International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第5页

A bayesian approach for the continuous monitoring of the prediction of the physiological evolution of a crisis victim: A decision support system 预测危机受害者生理演变的连续监测贝叶斯方法：决策支持系统

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104890

Catastrophic events like earthquakes demand innovative tools for crisis management. Mathematical modeling and decision support systems (DSSs) have proved crucial for understanding, predicting and mitigating disaster impact. The quantification of complex phenomena through probabilistic models, to estimate the likelihood of events, provides actionable insights that are essential for disaster risk reduction (DRR).

The present work stems from research conducted within the framework of the Search & Rescue (S&R) project (H2020-SU-SEC-2019), in particular from the development of the PHYSIO DSS module, the medical component of the S&R Decision Support System (DSS). The PHYSIO DSS focuses on predicting the physiological evolution of crisis victims: using a Bayesian approach, it incorporates real-time field observations to forecast patient conditions. This enables the prediction of the evolution of physiological compensation, allowing efficient resource allocation and timely interventions. By providing real-time insights into victim severity, PHYSIO DSS empowers medical personnel to prioritize treatment, potentially saving lives. Its adaptability allows integration into different platforms, from crisis management systems to apps to personal health devices.

This tool has the potential to substantially enhance emergency response capability and overall disaster resilience by offering real-time, data-driven decision support.

地震等灾难性事件需要创新的危机管理工具。事实证明，数学建模和决策支持系统（DSS）对于理解、预测和减轻灾害影响至关重要。通过概率模型对复杂现象进行量化，以估计事件发生的可能性，为降低灾害风险（DRR）提供了可操作的见解。本研究工作源于在搜索与救援（S&R）项目（H2020-SU-SEC-2019）框架内开展的研究，特别是S&R决策支持系统（DSS）的医疗部分--PHYSIO DSS模块的开发。PHYSIO DSS 的重点是预测危机受害者的生理变化：使用贝叶斯方法，结合实时现场观察来预测病人的状况。这样就能预测生理补偿的演变，从而实现有效的资源分配和及时干预。PHYSIO DSS 可实时了解受害者的严重程度，从而帮助医务人员确定治疗的优先次序，从而挽救生命。它的适应性允许集成到不同的平台，从危机管理系统到应用程序，再到个人健康设备。通过提供实时、数据驱动的决策支持，该工具有望大幅提高应急响应能力和整体抗灾能力。

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引用次数: 0

Research on the collaborative relationship of task-driven urban earthquake emergency organizations 任务驱动型城市地震应急组织协作关系研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104887

Earthquake emergency response is a complex process, and a large number of tasks are involved in the process of urban earthquake emergency response. To further study the collaborative relationship between organisations in the city-level emergency collaboration network driven by different emergency tasks, this study first constructs a task–organisation relationship framework and explores the collaborative mechanism of organisations driven by tasks. Then, the co-expression analysis was used to analyse the degree of correlation between task-driven emergency organisations. Finally, considering the influence of tasks on the degree of inter-organisational collaboration, this study constructs a task-driven weighted directed emergency organisation collaboration network. Social network analysis was used to reveal the structural attributes of the task-driven organisational collaboration network, the collaborative characteristics among organisations in the network, and the structural positions of organisations in the collaborative network. It is found that the task-driven earthquake emergency collaboration network was relatively loose, and there were small groups with close collaboration in the network. Most organisations in these small groups are in the same task module, and their tasks are similar. Commanders in the task execution process are usually at the core of the network, and these organisations are usually the main coordinators of the overall emergency collaboration and task module networks. These findings can improve our understanding of earthquake emergency organisational collaboration relationships and inspire the optimisation of urban earthquake emergency management.

