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Futurology in the field of global studies and international relations 全球研究和国际关系领域的未来学
IF 7.5 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.46493/2663-2675-2021-1-2-3
S. Sherhin
The article presents an analytical review of the global trends in terms of futurology. The main attention is paid to the global problems of world’s development which were researched by Rome club, US National Intelligence Council, and Research Office of European Parliament. Address to the problems of future was caused by the global transformations that brought up the new threats to the world. In the base of the transformations are strategic instability, and possibility of conversion of the military conflicts into full-scale wars. On the one hand, a number of global problems, particular critical growth of anthropogenic impact on ecology of the planet, total fight for its resources, demography crisis, proliferation of nuclear weapons, international conflicts, and hybrid wars, cast doubts on the idea of «unlimited development» of the world community. On the other hand, the contradictive dynamic of world’s development, and the deterioration of relations between «major powers» became continual phenomena. The contemporary futurological researches of the global trends don’t bring positive results which far away from optimism. Primarily it concerns of the futurological forecasts that have been made by the research structures and special institutions. Their forecasts to 2035 noted accelerated the tendency of technogenic influence on ecology system, natural resources of the planet, ultimate climate changes, crises processes in world economy, and danger of the military conflicts escalation. There is a question on the agenda whether mankind is ready to resist eff ectively these challenges and threats.
本文从未来学的角度对全球趋势作了分析回顾。主要关注由罗马俱乐部、美国国家情报委员会和欧洲议会研究室研究的世界发展的全球性问题。对未来问题的处理是由给世界带来新威胁的全球变化引起的。这种转变的基础是战略上的不稳定,以及军事冲突转变为全面战争的可能性。一方面,许多全球性问题,特别是人为对地球生态影响的严重增长,对其资源的全面争夺,人口危机,核武器扩散,国际冲突和混合战争,使人们对国际社会“无限发展”的想法产生了怀疑。另一方面,世界发展的矛盾动态和“大国”关系的恶化成为持续的现象。当代对全球趋势的未来学研究并没有带来积极的结果,远远谈不上乐观。它主要涉及研究机构和专门机构所作的未来预测。他们对2035年的预测指出,技术对生态系统、地球自然资源、气候变化、世界经济危机进程以及军事冲突升级的危险将加速。议程上有一个问题是,人类是否准备好有效地抵御这些挑战和威胁。
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引用次数: 0
Venezuela: to be or not to be 委内瑞拉:生存还是毁灭
IF 7.5 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.46493/2663-2675-2021-1-2-1
Volodymyr Krasilchuk
The article deals with the most crucial components of the current political and institutional crisis in Venezuela. A brief historical deflection into the events of 1989-2020 was made, which indicate, among other things, deep-seated left-wing political views and feelings amidst the majority of the population. This situation serves as a solid platform for strengthening the role of the ruling PSUV party and the present head of State, N. Maduro, in the country’s domestic politics. The political and institutional crisis in the above-mentioned oil-rich South American country has expanded sharply, after being elected Juan Guaidó, a representative of the opposition party VP («People’s Will») as a Chairman of the National Assembly on January 5, 2019. He challenged the prevailing President, declaring himself as the Acting head of State just on January 23, 2019. In this context, the key social and economic aftermaths of the crisis in present-day Venezuela are revealed, in particular, such as the GDP contraction, hyperinflation, growth of the population living in extreme economic poverty, an increase of Venezuelans forced to leave the country due to, above all, obvious signs of a humanitarian crisis. Deepening of the Venezuelan society in destructive processes, escalating of the political debates at the level of parties’ leaders, a lack of the transparent discussion in the public arena concerning the country’s future, to be a necessary condition for realizing the citizen’s rights to democratic choice, appear as consequences of the failure of Guaidó’s strategy. It was built in particular on the desired, but not achieved cessation the usurpation of power by Maduro. The postures of the main international players (USA, EU, OAS, «Lima Group», International Contact Group) are outlined with regard to the assessments of the domestic situation in Venezuela and suggestions for resolving the political crisis and restoring democracy in this country, in particular via introducing sanctions against Venezuelan officials and legal entities, as well as establishing a constructive dialogue between Maduro and the opposition. The main items of Ukraine’s official position on the «Venezuelan issue» had also been notified. In a nutshell, a conclusion is made that for a certain category of Ukrainian voters and for the majority of Venezuelans, despite the obvious differences, the issue of the public administration model remains rhetorical, authoritative, as an outcome of the improvement of democratization, or authoritarian one.
