International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第9页

Multi-scenario analysis of debris flow propagation on the archaeological site of Villa Romana del Casale (Sicily, Italy) 意大利西西里岛Villa Romana del Casale考古遗址泥石流传播的多场景分析

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105991

Mariano Sanfilippo , Laura M. Stancanelli , Luca Cavallaro , Enrico Foti , Rosaria E. Musumeci

The cultural heritage of a nation represents its historical memory and its identity character, playing an important role in the economic, cultural, recreational and tourism sector of the country. However, numerous studies show that cultural sites, including historic buildings, city centres and archaeological sites, are exposed to natural risks. In particular archaeological sites are extremely vulnerable to extreme rainfall flooding and debris flow events and other associated natural phenomena, such as debris flows. The effects of different representations of the geometry of the archaeological area are evaluated through two-dimensional numerical modelling of debris flow propagation. The case study is represented by the archaeological site of Villa Romana del Casale in Piazza Armerina (EN), a UNESCO heritage site since 1997. A multi-scenario analysis is proposed to consider triggers of debris flows, upstream of the archaeological area. The results allow us to evaluate how different combinations of landslide events interact with the historical building. The impacts are evaluated in terms of arrival times of sediment flows at the archaeological area and of the volumes of debris and residual debris deposited at the site. Effectiveness of existing hydraulic defence works is also assessed. The results show that detailed modelling of the geometry of the structure, with the inclusion of the perimeter openings, is crucial not only for estimating the risk in the internal areas of the Villa but also for avoiding overestimation of debris flows outdoors of the archaeological site.

一个民族的文化遗产代表着这个民族的历史记忆和身份特征，在这个国家的经济、文化、娱乐和旅游部门中发挥着重要作用。然而，许多研究表明，包括历史建筑、城市中心和考古遗址在内的文化遗址面临着自然风险。特别是考古遗址极易受到极端降雨、洪水和泥石流事件以及泥石流等其他相关自然现象的影响。通过泥石流传播的二维数值模拟，评估了考古区域不同几何形态的影响。案例研究以Armerina广场（EN）的Villa Romana del Casale考古遗址为代表，该遗址自1997年以来一直是联合国教科文组织的遗产。提出了一种多情景分析，考虑了考古区上游泥石流的触发因素。这些结果使我们能够评估不同的滑坡事件组合如何与历史建筑相互作用。这些影响是根据沉积物到达考古区域的时间以及在遗址上沉积的碎片和残余碎片的体积来评估的。此外，亦评估现有水工防御工程的成效。结果表明，结构几何的详细建模，包括周边开口，不仅对估算别墅内部区域的风险至关重要，而且对避免高估考古遗址室外的泥石流也至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Communicating safety: The impact of warning signs and messages on reducing risky driving in flood conditions 沟通安全：警告标志和讯息对减少在水浸情况下危险驾驶的影响

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105915

Keri K. Stephens, Mir Rabby, Matthew S. McGlone

Vehicle-related flood fatalities are common, and past research has largely focused on psychological, experiential, and sociodemographic factors that contribute to driver safety behavior. Less is known about how flood-related road signs and messages are understood and acted on. This study (n = 1027) addresses that gap by examining how three factors—past exposure to warning signs, comprehension of those signs, and exposure to flood-related risk messages—affect drivers' decisions to turn around after encountering flood warning signs (e.g., Turn Around Don't Drown). Findings show that past exposure to two different flood-safety signs commonly found in the United States encourage safer driving. People with flood experience are five times more likely to turn their car around than others without this experience. Adults 55 years and older are three times more likely to turn around than young adults, and females are also more likely turn around than males. Finally, those who reported stronger risk affect were about 25 % more likely to turn their car around. Contributions underscore the critical role of static road signage and risk messaging in shaping driver behavior. We offer several recommendations for future research and public safety and risk managers.

