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Are there heterogeneities in environmental risks among different types of resource-based cities in China? Assessment based on environmental risk field approach 中国不同类型资源型城市的环境风险是否存在异质性?基于环境风险领域方法的评估
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104810

With the rapid social and economic development, urban environmental risks are surging, necessitating urgent attention to prevention, control, and management. Resource-based cities, reliant on natural resources for economic growth, grapple with environmental hazards stemming from mineral resource extraction, processing, and production. The proliferation of “high energy consumption and high emission” projects exacerbates these risks through indiscriminate development. Environmental risk profiles vary significantly across resource-based cities at different developmental stages and with diverse resource portfolios. Employing the environmental risk field theory, this study assesses environmental risks in growing (Ordos), mature (Ganzhou), declining (Baishan), and regenerating (Baotou) resource-based cities, from 2015 to 2021 at a 10 km × 10 km resolution. The research findings reveal significant heterogeneity in environmental risks among various types of resource-based cities. While environmental risks generally exhibit an upward trend across all four city types, the increase is notably more pronounced in growing and mature resource-based cities. Growing and regenerating resource-based cities exhibit relatively lower levels of environmental risk, with distinct spatial agglomeration, whereas mature and declining resource-based cities face higher overall environmental risks, demonstrating greater receptor vulnerability and environmental risk field intensity, respectively. These results offer insights into the spatial distribution and predominant risk profiles of various resource-based urban environmental risk, identify high-risk points, and provide valuable suggestions for management strategies in resource-based cities.

随着社会和经济的快速发展,城市环境风险急剧上升,亟需重视预防、控制和管理。资源型城市的经济增长依赖于自然资源,在矿产资源的开采、加工和生产过程中会产生环境危害。而 "高能耗、高排放 "项目的激增则加剧了这些风险。处于不同发展阶段、拥有不同资源组合的资源型城市,其环境风险状况也大相径庭。本研究运用环境风险场理论,以 10 km × 10 km 的分辨率评估了资源型城市从 2015 年到 2021 年的成长期(鄂尔多斯)、成熟期(赣州)、衰退期(白山)和再生期(包头)的环境风险。研究结果表明,各类资源型城市的环境风险存在显著的异质性。虽然四种城市类型的环境风险总体上呈上升趋势,但成长型和成熟型资源型城市的环境风险上升更为明显。成长型和再生型资源型城市的环境风险水平相对较低,具有明显的空间聚集性,而成熟型和衰退型资源型城市面临的总体环境风险较高,分别表现出更大的受体脆弱性和环境风险场强度。这些结果有助于深入了解各种资源型城市环境风险的空间分布和主要风险特征,识别高风险点,并为资源型城市的管理策略提供有价值的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Well-being and ill-being: Prominences and differences in the perspectives of volunteers in the immediate and longer-term aftermaths of disaster 幸福与不幸:灾后初期和灾后较长时期志愿者视角的共同点和不同点
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104837

This paper presents the results of a PERMA (plus ill-being) analysis of the ways in which young post-disaster volunteers in Aotearoa New Zealand across the 2010-20 decade talked of well-being and ill-being. The 57 interviewees were divided into two cohorts based on whether they volunteered in the immediate or longer-term aftermath of disaster. Across both cohorts, interviewees believed that volunteering after disaster engendered significant well-being benefits, and that these benefits were instrumental in enabling them to counter the potentially negative impacts of disaster. Yet notable differences also existed between the two cohorts. A greater proportion of immediate post-disaster volunteers talked of tiredness/exhaustion (ill-being) but derived well-being from being part of a movement and enabling others. Conversely, those who volunteered in the longer-term aftermath recounted a broader experience of well-being (including a sense of being valued, commitment, satisfaction from having an enjoyable experience, interest, and developing self-belief). These findings contribute to scholarship on volunteers’ well-being by highlighting the differences in well-being experiences across youth volunteers in immediate disaster response and longer-term aftermath of disaster recovery.