这篇文章讨论了委内瑞拉当前政治和体制危机的最关键因素。对1989年至2020年的事件进行了简短的历史偏转,其中包括大多数人口中根深蒂固的左翼政治观点和情感。这种情况为加强执政的统一社会党的作用和现任国家元首马杜罗在该国国内政治中的作用提供了坚实的平台。2019年1月5日,反对派VP(“人民意志”)代表Juan Guaidó当选为国民议会主席后,上述石油资源丰富的南美国家的政治和制度危机急剧扩大。他挑战现任总统,于2019年1月23日宣布自己为代理国家元首。在这种情况下,特别揭示了当前委内瑞拉危机的主要社会和经济后果,例如国内生产总值收缩,恶性通货膨胀,生活在极端经济贫困中的人口增加,由于人道主义危机的明显迹象而被迫离开该国的委内瑞拉人增加。委内瑞拉社会在破坏性过程中愈演愈烈,政党领袖层面的政治辩论愈演愈烈,公共领域缺乏关于国家未来的透明讨论,而这些都是实现公民民主选择权的必要条件,这似乎是Guaidó策略失败的后果。它特别建立在马杜罗篡夺权力的愿望之上,但没有实现。主要国际参与者(美国、欧盟、美洲国家组织、“利马集团”、国际联络小组)的立场概述了对委内瑞拉国内局势的评估,以及解决政治危机和恢复该国民主的建议,特别是通过对委内瑞拉官员和法人实体实施制裁,以及建立马杜罗与反对派之间的建设性对话。乌克兰在“委内瑞拉问题”上的主要官方立场也已通知。简而言之,得出的结论是,对某类乌克兰选民和对大多数委内瑞拉人来说,尽管存在明显的差异,公共行政模式的问题仍然是口头上的、权威的,是民主化改善的结果,或专制的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Structuring the Analysis of International Conflicts and Threats 构建国际冲突与威胁分析
IF 7.5 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.46493/2663-2675.31(5).2021.52-60
Oleksandr Tsvietkov
This paper considers the theoretical and practical approaches to the analysis of pressing and sensitive issues of international life, such as conflicts and threats in international relations. Their current multipolar model, as well as the previous bipolar one, is described by an expansive range of historically developed and new hybrid conflicts occurring in Europe and almost all parts of the world, which in themselves pose serious regional and global threats or result from such exacerbations. In a modernised political-scientific epistemological key, this article raises the question of the need to isolate and analyse the current diversity of international challenges, threats, and conflicts and their typification and structuring. For this reason, it is proposed to achieve greater specificity in the analysis of conflict situations and in understanding the possibilities of obtaining a certain geopolitical result from their settlement, namely in the confrontation between Ukraine and Russia. Thematically, using examples from world and Ukrainian diplomatic practice, the study presents analytical approaches to the issue of international threats based on the theory of international relations and relevant research in expert and academic circles on war, peace, and conflict studies. The methods of application of the Copenhagen School of Securitisation Theory, the Normandy Index, the Concept of Ontological Security, etc. are defined as the most appropriate and promising among others. Conflict structuring models based on value approaches in five areas, and different levels of crisis and threat analysis are also considered. The latter is proposed to expand from three to four levels of analysis or targeted “dilution of 4 shelves” of a particular situation, with variable or combined choice of level of consideration and solution. An in-depth understanding of current conflicts and threats should stimulate international dialogue and contribute to a better understanding of international security and the search for solutions to the current conflicts
本文考虑了分析国际生活中紧迫和敏感问题的理论和实践方法,如国际关系中的冲突和威胁。它们目前的多极模式,以及以前的两极模式,是由欧洲和世界几乎所有地区发生的一系列历史上发展起来的和新的混合冲突所描述的,这些冲突本身构成严重的区域和全球威胁,或者是这种恶化的结果。在现代化的政治科学认识论的关键,这篇文章提出了一个问题,需要孤立和分析当前国际挑战,威胁和冲突的多样性及其类型和结构。因此,建议在分析冲突局势和理解从解决冲突中获得某种地缘政治结果的可能性方面,即在乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的对抗中,实现更具体的目标。从主题上讲,本研究以世界和乌克兰外交实践为例,提出了基于国际关系理论和专家和学术界对战争、和平与冲突研究的相关研究的国际威胁问题的分析方法。其中,哥本哈根证券化理论学派、诺曼底指数、本体论安全概念等的应用方法被认为是最合适和最有前途的。本文还考虑了基于五个领域的价值方法的冲突结构模型,以及不同层次的危机和威胁分析。后者建议将特定情况的分析从三层扩展到四层,或有针对性地“稀释四层”,具有可变或组合选择的考虑水平和解决方案。对当前冲突和威胁的深入了解应能促进国际对话,有助于更好地了解国际安全和寻求解决当前冲突的办法
