Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-14DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106008
Suzanne Vallance , Gradon Diprose , Bonny Hatami
It has been argued that too much of our disaster risk analysis is overly focussed on hazards at the expense of processes of social organisation, including gender. In advancing a less myopic research agenda, our qualitative research with women undertaking ‘disaster recovery’ work in Aotearoa New Zealand highlights important, but often overlooked, distinctions between inequality and inequity. This work also shows the importance of women's social reproduction work as a critical training ground for meta-competencies (empathy, multi-tasking and what we call ‘horizontal efficiency’) well-suited for the emerging reframing of ‘disasters’ as complex, cascading and compounding. This reframing suggests we shift attention towards systemic socio-political and ideological drivers of precarity and opportunity so as to re-theorise and challenge neat distinctions between prevention, preparedness, response and recovery (PPRR). An implication for practice is to learn from the way these women undertook their multifaceted social reproductive work which blended domestic, informal and formal spheres, and was often crisis-driven even in ‘peacetime’. We conclude with some thoughts on the ways the skills learned through social reproduction labour are more broadly appropriate for our ‘curvy, wonky world’.
{"title":"Women, equity and social reproduction: Retheorising ‘PPRR’ through a gendered lens","authors":"Suzanne Vallance , Gradon Diprose , Bonny Hatami","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>It has been argued that too much of our disaster risk analysis is overly focussed on hazards at the expense of processes of social organisation, including gender. In advancing a less myopic research agenda, our qualitative research with women undertaking ‘disaster recovery’ work in Aotearoa New Zealand highlights important, but often overlooked, distinctions between inequality and inequity. This work also shows the importance of women's social reproduction work as a critical training ground for meta-competencies (empathy, multi-tasking and what we call ‘horizontal efficiency’) well-suited for the emerging reframing of ‘disasters’ as complex, cascading and compounding. This reframing suggests we shift attention towards systemic socio-political and ideological drivers of precarity and opportunity so as to re-theorise and challenge neat distinctions between prevention, preparedness, response and recovery (PPRR). An implication for practice is to learn from the way these women undertook their multifaceted social reproductive work which blended domestic, informal and formal spheres, and was often crisis-driven even in ‘peacetime’. We conclude with some thoughts on the ways the skills learned through social reproduction labour are more broadly appropriate for our ‘curvy, wonky world’.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 106008"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146022789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In recent years, the frequency of floods has increased globally due to the influence of climate change and the growth of urbanization, which significantly alters land use and makes many areas more susceptible to flooding. Simultaneously, there has been growing interest in mitigating the risks associated with flood disasters, including addressing socioeconomic vulnerabilities in this process. Reducing the impacts of such events requires a proactive approach, with disaster risk management increasingly focused on strengthening the resilience of communities and urban infrastructure. In this context, measuring resilience becomes essential to support the planning of priority actions aimed at risk reduction and adaptation to extreme events. Thus, this study proposes spatialized indexes for assessing flood resilience, covering the pre-disaster stage of the flood risk management cycle, corresponding to the prevention, mitigation, and preparedness stages. The methodology is applied and validated using the urban watershed of the Piraquê-Cabuçu River in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A hydrodynamic mathematical model is employed to map flood-prone areas and characterize flood hazards, while socioeconomic indicators reflect the urban conditions of the watershed. The results of the spatialized resilience index in the basin indicate that during the pre-disaster period, the prevention stage shows the largest proportion of basin area with very low resilience (31 %), compared to mitigation and preparedness stages. The results found allow us to identify the areas that are less resilient to flood risk and that require management strategies to reverse this situation.
