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Determining the critical factors for realising successful post-disaster reconstruction projects in the Caribbean 确定加勒比地区成功实施灾后重建项目的关键因素
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104877
Business as usual project management practice may not be applicable in the recovery of the built environment following a disaster. Unfortunately, little research has been undertaken to understand the nature of post-disaster recovery projects and the requirements for their success in the Caribbean. The Caribbean islands' exposure and susceptibility to natural hazards make it essential to understand what constitutes successful post-disaster reconstruction. By drawing on end-users’ perspectives in four Caribbean islands (Antigua, Dominica, Grenada, St. Vincent) through a quantitative survey and factor analysis, this paper identifies critical factors that determine successful outcomes with post-disaster Caribbean recovery projects. The factor analysis results from the survey responses on 24 empirical success factors suggests four composite Caribbean specific critical success factors, namely, 1) effective management of project knowledge, 2) environment and ecosystem stewardship, 3) stakeholder engagements at multiple levels, and 4) efficient management of financial, social and human resources. The findings from this research can assist with minimising the recurring post-disaster reconstruction projects, project financing donors and managers with an understanding of the issues that matter most to the region success, and realising the end-users’ (the beneficiaries) expectations. Mainstreaming these factors into project planning and execution, and adopting resilience-oriented project management practices, augers well for managing Caribbean disaster reconstruction projects for greater success.
一切照旧的项目管理做法可能不适用于灾后建筑环境的恢复。遗憾的是,对加勒比地区灾后恢复项目的性质及其成功的要求了解甚少。加勒比群岛暴露在自然灾害中,易受自然灾害的影响,因此必须了解什么是成功的灾后重建。本文通过定量调查和因素分析,从加勒比海四个岛屿(安提瓜、多米尼克、格林纳达、圣文森特)最终用户的角度出发,确定了决定加勒比海灾后恢复项目取得成功的关键因素。通过对 24 个经验性成功因素的调查回复进行因素分析,得出了四个综合的加勒比海特定关键成功因素,即 1) 项目知识的有效管理;2) 环境和生态系统管理;3) 多层次的利益相关者参与;以及 4) 财务、社会和人力资源的有效管理。本研究的结论有助于最大限度地减少灾后重建项目的重复性,使项目资助方和管理者了解对该地区成功最重要的问题,并实现最终用户(受益人)的期望。将这些因素纳入项目规划和执行的主流,并采用以抗灾能力为导向的项目管理方法,将有助于加勒比地区灾后重建项目的管理取得更大的成功。
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引用次数: 0
Vietnamese migrants’ engagement in disaster risk reduction: The relevance of social capital 越南移民参与减少灾害风险:社会资本的相关性
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104879
Researchers commonly employ the concept of social capital to examine how people engage with disaster risk reduction. This approach has generated useful knowledge to improve the effectiveness of disaster risk reduction for the general population. However, disaster risk reduction knowledge and practices designed for the general population might not speak to Vietnamese migrants because they do not reflect Vietnamese cultural practices and norms. This paper contributes to the literature by presenting findings from a narrative inquiry into Vietnamese migrants’ experiences of disaster risk reduction in the Wellington Region, Aotearoa New Zealand. The participants’ narratives suggest that Vietnamese migrants employ bonding and bridging social capital to gain knowledge about natural hazards and disaster risk reduction. Their disaster risk reduction reflects certain socio-cultural norms and values as well as family and gender dynamics among Vietnamese migrants. The findings also indicate that, for Vietnamese migrants who do not have well-established social networks, social capital-based disaster risk reduction might be less effective.
