The modulation of anticyclonic subsurface-intensified mode-water eddies (MWEs) on the oceanic physical and biological responses to tropical cyclones (TCs) is investigated using satellite measurements, in situ observations and numerical model outputs. Extreme cooling of the surface (4.2°C) and mixed-layer (2.3°C) is observed in a MWE, which can be remarkably stronger than those in adjacent cyclonic eddy and non-eddy environments. The special thermodynamic structure above the lens of MWEs, which would favor the TC-induced entrainment more efficiently, facilitates the elevation of substantial subsurface cold water. It also leads to increased mixed-layer salinity and deepening of the mixed-layer. Additionally, variations in nitrate and chlorophyll-a concentrations appear to be depressed and exhibit intricate multi-layer patterns due to TC-induced and MWE-influenced vertical processes. This study provides novel insights into the interactions between TCs and subsurface-intensified eddies.
{"title":"Modulation of Mode-Water Eddies on Upper Ocean Responses to Tropical Cyclones","authors":"Jue Ning, Xu Chen, Tao Wang, Qing Xu, Lixiao Xu","doi":"10.1029/2024gl112598","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl112598","url":null,"abstract":"The modulation of anticyclonic subsurface-intensified mode-water eddies (MWEs) on the oceanic physical and biological responses to tropical cyclones (TCs) is investigated using satellite measurements, in situ observations and numerical model outputs. Extreme cooling of the surface (4.2°C) and mixed-layer (2.3°C) is observed in a MWE, which can be remarkably stronger than those in adjacent cyclonic eddy and non-eddy environments. The special thermodynamic structure above the lens of MWEs, which would favor the TC-induced entrainment more efficiently, facilitates the elevation of substantial subsurface cold water. It also leads to increased mixed-layer salinity and deepening of the mixed-layer. Additionally, variations in nitrate and chlorophyll-a concentrations appear to be depressed and exhibit intricate multi-layer patterns due to TC-induced and MWE-influenced vertical processes. This study provides novel insights into the interactions between TCs and subsurface-intensified eddies.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"74 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143026614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
C. C. Zimmerman, T. J. W. Wagner, E. A. Maroon, D. E. McNamara
Using an idealized model of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), we test whether changes in the statistical properties of an AMOC time series can reveal Critical Slowing Down (CSD) and serve as early warnings of an upcoming critical transition. We calculate CSD indicators for simulations across varying parameter regimes, investigating the system's steady-state dynamical structure and its evolution under gradual climate forcing. We find that the modeled AMOC features bistability for relatively weak gyre salinity exchange, but no bistability when the gyres are sufficiently strong. However, CSD indicators consistently warn of a collapse across the gyre strength parameter space, even when no bifurcations occur, thus raising false alarms. We argue that CSD should be applied cautiously in systems where the dynamical structure and physical response to forcing are not fully known (such as the AMOC), specifically where it is not a priori clear whether the system is in a multistable regime.
{"title":"Slowed Response of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Not a Robust Signal of Collapse","authors":"C. C. Zimmerman, T. J. W. Wagner, E. A. Maroon, D. E. McNamara","doi":"10.1029/2024gl112415","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl112415","url":null,"abstract":"Using an idealized model of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), we test whether changes in the statistical properties of an AMOC time series can reveal Critical Slowing Down (CSD) and serve as early warnings of an upcoming critical transition. We calculate CSD indicators for simulations across varying parameter regimes, investigating the system's steady-state dynamical structure and its evolution under gradual climate forcing. We find that the modeled AMOC features bistability for relatively weak gyre salinity exchange, but no bistability when the gyres are sufficiently strong. However, CSD indicators consistently warn of a collapse across the gyre strength parameter space, even when no bifurcations occur, thus raising false alarms. We argue that CSD should be applied cautiously in systems where the dynamical structure and physical response to forcing are not fully known (such as the AMOC), specifically where it is not a priori clear whether the system is in a multistable regime.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143026611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate the frequency of subduction-related volcanic events over the past billion years. Our analysis reveals distinct peaks and troughs interpreted as significant fluctuations in global subduction flux. This approach has the advantage of being independent of paleogeographic reconstructions. However, it does not provide information on the spatial distribution of thermal heterogeneities at the core-mantle boundary. This likely explains why the long-term evolution of global subduction flux does not correlate in any simple way with the frequency of geomagnetic polarity reversals throughout the Phanerozoic. As an additional parameter, we suggest focusing on how variations in the Earth's inertia, due to changing subduction configurations over time, influence the thermal conditions at the core-mantle boundary and, consequently, the magnetic reversal frequency.