本文介绍了一项 PERMA(加福祉)分析的结果,分析了 2010-20 十年间新西兰奥特亚罗瓦的年轻灾后志愿者谈论福祉和福祉的方式。57 名受访者根据他们是在灾后初期还是灾后较长时期参与志愿服务被分为两组。在这两组受访者中,他们都认为灾后志愿服务能带来巨大的幸福感,这些幸福感有助于他们抵御灾害可能带来的负面影响。然而,两组受访者之间也存在明显的差异。更多的灾后志愿者谈到了疲惫/精疲力竭(不健康),但他们从参与运动和帮助他人中 获得了幸福感。相反,那些在灾后较长时间内参与志愿服务的人则讲述了更广泛的幸福体验(包括被重视感、承诺、从愉快的经历中获得的满足感、兴趣以及发展自信心)。这些研究结果通过强调青年志愿者在即时救灾和长期灾后恢复中的幸福体验差异,为志愿者幸福感的研究做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Global pandemic governance: A multilevel concept for managing pandemic crises worldwide 全球大流行病治理:管理全球大流行病危机的多层次概念
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104829

This article examines how countries can effectively respond to global health pandemics in six stages. Previous research has assumed that human social and economic activities affect the spread of viral infectious diseases, and it has been noted that countries fight global pandemics independently, making the response inefficient. As no comprehensive governing guidelines exist for managing global public health pandemics, this article argues for the need for an international, integrated governance framework, offering theoretical reflections on a novel integrated, multilevel governance concept, the Global Governance of Pandemic Crises (GGPC), which is centered around crisis management theory at an international level. The article differentiates four pandemic governance processes—risk, emergence, recovery, and goal governance—in six pandemic periods that are linked to different processes of public health pandemic governance. The GGPC concept may prove useful to organisations responsible for governing pandemics and implementing relevant measures in affected countries.

本文分六个阶段探讨了各国如何有效应对全球卫生大流行病。以往的研究认为,人类的社会和经济活动会影响病毒性传染病的传播,并指出各国独立对抗全球大流行病,导致应对效率低下。由于目前尚无管理全球公共卫生大流行病的综合治理准则,本文认为有必要建立一个国际综合治理框架,并围绕国际层面的危机管理理论,对一个新颖的多层次综合治理概念--大流行病危机全球治理(GGPC)--进行了理论思考。文章区分了六个大流行时期的四个大流行治理过程--风险、出现、恢复和目标治理,这些过程与公共卫生大流行治理的不同过程相关联。对于负责治理大流行病和在受影响国家实施相关措施的组织而言,GGPC 概念可能证明是有用的。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the relationship between climate change events and migration decisions: Evidence from a choice experiment in Bangladesh 探索气候变化事件与移民决策之间的关系:来自孟加拉国选择实验的证据
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104831
Bangladesh is a low-lying deltaic nation with high vulnerability to climate-related hazards. Hatiya Island is located in Southern Bangladesh, and residents rely significantly on fishing and agriculture for their livelihoods. However, the island's primary production systems face a threat from intense and frequent sudden onset environmental hazards such as river erosion, cyclones, and flooding, as well as slow onset environmental hazards like saline intrusion, tidal inundation, and rising temperatures. Little is known about the effect sudden onset and slow onset hazards have on the migration patterns of Hatiya's residents. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between climatic events and the migration decisions of residents on Hatiya Island. To explore this link, we collected empirical data from 337 respondents on Hatiya Island using a choice experiment survey. The five attributes were used to construct migration scenarios, including climate events at Hatiya Island, the distance of migration, the migration type, the social network at the potential destination, and the difference in income between Hatiya Island and the potential destination. The findings from the mixed logit model indicated that climate events at Hatiya, migration distance, and income gap affected residents' migration decisions. Extreme slow onset change and extreme sudden onset change were less likely to induce migration compared to the moderate level of slow and sudden onset change. However, residents were more likely to migrate as the income difference between Hatiya and the prospective destination increased. Residents were willing to migrate at a 9.4 % increase in income for extreme sudden onset change, while residents required a 14.19 % increase in income to migrate in response to extreme slow onset change. As such, policies are needed to support migrants in receiving areas through improved social protection systems, to support migrant-sending households' transformative adaptation in origin areas, and to bolster community-driven adaptation initiatives in Hatiya. The findings from this study can contribute to the existing literature on the relationship between environmental hazards and mobility and inform policymakers on how to design policies that support vulnerable populations.
孟加拉国是一个地势低洼的三角洲国家,极易受到气候灾害的影响。哈提亚岛位于孟加拉国南部,居民主要依靠渔业和农业为生。然而,该岛的初级生产系统面临着强烈而频繁的突发性环境灾害(如河流侵蚀、飓风和洪水)以及缓慢发生的环境灾害(如盐水入侵、潮汐淹没和气温上升)的威胁。人们对突发性和缓发性灾害对哈提亚居民迁移模式的影响知之甚少。本研究旨在调查气候事件与哈提亚岛居民迁移决定之间的关系。为了探究这一关系,我们采用选择实验调查的方法,从哈提亚岛上的 337 名受访者那里收集了经验数据。我们利用五个属性来构建移民情景,包括哈提亚岛的气候事件、移民距离、移民类型、潜在目的地的社会网络以及哈提亚岛与潜在目的地之间的收入差异。混合对数模型的结果表明,哈提亚岛的气候事件、迁移距离和收入差距影响了居民的迁移决策。与中等程度的缓变和骤变相比,极端缓变和极端骤变导致移民的可能性较小。然而,随着 Hatiya 与预期目的地之间收入差距的扩大,居民更有可能迁移。对于极端突发性变化,居民愿意在收入增加 9.4% 的情况下迁移,而对于极端缓慢突发性变化,居民则需要在收入增加 14.19% 的情况下迁移。因此,需要制定政策,通过改善社会保护体系来支持接收地区的移民,支持移民输出家庭在原籍地区的转型适应,并支持哈提亚社区驱动的适应行动。本研究的结果可为有关环境危害与流动性之间关系的现有文献做出贡献,并就如何制定支持弱势群体的政策为政策制定者提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding flood in Kosovo: Spatial patterns, urban influences and implications for resilience in Lumbardhi i Pejës and Klina catchments 了解科索沃的洪水:Lumbardhi i Pejës 和 Klina 集水区的空间模式、城市影响及其对抗灾能力的影响
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104830

