Energy Strategy Reviews最新文献_第8页

Building energy flexibility: A systematic literature review 建筑能源灵活性：系统文献综述

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102160

Emil Hristov , Lidia Vitanova , Desislava Petrova-Antonova , Alexis Papaioannou , Asimina Dimara , Georgia Tzitziou , Stelios Krinidis

As global energy systems face increasing strain from urbanization, renewable energy integration, and the push toward decarbonization, the ability to dynamically manage energy demand has become critical. Energy flexibility (EF) emerges as a key strategy to support demand-side management and enhance energy system resilience. This study presents a comprehensive systematic literature review on building energy flexibility (BEF), a key enabler of demand-side energy management and resilient urban energy systems. Employing the PRISMA methodology, Using the PRISMA methodology, 787 papers published between 2019 and 2024 were initially screened, resulting in a final set of 191 studies included for detailed analysis. The analysis reveals a dominant focus on residential buildings and electric energy systems, with load shift and demand response emerging as the most frequently implemented strategies. Grey-box models and optimization-based approaches were the most widely adopted modeling techniques, often supported by simulation tools like MATLAB and EnergyPlus. Despite growing interest in hybrid systems and real-time control, significant gaps persist in addressing flexibility at district levels, integrating non-electric energy vectors, and incorporating continuous temporal resolutions. Furthermore, the environmental and user-centric impacts remain underexplored. This review synthesizes critical insights and proposes a structured research agenda to bridge the gap between theoretical models and real-world deployment, offering strategic guidance to policymakers, energy system designers and urban planners to develop flexible, sustainable energy systems and buildings.

随着全球能源系统面临城市化、可再生能源整合和推动脱碳带来的越来越大的压力，动态管理能源需求的能力变得至关重要。能源灵活性（EF）已成为支持需求侧管理和增强能源系统弹性的关键战略。本研究对建筑能源灵活性（BEF）进行了全面系统的文献综述，BEF是需求侧能源管理和弹性城市能源系统的关键推动因素。使用PRISMA方法，对2019年至2024年间发表的787篇论文进行了初步筛选，最终纳入了191项研究，以进行详细分析。分析显示，主要关注住宅建筑和电力能源系统，负荷转移和需求响应成为最常用的实施策略。灰盒模型和基于优化的方法是最广泛采用的建模技术，通常由MATLAB和EnergyPlus等仿真工具支持。尽管人们对混合系统和实时控制的兴趣日益浓厚，但在解决地区层面的灵活性、整合非电力能量矢量以及结合连续时间分辨率方面，仍然存在重大差距。此外，环境和以用户为中心的影响仍未得到充分探讨。本综述综合了重要的见解，并提出了一个结构化的研究议程，以弥合理论模型与现实世界部署之间的差距，为政策制定者、能源系统设计师和城市规划者提供战略指导，以开发灵活、可持续的能源系统和建筑。

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引用次数: 0

Enhancing equity return forecasting through oil price fluctuations: An analysis of economic constraints and predictive strategies 通过石油价格波动增强股票收益预测：经济约束和预测策略分析

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102137

Qian Liu , Qiyang Guo , Muhammad Umair

This study investigates the effectiveness of constraint-based forecasting methodologies in enhancing equity return prediction accuracy by using equity market information across multiple economic regimes. We develop a comprehensive framework comparing unconstrained forecasting with three innovative constraint strategies: Campbell-Thompson (CT), Parameterized Time-Varying (PTV), and zero-yield (ZY) constraints, analyzing both original oil returns (OR) and adjusted positive oil returns (APOR) using extensive data spanning 1927-2024. Our empirical analysis reveals that the ZY constraint, based on the three-sigma rule, consistently outperforms traditional forecasting methods, achieving remarkable out-of-sample R-squared improvements of 1.459% for univariate models and 1.777% for forecast combinations, respectively. Contrary to theoretical expectations, the OR demonstrates superior and more reliable predictive performance compared to the APOR across all constraint methodologies, with the OR achieving positive forecasting results, while the APOR consistently produces negative out-of-sample performance despite stronger in-sample relationships. The economic utility analysis demonstrates substantial practical benefits, with Sharpe ratio improvements ranging from 10.7 to 21.7 basis points annually and certainty equivalent return gains exceeding 145-365 basis points, translating into economically meaningful benefits for portfolio management applications. We identify discount rates and sentiment channels as the primary transmission mechanisms underlying oil-equity predictability, while cash flow effects show minimal empirical support. The regime-dependent analysis reveals superior performance during periods of economic expansion and geopolitical uncertainty. These findings establish constraint-based forecasting as a valuable methodological innovation for commodity-equity predictability analysis, with important implications for energy portfolio management, macroeconomic forecasting and monetary policy formulation.

