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Landslide-bridge interaction: Insights from an extensive database of Italian case studies 滑坡与桥梁的相互作用:从广泛的意大利案例研究数据库中获得的启示
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104983
Diana Salciarini , Erica Cernuto , Giulia Capati , Francesca Dezi , Lorenzo Brezzi , Fabiola Gibin , Fabio Gabrieli , Stefano Stacul , Angelo Doglioni , Arianna Lupattelli , Nunziante Squeglia , Vincenzo Simeone , Paolo Simonini
Despite the wealth of documented case studies, systematic approaches to correlate landslide characteristics with the damage they cause to bridges are rare. The correlation is challenging due to the complexity of landslides, which can vary in movement types, volume, velocities, materials, and orientations. Additionally, the lack of universally applicable models to forecast bridge responses in case of landslide interaction adds complexity. Recognizing the urgency of addressing this challenge, various countries, including Italy, have introduced guidelines and strategies to manage infrastructure risks and enhance safety. Efforts are underway to develop practical tools for authorities and infrastructure managers, encompassing factors influencing bridge response, especially under the action of natural hazards. This article presents a database of landslide-bridge interactions in Italy, developed under the FABRE Consortium. The database was compiled by analysing 382 bridges across 12 Italian regions. The article explores correlations between landslide characteristics and risk classification for bridges, defined as “Landslide Class of Attention” (L-CoA). The analysis shows that landslide volume is directly correlated with L-CoA severity, with larger volumes leading to higher classifications. Very slow-moving landslides are prevalent in high-risk L-CoA categories, suggesting they are associated with significant volumes and severe consequences. Complete interference between landslides and infrastructure poses the highest risk, while partial interference also contributes significantly. Combined landslides tend to result in more severe L-CoA classifications. The findings underscore the importance of better understanding the interactions between landslides and bridges, to develop predictive models and mitigate the risks posed by landslides to infrastructure in Italy and beyond.
尽管记录了大量的案例研究,但将滑坡特征与滑坡对桥梁造成的破坏相关联的系统方法却很少见。由于山体滑坡的复杂性,其运动类型、体积、速度、材料和方向各不相同,因此关联具有挑战性。此外,缺乏普遍适用的模型来预测桥梁在滑坡作用下的反应,这也增加了复杂性。认识到应对这一挑战的紧迫性,包括意大利在内的多个国家已推出了管理基础设施风险和提高安全性的指导方针和战略。目前正在努力为当局和基础设施管理者开发实用工具,其中包括影响桥梁响应的因素,特别是在自然灾害作用下的响应。本文介绍了在 FABRE 财团下开发的意大利滑坡-桥梁相互作用数据库。该数据库是通过分析意大利 12 个大区的 382 座桥梁编制而成的。文章探讨了滑坡特征与桥梁风险分类(定义为 "滑坡关注等级"(L-CoA))之间的相关性。分析表明,滑坡体积与 L-CoA 严重程度直接相关,体积越大,分类越高。在高风险 L-CoA 类别中,移动速度非常缓慢的滑坡非常普遍,这表明它们与巨大的体积和严重的后果相关。山体滑坡与基础设施之间的完全干扰风险最高,而部分干扰也有很大影响。合并滑坡往往会导致更严重的 L-CoA 分类。这些发现强调了更好地了解山体滑坡与桥梁之间的相互作用的重要性,以便开发预测模型并降低山体滑坡对意大利及其他国家的基础设施造成的风险。
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引用次数: 0
Urban flood hazard insights from multiple perspectives based on internet of things sensor data 基于物联网传感器数据的多角度城市洪水灾害洞察力
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104919
Dianchen Sun , Huimin Wang , Jing Huang , Weiqian Wang , Zehui Zhou , Weidong Huang
Floods are major global natural disasters that cause significant damage. Analyzing urban flood hazards is essential for urban planning and sustainable development. The shift toward proactive urban disaster prevention requires expanding flood hazard assessments beyond flood depth to encompass a broader range of factors to enhance resilience. This study introduces a multiple perspective analysis of urban flood hazards based on internet of things (IoT) sensor data, such as maximum flood depth, total flood events, average drainage time, average accumulation efficiency and average drainage efficiency. This research assesses detailed flood hazards of urban areas and points of interest (POIs) and finds a significant difference of up to 14.6 % in extreme-hazard areas when multiple hazard indicators are used, with the maximum flood depth indicator showing the highest proportion. For medium-hazard areas, the total flood event indicator yielded the highest proportion, accounting for up to 35.7 % of the area. The findings also indicate that POI flood hazards vary significantly depending on the indicator. Medical facilities were found to have extended impacts due to prolonged water accumulation and drainage times, despite infrequent flooding, suggesting that many locations are subject to a moderate hazard level. The study also highlights the heightened hazard of residential buildings in extreme scenarios, underscoring the need for enhanced flood mitigation in residential planning. This study emphasizes adopting multiple perspectives in flood hazard assessment, challenging the traditional reliance on single metrics. This study provides valuable insights for urban planners and policy-makers and advocates for a holistic approach to urban flood risk.
