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The Application of Improved Bayesian Method in Reliability Evaluation 改进贝叶斯方法在可靠性评估中的应用
Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.12783/dtetr/mcaee2020/35035
Lei Zhang, Guang Feng, Zhen Hu
Aiming at the problem that the traditional reliability method with small failure samples cannot accurately calculate the reliability, this paper makes full use of existing information and expert information, etc. Based on the combination of prior information and constrained no prior information, the improved Bayesian method is used to establish reliability. Sexual analysis model. First, a weighted fusion method is used to establish a joint prior distribution that combines prior information with constrained and no prior information according to the credibility of the prior information to the posterior information. At the same time, the robustness of the joint prior distribution is analyzed; The prior distribution is combined with the posterior information to calculate the posterior distribution form of the distribution parameter, and the distribution parameter value and the mean time between failures are calculated.
针对传统的小故障样本可靠性方法不能准确计算可靠性的问题,充分利用现有信息和专家信息等。在先验信息与约束无先验信息相结合的基础上,采用改进的贝叶斯方法建立可靠性。性分析模型。首先,根据先验信息对后验信息的可信度,采用加权融合的方法建立先验信息与约束和无先验信息相结合的联合先验分布;同时对联合先验分布的鲁棒性进行了分析;将先验分布与后验信息相结合,计算出分布参数的后验分布形式,并计算出分布参数值和平均故障间隔时间。
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引用次数: 0
Research on the Optimization of the Purchasing Methods of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises from the Perspective of Supply Chain Procurement 供应链采购视角下我国国有企业采购方式优化研究
Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.12783/dtetr/mcaee2020/35101
Zhenming Zhu, Qidong Liu
As the backbone of China’s economic development, the procurement of state-owned enterprises has a far-reaching impact on the breadth and depth of the whole procurement field. With the rapid development of China’s economy and the accelerating pace of GPA accession, the role of procurement in the supply chain of Chinese state-owned enterprises has become more prominent. Based on the procurement dilemma of Chinese state-owned enterprises and the characteristics of procurement under the supply chain environment, this paper dialectically analyzes the relationship among supply chain management and procurement of Chinese state-owned enterprises, and compares the advantages and disadvantages of the general framework agreement procurement method and the bidding framework agreement procurement method from the perspective of supply chain procurement. On this basis, it explores that the consignment bidding framework agreement procurement is an effective way to optimize the procurement method of Chinese state-owned enterprises.
国有企业采购作为中国经济发展的中坚力量,对整个采购领域的广度和深度都有着深远的影响。随着中国经济的快速发展和加入GPA步伐的加快,采购在中国国有企业供应链中的作用更加突出。本文基于中国国有企业的采购困境和供应链环境下采购的特点,辩证分析了供应链管理与中国国有企业采购的关系,并从供应链采购的角度比较了一般框架协议采购方式与招标框架协议采购方式的优缺点。在此基础上,探讨寄售招标框架协议采购是优化我国国有企业采购方式的有效途径。
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引用次数: 0
A Cognitive Approach to English Vague ambiguous Sentences from the Perspective of Semantic Activation 从语义激活角度看英语模糊歧义句的认知研究
Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.12783/dtetr/mcaee2020/35089
Yanhua Liang, Haoxia Liu
The view of semantic activation provides a fair cognitive basis for English vague ambiguous sentences. Integrating the access-and-activation model with a chain of reference point relationships, this paper constructs an access and spreading activation network model of reference point relationships to probe into the cognitive interpretation of vague ambiguous sentences. Results indicate that the double-decoding conceptualization process involves the reference point’s activating and spreading to the target. Vague ambiguity takes place at the levels of lexeme, lemma and conceptual level. The research may shed new light on cognitive linguistics, language education and computer processing of natural language.
语义激活的观点为英语模糊歧义句提供了合理的认知基础。将参考点关系的获取与激活模型与参考点关系链相结合,构建参考点关系的获取与传播激活网络模型,探讨模糊歧义句的认知解释。结果表明,双解码概念化过程包括参考点的激活和向目标点的扩散。模糊歧义发生在词位、引理和概念三个层次。该研究对认知语言学、语言教育和自然语言的计算机处理有新的启示。
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引用次数: 0
Countermeasures of Attracting College Students to Start a Business and Build Talented Youth Cities—Taking Wuhan as an Example 吸引大学生创业建设青年才俊城市的对策——以武汉为例
Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.12783/dtetr/mcaee2020/35079
Yanying Zhang, Xuemei Wang
The issue of college students' entrepreneurship and employment has always been a headache for the government. How to solve this problem is about social stability and people's happiness. And it's up to 89 colleges & universities and 1.3 million college students in WuHan, the number of college students is at the forefront of the world's single cities, it's situation of college students' entrepreneurship and employment in Wuhan can reflect the employment and entrepreneurship of contemporary Chinese college students. So research team took Wuhan as an example. The phenomenon of "going away" is serious in Wuhan. In the past 5 years, less than 50% of Chinese students have been studying in the past five years. To solve this problem, the Wuhan government has launched the "Millions of College Students to Start Businesses and Employment Program" since the "Qingtong" project. The purpose is to enable millions of college students to "come in, go on, stay, and do" in Wuhan. Through field research and case interviews of universities such as Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan University and Wuhan University of Technology, this paper analyzes the status quo of college students' innovation and entrepreneurship, points out their problems, analyzes the causes, and finally puts forward four suggestions. Aim to make a small contribution to the innovation and entrepreneurship of millions of college students, and solve some problems for the innovative and entrepreneurial students.
