Forest Policy and Economics最新文献_第8页

Forest sector models for tropical countries - A case study of Colombia 热带国家森林部门模型--哥伦比亚案例研究

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103341

Oscar Geovani Martínez-Cortés , Shashi Kant , Henrieta Isufllari

The evolution of Forest Sector Models (FSMs) since the 1960s has marked a significant advancement in forest economics and policy analysis. However, this development is limited to North America and Europe's nations; tropical countries, crucial for biodiversity, carbon storage, and deforestation, face a notable scarcity of FSMs, often attributed to the limited and fragmented nature of their forest sector data. The importance of unprocessed wood and sources of wood supply are also distinct in tropical countries. We address these issues by introducing a comprehensive framework to build FSMs tailored for tropical countries whose national accounts are aligned with United Nations standards. We demonstrate the applicability of our framework by constructing the Colombian Forest Sector Model (CFSM), a structural econometric partial equilibrium model. The CFSM includes five markets grouped in two market sub-models: one for unprocessed wood (firewood and industrial wood) linked to a forest plantations simulator, and other for manufactured wood products (wood, furniture, and pulp & paper). The model consists of 32 behavioral equations, explaining supply, consumption, exports and imports, and prices for consumption and trade for each market, plus 18 summation and market-clearing identities. Model estimation is based on 41 years (1975–2015) of data collected, organized, and transformed through a meticulous process. Rigorous validation confirms the CFSM's robustness and reliability. The model's application is demonstrated by estimating wood availability and impacts under several plantation expansion scenarios, and the monetary effects of expanding Colombia's wood products industry. The paper opens new frontiers of research in FSMs.

自 20 世纪 60 年代以来，森林部门模型（FSM）的发展标志着森林经济学和政策分析的重大进步。然而，这一发展仅限于北美和欧洲国家；而对生物多样性、碳储存和森林砍伐至关重要的热带国家却面临着森林部门模型明显匮乏的问题，这通常归因于其森林部门数据的有限性和分散性。热带国家未加工木材的重要性和木材供应来源也各不相同。为了解决这些问题，我们引入了一个综合框架，为国民核算符合联合国标准的热带国家量身打造森林可持续管理机制。我们通过构建哥伦比亚林业部门模型（CFSM）--一个结构计量经济学局部均衡模型--来证明我们的框架的适用性。CFSM 包括五个市场，分为两个市场子模型：一个是与森林种植模拟器相关联的未加工木材市场（木柴和工业木材），另一个是木制品市场（木材、家具和纸浆&amp；纸张）。该模型由 32 个行为方程组成，解释每个市场的供应、消费、进出口、消费价格和贸易价格，外加 18 个求和及市场清算特性。模型估算基于 41 年（1975-2015 年）的数据收集、整理和转换过程。严格的验证证实了 CFSM 的稳健性和可靠性。通过估算几种种植园扩张方案下的木材可用性和影响，以及哥伦比亚木制品行业扩张的货币效应，证明了该模型的应用价值。本文开辟了森林可持续管理研究的新领域。

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引用次数: 0

Food and the forest: A spatial analysis on the nexus between foreign direct investment and deforestation 粮食与森林：外国直接投资与森林砍伐之间关系的空间分析

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103353

Luca Bortolotti , Marta Marson , Donatella Saccone

This study examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on deforestation in non-OECD countries, in consideration of the potential trade-offs between economic objectives and environmental concerns and the pollution haven hypothesis. The study applies a multilevel fixed effects estimator to an original panel dataset of more than 4500 locations that received FDI across 120 countries between 2003 and 2019 and considers the sectors and sub-sectors of investment projects to examine heterogeneous land intensity in agricultural and food activities. Three main conclusions emerge. First, the food sector is primarily responsible for FDI-driven forest loss, while FDI projects in other sectors do not seem to significantly contribute to deforestation. Second, forest loss induced by food FDI is driven by specific sub-sectors; in particular, FDI projects in the food trade and services sub-sector seem to be significant, which is likely attributable to increased demand for local agricultural production. Third, animal industry FDI has the most significant impact on forest loss where the forest land cover is dominant.

