Pub Date : 2024-11-07DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01848-z
Sandeep Poudel, Rebecca Elliott, Richard Anyah, Zbigniew Grabowski, James Knighton
Communities respond to flooding events based upon risk perceptions and available adaptive behaviors (e.g., emigrating, purchasing insurance, constructing levees). Across the United States, sea level rise, intensifying storm-surges, and extreme rainfall may alter human-flood dynamics. Here, we use calibrated Socio-Environmental models of contiguous US coastal census tracts and two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). We project that by 2100, total flood insurance claims will increase by +25% to +130% under low (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emissions scenarios, respectively. The increase in flood insurance claims will impact mainly socially vulnerable communities. Further, we project that active NFIP policies will increase from +30% under low emission scenario to +60% under high emission scenario. Our finding also suggests the growing debt of the National Flood Insurance Program under higher emissions. Raising the water elevation threshold for coastal flooding by +1 meter via levees may reduce future surge-related losses by 95% and 40% under low and high emission scenarios and stabilize housing markets. Our future projections of flood insurance claims, policy coverage, and the impact of water elevation serve as credible hypotheses for the evolution of human flood dynamics under climate change. They can inform national flood policy and future research. By 2100, total flood insurance claims and policy coverage are projected to increase under high emission scenario, and it will disproportionally impact most vulnerable communities in coastal areas of the US, according to an analysis that uses a socio-environmental model and climate scenarios.
{"title":"Differential flood insurance participation and housing market trajectories under future coastal flooding in the United States","authors":"Sandeep Poudel, Rebecca Elliott, Richard Anyah, Zbigniew Grabowski, James Knighton","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01848-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01848-z","url":null,"abstract":"Communities respond to flooding events based upon risk perceptions and available adaptive behaviors (e.g., emigrating, purchasing insurance, constructing levees). Across the United States, sea level rise, intensifying storm-surges, and extreme rainfall may alter human-flood dynamics. Here, we use calibrated Socio-Environmental models of contiguous US coastal census tracts and two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). We project that by 2100, total flood insurance claims will increase by +25% to +130% under low (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emissions scenarios, respectively. The increase in flood insurance claims will impact mainly socially vulnerable communities. Further, we project that active NFIP policies will increase from +30% under low emission scenario to +60% under high emission scenario. Our finding also suggests the growing debt of the National Flood Insurance Program under higher emissions. Raising the water elevation threshold for coastal flooding by +1 meter via levees may reduce future surge-related losses by 95% and 40% under low and high emission scenarios and stabilize housing markets. Our future projections of flood insurance claims, policy coverage, and the impact of water elevation serve as credible hypotheses for the evolution of human flood dynamics under climate change. They can inform national flood policy and future research. By 2100, total flood insurance claims and policy coverage are projected to increase under high emission scenario, and it will disproportionally impact most vulnerable communities in coastal areas of the US, according to an analysis that uses a socio-environmental model and climate scenarios.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01848-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142600824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-06DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01831-8
Giorgia Camperio, S. Nemiah Ladd, Matiu Prebble, Ronald Lloren, Elena Argiriadis, Daniel B. Nelson, Christiane Krentscher, Nathalie Dubois
Remote Oceania was among the last places settled by humans. However, the timing of initial human settlements and the early introduction of horticulture remain debated. We retrieved a sediment core close to Teouma, the oldest cemetery in Remote Oceania that reveals evidence of initial settlement, horticulture practice, and concurrent climatic conditions on the island of Efate, Vanuatu. Sedimentary biomarkers indicating human presence (coprostanol and epicoprostanol), and taro cultivation (palmitone), increase simultaneously, attesting to the early introduction of horticulture by first settlers. The precipitation signal preserved in leaf waxes shows that the initial settlement occurred during a period of increasing wetness—climatic conditions favourable for the establishment of horticulture. The timing of these events is constrained by a high-resolution radiocarbon chronology that places the first unequivocal trace of human activity and horticulture at 2800 years ago. These findings advance our understanding of human history in the Pacific. Human settlement and horticulture began in Vanuatu at least 2800 years ago during a wet climatic period, according to an analysis of sedimentary biomarkers and radiocarbon dating of a sediment core which records the past 5,000 years on Efate island.
