International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第8页

An end-to-end framework for fire following earthquake simulation at regional scale: A case study on the 2024 Japan Noto Peninsula earthquake 区域尺度地震后火灾模拟的端到端框架：2024 年日本能登半岛地震案例研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104859

Fire following earthquakes remains a significant and threatening hazard to communities in urban regions. Addressing this critical issue requires an effective simulation method that is suitable for widespread adoption. This paper presents a systematic end-to-end framework for simulating fire following earthquakes at a regional scale by integrating models and methods available in existing literature. Relevant theories and models are summarized and incorporated into the calculation workflow. The framework encompasses three key features: (1) GIS-based regional building data management, (2) physics-based fire simulation, and (3) high-fidelity visualization. The implementation of the framework is presented in a sequential and detailed manner, with a focus on its practicality and replicability. Each component of the workflow is designed to be adaptable, allowing for easy customization and improvement to accommodate unique site characteristics or the integration of new models through the introduction of sub-modules. To demonstrate the practicality of the proposed framework, a case study based on the recent 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake in Japan is presented. The simulation results correspond well with the observed actual damage at the fire following earthquake disaster site, with an accuracy of 87.8 %, which validates the framework's accuracy and reliability in simulating fire following earthquakes.

地震后的火灾对城市地区的社区仍然是一个重大的威胁性危险。要解决这一关键问题，需要一种适合广泛采用的有效模拟方法。本文通过整合现有文献中的模型和方法，提出了一个在区域范围内模拟地震后火灾的系统化端到端框架。本文总结了相关理论和模型，并将其纳入计算工作流程。该框架包括三个主要特征：(1) 基于地理信息系统的区域建筑数据管理，(2) 基于物理的火灾模拟，以及 (3) 高保真可视化。该框架的实施是按顺序详细介绍的，重点是其实用性和可复制性。工作流程的每个组成部分都具有适应性，可以方便地进行定制和改进，以适应独特的场地特征，或通过引入子模块整合新模型。为了证明拟议框架的实用性，本文介绍了一个基于 2024 年日本能登半岛地震的案例研究。模拟结果与地震灾后火灾现场观察到的实际破坏情况非常吻合，准确率达到 87.8%，这验证了该框架在模拟地震灾后火灾方面的准确性和可靠性。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding inter-farm inequalities in extreme weather event impacts: Insights from the Dutch agricultural sector 了解极端天气事件影响中农场间的不平等：荷兰农业部门的启示

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104856

As a result of global climate change, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense. Susceptibility to extreme weather events (EWEs) is high in the agricultural sector, as these extremes can cause a decline in yields and revenue for farmers. To provide insight into ways to reduce the impacts of EWEs, this study assessed which factors explain the differences in the impacts of past weather extremes between Dutch arable farms. A survey was conducted among potato and onion farmers in the Netherlands to collect information on the past impacts of EWEs between 2018 and 2022 and the vulnerability of farmers (N = 81). The survey results showed that EWEs have already had a strong effect on farm revenues, but the extent of the impacts varied among farms. By coupling the survey data to meteorological data on EWEs, it was found that dry summers, wet fields during harvest and plowing, and warm winters were the extremes that best explained the more detrimental impacts of extreme weather amongst respondents. Additionally, differences in the physical and social vulnerability of farmers played a significant role in the observed inter-farm inequalities in impacts. Farm practices that reduce physical vulnerability are frequently inaccessible to smaller-scale or younger farmers. Further research is needed to understand the access barriers faced by these farmers. Further, future research and policies targeting the Dutch agricultural sector should no longer ignore social vulnerability factors to avoid exacerbating inter-farm inequalities, as the impacts of EWEs increase due to climate change.

