Pub Date : 2025-11-27DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105936
Gaetano Falcone , Angela Stefania Bergantino , Mario Intini , Gianfranco Urciuoli , Anna d’Onofrio
This study proposes an enhanced macroseismic framework for regional seismic risk assessment that accounts for litho-stratigraphic site effects and refines building exposure modelling using open-access spatial datasets. The methodology is applied to the Campania region in southern Italy, combining official census data with high-resolution building height estimates to disaggregate structural typologies into three classes: low-rise (1-3 storeys), mid-rise (4-7 storeys), and high-rise (≥ 8 storeys), associated with distinct vibration period ranges. In addition, the year of construction and the conservation status of the buildings are considered to refine the vulnerability assessment. Seismic hazard is quantified through period-dependent spectral acceleration, which is then converted to macroseismic intensity. The results reveal significant spatial variability in damage scenarios and repair costs, driven by both structural typology and site conditions. Metropolitan areas exhibit the highest vulnerability and economic impact, with site amplification increasing estimated regional repair costs by over 60 %. The proposed GIS-compatible methodology offers a replicable and policy-relevant tool for supporting seismic risk mitigation, urban resilience planning, and targeted retrofitting strategies.
{"title":"A large-scale seismic risk approach accounting for local site effects and modelling of building exposure based on open-access datasets","authors":"Gaetano Falcone , Angela Stefania Bergantino , Mario Intini , Gianfranco Urciuoli , Anna d’Onofrio","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105936","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105936","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes an enhanced macroseismic framework for regional seismic risk assessment that accounts for litho-stratigraphic site effects and refines building exposure modelling using open-access spatial datasets. The methodology is applied to the Campania region in southern Italy, combining official census data with high-resolution building height estimates to disaggregate structural typologies into three classes: low-rise (1-3 storeys), mid-rise (4-7 storeys), and high-rise (≥ 8 storeys), associated with distinct vibration period ranges. In addition, the year of construction and the conservation status of the buildings are considered to refine the vulnerability assessment. Seismic hazard is quantified through period-dependent spectral acceleration, which is then converted to macroseismic intensity. The results reveal significant spatial variability in damage scenarios and repair costs, driven by both structural typology and site conditions. Metropolitan areas exhibit the highest vulnerability and economic impact, with site amplification increasing estimated regional repair costs by over 60 %. The proposed GIS-compatible methodology offers a replicable and policy-relevant tool for supporting seismic risk mitigation, urban resilience planning, and targeted retrofitting strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105936"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145692754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-27DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105939
R. Campos , P.S. Harvey Jr. , P.S. Moses
This study presents a probabilistic hazard framework for assessing wildland-urban fire hazards triggered by wind-induced failures in electrical distribution systems. The framework integrates wind fragility analysis of aging utility poles, ignition probability modeling, and fire spread simulations using FARSITE. The analytical fragility curves were developed with electrical component data from an electrical distribution network in Oklahoma. Monte Carlo methods were used to evaluate failure, ignition, and fire propagation across varying wind conditions. Anthropogenic hazard maps were generated to identify high burn probability and fire intensity areas. Exposure maps for electrical poles and conductors were developed to show the connection between self-induced electrical fires and the probabilistic fire exposure to other network assets. Results show that aging electrical poles significantly increases network failure and ignition risk, revealing that electrical distribution networks can pose a fire hazard to the very communities they serve. Fires ignited by failed poles spread rapidly under high wind conditions, with flame lengths and heat intensity escalating sharply beyond 28 m/s. Exposure maps show network components most frequently affected by fire, offering utilities a basis for targeted hardening and vegetation management. For emergency responders, the spatial patterns of ignition and burn probability support hazard scenario-based planning and resource deployment under fire weather conditions.
