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CEO Stock Ownership, Recall Timing, and Stock Market Penalties CEO持股、召回时机和股票市场处罚
Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2021.0175
Jessica L. Darby, D. Ketchen, George P. Ball, U. Mukherjee
Problem definition: Firms often delay the decision to recall faulty medical devices long after they become aware of a defect, thereby putting public safety at heightened risk. However, the factors contributing to these delays are not well-understood. To help address this gap, we examine whether and how CEO stock ownership influences the speed with which faulty medical devices are recalled and whether this influence varies with recall severity. We then examine whether the stock market penalizes firms differently based on recall decision-making speed and whether this penalty also varies with recall severity. Methodology/results: We collect data on 2,144 medical device recalls across 50 public medical device firms from 2002 to 2015. We use accelerated failure time models to test the effects of CEO stock ownership on the time-to-recall and event study methodology to examine how the time-to-recall influences stock market returns. Supplementary analyses shed further light on underlying mechanisms. Robustness checks demonstrate consistent results, including coarsened exact matching, reverse causality tests, Cox proportional hazard models, generalized linear regression models, and a mediation analysis. Firms whose CEOs possess greater ownership stakes recall medical devices more slowly, and this recall-slowing effect is accentuated for high-severity recalls. Delaying recalls magnifies the stock market penalty attributable to the recall, particularly for high-severity recalls. Managerial implications: Our study highlights an ownership characteristic of firms that are more likely to delay recalling faulty medical devices. Boards of directors can use insights from our study as they oversee product-quality decisions and determine the level and form of CEO compensation, and the FDA can use our findings to identify firms that might warrant extra scrutiny and better allocate its limited monitoring resources. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0175 .
问题定义:企业往往在意识到缺陷很久之后才决定召回有缺陷的医疗设备,从而使公共安全面临更大的风险。然而,造成这些延误的因素还没有得到很好的理解。为了帮助解决这一差距,我们研究了CEO持股是否以及如何影响缺陷医疗设备召回的速度,以及这种影响是否随着召回的严重程度而变化。然后,我们研究了股票市场是否会根据召回决策速度对公司进行不同的惩罚,以及这种惩罚是否也会随着召回的严重程度而变化。方法/结果:我们收集了2002年至2015年50家公共医疗器械公司2144次医疗器械召回的数据。我们使用加速失效时间模型来检验CEO持股对召回时间的影响,并使用事件研究方法来检验召回时间对股票市场收益的影响。补充分析进一步阐明了潜在的机制。稳健性检验显示出一致的结果,包括粗化精确匹配、反向因果关系检验、Cox比例风险模型、广义线性回归模型和中介分析。首席执行官拥有更多股权的公司召回医疗设备的速度更慢,这种召回减缓效应在严重召回中更为突出。推迟召回会放大召回造成的股市损失,尤其是对于严重程度较高的召回。管理启示:我们的研究突出了公司的所有权特征,这些公司更有可能推迟召回有缺陷的医疗设备。董事会在监督产品质量决策、决定CEO薪酬的水平和形式时,可以利用我们的研究得出的见解,FDA可以利用我们的发现来识别可能需要额外审查的公司,并更好地分配其有限的监控资源。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0175上获得。
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引用次数: 0
Offering Memories to Sell Goods? Pricing and Welfare Implications of Experiential Retail 用记忆卖商品?体验式零售的定价和福利影响
Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2021.0339
Nevin Mutlu, H. El-Amine, Ozge Sahin
Problem definition: In an environment where consumers’ rising valuation of Instagrammable memories drives their spending from products to experiences, retailers offer experiences to attract consumers back to their stores. Yet, it is not obvious under which settings consumers can benefit from these experiences and raise retailers’ profits. Methodology/results: We use a random utility model for consumer choice in both monopoly and duopoly settings. For the latter, we pose a game-theoretic model to analyze the equilibrium prices, profits, and consumer welfare for various problem cases. We show that medium-quality experiences can lower the product sales and store traffic below the level when no experience is offered. Sufficiently low- or high-quality experiences overcome this issue, making the consumers better off. Yet, the former presents the only profitable option when a single retailer in the market offers an experience. In contrast, when both retailers adopt experiences, low-quality experiences may not be profitable, and the retailers would need to adopt even higher-quality experiences, which lead to a “win-win-win” outcome for the two retailers and consumers. A fee structure for the experience elevates retailer profits but can turn stores into outlets where consumers visit to purchase experiences and not products. When experiential retailing is the common practice in the market, it enables “win-win-win” outcomes when free experiences fail. Managerial implications: Being the first to study this new retail format, our results contribute to the ongoing debate on the settings under which experiential offerings are beneficial for the retailers and consumers and highlight that there is no one-size-fits-all strategy. Our results show that experiences affect main product sales in nonobvious ways, especially in competitive markets. In a (post-)pandemic world where retailers try to attract consumers back to stores, we offer insights that can guide retailers in the process. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0339 .