{"title":"Urban flood resilience indexes to assess the pre-disaster stage of the disaster risk management cycle","authors":"Ana Cristina Rodrigues Lopes , Osvaldo Moura Rezende , Marcelo Gomes Miguez","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105859","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105859","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, the frequency of floods has increased globally due to the influence of climate change and the growth of urbanization, which significantly alters land use and makes many areas more susceptible to flooding. Simultaneously, there has been growing interest in mitigating the risks associated with flood disasters, including addressing socioeconomic vulnerabilities in this process. Reducing the impacts of such events requires a proactive approach, with disaster risk management increasingly focused on strengthening the resilience of communities and urban infrastructure. In this context, measuring resilience becomes essential to support the planning of priority actions aimed at risk reduction and adaptation to extreme events. Thus, this study proposes spatialized indexes for assessing flood resilience, covering the pre-disaster stage of the flood risk management cycle, corresponding to the prevention, mitigation, and preparedness stages. The methodology is applied and validated using the urban watershed of the Piraquê-Cabuçu River in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A hydrodynamic mathematical model is employed to map flood-prone areas and characterize flood hazards, while socioeconomic indicators reflect the urban conditions of the watershed. The results of the spatialized resilience index in the basin indicate that during the pre-disaster period, the prevention stage shows the largest proportion of basin area with very low resilience (31 %), compared to mitigation and preparedness stages. The results found allow us to identify the areas that are less resilient to flood risk and that require management strategies to reverse this situation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105859"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106010
Rozana Himaz
This paper looks at the impact of the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake on physical health outcomes 18–24 months after the event. The data come from the longitudinal Indonesia Family Life Survey 2000 and 2007 for a sample of around 4400 individuals representing those affected by the earthquake and a carefully constructed control group. Health outcomes are measured using indices capturing long-term health (Activities of Daily Living), physical pain, sleep disturbance and the effect of chronic illness onset on the ability to take up paid work. These health outcomes are regressed on earthquake destruction and pre-hazard characteristics, accounting for endogeneity via instrumental variable estimation. The results show that a complete (100 %) loss of assets -experienced by over a fifth of those who lived in earthquake-affected areas- is associated with an 11 % increase in difficulty in daily activities relative to baseline and an 8 % increase in pain relative to the control group. It also shows that for the subset of respondents who experienced full asset loss and were diagnosed with at least one chronic illness since the quake, perceived limitations to take up paid work increased by 18.5 % relative to the control group average. Thus, the negative physical health impacts of the earthquake were persistent and significant suggesting the importance of post-disaster health and labour market support well beyond the emergency phase. These findings are highly relevant in the context of more recent disasters such as the 2023 Türkiye-Syria, Morocco and Afghanistan earthquakes where long-term health consequences and recovery strategies are still unfolding.
{"title":"Long-term physical health impacts of disasters: Evidence from the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake","authors":"Rozana Himaz","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper looks at the impact of the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake on physical health outcomes 18–24 months after the event. The data come from the longitudinal Indonesia Family Life Survey 2000 and 2007 for a sample of around 4400 individuals representing those affected by the earthquake and a carefully constructed control group. Health outcomes are measured using indices capturing long-term health (Activities of Daily Living), physical pain, sleep disturbance and the effect of chronic illness onset on the ability to take up paid work. These health outcomes are regressed on earthquake destruction and pre-hazard characteristics, accounting for endogeneity via instrumental variable estimation. The results show that a complete (100 %) loss of assets -experienced by over a fifth of those who lived in earthquake-affected areas- is associated with an 11 % increase in difficulty in daily activities relative to baseline and an 8 % increase in pain relative to the control group. It also shows that for the subset of respondents who experienced full asset loss and were diagnosed with at least one chronic illness since the quake, perceived limitations to take up paid work increased by 18.5 % relative to the control group average. Thus, the negative physical health impacts of the earthquake were persistent and significant suggesting the importance of post-disaster health and labour market support well beyond the emergency phase. These findings are highly relevant in the context of more recent disasters such as the 2023 Türkiye-Syria, Morocco and Afghanistan earthquakes where long-term health consequences and recovery strategies are still unfolding.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 106010"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-13DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106018
Ahlke Kip , Lisa Gibbs , Robyn Molyneaux , David Forbes , Colin MacDougall , H Colin Gallagher , Richard Bryant
When recurrent hazards are exacerbated by climate change, the recovery process from one hazard is closely linked to the preparedness for subsequent events. This study investigated associations of long-term bushfire preparedness after previous bushfire exposure, focusing on the Protective Action Decision Model and considering mental health as an additional explanatory variable. Participants included a sample from the Beyond Bushfire study which was conducted 3–4 years after the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires. Analyses were conducted on 1010 residents of Australian communities who were affected to varying degrees by the bushfires. Associated variables of increased bushfire preparedness were investigated using multivariable logistic regression analysis and included sociodemographic variables, risk perception of future bushfires, evaluation of personal choices during the bushfires, severity of exposure, community connectedness, exposure to subsequent hazards, and mental health. Risk perception was positively associated with increased preparedness, while sense of control over choices, comfort over choices made during the bushfires, and depression symptoms were associated with reduced odds of bushfire preparedness engagement. The findings suggest that personal accounts of previous bushfires may be more related to preparedness behaviours than objective disaster consequences. This finding points to the potential benefit of integrating mental health considerations into disaster preparedness and response policies. However, the model explained only 3.8 % of the differences in preparedness, highlighting the complexity of protective action prediction. More longitudinal research is necessary to improve our understanding of mental health influences.