洪水是造成重大损失的全球性自然灾害。分析城市洪水灾害对城市规划和可持续发展至关重要。要实现积极主动的城市防灾转变,就必须将洪水危害评估扩展到洪水深度之外,以涵盖更广泛的因素,从而提高抗灾能力。本研究基于物联网(IoT)传感器数据,如最大洪水深度、洪水事件总数、平均排水时间、平均积水效率和平均排水效率,对城市洪水危害进行了多角度分析。这项研究详细评估了城市地区和兴趣点(POIs)的洪水危害,发现在使用多种危害指标时,极端危害地区的差异高达 14.6%,其中最大洪水深度指标所占比例最高。在中等灾害地区,总洪水事件指标所占比例最高,达 35.7%。研究结果还表明, POI 的洪水危害因指标的不同而有很大差异。研究发现,尽管洪水发生频率不高,但由于积水时间和排水时间较长,医疗设施受到的影响也较大,这表明许多地点的洪水危害程度处于中等水平。该研究还强调了住宅建筑在极端情况下的高度危险性,突出了在住宅规划中加强防洪减灾的必要性。本研究强调在洪水灾害评估中采用多种视角,对传统的单一指标依赖提出了挑战。本研究为城市规划者和政策制定者提供了宝贵的见解,并倡导采用综合方法来应对城市洪水风险。
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引用次数: 0
Flood regulation ecosystem services analysis and security pattern optimization for resilient management adapted to the complex terrain of coastal estuaries: A case study in Xiamen 适应沿海河口复杂地形的洪水调节生态系统服务分析与安全模式优化,以实现弹性管理:厦门案例研究
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104946
Jian Tian , Xuan Chen , Suiping Zeng
The flood risk in coastal areas has been exacerbated by global climate change. Research on flood risk assessment is emerging from the perspective of supply and demand for flood regulation ecosystem services (FRES). However, there are still limitations in the evaluation of lowland regulation, implementation of intelligent algorithms, comparison of multi-grain FRES supply and demand, and overall optimization of security pattern. Therefore, we propose a comprehensive FRES supply assessment method that incorporates soil and vegetation, lowland, and water regulations. Additionally, we introduce the random forest model to enhance the FRES demand assessment approach. Two grain sizes of the sub-catchment area and grid unit are used to compare FRES supply and demand. Using Xiamen as a case study, this research unveils the following findings: (1) Significant disparities exist between the assessment outcomes of FRES based on multiple types of regulatory services and those solely considering soil and vegetation regulation. The areas with high FRES supply extend beyond upper mountain forests to include local lower plains exhibiting strong capabilities for lowland or water system regulation. (2) Consistent yet distinct results are observed when comparing two grain sizes. Imbalances in supply and demand occur in estuaries, bays, and densely built-up regions. Sub-catchment units exhibit wider distribution and concentration, while grid units display more dispersed patterns. (3) In terms of in-situ regulation, 26.77 km2 ecological protection area, 9.85 km2 ecological restoration area, and 119.59 km2 construction land flood control intervention area are demarcated. From a directional regulation perspective, 22 FRES corridors connecting source and sink areas along with 24 pinch points are identified. Optimizing security patterns through coordinated management of FRES supply and demand can enhance the resilience of coastal estuaries.
