International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第4页

Representing multi-hazard events in urban systems: An ontology-based model 表示城市系统中的多灾害事件：一个基于本体的模型

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105990

Cristine Griffo, Massimiliano Pittore

The United Nations World Cities Report 2022 predicts that global urbanization will increase from 56% in 2021 to 68% in 2050. This will lead to consequences, including the impact of natural, environmental, and anthropogenic risks on cities. These risks will manifest as physical damage to buildings and adverse effects on services to the population and socio-economic structures, as well as losses of life. Cities are adaptive complex systems with intricate interactions between inhabitants and infrastructure, often compared to living organisms. As system complexity increases, understanding and sharing information become more challenging. One alternative to address these challenges is the development of ontological models that use modeling languages to capture the shared semantics of specific parts of the world and their perceived reality, thereby improving understanding and information sharing. Although there are ontological models and taxonomies in the literature that address topics such as cities, population, urban infrastructure, and the geosphere, few represent these elements coexisting and from different perspectives of risk and hazards. Moreover, most of them do not use foundational ontologies, which can lead to inconsistencies and validation drawbacks. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the multi-risk analysis in urban systems and risk reduction by addressing the aforementioned gaps. To this end, a risk-driven ontological model of urban systems is proposed. This model is based on a foundational ontology and integrates the main elements of an urban system. In addition, a thesaurus was implemented and made available online on an open-source platform (Skosmos platform) that is easily accessible to both experts and laypeople. The results were validated with stakeholders through case studies, storylines, and interviews.

联合国《2022年世界城市报告》预测，全球城市化将从2021年的56%上升到2050年的68%。这将导致后果，包括自然、环境和人为风险对城市的影响。这些风险将表现为对建筑物的有形破坏和对人口和社会经济结构的服务的不利影响，以及生命损失。城市是具有适应性的复杂系统，居民和基础设施之间有着错综复杂的相互作用，通常被比作生物体。随着系统复杂性的增加，理解和共享信息变得更加具有挑战性。解决这些挑战的一个替代方案是开发本体模型，该模型使用建模语言捕获世界的特定部分及其感知现实的共享语义，从而提高理解和信息共享。虽然文献中有一些本体论模型和分类，涉及城市、人口、城市基础设施和地圈等主题，但很少有从不同的风险和危害角度代表这些元素共存的。此外，它们中的大多数不使用基础本体，这可能导致不一致和验证缺陷。本文的目的是通过解决上述差距，为城市系统的多风险分析和风险降低做出贡献。为此，提出了风险驱动的城市系统本体论模型。该模型建立在基础本体的基础上，整合了城市系统的主要元素。此外，还实现了一个词库，并在一个开源平台（Skosmos平台）上在线提供，专家和外行都可以轻松访问。结果通过案例研究、故事情节和访谈与涉众进行验证。

{"title":"Representing multi-hazard events in urban systems: An ontology-based model","authors":"Cristine Griffo, Massimiliano Pittore","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105990","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105990","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The United Nations World Cities Report 2022 predicts that global urbanization will increase from 56% in 2021 to 68% in 2050. This will lead to consequences, including the impact of natural, environmental, and anthropogenic risks on cities. These risks will manifest as physical damage to buildings and adverse effects on services to the population and socio-economic structures, as well as losses of life. Cities are adaptive complex systems with intricate interactions between inhabitants and infrastructure, often compared to living organisms. As system complexity increases, understanding and sharing information become more challenging. One alternative to address these challenges is the development of ontological models that use modeling languages to capture the shared semantics of specific parts of the world and their perceived reality, thereby improving understanding and information sharing. Although there are ontological models and taxonomies in the literature that address topics such as cities, population, urban infrastructure, and the geosphere, few represent these elements coexisting and from different perspectives of risk and hazards. Moreover, most of them do not use foundational ontologies, which can lead to inconsistencies and validation drawbacks. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the multi-risk analysis in urban systems and risk reduction by addressing the aforementioned gaps. To this end, a risk-driven ontological model of urban systems is proposed. This model is based on a foundational ontology and integrates the main elements of an urban system. In addition, a thesaurus was implemented and made available online on an open-source platform (Skosmos platform) that is easily accessible to both experts and laypeople. The results were validated with stakeholders through case studies, storylines, and interviews.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105990"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Application of cost-benefit analysis for establishing coastal erosion setback buffer zones in South Korea 成本效益分析在韩国海岸侵蚀后退缓冲区建设中的应用

