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The Global Financial Crisis: Understanding the Global Trade Downturn and Recovery 全球金融危机:理解全球贸易下滑与复苏
Pub Date : 2011-05-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2011.01351.x
R. Anderton, Tadios Tewolde
This paper aims to shed light on why the downturn in global trade during the intensification of the financial crisis in 2008Q4–2009Q1 was so severe and synchronised across the world and also examines the subsequent recovery in global trade during 2009Q2–2010Q1. The paper finds that a structural imports function which captures the different and time‐varying import‐intensities of the components of total final expenditure – consumption, investment, government expenditure, exports, etc. – can explain the sharp decline in global imports of goods and services. By contrast, a specification based on aggregate total expenditure cannot fully capture the global trade downturn. In particular, panel estimates for a large number of OECD countries based on the individual components of expenditure suggest that the high import‐intensity of exports at the country‐level can explain a significant proportion of the decline in world imports during the crisis, while declines in the highly import‐intensive expenditure category of investment also contributed to the remaining fall in global trade. At the same time, the high and rising import‐intensity of exports also reflects and captures the rapid growth in ‘vertical specialisation’, suggesting that widespread global production chains may have amplified the downturn in world trade and partly explains its high degree of synchronisation across the globe. In addition, the estimates find that stockbuilding, business confidence and credit conditions also played a role in the global trade downturn. Meanwhile, the global trade recovery (2009Q2–2010Q1) can only be partially explained by differential elasticities for the components of demand (although the results confirm that the upturn in OECD imports was also driven by strong export growth and the reactivation of global production chains, as well as the recovery in stockbuilding and the fiscal stimulus). This may be in part because of the many policy measures that were implemented to boost global trade at that time and which cannot be captured by the specification. The paper is also a pseudo‐real‐time robustness test of the specification in that the first analysis of the global trade downturn is based on the data available at the time (i.e. October 2009 vintage), while an updated analysis of the global downturn as well as the trade upturn is based on a more recent dataset (i.e. October 2010 vintage). The results for the global downturn remain robust regardless of which vintage of the dataset is used.
本文旨在阐明为什么在2008年第四季度- 2009年第一季度金融危机加剧期间全球贸易的低迷如此严重,并且在全球范围内同步,并研究了2009年第二季度- 2010年第一季度随后全球贸易的复苏。本文发现,结构性进口函数捕捉了最终总支出(消费、投资、政府支出、出口等)组成部分的不同和随时间变化的进口强度,可以解释全球商品和服务进口的急剧下降。相比之下,基于总支出的指标不能完全反映全球贸易低迷。特别是,小组根据支出的个别组成部分对大量经合组织国家的估计表明,国家一级出口的高进口强度可以解释危机期间世界进口下降的很大一部分,而投资的高进口密集型支出类别的下降也导致了全球贸易的剩余下降。与此同时,出口的高且不断上升的进口强度也反映并抓住了“垂直专业化”的快速增长,这表明广泛的全球生产链可能加剧了世界贸易的低迷,并在一定程度上解释了其在全球范围内的高度同步。此外,估计发现,库存建设、商业信心和信贷状况也在全球贸易低迷中发挥了作用。与此同时,全球贸易复苏(2009年第二季度至2010年第一季度)只能部分地用需求组成部分的差异弹性来解释(尽管结果证实,经合组织进口的回升也受到强劲的出口增长和全球生产链的重新激活,以及库存建设和财政刺激的复苏的推动)。部分原因可能是当时为促进全球贸易而实施了许多政策措施,而这些政策措施无法在规范中体现出来。本文也是对规范的伪实时稳健性测试,因为对全球贸易衰退的第一次分析是基于当时可用的数据(即2009年10月的年份),而对全球经济衰退和贸易好转的最新分析是基于最近的数据集(即2010年10月的年份)。无论使用哪个年份的数据集,全球经济衰退的结果都是稳健的。
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引用次数: 17
Catching‐Up and Technological Progress of the ASEAN Economies 东盟经济体的赶超与技术进步
Pub Date : 2011-05-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2011.00545.x
Young Hoon Lee, M. Cheng
Total factor productivity growth of the five ASEAN founding members is estimated by decomposing total factor productivity growth into technical efficiency and technological progress. By using the stochastic frontier model with individual‐specific temporal pattern of technical efficiency for the period of 1981–2003, the present paper identifies the unique temporal pattern of productivity changes in each country, to analyze the relationship between country characteristics and the inherent efficiency and productivity changes. The empirical results indicate that over the study period, growth in Singapore and Malaysia was largely driven by both technological progress and input accumulation, whereas growth in Thailand was induced by an improvement in technical efficiency and through input accumulation.