由于全球气候变化，极端天气事件越来越频繁，强度也越来越大。农业部门对极端天气事件（EWEs）的易感性很高，因为这些极端天气事件会导致农民减产减收。为了深入了解减少极端天气事件影响的方法，本研究评估了哪些因素可以解释过去极端天气事件对荷兰耕地影响的差异。在荷兰的马铃薯和洋葱种植农中开展了一项调查，以收集有关 2018 年至 2022 年间 EWE 过去的影响以及农户脆弱性的信息（N = 81）。调查结果显示，EWE 已经对农场收入产生了很大影响，但影响程度因农场而异。通过将调查数据与有关 EWE 的气象数据相结合，发现干燥的夏季、收获和犁耕期间潮湿的田地以及温暖的冬季是最能解释极端天气对受访者造成更多不利影响的极端情况。此外，农民在身体和社会脆弱性方面的差异也是造成农场间影响不平等的重要原因。规模较小或较年轻的农民往往无法采用可降低身体脆弱性的农业措施。需要开展进一步研究，以了解这些农民面临的获取障碍。此外，未来针对荷兰农业部门的研究和政策不应再忽视社会脆弱性因素，以避免加剧农场间的不平等，因为气候变化会加剧EWE的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Harnessing text information for enhanced hurricane resilience and public engagement: Unveiling disaster perspectives through social media 利用文本信息加强飓风复原力和公众参与：通过社交媒体揭示灾难视角

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104849

The recent disaster by hurricane Otis in Acapulco, Mexico, exemplifies how natural disasters, particularly hurricanes, can often arrive with a force that defies prediction despite technological advancements. Their impact, coupled with secondary disasters, underscores the urgency for efficient preemptive measures. Resilience research in the face of such calamities necessitates the creation of a safeguard before incurring irreversible losses. This research leverages big data, explicitly harnessing information obtained from social media about hurricanes, to bolster the efficacy of hurricane response efforts. The focus lies in amplifying the dissemination of adequate warnings and enhancing rescue operations. Concurrently, the research aims to delve into potential disaster rescue suggestions by tracking and analyzing high-interaction discussions on social media — X. This exploration seeks to unveil public focal points during hurricane disasters and identify valuable perspectives for future disaster response strategies. The research findings show that dynamic public discussions on X failed to adequately focus on crucial aspects such as hurricane rescue and warnings. Instead, certain discussions tended to target specific groups and individuals. By unveiling these trends, this research highlights the need to develop a nuanced understanding of interpreting and engaging with social media discussions during significant hurricane events.

最近，飓风奥蒂斯在墨西哥阿卡普尔科造成的灾害说明，尽管技术在不断进步，但自然灾害，特别是飓风，往往会以一种无法预测的力量降临。飓风的影响加上次生灾害，凸显了采取有效预防措施的紧迫性。面对此类灾害的抗灾能力研究，必须在造成不可挽回的损失之前建立保障措施。本研究利用大数据，明确利用从社交媒体获取的飓风信息，提高飓风应对工作的效率。重点在于扩大适当预警的传播范围并加强救援行动。与此同时，研究旨在通过跟踪和分析社交媒体 X 上的高互动讨论，深入探讨潜在的灾难救援建议。这项探索旨在揭示飓风灾害期间的公众焦点，并为未来的灾难应对策略确定有价值的观点。研究结果表明，X 上的动态公众讨论未能充分关注飓风救援和警报等关键方面。相反，某些讨论倾向于针对特定群体和个人。通过揭示这些趋势，本研究强调了在重大飓风事件期间对解读和参与社交媒体讨论形成细致入微的理解的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

Integrated emergency medical supply planning considering multiple supply channels in healthcare coalitions 考虑医疗联盟中多种供应渠道的综合紧急医疗供应规划

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104823

Emergency medical supplies are crucial for the successful disaster response of healthcare coalitions. In practice, a healthcare coalition can obtain emergency medical supplies from three channels, i.e., supply pre-positioning, contracted reserve and emergency procurement, which, however, are not planned integrally in the literature. To fill the research gap, this study proposes a two-stage stochastic programming model for integrated emergency medical supply planning considering multiple supply channels in healthcare coalitions. In the first stage before disasters, decisions on emergency medical supply pre-positioning and signing of two types of medical supply procurement contracts are determined. In the second stage after disasters, decisions of emergency supply procurement, contract implementation, and supply transshipment are optimized based on the first-stage decisions and the realized uncertain disaster impacts. To show the effectiveness of our model and obtain managerial insight, we develop four comparison models and conduct a case study on the healthcare coalition of West China Hospital in China. This study highlights the great benefits of supplementing the pre-positioning of emergency medical supplies with multi-type contracted reserve in healthcare coalitions and emphasizes the importance of strengthening cooperation with suppliers and encouraging all member hospitals to implement the contracted reserve.

