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Investigating climate change adaptation strategies among informal residents in Kumasi through the lenses of the social action and social control theories 从社会行动和社会控制理论的角度调查库马西非正规居民的气候变化适应战略
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104963
Michael Osei Asibey , Vivian Yeboah
The urban poor in informal settlements in Ghana remain exposed and vulnerable to climate-induced hazards. Their exclusion from official adaptation interventions, undeniably, calls for social mechanisms to enable them to adapt to climate change hazards such as heatwaves and floods. Individuals may contribute to exacerbating climate-induced hazards or employ adaptation measures as a common practice or due to their connectedness to a group, as hypothesised by the social action and social control theories, respectively. There is, however, no known study on the empirical and theoretical contributions of these theories to influencing climate change adaptation efforts in urban Africa. At best, studies have looked at the importance of individual and community skills, and assets to adapting to climate change hazards. The study is underpinned by the social action and social control theories to explore how elements of the theories shape hazard reduction and adaptation efforts. 367 household interviews and, four focus group discussions were conducted in two of Kumasi's largest informal settlements – Aboabo and Asawase – in addition to seven relevant agency interviews. We found that most households employed several adaptation measures because they saw other residents do the same which was confirmed by the Chi-square test statistic (χ2 = 4.968, p < 0.000) and as hypothesised by the social action theory. Similarly, as hypothesised by the social control theory, we also found differences in the adaptation measures employed by households belonging to identified environment-related groups (χ2 = 21.465, p < 0.001). This was largely because among other activities, the education and training exercises undertaken by the groups influenced the knowledge levels of members about climate change hazards and adaptation measures. The groups offer emotional, monetary, material, and practical support to cope within the short-term; first to the members, and the general residents, who are affected by disasters. Generally, adopted measures to reduce adverse impacts and build adaptation were unsustainable. This study is among few studies that demonstrate the contribution of the social action and social control theories to managing and adapting to climate change and its associated impacts in African cities.
加纳非正规住区中的城市贫民仍然容易受到气候灾害的影响。不可否认,他们被排除在官方适应干预措施之外,这就要求建立社会机制,使他们能够适应热浪和洪水等气候变化危害。正如社会行动理论和社会控制理论分别假设的那样,个人可能会加剧气候灾害,或作为一种常见做法或由于与群体的联系而采用适应措施。然而,关于这些理论在影响非洲城市气候变化适应工作方面的经验和理论贡献,目前尚无任何已知研究。最多的研究只是探讨了个人和社区技能以及资产对适应气候变化危害的重要性。本研究以社会行动和社会控制理论为基础,探讨这些理论要素如何影响减灾和适应工作。我们在库马西最大的两个非正规居住区--阿博博和阿萨瓦斯--进行了 367 次家庭访谈和 4 次焦点小组讨论,此外还进行了 7 次相关机构访谈。我们发现,大多数家庭都采取了多项适应措施,因为他们看到其他居民也采取了同样的措施,这一点得到了卡方检验统计量(χ2 = 4.968, p <0.000)的证实,也符合社会行动理论的假设。同样,正如社会控制理论所假设的那样,我们还发现属于已确定的环境相关群体的家庭所采取的适应措施存在差异(χ2 = 21.465,p < 0.001)。这主要是因为除其他活动外,团体开展的教育和培训活动影响了成员对气候变化危害和适应措施的认识水平。这些小组首先为受灾害影响的成员和普通居民提供情感、金钱、物质和实际支持,帮助他们在短期内应对灾害。一般来说,为减少不利影响和建立适应能力而采取的措施是不可持续的。这项研究是为数不多的证明社会行动和社会控制理论有助于非洲城市管理和适应气候变化及其相关影响的研究之一。
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引用次数: 0
A dynamic fire risk assessment method for compact historic villages based on the improved FRAME 基于改进型 FRAME 的紧凑型历史古村落动态火灾风险评估方法
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104935
Danyan Liao , Xiaolan Zhuo , Jin Tao
There are a large number of high-value heritage sites in the historic villages preserved in the mountainous areas of southern China. These sites are exposed to major fire risks due to their compact layout and wooden building materials. By improving the fire risk assessment method for engineering (FRAME), we proposed a dynamic fire risk assessment method for compact historic villages. On one hand, a balance between universality and pertinence was established regarding the assessment indexes and weighting system by integrating general factors with unique regional factors. On the other hand, a connecting link between prescriptive fire codes and performance-based design adjustments was established through the cyclic operation path of assessment-intervention-reassessment. Xiaozhai village, which has experienced serious fire incidents, was selected as an example. Its original fire risk, established fire interventions, actual fire results, and optimized fire protection plan were compared and analyzed to validate the effectiveness and reliability of the assessment method. This study reveals the correlation between various factors of the village and building fire risk. Among these factors, building proximity, traditional customs, and fire protection layout, which are not included in the original FRAME, have a significant impact on fire risk. The results of this study can serve as a reference for fire prevention in historic villages with similar characteristics worldwide. Additionally, the proposed methodology can provide insights into the development of fire risk assessment methods for various types of historical settlements, thus promoting the sustainable development of built heritage in these settlements.