通过将全要素生产率增长分解为技术效率和技术进步,对东盟五国的全要素生产率增长进行了估算。本文利用1981-2003年技术效率个体特征时间格局的随机前沿模型,识别了各国生产率变化的独特时间格局,分析了各国特征与内在效率和生产率变化的关系。实证结果表明,在研究期间,新加坡和马来西亚的增长主要是由技术进步和投入积累共同驱动的,而泰国的增长则是由技术效率的提高和投入积累共同驱动的。
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引用次数: 8
Drivers and Impacts in the Globalization of Corporate R&D: An Introduction Based on the European Experience 企业研发全球化的驱动因素与影响:基于欧洲经验的介绍
Pub Date : 2011-03-28 DOI: 10.1093/ICC/DTR005
P. Moncada-Paternò-Castello, M. Vivarelli, P. Voigt
The globalization of R&D activities has continued its growth path as companies are increasingly trying to capture knowledge and market opportunities internationally. The rapid evolution of national economies and the ways to conduct knowledge-intensive businesses has led researchers and analysts to pursue a deeper understanding of the globalization of corporate R&D and the related driving factors and impacts. This introduction to the Special Section: "Globalization and Corporate R&D" forthcoming in Industrial and Corporate Change (vol. 20 (2), April 2011) provides an update of trends in the globalization of corporate R&D. It reviews the literature on the main drivers and impacts of the process under investigation, introduces the papers for this Special Section, and offers some concluding remarks.
随着公司越来越多地试图在国际上获取知识和市场机会,研发活动的全球化继续发展。国家经济的快速发展和知识密集型企业的经营方式促使研究人员和分析人员对企业研发的全球化及其相关驱动因素和影响有更深入的了解。《工业与企业变革》(2011年4月第20卷第2期)即将出版的“全球化与企业研发”专题介绍提供了企业研发全球化趋势的最新情况。它回顾了关于所调查过程的主要驱动因素和影响的文献,介绍了本专题的论文,并提供了一些结束语。
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引用次数: 94
Towards an Efficient and Low-Carbon Economy Post-2012: Opportunities and Barriers for Foreign Companies in the Russian Market 迈向2012年后的高效低碳经济:外国公司在俄罗斯市场的机遇与障碍
Pub Date : 2011-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1892825
Maria Garbuzova-Schlifter, R. Madlener
Russia is one of the most energy- and carbon-intensive countries in the world. The high level of technical abrasion and a low level of investments into modernization of the Russian energy industry cause huge energy wastage and carbon emissions. This situation is regarded by countries relying on energy imports from Russia as an increasing threat to security of supply and as a major barrier to global climate change policy. This paper provides an overview of the current and future Russian energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation policies. The focus is laid on the detailed investigation of the progress and future potential of the market-oriented mechanisms Joint Implementation (JI) and Green Investment Scheme (GIS), being considered as two possible channels for FDI in transnational energy efficiency and carbon mitigation projects. The analysis was conducted by reviewing the relevant scientific and non-scientific literature including a variety of theoretical and practice-oriented arguments. Based on this assessment, we conclude that JI and GIS are confronted with numerous barriers in the Russian energy market. We further scrutinize the ability of Energy Service Companies (ESCOs), as one of the market intermediary models, to overcome some of these barriers in the process of effectively integrating JI and GIS in their long-term business strategies. Due to the compatibility of the main features of JI and GIS with the working procedures under the ESCO model we conclude that numerous synergy effects can be generated and that the majority of transaction barriers specific for the Russian energy market can be overcome. Such an integrative framework for international energy efficiency and carbon mitigation projects would contribute to the modernization of the Russian energy industry and enable a “win-win” situation for foreign companies seeking to invest in a sustainable manner.