地震应急响应是一个复杂的过程，城市地震应急响应过程中涉及大量的任务。为进一步研究不同应急任务驱动下城市级应急协作网络中组织间的协作关系，本研究首先构建了任务-组织关系框架，探讨了任务驱动下组织间的协作机制。然后，利用共表分析法分析任务驱动型应急组织之间的关联程度。最后，考虑到任务对组织间协作程度的影响，本研究构建了任务驱动的加权定向应急组织协作网络。利用社会网络分析揭示了任务驱动型组织协作网络的结构属性、网络中组织间的协作特征以及组织在协作网络中的结构地位。研究发现，任务驱动型地震应急协作网络相对松散，网络中存在协作密切的小团体。这些小团体中的大多数组织处于同一任务模块中，其任务相似。任务执行过程中的指挥者通常是网络的核心，这些组织通常是整个应急协作网络和任务模块网络的主要协调者。这些发现可以加深我们对地震应急组织协作关系的理解，并对优化城市地震应急管理有所启发。

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引用次数: 0

Vulnerability simulation and evaluation of urban metro operation system: A hybrid structural equation model with system dynamics approach 城市地铁运营系统的脆弱性模拟与评估：采用系统动力学方法的混合结构方程模型

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104889

To effectively identify the influence factors of urban metro operation system (UMOS) vulnerability and research the dynamic evolution process of system vulnerability, ensuring the long-term safety of UMOS, a hybrid method integrating structural equation model (SEM) and system dynamic (SD) is proposed to evaluate the UMOS vulnerability. The vulnerability evaluation indexes system of UMOS is established by questionnaire design, which includes four dimensions of personnel, equipment, management and environment. The effectiveness of the method is verified by taking Wuhan metro system in China as an example. The results indicate that (1) The influence of personnel, equipment, management and environment factors on UMOS is 30.2 %, 27.6 %, 21.6 % and 20.6 %, respectively. (2) The passenger flow level and emergency rescue system level have the greatest influence on the vulnerability of UMOS via sensitivity analysis. (3) Extreme weather conditions have the greatest impact on the environment sub-system vulnerability, which in turn affects the UMOS. Hence, the proposed method herein can simulate the long-term vulnerability of the entire UMOS and formulate corresponding improvement measures, thereby achieving sustainable transportation development.

为有效识别城市地铁运营系统（UMOS）脆弱性的影响因素，研究系统脆弱性的动态演化过程，确保城市地铁运营系统的长期安全，提出了结构方程模型（SEM）与系统动态（SD）相结合的混合方法来评价城市地铁运营系统的脆弱性。通过问卷设计建立了 UMOS 的脆弱性评价指标体系，包括人员、设备、管理和环境四个维度。以中国武汉地铁系统为例，验证了该方法的有效性。结果表明：（1）人员、设备、管理和环境因素对 UMOS 的影响分别为 30.2%、27.6%、21.6% 和 20.6%。(2) 通过敏感性分析，客流水平和应急救援系统水平对 UMOS 脆弱性的影响最大。(3) 极端天气条件对环境子系统脆弱性的影响最大，进而影响 UMOS。因此，本文提出的方法可以模拟整个 UMOS 的长期脆弱性，并制定相应的改进措施，从而实现交通的可持续发展。

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引用次数: 0

Developing a multi-level european-wide composite indicator to assess vulnerability dynamics across time and space 制定全欧洲多层次综合指标，评估跨时空的脆弱性动态

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104885

The escalating frequency of extreme climatic events and ongoing urbanisation expose European communities to increasing disaster risks, which are determined not only by the hazardous events themselves, but also by the exposure and vulnerability to these hazards. Consequently, effective risk management strategies cannot overlook a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing vulnerability of the communities. This paper addresses this need by presenting a European-wide framework for the development of a Vulnerability Index (VI) that evaluates vulnerability at both national and subnational scales. Adopting a multi-dimensional and multi-level approach, the VI captures socio-economic, political, environmental, and physical factors contributing to community resilience. A standardised, supranational methodology is employed, providing harmonised cross-country information and time series data for vulnerability and its underlying indicators. This comprehensive assessment facilitates the understanding of socio-economic dynamics, enabling the formulation of targeted policy actions at both country and subnational levels. By offering insights into current vulnerability trends, the VI underlines the importance of governance, economic factors, and disaster preparedness in reducing vulnerability at different administrative levels, while highlighting the role of social factors, such as poverty and social exclusion, in community vulnerability at sub-regional levels.

