Pub Date : 2024-09-02DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01629-8
Daniele Tardani, Santiago Tassara, Pablo Sanchez-Alfaro, Martin Reich, Pamela Pérez-Flóres, Philippe Robidoux, Claudio Contreras, Daniele L. Pinti, José Cembrano, Jay. J. Ague
Some of the largest magmatic-hydrothermal copper ore deposits and deposit clusters are associated with arc-oblique fault systems. Whether this structural context impacts the geochemistry of hydrothermal fluids, including their copper contents, remains unknown. Here, we investigate the copper concentration and helium isotope signature of geothermal fluids as modern analogs of hydrothermal ore deposits in the Andes of central-southern Chile. We show that fault systems broadly parallel to the regional stress field facilitate the early release of fluids from deep primitive magmas. By contrast, fault systems oblique to the regional stress field prevent the early escape of fluids and promote magmatic enrichment in copper, volatiles, and ligands, enhancing the potential to form copper deposits. We conclude that the orientation of fault systems actively influences the copper budget of ascending hydrothermal fluids, explaining the contrasting distribution of metals along distinct structures often observed in porphyry-epithermal systems and other types of magmatic-hydrothermal deposits. The enrichment of copper in magmatic hydrothermal fluids is influenced by the orientation of fault systems in arcs, according to geochemical analyses of gases and hot spring waters from active fumarole fields in the Southern Volcanic Zone of Chile.
{"title":"The orientation of intra-arc crustal fault systems influences the copper budget of magmatic-hydrothermal fluids","authors":"Daniele Tardani, Santiago Tassara, Pablo Sanchez-Alfaro, Martin Reich, Pamela Pérez-Flóres, Philippe Robidoux, Claudio Contreras, Daniele L. Pinti, José Cembrano, Jay. J. Ague","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01629-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01629-8","url":null,"abstract":"Some of the largest magmatic-hydrothermal copper ore deposits and deposit clusters are associated with arc-oblique fault systems. Whether this structural context impacts the geochemistry of hydrothermal fluids, including their copper contents, remains unknown. Here, we investigate the copper concentration and helium isotope signature of geothermal fluids as modern analogs of hydrothermal ore deposits in the Andes of central-southern Chile. We show that fault systems broadly parallel to the regional stress field facilitate the early release of fluids from deep primitive magmas. By contrast, fault systems oblique to the regional stress field prevent the early escape of fluids and promote magmatic enrichment in copper, volatiles, and ligands, enhancing the potential to form copper deposits. We conclude that the orientation of fault systems actively influences the copper budget of ascending hydrothermal fluids, explaining the contrasting distribution of metals along distinct structures often observed in porphyry-epithermal systems and other types of magmatic-hydrothermal deposits. The enrichment of copper in magmatic hydrothermal fluids is influenced by the orientation of fault systems in arcs, according to geochemical analyses of gases and hot spring waters from active fumarole fields in the Southern Volcanic Zone of Chile.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01629-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142117974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-02DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01643-w
Erick R. Velasco-Reyes, Daisuke Sugawara, Bruno Adriano
Paleotsunami deposits provide a compelling record of these events, including valuable insights into their recurrence and associated magnitudes. However, precisely determining the sources of these sedimentary evidence remains challenging due to the complex interplay between hydrodynamic and geological phenomena and the intricacy of the processes responsible for forming and preserving tsunami deposits. Here, we introduce a novel approach that employs Bayesian inference methods to divide the complex tsunami process into segments and independently handle uncertainties, thereby enabling more precise and comprehensive modelling of the sources. We provide a list of potential earthquake scenarios with different likelihoods instead of a single best fit. Based on this method, we calculated that the source of the 869 Jogan earthquake had a magnitude ranging from Moment Magnitude 8.84 to 9.1 (within one standard deviation) with different slip distributions along the Japan Trench. Our results reaffirm that the Jogan event had a similar order of magnitude to the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami and enhanced the applicability of paleotsunami deposits to hazard assessment. Bayesian inference methods can be used to understand the sources of palaeotsunami deposits by recovering the causal source and accounting for uncertainty at each step of the process.