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106001

Byung-Chul Lee , Jung Eun Kang , Sang-hyeok Lee , Sung Soon Yoon

Setting up buffer zones to avoid coastal erosion is a method used worldwide, but not been widely adopted in South Korea. The economic feasibility of buffer zones raises questions. Using spatial cost-benefit analysis (CBA), this study compared setback acquisition costs with previously invested costs in hard protection and nourishment at two contrasting beaches: Gungchon-Munam Beach (in a rural area) and Haeundae Beach (in a highly developed urban area). Erosion zones by 2100 were predicted using MeePaSoL and HaeSaBeeN under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 sea-level rise scenarios. For Gungchon-Munam Beach, the results showed that the entire erosion-prone area can be acquired at a lower cost than past investments in hard infrastructure. By contrast, owing to high land and building values, Haeundae Beach allows only partial acquisition under equivalent costs. However, priority areas for setback buffer zones can still be identified. These findings suggest that setback strategies may be more economically viable in rural areas and selectively applicable in urban zones. This study proposes a replicable spatial CBA framework for determining effective setback areas, providing a decision-making tool for integrated coastal management. While the analysis focused on economic factors, the results highlight the need for future studies to incorporate ecological and social factors into the research. The proposed method supports precautionary coastal planning under climate change and can aid in long-term resilience by minimizing sunk costs and improving adaptive policy decisions.

为防止海岸侵蚀，在世界各地都有建立缓冲地带的做法，但在韩国并没有广泛采用。缓冲区的经济可行性提出了问题。利用空间成本效益分析（CBA），本研究比较了两个对比海滩的挫折获取成本与先前在硬保护和营养方面的投资成本：Gungchon-Munam海滩（农村地区）和Haeundae海滩（高度发达的城市地区）。在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5海平面上升情景下，使用MeePaSoL和HaeSaBeeN对2100年的侵蚀带进行了预测。对于gunchon - munam海滩，结果表明，与过去的硬基础设施投资相比，可以以更低的成本获得整个易受侵蚀的地区。相比之下，海云台海水浴场由于土地和建筑价格较高，只能在同等费用下部分收购。但是，仍然可以确定后退缓冲区的优先区域。这些研究结果表明，倒退战略在农村地区可能更具经济可行性，并有选择地适用于城市地区。本研究提出了一个可复制的空间CBA框架，用于确定有效的后退区，为沿海综合管理提供决策工具。虽然分析侧重于经济因素，但结果强调了未来研究将生态和社会因素纳入研究的必要性。所提出的方法支持气候变化下的预防性沿海规划，并可以通过最小化沉没成本和改进适应性政策决策来帮助长期恢复力。

{"title":"Application of cost-benefit analysis for establishing coastal erosion setback buffer zones in South Korea","authors":"Byung-Chul Lee , Jung Eun Kang , Sang-hyeok Lee , Sung Soon Yoon","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Setting up buffer zones to avoid coastal erosion is a method used worldwide, but not been widely adopted in South Korea. The economic feasibility of buffer zones raises questions. Using spatial cost-benefit analysis (CBA), this study compared setback acquisition costs with previously invested costs in hard protection and nourishment at two contrasting beaches: Gungchon-Munam Beach (in a rural area) and Haeundae Beach (in a highly developed urban area). Erosion zones by 2100 were predicted using MeePaSoL and HaeSaBeeN under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 sea-level rise scenarios. For Gungchon-Munam Beach, the results showed that the entire erosion-prone area can be acquired at a lower cost than past investments in hard infrastructure. By contrast, owing to high land and building values, Haeundae Beach allows only partial acquisition under equivalent costs. However, priority areas for setback buffer zones can still be identified. These findings suggest that setback strategies may be more economically viable in rural areas and selectively applicable in urban zones. This study proposes a replicable spatial CBA framework for determining effective setback areas, providing a decision-making tool for integrated coastal management. While the analysis focused on economic factors, the results highlight the need for future studies to incorporate ecological and social factors into the research. The proposed method supports precautionary coastal planning under climate change and can aid in long-term resilience by minimizing sunk costs and improving adaptive policy decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 106001"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A stochastic rain-on-grid framework for handling spatio-temporal rainfall uncertainty in impact-based flood nowcasting 基于影响的洪水临近预报中处理降水时空不确定性的随机网格降雨框架

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105998

Pierfranco Costabile , Margherita Lombardo , Carmelina Costanzo , Ioannis Tsoukalas , Vasilis Bellos

Predicting flash flood impacts remains a major challenge due to intrinsic uncertainty in rainfall spatial-temporal structure and limited understanding of how rainfall organization propagates through hydrological and hydrodynamic processes to generate urban-scale impacts. These limitations hinder the development of reliable impact-based early warning systems for small, fast-responding catchments.

To address these challenges, we introduce a Stochastic Rain-on-Grid framework that explicitly accounts for rainfall uncertainty by coupling a high-resolution stochastic rainfall generator with a 2D hydrodynamic model operating at the watershed scale. The framework is applied to a representative high-impact flash flood event affecting a piedmont urbanized area characterized by complex interactions between mountain and urban flooding processes. Using 100 equiprobable synthetic storms reproducing the statistical properties of the observed radar rainfall (200 m, 2 min), we assess how rainfall spatio-temporal variability alone influences catchment response and street-level flood impacts.

Results show substantial variability in simulated hydrographs despite statistically similar rainfall inputs, while this variability systematically attenuates at the street scale, leading to more stable hazard classifications. This indicates that impact-based hydrodynamic indicators are more robust targets for early warning systems than traditional hydrograph-based metrics. Analysis of rainfall structure metrics reveals that spatial and temporal coefficients of variation consistently correlate with impact severity. Building on these relationships, we propose the Storm Variability Diagram, which classifies equiprobable events by expected impact and significantly reduces uncertainty in hazard mapping through ensemble partitioning.

