International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第4页

Ecological risk networks: A network structure model for simulating negative ecological linkages among ecologically sensitive areas

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105316

Xieyang Chen, Bingchen Zhu, Tongsheng Li, Xinzheng Zhao

Research on structural modeling of negative ecological flow networks across ecologically sensitive regions can reveal potential ecological risks in the region. We define this network structure model that simulates the interconnections of structural functions between discrete and isolated ecologically sensitive areas, and the negative ecological flows between them, as an ecological risk network. We chose an inland province, Shaanxi Province, at the junction of north and south China, as a research case. This article adopts the method of physical quality assessment to assess the ecological sensitivity of the research case. It identifies the risk source sites based on the evaluation results. Subsequently, potential risk corridors are determined based on circuit theory and the Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model. Finally, we constructed an ecological restoration pattern in Shaanxi Province and made targeted recommendations. 34 ecological risk sources, 50 nodes, and 77 corridors were identified. The research results indicate that there are more ecological risk networks in the northern part of the province, followed by the central part, and very few in the southern part. By analyzing the resistance surface of the ecological risk network, we found that the spatial distribution was formed because the Huanglongshan-Ziwuling mountain range hindered the connection between the dense ecological risk network area in the northern region of Shaanxi and the sparse area in the central region of Shaanxi. And the Qinling mountain range impeded the flow and diffusion of negative ecological flows in the northern part of Shaanxi and the central part of Shaanxi to the southern part of Shaanxi. The results of constructing the ecological restoration pattern show that cropland and grasslands are the most dominant ecological restoration patches. Some ecological restoration corridors and ecological restoration nodes overlap with the water and transportation networks. Targeted prevention and restoration strategies can be proposed in response to the above findings. This study is a practice and exploration of ecological risk network research. The results of this research can provide a theoretical reference for ecological restoration.

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引用次数: 0

Societal risk-to-life from natural hazards: Assessments, acceptability and actions at Whakaari/White Island and Piopiotahi/Milford Sound, Aotearoa/New Zealand

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105325

Tim Davies , Jesse Dykstra

Conventional tourism risk-to-life analyses require data that are often unavailable, inaccurate or out-of-date. Thus tourist fatalities can occur where risk analyses have not been completed, as at Whakaari/White Island volcano, New Zealand in 2019, when 22 people on commercial tours died because of a sudden eruption. Even where risk analyses have been carried out (as at Piopiotahi/Milford Sound, New Zealand, a World Heritage Site where thousands of lives are endangered by coseismic landslide-triggered tsunami) unacceptable risks remain because (i) analyses can be misinterpreted, (ii) risk calculations change with time, and (iii) sociopolitical factors influence risk management decision-making.

Herein we (i) develop a methodology for reconnaissance ("average") risk-to-life assessment, to indicate where more complete assessments are required, and (ii) test this against (a) the empirical acceptability of risks following a disaster and (b) a series of risk analyses where no disaster has yet occurred.

We develop an “average” risk-to-life assessment for Whakaari/White Island, and compare its outcomes with existing risk analyses for Piopiotahi/Milford Sound. It agrees with post-event risk acceptability at Whakaari/White Island, and with pre-event risk analyses at Piopiotahi/Milford Sound.

We update the “average” risk analysis for Piopiotahi/Milford Sound by incorporating vulnerabilities of cruise ships and improved hazard data - the societal risk-to-life is unacceptable by several orders of magnitude. The only feasible strategy for achieving acceptable risk is drastically reducing visitor numbers. Socio-economic considerations suggest that this may not be societally practicable, which calls into question the way in which risk is used in planning to reduce tourism fatalities.

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引用次数: 0

Probabilistic seismic risk assessment of Africa

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105303

Nicole Paul , Vitor Silva

Several destructive earthquakes have occurred throughout the African continent over the past century. However, few comprehensive seismic risk models exist for the region. This study presents a probabilistic earthquake loss model for Africa, which is comprised of open model components and data sets that enable the calculation of a range of risk metrics useful for disaster risk management. Across the continent, Algeria faces the most significant predicted building damage, economic loss, population displacement, and fatality risks due to earthquakes. After Algeria, the order of highest risk countries depends on the considered risk metric, with countries such as Egypt, Morocco, and Uganda joining Algeria in the top three. When measured in relative terms, smaller countries that face disproportionate risks are highlighted, such as Djibouti, Burundi, Rwanda, and Malawi. These countries are exposed to moderate seismic hazard, but have limited evidence of earthquake-resistant design and construction practices that imply significant risk of damages in future earthquakes.

