International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第6页

The impact of drought and climate change on economy, environment and human health in southern Iran: A qualitative study 干旱和气候变化对伊朗南部经济、环境和人类健康的影响：定性研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104937

Neda Malek Mohammadi , Narges Khanjani , Bahram Bakhtiari , Yunes Jahani

Drought and climate change are one of the most important environmental health challenges of the current century. It has been predicted that the occurrence of drought, its intensity, and its adverse effects on the environment, human health, societies, and economy will increase in the coming decades. This qualitative content analysis study aimed to explore the impact of drought on the lives of people living in the south of Iran. Data were collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews with farmers, urban and rural officials, and physicians. A total of 25 interviews were conducted. All interviews were recorded and then transcribed. Data were analyzed using MAXQDA version 18. The concepts raised by interviewees regarding the consequences of drought were categorized into four themes, including economic consequences, environmental hazards, health consequences, and adaptation options; and most of these consequences were inter-related. Participants believed that drought has affected the soil, environment, ecosystem, and the quality and quantity of water, and this can lead to extensive effects on humans’ physical, mental, and community wellbeing. Drought can also cause adverse economic effects, which can further intensify its adverse effects. It seems like the adverse effects of drought in Iran are severe and destructive, and this is due to the mismanagement of water and environmental resources and other socio-economic problems. Fundamental changes in the management of water and environmental resources are necessary.

干旱和气候变化是本世纪最重要的环境健康挑战之一。据预测，未来几十年，干旱的发生率、强度及其对环境、人类健康、社会和经济的不利影响都将增加。本定性内容分析研究旨在探讨干旱对伊朗南部居民生活的影响。通过对农民、城乡官员和医生进行深入的半结构化访谈收集数据。共进行了 25 次访谈。所有访谈都进行了录音，然后转录。数据使用 MAXQDA 第 18 版进行分析。受访者就干旱后果提出的概念分为四个主题，包括经济后果、环境危害、健康后果和适应方案；这些后果大多相互关联。受访者认为，干旱影响了土壤、环境、生态系统以及水的质量和数量，会对人类的身体、精神和社区福祉造成广泛影响。干旱还会对经济造成不利影响，从而进一步加剧其不利影响。在伊朗，干旱的不利影响似乎是严重和破坏性的，这是由于水和环境资源管理不善以及其他社会经济问题造成的。必须从根本上改变水资源和环境资源的管理。

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引用次数: 0

Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to Natech accident triggered by earthquakes in a liquor storage tank area 多米诺效应定量风险评估在白酒储罐区地震引发的 Natech 事故中的应用

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104957

Tianming Ma , Jiajun Zou , Yuan He , Hong Zhao , Yanyu Chu , Dongyao Zhang , Chuyuan Huang

Damage to industrial equipment caused by earthquakes is a typical Natech accident. Earthquake damage may cause tank failures and trigger accidental releases of hazardous substances, even a series of fires and explosions, forming a natural hazard-induced domino chain (NHDC), which poses a serious threat to the processing industry. In this study, a whole-process quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methodology for earthquake-induced domino accident chains is proposed. In the framework of QRA, specific probit models are used to quantify the damage of earthquakes and to assess the probability of storage tank failure. Besides, pool fires following the leakage of the failed tanks were considered to be the consequence of the earthquake Natech accident. The Mudan thermal radiation model and the threshold model were used to identify the propagation paths of domino effects. Case studies were carried out to investigate the dynamic evolution of fire-related domino effects in different credible accident scenarios, including multiple initial accidents co-occurring. The results show that the combination of multiple initial accident scenarios takes less time to complete domino effect escalation of the overall scenario than a single initial accident scenario and will significantly increase the regional risk indices.

地震造成的工业设备损坏是典型的内特奇事故。地震破坏可能导致储罐故障，引发危险物质的意外释放，甚至引发一系列火灾和爆炸，形成自然灾害诱发的多米诺骨牌连锁事故（NHDC），对加工业构成严重威胁。本研究提出了地震诱发多米诺骨牌事故链的全过程定量风险评估（QRA）方法。在定量风险评估的框架内，使用特定的概率模型来量化地震的破坏程度，并评估储罐失效的概率。此外，失效储罐泄漏后的水池火灾也被视为地震 Natech 事故的后果。使用 Mudan 热辐射模型和阈值模型来确定多米诺骨牌效应的传播路径。进行了案例研究，以调查在不同可信事故情景下与火灾相关的多米诺效应的动态演变，包括多个初始事故同时发生。结果表明，与单一初始事故情景相比，多个初始事故情景组合完成整体情景多米诺效应升级所需的时间更短，并将显著增加区域风险指数。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing and mitigating dwelling collapse risk due to extreme precipitation: A comprehensive study using CNN-RF and GeoDetector 评估和减轻极端降水导致的住宅倒塌风险：使用 CNN-RF 和 GeoDetector 的综合研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104918