在中国南方山区保存的历史村落中,有大量高价值的遗产地。这些遗址由于布局紧凑、采用木质建筑材料,面临着较大的火灾风险。通过改进工程火灾风险评估方法(FRAME),我们提出了紧凑型历史村落的动态火灾风险评估方法。一方面,在评估指标和权重体系上,通过整合一般性因素和独特的区域性因素,在普遍性和针对性之间建立了平衡。另一方面,通过 "评估-干预-再评估 "的循环运行路径,建立了规范性防火规范与基于性能的设计调整之间的联系。我们选择了曾发生过严重火灾事故的小寨村为例。通过对其原始火灾风险、既定消防干预措施、实际火灾结果和优化消防方案进行对比分析,验证了评估方法的有效性和可靠性。这项研究揭示了村庄的各种因素与建筑火灾风险之间的相关性。在这些因素中,建筑距离、传统习俗和防火布局等原 FRAME 中未包含的因素对火灾风险有显著影响。本研究的结果可为世界各地具有类似特征的历史村落的火灾预防提供参考。此外,所提出的方法还可为各类历史聚落火灾风险评估方法的开发提供启示,从而促进这些聚落建筑遗产的可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Measurement of flood resilience of metro station based on combination weighting-cloud model 基于组合加权云模型的地铁站抗洪能力测量
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104950
Rumeng Tian , Ying Zhang , Lei Peng , Yan Wang , Wei Wang , Yingying Gu
To further improve the flood safety level of metro stations, this research combined resilience theory and used combination weighting-cloud model method to evaluate metro station flood resilience. Firstly, the connotation of metro station flood resilience was defined. Physical-social-information trio spaces theory was combined with the resilience performance process of resistance, response, recovery and adaptation to determine influencing factors and develop evaluation index system. Secondly, combination weighting method was used to obtain index weight and quantitative model of metro station flood resilience measurement was developed by combining obstacle degree and cloud models. Finally, taking 8 metro stations in Zhengzhou as examples, an empirical research was performed to verify the scientificity and rationality of the proposed model. The results showed that: (1) The flood resilience levels of Zhengzhou metro stations were good as a whole and their response resilience, recovery resilience and adaptation resilience were relatively better than their resistance resilience, which complied with actual situations. (2) Peak hour passenger flow, emergency medical ability, public opinion guidance ability, flood engineering transformation, intelligent information platform construction and other indicators were found to be the key obstacle factors of the flood resilience of Zhengzhou metro stations, which needed to be paid attention to.