研究人员通常采用社会资本的概念来研究人们如何参与减少灾害风险的活动。这种方法产生了有用的知识,提高了为普通民众减少灾害风险的效果。然而,为普通民众设计的减灾知识和实践可能并不适合越南移民,因为它们并不反映越南的文化习俗和规范。本文通过对新西兰奥特亚罗瓦惠灵顿地区越南移民的减灾经验进行叙事调查,为相关文献做出了贡献。从参与者的叙述中可以看出,越南移民利用纽带和桥梁社会资本来获取有关自然灾害和减少灾害风险的知识。他们减少灾害风险的行为反映了越南移民的某些社会文化规范和价值观,以及家庭和性别动态。研究结果还表明,对于那些没有完善社会网络的越南移民来说,基于社会资本的减灾效果可能较差。
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引用次数: 0
Safety hazard inspection system during typhoon warning period to improve the disaster resistance ability of road and bridge construction site 台风预警期安全隐患排查制度,提高路桥施工现场抗灾能力
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104876
Typhoons are frequent in coastal cities, and the vulnerability of road and bridge construction sites is high, but existing studies have not focused on the safety management of road and bridge construction sites under typhoon disasters. Traditional manual safety inspections suffer from problems such as low efficiency, high subjectivity, and incomplete coverage. Therefore, this study aims to develop an intelligent safety management system for road and bridge construction sites during the typhoon warning period, in order to achieve rapid and automated typhoon prevention and control. In this study, the automatic identification algorithm of potential safety hazards was developed based on the MATLAB platform, and then the system design of the MATLAB GUI was carried out, which ultimately forms the automatic safety hazard inspection and measure enquiry system during the typhoon warning period for road and bridge construction sites (RBS-TY). The system can realize the detection of vertical deformation, safety distance and safety height by using the point cloud data of the object to be measured. According to the identified safety hazards, it will automatically retrieve the database of typhoon safety measures in the road and bridge construction site and provide the countermeasures in the GUI interface. Experimentally verified results show that this system can assist safety management personnel to quickly guide typhoon prevention and control work during the 24-h typhoon warning period, improve the efficiency of safety management, and help to promote the development of intelligent typhoon emergency response technology at road and bridge construction sites.
沿海城市台风频发,道路桥梁施工现场易受台风影响,但现有研究并未关注台风灾害下道路桥梁施工现场的安全管理。传统的人工安全检查存在效率低、主观性强、覆盖面不全等问题。因此,本研究旨在开发台风预警期间路桥施工现场的智能安全管理系统,以实现快速、自动化的台风防控。本研究基于 MATLAB 平台开发了安全隐患自动识别算法,然后进行了 MATLAB GUI 的系统设计,最终形成了路桥施工现场台风预警期间安全隐患自动排查与措施查询系统(RBS-TY)。该系统可利用待测物体的点云数据实现垂直变形、安全距离和安全高度的检测。根据识别出的安全隐患,系统将自动检索路桥施工现场的台风安全措施数据库,并在图形用户界面中提供应对措施。实验验证结果表明,该系统可协助安全管理人员在 24 小时台风预警期间快速指导台风防控工作,提高安全管理效率,有助于推动路桥施工现场智能化台风应急技术的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring residents’ expectations and designers’ perspectives towards post-earthquake permanent housing: A case study in Antakya 探索居民对震后永久性住房的期望和设计师的观点:安塔基亚案例研究
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104873
Post-disaster permanent housing is the backbone of the recovery efforts after destructive events. It holds great potential to adopt new technological innovations and to provide improved conditions for these everyday spaces. However, previous investigations suggest that these housing projects lack consideration of the inhabitants' expectations, needs, and values due to environmental, cultural, and social factors, resulting in a dissatisfactory built environment. Following the Kahramanmaraş earthquake on February 6, 2023, this research aims to explore the expectations of affected residents in the historic district of Antakya. We expect to contribute to decision-makers, designers, and the technology industry to develop more user-centered housing recovery efforts in the aftermath of these devastating events. The findings revealed four implications from the expectations for post-earthquake homes: (1) designing for togetherness, (2) valuing community efforts and traditional work, (3) including productional activities, and lastly, (4) preserving and reminiscing heritage values. Additionally, we discussed these four implications with multi-disciplinary designers to expand the discussion space for designing post-earthquake permanent homes in Antakya. Overall, these implications suggest some future architectural changes in homes as their residents' expectations, including the creation of new heritage and production spaces using digital, physical, and mixed reality technologies, as well as the emergence of new social gathering spaces. By conducting a case study in Antakya, our research highlights the potential for the further development of post-disaster permanent homes that not only provide shelter and safety but also enhance the overall quality of life for the residents, both for Antakya and the other relevant cases worldwide.