全球气候变化加剧了沿海地区的洪水风险。从洪水调节生态系统服务(FRES)的供需角度进行洪水风险评估的研究正在兴起。然而,在低地调控评价、智能算法实现、多粒度 FRES 供需比较、保障格局整体优化等方面仍存在局限性。因此,我们提出了一种结合土壤和植被、低地和水调节的综合 FRES 供应评估方法。此外,我们还引入了随机森林模型来改进 FRES 需求评估方法。我们采用子流域面积和网格单元两种粒度来比较 FRES 的供给和需求。本研究以厦门为例,揭示了以下结论:(1)基于多种调节服务的 FRES 评估结果与仅考虑土壤和植被调节的 FRES 评估结果之间存在显著差异。FRES 供应量高的地区不仅包括高山森林,还包括低地或水系调节能力强的当地低平原。(2) 在比较两种粒度时,观察到了一致但不同的结果。在河口、海湾和建筑密集地区出现了供需失衡。小流域单元显示出更广泛的分布和集中,而网格单元则显示出更分散的模式。(3)就地调控方面,划定生态保护区 26.77 平方公里、生态修复区 9.85 平方公里、建设用地防洪干预区 119.59 平方公里。从定向调控的角度,确定了连接源区和汇水区的 22 条 FRES 走廊和 24 个夹点。通过对 FRES 供需的协调管理来优化安全模式,可以增强沿海河口的抗灾能力。
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引用次数: 0
Climate change vulnerability assessment for adaptation planning in Uttarakhand, Indian Himalaya 为印度喜马拉雅山脉北阿坎德邦的适应规划进行气候变化脆弱性评估
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104938
Seema Rani, Purushottam Tiwari
Climate change vulnerability estimation at all spatial scales is imperative for the development of effective adaptation strategies in the biogeographically fragile Himalayan region. This study aims to estimate district-wise climate change vulnerability in the state of Uttarakhand for the year 2022 by integrating climatic, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Employing an integrated approach, nine components (climate change, natural disaster, ecosystem services, agriculture, socio-economic status, human resource capacity, infrastructure, basic facilities, and social/natural capital) incorporating a total of 63 indicators, are used to estimate exposure (E), sensitivity (S), adaptive capacity (AC) and the vulnerability of the study area. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to assess the suitability and weights of all the indicators. The findings show that middle (1400–2400 m a.s.l.) and higher (>2400 m a.s.l.) districts of the state are more vulnerable (−0.68 to −1.50) than lower (1–1400 m a.s.l.) districts (0.16 to −0.26). Based on the vulnerability index (−0.68 to −1.50), five districts-Uttarkashi, Rudraprayag, Chamoli, Champawat, Pithoragarh, and Bageshwar are identified as priority districts for adaptation planning. The high vulnerability is primarily attributed to increased exposure to excessive precipitation, cold waves, cloudbursts, and flood events, coupled with high ecosystem sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. In contrast, the lower districts of the state benefit from better infrastructure, social and natural capital, and connectivity, which contribute to low vulnerability. The suggested strategies in the present study would help policymakers to allocate resources efficiently, fostering long-term resilience to climate change and sustainable development.
