International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第10页

A methodology for selecting optimal seismic risk mitigation strategies for the Italian residential masonry built heritage 意大利住宅砌体建筑遗产选择最佳地震风险缓解策略的方法

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105897

Pietro Carpanese, Veronica Follador, Marco Donà, Francesca da Porto

Italy is one of the most seismically active countries in Europe, with a long history of destructive earthquakes that have caused significant human and economic losses. The country's extensive stock of unreinforced masonry buildings, many of which are residential and of historical value, is particularly vulnerable to seismic events. In recent decades, the Italian government has faced major costs associated with earthquake damage, highlighting the urgent need for the definition of comprehensive seismic risk mitigation strategies. This study presents an integrated approach to identify optimal seismic risk mitigation strategies for the residential masonry building stock in Italy. By developing and applying fragility models for both as-built and retrofitted buildings, the research assesses the effectiveness of possible strengthening techniques. The study also incorporates a cost model for the selected interventions, enabling cost-benefit analyses to assess their feasibility at a territorial scale, based on the expected direct economic losses from structural damage. The payback time of the initial investment for the intervention is computed, and by combining the cost-effectiveness of the intervention with the increase of building performance, different strategies to select the best interventions at municipal level have been elaborated. This work thus provides policymakers with a methodology to prioritize seismic retrofitting at a territorial scale, to boost the execution of interventions and enhance the overall seismic resilience of the Italian building stock.

意大利是欧洲地震最活跃的国家之一，具有悠久的破坏性地震历史，造成了重大的人员和经济损失。该国大量的未经加固的砖石建筑，其中许多是住宅和具有历史价值的建筑，特别容易受到地震事件的影响。近几十年来，意大利政府面临着与地震损害相关的重大成本，这突出表明迫切需要制定全面的减轻地震风险战略。本研究提出了一种综合方法来确定意大利住宅砌体建筑库存的最佳地震风险缓解策略。通过开发和应用已建成和改造建筑的脆弱性模型，本研究评估了可能的加固技术的有效性。该研究还纳入了选定干预措施的成本模型，使成本效益分析能够根据结构破坏造成的预期直接经济损失，评估其在领土范围内的可行性。计算了干预措施的初始投资回报时间，并将干预措施的成本效益与建筑性能的提高相结合，阐述了在市政层面选择最佳干预措施的不同策略。因此，这项工作为政策制定者提供了一种在区域尺度上优先考虑抗震改造的方法，以促进干预措施的执行，并提高意大利建筑的整体抗震能力。

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引用次数: 0

Hybrid methodology for flood early warning indicators: Combining hydrodynamic modeling and community participation in Manizales, Colombia 洪水预警指标的混合方法：结合水动力模型和哥伦比亚马尼萨莱斯的社区参与

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105895

N. Cardona Gómez , J. Zambrano Nájera , J.J. Vélez Upegui , F.A. Yara Amaya

This paper presents a hybrid methodology for the definition and validation of flash flood indicators and thresholds, combining hydrodynamic modeling with community participation. The proposed approach was developed within the framework of implementing Community-based Early Warning Systems in the Lusitania and Providencia neighborhoods -flood-prone areas-located in Manizales, Colombia. From the technical perspective, a hydraulic model was built in IBER, calibrated, and validated using historical records and field measurements. Multiple simulations were then performed under different boundary conditions to determine the water levels associated with flood flows. In addition, empirical hydrological methods reported in the literature were applied to estimate bankfull levels and discharges based on local morphological parameters. From the community perspective, participatory workshops were conducted to identify critical river sections and the corresponding overflow levels. The results show that community-defined levels aligned closely with the modeled values in Lusitania. In Providencia, however, the hydrological approach proved more accurate. These findings suggest that a hybrid approach -integrating technical analysis and local knowledge-can significantly enhance the accuracy and reliability of thresholds and indicators used in Flood Early Warning Systems, thereby improving their long-term sustainability.

