We document abnormal correlations between hedge funds' performance among managers sharing similar elite socio-economic backgrounds. In particular, Columbia, Harvard, University of Pennsylvania, Stanford, and NYU alumni are highly correlated among themselves. We take steps toward linking this phenomenon to a shared information pool with a quasi-natural experiment: the 2009 Galleon Capital insider trading scandal. The difference-in-difference analysis shows a significant reduction in returns of the elite managers following the scandal. Finally, we present evidences suggesting that investors recognize this pool's value, as funds likely to have access to elite information are associated with 55% higher assets under management at launch.
{"title":"Information Pools and Insider Trading: A Snapshot of America's Financial Elite.","authors":"Antoine Didisheim, Luciano Somoza","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3809908","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3809908","url":null,"abstract":"We document abnormal correlations between hedge funds' performance among managers sharing similar elite socio-economic backgrounds. In particular, Columbia, Harvard, University of Pennsylvania, Stanford, and NYU alumni are highly correlated among themselves. We take steps toward linking this phenomenon to a shared information pool with a quasi-natural experiment: the 2009 Galleon Capital insider trading scandal. The difference-in-difference analysis shows a significant reduction in returns of the elite managers following the scandal. Finally, we present evidences suggesting that investors recognize this pool's value, as funds likely to have access to elite information are associated with 55% higher assets under management at launch.","PeriodicalId":120099,"journal":{"name":"Economic Anthropology eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121056237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the long-term effect of international trade and financial linkages on the rise in stock return comovements. Our sample covers 47 advanced and emerging markets from 1973 to 2018. We use dynamic panel models that are appropriate for estimating long-term relationships in macro panel data. The results indicate that the rise in comovements among advanced markets is due to trade globalization. Conversely, growing comovements among emerging markets stem from equity market liberalization (i.e., increased foreign holdings of emerging stocks). We thus show that international shareholders can spread shocks across emerging markets, which is a key concern for financial stability and highlights the existence of an international diversification puzzle.
{"title":"The Long-Term Effect of Globalization on International Stock Return Comovements","authors":"Tristan Jourde","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3916844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3916844","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the long-term effect of international trade and financial linkages on the rise in stock return comovements. Our sample covers 47 advanced and emerging markets from 1973 to 2018. We use dynamic panel models that are appropriate for estimating long-term relationships in macro panel data. The results indicate that the rise in comovements among advanced markets is due to trade globalization. Conversely, growing comovements among emerging markets stem from equity market liberalization (i.e., increased foreign holdings of emerging stocks). We thus show that international shareholders can spread shocks across emerging markets, which is a key concern for financial stability and highlights the existence of an international diversification puzzle.","PeriodicalId":120099,"journal":{"name":"Economic Anthropology eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115868219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper detects and offers solutions to alleviate COVID-19 induced inequality. The COVID-19 external shock now clearly created economic disparity between nations, industries and societal groups. This paper discusses rising inequality trends in finance, healthcare and digitalization exacerbated during the global COVID pandemic. It then discusses the most novel and cutting-edge innovations in bridging the finance-world and real economy inequality gap, fostering digitalization advancements and common goods oriented access to affordable healthcare but also equality in connectivity and tech-skills development to overcome unforeseen inquality in the shadow of COVID-19.
{"title":"Alleviating COVID-19 Inequality","authors":"Julia M. Puaschunder","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3787825","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3787825","url":null,"abstract":"This paper detects and offers solutions to alleviate COVID-19 induced inequality. The COVID-19 external shock now clearly created economic disparity between nations, industries and societal groups. This paper discusses rising inequality trends in finance, healthcare and digitalization exacerbated during the global COVID pandemic. It then discusses the most novel and cutting-edge innovations in bridging the finance-world and real economy inequality gap, fostering digitalization advancements and common goods oriented access to affordable healthcare but also equality in connectivity and tech-skills development to overcome unforeseen inquality in the shadow of COVID-19.","PeriodicalId":120099,"journal":{"name":"Economic Anthropology eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131688198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of the paper is to shed light on how two factors – central bank’s design and central bankers’ preferences – progressively assumed a crucial role in the evolution of monetary policy economics in the last four decades. The two factors jointly identify the importance of central bank governance in influencing monetary policy decisions through their interactions with the monetary policy rules, given the assumptions about how macroeconomic systems work.