本研究考察了外国直接投资（FDI）对非经合组织国家森林砍伐的影响，同时考虑了经济目标与环境问题之间的潜在权衡以及污染天堂假说。该研究对 2003 年至 2019 年间 120 个国家的 4500 多个接受外国直接投资的地点的原始面板数据集采用了多层次固定效应估计方法，并考虑了投资项目的部门和分部门，以研究农业和食品活动中的异质性土地强度。研究得出了三个主要结论。首先，食品行业是外国直接投资造成森林损失的主要原因，而其他行业的外国直接投资项目似乎并没有对森林砍伐造成重大影响。第二，食品行业外国直接投资造成的森林损失是由特定的分部门驱动的；特别是，食品贸易和服务分部门的外国直接投资项目似乎很重要，这可能是由于对当地农业生产的需求增加。第三，在森林植被占主导地位的地方，畜牧业外国直接投资对森林损失的影响最大。

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引用次数: 0

The cost of operational complexity: A causal assessment of pre-fire mitigation and wildfire suppression 业务复杂性的代价：火前减灾和野火扑灭的因果评估

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103351

Jesse D. Young , Erin Belval , Benjamin Gannon , Yu Wei , Christopher O'Connor , Christopher Dunn , Bradley M. Pietruszka , David Calkin , Matthew Thompson

Pre-fire mitigation efforts that include the installation and maintenance of fuel breaks are integral to wildfire suppression in Southern California. Fuel breaks alter fire behavior and assist in fire suppression at strategic locations on the landscape. However, the combined effectiveness of fuel breaks and wildfire suppression is not well studied. Using daily firefighting personnel to proxy the quantity and diversity of potential fire suppression operations (i.e., operational complexity), we examined 15 wildfires from 2017 to 2020 in the Los Padres, Angeles, San Bernardino, and Cleveland National Forests to assess how weather and site-specific fuel break characteristics influenced wildfire containment when leveraged during suppression operations. After removing effects of fuel treatments, wildfire and aerial firefighting, we estimated that expanding fuel break width in grass-dominant systems from 10 to 100 m increased the average success rate against a heading fire from 31 % to 41 %. Likewise, recently cleared fuel breaks had higher success rates compared to poorly maintained fuel breaks in both grass (25 % to 45 %) and shrub systems (20 % to 45 %). Combined, grass and shrub systems exhibited an estimated success rate of 80 % under mild weather conditions (20th percentile) and 19 % under severe weather (80th percentile). Other significant determinants included forb and grass production, adjacent tree canopy cover and terrain. Consistent with complexity theory and previous suppression effectiveness research, our analysis showed signs of suppression effectiveness declining as firefighter personnel increased. Future work could better account for the role of suppression with improved data on firefighting resource types, actions, locations, and timing.

包括安装和维护防火隔离带在内的火前减灾工作是南加州野火扑救不可或缺的一部分。防火隔离带可以改变火灾行为，并在地形的战略位置协助灭火。然而，对防火隔离带和野火扑灭的综合效果还没有很好的研究。通过使用每日消防人员来代表潜在灭火行动的数量和多样性（即行动复杂性），我们研究了 2017 年至 2020 年洛斯帕德雷斯、洛杉矶、圣伯纳迪诺和克利夫兰国家森林的 15 起野火，以评估在灭火行动中利用天气和特定地点的燃料断裂带特征对野火控制的影响。在剔除了燃料处理、野火和空中灭火的影响后，我们估计，在以草为主的系统中，将燃料断裂带的宽度从 10 米扩大到 100 米，可将扑灭标题火的平均成功率从 31% 提高到 41%。同样，在草地系统（25% 到 45%）和灌木系统（20% 到 45%）中，与维护不善的防火带相比，最近清理的防火带成功率更高。综合来看，草地和灌木系统在温和天气条件下的成功率估计为 80%（第 20 个百分位数），而在恶劣天气条件下的成功率估计为 19%（第 80 个百分位数）。其他重要的决定因素包括禁草和牧草产量、邻近树冠覆盖率和地形。与复杂性理论和以前的灭火效果研究一致，我们的分析表明，随着消防员人数的增加，灭火效果有下降的迹象。未来的工作可以通过改进有关消防资源类型、行动、地点和时间的数据，更好地说明灭火的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Substitutability of U.S. and Canadian softwood lumber: A threshold modeling approach 美国和加拿大软木木材的可替代性：阈值建模方法

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103343

Yifei Zhang , Barry K. Goodwin

The U.S.-Canada softwood lumber dispute stands as the most protracted trade conflict between the two countries, with its history dating back to the early 1980s. U.S. lumber producers claim that Canadian lumber imports are unfairly subsidized, thereby, harming the domestic lumber industry. The U.S. has imposed countervailing and antidumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber imports to protect the domestic market. An important aspect of this trade dispute is the substitutability of lumber products between the two countries. Canadian lumber imports are detrimental to the U.S. industry only when the products are substitutes. In such a scenario, the imposition of trade restrictions would have a significant influence on the domestic market. Motivated by this consideration, we investigate dynamic relationships between prices for Spruce-Pine-Fir, a softwood species primarily imported from Canada, and Southern Yellow Pine, one of the most popular softwood species domestically produced in the U.S. We apply threshold models in an evaluation of the degree of substitutability. Our empirical findings indicate that within the

+ / -

3.4 % price differential band, the two lumber products demonstrate a higher degree of substitutability.

