Engineering Geology最新文献

{"title":"Creep behavior and microstructural evolution of unsaturated red-bed mudstone under coupled matric suction-stress effects","authors":"Guoqing Cai ,&nbsp;Fengjie Yin ,&nbsp;Hengshuo Liu ,&nbsp;Yanlin Su ,&nbsp;Rui Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2026.108558","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2026.108558","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Red-bed mudstone is a widely distributed sedimentary fill material in western China and exhibits pronounced moisture sensitivity, making it susceptible to long-term creep deformation under unsaturated conditions. To elucidate its time-dependent mechanical behavior and underlying microstructural control mechanisms, a series of multi-stage creep tests was conducted using a GDS double-cell unsaturated triaxial apparatus under controlled matric suctions of 100, 200, and 300 kPa. The microstructural evolution before and after creep was systematically investigated through scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP). The results indicate that red-bed mudstone exhibits strongly nonlinear, time-dependent deformation characteristics under coupled matric suction-stress conditions. At high creep loading levels, increasing matric suction markedly suppresses pore collapse and compressive deformation, leading to a progressive transition in the creep mechanism from compression-dominated to shear-dominated behavior. Matric suction primarily inhibits creep deformation by enhancing structural stability, whereas higher stress levels intensify structural rearrangement and compaction. Microstructural analyses further reveal that increasing suction reduces pore connectivity and promotes face-to-face contacts between platy minerals, thereby effectively slowing the creep rate. In addition, the regulatory effect of matric suction on creep stiffness shows a pronounced dependence on stress level, and creep stiffness exhibits a characteristic time-dependent softening behavior. These findings provide new insights into the long-term creep deformation mechanisms of unsaturated red-bed mudstone and offer valuable reference information for evaluating the long-term stability of high-fill station-yard subgrades under complex geological conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11567,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Geology","volume":"363 ","pages":"Article 108558"},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145957171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Capturing the hole effect in Qiantang River alluvial silt by cone penetration test","authors":"Yuguo Su ,&nbsp;Tiantian Ying ,&nbsp;Qiaokan Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaodong Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2026.108564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2026.108564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Soil spatial variability exhibits significant regional characteristics arising from various geological processes, weathering effects, and stress history during sedimentation. The spatial variability can influence the performance of geotechnical systems, and accurately capturing it is essential for effective reliability analysis. This study first compares the performance of the auto-correlation function and variance reduction function under different fitting strategies. Subsequently, the sampling strategies that yield the best performance in estimating the scale of fluctuation (SOF) are identified. After that, cone penetration test data are collected from sites along the Qiantang River to quantify the spatial variability parameters of the alluvial silt. Analysis reveals that the SOF and its associated uncertainty generally increase with expanding investigation domain length. The mean SOF rises from 0.691 m to 1.225 m across scales from 5 m to 15 m. The hole effect describes a spatial autocorrelation function that exhibits a non-monotonic, cyclical pattern as lag distance increases. A significant hole effect, identified in 75.6% of cases with SOF values ranging from 0.190 m to 1.135 m, may be associated with rhythmic tidal sedimentation processes. The cosine Whittle-Matérn model successfully captures the finer features of the spatial correlation structure, including the SOF, smoothness, and hole effect.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11567,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Geology","volume":"363 ","pages":"Article 108564"},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145975668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"3D seismic response and disaster performance of T-shaped intersecting valley fault sites: A case study of a simply supported beam bridge across fault","authors":"Ke Yin ,&nbsp;Zhiping Hu ,&nbsp;Rui Wang ,&nbsp;Xianglong Xu ,&nbsp;Boyu Wang ,&nbsp;Chao Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2026.108563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2026.108563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Irregular topography and faults significantly affect seismic responses, causing notable variations that may show within 1 km². This study investigates a simply supported bridge