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Reconciling National and Regional Estimates of the Effect of Immigration on U.S. Labor Markets: The Confounding Effects of Native Male Incarceration Trends 调和移民对美国劳动力市场影响的国家和地区估计:本土男性监禁趋势的混淆效应
Pub Date : 2008-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1248290
S. Raphael, L. Ronconi
In this paper, we reconcile the disparity between regional and national level estimates of the effect of immigration on native earnings. The reconciliation derives from the fact that existing national level studies fail to adequately control for changes in other determinants of the wage structure that correspond closely with the skill distribution of immigrant shocks. We focus specifically on the effect of accounting for incarceration trends. Over the past thirty years, an increasing proportion of low skilled native workers have served time in prison, a development that has arguably harmed their employment prospects. We show that the fraction of a given education-experience group that is immigrant is strongly correlated with the fraction of native born workers in the demographic group that is institutionalized. Holding constant incarceration trends considerably diminishes the estimated magnitude of the reduced-form relationship between native labor market outcomes and the fraction in their skill cell that is immigrant.An alternative interpretation of these findings offered by Borjas, Grogger, and Hansen (2006) is that immigration-induced wage declines have pushed more men into criminal activity which, in turn, has increased the incarceration rate. The authors present a model whereby the reduced form effect of immigration on incarceration reflects the product of (1) the effect of immigration on wages and (2) the elasticity of labor demand in the crime sector. The latter elasticity gauges the extent to which the local crime market is able to absorb additional offenders as the quality of legitimate work opportunities (as measured by wages) diminishes. While national level correlations presented by the authors are consistent with this interpretation, we show that the state level results are not. Despite a sizable and statistically significant negative reduced-form effect of immigrant penetration on wages in state-level panel regressions, there is no statistically significant relationship between state-level immigrant shocks and state-level incarceration rates - i.e., despite an identifiable dose to state-level wages, there is no incarceration response. Estimates of the elasticity of demand in the criminal sector using both the original state-level estimates presented in Borjas, Grogger, and Hansen (2006) as well as our replication and simple alternative specification of these regressions are essentially zero. Thus, we conclude that immigration has had no impact on criminal activity among natives operating through labor market competition.
在本文中,我们调和了地区和国家层面对移民对本地收入影响的估计之间的差异。这种协调源于这样一个事实,即现有的国家一级研究未能充分控制与移民冲击的技能分布密切相关的工资结构的其他决定因素的变化。我们特别关注监禁趋势的影响。在过去的三十年里,越来越多的低技能本地工人在监狱服刑,这种发展可以说损害了他们的就业前景。我们表明,一个特定的教育经历群体中移民的比例与制度化人口群体中本土出生工人的比例密切相关。保持恒定的监禁趋势大大降低了本地劳动力市场结果与他们的技能单元中移民比例之间的减少形式关系的估计幅度。Borjas、Grogger和Hansen(2006)对这些发现提出了另一种解释,即移民导致的工资下降迫使更多的男性从事犯罪活动,这反过来又增加了监狱率。作者提出了一个模型,根据该模型,移民对监禁的减少形式效应反映了(1)移民对工资的影响和(2)犯罪部门劳动力需求弹性的产物。后一种弹性衡量的是,随着合法工作机会(以工资衡量)的质量下降,当地犯罪市场能够吸收更多罪犯的程度。虽然作者提出的国家层面的相关性与这种解释一致,但我们表明,州一级的结果并非如此。尽管在州级面板回归中,移民渗透对工资有相当大的、统计上显着的负减量效应,但州级移民冲击与州级监禁率之间没有统计上显着的关系——即,尽管对州级工资有可识别的剂量,但没有监禁率反应。使用Borjas、Grogger和Hansen(2006)提出的原始州一级估计,以及我们对这些回归的复制和简单替代说明,对犯罪部门需求弹性的估计基本上为零。因此,我们得出结论,移民对通过劳动力市场竞争运作的本地人的犯罪活动没有影响。
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引用次数: 30
Statistical Matching Using Propensity Scores: Theory and Application to the Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being 使用倾向分数的统计匹配:理论及其在利维研究所经济福利测量中的应用
Pub Date : 2008-05-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1136363
Hyunsub Kum, Thomas Masterson
This paper summarizes the background, type, logic, and working procedure of the statistical matching used in the Levy Institute Measure of Economic Wellbeing (LIMEW) project to combine the various data sets used to produce the synthetic data set with which the LIMEW is constructed. We use the match between the 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances and Annual Demographic Survey of Current Population Survey data sets to demonstrate the procedure and results of the matching. Challenges facing the use of this technique, such as the distribution of weights, are discussed in the conclusion.
