Hangjie Lin, Jordi Palacios, Sergio Fagherazzi, Cédric G. Fichot
Sediment budgets are diagnostic of saltmarsh resilience, yet quantifying net sediment fluxes remains constrained by limited, asynchronous observations of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and water flux. Using high-frequency observations from 15 U.S. saltmarsh stations, we combine phase folding and Monte Carlo simulations to assess whether sporadic sampling can reliably resolve net sediment exchange. We show that asynchronous SSC and water-flux measurements spanning >8 full tidal cycles robustly identify sediment sources and sinks. High-resolution optical satellite archives (Sentinel-2) typically capture >30 tidal cycles in most saltmarshes, yielding 5%–41% uncertainty in net flux magnitude across systems. This accuracy is sufficient to distinguish saltmarshes functioning as sediment sources from those acting as sinks at regional to global scales, though local calibration could improve accuracy. Integrating optical remote sensing with emerging water-flux technologies can therefore enable scalable assessments of tidal saltmarsh sediment budgets, providing a pathway for evaluating coastal resilience under accelerating sea-level rise.
{"title":"Estimating Net Sediment Fluxes in Tidal Systems Using Sporadic Data Sets: Implications for Using Remote Sensing to Assess Saltmarsh Resilience","authors":"Hangjie Lin, Jordi Palacios, Sergio Fagherazzi, Cédric G. Fichot","doi":"10.1029/2025gl117671","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117671","url":null,"abstract":"Sediment budgets are diagnostic of saltmarsh resilience, yet quantifying net sediment fluxes remains constrained by limited, asynchronous observations of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and water flux. Using high-frequency observations from 15 U.S. saltmarsh stations, we combine phase folding and Monte Carlo simulations to assess whether sporadic sampling can reliably resolve net sediment exchange. We show that asynchronous SSC and water-flux measurements spanning >8 full tidal cycles robustly identify sediment sources and sinks. High-resolution optical satellite archives (Sentinel-2) typically capture >30 tidal cycles in most saltmarshes, yielding 5%–41% uncertainty in net flux magnitude across systems. This accuracy is sufficient to distinguish saltmarshes functioning as sediment sources from those acting as sinks at regional to global scales, though local calibration could improve accuracy. Integrating optical remote sensing with emerging water-flux technologies can therefore enable scalable assessments of tidal saltmarsh sediment budgets, providing a pathway for evaluating coastal resilience under accelerating sea-level rise.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"105 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147440203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mesoscale eddies play a key role in transporting heat poleward across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). In addition to conventional eddies (warm-core anticyclones and cold-core cyclones), recent studies have detected a significant number of unconventional eddies at the surface (cold-core anticyclones and warm-core cyclones). Using satellite observations from 1993 to 2021, this study investigates how these unconventional eddies contribute to surface poleward eddy-induced heat flux (EHF) in the Southern Ocean. We find that unconventional eddies make a positive contribution to total EHF, but the EHF induced by a composite unconventional eddy is only half of that induced by a composite conventional eddy. While there has been an increasing trend in total EHF over since 1993, the contribution from unconventional eddies has decreased from 25% to 15% due to a decline in their number. Our findings demonstrate the importance of understanding the contribution of unconventional eddies to the EHF and its changes.
