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Implications of public acceptance assessments for site selections in the small modular reactors using system dynamics 利用系统动力学评估公众接受度对小型模块化反应堆选址的影响
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101526
Kyung Bae Jang, Tae Ho Woo

This study investigates the feasibility of siting a nuclear power plant (NPP) within a densely populated university campus. Site selection for NPPs is a complex process involving numerous interconnected factors. To address this complexity, we employ system dynamics (SD) modeling, a methodology renowned for its ability to quantify both technological and social aspects. Our simulation results indicate that public acceptance (PA) is a critical determinant in site selection. In the fourth month of the simulation, the model's values were identical in both PA and non-PA scenarios. However, subsequent simulations revealed a significant divergence, with PA-implicated values reaching 85.398 compared to 24.240 in the non-PA scenario. This disparity underscores the primacy of PA in the decision-making process. Given the extended timeline of NPP construction, the gap between PA and non-PA outcomes is likely to widen further, particularly in the context of positive public sentiment toward the NPP. The insights gleaned from this research can be applied to other industries, such as oil refineries, where the potential for atmospheric pollution due to toxic gas leaks necessitates careful site selection.

本研究探讨了在人口稠密的大学校园内建造核电站(NPP)的可行性。核电站选址是一个复杂的过程,涉及众多相互关联的因素。为了应对这种复杂性,我们采用了系统动力学(SD)建模方法,该方法因其能够量化技术和社会方面而闻名。我们的模拟结果表明,公众接受度(PA)是选址的关键决定因素。在模拟的第四个月,PA 和非 PA 方案的模型值完全相同。然而,随后的模拟结果显示出明显的差异,PA 仿真值达到 85.398,而非 PA 仿真值为 24.240。这种差异凸显了 PA 在决策过程中的重要性。鉴于国家核电厂建设的时间较长,PA 与非 PA 结果之间的差距可能会进一步扩大,尤其是在公众对国家核电厂持积极态度的情况下。从本研究中获得的启示可应用于其他行业,如炼油厂,由于有毒气体泄漏可能造成大气污染,因此必须谨慎选址。
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引用次数: 0
Global energy efficiency transition tendencies: Development phenomenon or not? 全球能源效率转型趋势:发展现象与否?
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101524
Philip Kofi Adom

I assessed energy efficiency performance and investigated transition tendencies for economies at different development levels. I found that energy efficiency performance is tied to the level of economic development, with developed economies exhibiting higher performance than developing economies. Furthermore, developed economies are more likely than developing countries to transition out of a low energy-efficient (LEE) state. Consequently, achieving higher energy efficiency (HEE) status is expected to be highly sustainable in the short-, medium-, and long-term for developed countries. However, for similar achievements, I found moderate sustainability in the medium-to long-term for upper-middle-income countries and higher unsustainability in the medium-to long-term for lower-middle-income countries. Addressing the gap in the global energy efficiency system requires a ‘big push’ investment in energy efficiency, particularly in developing countries, in addition to implementing a broad policy overhaul aimed at eliminating or reducing market barriers and inefficiencies in energy efficiency.

我评估了不同发展水平经济体的能效表现,并调查了其转型趋势。我发现,能效表现与经济发展水平有关,发达经济体的能效表现高于发展中经济体。此外,发达经济体比发展中国家更有可能摆脱低能效(LEE)状态。因此,对于发达国家而言,实现更高的能源效率(HEE)状态预计在短期、中期和长期内都具有高度的可持续性。然而,对于类似的成就,我发现中上收入国家的中长期可持续性一般,而中低收入国家的中长期不可持续性较高。要解决全球能效体系中的差距,需要对能效进行 "大力推动 "投资,特别是在发展中国家,此外还需要实施广泛的政策改革,以消除或减少能效方面的市场障碍和低效率。
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引用次数: 0
Unlocking wind power potential: The pivotal role of R&D investment in boosting wind power enterprise performance 释放风电潜力:研发投资对提升风电企业绩效的关键作用
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101507
Xiaoli Hao , Qingyu Sun , Peicheng Ma , Ke Li , Haitao Wu , Yan Xue

