Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104984
Mingjie Wang , Guixiang Chen , Weifeng Liu , Chenxing Cui
Subway stations are prone to serious consequences when occurring a flood disaster due to the isolation of subway stations from the ground. To assess the risk of personnel evacuation when floods invade subway stations and explore the safest evacuation time for people. A numerical simulation model for flood intrusion into a subway station was established in this study based on the Realizable k-ε turbulence and Volume of Fluid (VOF) model, which can be applied to simulate the water flow characteristics in subway stations. The subway station and tunnel model were constructed by taking a subway station in Zhengzhou Metro Line 5 as a research object. The impacts of tunnel floodgate opening/closing, different numbers of water inlets, and different inlet water depths on the flood invasion process were investigated. The flood invasion process, invasion time, and spread pattern of subway stations under various operating conditions were analyzed. Moreover, suggestions for human evacuation within the station were proposed. The results indicate that the closed tunnel floodgate causes an increase in water collection in the subway station. While opening the tunnel floodgate can efficiently relieve flood pressure in the subway station, it is critical to avoid floods pouring through the tunnel to the next station. The increase in water depth and water inlet number led to an increase in the water velocity intrusion into the subway station, resulting in a rapid increase in the water depth in the subway station, and pedestrians ought to evacuate the subway station as soon as possible. The research findings are intended to serve as a reference for the safe evacuation of people when floods invade subway stations.
{"title":"Numerical simulation and disaster prevention strategies for flood intrusion process in subway stations","authors":"Mingjie Wang , Guixiang Chen , Weifeng Liu , Chenxing Cui","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104984","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104984","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Subway stations are prone to serious consequences when occurring a flood disaster due to the isolation of subway stations from the ground. To assess the risk of personnel evacuation when floods invade subway stations and explore the safest evacuation time for people. A numerical simulation model for flood intrusion into a subway station was established in this study based on the Realizable <em>k</em>-<em>ε</em> turbulence and Volume of Fluid (VOF) model, which can be applied to simulate the water flow characteristics in subway stations. The subway station and tunnel model were constructed by taking a subway station in Zhengzhou Metro Line 5 as a research object. The impacts of tunnel floodgate opening/closing, different numbers of water inlets, and different inlet water depths on the flood invasion process were investigated. The flood invasion process, invasion time, and spread pattern of subway stations under various operating conditions were analyzed. Moreover, suggestions for human evacuation within the station were proposed. The results indicate that the closed tunnel floodgate causes an increase in water collection in the subway station. While opening the tunnel floodgate can efficiently relieve flood pressure in the subway station, it is critical to avoid floods pouring through the tunnel to the next station. The increase in water depth and water inlet number led to an increase in the water velocity intrusion into the subway station, resulting in a rapid increase in the water depth in the subway station, and pedestrians ought to evacuate the subway station as soon as possible. The research findings are intended to serve as a reference for the safe evacuation of people when floods invade subway stations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104984"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104945
Tatiane Lúcia de Melo , Liliane de Oliveira Guimarães , Tatiana Tucunduva P. Philippe Cortese
On January 25, 2019, the tailings dam of the Córrego do Feijão mine in the city of Brumadinho, Minas Gerais, Brazil, broke, causing a disaster of great proportions. The dam, classified as "low risk" but of "high potential for damage," had been inactive since 2015 and contained about 12 million cubic meters of iron mining tailings. The rupture resulted in the death of more than 270 people, environmental devastation, and contamination of the Paraopeba River. Thousands of people, including many traditional communities, were affected, resulting in economic, social, environmental, and public health impacts. Disasters like this are socially constructed processes resulting from vulnerability processes. This study investigates disaster governance in the context of civil society organizations in Brumadinho, analyzing the response and recovery actions after the dam collapse. The research used a qualitative approach, with case studies, documents, interviews, and participant observation. The results showed the formation of networks of civil society organizations to respond to the disaster but also revealed instability and a lack of confidence in the governance system. The inadequate response of the Vale company and the local government highlighted the importance of civil society participation and the need for improvement in risk and disaster management.