本文总结了利维研究所经济福利测量(LIMEW)项目中使用的统计匹配的背景、类型、逻辑和工作程序,将用于生成构建LIMEW的综合数据集的各种数据集结合起来。我们以二零零一年消费者财务调查与现时人口调查数据集的年度人口统计调查的配对为例,说明配对的程序和结果。在结论中讨论了使用该技术所面临的挑战,例如权重的分布。
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引用次数: 16
Tamil Nadu and the Diagonal Divide in Sex Ratios 泰米尔纳德邦和性别比例的对角线鸿沟
Pub Date : 2008-05-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1128304
S. Srinivasan, A. Bedi
Between 1961 and 2001, India's 0-6 sex ratio has steadily declined. Despite evidence to the contrary, there is a tendency to characterize this ratio in terms of a diagonal divide with low 0-6 sex ratios in northern and western India and for the most part, normal 0-6 sex ratios in eastern and southern India. While unexpectedly high rates of female infant mortality have been reported in Tamil Nadu, it is still regarded as lying outside the ambit of states with unusually low 0-6 sex ratios. Based on an analysis of temporal and spatial patterns in sex ratio at birth, infant mortality rates and under 5 mortality rates for Tamil Nadu, this paper traces the development of daughter deficit in the state and examines the validity of the diagonal divide in sex ratios across India. We find evidence of daughter deficit in more than half the state's districts with a majority of the shortfall arising before birth, potentially due to sex selective abortion as compared to after birth due to female infanticide. The evidence presented here, combined with earlier work on declining 0-6 sex ratios outside north-western India, suggests that the diagonal divide is no longer an appropriate distinction.
从1961年到2001年,印度的男女比例一直在稳步下降。尽管有相反的证据,但有一种趋势是,印度北部和西部的男女比例为低0-6,而印度东部和南部的大部分地区的男女比例为正常0-6。尽管据报道,泰米尔纳德邦的女婴死亡率出乎意料地高,但它仍然被认为是在0-6性别比例异常低的邦之外。基于对泰米尔纳德邦出生性比例、婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率的时空格局分析,本文追溯了该邦女儿不足的发展,并检验了印度各地性别比例对角线划分的有效性。我们发现该州一半以上的地区都存在女儿不足的证据,其中大部分是在出生前出现的,可能是由于性别选择性堕胎,而不是出生后因杀女婴而造成的。本文提供的证据,加上印度西北部以外地区关于男女比例下降的早期研究,表明对角线划分不再是一种合适的区分。
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引用次数: 15
The Spanish Survey of Household Finances (EFF): Description and Methods of the 2005 Wave 西班牙家庭财务调查(EFF): 2005年浪潮的描述和方法
Pub Date : 2008-05-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1129146
O. Bover
This paper describes the methods of the second wave of the Spanish Survey of Household Finances (EFF2005), paying special attention to the innovations relative to the first wave. The EFF2005 was designed to give continuity to the information on household finances collected through the EFF2002. The EFF is the only statistical source in Spain that allows the linking of incomes, assets, debts, and consumption at the household level. A desirable characteristic present in both waves is the oversampling of wealthy households. This is achieved on the basis of the wealth tax through a blind system of collaboration between the National Statistics Institute and the Tax Office which preserves stringent tax confidentiality. An additional important characteristic of the EFF is that the second wave has a full panel component. Further, a refreshment sample by wealth stratum has been incorporated to preserve cross-sectional representativity and overall sample size.
本文描述了第二波西班牙家庭财务调查(EFF2005)的方法,特别关注相对于第一波的创新。2005年家庭财务调查旨在使2002年家庭财务调查收集的家庭财务信息保持连续性。EFF是西班牙唯一一个可以将家庭收入、资产、债务和消费联系起来的统计来源。这两波调查都有一个令人满意的特点,那就是对富裕家庭的过度抽样。这是在财富税的基础上通过国家统计研究所和税务局之间的盲目合作系统实现的,该系统严格保护税务机密。EFF的另一个重要特征是第二波具有完整的面板组件。此外,还纳入了财富阶层的茶点样本,以保持横截面代表性和总体样本量。
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引用次数: 82
Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise: Socioeconomic Status, Poor Health in Childhood, and Human Capital Development 健康、富裕和明智:社会经济地位、儿童健康状况不佳和人力资本发展
Pub Date : 2008-05-01 DOI: 10.1257/JEL.47.1.87
J. Currie
There are many possible pathways between parental education, income, and health, and between child health and education, but only some of them have been explored in the literature. This essay focuses on links between parental socioeconomic status (as measured by education, income, occupation, or in some cases area of residence) and child health, and between child health and adult education or income. Specifically, I ask two questions: What is the evidence regarding whether parental socioeconomic status affects child health? And, what is the evidence relating child health to future educational and labor market outcomes? I show that there is now strong evidence of both links, suggesting that health could play a role in the intergenerational transmission of economic status.