与车辆相关的洪水死亡是常见的，过去的研究主要集中在心理、经验和社会人口因素对驾驶员安全行为的影响上。人们对与洪水有关的道路标志和信息是如何理解和采取行动的知之甚少。本研究（n = 1027）通过考察三个因素——过去对警告标志的暴露、对这些标志的理解以及对与洪水相关的风险信息的暴露——如何影响司机在遇到洪水警告标志（例如，掉头不要淹死）后的掉头决定，从而解决了这一差距。研究结果表明，过去在美国常见的两种不同的洪水安全标志的暴露会鼓励更安全的驾驶。经历过洪水的人把车掉头的可能性是没有经历过洪水的人的五倍。55岁及以上的成年人转身的可能性是年轻人的三倍，女性也比男性更容易转身。最后，那些报告风险影响更强的人大约有25%的可能性会把车掉头。贡献强调了静态道路标志和风险信息在塑造驾驶员行为中的关键作用。我们对未来的研究和公共安全和风险管理者提出了几点建议。

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引用次数: 0

Optimizing fluvial flood mitigation strategies: A multi-objective approach for cost-effective and socially-aware infrastructure feasibility analysis 优化河流洪水缓解策略：成本效益和社会意识基础设施可行性分析的多目标方法

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106004

Linchao Luo , Chih-Shen Cheng , William Mobley , Katherine Lieberknecht , Juhyeon Kim , Fernanda Leite

Effective levee planning must balance capital cost, risk reduction, and community priorities. These objectives are rarely optimized together. This study presents a feasibility phase, simulation-in-the-loop framework that couples terrain-based flood modeling with a socially aware multi-objective optimizer. Flood risk is measured as Expected Annual Exposed Population (EAEP), obtained by integrating exposure over Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) nodes, mirroring the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA) expected-annual formulation but with people rather than dollars. Exposure per scenario is computed by overlaying binary inundation masks with a population surface at the tract level. Distributional fairness is encoded through a Group Benefit Share (GBS) constraint that requires high-SVI tracts to receive at least a baseline share of annualized benefits. Capital cost is represented by a height-dependent unit-cost model suitable for screening. This study addresses the two-objective problem, minimize cost and expected annual exposure subject to the GBS constraint, using Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) and leveraging Pareto front for feasibility phase decision making. Implemented with terrain-based flood modeling, GeoFlood, for rapid scenario evaluation, the framework is demonstrated in Southeast Texas. The results reveal clear trade-offs among cost, risk, and social benefits and identify non-dominated levee height configurations that satisfy the benefit-share floor. The contributions are a scalable decision support method that operationalizes expected annual population-based risk, embeds enforceable benefit-sharing guarantees, and uses lightweight simulation to explore large design spaces before higher fidelity design stages.

有效的堤坝规划必须平衡资本成本、降低风险和社区优先事项。这些目标很少同时优化。本研究提出了一种可行性阶段的环内仿真框架，该框架将基于地形的洪水建模与社会感知的多目标优化器相结合。洪水风险以预期的年度暴露人口（EAEP）来衡量，通过整合年度超过概率（AEP）节点的暴露得到，反映了水文工程中心的减少洪水损失分析（HEC-FDA）的预期年度公式，但使用的是人而不是美元。每个情景的暴露量是通过将二元淹没掩模与种群表面叠加在水道水平来计算的。分配公平是通过群体利益份额（GBS）约束进行编码的，该约束要求高svi的地区至少获得年化福利的基线份额。资本成本由适合筛选的高度相关单位成本模型表示。本研究采用非支配排序遗传算法II （NSGA-II）并利用Pareto前沿进行可行性阶段决策，解决了GBS约束下成本和预期年曝光最小化的双目标问题。该框架通过基于地形的洪水建模geofflood实现，用于快速场景评估，并在德克萨斯州东南部进行了演示。结果揭示了成本、风险和社会效益之间的明确权衡，并确定了满足利益共享下限的非主导堤防高度配置。其贡献是一种可扩展的决策支持方法，该方法可操作预期的年度基于人口的风险，嵌入可执行的利益共享保证，并使用轻量级模拟在更高保真度的设计阶段之前探索大型设计空间。