{"title":"Fire hazards induced by power distribution networks: Modeling and Mapping","authors":"R. Campos , P.S. Harvey Jr. , P.S. Moses","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105939","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105939","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents a probabilistic hazard framework for assessing wildland-urban fire hazards triggered by wind-induced failures in electrical distribution systems. The framework integrates wind fragility analysis of aging utility poles, ignition probability modeling, and fire spread simulations using FARSITE. The analytical fragility curves were developed with electrical component data from an electrical distribution network in Oklahoma. Monte Carlo methods were used to evaluate failure, ignition, and fire propagation across varying wind conditions. Anthropogenic hazard maps were generated to identify high burn probability and fire intensity areas. Exposure maps for electrical poles and conductors were developed to show the connection between self-induced electrical fires and the probabilistic fire exposure to other network assets. Results show that aging electrical poles significantly increases network failure and ignition risk, revealing that electrical distribution networks can pose a fire hazard to the very communities they serve. Fires ignited by failed poles spread rapidly under high wind conditions, with flame lengths and heat intensity escalating sharply beyond 28 m/s. Exposure maps show network components most frequently affected by fire, offering utilities a basis for targeted hardening and vegetation management. For emergency responders, the spatial patterns of ignition and burn probability support hazard scenario-based planning and resource deployment under fire weather conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105939"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-27DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105931
Luis M.C. Rápalo , Marcus N. Gomes Jr. , Eduardo M. Mendiondo
Extreme rainfall events in urban environments are a well-known issue in society due to the multiple impacts that can induce, which are expected to increase due to climate change effects. During high intensity rainfall events, an often overlooked risk is the threat to pedestrian stability posed by overland flow forces that can induce instability when crossing the streets. To analyze this gap, we employ hydrodynamic modeling in a catchment in São Paulo city, Brazil, under climate change conditions to assess human instability with multiple levels of vulnerability, according to the age, gender, weight and height of the people. Our results allowed us to identify zones with potential risk that tend to increase along the 21st century, where children are the most significant vulnerability group to potential injuries compared to adults. We observed that human instability is more sensitive to pulses of rainfall intensity than to the total rainfall volume, indicating that even low volume rainfall events can pose a considerable danger to pedestrians. The Results provide valuable insights to decision-makers for better urban planning against challenges exacerbated by climate change in the future. This research, as the first of its kind, helps to identify risk zones for the implementation of measures to reduce both flow depth and velocity. In addition, this study offers a potential tool for enhancing communication and knowledge sharing with society, aiming to influence the perception of this type of risk, which is often underestimated, especially by pedestrians, in order to help prevent injuries or potential fatalities.
{"title":"Multiple levels of human instability due to urban overland flow within the 21st century: An urban Catchment study case in Brazil","authors":"Luis M.C. Rápalo , Marcus N. Gomes Jr. , Eduardo M. Mendiondo","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105931","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105931","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme rainfall events in urban environments are a well-known issue in society due to the multiple impacts that can induce, which are expected to increase due to climate change effects. During high intensity rainfall events, an often overlooked risk is the threat to pedestrian stability posed by overland flow forces that can induce instability when crossing the streets. To analyze this gap, we employ hydrodynamic modeling in a catchment in São Paulo city, Brazil, under climate change conditions to assess human instability with multiple levels of vulnerability, according to the age, gender, weight and height of the people. Our results allowed us to identify zones with potential risk that tend to increase along the 21st century, where children are the most significant vulnerability group to potential injuries compared to adults. We observed that human instability is more sensitive to pulses of rainfall intensity than to the total rainfall volume, indicating that even low volume rainfall events can pose a considerable danger to pedestrians. The Results provide valuable insights to decision-makers for better urban planning against challenges exacerbated by climate change in the future. This research, as the first of its kind, helps to identify risk zones for the implementation of measures to reduce both flow depth and velocity. In addition, this study offers a potential tool for enhancing communication and knowledge sharing with society, aiming to influence the perception of this type of risk, which is often underestimated, especially by pedestrians, in order to help prevent injuries or potential fatalities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105931"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-27DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105941
Masood Ali Khan , Asim Zia , Scott C. Merrill , Christopher Koliba , Jessica A. Balerna , Ruth Quainoo , Rodrigo Soares , Trisha Shrum
Flooding remains one of the most damaging natural hazards, underscoring the need for a better understanding of public perceptions of flood risk to support preparedness and mitigation. This study compares risk perceptions from a national online survey of 918 respondents with FEMA flood maps. We define the risk perception gap as the difference between respondents' perceived flood risk and FEMA's flood zone classifications, and we examine its drivers. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess how socioeconomic characteristics, spatial context, and latent variables from Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) influence whether individuals perceive their flood risk as higher, lower, accurate, or express uncertainty about it. Many residents living in FEMA-designated floodplains perceive their flood risk as lower.