问题定义:在一个消费者对instagram记忆的估值不断上升的环境中,他们的消费从产品转向了体验,零售商提供体验来吸引消费者回到他们的商店。然而,在何种环境下消费者可以从这些体验中受益,并提高零售商的利润,目前还不清楚。方法/结果:我们使用一个随机实用模型来研究垄断和双寡头垄断环境下的消费者选择。对于后者,我们提出了一个博弈论模型来分析各种问题情况下的均衡价格、利润和消费者福利。我们发现,中等质量的体验会使产品销量和商店流量低于不提供体验的水平。足够的低质量或高质量体验克服了这个问题,让消费者变得更好。然而,当市场上只有一家零售商提供体验时,前者是唯一有利可图的选择。相反,当两家零售商都采用体验时,低质量的体验可能无法盈利,零售商将需要采用更高质量的体验,这对两家零售商和消费者来说是“三赢”的结果。体验的收费结构提高了零售商的利润,但可能会把商店变成消费者光顾的商店,让他们购买体验,而不是产品。当体验式零售成为市场上的普遍做法时,当免费体验失败时,它可以实现“三赢”的结果。管理启示:作为第一个研究这种新零售业态的机构,我们的研究结果有助于探讨体验式产品对零售商和消费者有益的环境,并强调没有放之四海而皆通的策略。我们的研究结果表明,体验以不明显的方式影响主要产品的销售,特别是在竞争激烈的市场中。在一个(后)大流行的世界里,零售商试图吸引消费者回到商店,我们提供的见解可以指导零售商在这个过程中。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0339上获得。
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引用次数: 0
Product Recalls and Supply Base Innovation 产品召回和供应基础创新
Pub Date : 2023-05-18 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2023.1213
Fan Zou, Yan Dong, Sin-Geun Song, M. Rungtusanatham
Problem definition: Suppliers are increasingly involved in innovation activities that contribute to a firm’s product quality and introduce risks to firms’ quality control, leading to quality failures and recalls. This quality trade-off suggests the possibility of a nonlinear relationship between supplier innovation and product recalls, which is the focus of this research. Recall literature focuses on firms’ internal drivers of recalls, whereas anecdotal evidence increasingly points to the role of external drivers, such as suppliers. We contribute to the literature by examining supplier innovation as an external driver leading to recalls via quality and risk spillovers. Methodology/results: We collect and assemble a unique panel data set of consumer product recalls from firms and their supply bases (i.e., first tier suppliers). We estimate econometric models to examine the nonlinear relationship between supply base innovation, measured by research and development (R&D) intensity of the supply bases, and the likelihood of product recalls. We find a quadratic (i.e., U-shaped) relationship between the probability of recalls and supply base R&D intensity. We also find that this nonlinear relationship is critically related to three specific sources of risk: radicalness of supplier innovation, technological distance between firms and their suppliers, and complexity of supply base. Managerial implications: Our findings suggest that firms should be mindful of the quality trade-offs in encouraging supplier innovation to reduce product recalls. Further, to minimize recall risks, firms should better evaluate and manage the risks associated with external supplier knowledge that is novel and different and closely work with global suppliers to reduce coordination challenges in knowledge transfer and integration. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1213 .
