International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第5页

Revealing growing and disparate vulnerability in the U.S. power system: A spatiotemporal analysis of nationwide outages from 2014 to 2023 揭示美国电力系统日益增长和不同的脆弱性：2014年至2023年全国停电的时空分析

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105980

Bo Li , Junwei Ma , Olufemi A. Omitaomu , Ali Mostafavi

Power systems are increasingly challenged by a range of external and internal threats that undermine their reliability and resilience. Power system vulnerability, the proneness of the power system to disruptions, can be empirically characterized through the observable manifestations of power outages. However, existing research remains limited in spatial coverage, temporal scope, and analytical consistency, and lacks comprehensive, longitudinal, large-scale, and fine-grained analyses to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of vulnerability. Recognizing this, we analyzed 179,053,397 county-level power outage records with a 15-min interval across 3,022 US counties during 2014–2023. Applying a framework encompassing frequency, duration and intensity, we systematically assessed the dynamics of U.S. power system vulnerability. Results reveal an escalating trend over the past decade, with outages becoming more frequent, prolonged, and intense. Nationally, cumulative customer outage time reached 7.86 billion customer-hours, with a median of 0.64 million per-county over the past decade, underscoring significant service disruptions. Coastal regions, especially in California, Florida, and New Jersey, experienced more frequent and longer outages, while some inland areas exhibited higher outage intensity relative to their customer base. Moreover, we observed a strengthening association between social vulnerability and outage metrics over time, indicating that counties with higher social vulnerability experienced more severe and frequent outages, creating “dual-burden” regions where social disadvantage and infrastructural vulnerability compound each other. These findings provide a nationwide and longitudinal characterization of power system vulnerability in the U.S., offering empirical insights to inform practitioners in prioritizing investments for a more reliable, resilient and equitable energy infrastructure.

电力系统越来越多地受到一系列外部和内部威胁的挑战，这些威胁破坏了电力系统的可靠性和弹性。电力系统的脆弱性，即电力系统对中断的倾向性，可以通过可观察到的停电现象来经验地表征。然而，现有研究在空间覆盖、时间范围、分析一致性等方面存在不足，缺乏全面、纵向、大尺度、细粒度的脆弱性时空动态分析。认识到这一点，我们分析了2014-2023年美国3022个县的179,053,397次县级停电记录，间隔15分钟。应用一个包含频率、持续时间和强度的框架，我们系统地评估了美国电力系统脆弱性的动态。结果显示，在过去十年中，中断变得更加频繁、持续时间更长、强度更大。在全国范围内，累计客户中断时间达到78.6亿客户小时，在过去十年中，每个县的平均中断时间为64万小时，凸显了严重的服务中断。沿海地区，特别是加利福尼亚州、佛罗里达州和新泽西州，经历了更频繁和更长时间的停电，而一些内陆地区相对于其客户群表现出更高的停电强度。此外，我们还观察到，随着时间的推移，社会脆弱性和停电指标之间的联系越来越强，这表明社会脆弱性较高的国家经历了更严重、更频繁的停电，形成了社会劣势和基础设施脆弱性相互复合的“双重负担”地区。这些发现提供了美国电力系统脆弱性的全国性和纵向特征，为从业者提供了经验见解，为更可靠、更有弹性和更公平的能源基础设施的优先投资提供了信息。

{"title":"Revealing growing and disparate vulnerability in the U.S. power system: A spatiotemporal analysis of nationwide outages from 2014 to 2023","authors":"Bo Li , Junwei Ma , Olufemi A. Omitaomu , Ali Mostafavi","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105980","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105980","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Power systems are increasingly challenged by a range of external and internal threats that undermine their reliability and resilience. Power system vulnerability, the proneness of the power system to disruptions, can be empirically characterized through the observable manifestations of power outages. However, existing research remains limited in spatial coverage, temporal scope, and analytical consistency, and lacks comprehensive, longitudinal, large-scale, and fine-grained analyses to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of vulnerability. Recognizing this, we analyzed 179,053,397 county-level power outage records with a 15-min interval across 3,022 US counties during 2014–2023. Applying a framework encompassing frequency, duration and intensity, we systematically assessed the dynamics of U.S. power system vulnerability. Results reveal an escalating trend over the past decade, with outages becoming more frequent, prolonged, and intense. Nationally, cumulative customer outage time reached 7.86 billion customer-hours, with a median of 0.64 million per-county over the past decade, underscoring significant service disruptions. Coastal regions, especially in California, Florida, and New Jersey, experienced more frequent and longer outages, while some inland areas exhibited higher outage intensity relative to their customer base. Moreover, we observed a strengthening association between social vulnerability and outage metrics over time, indicating that counties with higher social vulnerability experienced more severe and frequent outages, creating “dual-burden” regions where social disadvantage and infrastructural vulnerability compound each other. These findings provide a nationwide and longitudinal characterization of power system vulnerability in the U.S., offering empirical insights to inform practitioners in prioritizing investments for a more reliable, resilient and equitable energy infrastructure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105980"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Representing multi-hazard events in urban systems: An ontology-based model 表示城市系统中的多灾害事件：一个基于本体的模型