灾后永久性住房是破坏性事件后恢复工作的支柱。它在采用新技术创新和为这些日常空间提供更好的条件方面具有巨大潜力。然而,以往的调查表明,由于环境、文化和社会因素,这些住房项目缺乏对居民期望、需求和价值观的考虑,导致建筑环境不尽人意。2023 年 2 月 6 日发生卡赫拉曼马拉什地震后,本研究旨在探讨安塔基亚历史街区受影响居民的期望。我们希望能为决策者、设计师和技术行业做出贡献,在这些破坏性事件发生后,开发出更多以用户为中心的住房恢复工作。研究结果揭示了对震后住宅期望的四点影响:(1) 为团结而设计,(2) 重视社区努力和传统工作,(3) 包括生产活动,最后,(4) 保护和缅怀遗产价值。此外,我们还与多学科设计师讨论了这四点启示,以拓展安塔基亚震后永久性住宅设计的讨论空间。总之,这些影响表明,未来的住宅建筑将按照居民的期望发生一些变化,包括利用数字、物理和混合现实技术创造新的遗产和生产空间,以及出现新的社交聚会空间。通过在安塔基亚开展案例研究,我们的研究强调了进一步开发灾后永久性住宅的潜力,这些住宅不仅能提供庇护所和安全,还能提高居民的整体生活质量,无论是在安塔基亚还是在全球其他相关案例中都是如此。
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引用次数: 0
Psychological preparedness in disaster management: A survey of leaders in Saudi Arabia's emergency operation centers 灾害管理中的心理准备:对沙特阿拉伯紧急行动中心领导的调查
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104871
This study assesses perceptions of psychological preparedness among leaders in Emergency Operation Centers (EOCs) across Saudi Arabia. Effective disaster management requires managing stress, maintaining emotional stability, and adapting to rapid changes. A descriptive survey was conducted in 2024 with 110 leaders from various Health regions and the National Health EOC, achieving an 86.4 % response rate. Participants completed a structured questionnaire assessing their confidence in managing stress, the effectiveness of stress-relief techniques, and emotional stability. Results indicated high confidence in stress management (mean score 4.19, SD = 0.88) and emotional stability (mean score 4.27, SD = 0.80), along with moderately high ratings for the effectiveness of stress-relief techniques (mean score 3.64, SD = 0.99). Only 30.53 % had received formal training on psychological preparedness, while 96.84 % expressed a need for additional training. The study found significant correlations between confidence, emotional stability, and the regular review of coping strategies. These results highlight the critical need for comprehensive training programs to improve the psychological preparedness of disaster management personnel.
本研究评估了沙特阿拉伯各地紧急行动中心(EOC)领导对心理准备的看法。有效的灾难管理需要管理压力、保持情绪稳定并适应快速变化。研究于 2024 年对来自不同卫生区域和国家卫生应急行动中心的 110 名领导进行了描述性调查,获得了 86.4% 的回复率。参与者填写了一份结构化问卷,评估他们在管理压力方面的信心、减压技巧的有效性以及情绪稳定性。结果显示,他们对压力管理的信心较高(平均分 4.19,标准差 = 0.88),情绪稳定(平均分 4.27,标准差 = 0.80),对减压技巧的效果评价中等偏上(平均分 3.64,标准差 = 0.99)。只有 30.53% 的人接受过正规的心理准备培训,而 96.84% 的人表示需要更多培训。研究发现,自信、情绪稳定和定期回顾应对策略之间存在明显的相关性。这些结果突出表明,迫切需要制定全面的培训计划,以提高灾害管理人员的心理准备能力。
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引用次数: 0
Future climate risks to world cultural heritage sites in Spain: A systematic analysis based on shared socioeconomic pathways 西班牙世界文化遗产地未来面临的气候风险:基于共同社会经济路径的系统分析
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104855
Rapidly advancing anthropogenic climate change is a severe threat to cultural heritage worldwide. World cultural heritage sites (WCHS) are recognized by UNESCO as having outstanding international importance. Identifying and quantifying the impacts of climate change on the WCHS is therefore crucial for the development of long-term protection policies. Spain, the subject of the present study, is one of the most important world heritage countries in terms of the number of sites and is highly vulnerable to climate change under global scenarios.