大学生创业就业问题一直是困扰政府的一个难题。如何解决这一问题关系到社会稳定和人民幸福。武汉拥有89所高校,130万在校大学生,大学生数量居世界单一城市前列,武汉大学生创业就业情况可以反映当代中国大学生的就业创业情况。因此,研究小组以武汉为例。武汉“走出去”现象严重。在过去的5年里,只有不到50%的中国学生在过去的5年里一直在学习。为了解决这一问题,武汉市政府在“青通”工程之后启动了“百万大学生创业就业计划”。目的是让数百万大学生在武汉“来、走、留、做”。本文通过对华中科技大学、武汉大学、武汉理工大学等高校的实地调研和案例访谈,分析了大学生创新创业的现状,指出了存在的问题,分析了原因,最后提出了四点建议。旨在为百万大学生创新创业贡献一份微薄之力,为创新创业的大学生解决一些问题。
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引用次数: 0
The Fifth Dimension of Combat Research—The Influence of Cyberspace in Information Warfare 作战研究的第五维度——网络空间对信息战的影响
Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.12783/dtetr/mcaee2020/35022
Fangzhi Yuan, Hualiang Chen, Junzhi Meng
Cyberspace as the fifth dimension of combat, it has occupied a pivotal position in information operations. In this paper, the concept, composition and characteristics of the cyberspace operations are expounded in general, and the threats of cyber warfare are discussed. Finally, the enlightenment brought by cyberspace warfare is summarized.
网络空间作为作战的第五维度,在信息化作战中占有举足轻重的地位。概述了网络空间作战的概念、构成和特点,讨论了网络空间战争的威胁。最后,总结了网络空间战争带来的启示。
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引用次数: 0
A Comprehensive Evaluation Model of Military Equipment Contractor Capacity Based on Grey Target Decision Theory 基于灰色目标决策理论的军事装备承包商能力综合评价模型
Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.12783/dtetr/mcaee2020/35078
Keyan Miao, Guoping Jiang
It’s difficult to obtain and standardize the contractor capacity information during the process of the military equipment contractor evaluation. This paper analyzed 8 main influencing factors of contractor capacity and established a comprehensive evaluation model of military equipment contractor capacity based on grey target decision theory. Taking the military software production and development project as an example, the evaluation model was used to evaluate the capacity of five contractors, and the effectiveness of the model was verified. The evaluation model realized the comprehensive evaluation of the qualified influencing factors of the contractor capacity, and put forward an effective method to evaluate contractor capacity under the limited sample information situation.
在军事装备承包商评估过程中,承包商能力信息的获取和标准化是一个难点。分析了影响承包商能力的8个主要因素,建立了基于灰色目标决策理论的军事装备承包商能力综合评价模型。以某军用软件生产开发项目为例,运用该评价模型对5家承包商的能力进行了评价,验证了模型的有效性。该评价模型实现了对承包商能力合格影响因素的综合评价,提出了在有限样本信息情况下对承包商能力进行评价的有效方法。
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引用次数: 0
Design of 3D Model Database of Substation Equipment Based on Access Software 基于Access软件的变电站设备三维模型数据库设计
Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.12783/dtetr/mcaee2020/35066
Meng Hui, Zhang Hailong, Guangyi Sun, Fang Shengguo, Jiusheng Zhang, Chen Jia, Sheng Xiaojun
Building model base and sharing model effectively can accelerate the process of 3D new design and scene reconstruction, and reduce the cost of modeling has important engineering value. Based on the analysis of the functional requirements and architecture design of the three-dimensional model database of substation, this paper puts forward the storage information attributes and coding rules of the three-dimensional model database of substation typical equipment, and creates the three-dimensional model database of substation equipment based on access. The three-dimensional model database of substation includes model management and maintenance module, human-computer interaction module, which realizes the storage, storage, query and other functions of three-dimensional model of substation. The research results can provide reference for the construction of three-dimensional model base of substation equipment.