父母教育、收入和健康之间以及儿童健康和教育之间存在许多可能的途径,但文献中只探讨了其中的一些途径。本文着重于父母的社会经济地位(以教育、收入、职业或在某些情况下的居住地区来衡量)与儿童健康之间的联系,以及儿童健康与成人教育或收入之间的联系。具体来说,我提出了两个问题:关于父母的社会经济地位是否影响儿童健康的证据是什么?还有,有什么证据表明儿童健康与未来的教育和劳动力市场结果有关?我表明,现在有强有力的证据表明这两种联系,表明健康可能在经济地位的代际传递中发挥作用。
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引用次数: 1481
U.S. Income Inequality and Income Mobility in the 1980s and 1990s 20世纪80年代和90年代的美国收入不平等和收入流动性
Pub Date : 2008-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1133076
T. Hungerford
Income inequality has been increasing in the United States over the past 25 years. Many argue that rising inequality is not a serious issue because income or social mobility reduces inequality and increases well-being. These observers point to studies showing considerable upward mobility. This study examines income mobility and its relation to income inequality. The results show that while there is considerable income mobility, it is generally not far - rags to riches success stories are fairly rare. Furthermore, income mobility has a disequalizing effect on annual income inequality, but has a small equalizing effect on inequality of longer-term incomes.
在过去的25年里,美国的收入不平等一直在加剧。许多人认为,不平等加剧不是一个严重的问题,因为收入或社会流动性会减少不平等,提高幸福感。这些观察人士指出,研究显示出相当大的向上流动性。本研究考察了收入流动性及其与收入不平等的关系。调查结果显示,尽管存在相当大的收入流动性,但通常并不遥远——白手起家的成功故事相当罕见。此外,收入流动性对年度收入不平等具有不平衡效应,但对长期收入不平等具有较小的平衡效应。
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引用次数: 1
Intergenerational Earnings Mobility in Singapore and the United States 新加坡和美国的代际收入流动
Pub Date : 2008-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1127128
Irene Y. H. Ng, Xiaoyi Shen, K. Ho
This study compared intergenerational earnings mobility in Singapore and the United States by replicating the limitations in the Singapore National Youth Survey on the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The mean estimated earnings elasticities are almost identical: 0.26 in Singapore and 0.27 in the United States. Transformed to 0.45 and 0.47 respectively to reflect permanent status, mobility in the two countries is moderately low compared internationally. The finding of similar mobility is not surprising given that the economic realities, welfare systems, education regimes, and labor structures in the two countries are similar. Policy makers face the daunting challenge of overcoming immobility and inequality while maintaining global competitiveness.
本研究通过复制新加坡全国青年调查在美国收入动态小组研究中的局限性,比较了新加坡和美国的代际收入流动性。平均估计收入弹性几乎相同:新加坡为0.26,美国为0.27。为了反映永久地位,这两个国家的流动性分别转化为0.45和0.47,与国际上相比,这两个国家的流动性相对较低。考虑到两国的经济现实、福利制度、教育制度和劳动力结构相似,类似的流动性发现并不令人惊讶。政策制定者面临着在保持全球竞争力的同时克服不流动性和不平等的艰巨挑战。
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引用次数: 42
Obesity and Developmental Functioning Among Children Aged 2-4 Years 2-4岁儿童肥胖与发育功能
Pub Date : 2008-04-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1126593
J. Cawley, C. Spieß
In developed countries, obesity tends to be associated with worse labor market outcomes. One possible reason is that obesity leads to less human capital formation early in life. This paper investigates the association between obesity and the developmental functioning of children at younger ages (2-4 years) than ever previously examined. Data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study are used to estimate models of developmental functioning in four critical areas (verbal skills, activities of daily living, motor skills, and social skills) as a function of various measures of weight (including BMI and obesity status) controlling for various child and family characteristics. The findings indicate that, among boys, obesity is a significant risk factor for lagged development in verbal skills, social skills, and activities of daily living. Among girls, weight generally does not have a statistically significant association with these developmental outcomes. Further investigations show that the correlations exist even for those preschool children who spend no time in day care, which implies that the correlation between obesity and developmental functioning cannot be due to discrimination by teachers, classmates, or even day care providers.