{"title":"Disaster governance and the role of civil society: A study of the mining disaster in Brumadinho, Brazil","authors":"Tatiane Lúcia de Melo , Liliane de Oliveira Guimarães , Tatiana Tucunduva P. Philippe Cortese","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104945","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104945","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>On January 25, 2019, the tailings dam of the Córrego do Feijão mine in the city of Brumadinho, Minas Gerais, Brazil, broke, causing a disaster of great proportions. The dam, classified as \"low risk\" but of \"high potential for damage,\" had been inactive since 2015 and contained about 12 million cubic meters of iron mining tailings. The rupture resulted in the death of more than 270 people, environmental devastation, and contamination of the Paraopeba River. Thousands of people, including many traditional communities, were affected, resulting in economic, social, environmental, and public health impacts. Disasters like this are socially constructed processes resulting from vulnerability processes. This study investigates disaster governance in the context of civil society organizations in Brumadinho, analyzing the response and recovery actions after the dam collapse. The research used a qualitative approach, with case studies, documents, interviews, and participant observation. The results showed the formation of networks of civil society organizations to respond to the disaster but also revealed instability and a lack of confidence in the governance system. The inadequate response of the Vale company and the local government highlighted the importance of civil society participation and the need for improvement in risk and disaster management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104945"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142706575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104982
Baili Chen , Quntao Duan , Lihui Luo
Levee failures are caused mainly by river water seepage erosion inside the levee, manifesting as slope leakage and foundation piping phenomena. To address the urgent need for levee safety monitoring during flood seasons and extreme rainfall events, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with thermal infrared imagers can quickly detect leakage and piping hazards based on temperature differences between damaged areas and their surroundings. In this study, we collected 5995 UAV thermal infrared images of leakage and piping on levees in four floodplains under various weather, time, and surface coverage conditions to evaluate the applicability of combining thermal infrared imaging with a deep learning model in complex natural environments. We categorized levee hazards into water piping, ground piping, and slope leakage, and developed a Mask R-CNN segmentation model. The results revealed that thermal infrared levee inspection was affected by vegetation occlusion and subtle temperature differences caused by continuous rainstorms and water body depth. The Mask R-CNN demonstrated strong generalizability to hazards with significant variability in shape, size, and temperature difference, making it suitable for detecting evolving and expanding damaged area. The mean average precision, recall, and precision of the Mask R-CNN were 0.977, 0.982, and 0.897, respectively, and the detection time was 0.015 s per image. Moreover, Eigenvector-based class activation mapping (Eigen-CAM) was used to visualize the decision basis and failure modes of the Mask R-CNN to improve interpretability. Seepage damage is a progressive process, so timely hazard identification can provide valuable time for levee repair.
{"title":"From manual to UAV-based inspection: Efficient detection of levee seepage hazards driven by thermal infrared image and deep learning","authors":"Baili Chen , Quntao Duan , Lihui Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104982","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104982","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Levee failures are caused mainly by river water seepage erosion inside the levee, manifesting as slope leakage and foundation piping phenomena. To address the urgent need for levee safety monitoring during flood seasons and extreme rainfall events, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with thermal infrared imagers can quickly detect leakage and piping hazards based on temperature differences between damaged areas and their surroundings. In this study, we collected 5995 UAV thermal infrared images of leakage and piping on levees in four floodplains under various weather, time, and surface coverage conditions to evaluate the applicability of combining thermal infrared imaging with a deep learning model in complex natural environments. We categorized levee hazards into water piping, ground piping, and slope leakage, and developed a Mask R-CNN segmentation model. The results revealed that thermal infrared levee inspection was affected by vegetation occlusion and subtle temperature differences caused by continuous rainstorms and water body depth. The Mask R-CNN demonstrated strong generalizability to hazards with significant variability in shape, size, and temperature difference, making it suitable for detecting evolving and expanding damaged area. The mean average precision, recall, and precision of the Mask R-CNN were 0.977, 0.982, and 0.897, respectively, and the detection time was 0.015 s per image. Moreover, Eigenvector-based class activation mapping (Eigen-CAM) was used to visualize the decision basis and failure modes of the Mask R-CNN to improve interpretability. Seepage damage is a progressive process, so timely hazard identification can provide valuable time for levee repair.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104982"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104909
Murughen Sadien , Jay R.S. Doorga , Soonil D.D.V. Rughooputh