Boosting the core competitiveness and operational efficiency of enterprises while minimizing costs through strategic R&D investments is crucial for the advancement of wind power companies. This paper examines data from listed wind power enterprises from 2015 to 2023 and develops a detailed multiple linear regression model for comprehensive analysis. Goldwind Science & Technology Co., Ltd. is used as a case study. The paper explores the impact of R&D investment on wind power enterprise performance through empirical and case analyses, revealing several key insights. First, both R&D intensity and per capita R&D investment positively affect wind power enterprise performance, with R&D intensity having a more substantial impact. Second, the case study of Goldwind demonstrates a clear positive correlation between R&D intensity, per capita R&D investment, and corporate performance. Third, the impact mechanism analysis shows that increased R&D investment enhances Goldwind's technological advancements, leading to new products that meet market demand and improve enterprise performance. Based on these findings, the paper proposes policy recommendations, including increasing R&D investment and recruiting more scientific researchers.

通过战略性研发投资提升企业的核心竞争力和运营效率,同时最大限度地降低成本,对于风电企业的发展至关重要。本文研究了 2015 年至 2023 年上市风电企业的数据,并建立了详细的多元线性回归模型进行综合分析。本文以金风科技股份有限公司为例进行研究。本文通过实证分析和案例分析,探讨了研发投入对风电企业绩效的影响,揭示了几个重要的启示。首先,研发强度和人均研发投入都会对风电企业绩效产生积极影响,其中研发强度的影响更大。其次,金风科技的案例研究表明,研发强度、人均研发投入与企业绩效之间存在明显的正相关关系。第三,影响机制分析表明,R&D 投资的增加提高了金风科技的技术进步,带来了满足市场需求的新产品,提高了企业绩效。基于这些研究结果,本文提出了包括增加研发投入和招募更多科研人员在内的政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
To tax or to trade? A global review of carbon emissions reduction strategies 征税还是交易?全球碳减排战略回顾
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101508
Jingjing Pan , Jamie L. Cross , Xiaomin Zou , Bo Zhang

Carbon taxes and emissions trading systems (ETSs) are the two most popular policy tools in the global effort to achieve net-zero carbon emissions. Herein, we review empirical and theoretical research on carbon taxes and ETSs, focusing on the policies’ design, implementation, and effectiveness in various environmental and economic contexts. We provide a comprehensive comparison of the relative advantages and disadvantages of these two policies and offer insights into their future design and application. Our main conclusion is that an integrated mechanism that combines features of both policies with those of other complementary policies may be a more effective approach to emissions abatement than solitarily using either policy.

碳税和排放交易体系(ETS)是全球努力实现碳净零排放的两个最受欢迎的政策工具。在此,我们回顾了有关碳税和排放交易体系的实证和理论研究,重点关注这两项政策在不同环境和经济背景下的设计、实施和有效性。我们全面比较了这两种政策的相对优缺点,并对其未来的设计和应用提出了见解。我们的主要结论是,与单独使用其中一种政策相比,将这两种政策的特点与其他补充政策的特点相结合的综合机制可能是更有效的减排方法。
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引用次数: 0
Characteristics and influencing factors of the industry-university-research collaborative innovation network in China's new energy vehicle industry 中国新能源汽车产业产学研协同创新网络的特征及影响因素
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101505
Xiaoping Wang , Liping Qiu , Feng Hu , Hao Hu

Industry-university-research collaboration is the primary channel of industrial innovation, and China is a common context for research on innovation in the new energy vehicle industry. This study analyzes the industry-university-research collaborative innovation network in China's new energy vehicle industry using various software programs, including Gephi and ArcGIS, based on collaborative invention patent data related to the new energy vehicle industry provided by the global patent database incoPat. According to the findings of this study, the highest number of patents obtained through industry-university-research collaboration was observed in new energy vehicle device and accessory manufacturing, whereas the number of new entrants was significantly higher than the number of incumbents albeit in a downward trend, suggesting that the creation of new collaborative relationships among new entrants has always been the main phenomenon in the process of building an industry-university-research innovation system in the new energy vehicle industry. As private firms have long been playing an integral role in industry-university-research collaboration in the new energy vehicle industry, the number of private firms in the network exhibited an upward trend annually, while the dual heterogeneous connection mode was the primary connection mode in industry-university-research collaboration. There were some differences between the spatial characteristics of intraprovincial and interprovincial collaboration in the industry-university-research collaborative network in China's new energy vehicle industry. The analysis results obtained using GeoDetector revealed that the influence of economic base, level of openness to the outside world, government dominance, market dominance, regional science and technology finance, and entrepreneurial spirit varied from one stage to another.

