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Eocene maar sediments record warming of up to 3.5 °C during a hyperthermal event 47.2 million years ago 始新世大气沉积物记录了距今 4720 万年前的一次高热事件期间高达 3.5 °C的升温过程
IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01628-9
Clemens Schmitt, Iuliana Vasiliev, Niels Meijer, Julia Brugger, Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr, André Bahr, Andreas Mulch
Eocene hyperthermal events reflect profound perturbations of the global carbon cycle. Most of our knowledge about their onset, timing, and rates originates from marine records. Hence, the pacing and magnitude of hyperthermal continental warming remains largely unaccounted for due to a lack of high-resolution climate records. Here we use terrestrial biomarkers and carbon isotopes retrieved from varved lake deposits of the UNESCO World Heritage site ‘Messel Fossil Pit’ (Germany) to quantify sub-millennial to millennial-scale temperature and carbon isotope changes across hyperthermal event C21n-H1 (47.2 million years ago). Our results show maximum warming of ca. 3.5 °C during C21n-H1. We propose that two components are responsible for the warming pattern across the hyperthermal: (1) the massive release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere-ocean system and (2) half-precession orbital forcing indicated by ~12.000-year temperature cycles. The carbon isotope record of bulk organic matter indicates a sharp, 7‰ decrease at the peak of the hyperthermal, corresponding to increased organic carbon content and a shift in the lake algal community. Collectively, our proxy data reveal the structure of continental temperature response during the hyperthermal event that is characterized by overall warming with a superimposed pattern of sub-orbital scale temperature fluctuations. During an early middle Eocene hyperthermal event warming of up to 3.5 °C, probably in response to greenhouse gas release and orbital forcing, was recorded in varved lake sediments from Messel Fossil Pit, Germany.
始新世高热事件反映了全球碳循环的深刻变化。我们对其发生、时间和速率的了解大多来自海洋记录。因此,由于缺乏高分辨率的气候记录,高热大陆变暖的节奏和幅度在很大程度上仍未得到解释。在这里,我们利用从联合国教科文组织世界遗产 "梅塞尔化石坑"(德国)的变质湖沉积物中提取的陆地生物标志物和碳同位素,对整个超高温事件C21n-H1(4720万年前)期间亚千年至千年尺度的温度和碳同位素变化进行了量化。我们的研究结果表明,C21n-H1期间的最大升温幅度约为3.5°C。我们认为有两个因素造成了整个超热时期的变暖模式:(1)温室气体大量释放到大气-海洋系统;(2)约 12.000 年的温度周期所显示的半周期轨道强迫。大量有机物的碳同位素记录表明,在超高温时期的顶峰,有机碳含量急剧下降了 7‰,这与有机碳含量的增加和湖泊藻类群落的变化是相对应的。总之,我们的代用数据揭示了高热事件期间大陆温度响应的结构,其特点是整体变暖,并叠加了亚轨道尺度的温度波动模式。在早中新世超热事件期间,德国梅塞尔化石坑的变质湖泊沉积物中记录到了高达 3.5 °C的升温,这可能是对温室气体释放和轨道强迫的响应。
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引用次数: 0
Wetland hydrological dynamics and methane emissions 湿地水文动态和甲烷排放
IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01635-w
Shihao Cui, Pengfei Liu, Haonan Guo, Claudia Kalla Nielsen, Johannes Wilhelmus Maria Pullens, Qing Chen, Lorenzo Pugliese, Shubiao Wu
Wetlands are the largest and most uncertain biological source of atmospheric methane, with hydrological fluctuations exacerbating this uncertainty. Here we critically explore the complex relationship between hydrological fluctuations and methane emissions in wetlands by integrating observations from 31 FLUXNET wetland sites with a comprehensive literature review. We present the prevalence and patterns of water table fluctuations and their contribution to uncertainty in methane fluxes. We also highlight key pathways through which these fluctuations affect methane production and emission, such as soil redox heterogeneity, changes in substrate availability and alternative electron acceptor pool, the contribution of different methane transport pathways, and the non-linear responses of community structure and activity of methanogens and methanotrophs to hydrological fluctuations. This review aims to improve the accuracy of wetland methane emission reports by carefully assessing biogeochemical kinetics under hydrological fluctuations. Water table fluctuations in wetlands impact methane production and emissions via biotic and abiotic pathways including soil redox, substrate availability, electron flow, gas transport, and microbial community structure, according to the analysis of observational data from 31 wetland sites and a broad literature review.