本文提出了一种将水动力学建模与社区参与相结合的混合方法，用于定义和验证山洪指标和阈值。拟议的方法是在哥伦比亚马尼萨莱斯的卢西塔尼亚和普罗维登西亚社区（洪水易发地区）实施社区预警系统的框架内制定的。从技术角度来看，在IBER中建立了一个水力模型，并使用历史记录和现场测量进行校准和验证。然后在不同的边界条件下进行了多次模拟，以确定与洪水相关的水位。此外，文献中报道的经验水文方法被应用于基于局部形态参数估计河岸水位和流量。从社区角度出发，举办了参与性工作坊，以确定关键河段和相应的溢流水位。结果表明，卢西塔尼亚的社区定义水平与模型值密切相关。然而，在普罗维登西亚，水文方法被证明更为准确。这些发现表明，综合技术分析和当地知识的混合方法可以显著提高洪水预警系统中使用的阈值和指标的准确性和可靠性，从而提高其长期可持续性。

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引用次数: 0

The new normal: Nuclear facilities as military targets. Establishing operational criteria to enable large-scale operations by crisis and disaster management organisations 新常态：核设施成为军事目标。建立操作标准，使危机和灾害管理组织能够进行大规模操作

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105837

Phillip Frank Vilar Welter , Edward Waller

The unprecedented occupation of the Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the concerning safety relevant events (such as the shelling of the plant, drone strikes, the systematic loss of off-site power, or the destruction of the Kakhovka reservoir) have brought political attention to the risk of a severe nuclear power plant incident taking place within a larger and complex crisis or disaster. The recent military operations against Iran's nuclear facilities have further heightened such concerns.

In such an event, crisis and disaster management organisations (such as civil protection, technical relief, firefighting, health, humanitarian aid, law enforcement and military authorities, as well as critical infrastructure operators) may need to conduct large-scale critical undelayable operations in areas affected by the severe nuclear power plant incident.

In order to do so, incident commanders and operational planners require simple and clear operational criteria to make informed decisions on the basis of readily available radiation monitoring data. Such criteria already exist to protect the public in severe nuclear accidents, and to protect trained and well-equipped responders in small-scale radiological emergencies, but they have not yet been developed for large-scale deployments. This article closes this gap.

The criteria provided in this article are based on a tailored risk assessment and risk management methodology, which involved a radiological impact assessment, the analysis of protective measures, and a justification and optimization process that prioritizes (a) the operational resilience of deployed teams and (b) the integration of radiation protection measures into a broader multi-hazard risk management effort.

对乌克兰核电站史无前例的占领和相关的安全事件（如对核电站的炮击、无人机袭击、场外电力的系统性损失或卡霍夫卡水库的破坏）引起了政治上的关注，即在更大、更复杂的危机或灾难中发生严重核电站事故的风险。最近针对伊朗核设施的军事行动进一步加剧了这种担忧。在这种情况下，危机和灾害管理组织（如民防、技术救援、消防、卫生、人道主义援助、执法和军事当局以及关键基础设施运营商）可能需要在受严重核电站事故影响的地区开展大规模的关键、不可延迟的行动。为此，事故指挥官和行动规划者需要简单而明确的行动准则，以便根据现成的辐射监测数据作出明智的决定。这些标准已经存在，以在严重核事故中保护公众，并在小规模辐射紧急情况中保护训练有素和装备精良的响应者，但尚未制定用于大规模部署的标准。本文填补了这一空白。本文提供的标准基于量身定制的风险评估和风险管理方法，其中包括辐射影响评估、防护措施分析，以及优先考虑(a)部署团队的操作弹性和(b)将辐射防护措施整合到更广泛的多危害风险管理工作中的论证和优化过程。

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引用次数: 0

Disaster risk management tipping points: impacts of extreme wildfire events and the resulting need for layered disaster risk management solutions 灾害风险管理引爆点：极端野火事件的影响以及由此产生的分层灾害风险管理解决方案的需求

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105894

C. Berchtold , E. Plana , J.M. Costa Saura , N. Kalapodis , G. Sakkas , J. Handmer , J. Linnerooth-Bayer , A. Scolobig , J. Tsaloukidis , D. Ballereau , J.-P. Monet , M. Serra , M. Garofalo

Wildfire regimes are changing globally with an increase in global burned area and changes in fire characteristics. Recent research shows that the number of extreme fire events is increasing exponentially and events such as the most recent fires in Los Angeles in the U.S. (2025), the Hawaii fires (2023), Canada's record-breaking fires (2023), the largest recorded fires in Greece-Europe (2023) and the 2025 European fire season underpin this observation.

Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) thereby pose new challenges and limits to managing disaster risk. This refers not only to response operations but also to “conventional” preventive measures such as the creation of buffer zones that may no longer be effective. This paper depicts several limits of conventional wildfire risk management measures towards EWEs and introduces the concept of disaster risk management tipping points (DRM TPs) as critical thresholds that necessitate a revised set of disaster risk management strategies.

Building on a bibliographic review, we depict the novelty of the concept and apply it to selected illustrative examples. We propose that this conceptualisation is useful when developing “layered” or diversified risk management approaches for different types of wildfire events including extremes. It may also leverage and shift the discussion around responsibilities in managing risk in terms of public versus individual contributions, the distribution of investments as well as related aspects of justice.

随着全球燃烧面积的增加和火灾特征的变化，全球野火制度正在发生变化。最近的研究表明，极端火灾事件的数量呈指数级增长，诸如美国洛杉矶最近的火灾（2025年）、夏威夷火灾（2023年）、加拿大创纪录的火灾（2023年）、希腊-欧洲有记录的最大火灾（2023年）和2025年欧洲火灾季节等事件都支持了这一观察结果。因此，极端野火事件给灾害风险管理带来了新的挑战和限制。这不仅指应对行动，也指“常规”预防措施，如设立可能不再有效的缓冲区。本文描述了传统野火风险管理措施对ewe的几个限制，并介绍了灾害风险管理临界点（DRM TPs）的概念，作为需要修订一套灾害风险管理战略的关键阈值。在文献回顾的基础上，我们描述了这个概念的新颖性，并将其应用于选定的说明性例子。我们建议，在针对不同类型的野火事件（包括极端事件）制定“分层”或多样化的风险管理方法时，这种概念化是有用的。它还可能影响和改变围绕公共与个人贡献、投资分配以及司法相关方面的风险管理责任的讨论。

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引用次数: 0

Housing policies for the new paradigm: Lessons learned from World Bank disaster recovery projects (1980⁠–2024) 新范式的住房政策：从世界银行灾难恢复项目中吸取的经验教训（1980年-2024年）

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105871

Luis Triveño , Ede Ijjász-Vásquez , Jessica Gosling-Goldsmith , Carlos Ariel Cortés

Established in the aftermath of World War II, the World Bank's infrastructure and development projects include those that address housing needs after conflicts and disasters. To support these efforts, we conducted a comprehensive review of the World Bank's disaster recovery projects from fiscal 1980 to 2024. By analyzing publicly available documentation, our study spans 83 reconstruction projects with housing recovery components. We found that they met 98.7 percent of their original targets for reconstructing or repairing units, financing the recovery of 2.3 million homes, or 32 percent of the total units impacted by the disasters. Our analysis also indicates that results frameworks did not systematically measure factors such as the cost and quality of the housing solutions and the time to deliver them. We suggest that future housing reconstruction efforts consistently assess speed, cost-efficiency, and quality of housing delivery, along with beneficiary satisfaction. Additionally, our research highlights the importance of robust preexisting governance and market conditions for the performance of housing reconstruction projects. We propose a new concept – resilient housing capacity – to describe these prior conditions, which can enable countries not only to Build Back Better but also Build Better Before. Given that resilient housing capacity takes time to establish, we contend that it ought to be a key policy objective guiding the design of housing policies and programs in developing countries, and we offer actionable recommendations to improve it.