极端气候事件的频发和持续的城市化使欧洲社区面临越来越大的灾害风险，而这些风险不仅取决于危险事件本身，还取决于暴露于这些灾害的程度和易受影响的程度。因此，有效的风险管理战略不能忽视对影响社区脆弱性的因素的全面了解。本文针对这一需求，提出了一个全欧洲范围的脆弱性指数（VI）开发框架，以评估国家和国家以下范围的脆弱性。脆弱性指数采用了多维度和多层次的方法，捕捉了导致社区复原力的社会经济、政治、环境和物理因素。采用标准化的超国家方法，为脆弱性及其基础指标提供统一的跨国信息和时间序列数据。这种综合评估有助于了解社会经济动态，从而在国家和国家以下层面制定有针对性的政策行动。通过深入了解当前的脆弱性趋势，《脆弱性六》强调了治理、经济因素和备灾在降低不同行政级别脆弱性方面的重要性，同时突出了贫困和社会排斥等社会因素在次区域一级社区脆弱性中的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Long-term communication of aftershock forecasts: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand 余震预报的长期传播：新西兰坎特伯雷地震序列

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104878

On 14 February 2016, a magnitude (M)5.7 earthquake struck in Christchurch New Zealand (Aotearoa in the Maori language). The shaking caused damage to historic facades, power outages, cliff collapses, rock falls, and liquefaction but no reported injuries or fatalities. This Valentine’s Day earthquake was an aftershock in the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES), which began on 4 September 2010 with the M7.1 Darfield Earthquake and included the destructive and fatal M6.2 Christchurch aftershock on 22 February 2011. This study, eight months after the Valentine’s Day earthquake and six years after the initiation of the CES, is the first to explore long-term aftershock forecast information and communication needs. The exploratory study also aimed to gather feedback on aftershock scenarios, an alternative form for communicating the forecast.

The qualitative study involved workshops with emergency managers, public health officials, and members of the public in Christchurch. Key findings for long-term communication throughout an earthquake sequence include: 1. divergent earthquake experiences affect aftershock communication response and information needs; 2. understanding aftershock sequence behavior is foundational to sense-making when large aftershocks occur; 3. strategic earthquake sequence updates from the trusted science agency and local agencies could serve as important reminders for earthquake preparedness; 4. communication of aftershock forecast uncertainty could aid with both the credibility of the information and living with uncertainty, and 5. inclusion of impact information and preparedness advice into aftershock forecast scenarios could provide links to actionable information. The paper derives implications for research and practice of long-term communications during an aftershock sequence.

2016 年 2 月 14 日，新西兰克赖斯特彻奇（毛利语 Aotearoa）发生 5.7 级地震。摇晃造成了历史建筑外墙受损、停电、悬崖坍塌、岩石坠落和液化，但没有人员伤亡报告。此次情人节地震是坎特伯雷地震序列（CES）中的一次余震，该序列始于 2010 年 9 月 4 日发生的 M7.1 级达尔菲尔德地震，包括 2011 年 2 月 22 日发生的具有破坏性和致命性的 M6.2 级基督城余震。这项研究是在情人节地震发生 8 个月后和 CES 启动 6 年后进行的，是首次探讨长期余震预测信息和通信需求的研究。这项探索性研究还旨在收集有关余震情景的反馈意见，这是预报沟通的另一种形式。定性研究包括与应急管理人员、公共卫生官员和克赖斯特彻奇的公众举行研讨会。在整个地震序列中进行长期沟通的主要发现包括1.不同的地震经历会影响余震传播响应和信息需求；2.了解余震序列行为是大型余震发生时感知决策的基础；3.来自可信赖的科学机构和地方机构的战略性地震序列更新可作为地震防备的重要提醒；4.余震预报不确定性的传播可帮助提高信息的可信度和应对不确定性；5.将影响信息和防备建议纳入余震预报情景可提供可操作信息的链接。本文对余震期间长期通信的研究和实践产生了影响。