This study identified the main climate risks faced by Spain's WCHS on the basis of future climate data from four shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios under the most recent version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the most up-to-date global climate model available. Risks include sea level rise and coastal flooding, fire risk and drought risk, hydrodynamic scouring and corrosion, and biodegradation. Some WCHS are located in regions that are projected to experience surface warming exceeding the global average by 2100 under the SSP5--8.5 scenario, with a doubling of extreme climate risk (a gradient from scenarios SSP1--2.6, SSP2--4.5, SSP3--7.0 to SSP5--8.5). Under this shared socioeconomic pathway, three Spanish WCHS are at risk of being submerged by seawater by 2100. On the basis of historical data, we identified greater potential fire risk in regions where Spain's WCHS is located than in other regions in Europe, with eight WCHS experiencing weather-induced fire hazards exceeding 95 %. Considering the combination of LUC types within the Spanish WCHS, we identified two WCHS that exemplify this risk: 1) the archaeological site of Atapuerca, which is primarily occupied by broad-leaved forest, and 2) the Caliphate city of Medina Azahara, which is surrounded by natural grasslands, emphasizing the need for fire prevention in woodland and grassland areas. Furthermore, we quantified the hydrodynamic scouring risk, corrosion and biodegradation risk, and drought risk in the entire region where Spain's WCHS are located from 2081 to 2100 and clustered them on the basis of risk characteristics. We found that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the overall pattern of climate risk faced by Spain's WCHS did not change significantly from the present, but there were clear changes under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. We also identified that Spain's WCHS listings are at greater risk from different climate risks. This study predicts the potential impact of climate change on Spain's WCHS, emphasizing the crucial role of “carbon neutrality” in reducing various climate risks to Spain's WCHS and providing guidance for the development of future long-term protection policies.
快速发展的人为气候变化严重威胁着全世界的文化遗产。世界文化遗产地(WCHS)被联合国教科文组织认定为具有突出的国际重要性。因此,识别和量化气候变化对世界文化遗产的影响对于制定长期保护政策至关重要。本研究的对象国西班牙是世界遗产数量最多的国家之一,在全球气候变化的情况下极易受到影响。本研究根据现有最新全球气候模型 "耦合模型相互比较项目(CMIP6)"最新版本下的四种共享社会经济路径(SSP)情景的未来气候数据,确定了西班牙世界遗产面临的主要气候风险。风险包括海平面上升和沿海洪水、火灾风险和干旱风险、流体动力冲刷和腐蚀以及生物降解。在 SSP5--8.5 情景下,预计到 2100 年,一些世界遗产中心所在区域的地表升温将超过全球平均水平,极端气候风险将增加一倍(从 SSP1--2.6、SSP2--4.5、SSP3--7.0 到 SSP5--8.5 情景的梯度)。在这一共同的社会经济路径下,到 2100 年,西班牙的三个世界遗产将面临被海水淹没的风险。根据历史数据,我们发现西班牙世界遗产中心所在地区的潜在火灾风险高于欧洲其他地区,其中有 8 个世界遗产中心的天气引起的火灾危险超过 95%。考虑到西班牙世界遗产中心内各种土地利用变化类型的组合,我们发现有两个世界遗产中心体现了这种风险:1)阿塔普尔卡考古遗址,该遗址主要被阔叶林占据;2)哈里发城市麦地那-阿扎哈拉,该城市周围是天然草地,强调了在林地和草地地区防火的必要性。此外,我们还量化了 2081 年至 2100 年西班牙水利工程所在整个地区的水力冲刷风险、腐蚀和生物降解风险以及干旱风险,并根据风险特征对其进行了分组。我们发现,在 SSP1-2.6 情景下,西班牙水处理中心所面临的气候风险总体模式与目前相比没有显著变化,但在 SSP5-8.5 情景下则有明显变化。我们还发现,西班牙世界遗产名录面临的不同气候风险更大。本研究预测了气候变化对西班牙世界遗产中心的潜在影响,强调了 "碳中和 "在降低西班牙世界遗产中心面临的各种气候风险方面的关键作用,并为制定未来的长期保护政策提供了指导。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing evacuation risks in prominent historical mosques: An integrated quantitative and qualitative approach via the HM-ERI framework 评估著名历史清真寺的疏散风险:采用 HM-ERI 框架的定量和定性综合方法
