Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101918
Yasmine Ayed , Patricia Fortes , Rafat Al Afif
The Maghreb's power-sector transition hinges on implementing the region's Nationally Determined Contributions and Low-Emission Development Strategies. Using The Integrated Market Allocation Energy Flow Optimization Model system (TIMES) energy-modelling framework, this study traces the evolution of the electricity systems of Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria from 2018 to 2050, assessing renewable energy targets, decarbonization feasibility, and the value of regional electricity trade. All three countries can exceed their renewable electricity targets: Onshore wind and solar photovoltaic jointly comprise over 90 % of the capacity, while Concentrated solar power plays a limited role. Flexible technology deployment is expected to result in a 25 % reduction in electricity prices in Morocco and Tunisia, and a 10 % reduction in Algeria, by 2030. Power sector decarbonization requires 130 GW of renewable energy capacity and 28 GW of storage, with a cumulative investment of €17 billion. Regional electricity trade enables cost savings, reducing Algeria's investment needs by 18 %, and allows Morocco and Tunisia to export up to 71 % and 54 % of their interconnector capacity. These results underscore the importance of regional cooperation and provide valuable insights for aligning national energy strategies with long-term climate objectives.
{"title":"Maghreb's renewable power future for climate mitigation: insights from the TIMES-MAGe model","authors":"Yasmine Ayed , Patricia Fortes , Rafat Al Afif","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101918","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101918","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Maghreb's power-sector transition hinges on implementing the region's Nationally Determined Contributions and Low-Emission Development Strategies. Using The Integrated Market Allocation Energy Flow Optimization Model system (TIMES) energy-modelling framework, this study traces the evolution of the electricity systems of Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria from 2018 to 2050, assessing renewable energy targets, decarbonization feasibility, and the value of regional electricity trade. All three countries can exceed their renewable electricity targets: Onshore wind and solar photovoltaic jointly comprise over 90 % of the capacity, while Concentrated solar power plays a limited role. Flexible technology deployment is expected to result in a 25 % reduction in electricity prices in Morocco and Tunisia, and a 10 % reduction in Algeria, by 2030. Power sector decarbonization requires 130 GW of renewable energy capacity and 28 GW of storage, with a cumulative investment of €17 billion. Regional electricity trade enables cost savings, reducing Algeria's investment needs by 18 %, and allows Morocco and Tunisia to export up to 71 % and 54 % of their interconnector capacity. These results underscore the importance of regional cooperation and provide valuable insights for aligning national energy strategies with long-term climate objectives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"62 ","pages":"Article 101918"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145413232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101978
Yakubu Abdul-Salam , Farouk Abdul-Salam
This study examines the role of Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in the global energy transition, focusing on efficiency improvements in electricity generation and end-use emissions reductions. Using a panel data econometric approach, the study empirically assesses the impact of Qatari LNG on power generation efficiency across importing countries. Additionally, a counterfactual scenario framework is employed to quantify the end-use emissions reductions achieved through the substitution of coal and oil with LNG. Findings reveal that Qatari LNG has significantly improved efficiency in thermal electricity generation across importing countries, although diminishing marginal returns emerge at higher LNG penetration levels. Regarding end-use emissions reductions, Qatari LNG exports have cumulatively avoided 3525.66 Mt between 1997 and 2022, equivalent to 10.08 % of global energy-related emissions in 2022. Over the past decade, annual emissions reductions from Qatari LNG have stabilised at about 234.61 Mt , surpassing the total energy-related emissions of major economies such as Spain and the Netherlands in 2022. These reductions correspond to an estimated annual global environmental benefit of $40.95 billion. These findings highlight the critical role of Qatari LNG exports to efficiency enhancements and emissions reductions, reinforcing its role in advancing decarbonization across diverse power systems. However, the results underscore the limitations of LNG in long-term sustainability as efficiency gains plateau and continued reliance on fossil fuels may induce carbon lock-in. While Qatari LNG provides a crucial transition pathway, its role should be complemented by accelerated investments in renewables and carbon abatement technologies.