俄罗斯是世界上能源和碳密集度最高的国家之一。俄罗斯能源工业现代化的高水平技术磨损和低水平投资造成了巨大的能源浪费和碳排放。依赖从俄罗斯进口能源的国家认为,这种情况对供应安全构成越来越大的威胁,也是全球气候变化政策的主要障碍。本文概述了俄罗斯当前和未来的能源效率和温室气体减缓政策。重点是详细调查市场导向机制的进展和未来潜力,联合实施(JI)和绿色投资计划(GIS)被认为是跨国能源效率和碳减排项目中外国直接投资的两个可能渠道。分析是通过回顾相关的科学和非科学文献进行的,包括各种理论和实践导向的论点。基于这一评估,我们得出结论,JI和GIS在俄罗斯能源市场面临许多障碍。我们进一步审视能源服务公司(esco)作为市场中介模式之一,在将JI和GIS有效整合到其长期业务战略的过程中克服其中一些障碍的能力。由于JI和GIS的主要特征与ESCO模型下的工作程序的兼容性,我们得出结论,可以产生许多协同效应,并且可以克服俄罗斯能源市场特有的大多数交易障碍。这样一个国际能源效率和碳减排项目的综合框架将有助于俄罗斯能源工业的现代化,并使寻求以可持续方式投资的外国公司能够实现"双赢"局面。
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引用次数: 100
Return Rates of WIG20 Index in the Situation of Extreme Tide Turning on the Warsaw Stock Exchange 华沙证券交易所极端行情下WIG20指数的收益率
Pub Date : 2010-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1728991
Krzysztof Piasecki, Edyta Tomasik
In the paper the authors presented analysis of fitting the following distributions: normal, t-Student, α-stable, hyperbolic, generalized hyperbolic, normal inverse Gaussian, generalized hyperbolic t-Student and general error distribution to the empirical series of WIG20 returns in the situation of extreme tide turning on the WSE. There were analysed daily logarithmic rates of returns of WIG20 index quoted on the WSE in two periods: the period of intensive rising trend 17 May 2005-05 July 2007 and the period of intensive declining trend 06 July 2007-17 February 2009. The results of the study show that the characteristics of real rates of returns art the best reflected by the same distributions in the both analysed periods. The best fitted distributions belong to the family of generalized hyperbolic distributions.
本文分析了WSE极端潮汐转向情况下WIG20收益经验序列的正态分布、t-Student分布、α-stable分布、双曲分布、广义双曲分布、正态逆高斯分布、广义双曲t-Student分布和一般误差分布的拟合。分析了WSE上引用的WIG20指数在两个时期的日对数收益率:2005年5月17日至2007年7月5日的密集上升趋势时期和2007年7月6日至2009年2月17日的密集下降趋势时期。研究结果表明,在两个分析时期,相同的分布最能反映实际收益率的特征。最佳拟合分布属于广义双曲分布族。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of Agricultural Subsidies on US Exports to Mexico and Canada: Case Study of Selected Agricultural Products 农业补贴对美国对墨西哥和加拿大出口的影响:选定农产品的案例研究
Pub Date : 2010-12-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1722049
A. Bakay
This paper addresses the question of how agricultural subsidies influence the US exports of six agricultural products to Canada and Mexico. Time span is from 1996 to 2005. The dollar values of export data of six agricultural products - corn, wheat, cotton, rice, barley, grain sorghum - are pulled from United States Department of Agriculture. Therefore, amount of subsidies paid for each crop in each year throughout the time period are gathered from the Environmental Working Group. US agricultural raw material exports as percentage of total merchandise exports (USAGREX), GDP, GDP per capita, population variables are obtained from World Development Indicators database and IMF. Utilizing these variables, regression analysis was conducted resulting in the followings: Subsidy is positively and significantly associated with exports. Every one percent increase in the subsidy leads to approximately 0.8 percent increase in the exports. One percent increase in USAGREX will increase exports approximately 1.6 percent. GDP of US is negatively, GDP of other countries positively impacting exports however they economically do not imply significance. GDP per capita and population variables are of no relevance.