{"title":"Central Bank Governance in Monetary Policy Economics (1981-2020)","authors":"D. Masciandaro","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3769388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3769388","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the paper is to shed light on how two factors – central bank’s design and central bankers’ preferences – progressively assumed a crucial role in the evolution of monetary policy economics in the last four decades. The two factors jointly identify the importance of central bank governance in influencing monetary policy decisions through their interactions with the monetary policy rules, given the assumptions about how macroeconomic systems work.","PeriodicalId":120099,"journal":{"name":"Economic Anthropology eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115237395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-30DOI: 10.35609/jber.2020.5.3(3)
GATR Journals Submitter, S. Taasim, A. Daud
Objective – Prior to the East ASEAN Growth Area (EAGA) in ASEAN, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines (BIMP) took in an inflow of immigrants to support growth. The more they depended on foreign labour, the issue of gender inequality in the job sector became an issue that is hindering prosperity. Methodology/Technique – The research was aimed to identify the relation between unemployment rate from the gender perspective and economic growth of BIMP-EAGA by using two methods, namely Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS). Annual time series data for the period of 1990 to 2018 was employed. Findings & Novelty – The result was contrary to Okun's law which says that there is a negative relation between the male unemployment rate and GDP. This study found that the female unemployment rate did not affect GDP and was insignificant. Policies that benefit and increase the participation of female workers in the job sector should be enhanced to prepare a conducive environment for the economy. Type of Paper: Empirical. JEL Classification: E24, J16. Keywords: Labour Force, Gender, Economic Growth, BIMP Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Taasim, S; Daud, A. 2020. The Effect of Gender Unemployment on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis, J. Bus. Econ. Review, 5(3) 94–103 https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2020.5.3(3)
目标-在东盟东部东盟增长区(EAGA)之前，文莱，印度尼西亚，马来西亚和菲律宾(BIMP)接受移民流入以支持增长。他们越是依赖外国劳动力，就业领域的性别不平等问题就成为阻碍繁荣的一个问题。方法/技术-本研究旨在通过两种方法，即完全修正的普通最小二乘(FMOLS)和动态普通最小二乘(DOLS)，从性别角度确定BIMP-EAGA的失业率与经济增长之间的关系。采用1990年至2018年的年度时间序列数据。发现&新奇-结果与奥肯定律相反，奥肯定律认为男性失业率与GDP之间存在负相关关系。本研究发现，女性失业率对GDP没有影响，且不显著。应加强有利于和增加女工参与就业部门的政策，为经济创造有利的环境。论文类型:实证。JEL分类:E24, J16。关键词:劳动力，性别，经济增长，bimm对本文的偏好如下:Taasim, S;Daud, A. 2020。“性别失业对经济增长的影响:一个面板数据分析”。经济学。评论，5(3)94-103 https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2020.5.3(3)
{"title":"The Effect of Gender Unemployment on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis","authors":"GATR Journals Submitter, S. Taasim, A. Daud","doi":"10.35609/jber.2020.5.3(3)","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2020.5.3(3)","url":null,"abstract":"Objective – Prior to the East ASEAN Growth Area (EAGA) in ASEAN, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines (BIMP) took in an inflow of immigrants to support growth. The more they depended on foreign labour, the issue of gender inequality in the job sector became an issue that is hindering prosperity.\u0000Methodology/Technique – The research was aimed to identify the relation between unemployment rate from the gender perspective and economic growth of BIMP-EAGA by using two methods, namely Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS). Annual time series data for the period of 1990 to 2018 was employed.\u0000Findings & Novelty – The result was contrary to Okun's law which says that there is a negative relation between the male unemployment rate and GDP. This study found that the female unemployment rate did not affect GDP and was insignificant. Policies that benefit and increase the participation of female workers in the job sector should be enhanced to prepare a conducive environment for the economy.\u0000Type of Paper: Empirical.\u0000JEL Classification: E24, J16.\u0000Keywords: Labour Force, Gender, Economic Growth, BIMP\u0000\u0000Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Taasim, S; Daud, A. 2020. The Effect of Gender Unemployment on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis, J. Bus. Econ. Review, 5(3) 94–103 https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2020.5.3(3)","PeriodicalId":120099,"journal":{"name":"Economic Anthropology eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133382687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The debate on the effects of import competition on sectoral composition of employment remains unsettled. Using the case of the Indian manufacturing sector and exploiting plausibly exogenous variation from Chinese imports, we provide the first causal evidence that higher import competition increases the share of the formal sector employment. We nd an increase in the level of formal sector employment, driven by firms in the top 50% of the productivity distribution, and in contrast, a fall in the informal sector employment. This labor reallocation from informal to formal enterprises is enabled by the usage of contract workers, who do not carry stringent ring costs and are usually not covered by trade unions. Our estimates imply that Chinese import competition led to an increase in the share of formal sector employment by 3.9 percentage points between 2000-2001 and 2005-2006, which suggests an increase in aggregate labor productivity by 3.28%. Our results are robust to an instrumental variables estimation, and controlling for a host of other potential trade channels and worker characteristics.