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引用次数: 0

Enhancing resilience to climate events: A multi-capital approach in social work 增强对气候事件的复原力：社会工作中的多元资本方法

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104883

Climate events have been identified as issues of global concern due to their devastating impacts. Social work seeks to reduce inequalities and promote empowerment to achieve the welfare of individuals and communities. It is, therefore, one of the key professions in reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience to natural hazards. This study explores how social work could enhance individuals’ resilience to climate events through employing the multi-capital approach. This qualitative study uses 43 semi-structured interviews with social workers, non-governmental organisation workers, religious leaders, and service users in Oman. After analysing their experiences thematically, the data indicate that risk is differentially distributed between and within communities. Climate events may affect two communities differently and even people within the same community differently. Based on the concepts of vulnerability and resilience, the impacts of climate events and individual responses would vary based on their capital levels. The findings also indicate that the multi-capital approach can be used as a guiding approach that assists social workers in identifying both strong and low capital and working to strengthen them. Interestingly, although the multi-capital approach does not consider spiritual capital, the findings illustrate that every aspect of human nature must be linked to God in Islamic societies and stresses faith and stability. Some implications for policy, practice, and education have been outlined, such as developing social work curricula by considering the modification proposed to the multi-capital approach. Moreover, integrating spiritual capital into disaster resilience frameworks is crucial for holistic policy development.

气候事件因其破坏性影响而被确定为全球关注的问题。社会工作旨在减少不平等，促进赋权，以实现个人和社区的福祉。因此，社会工作是降低脆弱性和提高抵御自然灾害能力的关键专业之一。本研究探讨了社会工作如何通过采用多元资本方法来提高个人对气候事件的适应能力。这项定性研究对阿曼的社会工作者、非政府组织工作人员、宗教领袖和服务使用者进行了 43 次半结构式访谈。在对他们的经历进行专题分析后，数据表明，风险在社区之间和社区内部的分布是不同的。气候事件对两个社区的影响可能不同，甚至对同一社区内的人的影响也不同。根据脆弱性和复原力的概念，气候事件的影响和个人的应对措施会根据其资本水平而有所不同。研究结果还表明，多元资本方法可以作为一种指导方法，帮助社会工作者识别强资本和低资本，并努力加强它们。有趣的是，虽然多元资本方法没有考虑精神资本，但研究结果表明，在伊斯兰社会中，人性的方方面面都必须与真主联系在一起，并强调信仰和稳定。研究还概述了对政策、实践和教育的一些影响，如通过考虑对多元资本方法提出的修改意见来开发社会工作课程。此外，将精神资本纳入抗灾能力框架对于制定全面的政策至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Grey models for data analysis and decision-making in uncertainty during pandemics 用于大流行病期间不确定性数据分析和决策的灰色模型

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104881

We analyse in this study quite a few uncertain decision-making situations concomitant to a pandemic spread and some of the models using grey theory to deal with such situations. We present four stylised models to tackle different decision support situations at the time of any pandemic crisis, such as COVID-19. Eight diverse problems or situations of risk mitigation and decision-making under uncertainties are proposed in this research and the methodologies employing grey incidence analysis, grey clustering, grey prediction, and grey programming models are offered. Numerical illustrations of the applications of these methodologies are also typified in this paper for future development. A practical application of the widely used grey prediction model is also demonstrated in this study to predict the number of COVID-19 infections and fatalities of five Indian states during a considered period of study. The implications of the study are for data scientists, decision-makers, and practitioners to use the benefits of grey theory in dealing with various situations of uncertainty, such as a spread of a pandemic.

