delphinids (up to 43%). Declines were observed both within and outside of the surface oil footprint. Though not conclusively linked to the oil spill, the broad spatial and temporal scale of these declines observed for disparate marine mammal species is consistent with Deepwater Horizon impacts. These declines have exceeded and outlasted post-spill damage assessment predictions, suggesting that the offshore ecosystem impacts of Deepwater Horizon may have been larger than previously thought. Whale and delphinid numbers in the Gulf of Mexico have declined by up to 83% in the ten years following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, according to analysis of passive acoustic monitoring data.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01920-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01924-4
Noah Horesh, Jason C. Quinn
Decarbonizing the United States transportation sector has emerged as a critical objective to combat climate change due to its high greenhouse gas emissions, largely from light-duty vehicles. This study assesses the breakdown of life cycle emissions of various transportation options under average and maximum ridership scenarios and quantifies emissions reductions through mode shifts and technology advancements. Electrified transportation achieves half the greenhouse gas emissions of petroleum-fueled options in 2023, with projections indicating a reduction to one-fifth by 2050. Battery systems contribute up to one-fifth of lifetime emissions of electric vehicles and buses as of 2023, and this share is estimated to increase to half by 2050 as electricity emissions are greatly reduced with the decarbonization of electricity. The study concludes that shifting away from light-duty vehicles can achieve near-term greenhouse gas reductions, but these reductions are minimal in the long term when combined with transportation electrification powered by decarbonized electricity. In the United States, electrification can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from passenger transportation by half now and up to 85 percent by 2050 with a decarbonized grid, according to an analysis that uses life cycle assessment and ridership scenarios.
{"title":"Fuel shifts reduce most of the greenhouse gas emissions from transportation in the United States","authors":"Noah Horesh, Jason C. Quinn","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01924-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01924-4","url":null,"abstract":"Decarbonizing the United States transportation sector has emerged as a critical objective to combat climate change due to its high greenhouse gas emissions, largely from light-duty vehicles. This study assesses the breakdown of life cycle emissions of various transportation options under average and maximum ridership scenarios and quantifies emissions reductions through mode shifts and technology advancements. Electrified transportation achieves half the greenhouse gas emissions of petroleum-fueled options in 2023, with projections indicating a reduction to one-fifth by 2050. Battery systems contribute up to one-fifth of lifetime emissions of electric vehicles and buses as of 2023, and this share is estimated to increase to half by 2050 as electricity emissions are greatly reduced with the decarbonization of electricity. The study concludes that shifting away from light-duty vehicles can achieve near-term greenhouse gas reductions, but these reductions are minimal in the long term when combined with transportation electrification powered by decarbonized electricity. In the United States, electrification can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from passenger transportation by half now and up to 85 percent by 2050 with a decarbonized grid, according to an analysis that uses life cycle assessment and ridership scenarios.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01924-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01915-5
Nan Jia, Zilong Xia, Yinshuai Li, Xiang Yu, Xutong Wu, Yingjie Li, Rongfei Su, Mengting Wang, Ruishan Chen, Jianguo Liu
The transboundary impacts of regional war on global food trade remain underexplored, particularly regarding disruptions to production and trade networks. Here we address this gap by developing a rapid assessment framework that integrates remote sensing, policy monitoring, and network analysis to evaluate the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on global winter cereal production and trade. Using satellite data, we estimated yield reductions for wheat, barley, and oats and analyzed the effects of export-ban policies enacted since February 24, 2022. Our findings indicate that lower- and middle-income countries were disproportionately impacted, as trade networks became fragmented, forming isolated clusters that threatened food accessibility. Geographically distant countries experienced greater disruptions than those near the conflict. This framework provides insights into the cascading effects of conflict on global food systems and offers a predictive tool for policymakers to address food availability challenges during future crises. Lower- and middle-income countries are disproportionately impacted by the reduction of winter cereals yields and fragmentation of the food trade due to the Russia-Ukraine war, according to an analysis that uses satellite cropland data, meteorological and trade data, and network approach.