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引用次数: 0
The Most Important Thing in Life is Beauty 人生最重要的是美
IF 7.5 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.46493/2663-2675.31(5).2021.97-102
Olesya Kostyuk
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引用次数: 1
The role of the figure Taras Shevchenko in the cultural diplomacy of Ukraine 塔拉斯舍甫琴科在乌克兰文化外交中的作用
IF 7.5 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.46493/2663-2675-2021-3-4-6
Dmitry Tkach
According to the data of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, there are more than 1,100 monuments to Shevchenko in the world: 99 are located in 44 countries, another 1,068 - in Ukraine. It is noted that a significant number of monuments that were constructed abroad were erected during the independence of Ukraine at the initiative of Ukrainian embassies and organizations of the Ukrainian diaspora. Therefore, it is considered useful and interesting to tell the story of the creation of these monuments by those people who contributed to this noble activity their energy, strength and patriotism. First of all, we are talking about the teams of embassies abroad and their heads - Ambassadors Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary. It is further reported about a difficult situation that appeared with the erection of the monument to Taras Shevchenko in Budapest in 2004 and 2005. Former Ambassador of Ukraine to Hungary Yuriy Mushka initiated the erection of the monument to Taras Shevchenko without the consent of the Ukrainian community. The monument was made by a Hungarian sculptor and it did not look like Shevchenko at all. The Society of Ukrainian Culture of Hungary, headed by its chairman Yaroslava Khortiani, opposed the installation of this sculpture. Eventually, they achieved their goal, and the Hungarian authorities decided not to erect the monument. But on March 15 on the square in Budapest there was a pedestal for the monument to Taras Shevchenko without a bust. The Ukrainian community appealed to the new Ambassador of Ukraine to Hungary, Dmytro Tkach, to remove the bust from the square. The solution was very simple - to install this monument in the courtyard of the embassy. And since it is the Ukrainian territory, no permits from the Hungarian authorities were required. The Hungarians gladly accepted this proposal, and the TUKU leadership supported it. It is described in details what work was carried out by the Embassy of Ukraine for the production and installation of Taras Shevchenko Memorial in Budapest. The role of the leadership of self-government body of the second district of Budapest in providing of a place for the monument, the owners of the Industrial Union of Donbass and, first of all, Sergiy Taruta in providing financial support for the creation of this complex is mentioned. The selfless work of the Ukrainian sculptor, professor of the sculpture department of Lviv National Academy of Arts Ivan Mykytyuk was especially noted. For a little more than a month, this talented artist managed to create a three-meter sculpture of Kobzar, which was then made of bronze at a leading foundry in Budapest. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine announced that the world record of the largest number of erected monuments to the cultural figure now belongs to the Ukrainian poet, novelist and artist Taras Shevchenko. This titanic work on creation of a memorial dedicated to Taras Shevchenko in Budapest was completed in this way. On July 11, 2007, President