要在生物地理脆弱的喜马拉雅地区制定有效的适应战略,就必须对所有空间尺度的气候变化脆弱性进行估算。本研究旨在通过整合气候、环境和社会经济因素,估算 2022 年北阿坎德邦各地区的气候变化脆弱性。本研究采用综合方法,利用九个组成部分(气候变化、自然灾害、生态系统服务、农业、社会经济状况、人力资源能力、基础设施、基本设施和社会/自然资本)共 63 个指标来估算研究地区的暴露程度 (E)、敏感程度 (S)、适应能力 (AC) 和脆弱性。主成分分析(PCA)用于评估所有指标的适宜性和权重。研究结果表明,该州中等(1400-2400 米海拔)和较高(2400 米海拔)地区的脆弱性指数(-0.68 至-1.50)高于较低(1-1400 米海拔)地区的脆弱性指数(0.16 至-0.26)。根据脆弱性指数(-0.68 至-1.50),五个地区--Uttarkashi、Rudraprayag、Chamoli、Champawat、Pithoragarh 和 Bageshwar 被确定为适应规划的优先地区。这些地区的高脆弱性主要归因于受过度降水、寒潮、云雾骤降和洪水事件影响的程度增加,以及生态系统的高敏感性和低适应能力。相比之下,该州较低的地区受益于较好的基础设施、社会和自然资本以及连通性,这有助于降低脆弱性。本研究中建议的战略将有助于决策者有效地分配资源,促进对气候变化的长期适应能力和可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Natural and environmental risk communication: A scoping review of campaign experiences, applications and tools 自然与环境风险交流:活动经验、应用和工具的范围审查
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104936
Alessandra Massa, Francesca Comunello
This paper discusses natural and environmental risk communication and presents the findings of a scoping review that set out to identify campaign experiences, concrete applications, and tools. The 125 papers reviewed were selected based on the principle of intentionality in the design and dissemination of communicative devices. The papers demonstrate the complexity of risk communication and the flexibility of the tools provided. The literature mainly discusses experiences addressing pre-risk phases, with the American context being the most extensively researched. Future research should concentrate on designing and analyzing tools suitable for diverse audiences and seen clearly to apply principles of participation and co-design.
本文讨论了自然与环境风险交流问题,并介绍了旨在确定活动经验、具体应用和工具的范围审查结果。所审查的 125 篇论文是根据设计和传播传播工具的意图原则选出的。这些论文展示了风险交流的复杂性和所提供工具的灵活性。文献主要讨论了风险前阶段的经验,其中对美国背景的研究最为广泛。未来的研究应集中于设计和分析适合不同受众的工具,并明确应用参与和共同设计的原则。
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引用次数: 0
Holistic mapping of flood vulnerability in slums areas of Yaounde city, Cameroon through household and institutional surveys 通过家庭和机构调查对喀麦隆雅温得市贫民窟地区的洪水脆弱性进行整体测绘
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104947
Desmond N. Shiwomeh , Sameh A. Kantoush , Tetsuya Sumi , Binh Quang Nguyen , Karim I. Abdrabo
Urbanization in major cities has resulted in increasing urban slum expansion. This, together with increased climate-change-driven hazards, and deplorable slum characteristics has led to considerably higher flood impacts in slum settlements. As such, there is a need for specialized flood vulnerability assessment tools that integrate features specific to the urban slums. Studies have consecrated efforts to integrated and multidimensional flood vulnerability studies. However, assessments that include social, economic, structural, and institutional realities of the slum settlements are rare in developing countries. This study comprehensively assessed the flood vulnerability in urban slums. It offers a simplified perspective of vulnerability in urban slums, capturing data from slum inhabitants, local councils, experts, and local NGOs since they often have profound insights into essential service availability, access, and quality within the study area. Utilizing data encompassing 40 indicators (exposure, susceptibility, and resilience), we assess the physical/structural, social, and economic/psychological vulnerability indices for slum households and the institutional vulnerability of 41 entities. Despite significant challenges of poor infrastructure and lack of basic disaster management tools, slum residents have developed recognizable strategies to overcome flooding. Institutions carrying out intervention activities in the slums were largely incompetent and plagued with challenges ranging from lack of technical know-how to access to funds and coordination. Finally, a significant gap exists between state efforts and the impacts of these efforts on the residents of these slums. These findings complement household-level data and provide an expanded understanding of vulnerability patterns, thus informing policymakers about interventions.