{"title":"Factors associated with increased preparedness for future bushfires after exposure to a severe bushfire in Australia","authors":"Ahlke Kip , Lisa Gibbs , Robyn Molyneaux , David Forbes , Colin MacDougall , H Colin Gallagher , Richard Bryant","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When recurrent hazards are exacerbated by climate change, the recovery process from one hazard is closely linked to the preparedness for subsequent events. This study investigated associations of long-term bushfire preparedness after previous bushfire exposure, focusing on the Protective Action Decision Model and considering mental health as an additional explanatory variable. Participants included a sample from the Beyond Bushfire study which was conducted 3–4 years after the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires. Analyses were conducted on 1010 residents of Australian communities who were affected to varying degrees by the bushfires. Associated variables of increased bushfire preparedness were investigated using multivariable logistic regression analysis and included sociodemographic variables, risk perception of future bushfires, evaluation of personal choices during the bushfires, severity of exposure, community connectedness, exposure to subsequent hazards, and mental health. Risk perception was positively associated with increased preparedness, while sense of control over choices, comfort over choices made during the bushfires, and depression symptoms were associated with reduced odds of bushfire preparedness engagement. The findings suggest that personal accounts of previous bushfires may be more related to preparedness behaviours than objective disaster consequences. This finding points to the potential benefit of integrating mental health considerations into disaster preparedness and response policies. However, the model explained only 3.8 % of the differences in preparedness, highlighting the complexity of protective action prediction. More longitudinal research is necessary to improve our understanding of mental health influences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 106018"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-11-19DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105923
Aishwarya Borate , David Feldman
The post-disaster period is often marked by discussions about the causes of the event and solutions to manage risk. From a policy-making perspective, disasters can act as focusing events, garnering the attention of the public and elites and creating a window of opportunity for policy change to reduce disaster risk. Narratives that circulate post-disaster are one of the crucial factors that influence the government's decisions to respond to them. This study examines the narratives surrounding flood risk in Chiplun, Maharashtra, after the 2021 flooding by integrating the Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) with the Pressure and Release Framework (PAR). Our innovative framework reveals how narratives in a post-disaster policy window direct attention to certain dimensions of risk while overlooking others and its implications for flood risk reduction. Analysis of media coverage, government reports, and stakeholder interviews revealed three dominant narratives surrounding flood risk: 1) flooding as a consequence of dam (mis)management, 2) flooding as a result of sediment accumulation in the river, and 3) flooding as an outcome of development in the floodplain. We found that the narratives focusing on unsafe conditions gained traction, while those challenging power structures faced resistance. The sediment accumulation narrative was successful because it did not challenge existing power structures. Despite engaging with dynamic pressures, the floodplain development narrative faced the most resistance because it challenged the powerful economic interest groups. The analysis of competing narratives surrounding flood risk indicates that selective engagement or silence regarding different dimensions of risk makes effective flood risk management in India challenging.