引用次数: 0

Ground subsidence and disaster risk induced by groundwater overexploitation: A comprehensive assessment from arid oasis regions

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-02-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105328

Binbin Fan , Xuguo Shi , Geping Luo , Olaf Hellwich , Xiaofei Ma , Ming Shang , Yuangang Wang , Friday U. Ochege

Water resources in arid regions are limited, with socio-economic development largely dependent on groundwater extraction, particularly in irrigated oases. Excessive groundwater use can lead to aquifer depletion and land subsidence, yet the mechanisms linking subsidence to groundwater changes across different hydrological units remain inadequately understood. This study investigates the spatiotemporal deformation characteristics in the Sangong River Watershed, China, using InSAR data from 2004 to 2021. The results indicate that subsidence primarily occurs in the upper alluvial plain oases, exhibiting cyclic patterns that correspond with agricultural activities. Subsidence has intensified in recent years, with more severe impacts observed between 2014 and 2021 compared to 2004 to 2010. Regression coefficients between groundwater levels and subsidence vary significantly, influenced by the transition from a single-layered phreatic aquifer to a multilayered phreatic-confined aquifer system. Field investigations at Liuyuhu Farm and Binghu Reservoir highlighted severe infrastructure damage caused by seasonal and differential subsidence. Overexploitation of groundwater before 2006 initiated subsidence, which worsened as cropland expanded by 32.6 % and groundwater extraction increased by 353 % from 2006 to 2014. Although government interventions from 2015 to 2021 reduced extraction rates, drought conditions from 2019 to 2021 exacerbated subsidence, resulting in a cumulative deformation volume of 5.1 × 10⁷ m³ by 2021. The findings underscore the inadequacy of current water resources to meet agricultural demands, leading to continued extraction from static groundwater reserves, which intensifies surface subsidence. This situation necessitates urgent and more effective groundwater management strategies to mitigate further ground subsidence.

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引用次数: 0

Neglecting property-level food risk adaptation measures lead to overestimation in flood risk analysis – An empirical study

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105326

Nele Rindsfüser , Markus Mosimann , Sibilla Ernst , Margreth Keiler , Andreas Paul Zischg

Combining structural and non-structural mitigation measures is a strategy for managing flood risk. Besides structural flood alleviation schemes and land-use planning, property-level flood risk adaptation (PLFRA) measures are complementary measures for effective flood risk management. However, quantitative knowledge about the implementation and damage-reducing effects on building structure of PLFRA measures is scarce. Accordingly, the mitigation of vulnerability is rarely considered in flood risk assessment. Here, we collect data on PLFRA measures through a field survey, present a method for incorporating PLFRA into flood risk analysis, and conduct an analysis of their damage-reducing effects. With this approach, flood risk analysis is based on known object-specific vulnerability, rather than on assumptions on overall risk reduction by PLFRA measures. The results show that 16 % of the buildings are protected through PLFRA measures, and the expected annual damage (EAD) is reduced by around 18 %. On average, the PLFRA measures protect the respective houses against flood damage up to a flow depth of 0.6m. Further, 17 % of the buildings had a level of protection that could not be attributed to explicit PLFRA measures but was still considered effective. The average protection level of all buildings is up to 0.3m, and the EAD is reduced by around 23 %. If all buildings in the hazard zones were protected by PLFRA measures with a protection level of 0.5m, the EAD could be reduced by 50 %. The results presented provide robust evidence that neglecting PLFRA measures in flood risk analysis leads to an overestimation of flood risk.

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引用次数: 0

Pre-disaster flood prevention funds allocation and benefit analysis considering social vulnerability to enhance urban sustainable flood resilience

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105324

Jiahao Zhong , Yanmei Yang , Zegen Wang , Junnan Xiong , Yinxiang Xu , Jingtao Hao , Yongkang Ma , Gaoyun Shen , Zhiwei Yong