The results revealed that higher perceived self-efficacy was associated with either elevated perceived flood risk or increased uncertainty. Greater perceived susceptibility was correlated with less uncertainty. People who live near water bodies perceive flood risk differently from what FEMA maps indicate, reflecting polarized perceptions of flood risk. A lack of awareness about elevated terrain (necessary for avoiding rising flood waters) tends to downplay their flood risk. Older individuals exhibited less uncertainty about their property's flood risk.
These findings highlight the need for targeted, place-based flood-risk communication strategies that address socio-cognitive and geographical factors. These strategies may help to reduce perception gaps, improve community preparedness and risk literacy, and strengthen resilience to flooding. The potential underestimation of flood risk in FEMA flood maps highlights the need for improved map accuracy and localized risk assessments.
{"title":"What shapes flood risk perceptions? Comparing public perceptions with FEMA flood hazard maps in the U.S.","authors":"Masood Ali Khan , Asim Zia , Scott C. Merrill , Christopher Koliba , Jessica A. Balerna , Ruth Quainoo , Rodrigo Soares , Trisha Shrum","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105941","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105941","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flooding remains one of the most damaging natural hazards, underscoring the need for a better understanding of public perceptions of flood risk to support preparedness and mitigation. This study compares risk perceptions from a national online survey of 918 respondents with FEMA flood maps. We define the risk perception gap as the difference between respondents' perceived flood risk and FEMA's flood zone classifications, and we examine its drivers. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess how socioeconomic characteristics, spatial context, and latent variables from Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) influence whether individuals perceive their flood risk as higher, lower, accurate, or express uncertainty about it. Many residents living in FEMA-designated floodplains perceive their flood risk as lower.</div><div>The results revealed that higher perceived self-efficacy was associated with either elevated perceived flood risk or increased uncertainty. Greater perceived susceptibility was correlated with less uncertainty. People who live near water bodies perceive flood risk differently from what FEMA maps indicate, reflecting polarized perceptions of flood risk. A lack of awareness about elevated terrain (necessary for avoiding rising flood waters) tends to downplay their flood risk. Older individuals exhibited less uncertainty about their property's flood risk.</div><div>These findings highlight the need for targeted, place-based flood-risk communication strategies that address socio-cognitive and geographical factors. These strategies may help to reduce perception gaps, improve community preparedness and risk literacy, and strengthen resilience to flooding. The potential underestimation of flood risk in FEMA flood maps highlights the need for improved map accuracy and localized risk assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105941"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145692757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-27DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105938
Christine Horn , Leanne M. Kelly , Jasmina Kijevcanin
Community-led disaster resilience is an emerging concept in disaster risk reduction that emphasises local leadership, grassroots coordination and adaptive strategies to enhance preparedness and recovery. It is based on community knowledge, lived experience of emergency events and readiness to work collaboratively to towards improving resilience, preparedness and recovery, often with support from external organisations.
This paper explores community-led resilience models through the case study of the Australian Red Cross Community-Led Resilience Teams (CRT) program in regional New South Wales in Australia. Drawing on qualitative data from the formative evaluation of the program in 2024, we analyse the strengths of community-led resilience efforts including their ability to enhance trust, social cohesion, and responsiveness to local needs. We also critically examine key challenges, such as sustaining long-term engagement, navigating resource limitations, and ensuring inclusivity, particularly in reaching marginalised groups.
Drawing from our data, we present a four-factor framework for practitioners, indicating how community-led resilience can be supported: 1. Relationships and inclusive networks for sharing knowledge, skills, resources and enhancing community cohesion; 2. Supporting motivation by engaging at the appropriate time, enabling growth mindsets and risk perception; 3. Supporting emerging community-backed leaders willing and able to step up, and 4. Developing skills and knowledge and supporting mental capacity.
This paper contributes to the broader conceptual understanding of how communities can be supported and empowered to drive their own resilience-building strategies. We incorporate evaluation practice and resilience theory to offer insights for policymakers and practitioners on fostering sustainable and inclusive community resilience.
