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Managing Competition from Within and Outside: Using Strategic Inventory and Network Externality to Combat Copycats 从内部和外部管理竞争:利用战略库存和网络外部性打击模仿者
Pub Date : 2023-07-14 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2021.0182
Chen Jin, Chenguang (Allen) Wu, Ying‐Ju Chen
Problem definition: Prior studies have identified the role of downstream retailers’ strategic inventory in mitigating double marginalization within decentralized supply chains. Our work adds to this literature by introducing two relevant features that naturally appear in a dynamic environment: network externality and copycatting. We demonstrate how strategic inventory and network externality can be used to manage competition from within and outside the supply chain. Methodology/results: We develop a game-theoretical model to capture the strategic interaction within a brand-name supply chain, which enjoys positive externalities from early-period sales but faces competition from copycats in later periods. We show that copycats, on the one hand, deter the retailer’s strategic inventory by exerting external competition and on the other hand, can amplify the benefit of the retailer’s strategic inventory in allaying internal double marginalization and enhancing the supply chain’s external competitiveness. We further show that network externality, on the one hand, brings immediate gains to the supply chain’s external battle with copycats and on the other hand, creates internal inefficiency in the form of cross-period double marginalization best exhibited under the supplier’s dynamic contract. When network externality and strategic inventory are optimized jointly, we find that they are always complementary in increasing the supplier’s payoff but can be substitutive to the retailer under a large inventory cost and weak network externality. Managerial implications: Our work provides firms ways of managing decentralized supply chains in the face of copycats. We propose strategic inventory and network externality to combat copycats and provide normative guidance on their operating mechanisms. Funding: C. Jin received financial support from the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund [Tier 1 Grant 251RES2101]. Y.-J. Chen received financial support from Hong Kong RGC [Grants GRF 16500821 and HKUST C6020-21GF]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0182 .
问题定义:先前的研究已经确定了下游零售商的战略库存在缓解分散供应链中的双重边缘化中的作用。我们的工作通过引入在动态环境中自然出现的两个相关特征:网络外部性和复制来补充这些文献。我们展示了如何使用战略库存和网络外部性来管理来自供应链内外的竞争。方法/结果:我们开发了一个博弈论模型来捕捉品牌供应链中的战略互动,品牌供应链在早期销售中享有正外部性,但在后期面临来自模仿者的竞争。研究表明,模仿者一方面通过施加外部竞争来威慑零售商的战略库存,另一方面可以放大零售商战略库存在缓解内部双重边缘化和提高供应链外部竞争力方面的效益。我们进一步表明,网络外部性一方面为供应链与模仿者的外部战斗带来了直接收益,另一方面,在供应商动态合同下,以跨期双重边缘化的形式产生了内部效率低下。当网络外部性和战略库存共同优化时,我们发现它们在增加供应商收益方面总是互补的,但在库存成本大、网络外部性弱的情况下,它们可以替代零售商。管理启示:我们的工作为企业提供了在面对模仿者时管理分散供应链的方法。我们提出了战略盘查和网络外部性来打击模仿者,并对其运行机制提供规范指导。资助:C. Jin获得新加坡教育部学术研究基金[Tier 1 Grant 251RES2101]的财政支持。Y.-J。陈获香港研究资助局资助[拨款GRF 16500821及科大C6020-21GF]。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0182上获得。
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引用次数: 2
Optimal Electricity Imbalance Pricing for the Emerging Penetration of Renewable and Low-Cost Generators 新兴可再生能源和低成本发电机组渗透的最优电力不平衡定价
Pub Date : 2023-07-13 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2021.0555
Y. Ghiassi-Farrokhfal, Rodrigo Belo, Mohammed Reza Hesamzadeh, D. Bunn
Problem definition: With the rise of renewables and the decline of fossil fuels, electricity markets are shifting toward a capacity mix in which low-cost generators (LCGs) are dominant. Within this transition, policymakers have been considering whether current market designs are still fundamentally fit for purpose. This research analyses a key aspect: the design of real-time imbalance pricing mechanisms. Currently, markets mostly use either single pricing or dual pricing as their imbalance pricing mechanisms. Single-pricing mechanisms apply identical prices for buying and selling, whereas dual-pricing mechanisms use different prices. The recent harmonization initiative in Europe sets single pricing as the default and dual pricing as the exception. This leaves open the question of when dual pricing is advantageous. We compare the economic efficiency of two dual-pricing mechanisms in current practice with that of a single-pricing design and identify conditions under which dual pricing can be beneficial. We also prove the existence of an optimal pricing mechanism. Methodology/results: We first analytically compare the economic efficiency of single-pricing and dual-pricing mechanisms. Furthermore, we formulate an optimal pricing mechanism that can deter the potential exercise of market power by LCGs. Our analytical results characterize the conditions under which a dual pricing is advantageous over a single pricing. We further compare the economic efficiency of these mechanisms with respect to our proposed optimal mechanism through simulations. We show that the proposed pricing mechanism would be the most efficient in comparison with others and discuss its practicability. Managerial implications: Our analytical comparison reveals market conditions under which each pricing mechanism is a better fit and whether there is a need for a redesign. In particular, our results suggest that existing pricing mechanisms are adequate at low/moderate market shares of LCGs but not for the high levels currently envisaged by policymakers in the transition to decarbonization, where the optimal pricing mechanism will become more attractive. Funding: Rodrigo Belo acknowledges funding by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (UIDB/00124/2020, UIDP/00124/2020 and Social Sciences DataLab – PINFRA/22209/2016), POR Lisboa, and POR Norte (Social Sciences DataLab, PINFRA/22209/2016). Supplemental Material: The e-companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0555 .
