Static liquefaction landslides are among the most catastrophic geohazards, causing severe casualties and damage worldwide. The rapid mobility of this kind of landslide is the most spectacular in the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). However, it has been challenging to accurately predict initiation and failure in static liquefaction loess landslides. Here, we conduct a series of undrained triaxial compression tests on undisturbed and remolded loess samples in CLP, compiling a comprehensive database of undrained triaxial compression tests on saturated loess that combines current and published triaxial tests. Based on the database, we analyze the relationship between the normalized stress ratio and pore water pressure ratio within a stress state framework, then obtain two fitted parameters at the instability and failure points. The two ratios and the fitted parameters are integrated into the limit equilibrium equation to build a sliding-block model. The model accurately predicts the factor of safety against initiation and failure of eight static liquefaction loess landslides and one unfailed loess slope. The scanning electron microscope images and grain size distribution confirm that the packing structure affects shear behavior and the critical state locus in triaxial tests. Pore water pressure and boundary parameters in landslides are more sensitive to changes than those parameters extracted from the triaxial laboratory in the sliding-block model. Finally, we develop a hydro-mechanical coupling criterion for predicting the instability and failure of future static liquefaction landslides. These results show that the novel sliding-block model bridges the gap between triaxial shear parameters and slope field stability conditions. Our findings indicate that the model can serve as an effective method for predicting static liquefaction landslides in loess and other soil types.
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