International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第10页

Effects of wire rope isolators on seismic life-cycle cost of UHV bypass switch 钢丝绳隔离器对超高压旁路开关抗震寿命周期成本的影响

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104917

Chang He , Kunning He , Liqiang Jiang , Qiang Xie , Zhenyu Yang

The seismic isolation devices reduce the seismic vulnerability of the electrical equipment. Accurately assessing the seismic life-cycle cost (SLCC) of the electrical equipment is beneficial in guiding the design and enhancing the seismic resilience of electrical substations and converter stations. To evaluate the effects of the isolator devices on the seismic life-cycle cost of electrical equipment, a SLCC evaluation model was proposed in this study, and the evaluation was conducted on an ultra-high voltage (UHV) bypass switch (BPS) with wire rope isolators (WRI). The model takes into account equipment purchase, maintenance, transportation and installation costs and indirect losses caused by power outages. Afterward, the SLCC and break-even time of the UHV BPS with and without WRIs in different regions were analyzed. The results indicate that beyond the break-even time, the BPS with WRIs becomes more economically viable. Moreover, its economic viability increases as the service life extends. Therefore, in high seismic cost risk areas, it is recommended to adopt seismic isolation devices to ensure the secure and economically efficient operation of electrical equipment.

地震隔离装置可降低电气设备的地震脆弱性。准确评估电气设备的地震寿命周期成本（SLCC）有利于指导变电站和换流站的设计并提高其抗震能力。为了评估隔震装置对电气设备抗震寿命周期成本的影响，本研究提出了一个 SLCC 评估模型，并对带有钢丝绳隔震装置（WRI）的超高压旁路开关（BPS）进行了评估。该模型考虑了设备采购、维护、运输和安装成本以及停电造成的间接损失。随后，分析了不同地区带或不带钢丝绳隔离器的特高压旁路开关（BPS）的 SLCC 和盈亏平衡时间。结果表明，超过盈亏平衡时间后，带 WRI 的 BPS 在经济上更加可行。此外，随着服务寿命的延长，其经济可行性也会增加。因此，在地震成本高风险地区，建议采用地震隔离装置，以确保电气设备的安全和经济高效运行。

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引用次数: 0

Risk analysis of underground debris flows in mines based on a coupled weighted Bayesian network 基于耦合加权贝叶斯网络的矿井地下泥石流风险分析

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104922

Jing Zhang , Haiyong Cheng , Shunchuan Wu , Guanghua Wu , Rujun Tuo , Weihua Liu , Xinglong Feng , Zhengrong Li

Mines mined by the natural caving method are prone to underground debris flow disasters, resulting in mud gushing blocking roadways, equipment damage and even casualties, which seriously affect the safe operation of mines. To carry out a risk analysis of underground debris flows in mines, quantify the interactions among risk factors in the process of disasters, and identify the main disaster-causing paths, DEMATEL-ISM was used to analyze 18 risk factors related to material sources, geology, water sources and processes. A multilevel network structure model was constructed, and the model was mapped to a Bayesian network (BN). Based on the N-K model, the degree of risk coupling was calculated, the nodes in the BN were coupled and weighted, and diagnostic reasoning for underground debris flows was realized based on posterior probability. The results showed that the risk of debris flow increases with increasing coupling factor. The factors of water source, geology and ore drawing ranked at the top in terms of the probability change rate of the BN nodes, and a main disaster-causing path was obtained by diagnostic reasoning, which provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of underground debris flow prevention and control measures.

采用自然崩落法开采的矿井容易发生井下泥石流灾害，造成涌泥堵塞巷道、设备损坏甚至人员伤亡，严重影响矿井安全生产。为了对矿山井下泥石流灾害进行风险分析，量化灾害发生过程中各风险因素之间的相互作用，明确主要致灾路径，本文采用 DEMATEL-ISM 分析方法，分析了与物源、地质、水源、工艺等相关的 18 个风险因素。构建了多层次网络结构模型，并将该模型映射到贝叶斯网络（BN）。在 N-K 模型的基础上，计算了风险耦合度，对 BN 中的节点进行耦合和加权，并根据后验概率实现了地下泥石流的诊断推理。结果表明，泥石流风险随着耦合系数的增加而增加。水源、地质、拉矿等因素在 BN 节点概率变化率中排名靠前，通过诊断推理得到了主要致灾路径，为制定地下泥石流防治措施提供了理论依据。