问题定义:供应商越来越多地参与创新活动,这些活动有助于提高公司的产品质量,并给公司的质量控制带来风险,导致质量失败和召回。这种质量权衡表明供应商创新与产品召回之间可能存在非线性关系,这是本研究的重点。召回文献关注公司召回的内部驱动因素,而轶事证据越来越多地指向外部驱动因素的作用,如供应商。我们通过检查供应商创新作为通过质量和风险溢出导致召回的外部驱动因素,为文献做出贡献。方法/结果:我们收集和组装一个独特的面板数据集,从公司和他们的供应基地(即,第一级供应商)的消费品召回。我们使用计量经济模型来检验供应基地创新(以供应基地的研发强度衡量)与产品召回可能性之间的非线性关系。我们发现召回概率与供应基地研发强度之间呈二次型(即u型)关系。我们还发现,这种非线性关系与三个特定的风险来源密切相关:供应商创新的激进性、企业与其供应商之间的技术距离和供应基础的复杂性。管理启示:我们的研究结果表明,在鼓励供应商创新以减少产品召回方面,企业应该注意质量权衡。此外,为了最大限度地降低召回风险,企业应更好地评估和管理与外部供应商新颖和不同的知识相关的风险,并与全球供应商密切合作,以减少知识转移和整合方面的协调挑战。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1213上获得。
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引用次数: 2
Geographic Virtual Pooling of Hospital Resources: Data-Driven Trade-off Between Waiting and Traveling 医院资源的地理虚拟池:数据驱动的等待和出行之间的权衡
Pub Date : 2023-05-17 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2023.1225
Yangzi Jiang, Hossein Abouee Mehrizi, Jan A. Van Mieghem
Problem definition: Patient-level data from 72 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) hospitals in Ontario, Canada from 2013 to 2017 show that over 60% of patients exceeded their wait time targets. We conduct a data-driven analysis to quantify the reduction in the patient fraction exceeding (FET) target for MRI services through geographic virtual resource-sharing while limiting incremental driving time. We present a data-driven method to solve the geographic pooling problem of partitioning 72 hospitals with heterogeneous patients with different wait time targets located in a two-dimensional region into a set of clusters. Methodology/results: We propose an “augmented-priority rule,” which is a sequencing rule that balances the patient’s initial priority class and the number of days until her wait time target. We then use neural networks to predict patient arrival and service times. We combine this predicted information and the sequencing rule to implement “advance scheduling,” which informs the patient of her treatment day and location when requesting an MRI scan. We then optimize the number of geographic resource pools among the 72 hospitals using genetic algorithms. Our resource-pooling model lowers the FET from 66% to 36% while constraining the average incremental travel time below three hours. In addition, our model shows that only 10 additional scanners are needed to achieve 10% FET, whereas 50 additional scanners would be needed without resource sharing. Over 70% of the hospitals are not worse off financially. Each individual hospital, measured over at least two weeks, achieves a higher machine utilization and a lower FET. Managerial implications: Our paper provides a practical, data-driven geographical resource-sharing model that hospitals can readily implement. Our method achieves a near-optimal solution with low computational complexity. Using smart data-driven scheduling, a little extra capacity placed at the right location is all we need to achieve the desired FET under geographic resource-sharing. Funding: This paper is supported by the following grant: Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) [Grant CIHR-950-231935]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1225 .