大城市的城市化导致城市贫民窟日益扩大。这种情况,再加上气候变化导致的危害增加,以及贫民窟的恶劣特征,导致贫民窟住区受到的洪水影响大大增加。因此,需要有专门的洪水脆弱性评估工具,将城市贫民窟的具体特点纳入其中。各项研究都致力于综合、多维度的洪水脆弱性研究。然而,在发展中国家,将贫民窟的社会、经济、结构和制度现实纳入评估的情况并不多见。本研究全面评估了城市贫民窟的洪水脆弱性。由于贫民窟居民、地方议会、专家和地方非政府组织往往对研究区域内基本服务的可用性、获取途径和质量有着深刻的见解,因此本研究从简化的角度对城市贫民窟的脆弱性进行了评估,并从贫民窟居民、地方议会、专家和地方非政府组织那里获取了数据。利用包含 40 个指标(暴露、易受影响程度和复原力)的数据,我们对贫民窟家庭的物质/结构、社会和经济/心理脆弱性指数以及 41 个实体的机构脆弱性进行了评估。尽管面临基础设施薄弱、缺乏基本灾害管理工具等重大挑战,贫民窟居民仍制定了可识别的策略来克服洪灾。在贫民窟开展干预活动的机构大多能力不足,面临着从缺乏技术诀窍到获取资金和协调等各种挑战。最后,国家所做的努力与这些努力对贫民窟居民的影响之间存在巨大差距。这些研究结果补充了家庭层面的数据,扩大了对脆弱性模式的理解,从而为政策制定者提供了有关干预措施的信息。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing urban fire risk: An ensemble learning approach based on scenarios and cases 评估城市火灾风险:基于情景和案例的集合学习法
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104941
Shibo Cui, Ning Wang, Enhui Zhao, Jing Zhang, Chunli Zhang
Urban fires represent a significant hazard to people’s lives and property, which makes it critical to estimate the risk adequately. Existing urban fire evaluation methods lack applicability because they do not take into account individual scene components and previous cases. As a result, this study offers the scenario- and case-based urban fire risk assessment approach (SCBUFRA), which seeks to achieve a more thorough and accurate urban fire risk assessment. First, the technique uses fire case and scenario data, as well as the recursive feature elimination method, to pick the elements utilized to assess urban fire risk. Second, the data-driven empowerment technique and stability analysis are utilized to determine the precise fire risk value and correctly quantify the fire danger level in each part of the city. Next, the Affinity Propagation (AP) technique is used to cluster scene elements. Ensemble learning is then used to create a risk prediction model by refining the weighting strategy of R2. Finally, Shapley additive explanations are used to investigate the elements causing urban fires. The findings show that SCBUFRA outperforms popular machine learning methods, that the number of crimes, gross population, and house price are the most important variables for fire prediction, and that the research is applicable to urban fire risk management and firefighting resource allocation.
城市火灾对人们的生命和财产构成重大威胁,因此充分估计风险至关重要。现有的城市火灾评估方法缺乏适用性,因为它们没有考虑到各个场景的组成部分和以往的案例。因此,本研究提出了基于场景和案例的城市火灾风险评估方法(SCBUFRA),旨在实现更全面、更准确的城市火灾风险评估。首先,该技术利用火灾案例和情景数据,以及递归特征消除法,挑选出用于评估城市火灾风险的要素。其次,利用数据驱动的授权技术和稳定性分析来确定精确的火灾风险值,并正确量化城市各区域的火灾危险等级。接着,使用亲和传播(AP)技术对场景元素进行聚类。然后,通过改进 R2 的加权策略,利用集合学习创建风险预测模型。最后,使用 Shapley 加法解释来研究导致城市火灾的因素。研究结果表明,SCBUFRA 优于流行的机器学习方法,犯罪数量、总人口和房价是火灾预测的最重要变量,该研究适用于城市火灾风险管理和消防资源分配。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying uncertainty in landslide susceptibility mapping due to sampling randomness 量化采样随机性导致的滑坡易发性绘图的不确定性
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104966
Lei-Lei Liu , Shuang-Lin Zhao , Can Yang , Wengang Zhang
The quality of landslide and non-landslide samples plays a crucial role in landslide susceptibility maps (LSMs) generated using machine learning algorithms. However, uncertainties arising from the collection of non-landslide samples can significantly compromise the reliability of these maps. Current methods, such as buffer-controlled sampling (BCS), often fail to address this issue adequately. This study aims to fill that gap by employing Monte Carlo simulations combined with BCS to quantify the uncertainties associated with non-landslide sampling and improve the accuracy of LSMs. A novel framework is proposed by incorporating landslide susceptibility confidence maps (LSCMs) to address the inherent uncertainty in BCS-based LSMs. The framework evaluates inconsistencies in LSMs, showing that maps generated by the same model may differ in over 30 % of the area due to variations in selection of non-landslide samples. The proposed approach outperforms traditional methods by correctly classifying landslide-prone areas, particularly in low and very low susceptibility zones, while providing a more reliable quantification of uncertainty. These findings underscore the limitations of traditional LSM methods and demonstrate that LSCMs offer a more robust tool for landslide hazard assessment. The framework enhances the precision of susceptibility mapping and provides critical insights for better risk mitigation and disaster preparedness.