世界银行的基础设施和发展项目成立于第二次世界大战后，包括解决冲突和灾害后住房需求的项目。为了支持这些工作，我们对世界银行1980财年至2024财年的灾后恢复项目进行了全面审查。通过分析公开文件，我们的研究涵盖了83个具有住房恢复成分的重建项目。我们发现，他们完成了98.7%的原计划重建和修复目标，为230万户家庭提供了资金，占受灾家庭总数的32%。我们的分析还表明，结果框架没有系统地衡量诸如住房解决方案的成本和质量以及交付时间等因素。我们建议，未来的住房重建工作应始终评估住房交付的速度、成本效益和质量，以及受益人的满意度。此外，我们的研究强调了强健的既存治理和市场条件对住房重建项目绩效的重要性。我们提出了一个新的概念——弹性住房能力——来描述这些先决条件，它不仅可以使国家重建得更好，而且可以使以前的建设更好。鉴于弹性住房能力的建立需要时间，我们认为它应该成为指导发展中国家住房政策和项目设计的关键政策目标，我们提出了可行的建议来改善它。

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引用次数: 0

Alerts and warnings under disrupted communication infrastructure: Lahaina residents’ immediate responses to the 2023 wildfire 通信基础设施中断下的警报和警告：拉海纳居民对2023年野火的即时反应

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105884

Chen Chen , Changjian Zhang , Michael K. Lindell , Yiwei Wang , Qianli Qiu , Haizhong Wang , Guohui Zhang

The 2023 Lahaina wildfire exposed critical vulnerabilities in the community's alert and warning infrastructure, highlighting the limitations of centralized systems experiencing common cause and cascading failures. This study surveyed 657 survivors after the wildfire at the community's disaster recovery center to understand how residents received and responded to the wildfire's environmental cues, observations of neighbors evacuating, and warning channels and warning content. The questionnaire also gathered data about respondents' protective actions. These findings indicate that the majority (93 %) of residents did not receive official alerts as their first information about the wildfire. Instead, half of them became aware of the wildfire by observing environmental cues (48 % saw the wildfire approaching) and many others were alerted by social cues (20 % saw others evacuating). Although 12 % were warned face-to-face, and 13 % received text messages or phone calls, these came mostly (78 %) from peers (friends, relatives, neighbors, or coworkers). These results underscore the importance of alternative sources of threat information in rapid onset disasters. Additionally, they highlight the diversity of protective actions, with some residents choosing to evacuate preemptively, whereas others delayed their departure, opted to wait for further information, or stayed to defend their properties.

2023年的拉海纳野火暴露了社区警报和预警基础设施的关键漏洞，突出了集中式系统在经历共同原因和级联故障时的局限性。本研究在社区灾难恢复中心调查了657名野火幸存者，以了解居民如何接收和应对野火的环境线索，观察邻居撤离，以及警告渠道和警告内容。调查问卷还收集了有关受访者保护行动的数据。这些发现表明，大多数（93%）的居民没有收到官方警报作为他们关于野火的第一个信息。相反，他们中有一半是通过观察环境线索（48%的人看到野火接近）意识到野火的，还有许多人是通过社会线索（20%的人看到其他人正在撤离）警觉到野火的。虽然有12%的人收到了面对面的警告，13%的人收到了短信或电话，但这些警告大多（78%）来自同伴（朋友、亲戚、邻居或同事）。这些结果强调了在快速发生的灾害中替代威胁信息来源的重要性。此外，他们还强调了保护行动的多样性，一些居民选择先发制人地撤离，而另一些人则推迟离开，选择等待进一步的信息，或者留下来保护自己的财产。

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引用次数: 0

Multi-hazard vulnerability and impact intensification: Interactive hazards and impact compounding in coastal areas 多灾害脆弱性和影响加剧：沿海地区相互作用的灾害和影响复合