紧急医疗物资是医疗联盟成功应对灾难的关键。在实践中，医疗联盟可以从三个渠道获得紧急医疗物资，即物资预置、合同储备和紧急采购。为了填补这一研究空白，本研究提出了一个考虑到医疗联盟多种供应渠道的两阶段随机规划模型，用于综合应急医疗供应规划。在灾害发生前的第一阶段，确定紧急医疗供应预置和签订两种医疗供应采购合同的决策。在灾后的第二阶段，根据第一阶段的决策和已实现的不确定灾害影响，优化应急供应采购、合同执行和供应转运的决策。为了展示模型的有效性并获得管理启示，我们开发了四个比较模型，并对中国华西医院的医疗联盟进行了案例研究。本研究强调了在医疗联盟中以多类型合同储备补充应急医疗物资预置的巨大益处，并强调了加强与供应商合作并鼓励所有成员医院实施合同储备的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Hail hazard modeling with uncertainty analysis and roof damage estimation of residential buildings in North America 带不确定性分析的冰雹灾害建模和北美住宅建筑屋顶损坏估算

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104853

This research presents a statistical approach for hail risk modeling that incorporates the uncertainties of hail model prediction to provide insight into assessing the roof damage of a residential house in hail events. By quantifying the inherent uncertainties in evaluating hailstorm characteristics, this study extends the current existing hail models. The hail data are sourced from the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) in the U.S. In the modeling process, the largest hail diameter reported in the CoCoRaHS database serves as a primary input variable to estimate the number of observations for the largest hail diameter, hailstorm duration, and hit rate. The assessment of hail risk in this study focuses on the probability of hail damage and resultant repair costs for five types of roofs in North America (unrated roof and impact-resistant roofs with UL 2218 rating classes 1 to 4). The probability of hail damage is calculated as the failure probability by integrating all individual hailstone hits having variable diameters during a hailstorm with fragility curves, which estimate the probability that hailstones will fracture asphalt shingles (allowing water infiltration) or that they dislodge enough granules to cause visible damage requiring replacement for aesthetic reasons. The results reveal that an impact-resistant roof (impact-resistant rating classes 1 to 4) is associated with lower hail risks, with 60 % to 98 % reduction on average compared to unrated roofs. This study provides a comprehensive uncertainty modeling approach for hail hazard and risk, enabling better-informed decision-making and risk management strategies.

本研究提出了一种冰雹风险建模的统计方法，该方法结合了冰雹模型预测的不确定性，为评估冰雹事件中住宅屋顶的损坏情况提供了见解。通过量化冰雹特征评估中固有的不确定性，本研究扩展了现有的冰雹模型。在建模过程中，CoCoRaHS 数据库中报告的最大冰雹直径作为主要输入变量，用于估算最大冰雹直径、冰雹持续时间和命中率的观测值数量。本研究对冰雹风险的评估主要针对北美五种类型的屋顶（未分级屋顶和 UL 2218 分级 1 至 4 级的抗冲击屋顶）的冰雹损坏概率和由此产生的维修成本。冰雹损坏的概率是通过将冰雹暴雨中直径不等的所有单个冰雹击打与脆性曲线整合计算得出的，脆性曲线估计了冰雹击碎沥青瓦（使水渗入）或使足够多的颗粒脱落造成明显损坏的概率，出于美观原因需要更换。研究结果表明，抗冲击屋顶（抗冲击等级 1 至 4 级）可降低冰雹风险，与未评级屋顶相比，平均降低 60% 至 98%。这项研究为冰雹危害和风险提供了一种全面的不确定性建模方法，使人们能够做出更明智的决策并制定风险管理战略。

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引用次数: 0

A holistic approach to salinity intrusion vulnerability assessment using geospatial technologies: An application for mekong delta of vietnam 利用地理空间技术对盐分入侵脆弱性进行整体评估：在越南湄公河三角洲的应用

