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Regional accident consequence simulation and risk assessment in the port area 港区区域事故后果模拟与风险评估
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652498
Yamei Zeng, Yuan Gao, Chunlei Zeng, Guoqing Sun
Due to the unpredictability of influence range of the explosion accidents of the dangerous goods in the coastal port area, it is necessary to conduct quantitative safety risk assessment in the port area. Currently there is no quantitative safety risk assessment standard for the hazardous goods in the port. This paper aims to explore and propose a regional safety risk assessment method based on the regional integration characteristics of coastal port area, comprehensively analyzes the rationality of safety capacity of port area. It is of great significance in guiding the risk control and emergency disposal work for the new or the existing port area.
由于沿海港区危险货物爆炸事故影响范围的不可预测性,有必要对港区进行定量的安全风险评估。目前尚无定量的港口危险货物安全风险评估标准。本文旨在探索并提出一种基于沿海港区区域一体化特征的区域安全风险评估方法,全面分析港区安全能力的合理性。对指导新建或既有港区的风险控制和应急处置工作具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Q-learning for the speed trajectory optimization of the freight train 货运列车速度轨迹优化的q -学习
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652584
Xuan Lin, Zhicheng Liang, Tiesheng Yan, Taiqiang Cao, Hua Cheng, Jian Mao, Rui Deng
The train speed trajectory optimization (TSTO) aims at finding the optimal speed trajectory considering the safety, energy efficiency, punctuality and stopping accuracy. From the perspective of mitigating the greenhouse effect, it’s quite significant to study the TSTO problem. This paper proposed an optimization algorithm based on Reinforcement Learning (RL). Firstly, a global optimization model using RL was established. In the model, the control sequence including the control regimes and their switching points was taken as the state. The optimization objectives were taken as the reward function. The adjustment of the position of the switching points in the control sequence was taken as the decision space of the agent. Secondly, an adjustment method of the control sequence based on the deep Q-learning and embedding matrix was proposed. The training data was sampled using the experience replay. The optimal control sequence was obtained through the iterative training of the neural network. Finally, the optimization algorithm based on RL was compared with the driving strategies based on the Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle (PMP) and the field test data. The results show that the energy consumption of the proposed algorithm is reduced by 0.16% in comparison with that of the PMP, which proves that the proposed method can be applied to the multi-objective optimization of the train operation. Comparing with the field test data, the energy consumption of the optimization algorithm is reduced by 4.89%, which demonstrates that the proposed method can be used to guide the drivers to drive the freight train energy-efficiently.
列车速度轨迹优化(TSTO)的目的是寻找考虑安全、节能、正点和停车精度的最优速度轨迹。从减缓温室效应的角度出发,研究TSTO问题具有十分重要的意义。提出了一种基于强化学习(RL)的优化算法。首先,建立了基于强化学习的全局优化模型。在该模型中,控制序列包括控制体系及其切换点作为状态。将优化目标作为奖励函数。将控制序列中开关点位置的调整作为智能体的决策空间。其次,提出了一种基于深度q学习和嵌入矩阵的控制序列调整方法。使用经验回放对训练数据进行采样。通过神经网络的迭代训练得到最优控制序列。最后,将基于RL的优化算法与基于Pontryagin极大值原理(PMP)的驾驶策略及现场试验数据进行了比较。结果表明,与PMP算法相比,所提算法的能耗降低了0.16%,证明所提方法可应用于列车运行的多目标优化。与现场试验数据相比,优化算法的能耗降低了4.89%,表明该方法可用于指导驾驶员高效驾驶货运列车。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of the demand for senior crews of Chinese sea-going vessels based on the combined forecasting method 基于组合预测法的中国海船高级船员需求预测
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652818
Peng Zhang, Zhuo Sun, Yi-Huei Su, L. Lv
China's shipping industry is developing rapidly, but there is a shortage of senior crew. Based on the basic data of Chinese sea-going ships, a linear weighted combination forecasting model based on regression forecasting method, quadratic exponential smoothing method, and GM (1,1) gray forecasting method was established, using average absolute deviation and residual standard deviation as indicators to evaluate the fitting accuracy of each single prediction model and combined prediction model. Although the forecast of the demand for Chinese sea-going crews from 2020 to 2029 shows a slight downward trend, some actions must be taken immediately to train more senior crews to alleviate the increasingly prominent imbalance between supply and demand.