{"title":"Subduction-Related Volcanic Activity as a Proxy for Global Subduction Flux Over the Past Billion Years, and Its Correlation With Geomagnetic Superchrons","authors":"Jean Besse, Yves Gallet","doi":"10.1029/2024gl111360","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl111360","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the frequency of subduction-related volcanic events over the past billion years. Our analysis reveals distinct peaks and troughs interpreted as significant fluctuations in global subduction flux. This approach has the advantage of being independent of paleogeographic reconstructions. However, it does not provide information on the spatial distribution of thermal heterogeneities at the core-mantle boundary. This likely explains why the long-term evolution of global subduction flux does not correlate in any simple way with the frequency of geomagnetic polarity reversals throughout the Phanerozoic. As an additional parameter, we suggest focusing on how variations in the Earth's inertia, due to changing subduction configurations over time, influence the thermal conditions at the core-mantle boundary and, consequently, the magnetic reversal frequency.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143026616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Saurav Aryal, J. Scott Evans, Jerry D. Lumpe, Fazlul I. Laskar, Quan Gan, Wenbin Wang, Richard W. Eastes
The 14 October 2023 annular solar eclipse was visible from the US Pacific coast to Brazil's east coast. NASA's Global-scale Observations of Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission observed the first synoptic thermospheric temperature changes from a geo-stationary orbit above 47.5°W longitude between 17 and 20 UT during the eclipse. These daytime thermospheric changes were derived using GOLD's disk far ultraviolet (FUV) measurements. A significant decrease in the daytime disk temperatures (∼100 K) was seen near the peak annularity compared to the day before (baseline). The temperature reduction's spatial morphology is also like that of the eclipse shadow. Previous modeling studies of other eclipses typically show a much smaller temperature decrease (∼30–40 K; a factor of 2–3 lower) compared to GOLD observations. These first of kind results provide new insight into the dynamic response of the coupled thermosphere and ionosphere system to transient solar events, including eclipses.
{"title":"GOLD Observations of Thermospheric Neutral Temperature Variability During the 14 October 2023 Annular Solar Eclipse","authors":"Saurav Aryal, J. Scott Evans, Jerry D. Lumpe, Fazlul I. Laskar, Quan Gan, Wenbin Wang, Richard W. Eastes","doi":"10.1029/2024gl110676","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl110676","url":null,"abstract":"The 14 October 2023 annular solar eclipse was visible from the US Pacific coast to Brazil's east coast. NASA's Global-scale Observations of Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission observed the first synoptic thermospheric temperature changes from a geo-stationary orbit above 47.5°W longitude between 17 and 20 UT during the eclipse. These daytime thermospheric changes were derived using GOLD's disk far ultraviolet (FUV) measurements. A significant decrease in the daytime disk temperatures (∼100 K) was seen near the peak annularity compared to the day before (baseline). The temperature reduction's spatial morphology is also like that of the eclipse shadow. Previous modeling studies of other eclipses typically show a much smaller temperature decrease (∼30–40 K; a factor of 2–3 lower) compared to GOLD observations. These first of kind results provide new insight into the dynamic response of the coupled thermosphere and ionosphere system to transient solar events, including eclipses.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143020905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xiaoli Zhou, David Painemal, Andrew Gettleman, Graham Feingold
We present for the first time within the cloud physics context, the application of wavelet phase coherence analysis to disentangle counteracting physical processes associated with the lead-lag phase difference between cloud-proxy liquid water path (LWP) and aerosol-proxy cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) in an Eulerian framework using satellite-based observations and climate model outputs. This approach allows us to identify the causality and dominant adjustment timescales governing the correlation between LWP and Nd. Satellite observations indicate a more prevalent positive correlation between daytime LWP and Nd regardless of whether LWP leads or lags Nd. The positive cloud water response, associated with precipitation processes, typically occurs within 1 hr, while the negative response resulting from entrainment drying, usually takes 2–4 hr. CAM6 displays excessively rapid negative responses along with overly strong negative cloud water response and insufficient positive response, leading to a more negative correlation between LWP and Nd compared to observations.