湿地是大气中甲烷最大且最不确定的生物来源,水文波动加剧了这种不确定性。在这里,我们通过综合 31 个 FLUXNET 湿地站点的观测数据和全面的文献综述,批判性地探讨了湿地水文波动和甲烷排放之间的复杂关系。我们介绍了地下水位波动的普遍性和模式及其对甲烷通量不确定性的影响。我们还强调了这些波动影响甲烷生产和排放的关键途径,如土壤氧化还原异质性、基质可用性和替代电子受体池的变化、不同甲烷传输途径的贡献,以及甲烷菌和甲烷滋养菌群落结构和活性对水文波动的非线性响应。本综述旨在通过仔细评估水文波动下的生物地球化学动力学,提高湿地甲烷排放报告的准确性。根据对 31 个湿地观测数据的分析和广泛的文献综述,湿地地下水位波动通过生物和非生物途径影响甲烷的产生和排放,包括土壤氧化还原、基质可用性、电子流、气体传输和微生物群落结构。
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引用次数: 0
Leverage points for the uptake of organic food production and consumption in the United Kingdom 英国有机食品生产和消费的杠杆点
IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01585-3
Tom Staton, Nicholas Davison, Sally Westaway, Lisa Arguile, Nina Adams, Victor Aguilera, Lillie Bellamy, Alysoun Bolger, Richard Gantlett, Steven Jacobs, Niamh Noone, Joanna T. Staley, Laurence G. Smith
Organic food systems are recognised as an important component in meeting United Nations’ (UN) Sustainable Development Goals. A leverage points perspective can help to identify approaches which have the potential to facilitate transformative systemic change towards organic and sustainable farming. Using fuzzy cognitive maps developed from expert stakeholder opinions, we modelled a system of drivers of organic food production and consumption in the United Kingdom, according to the UN Sustainability Assessment of Food and Agriculture systems framework. The most influential concepts in the uptake of organic systems were related to system norms and values and social structures, such as short-term economic thinking, landowner engagement, and relationships with certification bodies. However, in a scenario analysis, organic stakeholders identified relatively shallower leverage points as more likely to change under a sustainable future, resulting in limited systemic change. This demonstrates the need for policies targeting system norms, values and social structures relating to food systems to facilitate the transition to organic and sustainable farming. Short-term economic thinking, landowner engagement with organic farming, and consumers’ willingness to pay for organic food are the most influential factors in organic food production and consumption scale-up, according to an analysis combining data from expert workshops and fuzzy cognitive maps.
有机食品系统被认为是实现联合国可持续发展目标的重要组成部分。杠杆点视角有助于确定哪些方法有可能促进向有机和可持续农业的转型性系统变革。利用根据利益相关者专家意见绘制的模糊认知图,我们根据联合国粮食和农业系统可持续性评估框架,对英国有机食品生产和消费的驱动因素系统进行了建模。对采用有机系统影响最大的概念与系统规范、价值观和社会结构有关,如短期经济思维、土地所有者的参与以及与认证机构的关系。然而,在情景分析中,有机利益相关者认为,在可持续的未来,相对较浅的杠杆点更有可能发生变化,从而导致系统变化有限。这表明,需要针对与粮食系统有关的系统规范、价值观和社会结构制定政策,以促进向有机和可持续农业的过渡。根据一项结合专家研讨会数据和模糊认知地图的分析,短期经济思维、土地所有者对有机农业的参与以及消费者对有机食品的支付意愿是扩大有机食品生产和消费规模的最有影响力的因素。
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引用次数: 0
Global increase in the optimal temperature for the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems 全球陆地生态系统生产力最佳温度的上升
IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01636-9
Zhongxiang Fang, Wenmin Zhang, Lanhui Wang, Guy Schurgers, Philippe Ciais, Josep Peñuelas, Martin Brandt, Hui Yang, Ke Huang, Qiu Shen, Fensholt Rasmus
Vegetation growth may adapt to climate warming by adjusting the relationship between photosynthetic capacity and temperature. However, changes in the optimal temperature for ecosystem productivity during recent decades of warming remain uncertain. Here we provide empirical evidence that global optimal temperature increased at a rate of 0.017 ± 0.002 °C y−1 from 1982 to 2016, using multiple datasets of satellite-derived productivity and climate variables. Model simulations show that the optimal temperature will increase by 0.027 ± 0.001 °C y−1 until the end of 21st century. The global increasing optimal temperature is consistent with increasing mean air temperatures and model simulations further confirm the key role of temperature in regulating changes in optimal temperature, while being co-regulated by other factors, such as CO2 and precipitation. These results suggest that vegetation is acclimating to warming and that the negative impacts of climate change on ecosystem productivity may be less severe than previously thought. Climate change may have less negative impact on terrestrial ecosystem productivity as vegetation growth adapts to climatic warming, increasing optimal temperature from 1982 to 2016, according to evidence from satellite-derived ecosystem productivity, climate variables, and ecosystem simulations.