在发达国家,肥胖往往与较差的劳动力市场结果有关。一个可能的原因是,肥胖导致生命早期人力资本形成较少。这篇论文调查了肥胖和儿童发育功能之间的关系,在更小的年龄(2-4岁)比以往任何时候都检查。来自德国社会经济小组研究的数据被用来估计四个关键领域(语言技能、日常生活活动、运动技能和社交技能)的发育功能模型,作为控制各种儿童和家庭特征的各种体重测量(包括BMI和肥胖状况)的函数。研究结果表明,在男孩中,肥胖是语言技能、社交技能和日常生活活动发展滞后的重要风险因素。在女孩中,体重通常与这些发育结果没有统计学上的显著关联。进一步的调查表明,即使是那些没有上日托的学龄前儿童也存在这种相关性,这意味着肥胖和发育功能之间的相关性不可能是由于老师、同学甚至日托提供者的歧视。
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引用次数: 9
Limited Insurance within the Household: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Kenya 家庭内有限保险:来自肯尼亚实地试验的证据
Pub Date : 2008-04-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1282231
Jonathan Robinson
This paper presents results from a randomized field experiment to test for the importance of limited commitment (due to incomplete contract enforceability) in explaining intra-household risk sharing arrangements in Kenya. The experiment followed 142 daily income earners and their spouses for 8 weeks. Every week, each individual had a 50% chance of receiving a 150 Kenyan shilling (US $2) income shock (equivalent to about 1.5 days' income for men and 1 week's income for women). This paper has 2 main results. First, since the experimental payments are random, they allow for a direct test of allocative Pareto efficiency. I reject efficiency, as male private goods expenditures are sensitive to the receipt of the payment. Second, the experiment varied the level of intra-household correlation in the experimental payments between couples. I find that women send bigger transfers to their husbands when shocks are independent or negatively correlated, a result consistent with the presence of limited commitment. I find no difference in transfers for men, likely because the shocks were too small to cause the limited commitment constraint to bind for them.
本文提出了一项随机现场实验的结果,以检验有限承诺(由于不完全的合同可执行性)在解释肯尼亚家庭内部风险分担安排中的重要性。这项实验对142名日薪工作者及其配偶进行了为期8周的跟踪调查。每个人每周有50%的机会受到150肯尼亚先令(2美元)的收入冲击(相当于男性1.5天的收入和女性1周的收入)。本文有两个主要结论。首先,由于实验支付是随机的,它们允许对分配帕累托效率进行直接测试。我拒绝效率,因为男性私人物品的支出对收到付款很敏感。其次,实验改变了夫妻之间实验支付的家庭内部相关水平。我发现,当冲击是独立的或负相关的时候,女性给丈夫的转账数额更大,这与有限承诺的存在是一致的。我发现男性的转移没有差异,可能是因为冲击太小,不足以使有限的承诺约束对他们产生约束。
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引用次数: 119
The Preadult Origins of Post-Materialism: A Longitudinal Sibling Study 后物质主义的成年前起源:一项纵向兄弟姐妹研究
Pub Date : 2008-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1128182
M. Kroh
Using a research design that traces siblings' preferences for postmaterialistic values in Germany over two decades, this paper provides new evidence on the origins of value preferences. Focusing on Inglehart's thesis of value change, we test the combined socialization and scarcity hypothesis against the social learning hypothesis, a prominent rival account of preadult value preference formation. Sibling estimates show that the shared preadult environment does indeed exert lasting effects on the permanent component of preferences for post-materialistic policies. In addition to weak effect of the shared experience of socioeconomic scarcity, we find that the intergenerational transmission of postmaterialism - which is disregarded by Inglehart's original thesis - plays a significant role in value preference acquisition. We discuss the implications of our individual-level findings for forecasts of aggregate-level trends in value change.
本文采用一项研究设计,追踪了德国兄弟姐妹二十年来对后物质主义价值观的偏好,为价值偏好的起源提供了新的证据。以Inglehart的价值变化理论为中心,我们检验了社会化和稀缺性的结合假说与社会学习假说的对比,后者是关于成年前价值偏好形成的一个重要的竞争性假说。兄弟姐妹的估计表明,共同的成年前环境确实对后物质主义政策偏好的永久组成部分产生了持久的影响。除了社会经济稀缺性的共同经验的微弱影响外,我们发现后唯物主义的代际传递在价值偏好获得中起着重要作用,而这一点被Inglehart的原始论文所忽视。我们讨论了我们的个人水平的发现对价值变化的总体水平趋势预测的影响。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family
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