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105883

Berrin Tansel

Coastal communities in tropical and subtropical regions face increasing vulnerability to hazards due to population growth, fragile ecosystems, aging infrastructure, expansion of coastal and offshore facilities, and the critical role of coastal resources for economies. Multi-hazard vulnerability assessment examines how different hazards interact and their combined effects on populations, infrastructure, economies, and ecosystems. Cascading effects may occur within a single domain (e.g., environment) or across domains (e.g., water infrastructure and public health), creating complex challenges that amplify impacts. A simple methodology was developed for comparing and ranking multi-hazard impacts on critical coastal systems to improve preparedness, response, and recovery. The numerical framework integrates exposure, vulnerability, and hazard interaction intensification to support decision-making and resource allocation for resilience planning. The methodology was demonstrated in a Gulf of Mexico case study involving four hazard types (hurricane-related flooding, non-hurricane flooding, oil rig spills, and pipeline accidents) and three exposed systems (people, port services, and ecosystems). Vulnerabilities were assessed for both single- and multi-hazard scenarios to highlight compounding effects and inform planning. The framework was applied to compare impacts from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy, which involved different multi-hazard interactions (Katrina: hurricane, levee failure, oil spills; Sandy: post-tropical cyclone, storm surge). Impact scores were calculated across people, infrastructure, and ecosystems, aligning closely with observed disruption and damage. These results demonstrate the framework's utility in supporting knowledge-based decisions for resilience planning, prioritizing interventions, and addressing system-specific vulnerabilities in multi-hazard contexts.

由于人口增长、脆弱的生态系统、老化的基础设施、沿海和近海设施的扩张以及沿海资源对经济的关键作用，热带和亚热带地区的沿海社区越来越容易受到灾害的影响。多灾害脆弱性评估考察不同的灾害如何相互作用，以及它们对人口、基础设施、经济和生态系统的综合影响。级联效应可能发生在单一领域（例如，环境）或跨领域（例如，水基础设施和公共卫生），造成放大影响的复杂挑战。开发了一种简单的方法，用于比较和排序多灾害对关键沿海系统的影响，以改进准备、响应和恢复。该数值框架整合了暴露、脆弱性和灾害相互作用强度，以支持弹性规划的决策和资源分配。该方法在墨西哥湾的一个案例研究中得到了验证，该案例研究涉及四种危害类型（飓风相关洪水、非飓风洪水、石油钻井平台泄漏和管道事故）和三种暴露系统（人员、港口服务和生态系统）。对单一和多灾害情景的脆弱性进行了评估，以突出复合效应并为规划提供信息。该框架被用于比较卡特里娜飓风和桑迪飓风的影响，它们涉及不同的多灾害相互作用（卡特里娜飓风：飓风、堤坝破裂、石油泄漏；桑迪飓风：后热带气旋、风暴潮）。影响评分是根据人员、基础设施和生态系统计算的，与观察到的破坏和破坏密切相关。这些结果证明了该框架在支持基于知识的弹性规划决策、优先干预措施和解决多灾害环境下系统特定脆弱性方面的效用。

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引用次数: 0

From Perception to riskscape: Community-elicited stressors and multi-hazard exposure in northern Chile 从感知到风险：智利北部社区引发的压力源和多重危害暴露

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105869

Melisa Miranda-Correa , Consuelo Biskupovic , Karla Palma , Joaquín P. Moris , Leila Juzám