Overall, this study provides a proof-of-concept for impact-oriented uncertainty assessment through a modular and transferable framework, supporting uncertainty-aware flash flood forecasting.

由于降雨时空结构的内在不确定性以及对降雨组织如何通过水文和水动力过程传播以产生城市规模影响的理解有限，预测山洪影响仍然是一个主要挑战。这些限制阻碍了为小型、快速反应集水区开发可靠的基于影响的预警系统。为了应对这些挑战，我们引入了一个随机降雨网格框架，该框架通过将高分辨率随机降雨发生器与在流域尺度上运行的二维水动力模型相结合，明确地解释了降雨的不确定性。该框架应用于一个具有代表性的山前城市化地区的高影响山洪事件，该地区的山洪过程与城市洪水过程之间存在复杂的相互作用。利用100个等概率合成风暴再现了观测到的雷达降雨（200米，2分钟）的统计特性，我们评估了降雨时空变化如何单独影响流域响应和街道洪水影响。结果显示，尽管统计上的降雨输入相似，但在模拟水文中存在实质性的变异性，而这种变异性在街道尺度上系统地减弱，从而导致更稳定的灾害分类。这表明基于冲击的水动力指标比传统的基于水文的指标更适合早期预警系统。降雨结构指标分析表明，时空变异系数与影响严重程度一致。在这些关系的基础上，我们提出了风暴变率图，该图根据预期影响对等概率事件进行分类，并通过集成划分显著降低了危险制图中的不确定性。总体而言，本研究通过模块化和可转移的框架，为影响导向的不确定性评估提供了概念验证，支持不确定性意识的山洪预报。

{"title":"A stochastic rain-on-grid framework for handling spatio-temporal rainfall uncertainty in impact-based flood nowcasting","authors":"Pierfranco Costabile , Margherita Lombardo , Carmelina Costanzo , Ioannis Tsoukalas , Vasilis Bellos","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105998","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105998","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Predicting flash flood impacts remains a major challenge due to intrinsic uncertainty in rainfall spatial-temporal structure and limited understanding of how rainfall organization propagates through hydrological and hydrodynamic processes to generate urban-scale impacts. These limitations hinder the development of reliable impact-based early warning systems for small, fast-responding catchments.</div><div>To address these challenges, we introduce a Stochastic Rain-on-Grid framework that explicitly accounts for rainfall uncertainty by coupling a high-resolution stochastic rainfall generator with a 2D hydrodynamic model operating at the watershed scale. The framework is applied to a representative high-impact flash flood event affecting a piedmont urbanized area characterized by complex interactions between mountain and urban flooding processes. Using 100 equiprobable synthetic storms reproducing the statistical properties of the observed radar rainfall (200 m, 2 min), we assess how rainfall spatio-temporal variability alone influences catchment response and street-level flood impacts.</div><div>Results show substantial variability in simulated hydrographs despite statistically similar rainfall inputs, while this variability systematically attenuates at the street scale, leading to more stable hazard classifications. This indicates that impact-based hydrodynamic indicators are more robust targets for early warning systems than traditional hydrograph-based metrics. Analysis of rainfall structure metrics reveals that spatial and temporal coefficients of variation consistently correlate with impact severity. Building on these relationships, we propose the Storm Variability Diagram, which classifies equiprobable events by expected impact and significantly reduces uncertainty in hazard mapping through ensemble partitioning.</div><div>Overall, this study provides a proof-of-concept for impact-oriented uncertainty assessment through a modular and transferable framework, supporting uncertainty-aware flash flood forecasting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"134 ","pages":"Article 105998"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Embedding collaboration in disaster response: Insights from the joint emergency services interoperability principles 在灾害应对中嵌入协作：来自联合应急服务互操作性原则的见解

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105992

Sara Waring, Nicole Balmer, Hannah Langley, Kelsea Williams, Elena Vaughan-Chantler, Nicola Power

Effective disaster response depends on the ability of diverse organisations to collaborate seamlessly under pressure. Previous research has largely centred on the ‘blue-light’ emergency services (police, fire, and ambulance), with much less being known about how wider emergency and resilience partners experience and enact collaboration in practice. This paper addresses that gap by examining the perceived challenges and opportunities for multi-agency cooperation across a broader range of responders. Drawing on twenty-six semi-structured interviews with representatives from local authorities, the National Health Service, His Majesty's Coastguard, the UK Health Security Agency, and the Ministry of Defence, the study explores how the UK's national Joint Emergency Services Interoperability Principles (JESIP) framework is understood and applied beyond traditional emergency services. Thematic analysis revealed seven interrelated factors shaping the embedding of JESIP: (i) Inclusivity; (ii) Training and exercising; (iii) Continuous learning and development; (iv) Relationships; (v) Organisational culture and policies; (vi) Technology; and (vi) Personnel and financial constraints. Findings indicate that while JESIP provides a valuable foundation for coordination, its perceived ‘blue-light’ focus limits engagement and ownership across the wider emergency community. By highlighting the experiences of often-overlooked responders, this study offers new insight into how interoperability frameworks can be made more inclusive, adaptive, and effective. The research contributes to both policy and practice by informing the evolution of multi-agency collaboration mechanisms critical to saving lives and strengthening resilience during future crises.