Intensive and uncontrolled urbanization is one of the most challenging problems related to the probability of future floods due to alterations in local hydrological conditions and a rise in flood vulnerability. The main aim of the study was to assess the impact of unregulated urbanization on flood extent in two selected catchments, Lumbardhi i Pejës and Klina, located in Kosovo. To identify differences between catchments, changes in land cover type and rainfall-runoff interactions were investigated. Additionally, the dynamics of the urbanization process were evaluated for river valleys on the country scale. The results confirm that uncontrolled urbanization has an impact on the escalation of peak discharge and increases the areas affected by flash floods and floodplains. The analysis indicated that the lack of spatial planning policies in Kosovo led to uncontrolled urban development in flood valleys and the construction of barriers in natural flow paths in the period 2006–2018. On the country scale, urban areas located in natural valleys increased from 3.96 % to 11.53 %. The spatial pattern and area of urban floods were highly correlated with existing barriers, distance from natural flow paths, and slope value. Urban planning strategies based on open-access satellites including optical and radar sensors is related to inadequate spatial resolution for urban flood mapping. Additionally, flood dynamics needs to be monitored with higher temporal resolution.

由于当地水文条件的改变和洪水脆弱性的增加,密集和无节制的城市化是与未来洪水发生概率相关的最具挑战性的问题之一。这项研究的主要目的是评估无节制城市化对科索沃 Lumbardhi i Pejës 和 Klina 这两个选定集水区洪水范围的影响。为了确定集水区之间的差异,研究人员调查了土地覆被类型和降雨-径流相互作用的变化。此外,还对全国范围内河谷的城市化进程动态进行了评估。结果证实,无节制的城市化会影响峰值排水量的上升,并增加受山洪和洪泛区影响的面积。分析表明,由于科索沃缺乏空间规划政策,在 2006-2018 年期间,洪水流域的城市发展失控,并在自然水流路径上建造了障碍物。在全国范围内,位于自然河谷的城市地区从 3.96% 增加到 11.53%。城市洪水的空间模式和面积与现有障碍物、与自然水流路径的距离以及坡度值高度相关。基于开放式卫星(包括光学和雷达传感器)的城市规划战略与绘制城市洪水地图的空间分辨率不足有关。此外,还需要以更高的时间分辨率来监测洪水动态。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating prospect theory and hesitant fuzzy linguistic preferences for enhanced urban flood resilience assessment: A case study of the tuojiang river Basin in western China 整合前景理论和犹豫模糊语言偏好,加强城市抗洪评估:中国西部沱江流域案例研究
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104825