This paper addresses a gap in multi-hazard assessment: the difficulty of incorporating anthropogenic factors that are visible to laypeople but poorly captured by probabilistic tools. Framed as a riskscape problem, we adopt a problem-oriented lens to first analyze situations and then multiple hazards, mapping the everyday conditions that make cascading interactions more likely and subsequently identifying the natural and technological hazards implicated. Six participatory workshops in Mejillones, northern Chile, produced georeferenced stressor data from residents, neighbourhood leaders, artisanal fishers, members of an industrial safety circle, an environmental NGO, and tourism and heritage actors. These layers were digitised and integrated in GIS and triangulated against official evacuation routes and hazard zoning. Results are organised by three emergent themes: evacuation impedance and route reliability, industrial cascade interfaces and toxic plume risk, and a marine contamination arc that erodes biodiversity and livelihoods. The composite map reveals three multi-hazard hotspots where these themes overlap, clarifies the reason why official safe zones are often not recognised or useable, and shows how stressor mapping can surface traces of otherwise invisible hazards. The discussion links these findings to disaster risk perception, explaining how occupational and territorial contexts shape what different groups considered as objective risk. The conclusions translate the map into policy actions that couple industrial risk management with evacuation design, pair citizen-generated layers with environmental monitoring, and target modest, high-leverage fixes such as gate removal, truck routing, signage, and debris clearance. The contribution is a transferable method for embedding participatory stressor data in quantitative, place-specific multi-hazard planning that aligns risk governance with lived realities in coastal industrial towns.

本文解决了多灾害评估中的一个空白：将外行人可见但概率工具难以捕获的人为因素纳入其中的困难。作为风险景观问题的框架，我们采用问题导向的视角，首先分析情况，然后是多种危害，绘制出更有可能产生级联作用的日常条件，随后确定所涉及的自然和技术危害。在智利北部的梅吉罗内斯（Mejillones）举办了六个参与性讲习班，从居民、社区领导人、手工渔民、工业安全圈成员、环保非政府组织以及旅游业和遗产行动者那里获得了地理参考压力源数据。这些层被数字化并集成到GIS中，并根据官方疏散路线和危险分区进行三角测量。结果由三个紧急主题组织：疏散阻抗和路线可靠性，工业级联界面和有毒烟雾风险，以及侵蚀生物多样性和生计的海洋污染弧。这张合成地图揭示了这些主题重叠的三个多危险热点，阐明了为什么官方安全区经常不被识别或无法使用的原因，并展示了压力源地图如何能够揭示原本看不见的危险的痕迹。讨论将这些发现与灾害风险感知联系起来，解释了职业和领土背景如何影响不同群体认为的客观风险。这些结论将地图转化为政策行动，将工业风险管理与疏散设计结合起来，将公民产生的层面与环境监测结合起来，并以适度、高杠杆的修复为目标，如大门拆除、卡车路线、标牌和碎片清理。其贡献是一种可转移的方法，将参与性压力源数据嵌入定量的、特定地点的多灾害规划中，使风险治理与沿海工业城镇的生活现实保持一致。

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引用次数: 0

Calibrated geo-social link prediction for household–school connectivity in community resilience 社区复原力中家庭与学校连通性的校准地理社会联系预测

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105872

Himadri Sen Gupta , Saptadeep Biswas , Charles D. Nicholson

Understanding community resilience requires models that reason over heterogeneous, geospatially structured relations between households and schools. We engineer a calibrated geo–social link prediction pipeline that fuses a Heterogeneous Graph Transformer (relation-aware message passing), a LightGCN branch (collaborative propagation on the household–school bipartite graph), and multi-scale geospatial Fourier features via a learnable gate. The model is pretrained with denoising reconstruction and an InfoNCE contrastive objective, then fine-tuned with hard negatives; temperature scaling turns scores into well-calibrated probabilities. Evaluation distinguishes (A) a standard split, (A2) a proximity-controlled split that prevents “near” leakage, and strict inductive regimes for (B) cold-start households and (C) cold-start schools, with candidate pools made explicit (ALL-candidate vs. UNSEEN-only). On the held-out test set we obtain AUC 0.997/AP 0.996 with usable probability quality (Brier 0.029, ECE 0.057). Under cold-start households (B), performance remains actionable (AUC 0.864, AP 0.752). For cold-start schools (C, UNSEEN-only pool), the model attains AUC/AP

0.998 / 0.998

with perfect shortlist quality in that pool (Hit@k, NDCG@k

= 1.0

at

k \in {1, 3, 5, 10}

; Hit/NDCG are pool-dependent, AUC/AP are pool-invariant). We report subgroup-resolved calibration with sample counts and show that protocol and calibration change model ranking compared to AUC-only reporting, aligning metrics and pools with decision-support workflows.

