Geoscience frontiers最新文献_第2页

Optimized inversion of Chang’e-2 gamma-ray spectrum data into heat production rate for thermal evolution study: Imbrium Basin as an example 热演化研究中嫦娥二号伽玛能谱数据产热率优化反演——以英brium盆地为例

IF 8.9 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience frontiers

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2026.102254

Zhenghe Li, Yuyan Zhao, Xiaodan Tang, Zhiguo Meng

The lunar surface element distribution obtained from Chang’e-2 gamma-ray spectrometer has provided new insights into the thermal activity and element migration of the Moon. To further investigate lunar thermal evolution and geological activities, the heat production rate (HPR) distribution was selected as a breakthrough. An optimized inversion method for Chang’e-2 gamma-ray spectrum data, based on multivariate statistical analysis, was developed to effectively reduce the influence of time-varying factors by improving the background estimation and subtraction process. The results validated the utility of HPR for lunar research. The global HPR distribution maps not only provide a reference for assessing the thermal state of the lunar surface, demonstrating that radiogenic heat production can be reliably studied at a global scale, but also enable detailed investigations of regional geological processes. In the Imbrium Basin, HPR clearly reflects the effects of large-scale impact events and subsequent mare volcanic activity. High-HPR materials associated with impact ejecta can be distinguished from the lower-HPR mare basalts. Furthermore, by integrating HPR data with additional geological information, it is possible to assess and partially subdivide the structure of the Imbrium Basin, providing new quantitative insights into its evolution and compositional heterogeneity.

“嫦娥二号”伽玛能谱仪获得的月面元素分布数据为月球热活动和元素迁移提供了新的认识。为了进一步研究月球热演化和地质活动，选择产热率（HPR）分布作为突破口。提出了一种基于多元统计分析的嫦娥二号伽玛能谱数据优化反演方法，通过改进背景估计和减法处理，有效降低时变因素的影响。结果验证了HPR在月球研究中的实用性。全球HPR分布图不仅为评估月球表面热状态提供了参考依据，表明可以在全球尺度上可靠地研究放射性成因热，而且可以对区域地质过程进行详细调查。在Imbrium盆地，HPR清楚地反映了大规模撞击事件和随后的海火山活动的影响。与撞击喷出物相关的高hpr物质可以与低hpr的海玄武岩区分开来。此外，通过将HPR数据与其他地质信息相结合，可以评估和部分细分Imbrium盆地的结构，为其演化和成分非均质性提供新的定量见解。

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引用次数: 0

Ultra-deep tight sandstone reservoirs quality evaluation with a new perspective on petrofacies and differential diagenesis: Insights from the Tarim Basin 塔里木盆地超深层致密砂岩储层物性评价：岩相与差异成岩作用新视角

IF 8.9 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience frontiers

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2026.102252

Zhida Liu , Xiaorong Luo , Xiaofei Fu , Xianqiang Song , Haijun Yang , Haixue Wang

Ultra-deep sandstone reservoirs are characterized by poor petrophysical properties. Identifying effective reservoir rocks and evaluating reservoir quality are key but challenging aspects in the exploration and development of ultra-deep hydrocarbon reservoirs. Adopting the Cretaceous Bashijiqike Formation of the Keshen gas field in the Tarim Basin with burial depths exceeding 8000 m as an example, we evaluated the quality of this ultra-deep tight sandstone reservoir by classifying petrofacies and analyzing the diagenetic evolution of different petrofacies. We revealed that although the petrophysical properties of ultra-deep reservoirs are poor, effective reservoir rocks with relatively high porosities and permeabilities can still develop locally. According to the detrital mineralogy and texture, diagenesis, and pore system, we classified sandstone into effective petrofacies (ductile lithic-lean sandstone) and tight petrofacies (ductile lithic-rich sandstone and tightly carbonate-cemented sandstone), which underwent differential diagenetic evolution processes. Such processes significantly influence the quality of ultra-deep tight sandstone reservoirs. High contents of ductile grains and carbonate cement explained the low reservoir quality. The ductile lithic-rich sandstone was relatively fine-grained and contained a high content of ductile grains, which, owing to mechanical compaction during early burial, were compacted and largely occupied the pore space, yielding a low reservoir quality. The carbonate-cemented sandstone pores were filled with large amounts of carbonate cements during early diagenesis, resulting in a low reservoir quality. The ductile lithic-lean sandstone was relatively coarse-grained, contained a high content of rigid grains, and exhibited moderate compaction, with relatively well-developed primary pores and secondary dissolution pores. This sandstone exhibited the highest reservoir quality and represents an effective reservoir rock type in ultra-deep tight sandstone reservoirs. This study provides new insights for the evaluation of the effective properties of ultra-deep tight sandstone reservoirs.