为进一步提高地铁车站的防洪安全水平,本研究结合抗洪理论,采用组合加权云模型法对地铁车站抗洪能力进行评价。首先,界定了地铁车站抗洪能力的内涵。将物理-社会-信息三重空间理论与抵抗、响应、恢复和适应的抗灾性能过程相结合,确定影响因素并制定评价指标体系。其次,采用组合加权法获得指标权重,并结合障碍度模型和云模型建立了地铁站抗洪能力定量测量模型。最后,以郑州 8 个地铁站为例,进行了实证研究,验证了所提模型的科学性和合理性。结果表明(1)郑州地铁车站抗洪水平整体较好,其响应抗洪、恢复抗洪和适应抗洪能力相对优于抵抗抗洪能力,符合实际情况。(2)发现高峰小时客流、应急医疗能力、舆情引导能力、防洪工程改造、智能信息平台建设等指标是影响郑州地铁车站抗洪能力的关键障碍因素,需要引起重视。
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引用次数: 0
Co-defining a user-based desirable future for seismic alert systems with stakeholders: application to martinique, French west indies 与利益相关方共同确定基于用户的地震警报系统的理想未来:在法属西印度群岛马提尼克的应用
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104932
Samuel Auclair, Aude Nachbaur, Pierre Gehl, Yoann Legendre, Benoît Vittecoq
Since we cannot predict earthquakes, it is critical to better anticipate them and thus to save time in enabling timely implementation of appropriate protection measures. To this end, several types of tools based on real-time monitoring have been proposed over the past ten years, namely: Operational Earthquake (or Aftershock) Forecasting, (ii) Earthquake Early Warning and (iii) Rapid Response to Earthquakes systems. This paper assesses the opportunity to transfer these three socio-technical systems into operational tools for the territory of Martinique (French West Indies), and more generally for the Lesser Antilles regions.
The research design relies on an user-centered approach based on an in-depth three-steps consultation of stakeholders in the territory of Martinique, by implementing (i) an online survey, (ii) a targeted interview with key actors and finally (iii) a workshop bringing together all stakeholders. This sequential consultation approach enables to start from individual considerations and to progressively refine the diagnosis of the applicability of earthquake alerting tools, first for each type of entity, then for the territory as a whole. Coupled with an analysis of international experience in seismic alerting and the regional context of seismic risk governance, this leads to the elaboration of perspectives at three scales: (i) the local scale of Martinique, (ii) the regional scale of the French West Indies on one hand, and of Lesser Antilles on the other, and (iii) the international scale. In particular, the findings of this study emphasize the need for an “informational continuum” of decision support for practitioners before, during and after the occurrence of earthquakes and their aftershocks. This leads to a reconsideration of Operational Earthquake Forecasting, Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response to Earthquakes systems as intrinsically complementary, while not having the same level of operational applicability.
由于我们无法预测地震,因此必须更好地预测地震,从而节省时间,及时采取适当的保护措施。为此,过去十年中提出了几种基于实时监测的工具,即地震(或余震)业务预报,(ii) 地震预警和 (iii) 地震快速反应系统。本文评估了将这三个社会技术系统转化为马提尼克岛(法属西印度群岛)以及更广泛的小安的列斯群岛地区的业务工具的机会。研究设计依赖于以用户为中心的方法,该方法基于对马提尼克岛利益相关者的三步深入咨询,即实施 (i) 在线调查,(ii) 有针对性地采访主要参与者,以及 (iii) 将所有利益相关者聚集在一起的研讨会。这种循序渐进的磋商方法有助于从个体考虑出发,逐步完善对地震预警工具适用性的诊断,首先是针对各类实体,然后是针对整个领土。结合对地震预警方面的国际经验和地震风险治理的地区背景的分析,我们从三个尺度阐述 了观点:(i) 马提尼克岛的地方尺度,(ii) 法属西印度群岛和小安的列斯群岛的地区尺度,(iii) 国际尺度。这项研究的结果特别强调,在地震及其余震发生之前、期间和之后,需要为从业人员 提供 "信息连续体 "决策支持。这就促使我们重新考虑地震业务预报、地震预警和地震快速反应系统,它们在本质上 是互补的,但在业务适用性方面却不尽相同。
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引用次数: 0
An integrated strategy for evaluating flood susceptibility combining deep neural networks with biologically inspired meta-heuristic algorithms 结合深度神经网络和生物启发元启发式算法的洪水易感性综合评估策略