问题定义:2013年至2017年,加拿大安大略省72家磁共振成像(MRI)医院的患者数据显示,超过60%的患者超过了他们的等待时间目标。我们进行了一项数据驱动分析,通过地理虚拟资源共享来量化减少MRI服务的患者分数超过(FET)目标,同时限制增量驾驶时间。本文提出了一种数据驱动的方法来解决地理池问题,将位于二维区域的72家具有不同等待时间目标的异构患者的医院划分为一组聚类。方法/结果:我们提出了一种“增强优先级规则”,这是一种排序规则,可以平衡患者的初始优先级和等待时间目标的天数。然后我们使用神经网络来预测病人到达和服务时间。我们将这些预测信息与排序规则结合起来,实现“提前调度”,当患者要求进行核磁共振扫描时,通知她的治疗日期和地点。然后,我们使用遗传算法优化72家医院的地理资源池数量。我们的资源池模型将FET从66%降低到36%,同时将平均增量旅行时间限制在3小时以下。此外,我们的模型表明,只需要10个额外的扫描仪来实现10%的场效应效应,而没有资源共享将需要50个额外的扫描仪。超过70%的医院的财政状况并不差。在至少两周的时间里,每家医院都实现了更高的机器利用率和更低的场效应晶体管。管理意义:我们的论文提供了一个实用的、数据驱动的地理资源共享模型,医院可以很容易地实施。我们的方法以较低的计算复杂度实现了近似最优解。利用智能数据驱动调度,在地理资源共享的情况下,在适当的位置放置一点额外的容量,就可以实现预期的场效应效应。资助:本文由以下基金资助:加拿大卫生研究院(CIHR)[赠款CIHR-950-231935]。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1225上获得。
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引用次数: 0
Taming the Long Tail: The Gambler’s Fallacy in Intermittent Demand Management 驯服长尾:间歇性需求管理中的赌徒谬误
Pub Date : 2023-05-08 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2023.1217
S. Bi, Long He, C. Teo
Problem definition: “Long tail” products with intermittent demand often tie up valuable warehouse space and capital investment for many companies. Furthermore, the paucity of demand data poses additional challenges for model estimation and performance evaluation. Traditional inventory solutions are not designed for products with intermittent demand. In this paper, we propose a new framework to optimize the choice of “replenishment timing” and “replenishment quantity” for managing the inventory metrics of long tail products, when evaluated over a finite horizon. Methodology/results: Our analysis is motivated by a recent interesting observation that the gambler’s fallacy phenomenon actually holds in a finite number of coin tosses. We use this phenomenon to analyze the inventory problem for intermittent demand to demonstrate that classical inventory models using KPIs such as fill rate, average cost per cycle, or average cost per unit, etc., must necessarily “bias” the underlying demand distribution to account for the finite horizon effect. We provide the exact closed-form expressions of the biased distribution to account for this effect in performance evaluation. The results show that the choice of replenishment timing and replenishment quantity is essential to superior performance on several key inventory metrics. Managerial implications: For long tail products, the belief that it is less likely for another demand to arrive shortly after a preceding one (the gambler’s fallacy), turns out to be true when performance is tabulated over a finite horizon, even if demands across time are independent. So it pays to delay the replenishment of depleted stocks to save on holding cost and warehouse space. Managers can optimize the replenishment timing, besides choosing the replenishment quantity, to optimize the performance metrics of several classes of inventory problems. This is especially useful for companies managing a large number of long tail products. Funding: This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant 72192832] and the 2019 Academic Research Fund Tier 3 of the Ministry of Education-Singapore [Grant MOE-2019-T3-1-010]. Supplemental Material: The e-companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1217 .