超深层砂岩储层岩石物性差。有效储层识别和储层质量评价是超深层油气勘探开发的关键和难点。以塔里木盆地克深气田埋深超过8000 m的白垩系巴什基奇克组为例，通过岩相分类和不同岩相成岩演化分析，评价了该超深致密砂岩储层的储层质量。研究发现，虽然超深层储层岩石物性较差，但仍可局部发育孔隙度和渗透率较高的有效储层。根据碎屑矿物学和结构、成岩作用和孔隙系统，将砂岩划分为有效岩相（韧性岩屑-贫砂岩）和致密岩相（韧性岩屑-富砂岩和紧密碳酸盐-胶结砂岩），经历了不同的成岩演化过程。这些过程对超深层致密砂岩储层的储层质量有显著影响。韧性颗粒和碳酸盐胶结物含量高，说明储层质量较差。富韧性岩屑砂岩粒度较细，韧性颗粒含量较高，由于埋藏早期的机械压实作用，韧性颗粒被压实，大量占据孔隙空间，储层质量较低。碳酸盐胶结砂岩孔隙在早期成岩作用中被大量碳酸盐胶结物充填，导致储层质量较低。延性岩屑-贫砂岩颗粒较粗，刚性颗粒含量高，压实程度适中，原生孔隙和次生溶蚀孔发育较好。该砂岩储层质量最高，是超深层致密砂岩储层中一种有效的储层岩型。该研究为超深层致密砂岩储层有效物性评价提供了新的思路。

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引用次数: 0

Contrasted detection of lipid biomarkers in Ediacaran stromatolites from Amane-n’Tourhart in the Moroccan Anti-Atlas 摩洛哥Anti-Atlas中Amane-n 'Tourhart地区埃迪卡拉纪叠层石中脂类生物标志物的对比检测

IF 8.9 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience frontiers

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2026.102251

Daniel Carrizo , Mohamed Beraaouz , Mohamed Hssaisoune , Laura Sánchez-García , Olga Prieto-Ballesteros , Víctor Parro

During the Ediacaran Period (635–538.8 Ma), the photosynthetic activity due to cyanobacterial communities and early photosynthetic eukaryotes prompted the wide oxygenation of the terrestrial atmosphere. Biogeochemical evidence of this type of communities and activity in different terrestrial environments is very scarce. In this work, we search for lipid biomarkers and their carbon specific isotopic composition in stromatolites from an Ediacaran volcanic alkaline lake in the Anti-Atlas Mountains, in Morocco. Molecular analysis reveals the presence of n-alkanes, isoprenoids, hopanes and steranes in the Amane-n’Tourhart stromatolites, with compound-specific δ¹³C values for n-alkanes and isoprenoids within the range of autotrophic organisms using the Calvin-Benson-Bassham cycle. Results from contamination controls and laboratory tests attest for the indigeneity and syngenicity of the detected biomarkers. In addition, molecular and isotopic analysis of hydrocarbons allows for the recognition of phototrophic activity from the prokaryotic and eukaryotic communities developed in this extreme alkaline lake in anoxic conditions. These unique results shed light on a key Period in the evolution of life on Earth in the particular region of Amane-n’Tourhart. The set of molecular and isotopic biomarkers detected in the Amane-n’Tourhart stromatolites supports the presence of some of the first complex organisms (i.e. fungi and early animals) and the relevance of the most prominent metabolism in present day biology (i.e. Calvin cycle), and expands the catalog of biomarkers preserved from that geological Period to reconstruct its paleobiology.