在本研究中，我们分析了与大流行病传播相关的一些不确定决策情况，以及利用灰色理论处理此类情况的一些模型。我们提出了四种风格化模型，以应对任何大流行病危机（如 COVID-19）发生时的不同决策支持情况。本研究提出了八种不同的问题或不确定情况下的风险缓解和决策情况，并提供了采用灰色发生率分析、灰色聚类、灰色预测和灰色编程模型的方法。本文还对这些方法的应用进行了典型的数值说明，以供未来发展参考。本研究还展示了广泛使用的灰色预测模型的实际应用，以预测印度五个邦在研究期间的 COVID-19 感染和死亡人数。本研究的意义在于，数据科学家、决策者和从业人员可以利用灰色理论的优势来处理各种不确定情况，如大流行病的传播。

引用次数: 0

A study of the impact of urban spaces on social resilience in case of natural disasters: Insights from citizens affected by March 2019 flood in Aq Qala City, Iran 研究自然灾害情况下城市空间对社会复原力的影响：伊朗 Aq Qala 市受 2019 年 3 月洪水影响的市民的见解

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104862

The number of urban crises has been notably on the rise all around the globe during the past few decades due to shifts in ecological cycles and social challenges, among other reasons. These crises have had a more pronounced impact on urban areas, which are more vulnerable. The various aspects of resilience have become the focal points in sustainable development research and other related studies, and some solutions have been proposed within the concepts and framework of sustainable development for countering these crises, among which urban resilience is more prominent owing to its inherent functional principles. Among the various aspects of resilience, social resilience is linked to the social capacities of urban regions. A review of the related literature reveals the shortage of studies about the relationship between urban spaces and social resilience. This study aims to uncover the mechanisms through which urban spaces influence social resilience following natural disasters through the perceptions of the citizens affected by the March 2019 flood in Aq Qala, Golestan Province, Iran. To achieve this, we first developed a conceptual model grounded in a review of relevant theoretical literature. Subsequently, a structured 5-point scale questionnaire was designed and distributed for data collection. The collected data was then subjected to structural equation modeling to analyze the conceptual model. The findings highlight the critical factors in forming social resilience from the perspective of Aq Qala residents, with a specific emphasis on city structure, activity, social capital, and social cohesion as integral components.

过去几十年来，由于生态周期的变化和社会挑战等原因，全球城市危机的数量明显增加。这些危机对城市地区的影响更为明显，因为城市地区更为脆弱。抗灾能力的各个方面已成为可持续发展研究和其他相关研究的焦点，并在可持续发展的概念和框架内提出了一些应对这些危机的解决方案，其中城市抗灾能力因其固有的功能原则而更为突出。在复原力的各个方面中，社会复原力与城市地区的社会能力有关。对相关文献的回顾显示，有关城市空间与社会复原力之间关系的研究十分匮乏。本研究旨在通过伊朗戈勒斯坦省 Aq Qala 地区受 2019 年 3 月洪灾影响的市民的看法，揭示城市空间在自然灾害后影响社会复原力的机制。为此，我们首先根据对相关理论文献的回顾建立了一个概念模型。随后，我们设计并分发了一份结构化 5 点量表问卷，用于收集数据。然后对收集到的数据进行结构方程建模，以分析概念模型。研究结果从 Aq Qala 居民的角度强调了形成社会复原力的关键因素，特别强调城市结构、活动、社会资本和社会凝聚力是不可或缺的组成部分。

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引用次数: 0

Landslides and flood hazard mapping using geomorphological methods in Santa Ana, Costa Rica 利用地貌学方法绘制哥斯达黎加圣安娜的滑坡和洪水灾害图

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104882

This study addresses the critical need for comprehensive hazard maps to guide urban and periurban risk management in Santa Ana, Costa Rica. Located near the capital, San Jose, Santa Ana is a rapidly developing municipality characterized by high-value properties, commercial zones, luxury housing, agricultural, and protected areas. However, it faces significant challenges from landslides and floods. Despite its vulnerability, the municipality lacks detailed, holistic hazard assessments. To bridge this gap, we employed geomorphological methods, including morphometry and morphogenetics, integrated with geographic information systems (GIS), historical data, and on-site validation. Our analysis identified that slopes exceeding 20° are particularly susceptible to landslides, with valleys and unstable hillslopes being critical zones for seismic and water-induced destabilization. For flood hazards, areas with low slope and high flow accumulation, such as alluvial fans and flood plains, were found to be highly susceptible. Field and mapping validation against the DesInventar disaster database confirmed the accuracy of our hazard zones. These findings provide essential geospatial insights for effective risk management, decision-making, and territorial planning, enabling proactive and adaptive responses to natural hazards in Santa Ana. While this study does not present radical methodological innovations, its main contribution lies in demonstrating how easy-access and practical geomorphological tools can be used to generate valuable information on risk zoning in regions with limited resources. Furthermore, the methodology and insights from this study are applicable to other urban and periurban regions facing similar geomorphic hazards, highlighting its broader relevance.