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105003
Jingkai Hao , Hongyan Li , Chong Zhang , Feng Zhang , Dawei Liu , Libo Mao
Predicting the likelihood of future flooding remains a challenging problem due to diverse hydrological conditions and heightened flood vulnerability. Previous flood susceptibility mapping efforts have often been constrained by limited predictive capabilities and a lack of integration with advanced computational methods. This study developed a flood susceptibility map (FSM) for Xinxiang City, Henan Province, China, improving predictive accuracy by incorporating a long short-term memory network (LSTM) with three biologically inspired meta-heuristic algorithms: the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), the Northern Goshawk Algorithm (NGO), and Snake Optimization (SO). A flood list map containing 300 flood locations was established through the construction of a spatial flood database incorporating 12 explanatory factors for flooding. The relationship between these factors and flood occurrences was examined using the variance inflation factor (VIF), random forest (RF), and frequency ratio (FR) methods. The effectiveness and predictive capabilities of these models were compared and validated using statistical techniques, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The optimized WOA-LSTM and SO-LSTM models outperformed others, achieving a kappa coefficient of 0.966 and an AUC value close to 1, indicating superior prediction accuracy and stability. The model effectively categorized risk regions into six levels, facilitating flood risk management in geologically similar areas. This research contributes to the field by demonstrating the effectiveness of combining LSTM with meta-heuristic algorithms for enhanced flood susceptibility prediction.
由于水文条件的多样性和洪水脆弱性的增加,预测未来洪水发生的可能性仍然是一个具有挑战性的问题。以往的洪水易发性地图绘制工作往往受制于有限的预测能力和缺乏与先进计算方法的整合。本研究为中国河南省新乡市绘制了洪水易发区地图(FSM),通过将长短期记忆网络(LSTM)与三种受生物启发的元启发式算法(鲸鱼优化算法(WOA)、北戈沙克算法(NGO)和蛇优化算法(SO))相结合,提高了预测精度。通过构建包含 12 个洪水解释因素的空间洪水数据库,建立了包含 300 个洪水地点的洪水列表图。使用方差膨胀因子 (VIF)、随机森林 (RF) 和频率比 (FR) 方法研究了这些因素与洪水发生率之间的关系。使用统计技术、接收器工作特征曲线 (ROC) 和 ROC 曲线下面积 (AUC) 对这些模型的有效性和预测能力进行了比较和验证。优化后的 WOA-LSTM 和 SO-LSTM 模型表现优于其他模型,卡帕系数达到 0.966,AUC 值接近 1,表明其预测准确性和稳定性更胜一筹。该模型有效地将风险区域划分为六个等级,促进了地质相似地区的洪水风险管理。这项研究证明了 LSTM 与元启发式算法相结合在增强洪水易感性预测方面的有效性,从而为该领域做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
"Impact of 2022 flood on girls' education: A case study of District Nowshera, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan” "2022 年洪灾对女童教育的影响:巴基斯坦开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦省诺谢拉县案例研究"
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104988
Shehla Gul, Iqra Khalil, Komal Hidayat
Natural hazards, such as floods, significantly impact education systems. They can disrupt schooling, destroy infrastructure, and displace students and teachers. This study aimed to analyze how the severe floods of 2022 impacted girls’ education in District Nowshera of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan. A mixed-methods approach was used for this study including a questionnaire survey to collect quantitative and qualitative data with the help of a questionnaire survey, two focus group discussions, seven semi-structured and in-depth interviews, and personal observations. The results revealed that two girls' schools were destroyed.