site in the Tianshan region, which features a fault and T-shaped intersecting valley topography. The site's actual topography is simulated to establish 3D finite element models, either considering or neglecting the influence of the fault, with 25 seismic waves input from different directions. The seismic response characteristics and mechanisms of the site and their impact on the simply supported beam bridge were analyzed. The results show that irregular topography and faults mainly affect the site's short-period (0.1–0.5 s) spectral acceleration. Short-period spectral acceleration at the peak is approximately twice that at the valley. In terms of the influence of the fault, seismic motion parallel or perpendicular to the fault strike enhances the short-period response near the fault by 1.6 or 4.9 times, respectively. When the seismic motion is parallel to the fault, the footwall response increases slightly, while the hanging wall undergoes no significant change. When the seismic motion is perpendicular to the fault, both the footwall and hanging wall responses increase, with a greater enhancement in the hanging wall response. This is likely related to the dynamic behavior of the fault zone and the seismic wave propagation mechanism. Considering the influence of the fault, energy dissipation, damage, and deformation of the bridge piers on both sides of the fault increase, especially when the seismic motion is perpendicular to the fault strike. The seismic resistance of the bridge in the direction perpendicular to the fault strike should be enhanced.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11567,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Geology","volume":"363 ","pages":"Article 108563"},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145962694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Force distribution due to impact of bidisperse granular avalanches against a retention barrier","authors":"Francisco Martínez ,&nbsp;Tomás Trewhela ,&nbsp;Simón Guerra ,&nbsp;Bastián Araya","doi":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2026.108585","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2026.108585","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Landslides, rock, debris, and snow avalanches are frequent disasters characterized by their destructive power. Retention structures are therefore essential for mitigating their effects, particularly near urban areas. Although widely studied, the role of grain-size polydispersity remains poorly addressed, even for the simplified case of bidisperse mixtures. In this work, we experimentally investigate the force histories generated by dense, dry, bidisperse granular flows impacting a rigid barrier at different relative concentrations <span><math><mi>C</mi></math></span> of the finer fraction. Experiments were conducted in an inclined flume, where a granular mass collided with a downstream rigid wall. A central strip of load cells measured the local force simultaneously under varying conditions. Time series of the force distribution, peak values, and the net force on the barrier were analyzed, showing a strong dependence on particle concentration, with maximum values often occurring near <span><math><mrow><mi>C</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>20</mn><mtext>%</mtext></mrow></math></span>. This behavior is interpreted as the outcome of size segregation and its inherent asymmetry, which can be incorporated into dynamic force predictions using a Bagnold velocity scaling. Deposit profiles were also characterized, showing significant morphological variability with respect to <span><math><mi>C</mi></math></span>. Finally, we propose empirical relations linking maximum loads to deposit properties, providing scaling laws that may be applied to the design and assessment of real retention structures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11567,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Geology","volume":"363 ","pages":"Article 108585"},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146033605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An implicit feature learning approach for automatic digital twinning of three-dimensional subsurface stratigraphy from limited boreholes","authors":"Zehang Qian,&nbsp;Chao Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2026.108568","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2026.108568","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital twinning of underground space is a transformative paradigm for life-cycle risk assessment, management, and operation of geotechnical infrastructure. A prerequisite for this transformation is the automated construction of subsurface geological domains from sparse borehole data with quantified stratigraphic uncertainty. However, most three-dimensional (3D) stratigraphic modelling methods are categorical variable (CaV)-based models and primarily rely on site-specific prior geological knowledge or calibration of geological settings to replicate intricate 3D spatial features. This inevitably involves significant computational burdens and frequent human intervention, which impede real-time data transmission and model updating. In this