{"title":"Import Competition, Formalization, and the Role of Contract Labor","authors":"Pavel Chakraborty, Rahul Singh, V. Soundararajan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3760913","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3760913","url":null,"abstract":"The debate on the effects of import competition on sectoral composition of employment remains unsettled. Using the case of the Indian manufacturing sector and exploiting plausibly exogenous variation from Chinese imports, we provide the first causal evidence that higher import competition increases the share of the formal sector employment. We nd an increase in the level of formal sector employment, driven by firms in the top 50% of the productivity distribution, and in contrast, a fall in the informal sector employment. This labor reallocation from informal to formal enterprises is enabled by the usage of contract workers, who do not carry stringent ring costs and are usually not covered by trade unions. Our estimates imply that Chinese import competition led to an increase in the share of formal sector employment by 3.9 percentage points between 2000-2001 and 2005-2006, which suggests an increase in aggregate labor productivity by 3.28%. Our results are robust to an instrumental variables estimation, and controlling for a host of other potential trade channels and worker characteristics.","PeriodicalId":120099,"journal":{"name":"Economic Anthropology eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116640072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An extant literature rooted in Iannaconne’s club-theoretic approach, advances a social insurance channel via which financial crises lead to increases in religious intensity defined to include religious affiliation and participation. Since variation in religious intensity has implications for; savings behavior, the incidence of religiously motivated terrorism, and the fraction of total resources allocated to religious practice, this social insurance channel implies that the socioeconomic effects of financial crises extends beyond the effects suggested by traditional channels. However, the absence of a demand for supernaturalism in the club-theoretic approach, -- despite the widely held view that religiosity reflects a fundamental demand for supernaturalism -- raises doubt about the adequacy if not validity of the social insurance channel. In light of the foregoing, we deploy an alternative theoretical framework which explicitly incorporates a demand for supernaturalism and implies a relative trust channel in which financial crises affect religious intensity by altering laypeople’s trust in religious organizations relative to their trust in secular institutions. Using responses to survey questions from the General Social Survey for the years 2006, 2008, and 2010, and the yield spread between Baa corporate bonds and ten-year US government bonds as a proxy for financial crisis, we assess the empirical validity of the relative trust channel by deploying Zellner’s SUR approach to test the joint hypothesis that the 2007-2009 financial crisis induced changes in religious participation and affiliation in the US and that it did so by affecting relative trust. Overall, our results confirm the existence of the relative trust channel.