本研究探讨了基于约束的预测方法在利用跨多种经济制度的股票市场信息来提高股票收益预测准确性方面的有效性。我们开发了一个综合框架，将无约束预测与三种创新约束策略(Campbell-Thompson （CT）、参数化时变（PTV）和零收益（ZY）约束进行比较，并使用1927-2024年的广泛数据分析原始石油收益（OR）和调整后的正石油收益（APOR）。我们的实证分析表明，基于三西格玛规则的ZY约束始终优于传统的预测方法，单变量模型和预测组合的样本外r方分别提高了1.459%和1.777%。与理论预期相反，与APOR相比，OR在所有约束方法中都表现出更优越、更可靠的预测性能，OR实现了积极的预测结果，而APOR尽管样本内关系更强，但始终产生负的样本外性能。经济效用分析证明了大量的实际效益，夏普比率每年的改善范围从10.7到21.7个基点，确定的等效回报收益超过145-365个基点，转化为投资组合管理应用程序的经济上有意义的效益。我们确定贴现率和情绪渠道是石油股票可预测性的主要传导机制，而现金流效应显示出最小的经验支持。政权依赖分析揭示了在经济扩张和地缘政治不确定时期的卓越表现。这些发现确立了基于约束的预测是商品股票可预测性分析的一种有价值的方法创新，对能源投资组合管理、宏观经济预测和货币政策制定具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

The role of tax delegation in promoting energy efficiency among enterprises 税收授权在促进企业能源效率中的作用

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102122

Zongke Bao , Qianqian Fu , Chengfang Wang , Yanshai Yashu

This study examines how fiscal governance structures influence corporate environmental performance by exploiting China’s 2003 tax delegation reform as a quasi-natural experiment. The reform transferred corporate income tax collection authority from locally-governed Local Tax Bureaus (LTBs) to centrally-managed State Tax Bureaus (STBs) based on a firm registration date cutoff of January 1, 2002. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with micro-level panel data from Chinese manufacturing firms (2004-2008), we identify the causal impact of tax administration assignment on firm-level energy efficiency, measured as output per unit of energy consumed. Our findings reveal that firms under LTB administration exhibit 8-12% higher energy efficiency compared to comparable firms under STB administration. This effect persists across multiple robustness checks, including alternative bandwidth specifications, placebo tests using unaffected firms, and alternative energy efficiency measures. Mechanism analysis demonstrates that the energy efficiency gains stem from three primary channels: (1) relaxed financial constraints enabling greater investment capacity, (2) transition toward cleaner energy sources with reduced coal dependency, and (3) increased adoption of energy-saving technologies and green innovation. These effects are particularly pronounced among financially constrained firms, non-exporters, and firms in regions with higher fiscal capacity or stronger environmental pressure. These results contribute to three strands of literature. First, they provide novel evidence that fiscal administrative structures—traditionally viewed as purely revenue instruments—can have substantial unintended environmental consequences. Second, they demonstrate how local fiscal flexibility may create conditions conducive to green technological upgrading by alleviating financial frictions. Third, they extend the Porter Hypothesis to the institutional level, showing that supportive governance arrangements can simultaneously enhance economic efficiency and environmental sustainability. The findings suggest that integrating environmental performance metrics into local tax administration evaluation frameworks could align fiscal incentives with sustainability objectives, offering a promising pathway for emerging economies to achieve coordinated economic and environmental goals.