{"title":"Barriers to effective flood risk management in India: A case of 2021 Chiplun flooding","authors":"Aishwarya Borate , David Feldman","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105923","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105923","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The post-disaster period is often marked by discussions about the causes of the event and solutions to manage risk. From a policy-making perspective, disasters can act as focusing events, garnering the attention of the public and elites and creating a window of opportunity for policy change to reduce disaster risk. Narratives that circulate post-disaster are one of the crucial factors that influence the government's decisions to respond to them. This study examines the narratives surrounding flood risk in Chiplun, Maharashtra, after the 2021 flooding by integrating the Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) with the Pressure and Release Framework (PAR). Our innovative framework reveals how narratives in a post-disaster policy window direct attention to certain dimensions of risk while overlooking others and its implications for flood risk reduction. Analysis of media coverage, government reports, and stakeholder interviews revealed three dominant narratives surrounding flood risk: 1) flooding as a consequence of dam (mis)management, 2) flooding as a result of sediment accumulation in the river, and 3) flooding as an outcome of development in the floodplain. We found that the narratives focusing on unsafe conditions gained traction, while those challenging power structures faced resistance. The sediment accumulation narrative was successful because it did not challenge existing power structures. Despite engaging with dynamic pressures, the floodplain development narrative faced the most resistance because it challenged the powerful economic interest groups. The analysis of competing narratives surrounding flood risk indicates that selective engagement or silence regarding different dimensions of risk makes effective flood risk management in India challenging.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105923"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145616549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-16DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106012
Luan Marca, Luis Fernando Tavares Vieira Braga, Marco Tulio Aniceto Franca, Augusto Mussi Alvim
This study provides one of the first causal assessments of drought-induced economic losses at the municipal level in Brazil. Using a balanced panel of 5538 municipalities from 2004 to 2021, we apply a staggered adoption difference-in-differences framework with municipality-clustered standard errors to estimate the medium- and long-term impacts on total GDP, formal employment, population density, and sectoral value added in agriculture, services, and industry. The results show that droughts generate persistent and economically significant contractions in municipal output and formal employment. For population density, the estimates indicate sustained post-treatment declines; however, event-study diagnostics reveal significant pre-treatment trends, suggesting that droughts amplify ongoing demographic dynamics rather. Losses are particularly pronounced in services and industry, indicating strong demand- and supply-driven spillovers beyond agriculture. Although the Northeast remains chronically exposed, the most severe contractions concentrate in municipalities in the South–Southeast, suggesting that regions with higher economic formalization and more complex production structures may be more vulnerable to recent drought shocks. These findings have direct implications for climate-adaptation strategies, highlighting the need for territorially targeted investments in water security, risk management, and economic resilience. More broadly, the results point to unequal and spatially concentrated burdens, underscoring the need for future research to examine the distributive impacts of droughts across municipalities with different socioeconomic profiles and adaptive capacities.
{"title":"The cost of drought: A causal study for Brazilian Municipalities","authors":"Luan Marca, Luis Fernando Tavares Vieira Braga, Marco Tulio Aniceto Franca, Augusto Mussi Alvim","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study provides one of the first causal assessments of drought-induced economic losses at the municipal level in Brazil. Using a balanced panel of 5538 municipalities from 2004 to 2021, we apply a staggered adoption difference-in-differences framework with municipality-clustered standard errors to estimate the medium- and long-term impacts on total GDP, formal employment, population density, and sectoral value added in agriculture, services, and industry. The results show that droughts generate persistent and economically significant contractions in municipal output and formal employment. For population density, the estimates indicate sustained post-treatment declines; however, event-study diagnostics reveal significant pre-treatment trends, suggesting that droughts amplify ongoing demographic dynamics rather. Losses are particularly pronounced in services and industry, indicating strong demand- and supply-driven spillovers beyond agriculture. Although the Northeast remains chronically exposed, the most severe contractions concentrate in municipalities in the South–Southeast, suggesting that regions with higher economic formalization and more complex production structures may be more vulnerable to recent drought shocks. These findings have direct implications for climate-adaptation strategies, highlighting the need for territorially targeted investments in water security, risk management, and economic resilience. More broadly, the results point to unequal and spatially concentrated burdens, underscoring the need for future research to examine the distributive impacts of droughts across municipalities with different socioeconomic profiles and adaptive capacities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 106012"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146022776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105995
Roben Delos Reyes , Daniel Capurro , Nicholas Geard
Mass casualty incidents (MCIs) due to disasters such as earthquakes and infectious disease outbreaks create a sudden surge of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Responding appropriately to these incidents requires EDs to have situational awareness of both the current and future impacts of an MCI on patient presentation and resource allocation. ED simulation models are used to support such decision making by simulating how MCIs will affect an ED based on hypothetical assumptions or historical data from past MCIs. However, because each MCI can unfold differently, there remains a need to update these ED simulation models using ED observations collected as an MCI unfolds to adequately represent the ED’s current conditions in reality. Here, we present a novel data assimilation method for incorporating recently collected observations into an ED simulation model to align the conditions in the simulation model with the conditions in its real-world ED counterpart during an unfolding MCI. We demonstrate that using real-time ED observations can generate more accurate and reliable estimates of the ED’s current conditions and forecasts of its future conditions, compared with relying solely on past observations. Our results highlight how ED simulation models can function as real-time decision support tools in the ED, particularly for enhancing situational awareness during MCIs to support real-time disaster response.