产学研合作是产业创新的主要渠道,而中国是新能源汽车产业创新研究的共同背景。本研究基于全球专利数据库incoPat提供的与新能源汽车产业相关的协同发明专利数据,利用Gephi和ArcGIS等多种软件对中国新能源汽车产业的产学研协同创新网络进行了分析。研究结果表明,新能源汽车装置及配件制造领域通过产学研合作获得的专利数量最多,而新进入者的数量虽然呈下降趋势,但明显高于在位者,这表明新进入者之间建立新的合作关系一直是新能源汽车产业产学研创新体系建设过程中的主要现象。由于民营企业长期以来在新能源汽车产业产学研合作中扮演着不可或缺的角色,网络中的民营企业数量呈现逐年上升的趋势,而双异质连接模式是产学研合作中的主要连接模式。中国新能源汽车产业产学研合作网络中省内合作与省际合作的空间特征存在一定差异。利用 GeoDetector 得出的分析结果显示,经济基础、对外开放水平、政府主导地位、市场主导地位、区域科技金融和企业家精神对不同阶段的影响各不相同。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of energy consumption patterns on peak emissions in China's carbon neutralisation process 中国碳中和进程中能源消费模式对峰值排放的影响
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101501
Xinyu Cai , Hua Xiang , Haotian Zheng

The investigation of the impact of energy consumption patterns on peak emissions in China is pertinent and crucial for achieving global climate goals. The study aims to form a forecast of carbon emissions in China and diagnose the achievement of established decarbonization goals based on structural changes in primary energy consumption until 2030. To achieve the goal, the study formed a Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with the implementation of Markov chains. The obtained research results yield important insights into the influence of various scenarios on carbon emissions in China by the year 2030. Specifically, considering structural transformations, an increase in emissions by 15 % can be anticipated, which is 7 % less than predicted by the classical scenario. Among the proposed scenarios, the Net Zero scenario is deemed the most efficient, where emissions could reach a level of 8509.5 million tons of CO₂. Conversely, the New Momentum scenario proves to be the most precarious, as it entails an escalation in coal usage, leading to a 4 % increase in emissions, amounting to 13264.84 million tons of CO₂. The contribution of this study is the approach to conducting carbon emission projections, which is based on the DSGE model with the implementation of Markov chains. This makes it possible to assess the adequacy of the set targets for carbon reduction based on alternative scenarios, which in crisis conditions can overlap and thus complement each other.

研究中国能源消费模式对峰值排放的影响,对于实现全球气候目标至关重要。本研究旨在基于一次能源消费结构的变化,对中国 2030 年前的碳排放进行预测,并诊断既定脱碳目标的实现情况。为实现这一目标,研究利用马尔科夫链建立了动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型。研究结果对 2030 年前各种情景对中国碳排放的影响产生了重要启示。具体而言,考虑到结构转型,预计排放量将增加 15%,比经典情景预测的排放量减少 7%。在提出的各种方案中,"净零 "方案被认为是最有效的方案,其二氧化碳排放量可达到 8.5095 亿吨。相反,"新动力 "方案被证明是最不稳定的方案,因为该方案会导致煤炭使用量增加,从而使排放量增加 4%,达到 1.3264 亿吨二氧化碳。本研究的贡献在于采用了基于 DSGE 模型和马尔科夫链的碳排放预测方法。这样就有可能根据替代方案评估碳减排既定目标的适当性,在危机条件下,这些方案可以相互重叠,从而相互补充。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of different CO2 price paths on the development of the European electricity system 不同二氧化碳价格路径对欧洲电力系统发展的影响
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101499
Erdal Tekin, Annika Gillich, Kai Hufendiek

In energy system transformation studies, the assumption of linearly rising CO2 prices is common and based on the decreasing issued European allowances (EUA). The actual auction price for allowances is influenced by market dynamics, resulting in non-linear variations in CO2 prices due to the possibility of banking allowances. This study explores the impact of non-linear CO2 price trajectories on the European electricity market. Various scenarios, such as increasing prices with the market interest rate, early price peaks, collapse, or fluctuations, are examined until 2030. The study quantifies the effects on power plant investments, profitability, consumer costs, and government revenues. The findings reveal that early and high price signals lead to an earlier transition with 7 % more wind power plants but at 4 % higher costs. Conversely, lower initial prices delay power plant investments in wind power plants by 6 % and result in 21 % higher emissions. Compensation for climate impact costs can yield a positive cost-benefit analysis in scenarios with early and high price signals when emissions are avoided through mechanisms like the Market Stability Reserve (MSR).

