Background
Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) manages portal hypertension complications in cirrhosis, but predicting post-TIPS outcomes remains challenging, especially in viral hepatitis-dominated populations.
Purpose
To systematically evaluate the predictive performance of the novel Viral-Associated Index of Post-TIPS Score (VIPs) for post-TIPS prognosis. We also comprehensively compare it with six established clinical prognostic models and one imaging-based model (the spleen volume-based model, SvBM).
Materials and methods
We retrospectively analyzed 247 cirrhotic patients undergoing TIPS (56.7 % viral hepatitis). Baseline data calculated prognostic scores (VIPs, MELD, MELD-Na, FIPS, Child-Pugh, ALBI, MOTS, and SvBM). The primary endpoint was transplant-free survival (TFS). Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) at 6, 12, 36, and 60 months post-TIPS. Calibration (Brier score), explanatory power (R2), and decision curve analysis (DCA) were also evaluated.
Results
VIPs demonstrated good-to-moderate discrimination for TFS, with AUROCs (95 % CI) of 0.794 (0.689–0.899), 0.753 (0.649–0.858), 0.721 (0.645–0.797), and 0.692 (0.617–0.767) at 6, 12, 36, and 60 months, respectively. This advantage was most pronounced in the viral hepatitis subgroup, with AUROCs ranging from 0.699 (0.603–0.796) to 0.822 (0.715–0.930) across follow-up. VIPs significantly outperformed Child-Pugh, ALBI, FIPS, MOTS and SvBM at all timepoints (all p < 0.05), and surpassed MELD and MELD-Na for long-term predictions (36/60 months, both p < 0.05). It also exhibited the best calibration (lowest Brier scores: 0.076–0.217) and the highest explanatory power (R2 = 0.121–0.142). Subgroup analyses further confirmed robust performance in females and patients with variceal bleeding.
Conclusions
VIPs demonstrates superior predictive accuracy for post-TIPS survival in a viral hepatitis-dominated cohort and may serve as a preferred prognostic tool to guide individualized decision-making.
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