在埃迪卡拉纪（635-538.8 Ma），蓝藻群落和早期光合真核生物的光合作用促进了陆地大气的广泛氧化。在不同的陆地环境中，这类群落和活动的生物地球化学证据非常少。在这项工作中，我们在摩洛哥反阿特拉斯山脉埃迪卡拉纪火山碱性湖的叠层石中寻找脂质生物标志物及其碳比同位素组成。分子分析表明，Amane-n 'Tourhart叠层石中存在正构烷烃、类异戊二烯、藿烷和甾烷，并利用Calvin-Benson-Bassham循环测定了正构烷烃和类异戊二烯在自养生物范围内的δ13C值。污染控制和实验室测试的结果证明了检测到的生物标记物的原生性和同质性。此外，碳氢化合物的分子和同位素分析可以识别出在缺氧条件下在这个极端碱性湖泊中发育的原核和真核生物群落的光营养活性。这些独特的结果揭示了地球上生命进化的关键时期在阿曼内-恩图尔哈特的特定地区。在Amane-n 'Tourhart叠层石中检测到的一组分子和同位素生物标志物支持了一些最早的复杂生物（即真菌和早期动物）的存在，以及现代生物学中最突出的代谢（即卡尔文循环）的相关性，并扩展了该地质时期保存的生物标志物目录，以重建其古生物学。

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引用次数: 0

Long term evolution of deep banner banks offshore Brittany (France): paleo-coast line markers and interactions between hydrodynamics and seafloor morphology 法国布列塔尼近海深旗滩的长期演化：古海岸线标志和水动力与海底形态的相互作用

IF 8.9 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience frontiers

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2026.102250

Paul Daguinos , Pascal Le Roy , Gwenael Jouët , David Menier , Nicolas Le Dantec , Axel Ehrhold , Christophe Prunier , Pauline Dupont , Marcaurelio Franzetti

This study focusses on the development and evolution of a banner banks set located offshore the Britanny coast (Iroise Sea, France) using multibeam bathymetric data, high-resolution seismic data, and grab samples. It aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of environmental parameters underpinning the long-term evolution and preservation of these major morpho-sedimentary bedforms. These banks have developed on a highly dispersive tide-and-storm-dominated shelf. Despite their very contrasting morphologies, the base of each of them lies at a similar depth range (100 to 90 m). The presence of dunes superimposed on the banks suggests that they remained active until today excepting for the Armen bank. Five seismic units have been also distinguished within each bank, separated by pronounced erosional unconformities. The surfaces are interpreted as the product of the gradual flooding of the bedrock outcropping across the shelf that modified the prevailing tidal conditions and directions of sediment transport. It thus appears that correlation between sea-level rise, the opening of straits across the shelf and the intensification of tidal currents are the key parameters of the long-term sand bank evolution offshore Brittany. The stepped morphology of the bedrock also appears to be a crucial factor in the initiation of the bank and its lasting anchoring between external and internal shelf. The preservation of their original nucleus indeed attests to their low lateral migration. With the exception of the silico-clastic basal unit, the banks are biogenic and fed by a process of self-recycling the sand within the sedimentary cell controlling the preservation of the bank. This study sheds light on the mechanisms of the formation and the deep anchorage of these deep banner banks, as well as their inherent link. It also highlights the dynamic nature of these large deep bedforms that are sustained by a fossil sedimentary stock.

本研究利用多波束测深数据、高分辨率地震数据和抓拍样本，重点研究布列塔尼海岸（法国Iroise海）近海旗滩的发展和演变。它的目的是提供对这些主要形态-沉积层的长期演化和保存的环境参数的全面理解。这些河岸是在高度分散的潮汐和风暴主导的陆架上发展起来的。尽管它们的形态截然不同，但它们的底部都位于相似的深度范围（100至90米）。河岸上叠加的沙丘的存在表明，它们直到今天仍然活跃，除了阿门河岸。在每条河岸内还划分出5个地震单元，由明显的侵蚀不整合面分开。这些表面被解释为陆架上露出地面的基岩逐渐被淹没的产物，这改变了当时的潮汐条件和沉积物运输的方向。由此可见，海平面上升、跨陆架海峡的开放和潮流的强化之间的相关性是布列塔尼近海沙洲长期演化的关键参数。基岩的阶梯式形态似乎也是河岸形成及其在内外陆架之间持久锚固的关键因素。其原始细胞核的保存确实证明了它们的低横向迁移。除了硅碎屑基单元外，河岸是由生物形成的，并由沉积细胞内的沙子自我循环过程滋养，控制着河岸的保存。本研究揭示了这些深旗滩的形成机制和深锚，以及它们之间的内在联系。它还突出了这些由化石沉积群维持的大型深层河床的动态性质。