美加软木木材争端是两国间最旷日持久的贸易冲突，其历史可追溯到 20 世纪 80 年代初。美国木材生产商声称，加拿大对进口木材进行了不公平的补贴，从而损害了美国国内的木材产业。美国对加拿大进口的软木木材征收反补贴和反倾销税，以保护国内市场。这场贸易争端的一个重要方面是两国木材产品的可替代性。只有当产品具有替代性时，加拿大的木材进口才会对美国产业造成损害。在这种情况下，实施贸易限制将对国内市场产生重大影响。基于这种考虑，我们研究了云杉-松杉（一种主要从加拿大进口的软木品种）和南方黄松（美国国内生产的最受欢迎的软木品种之一）价格之间的动态关系。我们的实证研究结果表明，在 +/-3.4% 的价格差异范围内，这两种木材产品表现出较高的可替代性。

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引用次数: 0

Perspectives on Forest governance among the indigenous communities of India's Eastern Ghats 印度东高止山土著社区对森林治理的看法

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103350

Anugu Amarender Reddy , Tek Maraseni , Souparna Lahiri , Sikha Karki , Upama Koju , Anita Shrestha , Tim Cadman

引用次数: 0

Preferences for proactive and reactive climate-adaptive forest management and the role of public financial support 对主动和被动适应气候的森林管理的偏好以及公共财政支持的作用

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103348

Dominik Braunschweiger , Tamaki Ohmura , Janine Schweier , Roland Olschewski , Tobias Schulz

The impacts of climate change threaten forest ecosystems and the services they provide. Policies and measures to make forests more resilient to climate-change-induced disturbances are needed, but the success of such efforts depends on their acceptance among forest owners and managers. Based on a discrete choice experiment survey among Swiss forest owners and managers in the canton of Bern, we analysed whether respondents prefer (i) proactive over reactive interventions, (ii) advanced/natural regeneration over plantings, (iii) native over non-native tree species, and (iv) the role governmental payment schemes play in these decisions. About one-third of the respondents belong to the class of forest managers and owners that are open to a transition strategy including proactive interventions and non-native tree species. Two-thirds of the forest owners and managers prefer a reactive restoration approach after disturbances and management that relies on native tree species. The amount of financial support plays a decisive role in the willingness of most respondents to accept adaptation measures. These results confirm the feasibility of diversifying the policy support toolbox to enable more proactive climate-adaptive forest management.

气候变化的影响威胁着森林生态系统及其提供的服务。我们需要制定政策和措施来提高森林对气候变化引起的干扰的抵御能力，但这些努力能否取得成功取决于森林所有者和管理者是否接受这些政策和措施。基于对瑞士伯尔尼州森林所有者和管理者的离散选择实验调查，我们分析了受访者是否更倾向于（i）主动干预而非被动干预，（ii）先进/自然再生而非种植，（iii）本地树种而非非本地树种，以及（iv）政府支付计划在这些决策中的作用。约有三分之一的受访者属于对过渡战略持开放态度的森林经营者和所有者，其中包括积极主动的干预措施和非本地树种。三分之二的森林所有者和管理者更倾向于在受到干扰后采取被动的恢复方法，并依靠本地树种进行管理。在大多数受访者是否愿意接受适应措施的问题上，资金支持的多少起着决定性作用。这些结果证实了使政策支持工具箱多样化的可行性，以便能够更加积极主动地进行适应气候的森林管理。

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引用次数: 0

Analyzing the National Park policymaking process in China from a multiple streams perspective: Domination by the political stream and policy entrepreneurs 从多流派视角分析中国国家公园的决策过程：政治流和政策创业者的主导作用

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103347

Shuning Zhu, Weiye Wang, Jinlong Liu

To fully understand the motivations behind the biodiversity conservation policy in a one-party state, this paper uses the multiple streams framework as a theoretical and through the lens of policy entrepreneurs, to furnish a renewed look at the policymaking process of conservation policy in China. For this purpose, we conducted a qualitative study based on 21 semi-structured interviews with key actors in the Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park and government documents from 2019 to 2022. This study revealed that policy entrepreneurs promote policy initiatives by building coalitions with higher-level bureaucrats and seizing critical moments to facilitate the convergence of three streams. In the process, the political stream played a dominant role in the multiple stream framework and public participation was post-positive, thus, we propose a modified multiple streams framework to better understand the policy process in a one-party state. This study provides new perspectives to understand the policy process in China and has important implications for biodiversity policymaking under a one-party state.