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104866
Historical mosques, with their unique architectural features and high occupant densities, pose distinct challenges for safe and efficient evacuation. This study introduces the Historical Mosque Evacuation Risk Index (HM-ERI), a novel and comprehensive framework specifically designed to assess evacuation risks in these culturally significant structures. The HM-ERI model integrates three quantitative criteria derived from agent-based simulations and seventeen qualitative criteria assessed through on-site evaluations, generating two dimensionless risk scores: HM-ERIQN (quantitative risk) and HM-ERIQL (qualitative risk).

Analysis

of 12 prominent 15th and 16th century mosques in Turkey revealed a spectrum of evacuation risk levels. The mosques' HM-ERIQN values ranged from 0.27 (low risk) to 0.80 (high risk) in the range of 0–1, indicating variations in potential congestion and evacuation efficiency based on simulated total evacuation times ranging from 2 min 46.3 s to 8 min 18.5 s. HM-ERIQL values, reflecting the severity of qualitative factors on a 0–1 scale such as the lack of alternative exits, improper placement of shoe racks, complex building layouts, and limited emergency preparedness, fell between 0.46 and 0.73, indicating moderate to high risks.
By integrating expert judgment and utilizing data from both simulations and on-site observations, the HM-ERI framework provides a practical tool for identifying high-risk historical mosques and informing targeted interventions to enhance evacuation safety. This research contributes to developing enhanced evacuation standards for these culturally significant structures, enabling improved safety evaluations and guiding effective preservation strategies that prioritize human life and cultural heritage.
历史悠久的清真寺具有独特的建筑特点和较高的居住密度,给安全高效的疏散工作带来了独特的挑战。本研究介绍了历史清真寺疏散风险指数(HM-ERI),这是一个新颖而全面的框架,专门用于评估这些具有重要文化意义的建筑的疏散风险。HM-ERI 模型综合了从基于代理的模拟中得出的三个定量标准和通过现场评估得出的十七个定性标准,产生了两个无量纲风险分数:对土耳其 12 座著名的 15 和 16 世纪清真寺的分析表明,这些清真寺的 HM-ERIQN (定量风险)和 HM-ERIQL (定性风险)具有不同的疏散风险等级。清真寺的 HM-ERIQN 值从 0.27(低风险)到 0.80(高风险)不等,范围在 0-1 之间,表明潜在的拥挤程度和疏散效率存在差异,模拟总疏散时间从 2 分 46.3 秒到 8 分 18.5 秒不等。HM-ERIQL 值反映了 0-1 级定性因素的严重程度,如缺乏替代出口、鞋架摆放不当、建筑布局复杂和应急准备有限等,范围在 0.46 到 0.73 之间,表明中等风险。HM-ERI 框架综合了专家的判断,并利用了模拟和现场观察的数据,为识别高风险的历史清真寺提供了一个实用工具,并为采取有针对性的干预措施以提高疏散安全提供了信息。这项研究有助于为这些具有重要文化意义的建筑制定更高的疏散标准,从而改进安全评估并指导有效的保护策略,将人的生命和文化遗产放在首位。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating flood early warning system and public preparedness and knowledge in urban and semi-urban areas of Johor, Malaysia: Challenges and opportunities 评估马来西亚柔佛州城市和半城市地区的洪水预警系统及公众准备情况和知识:挑战与机遇
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104870
Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) play a crucial role in mitigating the impacts of floods by providing timely information to the public, which is particularly important for flood-prone areas in the Malaysian State of Johor that have suffer significant damages and disruptions almost every year. This research presents an assessment into the current state of FEWS through expert interviews and consultations with the concerned department to understand the management and institutional status and challenges in