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104854

Saltwater intrusion is a critical natural hazard impacting millions of lives globally, particularly in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. This study presents a comprehensive approach to assessing saltwater intrusion vulnerability, combining hazard, exposure/sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We developed a salinity intrusion hazard map using data from 68 monitoring stations and 156 prevention culverts collected on February 23, 2020. Twenty-eight indicators representing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were standardized and weighted using the Iyengar-Sudarshan method. Our analysis revealed that 15.74 % of the study area, particularly Mo Cay Bac and Mo Cay Nam districts in Ben Tre province and Dam Doi district in Ca Mau province, exhibits very high vulnerability to saltwater intrusion. These findings provide critical insights for designing effective saltwater intrusion warning systems and implementing targeted disaster risk management strategies in the Mekong Delta. The approach and results are also applicable to similar coastal deltas and regions worldwide, offering a valuable framework for mitigating saltwater intrusion impacts.

盐水入侵是一种严重的自然灾害，影响着全球数百万人的生活，尤其是越南湄公河三角洲地区。本研究提出了一种综合评估盐水入侵脆弱性的方法，将危害、暴露/敏感性和适应能力结合在一起。我们利用 2020 年 2 月 23 日收集的 68 个监测站和 156 个预防涵洞的数据绘制了盐水入侵危害图。代表暴露、敏感性和适应能力的 28 个指标采用艾扬格-苏达山方法进行了标准化和加权。我们的分析表明，15.74% 的研究区域，尤其是檳椥省的 Mo Cay Bac 和 Mo Cay Nam 县以及金瓯省的 Dam Doi 县，非常容易受到盐水入侵的影响。这些发现为在湄公河三角洲设计有效的盐水入侵预警系统和实施有针对性的灾害风险管理战略提供了重要启示。这些方法和结果也适用于全球类似的沿海三角洲和地区，为减轻盐水入侵的影响提供了宝贵的框架。

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引用次数: 0

Co-design as participation: Creating meaningful pathways for collaboration in flood risk adaptation in Ohkay Owingeh Pueblo 共同设计即参与：在 Ohkay Owingeh Pueblo 创造有意义的洪水风险适应合作途径

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104843

Considering the detrimental effects caused by wildfires in New Mexico, there is a pressing need for the development of innovative hazard adaptation and mitigation strategies. Community-based approaches in hazard response have the potential to harness the power of co-design and the incorporation of traditional knowledge to help make conventional research and design process considerably less extractive. In this paper, we explore the elements of community based, bottom-up approaches that can support successful outcomes, in contrast to centralized top-down approaches. By offering a critical perspective of the idea that projects defined as bottom-up are inherently more effective than those that are top-down, we aim to amend a common participatory design framework, the double-diamond design method, and present a community-engaged framework on flood risk adaptation with the co-design of an environmental data dashboard to address this gap. This can be mitigated by employing a more human-centered design approach as a baseline, and further amending it to center community. We employed a series of workshops in Ohkay Owingeh Pueblo, in New Mexico, to integrate local knowledge. The goal of these workshops was to design an environmental data dashboard that would eventually serve as a point of information gathering and dissemination for the Pueblo. The workshops featured activities that worked to decolonize the process of co-design and put the Pueblo's needs at the center of the dashboard design process. The workshops allowed for participation in a variety of modalities – visual, verbal, auditory – giving community members space to lead and participate in many different formats.

考虑到野火在新墨西哥州造成的有害影响，迫切需要制定创新的灾害适应和缓解战略。以社区为基础的灾害应对方法有可能利用共同设计和传统知识的力量，帮助大大减少传统研究和设计过程中的榨取。在本文中，我们将探讨以社区为基础、自下而上的方法与自上而下的集中式方法相比，哪些因素可以支持成功的结果。通过对 "自下而上 "的项目比 "自上而下 "的项目更有效这一观点的批判，我们旨在修正一个常见的参与式设计框架--双钻设计法，并提出一个社区参与的洪水风险适应框架，通过共同设计一个环境数据仪表盘来弥补这一不足。通过采用更加以人为本的设计方法作为基线，并以社区为中心进行进一步修正，可以缓解这一问题。我们在新墨西哥州的 Ohkay Owingeh Pueblo 举办了一系列研讨会，以整合当地知识。这些研讨会的目标是设计一个环境数据仪表盘，最终作为普韦布洛的信息收集和传播点。研讨会的特色活动是使共同设计过程非殖民化，并将普韦布洛的需求置于仪表板设计过程的中心。研讨会允许以各种方式参与--视觉的、口头的、听觉的--为社区成员提供了领导和以多种不同形式参与的空间。