{"title":"Data assimilation in emergency department simulations for real-time disaster response","authors":"Roben Delos Reyes , Daniel Capurro , Nicholas Geard","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105995","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105995","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mass casualty incidents (MCIs) due to disasters such as earthquakes and infectious disease outbreaks create a sudden surge of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Responding appropriately to these incidents requires EDs to have situational awareness of both the current and future impacts of an MCI on patient presentation and resource allocation. ED simulation models are used to support such decision making by simulating how MCIs will affect an ED based on hypothetical assumptions or historical data from past MCIs. However, because each MCI can unfold differently, there remains a need to update these ED simulation models using ED observations collected as an MCI unfolds to adequately represent the ED’s current conditions in reality. Here, we present a novel data assimilation method for incorporating recently collected observations into an ED simulation model to align the conditions in the simulation model with the conditions in its real-world ED counterpart during an unfolding MCI. We demonstrate that using real-time ED observations can generate more accurate and reliable estimates of the ED’s current conditions and forecasts of its future conditions, compared with relying solely on past observations. Our results highlight how ED simulation models can function as real-time decision support tools in the ED, particularly for enhancing situational awareness during MCIs to support real-time disaster response.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105995"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Understanding how the built environment shapes epidemic risk at different spatial scales is critical for place-based health research and policy. However, existing studies often assume uniform effects and overlook that explanatory variables may operate at distinct and sometimes nonlinear scales within cities. In this study, we adopt a progressive diagnostic framework to analyze sub-district level built-environment, socioeconomic, and natural ecological factors associated with COVID-19 infection rates in Wuhan, China. We find hospital accessibility has highly localized effects, while metro proximity, POI density, and housing price show influence at broader meso and macro scales. Clustering of Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) coefficients identifies two epidemic response zones: eastern districts where constrained healthcare access and socioeconomic vulnerability dominate, and central–western districts where socioeconomic and transit factors are stronger. These findings underscore uneven spatial vulnerability and the need to avoid city-wide “one-size-fits-all” policies. Our framework offers transferable methodological and policy insights for designing interventions tuned to place and scale across urban health contexts.