Yinan Wang , Juan Nie , Zhenxiang Xing , Zhenbo Wang , Chengdong Xu , Heng Li

Dragon boat rain, the most common extreme precipitation form in South China from May to June with more similar spatial distribution, caused serious loss of people's lives and property. The dwelling collapse is one of the main losses. Previous studies have paid little attention to the dwelling collapse risk caused by dragon boat rain (DCRDBR), the coupling model with CNN and RF applied to its assessment, and the influence of the precipitation process and interaction of natural and social factors on it. To fill these gaps, the CNN-RF was used to calculate the DCRDBR and the DCRDBR map was drawn. The Geodetctor was used to identify the main influencing factors and influencing factor interactions of DCRDBR, due to the spatial stratified heterogeneity of DCRDBR and the ability to obtain the determinant power of single factor and factor interaction. The results show that the F1 score and the AUC value of CNN-RF are 0.96 and 0.81, respectively. The spatial distribution of DCRDBR obtained by CNN-RF is high in the northeast and low in the southwest Guangdong Province. The total precipitation has the strongest determinant power (q = 0.54) followed by Slope (q = 0.52). The average determinant power of factors describing the precipitation process is 0.25. The combination of total precipitation and GDP/capita has the strongest determinant power of all combinations of natural and socio-economic factors (q = 0.72) followed by the total precipitation and ratio of urban population (q = 0.71). This study demonstrates the ability of CNN-RF applied to the DCRDBR assessment due to the integration of feature extraction and anti-overfitting ability, and identifies the influence of precipitation processes and the interaction of natural and socio-economic factors on the DCRDBR. It provides a solid scientific basis for crafting strategies to mitigate the impact of dragon boat rain and is conducive to the city's sustainable development.

龙舟雨是华南地区 5 月至 6 月最常见的极端降水形式，空间分布较为相似，给人民生命财产造成了严重损失。住宅倒塌是主要损失之一。以往的研究很少关注龙舟雨（DCRDBR）导致的民房倒塌风险、应用 CNN 和 RF 耦合模型对其进行评估，以及降水过程和自然与社会因素相互作用对其的影响。为了填补这些空白，利用 CNN-RF 计算了龙舟雨风险，并绘制了龙舟雨风险地图。由于 DCRDBR 的空间分层异质性，以及能够获得单因素和因素交互作用的决定力，因此使用 Geodetctor 确定了 DCRDBR 的主要影响因素和影响因素交互作用。结果表明，CNN-RF 的 F1 得分和 AUC 值分别为 0.96 和 0.81。CNN-RF 得到的 DCRDBR 空间分布在广东省东北部较高，西南部较低。总降水量的决定力最强（q = 0.54），其次是坡度（q = 0.52）。描述降水过程的因子的平均决定力为 0.25。在所有自然和社会经济因素组合中，总降水量和人均国内生产总值的组合具有最强的决定力（q = 0.72），其次是总降水量和城市人口比例（q = 0.71）。本研究证明了 CNN-RF 在 DCRDBR 评估中的应用能力，它集特征提取和抗过拟合能力于一体，识别了降水过程以及自然和社会经济因素的相互作用对 DCRDBR 的影响。它为制定减轻龙舟雨影响的策略提供了坚实的科学依据，有利于城市的可持续发展。

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引用次数: 0

Strategic hazard mitigation planning 减灾战略规划

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104923

Melanie Gall , Peiyao Li , Carol J. Friedland

A multitude of studies have emerged in recent years that examined the quality of hazard mitigation plans. This study adds to the existing body of research by examining the quality of mitigation strategies, associated mitigation actions, and adherence to strategic planning principles. The study reviewed 64 local Louisiana hazard mitigation plans producing a dataset of 7729 proposed mitigation actions. Mitigation actions were assigned one or more FEMA project codes as well as one of six government powers. Comparative statistics revealed that coastal and inland parishes do not propose distinctly different mitigation plans despite differences in local risk and vulnerability profiles. While plans contained highly similar types of proposed mitigation actions, the majority of proposed mitigation actions consisted of building and infrastructure projects. Furthermore, hazard mitigation plans were largely aspirational in nature and lacked a true strategic roadmap for future risk reduction.