study, a continuous variable (CoV)-based 3D stratigraphic modelling method leveraging multiple Signed Distance Functions (MSDFs) and Bayesian Compressive Sensing (BCS) is proposed to address these challenges. MSDFs and a spatial partitioning technique are introduced to accelerate the transformation of borehole CaVs into CoVs before leveraging BCS for spatial interpolation of CoVs. Subsequently, random field samples of predicted CoVs are transformed back into the most probable geological domain with quantified uncertainty. The proposed implicit method is applied to both synthesized stratigraphy and real Nan-Chang Urban Rail project. Results demonstrate MSDF-BCS-3D excels in reconstructing 3D stratigraphy, comprising multiple interlayers and folded stratification, with uncertainty quantification in a non-parametric and near real-time manner.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11567,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Geology","volume":"363 ","pages":"Article 108568"},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146001416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparing geological process-based and engineering data-based approaches to characterizing rock mass heterogeneities: Insights from the Great Glen Fault, Scotland","authors":"Namgwon Kim ,&nbsp;Zoe K. Shipton ,&nbsp;Yannick Kremer ,&nbsp;Christopher D. Jack","doi":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2025.108529","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2025.108529","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In rock engineering, understanding variability in rock mass properties is essential for planning engineering mitigations. The differences between engineering and geological approaches to characterizing rock masses can result in varying estimates of mechanical and/or hydraulic properties. This study applies these approaches in parallel: mapping geological domains, fracture traces and Q-values. The aim is to reveal the relationship between variability in geological and engineering parameters at a case study site in the Torcastle block, a fault-bounded sliver within the Great Glen Fault (GGF) that has a complex internal architecture. Distinct geological domains are defined based on lithology (including two generations of dyke intrusion), foliation, faults, and fracture pattern. Fractures are classified into several geometrical categories mainly based on geometrical relationships with local faults and foliations: foliation-parallel, foliation-bounded, foliation-crossing, and ladder-like fractures. Their spatial distribution correlates with the local trend of pre-existing foliations and dykes. For the engineering characterisation we used Q-value mapping, modified for surface conditions, with a moving window approach. Low Q-value zones are spatially heterogeneous but concordant with areas of high fracture density and intersections (topological X and Y nodes), typically associated with: (1) major shear or fault strands and embedded blocks; (2) intruded igneous dykes; (3) areas where faults with different orientations abut; and (4) highly rotated blocks showing re-oriented local foliations. Cross-plots of Q-value against geological fracture and engineering parameters notably reveal that increased fracture connectivity and orientation variability contribute to low Q-values, resulting from abundant foliation-crossing fractures in highly rotated blocks with relatively low fracture density. The geological and engineering variabilities in the Torcastle block highlight the close interplay between the geological deformation history and resultant rock mass conditions. We argue that combining detailed structural geological insight into engineering rock mass characterisation will result in more robust forecasting of engineering properties in rock masses, thereby reducing geotechnical risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11567,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Geology","volume":"362 ","pages":"Article 108529"},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145845304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Probabilistic characterization of 3D geotechnical variability by fusion of multi-fidelity measurements using Gaussian Process Regression","authors":"Tengyuan Zhao ,&nbsp;Yatong Qi ,&nbsp;Zi-Jun Cao ,&nbsp;Ling Xu ,&nbsp;Dong Wang ,&nbsp;Wei Li","doi":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2025.108514","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2025.108514","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Characterization of three-dimensional (3D) subsurface geotechnical properties is essential for the safe design and analysis of geotechnical infrastructures. Due to the complex geological formation process, these properties exhibit strong spatial variability. However, because of time and budget constraints and/or limited technical access, high-fidelity measurements (e.g., standard penetration test, SPT) are typically sparse. Directly interpreting a 3D subsurface profile from such sparse high-fidelity data can lead to significant statistical uncertainty, which may propagate and compromise project safety. Meanwhile, although various low-fidelity