{"title":"Contribution of Unconventional Mesoscale Eddies to Surface Poleward Heat Flux in the Southern Ocean Over the Past Three Decades","authors":"Shimin Yuan, Ruiyi Chen, Yiyong Luo","doi":"10.1029/2025gl117149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117149","url":null,"abstract":"Mesoscale eddies play a key role in transporting heat poleward across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). In addition to conventional eddies (warm-core anticyclones and cold-core cyclones), recent studies have detected a significant number of unconventional eddies at the surface (cold-core anticyclones and warm-core cyclones). Using satellite observations from 1993 to 2021, this study investigates how these unconventional eddies contribute to surface poleward eddy-induced heat flux (EHF) in the Southern Ocean. We find that unconventional eddies make a positive contribution to total EHF, but the EHF induced by a composite unconventional eddy is only half of that induced by a composite conventional eddy. While there has been an increasing trend in total EHF over since 1993, the contribution from unconventional eddies has decreased from 25% to 15% due to a decline in their number. Our findings demonstrate the importance of understanding the contribution of unconventional eddies to the EHF and its changes.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"127 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147440247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Masako Tominaga, Maurice A. Tivey, Hannah F. Mark, William W. Sager, Jonas Preine
We demonstrate the presence of the oldest identifiable marine magnetic anomalies in the Phoenix lineations of the western Pacific based on careful assessment of new data. Recently acquired sea surface magnetic anomalies and multichannel seismic profiles confirm magnetic signals recorded within the Middle-Jurassic to Early Cretaceous basement. Our data definitively show coherent marine magnetic anomalies from M29 to M42 and possibly older. This closes the triangle of three mid-ocean ridge systems into a region of the western Pacific with a center around (16°N,159°E) where spreading flow lines merge. Our compilation of three complete lineation sets from the Japanese, Hawaiian, and now Phoenix lineations to M42 provides a new bound for the Jurassic Quiet Zone and models of geomagnetic field history and global tectonics.
{"title":"New Phoenix Magnetic Anomaly Data Confirms Global Nature of Jurassic Quiet Zone and Provides Insight Into Early Pacific Spreading","authors":"Masako Tominaga, Maurice A. Tivey, Hannah F. Mark, William W. Sager, Jonas Preine","doi":"10.1029/2025gl117569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117569","url":null,"abstract":"We demonstrate the presence of the oldest identifiable marine magnetic anomalies in the Phoenix lineations of the western Pacific based on careful assessment of new data. Recently acquired sea surface magnetic anomalies and multichannel seismic profiles confirm magnetic signals recorded within the Middle-Jurassic to Early Cretaceous basement. Our data definitively show coherent marine magnetic anomalies from M29 to M42 and possibly older. This closes the triangle of three mid-ocean ridge systems into a region of the western Pacific with a center around (16°N,159°E) where spreading flow lines merge. Our compilation of three complete lineation sets from the Japanese, Hawaiian, and now Phoenix lineations to M42 provides a new bound for the Jurassic Quiet Zone and models of geomagnetic field history and global tectonics.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147440244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Quanshu Zhao, Guoyan Jiang, Yingwen Zhao, Xiaoping Hu, Lei Yang, Lingling Ye, Haipeng Luo, Caijun Xu
The interplay between fault geometry and rupture behavior remains poorly understood. The 2025 Myanmar earthquake ruptured the Sagaing fault, a major continental strike-slip fault with simple geometry. We integrated geodetic and teleseismic observations to investigate its rupture process through finite-fault kinematic inversions and back-projection imaging. Our results show that the Myanmar earthquake ruptured bilaterally along the Sagaing fault, propagating southward from the hypocenter at a supershear speeds of 4.5–5.9 km/s and northward at a subshear speed of ∼3.1 km/s, producing a 472-km-long surface rupture. The aspect ratio of the rupture length to width is up to 42, the largest value ever documented, likely due to simple fault geometry and well-connected asperities. The 2025 Myanmar earthquake, along with historical major events, reveals that the geometrically simple Sagaing fault exhibits variable rupture extent and recurrence intervals for large earthquakes due to fault segmentation.