{"title":"Community-led disaster resilience: Strengthening preparedness and recovery in regional Australia","authors":"Christine Horn , Leanne M. Kelly , Jasmina Kijevcanin","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105938","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105938","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Community-led disaster resilience is an emerging concept in disaster risk reduction that emphasises local leadership, grassroots coordination and adaptive strategies to enhance preparedness and recovery. It is based on community knowledge, lived experience of emergency events and readiness to work collaboratively to towards improving resilience, preparedness and recovery, often with support from external organisations.</div><div>This paper explores community-led resilience models through the case study of the Australian Red Cross Community-Led Resilience Teams (CRT) program in regional New South Wales in Australia. Drawing on qualitative data from the formative evaluation of the program in 2024, we analyse the strengths of community-led resilience efforts including their ability to enhance trust, social cohesion, and responsiveness to local needs. We also critically examine key challenges, such as sustaining long-term engagement, navigating resource limitations, and ensuring inclusivity, particularly in reaching marginalised groups.</div><div>Drawing from our data, we present a four-factor framework for practitioners, indicating how community-led resilience can be supported: 1. Relationships and inclusive networks for sharing knowledge, skills, resources and enhancing community cohesion; 2. Supporting motivation by engaging at the appropriate time, enabling growth mindsets and risk perception; 3. Supporting emerging community-backed leaders willing and able to step up, and 4. Developing skills and knowledge and supporting mental capacity.</div><div>This paper contributes to the broader conceptual understanding of how communities can be supported and empowered to drive their own resilience-building strategies. We incorporate evaluation practice and resilience theory to offer insights for policymakers and practitioners on fostering sustainable and inclusive community resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105938"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-26DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105926
Hannah Claire Graham , Fazlullah Akhtar , Mojca Šraj , Pavel Raška , Lenka Slavikova , Jiri Louda , Jan Macháč , Vesna Zupanc , Nejc Bezak
Increased flooding is becoming more prevalent under an increasingly variable future of weather extremes, highlighting the need for effective mitigation strategies. Different flood mitigation measures are available, ranging from classical structural (grey) solutions to nature-based solutions (NbS). This study assessed and compared the hydrological effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and public perception of green (NbS), grey, and hybrid flood mitigation measures in the Gradaščica River catchment, Slovenia. For the hydrological assessment, a SWAT + model simulated wetland, retention polder, and dam scenarios. Results showed that wetlands had a minimal effect on flood hazard, reducing flood peaks by up to 3 %, while retention polders and dams reduced flood peaks by 51 % and 73 % and flood volumes by 28 % and 58 %, respectively. The economic analysis found wetlands to be less cost-effective than retention polders and dams. However, it should be noted that wetlands provide additional diverse co-benefits. The public perception analysis revealed significant discrepancies in perceived effectiveness, feasibility, and acceptability of flood mitigation measures across target groups, including the general public, water engineers, researchers, and agricultural advisors. While most groups ranked dams as most effective and wetlands as least effective, aligning with hydrological findings, researchers held a directly opposing view, and the public generally overestimated the performance of green measures. By examining hydrological effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and public perception across flood mitigation measures, the research highlights the need to integrate multidisciplinary approaches to develop robust flood management strategies – an essential lens as communities confront escalating climate-driven flood risks.
{"title":"Integrated evaluation of flood mitigation measures: A multidisciplinary approach combining hydrology, economics, and public perception","authors":"Hannah Claire Graham , Fazlullah Akhtar , Mojca Šraj , Pavel Raška , Lenka Slavikova , Jiri Louda , Jan Macháč , Vesna Zupanc , Nejc Bezak","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105926","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105926","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increased flooding is becoming more prevalent under an increasingly variable future of weather extremes, highlighting the need for effective mitigation strategies. Different flood mitigation measures are available, ranging from classical structural (grey) solutions to nature-based solutions (NbS). This study assessed and compared the hydrological effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and public perception of green (NbS), grey, and hybrid flood mitigation measures in the Gradaščica River catchment, Slovenia. For the hydrological assessment, a SWAT + model simulated wetland, retention polder, and dam scenarios. Results showed that wetlands had a minimal effect on flood hazard, reducing flood peaks by up to 3 %, while retention polders and dams reduced flood peaks by 51 % and 73 % and flood volumes by 28 % and 58 %, respectively. The economic analysis found wetlands to be less cost-effective than retention polders and dams. However, it should be noted that wetlands provide additional diverse co-benefits. The public perception analysis revealed significant discrepancies in perceived effectiveness, feasibility, and acceptability of flood