{"title":"The Russia-Ukraine war reduced food production and exports with a disparate geographical impact worldwide","authors":"Nan Jia, Zilong Xia, Yinshuai Li, Xiang Yu, Xutong Wu, Yingjie Li, Rongfei Su, Mengting Wang, Ruishan Chen, Jianguo Liu","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01915-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01915-5","url":null,"abstract":"The transboundary impacts of regional war on global food trade remain underexplored, particularly regarding disruptions to production and trade networks. Here we address this gap by developing a rapid assessment framework that integrates remote sensing, policy monitoring, and network analysis to evaluate the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on global winter cereal production and trade. Using satellite data, we estimated yield reductions for wheat, barley, and oats and analyzed the effects of export-ban policies enacted since February 24, 2022. Our findings indicate that lower- and middle-income countries were disproportionately impacted, as trade networks became fragmented, forming isolated clusters that threatened food accessibility. Geographically distant countries experienced greater disruptions than those near the conflict. This framework provides insights into the cascading effects of conflict on global food systems and offers a predictive tool for policymakers to address food availability challenges during future crises. Lower- and middle-income countries are disproportionately impacted by the reduction of winter cereals yields and fragmentation of the food trade due to the Russia-Ukraine war, according to an analysis that uses satellite cropland data, meteorological and trade data, and network approach.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-17"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01915-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01949-9
André L. Giles, Juliana Schietti, Milena F. Rosenfield, Rita C. Mesquita, Daniel Luis Mascia Vieira, Ima C. G. Vieira, Lourens Poorter, Pedro H. S. Brancalion, Marielos Peña-Claros, João Siqueira, Luis Oliveira Junior, Mário Marcos do Espírito-Santo, Priscila Sanjuan de Medeiros Sarmento, Joice N. Ferreira, Erika Berenguer, Jos Barlow, Fernando Elias, Henrique Luis Godinho Cassol, Richarlly C. Silva, Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Natália Medeiros, André B. Junqueira, Paulo Massoca, Marciel Jose Ferreira, Markus Gastauer, Leandro V. Ferreira, Danilo Roberti Alves de Almeida, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Catarina C. Jakovac
Natural regeneration of Amazon forests offers a promising strategy to mitigate forest loss and advance the goals of the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. However, the vast variability in regeneration rates across environmental gradients and over time poses considerable challenges for assessing regeneration success and ecosystem services provision in human-modified landscapes. Here we compiled 448 plots from forest regeneration in the Amazon to investigate the drivers of regrowth capacity and identify robust ecological indicators. By modeling optimal successional trajectories, we estimated reference values for vegetation structure, diversity, and functioning. After 20 years, successful regeneration should reach a minimum basal area of 14 m². ha−¹, at least 34 tree species per 100 individuals, a structural heterogeneity index of 0.27, and 123 Mg.ha−¹ of aboveground biomass. These straightforward indicators and reference values provide a foundational framework for governments and practitioners to assess success and establish targets for Amazon restoration efforts. Optimal regeneration success in Amazonian forests is mapped by simple ecological indicators, providing reference values for measuring restoration success across successional stages based on a large compiled dataset on forest regeneration.
{"title":"Simple ecological indicators benchmark regeneration success of Amazonian forests","authors":"André L. Giles, Juliana Schietti, Milena F. Rosenfield, Rita C. Mesquita, Daniel Luis Mascia Vieira, Ima C. G. Vieira, Lourens Poorter, Pedro H. S. Brancalion, Marielos Peña-Claros, João Siqueira, Luis Oliveira Junior, Mário Marcos do Espírito-Santo, Priscila Sanjuan de Medeiros Sarmento, Joice N. Ferreira, Erika Berenguer, Jos Barlow, Fernando Elias, Henrique Luis Godinho Cassol, Richarlly C. Silva, Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Natália Medeiros, André B. Junqueira, Paulo Massoca, Marciel Jose Ferreira, Markus Gastauer, Leandro V. Ferreira, Danilo Roberti Alves de Almeida, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Catarina C. Jakovac","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01949-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01949-9","url":null,"abstract":"Natural regeneration of Amazon forests offers a promising strategy to mitigate forest loss and advance the goals of the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. However, the vast variability in regeneration rates across environmental gradients and over time poses considerable challenges for assessing regeneration success and ecosystem services provision in human-modified landscapes. Here we compiled 448 plots from forest regeneration in the Amazon to investigate the drivers of regrowth capacity and identify robust ecological indicators. By modeling optimal successional trajectories, we estimated reference values for vegetation structure, diversity, and functioning. After 20 years, successful regeneration should reach a minimum basal area of 14 m². ha−¹, at least 34 tree species per 100 individuals, a structural heterogeneity index of 0.27, and 123 Mg.ha−¹ of aboveground biomass. These straightforward indicators and reference values provide a foundational framework for governments and practitioners to assess success and establish targets for Amazon restoration efforts. Optimal regeneration success in Amazonian forests is mapped by simple ecological indicators, providing reference values for measuring restoration success across successional stages based on a large compiled dataset on forest regeneration.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01949-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01942-2
Constanza A. Molina Catricheo, Fabrice Lambert, Julien Salomon, Elwin van ’t Wout
Paleoclimatic measurements serve to understand Earth System processes and evaluate climate model performances. However, their spatial coverage is generally sparse and unevenly distributed across the globe. Statistical interpolation methods are the prevalent techniques to grid such data, but these purely data-driven approaches sometimes produce results that are incoherent with our knowledge of the physical world. Physics-Informed Neural Networks follow an innovative approach to data analysis and physical modeling through machine learning, as they incorporate physical principles into the data-driven learning process. Here, we develop a machine-learning algorithm to reconstruct global maps of atmospheric dust surface deposition fluxes from paleoclimatic archives for the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum periods. We design an advection-diffusion equation that prevents dust particles from flowing upwind. Our physics-informed neural network improves on kriging interpolation by allowing variable asymmetry around data points. The reconstructions display realistic dust plumes from continental sources towards ocean basins following prevailing winds. Physics-Informed Neural Networks trained with natural dust values and paleoclimatic measurements can reconstruct the global dust deposition during the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum, complementing traditional kriging reconstruction methods.