为了充分理解一党制国家生物多样性保护政策背后的动机，本文以多重流框架为理论基础，通过政策企业家的视角，重新审视中国保护政策的决策过程。为此，我们从 2019 年到 2022 年对中国东北虎豹国家公园的主要参与者进行了 21 次半结构式访谈，并根据政府文件进行了定性研究。研究发现，政策企业家通过与上级官僚建立联盟，抓住关键时刻促进三股力量的融合，从而推动政策措施的实施。在这一过程中，政治流在多流框架中发挥了主导作用，而公众参与则是后积极的，因此，我们提出了一个修正的多流框架，以更好地理解一党制国家的政策过程。本研究为理解中国的政策过程提供了新的视角，对一党制国家下的生物多样性政策制定具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Shaping multilateral regional governance of climate and forests: Exploring the influence of Forest industry lobbying on state participation 塑造气候与森林的多边区域治理：探索林业游说对国家参与的影响

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103346

Fredy David Polo-Villanueva , Simon Schaub , Laura Rivadeneira , Jale Tosun , Lukas Giessen , Sarah Lilian Burns

This study aims to characterise the institutional dynamics of Multilateral Regional Governance Arrangements at the Climate-Forest Interface (MRGA-CFI) and investigate the influence of the forest industry lobby groups on state participation in these arrangements. We use an original dataset to characterise the issue scope, spatial ambit, and governance functions of MRGA-CFI. State participation in these arrangements is modelled as a function of the strength of the forest industry lobby groups; measured as the proportion of forest that has been planted in a state, alongside various control variables. Our findings reveal that most MRGA-CFI focus on forests but are relevant for climate issues, have contiguous spatial ambit primarily in Asia and Africa, and focus on knowledge dissemination and capacity building. Quantitative analysis reveals a positive significant association between the strength of the forest industry lobby groups and state participation in MRGA-CFI. The analysis further suggests that states with stronger forest industry lobby groups are more likely to participate in non-centralised arrangements and those that focus on forest but not climate. Conversely, such states are also less likely to participate in governance arrangements that focus on both forest and climate issues. We conclude that while regional cooperation on climate and forests has been designed to capture funds from the climate regime and form negotiating coalitions, the forest industry lobbies governments to prevent such cooperation from overregulating their economic activities.

本研究旨在描述气候-森林界面多边区域治理安排（MRGA-CFI）的制度动态，并调查林业游说团体对国家参与这些安排的影响。我们使用原始数据集来描述气候-森林界面多边区域治理安排的问题范围、空间范围和治理功能。国家在这些安排中的参与度被模拟为林业游说团体实力的函数；林业游说团体的实力是以一个州的森林种植比例以及各种控制变量来衡量的。我们的研究结果表明，大多数 MRGA-CFI 以森林为重点，但也与气候问题相关，主要在亚洲和非洲有毗连的空间范围，并以知识传播和能力建设为重点。定量分析显示，森林产业游说团体的实力与国家对 MRGA-CFI 的参与之间存在正相关关系。分析进一步表明，林业游说团体实力较强的国家更有可能参与非集中化安排，以及那些关注森林而非气候的安排。相反，这些国家参与同时关注森林和气候问题的治理安排的可能性也较小。我们的结论是，虽然气候和森林方面的区域合作旨在从气候机制中获取资金并形成谈判联盟，但林业游说政府阻止此类合作对其经济活动进行过度监管。

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引用次数: 0

Science as a field of struggle: Gendered experiences of African scholars doing forest governance research 作为斗争领域的科学：从事森林治理研究的非洲学者的性别经验

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103339

Olena Strelnyk , Susanne Koch , Camilla Tetley , Shizuku Sunagawa , Amani J. Uisso

Building on scholarship addressing gender inequality in forestry, this paper investigates how African scholars experience gendered struggles in doing forest governance research. Employing Bourdieu's theoretical lens of science as a (gendered) social field of struggle, we consider scholars' participation in academia as shaped by dispositions related to gender, locality and other social dimensions of difference. Based on interviews with twenty female and male scholars affiliated with research organisations in African countries, we examine how these dispositions affect their experiences as academics in forest governance research. Therefore, we adopt an integrative interpretative approach to interview analysis focusing on narratives, positionings and discursive dynamics.