employing FEWS. In addition, a total of 106 structured questionnaires were administered as part of the survey research to a sample of residents in urban Johor Bahru and semi-urban Kota Tinggi, two regions vulnerable to floods, to collect data on their level of preparedness and knowledge, and their perceived effectiveness of FEWS. The analysis revealed that 69.8 % of the respondents did not have any knowledge on the FEWS in their place, and 60.5 % respondents turn to social media to gain information on flood warning, occurrence and forecast. This study also evaluates the opportunity for the messaging application as an additional support system for FEWS. The research highlights and identifies the challenges and barriers to accessing and utilising FEWS. The study calls for the incorporation of messaging application, preferable WhatsApp to transmit early warnings to the end-users and to use their feedback in designing/redesigning the FEWS. The findings can inform policy and decision-making processes aimed at improving flood preparedness and response strategies, and contribute to the existing literature on FEWS in Malaysia and other similar regions.
洪水预警系统(FEWS)通过向公众提供及时的信息,在减轻洪水影响方面发挥着至关重要的作用,这对于马来西亚柔佛州的洪水易发地区尤为重要,因为该地区几乎每年都会遭受重大损失和破坏。本研究通过专家访谈和咨询相关部门的方式,对 FEWS 的现状进行了评估,以了解 FEWS 的管理和机构现状,以及在应用 FEWS 方面所面临的挑战。此外,作为调查研究的一部分,本研究还对新山市区和哥打丁宜半市区这两个易受洪水侵袭地区的居民进行了抽样调查,共发放了 106 份结构化问卷,以收集他们对 FEWS 的准备程度、知识水平和感知效果的数据。分析结果显示,69.8% 的受访者对其所在地区的 FEWS 一无所知,60.5% 的受访者通过社交媒体获取有关洪水预警、发生和预报的信息。本研究还评估了信息应用作为 FEWS 附加支持系统的机会。研究强调并确定了获取和利用 FEWS 所面临的挑战和障碍。研究呼吁采用信息应用程序(最好是 WhatsApp)向最终用户发送预警,并在设计/重新设计预警系统时利用他们的反馈。研究结果可为旨在改进洪水防备和应对策略的政策和决策过程提供信息,并为马来西亚和其他类似地区有关预警系统的现有文献做出贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Semantics-enriched spatiotemporal mapping of public risk perceptions for cultural heritage during radical events 对激进事件中文化遗产的公众风险认知进行语义丰富的时空映射
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104857
Cultural heritage, especially those inscribed on the UNESCO World Heritage List, is meant to be valued by mankind and protected for future generations. Triggered by radical and sometimes disastrous Heritage-Related Events (HREs), communities around the world are actively involved on social media to share their opinions and emotional attachments. This paper presents exploratory data analyses on a dataset collected from Twitter concerning HREs in World Heritage that triggered global concerns, with cases of the Notre Dame Paris fire and the Venice flood, both in 2019. The spatiotemporal patterns of tweeting behaviours of online communities before, during, and after the event demonstrate a clear distinction of activation levels caused by the HREs. The dominant emotions and topics of people during the online debate are detected and visualized with pre-trained deep-learning models and unsupervised clustering algorithms. Clear spatiotemporal dynamics can be observed from the data collected in both case studies, while each case also demonstrated its specific characteristics due to the different severity. The methodological framework proposed and the analytical outcomes obtained in this paper could be used both in urban studies to mine the public opinions about HREs and other urban events for reducing risks, and by the Geo-AI community to test spatiotemporal clustering algorithms.