问题定义:具有间歇性需求的“长尾”产品通常会占用许多公司宝贵的仓库空间和资本投资。此外,需求数据的缺乏给模型估计和性能评估带来了额外的挑战。传统的库存解决方案不是为间歇性需求的产品设计的。在本文中,我们提出了一个新的框架来优化长尾产品库存指标在有限范围内的“补货时间”和“补货数量”的选择。方法/结果:我们的分析是由最近一个有趣的观察所激发的,即赌徒谬误现象实际上在有限的投掷次数中成立。我们使用这一现象来分析间歇性需求的库存问题,以证明使用kpi(如填充率、每周期平均成本或每单位平均成本等)的经典库存模型必须“偏向”潜在的需求分布,以解释有限的地平线效应。我们提供了有偏分布的精确封闭形式表达式来解释性能评估中的这种影响。结果表明,补货时间和补货数量的选择对提高几个关键库存指标的绩效至关重要。管理意义:对于长尾产品,认为在前一个需求之后不久出现另一个需求的可能性更小(赌徒谬误)的信念,在有限的范围内被制成表格时被证明是正确的,即使跨越时间的需求是独立的。因此,延迟补货以节省持有成本和仓库空间是值得的。管理者可以优化补货时间,除了选择补货数量,还可以优化几类库存问题的绩效指标。这对于管理大量长尾产品的公司尤其有用。项目资助:国家自然科学基金项目[Grant 72192832]和新加坡教育部2019年度学术研究基金项目[Grant MOE-2019-T3-1-010]资助。补充材料:电子伴侣可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1217上获得。
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引用次数: 0
Introduction to Special Section on Data-Driven Research Challenge 数据驱动研究挑战专题介绍
Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2023.1209
Gad Allon
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引用次数: 0
Acknowledgments to Editors and Reviewers (2022) 对编辑和审稿人的感谢(2022)
Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2023.1222
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引用次数: 0
Improving the Quality of In-Kind Donations: A Field Experiment 提高实物捐赠质量:一项实地试验
Pub Date : 2023-04-26 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2023.1214
Sindy De La Torre Pacheco, Mahyar Eftekhar, Chao Wu
Problem definition: Although in-kind donations contribute to charity’s triple bottom line (i.e., generating additional revenue for the charity, contributing to social welfare, and reducing environmental waste through rechanneling used items), inappropriate material donations impose additional costs to sort, process, or discard them. Minimizing the amount of undesired in-kind donations, however, is a challenge given charities’ sensitive relationship with their donors. This paper examines the effectiveness of behavioral interventions on improving the quality of in-kind donations gifted by individuals. Methodology/results: We conducted a field experiment to implement interventions motivated by two well-established behavioral mechanisms: information disclosure and social norm. We studied the reaction of 763 donors who were scheduled to make an in-kind donation at a local charity between October 31 and November 11, 2020. Our results show that using the social norm intervention effectively improved the quality of in-kind donations, whereas information disclosure, which is commonly used in practice as the industry standard intervention, was ineffective. We also conducted two postexperiment analyses. First, we collected additional data on 1,301 in-kind donations whose donors had received the social norm intervention during February 2021. Results show that the impact of the social norm intervention is stable over different time periods. Second, we studied the spillover effect of these interventions for a period of 12 months and did not find a negative long-term impact on in-kind donations. Managerial implications: A conservative estimation shows that implementing the social norm intervention reduced the junk donations received by 50% without having a negative spillover effect on donors’ in-kind donations or imposing any direct operating cost. Consequently, this field evidence provides an effective, cost-efficient, and scalable solution for charities to address the quality problem of in-kind donations. In addition, our results challenge the industry conventional practice of incorporating information disclosure in their communications with donors. Funding: This work was supported by Virginia G. Piper Charitable Trust [Grant: 2020 Initiative].