有效的灾难响应取决于不同组织在压力下无缝协作的能力。以前的研究主要集中在“蓝光”紧急服务（警察、消防和救护车）上，而对更广泛的紧急和复原力合作伙伴如何在实践中体验和制定合作知之甚少。本文通过研究在更广泛的应对者范围内开展多机构合作所面临的挑战和机遇来解决这一差距。通过对来自地方当局、国家卫生服务、海岸警卫队、英国卫生安全局和国防部代表的26次半结构化访谈，该研究探讨了英国国家联合应急服务互操作性原则（JESIP）框架是如何被理解和应用于传统应急服务之外的。专题分析揭示了形成JESIP嵌入的七个相互关联的因素：(i)包容性；训练和演习；不断学习和发展；(iv)关系;组织文化和政策；(vi)技术;人事和财政限制。调查结果表明，虽然JESIP为协调提供了宝贵的基础，但其被认为的“蓝光”焦点限制了更广泛的应急社区的参与和所有权。通过强调经常被忽视的响应者的经验，本研究为如何使互操作性框架更具包容性、适应性和有效性提供了新的见解。该研究为在未来危机中拯救生命和加强复原力至关重要的多机构协作机制的演变提供了信息，有助于促进政策和实践。

{"title":"Embedding collaboration in disaster response: Insights from the joint emergency services interoperability principles","authors":"Sara Waring, Nicole Balmer, Hannah Langley, Kelsea Williams, Elena Vaughan-Chantler, Nicola Power","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105992","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105992","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective disaster response depends on the ability of diverse organisations to collaborate seamlessly under pressure. Previous research has largely centred on the ‘blue-light’ emergency services (police, fire, and ambulance), with much less being known about how wider emergency and resilience partners experience and enact collaboration in practice. This paper addresses that gap by examining the perceived challenges and opportunities for multi-agency cooperation across a broader range of responders. Drawing on twenty-six semi-structured interviews with representatives from local authorities, the National Health Service, His Majesty's Coastguard, the UK Health Security Agency, and the Ministry of Defence, the study explores how the UK's national <strong>Joint Emergency Services Interoperability Principles (JESIP)</strong> framework is understood and applied beyond traditional emergency services. Thematic analysis revealed seven interrelated factors shaping the embedding of JESIP: <strong>(</strong>i) Inclusivity; (ii) Training and exercising; (iii) Continuous learning and development; (iv) Relationships; (v) Organisational culture and policies; (vi) Technology; and (vi) Personnel and financial constraints. Findings indicate that while JESIP provides a valuable foundation for coordination, its perceived ‘blue-light’ focus limits engagement and ownership across the wider emergency community. By highlighting the experiences of often-overlooked responders, this study offers new insight into how interoperability frameworks can be made more inclusive, adaptive, and effective. The research contributes to both policy and practice by informing the evolution of multi-agency collaboration mechanisms critical to saving lives and strengthening resilience during future crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105992"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multivariate logistic wind fragility functions of overhead distribution poles 架空配电杆的多变量logistic风脆弱性函数

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105996

Muneer Qudaisat , Alice Alipour

Overhead distribution lines are highly vulnerable to extreme wind events, yet fragility modeling remains challenging due to multiple interacting failure mechanisms and strong dependence on asset and site characteristics. This study presents a physics-informed and scalable framework for modeling multivariate wind-induced fragility of overhead utility networks. The approach integrates stochastic wind simulation, generated to match the Kaimal turbulence spectrum and validated using spectral error metrics, with finite-element–based structural analysis to capture governing failure mechanisms, including pole rupture, pole overturning, and conductor tensile breakage. Mode-specific multivariate logistic regression models are calibrated as parameterized, closed-form surrogate fragility functions based on measurable asset, geotechnical, and hazard descriptors, allowing for direct application without the need for repeated finite-element simulations or statistical analysis. The resulting models demonstrate strong and stable predictive performance across pole classes and failure modes, with AUC values exceeding 0.97. Joint failure probability is quantified using both independence-based aggregation and a copula-based formulation that captures dependence between competing failure modes, enabling consistent risk aggregation from individual spans to feeder-level applications. By combining physics-based modeling with computational efficiency and closed-form fragility expressions, the proposed framework supports practical, risk-informed screening and planning of power distribution infrastructure under extreme wind hazards.