{"title":"Sedimentary biomarkers of human presence and taro cultivation reveal early horticulture in Remote Oceania","authors":"Giorgia Camperio, S. Nemiah Ladd, Matiu Prebble, Ronald Lloren, Elena Argiriadis, Daniel B. Nelson, Christiane Krentscher, Nathalie Dubois","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01831-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01831-8","url":null,"abstract":"Remote Oceania was among the last places settled by humans. However, the timing of initial human settlements and the early introduction of horticulture remain debated. We retrieved a sediment core close to Teouma, the oldest cemetery in Remote Oceania that reveals evidence of initial settlement, horticulture practice, and concurrent climatic conditions on the island of Efate, Vanuatu. Sedimentary biomarkers indicating human presence (coprostanol and epicoprostanol), and taro cultivation (palmitone), increase simultaneously, attesting to the early introduction of horticulture by first settlers. The precipitation signal preserved in leaf waxes shows that the initial settlement occurred during a period of increasing wetness—climatic conditions favourable for the establishment of horticulture. The timing of these events is constrained by a high-resolution radiocarbon chronology that places the first unequivocal trace of human activity and horticulture at 2800 years ago. These findings advance our understanding of human history in the Pacific. Human settlement and horticulture began in Vanuatu at least 2800 years ago during a wet climatic period, according to an analysis of sedimentary biomarkers and radiocarbon dating of a sediment core which records the past 5,000 years on Efate island.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01831-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142600879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-06DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01839-0
Frédérique Leclerc, Sylvain Palagonia, Nathalie Feuillet, Paraskevi Nomikou, Danai Lampridou, Paul Barrière, Alexandre Dano, Eduardo Ochoa, Nuno Gracias, Javier Escartin
In the Mediterranean Sea, the probability that a large earthquake-triggered tsunami will occur in the coming decades is high. Historical tsunami database informs us on their geographical occurrence but their sources, i.e., the faults that slipped during earthquakes and displaced the seafloor to generate tsunamis, are often unknown. Here we identify the submarine rupture of the Amorgos earthquake that on July 9, 1956, triggered the largest mediterranean tsunami in the past two centuries. Using submarines, we explored major normal faults in the epicentral area, and discovered a large surface rupture along the 75-km long Amorgos fault. The 9.8-16.8-m large seafloor offset is compatible with a Mw7.5 event. This finding prompts a reassessment of the largest (≥20 m) tsunami wave origin, previously attributed to earthquake-triggered submarine mass-wasting. It demonstrates that tsunami source can be determined several decades after an event, a key information to better assess future seismic and tsunami hazards. A surface rupture which offset the seabed by 9.8-16.8 m along the 75 km long Amorgos fault is probably the main cause of the largest tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea in the last two centuries, according to direct submarine observations.
