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Profiling the Fraudster: Findings from a Rapid Evidence Assessment 分析欺诈者:来自快速证据评估的发现
IF 2.2 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/17440572.2022.2137670
Anna Gekoski, J. Adler, Tim Mcsweeney
ABSTRACT Fraud accounts for a growing proportion of UK crime, causing economic losses, societal and personal harms. While there is a growing body of literature on the scale and prevalence of fraud, little research has been undertaken about those who carry out the crime – the offenders – since seminal studies undertaken in the 1970s and 80s. This study reports on findings from a Rapid Evidence Assessment commissioned by the Home Office, to explore this gap, seeking to provide an up-to-date socio-demographic profile of fraudsters. It was found that much of the international research considered supports the historical picture of the traditional fraudster as an older, White, employed, well-educated male of a middle-high socio-demographic status, who appear to be late onset offenders. However, there may be different types/groups of fraudsters emerging that might not fit the traditional profile.
诈骗在英国犯罪中所占的比例越来越大,造成经济损失、社会和个人伤害。虽然关于欺诈的规模和普遍程度的文献越来越多,但自20世纪70年代和80年代进行了开创性的研究以来,对实施犯罪的人(罪犯)进行的研究很少。这项研究报告了由内政部委托进行的快速证据评估的结果,旨在探索这一差距,寻求提供欺诈者的最新社会人口统计资料。研究发现,许多国际研究都支持这样一种观点,即传统的欺诈者是年龄较大、受过良好教育的白人男性,具有中高的社会人口地位,他们似乎是晚发性犯罪者。然而,可能会出现不同类型/群体的欺诈者,这些人可能不符合传统的特征。
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引用次数: 0
Changing attitudes: lessons for countering the trafficking of cultural objects 转变态度:打击文物贩运的经验教训
IF 2.2 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-08-31 DOI: 10.1080/17440572.2022.2117697
S. R. Runhovde
ABSTRACT The illicit transnational trades in cultural goods and wildlife, while distinct, share many characteristics. This article identifies and compares the intricacies of controlling trafficking in cultural objects and wildlife from a customs perspective. Findings indicate that in Norwegian customs, the countering of wildlife trafficking benefits from at least two conditions: 1) officers have become more aware of the characteristics and harmful consequences of the trade, and 2) efficient interactions with other stakeholders ensure tangible outcomes in the form of seizures and punishment of offenders. While challenges remain, these factors serve to motivate officers and, in the last decade, have strengthened the control of wildlife trafficking. The countering of illicit trade in cultural objects, however, does not benefit from such circumstances. Findings suggest that the officers’ awareness of, and attitude towards, trafficking of such materials are key factors to consider for evolving the response.
文化产品和野生动物的非法跨国贸易虽然不同,但有许多共同特点。本文从海关角度确定并比较了控制文物和野生动物贩运的复杂性。调查结果表明,在挪威海关,打击野生动物贩运至少有两个条件:1)官员更加了解贸易的特点和有害后果,2)与其他利益攸关方的有效互动确保了以扣押和惩罚罪犯的形式取得切实成果。尽管挑战依然存在,但这些因素有助于激励官员,并在过去十年中加强了对野生动物贩运的控制。然而,打击文物非法贸易并没有从这种情况中获益。调查结果表明,警察对贩运此类材料的认识和态度是制定应对措施时需要考虑的关键因素。
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引用次数: 1
The vanishing independent: adapting to the changing dynamics of drug trafficking organisations in Mexico 正在消失的独立人士:适应墨西哥贩毒组织不断变化的动态
IF 2.2 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-08-29 DOI: 10.1080/17440572.2022.2117696
R. Guy, Piotr A. Chomczyński, R. Cortés
ABSTRACT Organised Crime in Mexico has undergone considerable change since 2006 when violent competition between drug trafficking organisations (DTOs) intensified. This article explores changes in drug trafficking activities from the perspective of independent dealers in Mexico City. Based on in-depth interviews (N = 64) we conclude that freelance dealers are increasingly pressured to become affiliated with DTOs despite being reluctant to do so. Our data suggest that cartels are more successful in attracting independent dealers with few economic alternatives, than those who are able to support themselves with a combination of licit and illicit activities. Therefore, to the degree that illicit drug sales are essential for economic sustenance, we expect that drug dealing for a criminal organisation will become norm as independent dealer become drawn into cartel work as licit opportunities diminish. For this reason we expect that independent dealers will continue their decline as the prevalence of DTOs increase from the steady demand for illicit substances.