架空配电线路极易受到极端风事件的影响，但由于多种相互作用的失效机制以及对资产和场地特征的强烈依赖，脆弱性建模仍然具有挑战性。本研究提出了一个物理信息和可扩展的框架，用于建模架空公用事业网络的多变量风致脆弱性。该方法将随机风模拟（生成用于匹配Kaimal湍流谱并使用谱误差度量进行验证）与基于有限元的结构分析相结合，以捕获控制失效机制，包括极断裂、极翻转和导体拉伸断裂。特定模式的多变量逻辑回归模型被校准为基于可测量资产、岩土和危害描述符的参数化、封闭形式的替代脆弱性函数，允许直接应用，而无需重复的有限元模拟或统计分析。结果表明，该模型在杆类和失效模式下具有强大而稳定的预测性能，AUC值超过0.97。采用基于独立性的聚合和基于copula的公式量化联合失效概率，该公式捕获竞争失效模式之间的依赖性，从而实现从单个跨度到馈线级应用的一致风险聚合。通过将基于物理的建模与计算效率和封闭形式的脆弱性表达式相结合，所提出的框架支持在极端风力灾害下对配电基础设施进行实用的、风险知情的筛选和规划。

{"title":"Multivariate logistic wind fragility functions of overhead distribution poles","authors":"Muneer Qudaisat , Alice Alipour","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105996","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105996","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Overhead distribution lines are highly vulnerable to extreme wind events, yet fragility modeling remains challenging due to multiple interacting failure mechanisms and strong dependence on asset and site characteristics. This study presents a physics-informed and scalable framework for modeling multivariate wind-induced fragility of overhead utility networks. The approach integrates stochastic wind simulation, generated to match the Kaimal turbulence spectrum and validated using spectral error metrics, with finite-element–based structural analysis to capture governing failure mechanisms, including pole rupture, pole overturning, and conductor tensile breakage. Mode-specific multivariate logistic regression models are calibrated as parameterized, closed-form surrogate fragility functions based on measurable asset, geotechnical, and hazard descriptors, allowing for direct application without the need for repeated finite-element simulations or statistical analysis. The resulting models demonstrate strong and stable predictive performance across pole classes and failure modes, with AUC values exceeding 0.97. Joint failure probability is quantified using both independence-based aggregation and a copula-based formulation that captures dependence between competing failure modes, enabling consistent risk aggregation from individual spans to feeder-level applications. By combining physics-based modeling with computational efficiency and closed-form fragility expressions, the proposed framework supports practical, risk-informed screening and planning of power distribution infrastructure under extreme wind hazards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"134 ","pages":"Article 105996"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146075681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Strengthening community disaster resilience in uncertain times: a multi-level analysis of an Australian bushfire 在不确定时期加强社区抗灾能力：对澳大利亚森林大火的多层次分析

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106000

Matthew Daly , Tillmann Boehme , Neil Turner , James Aitken , Alan Green , Scott McKinnon , Christine Eriksen , Paul Cooper

This paper examines how community groups develop resilience over time through influencing and interacting with different societal levels throughout the phases of the disaster management cycle: prevention, preparation, response, and recovery. This provides an opportunity for a more insightful and holistic understanding of the factors involved in resilience. The macro/governmental level shapes governance of bushfire management and resources; the micro level reflects the actions of individual and households; while the meso level represents local community groups providing a bridge between the two through trust-based integration and collaboration.

This four-year longitudinal study used a complexity analysis framework to reveal latent tensions, as well as strong social relationships and community connections. These had implications for the emergent, local-specific responses to the bushfires, based on community attributes, needs and characteristics. The work reveals the importance of the meso level as a bridge between the governmental and individual levels, which can support tailoring, reconfiguring, and organising resources to strengthen resilience. These findings also have implications for shared responsibility, as community-based organisations may disagree with objectives at other levels, eroding resilience across the entire system. The analysis in this paper indicates that careful, flexible integration of the locally specific knowledge, meso level coordination, relationship-building, and transparent information-sharing that community-based organisation can provide, can be beneficial in effectively managing the multiple complexities of disasters.

本文考察了社区团体如何在灾害管理周期的各个阶段（预防、准备、响应和恢复）通过影响和互动不同的社会层面，随着时间的推移发展复原力。这为更深刻和全面地理解弹性所涉及的因素提供了机会。宏观/政府层面塑造了森林火灾管理和资源的治理；微观层面反映个人和家庭的行为；而中观层面则代表地方社区团体，通过基于信任的整合和协作在两者之间架起一座桥梁。这项为期四年的纵向研究使用了一个复杂性分析框架来揭示潜在的紧张关系，以及强大的社会关系和社区联系。这对基于社区属性、需求和特征的紧急、当地特定的森林火灾响应具有影响。这项工作揭示了中观层面作为政府和个人之间的桥梁的重要性，它可以支持裁剪、重新配置和组织资源以增强复原力。这些发现也对共同责任产生了影响，因为以社区为基础的组织可能不同意其他层面的目标，从而侵蚀了整个系统的弹性。本文的分析表明，以社区为基础的组织可以提供的地方特定知识、中尺度协调、关系建立和透明信息共享的谨慎、灵活的整合，可能有助于有效地管理灾害的多重复杂性。