{"title":"Large seafloor rupture caused by the 1956 Amorgos tsunamigenic earthquake, Greece","authors":"Frédérique Leclerc, Sylvain Palagonia, Nathalie Feuillet, Paraskevi Nomikou, Danai Lampridou, Paul Barrière, Alexandre Dano, Eduardo Ochoa, Nuno Gracias, Javier Escartin","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01839-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01839-0","url":null,"abstract":"In the Mediterranean Sea, the probability that a large earthquake-triggered tsunami will occur in the coming decades is high. Historical tsunami database informs us on their geographical occurrence but their sources, i.e., the faults that slipped during earthquakes and displaced the seafloor to generate tsunamis, are often unknown. Here we identify the submarine rupture of the Amorgos earthquake that on July 9, 1956, triggered the largest mediterranean tsunami in the past two centuries. Using submarines, we explored major normal faults in the epicentral area, and discovered a large surface rupture along the 75-km long Amorgos fault. The 9.8-16.8-m large seafloor offset is compatible with a Mw7.5 event. This finding prompts a reassessment of the largest (≥20 m) tsunami wave origin, previously attributed to earthquake-triggered submarine mass-wasting. It demonstrates that tsunami source can be determined several decades after an event, a key information to better assess future seismic and tsunami hazards. A surface rupture which offset the seabed by 9.8-16.8 m along the 75 km long Amorgos fault is probably the main cause of the largest tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea in the last two centuries, according to direct submarine observations.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01839-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With unintentional injuries being the leading mortality cause among children, the comprehensive evaluation of the unintentional injury burden concerning heat exposure remains unknown. Here we quantified the years lived with disability (YLD) due to unintentional child injuries in Guangzhou from 2016–2020 using the injury surveillance data. A Poisson regression model was employed to explore how various magnitudes of heat exposure could increase the injury burden in different children’s subgroups. Our findings suggest a positive link between heat exposure and childhood injuries. The successive heatwave led to a 16.8–23.8% higher risk of childhood injuries. Girls and preschoolers exhibited higher vulnerability to heat. Furthermore, heat exposure increased the road injury burden for preschoolers aged 3–6 years but not for adolescents. Our study links heat exposure to childhood unintentional injuries, providing insights into the demographic features and injury causes. This evidence can be used to inform healthy childhood development. In Guangzhou city, the risk of child unintentional injuries, such as road injuries and falls, is associated with heat exposure, and girls and preschoolers are the most vulnerable, according to an analysis combining the statistical approach, incidence injuries, disability, and meteorological data.
{"title":"Extreme heat and heatwaves are linked to the risk of unintentional child injuries in Guangzhou city","authors":"Tian Tian, Boheng Liang, Yucan Zhang, Tingyuan Huang, Congxing Shi, Pengyu Wang, Shimin Chen, Tong Guo, Zhiqiang Li, Wangjian Zhang, Pengzhe Qin, Yuantao Hao, Xiao Lin","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01846-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01846-1","url":null,"abstract":"With unintentional injuries being the leading mortality cause among children, the comprehensive evaluation of the unintentional injury burden concerning heat exposure remains unknown. Here we quantified the years lived with disability (YLD) due to unintentional child injuries in Guangzhou from 2016–2020 using the injury surveillance data. A Poisson regression model was employed to explore how various magnitudes of heat exposure could increase the injury burden in different children’s subgroups. Our findings suggest a positive link between heat exposure and childhood injuries. The successive heatwave led to a 16.8–23.8% higher risk of childhood injuries. Girls and preschoolers exhibited higher vulnerability to heat. Furthermore, heat exposure increased the road injury burden for preschoolers aged 3–6 years but not for adolescents. Our study links heat exposure to childhood unintentional injuries, providing insights into the demographic features and injury causes. This evidence can be used to inform healthy childhood development. In Guangzhou city, the risk of child unintentional injuries, such as road injuries and falls, is associated with heat exposure, and girls and preschoolers are the most vulnerable, according to an analysis combining the statistical approach, incidence injuries, disability, and meteorological data.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01846-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142600882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-06DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01850-5
Mingquan Li, Qingyuan Ma, Rui Shan, Ahmed Abdulla, Edgar Virguez, Shuo Gao, Dalia Patiño-Echeverri
Renewable energy is essential for power system decarbonization, but extended and unexpected periods of extremely low wind and solar resources (i.e., wind and solar droughts) pose a threat to reliability. The challenge is further exacerbated if shortages of the two occur simultaneously or if they affect neighboring grids simultaneously. Here we present a framework to characterize these events and propose three metrics to comprehensively assess renewable energy quality: resource availability, variability, and extremeness. An examination of long-term data across a vast geographical region shows a strong spatial correlation and temporal coincidence of renewable energy droughts. It also finds a lack of sites that excel in all three quality attributes, which presents a trilemma to investors, system planners, and policymakers. These findings underscore the significance of considering factors beyond mere resource availability and contribute to developing informed strategies for the reliable and sustainable deployment of variable energy resources. The introduction of indicators such as availability, variability, and extremeness significantly alter our understanding of renewable energy quality, posing a challenge for investors, system planners, and policymakers, according to results from a statistical framework and time-series data analysis.