理解社区恢复力需要模型来解释家庭和学校之间异质的、地理空间结构的关系。我们设计了一个校准的地理社会链接预测管道，该管道融合了异构图转换器（关系感知消息传递），LightGCN分支（家庭-学校二部图上的协作传播）和多尺度地理空间傅立叶特征，通过可学习的门。用去噪重建和InfoNCE对比目标对模型进行预训练，然后用硬负极对模型进行微调；温度标度将分数转化为校准良好的概率。评估区分了(A)标准分割，（A2）防止“附近”泄漏的邻近控制分割，以及(B)冷启动家庭和(C)冷启动学校的严格归纳制度，候选池明确（ALL-candidate vs unsee -only）。在hold out测试集上，我们得到AUC 0.997/AP 0.996，可用概率质量（Brier 0.029, ECE 0.057）。在冷启动家庭(B)下，性能仍然是可操作的（AUC 0.864, AP 0.752）。对于冷启动学校（C， unsee -only池），模型达到AUC/AP 0.998/0.998，在该池中具有完美的入围质量（Hit@k, NDCG@k =1.0, k∈{1,3,5,10}；Hit/NDCG是池相关的，AUC/AP是池不变的）。我们报告了具有样本计数的子组解析校准，并表明与仅auc报告相比，协议和校准改变了模型排名，将指标和池与决策支持工作流对齐。

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引用次数: 0

Urban waterlogging disaster risk evaluation framework based on complex network and agent-based model: a case study of Zhengzhou, China 基于复杂网络和智能体模型的城市内涝灾害风险评价框架——以郑州市为例

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105885

Jia Xu , Chao Ding , Xiaowen Guo , Jie Ren , Xinyue Liu , Caixia Hou

Urban waterlogging disaster risk assessment is crucial for improving urban emergency response capabilities. The current research has mainly focused on the waterlogging evaluation of flood-prone. In contrast, waterlogging disasters affect urban infrastructure nodes more. Thus, this paper offers a complex network-based urban waterlogging disaster risk assessment framework. That integrates complex network technology and agent-based modeling (ABM) technology and combines ABM with GIS and hydrodynamics to achieve risk simulation and visualization. In this study, an inundation risk assessment model was developed, simulated, and tested using the July 20 inundation data of Zhengzhou, China, in 2021. The simulation results show that (1) Simulation results match the actual situation, the simulated node evacuation and closure scenarios can avoid fatalities to a greater extent; (2) more than 80 % of the nodes in Zhengzhou reach a high-risk state at 15:00 on July 20, resulting in low urban connectivity. Relevant departments can propose emergency rescue plans promptly based on the simulation results. The research results show it is feasible to introduce complex network theory and ABM technology into urban waterlogging risk assessment. The framework has good scalability and can be further applied to assess the collateral risks caused by mudslides, electrocution, and other internal waterlogging disaster.

城市内涝灾害风险评估是提高城市应急响应能力的关键。目前的研究主要集中在易发洪涝地区的内涝评价。而内涝灾害对城市基础设施节点的影响更大。因此，本文提出了一个基于复杂网络的城市内涝灾害风险评估框架。将复杂网络技术与基于agent的建模（ABM）技术相结合，并将ABM与GIS、流体力学相结合，实现风险仿真与可视化。利用2021年中国郑州7月20日的洪水数据，建立了洪水风险评估模型，并进行了模拟和验证。仿真结果表明：(1)仿真结果与实际情况吻合，仿真节点疏散和关闭场景能够更大程度上避免人员伤亡；(2) 7月20日15时，郑州市80%以上节点达到高危状态，导致城市连通性低。相关部门可以根据仿真结果及时提出应急救援方案。研究结果表明，将复杂网络理论和ABM技术引入城市内涝风险评价是可行的。该框架具有良好的可扩展性，可进一步应用于泥石流、触电等内涝灾害的附带风险评估。

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