本研究以2003年中国税制下放改革为准自然实验，考察了财政治理结构对企业环境绩效的影响。这项改革将企业所得税的征收权从地方管理的地方税务局转移到中央管理的国家税务局，并以2002年1月1日为企业注册截止日期。利用2004-2008年中国制造企业微观层面面板数据的回归不连续设计（RDD），我们确定了税收分配对企业层面能源效率的因果影响，以单位能源消耗的产出来衡量。我们的研究结果表明，与STB管理下的同类公司相比，LTB管理下的公司的能源效率高出8-12%。这种影响在多个稳健性检查中持续存在，包括替代带宽规格，使用未受影响的公司的安慰剂测试，以及替代能源效率措施。机制分析表明，能源效率的提高源于三个主要渠道：(1)放宽财政限制，增加投资能力；(2)向清洁能源过渡，减少对煤炭的依赖；(3)更多地采用节能技术和绿色创新。这些影响在资金受限的企业、非出口商以及财政能力较高或环境压力较大地区的企业中尤为明显。这些结果促成了三股文献。首先，他们提供了新的证据，证明财政行政结构——传统上被视为纯粹的收入工具——可能会产生意想不到的重大环境后果。其次，它们展示了地方财政灵活性如何通过缓解金融摩擦，创造有利于绿色技术升级的条件。第三，他们将波特假设扩展到制度层面，表明支持性治理安排可以同时提高经济效率和环境可持续性。研究结果表明，将环境绩效指标纳入地方税收管理评估框架可以使财政激励与可持续性目标保持一致，为新兴经济体实现协调的经济和环境目标提供了一条有希望的途径。

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引用次数: 0

Unraveling European electricity price volatility: The impact of renewables 解读欧洲电价波动：可再生能源的影响

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102144

Amelie Schischke, Andreas W. Rathgeber

The transition from fossil fuels to renewable, carbon-free energy is a critical challenge for mitigating climate change, with different European countries adopting diverse approaches to integrating renewable energy sources into their energy systems. Hereby, the intermittent nature and variability of renewable energy generation lead to significant challenges to electricity markets, amplifying supply volatility and market instability. This study examines the determinants of electricity price volatility in European wholesale markets, focusing on the impact of renewable energy sources as well as the influence of fuel prices and electricity demand. Using daily data from thirteen European electricity markets for the period 2015 to 2023, we account for the dynamic development of the energy system and volatile market condition, including the recent shocks induced by the Russia–Ukraine war. By employing country-specific and panel regression models, the findings reveal that conventional power sources, such as nuclear and coal, tend to stabilize electricity markets. In contrast, a higher share of solar power is associated with increased risk. Wind power exhibits mixed effects, with stabilizing impacts in most markets and volatility-enhancing tendencies in Spain, highlighting the role of market-specific dynamics. Additionally, total electricity load as well as the Russia-Ukraine war emerge as significant drivers of market risk.

从化石燃料向可再生、无碳能源的过渡是减缓气候变化的关键挑战，不同的欧洲国家采取不同的方法将可再生能源纳入其能源系统。因此，可再生能源发电的间歇性和可变性给电力市场带来了重大挑战，加剧了供应波动和市场不稳定。本研究考察了欧洲批发市场电价波动的决定因素，重点关注可再生能源的影响以及燃料价格和电力需求的影响。利用2015年至2023年期间13个欧洲电力市场的每日数据，我们考虑了能源系统的动态发展和波动的市场状况，包括最近由俄罗斯-乌克兰战争引起的冲击。通过采用具体国家和面板回归模型，研究结果表明，传统的电力来源，如核能和煤炭，倾向于稳定电力市场。相比之下，太阳能发电的比例越高，风险就越大。风力发电表现出混合效应，在大多数市场具有稳定的影响，在西班牙具有增强波动性的趋势，突出了市场特定动态的作用。此外，总电力负荷以及俄乌战争成为市场风险的重要驱动因素。

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引用次数: 0

Breaking the pollution cycle: Green energy transition, financial innovation, and climate resilience in Türkiye 打破污染循环：绿色能源转型、金融创新和气候适应能力

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102056

Mohammed Musah , Isaac Adjei Mensah , Thomas Appiah , Kwadwo Boateng Prempeh , Gertrude Amoakohene

Türkiye's rapid economic development has heightened environmental degradation, underscoring the need for a green energy transition supported by sustainable financial innovation. This study investigates how financial innovation moderates the relationship between green energy and environmental quality in Türkiye from 1996 to 2021. A multidimensional environmental pressure index, capturing CO₂ damage, energy depletion, forest depletion, mineral depletion, and particulate emission damage, is developed to measure environmental degradation. Using the Kernel Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) machine learning approach, the results show that green energy significantly reduces environmental pressure, advancing Sustainable Development Goals 7 and 13. In contrast, financial innovation intensifies environmental pressure, while its interaction with green energy weakens the latter's environmental benefits. Foreign direct investment has no significant effect. These findings highlight the dual role of financial innovation as both an enabler and a constraint on environmental sustainability. Policymakers should therefore embed environmental safeguards within financial innovation frameworks, expand green finance instruments, and align financial sector development with Türkiye's low-carbon transition goals. The study contributes to ecological modernization theory and the finance–environment nexus by offering novel evidence from an emerging economy.