Storm tides, which combine sea level rise (SLR), astronomical tides, and storm surges generated by tropical cyclones, pose significant threats to coastal zones, leading to flooding and substantial damage to property and infrastructure.There is a clear upward trend in the frequency of storms reaching tropical cyclone strength. A notable example is Cyclone Belal, which struck Mauritius on January 2024, during high tide, causing extensive infrastructure damage. This underscores the importance of conducting risk assessments to identify vulnerable areas and develop risk reduction strategies. However, quantitative risk assessments of storm tides are often challenging due to the lack of long-term projections. To address this, we developed a GIS-based flood model for Mauritius to simulate inundation areas and quantify the assets exposed to flooding. Under current conditions, the estimated damage exposure from extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 50–500 years is significant, with 6.2 % and 27.1 % of the area inundated, respectively. By 2100, damage exposure associated with these events is projected to increase by a factor of 1.1, with minimal variation between sea-level rise scenarios (0.3m). However, by 2200 and 2300, damage exposure is expected to rise by factors of 3.1 and 6.6, respectively. In the worst-case scenario for 2500, Mauritius could experience maximum inundation of 66.3 km2, with buildings covering 5.02 km2 submerged. Additionally, this study presents a detemporalized inundation scenario to assess impacts from any coastal flood event. This approach enables the identification of critical thresholds (1.5 m and 4.5 m) and, beyond which significant increases in damage exposure are likely, and allows for evaluating adaptation strategies against user-defined levels of change, rather than relying solely on predefined scenarios. These findings highlight the urgent need for strategic sectoral interventions to address the widespread consequences of coastal inundation, especially in light of critical thresholds for remedial action.
{"title":"Assessment of tangible coastal inundation damage related to critical infrastructure and buildings: The case of Mauritius Island","authors":"Murughen Sadien , Jay R.S. Doorga , Soonil D.D.V. Rughooputh","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104909","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104909","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Storm tides, which combine sea level rise (SLR), astronomical tides, and storm surges generated by tropical cyclones, pose significant threats to coastal zones, leading to flooding and substantial damage to property and infrastructure.There is a clear upward trend in the frequency of storms reaching tropical cyclone strength. A notable example is Cyclone Belal, which struck Mauritius on January 2024, during high tide, causing extensive infrastructure damage. This underscores the importance of conducting risk assessments to identify vulnerable areas and develop risk reduction strategies. However, quantitative risk assessments of storm tides are often challenging due to the lack of long-term projections. To address this, we developed a GIS-based flood model for Mauritius to simulate inundation areas and quantify the assets exposed to flooding. Under current conditions, the estimated damage exposure from extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 50–500 years is significant, with 6.2 % and 27.1 % of the area inundated, respectively. By 2100, damage exposure associated with these events is projected to increase by a factor of 1.1, with minimal variation between sea-level rise scenarios (0.3m). However, by 2200 and 2300, damage exposure is expected to rise by factors of 3.1 and 6.6, respectively. In the worst-case scenario for 2500, Mauritius could experience maximum inundation of 66.3 km<sup>2</sup>, with buildings covering 5.02 km<sup>2</sup> submerged. Additionally, this study presents a detemporalized inundation scenario to assess impacts from any coastal flood event. This approach enables the identification of critical thresholds (1.5 m and 4.5 m) and, beyond which significant increases in damage exposure are likely, and allows for evaluating adaptation strategies against user-defined levels of change, rather than relying solely on predefined scenarios. These findings highlight the urgent need for strategic sectoral interventions to address the widespread consequences of coastal inundation, especially in light of critical thresholds for remedial action.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104909"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104920
Pradeep Kumar Rawat , Khrieketouno Belho , M.S. Rawat
Geoenvironmetally the eastern part of the Himalaya region is highly vulnerable to flood and other natural disasters as it consists of fragmented and tectonically active geology and geomorphology, very high monsoon rainfall (>360 cm) and subsequent runoff, rugged hilly terrain with high ranges of elevation and slope, dense drainage density etc. Other hand, the unplanned developmental activities keep going and scaling up this vulnerability and risk to floods and other disasters. Addressing this burning issue, a geospatial technology-based case study of the Kohima district, Nagaland state (India), is presented here. The geospatial "technology-based" analyses employed in the study are thematic GIS mapping of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk controlling factors; and performing overlay operation using the AHP model in GIS software to generate spatio-temporal map layers of flood vulnerability and disaster risk. Results reveal that the region is under a high rate of monsoon climate change (increasing temperature, rainfall, rainy days, rainfall events and flood events with an annual rate of 0.35 %, 1.12 %, 0.36 %, 2.67 % and 4 % respectively), land use degradation (increasing built-up area with 0.60 %, annual rate decreasing forest, shrubs and water bodies with 0.80 % accumulated annual rates respectively) and demographic changes (increasing urban as well and rural population density with 0.53–2.10 % and 0.55–2.14 % respectively). Accumulated impacts