{"title":"Financial Crisis, Trust, and Religious Intensity","authors":"Melissa Magdefrau, Prosper Raynold","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3750270","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3750270","url":null,"abstract":"An extant literature rooted in Iannaconne’s club-theoretic approach, advances a social insurance channel via which financial crises lead to increases in religious intensity defined to include religious affiliation and participation. Since variation in religious intensity has implications for; savings behavior, the incidence of religiously motivated terrorism, and the fraction of total resources allocated to religious practice, this social insurance channel implies that the socioeconomic effects of financial crises extends beyond the effects suggested by traditional channels. However, the absence of a demand for supernaturalism in the club-theoretic approach, -- despite the widely held view that religiosity reflects a fundamental demand for supernaturalism -- raises doubt about the adequacy if not validity of the social insurance channel. In light of the foregoing, we deploy an alternative theoretical framework which explicitly incorporates a demand for supernaturalism and implies a relative trust channel in which financial crises affect religious intensity by altering laypeople’s trust in religious organizations relative to their trust in secular institutions. Using responses to survey questions from the General Social Survey for the years 2006, 2008, and 2010, and the yield spread between Baa corporate bonds and ten-year US government bonds as a proxy for financial crisis, we assess the empirical validity of the relative trust channel by deploying Zellner’s SUR approach to test the joint hypothesis that the 2007-2009 financial crisis induced changes in religious participation and affiliation in the US and that it did so by affecting relative trust. Overall, our results confirm the existence of the relative trust channel.","PeriodicalId":120099,"journal":{"name":"Economic Anthropology eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131371421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-14DOI: 10.34218/ijm.11.12.2020.060
Syed Munir Barakbah Syed Faozi Barakbah, A. Razak, May May Grace Derioh, Zainal Abidin Ramli
It has been recognized that hotel organizations gain competitive advantage through their employees that are able and willing to provide quality service, through their expertise and ingenuity. The intangible work environment evolved and is personified by the organization culture. The Soft HRM focuses on treating employees as valued assets and a source of competitive advantage through their commitment, adaptability and high-quality skill and performance. The objective of the research was to examine the relationship between the organizational cultural orientation and the Soft HRM orientation of selected hotel organizations in Malaysia. Specifically, it aimed to examine if there were similarities and differences in the culture-Soft HRM orientations and to determine if there was any association between these variables orientations with the turnover rates. It was proposed that when there was a high level of association between the two strategic orientations, the organization would be more effective, as indicated by the turnover rate of employees. The findings indicated there was an alignment between organizational culture orientation with the organizational Soft HRM orientation. However, partial support was found between culture-Soft HRM orientations with turnover rate. This study had contributed to a better understanding on the practices that relate to organizational culture orientation and Soft HRM orientation in the hotel organizations.
{"title":"Organizational Systems Orientation and Organizational Culture Orientation in the Malaysian Hotel Organizations","authors":"Syed Munir Barakbah Syed Faozi Barakbah, A. Razak, May May Grace Derioh, Zainal Abidin Ramli","doi":"10.34218/ijm.11.12.2020.060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34218/ijm.11.12.2020.060","url":null,"abstract":"It has been recognized that hotel organizations gain competitive advantage through their employees that are able and willing to provide quality service, through their expertise and ingenuity. The intangible work environment evolved and is personified by the organization culture. The Soft HRM focuses on treating employees as valued assets and a source of competitive advantage through their commitment, adaptability and high-quality skill and performance. The objective of the research was to examine the relationship between the organizational cultural orientation and the Soft HRM orientation of selected hotel organizations in Malaysia. Specifically, it aimed to examine if there were similarities and differences in the culture-Soft HRM orientations and to determine if there was any association between these variables orientations with the turnover rates. It was proposed that when there was a high level of association between the two strategic orientations, the organization would be more effective, as indicated by the turnover rate of employees. The findings indicated there was an alignment between organizational culture orientation with the organizational Soft HRM orientation. However, partial support was found between culture-Soft HRM orientations with turnover rate. This study had contributed to a better understanding on the practices that relate to organizational culture orientation and Soft HRM orientation in the hotel organizations.","PeriodicalId":120099,"journal":{"name":"Economic Anthropology eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133445427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in two important outcomes; first, centuries of developments and progress in technology, medicine, and science failed to combat the virus which has so far killed over 1.6 million people worldwide; second, and most importantly, the new vital role of ecommerce increased chances of survival under self-quarantine or imposed lockdowns. A cashless society can bring advantages and disadvantages; for example, ecommerce can reduce or eliminate costs associated with conducting business (i.e. job creation, accounts payable/receivable, scope of products and services) and shopping online. Cashless payments as part of ecommerce not only can increase flexibility and convenience, but it can reduce financial exclusion through web-enabled and mobile applications; this way, a majority of the world’s 2.5 billion unbanked people could gain an access to the opportunity of conducting peer-to-peer transactions, sending and receiving money, and purchasing items in online stores that are open for business 24/7. The current acute health crisis has highlighted the crucial aspect of ecommerce and cashless payments, the comfort and convenience of which has allowed consumers to use the saved time to participate in other value-added activities. I do not want to even imagine what would have happened if there were no digital technologies during the global lockdown, I guess quarantined people would have no choice but to die either from the virus itself or by starvation as they would be unable to order food, medicine and other essential items.