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105990

Cristine Griffo, Massimiliano Pittore

The United Nations World Cities Report 2022 predicts that global urbanization will increase from 56% in 2021 to 68% in 2050. This will lead to consequences, including the impact of natural, environmental, and anthropogenic risks on cities. These risks will manifest as physical damage to buildings and adverse effects on services to the population and socio-economic structures, as well as losses of life. Cities are adaptive complex systems with intricate interactions between inhabitants and infrastructure, often compared to living organisms. As system complexity increases, understanding and sharing information become more challenging. One alternative to address these challenges is the development of ontological models that use modeling languages to capture the shared semantics of specific parts of the world and their perceived reality, thereby improving understanding and information sharing. Although there are ontological models and taxonomies in the literature that address topics such as cities, population, urban infrastructure, and the geosphere, few represent these elements coexisting and from different perspectives of risk and hazards. Moreover, most of them do not use foundational ontologies, which can lead to inconsistencies and validation drawbacks. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the multi-risk analysis in urban systems and risk reduction by addressing the aforementioned gaps. To this end, a risk-driven ontological model of urban systems is proposed. This model is based on a foundational ontology and integrates the main elements of an urban system. In addition, a thesaurus was implemented and made available online on an open-source platform (Skosmos platform) that is easily accessible to both experts and laypeople. The results were validated with stakeholders through case studies, storylines, and interviews.

联合国《2022年世界城市报告》预测，全球城市化将从2021年的56%上升到2050年的68%。这将导致后果，包括自然、环境和人为风险对城市的影响。这些风险将表现为对建筑物的有形破坏和对人口和社会经济结构的服务的不利影响，以及生命损失。城市是具有适应性的复杂系统，居民和基础设施之间有着错综复杂的相互作用，通常被比作生物体。随着系统复杂性的增加，理解和共享信息变得更加具有挑战性。解决这些挑战的一个替代方案是开发本体模型，该模型使用建模语言捕获世界的特定部分及其感知现实的共享语义，从而提高理解和信息共享。虽然文献中有一些本体论模型和分类，涉及城市、人口、城市基础设施和地圈等主题，但很少有从不同的风险和危害角度代表这些元素共存的。此外，它们中的大多数不使用基础本体，这可能导致不一致和验证缺陷。本文的目的是通过解决上述差距，为城市系统的多风险分析和风险降低做出贡献。为此，提出了风险驱动的城市系统本体论模型。该模型建立在基础本体的基础上，整合了城市系统的主要元素。此外，还实现了一个词库，并在一个开源平台（Skosmos平台）上在线提供，专家和外行都可以轻松访问。结果通过案例研究、故事情节和访谈与涉众进行验证。

{"title":"Representing multi-hazard events in urban systems: An ontology-based model","authors":"Cristine Griffo, Massimiliano Pittore","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105990","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105990","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The United Nations World Cities Report 2022 predicts that global urbanization will increase from 56% in 2021 to 68% in 2050. This will lead to consequences, including the impact of natural, environmental, and anthropogenic risks on cities. These risks will manifest as physical damage to buildings and adverse effects on services to the population and socio-economic structures, as well as losses of life. Cities are adaptive complex systems with intricate interactions between inhabitants and infrastructure, often compared to living organisms. As system complexity increases, understanding and sharing information become more challenging. One alternative to address these challenges is the development of ontological models that use modeling languages to capture the shared semantics of specific parts of the world and their perceived reality, thereby improving understanding and information sharing. Although there are ontological models and taxonomies in the literature that address topics such as cities, population, urban infrastructure, and the geosphere, few represent these elements coexisting and from different perspectives of risk and hazards. Moreover, most of them do not use foundational ontologies, which can lead to inconsistencies and validation drawbacks. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the multi-risk analysis in urban systems and risk reduction by addressing the aforementioned gaps. To this end, a risk-driven ontological model of urban systems is proposed. This model is based on a foundational ontology and integrates the main elements of an urban system. In addition, a thesaurus was implemented and made available online on an open-source platform (Skosmos platform) that is easily accessible to both experts and laypeople. The results were validated with stakeholders through case studies, storylines, and interviews.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105990"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Objective versus subjective landslide risk: A case of Cache Creek Landslide in California” [Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 132 (2026) 105910] “客观与主观滑坡风险：加州Cache Creek滑坡案例”的勘误表[j]。[j] .灾害风险管理，2004,26 (5):591 - 591]