of climate change, land use degradation and demographic changes causing an increase in flood hazard, vulnerability and disaster risk. Flood hazard zones and vulnerability zones extending with 0.50 % (4.89 km2) and 0.84 % (8.16 km2) annual rates respectively, subsequently the flood risk zones categorized as a moderate, high and very high potential risk, have been spreading out with a yearly rate of 0.07 % (0.65 km2), 0.13 % (1.31 km2) and 0.03 % (0.33 km2) respectively. It decreases the area under low and very low-risk zones by 0.17 % (1.63 km2) and 0.07 % (0.65 km2) annual rates respectively. Following up on these annual rates, the spatial distribution of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk zones for the next decade (2031–2040) have also been projected, revealing alarming situations, if flood disaster risk reduction (F-DRR) measures were not implemented in timely. It is strongly believed that the proposed study will be very useful for district-level planners and administrators to implement sustainable development planning, for the scientific fraternity to enhance their research work in the field of flood disaster management and for individuals for their safety in terms of life and property.
{"title":"Geospatial analysis of alarmingly increasing flood vulnerability and disaster risk within the northeast himalaya region of India","authors":"Pradeep Kumar Rawat , Khrieketouno Belho , M.S. Rawat","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104920","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104920","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Geoenvironmetally the eastern part of the Himalaya region is highly vulnerable to flood and other natural disasters as it consists of fragmented and tectonically active geology and geomorphology, very high monsoon rainfall (>360 cm) and subsequent runoff, rugged hilly terrain with high ranges of elevation and slope, dense drainage density etc. Other hand, the unplanned developmental activities keep going and scaling up this vulnerability and risk to floods and other disasters. Addressing this burning issue, a geospatial technology-based case study of the Kohima district, Nagaland state (India), is presented here. The geospatial \"technology-based\" analyses employed in the study are thematic GIS mapping of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk controlling factors; and performing overlay operation using the AHP model in GIS software to generate spatio-temporal map layers of flood vulnerability and disaster risk. Results reveal that the region is under a high rate of monsoon climate change (increasing temperature, rainfall, rainy days, rainfall events and flood events with an annual rate of 0.35 %, 1.12 %, 0.36 %, 2.67 % and 4 % respectively), land use degradation (increasing built-up area with 0.60 %, annual rate decreasing forest, shrubs and water bodies with 0.80 % accumulated annual rates respectively) and demographic changes (increasing urban as well and rural population density with 0.53–2.10 % and 0.55–2.14 % respectively). Accumulated impacts of climate change, land use degradation and demographic changes causing an increase in flood hazard, vulnerability and disaster risk. Flood hazard zones and vulnerability zones extending with 0.50 % (4.89 km<sup>2</sup>) and 0.84 % (8.16 km<sup>2</sup>) annual rates respectively, subsequently the flood risk zones categorized as a moderate, high and very high potential risk, have been spreading out with a yearly rate of 0.07 % (0.65 km<sup>2</sup>), 0.13 % (1.31 km<sup>2</sup>) and 0.03 % (0.33 km<sup>2</sup>) respectively. It decreases the area under low and very low-risk zones by 0.17 % (1.63 km<sup>2</sup>) and 0.07 % (0.65 km<sup>2</sup>) annual rates respectively. Following up on these annual rates, the spatial distribution of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk zones for the next decade (2031–2040) have also been projected, revealing alarming situations, if flood disaster risk reduction (F-DRR) measures were not implemented in timely. It is strongly believed that the proposed study will be very useful for district-level planners and administrators to implement sustainable development planning, for the scientific fraternity to enhance their research work in the field of flood disaster management and for individuals for their safety in terms of life and property.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104920"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104900
Misha Mirza, Stephan Lukosch, Heide Lukosch
The development of emergency preparedness and response skills is crucial for ensuring individual safety and well-being during natural disasters. Realistic and engaging games can effectively promote these skills. This paper explores the impact of introducing additional game objects as distractors and time pressure on user experience and willingness to prepare for emergencies in an Augmented Reality (AR) game. Additional, distracting game elements and time pressure are included in the game scenario to simulate the cognitive demands and stress experienced in real emergency situations. To investigate the impact of distracting game elements and time pressure, a within-subjects study was conducted with 52 participants who played two different versions of an AR game designed to help locate recommended items for an emergency grab bag. In the first version, participants focused solely on finding the recommended items, while in the second version, distractors and a timer were introduced to emphasize the urgency of packing the bag. The results showed no significant difference in user experience between the two versions. However, the version with time pressure and distractors demonstrated a significant improvement in attitudes and perceived behavioral control regarding immediate actions in response to evacuation warnings. Qualitative feedback from participants supported these effects. These findings suggest new directions for further research and highlight the potential of AR games to enhance emergency response strategies.
