The increasing frequency of extreme cold waves exacerbates wind power uncertainty, intensifying the trade-off between robustness and economy in high wind penetration power systems. To address the problem, this paper proposes a DRO method based on distributionally robust Bayesian inference (DRBI). An ambiguity set defined by the Wasserstein metric is first constructed utilising historical wind data. Secondly, the likelihood distribution of wind power output is predicted using an XGB-transformer model. To accurately characterise wind power output during cold waves, a posterior distribution is then constructed using the proposed DRBI framework. Next, a DRO dispatch model is constructed to ensure operational robustness while minimising total operating cost. Constraints include power balance, wind power uncertainty and system security requirements. The model is solved based on strong duality theory. Finally, the model is validated on a regional 30-bus system and a modified IEEE 118-bus system. Experimental results show that, compared to stochastic optimisation and robust optimisation models, the proposed model effectively balances robustness and economy under cold waves. Besides, accounting for wind power uncertainty, experimental results suggest maintaining wind power penetration at 10–20%. Moreover, the economic efficiency of the optimal schedule can be further improved by adjusting the sample size of cold-wave scenarios.
{"title":"Distributionally Robust Optimization Economic Dispatch for Power Systems With High Wind Penetration Under Extreme Cold Waves","authors":"Weixin Yang, Hongshan Zhao, Shiyu Lin, Heyang Zhou","doi":"10.1049/gtd2.70224","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1049/gtd2.70224","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The increasing frequency of extreme cold waves exacerbates wind power uncertainty, intensifying the trade-off between robustness and economy in high wind penetration power systems. To address the problem, this paper proposes a DRO method based on distributionally robust Bayesian inference (DRBI). An ambiguity set defined by the Wasserstein metric is first constructed utilising historical wind data. Secondly, the likelihood distribution of wind power output is predicted using an XGB-transformer model. To accurately characterise wind power output during cold waves, a posterior distribution is then constructed using the proposed DRBI framework. Next, a DRO dispatch model is constructed to ensure operational robustness while minimising total operating cost. Constraints include power balance, wind power uncertainty and system security requirements. The model is solved based on strong duality theory. Finally, the model is validated on a regional 30-bus system and a modified IEEE 118-bus system. Experimental results show that, compared to stochastic optimisation and robust optimisation models, the proposed model effectively balances robustness and economy under cold waves. Besides, accounting for wind power uncertainty, experimental results suggest maintaining wind power penetration at 10–20%. Moreover, the economic efficiency of the optimal schedule can be further improved by adjusting the sample size of cold-wave scenarios.</p>","PeriodicalId":13261,"journal":{"name":"Iet Generation Transmission & Distribution","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1049/gtd2.70224","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145887753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The ever-increasing demand for electricity necessitates constant innovation in the electric utility sector. In this regard, high surge impedance loading (HSIL) transmission lines can be a promising technology. While conventional HSIL designs rely on more subconductors located symmetrically on circular bundles with a larger radius, unconventional HSIL lines can achieve even more natural power by optimally positioning subconductors in space. This paper focuses on determining the optimal location and number of shield wires for a newly designed 500 kV unconventional HSIL line, whose surge impedance is reduced to 141.5