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引用次数: 0

Enhancing the resilience of wind energy infrastructure in Iowa: Flood risk assessment and site suitability analysis for critical infrastructure protection 加强爱荷华州风能基础设施的恢复能力：关键基础设施保护的洪水风险评估和场地适宜性分析

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106003

Ege Duran , Ibrahim Demir

As climate change increases the frequency and severity of hydrological hazards, understanding and reducing disaster risk to renewable energy infrastructure has become critical. Iowa, a national leader in wind energy generation, faces enhanced vulnerability due to the intersection of extensive wind turbine deployment and increasing flood risk. This study provides a comprehensive geospatial and statistical evaluation of flood exposure and site suitability for future installation of wind turbines across Iowa, using zonal statistics within buffer areas to evaluate spatial variation in elevation, soil drainage, flood depth, and mean wind profile. Correlation analysis reveals that turbine vulnerability is strongly linked to topographic variability (r ≈ 0.98), and soil characteristics (r ≈ 0.79), underscoring terrain as a key control on localized flood severity. Statewide results show that turbine exposure increases with spatial extent, from about 4 % near turbine bases to over 60 % at broader surroundings, underscoring the sensitivity of flood risk to buffer expansion and indicating that current siting practices may not sufficiently mitigate flood hazards. The research proposes targeted, data-driven recommendations for enhancing the resilience and continuity of wind generation as a vital component of the state's energy infrastructure. These insights support policymakers, engineers, and stakeholders in devising proactive flood mitigation strategies, reinforcing the reliability and security of Iowa's critical energy sector against evolving climate threats.

随着气候变化增加水文灾害的频率和严重程度，了解和减少可再生能源基础设施的灾害风险变得至关重要。爱荷华州在风力发电方面处于全国领先地位，由于风力涡轮机的广泛部署和洪水风险的增加，爱荷华州面临着更大的脆弱性。本研究对爱荷华州的洪水暴露和未来安装风力涡轮机的地点适宜性进行了全面的地理空间和统计评估，使用缓冲区内的分区统计来评估高程、土壤排水、洪水深度和平均风廓线的空间变化。相关分析表明，水轮机脆弱性与地形变异性（r≈0.98）和土壤特征（r≈0.79）密切相关，强调地形是局部洪水严重程度的关键控制因素。全州范围内的结果表明，涡轮机暴露度随着空间范围的扩大而增加，从涡轮机基地附近的约4%增加到更广泛环境的60%以上，这强调了洪水风险对缓冲区扩展的敏感性，并表明目前的选址做法可能不足以减轻洪水危害。该研究提出了有针对性的、数据驱动的建议，以提高风力发电的弹性和连续性，风力发电是该州能源基础设施的重要组成部分。这些见解支持政策制定者、工程师和利益相关者制定积极的洪水缓解战略，加强爱荷华州关键能源部门应对不断变化的气候威胁的可靠性和安全性。

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引用次数: 0

Who pays for preparedness? Valuing disaster app features through a factorial survey experiment in flood-prone communities 谁来支付准备费用？通过在洪水易发社区进行因子调查实验来评估灾害应用程序的功能

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105933

Katsuya Tanaka , Tadashi Kito , Kohji Tanaka

This study evaluates public preferences for next-generation disaster preparedness apps using a factorial survey experiment in flood-prone Japanese communities. The analysis first reveals a fundamental heterogeneity in public receptiveness, identifying two distinct segments: a small "receptive" minority (approx. 20 %) willing to consider adoption, and a large "unreceptive" majority (approx. 80 %) that rejects the app regardless of its features or price. Consequently, focusing on the receptive segment, the study estimates the economic value of specific app features. Results show that functions for immediate personal safety and family security—such as Rescue Request and Family Status Confirmation—are most highly prized. These findings lead to the conclusion that a freemium model is the most viable strategy for social implementation, offering a free version with basic features to the unreceptive majority while providing a premium, feature-rich version to the receptive minority at a sustainable price point. This dual approach can maximize public reach while ensuring financial viability.