摘要自2006年贩毒组织之间的暴力竞争加剧以来,墨西哥的有组织犯罪发生了巨大变化。本文从墨西哥城独立毒贩的角度探讨了贩毒活动的变化。根据深入访谈(N=64),我们得出结论,自由经销商尽管不愿意加入DTO,但仍面临越来越大的压力。我们的数据表明,卡特尔在吸引几乎没有经济选择的独立经销商方面比那些能够通过合法和非法活动相结合来养活自己的经销商更成功。因此,在非法药物销售对经济维持至关重要的程度上,我们预计,随着合法机会的减少,独立经销商被卷入卡特尔工作,犯罪组织的毒品交易将成为常态。因此,我们预计,随着DTO的流行率因对非法药物的稳定需求而增加,独立经销商将继续下降。
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引用次数: 0
What happens when the police go on strike? Homicides increase. Evidence from Ceará, Brazil 警察罢工会发生什么?凶杀案增加。证据来自巴西塞雷<e:1>
IF 2.2 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-07-27 DOI: 10.1080/17440572.2022.2098121
Alberto Aziani

ABSTRACT

This study investigates how an abrupt reduction in policing impacts upon the occurrence of homicides in a violent context in the Global South. The study utilizes a police strike in the Brazilian state of Ceará in summer 2020 as a quasi-natural experiment. Separate SARIMA and Exponential Smoothing models fitted on data on weekly homicide counts from January 2015 to the beginning of the strike are used to generate forecasts of homicides in a virtual counterfactual scenario with no police strikes. Actual homicide counts and forecasts are subsequently compared. The strike led to a statistically significant increase in homicides ranging between 110% and 250%. A difference-in-differences analysis confirms this result. The elasticity of homicides with respect to police presence is tentatively estimated at between -1.5 and -5.0. Even in a violent context, the perception of a higher risk of apprehension induced by police presence acts as a powerful deterrent against homicides.

摘要本研究探讨了在南半球暴力背景下,警务工作的突然减少对凶杀案发生的影响。该研究利用2020年夏天巴西塞埃尔州的一次警察罢工作为准自然实验。独立的SARIMA和指数平滑模型拟合了从2015年1月到罢工开始的每周凶杀数量数据,用于在没有警察罢工的虚拟反事实场景中生成凶杀预测。实际的杀人数量和预测随后会进行比较。从统计数据来看,这次罢工导致了凶杀案的显著增长,增幅在110%到250%之间。差异中的差异分析证实了这一结果。凶杀案相对于警察存在的弹性初步估计在-1.5和-5.0之间。即使是在暴力的情况下,警察的存在也会增加逮捕的风险,这是对杀人的强大威慑。
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引用次数: 1
Mapping hawala risks around the world: the use of a composite indicator 绘制世界各地的hawala风险:综合指标的使用
IF 2.2 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17440572.2022.2098120
Chang-Ryung Han, B. Leeuw, H. Nelen
ABSTRACT The aim of this study is to map the landscape of risk faced by each country with respect to the presence and prosperity of informal fund transfer (IFT) systems. This study constructed a composite indicator to assess IFT risks of the 121 countries. The IFT risk that this study intended to gauge is not crime risk(s) that IFT systems cause but risk that IFT systems operate and prosper in given countries. The IFT risk indicator was developed with eleven variables extracted from public domain datasets regarding migration, access to formal financial institutions, AML/CFT measures, and societal attitudes towards informality. Routine activity theory was used to derive the factors associated with IFT risk. This study found that the level of IFT risk is associated with their levels of economic development. The main advantage of the IFT risk indicator is that it can gauge ‘nuanced’ differences in IFT risks among countries.