在能源系统转型研究中,二氧化碳价格线性上升的假设很常见,其依据是发放的欧洲配额(EUA)不断减少。配额的实际拍卖价格受市场动态的影响,由于配额可以存入银行,从而导致二氧化碳价格的非线性变化。本研究探讨了非线性二氧化碳价格轨迹对欧洲电力市场的影响。研究了 2030 年前的各种情况,如价格随市场利率上升、价格提前达到峰值、崩溃或波动。研究量化了对发电厂投资、盈利能力、消费者成本和政府收入的影响。研究结果表明,早期价格信号和高价格信号会导致风力发电厂提前转型,风力发电厂数量增加 7%,但成本增加 4%。相反,较低的初始价格会使风力发电厂的投资推迟 6%,并导致排放量增加 21%。如果通过市场稳定储备(MSR)等机制避免排放,在价格信号较早和较高的情况下,气候影响成本补偿可产生积极的成本效益分析。
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引用次数: 0
A comparative study of energy governance on energy resilience: process tracing of China and Thailand's solar power development 能源治理对能源复原力的比较研究:中国和泰国太阳能发电发展的过程追踪
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101500
Wei Ye , Warathida Chaiyapa , Yuting Li

Asia, the world's highest emitting region with surging electricity demand, must transition to clean energy sources for sustainable development. Despite significant progress in solar power deployment, its penetration in the electricity mix remains relatively low. This study employs process tracing to compare solar power development in China and Thailand from 2000 to 2023, representing state-driven and society-centered governance approaches. By analyzing data from secondary sources and conducting online stakeholder interviews, we assess the role of energy governance in fostering resilience during the low-carbon transition. We find state-driven governance exhibits resilience in addressing immediate crises, while society-centered governance drives societal transformation towards a low-carbon future. While state-centric governance suits large-scale centralized renewables, society-centered governance is crucial for distributed renewable projects. Path-dependent governance determines how the energy sector takes in niche innovation, and the reinforced governance structure constrains energy resilience given the interaction within and of the sector with other societal actors. The findings provide insights to inform evidence-based policies and interventions for renewable deployment.

亚洲是世界上排放最高的地区,电力需求激增,必须向清洁能源过渡,以实现可持续发展。尽管太阳能发电的部署取得了重大进展,但其在电力结构中的渗透率仍然相对较低。本研究采用过程追踪法,比较了中国和泰国从 2000 年到 2023 年的太阳能发电发展情况,分别代表了国家驱动型和社会中心型治理方法。通过分析二手资料来源的数据和对利益相关者进行在线访谈,我们评估了能源治理在低碳转型期间促进复原力的作用。我们发现,国家驱动的治理方式在应对直接危机时表现出弹性,而以社会为中心的治理方式则推动社会向低碳未来转型。以国家为中心的治理适合大规模集中式可再生能源,而以社会为中心的治理则对分布式可再生能源项目至关重要。路径依赖型治理决定了能源部门如何接受利基创新,而强化的治理结构则限制了能源部门内部以及能源部门与其他社会参与者之间的互动。研究结果为可再生能源部署的循证政策和干预措施提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Harnessing robotics for environmental economics and energy strategy: Advancing global economic policies towards green growth 利用机器人技术促进环境经济学和能源战略:推进全球经济政策,实现绿色增长
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101504
Di Zhao , Yingying Gao , Ziai Wu , Muhammad Shabaz

The composition of energy consumption is shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. Determining if reducing energy use may increase green factor production (GFP) is thus crucial. This study, which examines data from 2013 to 2019, indicates that GFP is impacted by both the Robotics and natural resource markets. It conducts a comprehensive analysis of Robotics's impact on the development of green economies using China as a case study and a suitable mathematical model, namely a static panel model (SPM). By applying robotics analytical powers and predictive modelling, the research sheds light on how economic growth and environmental preservation might be balanced, or “green growth.” The magazine aims to find synergies that support the incorporation of AI-driven solutions into policy frameworks, promoting a shift toward more environmentally sustainable practices globally by carefully analyzing global economic policies. It has been observed that different industries and development phases have other impacts of AI on carbon intensity. Furthermore, this investigation dissects GFP into its component elements, green efficiency improvement effects, and technological advancement to elucidate how AI influences green economic growth.