根据乌克兰外交部的数据,全世界有1100多座舍甫琴科纪念碑:99座位于44个国家,另外1068座在乌克兰。值得注意的是,在乌克兰独立期间,在乌克兰大使馆和乌克兰侨民组织的倡议下,在国外建造了许多纪念碑。因此,讲述那些为这项崇高的活动贡献了他们的精力、力量和爱国主义的人们创造这些纪念碑的故事被认为是有用和有趣的。首先,我们谈论的是驻外使馆团队及其负责人——特命全权大使。据进一步报道,2004年和2005年在布达佩斯建立塔拉斯·舍甫琴科纪念碑时出现了困难局面。前乌克兰驻匈牙利大使尤里·穆什卡未经乌克兰社区同意,就发起了塔拉斯·舍甫琴科纪念碑的建立。这座纪念碑是由一位匈牙利雕塑家制作的,它看起来一点也不像舍甫琴科。匈牙利乌克兰文化协会(Society of Ukrainian Culture of Hungary)主席雅罗斯拉瓦·科尔蒂亚尼(yarosava Khortiani)反对安装这座雕塑。最终,他们实现了他们的目标,匈牙利当局决定不建立纪念碑。但是3月15日在布达佩斯的广场上,塔拉斯舍甫琴科纪念碑的基座上却没有半身像。乌克兰社区呼吁乌克兰新任驻匈牙利大使德米特罗·特卡奇(Dmytro Tkach)将半身像从广场上移走。解决方案非常简单——把这个纪念碑安装在大使馆的院子里。由于它是乌克兰领土,因此不需要匈牙利当局的许可。匈牙利人欣然接受了这一建议,TUKU领导层也表示支持。文中详细描述了乌克兰大使馆在布达佩斯为塔拉斯·舍甫琴科纪念碑的制作和安装所做的工作。布达佩斯第二区的自治机构领导为纪念碑提供了一个地方,顿巴斯工业联盟的所有者,首先是Sergiy Taruta在为这个综合体的创建提供财政支持方面的作用。乌克兰雕塑家,利沃夫国家艺术学院雕塑系教授Ivan Mykytyuk的无私工作尤其受到注意。在一个多月的时间里,这位才华横溢的艺术家成功地创造了一个三米高的Kobzar雕塑,然后在布达佩斯的一家领先的铸造厂用青铜制作。乌克兰外交部宣布,为乌克兰诗人、小说家和艺术家塔拉斯·舍甫琴科(Taras Shevchenko)建立纪念碑数量最多的世界纪录现在属于他。在布达佩斯为塔拉斯舍甫琴科建造的纪念碑就是这样完成的。2007年7月11日,乌克兰总统尤先科对布达佩斯进行正式访问,并与匈牙利总统肖伊姆共同为乌克兰著名诗人、乌克兰独立斗士塔拉斯·舍甫琴科纪念碑揭幕。2013年3月23日,塔拉斯·舍甫琴科广场出现在布达佩斯,与大科布扎尔纪念碑的位置相同。
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引用次数: 0
Stablishment of cultural diplomacy of ukraine as a socio-cultural institute 建立乌克兰文化外交作为一个社会文化机构
IF 7.5 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.46493/2663-2675-2021-1-2-2
D. Viedienieiev
The article presents the main factors of the institutionalization and development acceleration (from 2016) of Ukrainian cultural diplomacy. The author provides an overview of the historical way of the institute of cultural diplomacy of Ukraine becoming in 1918-1991. It is constated, that in the conditions of the new international relations paradigm approval – geoinformation (in which the main factor of the world policy system became the information flows and mass consciousness correcting) the eff orts on behalf of cultural diplomacy could improve the international image of Ukraine as an effective state, improve the competitiveness of the national art and cultural products on the world cultural market. It is considered the performance of the cultural diplomacy functions by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine for the national cultural product and information about the Ukrainian folk cultural- civilizational achievements distribution abroad. The author describes the complex of the special departments (institutions) in the structure of the MFA’ main body, Ukrainian diplomatic representatives, others cultural-informational institutes (foundations, unions) of the state and civil character. The article defines the main role for international-cultural communication development played by the Ukrainian Institute (UI) – the state organisation which presents the Ukrainian culture in the world and forms the positive image of Ukraine abroad. The author highlights such the main UI tasks as improving Ukraine’s recognizability in the world thru the distribution of the knowledge about Ukraine; Ukrainian language and culture popularization abroad; development of the international dialogue thru the international exchanges maintaining; ensuring Ukrainian participation in the cooperation projects in the sphere of the creatives industries, culture, education, science, economy and others; distribution of the Ukrainian civil society development, state-building, commitment to the values of freedom, democracy, national unity.