{"title":"Qatar's LNG exports: Advancing efficiency in electricity generation and reducing carbon emissions in the global energy transition","authors":"Yakubu Abdul-Salam , Farouk Abdul-Salam","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101978","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101978","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the role of Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in the global energy transition, focusing on efficiency improvements in electricity generation and end-use emissions reductions. Using a panel data econometric approach, the study empirically assesses the impact of Qatari LNG on power generation efficiency across importing countries. Additionally, a counterfactual scenario framework is employed to quantify the end-use emissions reductions achieved through the substitution of coal and oil with LNG. Findings reveal that Qatari LNG has significantly improved efficiency in thermal electricity generation across importing countries, although diminishing marginal returns emerge at higher LNG penetration levels. Regarding end-use emissions reductions, Qatari LNG exports have cumulatively avoided 3525.66 Mt <span><math><mrow><msub><mtext>CO</mtext><mn>2</mn></msub></mrow></math></span> between 1997 and 2022, equivalent to 10.08 % of global energy-related <span><math><mrow><msub><mtext>CO</mtext><mn>2</mn></msub></mrow></math></span> emissions in 2022. Over the past decade, annual emissions reductions from Qatari LNG have stabilised at about 234.61 Mt <span><math><mrow><msub><mtext>CO</mtext><mn>2</mn></msub></mrow></math></span>, surpassing the total energy-related emissions of major economies such as Spain and the Netherlands in 2022. These reductions correspond to an estimated annual global environmental benefit of $40.95 billion. These findings highlight the critical role of Qatari LNG exports to efficiency enhancements and emissions reductions, reinforcing its role in advancing decarbonization across diverse power systems. However, the results underscore the limitations of LNG in long-term sustainability as efficiency gains plateau and continued reliance on fossil fuels may induce carbon lock-in. While Qatari LNG provides a crucial transition pathway, its role should be complemented by accelerated investments in renewables and carbon abatement technologies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"62 ","pages":"Article 101978"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145525410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101979
Qing Ma , Yu Yan
The agglomeration of new energy industries has sparked a vivid discussion on its ecological welfare effects, capturing the attention of academic circles and policymakers. This paper explores the intrinsic relationships and dynamic evolution patterns between new energy industry agglomeration and ecological prosperity. It further discusses whether new energy industry agglomeration ameliorates the EKC phenomenon and investigates the selection of moderating effect pathways. The study applies comparative regression with Difference and System GMM models, stepwise regression via the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), and interactive regression through PVAR. The key findings are summarized as follows: (1) The impact of new energy industry's economic development on environmental pollution exhibits an inverted U-shaped curve, aligning with the EKC theory. Additionally, new findings show that it presents positive U-shaped curves with common prosperity and ecological welfare performance, respectively. (2) Spatial spillover analysis reveals that the agglomeration of new energy industry does not exhibit a "green paradox" effect on environmental pollution. Specifically, the local direct effect of pollution suppression is approximately twice the indirect spillover effect on neighboring regions; its impact on local welfare shifts from "ecological curse" to "well-being" but inhibits adjacent areas via an "agglomeration shadow effect". This study innovatively links the "EKC theory" and "welfare-based view " to the discussion of new energy on ecological prosperity from the lens of agglomeration effects.
{"title":"Gathering \"Energy\" to achieve \"Affluence\": Research on the ecological prosperity effects of new energy industry agglomeration —Re-examining the Environmental Kuznets Curve based on Chinese data","authors":"Qing Ma , Yu Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101979","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101979","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The agglomeration of new energy industries has sparked a vivid discussion on its ecological welfare effects, capturing the attention of academic circles and policymakers. This paper explores the intrinsic relationships and dynamic evolution patterns between new energy industry agglomeration and ecological prosperity. It further discusses whether new energy industry agglomeration ameliorates the EKC phenomenon and investigates the selection of moderating effect pathways. The study applies comparative regression with Difference and System GMM models, stepwise regression via the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), and interactive regression through PVAR. The key findings are summarized as follows: (1) The impact of new energy industry's economic development on environmental pollution exhibits an inverted U-shaped curve, aligning with the EKC theory. Additionally, new findings show that it presents positive U-shaped curves with common prosperity and ecological welfare performance, respectively. (2) Spatial spillover analysis reveals that the agglomeration of new energy industry does not exhibit a \"green paradox\" effect on environmental pollution. Specifically, the local direct effect of pollution suppression is approximately twice the indirect spillover effect on neighboring regions; its impact on local welfare shifts from \"ecological curse\" to \"well-being\" but inhibits adjacent areas via an \"agglomeration shadow effect\". This study innovatively links the \"EKC theory\" and \"welfare-based view \" to the discussion of new energy on ecological prosperity from the lens of agglomeration effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"62 ","pages":"Article 101979"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145620529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101982
Muhammad Javid, Raed Ali Al-Mestneer
In this study, we estimate and project the number of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in Saudi Arabia up to 2050. The projected number of vehicles is then used to estimate and project the oil demand and CO2 emissions associated with the transport sector by 2050. Based on the projected number of ICE vehicles, we design three scenarios for developing electric vehicles (EVs) (high, moderate, and low—growth scenarios) to determine the impact of EV expansion on future oil demand, CO2 emissions, and electricity demand for EVs.