本研究通过在日本易发洪水社区进行因子调查实验，评估公众对下一代备灾应用程序的偏好。分析首先揭示了公众接受程度的基本异质性，确定了两个不同的部分：一个小的“接受”少数（约为2000人）。20%)愿意考虑收养，而大部分“不接受”的人（大约20%）不愿意收养。80%)，不管应用的功能或价格如何，他们都会拒绝。因此，该研究将重点放在接受用户群体上，评估特定应用功能的经济价值。结果表明，即时的个人安全和家庭安全功能，如救援请求和家庭状态确认，是最受重视的。这些发现让我们得出结论，免费增值模式是最可行的社交执行策略，即向不接受的多数用户提供带有基本功能的免费版本，同时向接受的少数用户提供具有可持续价格的付费、功能丰富的版本。这种双重方法可以最大限度地扩大公众影响力，同时确保财务可行性。

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引用次数: 0

Clear or compliant? The tension between regulatory requirements and public comprehension in boil water advisories 清晰还是顺从？监管要求和公众对煮沸水的理解之间的紧张关系

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105982

Kyudong Kim , Euijin Yang , Keri K. Stephens , Mir Rabby , Roselia Mendez Murillo , Matthew S. McGlone , Sergio Castellanos , Kasey M. Faust

Risk communications should provide clear messages to the public so people can take appropriate actions to protect their health and safety. Boil Water Advisories (BWAs), for instance, help safeguard communities from water quality issues. This study evaluates BWA effectiveness by analyzing 85 advisories from four Texas metropolitan areas, collected from press releases and social media platforms (e.g., Facebook). The evaluation focused on two main aspects: content compliance, to assess if the content meets state-wide requirements; and readability, to determine if the general public can easily understand the information. The results show that while press releases generally include essential content by adhering to the Texas Commission for Environmental Quality (TCEQ) guidelines, social media posts often lack essential information, such as mandatory language for the severity of the water contamination, action items, and contact details for real-time updates. Water utilities face challenges balancing regulatory compliance with effective public guidance. They can benefit from adapting communications across different platforms while maintaining appropriate reading levels for diverse audiences. Specifically, while press releases can meet regulatory standards with comprehensive content, their higher reading difficulty often makes them inaccessible to many audiences. Social media requires brief communication that cannot easily be compliant, but those messages are easier to understand. This study offers insights to help utilities enhance multi-channel BWA communication strategies and suggests regulatory agencies develop more realistic guidelines that acknowledge communication platform constraints while ensuring effective public response during water-related emergencies.

风险沟通应向公众提供明确的信息，使人们能够采取适当的行动来保护自己的健康和安全。例如，沸水警报（BWAs）有助于保护社区免受水质问题的影响。本研究通过分析来自德克萨斯州四个大都市地区的85份咨询报告来评估BWA的有效性，这些报告收集自新闻稿和社交媒体平台（如Facebook）。评估主要集中在两个方面：内容合规性，评估内容是否符合全州要求；而可读性，则决定一般公众是否能容易地理解信息。结果表明，虽然新闻稿通常包括遵守德克萨斯州环境质量委员会（TCEQ）指导方针的基本内容，但社交媒体帖子往往缺乏基本信息，例如对水污染严重程度的强制性语言、行动项目和实时更新的联系方式。水务公司面临平衡法规遵从与有效公众指导的挑战。他们可以从适应不同平台的通信中受益，同时为不同的受众保持适当的阅读水平。具体来说，虽然新闻稿内容全面，符合监管标准，但其较高的阅读难度往往使许多受众无法阅读。社交媒体要求简短的交流，不容易被顺从，但这些信息更容易理解。本研究为公用事业公司加强多渠道BWA通信策略提供了见解，并建议监管机构制定更现实的指导方针，以承认通信平台的限制，同时确保公众在与水有关的紧急情况下有效响应。