问题定义:随着可再生能源的兴起和化石燃料的衰落,电力市场正在转向以低成本发电机(lcg)为主导的容量组合。在这一转变过程中,政策制定者一直在考虑当前的市场设计是否仍然从根本上符合目的。本研究分析了一个关键方面:实时不平衡定价机制的设计。目前,市场主要采用单一定价或双重定价作为不平衡定价机制。单一定价机制对买卖采用相同的价格,而双重定价机制使用不同的价格。欧洲最近的统一倡议将单一定价作为默认值,将双重定价作为例外。这就留下了双重定价何时有利的问题。我们比较了当前实践中两种双重定价机制与单一定价设计的经济效率,并确定了双重定价可能有益的条件。我们还证明了最优定价机制的存在性。方法/结果:我们首先分析比较了单一定价机制和双重定价机制的经济效率。此外,我们制定了一个最优定价机制,可以阻止潜在的lcg行使市场力量。我们的分析结果描述了双重定价优于单一定价的条件。我们进一步通过模拟比较了这些机制与我们提出的最优机制的经济效率。我们证明了与其他定价机制相比,所提出的定价机制将是最有效的,并讨论了其实用性。管理意义:我们的分析比较揭示了每种定价机制更适合的市场条件,以及是否需要重新设计。特别是,我们的研究结果表明,现有的定价机制适用于低/中等LCGs市场份额,但不适用于决策者目前在向脱碳过渡中设想的高市场份额,此时最优定价机制将变得更具吸引力。资金:Rodrigo Belo感谢funda para a Ciência e a tecologia (UIDB/00124/2020, UIDP/00124/2020)和社会科学数据库(PINFRA/22209/2016)、里斯本和北港(POR社会科学数据库,PINFRA/22209/2016)的资助。补充材料:电子伴侣可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0555上获得。
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引用次数: 0
Multiobjective Stochastic Optimization: A Case of Real-Time Matching in Ride-Sourcing Markets 多目标随机优化:专车市场实时匹配案例
Pub Date : 2023-07-13 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2020.0247
Guodong Lyu, Wang Chi Cheung, C. Teo, Hai Wang
Problem definition: The job of any marketplace is to facilitate the matching of supply with demand in real time. Success is often measured using various metrics. The challenge is to design matching algorithms to balance the tradeoffs among multiple objectives in a stochastic environment, to arrive at a “compromise” solution, which minimizes say the [Formula: see text]-norm–based distance function between the attained performance metrics and the target performances. Methodology/results: We observe that the sample average approximation formulation of this multiobjective stochastic optimization problem can be solved by an online algorithm that uses only gradient information from “historical” (i.e., past) sample information and not on the current state of the system. The online algorithm relies on a set of weight functions, which are updated adaptively over time, based on real-time tracking of the gaps in attained performance and the performance target. This allows us to recast the online algorithm as a randomized algorithm to solve the original stochastic problem. When the predetermined performance targets are attainable, our randomized policy achieves the targets with a near-optimal performance guarantee (measured by regret, or deviation away from the optimal performance). When the targets are not attainable, our policy generates a compromise solution to the multiobjective stochastic optimization problem, even when the efficient frontier for this stochastic optimization problem cannot be explicitly characterized a priori. We implement our model to address a challenge faced by a ride-sourcing platform that matches passengers and drivers in real time. Four performance metrics—platform revenue, driver service score, pick-up distance, and number of matched pairs—are simultaneously considered in the design of ride-matching algorithm, without prespecifying the weight on each performance metric. This mechanism has been extensively tested using synthetic and real data. Managerial implications: We show that, under appropriate conditions, all parties in the ride-sourcing ecosystem, from drivers, passengers, to the platform, can be better off under our compromise matching policy compared with other popular policies currently in use. In particular, the platform can obtain higher revenue and ensure better drivers (with higher service scores) are assigned more orders, and passengers are more likely to be matched to better drivers (albeit with a slight increase in the waiting time) compared with existing policies that focus on pick-up distance minimization. The ability to balance the conflicting goals in multiple objectives in a stochastic operating environment has the potential to contribute to the long-term sustainable growth of ride-sourcing platforms. Funding: This work was supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education AcRF Tier 3 [Grant MOE-2019-T3-1-010], the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology [Grant R9827], the Singapore Management Universit