Our projections indicate that by 2050, the total number of ICE vehicles in Saudi Arabia could reach 29.6 million, approximately 2.5 times the 2023 level. Scenario projections of EVs show that by 2050, the number of EVs could reach 14.8 million in the high-growth scenario, 11.9 million in the moderate-growth scenario, and 8.9 million in the low-growth scenario. By 2050, the electricity for EVs in Saudi Arabia is projected to reach 47.7 TWh per year in the high-growth scenario, 38.2 TWh per year in the moderate-growth scenario, and 28.6 TWh per year in the low-growth scenario.
The adoption of EVs in Saudi Arabia can play a pivotal role in helping the country achieve its ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions and curbing domestic oil consumption. Vehicle electrification can also support broader development objectives, such as enhancing inclusive mobility, improving local air quality, strengthening energy security, and advancing industrial policy initiatives.
{"title":"Introduction of electric vehicles in Saudi Arabia: Impacts on oil consumption, CO2 emissions, and electricity demand","authors":"Muhammad Javid, Raed Ali Al-Mestneer","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101982","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101982","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we estimate and project the number of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in Saudi Arabia up to 2050. The projected number of vehicles is then used to estimate and project the oil demand and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions associated with the transport sector by 2050. Based on the projected number of ICE vehicles, we design three scenarios for developing electric vehicles (EVs) (high, moderate, and low—growth scenarios) to determine the impact of EV expansion on future oil demand, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, and electricity demand for EVs.</div><div>Our projections indicate that by 2050, the total number of ICE vehicles in Saudi Arabia could reach 29.6 million, approximately 2.5 times the 2023 level. Scenario projections of EVs show that by 2050, the number of EVs could reach 14.8 million in the high-growth scenario, 11.9 million in the moderate-growth scenario, and 8.9 million in the low-growth scenario. By 2050, the electricity for EVs in Saudi Arabia is projected to reach 47.7 TWh per year in the high-growth scenario, 38.2 TWh per year in the moderate-growth scenario, and 28.6 TWh per year in the low-growth scenario.</div><div>The adoption of EVs in Saudi Arabia can play a pivotal role in helping the country achieve its ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions and curbing domestic oil consumption. Vehicle electrification can also support broader development objectives, such as enhancing inclusive mobility, improving local air quality, strengthening energy security, and advancing industrial policy initiatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"62 ","pages":"Article 101982"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145576106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101998
Santiago Budría , Eduardo Fermé , Diogo Nuno Freitas
Identifying at-risk populations is essential for designing effective energy poverty interventions. Using data from the HILDA Survey, a longitudinal dataset representative of the Australian population, and a multidimensional index of energy poverty, we develop a machine learning model combined with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values to document the short- and long-term effects of individual and contextual factors — such as income, energy prices, and regional conditions — on future energy poverty outcomes. The findings emphasize the importance of policies focused on income stability and may be used to shift the policy focus from reactive measures, which address existing poverty, to preventive strategies that target households showing early signs of vulnerability.