能源消费结构正在从化石燃料转向可再生能源。因此,确定减少能源使用是否能提高绿色生产要素(GFP)至关重要。本研究对 2013 年至 2019 年的数据进行了分析,结果表明,绿色生产要素受到机器人市场和自然资源市场的影响。研究以中国为案例,采用合适的数学模型,即静态面板模型(SPM),全面分析了机器人技术对绿色经济发展的影响。通过应用机器人技术的分析能力和预测模型,该研究揭示了如何平衡经济增长和环境保护,即 "绿色增长"。该杂志旨在寻找协同效应,支持将人工智能驱动的解决方案纳入政策框架,通过仔细分析全球经济政策,在全球范围内推动向更具环境可持续性的做法转变。据观察,不同行业和发展阶段的人工智能对碳强度的影响各不相同。此外,本研究还将全球碳强度分解为其组成要素、绿色效率改善效应和技术进步,以阐明人工智能如何影响绿色经济增长。
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引用次数: 0
Land competition and its impact on decarbonized energy systems: A case study for Germany 土地竞争及其对去碳化能源系统的影响:德国案例研究
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101502
Marlon Schlemminger , Clemens Lohr , Florian Peterssen , Dennis Bredemeier , Raphael Niepelt , Astrid Bensmann , Richard Hanke-Rauschenbach , Michael H. Breitner , Rolf Brendel

In densely populated countries, land competition is a key challenge in light of a growing population and the land-intensive decarbonization of energy supply. We apply an energy system model using linear optimization to Germany as an example for a densely populated and industrialized nation with a high energy demand to show how land competition affects the economics of land-intensive renewable energies. Bioenergy crops are currently cultivated on 6.5% of Germany’s land area. We find that allocating only 6% of the total land to the future energy system, which is even less than the current allocation to bioenergy crops, allows for a system that is close to the cost-minimum that we calculate when not restricting the land area. This 6% of the land area is divided into 4% for photovoltaics (PV), 2% for onshore wind and 0% for bioenergy crops. This would save 15 billion €/a (15.1%) relative to the system that matches current political targets for utility-scale PV. For areas exceeding this 6%, we find that the most cost-efficient utilization comes from bioenergy crops, but they only add value to the energy system if there is plenty of land available. The value of land to the energy system is at least twice as high for 0% remaining emissions when compared to the case of 10% remaining green house gas emissions, although both scenarios are separated by less than five years according to current German law. Both our findings underline that considering the value of land as early as possible is necessary when developing state policies that shall lead to cost-efficient renewable energy systems.

在人口稠密的国家,由于人口增长和能源供应的土地密集型去碳化,土地竞争是一项关键挑战。我们采用线性优化的能源系统模型,以人口稠密、能源需求高的工业化国家德国为例,说明土地竞争如何影响土地密集型可再生能源的经济性。目前,生物能源作物的种植面积占德国土地面积的 6.5%。我们发现,未来的能源系统只需分配总土地面积的 6%(比目前生物能源作物的分配面积还要少),就能使系统接近我们在不限制土地面积的情况下计算出的最低成本。这 6% 的土地面积中,4% 用于光伏发电,2% 用于陆上风电,0% 用于生物能源作物。相对于符合当前公用事业规模光伏发电政治目标的系统,这将节省 150 亿欧元/年(15.1%)。对于超过 6% 的地区,我们发现生物能源作物的利用最具成本效益,但只有在有大量可用土地的情况下,生物能源作物才能为能源系统增值。在剩余排放量为 0% 的情况下,土地对能源系统的价值至少是剩余温室气体排放量为 10% 情况下的两倍,尽管根据德国现行法律,这两种情况相差不到五年。我们的这两项研究结果都强调,在制定国家政策时,有必要尽早考虑土地的价值,以建立具有成本效益的可再生能源系统。
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引用次数: 0
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Energy Strategy Reviews
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