In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization, floods are increasingly frequent and intense, and the scientific allocation of pre-disaster flood prevention funds is essential for enhancing cities' preparedness for sustained flood protection. However, existing studies often overlook urban social vulnerability in allocating funds for pre-disaster flood prevention and quantitatively analyze the benefits of the allocated flood prevention funds. To solve this problem, relevant indicators like socioeconomic factors, infrastructure, and environmental conditions were used to assess social vulnerability (SoVi). Based on the assessment results, a Disaster Prevention Funding Allocation Model based on Social Vulnerability Assessment (SO-FAOM) was constructed, which aims to reduce the overall social vulnerability index and the number of extremely vulnerable areas. In this model, Geodetector was used to establish a hierarchical quantification mechanism for benefit coefficients across different levels of priority support, and NSGA-II and TOPSIS were employed to solve for the optimal allocation. Applied it to Wenzhou City to obtain the optimal allocation of funds and quantitatively analyze the benefits generated by the funds. Additionally, with the same total investment, the benefits of the Flash Flood Intensity Scheme (FFIS) and SO-FAOM allocation results were compared. FFIS reduced the total SoVi by 4.2 % and the number of extreme SoVi zones by 35.5 %, while SO-FAOM achieved reductions of 5.8 % and 57.0 %, respectively. Results showed that the scientific allocation of flood prevention funds by incorporating socioeconomic factors pre-disaster could help maximize the effectiveness of the use of funds and improve the city's ability to sustain flood protection.

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引用次数: 0

Challenges and opportunities in Nepal's early warning communication

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105318

Dinanath Bhandari

Nepal is exposed to various hazards year-round, particularly those related to hydro-meteorological factors, which can lead to disasters. Recently, advancements in communication technology have enhanced the ability to predict these hazards, allowing for timely preventive measures before disasters occur. An effective communication system is essential for any early warning system. This system should include institutional arrangements, technologies, media, and a mechanism to mobilize human resources to relay messages to various audiences, especially communities at risk.

This study utilized a mixed-methods approach, incorporating participatory assessment techniques to gather and analyse data from multiple sources, including literature reviews, key informant interviews, group discussions, and field observations.

The study found that Nepal's current institutional mechanisms for early warning systems related to floods and landslides have significant gaps and ambiguities in the roles and responsibilities of agencies at all three levels of government, as well as among various sectoral agencies. Additionally, the creation and distribution of early warning messages often fail to take into account important factors such as the choice of media, message format, language, and accessibility for particularly vulnerable groups. As a result, these messages frequently do not prompt the necessary actions to save lives and protect assets.

The paper recommends strengthening communication mechanisms at the national, local government, and community levels. Communication should involve a variety of audio, visual, text, and other messaging forms using appropriate media, including radio, television, phone calls, news portals, social media, and face-to-face interactions. This diverse approach will help ensure that everyone receives messages promptly.

尼泊尔全年都面临着各种灾害，尤其是与水文气象因素有关的灾害，这些灾害可能会导致灾难的发生。最近，通信技术的进步提高了预测这些灾害的能力，从而可以在灾害发生之前及时采取预防措施。有效的通信系统对任何预警系统都至关重要。该系统应包括制度安排、技术、媒体和调动人力资源的机制，以便向不同受众，尤其是处于风险中的社区传递信息。本研究采用了混合方法，结合参与式评估技术，从文献综述、关键信息提供者访谈、小组讨论和实地观察等多种来源收集和分析数据。研究发现，尼泊尔与洪水和山体滑坡有关的预警系统的现行体制机制在三级政府机构以及各部门机构的作用和职责方面存在重大差距和模糊不清之处。此外，预警信息的制作和发布往往没有考虑到媒体选择、信息格式、语言以及弱势群体的可及性等重要因素。因此，这些信息往往不能促使人们采取必要的行动来挽救生命和保护财产。本文建议加强国家、地方政府和社区层面的沟通机制。文件建议在国家、地方政府和社区层面加强沟通机制。沟通应采用广播、电视、电话、新闻门户网站、社交媒体和面对面交流等适当的媒体，包括音频、视频、文本和其他信息形式。这种多样化的方式将有助于确保每个人都能及时收到信息。

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引用次数: 0

The adaptive shift: Embracing complexity in disaster and emergency management

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105323

Todd Miller, Loic Le Dé, Katherine Hore

Disaster and Emergency Management (DEM) systems are increasingly challenged by the complexity and interconnectedness of today's DEM environment. While rigid, phased-based approaches to DEM provide valuable structural frameworks, they often fail in addressing the dynamic, non-linear, and unpredictable nature of contemporary disasters. This paper critically examines key challenges in DEM, including non-linearity, complexity, and the coordination of diverse actors and organisations. It advocates for a shift towards adaptive, interconnected systems that better align with the realities of complex disasters. To this end, the paper introduces the Complex Adaptive DEM (CADEM) Framework, a new conceptual framework grounded in Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory. This framework emphasises decentralised decision-making, interorganisational collaboration, and emergent behaviours as mechanisms to enhance the adaptability and resilience of DEM systems. By reframing DEM as a networked and adaptive system, CADEM provides a pathway for navigating the multifaceted challenges of contemporary disasters.