{"title":"Renewable energy quality trilemma and coincident wind and solar droughts","authors":"Mingquan Li, Qingyuan Ma, Rui Shan, Ahmed Abdulla, Edgar Virguez, Shuo Gao, Dalia Patiño-Echeverri","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01850-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01850-5","url":null,"abstract":"Renewable energy is essential for power system decarbonization, but extended and unexpected periods of extremely low wind and solar resources (i.e., wind and solar droughts) pose a threat to reliability. The challenge is further exacerbated if shortages of the two occur simultaneously or if they affect neighboring grids simultaneously. Here we present a framework to characterize these events and propose three metrics to comprehensively assess renewable energy quality: resource availability, variability, and extremeness. An examination of long-term data across a vast geographical region shows a strong spatial correlation and temporal coincidence of renewable energy droughts. It also finds a lack of sites that excel in all three quality attributes, which presents a trilemma to investors, system planners, and policymakers. These findings underscore the significance of considering factors beyond mere resource availability and contribute to developing informed strategies for the reliable and sustainable deployment of variable energy resources. The introduction of indicators such as availability, variability, and extremeness significantly alter our understanding of renewable energy quality, posing a challenge for investors, system planners, and policymakers, according to results from a statistical framework and time-series data analysis.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01850-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-06DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01743-7
Guangli Zhou, Yifan Gu, Yufeng Wu, Yanmei Li
Achieving carbon neutrality in the lead industry requires both technological decarbonization and comprehensive reduction of surplus lead to mitigate environmental risks from stacking. A successful decarbonization pathway requires integrating material-oriented and technology-oriented factors synergistically. In this study, a comprehensive dynamic model was developed to encompass emissions of greenhouse gases throughout various processes and levels of lead redundancy across different scenarios. The results show that China’s cumulative lead consumption amounts to 190.24 million tonnes, with greenhouse gases emissions reach 250.96 million tonnes CO2-equivalent between 2021 and 2060. Strategies focused on material-oriented approaches to achieve an earlier carbon peak can yield short-term success, while a technology-oriented strategy demonstrates superior long-term optimization. In order to achieve synergistic outcomes in reducing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, it is imperative to prioritize short-term improvements in recycling rates and long-term technological advancements. Additionally, exploring new applications for surplus lead should also be pursued. A combination of short-term recycling enhancements and long-term technological advancements can significantly reduce carbon emissions in the Chinese lead industry, according to dynamic modelling of past and future lead industry trends.