We present our empirical results according to two core themes: gendered experiences of struggle in reconciling family commitments with the requirements of scientific productivity and mobility; and gendered experiences of struggle related to doing science in male-dominated research environments. The study reveals that African women scholars in the field encounter specific difficulties in meeting the requirements of scientific productivity and mobility due to patriarchal gender orders. Aside from difficulties to reconcile their roles as wives, mothers and academics, they are confronted with instances of marginalisation in forest research discourse and fieldwork. The picture emerging from the empirical data is that the complexity of struggles female African scholars experience and the great efforts they need to make to participate in forest governance research remain somewhat ‘invisible’ in academic contexts. We argue that future research needs to explore more how socio-cultural conditions create specific barriers for women in scientific fields.

本文在研究林业中性别不平等问题的基础上，探讨了非洲学者在开展森林治理研究时如何经历性别斗争。我们从布迪厄的理论视角出发，将科学视为（性别化的）社会斗争领域，将学者参与学术研究视为由与性别、地域和其他社会差异相关的处置方式所决定。根据对非洲国家研究机构的二十位男女学者的访谈，我们研究了这些处置方式如何影响他们作为学者参与森林治理研究的经历。因此，我们在访谈分析中采用了一种综合性解释方法，重点关注叙事、立场和话语动态。我们根据两个核心主题介绍了我们的实证结果：在协调家庭承诺与科学生产力和流动性要求方面的性别斗争经验；以及在男性主导的研究环境中从事科学研究的性别斗争经验。研究显示，由于父权制的性别秩序，非洲女学者在满足科学生产力和流动性要求方面遇到了具体困难。除了难以兼顾妻子、母亲和学者的角色外，她们还面临着在森林研究话语和实地工作中被边缘化的情况。从经验数据中得出的结论是，非洲女性学者所经历的复杂斗争以及她们为参与森林治理研究而需要付出的巨大努力在学术环境中仍然是 "隐形的"。我们认为，未来的研究需要更多地探讨社会文化条件是如何在科学领域为女性制造特定障碍的。

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引用次数: 0

An assessment of forest use and it's benefits on livelihoods: A case of the Baka and Bantu communities, Southeast Cameroon 评估森林利用及其对生计的益处：喀麦隆东南部巴卡人和班图人社区的案例

IF 4 2区农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Forest Policy and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103344

Masse Ma Caliste Omam , Abed-nego Sonfo Tsamo , Hirokazu Yasuoka

The ways in which local people incorporate forest activities into their livelihood strategies vary considerably. In this study, we aim to evaluate the livelihoods of local people in relation to their use of forests by comparing their time allocation and involvement frequency in various forest-related activities in two localities in southeast Cameroon. We followed 80 persons using the individual tracing method to examine variations in the time allocated to forest-related activities and quantities of the most important non-timber forest products (NTFPs) collected depending on ethnic groups, genders and locations. Estimation results from this work showed a significant difference in the time allocated to NTFPs gathering and farming between the Baka and Bantu people, and no significant gender or location differences. Also, there was a significant difference in hunting time between Malea Ancien and Bintom but no ethnic differences. The quantities of the most important NTFPs collected varied between ethnic groups and genders, but not between locations. Our findings showed NTFPs gathering to be the most important livelihood activity of local people in terms of their time allocation, with forest use differing between ethnic groups, genders and locations. Moreover, scarcity of forest products caused by access restrictions might force local people to change their patterns of production and consumption which might be detrimental for conservation. Our results contribute to local understanding of forest use and to reconcile this with the livelihood of local people in the region to better inform decisions and policies concerning forest management.

当地人将森林活动纳入其生计战略的方式大相径庭。在这项研究中，我们旨在通过比较喀麦隆东南部两个地区的当地人在各种森林相关活动中的时间分配和参与频率，来评估当地人利用森林的生计情况。我们采用个体追踪法对 80 人进行了跟踪调查，研究了不同民族、性别和地区在森林相关活动时间分配和最重要的非木材森林产品（NTFP）采集数量上的差异。这项工作的估算结果显示，巴卡人和班图人分配给非木材森林产品采集和耕作的时间存在显著差异，而性别和地点差异不明显。此外，Malea Ancien 和 Bintom 的狩猎时间也有显著差异，但没有种族差异。采集的最重要的非物质文化遗产的数量在不同种族和性别之间存在差异，但在不同地点之间没有差异。我们的研究结果表明，就时间分配而言，采集非物质森林产品是当地人最重要的谋生活动，不同民族、性别和地点对森林的利用也不尽相同。此外，进入限制造成的林产品稀缺可能迫使当地人改变生产和消费模式，这可能不利于保护。我们的研究结果有助于当地人了解森林的使用情况，并将其与该地区当地人的生计相协调，从而更好地为有关森林管理的决策和政策提供信息。

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引用次数: 0