文章介绍了乌克兰文化外交制度化和加速发展的主要因素(从2016年开始)。作者概述了乌克兰文化外交研究所1918-1991年的历史沿革。可以肯定的是,在新的国际关系范式认可的条件下-地理信息(其中世界政策体系的主要因素成为信息流和大众意识纠正),代表文化外交的努力可以改善乌克兰作为一个有效国家的国际形象,提高国家艺术和文化产品在世界文化市场上的竞争力。它被认为是乌克兰外交部对国家文化产品和乌克兰民间文化-文明成就信息在国外分布的文化外交职能的履行。作者描述了外交部主体结构中的特殊部门(机构),乌克兰外交代表,其他国家和民间性质的文化信息机构(基金会,工会)的复杂性。本文明确了乌克兰文化研究所在国际文化传播发展中所发挥的主要作用,乌克兰文化研究所是向世界展示乌克兰文化并在国外形成乌克兰积极形象的国家组织。作者强调了用户界面的主要任务,如通过乌克兰知识的传播提高乌克兰在世界上的认可度;乌克兰语言和文化在国外的普及;开展国际对话,通过维护国际交流;确保乌克兰参与创意产业、文化、教育、科学、经济等领域的合作项目;分配乌克兰公民社会的发展,国家建设,对自由,民主,民族团结的价值观的承诺。
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引用次数: 1
Comparative Analysis of the Establishment of Chinese and American Think Tanks 中美智库建设的比较分析
IF 7.5 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.46493/2663-2675.31(5).2021.44-51
Wei Lu
The relevance of the study is due to the need for a comparative analysis of the establishment of think tanks in the United States and the People’s Republic of China. In this regard, this article aims to identify the main factors influencing the quality of think tanks, disclosure of universal methods of modernization and quality control of think tanks around the world, description of the main aspects of establishing think tanks, predict and justify possible consequences of think tanks in the paradigm of different political regimes for local political systems, citizens of the country and the international community as a whole. The leading method in this study is systems analysis, which can be used to carry out a comparative analysis of the establishment of Chinese and American think tanks. Also in the process of writing this article were used such research methods as: the method of logical analysis, comparative method, methods of synthesis and deduction, the method of classification. The article presents the results of the analysis, reveals the main factors influencing the quality of think tanks, identifies universal methods of modernization and quality control of think tanks around the world, describes the main aspects of founding think tanks, predicted and justified the possible consequences of think tanks in the paradigm of different political regimes for local political systems, citizens of the country and the international community as a whole; the results are presented in the form of tables and figures. The materials of the article are of practical value for teachers and students of higher educational institutions in the field of sociology and analytics and politicians
该研究的相关性是由于需要对美国和中华人民共和国建立智库进行比较分析。在这方面,本文旨在识别影响智库质量的主要因素,揭示世界范围内智库现代化的普遍方法和质量控制,描述建立智库的主要方面,预测和证明在不同政治制度范式下,智库对地方政治制度、国家公民以及整个国际社会可能产生的后果。本研究的主要方法是系统分析法,可以对中美智库的建立进行比较分析。在本文的写作过程中,运用了逻辑分析法、比较法、综合推演法、分类法等研究方法。文章介绍了分析结果,揭示了影响智库质量的主要因素,确定了世界范围内智库现代化和质量控制的普遍方法,描述了智库创建的主要方面,预测并论证了不同政体范式下智库对地方政治制度、国家公民以及整个国际社会可能产生的后果;结果以表格和图表的形式呈现出来。本文的材料对社会学、分析学和政治学领域的高等院校师生具有实用价值
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引用次数: 0
До витоків української еміграції: передумови, основні форми та напрями формування перших зарубіжних груп і колоній етнічних українців 乌克兰移民的结果:形成乌克兰人第一收入群体和殖民地的假设、基本形式和方向
