Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104916
Lahcene Bouzouaid , Kamal Youcef
Aiming at an efficient management of its oil sector and ensuring safety for its population and property, Algeria is currently engaged in all-out assessment approach. Efficient management and safety prove to be crucial parameters in oil-related activity. The major risks degree of the severity of whatever nature have impacts of various and diverse dimensions. The current study presents an occasional paradox case that which combines all high-risk elements and specific factors associated with them in an urban environment, which is made fragile and vulnerable due to its heavy exposure to a highly probable danger. The city of Hassi-Messaoud, the most important component of the Country's economy, witnesses an alarming spatial development driven by an exceptional population growth. The latter is primarily expressed through the incessant influx of immigrants attracted by promising job prospects in the oil industry sector. Coupled with the uncontrolled population movement, the urban expansion lends itself to the most dramatic aspect of Hassi-Messaoud and eventually exposes it to certain dangers all the more as Hassi-Messaoud is located in an area subject to significant potential oil-based risks.
{"title":"Spatial analysis of major industrial risks of petroleum origin in urban areas - The case of the city of Hassi-Messaoud","authors":"Lahcene Bouzouaid , Kamal Youcef","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104916","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104916","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aiming at an efficient management of its oil sector and ensuring safety for its population and property, Algeria is currently engaged in all-out assessment approach. Efficient management and safety prove to be crucial parameters in oil-related activity. The major risks degree of the severity of whatever nature have impacts of various and diverse dimensions. The current study presents an occasional paradox case that which combines all high-risk elements and specific factors associated with them in an urban environment, which is made fragile and vulnerable due to its heavy exposure to a highly probable danger. The city of Hassi-Messaoud, the most important component of the Country's economy, witnesses an alarming spatial development driven by an exceptional population growth. The latter is primarily expressed through the incessant influx of immigrants attracted by promising job prospects in the oil industry sector. Coupled with the uncontrolled population movement, the urban expansion lends itself to the most dramatic aspect of Hassi-Messaoud and eventually exposes it to certain dangers all the more as Hassi-Messaoud is located in an area subject to significant potential oil-based risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104916"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104903
Mohamadali Morshedi , Makarand Hastak , Satish V. Ukkusuri , Seungyoon Lee
Natural hazards such as hurricanes affect various aspects of the community members’ lives and their post-disaster well-being by causing significant disruptions in the key community activities in the immediate recovery phase. Furthermore, natural hazards leave behind short-term socio-economic impacts such as stress, anxiety, huge recovery expense, and lack of affordable housing. There is a need for incorporating both immediate and short-term impacts of natural hazards when measuring disaster recovery. This study aims to address this need by introducing community well-being as the metric for the recovery of communities from natural disasters. From this perspective, community resilience is defined as the capability of community to reach its pre-disaster state of well-being, in a timely and efficient manner. The study leverages Bottom-Up Spillover Theory and the existing literature to introduce a community well-being model. This model quantifies how the functionality of infrastructure systems can affect various aspects of community well-being based on 6 domains, 17 sub-domains, and 51 indicators. The indicators were quantified using survey data and 211-call data for the City of Houston, and data on the impact of Hurricane Harvey at the zip code level. The results showed that various dimensions of well-being were affected heterogeneously and followed different recovery patterns. The proposed framework can serve decision makers as a dashboard for identifying the well-being domains and sub-domains that should be addressed to enhance post-disaster well-being in the immediate-to short-term. Furthermore, the study introduces the phone call data as an inexpensive and timely replacement for multiple rounds of survey questionnaires for quantifying community well-being.