中国航运业发展迅速,但高级船员短缺。以中国海船基本数据为基础,建立了基于回归预测法、二次指数平滑法和GM(1,1)灰色预测法的线性加权组合预测模型,以平均绝对偏差和残差标准差为指标,评价各单一预测模型和组合预测模型的拟合精度。虽然预测2020 - 2029年中国远洋船员需求呈轻微下降趋势,但必须立即采取措施培养更多高级船员,以缓解日益突出的供需失衡。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the location of regional emergency logistics centre based on improved backtracking algorithm 基于改进回溯算法的区域应急物流中心选址研究
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652324
Hao-ge Ma
Emergency logistics is an essential branch of modern logistics services, and the efficiency and safety of its transport have an important impact on maintaining social order after an emergency. When considering the location of emergency logistics distribution center, the lowest transportation cost should not be the main goal, but the shortest distribution distance should be designed and planned to ensure the timeliness and reliability of emergency supplies. This paper proposes a density coefficient optimization algorithm based on the backtracking algorithm. The results show that the algorithm reduces the complex iterative process in the backtracking step and can select the most suitable distribution centre location in a specific region, which has some practical significance for solving the location selection problem.
应急物流是现代物流服务的重要组成部分,应急物流运输的效率和安全对应急后社会秩序的维护有着重要的影响。在考虑应急物流配送中心选址时,不应以最低的运输成本为主要目标,而应设计和规划最短的配送距离,以保证应急物资的及时性和可靠性。提出了一种基于回溯算法的密度系数优化算法。结果表明,该算法减少了回溯步骤中复杂的迭代过程,能够在特定区域内选择最合适的配送中心位置,对解决配送中心选址问题具有一定的实际意义。
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引用次数: 0
Design of distribution station under the background of urban rail transit 城市轨道交通背景下的配电站设计
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652702
Xinhong Lv, Xinyi Lu, Huaqiong Liu
In order to solve the problems of road congestion and environmental pollution caused by distribution vehicles, the distribution mode under urban rail transit is proposed. In view of the reasonable transformation of the stations of the existing subway lines, the train compartment and platform design are mainly studied so as to make effective use of the two time intervals of the low passenger flow period and the non-passenger-carrying time, that is, to maximize the use of transportation resources, save transportation cost, realize high-speed, high-efficiency and standardization of city logistics.
为了解决配送车辆造成的道路拥堵和环境污染问题,提出了城市轨道交通下的配送模式。针对现有地铁线路车站的合理改造,主要研究车厢和平台的设计,以有效利用客流低期和非载客期两个时间间隔,最大限度地利用运输资源,节约运输成本,实现城市物流的高速、高效、规范化。
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引用次数: 0
Optimization of seaport companies' D&A systems based on system dynamics and evaluation models 基于系统动力学和评价模型的港口企业研发系统优化
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652356
Yiming Shao, Jiayi Guo, Zejun Li, Wen Yan, Zhiyi Zhu
Integrated data and analytics (D&A) systems are recognized for their ability to help companies ensure they have the right people, technology, and processes in place to manage, operate, use, and protect data resources. It is critical for port companies to develop the right strategy to refine the architecture of their D&A systems and integrate their data resources.In this study, system dynamics simulation, and principal component analysis are used to help seaport companies improve D&A systems and maintain their competitiveness in the future. First, starting from the three key parts of personnel, technology, and process, a 3zy comprehensive evaluation model is developed to evaluate the maturity of the D&A system. Second, we use Vensim to conduct simulations and build a seaport system dynamics model. Then, analyze the causal relationship between various influencing factors, and explore the influence of various factors on the port. Third, through the principal component analysis method, clustering multiple indicators to determine the overall skill level of the company and the degree of cooperation between people, technology, and processes has an important impact on the D&A system. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to calculate the degree of influence on the analysis indicators when the uncertain factors change. The conclusions obtained show the scalability of the D&A system maturity model in other ports and industries.