{"title":"Strengthening community disaster resilience in uncertain times: a multi-level analysis of an Australian bushfire","authors":"Matthew Daly , Tillmann Boehme , Neil Turner , James Aitken , Alan Green , Scott McKinnon , Christine Eriksen , Paul Cooper","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106000","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106000","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how community groups develop resilience over time through influencing and interacting with different societal levels throughout the phases of the disaster management cycle: prevention, preparation, response, and recovery. This provides an opportunity for a more insightful and holistic understanding of the factors involved in resilience. The macro/governmental level shapes governance of bushfire management and resources; the micro level reflects the actions of individual and households; while the meso level represents local community groups providing a bridge between the two through trust-based integration and collaboration.</div><div>This four-year longitudinal study used a complexity analysis framework to reveal latent tensions, as well as strong social relationships and community connections. These had implications for the emergent, local-specific responses to the bushfires, based on community attributes, needs and characteristics. The work reveals the importance of the meso level as a bridge between the governmental and individual levels, which can support tailoring, reconfiguring, and organising resources to strengthen resilience. These findings also have implications for shared responsibility, as community-based organisations may disagree with objectives at other levels, eroding resilience across the entire system. The analysis in this paper indicates that careful, flexible integration of the locally specific knowledge, meso level coordination, relationship-building, and transparent information-sharing that community-based organisation can provide, can be beneficial in effectively managing the multiple complexities of disasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 106000"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Data assimilation in emergency department simulations for real-time disaster response 急诊部门实时灾害响应模拟中的数据同化

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105995

Roben Delos Reyes , Daniel Capurro , Nicholas Geard

Mass casualty incidents (MCIs) due to disasters such as earthquakes and infectious disease outbreaks create a sudden surge of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Responding appropriately to these incidents requires EDs to have situational awareness of both the current and future impacts of an MCI on patient presentation and resource allocation. ED simulation models are used to support such decision making by simulating how MCIs will affect an ED based on hypothetical assumptions or historical data from past MCIs. However, because each MCI can unfold differently, there remains a need to update these ED simulation models using ED observations collected as an MCI unfolds to adequately represent the ED’s current conditions in reality. Here, we present a novel data assimilation method for incorporating recently collected observations into an ED simulation model to align the conditions in the simulation model with the conditions in its real-world ED counterpart during an unfolding MCI. We demonstrate that using real-time ED observations can generate more accurate and reliable estimates of the ED’s current conditions and forecasts of its future conditions, compared with relying solely on past observations. Our results highlight how ED simulation models can function as real-time decision support tools in the ED, particularly for enhancing situational awareness during MCIs to support real-time disaster response.

由于地震和传染病爆发等灾害导致的大规模伤亡事件（MCIs）导致急诊科（ED）的患者突然激增。对这些事件做出适当的反应需要急诊科对MCI对病人表现和资源分配的当前和未来影响有情境意识。通过基于假设假设或过去mci的历史数据模拟mci将如何影响ED，使用ED模拟模型来支持此类决策。然而，由于每个MCI的展开方式不同，因此仍然需要使用MCI展开时收集的ED观测来更新这些ED模拟模型，以充分代表现实中的ED当前状况。在这里，我们提出了一种新的数据同化方法，将最近收集到的观测数据合并到ED模拟模型中，以便在展开的MCI期间将模拟模型中的条件与现实世界中对应的ED条件对齐。我们证明，与仅仅依靠过去的观测相比，使用实时ED观测可以对ED当前状况产生更准确和可靠的估计，并对其未来状况进行预测。我们的研究结果强调了ED仿真模型如何在ED中作为实时决策支持工具，特别是在MCIs期间增强态势感知以支持实时灾难响应。

{"title":"Data assimilation in emergency department simulations for real-time disaster response","authors":"Roben Delos Reyes , Daniel Capurro , Nicholas Geard","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105995","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105995","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mass casualty incidents (MCIs) due to disasters such as earthquakes and infectious disease outbreaks create a sudden surge of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Responding appropriately to these incidents requires EDs to have situational awareness of both the current and future impacts of an MCI on patient presentation and resource allocation. ED simulation models are used to support such decision making by simulating how MCIs will affect an ED based on hypothetical assumptions or historical data from past MCIs. However, because each MCI can unfold differently, there remains a need to update these ED simulation models using ED observations collected as an MCI unfolds to adequately represent the ED’s current conditions in reality. Here, we present a novel data assimilation method for incorporating recently collected observations into an ED simulation model to align the conditions in the simulation model with the conditions in its real-world ED counterpart during an unfolding MCI. We demonstrate that using real-time ED observations can generate more accurate and reliable estimates of the ED’s current conditions and forecasts of its future conditions, compared with relying solely on past observations. Our results highlight how ED simulation models can function as real-time decision support tools in the ED, particularly for enhancing situational awareness during MCIs to support real-time disaster response.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105995"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Diagnostic framework for causal inference in seasonal urban flooding: Precipitation-based control selection and synthetic difference-in-differences in Lagos, Nigeria 季节性城市洪水因果推理的诊断框架：尼日利亚拉各斯基于降水的控制选择和综合差异中的差异