培养应急准备和响应技能对于确保自然灾害期间的个人安全和福祉至关重要。逼真且引人入胜的游戏可以有效提高这些技能。本文探讨了在增强现实（AR）游戏中引入额外游戏对象作为干扰因素和时间压力对用户体验和应急准备意愿的影响。在游戏场景中加入了额外的、分散注意力的游戏元素和时间压力，以模拟真实紧急情况下的认知需求和压力。为了研究分散注意力的游戏元素和时间压力的影响，我们对 52 名参与者进行了一项主体内研究，他们玩了两个不同版本的 AR 游戏，游戏的目的是帮助找到应急包的推荐物品。在第一个版本中，参与者只专注于寻找推荐物品，而在第二个版本中，则引入了干扰因素和计时器，以强调打包的紧迫性。结果显示，两个版本的用户体验没有明显差异。不过，有时间压力和分心因素的版本在应对疏散警告时立即采取行动的态度和感知行为控制方面有明显改善。参与者的定性反馈也支持这些效果。这些研究结果为进一步的研究提出了新的方向，并强调了 AR 游戏在增强应急响应策略方面的潜力。
{"title":"Exploring the effects of time pressure and distracting elements in an Augmented Reality game for emergency preparedness","authors":"Misha Mirza, Stephan Lukosch, Heide Lukosch","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104900","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104900","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The development of emergency preparedness and response skills is crucial for ensuring individual safety and well-being during natural disasters. Realistic and engaging games can effectively promote these skills. This paper explores the impact of introducing additional game objects as distractors and time pressure on user experience and willingness to prepare for emergencies in an Augmented Reality (AR) game. Additional, distracting game elements and time pressure are included in the game scenario to simulate the cognitive demands and stress experienced in real emergency situations. To investigate the impact of distracting game elements and time pressure, a within-subjects study was conducted with 52 participants who played two different versions of an AR game designed to help locate recommended items for an emergency grab bag. In the first version, participants focused solely on finding the recommended items, while in the second version, distractors and a timer were introduced to emphasize the urgency of packing the bag. The results showed no significant difference in user experience between the two versions. However, the version with time pressure and distractors demonstrated a significant improvement in attitudes and perceived behavioral control regarding immediate actions in response to evacuation warnings. Qualitative feedback from participants supported these effects. These findings suggest new directions for further research and highlight the potential of AR games to enhance emergency response strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104900"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fragility curves (FCs) are extended decision-making tools for estimating the structural performance of systems exposed to seismic hazards. However, selecting an inappropriate FC can significantly affect the accuracy of loss and damage calculations in seismic risk assessments.
This article enhances the “Select.FC” method, a recently proposed novel approach that allows the selection of FCs with a higher degree of reliability. This method utilizes a multidimensional index incorporating a comprehensive set of variables about various aspects of FCs. A calibration and validation process is conducted on the variable scores of this multidimensional index based on a worldwide survey of experts. The implementation of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method further enhances the objectivity and dependability of the scores calculated from the experts' responses.
The proposed approach not only allows for the evaluation of FCs but also provides a practical tool for researchers. This evaluation of FCs is crucial, as it enhances the accuracy and reliability of seismic vulnerability and risk assessments.