{"title":"Technology and material-oriented strategies can reduce lead industry carbon emissions in China","authors":"Guangli Zhou, Yifan Gu, Yufeng Wu, Yanmei Li","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01743-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01743-7","url":null,"abstract":"Achieving carbon neutrality in the lead industry requires both technological decarbonization and comprehensive reduction of surplus lead to mitigate environmental risks from stacking. A successful decarbonization pathway requires integrating material-oriented and technology-oriented factors synergistically. In this study, a comprehensive dynamic model was developed to encompass emissions of greenhouse gases throughout various processes and levels of lead redundancy across different scenarios. The results show that China’s cumulative lead consumption amounts to 190.24 million tonnes, with greenhouse gases emissions reach 250.96 million tonnes CO2-equivalent between 2021 and 2060. Strategies focused on material-oriented approaches to achieve an earlier carbon peak can yield short-term success, while a technology-oriented strategy demonstrates superior long-term optimization. In order to achieve synergistic outcomes in reducing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, it is imperative to prioritize short-term improvements in recycling rates and long-term technological advancements. Additionally, exploring new applications for surplus lead should also be pursued. A combination of short-term recycling enhancements and long-term technological advancements can significantly reduce carbon emissions in the Chinese lead industry, according to dynamic modelling of past and future lead industry trends.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01743-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An advance has been made towards a method for forecasting earthquakes several months before they occur. The method relies on changes of groundwater chemistry as earthquake precursors. In a study published in 2014, we showed that changes of groundwater chemistry occurred prior to and were associated with two earthquakes of magnitude 5 and higher, which affected northern Iceland in 2012 and 2013. Here we test the hypothesis that similar or larger earthquakes could have been forecast in the following decade (i.e. 2014–2023) based on our published findings. We found that we could have forecast one of the three greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred. Noting that changes of groundwater chemistry were oscillatory, we infer expansion and contraction of the groundwater source region caused by coupled crustal dilation and fracture mineralisation associated with the stress build-up before earthquakes. We conclude by proposing how our approach could be implemented elsewhere. An analysis of groundwater chemistry in northern Iceland from 2014 to 2023 shows that groundwater chemical changes can precede earthquakes by several months and may carry some potential for forecasting earthquakes.
{"title":"Towards a method for forecasting earthquakes in Iceland using changes in groundwater chemistry","authors":"Alasdair Skelton, Erik Sturkell, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Gabrielle Stockmann, Sigurjón Jónsson, Andri Stefansson, Lillemor Liljedahl‐Claesson, Niklas Wästeby, Margareta Andrén, Elin Tollefsen, Jóhann Gunnarsson Robin, Nicole Keller, Halldór Geirsson, Hreinn Hjartarson, Ingrid Kockum","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01852-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01852-3","url":null,"abstract":"An advance has been made towards a method for forecasting earthquakes several months before they occur. The method relies on changes of groundwater chemistry as earthquake precursors. In a study published in 2014, we showed that changes of groundwater chemistry occurred prior to and were associated with two earthquakes of magnitude 5 and higher, which affected northern Iceland in 2012 and 2013. Here we test the hypothesis that similar or larger earthquakes could have been forecast in the following decade (i.e. 2014–2023) based on our published findings. We found that we could have forecast one of the three greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred. Noting that changes of groundwater chemistry were oscillatory, we infer expansion and contraction of the groundwater source region caused by coupled crustal dilation and fracture mineralisation associated with the stress build-up before earthquakes. We conclude by proposing how our approach could be implemented elsewhere. An analysis of groundwater chemistry in northern Iceland from 2014 to 2023 shows that groundwater chemical changes can precede earthquakes by several months and may carry some potential for forecasting earthquakes.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01852-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-05DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7
In-Hong Park, Sang-Wook Yeh, Seung-Ki Min, Soon-Il An, Shang-Ping Xie, Jongsoo Shin
Tropical convection plays a critical role in modulating the global climate by influencing climate variability. However, its future projection under climate mitigation scenarios remains uncertain. Here, we found that while the relationship between precipitation intensity and upward motion remains constant regardless of changing CO2 concentrations, the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection and the convective zone exhibit hysteretic and irreversible behavior. As the CO2 concentration decreases from its peak (ramp-down), higher tropical ocean temperature leads to higher sea surface temperature thresholds for convection than during the period of increasing CO2 concentration (ramp-up), while convective instability remains the same during both ramp-up and ramp-down. El Niño-like warming during the ramp-down leads to a weakening of the Walker circulation and an expansion of the convective zone in the central to eastern tropical Pacific by a warmer-get-wetter mechanism. Our results suggest that CO2 removal does not guarantee the recovery of tropical convection. The sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection and convective zones shows irreversible behavior, suggesting that mitigation efforts may not fully offset tropical convective activities, according to results from different climate mitigation scenarios to analyze tropical convection and its physical mechanisms.