本文探讨了农业补贴如何影响美国对加拿大和墨西哥的六种农产品出口。时间跨度从1996年到2005年。六种农产品(玉米、小麦、棉花、大米、大麦、谷物高粱)出口数据的美元价值摘自美国农业部。因此,在整个时期内,每年为每种作物支付的补贴金额是从环境工作组收集的。美国农业原材料出口占商品出口总额的百分比(USAGREX), GDP,人均GDP,人口变量来自世界发展指标数据库和国际货币基金组织。利用这些变量进行回归分析,结果表明:补贴与出口呈显著正相关。补贴每增加1%,出口就会增加0.8%左右。USAGREX增加1%将使出口增加约1.6%。美国的GDP是负的,其他国家的GDP对出口有积极影响,但在经济上并不意味着重要。人均GDP和人口变量没有相关性。
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引用次数: 2
IMF Lending in Low-And Middle-Income Countries in the Wake of the Global Crisis 国际货币基金组织在全球危机后对中低收入国家的贷款
Pub Date : 2010-11-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1805005
A. Presbitero, A. Zazzaro
In the wake of the global crisis the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased its exposure to low- and middle-income countries and boosted the overhaul of its lending approach to enhance its role in preventing crises. This paper tests whether IMF lending has targeted countries most affected by the crisis in order to dampen contagion effects and assesses to what extent the Fund's strategy has been driven by political-economy interests of its major shareholders. Results show that political similarity between borrowers and G7 governments has influenced the participation in IMF pro-grams, especially where the crisis was severe. In addition, the extent of the crisis and the economic interest of Western countries have affected the size of the loan.
在全球危机之后,国际货币基金组织(IMF)增加了对低收入和中等收入国家的敞口,并加快了对其贷款方式的改革,以加强其在预防危机方面的作用。本文检验了国际货币基金组织的贷款是否针对受危机影响最严重的国家,以抑制传染效应,并评估了基金组织的战略在多大程度上受到其主要股东的政治经济利益的驱动。结果显示,借款国与七国集团政府之间的政治相似性影响了它们对IMF项目的参与,尤其是在危机严重的国家。此外,危机的严重程度和西方国家的经济利益也影响了贷款的规模。
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引用次数: 3
India's Recent Infrastructure Development Initiatives: A Comparative Analysis of South and Southeast Asia 印度最近的基础设施发展倡议:南亚和东南亚的比较分析
Pub Date : 2010-06-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1624466
A. Bhattacharyya, D. Chakraborty
Since the early 1990s, the number of Regional Trade Agreements has increased considerably across continents. This is resulting into increasing regional integration with substantial importance being given to cross-border connectivity development. India, a late subscriber of active RTA strategy, is enthusiastically venturing into cross-border connectivity exercises to enhance its trade integration with the neighbouring countries in recent period. Developing cross-border connectivity is currently receiving salience in the regional forums like SAARC, though limited progress has been made so far. In contrast, ASEAN is the only forum in Asia where substantial progress in integration through cross-border infrastructure augmentation has been witnessed. India has recently entered into FTA with ASEAN and is involved in several infrastructure augmentation projects in several ASEAN member countries. Given this background, the current paper seeks to analyze the Indian infrastructure development initiatives in the immediate and Southeastern neighborhood. The discussion covers the SAARC and ASEAN initiatives towards building physical infrastructure, as well as the recent aid for trade initiatives being undertaken in South and Southeast Asia. The paper concludes by drawing the lessons for SAARC members from the ASEAN experience.
自20世纪90年代初以来,各大洲的区域贸易协定数量大幅增加。这导致了区域一体化的增加,跨境互联互通的发展得到了极大的重视。印度是积极区域贸易协定战略的后来者,最近一段时间,印度正积极开展跨境互联互通活动,以加强与邻国的贸易一体化。发展跨境互联互通目前在南盟等区域论坛上受到重视,尽管迄今为止进展有限。相比之下,东盟是亚洲唯一一个通过扩大跨境基础设施在一体化方面取得实质性进展的论坛。印度最近与东盟签订了自由贸易协定,并参与了几个东盟成员国的基础设施扩建项目。在此背景下,本文试图分析印度在邻近地区和东南部地区的基础设施发展举措。讨论内容包括南盟和东盟关于建设有形基础设施的倡议,以及最近在南亚和东南亚开展的贸易援助倡议。文章最后从东盟的经验中总结了南盟成员国的经验教训。
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引用次数: 3
Trade Liberalization or Oil Shocks: Which Better Explains Structural Breaks in International Trade Ratios? 贸易自由化还是石油冲击:哪个能更好地解释国际贸易比率的结构性断裂?