{"title":"A multiscale spatial diagnostic framework for built environment determinants of epidemic risk: Evidence from Wuhan","authors":"Yangguang Xiao , Kojiro Sho , Jonathan Corcoran , Shichen Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105984","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105984","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding how the built environment shapes epidemic risk at different spatial scales is critical for place-based health research and policy. However, existing studies often assume uniform effects and overlook that explanatory variables may operate at distinct and sometimes nonlinear scales within cities. In this study, we adopt a progressive diagnostic framework to analyze sub-district level built-environment, socioeconomic, and natural ecological factors associated with COVID-19 infection rates in Wuhan, China. We find hospital accessibility has highly localized effects, while metro proximity, POI density, and housing price show influence at broader meso and macro scales. Clustering of Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) coefficients identifies two epidemic response zones: eastern districts where constrained healthcare access and socioeconomic vulnerability dominate, and central–western districts where socioeconomic and transit factors are stronger. These findings underscore uneven spatial vulnerability and the need to avoid city-wide “one-size-fits-all” policies. Our framework offers transferable methodological and policy insights for designing interventions tuned to place and scale across urban health contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105984"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Successful post-fire rehabilitation is of utmost importance in wildfire-prone areas. Within the broader framework of postfire management, a tool that facilitates the continuous evaluation of applied strategies is therefore potentially essential. The current study aims to contribute to this process through the definition, implementation and validation of the Continuous Monitoring for Post-Fire Rehabilitation Index, thereby filling a gap in the existing literature. The proposed index integrates variables representing the ecological and socio-economic status of an area, which have been thoroughly weighted through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). To that end, a structured survey was conducted among 14 experts across Europe to obtain pairwise comparisons and to derive the corresponding variable weights. A Likert scale was employed to ensure unbiased scoring transformation and homogeneity across diverse data types. The survey responses were rigorously processed to ensure consistency, address missing judgments, and aggregate preference weights. To further support spatial distribution on a Geographic Information System basis, a software tool was developed using the Python programming language. The index's reliability and sensitivity were validated using the Monte Carlo simulation method and tested on field data in the form of maps using a Geodatabase in a burned area in Northern Evia, Greece, across two distinct periods. The results of the sensitivity analysis shown that the index runs smoothly. The produced spatial data from its application in the test area indicate that it classifies locations according to the impact size, and maps the progress of rehabilitation efforts between the two evaluation periods with clarity and reliability compared to the field rehabilitation progress.
{"title":"Assessing post-fire rehabilitation: Development and validation of a continuous monitoring index","authors":"Spyridon Kaloudis , Dimitrios Raptis , Stavroula Galanopoulou , Konstantinos Demestichas , Evdoxia Lykoudi , Filotheos Ntalianis , Dimitrios Zografakis , Dimitrios Sykas , Constantina Costopoulou","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105924","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105924","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Successful post-fire rehabilitation is of utmost importance in wildfire-prone areas. Within the broader framework of postfire management, a tool that facilitates the continuous evaluation of applied strategies is therefore potentially essential. The current study aims to contribute to this process through the definition, implementation and validation of the Continuous Monitoring for Post-Fire Rehabilitation Index, thereby filling a gap in the existing literature. The proposed index integrates variables representing the ecological and socio-economic status of an area, which have been thoroughly weighted through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). To that end, a structured survey was conducted among 14 experts across Europe to obtain pairwise comparisons and to derive the corresponding variable weights. A Likert scale was employed to ensure unbiased scoring transformation and homogeneity across diverse data types. The survey responses were rigorously processed to ensure consistency, address missing judgments, and aggregate preference weights. To further support spatial distribution on a Geographic Information System basis, a software tool was developed using the Python programming language. The index's reliability and sensitivity were validated using the Monte Carlo simulation method and tested on field data in the form of maps using a Geodatabase in a burned area in Northern Evia, Greece, across two distinct periods. The results of the sensitivity analysis shown that the index runs smoothly. The produced spatial data from its application in the test area indicate that it classifies locations according to the impact size, and maps the progress of rehabilitation efforts between the two evaluation periods with clarity and reliability compared to the field rehabilitation progress.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105924"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145616557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105961
Mafalda Cravo , Jacinto Estima , Alberto Rodrigues da Silva , João Matos , Ana M. Ricardo , Rui M.L. Ferreira
Extreme weather events have become increasingly frequent and severe, with rain-induced floods and inundations remaining the deadliest form of natural disaster. Mitigating their impacts requires tools that support all phases of the flood risk management cycle. The RiverCure Portal (RCP) is a web-based platform with geographic information system capabilities, that integrates the definition of geographic contexts with sensor data and hydrodynamic modeling tools, enabling decision-makers and researchers to assess and respond to flood risks. This paper presents and evaluates an extension to the RCP that incorporates citizen science features, enabling the contribution of field-collected data related to extreme weather events, and promoting citizen education and engagement. A focus group provided formative feedback during development, informing iterative improvements. The final version of the RCP was evaluated through a usability study involving 15 participants, achieving a System Usability Scale score of 84.67 out of 100, indicating high perceived usability.
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