集成数据和分析(D&A)系统因其帮助公司确保拥有合适的人员、技术和流程来管理、操作、使用和保护数据资源的能力而得到认可。港口公司制定正确的战略来完善其D&A系统的架构并整合其数据资源是至关重要的。在本研究中,系统动力学模拟和主成分分析的应用,以帮助海港公司改进D&A系统,并在未来保持其竞争力。首先,从人员、技术、流程三个关键部分出发,建立了一个3zy综合评价模型,对D&A系统的成熟度进行评价。其次,利用Vensim软件进行仿真,建立海港系统动力学模型。然后,分析各种影响因素之间的因果关系,探讨各种因素对港口的影响。第三,通过主成分分析法,对多个指标进行聚类,确定公司的整体技能水平以及人、技术、流程之间的配合程度对D&A系统有重要影响。最后进行敏感性分析,计算不确定因素发生变化时对分析指标的影响程度。所得结论显示了该系统成熟度模型在其他港口和行业的可扩展性。
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引用次数: 0
Extraction and visualization of highway operation status indicators based on toll data 基于收费数据的高速公路运行状态指标提取与可视化
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652841
Feihu Ma, Sanguan Mei, Shiqi Deng
A visualization method of operational status indicators considering the characteristics of the highway itself is proposed. The valid fields are extracted from the historical toll data of the toll management center to obtain the status quo OD matrix, an optimized SUE model is proposed for re-allocation of traffic, and the results of multiple model allocations are compared to arrive at the best allocation scheme with root mean square error as the evaluation index. Combined with the historical toll data from May to December 2021 in Ganan, Jiangxi Province, an example validation is conducted, and the validation results show that the method can efficiently reflect the operation status of the road network as well as the traffic composition characteristics.
提出了一种考虑公路自身特点的运行状态指标可视化方法。从收费管理中心的历史收费数据中提取有效字段,得到现状OD矩阵,提出优化的SUE模型进行流量重新分配,并对多个模型分配结果进行比较,得出以均方根误差为评价指标的最佳分配方案。结合江西省赣南市2021年5 - 12月的历史收费数据,进行了实例验证,验证结果表明,该方法能够有效地反映路网运行状况和交通构成特征。
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引用次数: 0
Research on supply and demand of senior crew in coastal area based on combination forecast 基于组合预测的沿海地区高级船员供需研究
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652374
Yi-Huei Su, Zhuo Sun, L. Lv
In the face of the shortage of crew labor in the shipping market and the rising shipping companies, it is necessary to analyze the supply and demand situation in my country to ensure that the Chinese crew can develop in the direction of the dynamic balance of supply and demand. The senior crew put forward an effective labor resource allocation plan to improve shipping talents training program. Based on the number of in-service crew members of ships of 3,000 gross tonnages and above in my country's coastal navigation areas and the number of valid certificates held by senior crew members in each position, the actual number of in-service crew members will be used for demand. With the number of crew members holding valid certificates as the supply, a linear weighted combination prediction model based on quadratic exponential smoothing method, regression prediction method, and GM (1,1) grey prediction method is established to predict the number of senior seafarers for 2020-2026. Experimental research shows that from 2020 to 2026, the supply and demand of senior seafarers in my country's coastal areas are on the rise, but the supply is in short supply. In response to the problem of unbalanced development of supply and demand, it is necessary to strengthen school-enterprise cooperation, improve the attractiveness of seafarers, and pay attention to the career development planning of seafarers.