摘要本研究的目的是绘制每个国家在非正规资金转移(IFT)系统的存在和繁荣方面面临的风险格局。本研究构建了一个综合指标来评估121个国家的IFT风险。本研究旨在衡量的IFT风险不是IFT系统造成的犯罪风险,而是IFT系统在特定国家运行和繁荣的风险。IFT风险指标是用从公共领域数据集中提取的11个变量开发的,这些变量涉及移民、进入正规金融机构、AML/CFT措施和社会对非正规性的态度。常规活动理论用于推导与IFT风险相关的因素。这项研究发现,IFT风险水平与他们的经济发展水平有关。IFT风险指标的主要优势在于,它可以衡量各国IFT风险的“细微”差异。
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引用次数: 0
Is there a link between immigration and incarceration rate?: Evidence from the Syrian refugee influx to Turkey 移民和监禁率之间有联系吗?:叙利亚难民涌入土耳其的证据
IF 2.2 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-05-24 DOI: 10.1080/17440572.2022.2077331
M. A. Mercan, H. Barlin, Nazire Begen
ABSTRACT In this study, we investigate the impact of an increase in the number of refugees on a host country’s incarceration rate, through the specific case of the inflow of Syrian refugees into Turkey. Using statistics from Turkish penal institutions for the period of 2010 to 2015, we applied the difference-in-difference, panel event study, synthetic control, and instrumental variable approaches to measure the changes in the incarceration rate during the time of peak Syrian refugee migration. Our results suggest that the refugee influx into sampled Turkish cities did not have a statistically significant impact on the incarceration rate when compared to control locations. All four of the methods yielded similar results in the robustness exercises designed to check the relationship between the number of refugees and the rate of incarceration.
摘要在本研究中,我们通过叙利亚难民流入土耳其的具体案例,调查了难民人数增加对东道国监禁率的影响。利用土耳其刑事机构2010年至2015年期间的统计数据,我们应用差异、小组事件研究、综合控制和工具变量方法来衡量叙利亚难民移民高峰期监禁率的变化。我们的研究结果表明,与对照地点相比,涌入土耳其抽样城市的难民对监禁率没有统计学上的显著影响。这四种方法在旨在检查难民人数与监禁率之间关系的稳健性练习中都产生了类似的结果。
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引用次数: 0
International weapons trafficking from the United States of America: a crime script analysis of the means of transportation 来自美利坚合众国的国际武器贩运:运输工具的犯罪脚本分析
IF 2.2 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/17440572.2022.2067847
Fiona Langlois, Damien Rhumorbarbe, Denis Werner, Nicolas Florquin, S. Caneppele, Quentin Rossy
ABSTRACT Using a crime script analysis, this research aims to document how smugglers operate when they traffic arms from the US to foreign countries. Our study is based on an analysis of 66 cases that have been judged by US courts (2008–2017). The criminal activities involved are detailed in a series of distinct scenes, according to Cornish’s theory. Five scripts have been developed, based on the means of transport used by the traffickers: road transport, commercial airlines, postal services, freight transport and crossing the border on foot. Results suggest that most criminals prefer to operate according to an established modus operandi. This commonality suggests that the potential exists for the professionalisation of this criminal activity. Indeed, offenders are likely to maintain it to reduce effort and risk. Complementary sources of information would help to enrich the approach proposed in this study and to address the challenges posed by complex cases.
摘要通过犯罪脚本分析,本研究旨在记录走私者在从美国向外国贩运武器时的行为。我们的研究基于对美国法院判决的66起案件(2008-2017年)的分析。根据康沃尔的理论,所涉及的犯罪活动被详细描述在一系列不同的场景中。已经根据贩运者使用的运输工具制定了五个脚本:公路运输、商业航空公司、邮政服务、货运和徒步越境。调查结果表明,大多数罪犯更喜欢按照既定的作案手法作案。这种共同性表明,这种犯罪活动存在专业化的潜力。事实上,犯罪者可能会保留它,以减少努力和风险。补充信息来源将有助于丰富本研究中提出的方法,并应对复杂案件带来的挑战。
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引用次数: 1
The intangible benefits of criminal mentorship 刑事指导的无形利益
IF 2.2 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/17440572.2022.2068525
Frédéric Ouellet, M. Bouchard, Valerie M. Thomas
ABSTRACT Individuals who report having had a mentor also tend to report higher levels of criminal achievement. However, prior studies focused on indirect yet tangible outcomes of mentorship, telling us little about the direct – though potentially intangible – benefits of these relationships to the mentee. In this study, we analyse the content of 28 life story narratives of offenders to examine the effects of mentor-mentee relationships. Half of the participants reported having had a mentor, but many did not meet our definition of mentorship that emphasised direct support in the context of criminal activities. Instead, participants described many intangible benefits of mentorship that we classified in two general categories: benefits to one’s criminal capital (high-level career advice, practical skills), and benefits to one’s social capital, in the form of either criminal partnership, an enhancement to one’s reputation or protection, or providing mentees with the independence necessary to succeed on their own.