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引用次数: 0

The changing social vulnerability in Shanghai during 2000–2020 and its implications for risk management 2000-2020 年间上海社会脆弱性的变化及其对风险管理的影响

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104852

Risk dynamics are driven not only by changes in hazard and exposure, but also the changing social vulnerability along with urban development, aging, renewal, and adaptation planning. However, there has been limited research on the spatial and temporal changes in social vulnerability, particularly at a fine scale in urban settings. To bridge this gap, our study developed a framework to consistently evaluate social vulnerability. Using Shanghai as a case study, the framework was applied to assess the social vulnerability at a township level for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. The results revealed that the social vulnerability index decreased in 99.56 % of the townships in Shanghai from 2000 to 2020. However, there were notable variations among the four primary sub-indexes as demographic sub-index, particularly regarding an aging population, displayed a strong increase aggravating social vulnerability, in contrast to an overall decline trend of the other three sub-indexes of educational, residential, and economic. Therefore, the social vulnerability reduced along with socioeconomic development while an aging society posed a new challenge. Furthermore, 32 townships were identified with a notable rising demographic sub-index, a high flood hazard, and a low capability of disaster reliefs, demonstrating social vulnerability should be comprehensively addressed aligning with other challenges. The study highlighted the need to consider the dynamics of social vulnerability in disaster risk reduction strategies and the importance of addressing emerging challenges, such as an aging population, in urban vulnerability.

风险动态不仅受灾害和风险暴露变化的驱动，还受随着城市发展、老龄化、重建和适应规划而不断变化的社会脆弱性的驱动。然而，关于社会脆弱性的空间和时间变化，尤其是城市环境中精细尺度的社会脆弱性的研究还很有限。为了弥补这一差距，我们的研究开发了一个框架，用于持续评估社会脆弱性。我们以上海为例，应用该框架评估了 2000 年、2010 年和 2020 年乡镇一级的社会脆弱性。结果显示，从 2000 年到 2020 年，上海 99.56% 的乡镇的社会脆弱性指数有所下降。然而，四个主要分指数之间存在着明显的差异，人口分指数，尤其是人口老龄化方面的分指数显示出强烈的上升趋势，加剧了社会脆弱性，与之形成鲜明对比的是教育、居住和经济三个分指数的整体下降趋势。因此，社会脆弱性随着社会经济的发展而降低，而老龄化社会则带来了新的挑战。此外，有 32 个乡镇的人口分指数显著上升，洪水灾害风险高，救灾能力低，这表明社会脆弱性应与其他挑战一起综合解决。这项研究强调了在减少灾害风险战略中考虑社会脆弱性动态的必要性，以及应对人口老龄化等城市脆弱性新挑战的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Exposure to the earthquake with a child with autism: A qualitative study on parenting experiences 与自闭症儿童一起经历地震：关于父母经验的定性研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104850

For parents, experiencing disasters such as earthquakes with a child with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) involves various difficulties and increases vulnerability. But despite its importance for both children with ASD and their parents, the literature does not provide any explanation for the parenting experiences of parents with children with ASD in an earthquake. The aim of this study is to explore the parenting experiences of parents who experienced the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, the second most fatal earthquake in the world, with their children with ASD. In this study, which was conducted with a qualitative phenomenology design, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 18 parents (16 mothers, 2 fathers) living in eleven earthquake-affected cities and analyzed by qualitative content analysis. The findings of the study revealed the themes of (a) the effects of the earthquake on life, (b) the issues that are difficult to cope with, (c) the effects of the earthquake on parenting a child with ASD, and (d) the requirements on the earthquake. As a result, it is seen that parents experienced more difficulties in the earthquake due to the autism of their children. These difficulties wear out the parents, and ultimately, these difficulties reflect negatively on the parent-child relationship. The findings are discussed in detail in the text.