问题定义:虽然实物捐赠有助于慈善机构的三重底线(即为慈善机构带来额外收入,为社会福利做出贡献,并通过重新分配废旧物品减少环境浪费),但不适当的物质捐赠会增加分类,处理或丢弃的额外成本。然而,考虑到慈善机构与捐赠者之间的敏感关系,将不受欢迎的实物捐赠数量降至最低是一项挑战。本文考察了行为干预对提高个人捐赠实物质量的有效性。方法/结果:我们进行了实地实验,以实施信息披露和社会规范两种完善的行为机制驱动的干预措施。我们研究了763名捐赠者的反应,他们计划在2020年10月31日至11月11日期间向当地一家慈善机构进行实物捐赠。研究结果表明,社会规范干预有效地提高了实物捐赠的质量,而实践中常用的行业标准干预——信息披露则效果不佳。我们还进行了两次实验后分析。首先,我们收集了2021年2月期间接受社会规范干预的1301笔实物捐赠的额外数据。结果表明,社会规范干预在不同时期的影响是稳定的。其次,我们对这些干预措施的溢出效应进行了为期12个月的研究,并没有发现对实物捐赠有负面的长期影响。管理启示:保守估计,实施社会规范干预可以使垃圾捐赠减少50%,而不会对捐赠者的实物捐赠产生负面溢出效应,也不会增加任何直接运营成本。因此,这一现场证据为慈善机构解决实物捐赠的质量问题提供了一个有效、经济、可扩展的解决方案。此外,我们的研究结果挑战了将信息披露纳入其与捐助者沟通的行业传统做法。资助:本研究由Virginia G. Piper Charitable Trust [Grant: 2020 Initiative]资助。
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引用次数: 0
Improving Broader Sharing to Address Geographic Inequity in Liver Transplantation 改善更广泛的共享以解决肝移植的地域不平等问题
Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2023.1211
Shubham Akshat, Liye Ma, S. Raghavan
Problem definition: This paper studies the deceased-donor liver allocation policies in the United States. In the transplant community, broader organ sharing is believed to mitigate geographic inequity (intergeographic variation in transplant rates, patient survival rates, waiting times, and offers) in organ access, and recent policies are moving in that direction in principle. The liver-allocation policy has gone through two major modifications in the last 10 years. Despite these overhauls, geographic inequity persists. Methodology/results: In this study, we develop a patient’s dynamic choice model to analyze the patient’s strategic response to a policy change. We use this to evaluate several (existing and proposed) organ-allocation policies. On historical data, we show that our model’s predictions are more precise than the existing liver simulated allocation model. It more accurately captures (1) a patient’s change in organ offer acceptance probability (with their sickness level) and (2) the behavioral change of a patient in terms of organ offer acceptance probability with a change in policy. Next, we study the current acuity circles policy (a one-size-fits-all variant of broader sharing) and conclude that it results in lower efficiency (more offer refusals and a lower transplant benefit) than the previous share 35 policy and performs similarly on geographic equity measures. Finally, we show that broader sharing in its current form may not be the best strategy to balance geographic equity and efficiency. The intuition is that, by indiscriminately enlarging the pool of supply locations from where patients can receive offers, they tend to become more selective, resulting in more offer rejections and less efficiency. We illustrate that a policy that equalizes the supply (deceased donors)-to-demand (waiting list patients) ratios across geographies is better than acuity circles in achieving geographic equity at the lowest trade-off on efficiency metrics. Managerial implications: The key message to policymakers is that they should move away from the one-size-fits-all approach and focus on matching supply and demand to develop organ-allocation policies that score well in terms of efficiency and geographic equity. Supplemental Material: The e-companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1211 .
问题定义:本文研究美国已故供肝分配政策。在移植界,更广泛的器官共享被认为可以减轻器官获取方面的地域不平等(移植率、患者存活率、等待时间和服务方面的地域差异),最近的政策原则上正朝着这个方向发展。在过去的十年中,肝脏分配政策经历了两次重大修改。尽管进行了这些改革,但地域不平等仍然存在。方法/结果:在本研究中,我们建立了患者的动态选择模型来分析患者对政策变化的战略反应。我们用它来评估几种(现有的和提议的)器官分配政策。在历史数据上,我们表明我们的模型的预测比现有的肝脏模拟分配模型更精确。它更准确地捕获了(1)患者在器官提供接受概率方面的变化(随其疾病水平)和(2)政策变化时患者在器官提供接受概率方面的行为变化。接下来,我们研究了当前的尖锐圈政策(一种通用的更广泛分享的变体),并得出结论,它比以前的share 35政策导致更低的效率(更多的报价拒绝和更低的移植效益),并且在地理公平措施上表现相似。最后,我们表明,在目前的形式下,更广泛的共享可能不是平衡地域公平和效率的最佳策略。直觉是,通过不加选择地扩大患者可以接受治疗的供应地点池,他们往往会变得更有选择性,导致更多的治疗被拒绝,效率更低。我们的研究表明,在实现地域公平的最低效率衡量标准上,均衡供应(已故捐赠者)与需求(等候名单患者)比率的政策比急性圈更好。管理意义:对政策制定者的关键信息是,他们应该放弃一刀切的方法,把重点放在匹配供需上,以制定在效率和地域公平方面得分较高的器官分配政策。补充材料:电子伴侣可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1211上获得。