{"title":"Tracing the sources of paleotsunamis using Bayesian frameworks","authors":"Erick R. Velasco-Reyes, Daisuke Sugawara, Bruno Adriano","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01643-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01643-w","url":null,"abstract":"Paleotsunami deposits provide a compelling record of these events, including valuable insights into their recurrence and associated magnitudes. However, precisely determining the sources of these sedimentary evidence remains challenging due to the complex interplay between hydrodynamic and geological phenomena and the intricacy of the processes responsible for forming and preserving tsunami deposits. Here, we introduce a novel approach that employs Bayesian inference methods to divide the complex tsunami process into segments and independently handle uncertainties, thereby enabling more precise and comprehensive modelling of the sources. We provide a list of potential earthquake scenarios with different likelihoods instead of a single best fit. Based on this method, we calculated that the source of the 869 Jogan earthquake had a magnitude ranging from Moment Magnitude 8.84 to 9.1 (within one standard deviation) with different slip distributions along the Japan Trench. Our results reaffirm that the Jogan event had a similar order of magnitude to the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami and enhanced the applicability of paleotsunami deposits to hazard assessment. Bayesian inference methods can be used to understand the sources of palaeotsunami deposits by recovering the causal source and accounting for uncertainty at each step of the process.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01643-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142117918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-02DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01644-9
Hiroyuki Murakami, William F. Cooke, Ryo Mizuta, Hirokazu Endo, Kohei Yoshida, Shuai Wang, Pang-Chi Hsu
Despite the profound societal impacts of intense tropical cyclones (TCs), prediction of future changes in their regional occurrence remains challenging owing to climate model limitations and to the infrequent occurrence of such TCs. Here we reveal projected changes in the frequency of major TC occurrence (i.e., maximum sustained wind speed: ≥ 50 m s−1) on the regional scale. Two independent high-resolution climate models projected similar changes in major TC occurrence. Their spatial patterns highlight an increase in the Central Pacific and a reduction in occurrence in the Southern Hemisphere—likely attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, this study suggests that major TCs can modify large-scale sea-level pressure fields, potentially leading to the abrupt onset of strong wind speeds even when the storm centers are thousands of kilometers away. This study highlights the amplified risk of storm-related hazards, specifically in the Central Pacific, even when major TCs are far from the populated regions. Climate model experiments suggest intense tropical cyclones will become more frequent in the Central Pacific but reduce in the Southern Hemisphere by 2100 and could drive high wind speeds even at locations thousands of km from the storm centre.
尽管强热带气旋（TC）对社会影响深远，但由于气候模式的局限性以及此类热带气旋的发生频率较低，预测其未来在区域范围内的发生率变化仍具有挑战性。在此，我们揭示了区域尺度上主要热带气旋发生频率（即最大持续风速：≥ 50 m s-1）的预测变化。两个独立的高分辨率气候模式预测了主要热带气旋发生率的类似变化。它们的空间模式突出表明，中太平洋的发生率增加，而南半球的发生率减少--这可能归因于人为气候变化。此外，这项研究还表明，大的热带气旋会改变大尺度的海平面压力场，即使风暴中心在数千公里之外，也有可能导致强风速的突然出现。这项研究强调，即使主要的热带气旋远离人口稠密地区，风暴相关灾害的风险也会扩大，特别是在中太平洋地区。气候模型实验表明，到 2100 年，强烈热带气旋在中太平洋地区将变得更加频繁，但在南半球则会减少，甚至在距离风暴中心数千公里的地方也会产生高风速。
{"title":"Robust future projections of global spatial distribution of major tropical cyclones and sea level pressure gradients","authors":"Hiroyuki Murakami, William F. Cooke, Ryo Mizuta, Hirokazu Endo, Kohei Yoshida, Shuai Wang, Pang-Chi Hsu","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01644-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01644-9","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the profound societal impacts of intense tropical cyclones (TCs), prediction of future changes in their regional occurrence remains challenging owing to climate model limitations and to the infrequent occurrence of such TCs. Here we reveal projected changes in the frequency of major TC occurrence (i.e., maximum sustained wind speed: ≥ 50 m s−1) on the regional scale. Two independent high-resolution climate models projected similar changes in major TC occurrence. Their spatial patterns highlight an increase in the Central Pacific and a reduction in occurrence in the Southern Hemisphere—likely attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, this study suggests that major TCs can modify large-scale sea-level pressure fields, potentially leading to the abrupt onset of strong wind speeds even when the storm centers are thousands of kilometers away. This study highlights the amplified risk of storm-related hazards, specifically in the Central Pacific, even when major TCs are far from the populated regions. Climate model experiments suggest intense tropical cyclones will become more frequent in the Central Pacific but reduce in the Southern Hemisphere by 2100 and could drive high wind speeds even at locations thousands of km from the storm centre.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01644-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142117960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-02DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01606-1