问题定义:任何市场的工作都是促进供给与需求的实时匹配。成功通常是用不同的指标来衡量的。我们面临的挑战是设计匹配算法来平衡随机环境中多个目标之间的权衡,以达到一个“折衷”的解决方案,最小化达到的性能指标和目标性能之间基于规范的距离函数。方法/结果:我们观察到这个多目标随机优化问题的样本平均近似公式可以通过一个在线算法来解决,该算法只使用来自“历史”(即过去)样本信息的梯度信息,而不使用系统的当前状态。在线算法依赖于一组权函数,这些权函数随时间自适应更新,基于实时跟踪已达到的性能和性能目标之间的差距。这允许我们将在线算法重新定义为随机算法来解决原始的随机问题。当预定的性能目标可以实现时,我们的随机策略以接近最优的性能保证实现目标(通过后悔或偏离最优性能来衡量)。当目标无法实现时,我们的策略生成多目标随机优化问题的折衷解,即使该随机优化问题的有效边界不能明确地先验表征。我们实施我们的模型是为了解决乘车外包平台面临的挑战,该平台需要实时匹配乘客和司机。在设计乘车匹配算法时,同时考虑了平台收入、司机服务评分、接送距离和配对配对数量这四个性能指标,而没有预先指定每个性能指标的权重。这一机制已经使用合成数据和实际数据进行了广泛的测试。管理启示:我们表明,在适当的条件下,与目前使用的其他流行政策相比,在我们的妥协匹配政策下,拼车生态系统中的所有各方,从司机、乘客到平台,都可以获得更好的收益。特别是,与现有的以接送距离最小化为重点的政策相比,平台可以获得更高的收入,并确保更好的司机(服务分数更高)获得更多的订单,乘客更有可能匹配到更好的司机(尽管等待时间略有增加)。在随机操作环境中平衡多个目标中相互冲突的目标的能力,有可能有助于网约车平台的长期可持续增长。资助:本研究由新加坡教育部AcRF第3级(Grant MOE-2019-T3-1-010)、香港科技大学(Grant R9827)、新加坡管理大学(Lee Kong Chian Fellowship)和新加坡教育部AcRF第2级(Grant T2EP20121-0035)资助。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2020.0247上获得。
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引用次数: 2
Screening in Multistage Contests
Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2021.0378
S. Khorasani, Lakshminarayana Nittala, V. Krishnan
Problem definition: Firms seek to use the contest format to source solutions from a broader network of outside solvers. We study the application of the contest approach in multistage settings and show how and when screening of contestants between stages can produce improved contest outcomes. Methodology/results: We present an application-driven game-theoretic model to capture imperfections in screening using the true-positive rate (sensitivity) and the true-negative rate (specificity). Specifically, we consider a two-stage contest with a screening decision by the firm between the stages. Solvers face uncertainty about their probability of fit, and the final quality of the solution is dependent on the performance across both stages. We identify two mechanisms through which screening induces greater effort, namely the encouragement effect and the competitive contest effect, and characterize how screening should be tuned to the problem setting. We find that filtering out true negatives in contests with exogenous solvers’ probability of fit is optimal for solution-seeking firms. Our results indicate that in case of problems with endogenous probability of fit and less up-front complexity, coarse (imperfect) screening is beneficial in order to manage competition and stimulate greater effort, but it behooves the firm to resort to more accurate screening otherwise. We also derive nuanced results for the case when a seeker faces screening constraints and must balance screening sensitivity and specificity. Managerial implications: Our work provides firms an additional degree of freedom in terms of specific and sensitive screening to design and run contests and to better engage outside solvers. We derive actionable results and translate them into a managerial framework to help fine-tune the screening mechanism for improved contest performance. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0378 .
