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Prediction model of passenger transfer volume between scenic spots based on clustering and dynamic Bayesian network 基于聚类和动态贝叶斯网络的景区间客运量预测模型
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652773
Qiuxia Sun, Guoxiang Chu, Qing Li, Xiuyan Jia
In order to reduce the risks caused by congestion to scenic spot management and tourist safety, a dynamic Bayesian network model based on K-means++ clustering is proposed to realize the prediction of tourist transfer volume between scenic spots. Firstly, the K-means++ method is used to cluster the tourist transfer volume between scenic spots, we select the best number of clustering by the elbow rule, and the grade interval is determined by clustering results. Secondly, we consider the passenger transfer volume and tourist flow as the nodes of the dynamic Bayesian network, which can estimate the probability of tourist transfer from the upstream scenic spots to the target scenic spot, and the tourist volume of the target scenic spot is predicted. Finally, the confusion matrix is used to verify the validity of the proposed model. The case study shows: 1.) The prediction accuracy of the model can reach about 96%, which indicates that the model is suitable for tourist flow prediction. 2.) Compared to ARIMA, SVR, K-means + BN, and K-means + DBN, the proposed model has better prediction accuracy. 3.) The Bayesian network model outperforms deep learning models in interpretability.
为了降低拥堵给景区管理和游客安全带来的风险,提出了一种基于k -means++聚类的动态贝叶斯网络模型,实现了景区间游客流动量的预测。首先,采用k - meme++方法对景区间的客流量进行聚类,根据肘部规则选择最佳聚类数,并根据聚类结果确定分级区间;其次,将旅客转客量和旅游流量作为动态贝叶斯网络的节点,估计上游景区的游客向目标景区转移的概率,预测目标景区的游客数量;最后,利用混淆矩阵验证了所提模型的有效性。案例分析表明:1)模型的预测精度可达96%左右,表明该模型适用于旅游流量预测。2)。与ARIMA、SVR、K-means + BN和K-means + DBN相比,该模型具有更好的预测精度。3)。贝叶斯网络模型在可解释性方面优于深度学习模型。
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引用次数: 0
Construction and application of safety stock index based on MI-TVP-SV-VAR model 基于MI-TVP-SV-VAR模型的安全库存指数构建与应用
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652381
Xinghong Li, Zonglei Hu, Huaqiong Liu
As a part of stock, safety stock reduces the possibility of stock shortage and the cost of stock shortage, but the unreasonable setting of safety stock will increase the cost. This paper takes safety stock as the research object, introduces the financial field MI-TVP-SV-VAR model to construct safety stock index, and verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the index through an example. The research results show that the construction of safety stock index can scientifically guide enterprises to set up safety stock, product production and resource allocation and investment, and help enterprises to make rapid response to market changes.
安全库存作为库存的一部分,降低了库存短缺的可能性和库存短缺的成本,但不合理的安全库存设置会增加成本。本文以安全库存为研究对象,引入金融领域MI-TVP-SV-VAR模型构建安全库存指数,并通过实例验证了该指数的可行性和有效性。研究结果表明,安全库存指数的构建可以科学地指导企业建立安全库存、产品生产和资源配置与投资,有助于企业对市场变化做出快速反应。
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引用次数: 0
Performance study of vertical vibratory roller compaction of large thickness water stabilized layer 垂直振动压路机压实大厚度水稳定层的性能研究
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652410
Changmin Yang, Honggang Li, Jinghui Pei, Bowen Qiao, Jianzhe Chu, Ziyang Ye, Chaoyi Cui
In road construction, the compaction of the large-thickness water-stable layer is mainly done in layers. However, the construction period is long, and the integrity of the water-stable layer after compaction is not good. To determine the maximum false pavement thickness and rolling combination that can be compacted at one time by LSV220 single drum vertical vibratory roller. In this paper, two test sections with a virtual pavement thickness of 100 cm were set up to bury the sensors in layers. Through the sensor and sand filling method, the maximum thickness of the compacted pavement is 47cm, and the combination of rolling is "one static compaction, one Weak vibration, and three Strong vibrations" The BP neural network was constructed using the experimental data was used to predict the compaction by sensor data. The error between the predicted and measured values of this neural network was verified to be 1.44%.
在道路施工中,大厚度水稳层的压实主要是分层进行的。但施工周期长,压实后水稳层完整性不好。确定LSV220单鼓立式振动压路机一次可压实的最大假路面厚度和轧制组合。本文设置两个虚拟路面厚度为100 cm的试验段,分层埋设传感器。通过传感器加填砂法,得到的压实路面最大厚度为47cm,碾压组合为“1静压实、1弱振动、3强振动”,利用实验数据构建BP神经网络,利用传感器数据对压实进行预测。经验证,该神经网络的预测值与实测值的误差为1.44%。
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引用次数: 0
Research on operation scheme and capacity of airport runway under non-stop construction 不间断建设下机场跑道运行方案及容量研究
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652460
Q. Ye, Ping Xue, Xiaobo Zhu, Lei Guo, Junwei Hao
In recent years, the civil aviation industry developed rapidly. Many airports have faced reconstruction and expansion. Non-stop construction has a negative impact on the operating efficiency and capacity. A case study of the target 4F airport is carried out to analyze the operation scheme of runway closure under the condition of non-stop construction. Analyze the impact of runway closure on the airport according to the change of airport traffic volume, runway and taxiway operation efficiency and other factors. It has guiding significance for the project. Provide reference for the airport construction and provide reference basis for the subsequent reasonable arrangement of construction sequence.