{"title":"Exploring Causal Relationships and Adjustment Timescales of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in Geostationary Satellite Observations and CAM6 Using Wavelet Phase Coherence Analysis","authors":"Xiaoli Zhou, David Painemal, Andrew Gettleman, Graham Feingold","doi":"10.1029/2024gl111961","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl111961","url":null,"abstract":"We present for the first time within the cloud physics context, the application of wavelet phase coherence analysis to disentangle counteracting physical processes associated with the lead-lag phase difference between cloud-proxy liquid water path (LWP) and aerosol-proxy cloud droplet number concentration (<i>N</i><sub>d</sub>) in an Eulerian framework using satellite-based observations and climate model outputs. This approach allows us to identify the causality and dominant adjustment timescales governing the correlation between LWP and <i>N</i><sub>d</sub>. Satellite observations indicate a more prevalent positive correlation between daytime LWP and <i>N</i><sub>d</sub> regardless of whether LWP leads or lags <i>N</i><sub>d</sub>. The positive cloud water response, associated with precipitation processes, typically occurs within 1 hr, while the negative response resulting from entrainment drying, usually takes 2–4 hr. CAM6 displays excessively rapid negative responses along with overly strong negative cloud water response and insufficient positive response, leading to a more negative correlation between LWP and <i>N</i><sub>d</sub> compared to observations.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143020960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
During the 2023/2024 austral summer, the quasi-two-day (QTDW) with westward zonal wavenumber 3 (W3) abnormally reached its maximum amplitude at the December solstice (22 December 2023) for the first time in 20 years of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations, while the strongest event during austral summer usually occurs ∼2–6 weeks after the December solstice (on average January 21). Diagnostic analysis reveals that the westward winds in the Southern (summer) Hemisphere were anomalously strong (maximum of ∼90 m/s) during December 2023, which significantly shortened the e-folding time of QTDW-W3, and additionally generated the QTDW-W3 critical layers at the tropical summer stratopause from December 7. These two factors contributed to the earliest amplification of QTDW-W3. In essence, the cold equatorial stratosphere triggered the exceptionally strong westward winds in the Southern Hemisphere via thermal wind balance, which was related to the enhanced upward middle-atmosphere Hadley circulation during a prolonged Arctic stratopause warming event.
{"title":"First Observation of Dominant Quasi-Two-Day Wave With Westward Zonal Wavenumber 3 at the December Solstice During Austral Summer: Links to Persistent Winter Stratopause Warming","authors":"Yusong Qin, Sheng-Yang Gu, Xiankang Dou, Yafei Wei, Yuxuan Liu, Hao Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024gl113698","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl113698","url":null,"abstract":"During the 2023/2024 austral summer, the quasi-two-day (QTDW) with westward zonal wavenumber 3 (W3) abnormally reached its maximum amplitude at the December solstice (22 December 2023) for the first time in 20 years of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations, while the strongest event during austral summer usually occurs ∼2–6 weeks after the December solstice (on average January 21). Diagnostic analysis reveals that the westward winds in the Southern (summer) Hemisphere were anomalously strong (maximum of ∼90 m/s) during December 2023, which significantly shortened the <i>e</i>-folding time of QTDW-W3, and additionally generated the QTDW-W3 critical layers at the tropical summer stratopause from December 7. These two factors contributed to the earliest amplification of QTDW-W3. In essence, the cold equatorial stratosphere triggered the exceptionally strong westward winds in the Southern Hemisphere via thermal wind balance, which was related to the enhanced upward middle-atmosphere Hadley circulation during a prolonged Arctic stratopause warming event.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143020907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Leonardo Laipelt, Rodrigo C. D. de Paiva, Fernando M. Fan, Walter Collischonn, Fabrice Papa, Anderson Ruhoff
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of flooding, emphasizing the need to better understand these events. Satellite observations provide essential information, and the recent launch of SWOT offers new opportunities to investigate flood dynamics. Here, we use SWOT observations to detect significant hydrologic changes during an unprecedented 2024 flood in southern Brazil. In the Jacuí and Guaíba Rivers, water slopes increased dramatically–up to 11 times (from 0.82 to 9.59 cm/km) and 21 times (0.31–6.58 cm/km) compared to stable conditions. SWOT-derived surface water elevations captured 99% of water level variability compared to in situ observations. Additionally, flooding in Patos Lagoon was intensified by NE–SW wind forcing, causing water levels to rise by up to 40 cm, worsening the flood event. SWOT proves a unique opportunity to understand extreme flooding events, providing new support for flood risk management in the context of climate change.