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引用次数: 0

A methodology for assessing multiple hazards applied to Sweden 适用于瑞典的多重危害评估方法

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104934

Johan Björck , Margaret McNamee , Jonathan Wahlqvist , Magnus Larson , Fainaz Inamdeen

Despite extensive efforts through various international initiatives to reduce global warming, it has been determined that human induced climate change is here, that the present scale of disruption of the climate is unprecedented and will continue. Increasing weather volatility can be expected, which will most likely increase exposure to weather related hazards, e.g. wildfires, flooding. The aim of this paper is to present an index-based multi-hazard risk assessment method to assess wildfires and flooding hazard for two municipalities within Sweden. The method is designed to be used by the Fire and Rescue Service (FRS) for planning purposes and can be modified to take the local FRS's capabilities and local conditions into account, thereby improving hazard preparedness at a local level. The analysis presented indicates that, while the frequency of multi-hazard overlap from wildfires and flooding is greatest in more northern parts of Sweden, the method provides important information even when applied to areas with limited overlap. A variation of the hazard assessment using a box kernel sliding window was studied to investigate the sensitivity of the model for rapid variations of an individual hazard level. Given that resource needs will typically spread over several days for large scale natural hazards, the box kernel approach is valuable in helping to identify a span of days when resources associated with incident response might be needed. In the future, the model should be expanded to include additional single hazards, the application to additional municipalities and extension to FRS planning exercises for natural hazards.

尽管通过各种国际倡议为减少全球变暖做出了广泛努力，但已经确定人类引起的气候变化已经到来，目前对气候的破坏程度是前所未有的，并将持续下去。天气的不稳定性预计会越来越大，这很可能会增加与天气相关的危险，如野火、洪水。本文旨在介绍一种基于指数的多灾害风险评估方法，用于评估瑞典两个城市的野火和洪水灾害。该方法旨在供消防和救援服务部门（FRS）用于规划目的，并可根据当地消防和救援服务部门的能力和当地条件进行修改，从而提高地方一级的灾害防备能力。所做的分析表明，虽然瑞典北部地区野火和洪水造成的多种危害重叠的频率最高，但即使在重叠程度有限的地区，该方法也能提供重要信息。研究了使用盒核滑动窗口进行危害评估的变体，以调查模型对单个危害等级快速变化的敏感性。鉴于大规模自然灾害的资源需求通常会持续数天，箱核方法在帮助确定可能需要与事件响应相关的资源的天数跨度方面非常有价值。未来，该模型应扩展到更多的单一灾害，应用于更多的城市，并扩展到自然灾害的 FRS 规划工作中。

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引用次数: 0

Post-disaster housing recovery estimation: Data and lessons learned from the 2017 Tubbs and 2018 Camp Fires 灾后住房恢复估算：2017 年塔布斯大火和 2018 年坎普大火的数据和经验教训

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104912

Jeonghyun Lee , Rodrigo Costa , Jack W. Baker

Post-wildfire housing recovery is a complex process for which systematically collected data remains scarce. Consequently, our ability to anticipate obstacles and plan for housing recovery from future events is limited. This study leverages housing permit datasets collected in Santa Rosa and Unincorporated Sonoma County, impacted by the 2017 Tubbs Fire, and Paradise, impacted by the 2018 Camp Fire. Permit and tax assessor data are combined to gain insights into the recovery processes for these communities. Although the percentage of rebuilt destroyed homes varies significantly between regions, the peak construction demand occurs around 1.5 years after each wildfire, with a substantial decline in the reconstruction rate after 2.5 years. Moreover, the pace of transition from permit application to reconstruction completion is similar across all three regions. Using this finding, we propose a methodology to forecast the number of parcels rebuilt per unit of time based on observations from prior events. A proof-of-concept application of the proposed methodology indicates that it estimates long-term housing recovery patterns based on permit application data collected within one year of the event. These findings indicate that a longitudinal housing recovery data database would help forecast housing recovery from future disasters by providing a source for early empirical validation of predictive models.