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引用次数: 0

Lithospheric thickness controls asymmetric mantle plume spreading and metallogenesis in the Tarim Large Igneous Province–Central Asian Orogenic Belt System 塔里木大火成岩省—中亚造山带体系岩石圈厚度控制着地幔柱不对称扩张和成矿作用

IF 8.9 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience frontiers

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2026.102249

Xiuhui An , Zhaochong Zhang , Hengxu Li , Mingde Lang , Ruixuan Zhang , Zhiguo Cheng

The dynamic interactions between mantle plumes and continental collision zones are still inadequately defined or poorly understood. Focusing on the Early Permian Tarim LIP and the adjacent Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB), this study employs a Random Forest–based tectonic affinity prediction model (98% accuracy) to quantitatively evaluate the relative contributions of distinct mantle components (subduction-modified, asthenospheric, and plume-related) in 461 basalt samples. Combined with lithospheric thickness reconstruction via Y/Yb ratios, we demonstrate that: (1) the influence of the Tarim mantle plume extended northward into the CAOB, but was deflected into an east–west trajectory upon encountering the thick lithosphere (>70 km) of the Yili Block; (2) within the orogen, ocean island basalt (OIB)-affinity anomalies (e.g., East Tianshan, Junggar) are spatially consistent with thin lithosphere zones (55–65 km), and clusters of Ni–Cu sulfide deposits; and (3) major trans-lithospheric faults served as preferential conduits for plume upwelling. These findings provide a “channel–barrier” model where lithospheric thickness variations control plume spreading asymmetry, with preexisting structural weaknesses regulating spatial distribution. This study establishes a methodological framework for plume identification and Ni–Cu sulfide exploration in analogous settings, with broad implications for deep Earth material cycles and lithosphere–mineralization interactions.

地幔柱和大陆碰撞带之间的动态相互作用仍然没有得到充分的定义或了解。以塔里木早二叠世LIP及邻近的中亚造山带（CAOB）为研究对象，采用基于随机森林（Random forest）的构造亲和预测模型（准确率98%），定量评价了461个玄武岩样品中不同地幔组分（俯冲修正、软流圈和羽流相关）的相对贡献。结合Y/Yb比值重建的岩石圈厚度表明：(1)塔里木地幔柱的影响向北延伸至CAOB，但在遇到伊力地块厚岩石圈（>70 km）后，地幔柱的影响转向了东西方向；(2)造山带内，洋岛玄武岩（OIB）亲和异常（如东天山、准噶尔）在空间上与薄岩石圈带（55 ~ 65 km）和镍铜硫化物矿床群相一致；(3)跨岩石圈大断裂为地幔柱上涌提供了有利通道。这些发现提供了一个“通道-屏障”模型，其中岩石圈厚度变化控制了烟羽扩散的不对称性，而先前存在的结构弱点调节了空间分布。本研究建立了类似背景下羽流识别和镍铜硫化物勘探的方法框架，对地球深部物质循环和岩石圈-成矿相互作用具有广泛的意义。

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引用次数: 0

Linking Gondwana inheritance to Alpine paleogeography in the Northern Dora-Maira Massif (Western Alps) 西阿尔卑斯多拉-迈拉地块北部冈瓦纳传承与高山古地理的联系

IF 8.9 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience frontiers

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102245

Gianni Balestro , Matthieu Roà , Carlo Bertok , Marco Gattiglio , Stefano Ghignone , Chiara Groppo , Valby van Schijndel , Andrea Festa