The results obtained from the expert survey and the FAHP reveal several discrepancies between the calibrated new scores assigned to specific variables and those proposed in the original methodology. However, in the aggregate, these discrepancies disappear. Therefore, the “Select.FC” method and its proposed classification of FCs into six categories based on the score obtained in the final multidimensional index seem quite robust regarding important changes in the weights of some of the variables.
{"title":"A methodology to assess and select seismic fragility curves: Calibration from expert survey and fuzzy analysis","authors":"Maribel Jiménez-Martínez , Laura Navas-Sánchez , Beatriz González-Rodrigo , Orlando Hernández-Rubio","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104930","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104930","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fragility curves (FCs) are extended decision-making tools for estimating the structural performance of systems exposed to seismic hazards. However, selecting an inappropriate FC can significantly affect the accuracy of loss and damage calculations in seismic risk assessments.</div><div>This article enhances the “Select.FC” method, a recently proposed novel approach that allows the selection of FCs with a higher degree of reliability. This method utilizes a multidimensional index incorporating a comprehensive set of variables about various aspects of FCs. A calibration and validation process is conducted on the variable scores of this multidimensional index based on a worldwide survey of experts. The implementation of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method further enhances the objectivity and dependability of the scores calculated from the experts' responses.</div><div>The proposed approach not only allows for the evaluation of FCs but also provides a practical tool for researchers. This evaluation of FCs is crucial, as it enhances the accuracy and reliability of seismic vulnerability and risk assessments.</div><div>The results obtained from the expert survey and the FAHP reveal several discrepancies between the calibrated new scores assigned to specific variables and those proposed in the original methodology. However, in the aggregate, these discrepancies disappear. Therefore, the “Select.FC” method and its proposed classification of FCs into six categories based on the score obtained in the final multidimensional index seem quite robust regarding important changes in the weights of some of the variables.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104930"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104940
Camila Tavares P , Rafael S.D. Pereira , Christine Bonnin , Denise Duarte , Gerald Mills , Tobi Eniolu Morakinyo , Paul Holloway
Currently, 1 billion residents inhabit informal settlements characterized by a lack of urban services, inadequate housing, insecure land tenure, and heightened vulnerability to climate-related hazards. With minimal governmental support, these communities bear the burden of managing climate risks. This systematic review utilized Scopus and Web of Science databases to identify and synthesize peer-reviewed literature investigating global climate-related hazards in informal settlements over the past 23 years. Search terms included "Informal Settlements OR Slums" AND "Landslide" OR "Heat Stress" OR "Heatwaves " OR "Urban Heat Island" OR "Flooding" OR "Water Scarcity". The review reveals a rising trend in published articles on climate-related hazards in informal settlements, particularly in the last six years. Of the 415 papers identified, the majority (approximately 70 %) focus on flood risk impacts and adaptation measures. We identified six emerging trends, including 1) gender analysis, 2) scaling demographies, 3) adaption actions, 4) transferability, 5) GIS and remote sensing, and 6) building climate resilience. Despite the prevalence of high temperatures in informal settlement areas, studies addressing heat-related hazards, such as heat stress or Urban Heat Island, are underdeveloped. Individuals or households predominantly carry out risk reduction and adaptation efforts, with few transformative, multi-stakeholder initiatives observed. Developing a transferable, community-based climate risk assessment model could significantly enhance resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and disaster risks in informal settlements, emphasizing the need for collaborative, multi-scale strategies.