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105989

Timothy D. Stark , Kayley D. Estes , Roxane Cohen Silver , E. Alison Holman , Ben A. Leshchinsky , Farshid Vahedifard

引用次数: 0

Is climate risk perception enough? Empirical evidence from Australian farmers 气候风险感知就足够了吗？来自澳大利亚农民的经验证据

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105918

Salini Khuraijam , Heidi Wechtler , Vaughan Higgins , Hanabeth Luke

This research contributes to debates regarding the disconnect between climate risk perception and actual adaptation strategies among farmers. This disconnect is particularly concerning in the context of increasing climate-related disasters affecting agricultural systems. We challenge the assumption of a direct link and explore alternative factors influencing adaptation behaviour. We investigate the role of climate risk perception, alongside socio-economic and non-climatic factors, on farmers’ adoption of soil health practices in Australia. Using survey data from Australian farmers (n = 531), we employ Poisson regression to model the intensity of adaptation, measured as the count of soil health practices adopted. Our analysis finds that innovation attitude, risk aversion, training attendance, rainfall zone, age, location, and formal education are significant predictors of the intensity of adaptation, while climate risk perception is not directly significant. Our findings suggest a “risk-action gap” where climate risk perception does not necessarily translate into increased soil health adaptations. This highlights the need for targeted interventions beyond awareness-raising, focusing on location-specific needs, risk management, fostering innovation, and improving access to training.

这项研究有助于讨论农民对气候风险的认知与实际适应策略之间的脱节。在影响农业系统的气候相关灾害日益增多的背景下，这种脱节尤其令人担忧。我们挑战了直接联系的假设，并探索了影响适应行为的其他因素。我们调查了气候风险感知的作用，以及社会经济和非气候因素，对澳大利亚农民采用土壤健康做法。利用来自澳大利亚农民的调查数据（n = 531），我们采用泊松回归来模拟适应强度，以采用的土壤健康措施的数量来衡量。分析发现，创新态度、风险规避、培训出勤率、降雨区、年龄、地点和正规教育程度是适应强度的显著预测因子，而气候风险感知对适应强度的影响不显著。我们的研究结果表明存在“风险-行动差距”，即气候风险感知不一定转化为土壤健康适应的增加。这突出表明，除了提高认识之外，还需要采取有针对性的干预措施，重点关注具体地点的需求、风险管理、促进创新和改善获得培训的机会。

{"title":"Is climate risk perception enough? Empirical evidence from Australian farmers","authors":"Salini Khuraijam , Heidi Wechtler , Vaughan Higgins , Hanabeth Luke","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105918","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105918","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research contributes to debates regarding the disconnect between climate risk perception and actual adaptation strategies among farmers. This disconnect is particularly concerning in the context of increasing climate-related disasters affecting agricultural systems. We challenge the assumption of a direct link and explore alternative factors influencing adaptation behaviour. We investigate the role of climate risk perception, alongside socio-economic and non-climatic factors, on farmers’ adoption of soil health practices in Australia. Using survey data from Australian farmers (n = 531), we employ Poisson regression to model the intensity of adaptation, measured as the count of soil health practices adopted. Our analysis finds that innovation attitude, risk aversion, training attendance, rainfall zone, age, location, and formal education are significant predictors of the intensity of adaptation, while climate risk perception is not directly significant. Our findings suggest a “risk-action gap” where climate risk perception does not necessarily translate into increased soil health adaptations. This highlights the need for targeted interventions beyond awareness-raising, focusing on location-specific needs, risk management, fostering innovation, and improving access to training.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105918"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145616562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Volcano Voices, a cost-effective tool to collect and share narratives on the environment. An example from Chaitén, Chile 火山之声，一个收集和分享环境故事的经济工具。一个来自智利chait<s:1>的例子

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105908

Julie Morin , Martin Lucas-Smith , Rory Walshe , Constanza Perales , Loreto Anfrus , Amy Donovan , Laura Bono , Lucy Bigam , Lis Gallant , Álvaro Amigo

This paper details the development and implementation of Volcano Voices, an interactive mapping methodology designed to collect environmental data and disseminate research findings ethically within communities affected by natural hazards. It focuses on Voces de Chaitén, a case study in Chaitén, Chile, as part of a broader effort to memorialise past disasters in the territory and to raise awareness of geological hazards.

The methodology involves creating an interactive map with 360° images enriched with community narratives, scientific insights, and multimedia content. This approach significantly enhances data collection by providing a visually immersive context for interviews, improving the precision of geolocated information, and fostering a more natural dialogue. Furthermore, it counters scientific extractivism by returning research outputs in a user-friendly format, empowering local voices, and integrating diverse perspectives on an equal footing.