Tsutomu Yamanaka, Ikuya Adachi
In subduction zones, water expelled from the subducting slab is believed to be involved in seismic activity. However, little is known about its quantity and flow processes. Here, we show that the Arima hot springs in western Japan contain high concentrations of water derived from the subducting Philippine Sea slab. A long-term record spanning over half a century reveals that the fraction of slab-derived water exhibited a temporary surge in the year preceding and/or subsequent years of the 1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken Nanbu) earthquake. In total, an estimated 2.6–4.2 × 105 cubic meters of slab-derived water was introduced in conjunction with the earthquake. We infer that the earthquake was triggered by a flood-like release of water from the slab or by the bursting of clogged flow paths to the hypocenter. Our findings highlight the importance of hydrologically slab-connected hot springs for understanding ultradeep water cycles and their causal relationships with seismic phenomena. Water expelled from subducting slabs has a strong control over seismic events, with changes in hot spring water chemistry recording the surge of slab derived water, according to geochemical studies of water samples from the Arima hot springs, Japan.
{"title":"Hot springs reflect the flooding of slab-derived water as a trigger of earthquakes","authors":"Tsutomu Yamanaka, Ikuya Adachi","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01606-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01606-1","url":null,"abstract":"In subduction zones, water expelled from the subducting slab is believed to be involved in seismic activity. However, little is known about its quantity and flow processes. Here, we show that the Arima hot springs in western Japan contain high concentrations of water derived from the subducting Philippine Sea slab. A long-term record spanning over half a century reveals that the fraction of slab-derived water exhibited a temporary surge in the year preceding and/or subsequent years of the 1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken Nanbu) earthquake. In total, an estimated 2.6–4.2 × 105 cubic meters of slab-derived water was introduced in conjunction with the earthquake. We infer that the earthquake was triggered by a flood-like release of water from the slab or by the bursting of clogged flow paths to the hypocenter. Our findings highlight the importance of hydrologically slab-connected hot springs for understanding ultradeep water cycles and their causal relationships with seismic phenomena. Water expelled from subducting slabs has a strong control over seismic events, with changes in hot spring water chemistry recording the surge of slab derived water, according to geochemical studies of water samples from the Arima hot springs, Japan.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01606-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142117967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-31DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01608-z
Hao Chen, Serife Elif Can Sener, Cole Van Emburg, Miles Jones, Taylor Bogucki, Nicolas Bonilla, Muzan Williams Ijeoma, Heng Wan, Michael Carbajales-Dale
Electric vehicles are promoted as ‘clean’ technologies and offer promising reductions in transportation emissions. Nevertheless, their environmental benefits critically depend on the local electricity grid mix and the type of emission being considered. Here, we conduct a comparative life cycle assessment of the four dominant light-duty vehicle categories at both the global scale and in three representative countries: Norway, the US, and China. By analyzing different environmental indicators, particularly global warming potential and respiratory effects, and quantifying related parametric uncertainties, we reveal that the advantages of electric vehicles vary across these regions and across environmental impact types. While electric vehicles offer considerable decarbonization potential as the grid mix becomes cleaner, they might not mitigate other environmental impacts, such as increased respiratory effects on rural, low-income communities. Our results support stakeholders in identifying environmentally friendly vehicle and policy options while considering multiple factors, and emphasize the importance of tailored approaches over one-size-fits-all solutions in sustainable transportation. Electric light-duty vehicles reduce carbon dioxide emissions as the electricity grid mix becomes cleaner, but they may not mitigate particulate matter emissions due to electricity generation, according to life-cycle assessment and electricity generation forecasts in the United States, China, and Norway.