IF 7.5 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.46493/2663-2675.31(5).2021.15-27
Rendiuk Teofil
Наголошується на важливості дослідження унікального явища української еміграції, яка має давню історію та глобальні географічні масштаби. Актуальність роботи обґрунтована потребою вивчення джерел української еміграції, формування з часом потужної маси переселенців з України, розселених у всьому світі, які завжди підтримували ідею відродження Української держави і сьогодні відіграють істотну роль у просуванні її інтересів за кордоном. З історичного ракурсу українська еміграція посідає п’яте місце у світі після єврейської, грецької, вірменської та китайської. Першими українці емігрували до Європи та у межах сучасної Росії. У середині XVIII ст. з’явилися перші українські хліборобські колонії в тодішній Австрійській імперії, коли декілька тисяч закарпатських українців у пошуках роботи переїхали до Бачки, Срему й Славонії – регіонів сучасних Сербії та Хорватії. Але значно більше українських селян перебралися на Надволжя, Урал та у Сибір, де вони створювали великі українські поселення серед місцевих росіян. Метою статті є дослідження невідомих дотепер питань щодо мотивів індивідуальної та групової еміграції на ранніх етапах існування Української держави в усіх її формах, джерела формування перших українських хліборобських колоній у країнах Європи, поселень етнічних українців у межах царської Росії, Північної, Південної Америки та в Австралії. Базовою методологічною основою роботи є системний підхід і комплексний аналіз, що дали можливість надати цілісне бачення ролі та місця співвітчизників у формуванні потужної, національно-свідомої та впливової української діаспори. Результатами роботи стало виявлення причин індивідуальної та групової еміграції українців, встановлення географії їх розселення в різних країнах світу, їх роль у засвоєнні вільних до того територій, збереженні рідної мови та національної культури. Практична цінність роботи зводиться до того, що наведений фактичний матеріал, висловленні авторські міркування та зроблені висновки можуть бути використані для підготовки праць з історії України, окремих зарубіжних країн та української діаспори
它强调了探索乌克兰移民这一具有悠久历史和全球地理规模的独特现象的重要性。工作的基础是需要研究乌克兰移民的来源,在世界各地形成一个耗时的乌克兰流离失所者群体,-他们一直支持恢复乌克兰国家的想法,今天在促进其海外利益方面发挥着重要作用。从历史进程来看,乌克兰移民在世界上拥有五个席位,仅次于犹太人、希腊人、亚美尼亚人和中国人。第一批乌克兰人移民到欧洲和现代俄罗斯。在18世纪中期,第一批乌克兰面包殖民地出现在当时的奥地利帝国,当时数千名乌克兰人搬到巴卡寻找工作,塞尔维亚和斯洛文尼亚是现代塞尔维亚和克罗地亚的两个地区。但更多的乌克兰村民搬到了那不勒斯、乌拉尔和西伯利亚,在那里他们在当地俄罗斯人中建立了大型乌克兰定居点。本文的目的是探讨迄今为止关于乌克兰国家存在初期各种形式的个人和群体移民动机的未知问题,第一批乌克兰面包殖民地的形成来源于欧洲国家,俄罗斯王国、北美、南美和澳大利亚境内的乌克兰人。工作的基本方法论基础是一种系统的方法和复杂的分析,使我们能够全面了解联盟在塑造权力方面的作用和地位,全国性的、有意识的和有影响力的乌克兰侨民。这项工作的结果是确定了乌克兰人个人和群体移民的原因,确定了他们在世界不同国家的分布地理,他们在捕捉自由人方面的作用,保护民族语言和文化。该作品的实用价值在于,上述材料、作者声明和结论可用于准备乌克兰历史作品,个人收入国家和乌克兰侨民
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引用次数: 0
Regional Alliances between states: historical review and future projections for Ukraine 国家间的地区联盟:乌克兰的历史回顾与未来展望