The intricate interplay between extreme climatic events and rapid urbanization has compounded the difficulties associated with urban flood resilience, prompting urgent improvements in cities' disaster preparedness and early warning systems. Existing assessment methodologies overlook human factors like decision-makers' psychological biases, hindering precise evaluations of flood defense capabilities. Motivated by the practical need for innovative disaster assessment tools, this study integrates hesitant fuzzy theory with prospect theory. This pioneering approach introduces interval-type indicators into the urban flood resilience assessment framework, establishing a quantitative model to gauge the correlation between urban resilience and various influencing factors. Using the Tuojiang River Basin in western China as a focal point, the research calculates the comprehensive urban flood resilience index for six cities along the Tuojiang River from 2002 to 2021. The findings indicate a consistent upward trajectory in the urban flood resilience index, mirroring government management practices. Notably, Chengdu boasts the highest urban flood resilience index at 1.4288, while Luzhou's index stands at −0.4376, reflecting a shortfall in the expected or desired level within the assessment framework, though without compromising index comparability. Moreover, both cities surpass the regional average of 0.36, categorizing them as high-resilience areas. Significantly, the efficacy of flood defense strategies in these areas correlates positively with economic growth (5.2 %). The model proposed in this study offers a thorough quantification of urban flood defense capabilities, assisting managers in formulating precise disaster mitigation strategies and providing scientific backing for integrated flood disaster management.