野火后的住房恢复是一个复杂的过程，系统收集的数据仍然很少。因此，我们预测未来事件中住房恢复的障碍并制定计划的能力有限。本研究利用了在受 2017 年 Tubbs 大火影响的圣塔罗莎和未并入的索诺玛县以及受 2018 年 Camp 大火影响的天堂镇收集的住房许可数据集。许可证和税务评估师数据相结合，有助于深入了解这些社区的恢复过程。虽然各地区重建的被毁房屋比例差异很大，但每次野火后 1.5 年左右都会出现建筑需求高峰，2.5 年后重建率会大幅下降。此外，从申请许可到重建完成的过渡速度在所有三个地区都相似。利用这一发现，我们提出了一种方法，根据以前事件的观测结果预测单位时间内重建的地块数量。所提方法的概念验证应用表明，它可以根据事件发生后一年内收集的许可证申请数据估算出长期的房屋恢复模式。这些研究结果表明，纵向住房恢复数据数据库将有助于预测未来灾害后的住房恢复情况，为预测模型提供早期经验验证来源。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of drought and climate change on economy, environment and human health in southern Iran: A qualitative study 干旱和气候变化对伊朗南部经济、环境和人类健康的影响：定性研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104937

Neda Malek Mohammadi , Narges Khanjani , Bahram Bakhtiari , Yunes Jahani

Drought and climate change are one of the most important environmental health challenges of the current century. It has been predicted that the occurrence of drought, its intensity, and its adverse effects on the environment, human health, societies, and economy will increase in the coming decades. This qualitative content analysis study aimed to explore the impact of drought on the lives of people living in the south of Iran. Data were collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews with farmers, urban and rural officials, and physicians. A total of 25 interviews were conducted. All interviews were recorded and then transcribed. Data were analyzed using MAXQDA version 18. The concepts raised by interviewees regarding the consequences of drought were categorized into four themes, including economic consequences, environmental hazards, health consequences, and adaptation options; and most of these consequences were inter-related. Participants believed that drought has affected the soil, environment, ecosystem, and the quality and quantity of water, and this can lead to extensive effects on humans’ physical, mental, and community wellbeing. Drought can also cause adverse economic effects, which can further intensify its adverse effects. It seems like the adverse effects of drought in Iran are severe and destructive, and this is due to the mismanagement of water and environmental resources and other socio-economic problems. Fundamental changes in the management of water and environmental resources are necessary.

干旱和气候变化是本世纪最重要的环境健康挑战之一。据预测，未来几十年，干旱的发生率、强度及其对环境、人类健康、社会和经济的不利影响都将增加。本定性内容分析研究旨在探讨干旱对伊朗南部居民生活的影响。通过对农民、城乡官员和医生进行深入的半结构化访谈收集数据。共进行了 25 次访谈。所有访谈都进行了录音，然后转录。数据使用 MAXQDA 第 18 版进行分析。受访者就干旱后果提出的概念分为四个主题，包括经济后果、环境危害、健康后果和适应方案；这些后果大多相互关联。受访者认为，干旱影响了土壤、环境、生态系统以及水的质量和数量，会对人类的身体、精神和社区福祉造成广泛影响。干旱还会对经济造成不利影响，从而进一步加剧其不利影响。在伊朗，干旱的不利影响似乎是严重和破坏性的，这是由于水和环境资源管理不善以及其他社会经济问题造成的。必须从根本上改变水资源和环境资源的管理。

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引用次数: 0

Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to Natech accident triggered by earthquakes in a liquor storage tank area 多米诺效应定量风险评估在白酒储罐区地震引发的 Natech 事故中的应用

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104957

Tianming Ma , Jiajun Zou , Yuan He , Hong Zhao , Yanyu Chu , Dongyao Zhang , Chuyuan Huang

Damage to industrial equipment caused by earthquakes is a typical Natech accident. Earthquake damage may cause tank failures and trigger accidental releases of hazardous substances, even a series of fires and explosions, forming a natural hazard-induced domino chain (NHDC), which poses a serious threat to the processing industry. In this study, a whole-process quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methodology for earthquake-induced domino accident chains is proposed. In the framework of QRA, specific probit models are used to quantify the damage of earthquakes and to assess the probability of storage tank failure. Besides, pool fires following the leakage of the failed tanks were considered to be the consequence of the earthquake Natech accident. The Mudan thermal radiation model and the threshold model were used to identify the propagation paths of domino effects. Case studies were carried out to investigate the dynamic evolution of fire-related domino effects in different credible accident scenarios, including multiple initial accidents co-occurring. The results show that the combination of multiple initial accident scenarios takes less time to complete domino effect escalation of the overall scenario than a single initial accident scenario and will significantly increase the regional risk indices.