IF 7.5 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.46493/2663-2675-2021-3-4-2
Volodymyr Chupyra
Following article refl ects political and political military al liances as means to solve defense challenges that threaten sov ereignty and territorial integrity, among other those of Ukraine. The article evaluates several historical examples of such regional alliances, their benefi ts and drawbacks and how these aff ected the dynamics of international politics. Typical alliances established in pre-modern times, were either temporary and of personal nature or tended to develop into actual unions, limiting the sovereignty of its members. In the modern era though, military-political alliances prevailed, initiated either to perceive imperialist intentions or to protect sovereignty and territorial integrity. Such alliances became especially relevant after the First World War, as new independent states emerged under the terms of the Versailles system and a new confi guration of international borders was established. The examples of Little, Balkan and Baltic Ententes demonstrate the prime shortcoming of these alliances being unable to maintain eff ectiveness in the face of changing sources of threat, when former enemies became allies under new international circumstances. Given that the possibility of Ukraine’s membership to NATO still seems to be a distant pros pect and the need to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty from growing Russian aggression when the position of EU leaders is not always consolidated, further ways of countering Russian aggression must be explored, for instance accumulating possible political or even limited military assistance. From this perspective, it could be ef fective to establish close military-political ties with East European countries, which are as well aware of the degree of threat coming from Russia for their own sovereignty. Certain opportunities could be realized based on the ideas known as Intermarium Coalition in East-Central Europe, the Baltic to Black Sea Alliance, or though achieving Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) status for Ukraine.
以下文章反映了政治和政治军事联盟作为解决威胁主权和领土完整的国防挑战的手段,其中包括乌克兰。本文评估了几个历史上这种地区联盟的例子,它们的利弊,以及它们是如何影响国际政治动态的。在前现代建立的典型联盟,要么是暂时的,个人性质的,要么倾向于发展成实际的联盟,限制其成员的主权。然而,在现代,军事政治联盟盛行,要么是为了察觉帝国主义的意图,要么是为了保护主权和领土完整。第一次世界大战后,随着新的独立国家在凡尔赛条约的条款下出现,新的国际边界格局得以确立,这种联盟变得尤为重要。小协约、巴尔干协约和波罗的海协约的例子表明,这些联盟的主要缺点是,当以前的敌人在新的国际环境下成为盟友时,面对不断变化的威胁来源,它们无法保持有效。考虑到乌克兰加入北约的可能性似乎仍然是一个遥远的前景,以及在欧盟领导人的地位并不总是稳固的情况下,保护乌克兰的主权不受俄罗斯日益增长的侵略的需要,必须探索对抗俄罗斯侵略的进一步方法,例如积累可能的政治甚至有限的军事援助。从这个角度来看,与东欧国家建立密切的军事政治关系可能是有效的,这些国家也意识到来自俄罗斯对其主权的威胁程度。某些机会可以基于所谓的东中欧跨国联盟、波罗的海至黑海联盟的想法,或者通过实现乌克兰的主要非北约盟国(MNNA)地位来实现。
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引用次数: 0
Індійська дипломатична місія до імператора Октавіана Августа в дзеркалі індоєвропейських контактів 印度外交使团访问屋大维皇帝奥古斯塔
IF 7.5 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.46493/2663-2675.31(5).2021.28-34
Pyrih Roman