mitigation measures across target groups, including the general public, water engineers, researchers, and agricultural advisors. While most groups ranked dams as most effective and wetlands as least effective, aligning with hydrological findings, researchers held a directly opposing view, and the public generally overestimated the performance of green measures. By examining hydrological effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and public perception across flood mitigation measures, the research highlights the need to integrate multidisciplinary approaches to develop robust flood management strategies – an essential lens as communities confront escalating climate-driven flood risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105926"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The interdependence between urban infrastructure systems and community building portfolios is becoming a critical issue in urban seismic resilience. Existing studies primarily focus on the impacts of service disruptions of infrastructure systems on the functionality of the community building portfolio (BPS). This study proposes a framework that can quantitatively describe how BPS affects the performance and recovery of infrastructure systems under seismic scenarios, where population displacement is utilized to bridge the interconnections between BPS and the infrastructure system. Firstly, the seismic damage to the building portfolios and water distribution system is assessed using fragility models. Then, the post-earthquake population redistribution in various areas is evaluated according to the damage states of buildings, and the dynamic migration of evacuated populations during post-earthquake building repairment is estimated. Subsequently, the seismic performance of the Water Distribution Systems (WDSs) is evaluated based on the water demand satisfaction ratio, which explicitly accounts for the spatiotemporal variations in water demand resulting from population migration. Finally, the proposed framework is implemented in the seismic performance analysis of BPS and WDS in Shelby County, Tennessee. The results indicate that the seismic damage to BPS significantly affects the water demand of WDS, resulting in a 37 % reduction in WDS system performance and a nodal performance reduction of up to 76 %. This study provides innovative insights into the interdependence between infrastructure systems and community-building portfolios.
{"title":"Exploring infrastructure dependence on community environment under natural hazards: quantifying the impact of building destruction on infrastructure functionality","authors":"Benwei Hou, Jiahe Zhang, Tianhe Ma, Huiquan Miao, Chengshun Xu, Xiuli Du","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105935","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105935","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The interdependence between urban infrastructure systems and community building portfolios is becoming a critical issue in urban seismic resilience. Existing studies primarily focus on the impacts of service disruptions of infrastructure systems on the functionality of the community building portfolio (BPS). This study proposes a framework that can quantitatively describe how BPS affects the performance and recovery of infrastructure systems under seismic scenarios, where population displacement is utilized to bridge the interconnections between BPS and the infrastructure system. Firstly, the seismic damage to the building portfolios and water distribution system is assessed using fragility models. Then, the post-earthquake population redistribution in various areas is evaluated according to the damage states of buildings, and the dynamic migration of evacuated populations during post-earthquake building repairment is estimated. Subsequently, the seismic performance of the Water Distribution Systems (WDSs) is evaluated based on the water demand satisfaction ratio, which explicitly accounts for the spatiotemporal variations in water demand resulting from population migration. Finally, the proposed framework is implemented in the seismic performance analysis of BPS and WDS in Shelby County, Tennessee. The results indicate that the seismic damage to BPS significantly affects the water demand of WDS, resulting in a 37 % reduction in WDS system performance and a nodal performance reduction of up to 76 %. This study provides innovative insights into the interdependence between infrastructure systems and community-building portfolios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105935"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145682438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-25DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105928
Sarah Masterton , Lorna Riddle , Virginia Bertelli , Lewis Wooding , Holly Carter
Given the challenges facing the UK in relation to health security, the development and evaluation of risk communication resources is essential to support public response and recovery to adverse events. While online resources are frequently utilised in emergency preparedness and response contexts, there is limited research focusing on the impact of these resources on attitudes and behaviours related to preparedness. The aim of the current study was to examine the impact of a newly developed UK Government website (‘Prepare’) on behaviours, knowledge and attitudes associated with emergency preparedness and resilience. The results revealed that while there were no significant changes in attitudes towards preparedness or public perceptions of resilience following website engagement, participants who viewed the ‘Prepare’ website had completed a significantly higher number of individual preparedness actions post website engagement (compared to pre website engagement) than had those who viewed a control website. While these results are promising, future research should further examine the impact of online risk communication materials to understand their role in incident response and recovery.