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引用次数: 0
Sales Information Transparency and Trust in Repeated Vertical Relationships 重复垂直关系中的销售信息透明度与信任
Pub Date : 2023-04-04 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2023.1208
Noam Shamir, Y. Yehezkel
Problem definition: We study a repeated interaction between a manufacturer and a retailer, where the retailer may share with the manufacturer past sales information. In our model, such information cannot improve the latter’s predictive capabilities of future demand, but it does allow him to infer past demand. Academic/practical relevance: Our main research questions are under what conditions the retailer and the manufacturer benefit from sharing such past sales information and how dynamic interaction and past sales information affect the efficiency of the distribution channel. Methodology: We model a repeated relationship between a manufacturer and a retailer, where demand fluctuates in an independent and identically distributed manner between periods. In each period, the retailer privately observes the current demand, and the manufacturer offers a menu of contracts to elicit the retailer to reveal its private information. The manufacturer may observe sales information that reveals past demand at the end of each period if the retailer chooses to share such information. Results: We find that even without sharing sales information, repeated interaction by itself enhances efficiency and profits for both firms. Past sales information further improves the channels’ efficiency and increases the manufacturer’s expected profit. Yet, past sales information increases (decreases) the retailer’s per-period expected profit when the retailer places a low (high) value on its future profits. Managerial implications: Our results provide a new strategic reasoning for sharing past sales information—as a way to increase trust in repeated vertical relationships. Furthermore, when the retailer can share a noisy signal regarding past demand, this may facilitate the exchange of sales information. We also consider the case of a financially constrained retailer and demonstrate that financial constraints may benefit the retailer as they limit the market power of the manufacturer. In contrast, the manufacturer and the channel’s efficiency are always worse off when the retailer is financially constrained. Funding: The authors acknowledge financial support from the Coller Foundation, the Eli Hurvitz Institute, and the Henry Crown Institute. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1208 .
问题定义:我们研究制造商和零售商之间的重复交互,其中零售商可能与制造商共享过去的销售信息。在我们的模型中,这些信息不能提高后者对未来需求的预测能力,但它确实允许他推断过去的需求。学术/实践相关性:我们的主要研究问题是在什么条件下零售商和制造商从共享这些过去的销售信息中受益,以及动态互动和过去的销售信息如何影响分销渠道的效率。方法:我们建立了制造商和零售商之间的重复关系模型,其中需求在不同时期以独立和相同分布的方式波动。在每个时期,零售商私下观察当前的需求,制造商提供一个合同菜单来诱导零售商透露其私人信息。如果零售商选择共享这些信息,制造商可以在每个时期结束时观察显示过去需求的销售信息。结果:即使不共享销售信息,重复互动本身也能提高双方的效率和利润。过去的销售信息进一步提高了渠道的效率,增加了制造商的预期利润。然而,过去的销售信息增加(减少)零售商的每期预期利润时,零售商对其未来利润的低(高)的价值。管理启示:我们的研究结果为分享过去的销售信息提供了一个新的战略推理——作为一种在重复的垂直关系中增加信任的方法。此外,当零售商可以共享关于过去需求的噪声信号时,这可能有助于销售信息的交换。我们还考虑了财务约束零售商的情况,并证明财务约束可能有利于零售商,因为它们限制了制造商的市场力量。相反,当零售商的资金受到限制时,制造商和渠道的效率总是更差。资助:作者感谢科勒基金会、Eli Hurvitz研究所和Henry Crown研究所的财政支持。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1208上获得。
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Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
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