In contrast, most of the schools in the selected villages were partially damaged, including damage to parts of the school building, classrooms, furniture, washrooms, or other facilities. Floods also disrupted academic activities due to school closures varying from 5 days to 2 months. The majority of female students encountered challenges such as inadequate uniforms, bags, and stationery, as well as insufficient access to clean drinking water and proper washrooms in schools. Most of the girls also reported mental health issues after the floods such as anxiety, depression, and fear and there were dropouts of girls in some areas as well. As of 2024, the reconstruction of most of the destroyed parts of schools was still not complete. In most areas, the local people worked on a self-help basis to restore educational activities, while the government and NGOs also helped in the recovery process. Teachers motivated the students to return to school after the flood and provided them with their basic needs.
洪水等自然灾害会对教育系统产生重大影响。它们会扰乱学校教育,破坏基础设施,使学生和教师流离失所。本研究旨在分析 2022 年的严重洪灾如何影响巴基斯坦开伯尔巴图克瓦省 Nowshera 地区的女童教育。本研究采用了混合方法,包括借助问卷调查、两次焦点小组讨论、七次半结构化深度访谈和个人观察来收集定量和定性数据。结果显示,有两所女子学校被毁。相比之下,所选村庄中的大多数学校都受到了部分损坏,包括部分校舍、教室、家具、盥洗室或其他设施受损。洪水还导致学校停课 5 天至 2 个月不等,扰乱了教学活动。大多数女生都遇到了校服、书包和文具不足,以及无法在学校获得足够的清洁饮用水和适当的盥洗室等问题。大多数女生还报告了洪灾后的心理健康问题,如焦虑、抑郁和恐惧,一些地区还出现了女生辍学现象。截至 2024 年,大部分被毁学校的重建工作仍未完成。在大多数地区,当地人以自助的方式恢复教育活动,而政府和非政府组织也在恢复过程中提供了帮助。教师们动员学生在洪灾后重返校园,并为他们提供基本生活所需。
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引用次数: 0
Flooding in Sebeya catchment, Rwanda - A review of causes, impacts, and management
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105012
Joseph Hahirwabasenga , Erik Nilsson , Magnus Larson , Hussein Bizimana , Umaru Garba Wali , Magnus Persson
Flooding is one of the natural hazards that pose the most serious threat to human societies in Rwanda, particularly in the Sebeya catchment located in the northwestern part of the country. The main aims of this study are to identify the current flooding issues in the Sebeya catchment in Rwanda and to propose recommendations for improved flood risk management (FRM). The methodology employed encompasses extensive reviews and subsequent analysis of (1) the causes and effects of recent floods, (2) the current flood management framework, (3) previous relevant research, (4) data availability, and (5) opportunities for improvement of the management strategy. A wide range of information was collected from published papers, reports, government publications, and policies. Field observations were also conducted to assess the geographical and hydrological characteristics of the Sebeya catchment. The results show that there is limited knowledge on the impacts of floods in the catchment and that both the availability and quality of data are challenging in carrying out FRM. Therefore, more research on the major drivers and impacts of floods in the Sebeya catchment is required. It is also recommended to increase the number of rainfall and stream gauging stations to facilitate further studies on the hydrological characteristics of the floods and to provide data for modeling efforts. Apart from the Sebeya catchment and Rwanda in general, the methods and results in this study are particularly relevant for FRM in nearby countries facing similar flood conditions, such as Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Uganda.
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引用次数: 0
Modeling hurricane evacuation/return under compound risks—Evidence from Hurricane Ida 复合风险下的飓风撤离/返回建模--"伊达 "飓风提供的证据
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104977
Zengxiang Lei , Rajat Verma , Laura Siebeneck , Satish V. Ukkusuri
Disasters faced by human society are becoming more frequent and complex, raising a need to model the combinations of different types of disasters, such as hurricanes and pandemics. In this paper, we explore various modeling options for predicting aggregated individual evacuation metrics under the compound risks drawn by COVID-19 and Hurricane Ida (2021) using large-scale location-based services data. For each model, we compare its performance with other options and analyze the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values to understand the impact of different explanatory variables on the model outcome. The results suggest that the COVID-19 factors marginally enhance the modeling of evacuation rates and distance, holding similar importance to traditionally recognized factors such as the percentage of senior people and vehicle ownership. Further analysis also suggests the impact of COVID-19 factors diminishes with distance from the coast. Moreover, we observed that the contributions of COVID-19 factors increase significantly when their values reach extreme levels, both very low and very high, suggesting that evacuation patterns were notably impacted under these conditions. Our findings contribute to understanding the impacts of various factors on evacuation patterns during Hurricane Ida, inform model selection for predicting critical evacuation/return metrics, and enrich the knowledge base of evacuation modeling in scenarios involving compound risks.