对于父母来说，带着患有自闭症谱系障碍（ASD）的儿童经历地震等灾难会遇到各种困难，并增加他们的脆弱性。然而，尽管地震对自闭症谱系障碍儿童及其父母都很重要，但文献却没有对地震中自闭症谱系障碍儿童父母的养育经验提供任何解释。本研究旨在探讨经历过 2023 年卡赫拉曼马拉什（Kahramanmaraş）地震（世界上伤亡人数第二多的地震）的父母对患有自闭症儿童的养育经验。本研究采用定性现象学设计，对居住在 11 个受地震影响城市的 18 位父母（16 位母亲，2 位父亲）进行了半结构化访谈，并通过定性内容分析进行了分析。研究结果揭示了以下主题：（a）地震对生活的影响；（b）难以应对的问题；（c）地震对养育自闭症儿童的影响；（d）对地震的要求。结果显示，由于孩子患有自闭症，父母在地震中遇到了更多困难。这些困难使父母疲惫不堪，最终对亲子关系产生负面影响。文中将对研究结果进行详细讨论。

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引用次数: 0

Agent-based modelling of evacuation scenarios for a landslide-generated tsunami in Milford Sound, New Zealand 新西兰米尔福德湾山体滑坡引发海啸的疏散方案代理建模

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104847

Agent-based modelling is a useful tool for evacuation planning as it can increase understanding of the factors affecting potential evacuation outcomes. In New Zealand, Milford Sound has been shown to have a high risk from landslide-generated tsunami, with an estimated 1-in-1000-year wave runup of ∼17 m arriving on shore within 2–7 min. With an annual average of >1500 people visiting a day, there is potential for widespread loss of life. However, the number of people present varies substantially with time of day and season, yet how this affects the ability to evacuate remains unknown. This research developed an agent-based model to understand how many people can be safely evacuated in Milford Sound and explored how the number of people initially exposed affected the evacuation outcome alongside the effect of potential changes to evacuation messaging. Assuming a 17 m wave, the results suggest that currently no one can safely evacuate before the shortest wave arrival time regardless of the number of people present. Altering evacuation messaging results in minimal gains, with only ∼5 % of the exposed population reaching safety in time. This work demonstrates the importance of evacuation modelling for understanding risk in isolated tourism destinations where the population exposure can fluctuate dramatically across multiple timescales. Accounting for changing population exposure is essential to understand whether evacuation is a suitable risk treatment and can provide valuable information for determining safe levels of population exposure in locations with high hazard but limited evacuation options.

基于代理的建模是疏散规划的一个有用工具，因为它可以增加对影响潜在疏散结果的因素的了解。在新西兰，米尔福德峡湾已被证明具有山体滑坡引发海啸的高风险，据估计，1000 年一遇的 17 米高的海浪会在 2-7 分钟内到达海岸。每年平均每天有 1500 人到访，因此有可能造成大范围的人员伤亡。然而，随着时间和季节的变化，出现的人数也大不相同，但这对疏散能力有何影响仍是未知数。这项研究开发了一个基于代理的模型，以了解在米尔福德峡湾有多少人可以安全撤离，并探讨了最初暴露在海浪中的人数对撤离结果的影响，以及撤离信息的潜在变化所产生的影响。假设海浪为 17 米，结果表明，目前无论有多少人，都无法在最短海浪到达时间之前安全撤离。改变疏散信息的效果微乎其微，只有 5% 的受影响人群能及时到达安全地带。这项研究表明，疏散模型对于了解孤立旅游景点的风险非常重要，因为在这些旅游景点，人口暴露可能会在多个时间尺度上发生剧烈波动。要了解疏散是否是一种合适的风险处理方法，就必须考虑到不断变化的人口暴露情况，这可以为确定高风险但疏散选择有限的地点的人口暴露安全水平提供有价值的信息。

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引用次数: 0