植被生长可能会通过调整光合作用能力与温度之间的关系来适应气候变暖。然而,最近几十年气候变暖期间生态系统生产力最适温度的变化仍不确定。在此,我们利用卫星衍生的生产力和气候变量的多个数据集提供了实证证据,证明从1982年到2016年,全球最适温度以每年0.017 ± 0.002 ℃的速度上升。模型模拟显示,最佳温度将以每年 0.027 ± 0.001 ℃的速度上升,直至 21 世纪末。全球最适温度的升高与平均气温的升高是一致的,模型模拟进一步证实了温度在调节最适温度变化中的关键作用,同时也受到二氧化碳和降水等其他因素的共同调节。这些结果表明,植被正在适应气候变暖,气候变化对生态系统生产力的负面影响可能没有以前想象的那么严重。根据来自卫星的生态系统生产力、气候变量和生态系统模拟的证据,随着植被生长适应气候变暖,最适温度从1982年到2016年不断升高,气候变化对陆地生态系统生产力的负面影响可能较小。
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引用次数: 0
Short-term exposure to fine particulate pollution and elderly mortality in Chile 短期暴露于微粒污染与智利老年人死亡率
IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01634-x
Pablo Busch, Paulo Rocha, Kyung Jin Lee, Luis Abdón Cifuentes, Xiao Hui Tai
Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is known to cause adverse health outcomes. Most of the evidence has been derived from developed countries, with lower pollution levels and different demographics and comorbidities from the rest of the world. Here we leverage new satellite-based measurements of PM2.5, combined with comprehensive public records in Chile, to study the effect of PM2.5 pollution on elderly mortality. We find that a 10 μg/m3 monthly increase in PM2.5 exposure is associated with a 1.7% increase (95% C.I.: 1.1–2.4%) in all-cause mortality for individuals aged 75+. Satellite-based measurements allow us to comprehensively investigate heterogeneous effects. We find remarkably similar effect sizes across baseline exposure, rural and urban areas, income, and over time, demonstrating consistency in the evidence on mortality effects of PM2.5 exposure. The most notable source of heterogeneity is geographical, with effects closer to 5% in the center-south and in the metropolitan area. For Chilean people aged 75 and over, a monthly increase in the levels of fine particulate matter, a form of air pollution, are consistently associated with higher all-cause mortality, based on an analysis of satellite PM2.5 data and health records.
众所周知,暴露于细颗粒物(PM2.5)会对健康造成不良影响。大多数证据都来自发达国家,这些国家的污染水平较低,人口结构和合并症也与世界其他国家不同。在这里,我们利用基于卫星的 PM2.5 测量数据,结合智利的全面公共记录,研究 PM2.5 污染对老年人死亡率的影响。我们发现,PM2.5暴露量每月每增加10微克/立方米,75岁以上老年人的全因死亡率就会增加1.7%(95% C.I.:1.1-2.4%)。基于卫星的测量使我们能够全面调查异质性效应。我们发现,在基线暴露、农村和城市地区、收入以及随着时间的推移,效应大小非常相似,这表明 PM2.5 暴露对死亡率影响的证据具有一致性。最显著的异质性来源于地理因素,在中南部和大都市地区,效应接近 5%。根据对卫星 PM2.5 数据和健康记录的分析,对于 75 岁及以上的智利人来说,细颗粒物(一种空气污染形式)水平的每月增加与全因死亡率的升高始终相关。
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引用次数: 0
Global mantle isotopic anomalies linked to supercontinent-superocean evolution for the past 700 million years 全球地幔同位素异常与过去 7 亿年超大陆-超洋演化有关
IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01627-w
Piero A. B. de Sampaio, Zheng-Xiang Li, Luc S. Doucet
Earth’s mantle isotopic composition is highly heterogeneous, with enriched and depleted regions1–3 shaped by a complex history of depletion and re-enrichment over 4.5 billion years. The spatial configuration of large-scale heterogeneity in the mantle is not random4,5, but the timing and mechanisms that caused such heterogeneity are still debated2,6,7. We compiled radiogenic isotope data of mid-ocean ridge and plume-induced basalts from both present-day and past oceans for the past 900 million years of the relatively isotopically enriched African mantle domain. Our analysis shows that oceanic rocks of the African mantle domain