日本经济的快速发展加剧了环境的恶化，强调了在可持续金融创新的支持下实现绿色能源转型的必要性。本文研究了1996 - 2021年金融创新如何调节我国绿色能源与环境质量之间的关系。建立了一个多维环境压力指数，包括二氧化碳损害、能源枯竭、森林枯竭、矿物枯竭和颗粒排放损害，以衡量环境退化。使用核正则化最小二乘（KRLS）机器学习方法，结果表明绿色能源显着降低了环境压力，推进了可持续发展目标7和13。相反，金融创新加剧了环境压力，与绿色能源的相互作用削弱了后者的环境效益。外商直接投资没有显著影响。这些发现突出了金融创新在环境可持续性方面的双重作用：既是推动者，也是制约因素。因此，政策制定者应将环境保护措施纳入金融创新框架，扩大绿色金融工具，并使金融部门的发展与世行的低碳转型目标保持一致。该研究为生态现代化理论和金融-环境关系提供了来自新兴经济体的新证据。

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引用次数: 0

Probing environmental resilience facets of sustainable energy, natural resources, and sustainable innovation among EU member states 探讨欧盟成员国之间可持续能源、自然资源和可持续创新的环境弹性方面

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102145

Elma Satrovic , Stephen Taiwo Onifade , Ilham Haouas

By integrating the novel load capacity curve (LCC) with advanced panel quantile techniques, this study offers the first thorough assessment of the key factors of ecological resilience among selected European Union (EU) economies. Recognizing the need to ensure the global temperature increases below 1.5 °C, countries have undertaken enthusiastic initiatives in improving ecological resilience and tackling fatal ecological consequences. However, these initiatives are susceptible to the dynamic increase of natural resources consumption that outpaces the regenerative capacity of the ecosystem among our sample of ten EU states. In this vein, the present study scrutinizes the ecological facets of sustainable energy, demographic factor, and trade globalization under the prism of LCC framework. The empirical findings from the 1991–2021 sample of ten EU member states via Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) failed to validate the notions of LCC as there is an inverted U-shaped pattern between economic growth and load capacity factor (FCLC). Furthermore, the study evidenced that natural resource use and demographic factor show a significant negative relationship with the ecological resilience in our sample of ten EU member states, whereas sustainable energy, sustainable innovation, and trade globalization enhance FCLC. For moderation effects, sustainable innovation mitigates the negative effect of natural resources. Thus, the EU economies should balance socio-economic and ecological frameworks to rebound the ecological reserve state. By promoting sustainable energy, innovations, and inclusive growth, they can keep the total demand on nature below the biologically regenerative capacity of productive areas to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG-15).

通过将新型负荷能力曲线（LCC）与先进的面板分位数技术相结合，本研究首次对选定的欧盟（EU）经济体的生态弹性关键因素进行了全面评估。各国认识到有必要确保全球气温上升低于1.5 °C，已采取积极举措，提高生态恢复力，应对致命的生态后果。然而，这些举措容易受到自然资源消耗动态增长的影响，在我们的十个欧盟国家样本中，自然资源消耗的增长速度超过了生态系统的再生能力。在此脉络下，本研究在LCC框架的棱镜下审视可持续能源、人口因素和贸易全球化的生态方面。通过矩分位数回归（MMQR）对1991-2021年10个欧盟成员国样本的实证研究结果未能验证LCC的概念，因为经济增长与承载能力因子（FCLC）之间存在倒u型模式。结果表明，自然资源利用和人口因素与生态弹性呈显著负相关，而可持续能源、可持续创新和贸易全球化对生态弹性有显著的促进作用。在调节效应方面，可持续创新缓解了自然资源的负面影响。因此，欧盟经济应平衡社会经济和生态框架，以恢复生态储备状态。通过促进可持续能源、创新和包容性增长，它们可以将对自然的总需求控制在生产区的生物再生能力以下，从而实现可持续发展目标（SDG-15）。

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引用次数: 0

Ranking of solutions to improve energy efficiency in industry: A case study of the iranian iron and steel industry 提高工业能源效率的解决方案排名：伊朗钢铁工业的案例研究