{"title":"Quantifying post-disaster community well-being: A case study of Hurricane Harvey","authors":"Mohamadali Morshedi , Makarand Hastak , Satish V. Ukkusuri , Seungyoon Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104903","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104903","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural hazards such as hurricanes affect various aspects of the community members’ lives and their post-disaster well-being by causing significant disruptions in the key community activities in the immediate recovery phase. Furthermore, natural hazards leave behind short-term socio-economic impacts such as stress, anxiety, huge recovery expense, and lack of affordable housing. There is a need for incorporating both immediate and short-term impacts of natural hazards when measuring disaster recovery. This study aims to address this need by introducing community well-being as the metric for the recovery of communities from natural disasters. From this perspective, community resilience is defined as the capability of community to reach its pre-disaster state of well-being, in a timely and efficient manner. The study leverages Bottom-Up Spillover Theory and the existing literature to introduce a community well-being model. This model quantifies how the functionality of infrastructure systems can affect various aspects of community well-being based on 6 domains, 17 sub-domains, and 51 indicators. The indicators were quantified using survey data and 211-call data for the City of Houston, and data on the impact of Hurricane Harvey at the zip code level. The results showed that various dimensions of well-being were affected heterogeneously and followed different recovery patterns. The proposed framework can serve decision makers as a dashboard for identifying the well-being domains and sub-domains that should be addressed to enhance post-disaster well-being in the immediate-to short-term. Furthermore, the study introduces the phone call data as an inexpensive and timely replacement for multiple rounds of survey questionnaires for quantifying community well-being.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104903"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104939
Salih Ciftci, Leyla Ciftci
This study aimed to investigate the disaster awareness levels and institutional responsibility perceptions of international students in Turkey. Turkey is a country that is prone to natural disasters, and it is important to receive disaster training to be prepared for disasters. Turkey hosts more than three hundred thousand international students from 198 different countries. Bartın is one of the cities where international students receive education. Bartın is a risky city in terms of disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and landslides. This is why it is highly important for international students living in Bartın to receive disaster training. Other important issues include which institutions they would reach in a disaster situation, how they would reach them, and how they should act during a disaster. It was determined that 40 % of the participants had not received disaster training and were not sufficiently knowledgeable about relevant institutions. It was also observed that some of the responses of the participants were influenced by their gender, age, duration of living in Turkey, whether there was a risk of disasters in their home country, disaster experiences, whether they experienced loss in disasters, and whether they had received disaster-related training.
{"title":"Disaster awareness levels and institutional responsibility perceptions of international students in Turkey","authors":"Salih Ciftci, Leyla Ciftci","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104939","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104939","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aimed to investigate the disaster awareness levels and institutional responsibility perceptions of international students in Turkey. Turkey is a country that is prone to natural disasters, and it is important to receive disaster training to be prepared for disasters. Turkey hosts more than three hundred thousand international students from 198 different countries. Bartın is one of the cities where international students receive education. Bartın is a risky city in terms of disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and landslides. This is why it is highly important for international students living in Bartın to receive disaster training. Other important issues include which institutions they would reach in a disaster situation, how they would reach them, and how they should act during a disaster. It was determined that 40 % of the participants had not received disaster training and were not sufficiently knowledgeable about relevant institutions. It was also observed that some of the responses of the participants were influenced by their gender, age, duration of living in Turkey, whether there was a risk of disasters in their home country, disaster experiences, whether they experienced loss in disasters, and whether they had received disaster-related training.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104939"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142586189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104948
Song Shi, Mustapha Bangura, Sumita Ghosh
Examining cognitive limits in flood risk perception for residential property values, we analyse the Richmond housing market in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Using micro-level home sales data, our study reveals that the market has integrated long-term flood risk into property values. A notable 10.8 % price discount is observed for properties within 1–100 Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood zone, 4.4 % for those in an AEP 500 zone, with no discounts for AEP 1000 flood zone properties. Comparisons of 2019 and 2023 flood maps and property's Time-on-Market (TOM) affirm that people's cognitive limits constrain to the AEP 500 level.