近年来出现了许多研究，对减灾计划的质量进行了考察。本研究通过考察减灾战略的质量、相关的减灾行动以及对战略规划原则的遵守情况，对现有的研究成果进行了补充。这项研究审查了路易斯安那州的 64 个地方减灾计划，产生了一个包含 7729 项拟议减灾行动的数据集。减灾行动被赋予了一个或多个联邦紧急事务管理局项目代码以及六种政府权力之一。比较统计显示，尽管地方风险和脆弱性概况存在差异，但沿海和内陆教区提出的减灾计划并无明显不同。虽然计划中包含的拟议减灾行动类型非常相似，但大多数拟议减灾行动都由建筑和基础设施项目组成。此外，减灾计划在很大程度上是愿望性的，缺乏未来降低风险的真正战略路线图。

引用次数: 0

WASH recommendations for improving disaster preparedness and recovery in schools in Indonesia 关于改善印度尼西亚学校备灾和灾后恢复工作的讲卫生运动建议

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104924

Margarita Garfias Royo , Imaduddin Ahmed , Ella Meilianda , Priti Parikh

Access to functional and clean toilets which maintain privacy and dignity and support girls’ Menstrual hygiene management (MHM) plays a crucial role to getting girls back to school post-disaster. This could also help in managing feelings of shame and disgust experienced when using toilets in schools in post disaster settings. In this paper, we report on our assessment of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) facilities in schools three-years post the 2018 multi-hazard event in Indonesia. We used a mixed-methods approach using visual observations, interviews with school principals, surveys with schoolgirls and focus group discussions with schoolgirls and teachers to understand the lived experiences of students using toilets at school. Our results highlight that across schools descriptive and injunctive social norms were supportive of littering, inadequate toilet facilities for girls to manage their menstruation and bullying and antisocial behaviour by opening toilet doors while the facilities were occupied. Based on these results, we developed two types of interventions, physical and behavioural, piloted in three schools to increase WASH and MHM awareness and the safety of sanitation facilities. Our interventions showed that approaches for WASH interventions in schools can only be designed if we understand the local barriers to carrying out interventions that integrate maintenance plans. We provide recommendations to support practitioners in mitigating risk and improving circumstances for girls in schools in Indonesia, which have the potential to address SDG 4 on inclusive and equitable education and SDG 5 on gender equality and girls’ empowerment.

使用功能齐全、干净整洁的厕所，既能维护隐私和尊严，又能帮助女孩进行经期卫生管理 (MHM)，这对灾后女孩重返校园起着至关重要的作用。在灾后环境中，这也有助于减轻女孩在使用学校厕所时的羞耻感和厌恶感。在本文中，我们报告了 2018 年印度尼西亚多重灾害事件发生三年后，我们对学校中的水、环境卫生和个人卫生（WASH）设施进行的评估。我们采用了一种混合方法，通过目视观察、对校长的访谈、对女学生的调查以及对女学生和教师的焦点小组讨论，来了解学生在学校使用厕所的生活体验。我们的研究结果表明，在各所学校，描述性和强制性社会规范支持乱扔垃圾、厕所设施不足导致女生月经不调，以及在厕所有人的情况下打开厕所门的欺凌和反社会行为。基于这些结果，我们制定了物理和行为两类干预措施，并在三所学校进行试点，以提高讲卫生运动和女性健康管理意识以及卫生设施的安全性。我们的干预措施表明，只有了解了当地在实施结合维护计划的干预措施方面存在的障碍，才能设计出学校讲卫生运动干预措施的方法。我们提出了一些建议，以支持实践者降低风险并改善印度尼西亚学校女童的境况，这有可能实现关于包容性和公平教育的可持续发展目标 4 以及关于性别平等和女童赋权的可持续发展目标 5。

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引用次数: 0

Quantitative assessment of congestion diffusion and cascading effect under rainfall-flood disasters: A case study of Nanjing, China 定量评估降雨-洪水灾害下的拥堵扩散和连带效应：中国南京案例研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104915

Zhichao Chen , Changjiang Zheng , Meng Xu , Zhilong Wu , Shukang Zheng , Genghua Ma

Urban road networks are frequently disrupted by flooding rainfall-flood disasters, which can cause severe traffic disruptions and leading to traffic congestion due to cascading effect. This paper investigates the reliability issues under rainfall-flood conditions. A coupled model, integrating a rainfall-flood model with an improved cascading failure model, is proposed to assess how rainfall intensities and flooding will influence traffic congestion and bring network instability. Utilizing an improved Nonlinear Load-Capacity model, we quantify the impact of congestion and analyze cascading processes under various rainfall-flood conditions. The case study in Nanjing, China reveal that, when congestion causes network pressure to exceed the traffic percolation threshold, traffic congestion diffusion becomes more pronounced, putting excessive strain on other passable roads. Network cascading failures due to traffic congestion diffusion can lead to excessive focus on the remaining passable roads, resulting in a sharp increase in the average importance. The significance of this work lies in its provision of an effective method for predicting potential network disruptions and cascading failures in advance, thereby enhancing post-disaster road operations.