{"title":"A global (South) collective burden: A systematic review of the current state of climate-related hazards in informal settlements","authors":"Camila Tavares P , Rafael S.D. Pereira , Christine Bonnin , Denise Duarte , Gerald Mills , Tobi Eniolu Morakinyo , Paul Holloway","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104940","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104940","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Currently, 1 billion residents inhabit informal settlements characterized by a lack of urban services, inadequate housing, insecure land tenure, and heightened vulnerability to climate-related hazards. With minimal governmental support, these communities bear the burden of managing climate risks. This systematic review utilized Scopus and Web of Science databases to identify and synthesize peer-reviewed literature investigating global climate-related hazards in informal settlements over the past 23 years. Search terms included \"Informal Settlements OR Slums\" AND \"Landslide\" OR \"Heat Stress\" OR \"Heatwaves \" OR \"Urban Heat Island\" OR \"Flooding\" OR \"Water Scarcity\". The review reveals a rising trend in published articles on climate-related hazards in informal settlements, particularly in the last six years. Of the 415 papers identified, the majority (approximately 70 %) focus on flood risk impacts and adaptation measures. We identified six emerging trends, including 1) gender analysis, 2) scaling demographies, 3) adaption actions, 4) transferability, 5) GIS and remote sensing, and 6) building climate resilience. Despite the prevalence of high temperatures in informal settlement areas, studies addressing heat-related hazards, such as heat stress or Urban Heat Island, are underdeveloped. Individuals or households predominantly carry out risk reduction and adaptation efforts, with few transformative, multi-stakeholder initiatives observed. Developing a transferable, community-based climate risk assessment model could significantly enhance resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and disaster risks in informal settlements, emphasizing the need for collaborative, multi-scale strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104940"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104973
Chenxu Su , Nahyan M. Rana , Stephen G. Evans , Bijiao Wang , Shuai Zhang
Tailings storage facility (TSF) failures in China have historically resulted in downstream consequences, including fatalities, economic harm, and environmental contamination. However, the nation-wide documentation on existing TSFs is incomplete, and the magnitude-frequency statistics of the failures are poorly quantified. These gaps have impeded ongoing efforts of risk assessment and mitigation. This study collates and analyzes new databases on historical TSF failures and existing TSFs in China. We report 143 TSF failures in China over the period 1957–2023, which exceeds the number (∼20) reported in previous studies. Magnitude-frequency statistics indicate that the mean return period for TSF failures in China with at least 10 fatalities is ∼5 years, while for those with released volumes >1 million m3 is ∼16 years. Our review confirms that there are at least 14,217 existing TSFs in China; therefore, the cumulative failure rate of TSFs in China is estimated to be ∼1 %. We supply a database of 1853 TSFs that lists the statistics such as storage volume and dam height. Using these datasets along with downstream demographic statistics, we undertake a regional risk assessment for Jilin Province, which identifies 11 TSFs with intolerable risks. Among these, the most critical TSF poses a potential loss of 175 lives. Our findings provide the most comprehensive picture of TSFs in China to date. We anticipate that this study will advance tailings disclosure practices in China and support screening-level risk assessments by provincial regulators to help prioritize community engagement and risk mitigation efforts.
{"title":"Tailings storage facilities in China: Historical failure incidents, existing status, and database-driven quantitative risk assessment","authors":"Chenxu Su , Nahyan M. Rana , Stephen G. Evans , Bijiao Wang , Shuai Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104973","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104973","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tailings storage facility (TSF) failures in China have historically resulted in downstream consequences, including fatalities, economic harm, and environmental contamination. However, the nation-wide documentation on existing TSFs is incomplete, and the magnitude-frequency statistics of the failures are poorly quantified. These gaps have impeded ongoing efforts of risk assessment and mitigation. This study collates and analyzes new databases on historical TSF failures and existing TSFs in China. We report 143 TSF failures in China over the period 1957–2023, which exceeds the number (∼20) reported in previous studies. Magnitude-frequency statistics indicate that the mean return period for TSF failures in China with at least 10 fatalities is ∼5 years, while for those with released volumes >1 million m<sup>3</sup> is ∼16 years. Our review confirms that there are at least 14,217 existing TSFs in China; therefore, the cumulative failure rate of TSFs in China is estimated to be ∼1 %. We supply a database of 1853 TSFs that lists the statistics such as storage volume and dam height. Using these datasets along with downstream demographic statistics, we undertake a regional risk assessment for Jilin Province, which identifies 11 TSFs with intolerable risks. Among these, the most critical TSF poses a potential loss of 175 lives. Our findings provide the most comprehensive picture of TSFs in China to date. We anticipate that this study will advance tailings disclosure practices in China and support screening-level risk assessments by provincial regulators to help prioritize community engagement and risk mitigation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104973"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142661557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104944
Aino Ruggiero, Wojciech D. Piotrowicz, Lijo John
This study adopts a systemic view to investigate societal resilience within the whole-of-society framework for crisis preparedness, focusing on best practices, challenges, and solutions. Finland serves as the case study due to its pioneering position in crisis preparedness and its adoption of a comprehensive preparedness model that encompasses relationships and interactions among diverse stakeholders. In this study, the Finnish preparedness system is illustrated and analysed through the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS). Data are collected through interviews with security actors representing different stakeholder groups, including civil society, businesses, and the public sector. An interpretative approach synthesises insights from literature, reports, and stakeholder interactions to co-create knowledge. The analysis covers the CAS tenets of context, relational constitution, adaptive capacity, emergence, and openness. The study presents an exploratory model anchored in CAS theory, incorporating key practices, processes, and adaptation loops integral to societal resilience from a systemic perspective in the Finnish context. From a theoretical point of view, this study contributes to CAS theory by exploring the role of context as a slow-changing variable, which is often considered a constant in CAS. Furthermore, while emergent behaviour is a critical component of CAS, most studies explore the emergent behaviour of a system within a short time span. However, the findings of this study highlight the importance of long-term emergent behaviour in addition to short-term behaviour. From a practical standpoint, this study not only explores best practices but also identifies the challenges of the Finnish system and provides a benchmark for other countries to develop their own crisis preparedness. However, replicating the system elsewhere may be challenging due to certain unique contextual factors.