{"title":"Electric light-duty vehicles have decarbonization potential but may not reduce other environmental problems","authors":"Hao Chen, Serife Elif Can Sener, Cole Van Emburg, Miles Jones, Taylor Bogucki, Nicolas Bonilla, Muzan Williams Ijeoma, Heng Wan, Michael Carbajales-Dale","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01608-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01608-z","url":null,"abstract":"Electric vehicles are promoted as ‘clean’ technologies and offer promising reductions in transportation emissions. Nevertheless, their environmental benefits critically depend on the local electricity grid mix and the type of emission being considered. Here, we conduct a comparative life cycle assessment of the four dominant light-duty vehicle categories at both the global scale and in three representative countries: Norway, the US, and China. By analyzing different environmental indicators, particularly global warming potential and respiratory effects, and quantifying related parametric uncertainties, we reveal that the advantages of electric vehicles vary across these regions and across environmental impact types. While electric vehicles offer considerable decarbonization potential as the grid mix becomes cleaner, they might not mitigate other environmental impacts, such as increased respiratory effects on rural, low-income communities. Our results support stakeholders in identifying environmentally friendly vehicle and policy options while considering multiple factors, and emphasize the importance of tailored approaches over one-size-fits-all solutions in sustainable transportation. Electric light-duty vehicles reduce carbon dioxide emissions as the electricity grid mix becomes cleaner, but they may not mitigate particulate matter emissions due to electricity generation, according to life-cycle assessment and electricity generation forecasts in the United States, China, and Norway.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01608-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142091217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-30DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01639-6
Taishi Nakase, Marta Giovanetti, Uri Obolski, José Lourenço
Dengue virus transmission has increased over the last four decades seemingly due to changes in climate, urbanization and population growth. Using estimates of dengue transmission suitability based on historical temperature and humidity data, we examined how shifts in these climatic variables and human population growth have contributed to the change in the geographical distribution and size of the global population living in areas with high climate suitability from 1979 to 2022. We found an expansion in climate suitability in North America, East Asia and the Mediterranean basin, where with few exceptions, endemicity is not yet established. Globally, we estimated that the population in areas with high climate suitability has grown by approximately 2.5 billion. In the Global South, this increase was largely driven by population growth in areas with historically favorable climate suitability, while in the Global North this increase predominantly occurred in previously unfavorable areas with limited population growth. Changes in population growth and climatic conditions have increased the risk for dengue transmission, particularly in the Global South, according to a virus transmission index applied to 186 countries from 1979 to 2022.