城市道路网络经常受到降雨-洪水灾害的干扰，这会造成严重的交通中断，并因连锁效应而导致交通拥堵。本文研究了降雨-洪水条件下的可靠性问题。本文提出了一个将降雨-洪水模型与改进的级联故障模型相结合的耦合模型，以评估降雨强度和洪水将如何影响交通拥堵并带来网络不稳定性。利用改进的非线性负载-容量模型，我们量化了交通拥堵的影响，并分析了各种降雨-洪水条件下的级联过程。中国南京的案例研究表明，当拥堵导致网络压力超过交通渗透阈值时，交通拥堵扩散会变得更加明显，给其他可通行道路带来过大压力。交通拥堵扩散导致的网络级联故障会使剩余的可通行道路过度集中，导致平均重要性急剧上升。这项工作的意义在于提供了一种有效的方法，可以提前预测潜在的网络中断和级联故障，从而加强灾后道路运营。

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引用次数: 0

Covid-19 and intra-household financial coping strategies in Pakistan 巴基斯坦的 Covid-19 和家庭内部财务应对策略

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104908

Hamza Umer , Muhammad Fawad Khan

The economic challenges due to the Covid-19 are likely to be acuter in developing countries as their population predominantly relies on informal activities not protected through insurance or government support. To understand how people are coping with the Covid-19 challenges, this study investigates seven important financial coping strategies of households in Pakistan using a nationally representative large dataset of 6000 households. The data was collected by the government right after the acute stage of the Covid-19 to study the economic implications of pandemic. By using the binary logit regressions our results show that households exposed to a severe negative Covid-19 shock have higher odds of using their savings or investments, acquiring loans, quitting education of their children, not paying their utility bills, and selling their productive assets in comparison to the households unexposed to a severe Covid-19 shock. Furthermore, a gender-based comparison between severely affected male and female-headed households reveals that female-headed households are two times less likely to discontinue the education of their children, obtain informal loans, and sell their productive assets to cope with the Covid-19 shock. This reflects better financial management among female as compared to male-headed households. Lastly, compared to rural households, urban-affected households have higher odds of acquiring a formal loan. The findings highlight the severity of the pandemic in a developing country and call for a swift and targeted government response to ensure minimum well-being of the households.

在发展中国家，Covid-19 带来的经济挑战可能会更加严峻，因为这些国家的人口主要依赖于非正规活动，而这些活动得不到保险或政府支持的保护。为了了解人们如何应对 Covid-19 带来的挑战，本研究利用一个包含 6000 个家庭的具有全国代表性的大型数据集，调查了巴基斯坦家庭的七种重要财务应对策略。这些数据由政府在 Covid-19 急性期后立即收集，以研究大流行病的经济影响。通过使用二元对数回归，我们的结果表明，与未受 Covid-19 严重负面冲击的家庭相比，受 Covid-19 严重负面冲击的家庭动用储蓄或投资、获得贷款、放弃子女教育、不支付水电费和出售生产性资产的几率更高。此外，对受严重影响的男户主家庭和女户主家庭进行的性别比较显示，女户主家庭中断子女教育、获得非正规贷款和出售生产性资产以应对 Covid-19 冲击的可能性要低两倍。这反映出与男性户主家庭相比，女性户主家庭的财务管理能力更强。最后，与农村家庭相比，城市受灾家庭获得正规贷款的几率更高。研究结果凸显了这一流行病在发展中国家的严重性，呼吁政府迅速采取有针对性的应对措施，以确保家庭的最低福利。

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引用次数: 0

What you don't know can't help you: Public awareness about social and green infrastructure 你不知道的东西帮不了你：公众对社会和绿色基础设施的认识

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104891

Madeline Craig-Scheckman , Mikio Ishiwatari , Daniel P. Aldrich

引用次数: 0

Emerging place governance to lost places for communities: Government planning and citizen-driven placemaking in the disaster memorial parks after the 2011 Japan tsunami 新出现的地方治理，为社区找回失去的地方：2011 年日本海啸后灾害纪念公园中的政府规划和公民驱动的地方建设