问题定义:企业寻求利用竞赛形式从更广泛的外部解决者网络中寻找解决方案。我们研究了比赛方法在多阶段设置中的应用,并展示了如何以及何时在阶段之间筛选参赛者可以产生更好的比赛结果。方法/结果:我们提出了一个应用驱动的博弈论模型,利用真阳性率(敏感性)和真阴性率(特异性)来捕捉筛选中的缺陷。具体来说,我们考虑一个两阶段的竞争,由公司在两个阶段之间进行筛选决定。求解者面临着其拟合概率的不确定性,而最终解的质量取决于两个阶段的性能。我们确定了筛选诱导更大努力的两种机制,即鼓励效应和竞争竞赛效应,并描述了筛选应如何调整到问题设置。我们发现,对于寻求解决方案的企业来说,在具有外生求解者的拟合概率的竞争中,过滤掉真负值是最优的。我们的研究结果表明,在内生匹配概率和较低的前期复杂性的情况下,粗(不完美)筛选有利于管理竞争和激励更大的努力,但在其他情况下,企业应该采取更准确的筛选。当寻求者面临筛选限制,必须平衡筛选敏感性和特异性时,我们也得出了细致入微的结果。管理意义:我们的工作为公司提供了额外的自由度,在具体和敏感的筛选方面,以设计和运行竞赛,并更好地与外部解决者合作。我们得出可操作的结果,并将其转化为管理框架,以帮助微调筛选机制,以提高比赛表现。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0378上获得。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Contract Design for a National Brand Manufacturer Under Store Brand Private Information 商店品牌私有信息下全国品牌制造商的最优契约设计
Pub Date : 2023-06-19 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2021.0187
Xin-yan Cao, X. Fang, Guang Xiao, N. Yang
Problem definition: We study an optimal contract design problem for a national brand (NB) manufacturer, which sells her product via a retailer. The retailer may introduce his store brand (SB) with private cost information. The manufacturer estimates that the retailer’s SB cost may be high or low with certain probabilities and offers a menu of two-part tariff contracts to screen the retailer’s cost information. Methodology/results: Following the mechanism design theory, we formulate the problem as a two-stage screening game to analyze the strategic interaction between the two players under asymmetric information. Despite the complexity resulting from type-dependent reservation profit of the retailer, we derive the NB manufacturer’s optimal contracts analytically. We prove that there exists a unique threshold such that when the NB cost is below the threshold, the manufacturer offers both types of retailers incentive-compatible contracts; when the NB cost is above the threshold, the manufacturer offers a menu of contracts to shut down the low-type retailer and engage the high-type retailer only. Managerial implications: We find that when the NB product becomes more competitive (i.e., a higher quality or a lower cost), both the NB manufacturer and the retailer are better off. This result implies that under asymmetric information, the retailer has incentive to enhance the NB product quality or reduce its cost. Additionally, the private information is valuable to both members only when a contract without shutdown is offered. Moreover, such information is more valuable to both players when the NB product becomes more competitive. However, when SB quality improves or when SB cost decreases, the value of information may increase or decrease to both supply chain members. Finally, we derive a surprising result that under asymmetric information, the expected consumer surplus may increase because of a lower SB quality or a higher low-type SB cost. Funding: G. Xiao acknowledges financial support from the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong [General Research Fund Grant PolyU 15505621]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0187 .