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引用次数: 0

Climate change has increased rainfall-induced landslide damages in central China

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105320

Zhice Fang , Adriano Barasal Morales , Yi Wang , Luigi Lombardo

Global warming exacerbates the frequency of extreme precipitation events and inevitably increases the risk of hydrogeological disasters such as landslides. Understanding the impact of climatic drivers, particularly precipitation, of landslides and the resulting damages is crucial for effective risk management and mitigation strategies. However, few researchers have turned to quantify the causal effects of precipitation anomalies on landslide damages. This study focuses on Jiangxi Province, China, over the period from 2011 to 2020, aiming to quantify the contribution of historical climate change to landslide damages using a panel regression framework with fixed effects. We quantify the impact of long-term and short-term precipitation on landslide damages considering geographical and seasonal differences based on satellite rainfall products. Our results show positive and significant effects of both long-term and short-term precipitation on landslide damages, with a unit anomaly increase corresponding to a 99.7 % increase in damages. Considering the income equality, landslide damages in rich counties show greater sensitivity to monthly precipitation anomaly compared to poor counties. Moreover, we find that climate change contributed to 32.8 % of the total landslide damages in Jiangxi Province over the past decade, amounting to 57 million CNY. Overall, we believe this work could provide quantitative information about the economic costs of climate change on landslides and facilitate related adaptation and resilience strategies.

全球变暖加剧了极端降水事件的发生频率，不可避免地增加了山体滑坡等水文地质灾害的风险。了解气候驱动因素（尤其是降水）对山体滑坡及其造成的损失的影响，对于有效的风险管理和减灾战略至关重要。然而，很少有研究人员转而量化降水异常对滑坡灾害的因果影响。本研究以中国江西省为研究对象，研究时间跨度为 2011 年至 2020 年，旨在利用固定效应的面板回归框架量化历史气候变化对滑坡损失的影响。我们基于卫星降水产品，考虑地理和季节差异，量化了长期和短期降水对滑坡损失的影响。我们的研究结果表明，长期和短期降水对滑坡损失都有积极而显著的影响，单位异常值的增加相当于损失的 99.7%。考虑到收入平等，富裕县的滑坡损失对月降水异常的敏感性高于贫困县。此外，我们还发现，在过去十年中，气候变化造成的损失占江西省滑坡总损失的 32.8%，达 5700 万人民币。总之，我们相信这项工作可以提供气候变化对滑坡造成的经济损失的定量信息，并促进相关的适应和抗灾战略。

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引用次数: 0

A novel multi-scenario mitigation model for rainstorm flood disasters

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105321

Lei Wen , Xiaoyi Miao , Ting Wang , Jinqi Wang , Jianhua Yang , Ronghua Liu , Meihong Ma

Global warming induces frequent heavy rain disasters, resulting in significant casualties and economic losses. Seeking for an effective flood disaster mitigation method is crucial for mitigating the impact of disasters. Therefore, this study focuses on Nanhai district, starting with an analysis of the key disaster-causing factors for floods. Then, the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) is employed to quantify the contribution rates of disaster-causing factors, and determine the risk levels of the disaster. On this basis, a GBDT-based flood disaster mitigation model (GB-FDMM) is constructed by optimizing key disaster-causing thresholds. It then explores the changes in risk before and after the implementation of mitigation measures, thereby explaining the effectiveness of the FDMM under different heavy rainfall scenarios. The results indicate that: (1) the constructed GB-FDMM with threshold optimization method demonstrates an effective mitigation effect under extreme weather conditions. (2) the very-high-risk areas are mainly concentrated in the eastern region, and the GBDT algorithm can accurately evaluates the risk of flood disasters; (3) the main key disaster-causing factors are flood depth, submerge duration, population density, and GDP density. This study aims to provide valuable theoretical reference for enhancing the overall disaster reduction capacity in similar regions.

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引用次数: 0