{"title":"Unveiling energy poverty trajectories: A longitudinal analysis using machine learning","authors":"Santiago Budría , Eduardo Fermé , Diogo Nuno Freitas","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101998","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101998","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Identifying at-risk populations is essential for designing effective energy poverty interventions. Using data from the HILDA Survey, a longitudinal dataset representative of the Australian population, and a multidimensional index of energy poverty, we develop a machine learning model combined with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values to document the short- and long-term effects of individual and contextual factors — such as income, energy prices, and regional conditions — on future energy poverty outcomes. The findings emphasize the importance of policies focused on income stability and may be used to shift the policy focus from reactive measures, which address existing poverty, to preventive strategies that target households showing early signs of vulnerability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"62 ","pages":"Article 101998"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145690977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101958
Imran Khan , Inayat Khan , Arshian Sharif , Adeel Ahmed , Mohd Ziaur Rehman
<div><div>Achieving sustainable energy management is essential for addressing global climate challenges and achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDGs 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and 13 (Climate Action). This study investigates how technological innovation (TI), economic complexity (EC), product complexity index (PCI), and renewable energy consumption (REC) interact to enhance natural resource efficiency (NRE) in resource-rich economies. Using panel data from 1995 to 2022, the study also explores the role of green technologies, digital readiness (DR), and mineral complexity (MC) in fostering a low-carbon future. The findings reveal that in the long run, TI and REC significantly enhance NRE, with coefficients of 0.932 and 0.235, respectively, while technological complexity (TC) and MC have negative effects (coefficients of <span><math><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>7</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>349</mn></mrow></math></span> and <span><math><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>3</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>732</mn></mrow></math></span>), indicating challenges in managing resource complexity. In the short run, the negative and significant error correction term (ECT) confirms swift adjustment to equilibrium, with TI and TC showing positive impacts on NRE (coefficients of 2.329 and 3.067), reflecting immediate efficiency gains from technological advancements. The causality analysis reveals that there is unidirectional causality from TI to NRE (W-Stat: 8.243; <span><math><mover><mrow><mi>Z</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>̄</mo></mrow></mover></math></span>: 2.828; <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>005</mn></mrow></math></span>), from NRE to financial readiness (FR) (W-Stat: 7.925; <span><math><mover><mrow><mi>Z</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>̄</mo></mrow></mover></math></span>: 2.580; <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>010</mn></mrow></math></span>), and from NRE to DR (W-Stat: 9.515; <span><math><mover><mrow><mi>Z</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>̄</mo></mrow></mover></math></span>: 3.819; <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>000</mn></mrow></math></span>). Similarly, REC exhibits unidirectional causality towards NRE (W-Stat: 8.511; <span><math><mover><mrow><mi>Z</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>̄</mo></mrow></mover></math></span>: 3.036; <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>002</mn></mrow></math></span>), indicating that the adoption of renewable energy sources significantly improves resource efficiency. Unlike previous studies that focus narrowly on energy use or innovation in isolation, this study offers a comprehensive empirical framework integrating digital readiness, economic complexity, and technological innovation to assess their combined impact on NRE. The application of panel cointegration, error correction modeling, and causality analysis over a multi-decade, cross-country dataset enhances the methodological rigor and generalizability of findings. The study also demonstrates the crit
{"title":"Advancing renewable energy strategies: Integrating technological innovation and economic complexity for sustainable resource management","authors":"Imran Khan , Inayat Khan , Arshian Sharif , Adeel Ahmed , Mohd Ziaur Rehman","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101958","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101958","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Achieving sustainable energy management is essential for addressing global climate challenges and achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDGs 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and 13 (Climate Action). This study investigates how technological innovation (TI), economic complexity (EC), product complexity index (PCI), and renewable energy consumption (REC) interact to enhance natural resource efficiency (NRE) in resource-rich economies. Using panel data from 1995 to 2022, the study also explores the role of green technologies, digital readiness (DR), and mineral complexity (MC) in fostering a low-carbon future. The findings reveal that in the long run, TI and REC significantly enhance NRE, with coefficients of 0.932 and 0.235, respectively, while technological complexity (TC) and MC have negative effects (coefficients of <span><math><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>7</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>349</mn></mrow></math></span> and <span><math><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>3</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>732</mn></mrow></math></span>), indicating challenges in managing resource complexity. In the short run, the negative and significant error correction term (ECT) confirms swift adjustment to equilibrium, with TI and TC showing positive impacts on NRE (coefficients of 2.329 and 3.067), reflecting immediate efficiency gains from technological advancements. The causality analysis reveals that there is unidirectional causality from TI to NRE (W-Stat: 8.243; <span><math><mover><mrow><mi>Z</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>̄</mo></mrow></mover></math></span>: 2.828; <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>005</mn></mrow></math></span>), from NRE to financial readiness (FR) (W-Stat: 7.925; <span><math><mover><mrow><mi>Z</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>̄</mo></mrow></mover></math></span>: 2.580; <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>010</mn></mrow></math></span>), and from NRE to DR (W-Stat: 9.515; <span><math><mover><mrow><mi>Z</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>̄</mo></mrow></mover></math></span>: 3.819; <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>000</mn></mrow></math></span>). Similarly, REC exhibits unidirectional causality towards NRE (W-Stat: 8.511; <span><math><mover><mrow><mi>Z</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>̄</mo></mrow></mover></math></span>: 3.036; <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>002</mn></mrow></math></span>), indicating that the adoption of renewable energy sources significantly improves resource efficiency. Unlike previous studies that focus narrowly on energy use or innovation in isolation, this study offers a comprehensive empirical framework integrating digital readiness, economic complexity, and technological innovation to assess their combined impact on NRE. The application of panel cointegration, error correction modeling, and causality analysis over a multi-decade, cross-country dataset enhances the methodological rigor and generalizability of findings. The study also demonstrates the crit","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"62 ","pages":"Article 101958"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145413259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101992
Mengyang Hou , Yingxu Shen , Jin Bai , Feifan Rong , Weinan Lu , Zenglei Xi
Digital economy plays a crucial role in promoting synergistic management of agricultural pollution control and carbon reduction. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022, this study measures the synergistic effect of pollution control and carbon reduction in agriculture (SEPCCR-Ag) and analyzes its spatial distribution. Building on an analysis of the average impact of digital economy on the SEPCCR-Ag, a geographically weighted quantile model (GWQR) is constructed to further examine the spatial heterogeneity and response heterogeneity in this impact. Results indicate that: (1) Although the overall trend of SEPCCR-Ag has slightly declined, there is a noticeable spatial imbalance in its distribution, without leading to polarization. (2) After addressing endogeneity issues, digital economy can significantly enhance SEPCCR-Ag, with its positive impact being more pronounced in the major grain-producing areas and the major grain-marketing areas. (3) The positive role of digital economy on SEPCCR-Ag exhibits both spatial heterogeneity and response heterogeneity. As the quantiles of synergistic effect rise, areas with higher levels of synergistic effect exhibit stronger positive influences of digital economy, with an expanding coverage area. The geographical range where digital economy has a stronger positive effect shifts from major grain-marketing areas along the southeast coast to major grain-producing areas in the Northeast, North China, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The spatial distribution of digital economy's positive impact stable across different quantiles. To achieve the multi-goals synergy of pollution control and carbon reduction in agriculture, policies should be tailored to local conditions, strengthening digital economy and technology support based on local farmland environmental endowments and socio-economic conditions.
{"title":"Digital economy and the synergy of pollution control and carbon reduction in agriculture: Dual heterogeneity perspective","authors":"Mengyang Hou , Yingxu Shen , Jin Bai , Feifan Rong , Weinan Lu , Zenglei Xi","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101992","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101992","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital economy plays a crucial role in promoting synergistic management of agricultural pollution control and carbon reduction. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022, this study measures the synergistic effect of pollution control and carbon reduction in agriculture (SEPCCR-Ag) and analyzes its spatial distribution. Building on an analysis of the average impact of digital economy on the SEPCCR-Ag, a geographically weighted quantile model (GWQR) is constructed to further examine the spatial heterogeneity and response heterogeneity in this impact. Results indicate that: (1) Although the overall trend of SEPCCR-Ag has slightly declined, there is a noticeable spatial imbalance in its distribution, without leading to polarization. (2) After addressing endogeneity issues, digital economy can significantly enhance SEPCCR-Ag, with its positive impact being more pronounced in the major grain-producing areas and the major grain-marketing areas. (3) The positive role of digital economy on SEPCCR-Ag exhibits both spatial heterogeneity and response heterogeneity. As the quantiles of synergistic effect rise, areas with higher levels of synergistic effect exhibit stronger positive influences of digital economy, with an expanding coverage area. The geographical range where digital economy has a stronger positive effect shifts from major grain-marketing areas along the southeast coast to major grain-producing areas in the Northeast, North China, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The spatial distribution of digital economy's positive impact stable across different quantiles. To achieve the multi-goals synergy of pollution control and carbon reduction in agriculture, policies should be tailored to local conditions, strengthening digital economy and technology support based on local farmland environmental endowments and socio-economic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"62 ","pages":"Article 101992"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145690301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101927