问题定义:我们研究了一个国家品牌(NB)制造商的最优契约设计问题,该制造商通过零售商销售其产品。零售商可以用自己的成本信息来介绍自己的商店品牌。制造商以一定的概率估计零售商的SB成本可能高或低,并提供一个两部分关税合同的菜单来筛选零售商的成本信息。方法/结果:运用机制设计理论,将问题构建为两阶段筛选博弈,分析信息不对称条件下双方的战略互动。尽管零售商保留利润的类型依赖带来了复杂性,但我们分析推导了NB制造商的最优契约。我们证明了存在一个唯一的阈值,使得当NB成本低于阈值时,制造商为两种类型的零售商提供激励相容的合同;当NB成本高于阈值时,制造商提供一个合同菜单,关闭低类型零售商,只与高类型零售商签约。管理启示:我们发现,当NB产品变得更有竞争力(即,更高的质量或更低的成本),NB制造商和零售商都更好。这一结果表明,在信息不对称的情况下,零售商具有提高NB产品质量或降低其成本的动机。此外,只有在没有关闭的合同提供时,私人信息对双方都是有价值的。此外,当NB产品变得更具竞争力时,这些信息对双方都更有价值。然而,当合成产品质量提高或合成产品成本降低时,信息的价值对供应链双方成员都可能增加或减少。最后,我们得出了一个令人惊讶的结果,即在信息不对称的情况下,期望消费者剩余可能会因为低SB质量或高low-type SB成本而增加。资助:肖国强感谢香港研究资助局的资助[一般研究基金资助PolyU 15505621]。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0187上获得。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of Hospital-Acquired Conditions on Readmission Risk: The Mediating Role of Length of Stay 医院获得性疾病对再入院风险的影响:住院时间的中介作用
Pub Date : 2023-06-13 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2022.0088
Bogdan C. Bichescu, Haileab Hilafu
Problem definition: Hospital-acquired conditions (HACs) represent undesirable complications that occur during a hospital stay. HACs can compromise patient safety and care outcomes and result in unnecessary socio-economic costs. Although hospitals are expected to reduce the incidence of HACs, few studies have examined the implications of HACs on other clinical outcomes and measures of hospital performance. This study contributes to the literature by exploring the relationship between exposure to a set of target HACs, length of stay (LOS) performance, and 30-day readmission risk. Methodology/results: To estimate the effects of HACs, we conduct econometric analyses using patient-visit-level data for heart attack, heart failure, and pneumonia patients hospitalized in the U.S. state of Florida during 2010–2014. We define LOS performance as the deviation of LOS from the Geometric Mean LOS (GMLOS), a standard LOS set by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. First, we find that exposure to HACs leads to a 37% increase in the odds of readmission and a 79% increase in LOS. Second, an increase in LOS is associated with a decrease in readmission risk, and this decrease is stronger for patients exposed to HACs. Third, LOS performance mediates the HACs-readmission risk relationship, such that the increase in the readmission risk of a HAC patient can be fully suppressed by the patient’s LOS. Fourth, we find that for patients exposed to HACs, the benefits of a longer LOS are almost entirely capitalized when the LOS becomes 65% longer than the GMLOS. Managerial implications: We demonstrate that, when addressing the consequences of HACs, clinicians also face indirectly a trade-off between reducing readmissions and controlling costs. We proffer LOS as a potential mechanism under hospitals’ control for mitigating the adverse effects of HACs on readmission risk. Thus, this study offers guidance to clinicians having to decide when to discharge patients with exposure to HACs. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.0088 .
问题定义:医院获得性疾病(HACs)是指住院期间发生的不良并发症。HACs可能危及患者安全和护理结果,并导致不必要的社会经济成本。虽然医院有望减少HACs的发生率,但很少有研究调查了HACs对其他临床结果和医院绩效指标的影响。本研究通过探索暴露于一组目标HACs、住院时间(LOS)表现和30天再入院风险之间的关系,为文献做出了贡献。方法/结果:为了估计HACs的效果,我们对2010-2014年美国佛罗里达州住院的心脏病发作、心力衰竭和肺炎患者进行了计量经济学分析。我们将LOS绩效定义为LOS与几何平均LOS (GMLOS)的偏差,GMLOS是由医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心设定的标准LOS。首先,我们发现接触HACs导致再入院几率增加37%,LOS增加79%。其次,LOS的增加与再入院风险的降低有关,对于暴露于HACs的患者,这种降低更为明显。第三,LOS表现在hacs -再入院风险关系中起中介作用,患者的LOS可以完全抑制HAC患者再入院风险的增加。第四,我们发现,对于暴露于HACs的患者,当LOS比GMLOS长65%时,较长LOS的好处几乎完全被抵消了。管理意义:我们证明,当解决HACs的后果时,临床医生也间接面临减少再入院和控制成本之间的权衡。我们认为LOS是医院控制下的一种潜在机制,可以减轻HACs对再入院风险的不利影响。因此,本研究为临床医生决定何时让暴露于HACs的患者出院提供了指导。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.0088上获得。
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引用次数: 0
Personalized Healthcare Outcome Analysis of Cardiovascular Surgical Procedures 心血管外科手术的个性化医疗结果分析
Pub Date : 2023-06-13 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2023.1227
Guihua Wang, Jun Yu Li, W. Hopp
Problem definition: This study addresses three important questions concerning personalized healthcare: (1) Are outcome differences between hospitals heterogeneous across patients with different features? (2) If they are, how do the best quality hospitals identified using patient-centric information differ from those identified using population-average information? (3) How much will hospitals’ pay-for-performance reimbursements change if their performance is measured based on patient-centric information? Methodology/results: Using patient-level data from 35 hospitals for six cardiovascular surgeries in New York State, we identify patient groups that exhibit significant differences in outcomes with a recently developed instrumental variable tree approach. We find outcome differences between hospitals are heterogeneous not only across procedure types, but also along other dimensions such as patient age and comorbidities. For around 80% of patients, the best quality hospitals indicated by patient-centric information are different from those indicated as best according to population-average information. Managerial implications: We compare potential outcomes when patients are treated at the best quality hospitals based on the two types of information and find complications could be reduced by using patient-centric information instead of population-average information. We also use our model to illustrate how patient-centric information can enhance pay-for-performance programs offered by payers and guide hospitals in targeting quality-improvement efforts. History: This paper was a finalist in the 2017 MSOM Student Paper Competition. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1227 .