{"title":"Exceptionally Elongated Strike-Slip Rupture Caused by the 2025 MW 7.8 Myanmar Earthquake","authors":"Quanshu Zhao, Guoyan Jiang, Yingwen Zhao, Xiaoping Hu, Lei Yang, Lingling Ye, Haipeng Luo, Caijun Xu","doi":"10.1029/2025gl118510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118510","url":null,"abstract":"The interplay between fault geometry and rupture behavior remains poorly understood. The 2025 Myanmar earthquake ruptured the Sagaing fault, a major continental strike-slip fault with simple geometry. We integrated geodetic and teleseismic observations to investigate its rupture process through finite-fault kinematic inversions and back-projection imaging. Our results show that the Myanmar earthquake ruptured bilaterally along the Sagaing fault, propagating southward from the hypocenter at a supershear speeds of 4.5–5.9 km/s and northward at a subshear speed of ∼3.1 km/s, producing a 472-km-long surface rupture. The aspect ratio of the rupture length to width is up to 42, the largest value ever documented, likely due to simple fault geometry and well-connected asperities. The 2025 Myanmar earthquake, along with historical major events, reveals that the geometrically simple Sagaing fault exhibits variable rupture extent and recurrence intervals for large earthquakes due to fault segmentation.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"93 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147440248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
AI-based climate and weather models provide fast, skillful forecasts yet face a key challenge: predicting future climates while being trained with historical data. We investigate this issue by analyzing boreal winter land temperature biases in AI weather (FourCastNet V2 Small and Pangu Weather) and climate (Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2) models. We evaluate these models during time periods that are significantly more recent than the bulk of their training data, allowing us to assess how well they generalize to more modern conditions. We find that all models produce cold-biased mean temperatures, resembling climates from 15 to 20 years earlier than their prediction period. Furthermore, FourCastNet's and Pangu's cold bias is strongest for the hottest predicted temperatures, indicating limited training exposure to modern extreme heat events. In contrast, ACE2's bias is more evenly distributed but largest in regions, seasons, and parts of the temperature distribution where historic global warming is most pronounced.
基于人工智能的气候和天气模型提供快速、熟练的预测，但面临一个关键挑战：在使用历史数据进行训练的同时预测未来气候。我们通过分析人工智能天气（FourCastNet V2 Small和盘古天气）和气候（Ai2 climate Emulator version 2）模型中的北方冬季地面温度偏差来研究这一问题。我们对这些模型进行了评估，这些模型的时间周期比它们的大部分训练数据要近得多，这使我们能够评估它们在更现代的条件下的泛化程度。我们发现所有的模型都产生了偏冷的平均温度，类似于比预测期早15到20年的气候。此外，FourCastNet和盘古的“冷偏差”对于最热的预测温度是最强的，这表明现代极端高温事件的训练暴露有限。相比之下，ACE2的偏差分布更均匀，但在历史上全球变暖最明显的地区、季节和部分温度分布中最大。
{"title":"Forecasting the Future With Yesterday's Climate: Temperature Bias in AI Weather and Climate Models","authors":"Jacob B. Landsberg, Elizabeth A. Barnes","doi":"10.1029/2025gl119740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119740","url":null,"abstract":"AI-based climate and weather models provide fast, skillful forecasts yet face a key challenge: predicting future climates while being trained with historical data. We investigate this issue by analyzing boreal winter land temperature biases in AI weather (FourCastNet V2 Small and Pangu Weather) and climate (Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2) models. We evaluate these models during time periods that are significantly more recent than the bulk of their training data, allowing us to assess how well they generalize to more modern conditions. We find that all models produce cold-biased mean temperatures, resembling climates from 15 to 20 years earlier than their prediction period. Furthermore, FourCastNet's and Pangu's cold bias is strongest for the hottest predicted temperatures, indicating limited training exposure to modern extreme heat events. In contrast, ACE2's bias is more evenly distributed but largest in regions, seasons, and parts of the temperature distribution where historic global warming is most pronounced.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147440206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Antoine Hochet, Florian Sévellec, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk
Anthropogenic climate change is projected to intensify the global hydrological cycle, posing substantial risks to human societies. However, monitoring these changes through direct observations remains challenging, particularly over the oceans. Since long-term shifts in the hydrological cycle are expected to alter ocean salinity distribution, understanding the processes governing its evolution is essential. Salinity distribution is known to result from a balance between freshwater fluxes, which broaden the distribution, and mixing processes, which narrow it. Using a novel diagnostic based on the mean salinity variance budget applied to the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), we estimate that the large-scale salinity flux—primarily driven by the seasonal cycle—contributes approximately 23% to this mixing. Our framework also enables us to understand the regional balances, and to identify the regions where these balances are most significant. Our results suggest that accurately representing the seasonal salinity cycle in ocean and climate models is important for simulating the ocean salinity distribution.