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105993

Lele Zhang , Xin (Bruce) Wu , Kailun Liu , Md Abdullah Al Mehedi , Jiashu Zhou , Virginia Smith , Chenfeng Xiong

Establishing causal relationships between urban flooding and behavioral responses is challenging in tropical coastal cities experiencing seasonal flooding, where exposure often limits distinct control areas, rainy seasons with inundation episodes complicate discrete treatment timing, and satellite temporal resolution constrains flood tracking. We develop a framework that facilitates causal inference by shifting the unit of analysis from geographic locations to facility types. The framework uses two screening metrics to identify donor categories: Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) for identifying facility types whose visitation patterns exhibit minimal sensitivity to precipitation variability, thereby screening for weather-resilient categories rather than direct flood impacts, and Coefficient of Variation (CV) for assessing temporal stability across flood phases. The framework then integrates these selected donors into a hybrid Synthetic Control-Difference-in-Differences estimator. In Lagos, Nigeria’s June–July 2020 rainy season, the framework integrates Location-Based Services data, ERA5 precipitation reanalysis, Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, and OpenStreetMap infrastructure. Analysis reveals heterogeneity: healthcare visitation increased 40 % during flooding and remained elevated at 51 % above baseline through recovery; transportation declined 22 % with no recovery; retail exhibited post-flood rebounds of 35 %. Effect directions remained consistent across three control specifications (Religious-only, Residential-only, and optimized synthetic control), with the synthetic approach achieving 42–64 % reductions in standard errors relative to fixed controls. The framework provides a systematic approach for impact assessment in data-constrained disaster contexts where spatial controls are limited, and discrete event isolation is constrained by monitoring infrastructure. By using precipitation as a temporally resolved proxy for flood exposure, the framework estimates compound flood-season effects using data increasingly accessible in tropical urban settings.

在经历季节性洪水的热带沿海城市中，建立城市洪水与行为反应之间的因果关系具有挑战性，这些城市的暴露往往限制了不同的控制区域，洪水发作的雨季使离散的处理时间复杂化，卫星时间分辨率限制了洪水跟踪。我们开发了一个框架，通过将分析单元从地理位置转移到设施类型来促进因果推理。该框架使用两种筛选指标来确定捐赠类别：最大信息系数（MIC）用于识别访问模式对降水变化敏感性最低的设施类型，从而筛选天气弹性类别，而不是直接的洪水影响；变异系数（CV）用于评估洪水阶段的时间稳定性。然后，该框架将这些选定的捐助者集成到一个混合的综合控制-差中差估计器中。在尼日利亚拉各斯2020年6月至7月的雨季，该框架集成了基于位置的服务数据、ERA5降水再分析、Sentinel-1 SAR图像和OpenStreetMap基础设施。分析揭示了异质性：在洪水期间，就诊人数增加了40%，在恢复期间，就诊人数保持在高于基线51%的水平；运输业下降22%，没有复苏；零售业在洪水过后反弹了35%。效果方向在三个控制规范（仅宗教、仅居住和优化合成控制）中保持一致，与固定控制相比，合成方法的标准误差降低了42 - 64%。该框架为数据受限的灾害背景下的影响评估提供了一种系统方法，在这种情况下，空间控制有限，离散事件隔离受到监测基础设施的限制。通过使用降水作为洪水暴露的临时解决代理，该框架使用在热带城市环境中越来越容易获得的数据来估计复合洪水季节的影响。

{"title":"Diagnostic framework for causal inference in seasonal urban flooding: Precipitation-based control selection and synthetic difference-in-differences in Lagos, Nigeria","authors":"Lele Zhang , Xin (Bruce) Wu , Kailun Liu , Md Abdullah Al Mehedi , Jiashu Zhou , Virginia Smith , Chenfeng Xiong","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105993","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105993","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Establishing causal relationships between urban flooding and behavioral responses is challenging in tropical coastal cities experiencing seasonal flooding, where exposure often limits distinct control areas, rainy seasons with inundation episodes complicate discrete treatment timing, and satellite temporal resolution constrains flood tracking. We develop a framework that facilitates causal inference by shifting the unit of analysis from geographic locations to facility types. The framework uses two screening metrics to identify donor categories: Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) for identifying facility types whose visitation patterns exhibit minimal sensitivity to precipitation variability, thereby screening for weather-resilient categories rather than direct flood impacts, and Coefficient of Variation (CV) for assessing temporal stability across flood phases. The framework then integrates these selected donors into a hybrid Synthetic Control-Difference-in-Differences estimator. In Lagos, Nigeria’s June–July 2020 rainy season, the framework integrates Location-Based Services data, ERA5 precipitation reanalysis, Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, and OpenStreetMap infrastructure. Analysis reveals heterogeneity: healthcare visitation increased 40 % during flooding and remained elevated at 51 % above baseline through recovery; transportation declined 22 % with no recovery; retail exhibited post-flood rebounds of 35 %. Effect directions remained consistent across three control specifications (Religious-only, Residential-only, and optimized synthetic control), with the synthetic approach achieving 42–64 % reductions in standard errors relative to fixed controls. The framework provides a systematic approach for impact assessment in data-constrained disaster contexts where spatial controls are limited, and discrete event isolation is constrained by monitoring infrastructure. By using precipitation as a temporally resolved proxy for flood exposure, the framework estimates compound flood-season effects using data increasingly accessible in tropical urban settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105993"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-scenario analysis of debris flow propagation on the archaeological site of Villa Romana del Casale (Sicily, Italy) 意大利西西里岛Villa Romana del Casale考古遗址泥石流传播的多场景分析