Pub Date : 2010-04-12 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2010.00852.x
Suleiman Abu-Bader, Aamer S. Abu-Qarn
Ben-David and Papell's (1997) tests for structural breaks in trade ratios over the postwar period revealed that trade ratios exhibited structural breaks in their paths and that postbreak trade averages exceeded prebreak averages. They attributed these breaks to trade liberalization measures carried out during this period. We re-evaluate their results and find that for most countries the averages of actual postbreak ratios were below the averages of the extrapolated prebreak ratios and that a large share of the breaks coincided with the 1970s oil shocks. This would suggest that the oil shocks rather than trade liberalization may account for the breaks.
Ben-David和Papell(1997)对战后贸易比率的结构性断裂的检验表明,贸易比率在其路径上表现出结构性断裂,断裂后的贸易平均值超过了断裂前的平均值。他们将这些中断归因于这一时期实施的贸易自由化措施。我们重新评估了他们的结果,发现对大多数国家来说,实际破产后比率的平均值低于外推破产前比率的平均值,而且很大一部分破产与20世纪70年代的石油危机同时发生。这将表明,油价冲击而不是贸易自由化可能是造成这些中断的原因。
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引用次数: 5
Coping with the Social Costs of 'Transition': Everyday Life in Post-Soviet Russia and Ukraine 应对“转型”的社会成本:后苏联时代俄罗斯和乌克兰的日常生活
Pub Date : 2010-03-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2289927
J. Round, C. Williams
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, many Russian and Ukrainian households have experienced periods of economic marginalization. The role of this paper is to examine these social costs of transition, noting that official reporting underestimates the true scale of the problem, and the household responses to these costs.The discussions are based on both qualitative and quantitative research undertaken in numerous locations in Russia and Ukraine. One of the paper’s key arguments is that informal economic practices are crucial to many households and that a broad spectrum of coping tactics is employed.These tactics often reveal the unequal power relations that run through state – society and worker – employee relations and help detail the high levels of corruption that exist in post-Soviet societies. Furthermore, these tactics are entwined in the locations within which they take place and rely on high levels of social capital, ensuring that households would rather remain in their current location than migrate to cheaper regions.The paper concludes on a rather pessimistic note, arguing that, although Russian and Ukrainian households have ‘coped’ over the 20 years since the beginning of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the future poses new challenges.These include an ageing population, the increasing use of credit (default on which can lead to eviction) and the global recession, which leads to a decrease in opportunities in the informal sphere.
自苏联解体以来,许多俄罗斯和乌克兰家庭经历了经济边缘化时期。本文的作用是研究转型的社会成本,指出官方报告低估了问题的真实规模,以及家庭对这些成本的反应。讨论的基础是在俄罗斯和乌克兰许多地点进行的定性和定量研究。这篇论文的主要论点之一是,非正式的经济实践对许多家庭来说至关重要,而且人们采用了各种各样的应对策略。这些策略往往揭示了国家-社会和工人-雇员关系中存在的不平等权力关系,并有助于详细描述后苏联社会中存在的高度腐败。此外,这些策略与它们发生的地点交织在一起,依赖于高水平的社会资本,确保家庭宁愿留在目前的位置,也不愿迁移到成本更低的地区。这篇论文的结论相当悲观,认为尽管俄罗斯和乌克兰的家庭在苏联解体后的20年里“应付自如”,但未来将面临新的挑战。这些问题包括人口老龄化、越来越多地使用信贷(违约可能导致被驱逐)和全球经济衰退,后者导致非正规领域的机会减少。
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引用次数: 74
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SRPN: Globalization (Sustainability) (Topic)
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