{"title":"Modeling global surface dust deposition using physics-informed neural networks","authors":"Constanza A. Molina Catricheo, Fabrice Lambert, Julien Salomon, Elwin van ’t Wout","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01942-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01942-2","url":null,"abstract":"Paleoclimatic measurements serve to understand Earth System processes and evaluate climate model performances. However, their spatial coverage is generally sparse and unevenly distributed across the globe. Statistical interpolation methods are the prevalent techniques to grid such data, but these purely data-driven approaches sometimes produce results that are incoherent with our knowledge of the physical world. Physics-Informed Neural Networks follow an innovative approach to data analysis and physical modeling through machine learning, as they incorporate physical principles into the data-driven learning process. Here, we develop a machine-learning algorithm to reconstruct global maps of atmospheric dust surface deposition fluxes from paleoclimatic archives for the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum periods. We design an advection-diffusion equation that prevents dust particles from flowing upwind. Our physics-informed neural network improves on kriging interpolation by allowing variable asymmetry around data points. The reconstructions display realistic dust plumes from continental sources towards ocean basins following prevailing winds. Physics-Informed Neural Networks trained with natural dust values and paleoclimatic measurements can reconstruct the global dust deposition during the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum, complementing traditional kriging reconstruction methods.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01942-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01955-x
Michael J. McPhaden, Sreelekha Jarugula, Léo C. Aroucha, Joke F. Lübbecke
Benguela Niños are episodes of unusual El Niño-like warming in the upwelling zone off the coast of southwest Africa, with consequential impacts on marine ecosystems, coastal fisheries and regional weather. The strongest Benguela Niño in the past 40 years occurred in February–April 1995 with local sea surface temperature anomalies up to 4 °C off the coast of Angola and Namibia. Here, we show that a strong Indian Ocean Dipole in September–November 1994 helped boost the amplitude of the 1995 Benguela Niño through a land bridge involving Congo River discharge. We use atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological data to demonstrate the sequential linkage between Indian Ocean Dipole development, unusually high rainfall in the Congo River basin, high Congo River discharge, low salinity near the Congo River mouth, and southward advection of this low salinity water into the Benguela upwelling region. The low salinity water isolated the surface mixed layer from the thermocline, which limited vertical mixing with colder subsurface waters and led to enhanced sea surface temperature warming. We also discuss how other Indian Ocean Dipole events may have similarly affected subsequent Benguela Niños and the possibility that Indian Ocean Dipole impacts on Benguela Niños may become more prominent in the future. The 1995 Benguela Niño, the strongest in the past 40 years, was intensified by high freshwater discharge from the Congo River due to a major Indian Ocean Dipole in late 1994, according to analysis of oceanic, atmospheric and hydrological data.