Carlos J.O. Trejo-Pech, Bishal Bista, T. Edward Yu, James A. Larson
Given the high level of uncertainty prevalent in the immature biofuels industry, the primary objective of this study was to identify and assess the risk factors that biofuel firms face. The study evaluated the risk factors, or specific risks, reported by biofuel firms to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over five years. The analysis was conducted for all firms in the sample, as well as for subsets of focused and diversified biofuel firms. Based on a biofuels industry risk structure derived from previous research, we coded and analyzed 4310 risk narrative disclosures, extracts from firms’ annual reports filed with the SEC. The study evaluated two risk metrics—prevalence and relevance—across 25 specific risks. Risk relevance, the most comprehensive metric, was validated by comparing it with two widely used risk metrics—which measure overall firm risk rather than specific risks—, the Z-score and the debt-to-equity ratio. Identification of risk metrics by quadrants, combined with quantile regression analysis, allowed us to identify the critical risks in the biofuels industry. The critical risks, particularly for focused biofuel firms, were biofuel regulation, biofuel markets, feedstock markets, conversion technologies, profitable operations, financing, and risk management. To a lesser extent, environmental and contracting risks were critical. The results of this study can guide policymakers and firm managers in developing a compelling policy mix and strategies to address the challenges faced by the biofuels industry.
{"title":"An analysis of the risk narrative disclosed by publicly traded biofuel firms","authors":"Carlos J.O. Trejo-Pech, Bishal Bista, T. Edward Yu, James A. Larson","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101927","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101927","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the high level of uncertainty prevalent in the immature biofuels industry, the primary objective of this study was to identify and assess the risk factors that biofuel firms face. The study evaluated the risk factors, or specific risks, reported by biofuel firms to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over five years. The analysis was conducted for all firms in the sample, as well as for subsets of focused and diversified biofuel firms. Based on a biofuels industry risk structure derived from previous research, we coded and analyzed 4310 risk narrative disclosures, extracts from firms’ annual reports filed with the SEC. The study evaluated two risk metrics—prevalence and relevance—across 25 specific risks. Risk relevance, the most comprehensive metric, was validated by comparing it with two widely used risk metrics—which measure overall firm risk rather than specific risks—, the Z-score and the debt-to-equity ratio. Identification of risk metrics by quadrants, combined with quantile regression analysis, allowed us to identify the critical risks in the biofuels industry. The critical risks, particularly for focused biofuel firms, were biofuel regulation, biofuel markets, feedstock markets, conversion technologies, profitable operations, financing, and risk management. To a lesser extent, environmental and contracting risks were critical. The results of this study can guide policymakers and firm managers in developing a compelling policy mix and strategies to address the challenges faced by the biofuels industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"62 ","pages":"Article 101927"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145413233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101974
Nasser Yimen, Paul Salomon Ngohe-Ekam, Alain Christian Biboum, Thierry Roger Mondoue Bouodo, Urbain Nzotcha, Rolland Djomi, Oumarou Hamandjoda
Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) are an effective tool for addressing the challenges of rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, their viability is limited by the lifespan, environmental impacts, high costs, and inefficiency of conventional energy storage technologies (battery and pumped-hydro). This study examines a hydrogen-based energy storage system, combined with photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy, for the electrification of Dargalla, a village in northern Cameroon. The goal is to meet community and agricultural electricity needs while optimizing the system. The analysis utilized HOMER software to simulate, model, and optimize the system. The optimal architecture consisted of a 50-kW photovoltaic (PV) array, a 10-kW wind turbine, a 10-kW fuel cell, a 30-kW electrolyser, a 25-kg hydrogen tank, and a 10-kW converter. The optimised system's net present cost and cost of energy were assessed at USD 138,202 and USD 0.443/kWh, respectively. Sensitivity analysis results showed that areas with high wind speeds would be mainly suitable for the proposed system. Moreover, with the upcoming decrease in the costs of fuel cells and PV components, such systems are expected to become more economically viable in the future, leading to the conclusion that integration of hydrogen-based energy storage technology in HRESs in SSA can effectively address the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDG) and the historic Paris Climate Agreement (HCA).