measurements (e.g., geophysical data, measurements at similar geotechnical sites) are often available, they are not fully utilized in practice. This study proposes a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR)–based framework to fuse information from multi-fidelity measurements to facilitate the accurate characterization of site-specific 3D variability. The proposed method first trains separate Gaussian process models on each low-fidelity dataset and uses their combined predictions in a linear regression to approximate high-fidelity values. Next, a new GPR is used to fit the residuals to correct remaining discrepancy, producing a final calibrated estimate. The method is demonstrated on a synthetic 3D subsurface case and a real-world case. The results show the proposed method yields much lower prediction errors and uncertainty compared to using only the high-fidelity measurements, with <span><math><msup><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></math></span> values improved by approximately 50%/443% and MSE reduced by about 36%/72% in the numerical/real-life case. A sensitivity study further verifies the robustness of the proposed framework, showing that the method proposed in this study is capable of accurately and efficiently characterizing 3D geotechnical variability by fusing of multi-fidelity measurements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11567,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Geology","volume":"362 ","pages":"Article 108514"},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145881857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seismic site characterization using satellite-derived terrain morphometry and geological data: A machine learning approach for predominant frequency prediction","authors":"Harish Thakur,&nbsp;P. Anbazhagan","doi":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2025.108541","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2025.108541","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Predominant frequency (&lt;em&gt;fo&lt;/em&gt;) characterization across large seismically active regions remains challenging due to limited field measurements and cost constraints. Existing &lt;em&gt;fo&lt;/em&gt; mapping approaches rely exclusively on spatial interpolation methods (kriging, inverse distance weighting, natural neighbor) that redistribute measured values without incorporating terrain morphometry, geological context, or subsurface parameters as predictors. This study develops a DEM-based machine learning methodology for regional-scale &lt;em&gt;fo&lt;/em&gt; prediction in the Himalayan region and Indo-Gangetic Plains, addressing critical data scarcity in earthquake-prone developing countries. We compiled 4400 &lt;em&gt;fo&lt;/em&gt; measurements from 26 published HVSR studies using systematic georeferencing procedures to ensure spatial consistency. The methodology employs a two-stage regression kriging framework: (1) stacked ensemble machine learning models trained on 20 predictor variables using GLO-30 DEM morphometric parameters (elevation, slope, curvature indices), geological classifications, and bedrock depth information to capture nonlinear terrain-frequency relationships; and (2) ordinary kriging of model residuals to account for spatial correlation patterns. Cross-validation partitioning ensures unbiased residuals, while Bayesian optimization determines optimal hyperparameters for base model selection. Feature importance analysis reveals that valley bottom identification (MRVBF), geological formation characteristics, and bedrock depth provide primary predictive capability (Shapley values ∼0.15–0.18), demonstrating that terrain morphometry and subsurface parameters effectively control &lt;em&gt;fo&lt;/em&gt; variation at regional scales. The stacked ensemble achieves R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 0.516 and RMSE = 0.634 log units, with variogram analysis revealing spatial correlation extending 7.3 km and structured variance accounting for 52 % of model residuals. High-resolution &lt;em&gt;fo&lt;/em&gt; maps (50 m grid) generated for Delhi, Kathmandu, and Dhaka differentiate site response zones: low frequencies (&lt;1.0 Hz) in deep sedimentary basins versus high frequencies (&gt;3.0 Hz) in bedrock-controlled areas.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;This work represents the first regional-scale application of DEM-derived terrain morphometry for direct &lt;em&gt;fo&lt;/em&gt; prediction, utilizing a much larger compiled dataset for this purpose than previous basin-scale studies. Unlike previous studies that employed purely interpolation techniques without predictive parameters, this hybrid framework integrates physical predictors (terrain morphometry, geology, bedrock depth) with spatial modelling to produce more robust &lt;em&gt;fo&lt;/em&gt; maps. Results demonstrate that incorporating satellite-derived morphometric and geological parameters—readily available globally—significantly enhances prediction reliability beyond interpolation-only approaches. This cost-effective methodology enables preliminary seismic hazard assessment in data-sparse mounta","PeriodicalId":11567,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Geology","volume":"362 ","pages":"Article 108541"},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145919765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multiscale damage mechanisms of reservoir bank sandstone under prolonged immersion in pumped-storage hydropower projects: From microscale processes to macroscopic fracture","authors":"Hexing Zhang ,&nbsp;Qiang Xie ,&nbsp;Jiwei Jia ,&nbsp;Kunpeng Lu ,&nbsp;Fubo Yang ,&nbsp;Weichen Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2025.108532","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2025.108532","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The long-term stability of pumped-storage reservoir banks is strongly governed by damage evolution induced by prolonged water immersion. In this study, reservoir bank sandstone from the Laowuji pumped-storage site in Guizhou, China, was examined using computerized tomography (CT), nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to systematically characterize damage evolution from the mesoscopic to microscopic scales and to elucidate cascade effects across multiple scales. After 360 days of immersion, the mineral cement interface dissolution area increased from 12.51 μm² to 139.83 μm². Porosity rose from 9.45 % to 10.95 %, the small-pore fraction decreased to 80.11 %, and medium-to-large pores increased significantly, enhancing pore connectivity and heterogeneity. Concurrently, the P-wave velocity decreased cumulatively by 45.99 %, indicating a high sensitivity to microstructural degradation. MD simulations revealed that mineral interfaces weaken chemical bonding while providing lubricated and dilatable pathways, thereby facilitating early microcrack initiation and rapid propagation, ultimately compromising reservoir bank integrity and reducing seepage safety margins. The three-dimensional fracture spatial inhomogeneity index (FSI_3D) increased by more than an order of magnitude over 360 days, capturing the transition of fracture patterns from relatively simple through-going cracks to a complex, interconnected fracture network. On this basis, a zoned management strategy consisting of “shallow-sealing and deep-infiltration control” and a multi-parameter dynamic early warning system is proposed. These findings provide theoretical support and engineering guidance for long-term stability control of reservoir bank sandstone in pumped-storage systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11567,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Geology","volume":"362 ","pages":"Article 108532"},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145881859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting CO2 injection-induced fault reactivation: A hybrid approach and its application to the Illinois Basin–Decatur Project","authors":"Yao Zhang ,&nbsp;Qi Li ,&nbsp;Jianhua Zhang ,&nbsp;Haodong Cui ,&nbsp;Yiyan Zhong ,&nbsp;Yongsheng Tan ,&nbsp;Meng Jing ,&nbsp;Xiaying Li","doi":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2025.108536","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enggeo.2025.108536","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Geological CO₂ storage (GCS) is an effective method for reducing carbon emissions. However, as more such projects are deployed in the future, the associated risks of injection-induced fault reactivation require comprehensive assessment to ensure long-term and effective CO₂ storage. This study presents an integrated assessment of the Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP) through a hybrid approach combining physics-based modeling and probabilistic forecasting. A coupled CO₂-geomechanical model is developed to simulate CO₂ injection at CCS1 well. The fault reactivation risks have been systematically evaluated by analyzing near-well and far-field fault slip tendency indices, spatiotemporal evolution of Coulomb failure stress (CFS), seismogenic index (Σ), and magnitude probability distributions. Results demonstrate that while permeability-controlled pore pressure diffusion dominates fault reactivation for both near-well and far-well faults, poroelastic stresses may induce localized fault slip and provide stabilization during shut-in periods. The reactivation state is significantly controlled by fault geometry. Higher initial injection rates substantially facilitate fault instability compared to constant or gradually increasing injection schemes. Based on field data, the applicability of the seismogenic index for carbon storage sites has been validated. The low seismogenic index (Σ ≈ −4) for this site confirms limited seismic potential, and the probability of seismic magnitude below 2.27 exceeds 50%. Probabilistic modeling further indicates that a controlled injection rate ramp-up preferentially induces seismicity with low magnitudes. The proposed hybrid forecasting approach enables a more comprehensive evaluation of fault reactivation risks at carbon storage sites.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11567,"journal":{"name":"Engineering Geology","volume":"362 ","pages":"Article 108536"},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145893886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}