Inherited structures in rifted continental margins strongly influence the architecture and evolution of collisional orogens. The northern Dora-Maira Massif in the Western Alps (NW Italy) preserves records of such inheritances, capturing the transition from Gondwana inheritance to Alpine convergence. New lithostratigraphic and structural data, together with U–Pb zircon dating, reveal a long-lasting tectonostratigraphic and/or magmatic evolution during (i) pre-Permian, (ii) Permian, (iii) Triassic and (iv) Jurassic time intervals. The heterogeneous Paleozoic basement consists of pre-Variscan micaschist and metabasite, and was intruded by Permian igneous bodies now corresponding to the Borgone metagranite and Luserna augen gneiss. The basement was later overlain by a Mesozoic cover made up of Lower Triassic siliciclastic sediments, a Middle to Upper Triassic carbonate platform and Lower to Middle Jurassic syn-rift deposits linked to the opening of the Ligurian–Piedmont Ocean Basin. Our results highlight that the Dora-Maira Massif was located within a transitional paleogeographic domain, emphasizing the role of pre-rift architecture in governing margin segmentation. Successive cycles of sedimentation, magmatism, and rifting created structural and rheological heterogeneities that may have localized strain during the Cenozoic Alpine-related overprinting. The Dora-Maira case illustrates that deep-time inherited structures and tectonostratigraphic settings continue to influence rifting, subduction, and collision, offering a broader framework for understanding the dynamics of orogens worldwide.

裂陷大陆边缘的继承构造强烈地影响着碰撞造山带的构造和演化。西阿尔卑斯山（意大利西北部）北部的多拉-迈拉山脉保存了这种遗产的记录，捕捉了从冈瓦纳继承到阿尔卑斯融合的过渡。新的岩石地层和构造资料，结合U-Pb锆石定年，揭示了(i)前二叠世，（ii）二叠纪，（iii）三叠纪和（iv）侏罗纪时期的漫长构造地层和/或岩浆演化。非均质古生代基底由前variscan期云母片岩和变质岩组成，并被二叠系火成岩侵入，现在对应于Borgone变质岩和Luserna奥根片麻岩。基底后来被由下三叠统硅屑沉积、中上三叠统碳酸盐岩台地和下至中侏罗统同裂谷沉积组成的中生代盖层覆盖，这些同裂谷沉积与利古里亚-山前洋盆地的张开有关。研究结果表明，多拉-迈拉地块位于一个过渡性古地理域中，强调了裂谷前构造在控制边缘分割中的作用。沉积作用、岩浆作用和裂谷作用的连续旋回产生了构造和流变非均质性，这些非均质性可能在新生代阿尔卑斯相关的叠印过程中产生了局部应变。Dora-Maira案例表明，深时间继承的构造和构造地层环境继续影响着裂谷、俯冲和碰撞，为理解世界范围内造山带的动力学提供了更广泛的框架。

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引用次数: 0

Data-driven apparent earth pressure prediction in braced excavations in stratified soft-stiff clay deposits 数据驱动的层状软硬粘土层支撑开挖视土压力预测

IF 8.9 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience frontiers

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102246

Runhong Zhang , Haoran Chang , Anthony Teck Chee Goh , Weixin Sun

The analysis of apparent earth pressure (AEP) in braced excavations in soft clay environments demands advanced methodologies to address complex soil-structure interactions and nonlinear parameter interdependencies. Traditional empirical approaches often oversimplify these critical factors, compromising design reliability. This study introduces a data-driven framework that merges machine learning (ML) techniques with finite element (FE) modeling to enhance AEP prediction and interpretation. A novel Dynamic Time Warping (DTW)-based KMeans clustering algorithm is employed to classify AEP distributions, validated against FE simulations and field-monitored data. By integrating FE modeling with data-driven clustering, the framework generates refined apparent pressure diagrams (APDs) tailored to T_sc-specific conditions, outperforming conventional Terzaghi-Peck and CIRIA diagrams. Results demonstrate that ML models reduce prediction errors compared to empirical approaches. This work underscores the transformative potential of ML in advancing geotechnical engineering, offering a paradigm for robust excavation design in heterogeneous soil strata.