人类社会面临的灾害日益频繁和复杂,因此需要对飓风和大流行病等不同类型灾害的组合进行建模。在本文中,我们利用大规模基于位置的服务数据,探索了在 COVID-19 和飓风艾达(2021 年)带来的复合风险下预测个人综合疏散指标的各种建模方案。对于每个模型,我们都将其性能与其他方案进行了比较,并分析了SHAPLE Additive exPlanation(SHAP)值,以了解不同解释变量对模型结果的影响。结果表明,COVID-19 因素略微增强了疏散率和疏散距离的建模效果,其重要性与老年人比例和车辆拥有量等传统公认因素相似。进一步的分析还表明,COVID-19 因素的影响随着与海岸线距离的增加而减弱。此外,我们还观察到,当 COVID-19 因素的值达到极端水平(极低和极高)时,其贡献率会显著增加,这表明在这些条件下,疏散模式会受到明显影响。我们的研究结果有助于理解飓风伊达期间各种因素对疏散模式的影响,为预测关键疏散/返回指标的模型选择提供参考,并丰富了涉及复合风险情景下的疏散建模知识库。
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引用次数: 0
Normative learning generates behaviour change: The case of drowning prevention 规范学习促成行为改变:预防溺水案例
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104942
Brian R. Cook , Peter Kamstra , Nicholas Harrigan , Jasmin Lawes , Robert Brander , James Bond , Tom Kompas
Drowning is a risk governance issue of global significance. The majority of coastal drownings occur at unpatrolled beaches. Interventions designed to influence public behaviours are measured in terms of ‘awareness raised’ and ‘intentions to act’ rather than actual ‘behaviours adopted’. As a result, up-scaling impacts defaults to the dubious assumption that the communication of information can raise societal-scale awareness that will result in societal-scale behaviour change. No interventions into coastal drowning prevention, though, have determined the impacts of raised awareness on actual behaviours and, as a result, interventions are presently blind to whether changed behaviours ‘spillover’ to unpatrolled locations; further, no research has applied mixed methods to explain the mechanisms of behaviour changes or spillover effects. We conducted an intervention that combines a 20-min safety lesson with a meaningful engagement involving active reflection. This intervention was paired with a control that involved the engagement only. The study was conducted at Lorne, Australia, and involved 12 lessons with approximately 600 participants; 4–6 months later, participants were contacted to measure impact. After screening for those who had returned to a beach and had had opportunity to alter their behaviours, statistical modelling shows that, relative to the control, the intervention significantly increased the number of risk mitigation behaviours adopted, the number of non-participants told, and the number of behaviour changes adopted at unpatrolled beaches. The major impact pathway of the intervention was normative learning rather than awareness raising. Qualitative analysis explains how the intervention supported normative learning (i.e., through reflection) and the mechanisms through which normative learning supported behaviour change (i.e., self-efficacy and altered worldview). We demonstrate a participatory methodology and innovative mixed-methods approach that results in actual behaviour changes that spillover to non-participants and to the locations where drownings concentrate. More broadly, the implications challenge awareness raising as the basis of risk management.