问题定义:本研究解决了关于个性化医疗的三个重要问题:(1)不同特征的患者在医院之间的结果差异是否存在异质性?(2)如果是,使用以患者为中心的信息确定的最佳质量医院与使用人口平均信息确定的最佳质量医院有何不同?(3)如果医院的绩效是基于以患者为中心的信息来衡量的,那么医院的绩效报酬会有多大的变化?方法/结果:使用来自纽约州35家医院的6例心血管手术的患者水平数据,我们通过最近开发的工具变量树方法确定在结果上表现出显着差异的患者组。我们发现医院之间的结果差异不仅在手术类型上是异质的,而且在患者年龄和合并症等其他方面也是异质的。对于大约80%的患者来说,以患者为中心的信息所指出的最佳医院与根据人口平均信息所指出的最佳医院不同。管理意义:我们根据两种信息比较了患者在最好的医院接受治疗时的潜在结果,发现使用以患者为中心的信息而不是人口平均信息可以减少并发症。我们还使用我们的模型来说明以患者为中心的信息如何增强付款人提供的按绩效付费计划,并指导医院针对质量改进工作。历史:这篇论文是2017年MSOM学生论文竞赛的决赛选手。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1227上获得。
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引用次数: 1
Value of Algorithm-Enabled Process Innovation: The Case of Sepsis 算法驱动流程创新的价值:败血症的案例
Pub Date : 2023-06-09 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2023.1226
Idris Adjerid, M. Ayvaci, Ö. Özer
Problem definition: Algorithm-enabled decision support has an increasingly important role in supporting the day-to-day operations of healthcare organizations. Yet, fully realizing the value of algorithmic decision support lies critically in the opportunity to re-engineer the related processes and redefine roles in ways that make organizations more effective. We study how and when algorithm-enabled process innovation (AEPI) creates value in light of dynamic operational environments (i.e., workload) and behavioral responses to algorithmic predictions (i.e., algorithmic accuracy). Our context is an AEPI effort around a rule-based decision-support algorithm for early detection of sepsis—a costly condition that is the leading cause of death for hospitalized patients. We collaborated with a large U.S.-based hospital system and examined whether AEPI developed for sepsis care (sepsis AEPI) impacts patient mortality and when this impact is stronger or weaker. Methodology/results: We utilize a rich set of clinical and nonclinical data in empirically examining the impact of sepsis AEPI on patient mortality. We leverage the staggered implementation of sepsis AEPI across hospital units and conduct our estimation on a carefully matched sample. The matching utilizes data on patient vitals and the logic behind the algorithm to create a robust comparison group consisting of patient visits for which sepsis AEPI would have triggered an alert if it had been in place. Our empirical analysis shows that sepsis AEPI reduces the likelihood of death from sepsis (45% relative reduction in mortality risk due to sepsis). A higher-than-usual workload and an increase in the average number of inaccurate alert experience at a hospital unit (e.g., an oncology unit, which provides care for cancer patients), in general, reduces the effectiveness of AEPI. We also identify diminishing mortality benefits over prolonged periods of adoption; evaluation of the moderators over time helps explain this diminishing impact. Managerial implications: Our findings suggest that streamlining sepsis-care processes through a predictive algorithm (i.e., algorithm-based monitoring of real-time patient data and providing predictions, streamlined communication channels for coordinating care for a patient with sepsis prediction, and a more standardized process for sepsis diagnosis and treatment) can reduce the loss of life from sepsis. For the 3,739 sepsis patients in our study period, AEPI’s benefits would translate to 181 lives saved. We show that such value, however, is sensitive to operational and behavioral factors as the algorithm becomes a routine part of the day-to-day operations of the hospital. Funding: Financial support from University Hospitals is gratefully acknowledged. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1226 .