The major conclusion is that Volcano Voices offers a cost-effective, flexible, and easily deployable tool adaptable to various research and educational contexts. Its iterative, co-development process, coupled with open-source code, enables effective knowledge exchange, promotes hazard awareness, and contributes to more equitable research practices in disaster risk research.

本文详细介绍了火山之声的发展和实施，这是一种交互式制图方法，旨在收集环境数据，并在受自然灾害影响的社区中以道德方式传播研究成果。它的重点是在智利chait的一个案例研究——Voces de chait，作为纪念该地区过去的灾难和提高对地质灾害意识的更广泛努力的一部分。该方法包括创建一个带有360°图像的交互式地图，丰富了社区叙述、科学见解和多媒体内容。这种方法通过为访谈提供视觉上的沉浸式环境，提高地理信息的准确性，并促进更自然的对话，大大增强了数据收集。此外，它还通过以用户友好的形式返回研究成果、增强地方声音以及在平等的基础上整合不同的观点来反对科学榨取主义。主要结论是，火山之声提供了一种经济、灵活且易于部署的工具，适用于各种研究和教育环境。它的迭代、共同开发过程与开源代码相结合，实现了有效的知识交流，促进了对灾害的认识，并有助于灾害风险研究中更公平的研究实践。

{"title":"Volcano Voices, a cost-effective tool to collect and share narratives on the environment. An example from Chaitén, Chile","authors":"Julie Morin , Martin Lucas-Smith , Rory Walshe , Constanza Perales , Loreto Anfrus , Amy Donovan , Laura Bono , Lucy Bigam , Lis Gallant , Álvaro Amigo","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105908","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105908","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper details the development and implementation of <em>Volcano Voices</em>, an interactive mapping methodology designed to collect environmental data and disseminate research findings ethically within communities affected by natural hazards. It focuses on <em>Voces de Chaitén</em>, a case study in Chaitén, Chile, as part of a broader effort to memorialise past disasters in the territory and to raise awareness of geological hazards.</div><div>The methodology involves creating an interactive map with 360° images enriched with community narratives, scientific insights, and multimedia content. This approach significantly enhances data collection by providing a visually immersive context for interviews, improving the precision of geolocated information, and fostering a more natural dialogue. Furthermore, it counters scientific extractivism by returning research outputs in a user-friendly format, empowering local voices, and integrating diverse perspectives on an equal footing.</div><div>The major conclusion is that <em>Volcano Voices</em> offers a cost-effective, flexible, and easily deployable tool adaptable to various research and educational contexts. Its iterative, co-development process, coupled with open-source code, enables effective knowledge exchange, promotes hazard awareness, and contributes to more equitable research practices in disaster risk research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105908"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145616546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Floods and flats: Housing market responses to flood risk in Japan 洪水和公寓：日本房地产市场对洪水风险的反应

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105997

Yanran Ye , Kenji Takeuchi

A significant portion of the global population resides in coastal areas and faces increasing flood risks. This study applies a hedonic pricing model to examine how flood risk affects residential property prices in Japan, using both plan-scale and maximum-scale flood maps. Our analysis indicates that apartments located within plan-scale flood zones are priced 8.5% lower than comparable units outside these zones, while under the maximum-scale flood scenario, prices decline by about 5.8%. Regional heterogeneity is pronounced, with flood risk effect being markedly stronger in metropolitan areas: properties within plan-scale flood zones experience a price reduction of around 25%, and those within maximum-scale zones see a nearly 20% decrease. Height-based analysis further reveals that the housing market incorporates interactions between expected flood depths and floor levels when valuing properties. In addition, the results suggest that Japan’s 2020 mandatory flood disclosure policy has likely strengthened the extent to which potential flood damage is reflected in property prices. These findings highlight the importance of integrating flood risk into climate adaptation planning, particularly in densely populated metropolitan regions.

全球很大一部分人口居住在沿海地区，面临着越来越大的洪水风险。本研究运用享乐定价模型，利用计划比例尺和最大比例尺洪水地图，考察洪水风险如何影响日本住宅物业价格。我们的分析表明，位于规划规模洪水区内的公寓价格比规划规模洪水区外的同类公寓价格低8.5%，而在最大规模洪水情景下，价格下降约5.8%。区域异质性明显，大都市地区的洪水风险效应明显更强：规划规模洪涝区内的房产价格下降了25%左右，而最大规模洪涝区内的房产价格下降了近20%。基于高度的分析进一步表明，在评估房产时，房地产市场包含了预期洪水深度和地板高度之间的相互作用。此外，研究结果表明，日本2020年的强制性洪水信息披露政策可能加强了潜在洪水损失在房地产价格中反映的程度。这些发现强调了将洪水风险纳入气候适应规划的重要性，特别是在人口密集的大都市地区。