报告有过导师的个人也倾向于报告更高水平的犯罪成就。然而,先前的研究集中在师徒关系的间接但有形的结果上,很少告诉我们这些关系对被指导者的直接(尽管可能是无形的)好处。在这项研究中,我们分析了28个罪犯的生活故事叙述的内容,以检验师徒关系的影响。一半的参与者报告说他们有一个导师,但许多人不符合我们对导师的定义,即强调在犯罪活动背景下的直接支持。相反,参与者描述了师徒关系的许多无形好处,我们将其分为两大类:一是对犯罪资本的好处(高水平的职业建议,实用技能),二是对社会资本的好处,其形式要么是犯罪伙伴关系,要么是提高自己的声誉或保护,要么是为学员提供独立成功所必需的独立性。
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引用次数: 0
Taking care of everyone’s business: interpreting Sicilian Mafia embedment through spatial network analysis 照顾每个人的事务:通过空间网络分析解读西西里黑手党的嵌入
IF 2.2 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/17440572.2022.2073440
M. Battisti, A. Lavezzi, Roberto Musotto
ABSTRACT Mafia-type organisations often have a strong geographical and cultural entrenchment in the territory they belong. However, their analysis as a spatially networked social structure is still missing. A combined socio-spatial network analysis is presented here, through the demise of a large police operation called Operazione Perseo in 2008. This approach is developed in two ways. At first, a visual representation of the social network of this large group of mafiosi embedded in a geographical space is presented. Three main salient territorial features of the network are thus highlighted. A high density of links in some neighbourhoods, as well as connections across different Mandamenti, the territorial units where Mafia families operate, and the correlation of links and socio-economic determinants, like the unemployment rates. Secondly, a spatial econometric analysis of centrality measures of the group is suggested here. Findings show a positive spatial correlation in the Eigenvalue centrality scores.
黑手党类型的组织通常在其所属地区拥有强大的地理和文化根基。然而,他们作为空间网络社会结构的分析仍然缺失。本文通过2008年一项名为Perseo的大型警察行动的终止,对社会空间网络进行了综合分析。这种方法有两种发展方式。首先,本文呈现了嵌入在地理空间中的这一庞大黑手党群体的社会网络的视觉表现。因此,网络的三个主要突出的地域特征被突出。在一些社区中有高密度的联系,在不同的Mandamenti(黑手党家族活动的领土单位)之间也有联系,以及联系与社会经济决定因素(如失业率)的相关性。其次,本文建议对该群体的中心性测度进行空间计量分析。研究结果表明,特征值中心性得分具有正的空间相关性。
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引用次数: 0
Lawyers as money laundering enablers? An evolving and contentious relationship 律师是洗钱的帮凶?一种不断发展的、有争议的关系
IF 2.2 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/17440572.2022.2089122
M. Levi
ABSTRACT Using limited datasets and case studies drawn from the Global North and South, this article critically considers the available evidence about the involvement of lawyers in elite money laundering and attempts to control their involvement. In addition to lawyers’ lobbying and drafting laws , the normal focus of the ‘enablers’ discourse is on lawyers using expert knowledge and legal professional privilege/professional secrecy to facilitate frauds and to conceal the criminal origins of the funds of others. In few known laundering-for-others casesis there much evidence that lawyer assistance goes beyond doing their normal business: setting up constructions for clients that avoid external scrutiny is usually legal. It is implausible to fully resolve the extent to which lawyer ‘enablers’ are, respectively, naïve, negligent, wilfully blind and/or intentionally criminal. Within-firm supervision and both real and expected regulatory/criminal justice/reputational controls may have an impact, but the evidence base for assessing control effectiveness remains weak.
本文利用有限的数据集和来自全球北方和南方的案例研究,批判性地考虑了律师参与精英洗钱的现有证据,并试图控制他们的参与。除了律师的游说和起草法律之外,“使能者”话语的正常焦点是律师利用专业知识和法律专业特权/专业保密来促进欺诈和隐瞒他人资金的犯罪来源。在少数已知的为他人洗钱的案例中,有很多证据表明,律师的协助超出了他们的正常业务范围:为客户建立结构,避免外部审查通常是合法的。完全解决律师“促成者”分别是naïve、疏忽、故意失明和/或故意犯罪的程度是不可能的。公司内部监督以及实际和预期的管制/刑事司法/声誉控制可能会产生影响,但评估控制有效性的证据基础仍然薄弱。
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引用次数: 2
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Global Crime
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