{"title":"Population at risk of dengue virus transmission has increased due to coupled climate factors and population growth","authors":"Taishi Nakase, Marta Giovanetti, Uri Obolski, José Lourenço","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01639-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01639-6","url":null,"abstract":"Dengue virus transmission has increased over the last four decades seemingly due to changes in climate, urbanization and population growth. Using estimates of dengue transmission suitability based on historical temperature and humidity data, we examined how shifts in these climatic variables and human population growth have contributed to the change in the geographical distribution and size of the global population living in areas with high climate suitability from 1979 to 2022. We found an expansion in climate suitability in North America, East Asia and the Mediterranean basin, where with few exceptions, endemicity is not yet established. Globally, we estimated that the population in areas with high climate suitability has grown by approximately 2.5 billion. In the Global South, this increase was largely driven by population growth in areas with historically favorable climate suitability, while in the Global North this increase predominantly occurred in previously unfavorable areas with limited population growth. Changes in population growth and climatic conditions have increased the risk for dengue transmission, particularly in the Global South, according to a virus transmission index applied to 186 countries from 1979 to 2022.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01639-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142091216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-30DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01614-1
Mark T. Richardson, Brian H. Kahn, Peter M. Kalmus
Predicting heavy precipitation remains scientifically challenging. Here we combine Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature and moisture soundings and weather forecast winds to predict the formation of thermodynamic conditions favourable for convection in the hours following satellite overpasses. Here we treat AIRS retrievals as air parcels that are moved adiabatically to generate time-varying fields. Over much of the Central-Eastern Continental U.S. during the non-winter months of 2019–2020, our derived convective available potential energy alone predicts intense precipitation. For hourly precipitation above the all-hours 99.9th percentile, performance is marginally lower than forecasts from a convection permitting model, but similar to the ERA5 reanalysis and substantially better than using the original AIRS soundings. Our results illustrate how mesoscale advection is a major contributor to developing heavy precipitation in the region. Enhancing the full AIRS record as described here would provide an alternative approach to quantify multi-decade trends in heavy precipitation risk. Integrating weather-forecast wind data with satellite-based temperature and moisture soundings leads to better predictions of heavy hourly precipitation over the central and eastern continental United States, according to an analysis of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data.
{"title":"Mesoscale air motion and thermodynamics predict heavy hourly U.S. precipitation","authors":"Mark T. Richardson, Brian H. Kahn, Peter M. Kalmus","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01614-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01614-1","url":null,"abstract":"Predicting heavy precipitation remains scientifically challenging. Here we combine Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature and moisture soundings and weather forecast winds to predict the formation of thermodynamic conditions favourable for convection in the hours following satellite overpasses. Here we treat AIRS retrievals as air parcels that are moved adiabatically to generate time-varying fields. Over much of the Central-Eastern Continental U.S. during the non-winter months of 2019–2020, our derived convective available potential energy alone predicts intense precipitation. For hourly precipitation above the all-hours 99.9th percentile, performance is marginally lower than forecasts from a convection permitting model, but similar to the ERA5 reanalysis and substantially better than using the original AIRS soundings. Our results illustrate how mesoscale advection is a major contributor to developing heavy precipitation in the region. Enhancing the full AIRS record as described here would provide an alternative approach to quantify multi-decade trends in heavy precipitation risk. Integrating weather-forecast wind data with satellite-based temperature and moisture soundings leads to better predictions of heavy hourly precipitation over the central and eastern continental United States, according to an analysis of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01614-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142091182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-30DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01583-5
Josh Hashemi, David A. Lipson, Kyle A. Arndt, Scott J. Davidson, Aram Kalhori, Kyle Lunneberg, Lona van Delden, Walter C. Oechel, Donatella Zona
Global atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide have been increasing over previous decades with emerging research suggesting the Arctic as a notable contributor. Thermokarst processes, increasing temperature, and changes in drainage can cause degradation of polygonal tundra landscape features resulting in elevated, well-drained, unvegetated soil surfaces that exhibit large nitrous oxide emissions. Here, we outline the magnitude and some of the dominant factors controlling variability in emissions for these thermokarst landscape features in the North Slope of Alaska. We measured strong nitrous oxide emissions during the growing season from unvegetated high centered polygons (median (mean) = 104.7 (187.7) µg N2O-N m−2 h−1), substantially higher than mean rates associated with Arctic tundra wetlands and of similar magnitude to unvegetated hotspots in peat plateaus and palsa mires. In the absence of vegetation, isotopic enrichment of 15N in these thermokarst features indicates a greater influence of microbial processes, (denitrification and nitrification) from barren soil. Findings reveal that the thermokarst features discussed here (~1.5% of the study area) are likely a notable source of nitrous oxide emissions, as inferred from chamber-based estimates. Growing season emissions, estimated at 16 (28) mg N2O-N ha−1 h−1, may be large enough to affect landscape-level greenhouse gas budgets. Growing season nitrous oxide emissions from thermokarst can be significant and may influence greenhouse gas budgets, according to flux measurements from the North Slope of Alaska.