{"title":"The Role of Large-Scale Seasonal Cycle Advection in Maintaining the Mean Ocean Salinity Distribution","authors":"Antoine Hochet, Florian Sévellec, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk","doi":"10.1029/2025gl119040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119040","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic climate change is projected to intensify the global hydrological cycle, posing substantial risks to human societies. However, monitoring these changes through direct observations remains challenging, particularly over the oceans. Since long-term shifts in the hydrological cycle are expected to alter ocean salinity distribution, understanding the processes governing its evolution is essential. Salinity distribution is known to result from a balance between freshwater fluxes, which broaden the distribution, and mixing processes, which narrow it. Using a novel diagnostic based on the mean salinity variance budget applied to the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), we estimate that the large-scale salinity flux—primarily driven by the seasonal cycle—contributes approximately 23% to this mixing. Our framework also enables us to understand the regional balances, and to identify the regions where these balances are most significant. Our results suggest that accurately representing the seasonal salinity cycle in ocean and climate models is important for simulating the ocean salinity distribution.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147384138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Junwen Zhou, Laurenz Schröer, Veerle Cnudde, Chi Zhang
The inter-pore fluid exchange, driven by molecular diffusion, is referred to as pore coupling. The pore coupling affects subsurface pore-scale physicochemical dynamics. Monitoring pore coupling is essential for understanding numerous hydrological and ecological processes. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) has effectively tracked pore coupling in saturated porous media. However, monitoring unsaturated pore coupling with NMR is challenging due to the complex pore network architecture and dynamic water-pathway connectivity. Based on X-ray computed tomography imaging, we develop a framework to simulate the NMR -distribution and -store- map of samples with distinct-sized pore environments at different water saturations, validated against measurements. NMR results, combined with visualized pore networks and phase distributions, demonstrate that reduced saturation induces increasingly tortuous and eventually disconnected water-pathways, thus restricting and ultimately blocking pore coupling. Our work enhances NMR applications in unsaturated media, providing accurate insights into the complex architecture and hydrodynamics in the pore network.
{"title":"How Does Fluid Exchange Between Pores in Unsaturated Porous Media?","authors":"Junwen Zhou, Laurenz Schröer, Veerle Cnudde, Chi Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2025gl120450","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120450","url":null,"abstract":"The inter-pore fluid exchange, driven by molecular diffusion, is referred to as pore coupling. The pore coupling affects subsurface pore-scale physicochemical dynamics. Monitoring pore coupling is essential for understanding numerous hydrological and ecological processes. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) has effectively tracked pore coupling in saturated porous media. However, monitoring unsaturated pore coupling with NMR is challenging due to the complex pore network architecture and dynamic water-pathway connectivity. Based on X-ray computed tomography imaging, we develop a framework to simulate the NMR <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/3a8bcd47-e5aa-4799-8ca5-ed26bd421944/grl72014-math-0001.png\"></span><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl72014:grl72014-math-0001\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl72014-math-0001.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<msub>\u0000<mi>T</mi>\u0000<mn>2</mn>\u0000</msub>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${T}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math>-distribution and <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/888b7c72-1276-40da-9e3d-59d16ac074fa/grl72014-math-0002.png\"></span><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl72014:grl72014-math-0002\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl72014-math-0002.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<msub>\u0000<mi>T</mi>\u0000<mn>2</mn>\u0000</msub>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${T}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math>-store-<span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/53f90c2b-b386-4954-8949-105faebcad90/grl72014-math-0003.png\"></span><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl72014:grl72014-math-0003\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl72014-math-0003.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<msub>\u0000<mi>T</mi>\u0000<mn>2</mn>\u0000</msub>\u0000</mrow>\u0000${T}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math> map of samples with distinct-sized pore environments at different water saturations, validated against measurements. NMR results, combined with visualized pore networks and phase distributions, demonstrate that reduced saturation induces increasingly tortuous and eventually disconnected water-pathways, thus restricting and ultimately blocking pore coupling. Our work enhances NMR applications in unsaturated media, providing accurate insights into the complex architecture and hydrodynamics in the pore network.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"71 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147384027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. A. Smeed, W. E. Johns, R. H. Smith, T. Petit, E. L. McDonagh, D. Rayner, D. L. Volkov, S. Elipot, J. B. Kajtar, B. A. King, Y. L. Firing, B. I. Moat
The RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS array in the subtropical gyre of the North Atlantic has measured the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the overturning streamfunction in depth coordinates since 2004. Here we show that the overturning streamfunction in density coordinates can be estimated by combining data from the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS array with repeated shipboard measurements from the Florida Straits and Argo data. The streamfunction in density coordinates highlights the shallow overturning cell associated with the subtropical gyre circulation, a feature that is obscured in depth coordinates. The AMOC calculated in density space is slightly greater than in depth space, but the variability of the time series are very similar with differences occurring when the streamfunction maximum occasionally switches from the main overturning cell to the shallow cell.