{"title":"SWOT Reveals How the 2024 Disastrous Flood in South Brazil Was Intensified by Increased Water Slope and Wind Forcing","authors":"Leonardo Laipelt, Rodrigo C. D. de Paiva, Fernando M. Fan, Walter Collischonn, Fabrice Papa, Anderson Ruhoff","doi":"10.1029/2024gl111287","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl111287","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of flooding, emphasizing the need to better understand these events. Satellite observations provide essential information, and the recent launch of SWOT offers new opportunities to investigate flood dynamics. Here, we use SWOT observations to detect significant hydrologic changes during an unprecedented 2024 flood in southern Brazil. In the Jacuí and Guaíba Rivers, water slopes increased dramatically–up to 11 times (from 0.82 to 9.59 cm/km) and 21 times (0.31–6.58 cm/km) compared to stable conditions. SWOT-derived surface water elevations captured 99% of water level variability compared to in situ observations. Additionally, flooding in Patos Lagoon was intensified by NE–SW wind forcing, causing water levels to rise by up to 40 cm, worsening the flood event. SWOT proves a unique opportunity to understand extreme flooding events, providing new support for flood risk management in the context of climate change.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"74 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143020962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Feng Jiang, Wenjun Zhang, Julien Boucharel, Fei-Fei Jin, Michael J. McPhaden, Malte F. Stuecker
The boreal summer Atlantic Niño, the dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the equatorial Atlantic, exerts profound effects on local ecosystems and broader climate patterns, yet its prediction remains a long-standing challenge. The short lifecycle of the Atlantic Niño and the lack of precursor signals beyond about one season lead time have hindered the development of forecasts with useful accuracy and lead time. In this study, we propose a new approach to Atlantic Niño forecasting that extends beyond the Atlantic region by incorporating longer-lasting precursors in the Pacific associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. Using this prediction framework, we can hindcast the Atlantic Niño with skill up to three seasons in advance. Our results highlight the critical role of inter-basin interactions in shaping regional and global climate patterns, and provide new hope for improving seasonal climate prediction capabilities in the tropical Atlantic. Plain Summary Despite extensive efforts made by the climate research community, the equatorial Atlantic region, in particular the Atlantic Niño phenomenon, consistently demonstrates poor seasonal forecasting capabilities. In this study, we propose a new approach to Atlantic Niño forecasting by using longer-lasting precursors in the Pacific. The new prediction framework enables skillful prediction of the boreal summer Atlantic Niño events up to three seasons in advance. The results of our study have the possibility to reduce the existing gap in seasonal prediction for the equatorial Atlantic region by leveraging inter-basin information, particularly benefitting vulnerable communities in the tropical Atlantic basin.
{"title":"Multi-Season Lead Prediction of Atlantic Niño Facilitated by Pacific Ocean Precursors","authors":"Feng Jiang, Wenjun Zhang, Julien Boucharel, Fei-Fei Jin, Michael J. McPhaden, Malte F. Stuecker","doi":"10.1029/2024gl111494","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl111494","url":null,"abstract":"The boreal summer Atlantic Niño, the dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the equatorial Atlantic, exerts profound effects on local ecosystems and broader climate patterns, yet its prediction remains a long-standing challenge. The short lifecycle of the Atlantic Niño and the lack of precursor signals beyond about one season lead time have hindered the development of forecasts with useful accuracy and lead time. In this study, we propose a new approach to Atlantic Niño forecasting that extends beyond the Atlantic region by incorporating longer-lasting precursors in the Pacific associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. Using this prediction framework, we can hindcast the Atlantic Niño with skill up to three seasons in advance. Our results highlight the critical role of inter-basin interactions in shaping regional and global climate patterns, and provide new hope for improving seasonal climate prediction capabilities in the tropical Atlantic. Plain Summary Despite extensive efforts made by the climate research community, the equatorial Atlantic region, in particular the Atlantic Niño phenomenon, consistently demonstrates poor seasonal forecasting capabilities. In this study, we propose a new approach to Atlantic Niño forecasting by using longer-lasting precursors in the Pacific. The new prediction framework enables skillful prediction of the boreal summer Atlantic Niño events up to three seasons in advance. The results of our study have the possibility to reduce the existing gap in seasonal prediction for the equatorial Atlantic region by leveraging inter-basin information, particularly benefitting vulnerable communities in the tropical Atlantic basin.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143020961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Continuous seismic data analysis identifies signals related to physical processes within the Earth or on its surface. Characterizing seismic signals yields insights into source processes and Earth's structural features. Global seismic network analysis of long-period (25–100 s) surface waves has detected seismic events not identified through high-frequency body wave analysis. However, detecting long-lasting monochromatic signals with narrow spectral peaks, which carry valuable information about geological and environmental processes, remains challenging on a global scale. We developed a coherence-based approach to characterize long-period monochromatic signals on a global scale. In addition to signals originating from the Gulf of Guinea, Vanuatu islands, and a submarine volcano, we observed a previously unidentified signal originating from the Canadian Arctic, likely associated with glacier dynamics. Our approach explores long-period monochromatic seismic signals in continuous seismic data, providing a foundation for future studies to characterize the physical processes generating these signals on Earth's surface.