近年来,民航业发展迅速。许多机场都面临着重建和扩建。不间断施工对运营效率和产能有负面影响。以目标4F机场为例,分析了不间断施工条件下跑道关闭的运行方案。根据机场交通量、跑道和滑行道运行效率等因素的变化,分析跑道关闭对机场的影响。对工程具有指导意义。为机场建设提供参考,为后续合理安排施工顺序提供参考依据。
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引用次数: 0
The level of developments of green logistics in Guangdong Province 广东省绿色物流的发展水平
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652737
Fan Zhang, Leili Liu
The current paper selected 12 indicators from four aspects to establish evaluation indicators of the level of development of green logistics in Guangdong Province. The active weights of those indicators were obtained using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which were then objectively empowered by the relevant economic statistics of Guangdong Province from 2010 to 2019 through the Entropy Weight Method (EWM) and combined with the results of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to obtain the comprehensive empowerment of the indicators. The primary factors influencing the developments of green logistics in Guangdong Province in the medium- and long-term were explored.
本文从四个方面选取了12个指标,建立了广东省绿色物流发展水平的评价指标。采用层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标的主动权值,然后通过熵权法(EWM)对2010 - 2019年广东省相关经济统计数据进行客观赋能,并结合层次分析法(AHP)结果,得到各指标的综合赋能。探讨了影响广东省绿色物流中长期发展的主要因素。
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引用次数: 0
Neural network prediction model for ultimate collision force in ship-bridge collision 船桥碰撞极限碰撞力的神经网络预测模型
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652792
Tianqi Wang
The numerical prediction of ultimate collision force in ship-bridge collision accident has a great influence on the safety of pier and bridge superstructure. However, ship-bridge collision problem is a complex nonlinear dynamic problem, and the linear empirical formula in the existing domestic and foreign standards cannot reflect the numerical value of collision force. In this paper, based on the data of established finite element model, the influence factors of maximum collision force are analyzed, four factors such as the time at which the maximum collision force occurs in the collision force curve, ship speed, hull quality and a coefficient which is related to the elastic deformation coefficient of the specimen of collision block (hull) and bridge pier are selected as the input of networks. BP and RBF neural network prediction models are established to predict the ultimate collision force of ship bridge collision. Combined with the prediction results, poor prediction accuracy of BP neural network is believed to be due to the over-fitting problem. Therefore GA-BP and PSO-BP algorithms are introduced to optimize the original BP neural network, of which the relative errors are 2.38% and 2.24% respectively and prediction accuracy is higher. The results show that it is feasible to predict the ultimate collision force of ship-bridge collision by using neural networks. Especially for the over-fitting problem of BP prediction model, the prediction accuracy of PSO-BP network after solving the over-fitting problem is convincing. The research in this paper successfully proves that the prediction of ultimate collision force by neural network in ship-bridge collision field is feasible with high precision accuracy, which provides scientific guidance and reference for the engineering safety of piers and other substructures in bridge design and construction.
船桥碰撞事故中极限碰撞力的数值预测对桥墩和桥梁上部结构的安全有着重要的影响。然而,船桥碰撞问题是一个复杂的非线性动力问题,现有国内外标准中的线性经验公式无法反映碰撞力的数值。本文在建立有限元模型数据的基础上,分析了最大碰撞力的影响因素,选取碰撞力曲线中最大碰撞力发生的时间、船速、船体质量以及与碰撞块(船体)和桥墩试件弹性变形系数相关的一个系数等4个因素作为网络输入。建立了BP和RBF神经网络预测模型,对船桥碰撞的极限碰撞力进行了预测。结合预测结果,认为BP神经网络的预测精度较差是由于过度拟合问题。因此,引入GA-BP和PSO-BP算法对原BP神经网络进行优化,相对误差分别为2.38%和2.24%,预测精度较高。结果表明,利用神经网络预测船桥碰撞的极限碰撞力是可行的。特别是对于BP预测模型的过拟合问题,解决过拟合问题后的PSO-BP网络的预测精度令人信服。本文的研究成功地证明了用神经网络预测船桥碰撞场的极限碰撞力是可行的,具有较高的精度,为桥梁设计和施工中桥墩等子结构的工程安全提供了科学的指导和参考。
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引用次数: 0
Data acquisition system of Internet of Things based on Kohonen multi-protocol adaptation 基于Kohonen多协议适配的物联网数据采集系统
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652742
Changhua Wang, Xiliang Zhang, Xihao Zhu, Hancheng Yu, Shuangjing Ni
With the development of highway information, according to the actual demand of highway electromechanical equipment management, this paper designs a multi-protocol internet of things data acquisition system to realize instant messaging and data sharing of electromechanical equipment. The Kohonen neural network is used to train the adaptive module of the existing input protocol. According to the eigenvalues of the header, the shaping number of the end bytes and the length of a single packet of the protocol, the function of automatically selecting the appropriate protocol is realized. In the later stage, the ability to learn more protocol adaptation independently can be realized by updating the protocol knowledge base on the internet of things platform. The results show that the average processing time of Kohonen network for each protocol data is about 109ms, and the average recognition rate reaches 95.45%. Kohonen network can be applied in traffic engineering field and realize the conversion of various information data of electromechanical equipment with different protocols into unified information data through protocol conversion rules.