{"title":"Cognitive limits of perceived flood risk on residential property values","authors":"Song Shi, Mustapha Bangura, Sumita Ghosh","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104948","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104948","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Examining cognitive limits in flood risk perception for residential property values, we analyse the Richmond housing market in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Using micro-level home sales data, our study reveals that the market has integrated long-term flood risk into property values. A notable 10.8 % price discount is observed for properties within 1–100 Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood zone, 4.4 % for those in an AEP 500 zone, with no discounts for AEP 1000 flood zone properties. Comparisons of 2019 and 2023 flood maps and property's Time-on-Market (TOM) affirm that people's cognitive limits constrain to the AEP 500 level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104948"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104925
Anıl Tevfik Koçer , Ali Akpek , Alperen Vural , Ayça Aslan , Arzu Erkoç , Aybike Manav Özen , Aynur Şahin , Aysel Oktay , Ayşe Aslı Şenol , Ayşegül Batıoğlu-Karaaltın , Azize Demir , Benan İnan , Bengü Doğu Kaya , Beste Turanlı , Betül Yılmaz , Beyza Karacaoğlu , Bilge Tarçın , Birsay Gümrü Tarçın , Bora Korkut , Burcu Onat , Zeynep Kuzu
Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural hazards that cause loss of life, loss of property and destruction of infrastructure when they interact with vulnerabilities in human systems. The health impacts of these events are not only limited to immediate trauma and injuries, but also affect both physical and mental health in the short and long term. In this context, understanding the short- and long-term public health impacts of earthquakes and developing effective solutions is a priority both nationally and internationally. This review comprehensively examines the health challenges posed by earthquakes, focusing on the earthquakes that occurred in Türkiye on February 6, 2023. It addresses acute responses such as post-earthquake trauma management, emergency health services, potential earthquake-related risks and search and rescue activities, as well as chronic challenges such as sustained physical rehabilitation and psychosocial support in the long term. By analyzing current strategies and outcomes, this study aims to provide important insights into effective health management practices following earthquakes.
{"title":"Public health challenges after the February 6 earthquakes: A comprehensive review of immediate and long-term impacts in Türkiye","authors":"Anıl Tevfik Koçer , Ali Akpek , Alperen Vural , Ayça Aslan , Arzu Erkoç , Aybike Manav Özen , Aynur Şahin , Aysel Oktay , Ayşe Aslı Şenol , Ayşegül Batıoğlu-Karaaltın , Azize Demir , Benan İnan , Bengü Doğu Kaya , Beste Turanlı , Betül Yılmaz , Beyza Karacaoğlu , Bilge Tarçın , Birsay Gümrü Tarçın , Bora Korkut , Burcu Onat , Zeynep Kuzu","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104925","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104925","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural hazards that cause loss of life, loss of property and destruction of infrastructure when they interact with vulnerabilities in human systems. The health impacts of these events are not only limited to immediate trauma and injuries, but also affect both physical and mental health in the short and long term. In this context, understanding the short- and long-term public health impacts of earthquakes and developing effective solutions is a priority both nationally and internationally. This review comprehensively examines the health challenges posed by earthquakes, focusing on the earthquakes that occurred in Türkiye on February 6, 2023. It addresses acute responses such as post-earthquake trauma management, emergency health services, potential earthquake-related risks and search and rescue activities, as well as chronic challenges such as sustained physical rehabilitation and psychosocial support in the long term. By analyzing current strategies and outcomes, this study aims to provide important insights into effective health management practices following earthquakes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104925"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142661558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104929
Ram Krishna Mazumder , Elaina J. Sutley
Measuring and predicting the functionality of buildings is a core aspect of community resilience analysis, which is jointly dependent on structural integrity and essential services provided by critical infrastructure systems. A functional building is one that is used for its intended services. This paper develops a multi-step community-level functionality analysis framework by modelling: (1) building functionality that integrates the building's structural performance, essential water and electric power service performance, and physical accessibility through road networks; (2) portfolio-level building recovery by aggregating functionality of buildings for an entire community; and (3) serviceability of infrastructure systems. Graph theory is applied to assess performance of infrastructure systems. The cascading effect of water pipe failure on the road network is modelled through geographic dependency analysis. Post-earthquake water demand changes due to household dislocation and return, and increased water service demand at essential facilities are captured to model the performance of the water network under stressed conditions. The framework also assesses household-level housing recovery and integrates results with physical damage repair to more holistically depict the functional recovery of buildings from the perspective that buildings must be occupied to be fully functional. The proposed framework is illustrated for a scenario earthquake for the virtual community of Centerville. Findings provide an up-to-date measurement of post-disaster functionality for buildings and critical infrastructure systems that can guide decision-makers during pre-disaster planning and post-disaster recovery. The example demonstrates that consideration of essential infrastructure services significantly alters the functionality of the built environment during the recovery process. For instance, power outages resulted in functionality loss of up to 75 % of physically operable buildings for as much as 14 days. Consideration of physical accessibility loss to nearest road segments resulted in a portfolio functionality drop of up to 9 % for 6 days, and partial water shortage significantly hampered the functionality of the impacted area, including the regional hospital. Approximately 3 % of households were unable to repair their damaged homes and became homeless. The proposed framework enables risk-informed decisions regarding long-term recovery at the community scale with inclusion of those living at the margins and most susceptible to long-term negative consequences from disasters.