本研究探讨了哥斯达黎加圣安娜市对综合灾害地图的迫切需要，以指导城市和城市周边地区的风险管理。圣安娜位于首都圣何塞附近，是一个快速发展的城市，其特点是拥有高价值房产、商业区、豪华住宅、农业区和保护区。然而，该市面临着山体滑坡和洪水带来的巨大挑战。尽管该市十分脆弱，但却缺乏详细、全面的灾害评估。为了弥补这一不足，我们采用了地貌学方法，包括形态测量和形态发生学，并与地理信息系统 (GIS)、历史数据和现场验证相结合。我们的分析表明，坡度超过 20° 的斜坡特别容易发生山体滑坡，山谷和不稳定的山坡是地震和水引起的失稳的关键区域。在洪水灾害方面，冲积扇和洪泛平原等低坡度、高流量积聚的地区极易受到影响。根据 DesInventar 灾难数据库进行的实地验证和绘图验证证实了我们的危害区划的准确性。这些发现为有效的风险管理、决策和领土规划提供了重要的地理空间见解，使我们能够积极主动地应对圣安娜的自然灾害。虽然这项研究并没有在方法上进行根本性的创新，但其主要贡献在于展示了在资源有限的地区，如何利用易于获取且实用的地貌学工具来生成有价值的风险分区信息。此外，这项研究的方法和见解也适用于面临类似地貌灾害的其他城市和城郊地区，从而突出了其更广泛的相关性。

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引用次数: 0

Shifting risks back to the state? Flood insurance and responsibility in the face of climate change in Australia 将风险转回国家？澳大利亚面对气候变化的洪水保险和责任

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104874

In Australia, with its neoliberal policy tradition, responsibility for dealing with severe and extreme weather events such as floods and bushfires has mainly been left to individual households and insurance markets. With the growing number of extreme weather events, existing institutional arrangements and behavioral patterns are challenged. Individuals have difficulties to reliably assess and manage knowledge about such climate change related hazards. In response to the growing uncertainties of rising costs due to increasing flooding and bushfire events, insurers raise their premiums for house and contents insurance or even withdraw from insuring high-risk areas altogether. Based on semi-structured interviews with 26 (re)insurance, legal, financial, and urban planning experts conducted in 2022, the study provides empirical insights in the still under-researched question of how responsibilities are understood and attributed amongst different stakeholders in the context of changing climate. The findings show that extreme weather events and the individualization of risk lead to new, complex patterns of sharing responsibilities amongst banks, insurers and the different governmental levels with a stronger emphasis on state regulation.

在澳大利亚，由于其新自由主义的政策传统，应对洪水和丛林火灾等严重极端天气事件的责任主要由个人家庭和保险市场承担。随着极端天气事件的日益增多，现有的制度安排和行为模式受到了挑战。个人难以可靠地评估和管理与气候变化相关的灾害知识。为了应对洪水和丛林火灾事件增加所带来的成本上升的不确定性，保险公司提高了房屋和财物保险的保费，甚至完全退出了高风险地区的保险业务。本研究在 2022 年对 26 位（再）保险、法律、金融和城市规划专家进行了半结构化访谈，在此基础上，本研究就气候变化背景下不同利益相关者之间如何理解和分配责任这一尚未充分研究的问题提供了经验性见解。研究结果表明，极端天气事件和风险的个体化导致银行、保险公司和各级政府之间出现新的、复杂的责任分担模式，并更加强调国家监管。

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引用次数: 0