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104907

Tamiyo Kondo , Yegane Ghezelloo , Nao Sakaguchi

Physical destruction, land use management, residential buyouts, and residential relocation following disasters disconnects people and places. Previous studies have revealed the unintended negative effects of residential buyouts and displacements, such as the reproduction of vulnerability, along with social injustice and also suggested that places determine the critical elements of long-term community recovery. We explored how government place-based planning and citizen-driven placemaking transform place identity of lost places after the 2011 Japan tsunami. We selected tsunami reconstruction memorial parks as lost places for local communities, and analyzed government planning reports, interviewed citizen-driven placemakers, and conducted questionnaire survey to clarify residents’ perception of place. Our results showed that the sense of belonging was determined by their sense of place in relation to memorial parks, as “part of the everyday landscape,” “nostalgia,” and “symbol of reconstruction.” We also found that citizen-driven placemaking embodied the concept of disaster memorial parks developed by government planning: requiem, commemoration, symbol of reconstruction. These results suggest that citizen-driven placemaking can potentially serve as a driving force to transform a sense of place that enhances the sense of belonging to lost places. We conclude that local authorities must pay attention to the fluctuation in the meaning of lost places that may influence long-term community recovery. Governments, civic organizations, and locals need to promote collaboration and pursue multi-stakeholder land use governance which can enhance community resilience.

灾后的物质破坏、土地使用管理、住宅收购和住宅搬迁使人与地方脱节。以往的研究揭示了住宅收购和搬迁带来的意想不到的负面影响，如脆弱性的再现以及社会不公，同时也表明场所决定了社区长期恢复的关键因素。我们探讨了在 2011 年日本海啸之后，政府基于地方的规划和公民驱动的地方建设如何改变失去的地方的地方认同。我们选取了海啸重建纪念公园作为当地社区的失落之地，通过分析政府规划报告、访谈公民驱动的场所营造者以及开展问卷调查来厘清居民对场所的感知。结果显示，居民的归属感取决于他们对纪念公园的场所感，即 "日常景观的一部分"、"乡愁 "和 "重建的象征"。我们还发现，由市民推动的场所营造体现了政府规划所提出的灾难纪念公园的概念：安魂曲、纪念、重建的象征。这些结果表明，以公民为主导的场所营造有可能成为改变场所感的推动力，从而增强人们对失去的场所的归属感。我们的结论是，地方当局必须关注失地意义的波动，这可能会影响社区的长期恢复。政府、民间组织和当地居民需要促进合作，追求多方利益相关者的土地利用治理，这可以增强社区的复原力。

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引用次数: 0

Iranian farmers' response to the drought crisis: How can the consequences of drought be reduced? 伊朗农民应对干旱危机：如何减轻干旱的后果？

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104910

Moslem Savari , Bagher Khaleghi , Abbas Sheheytavi

Climate change (CC) is an undeniable global phenomenon, impacting various regions, including Iran. Key components of CC, including the increase in greenhouse gases, rising temperatures, and fluctuations in precipitation patterns, are expected to significantly reduce agricultural crop yields in the near future. In response, identifying effective adaptation strategies is critical for mitigating these adverse effects. This study investigates the role of environmental values, risk perception, and psychological distance in shaping Iranian farmers’ adaptation strategies to CC. A sample of 390 farmers from Shushtar County in southwestern Iran was selected through a multi-stage stratified sampling method. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), the analysis revealed complex interrelationships between environmental values (biospheric, altruistic, and egoistic), beliefs, risk perception, psychological distance, and farmers' adaptation responses to CC. Furthermore, the results indicated that the study variables explain 67.6 % of the variance in farmers' adaptive behaviors, with belief in CC emerging as the most influential factor. These findings not only enrich the current body of literature but also provide actionable insights for policymakers to foster adaptive strategies among farmers.

气候变化（CC）是一个不可否认的全球现象，影响着包括伊朗在内的各个地区。气候变化的主要因素包括温室气体增加、气温升高和降水模式波动，预计在不久的将来会显著降低农作物产量。为此，确定有效的适应战略对于减轻这些不利影响至关重要。本研究调查了环境价值观、风险认知和心理距离在影响伊朗农民对气候变化的适应策略中的作用。通过多阶段分层抽样法，从伊朗西南部舒什塔尔县选取了 390 位农民作为样本。利用结构方程模型（SEM），分析揭示了环境价值观（生物圈、利他和利己）、信念、风险认知、心理距离和农民对 CC 的适应反应之间复杂的相互关系。此外，研究结果表明，研究变量解释了农民适应行为中 67.6% 的变异，其中对 CC 的信念是影响最大的因素。这些研究结果不仅丰富了现有文献，还为政策制定者提供了可操作的见解，以促进农民采取适应性策略。

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引用次数: 0