{"title":"A Move Towards a Cashless Society Accelerates With the Novel Coronavirus Induced Global Lockdown","authors":"John Taskinsoy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3747750","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3747750","url":null,"abstract":"The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in two important outcomes; first, centuries of developments and progress in technology, medicine, and science failed to combat the virus which has so far killed over 1.6 million people worldwide; second, and most importantly, the new vital role of ecommerce increased chances of survival under self-quarantine or imposed lockdowns. A cashless society can bring advantages and disadvantages; for example, ecommerce can reduce or eliminate costs associated with conducting business (i.e. job creation, accounts payable/receivable, scope of products and services) and shopping online. Cashless payments as part of ecommerce not only can increase flexibility and convenience, but it can reduce financial exclusion through web-enabled and mobile applications; this way, a majority of the world’s 2.5 billion unbanked people could gain an access to the opportunity of conducting peer-to-peer transactions, sending and receiving money, and purchasing items in online stores that are open for business 24/7. The current acute health crisis has highlighted the crucial aspect of ecommerce and cashless payments, the comfort and convenience of which has allowed consumers to use the saved time to participate in other value-added activities. I do not want to even imagine what would have happened if there were no digital technologies during the global lockdown, I guess quarantined people would have no choice but to die either from the virus itself or by starvation as they would be unable to order food, medicine and other essential items.","PeriodicalId":120099,"journal":{"name":"Economic Anthropology eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115272146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Korean Abstract: 자본유입에 대한 이론적ㆍ실증적 연구는 자본유입이 환율의 평가절상을 야기하여 국내 경제를 위축시킨다는 먼델-플레밍 모형을 중심으로 이루어져 왔다. 그러나 최근 들어 자본유입이 소규모 개방경제에서 총수요를 자극하여 확장적인 효과를 나타낸다는 연구가 진행되고 있으나 구체적으로 어떤 경로를 통해 성장, 물가 등에 확장적인 효과를 나타내는지에 대한 연구는 부족한 상황이다.
이에 본 연구에서는 홍콩, 인도, 한국, 필리핀, 싱가포르, 스리랑카, 대만, 태국 등 8개 아시아 소규모 개방경제 국가의 2000~2018년중 분기별 국가패널 자료를 이용하여 주식, 채권, 은행차입 등 자본유입 경로별 충격이 어떤 경로를 통하여 물가상승률에 영향을 미치는지를 패널 VAR 모형으로 분석하였다.
분석 결과, 자본유입 충격의 총수요 확장 효과가 환율효과보다 커 물가에 대체로 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 자본유입 경로별로 보면 주식 및 은행차입을 통한 자본유입이 물가에 양(+)의 영향을, 채권투자는 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 채권투자를 통한 자본유입이 물가하락 압력으로 작용하는 것은 금융시장 미성숙, 중앙은행 금리정책 등으로 금리하락이 제약됨에 따라 총수요 확장효과가 환율효과보다 작게 나타난 데 기인한 것으로 보인다. 한편, 분석대상 국가들의 제도적인 차이를 고려하여 물가안정목표제(IT) 운영 여부와 금융시장 발전 정도에 따라 자본유입 경로별 충격이 물가상승률에 미치는 영향을 분석해 본 결과, IT 국가에 비해 Non-IT 국가에서 자본유입이 물가상승률에 미치는 양(+)의 효과가 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이는 IT 국가의 경우 자본유입 충격에 따른 물가상승 압력에 중앙은행이 적극적으로 대응한 데 기인한 것으로 해석할 수 있다. 다음으로 주식투자 충격의 경우 금융시장 성숙 국가와 미성숙 국가 간에 뚜렷한 차이가 나타나지 않았으나, 은행차입 충격의 경우 미성숙 국가가 성숙 국가에 비해 더 큰 양(+)의 효과를 나타내었다. 이는 금융시장이 미성숙한 국가는 자본유입이 주로 은행차입을 통해 이루어지는 데 기인한 것으로 보인다. 자본유입 경로별로 물가에 차별적인 효과를 나타낸다는 본고의 분석결과는 정책당국이 자본유입 총량뿐 아니라 유입경로에 대해서도 유의해야 함을 시사한다.