极端气候事件与快速城市化之间错综复杂的相互作用加剧了城市抗洪的难度,促使城市的备灾和预警系统亟待改进。现有的评估方法忽视了决策者的心理偏差等人为因素,阻碍了对洪水防御能力的精确评估。出于对创新型灾害评估工具的实际需求,本研究将犹豫模糊理论与前景理论相结合。这种开创性的方法将区间型指标引入城市抗洪能力评估框架,建立了一个定量模型来衡量城市抗洪能力与各种影响因素之间的相关性。研究以中国西部沱江流域为焦点,计算了沱江沿岸六个城市从 2002 年到 2021 年的城市抗洪综合指数。研究结果表明,城市抗洪指数呈持续上升趋势,反映了政府的管理实践。值得注意的是,成都的城市抗洪指数最高,为 1.4288,而泸州的指数为-0.4376,这反映了在评估框架内预期或期望水平的不足,但并不影响指数的可比性。此外,这两个城市都超过了 0.36 的区域平均水平,被归类为高抗灾能力地区。值得注意的是,这些地区的洪水防御战略的有效性与经济增长呈正相关(5.2%)。本研究提出的模型对城市洪水防御能力进行了全面量化,有助于管理者制定精确的减灾战略,为洪水灾害综合管理提供科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
An MCDM-GIS framework for assessing flooding resilience of urban metro systems 评估城市地铁系统抗洪能力的 MCDM-GIS 框架
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104824
Extreme rainstorms pose significant challenges to the operation of urban metro systems. This study proposes a data-driven framework for evaluating the flood resilience of metro systems, considering the spatio-temporal differences in rainfall patterns. Furthermore, it offers recommendations to bolster resilience against flooding, ensuring the safety and continuity of metro systems in the face of increasing climatic challenges. The proposed framework adheres to the tenets of design science research, a methodological approach that synergizes theoretical and empirical aspects. This framework was examined by assessing flood resilience at 254 metro stations in Wuhan. The study reveals insights into the spatial distribution of flood resilience among metro stations, with those located in suburban areas being riskier than their counterparts in city centers. Additionally, the implementation of emergency flood response strategies and the execution of pre-disaster drills play a pivotal role in reducing the potential losses caused by flooding.
特大暴雨给城市地铁系统的运行带来了巨大挑战。考虑到降雨模式的时空差异,本研究提出了一个数据驱动的框架,用于评估地铁系统的抗洪能力。此外,它还提出了加强抗洪能力的建议,以确保地铁系统在面对日益严峻的气候挑战时的安全性和连续性。所提出的框架遵循了设计科学研究的原则,是一种将理论与实证相结合的方法论。通过评估武汉 254 个地铁站的抗洪能力,对该框架进行了检验。研究揭示了地铁站抗洪能力的空间分布,位于郊区的地铁站比位于市中心的地铁站风险更大。此外,洪水应急策略的实施和灾前演练在减少洪水可能造成的损失方面发挥着关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of the incident management system of a bigger city during the winter flood 2023/24 in northern Germany: Organized (ir)responsibility in the pre-disaster phase 评估德国北部一个较大城市在 2023/24 年冬季洪灾期间的事故管理系统:灾前阶段的有组织(非)责任
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104821
Incident management systems operate within complex and uncertain conditions during disasters. Therefore, researching their activities is challenging as there is no clear right or wrong. The winter 2023/2024 flood event in the city of Oldenburg, Germany, provided an opportunity to evaluate crisis management under high uncertainty, although no disaster has eventually occurred. Three stakeholder groups of the Incident Management System were examined through After-Action Reviews: The Emergency Operation Center (EOC), specialist advisors, and the Area Command (AC). Data on performance shaping factors (descriptions and judgements) were collected and analyzed using the Countenance Evaluation Model as a general framework in combination with a Systems-Thinking approach. The study aimed to identify variables within and between groups as well as factors in the environment that either hindered or facilitated work transactions. It emerged that the work organization in bodies of public administration is at odds with the uncertain, fast-paced, and problem-oriented structure of Incident Management System operations, causing stress and adding workload to employees. Additionally, the separation of strategic and tactical decision making led to coordination issues due to divergent time structures and task logics of EOC and AC. Furthermore, although specialist advisors played a crucial role in risk assessments and setting the direction of risk mitigation activities, it became clear that this person related resource is scarce and difficult to embed into the Incident Command System. A final finding is the importance of the larger Emergency Operation Center working environment. The spatial constraints and noise levels caused stress.
灾害期间,事件管理系统在复杂和不确定的条件下运行。因此,对其活动进行研究具有挑战性,因为没有明确的对错之分。德国奥尔登堡市 2023/2024 年冬季洪水事件为评估高度不确定条件下的危机管理提供了机会,尽管灾难最终并未发生。通过事后分析,对事件管理系统的三个利益相关群体进行了审查:应急行动中心 (EOC)、专家顾问和地区指挥部 (AC)。收集并分析了有关影响绩效因素(描述和判断)的数据,将 "面容评价模型 "作为总体框架,并结合 "系统思维 "方法。研究的目的是确定组内和组间的变量,以及阻碍或促进工作交易的环境因素。研究结果表明,公共行政机构的工作组织与不确定、快节奏和以问题为导向的事件管理系统运作结构不符,给员工造成了压力并增加了工作量。此外,由于平机会和指挥中心的时间结构和任务逻辑不同,战略决策和战术决策的分离导致了协调问题。此外,虽然专家顾问在风险评估和确定风险缓解活动的方向方面发挥了关键作用,但很明显,这种与人员相关的资源非常稀缺,很难纳入事件指挥系统。最后一个发现是应急行动中心工作环境的重要性。空间限制和噪音水平造成了压力。
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引用次数: 0
National risk assessment of Italian school buildings: The MARS project experience 意大利校舍的国家风险评估:MARS 项目经验
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104822
Strategic buildings, such as schools, play a crucial role in civil society. They are essential not only for the well-being of communities but also for their significance during the emergency and recovery phases following an earthquake. Reliable risk assessment is a powerful tool for implementing effective mitigation strategies. While considerable work has been already done in the literature to develop fragility curves and risk studies for residential buildings, there remains a noticeable gap in addressing risk assessment for school portfolios. As part of the 2019–2021 MARS (Seismic Risk MAps) project, funded by the Italian Civil Protection Department and involving the ReLUIS consortium along with the EUCENTRE foundation, a specific task was dedicated to evaluating seismic risk for the Italian school buildings. In this context, eight research units combined their expertise to develop a consensus-based vulnerability model, known as the “School-MARS model”. This model integrates fragility curves based on various approaches (i.e. empirical, mechanical-analytical, mechanical-numerical and hybrid) and is tailored to archetypes representative of the Italian school buildings. The main goal of the paper is outlining the methodology used to define the “School-MARS vulnerability model”. Moreover, the paper demonstrates the application of the latter for performing intensity-based and time-based risk analyses. Specifically, the results are presented in terms of damage distribution and usability ratings expected for the entire stock of Italian school building. Notably, these results indicate that approximately 26 % of Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings and 31 % of Unreinforced Masonry (URM) structures may become unusable due to potential earthquakes expected in the next 50 years.
学校等战略性建筑在公民社会中发挥着至关重要的作用。它们不仅对社区的福祉至关重要,而且在地震后的应急和恢复阶段也具有重要意义。可靠的风险评估是实施有效减灾战略的有力工具。虽然文献中已经开展了大量工作,为住宅建筑绘制脆性曲线并进行风险研究,但在处理学校建筑组合的风险评估方面仍存在明显差距。作为 2019-2021 年 MARS(地震风险 MAps)项目的一部分,该项目由意大利民防部资助,ReLUIS 财团和 EUCENTRE 基金会共同参与,专门用于评估意大利学校建筑的地震风险。在这一背景下,八个研究单位结合各自的专长,开发了一个基于共识的易损性模型,即 "学校-MARS 模型"。该模型整合了基于各种方法(即经验法、机械分析法、机械数值法和混合法)的脆性曲线,并针对意大利学校建筑的代表性原型进行了定制。本文的主要目标是概述用于定义 "学校-MARS 脆弱性模型 "的方法。此外,本文还展示了后者在基于强度和时间的风险分析中的应用。具体而言,本文介绍了意大利全部校舍的损坏分布情况和预期可用性评级结果。值得注意的是,这些结果表明,由于预计未来 50 年可能发生的地震,约 26% 的钢筋混凝土(RC)建筑和 31% 的非钢筋砌体(URM)建筑可能无法使用。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the propagation characteristics of shockwave in dense crowd in corner passage 转角通道密集人群中冲击波传播特性研究
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104826