{"title":"Thermokarst landscape exhibits large nitrous oxide emissions in Alaska’s coastal polygonal tundra","authors":"Josh Hashemi, David A. Lipson, Kyle A. Arndt, Scott J. Davidson, Aram Kalhori, Kyle Lunneberg, Lona van Delden, Walter C. Oechel, Donatella Zona","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01583-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01583-5","url":null,"abstract":"Global atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide have been increasing over previous decades with emerging research suggesting the Arctic as a notable contributor. Thermokarst processes, increasing temperature, and changes in drainage can cause degradation of polygonal tundra landscape features resulting in elevated, well-drained, unvegetated soil surfaces that exhibit large nitrous oxide emissions. Here, we outline the magnitude and some of the dominant factors controlling variability in emissions for these thermokarst landscape features in the North Slope of Alaska. We measured strong nitrous oxide emissions during the growing season from unvegetated high centered polygons (median (mean) = 104.7 (187.7) µg N2O-N m−2 h−1), substantially higher than mean rates associated with Arctic tundra wetlands and of similar magnitude to unvegetated hotspots in peat plateaus and palsa mires. In the absence of vegetation, isotopic enrichment of 15N in these thermokarst features indicates a greater influence of microbial processes, (denitrification and nitrification) from barren soil. Findings reveal that the thermokarst features discussed here (~1.5% of the study area) are likely a notable source of nitrous oxide emissions, as inferred from chamber-based estimates. Growing season emissions, estimated at 16 (28) mg N2O-N ha−1 h−1, may be large enough to affect landscape-level greenhouse gas budgets. Growing season nitrous oxide emissions from thermokarst can be significant and may influence greenhouse gas budgets, according to flux measurements from the North Slope of Alaska.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01583-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142091179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-30DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01584-4
Bogdan P. Onac, Victor J. Polyak, Jerry X. Mitrovica, Joaquín Ginés, Francesc Gràcia, Joan J. Fornós, Angel Ginés, Yemane Asmerom
Reconstructing early human colonization of the Balearic Islands in the western Mediterranean is challenging due to limited archaeological evidence. Current understanding places human arrival ~4400 years ago. Here, U-series data from phreatic overgrowth on speleothems are combined with the discovery of a submerged bridge in Genovesa Cave that exhibits a distinctive coloration band near its top. The band is at the same depth as the phreatic overgrowth on speleothems (−1.1 meters), both of which indicate a sea-level stillstand between ~6000 and ~5400 years ago. Integrating the bridge depth with a high-resolution Holocene sea-level curve for Mallorca and the dated phreatic overgrowth on speleothems level constrains the construction of the bridge between ~6000 and ~5600 years ago. Subsequent sea-level rise flooded the archeological structure, ruling out later construction dates. This provides evidence for early human presence on the island dating at least 5600 and possibly beyond ~6000 years ago. Early human groups were present in Mallorca, Spain, at least 5600 years ago, based on evidence from a submerged bridge’s coloration mark and speleothem-based relative sea level analysis.