{"title":"Floods and flats: Housing market responses to flood risk in Japan","authors":"Yanran Ye , Kenji Takeuchi","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105997","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105997","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A significant portion of the global population resides in coastal areas and faces increasing flood risks. This study applies a hedonic pricing model to examine how flood risk affects residential property prices in Japan, using both plan-scale and maximum-scale flood maps. Our analysis indicates that apartments located within plan-scale flood zones are priced 8.5% lower than comparable units outside these zones, while under the maximum-scale flood scenario, prices decline by about 5.8%. Regional heterogeneity is pronounced, with flood risk effect being markedly stronger in metropolitan areas: properties within plan-scale flood zones experience a price reduction of around 25%, and those within maximum-scale zones see a nearly 20% decrease. Height-based analysis further reveals that the housing market incorporates interactions between expected flood depths and floor levels when valuing properties. In addition, the results suggest that Japan’s 2020 mandatory flood disclosure policy has likely strengthened the extent to which potential flood damage is reflected in property prices. These findings highlight the importance of integrating flood risk into climate adaptation planning, particularly in densely populated metropolitan regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105997"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A self-organized criticality model of extreme events and cascading disasters of hub-and-spoke air traffic networks 枢纽辐射型空中交通网络极端事件和级联灾害的自组织临界模型

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106009

Mary Lai O. Salvaña , Harold Jay M. Bolingot , Gregory L. Tangonan

Critical infrastructure networks, such as transportation, power grids, and communication systems, exhibit complex interdependencies that can lead to cascading failures with catastrophic consequences. These cascading disasters often originate from failures at critical points in the network, where single-node disruptions can propagate rapidly due to structural dependencies and high-impact linkages. Such vulnerabilities are exacerbated in systems that have been highly optimized for efficiency or have self-organized into fragile configurations over time. The air transportation system in the United States, built on a hub-and-spoke model, exemplifies this type of critical infrastructure. Its reliance on a limited number of high-throughput hubs means that even localized disruptions — particularly those triggered by increasingly frequent and extreme weather events — can initiate cascades with nationwide impacts. We introduce a novel application of the theory of Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) to model and analyze cascading failures in such networks. Through a detailed case study of U.S. airline operations, we show how the SOC model exhibits the power-law distribution of disruptions and the long-tail risk of systemic failures, reflecting the real-world interplay between structural fragility and external shocks. Our approach enables quantitative assessment of network vulnerability, identification of critical nodes, and evaluation of proactive intervention strategies for disaster risk reduction. The results demonstrate that the SOC model successfully replicates the observed statistical patterns of disruption sizes — characterized by frequent small events and rare but severe cascading failures — offering a powerful systems-level framework for infrastructure resilience planning and emergency management. The model provides practitioners with actionable insights for anticipating and mitigating systemic risks in complex, interdependent systems.

关键的基础设施网络，如交通、电网和通信系统，表现出复杂的相互依赖性，可能导致连锁故障和灾难性后果。这些级联灾难通常源于网络中关键点的故障，其中单节点中断可能由于结构依赖和高影响连接而迅速传播。随着时间的推移，这些漏洞在高度优化效率或自组织成脆弱配置的系统中会加剧。美国的航空运输系统，建立在一个中心和辐条模式上，是这类关键基础设施的典范。它对数量有限的高吞吐量枢纽的依赖意味着，即使是局部的中断——特别是那些由日益频繁和极端天气事件引发的中断——也可能引发连锁反应，造成全国范围的影响。我们介绍了自组织临界（SOC）理论的一种新应用，以模拟和分析此类网络中的级联故障。通过对美国航空公司运营的详细案例研究，我们展示了SOC模型如何展示中断的幂律分布和系统性失败的长尾风险，反映了现实世界中结构脆弱性和外部冲击之间的相互作用。我们的方法能够对网络脆弱性进行定量评估，识别关键节点，并评估减少灾害风险的主动干预策略。结果表明，SOC模型成功地复制了观察到的中断规模的统计模式——其特征是频繁的小事件和罕见但严重的级联故障——为基础设施弹性规划和应急管理提供了强大的系统级框架。该模型为从业者提供了可操作的见解，以预测和减轻复杂、相互依赖的系统中的系统性风险。