English Abstract: This paper investigated the effects of capital inflow by type on domestic inflation for eight small open economies in Asia using panel VAR and data from 2000 to 2018. The estimation results overall indicated that expansionary effects from aggregate demand caused by capital inflow were larger than the exchange rate effect and subsequently, the capital inflow had overall positive (+) effects on inflation. More specifically, first, the capital inflow by foreign equity investments and other investments had positive (+) effects on inflation while foreign bond investments had a limited effect on inflation. This insignificance in capital inflow by bond investment can be attributable to the fact that central banks’ monetary policy holding short-term interest rates and less developed financial markets. Second, the increasing effects of capital inflow by equity and other investments on inflation were more pronounced in non-IT (inflation targeting) countries. Lastly, the effects of capital inflow by other investments in the countries with less developed financial markets had greater positive effects on inflation than in countries with developed financial markets. Meanwhile, there was no clear difference between two country groups for capital inflow by foreign equity investments.
Korean Abstract:对资本流入的理论和实证研究以资本流入导致汇率升值，使国内经济萎缩的蒙德尔-弗莱明模型为中心进行。但是，最近虽然正在进行资本流入在小规模开放经济中刺激总需求，显示出扩张性效果的研究，但具体通过什么途径在增长、物价等方面显示出扩张性效果的研究还不足。对此,本研究中对香港、印度、韩国、菲律宾、新加坡、斯里兰卡、台湾、泰国等8个亚洲国家的2000年至2018年小规模开放经济中各季度国家利用面板数据,股票,债券,은행차입等자본유입各渠道的冲击,通过什么途径是否影响物价上涨率的面板用var模型分析了。分析结果显示，资本流入冲击的总需求扩张效果大于汇率效果，对物价大体上产生“量”(+)的影响。从资本流入途径来看，通过股票及银行贷款的资本流入对物价产生“量”(+)的影响，债券投资对“阴”(-)的影响。据分析，通过债券投资的资本流入成为物价下跌压力的原因是，由于金融市场不成熟、中央银行利率政策等制约利率下跌，总需求扩张效果低于汇率效果。另外,分析对象国家的制度的差别,考虑物价稳定目标第(it)按照是否运营和金融市场发展程度자본유입各渠道的冲击对物价的影响进行分析的结果,在it国家相比non - it国家자본유입对物价上涨率的羊(+)的效果更大的显示。这可以解释为，从IT国家的情况看，中央银行积极应对了资本流入冲击带来的物价上涨压力。其次，在股票投资冲击方面，金融市场成熟国家和未成熟国家之间没有明显差异，但在银行贷款冲击方面，未成熟国家比成熟国家表现出更大的效果(+)。据分析，金融市场不成熟的国家的资本流入主要是通过银行贷款形成的。根据资本流入途径，对物价产生差别效果的分析结果暗示，政策当局不仅要注意资本流入总量，还要注意流入途径。英语:This paper investigated the effects of capital inflow by type on domestic inflation for eight small open economies in Asia using panel VAR and data from 2000 to 2018。The estimation results overall indicated that expansionary effects from aggregate demand caused by capital inflow were larger than The exchange rate effect and subsequently;资本inflow had overall positive (+) effects on inflation。more specifically, first,the capital inflow by foreign equity investments and other investments had positive (+) effects on inflation while foreign bond investments had a limited effect on inflationThis insignificance in capital inflow by bond investment can be attributable to the fact that central banks ' monetary policy holding short-term interest rates and less developed financial markets。the increasing effects of capital inflow by equity and other investments on inflation were more pronounced in non-IT (inflation targeting) countries。lastly,the effects of capital inflow by other investments in the countries with less developed financial markets had greater positive effects on inflation than in countries with developed financial markets。Meanwhile, there was no clear difference between two country groups for capital inflow by foreign equity investments