exhibit a relatively homogenous composition similar to the prevalent mantle estimates (PREMA8) until ca. 350 million years ago when plume-derived rocks started becoming isotopically enriched with maximum enrichment reached in the mid-Cretaceous. From that point in time, plume-derived rocks shift toward depletion, getting closer to the prevalent mantle value. The enrichment trend is interpreted to have resulted from the recycling of crustal material during the assembly and the early stage of a break-up of Gondwana and Pangea, whereas the subsequent depletion trend is due to the outward retreat of the subduction girdle during the break-up of Pangea, thus both are legacies of geodynamic processes related to the supercontinent cycle. Geochemical enrichment and depletion patterns in the African mantle domain from the last 900 million years may be attributed to focused recycling of crustal material as part of the supercontinent cycle, supported by isotopic data in palegeographically constrained ophiolitic rocks.
地球地幔的同位素组成具有高度异质性,富集区和贫化区1-3 是由 45 亿年来复杂的贫化和再富集历史形成的。地幔中大规模异质性的空间构造并非随机4,5,但造成这种异质性的时间和机制仍存在争议2,6,7。我们汇编了相对同位素富集的非洲地幔域过去 9 亿年中来自现今和过去海洋的洋中脊和羽状玄武岩的放射性同位素数据。我们的分析表明,非洲地幔域的大洋岩石在大约 3.5 亿年前表现出与盛行地幔估算值(PREMA8)相似的相对单一的成分,直到大约 3.5 亿年前,羽状岩衍生的岩石开始富集同位素,并在白垩纪中期达到最大富集程度。从那时起,羽状岩开始转向贫化,越来越接近地幔的普遍值。据解释,富集趋势是冈瓦纳和潘加大陆组装和解体初期地壳物质循环的结果,而随后的贫化趋势则是潘加大陆解体期间俯冲带向外退缩造成的,因此两者都是与超大陆循环有关的地球动力学过程的遗留物。过去 9 亿年中非洲地幔域的地球化学富集和贫化模式可归因于作为超大陆周期一部分的地壳物质的集中再循环,这一点得到了古地理约束的蛇绿岩同位素数据的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Calcium-rich seawater affects the mechanical properties of echinoderm skeleton 富含钙的海水影响棘皮动物骨骼的机械特性
IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01609-y
Przemysław Gorzelak, Jarosław Stolarski, Paweł Bącal, Philippe Dubois, Dorota Kołbuk
Shifts in the magnesium to calcium ratio of seawater in the geological history are thought to have profoundly affected biomineralization of marine invertebrates, including some echinoderms, which changed their skeletal mineralogy from high-magnesium to low-magnesium calcite and vice versa. Here we report on experiments that aimed to investigate the effect of ambient seawater magnesium to calcium ratio on magnesium to calcium ratio and nanomechanical properties in the spines of two echinoid species (Arbacia lixula and Paracentrotus lividus). We found that echinoids cultured in seawater with a low magnesium to calcium ratio produced a skeleton with lower both magnesium content and nanohardness than those of the control specimens incubated under normal (high) magnesium to calcium ratio conditions. These results may suggest that at certain times in the geological past (during the so-called calcite seas) sea urchins with decreased skeletal magnesium contents were more susceptible to damage due to physical disturbances, predation and post-mortem taphonomic processes. Increased skeletal hardness of echinoids from the so-called aragonite seas is expected to enhance their taphonomic potential, thus, to some extent, mitigates the preservation bias related to increased solubility of high-magnesium calcite. Oceanic chemistry changes have made echinoderm skeletons weaker, making them more prone to damage from physical disturbances, predatory attacks, and taphonomic processes, according to experimental, geochemical, and nanoindentation analyses.