{"title":"Indian Ocean Dipole intensifies Benguela Niño through Congo River discharge","authors":"Michael J. McPhaden, Sreelekha Jarugula, Léo C. Aroucha, Joke F. Lübbecke","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01955-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01955-x","url":null,"abstract":"Benguela Niños are episodes of unusual El Niño-like warming in the upwelling zone off the coast of southwest Africa, with consequential impacts on marine ecosystems, coastal fisheries and regional weather. The strongest Benguela Niño in the past 40 years occurred in February–April 1995 with local sea surface temperature anomalies up to 4 °C off the coast of Angola and Namibia. Here, we show that a strong Indian Ocean Dipole in September–November 1994 helped boost the amplitude of the 1995 Benguela Niño through a land bridge involving Congo River discharge. We use atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological data to demonstrate the sequential linkage between Indian Ocean Dipole development, unusually high rainfall in the Congo River basin, high Congo River discharge, low salinity near the Congo River mouth, and southward advection of this low salinity water into the Benguela upwelling region. The low salinity water isolated the surface mixed layer from the thermocline, which limited vertical mixing with colder subsurface waters and led to enhanced sea surface temperature warming. We also discuss how other Indian Ocean Dipole events may have similarly affected subsequent Benguela Niños and the possibility that Indian Ocean Dipole impacts on Benguela Niños may become more prominent in the future. The 1995 Benguela Niño, the strongest in the past 40 years, was intensified by high freshwater discharge from the Congo River due to a major Indian Ocean Dipole in late 1994, according to analysis of oceanic, atmospheric and hydrological data.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01955-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-19DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01953-z
Lei Huang, R. Iestyn Woolway, Axel Timmermann, Keith B. Rodgers
The seasonal cycle of vertical mixing is crucial for lake ecosystems, yet its future under climate change remains uncertain. While lake stratification shifts have been widely studied, the annual overturning duration changes are less clear. Using sub-daily simulations from a fully coupled numerical Earth system model, we assess phenological changes in stratification and overturning in Northern Hemisphere ice-covered lakes. We find the total stratification duration (comprising both summer and winter phases) is projected to decrease by 0.7, 4.6, and 6.9 days in 2029, 2067, and 2096, respectively, under global temperature increases of 1.5 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C. Conversely, the duration of overturning is expected to increase by 0.7, 4.2, and 8 days annually. Notably, these changes are asymmetrical, with most of the overturning extension occurring in the fall, following the peak growing season. This extended overturning could affect lake ecosystems, particularly through enhanced ventilation of bottom layers and altered nutrient cycling. Rising global temperatures of 1.5 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C will shorten stratification by 0.7, 4.6, and 6.9 days, and lengthen overturning by 0.7, 4.2, and 8 days annually by 2096 in the Northern Hemisphere, affecting lake ecosystems through altered ventilation and nutrient cycling, according to sub-daily simulations of ice-covered lakes.
{"title":"Projected phenological shifts in stratification and overturning of ice-covered Northern Hemisphere lakes","authors":"Lei Huang, R. Iestyn Woolway, Axel Timmermann, Keith B. Rodgers","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01953-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01953-z","url":null,"abstract":"The seasonal cycle of vertical mixing is crucial for lake ecosystems, yet its future under climate change remains uncertain. While lake stratification shifts have been widely studied, the annual overturning duration changes are less clear. Using sub-daily simulations from a fully coupled numerical Earth system model, we assess phenological changes in stratification and overturning in Northern Hemisphere ice-covered lakes. We find the total stratification duration (comprising both summer and winter phases) is projected to decrease by 0.7, 4.6, and 6.9 days in 2029, 2067, and 2096, respectively, under global temperature increases of 1.5 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C. Conversely, the duration of overturning is expected to increase by 0.7, 4.2, and 8 days annually. Notably, these changes are asymmetrical, with most of the overturning extension occurring in the fall, following the peak growing season. This extended overturning could affect lake ecosystems, particularly through enhanced ventilation of bottom layers and altered nutrient cycling. Rising global temperatures of 1.5 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C will shorten stratification by 0.7, 4.6, and 6.9 days, and lengthen overturning by 0.7, 4.2, and 8 days annually by 2096 in the Northern Hemisphere, affecting lake ecosystems through altered ventilation and nutrient cycling, according to sub-daily simulations of ice-covered lakes.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01953-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-19DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01945-z
Heng Peng, Lin Ding, Chiyang Liu, Massimiliano Zattin, Jianqiang Wang, Licheng Wang
Middle Triassic paleogeography is essential for the paleoclimate change and ecosystem recovery after the end-Permian mass extinction, but is highly debated in the Paleo-Tethys Ocean and North China Craton, eastern Pangaea. Here we report a detailed provenance fingerprinting dataset from Middle Triassic sediments across the North China Craton, Qinling and Songpan-Ganzi and identify the paleo-uplift in the northern North China Craton as a primary sediment source. We propose that a Middle Triassic transcontinental drainage system flowed from the northern North China Craton through the central Qinling into the eastern Paleo-Tethys Ocean along the gradually descending landform, challenging the suggestion that the North China Craton was a great endorheic basin. The finding of this study will provide a better understanding of Middle Triassic physiography and paleogeography of the North China Craton. Such heterogeneous paleotopography and transcontinental drainage played a critical role in the marine-terrestrial ecosystems of the eastern Pangaea. A transcontinental drainage system transported sediments from the North China Craton into the eastern Paleo-Tethys Ocean in the Middle Triassic, as shown by a multi-proxy provenance and paleogeographic study from MiddleTriassic sediments from the North China Craton, Qinling, and Songpan-Ganzi regions.