问题定义:支持算法的决策支持在支持医疗保健组织的日常运营方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。然而,充分实现算法决策支持的价值,关键在于有机会重新设计相关流程,并以使组织更有效的方式重新定义角色。我们研究算法支持的流程创新(AEPI)如何以及何时根据动态操作环境(即工作量)和对算法预测的行为响应(即算法准确性)创造价值。我们的背景是AEPI围绕基于规则的决策支持算法的努力,用于早期检测败血症-一种昂贵的疾病,是住院患者死亡的主要原因。我们与美国一家大型医院系统合作,研究了败血症护理的AEPI(败血症AEPI)是否会影响患者死亡率,以及这种影响何时更强或更弱。方法/结果:我们利用丰富的临床和非临床数据对脓毒症AEPI对患者死亡率的影响进行实证研究。我们利用跨医院单位的脓毒症AEPI的交错实施,并对仔细匹配的样本进行估计。匹配利用患者生命体征数据和算法背后的逻辑来创建一个强大的对照组,其中包括就诊的患者,如果败血症AEPI已经到位,则会触发警报。我们的实证分析表明,脓毒症AEPI降低了脓毒症死亡的可能性(脓毒症导致的死亡风险相对降低45%)。一般来说,医院单位(例如,为癌症患者提供护理的肿瘤科)的工作量高于平时,并且不准确警报经验的平均次数增加,会降低AEPI的有效性。我们还发现,随着收养时间的延长,死亡率下降;随着时间的推移对主持人的评估有助于解释这种逐渐减弱的影响。管理意义:我们的研究结果表明,通过预测算法(即基于算法的实时患者数据监测并提供预测,简化沟通渠道以协调脓毒症预测患者的护理,以及更标准化的脓毒症诊断和治疗过程)简化脓毒症护理流程可以减少脓毒症的生命损失。在我们研究期间的3739名败血症患者中,AEPI的益处将转化为181人的生命。然而,我们表明,随着算法成为医院日常运营的常规部分,该值对操作和行为因素很敏感。资金:感谢大学附属医院的财政支持。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1226上获得。
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引用次数: 0
Assortment Optimization for a Multistage Choice Model 多阶段选择模型的分类优化
Pub Date : 2023-06-02 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2023.1224
Yunzong Xu, Zizhuo Wang
Problem definition: Motivated by several practical selling scenarios that require previous purchases to unlock future options, we consider a multistage assortment optimization problem, where the seller makes sequential assortment decisions with commitment and the customer makes sequential choices to maximize her expected utility. Methodology/results: We start with the two-stage problem and formulate it as a dynamic combinatorial optimization problem. We show that this problem is polynomial-time solvable when the customer is fully myopic or fully forward-looking. In particular, when the customer is fully forward-looking, the optimal policy entails that the assortment in each stage is revenue-ordered, and a product with higher revenue always leads to a wider range of future options. Moreover, we find that the optimal assortment in the first stage must be smaller than the optimal assortment when there is no second stage and the optimal assortment in the second stage must be larger than the optimal assortment when there is no first stage. When the customer is partially forward-looking, we show that the problem is NP-hard in general. In this case, we establish the polynomial-time solvability under certain conditions. In addition, we propose a 2-approximation algorithm in the general setting. We further extend these results to the multistage problem with an arbitrary number of stages, for which we derive generalized structural properties and efficient algorithms. Managerial implications: Firms can benefit from our study and improve their sequential assortment strategies when their interaction with each customer consists of multiple stages. Funding: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation of China [Grant 72150002] and Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Mathematical Foundations for Artificial Intelligence. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1224 .