{"title":"Coherence-Based Characterization of a Long-Period Monochromatic Seismic Signal","authors":"Tomoya Takano, Piero Poli","doi":"10.1029/2024gl113290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl113290","url":null,"abstract":"Continuous seismic data analysis identifies signals related to physical processes within the Earth or on its surface. Characterizing seismic signals yields insights into source processes and Earth's structural features. Global seismic network analysis of long-period (25–100 s) surface waves has detected seismic events not identified through high-frequency body wave analysis. However, detecting long-lasting monochromatic signals with narrow spectral peaks, which carry valuable information about geological and environmental processes, remains challenging on a global scale. We developed a coherence-based approach to characterize long-period monochromatic signals on a global scale. In addition to signals originating from the Gulf of Guinea, Vanuatu islands, and a submarine volcano, we observed a previously unidentified signal originating from the Canadian Arctic, likely associated with glacier dynamics. Our approach explores long-period monochromatic seismic signals in continuous seismic data, providing a foundation for future studies to characterize the physical processes generating these signals on Earth's surface.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143020906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Lucas Harris, Ming Zhao, Kevin Hodges, Zhihong Tan, Kai-Yuan Cheng, Linjiong Zhou
Using the novel kilometer-scale global storm-resolving model Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory eXperimental System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (X-SHiELD), we investigate the impact of a 4 K increase in sea surface temperatures on Northern Hemisphere midlatitude cyclones, during the January 2020–January 2022 period. X-SHiELD simulations reveal a poleward shift in cyclone tracks under warming, consistent with CMIP projections. However, X-SHiELD's high resolution and explicit deep convection allowed for a detailed analysis of the warm and cold sectors, which are instead typically underrepresented in traditional CMIP models. Instead, compositing the 100 most intense midlatitude cyclones in the North Atlantic, we find that the warm sector exhibits statistically significant increases in wind speed and precipitation of up to 15% locally per degree of warming, while changes in the cold sector are less pronounced. This study demonstrates X-SHiELD's potential to provide a realistic-looking perspective into the evolving risks posed by midlatitude cyclones in a warming climate.
{"title":"Response of Extreme North Atlantic Midlatitude Cyclones to a Warmer Climate in the GFDL X-SHiELD Kilometer-Scale Global Storm-Resolving Model","authors":"Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Lucas Harris, Ming Zhao, Kevin Hodges, Zhihong Tan, Kai-Yuan Cheng, Linjiong Zhou","doi":"10.1029/2024gl112570","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl112570","url":null,"abstract":"Using the novel kilometer-scale global storm-resolving model Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory eXperimental System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (X-SHiELD), we investigate the impact of a 4 K increase in sea surface temperatures on Northern Hemisphere midlatitude cyclones, during the January 2020–January 2022 period. X-SHiELD simulations reveal a poleward shift in cyclone tracks under warming, consistent with CMIP projections. However, X-SHiELD's high resolution and explicit deep convection allowed for a detailed analysis of the warm and cold sectors, which are instead typically underrepresented in traditional CMIP models. Instead, compositing the 100 most intense midlatitude cyclones in the North Atlantic, we find that the warm sector exhibits statistically significant increases in wind speed and precipitation of up to 15% locally per degree of warming, while changes in the cold sector are less pronounced. This study demonstrates X-SHiELD's potential to provide a realistic-looking perspective into the evolving risks posed by midlatitude cyclones in a warming climate.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"103 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142992624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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