地震造成的工业设备损坏是典型的内特奇事故。地震破坏可能导致储罐故障，引发危险物质的意外释放，甚至引发一系列火灾和爆炸，形成自然灾害诱发的多米诺骨牌连锁事故（NHDC），对加工业构成严重威胁。本研究提出了地震诱发多米诺骨牌事故链的全过程定量风险评估（QRA）方法。在定量风险评估的框架内，使用特定的概率模型来量化地震的破坏程度，并评估储罐失效的概率。此外，失效储罐泄漏后的水池火灾也被视为地震 Natech 事故的后果。使用 Mudan 热辐射模型和阈值模型来确定多米诺骨牌效应的传播路径。进行了案例研究，以调查在不同可信事故情景下与火灾相关的多米诺效应的动态演变，包括多个初始事故同时发生。结果表明，与单一初始事故情景相比，多个初始事故情景组合完成整体情景多米诺效应升级所需的时间更短，并将显著增加区域风险指数。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing and mitigating dwelling collapse risk due to extreme precipitation: A comprehensive study using CNN-RF and GeoDetector 评估和减轻极端降水导致的住宅倒塌风险：使用 CNN-RF 和 GeoDetector 的综合研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104918

Yinan Wang , Juan Nie , Zhenxiang Xing , Zhenbo Wang , Chengdong Xu , Heng Li

Dragon boat rain, the most common extreme precipitation form in South China from May to June with more similar spatial distribution, caused serious loss of people's lives and property. The dwelling collapse is one of the main losses. Previous studies have paid little attention to the dwelling collapse risk caused by dragon boat rain (DCRDBR), the coupling model with CNN and RF applied to its assessment, and the influence of the precipitation process and interaction of natural and social factors on it. To fill these gaps, the CNN-RF was used to calculate the DCRDBR and the DCRDBR map was drawn. The Geodetctor was used to identify the main influencing factors and influencing factor interactions of DCRDBR, due to the spatial stratified heterogeneity of DCRDBR and the ability to obtain the determinant power of single factor and factor interaction. The results show that the F1 score and the AUC value of CNN-RF are 0.96 and 0.81, respectively. The spatial distribution of DCRDBR obtained by CNN-RF is high in the northeast and low in the southwest Guangdong Province. The total precipitation has the strongest determinant power (q = 0.54) followed by Slope (q = 0.52). The average determinant power of factors describing the precipitation process is 0.25. The combination of total precipitation and GDP/capita has the strongest determinant power of all combinations of natural and socio-economic factors (q = 0.72) followed by the total precipitation and ratio of urban population (q = 0.71). This study demonstrates the ability of CNN-RF applied to the DCRDBR assessment due to the integration of feature extraction and anti-overfitting ability, and identifies the influence of precipitation processes and the interaction of natural and socio-economic factors on the DCRDBR. It provides a solid scientific basis for crafting strategies to mitigate the impact of dragon boat rain and is conducive to the city's sustainable development.

龙舟雨是华南地区 5 月至 6 月最常见的极端降水形式，空间分布较为相似，给人民生命财产造成了严重损失。住宅倒塌是主要损失之一。以往的研究很少关注龙舟雨（DCRDBR）导致的民房倒塌风险、应用 CNN 和 RF 耦合模型对其进行评估，以及降水过程和自然与社会因素相互作用对其的影响。为了填补这些空白，利用 CNN-RF 计算了龙舟雨风险，并绘制了龙舟雨风险地图。由于 DCRDBR 的空间分层异质性，以及能够获得单因素和因素交互作用的决定力，因此使用 Geodetctor 确定了 DCRDBR 的主要影响因素和影响因素交互作用。结果表明，CNN-RF 的 F1 得分和 AUC 值分别为 0.96 和 0.81。CNN-RF 得到的 DCRDBR 空间分布在广东省东北部较高，西南部较低。总降水量的决定力最强（q = 0.54），其次是坡度（q = 0.52）。描述降水过程的因子的平均决定力为 0.25。在所有自然和社会经济因素组合中，总降水量和人均国内生产总值的组合具有最强的决定力（q = 0.72），其次是总降水量和城市人口比例（q = 0.71）。本研究证明了 CNN-RF 在 DCRDBR 评估中的应用能力，它集特征提取和抗过拟合能力于一体，识别了降水过程以及自然和社会经济因素的相互作用对 DCRDBR 的影响。它为制定减轻龙舟雨影响的策略提供了坚实的科学依据，有利于城市的可持续发展。