软粘土环境下支撑开挖的视土压力分析需要先进的方法来处理复杂的土-结构相互作用和非线性参数相互依赖关系。传统的经验方法往往过于简化这些关键因素，损害了设计的可靠性。本研究引入了一个数据驱动的框架，该框架将机器学习（ML）技术与有限元（FE）建模相结合，以增强AEP的预测和解释。采用一种新的基于动态时间扭曲（DTW）的KMeans聚类算法对AEP分布进行分类，并通过FE模拟和现场监测数据进行验证。通过将有限元建模与数据驱动的聚类相结合，该框架生成了针对tsc特定条件量身定制的精细表观压力图（apd），优于传统的Terzaghi-Peck图和CIRIA图。结果表明，与经验方法相比，机器学习模型减少了预测误差。这项工作强调了机器学习在推进岩土工程方面的变革潜力，为异质土壤地层的稳健挖掘设计提供了范例。

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引用次数: 0

Natural resource exploitation and productive capacity as drivers of ecological footprint: The roles of technology and economic policy uncertainty 自然资源开发和生产能力作为生态足迹的驱动因素：技术和经济政策不确定性的作用

IF 8.9 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience frontiers

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2026.102247

Yi Wang, Guang Yuan

Natural resource exploitation—particularly the extraction of minerals and related primary commodities—continues to shape patterns of economic expansion, structural transformation, and environmental strain across developing regions. Understanding how these resource dynamics interact with broader economic structures and institutional conditions is crucial for designing sustainable development pathways. In this context, productive capacity, economic policy uncertainty, and ecological pressure emerge as central dimensions through which the environmental consequences of development can be assessed. This study investigates the impact of the productive capacity index and economic policy uncertainty on the ecological footprint of 33 Asian developing countries from 2000 to 2022, explicitly considering mineral resource dependence, foreign direct investment, and economic growth as control variables. Using advanced econometric techniques—including slope heterogeneity diagnostics, the Westerlund cointegration test, Moment Quantile Regression (MMQR), and Kernel-Based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS)—the analysis reveals that productive capacity, policy uncertainty, and natural resources (including minerals) are negatively associated with the ecological footprint, suggesting that stronger institutional and productive structures mitigate environmental pressures. By contrast, economic growth and foreign direct investment are positively related to ecological footprint, highlighting the environmental trade-offs of rapid expansion and external capital flows. The findings underscore the need for sustainable mineral resource management and integrated policy frameworks that align productive capacity with environmental stewardship. The study concludes that resource-rich economies must balance mineral exploitation with long-term energy and environmental strategies, ensuring that productivity gains do not come at the cost of ecological degradation.

自然资源开发——尤其是矿产和相关初级商品的开采——继续影响着发展中地区的经济扩张、结构转型和环境压力。了解这些资源动态如何与更广泛的经济结构和体制条件相互作用，对于设计可持续发展途径至关重要。在这种情况下，生产能力、经济政策的不确定性和生态压力成为可以评估发展的环境后果的中心方面。本文以矿产资源依存度、外商直接投资和经济增长为控制变量，考察了2000 - 2022年亚洲33个发展中国家的生产能力指数和经济政策不确定性对生态足迹的影响。利用先进的计量经济学技术——包括斜坡异质性诊断、Westerlund协整检验、矩分位数回归（MMQR）和基于核的正则化最小二乘（KRLS）——分析表明，生产能力、政策不确定性和自然资源（包括矿物）与生态足迹呈负相关，这表明更强的制度和生产结构减轻了环境压力。相比之下，经济增长和外国直接投资与生态足迹呈正相关，突出了快速扩张和外部资本流动的环境权衡。调查结果强调需要可持续的矿物资源管理和使生产能力与环境管理相结合的综合政策框架。该研究的结论是，资源丰富的经济体必须在矿产开采与长期能源和环境战略之间取得平衡，确保生产力的提高不会以生态退化为代价。

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引用次数: 0

XAI-driven flood risk assessment: Integrating machine learning and hydrological model 基于人工智能的洪水风险评估：整合机器学习和水文模型

IF 8.9 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience frontiers

Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102244

Meihong Ma , Ting Wang , Jianhua Yang , Zhuoran Chen , Jinqi Wang , Ronghua Liu , Xiaoyi Miao