{"title":"Techno-economic optimization of hydrogen-based hybrid renewable energy systems for rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa: Case study of a photovoltaic/wind/hydrogen system in Dargalla, Cameroon","authors":"Nasser Yimen, Paul Salomon Ngohe-Ekam, Alain Christian Biboum, Thierry Roger Mondoue Bouodo, Urbain Nzotcha, Rolland Djomi, Oumarou Hamandjoda","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101974","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101974","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) are an effective tool for addressing the challenges of rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, their viability is limited by the lifespan, environmental impacts, high costs, and inefficiency of conventional energy storage technologies (battery and pumped-hydro). This study examines a hydrogen-based energy storage system, combined with photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy, for the electrification of Dargalla, a village in northern Cameroon. The goal is to meet community and agricultural electricity needs while optimizing the system. The analysis utilized HOMER software to simulate, model, and optimize the system. The optimal architecture consisted of a 50-kW photovoltaic (PV) array, a 10-kW wind turbine, a 10-kW fuel cell, a 30-kW electrolyser, a 25-kg hydrogen tank, and a 10-kW converter. The optimised system's net present cost and cost of energy were assessed at USD 138,202 and USD 0.443/kWh, respectively. Sensitivity analysis results showed that areas with high wind speeds would be mainly suitable for the proposed system. Moreover, with the upcoming decrease in the costs of fuel cells and PV components, such systems are expected to become more economically viable in the future, leading to the conclusion that integration of hydrogen-based energy storage technology in HRESs in SSA can effectively address the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDG) and the historic Paris Climate Agreement (HCA).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"62 ","pages":"Article 101974"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145462941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101969
Mohammad Mahdi Jafari, GholamReza Keshavarz Haddad
This study investigates the price elasticity of residential natural gas demand in Iran, using a sample form nationwide database of administrative household billing records from 2013 to 2023. Our work contributes to the literature by analyzing household-level natural gas demand during Iran’s policy-driven price reforms. The state-controlled market provides a quasi-experimental setting, where exogenous administrative price changes eliminate confounding market dynamics. To address key methodological challenges — particularly price endogeneity arising from increasing block pricing — we employ a simulated instrumental variable (IV) approach. The method exploits exogenous price variation independent of individual consumption levels, marking a novel application of simulated IV in natural gas demand analysis under increasing block pricing. Unlike previous studies that estimate a single average elasticity, we provide the disaggregated estimates of price elasticity by consumption tiers and seasons. We find substantial heterogeneity in price responsiveness: demand is more elastic in winter −0.15 than in summer −0.10, and elasticity increases across consumption tiers (from −0.08 in the first tier to −0.16 in the 12th tier). These findings offer valuable insights into pricing policy dynamics and demand behavior, with practical implications for policymakers aiming to promote energy efficiency, environmental sustainability, and equitable access to natural gas.
{"title":"Do price signals matter? Insights from households’ natural gas consumption in Iran","authors":"Mohammad Mahdi Jafari, GholamReza Keshavarz Haddad","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101969","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.101969","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the price elasticity of residential natural gas demand in Iran, using a sample form nationwide database of administrative household billing records from 2013 to 2023. Our work contributes to the literature by analyzing household-level natural gas demand during Iran’s policy-driven price reforms. The state-controlled market provides a quasi-experimental setting, where exogenous administrative price changes eliminate confounding market dynamics. To address key methodological challenges — particularly price endogeneity arising from increasing block pricing — we employ a simulated instrumental variable (IV) approach. The method exploits exogenous price variation independent of individual consumption levels, marking a novel application of simulated IV in natural gas demand analysis under increasing block pricing. Unlike previous studies that estimate a single average elasticity, we provide the disaggregated estimates of price elasticity by consumption tiers and seasons. We find substantial heterogeneity in price responsiveness: demand is more elastic in winter −0.15 than in summer −0.10, and elasticity increases across consumption tiers (from −0.08 in the first tier to −0.16 in the 12th tier). These findings offer valuable insights into pricing policy dynamics and demand behavior, with practical implications for policymakers aiming to promote energy efficiency, environmental sustainability, and equitable access to natural gas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"62 ","pages":"Article 101969"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145462952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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