У статті досліджуються можливі мотиви дипломатичних контактів між імперським Римом і древньою Індією в часи імператора Октавіна Августа (27 р. до н.е. – 14 р. н.е.). Наявність активних зв’язків між Середземноморям і Індостаном в античний період є недостатньо вивченою сторінкою історії, що свідчить про існування спільного індоєвропейського економічного та культурного простору. Актуальність дослідження пов’язана, зокрема, із зростанням інтересу до витоків індоєвропейської спільності на тлі останніх відкриттів у галузі геноміки та генографії. Автор аналізує економічне підґрунтя відносин між Середземномор’ям і державами Індостану, привертаючи увагу до активного розвитку торговельних зв’язків між ними, що став можливим завдяки освоєнню навігації Індійським океаном, включенню Єгипту до складу Римської імперії та високому попиту на індійські спеції серед римлян. Порівнюється потуга Риму та Індії, як домінантних економік античного світу, описується вплив торгівлі на культурні обміни між ними. Детально досліджуючи наявні історичні джерела та свідчення про індійську дипломатичну місію до імператора Октавіана Августа, автор описує її можливі причини, політичні та ідеологічні наслідки для Імперії. Наводиться версія щодо скіфського походження царя Пора та його можливого прагнення укласти військовий союз з Римом. Для кращого розуміння контексту події окремо йдеться про ритуальні традиції римської дипломатії. Серед цікавих деталей індійського посольства привертається увага до самоспалення одного з його членів – Зарманохега. Автор зупиняється на можливих мотивах його вчинку, історії ритуальних самогубств, зв’язку з культом Гермеса і Елевсинськими містеріями, звертається до історичних записів про аналогічні вчинки індійських аскетів і правителів. Виокремлюючи індійську місію як яскраву сторінку у відносинах між західним і східним краєм індоєвропейського простору, автор статті вписує цю подію в ширший контекст, що починається з перших контактів між еллінами і індійцями, зафіксованих істориками під час військового походу Александра Македонського, і закінчується колонізацією Індії європейськими державами та ренесансом інтересу європейців до індійської релігії та культури. Стаття зацікавить спеціалістів з історії дипломатії, культурології та компаративістики
本文探讨了奥克塔文·奥古斯都皇帝时期(公元前27年-公元前14年)罗马帝国与古印度进行外交接触的可能动机。后者在古代并没有受到足够的良好教育,在历史页面上显示出一个共同的印度经济和文化空间的存在。目前的研究特别涉及在基因组学和地理学领域的最新发现背景下,欧洲共同体对结果的兴趣日益增加。作者分析了地中海与印度关系的经济基础,注意到它们之间贸易关系的积极发展,这是由于对印度洋的入侵,埃及被纳入罗马帝国,以及罗马人对印度间谍的高需求。它比较了罗马和印度作为古代世界主导经济体的力量,描述了贸易对它们之间文化交流的影响。在对现有的历史来源和关于印度对皇帝屋大维-奥古斯都的外交使团的证词的深入研究中,作者描述了其可能的原因、对帝国的政治和意识形态后果。有一个版本的国王波尔的怀疑起源和他可能建立与罗马联盟的愿望。为了更好地理解这一事件的背景,它是关于罗马外交的仪式传统。印度大使馆的有趣细节包括其成员之一Zarmanoheg的自杀。作者停止了他的行为可能的动机,仪式自杀的历史,与赫尔墨斯文化和精灵土地的联系,参考了印度腹水和统治者类似行动的历史记录。通过将印度任务区分为欧洲空间西部和东部关系中的一页,文章作者将这一事件写在了一个更广泛的背景下,这始于历史学家在亚历山大-马其顿军事后裔时期记录的埃林人与印第安人之间的第一次接触,以欧洲国家对印度的殖民统治以及欧洲人对印度宗教和文化兴趣的复兴而告终。这篇文章对外交、文化和比较的历史感兴趣
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Foreign Affairs
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