Increasingly frequent extreme climate events have intensified urban flood risks, underscoring the urgent need for accurate, interpretable assessment methodologies. This study establishes an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) framework for flood risk assessment in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), integrating the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model with Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT). To resolve model opacity, Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) quantifies the contributions of critical disaster-inducing indicators. The framework achieves over 91% predictive accuracy, revealing a 1.33% expansion of very high-risk zones and a 3.80% increase in high-risk areas under the 100-year flood scenario, with the most affected cities including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, and Foshan. LIME-based interpretability analysis under this scenario underscores the dominant influence of hydrological and topographic variables, with FD (flood depth), SD (submerge duration), and DEM (Digital Elevation Model) collectively contributing over 60% of the total explanatory contribution. This XAI approach significantly enhances flood risk prediction precision, delivering actionable insights for evidence-based resilience planning across the GBA.

日益频繁的极端气候事件加剧了城市洪水风险，因此迫切需要准确、可解释的评估方法。本研究将LISFLOOD-FP水动力模型与梯度提升决策树（GBDT）相结合，建立了粤港澳大湾区洪水风险评估的可解释人工智能（XAI）框架。为了解决模型的不透明性，局部可解释模型不可知解释（LIME）量化了关键诱发灾害指标的贡献。该框架的预测准确率超过91%，在百年一遇洪水情景下，非常高风险区域扩大1.33%，高风险区域增加3.80%，受影响最严重的城市包括广州、深圳、珠海和佛山。在这种情景下，基于lime的可解释性分析强调了水文和地形变量的主导影响，FD（洪水深度）、SD（淹没持续时间）和DEM（数字高程模型）共同贡献了超过60%的总解释贡献。这种XAI方法显著提高了洪水风险预测的精度，为整个大湾区的循证韧性规划提供了可操作的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Microstructure-driven prediction of undrained shear strength of deep-sea sediments: A multivariate approach bridging physical–mechanical properties 深海沉积物不排水剪切强度的微观结构驱动预测：一种连接物理-力学特性的多元方法

IF 8.9 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience frontiers

Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102243

Yu-Min Shi , Fu-Ping Gao , Ning Wang , Wen-Gang Qi , Jian-Tao Liu , Jun-Qin Wang

An innovative framework for correlating physical–mechanical properties of deep-sea sediments is established through a comprehensive database integrating microstructural, mineralogical, and geotechnical data from over 300 samples. Advanced cold field emission SEM analyses reveal unique flocculated-laminated microstructures dominated by organic components and smectite-rich clay minerals. Microstructural parameters and relationships between macroscopic and microscopic characteristics are further examined, which enhances the fundamental understanding of the correlations between physical and mechanical properties. Statistical analyses demonstrate strong interdependencies among water content, buoyant unit weight, and void ratio, confirming their equivalence as physical descriptors. Crucially, conventional terrestrial soil models show limited applicability for predicting undrained shear strength in deep-sea environments, particularly underestimating strength parameters by neglecting sediment sensitivity and liquidity index. Through multiple nonlinear regression and the construction of multivariate distribution, predictive models are developed incorporating buoyant unit weight, liquidity index, and sensitivity as key governing factors, achieving superior accuracy compared to existing methods. This investigation advances the understanding of physical–mechanical properties of deep-sea sediments, thus providing critical insights for assessing subsea geo-hazards.

通过整合来自300多个样品的微观结构、矿物学和岩土数据的综合数据库，建立了一个创新的深海沉积物物理力学特性关联框架。先进的冷场发射SEM分析揭示了独特的絮凝层状微观结构，主要由有机成分和富蒙脱石粘土矿物组成。进一步研究了微观结构参数以及宏观和微观特征之间的关系，从而增强了对物理和力学性能之间相关性的基本理解。统计分析表明，含水量、浮力单位重量和空隙比之间存在很强的相互依赖性，证实了它们作为物理描述符的等效性。重要的是，传统的陆地土壤模型在预测深海环境不排水剪切强度方面适用性有限，特别是由于忽略了沉积物敏感性和流动性指数而低估了强度参数。通过多元非线性回归和多元分布的构建，建立了以浮力单位重量、流动性指数和灵敏度为主要控制因素的预测模型，与现有方法相比，预测精度更高。这项研究促进了对深海沉积物物理力学特性的理解，从而为评估海底地质灾害提供了重要的见解。

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