滑坡和非滑坡样本的质量在使用机器学习算法生成的滑坡易感性图(LSM)中起着至关重要的作用。然而,收集非滑坡样本所产生的不确定性会严重影响这些地图的可靠性。缓冲控制采样 (BCS) 等现有方法往往无法充分解决这一问题。本研究旨在通过采用蒙特卡罗模拟结合 BCS 来量化与非滑坡取样相关的不确定性,并提高 LSM 的准确性,从而填补这一空白。通过结合滑坡易感性置信度图 (LSCM),提出了一个新颖的框架,以解决基于 BCS 的 LSM 固有的不确定性。该框架对 LSM 中的不一致性进行了评估,结果表明,由于非滑坡样本选择的不同,同一模型生成的地图可能在 30% 以上的区域存在差异。所提出的方法优于传统方法,能正确划分滑坡易发区,尤其是在低易发区和极低易发区,同时还能提供更可靠的不确定性量化。这些发现强调了传统 LSM 方法的局限性,并证明 LSCM 为滑坡灾害评估提供了更强大的工具。该框架提高了易感性绘图的精确度,并为更好地减轻风险和备灾提供了重要见解。
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引用次数: 0
A novel spatial-aware deep learning approach for exploring the environmental context of terrorist attacks and armed conflicts 探索恐怖袭击和武装冲突环境背景的新型空间感知深度学习方法
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104921
Zhan'ao Zhao , Kai Liu , Ming Wang
The quantitative assessment of terrorist attacks and armed conflicts (TAACs) is a crucial component of global public safety research and is vital for societal stability and national security. This study addresses the spatial dependency of such events, i.e., the relationship between the outbreak of an event and its environment. Based on geographic big data and artificial intelligence (AI), we propose a spatial feature utilization pattern that takes into account the impact of the event environment, and established a deep learning (DL) framework of features within the joint event location and space neighborhood to improve the precision of the quantitative assessment. The results demonstrate that in scenarios under a combination of 14 social, natural, and geographic driving factors, models that incorporate spatial features outperform those that only use location features during both the training and testing phases. Furthermore, models that consider both location and spatial features outperform models using only a single feature across various evaluation metrics. Global attribution analysis further confirms the spatial dependency of events, manifested in the mutual influence on the likelihood of events occurring among adjacent cities and the correlation with various environmental factors, particularly elements related to human activities and living environments. We find that both prosperous urban centers and underdeveloped rural areas are hotspots for TAACs, and that such events more likely to occur in harsh climatic patterns characterized by high temperatures and low precipitation. This enhances our understanding and preparedness for managing and preventing such events.