本研究采用系统观点，在全社会危机准备框架内调查社会复原力，重点关注最佳实践、挑战和解决方案。芬兰在危机防备方面处于领先地位，并采用了包含不同利益相关者之间关系和互动的综合防备模式，因此将其作为案例进行研究。本研究从复杂适应系统（CAS）的角度对芬兰的备灾系统进行了说明和分析。数据是通过与代表不同利益相关者群体（包括民间社会、企业和公共部门）的安全行动者进行访谈收集的。解释性方法综合了从文献、报告和利益相关者互动中获得的见解，以共同创造知识。分析涵盖了文脉、关系构成、适应能力、新兴性和开放性等 CAS 原则。研究提出了一个以CAS理论为基础的探索性模型，从芬兰的系统角度出发，纳入了社会复原力不可或缺的关键实践、流程和适应循环。从理论的角度来看，本研究通过探索环境作为一个缓慢变化的变量所发挥的作用，为 CAS 理论做出了贡献。此外，虽然突发行为是 CAS 的重要组成部分，但大多数研究都是探讨系统在短时间内的突发行为。然而，本研究的结果强调了除短期行为外，长期突发行为的重要性。从实用的角度来看，这项研究不仅探讨了最佳做法，还明确了芬兰系统所面临的挑战，为其他国家发展本国的危机准备工作提供了一个基准。然而，由于某些独特的背景因素，在其他地方复制该系统可能具有挑战性。
{"title":"Enhancing societal resilience through the whole-of-society approach to crisis preparedness: Complex adaptive systems perspective – The case of Finland","authors":"Aino Ruggiero, Wojciech D. Piotrowicz, Lijo John","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104944","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104944","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study adopts a systemic view to investigate societal resilience within the whole-of-society framework for crisis preparedness, focusing on best practices, challenges, and solutions. Finland serves as the case study due to its pioneering position in crisis preparedness and its adoption of a comprehensive preparedness model that encompasses relationships and interactions among diverse stakeholders. In this study, the Finnish preparedness system is illustrated and analysed through the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS). Data are collected through interviews with security actors representing different stakeholder groups, including civil society, businesses, and the public sector. An interpretative approach synthesises insights from literature, reports, and stakeholder interactions to co-create knowledge. The analysis covers the CAS tenets of context, relational constitution, adaptive capacity, emergence, and openness. The study presents an exploratory model anchored in CAS theory, incorporating key practices, processes, and adaptation loops integral to societal resilience from a systemic perspective in the Finnish context. From a theoretical point of view, this study contributes to CAS theory by exploring the role of context as a slow-changing variable, which is often considered a constant in CAS. Furthermore, while emergent behaviour is a critical component of CAS, most studies explore the emergent behaviour of a system within a short time span. However, the findings of this study highlight the importance of long-term emergent behaviour in addition to short-term behaviour. From a practical standpoint, this study not only explores best practices but also identifies the challenges of the Finnish system and provides a benchmark for other countries to develop their own crisis preparedness. However, replicating the system elsewhere may be challenging due to certain unique contextual factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104944"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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