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105991

Mariano Sanfilippo , Laura M. Stancanelli , Luca Cavallaro , Enrico Foti , Rosaria E. Musumeci

The cultural heritage of a nation represents its historical memory and its identity character, playing an important role in the economic, cultural, recreational and tourism sector of the country. However, numerous studies show that cultural sites, including historic buildings, city centres and archaeological sites, are exposed to natural risks. In particular archaeological sites are extremely vulnerable to extreme rainfall flooding and debris flow events and other associated natural phenomena, such as debris flows. The effects of different representations of the geometry of the archaeological area are evaluated through two-dimensional numerical modelling of debris flow propagation. The case study is represented by the archaeological site of Villa Romana del Casale in Piazza Armerina (EN), a UNESCO heritage site since 1997. A multi-scenario analysis is proposed to consider triggers of debris flows, upstream of the archaeological area. The results allow us to evaluate how different combinations of landslide events interact with the historical building. The impacts are evaluated in terms of arrival times of sediment flows at the archaeological area and of the volumes of debris and residual debris deposited at the site. Effectiveness of existing hydraulic defence works is also assessed. The results show that detailed modelling of the geometry of the structure, with the inclusion of the perimeter openings, is crucial not only for estimating the risk in the internal areas of the Villa but also for avoiding overestimation of debris flows outdoors of the archaeological site.

一个民族的文化遗产代表着这个民族的历史记忆和身份特征，在这个国家的经济、文化、娱乐和旅游部门中发挥着重要作用。然而，许多研究表明，包括历史建筑、城市中心和考古遗址在内的文化遗址面临着自然风险。特别是考古遗址极易受到极端降雨、洪水和泥石流事件以及泥石流等其他相关自然现象的影响。通过泥石流传播的二维数值模拟，评估了考古区域不同几何形态的影响。案例研究以Armerina广场（EN）的Villa Romana del Casale考古遗址为代表，该遗址自1997年以来一直是联合国教科文组织的遗产。提出了一种多情景分析，考虑了考古区上游泥石流的触发因素。这些结果使我们能够评估不同的滑坡事件组合如何与历史建筑相互作用。这些影响是根据沉积物到达考古区域的时间以及在遗址上沉积的碎片和残余碎片的体积来评估的。此外，亦评估现有水工防御工程的成效。结果表明，结构几何的详细建模，包括周边开口，不仅对估算别墅内部区域的风险至关重要，而且对避免高估考古遗址室外的泥石流也至关重要。

{"title":"Multi-scenario analysis of debris flow propagation on the archaeological site of Villa Romana del Casale (Sicily, Italy)","authors":"Mariano Sanfilippo , Laura M. Stancanelli , Luca Cavallaro , Enrico Foti , Rosaria E. Musumeci","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105991","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105991","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The cultural heritage of a nation represents its historical memory and its identity character, playing an important role in the economic, cultural, recreational and tourism sector of the country. However, numerous studies show that cultural sites, including historic buildings, city centres and archaeological sites, are exposed to natural risks. In particular archaeological sites are extremely vulnerable to extreme rainfall flooding and debris flow events and other associated natural phenomena, such as debris flows. The effects of different representations of the geometry of the archaeological area are evaluated through two-dimensional numerical modelling of debris flow propagation. The case study is represented by the archaeological site of Villa Romana del Casale in Piazza Armerina (EN), a UNESCO heritage site since 1997. A multi-scenario analysis is proposed to consider triggers of debris flows, upstream of the archaeological area. The results allow us to evaluate how different combinations of landslide events interact with the historical building. The impacts are evaluated in terms of arrival times of sediment flows at the archaeological area and of the volumes of debris and residual debris deposited at the site. Effectiveness of existing hydraulic defence works is also assessed. The results show that detailed modelling of the geometry of the structure, with the inclusion of the perimeter openings, is crucial not only for estimating the risk in the internal areas of the Villa but also for avoiding overestimation of debris flows outdoors of the archaeological site.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105991"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Objective versus subjective landslide risk: A case of Cache Creek Landslide in California” [Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 132 (2026) 105910] “客观与主观滑坡风险：加州Cache Creek滑坡案例”的勘误表[j]。[j] .灾害风险管理，2004,26 (5):591 - 591]

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105989

Timothy D. Stark , Kayley D. Estes , Roxane Cohen Silver , E. Alison Holman , Ben A. Leshchinsky , Farshid Vahedifard

引用次数: 0