{"title":"Overturning Circulation of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre Computed in Density Coordinates at 26°N","authors":"D. A. Smeed, W. E. Johns, R. H. Smith, T. Petit, E. L. McDonagh, D. Rayner, D. L. Volkov, S. Elipot, J. B. Kajtar, B. A. King, Y. L. Firing, B. I. Moat","doi":"10.1029/2025gl118277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118277","url":null,"abstract":"The RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS array in the subtropical gyre of the North Atlantic has measured the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the overturning streamfunction in depth coordinates since 2004. Here we show that the overturning streamfunction in density coordinates can be estimated by combining data from the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS array with repeated shipboard measurements from the Florida Straits and Argo data. The streamfunction in density coordinates highlights the shallow overturning cell associated with the subtropical gyre circulation, a feature that is obscured in depth coordinates. The AMOC calculated in density space is slightly greater than in depth space, but the variability of the time series are very similar with differences occurring when the streamfunction maximum occasionally switches from the main overturning cell to the shallow cell.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"407 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147368515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Understanding the impacts of future emissions reductions on wildfire risk is critical for climate adaptation under carbon neutrality scenarios. Here, this study investigates how reductions in aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affect wildfire risk across major fire-prone regions in China by using the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Results show that wildfire risks under carbon neutrality vary regionally due to different climate drivers. Aerosol reductions can amplify wildfire risk, particularly in southern China by weakening atmospheric cooling and enhancing dryness. Conversely, GHG reductions lower wildfire risk by decreasing temperature and increasing precipitation. Although GHG-driven risk reduction outweighs aerosol-driven amplification, the balance between these opposing effects varies substantially by region, with northern and southern China exhibiting distinct dominant wildfire drivers under future scenarios. These findings highlight the complex interaction between emissions reductions and regional climate responses, underscoring the need for strategies to manage wildfire risk while achieving carbon neutrality.
{"title":"Reductions in Anthropogenic Aerosol and Greenhouse Gas Drive Divergent Regional Impacts on Wildfire Risks in China Under Carbon Neutrality","authors":"Lili Ren, Shicheng Yan, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang","doi":"10.1029/2025gl118321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118321","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the impacts of future emissions reductions on wildfire risk is critical for climate adaptation under carbon neutrality scenarios. Here, this study investigates how reductions in aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affect wildfire risk across major fire-prone regions in China by using the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Results show that wildfire risks under carbon neutrality vary regionally due to different climate drivers. Aerosol reductions can amplify wildfire risk, particularly in southern China by weakening atmospheric cooling and enhancing dryness. Conversely, GHG reductions lower wildfire risk by decreasing temperature and increasing precipitation. Although GHG-driven risk reduction outweighs aerosol-driven amplification, the balance between these opposing effects varies substantially by region, with northern and southern China exhibiting distinct dominant wildfire drivers under future scenarios. These findings highlight the complex interaction between emissions reductions and regional climate responses, underscoring the need for strategies to manage wildfire risk while achieving carbon neutrality.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147368513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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