{"title":"A self-organized criticality model of extreme events and cascading disasters of hub-and-spoke air traffic networks","authors":"Mary Lai O. Salvaña , Harold Jay M. Bolingot , Gregory L. Tangonan","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Critical infrastructure networks, such as transportation, power grids, and communication systems, exhibit complex interdependencies that can lead to cascading failures with catastrophic consequences. These cascading disasters often originate from failures at critical points in the network, where single-node disruptions can propagate rapidly due to structural dependencies and high-impact linkages. Such vulnerabilities are exacerbated in systems that have been highly optimized for efficiency or have self-organized into fragile configurations over time. The air transportation system in the United States, built on a hub-and-spoke model, exemplifies this type of critical infrastructure. Its reliance on a limited number of high-throughput hubs means that even localized disruptions — particularly those triggered by increasingly frequent and extreme weather events — can initiate cascades with nationwide impacts. We introduce a novel application of the theory of Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) to model and analyze cascading failures in such networks. Through a detailed case study of U.S. airline operations, we show how the SOC model exhibits the power-law distribution of disruptions and the long-tail risk of systemic failures, reflecting the real-world interplay between structural fragility and external shocks. Our approach enables quantitative assessment of network vulnerability, identification of critical nodes, and evaluation of proactive intervention strategies for disaster risk reduction. The results demonstrate that the SOC model successfully replicates the observed statistical patterns of disruption sizes — characterized by frequent small events and rare but severe cascading failures — offering a powerful systems-level framework for infrastructure resilience planning and emergency management. The model provides practitioners with actionable insights for anticipating and mitigating systemic risks in complex, interdependent systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 106009"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advancing Earth Observation-based methods for rapid mapping and estimation of flood and drought impacts on rice production in the Philippines 推进基于地球观测的方法，用于快速测绘和估计菲律宾洪水和干旱对水稻生产的影响

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105979

Arnan B. Araza , Elmer Alosnos

Floods and droughts increasingly threaten rice production in the Philippines, yet loss and damage (L&D) estimates for rice production are constrained by traditional administrative reporting. While flood and drought extents can be rapidly derived from Earth Observation (EO) data; hazard severity, such as flood inundation depth and extreme drought intensity, remains more difficult to map in near real-time at large scales. This study accounted for the probabilistic nature of hazard severity and integrated it with crop phenology when applying specific damage curves. Rice production costs and baseline yields were subsequently incorporated to quantify disaster L&D from field to administrative levels. Both flooding associated with Typhoon Odette (Rai) and the 2024 drought in Iloilo Province were used as case studies. We estimate that the typhoon damaged 9.3% of rice area and caused losses due to flooding of PHP 270.9 ± 0.8 million, while the 2024 drought damaged 37.6% of rice area with losses of PHP 390.0 ± 0.3 million. Both estimates are lower than provincial reports (flood: PHP 692 million; drought: PHP 707 million). Influencing our estimates is the fact that 59% of rice was at the seedling stage and inundated by only

<

0.5 m, while during the drought, 85% of rice areas were classified as not highly severe. Moreover, municipality reports may have included unaffected and unverified areas on top of standardized costing practices used. Relative to Typhoon Odette, losses under an extreme flood event (with 1% annual probability) are projected to be up to 3.5 times higher. Hotspots of combined extreme drought and flood events are derived to further support transitions toward impact-based forecasting systems embedded in climate information service platforms.

洪水和干旱日益威胁菲律宾的水稻生产，但对水稻生产的损失和损害（L&；D）估计受到传统行政报告的限制。虽然可以从地球观测（EO）数据快速得出洪水和干旱程度；灾害的严重程度，如洪水淹没深度和极端干旱强度，仍然难以在大尺度上接近实时地绘制。该研究考虑了灾害严重程度的概率性质，并在应用特定的灾害曲线时将其与作物物候相结合。随后，将水稻生产成本和基准产量纳入从田间到行政层面的灾害损失额量化。与台风“奥德特”（Rai）相关的洪水和2024年伊洛伊洛省的干旱都被用作案例研究。我们估计台风破坏了9.3%的水稻面积，造成了270.9±80万菲律宾比索的损失，而2024年的干旱破坏了37.6%的水稻面积，造成了390.0±30万菲律宾比索的损失。这两项估计都低于省级报告（洪水：6.92亿菲律宾比索；干旱：7.07亿菲律宾比索）。影响我们估计的事实是，59%的水稻处于苗期，仅被0.5 m淹没，而在干旱期间，85%的水稻区被归类为不高度严重。此外，市政当局的报告可能包括未受影响和未经核实的地区，以及所使用的标准化成本计算方法。与台风“奥德特”相比，极端洪水事件（年概率为1%）造成的损失预计高达3.5倍。为进一步支持向嵌入在气候信息服务平台中的基于影响的预报系统过渡，我们导出了极端干旱和洪水事件的热点。