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引用次数: 0

Unraveling myths: Assessing beliefs in disaster management misconceptions among first responders and the general public 揭开神话：评估急救人员和公众对灾害管理误解的看法

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104965

A. Alkalai Tavori , B. Adini

Though studies of various global disasters highlighted predictable human behavior, a gap is noted between common perceptions, including those of professionals, and actual responses. Misconceptions are widespread and negatively impact disaster response. First responders play a crucial role in disaster management, and their decisions are influenced by their assessment of public behavior during disasters. Therefore, understanding prevalent beliefs among first responders is of great importance.

The aim of the study was to examine the extent of misconceptions among first responders and the public regarding behavior during disasters. The cross-sectional study was conducted using a structured quantitative questionnaire that included 25 statements, of which 19 were misconceptions. Respondents included >500 first responders (police officers, emergency medical services’ providers, and firefighters) and individuals from the public.

The findings showed that first responders believe in some misconceptions to a greater extent than the general public, such as their belief that panic, mass evacuation, and public disorder are characteristic behaviors during disasters.

As first responders are required to demonstrate expertise in predicting human behavior during disasters, the findings demonstrate a substantial gap in their knowledge and beliefs. The research underscores the need for developing mechanisms to reduce misconceptions and enhance skills in disaster management.

尽管对各种全球性灾害的研究强调了人类行为的可预测性，但人们注意到，包括专业人士在内的普遍看法与实际应对措施之间存在差距。误解普遍存在，对救灾工作产生了负面影响。第一响应人员在灾害管理中发挥着至关重要的作用，他们对灾害期间公众行为的评估影响着他们的决策。因此，了解第一响应人员的普遍观念非常重要。本研究旨在考察第一响应人员和公众对灾害期间行为的误解程度。这项横向研究采用了结构化定量问卷，包括 25 个陈述，其中 19 个是误解。研究结果表明，与普通公众相比，急救人员更相信一些错误观念，例如他们认为恐慌、大规模疏散和公共秩序混乱是灾害期间的特征行为。这项研究强调，有必要建立相关机制，以减少误解并提高灾害管理技能。

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引用次数: 0

Coastal infrastructure typology and people's preference-based grey-green-hybrid infrastructure classifications using a latent class model: A case study of Japan 利用潜类模型对沿海基础设施类型和基于人们偏好的灰绿混合型基础设施进行分类：日本案例研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104992

Yui Omori , Koichi Kuriyama , Takahiro Tsuge , Ayumi Onuma , Yasushi Shoji

Following the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan, multiple lines of defence applying various approaches to structural/non-structural coastal defence has gained momentum. These changes have led to accelerate the development of hybrid infrastructure, which combines artificial and natural features, to provide essential defense functions while also harnessing the benefits of ecosystem services, including recreation and biodiversity conservation in Japan. However, the higher the number of services and stakeholder groups targeted, the lower is the capacity to maximise the delivery of each service and simultaneously fulfil the specific needs of each stakeholder group. This study conducted an online survey across Japan and obtained 861 valid responses for the analysis, elucidating the optimal balance between artificial and natural feature using a latent class model. Additionally, we examined whether the anticipated risk of the Nankai Trough earthquake and tsunami influenced perceptions of coastal infrastructure. The results showed that 81.7 % of our respondents favoured hybrid infrastructure, which can be classified into five distinct types with varying levels of grey and natural components. Furthermore, individuals who undertook personal tsunami preparedness measures, such as reviewing hazard maps and participating in evacuation drills, were more inclined to prefer hybrid infrastructure. In contrast, those who were less prepared for tsunamis or took no action tended to lean towards the exclusive installation of either grey or natural infrastructure. There was no statistically significant difference in Nankai Trough tsunami-prone area in preferable coastal infrastructure types; however, it highlighted the potential needs and importance for hybrid infrastructure to be multi-objective.