{"title":"A multi-step framework for measuring post-earthquake recovery: Integrating essential infrastructure System's serviceability in building functionality","authors":"Ram Krishna Mazumder , Elaina J. Sutley","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104929","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104929","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Measuring and predicting the functionality of buildings is a core aspect of community resilience analysis, which is jointly dependent on structural integrity and essential services provided by critical infrastructure systems. A functional building is one that is used for its intended services. This paper develops a multi-step community-level functionality analysis framework by modelling: (1) building functionality that integrates the building's structural performance, essential water and electric power service performance, and physical accessibility through road networks; (2) portfolio-level building recovery by aggregating functionality of buildings for an entire community; and (3) serviceability of infrastructure systems. Graph theory is applied to assess performance of infrastructure systems. The cascading effect of water pipe failure on the road network is modelled through geographic dependency analysis. Post-earthquake water demand changes due to household dislocation and return, and increased water service demand at essential facilities are captured to model the performance of the water network under stressed conditions. The framework also assesses household-level housing recovery and integrates results with physical damage repair to more holistically depict the functional recovery of buildings from the perspective that buildings must be occupied to be fully functional. The proposed framework is illustrated for a scenario earthquake for the virtual community of Centerville. Findings provide an up-to-date measurement of post-disaster functionality for buildings and critical infrastructure systems that can guide decision-makers during pre-disaster planning and post-disaster recovery. The example demonstrates that consideration of essential infrastructure services significantly alters the functionality of the built environment during the recovery process. For instance, power outages resulted in functionality loss of up to 75 % of physically operable buildings for as much as 14 days. Consideration of physical accessibility loss to nearest road segments resulted in a portfolio functionality drop of up to 9 % for 6 days, and partial water shortage significantly hampered the functionality of the impacted area, including the regional hospital. <u>Approximately 3 % of households were unable to repair their damaged homes and became homeless. The proposed framework enables risk-informed decisions regarding long-term recovery at the community scale with inclusion of those living at the margins and most susceptible to long-term negative consequences from disasters.</u></div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104929"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104917
Chang He , Kunning He , Liqiang Jiang , Qiang Xie , Zhenyu Yang
The seismic isolation devices reduce the seismic vulnerability of the electrical equipment. Accurately assessing the seismic life-cycle cost (SLCC) of the electrical equipment is beneficial in guiding the design and enhancing the seismic resilience of electrical substations and converter stations. To evaluate the effects of the isolator devices on the seismic life-cycle cost of electrical equipment, a SLCC evaluation model was proposed in this study, and the evaluation was conducted on an ultra-high voltage (UHV) bypass switch (BPS) with wire rope isolators (WRI). The model takes into account equipment purchase, maintenance, transportation and installation costs and indirect losses caused by power outages. Afterward, the SLCC and break-even time of the UHV BPS with and without WRIs in different regions were analyzed. The results indicate that beyond the break-even time, the BPS with WRIs becomes more economically viable. Moreover, its economic viability increases as the service life extends. Therefore, in high seismic cost risk areas, it is recommended to adopt seismic isolation devices to ensure the secure and economically efficient operation of electrical equipment.