{"title":"Advancing Earth Observation-based methods for rapid mapping and estimation of flood and drought impacts on rice production in the Philippines","authors":"Arnan B. Araza , Elmer Alosnos","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105979","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105979","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floods and droughts increasingly threaten rice production in the Philippines, yet loss and damage (L&D) estimates for rice production are constrained by traditional administrative reporting. While flood and drought extents can be rapidly derived from Earth Observation (EO) data; hazard severity, such as flood inundation depth and extreme drought intensity, remains more difficult to map in near real-time at large scales. This study accounted for the probabilistic nature of hazard severity and integrated it with crop phenology when applying specific damage curves. Rice production costs and baseline yields were subsequently incorporated to quantify disaster L&D from field to administrative levels. Both flooding associated with Typhoon Odette (Rai) and the 2024 drought in Iloilo Province were used as case studies. We estimate that the typhoon damaged 9.3% of rice area and caused losses due to flooding of PHP 270.9 ± 0.8 million, while the 2024 drought damaged 37.6% of rice area with losses of PHP 390.0 ± 0.3 million. Both estimates are lower than provincial reports (flood: PHP 692 million; drought: PHP 707 million). Influencing our estimates is the fact that 59% of rice was at the seedling stage and inundated by only <span><math><mo><</mo></math></span>0.5 m, while during the drought, 85% of rice areas were classified as not highly severe. Moreover, municipality reports may have included unaffected and unverified areas on top of standardized costing practices used. Relative to Typhoon Odette, losses under an extreme flood event (with 1% annual probability) are projected to be up to 3.5 times higher. Hotspots of combined extreme drought and flood events are derived to further support transitions toward impact-based forecasting systems embedded in climate information service platforms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105979"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Shaping local disaster risk governance through multi-stakeholder collaboration: Insights from the public-private-civil partnership approach - Application to the case studies of the municipality of Egaleo (Greece) and Centro Region (Portugal) 通过多方利益相关者合作塑造地方灾害风险治理：来自公私伙伴关系方法的见解-应用于Egaleo市（希腊）和Centro地区（葡萄牙）的案例研究

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105973

Juliette Rimlinger , Alexandra Jaumouillé , Catherine Freissinet , João Lutas Craveiro , Ana Catarina Zózimo , Manuel M. Oliveira , Maria Manuel Cruz , Evangelia Bakogianni , Dimitrios Tzempelikos , Evrydiki Pavlidi , Athanasios Sfetsos

In the face of growing climate-related risks, traditional top-down models of risk governance increasingly appear inadequate for enabling effective and inclusive local resilience planning. The public-private-civil partnership (PPCP®) approach was developed to foster collaborative governance by involving stakeholders from the public, private, and civil society sectors in co-designing context-sensitive strategies. This article outlines the conceptual foundations and core principles of the PPCP®, based on a review of governance models and social innovation tools, and details its implementation through a series of locally organized Labs. Drawing on experience from two case studies areas (Egaleo in Greece and two municipalities in Portugal's Centro Region), it highlights outcomes such as improved cross-sector dialogue, the co-production of local knowledge, and more collaborative governance practices. The article also identifies key challenges, including low private sector involvement, institutional inertia, and limited civil society mobilization. It concludes with recommendations to overcome these barriers and strengthen the PPCP®’s transformative potential. These findings contribute to ongoing debates on local governance for climate resilience and propose pathways for embedding more inclusive and adaptive participatory processes.

面对日益增长的气候相关风险，传统的自上而下的风险治理模式越来越不足以实现有效和包容性的地方复原力规划。公私民间伙伴关系（PPCP®）方法旨在通过让公共、私营和民间社会部门的利益相关者参与共同设计对具体情况敏感的战略，促进协作治理。本文基于对治理模型和社会创新工具的回顾，概述了PPCP®的概念基础和核心原则，并通过一系列地方组织的实验室详细介绍了其实施情况。报告借鉴了两个案例研究领域（希腊的Egaleo和葡萄牙中罗大区的两个城市）的经验，重点介绍了改善跨部门对话、共同生产地方知识和加强合作治理实践等成果。文章还指出了主要挑战，包括私营部门参与度低、制度惰性和公民社会动员有限。最后提出了克服这些障碍和加强PPCP®变革潜力的建议。这些发现有助于当前关于气候适应能力地方治理的辩论，并提出了嵌入更具包容性和适应性的参与性进程的途径。