随着公路信息化的发展,根据公路机电设备管理的实际需求,本文设计了一个多协议物联网数据采集系统,实现了机电设备的即时通讯和数据共享。利用Kohonen神经网络对已有输入协议的自适应模块进行训练。根据协议的报头特征值、结束字节整形数和单包长度,实现了自动选择合适协议的功能。在后期,可以通过更新物联网平台上的协议知识库来实现自主学习更多协议适配的能力。结果表明,Kohonen网络对各协议数据的平均处理时间约为109ms,平均识别率达到95.45%。Kohonen网络可应用于交通工程领域,通过协议转换规则实现将不同协议的机电设备的各种信息数据转换为统一的信息数据。
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引用次数: 0
Application of shuttle vehicle in urban underground logistics system 穿梭车在城市地下物流系统中的应用
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652774
Yuan-yi Xia, Z. Fu, Huaqiong Liu
With the in-depth study of underground logistics system, the design and application of its transportation tools have become the key. This paper will discuss the innovative application of intelligent equipment -shuttle vehicle in the underground logistics system, construct the three-level network and operation platform of the underground logistics system, and study the new mode of underground logistics system based on shuttle vehicle, so as to play a driving role in the research of underground logistics.
随着地下物流系统研究的深入,其运输工具的设计与应用已成为关键。本文将探讨智能装备——穿梭车在地下物流系统中的创新应用,构建地下物流系统的三级网络和运行平台,研究基于穿梭车的地下物流系统新模式,以期对地下物流研究起到带动作用。
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引用次数: 0
Research on evaluation ideas and index construction of China's scenic byway 中国风景道评价思路与指标构建研究
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652407
Xing-dong Yang, Fuqin Yue, Y. Liu, Pu Fan
In view of the problems such as the imperfect theoretical system and the lack of evaluation system for the development of scenic byway in China, this paper studies and puts forward the basic connotation, main characteristics and spatial structure of scenic byway on the basis of fully drawing lessons from the evaluation and identification standards of scenic byway in the United States and combining with the actual development of scenic byway in China. According to the essential characteristics of scenic byway, this paper puts forward the main evaluation ideas, evaluation dimensions and evaluation index composition of China's scenic byway and uses analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the index weight and overall evaluation score.
针对国内风景道发展理论体系不完善、评价体系缺失等问题,在充分借鉴美国风景道评价识别标准的基础上,结合国内风景道发展的实际,研究并提出了风景道的基本内涵、主要特征和空间结构。根据风景道的本质特征,提出了中国风景道的主要评价思路、评价维度和评价指标组成,并运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法计算指标权重和综合评价分数。
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引用次数: 0
An intelligent life-cycle carbon emission measurement system for highway pavement construction 公路路面施工全生命周期碳排放智能测量系统
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652745
Xiuge Wang, Xing Yang, Naifu Deng, Yawen Wang
Highway construction activities lead to higher carbon emissions and cause climate warming. Therefore, highway construction projects are the key emission reduction in China according to the "double carbon" target. This paper adopts the "bottom-up" measurement method and divides the project into item project, division project and unit project for carbon emission measurement and analysis. A carbon emission database based on MySQL is built to integrate the project quantity quota and carbon emission factors of highway projects. A carbon emission measurement system is developed by MATLAB to intelligently realize the carbon emission measurement and analysis of highway projects. The case analysis shows that the carbon emission measurement system proposed in this paper can better reflect the carbon emission data during the construction period and provide data support for energy saving and emission reduction.
公路建设活动导致碳排放增加,造成气候变暖。因此,按照“双碳”目标,公路建设项目是中国的重点减排项目。本文采用“自下而上”的测量方法,将项目分为项目项目、分区项目和单元项目进行碳排放测量与分析。建立基于MySQL的碳排放数据库,将公路项目的工程量配额与碳排放因子进行整合。利用MATLAB开发了一套碳排放测量系统,实现公路工程碳排放测量与分析的智能化。案例分析表明,本文提出的碳排放测量系统能较好地反映建筑施工期间的碳排放数据,为节能减排提供数据支持。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Frontiers of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
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