{"title":"‘Prepare’ yourself: The impact of the UK ‘Prepare’ website on public preparedness for emergencies and adverse events in England","authors":"Sarah Masterton , Lorna Riddle , Virginia Bertelli , Lewis Wooding , Holly Carter","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105928","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105928","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the challenges facing the UK in relation to health security, the development and evaluation of risk communication resources is essential to support public response and recovery to adverse events. While online resources are frequently utilised in emergency preparedness and response contexts, there is limited research focusing on the impact of these resources on attitudes and behaviours related to preparedness. The aim of the current study was to examine the impact of a newly developed UK Government website (‘Prepare’) on behaviours, knowledge and attitudes associated with emergency preparedness and resilience. The results revealed that while there were no significant changes in attitudes towards preparedness or public perceptions of resilience following website engagement, participants who viewed the ‘Prepare’ website had completed a significantly higher number of individual preparedness actions post website engagement (compared to pre website engagement) than had those who viewed a control website. While these results are promising, future research should further examine the impact of online risk communication materials to understand their role in incident response and recovery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105928"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-25DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105934
Camille Washington-Ottombre
On October 2nd and 3rd 2020, Storm Alex violently hit Southeast France. It resulted in approximately one billion euros of damage, making it the most destructive event in metropolitan France since WWII. Building on US-focused scholarship on State-reinforced adaptive governance (AG), this work treats the event as an emergence frontier and analyzes how formal authorities responded to this climate catastrophe. More specifically it examines authorities’ risk management and urban planning efforts at this emergence frontier to determine the extent to which they successfully promoted State-reinforced AG and adaptation to climate change in their responses to the storm. To evaluate this, the paper mobilizes the analytical framework designed by DeCaro et al. (2017), a rubric of legal and institutional design principles whose implementation has been shown to facilitate the development of State-reinforced AG. More specifically, with these principles, it mobilized a mix-methodology to assess if and how administrative laws and central authorities supported lower levels of governance and promoted the emergence of AG in the context of a new polycentric order. This work shows that responses to Storm Alex led to the emergence of State-reinforced AG in the areas of risk management and urban planning. The case study illustrates that combining the analysis of legal and institutional design principles is both synergistic and makes a reliable indicator for the emergence of AG. In addition, this study contributes to the growing literature on State-reinforced AG by presenting a case study from France, a country with historically highly centralized governance system. This work also engages with criticisms of AG by providing a contextualized analysis and an in-depth and complex examination of the roles played by agents of change in shaping the emergence of AG.
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The escalating frequency, severity and scale of disasters and predicted more frequent epidemics and pandemics threatens the economic and social fabric of regional communities in Australia. This article reports on findings from two case studies conducted in South Australia that explored regional business recovery pathways following the Black Summer fires (2019/2020) and the COVID-19 pandemic. We used Bronfenbrenner's ecological systems theory of human development to analyse data from 18 interviews with small business owners. We found that the linkages between systems are where the most effective support occurs and yet these linkages are often missing, under-resourced and captured by unhelpful definitions of resilience and self-reliance. We explored the complex mix of supports that already exist in communities, as well as supports delivered by different levels of government, to provide insights regarding the types and timing of these supports. Our findings contribute to developing place-based approaches to navigate pathways for regional businesses to recover and thrive post-disaster. Our findings are relevant beyond this study, providing guidance to those working with communities to foster transformative place-based recovery.
{"title":"Using an ecological model to guide transformative place-based pathways to regional business disaster recovery","authors":"Catherine Mackenzie , Margaret Becker , Sudarshan Subedi , Kathyayini Kathy Rao","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105932","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105932","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The escalating frequency, severity and scale of disasters and predicted more frequent epidemics and pandemics threatens the economic and social fabric of regional communities in Australia. This article reports on findings from two case studies conducted in South Australia that explored regional business recovery pathways following the Black Summer fires (2019/2020) and the COVID-19 pandemic. We used Bronfenbrenner's ecological systems theory of human development to analyse data from 18 interviews with small business owners. We found that the linkages between systems are where the most effective support occurs and yet these linkages are often missing, under-resourced and captured by unhelpful definitions of resilience and self-reliance. We explored the complex mix of supports that already exist in communities, as well as supports delivered by different levels of government, to provide insights regarding the types and timing of these supports. Our findings contribute to developing place-based approaches to navigate pathways for regional businesses to recover and thrive post-disaster. Our findings are relevant beyond this study, providing guidance to those working with communities to foster transformative place-based recovery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105932"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145616547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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