有效地建立模型库和共享模型,可以加快三维新设计和场景重建的进程,降低建模成本,具有重要的工程价值。在分析变电站三维模型数据库的功能需求和体系结构设计的基础上,提出了变电站典型设备三维模型数据库的存储信息属性和编码规则,建立了基于访问的变电站设备三维模型数据库。变电站三维模型数据库包括模型管理与维护模块、人机交互模块,实现了变电站三维模型的存储、存储、查询等功能。研究结果可为变电站设备三维模型库的建设提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of the Effect of Hedge Fund Activism on Target Firm’s CEO Compensation 对冲基金激进主义对目标公司CEO薪酬的影响分析
Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.12783/dtetr/mcaee2020/35103
Lin Chen
Inspired by recent academic advancement as well as real-world cases on hedge fund activism, the main purpose of this paper is to verify the potential effects of hedge fund activism on target firm’s CEO compensation. We used Propensity Score Matching and Difference-in-Differences approach to conduct the statistical analysis based on 835 analyzed samples. We found that the difference between the previous CEO pay level before hedge fund’s intervention and the post CEO pay level after hedge fund’s intervention for target firms is smaller compared to that for non-target firms. The result provides new evidence for the argument that the hedge fund’s intervention can be effective in suppressing the increase in CEO pay in hedge fund’s target firm. The study reveals a possibility that the hedge fund’s involvement in target firm can be viewed as a solution to adjust the executive pay to the reasonable level and make the executive compensation structure more based on company performance.
受最近关于对冲基金激进主义的学术进展和现实案例的启发,本文的主要目的是验证对冲基金激进主义对目标公司CEO薪酬的潜在影响。我们采用倾向得分匹配和差异中差异法对835个分析样本进行统计分析。我们发现对冲基金干预前目标公司CEO薪酬水平与对冲基金干预后目标公司CEO薪酬水平的差异小于非目标公司CEO薪酬水平的差异。研究结果为对冲基金干预能够有效抑制目标公司CEO薪酬增长的论点提供了新的证据。研究揭示了对冲基金参与目标公司的可能性,可以看作是将高管薪酬调整到合理水平,使高管薪酬结构更多地基于公司绩效的解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
The Analysis of Impact of Korean Direct Investment in China on the China-South Korea Trade Deficit 韩国对华直接投资对中韩贸易逆差的影响分析
Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.12783/dtetr/mcaee2020/35085
Xia Wang, Lingzhi Li
With the signing of the China-Korea bilateral free trade agreement in 2015, the relationship between China and South Korea's trading partners has been further clarified. However, China's trade account with South Korea has been in deficit for successive years, and as South Korea's direct investment in China has increased, the deficit has become more apparent. Based on the introduction of the status of South Korea's direct investment in China and China-South Korea trade, this article analyzes the theoretical mechanism and empirical analysis of the impact of South Korea's direct investment in China on the China-South Korea trade deficit, and makes relevant suggestions for reducing the China-South Korea trade deficit.
随着2015年中韩双边自由贸易协定的签署,中韩两国贸易伙伴之间的关系进一步明确。然而,中国对韩国的贸易账户连续多年处于逆差状态,而且随着韩国对华直接投资的增加,逆差更加明显。本文在介绍韩国对华直接投资和中韩贸易现状的基础上,分析了韩国对华直接投资对中韩贸易逆差影响的理论机制和实证分析,并提出了减少中韩贸易逆差的相关建议。
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引用次数: 0
Empirical Analysis of the Impact of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuation on China's Stock Market 国际原油价格波动对中国股市影响的实证分析
Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.12783/dtetr/mcaee2020/35092
Yicheng Chen
The price of oil, known as "black gold", has always attracted the attention of countries around the world. It is already a consensus that international oil prices affect economic operations, and naturally will affect the stock market which is regarded as a barometer of economic operations. The purpose of writing this article is to reveal the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on China's stock market. In order to solve this problem, the author of this paper selected two sets of time series of Brent crude oil spot price and Shanghai Stock Index, and used Eviews software to perform various econometric tests such as cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function, and decomposition of variance. It is found that there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between the international oil price and the Shanghai Stock Index, and that the international oil price is the Granger cause of the Shanghai Stock Index. Furthermore, the former has a positive dynamic impact on the latter as a whole. It reached its maximum by the middle of the third month, and then slowly decreased to stabilize. Compared with the results of other similar studies, this article draws more accurate conclusions thanks to the latest, more realistic data without much artificial processing. The conclusions of this paper can help stock investors and economic decision makers to make more effective decisions.
被称为“黑金”的石油价格一直备受世界各国的关注。国际油价影响经济运行已经成为共识,自然也会影响到被视为经济运行晴雨表的股市。写这篇文章的目的是为了揭示国际原油价格波动对中国股市的影响。为了解决这一问题,本文选取布伦特原油现货价格和上证指数两组时间序列,利用Eviews软件进行协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等计量经济学检验。研究发现,国际油价与上证指数之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,国际油价是上证指数的Granger原因。此外,前者对后者整体上具有积极的动态影响。在第三个月中旬达到最大值,然后缓慢下降趋于稳定。与其他类似研究的结果相比,本文采用了最新的、更真实的数据,没有进行过多的人为处理,得出了更准确的结论。本文的结论可以帮助股票投资者和经济决策者做出更有效的决策。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
DEStech Transactions on Engineering and Technology Research
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