2011 年日本东北地区发生地震和海啸后，采用各种方法进行结构性/非结构性海岸防御的多道防线获得了发展势头。这些变化促使日本加快发展混合基础设施，将人工和自然特征相结合，在提供基本防御功能的同时，还利用生态系统服务的益处，包括娱乐和生物多样性保护。然而，针对的服务和利益相关群体数量越多，最大限度地提供每项服务并同时满足每个利益相关群体特定需求的能力就越低。本研究在日本全国范围内开展了一项在线调查，获得了 861 份有效回复以供分析，并利用潜类模型阐明了人工特征与自然特征之间的最佳平衡。此外，我们还研究了南海槽地震和海啸的预期风险是否会影响人们对沿海基础设施的看法。结果表明，81.7% 的受访者青睐混合型基础设施，这些基础设施可分为五种不同类型，其中灰色和自然成分的程度各不相同。此外，采取个人海啸防范措施（如查看灾害地图和参加疏散演习）的人更倾向于选择混合型基础设施。相反，那些对海啸准备不足或没有采取任何行动的人则倾向于只安装灰色或天然基础设施。在统计上，南海海槽海啸易发地区对沿海基础设施类型的偏好没有显著差异；但是，这突显了混合基础设施具有多目标性的潜在需求和重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Beliefs that predict support for needs-based disaster aid distribution 预测支持按需分配救灾援助的信念

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104967

Shannon Callaham , Andrea Mah , Ezra Markowitz

Disaster aid distribution in the U.S. worsens social inequities. Public demand to incorporate needs or social vulnerability into disaster aid policy could lead to more equitable disaster recovery. In two studies (N = 664) we examined what predicts preferences for needs-based disaster aid (Study 1) and then tested whether we could increase support for this kind of policy (Study 2). In Study 1, we asked participants to rate disaster aid distribution policies and report on beliefs that previous research suggests would relate to policy preferences. Social Dominance Orientation and Conservatism predicted less support for needs-based aid. People who did not endorse common disaster myths (e.g., that crime rates increase after a disaster), and who saw climate change or wealth distribution as causes of disaster harm supported needs-based aid. In Study 2, we developed messages targeting these three beliefs and compared them to a control message. While our intervention did not influence support for needs-based aid, it did shift the targeted beliefs, which were again positively associated with support for needs-based aid. Findings from Study 2 also shed light on participants’ own reasoning behind their preferences, which may prove useful for policy design and framing as well. Our studies highlight beliefs and other factors that relate to preferences for different types of disaster aid and provide an entry point for future equity efforts in disaster recovery.

美国的灾害援助分配加剧了社会不平等。公众要求将需求或社会脆弱性纳入灾害援助政策，这可能会带来更加公平的灾后恢复。在两项研究（N = 664）中，我们考察了哪些因素会影响人们对基于需求的灾害援助的偏好（研究 1），然后测试了我们是否能增加对此类政策的支持（研究 2）。在研究 1 中，我们要求参与者对灾害援助分配政策进行评分，并报告以往研究表明与政策偏好相关的信念。社会主导取向和保守主义预示着对基于需求的援助的支持率较低。那些不赞成常见的灾难迷思（例如，灾难发生后犯罪率会上升）、认为气候变化或财富分配是造成灾难伤害的原因的人支持以需求为基础的援助。在研究 2 中，我们开发了针对这三种信念的信息，并将其与对照信息进行了比较。虽然我们的干预并没有影响对基于需求的援助的支持，但它确实改变了目标信念，这些信念再次与对基于需求的援助的支持呈正相关。研究 2 的结果还揭示了参与者自身偏好背后的原因，这可能对政策设计和框架制定也有帮助。我们的研究强调了与不同类型灾害援助偏好相关的信念和其他因素，并为未来灾后恢复的公平工作提供了一个切入点。

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引用次数: 0