Crowd shockwaves are prone to occur when evacuating dense crowds, especially in areas with corner passages, leading to congestion and accidents. The characteristics of shockwaves in corner passages need further exploration. This study used AnyLogic software based on the social force model to construct scenarios. The propagation mechanism of crowd shockwaves was revealed through simulation analysis of the changes in wave amplitude, duration, and propagation velocity of crowd density waves under different corner angles (0–90°). It was found that a 45° corner passage has advantages compared to other corner passages for evacuation. At higher desired velocities, pedestrians form a bottleneck-like area at the corner of the passage, resulting in crowd shockwaves. Because of social forces, congestion occurs primarily in the corner area. To alleviate this pressure, pedestrians actively adjust the distance between themselves and others. The time interval between the two shockwaves decreases as the desired velocity increases. The propagation time of crowd shockwaves before the corner is generally more significant than the duration after the corner. This study could guide the elimination or reduction of crowd shockwaves, improving pedestrians' evacuation efficiency and safety in evacuation passages.

在疏散密集人群时,尤其是在有拐角通道的区域,容易发生人群冲击波,导致拥堵和事故。拐角通道冲击波的特征需要进一步探讨。本研究使用基于社会力模型的 AnyLogic 软件来构建情景。通过模拟分析不同转角角度(0-90°)下人群密度波的波幅、持续时间和传播速度的变化,揭示了人群冲击波的传播机理。研究发现,与其他转角通道相比,45° 转角通道具有疏散优势。在期望速度较高时,行人会在通道拐角处形成类似瓶颈的区域,从而产生人群冲击波。由于社会力量的作用,拥挤主要发生在转角区域。为了缓解这种压力,行人会主动调整自己与他人之间的距离。随着所需速度的增加,两次冲击波之间的时间间隔会缩短。拐角前人群冲击波的传播时间一般比拐角后的持续时间更长。这项研究可以指导消除或减少人群冲击波,提高行人的疏散效率和疏散通道的安全性。
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引用次数: 0
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