{"title":"Effects of wire rope isolators on seismic life-cycle cost of UHV bypass switch","authors":"Chang He , Kunning He , Liqiang Jiang , Qiang Xie , Zhenyu Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104917","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104917","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The seismic isolation devices reduce the seismic vulnerability of the electrical equipment. Accurately assessing the seismic life-cycle cost (SLCC) of the electrical equipment is beneficial in guiding the design and enhancing the seismic resilience of electrical substations and converter stations. To evaluate the effects of the isolator devices on the seismic life-cycle cost of electrical equipment, a SLCC evaluation model was proposed in this study, and the evaluation was conducted on an ultra-high voltage (UHV) bypass switch (BPS) with wire rope isolators (WRI). The model takes into account equipment purchase, maintenance, transportation and installation costs and indirect losses caused by power outages. Afterward, the SLCC and break-even time of the UHV BPS with and without WRIs in different regions were analyzed. The results indicate that beyond the break-even time, the BPS with WRIs becomes more economically viable. Moreover, its economic viability increases as the service life extends. Therefore, in high seismic cost risk areas, it is recommended to adopt seismic isolation devices to ensure the secure and economically efficient operation of electrical equipment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104917"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104922
Jing Zhang , Haiyong Cheng , Shunchuan Wu , Guanghua Wu , Rujun Tuo , Weihua Liu , Xinglong Feng , Zhengrong Li
Mines mined by the natural caving method are prone to underground debris flow disasters, resulting in mud gushing blocking roadways, equipment damage and even casualties, which seriously affect the safe operation of mines. To carry out a risk analysis of underground debris flows in mines, quantify the interactions among risk factors in the process of disasters, and identify the main disaster-causing paths, DEMATEL-ISM was used to analyze 18 risk factors related to material sources, geology, water sources and processes. A multilevel network structure model was constructed, and the model was mapped to a Bayesian network (BN). Based on the N-K model, the degree of risk coupling was calculated, the nodes in the BN were coupled and weighted, and diagnostic reasoning for underground debris flows was realized based on posterior probability. The results showed that the risk of debris flow increases with increasing coupling factor. The factors of water source, geology and ore drawing ranked at the top in terms of the probability change rate of the BN nodes, and a main disaster-causing path was obtained by diagnostic reasoning, which provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of underground debris flow prevention and control measures.
{"title":"Risk analysis of underground debris flows in mines based on a coupled weighted Bayesian network","authors":"Jing Zhang , Haiyong Cheng , Shunchuan Wu , Guanghua Wu , Rujun Tuo , Weihua Liu , Xinglong Feng , Zhengrong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104922","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104922","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mines mined by the natural caving method are prone to underground debris flow disasters, resulting in mud gushing blocking roadways, equipment damage and even casualties, which seriously affect the safe operation of mines. To carry out a risk analysis of underground debris flows in mines, quantify the interactions among risk factors in the process of disasters, and identify the main disaster-causing paths, DEMATEL-ISM was used to analyze 18 risk factors related to material sources, geology, water sources and processes. A multilevel network structure model was constructed, and the model was mapped to a Bayesian network (BN). Based on the N-K model, the degree of risk coupling was calculated, the nodes in the BN were coupled and weighted, and diagnostic reasoning for underground debris flows was realized based on posterior probability. The results showed that the risk of debris flow increases with increasing coupling factor. The factors of water source, geology and ore drawing ranked at the top in terms of the probability change rate of the BN nodes, and a main disaster-causing path was obtained by diagnostic reasoning, which provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of underground debris flow prevention and control measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104922"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104934
Johan Björck , Margaret McNamee , Jonathan Wahlqvist , Magnus Larson , Fainaz Inamdeen
Despite extensive efforts through various international initiatives to reduce global warming, it has been determined that human induced climate change is here, that the present scale of disruption of the climate is unprecedented and will continue. Increasing weather volatility can be expected, which will most likely increase exposure to weather related hazards, e.g. wildfires, flooding. The aim of this paper is to present an index-based multi-hazard risk assessment method to assess wildfires and flooding hazard for two municipalities within Sweden. The method is designed to be used by the Fire and Rescue Service (FRS) for planning purposes and can be modified to take the local FRS's capabilities and local conditions into account, thereby improving hazard preparedness at a local level. The analysis presented indicates that, while the frequency of multi-hazard overlap from wildfires and flooding is greatest in more northern parts of Sweden, the method provides important information even when applied to areas with limited overlap. A variation of the hazard assessment using a box kernel sliding window was studied to investigate the sensitivity of the model for rapid variations of an individual hazard level. Given that resource needs will typically spread over several days for large scale natural hazards, the box kernel approach is valuable in helping to identify a span of days when resources associated with incident response might be needed. In the future, the model should be expanded to include additional single hazards, the application to additional municipalities and extension to FRS planning exercises for natural hazards.