{"title":"Shaping local disaster risk governance through multi-stakeholder collaboration: Insights from the public-private-civil partnership approach - Application to the case studies of the municipality of Egaleo (Greece) and Centro Region (Portugal)","authors":"Juliette Rimlinger , Alexandra Jaumouillé , Catherine Freissinet , João Lutas Craveiro , Ana Catarina Zózimo , Manuel M. Oliveira , Maria Manuel Cruz , Evangelia Bakogianni , Dimitrios Tzempelikos , Evrydiki Pavlidi , Athanasios Sfetsos","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105973","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105973","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the face of growing climate-related risks, traditional top-down models of risk governance increasingly appear inadequate for enabling effective and inclusive local resilience planning. The public-private-civil partnership (PPCP®) approach was developed to foster collaborative governance by involving stakeholders from the public, private, and civil society sectors in co-designing context-sensitive strategies. This article outlines the conceptual foundations and core principles of the PPCP®, based on a review of governance models and social innovation tools, and details its implementation through a series of locally organized Labs. Drawing on experience from two case studies areas (Egaleo in Greece and two municipalities in Portugal's Centro Region), it highlights outcomes such as improved cross-sector dialogue, the co-production of local knowledge, and more collaborative governance practices. The article also identifies key challenges, including low private sector involvement, institutional inertia, and limited civil society mobilization. It concludes with recommendations to overcome these barriers and strengthen the PPCP®’s transformative potential. These findings contribute to ongoing debates on local governance for climate resilience and propose pathways for embedding more inclusive and adaptive participatory processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105973"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of urban gray infrastructure on urban flooding: a city-scale drainage and surface water modeling framework 城市灰色基础设施对城市洪水的影响：一个城市尺度的排水和地表水模型框架

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105907

Haojie Chen, Jacqueline Tsz Yin Lo

Addressing urban floods is an escalating concern owing to the rising incidence of heavy precipitation events and the intricacies of urban drainage and hydrodynamics. This study introduces an advanced city-scale urban flood modeling framework that dynamically integrates the role of gray infrastructure (e.g., roads, buildings, and drainage systems) and real-time storage dynamics in urban drainage networks. The framework features innovative dual-mode flow equations for inlet systems—capturing both surface water inflow and drainage over spillage—alongside a dynamic storage model that adapts to real-time mass balance constraints. When applied to the Hong Kong case study, the proposed model demonstrates high predictive accuracy, as validated against historical flood records from the extreme rainfall event in September 2023 and Sentinel-1 satellite observations. The model yields a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 14 % in spatial inundation mapping. The results reveal the critical role of gray infrastructure and drainage system design in shaping urban flood dynamics, offering insights into low pipe utilization, inlet density effects, and the efficacy of drainage tunnels in flood mitigation. Specifically, drainage tunnels are shown to reduce pipe stress and flood depths by up to 30 %, underscoring their importance in urban flood management strategies. These findings provide quantitative tools and practical guidance for planners and hydrologists aiming to develop flood-resilient infrastructure.

由于强降水事件的发生率不断上升以及城市排水和水动力学的复杂性，解决城市洪水问题日益受到关注。本研究引入了一种先进的城市尺度城市洪水建模框架，该框架动态集成了灰色基础设施（如道路、建筑物和排水系统）的作用以及城市排水网络中的实时存储动态。该框架具有创新的进口系统双模流动方程-捕获地表水流入和溢出的排水-以及适应实时质量平衡约束的动态存储模型。当应用于香港个案研究时，该模式显示出较高的预测准确度，并与2023年9月极端降雨事件的历史洪水记录和Sentinel-1卫星观测结果相比较。该模型在空间淹没制图中的平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）为14%。研究结果揭示了灰色基础设施和排水系统设计在塑造城市洪水动态方面的关键作用，为低管道利用率、入口密度效应和排水隧道在防洪方面的功效提供了见解。具体而言，排水隧道被证明可以减少管道应力和洪水深度高达30%，强调了它们在城市洪水管理策略中的重要性。这些发现为旨在开发抗洪基础设施的规划者和水文学家提供了定量工具和实用指导。

{"title":"Impact of urban gray infrastructure on urban flooding: a city-scale drainage and surface water modeling framework","authors":"Haojie Chen, Jacqueline Tsz Yin Lo","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105907","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105907","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Addressing urban floods is an escalating concern owing to the rising incidence of heavy precipitation events and the intricacies of urban drainage and hydrodynamics. This study introduces an advanced city-scale urban flood modeling framework that dynamically integrates the role of gray infrastructure (e.g., roads, buildings, and drainage systems) and real-time storage dynamics in urban drainage networks. The framework features innovative dual-mode flow equations for inlet systems—capturing both surface water inflow and drainage over spillage—alongside a dynamic storage model that adapts to real-time mass balance constraints. When applied to the Hong Kong case study, the proposed model demonstrates high predictive accuracy, as validated against historical flood records from the extreme rainfall event in September 2023 and Sentinel-1 satellite observations. The model yields a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 14 % in spatial inundation mapping. The results reveal the critical role of gray infrastructure and drainage system design in shaping urban flood dynamics, offering insights into low pipe utilization, inlet density effects, and the efficacy of drainage tunnels in flood mitigation. Specifically, drainage tunnels are shown to reduce pipe stress and flood depths by up to 30 %, underscoring their importance in urban flood management strategies. These findings provide quantitative tools and practical guidance for planners and hydrologists aiming to develop flood-resilient infrastructure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105907"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145584204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0