{"title":"Submerged bridge constructed at least 5600 years ago indicates early human arrival in Mallorca, Spain","authors":"Bogdan P. Onac, Victor J. Polyak, Jerry X. Mitrovica, Joaquín Ginés, Francesc Gràcia, Joan J. Fornós, Angel Ginés, Yemane Asmerom","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01584-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01584-4","url":null,"abstract":"Reconstructing early human colonization of the Balearic Islands in the western Mediterranean is challenging due to limited archaeological evidence. Current understanding places human arrival ~4400 years ago. Here, U-series data from phreatic overgrowth on speleothems are combined with the discovery of a submerged bridge in Genovesa Cave that exhibits a distinctive coloration band near its top. The band is at the same depth as the phreatic overgrowth on speleothems (−1.1 meters), both of which indicate a sea-level stillstand between ~6000 and ~5400 years ago. Integrating the bridge depth with a high-resolution Holocene sea-level curve for Mallorca and the dated phreatic overgrowth on speleothems level constrains the construction of the bridge between ~6000 and ~5600 years ago. Subsequent sea-level rise flooded the archeological structure, ruling out later construction dates. This provides evidence for early human presence on the island dating at least 5600 and possibly beyond ~6000 years ago. Early human groups were present in Mallorca, Spain, at least 5600 years ago, based on evidence from a submerged bridge’s coloration mark and speleothem-based relative sea level analysis.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01584-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142091164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-30DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01619-w
Sihuan Wei, Alan D. Ziegler, Yingzuo Qin, Dashan Wang, Yuntian Chen, Jinyue Yan, Zhenzhong Zeng
Photovoltaic (PV) panel deployment for decarbonization may reduce local terrestrial albedo, triggering a positive radiative forcing that counteracts the desired negative radiative forcing from carbon emission reductions. Yet, this potential adverse impact remains uncertain due to limited observations at PV sites. Herein we employ a robust linear parameterization method to quantify PV-induced albedo changes based on satellite data globally. We find an overall albedo decrease of −1.28 (−1.80, −0.90) × 10−2 (median and interquartile range), specific for land-cover types and climate regimes. However, the extent of albedo reduction is markedly lower than simplistic assumed values in simulating climate feedback for solar farming in Earth system models. Moreover, the albedo-induced positive radiative forcing can be offset by negative radiative forcing from clean solar generation in most PV farms within one year. Our findings underscore PV’s potential in mitigating global warming and stress the need for more accurate model estimations. The land surface albedo reduction due to solar panel installation varies across land-cover types and climate regimes, but in most locations the decrease does not outweigh the benefits of decarbonization, according to an analysis using satellite images of 352 sites.
{"title":"Small reduction in land surface albedo due to solar panel expansion worldwide","authors":"Sihuan Wei, Alan D. Ziegler, Yingzuo Qin, Dashan Wang, Yuntian Chen, Jinyue Yan, Zhenzhong Zeng","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01619-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01619-w","url":null,"abstract":"Photovoltaic (PV) panel deployment for decarbonization may reduce local terrestrial albedo, triggering a positive radiative forcing that counteracts the desired negative radiative forcing from carbon emission reductions. Yet, this potential adverse impact remains uncertain due to limited observations at PV sites. Herein we employ a robust linear parameterization method to quantify PV-induced albedo changes based on satellite data globally. We find an overall albedo decrease of −1.28 (−1.80, −0.90) × 10−2 (median and interquartile range), specific for land-cover types and climate regimes. However, the extent of albedo reduction is markedly lower than simplistic assumed values in simulating climate feedback for solar farming in Earth system models. Moreover, the albedo-induced positive radiative forcing can be offset by negative radiative forcing from clean solar generation in most PV farms within one year. Our findings underscore PV’s potential in mitigating global warming and stress the need for more accurate model estimations. The land surface albedo reduction due to solar panel installation varies across land-cover types and climate regimes, but in most locations the decrease does not outweigh the benefits of decarbonization, according to an analysis using satellite images of 352 sites.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01619-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142091193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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