地质历史中海水镁钙比的变化被认为深刻影响了海洋无脊椎动物的生物矿化,包括一些棘皮动物,它们的骨骼矿物学从高镁方解石变为低镁方解石,反之亦然。在此,我们报告了旨在研究环境海水镁钙比对两种棘皮动物(Arbacia lixula 和 Paracentrotus lividus)棘刺中的镁钙比和纳米机械特性的影响的实验。我们发现,与在正常(高)镁钙比条件下培养的对照标本相比,在低镁钙比海水中培养的棘皮动物骨骼的镁含量和纳米硬度都较低。这些结果可能表明,在地质历史的某些时期(所谓的方解石海时期),骨骼镁含量降低的海胆更容易受到物理干扰、捕食和死后岩石学过程的破坏。所谓文石海中的棘皮动物骨骼硬度增加,预计会提高它们的移生潜力,从而在一定程度上减轻与高镁方解石溶解度增加有关的保存偏差。根据实验、地球化学和纳米压痕分析,海洋化学变化使棘皮动物的骨骼变得更脆弱,使它们更容易受到物理干扰、捕食性攻击和移生过程的破坏。
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引用次数: 0
Upwelling-driven high organic production in the late Ediacaran 埃迪卡拉晚期由上升流驱动的高有机物生产
IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01632-z
Fuencisla Cañadas, Dominic Papineau, Thomas J. Algeo, Chao Li
The Ediacaran ocean (635-541 million years ago) is typically viewed as a stagnant, redox-stratified ocean with low phosphorus availability. However, this contradicts the high total organic carbon (up to 15 wt%) recorded in the upper Ediacaran Doushantuo Formation in South China. Here, we present a quantitative reconstruction of primary productivity and sediment total organic carbon using basin-scale simulations based on various redox-nutrient scenarios. Our results indicate that oceanic upwelling was the primary driver of enhanced primary productivity, with estimates over 2.5 times the modern ocean’s average, providing quantitative evidence for oceanic circulation in the Ediacaran Nanhua Basin. Our results also indicate the development of spatially linked but opposing redox trends, i.e., a ‘redox anticouple’, whereby the expansion of the oxic surface layer occurred concurrently with intensification of deep-water anoxia due to enhanced PP in surface and its consumption of oxidants in underlying waters. This model may explain the conflicting redox records across the Nanhua Basin. Our findings explain the unusually high rates of organic matter production and preservation in the low-pO2 Ediacaran ocean and provide a mechanism for its progressive oxygenation. “Increased organic matter production during the late Ediacaran is likely the result of an enhanced rate of primary production caused by a high rate of oceanic upwelling, suggests a basin-scale simulation under different environmental conditions, for the Doushantuo Formation in South China.”
埃迪卡拉海洋(6.35-5.41 亿年前)通常被认为是一个停滞的、氧化还原分层的海洋,磷的供应量很低。然而,这与华南上埃迪卡拉统斗山头组记录的高有机碳总量(高达 15 wt%)相矛盾。在此,我们根据不同的氧化还原-营养情景,利用海盆尺度模拟对初级生产力和沉积物总有机碳进行了定量重建。我们的研究结果表明,海洋上升流是初级生产力提高的主要驱动力,估计值是现代海洋平均值的2.5倍以上,为埃迪卡拉纪南华盆地的海洋环流提供了定量证据。我们的研究结果还表明,氧化还原趋势在空间上相互关联,但又相互对立,即 "氧化还原反耦合",即在缺氧表层扩大的同时,由于表层初级生产力的提高及其对底层水氧化剂的消耗,深水缺氧加剧。这一模式可以解释南华盆地内相互矛盾的氧化还原记录。我们的发现解释了低pO2埃迪卡拉纪海洋异乎寻常的高有机质生成和保存率,并为其逐步富氧提供了一种机制。"埃迪卡拉纪晚期有机质生成的增加很可能是海洋上升流的高速率导致初级生产率提高的结果,这表明在不同环境条件下对华南斗山坨地层进行了盆地尺度的模拟"。
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引用次数: 0
An earthquake-triggered avalanche in Nepal in 2015 was exacerbated by climate variability and snowfall anomalies 气候多变性和降雪异常加剧了 2015 年尼泊尔地震引发的雪崩
IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01624-z
Yu Zhuang, Binod Dawadi, Jakob Steiner, Rajesh Kumar Dash, Yves Bühler, Jessica Munch, Perry Bartelt
On 25 April 2015, the Gorkha earthquake triggered a large rock-ice avalanche and an air blast disaster in the Langtang Valley, Nepal. More than 350 people were killed or left missing. Here we reconstruct the evolution of the Langtang avalanche-air blast using field investigations and numerical modeling and examine the influence of two primary climate-related phenomena: snowfall anomalies and warm temperatures. Our findings suggest a deep snow cover fosters the formation of a dispersed avalanche, which increases the mobility and destructive power of the powder cloud air blast. Elevated air temperatures intensify meltwater production and lubricate the flowing mass. Both mechanisms contributed to the Langtang disaster. Our study underscores the essential impact of snow cover and air temperature on the risk assessment of high-altitude rock-ice avalanches, highlighting how seasonal and climatic variations affect avalanche runout and air blast dynamics. The 2015 Langtang Avalanche in Nepal was exacerbated by deep snow cover and warm temperatures, amplifying the mobility, destructive force, and lubricating effect of melt water on the flowing mass, according to analysis of avalanche runout under various air temperature and snow depth conditions.