{"title":"Middle Triassic transcontinental connection between the North China Craton and the Paleo-Tethys Ocean","authors":"Heng Peng, Lin Ding, Chiyang Liu, Massimiliano Zattin, Jianqiang Wang, Licheng Wang","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01945-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01945-z","url":null,"abstract":"Middle Triassic paleogeography is essential for the paleoclimate change and ecosystem recovery after the end-Permian mass extinction, but is highly debated in the Paleo-Tethys Ocean and North China Craton, eastern Pangaea. Here we report a detailed provenance fingerprinting dataset from Middle Triassic sediments across the North China Craton, Qinling and Songpan-Ganzi and identify the paleo-uplift in the northern North China Craton as a primary sediment source. We propose that a Middle Triassic transcontinental drainage system flowed from the northern North China Craton through the central Qinling into the eastern Paleo-Tethys Ocean along the gradually descending landform, challenging the suggestion that the North China Craton was a great endorheic basin. The finding of this study will provide a better understanding of Middle Triassic physiography and paleogeography of the North China Craton. Such heterogeneous paleotopography and transcontinental drainage played a critical role in the marine-terrestrial ecosystems of the eastern Pangaea. A transcontinental drainage system transported sediments from the North China Craton into the eastern Paleo-Tethys Ocean in the Middle Triassic, as shown by a multi-proxy provenance and paleogeographic study from MiddleTriassic sediments from the North China Craton, Qinling, and Songpan-Ganzi regions.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01945-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-19DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01950-2
Alireza Naqinezhad, Oscar Morton, David P. Edwards
Plants are a vast, lucrative portion of global wildlife trade and the most speciose clade listed under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora-CITES. Here we used the CITES Trade Database and >420,000 records between 2000 and 2020 and assessed the diversity and volume of wild-sourced CITES-listed plants across space and time. Between 2000–2020, over 8.4 million cubic metres of timber, 197 million individual live plants, and 4.6 million kilograms of plant products were traded under CITES, comprising 53, 765, and 74 species, respectively. Most species are traded between key exporter and importer nations, especially China, USA, and Europe. Total diversity of timber species and volumes increased over time, whereas live diversity declined, and product diversity and mass fluctuated uncertainly. Most species were not evaluated by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List when first traded, with high volumes of timber and products concentrated among threatened taxa. The high prevalence of poorly understood species necessitates enhanced rigour in ensuring sustainable CITES trade. More than 8.4 million cubic metres of timber, 197 million live plants, and 4.6 million kilograms of plant products listed by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species were traded globally from 2000 to 2020, according to an analysis that uses trade data and a statistical approach.
{"title":"Increasing timber and declining live plant diversity and volumes in global trade from 2000 to 2020","authors":"Alireza Naqinezhad, Oscar Morton, David P. Edwards","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01950-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01950-2","url":null,"abstract":"Plants are a vast, lucrative portion of global wildlife trade and the most speciose clade listed under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora-CITES. Here we used the CITES Trade Database and >420,000 records between 2000 and 2020 and assessed the diversity and volume of wild-sourced CITES-listed plants across space and time. Between 2000–2020, over 8.4 million cubic metres of timber, 197 million individual live plants, and 4.6 million kilograms of plant products were traded under CITES, comprising 53, 765, and 74 species, respectively. Most species are traded between key exporter and importer nations, especially China, USA, and Europe. Total diversity of timber species and volumes increased over time, whereas live diversity declined, and product diversity and mass fluctuated uncertainly. Most species were not evaluated by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List when first traded, with high volumes of timber and products concentrated among threatened taxa. The high prevalence of poorly understood species necessitates enhanced rigour in ensuring sustainable CITES trade. More than 8.4 million cubic metres of timber, 197 million live plants, and 4.6 million kilograms of plant products listed by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species were traded globally from 2000 to 2020, according to an analysis that uses trade data and a statistical approach.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01950-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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