{"title":"Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing","authors":"In-Hong Park, Sang-Wook Yeh, Seung-Ki Min, Soon-Il An, Shang-Ping Xie, Jongsoo Shin","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical convection plays a critical role in modulating the global climate by influencing climate variability. However, its future projection under climate mitigation scenarios remains uncertain. Here, we found that while the relationship between precipitation intensity and upward motion remains constant regardless of changing CO2 concentrations, the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection and the convective zone exhibit hysteretic and irreversible behavior. As the CO2 concentration decreases from its peak (ramp-down), higher tropical ocean temperature leads to higher sea surface temperature thresholds for convection than during the period of increasing CO2 concentration (ramp-up), while convective instability remains the same during both ramp-up and ramp-down. El Niño-like warming during the ramp-down leads to a weakening of the Walker circulation and an expansion of the convective zone in the central to eastern tropical Pacific by a warmer-get-wetter mechanism. Our results suggest that CO2 removal does not guarantee the recovery of tropical convection. The sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection and convective zones shows irreversible behavior, suggesting that mitigation efforts may not fully offset tropical convective activities, according to results from different climate mitigation scenarios to analyze tropical convection and its physical mechanisms.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01751-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-05DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01814-9
Nicola Campomenosi, Ross John Angel, Boriana Mihailova, Matteo Alvaro
Natural processes such as earthquakes, volcanism and orogenesis are controlled by plate tectonics which, in turn, depend on how rocks and minerals, the building blocks of Solid Earth, deform under different environmental conditions. The rheology of rock-forming minerals is therefore the key for understanding the geodynamics of our planet. Our present knowledge of mineral rheology mainly comes from laboratory experiments and theoretical models that are based on synthetic systems with simplified chemistry. However mineral properties strongly depend on structural defects and impurities. Therefore, the interpretation of natural chemically complex systems requires uncertain extrapolations. Mineral inclusions are macroscopic defects with respect to their host, so studying in situ their effects on the rheology of their host minerals opens a promising prospect for a better understanding of the rheology of mineral assemblages and thus the dynamics of our planet. The study of mineral host-inclusion systems by Raman spectroscopy at non-ambient conditions is an effective method to probe in situ deformational processes in the Earth’s interior
{"title":"Mineral host inclusion systems are a window into the solid-state rheology of the Earth","authors":"Nicola Campomenosi, Ross John Angel, Boriana Mihailova, Matteo Alvaro","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01814-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01814-9","url":null,"abstract":"Natural processes such as earthquakes, volcanism and orogenesis are controlled by plate tectonics which, in turn, depend on how rocks and minerals, the building blocks of Solid Earth, deform under different environmental conditions. The rheology of rock-forming minerals is therefore the key for understanding the geodynamics of our planet. Our present knowledge of mineral rheology mainly comes from laboratory experiments and theoretical models that are based on synthetic systems with simplified chemistry. However mineral properties strongly depend on structural defects and impurities. Therefore, the interpretation of natural chemically complex systems requires uncertain extrapolations. Mineral inclusions are macroscopic defects with respect to their host, so studying in situ their effects on the rheology of their host minerals opens a promising prospect for a better understanding of the rheology of mineral assemblages and thus the dynamics of our planet. The study of mineral host-inclusion systems by Raman spectroscopy at non-ambient conditions is an effective method to probe in situ deformational processes in the Earth’s interior","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-5"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01814-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-04DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01770-4
Clarissa L. Dietz, Randall D. Jackson, Matthew D. Ruark, Gregg R. Sanford
{"title":"Author Correction: Soil carbon maintained by perennial grasslands over 30 years but lost in field crop systems in a temperate Mollisol","authors":"Clarissa L. Dietz, Randall D. Jackson, Matthew D. Ruark, Gregg R. Sanford","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01770-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01770-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-5"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01770-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142574250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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