面对航运市场船员劳动力的短缺和航运公司的崛起,有必要对我国的供需情况进行分析,以确保中国船员能够朝着供需动态平衡的方向发展。资深船员提出了有效的人力资源配置方案,以完善航运人才培养方案。根据我国沿海航区3000总吨及以上船舶的在职船员人数和各岗位高级船员持有的有效证书数量,实际在职船员人数将用于需求。以持有有效证书的船员人数为供给,建立基于二次指数平滑法、回归预测法和GM(1,1)灰色预测法的线性加权组合预测模型,对2020-2026年高级船员人数进行预测。实验研究表明,2020 - 2026年,我国沿海地区高级船员供需呈上升趋势,但供给处于短缺状态。针对供需发展不平衡的问题,要加强校企合作,提高海员的吸引力,重视海员的职业发展规划。
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引用次数: 0
Liner ship speed optimization based on the influence of emission control area in waterway transport system 基于排放控制区影响的水路运输系统班轮航速优化
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652536
Jin Gao, Shuo Wang, Tao Liu, Z. Lei, Wei Meng
With the development of green transportation, many effective measures have been proposed in the waterway transport system. In order to save navigation costs and reduce carbon emissions under the emission control area (ECA) policy, this paper first establishes a mixed integer linear programming model to optimize the speed of the liner ship inside and outside the ECA; then a liner route is taken as an example to verify the model; finally, the speed optimization effect of the model under different fuel prices and carbon emission tax rates is analyzed through experiments. The results show that the proposed model can save voyage costs under the ECA policy and different carbon emission tax levels.
随着绿色交通的发展,在水路运输系统中提出了许多有效的措施。为了在排放控制区(ECA)政策下节约航行成本和降低碳排放,本文首先建立了混合整数线性规划模型,对ECA内外的班轮进行航速优化;并以某班轮航线为例对模型进行了验证;最后,通过实验分析了模型在不同燃油价格和碳排放税率下的速度优化效果。结果表明,该模型在ECA政策和不同碳排放税水平下均能节约航次成本。
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引用次数: 1
Evaluation of financing scheme of railway construction project based on improved fuzzy AHP 基于改进模糊层次分析法的铁路建设项目融资方案评价
Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI: 10.1117/12.2652559
Chang-Jie Chen
China's railway development coincides with the comprehensive deepening reform. In order to promote the smooth completion of construction projects by adopting the best financing scheme, aiming at the technical problems that the financing scheme of railway construction projects is difficult to determine, on the basis of constructing the evaluation index system of project financing scheme, and based on the improved analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the evaluation index weights are determined from the angles of financing structure, financing cost, financing risk, profitability and viability. Then, the comprehensive evaluation of the financing scheme of railway construction project is carried out, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by taking the Shanghai-Jiaxing-Ningbo railway project as an example. Combined with the evaluation results, relevant suggestions that are beneficial to the smooth implementation of the project are put forward. The results show that the proposed method can effectively evaluate the financing scheme of railway construction projects, and the corresponding research results can provide reference for the investment and financing of railway construction projects.
中国铁路发展与全面深化改革并行不悖。为促进建设项目采用最佳融资方案顺利完成,针对铁路建设项目融资方案难以确定的技术问题,在构建项目融资方案评价指标体系的基础上,基于改进的层次分析法和模糊综合评价法,从融资结构角度确定评价指标权重;融资成本、融资风险、盈利能力和可行性。然后,对铁路建设项目融资方案进行了综合评价,并以沪嘉甬铁路项目为例,验证了所提方法的有效性。结合评价结果,提出了有利于项目顺利实施的相关建议。结果表明,所提出的方法能够有效地对铁路建设项目融资方案进行评价,相应的研究成果可为铁路建设项目投融资提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Frontiers of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
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