问题定义:在几个实际销售场景的激励下,我们考虑了一个多阶段分类优化问题,其中卖方根据承诺做出顺序分类决策,客户做出顺序选择以最大化其预期效用。方法/结果:我们从两阶段问题开始,将其表述为一个动态组合优化问题。我们表明,当客户完全近视或完全前瞻性时,这个问题是多项式时间可解的。特别是,当消费者完全向前看时,最优策略要求每个阶段的分类都是按收入排序的,收入较高的产品总是导致更大范围的未来选择。此外,我们还发现,当不存在第二阶段时,第一阶段的最优配种必须小于第二阶段的最优配种,而当不存在第一阶段时,第二阶段的最优配种必须大于第二阶段的最优配种。当客户具有部分前瞻性时,我们通常会显示问题是np困难的。在这种情况下,我们在一定条件下建立了多项式时间可解性。此外,在一般情况下,我们提出了一种2逼近算法。我们进一步将这些结果推广到具有任意阶数的多阶问题,并推导出广义的结构性质和有效的算法。管理启示:当企业与每个客户的互动包含多个阶段时,企业可以从我们的研究中受益并改进其顺序分类策略。基金资助:国家自然科学基金[基金号72150002]和广东省人工智能数学基础重点实验室资助。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1224上获得。
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引用次数: 1
Cross-Licensing in a Supply Chain with Asymmetric Manufacturers 非对称制造商供应链中的交叉许可
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1287/msom.2019.0477
Jingqi Wang, Tingliang Huang, Junghee Lee
Problem definition: Qualcomm, the largest cellphone chipmaker in the world, had adopted a cross-licensing agreement with its clients, downstream cellphone manufacturers. It requires cellphone manufacturers to allow each other to use their patents for free. This cross-licensing practice has received considerable scrutiny and attention around the world. We study the impacts of cross-licensing in a supply chain in which an upstream supplier requires its downstream competing manufacturers to cross-license, where they are asymmetric in their innovation capabilities. Methodology/results: We build a stylized model of a supply chain consisting of one supplier and two competing manufacturers and conduct game-theoretic analysis. We find that the supplier always prefers adopting cross-licensing ex post after manufacturers’ investments are sunk, but it may prefer committing to no cross-licensing ex ante. Specifically, the supplier should commit to not using cross-licensing if the inferior manufacturer’s cost of innovation is high or the effectiveness of cross-licensing is high. Furthermore, cross-licensing may increase innovation, the superior manufacturer’s profit, and social welfare under certain conditions. Interestingly, when the superior manufacturer’s cost advantage is intermediate, the inferior manufacturer’s innovation level first increases and then decreases in the effectiveness of cross-licensing. In addition, the inferior manufacturer’s profit also first increases and then decreases as the effectiveness level of cross-licensing increases. The cross-licensing policy benefits consumers when its effectiveness level is low and the superior manufacturer’s innovation cost is either high or low. Managerial implications: Our results provide guidance on when a supplier should adopt the cross-licensing strategy. For policy makers, our findings show that cross-licensing can be beneficial for consumers and the society. In particular, to increase social welfare, policy makers may consider encouraging cross-licensing with low effectiveness level when the superior manufacturer’s innovation cost is either low or high. Funding: This research is supported by Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars, Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province, China [Grant 2022B1515020027]. Supplemental Material: The e-companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2019.0477 .
问题定义:全球最大的手机芯片制造商高通(Qualcomm)与其客户——下游手机制造商——达成了一项交叉许可协议。它要求手机制造商允许彼此免费使用自己的专利。这种交叉授权的做法在世界范围内受到了相当多的审查和关注。我们研究了供应链中交叉许可的影响,其中上游供应商要求其下游竞争制造商交叉许可,其中他们的创新能力是不对称的。方法/结果:我们建立了一个由一个供应商和两个竞争制造商组成的供应链的风格化模型,并进行博弈论分析。我们发现,在制造商的投资沉没后,供应商总是倾向于事后采用交叉许可,但它可能更倾向于事前承诺不采用交叉许可。具体而言,如果劣势制造商的创新成本较高或交叉许可的有效性较高,供应商应承诺不使用交叉许可。此外,在一定条件下,交叉许可可以促进创新,提高优势制造商的利润和社会福利。有趣的是,当优势制造商的成本优势处于中等水平时,劣势制造商的创新水平在交叉许可的有效性上先上升后下降。此外,劣势厂商的利润也会随着交叉许可有效性水平的提高先增加后减少。交叉许可政策在效率水平较低、优势厂商创新成本较高或较低的情况下有利于消费者。管理意义:我们的结果为供应商何时应该采用交叉许可策略提供了指导。对于政策制定者来说,我们的研究结果表明,交叉许可对消费者和社会都是有益的。特别是在优势厂商的创新成本较低或较高的情况下,为了增加社会福利,政策制定者可以考虑鼓励低效率水平的交叉许可。基金资助:本研究得到广东省自然科学基金杰出青年基金资助[基金资助:2022B1515020027]。补充材料:电子伴侣可在https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2019.0477上获得。
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引用次数: 1
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Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
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