2015 年 4 月 25 日,廓尔喀地震在尼泊尔朗唐山谷引发了大面积岩冰雪崩和空爆灾难。超过 350 人遇难或失踪。在此,我们利用实地调查和数值建模重建了朗唐雪崩-气爆的演变过程,并研究了两个主要气候相关现象的影响:降雪异常和气温升高。我们的研究结果表明,深厚的积雪有利于形成分散的雪崩,从而增加了粉云气流的流动性和破坏力。气温升高会加剧融水的产生并润滑流动的雪块。这两种机制都是造成朗唐雪崩的原因。我们的研究强调了积雪覆盖和气温对高海拔岩冰雪崩风险评估的重要影响,突出了季节和气候的变化如何影响雪崩冲出和气爆动力学。根据在不同气温和雪深条件下对雪崩冲出量的分析,尼泊尔2015年的朗唐雪崩因积雪覆盖较深和气温较高而加剧,放大了流动性、破坏力以及融水对流体的润滑作用。
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引用次数: 0
Changes caused by human activities in the high health-risk hot-dry and hot-wet events in China 中国高健康风险干热和湿热事件中人类活动引起的变化
IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01625-y
Haoxin Yao, Liang Zhao, Yiling He, Wei Dong, Xinyong Shen, Jingsong Wang, Yamin Hu, Jian Ling, Ziniu Xiao, Cunrui Huang
Compound heat anomalies associated with humidity, such as compound hot-dry events and hot-wet events, pose greater health risks than single heat anomalies. Here, we utilize ambulance dispatch data along with air temperature and relative humidity to study human impacts on these events in China. We show that relying solely on temperature without considering humidity may underestimate the health risks of these events on populations. Over the past 40 years, anthropogenic activities have increased hot-dry events by 2.34 times and decreased hot-wet events by 0.63 times, especially in the Yangtze River region, compared to natural forcing. We also speculate that, in the future up to 2060, under the carbon-neutral scenario, the frequencies of high health-risk hot-dry events and hot-wet events caused by human activities can be reduced by one-half and over one-fifth, respectively, compared to the high-emissions scenario. These findings provide guidance for assessing health risks under global warming. Over the past 40 years, human activities in China have led to high health-risk compound heat anomalies, especially in the Yangtze River region, which could be reduced by 2060, if carbon-neutral scenarios are implemented, according to analysis of the ambulance dispatch data, air temperature, and relative humidity.
与湿度相关的复合热异常,如复合干热事件和湿热事件,比单一热异常带来更大的健康风险。在这里,我们利用救护车调度数据以及空气温度和相对湿度来研究中国这些事件对人类的影响。我们的研究表明,仅仅依靠温度而不考虑湿度可能会低估这些事件对人群健康的危害。与自然因素相比,在过去 40 年中,人为活动使干热事件增加了 2.34 倍,湿热事件减少了 0.63 倍,尤其是在长江地区。我们还推测,未来到 2060 年,在碳中和情景下,与高排放情景相比,人类活动导致的高健康风险干热事件和湿热事件的频率可分别减少二分之一和五分之一以上。这些发现为评估全球变暖下的健康风险提供了指导。根据对救护车调度数据、气温和相对湿度的分析,在过去的40年中,中国的人类活动导致了高健康风险的复合热异常,尤其是在长江地区。
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引用次数: 0
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Communications Earth & Environment
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