溺水是一个具有全球意义的风险治理问题。大多数沿海溺水事件都发生在没有巡逻的海滩上。旨在影响公众行为的干预措施是以 "提高意识 "和 "行动意愿 "而非实际 "采取的行为 "来衡量的。因此,扩大影响的假设是,信息传播可以提高全社会的意识,从而改变全社会的行为。但是,目前还没有任何预防沿海溺水的干预措施能确定提高意识对实际行为的影响,因此,干预措施目前还无法确定改变后的行为是否会 "溢出 "到未受监控的地点;此外,也没有任何研究采用混合方法来解释行为改变或溢出效应的机制。我们进行了一项干预,将 20 分钟的安全课程与涉及积极反思的有意义的参与结合起来。该干预措施与仅涉及参与的对照组配对。这项研究在澳大利亚洛恩进行,共有 12 节课,约 600 人参加;4-6 个月后,我们与参加者取得联系,以衡量其影响。在筛选出返回海滩并有机会改变行为的参与者后,统计模型显示,与对照组相比,干预措施显著增加了采用风险缓解行为的人数、未被告知的非参与者人数,以及在无人看守海滩采用行为改变的人数。干预措施的主要影响途径是规范性学习,而不是提高认识。定性分析解释了干预措施如何支持规范性学习(即通过反思),以及规范性学习支持行为改变的机制(即自我效能和改变世界观)。我们展示了一种参与式方法和创新的混合方法,这种方法导致了实际的行为改变,并波及到非参与者和溺水事件集中的地点。从更广泛的意义上讲,这对将提高认识作为风险管理的基础提出了挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial and temporal analysis of vulnerability disparity of minorities to wildfires in California 对加利福尼亚州少数族裔易受野火影响程度差异的时空分析
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104949
Weiwei Xie, Qingmin Meng
Wildfires typically have devastating impacts on communities, both in urban and rural areas, resulting in property loss, psychological distress, physical injuries, and loss of life. A notable gap in the literature is the spatial and temporal disproportionate impact of wildfires on underrepresented communities. This lack of attention is concerning, as these underrepresented populations are likely to be more vulnerable to the devastating consequences of wildfire disasters, exacerbating pre-existing social, economic, and environmental disparities. This study aims to address this gap by conducting a comprehensive spatial and temporal analysis of the vulnerability of underrepresented communities such as the Black, Asian, Hispanic, Native American, among others, in the State of California. We deploy methodological tools such as Getis-Ord Gi∗ to identify areas exhibiting heightened vulnerability across diverse minority groups. Additionally, disparity degrees are measured using Location Amplitude Index among these minority populations. Our findings reveal significant spatial and temporal shifts in vulnerability disparities for Native American communities in Los Angeles County, the Black communities in Orange County, and all minority groups in San Diego County. Shedding light on the underrepresented communities' vulnerabilities to wildfires, this research contributes to the development of targeted and equitable strategies for wildfire preparedness, response, and recovery efforts. Furthermore, this study highlights the urgent need for addressing the environmental justice implications of wildfire disasters and considering minorities’ disparity in wildfire risk management and climate change adaptation planning.
野火通常会对城市和农村地区的社区造成破坏性影响,导致财产损失、心理压力、身体伤害和生命损失。文献中一个明显的空白是野火对代表性不足的社区造成的空间和时间上不成比例的影响。这种关注的缺失令人担忧,因为这些代表性不足的人群可能更容易受到野火灾害破坏性后果的影响,从而加剧原有的社会、经济和环境差异。本研究旨在通过对加利福尼亚州黑人、亚裔、西班牙裔、美国原住民等代表性不足的群体的脆弱性进行全面的时空分析来弥补这一不足。我们采用 Getis-Ord Gi∗ 等方法工具来识别不同少数群体中表现出高度脆弱性的地区。此外,我们还使用位置振幅指数测量了这些少数族裔群体的差异程度。我们的研究结果表明,洛杉矶县的美国原住民社区、橙县的黑人社区以及圣迭戈县的所有少数族裔群体的脆弱性差异在空间和时间上都发生了重大变化。这项研究揭示了代表性不足的社区在野火面前的脆弱性,有助于为野火防备、应对和恢复工作制定有针对性的公平战略。此外,本研究还强调了解决野火灾害对环境正义的影响以及在野火风险管理和气候变化适应规划中考虑少数群体差异的迫切需要。
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International journal of disaster risk reduction
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