{"title":"A methodology for assessing multiple hazards applied to Sweden","authors":"Johan Björck , Margaret McNamee , Jonathan Wahlqvist , Magnus Larson , Fainaz Inamdeen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104934","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104934","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite extensive efforts through various international initiatives to reduce global warming, it has been determined that human induced climate change is here, that the present scale of disruption of the climate is unprecedented and will continue. Increasing weather volatility can be expected, which will most likely increase exposure to weather related hazards, e.g. wildfires, flooding. The aim of this paper is to present an index-based multi-hazard risk assessment method to assess wildfires and flooding hazard for two municipalities within Sweden. The method is designed to be used by the Fire and Rescue Service (FRS) for planning purposes and can be modified to take the local FRS's capabilities and local conditions into account, thereby improving hazard preparedness at a local level. The analysis presented indicates that, while the frequency of multi-hazard overlap from wildfires and flooding is greatest in more northern parts of Sweden, the method provides important information even when applied to areas with limited overlap. A variation of the hazard assessment using a box kernel sliding window was studied to investigate the sensitivity of the model for rapid variations of an individual hazard level. Given that resource needs will typically spread over several days for large scale natural hazards, the box kernel approach is valuable in helping to identify a span of days when resources associated with incident response might be needed. In the future, the model should be expanded to include additional single hazards, the application to additional municipalities and extension to FRS planning exercises for natural hazards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104934"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104912
Jeonghyun Lee , Rodrigo Costa , Jack W. Baker
Post-wildfire housing recovery is a complex process for which systematically collected data remains scarce. Consequently, our ability to anticipate obstacles and plan for housing recovery from future events is limited. This study leverages housing permit datasets collected in Santa Rosa and Unincorporated Sonoma County, impacted by the 2017 Tubbs Fire, and Paradise, impacted by the 2018 Camp Fire. Permit and tax assessor data are combined to gain insights into the recovery processes for these communities. Although the percentage of rebuilt destroyed homes varies significantly between regions, the peak construction demand occurs around 1.5 years after each wildfire, with a substantial decline in the reconstruction rate after 2.5 years. Moreover, the pace of transition from permit application to reconstruction completion is similar across all three regions. Using this finding, we propose a methodology to forecast the number of parcels rebuilt per unit of time based on observations from prior events. A proof-of-concept application of the proposed methodology indicates that it estimates long-term housing recovery patterns based on permit application data collected within one year of the event. These findings indicate that a longitudinal housing recovery data database would help forecast housing recovery from future disasters by providing a source for early empirical validation of predictive models.
{"title":"Post-disaster housing recovery estimation: Data and lessons learned from the 2017 Tubbs and 2018 Camp Fires","authors":"Jeonghyun Lee , Rodrigo Costa , Jack W. Baker","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104912","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104912","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Post-wildfire housing recovery is a complex process for which systematically collected data remains scarce. Consequently, our ability to anticipate obstacles and plan for housing recovery from future events is limited. This study leverages housing permit datasets collected in Santa Rosa and Unincorporated Sonoma County, impacted by the 2017 Tubbs Fire, and Paradise, impacted by the 2018 Camp Fire. Permit and tax assessor data are combined to gain insights into the recovery processes for these communities. Although the percentage of rebuilt destroyed homes varies significantly between regions, the peak construction demand occurs around 1.5 years after each wildfire, with a substantial decline in the reconstruction rate after 2.5 years. Moreover, the pace of transition from permit application to reconstruction completion is similar across all three regions. Using this finding, we propose a methodology to forecast the number of parcels rebuilt per unit of time based on observations from prior events. A proof-of-concept application of the proposed methodology indicates that it estimates long-term housing recovery patterns based on permit application data collected within one year of the event. These findings indicate that a longitudinal housing recovery data database would help forecast housing recovery from future disasters by providing a source for early empirical validation of predictive models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104912"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号