{"title":"자본유입과 물가상승률 간의 동태적 상관관계 분석: 아시아의 8개국 소규모 개방경제를 중심으로 (Dynamic Relationship between Foreign Capital Inflow and Inflation: Evidence from Eight Small Open Economies in Asia)","authors":"Y. Choi, Jong Chil Son","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3746104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3746104","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Korean Abstract:</b> 자본유입에 대한 이론적ㆍ실증적 연구는 자본유입이 환율의 평가절상을 야기하여 국내 경제를 위축시킨다는 먼델-플레밍 모형을 중심으로 이루어져 왔다. 그러나 최근 들어 자본유입이 소규모 개방경제에서 총수요를 자극하여 확장적인 효과를 나타낸다는 연구가 진행되고 있으나 구체적으로 어떤 경로를 통해 성장, 물가 등에 확장적인 효과를 나타내는지에 대한 연구는 부족한 상황이다.<br><br>이에 본 연구에서는 홍콩, 인도, 한국, 필리핀, 싱가포르, 스리랑카, 대만, 태국 등 8개 아시아 소규모 개방경제 국가의 2000~2018년중 분기별 국가패널 자료를 이용하여 주식, 채권, 은행차입 등 자본유입 경로별 충격이 어떤 경로를 통하여 물가상승률에 영향을 미치는지를 패널 VAR 모형으로 분석하였다.<br><br>분석 결과, 자본유입 충격의 총수요 확장 효과가 환율효과보다 커 물가에 대체로 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 자본유입 경로별로 보면 주식 및 은행차입을 통한 자본유입이 물가에 양(+)의 영향을, 채권투자는 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 채권투자를 통한 자본유입이 물가하락 압력으로 작용하는 것은 금융시장 미성숙, 중앙은행 금리정책 등으로 금리하락이 제약됨에 따라 총수요 확장효과가 환율효과보다 작게 나타난 데 기인한 것으로 보인다. 한편, 분석대상 국가들의 제도적인 차이를 고려하여 물가안정목표제(IT) 운영 여부와 금융시장 발전 정도에 따라 자본유입 경로별 충격이 물가상승률에 미치는 영향을 분석해 본 결과, IT 국가에 비해 Non-IT 국가에서 자본유입이 물가상승률에 미치는 양(+)의 효과가 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이는 IT 국가의 경우 자본유입 충격에 따른 물가상승 압력에 중앙은행이 적극적으로 대응한 데 기인한 것으로 해석할 수 있다. 다음으로 주식투자 충격의 경우 금융시장 성숙 국가와 미성숙 국가 간에 뚜렷한 차이가 나타나지 않았으나, 은행차입 충격의 경우 미성숙 국가가 성숙 국가에 비해 더 큰 양(+)의 효과를 나타내었다. 이는 금융시장이 미성숙한 국가는 자본유입이 주로 은행차입을 통해 이루어지는 데 기인한 것으로 보인다. 자본유입 경로별로 물가에 차별적인 효과를 나타낸다는 본고의 분석결과는 정책당국이 자본유입 총량뿐 아니라 유입경로에 대해서도 유의해야 함을 시사한다.<br><br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> This paper investigated the effects of capital inflow by type on domestic inflation for eight small open economies in Asia using panel VAR and data from 2000 to 2018. The estimation results overall indicated that expansionary effects from aggregate demand caused by capital inflow were larger than the exchange rate effect and subsequently, the capital inflow had overall positive (+) effects on inflation. More specifically, first, the capital inflow by foreign equity investments and other investments had positive (+) effects on inflation while foreign bond investments had a limited effect on inflation. This insignificance in capital inflow by bond investment can be attributable to the fact that central banks’ monetary policy holding short-term interest rates and less developed financial markets. Second, the increasing effects of capital inflow by equity and other investments on inflation were more pronounced in non-IT (inflation targeting) countries. Lastly, the effects of capital inflow by other investments in the countries with less developed financial markets had greater positive effects on inflation than in countries with developed financial markets. Meanwhile, there was no clear difference between two country groups for capital inflow by foreign equity investments.","PeriodicalId":120099,"journal":{"name":"Economic Anthropology eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125097994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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