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102157

Mohammad Reza Zare Banadkouki

In recent years, Iran has faced severe energy shortages due to industrial development, and energy-intensive industries have accounted for a significant share of the country's energy consumption. The iron and steel industry (ISI) is one of the industrial subsectors with the highest energy consumption. Improving productivity and improving energy consumption in production is one of the basic solutions to reduce energy consumption in this sector. Implementing energy efficiency (EF) improvement solutions are usually costly and time-consuming. If properly identified and selected, it leads to a significant reduction in energy consumption. In this study, first, by reviewing the literature on the subject and consulting with experts, considering the energy waste in the production sector of the Iranian ISI, EF improvement solutions and effective criteria in evaluating these solutions were identified. To calculate the weight of the criteria, the Shannon entropy method and fuzzy TOPSIS were used to rank the solutions. EF improvement solutions and evaluation criteria were identified, and the use of the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method to rank the solutions is one of the prominent innovations of this study. The results indicate that 5 evaluation criteria and 30 solutions for improving EF in this industry were identified and approved by experts. Analysis of the findings showed that the criterion, the cost of implementing the solutions, had the highest weight, and the solutions; “Temperature control and excess air reduction in preheating furnace”, “Separating scrap and compressing it to reduce melting time”, as well as “Implementing lighting management programs in the factory” hsd the highest priority in implementation at the factory level according to the evaluation criteria. In the following, sensitivity analysis was performed to maintain the stability and strength of the ranking according to the change in the weight of the criteria.

近年来，由于工业发展，伊朗面临着严重的能源短缺，能源密集型工业占该国能源消耗的很大份额。钢铁工业（ISI）是能源消耗最高的工业子部门之一。提高生产效率和降低生产能耗是降低该行业能耗的基本解决方案之一。实施能源效率（EF）改进解决方案通常既昂贵又耗时。如果正确地识别和选择，它会导致能源消耗的显著减少。在本研究中，首先，通过回顾有关该主题的文献并咨询专家，考虑到伊朗ISI生产部门的能源浪费，确定了EF改进解决方案和评估这些解决方案的有效标准。采用香农熵法和模糊TOPSIS法对解决方案进行排序，计算各指标的权重。确定了EF改进方案和评价标准，并使用多准则决策（MCDM）方法对方案进行排序是本研究的突出创新之一。结果表明，专家们确定了该行业的5个评价标准和30个改善EF的方案。结果分析表明，实施解决方案的成本标准权重最高，解决方案；根据评价标准，“预热炉温度控制和减少多余空气”，“废料分离和压缩以减少熔化时间”，以及“在工厂实施照明管理方案”是工厂层面实施的重中之重。接下来，根据各指标权重的变化，进行敏感性分析，以保持排名的稳定性和强度。

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引用次数: 0

A multi-model assessment of technological constraints on Europe's energy transition 欧洲能源转型技术约束的多模型评估

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102164

Panagiotis Fragkos , Eleftheria Zisarou , Dirk-Jan Van De Ven , Shivika Mittal , Lorenzo Rinaldi , Matteo Rocco , Clàudia Rodés-Bachs , Natasha Frilingou , Conall Heussaff , Alexandros Nikas

Europe's pursuit of net-zero emissions by 2050 is driven by the urgent need to contribute to global climate efforts and enhance its energy security, reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuels. The path to net zero entails a significant, economy-wide uptake of clean energy technologies. However, geopolitical tensions impeding trade, resource unavailability, or sociopolitical factors may give rise to considerable constraints to the uptake of such technologies. Using a diverse model ensemble, we explore the implications of limitations in terms of availability of critical low-carbon technologies such as renewables and batteries, biomass, and carbon capture and storage. Our findings suggest that such constraints could impact mitigation efforts as costlier alternatives become essential, compromise energy security while increasing reliance on fossil fuel imports, and drive cumulative emissions upwards, essentially jeopardising the EU's mid-century climate targets. We underscore the need for resilient energy-system transformations capable of withstanding geopolitical and technological disruptions, including policies prioritising the acceleration of energy efficiency and renewable energy diffusion.