文化遗产,尤其是列入联合国教科文组织《世界遗产名录》的文化遗产,应受到人类的珍视,并为子孙后代受到保护。激进的、有时是灾难性的遗产相关事件(HREs)引发了世界各地的社区积极参与社交媒体,分享他们的观点和情感。本文以 2019 年巴黎圣母院大火和威尼斯洪水为案例,对从 Twitter 收集到的引发全球关注的世界遗产相关遗产事件数据集进行了探索性数据分析。在线社区在事件发生前、发生期间和发生后的推特行为时空模式表明,人类活动事件所引起的激活程度有明显的区别。利用预先训练好的深度学习模型和无监督聚类算法,可以检测到网络辩论期间人们的主要情绪和话题,并将其可视化。从两个案例研究中收集到的数据可以观察到明显的时空动态变化,同时每个案例也因其严重程度不同而表现出各自的特点。本文提出的方法框架和获得的分析结果既可用于城市研究,以挖掘公众对 HRE 和其他城市事件的意见,从而降低风险,也可用于地理-人工智能社区,以测试时空聚类算法。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the construction and application of a community emergency capacity evaluation model based on a combined weighting-discrete Hopfield neural network 基于加权-离散 Hopfield 组合神经网络的社区应急能力评估模型的构建与应用研究
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104851
To accurately evaluate community emergency capability and solve the problems with the existing index system, which has been declared unreasonable with respect to components, unclear in meaning and unreliable in terms of empowerment results caused by a single algorithm, a triangle model of community safety and resilience is introduced to construct an emergency capability index system suitable for communities with frequent geological disasters in Yunnan Province. Additionally, a combined empowerment model is constructed to improve the accuracy of the empowerment results. First, according to the relevant information and the results of expert consultations and field investigations, the index system is determined. Second, three weighting methods, the G1-entropy weight, G1-CRITIC and G1-coefficient of variation, are used to calculate the index weight and perform a comparative analysis, after which the best weighting method is selected and combined with the discrete Hopfield neural network model to construct a weighting-evaluation model. Finally, the model is applied to evaluate the emergency capability of a community with frequent geological disasters in Yunnan Province. The results show that the index of monitoring and early warning ability of geological disasters is added, which makes the index more targeted, and thus, the result obtained using the G1-CRITIC combination weighting model is more accurate. The evaluation model constructed in this paper accurately evaluates community emergency capacity and is further popularized and applied in communities with frequent geological disasters in Yunnan Province.
为准确评价社区应急能力,解决现有指标体系存在的成分不合理、含义不清晰、单一算法导致赋权结果不可靠等问题,引入社区安全与抗灾能力三角模型,构建适合云南省地质灾害频发社区的应急能力指标体系。此外,为提高赋权结果的准确性,还构建了组合赋权模型。首先,根据相关资料以及专家咨询和实地调查的结果,确定指标体系。其次,采用 G1-熵权、G1-CRITIC 和 G1-变异系数三种加权方法计算指标权重并进行对比分析,然后选择最佳加权方法并与离散 Hopfield 神经网络模型相结合,构建加权评价模型。最后,将该模型应用于云南省某地质灾害频发社区的应急能力评价。结果表明,增加了地质灾害监测预警能力指标,使指标的针对性更强,因此采用 G1-CRITIC 组合加权模型得到的结果更加准确。本文构建的评价模型能够准确评价社区应急能力,可在云南省地质灾害频发社区进一步推广应用。
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International journal of disaster risk reduction
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