恐怖袭击和武装冲突(TAACs)的定量评估是全球公共安全研究的重要组成部分,对社会稳定和国家安全至关重要。本研究探讨了此类事件的空间依赖性,即事件爆发与环境之间的关系。基于地理大数据和人工智能(AI),我们提出了一种考虑到事件环境影响的空间特征利用模式,并在事件位置和空间邻域联合范围内建立了特征深度学习(DL)框架,以提高定量评估的精度。结果表明,在 14 种社会、自然和地理驱动因素共同作用下的场景中,包含空间特征的模型在训练和测试阶段的表现均优于仅使用位置特征的模型。此外,同时考虑位置和空间特征的模型在各种评价指标上都优于只使用单一特征的模型。全局归因分析进一步证实了事件的空间依赖性,表现为相邻城市间事件发生可能性的相互影响,以及与各种环境因素的相关性,尤其是与人类活动和生活环境相关的因素。我们发现,繁荣的城市中心和欠发达的农村地区都是 TAAC 的热点地区,而且这类事件更有可能发生在以高温和低降水为特征的恶劣气候模式中。这增强了我们对管理和预防此类事件的理解和准备。
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引用次数: 0
Population activity recovery: Milestones unfolding, temporal interdependencies, and relationship with physical and social vulnerability 人口活动的恢复:正在展开的里程碑、时间上的相互依赖以及与身体和社会脆弱性的关系
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104931
Flavia-Ioana Patrascu , Ali Mostafavi
Understanding sequential community recovery milestones is crucial for proactive recovery planning and monitoring and targeted interventions. This study investigates these milestones related to population activities to examine their temporal interdependencies and evaluate the relationship between recovery milestones and physical (residential property damage) and socioeconomic vulnerability (through household income). This study leverages post-2017 Hurricane Harvey mobility data from Harris County to specify and analyze temporal recovery milestones and their interdependencies. The analysis examined four key milestones: return to evacuated areas, recovery of essential and non-essential services, and the rate of home-switch (moving out of residences). Robust linear regression validates interdependencies between across milestone lags and sequences: achieving earlier milestones accelerates subsequent recovery milestones. The study thus identifies six primary recovery milestone sequences. We found that socioeconomic vulnerability accounted through the median household income level, rather than physical vulnerability to flooding accounted through the property damage extent, correlates with recovery delays between milestones. We studied variations in recovery sequences across lower and upper quantiles of property damage extent and median household income: lower property damage extent and lower household income show greater representation in the “slowest to recover” sequence, while households with greater damage and higher income are predominant in the group with the “fastest recovery sequences”. Milestone sequence variability aligns closely with income, independent of physical vulnerability. This empowers emergency managers to effectively monitor and manage recovery efforts, enabling timely interventions.
了解连续的社区恢复里程碑对于积极的恢复规划、监测和有针对性的干预措施至关重要。本研究调查了这些与人口活动相关的里程碑,以研究其时间上的相互依赖性,并评估恢复里程碑与物理(住宅财产损失)和社会经济脆弱性(通过家庭收入)之间的关系。本研究利用哈里斯县 2017 年 "哈维 "飓风后的流动性数据,明确并分析了时间上的恢复里程碑及其相互依存关系。分析考察了四个关键的里程碑:返回疏散地区、基本和非基本服务的恢复以及家庭转换率(搬离住所)。稳健的线性回归验证了各里程碑滞后期和序列之间的相互依存关系:实现早期里程碑可加快后续恢复里程碑的实现。因此,本研究确定了六个主要的恢复里程碑序列。我们发现,通过家庭收入中位数计算的社会经济脆弱性,而不是通过财产损失程度计算的洪灾物理脆弱性,与里程碑之间的恢复延迟相关。我们研究了财产损失程度和家庭收入中位数的上下限恢复顺序的变化:财产损失程度较低和家庭收入较低的家庭在 "恢复最慢 "的顺序中占有较大比例,而财产损失程度较高和收入较高的家庭在 "恢复最快 "的顺序中占有较大比例。里程碑序列的变化与收入密切相关,与身体脆弱性无关。这使应急管理人员能够有效地监测和管理恢复工作,及时采取干预措施。
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International journal of disaster risk reduction
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