欧洲追求到2050年实现净零排放，是因为迫切需要为全球气候努力做出贡献，并加强其能源安全，减少对进口化石燃料的依赖。实现净零排放的道路需要在整个经济范围内大量采用清洁能源技术。然而，阻碍贸易的地缘政治紧张局势、资源缺乏或社会政治因素可能对这些技术的采用造成相当大的限制。我们使用多样化的模型集合，探讨了关键低碳技术（如可再生能源和电池、生物质、碳捕获和储存）可用性限制的影响。我们的研究结果表明，这些限制可能会影响减排努力，因为更昂贵的替代品变得必不可少，在增加对化石燃料进口的依赖的同时损害能源安全，并推动累积排放量上升，从根本上危及欧盟本世纪中叶的气候目标。我们强调需要有弹性的能源系统转型，能够承受地缘政治和技术干扰，包括优先加快能源效率和可再生能源扩散的政策。

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引用次数: 0

“What's the worst that could happen?” Perceptions of physical, financial, reputational, and policy risk in the United Kingdom's low-carbon industrial transition “最坏的情况是什么？”对英国低碳产业转型中的物理、金融、声誉和政策风险的认识

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102129

Marc Hudson , Benjamin Sovacool , Abbas AbdulRafiu

Rapid decarbonisation of not only energy systems but also industrial systems has become an urgent technical and policy priority. However, national pace is often slow, for many reasons, including the obduracy of large technical systems, uncertainty, and resistance from incumbents. The required transition involves overturning extremely well-entrenched means of carbon intensive manufacturing and production. It also involves a vast number and range of actors, who grapple with physical, reputational, financial, business and policy risks. Drawn from a wider corpus of qualitative expert interviews (n = 96) with participants primarily from industry, government and academia, this article seeks to make both empirical and conceptual contributions on risk as well as policy. It finds that it is not only corporate actors who deploy various tactics, including hedging and waterboarding, while attempting to manage the risks surrounding industrial decarbonisation, but also policymakers. This hedging, in particular, often leads to increased risk elsewhere in the system. Industrial decarbonisation becomes a process of transferring risks across actor group, space or time, but never fully eliminating them.

能源系统和工业系统的快速脱碳已成为一项紧迫的技术和政策重点。然而，由于许多原因，包括大型技术系统的顽固性、不确定性和现任者的阻力，国家的步伐往往很慢。所需的转型包括推翻极其根深蒂固的碳密集型制造和生产方式。它还涉及数量众多、范围广泛的行动者，他们要努力应对人身、声誉、金融、商业和政策风险。本文从更广泛的定性专家访谈语料库（n = 96）中提取，参与者主要来自工业界、政府和学术界，本文试图对风险和政策做出经验和概念上的贡献。报告发现，在试图管理与工业脱碳相关的风险时，不仅企业行为者采用了各种策略，包括对冲和水刑，政策制定者也是如此。尤其是这种对冲，往往会导致金融体系其他领域的风险增加。工业脱碳成为一种风险在行动者群体、空间或时间之间转移的过程，但从未完全消除风险。

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引用次数: 0

Synergizing the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions in chinese cities: spatiotemporal distribution, regional disparities and convergence 中国城市污染减排与碳排放的协同效应：时空分布、区域差异与趋同

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102143

Rui Li , Jiajun Xu , Xiaojun Yang , Longqi Yan , Qing Ouyang

Synergizing the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions (SRPC) and coordinated regional development are two key sustainable development strategies in China. However, there is still a lack of research on the measurement of urban SRPC and its regional differences. Based on panel data of 284 cities in China from 2003 to 2019, this paper uses the DPSIRM model to measure the level of SRPC. Then, the Dagum Gini coefficient is adopted to quantify the regional differences and sources of SRPC, and the spatial panel model is used to test convergence. The results show that: (1) The level of SRPC in Chinese cities continues to improve. (2) The overall differences in SRPC between cities show a continuous downward trend. The western region has the largest intra-regional differences and a large inter-regional gap with other regions. (3) There are significant spatial correlations and β-convergence trends of SRPC in Chinese cities, and the convergence rate is lower in eastern cities where the SRPC is higher. In addition, environmental regulation plays an important role in accelerating convergence.

污染减排与碳排放协同发展是中国可持续发展的两大战略。然而，目前对城市SRPC的测度及其区域差异的研究还比较缺乏。本文基于2003 - 2019年中国284个城市的面板数据，采用DPSIRM模型对城乡居民收入水平进行测度。然后，采用Dagum基尼系数量化SRPC的区域差异和来源，并采用空间面板模型检验收敛性。结果表明：(1)中国城市SRPC水平持续提高。(2)城市间SRPC总体差异呈持续下降趋势。西部地区区域内差异最大，与其他地区的区域间差距也较大。③中国城市SRPC存在显著的空间相关性和β-收敛趋势，且东部城市SRPC较高，其收敛速度较低。此外，环境规制在加速趋同方面也起着重要作用。

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