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引用次数: 0

The effect of evacuation decisions on flash flood preparedness in Fujairah, UAE: When the waters rise are we ready in desert country? 撤离决定对阿联酋富查伊拉山洪防备的影响：当水位上涨时，我们在沙漠国家准备好了吗？

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106013

Dr Praveen Maghelal , Dr Sudha Arlikatti , Dr Michael Lindell , Dr Khawla Saeed Al Hattawi , Mr Bader Abdulaziz Omar Al Jaberi , Ms Ghala Mohammed Mansour

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), known for its dry desert climate, receives only 140–200 mm (5.5–8.0 in) of rainfall per year. Over the past decade there has been a notable increase in the intensity of rain and occurrences of flash flooding in the Emirates of Dubai, Sharjah, Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah. Although these events have caused fatalities and large-scale economic losses, there has been very little research about the increasing vulnerabilities of the population to flash flooding or about community preparedness and response to this hazard. The present study aims to fill this gap by examining households' decisions to evacuate in response to flooding and their intentions to prepare for future floods. A questionnaire based on the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) was administered to 223 residents in the Emirate of Fujairah. The resulting data analysis identified several significant predictors of flash flood evacuation. These include risk perceptions, both positive and negative affective responses, and receipt of warnings from government authorities and news media platforms. Other significant predictors were the number of elderly people in the household, the respondent's age, and home ownership. There were significant differences among flood preparedness actions that households intend to take, as well as differences between evacuees and non-evacuees in their expectations of adopting permanent relocation and structural mitigation. The insights derived from this study can strengthen emergency management agencies' support for household preparedness and response to future flash floods.

阿拉伯联合酋长国（UAE）以其干燥的沙漠气候而闻名，每年的降雨量只有140-200毫米（5.5-8.0英寸）。在过去十年中，迪拜、沙迦、哈伊马角和富查伊拉等酋长国的降雨强度和山洪暴发次数显著增加。虽然这些事件造成了死亡和大规模的经济损失，但很少有关于人口对山洪暴发日益脆弱的研究，也很少有关于社区对这种危险的准备和反应的研究。本研究旨在通过考察家庭在应对洪水时的撤离决定以及他们为未来洪水做准备的意图来填补这一空白。根据保护行动决策模型（PADM）对富查伊拉酋长国的223名居民进行了问卷调查。由此产生的数据分析确定了几个重要的山洪疏散预测因素。这些包括风险认知，积极和消极的情感反应，以及收到政府当局和新闻媒体平台的警告。其他重要的预测因素是家庭中老年人的数量，受访者的年龄和房屋所有权。家庭准备采取的防洪行动之间存在显著差异，撤离者和非撤离者对采取永久性搬迁和结构性缓解措施的期望之间也存在显著差异。从本研究中获得的见解可以加强应急管理机构对家庭准备和应对未来山洪暴发的支持。

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引用次数: 0

The state of local governance and public finance in disaster risk research: A structural topic modelling analysis 灾害风险研究中的地方治理与公共财政状况：结构主题模型分析

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105985

Lawrence Velasco, Eduardo Araral Jr.

Effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) policy requires combining technical risk assessment with fiscal capacity and institutional coordination. DRR is a practical field that aims to generate actionable knowledge to mitigate the harmful effects of natural hazards. What is emphasized in indexed scholarship shapes which mechanisms are normalized, taught, and prioritized. If governance and public finance mechanisms are essential for implementation yet underemphasized, this may affect their integration into research and practice. However, their representation in indexed DRR scholarship has not been systematically measured. To this end, we apply Structural Topic Modeling to 4,568 Web of Science abstracts (1990–2024) to identify 15 latent topics and analyze how their expected proportions vary with publication year, citation count, and disciplinary domain. Three patterns emerge. First, governance and public finance topics account for approximately 20.3 % of the total abstract corpus, whereas urban planning and risk assessment topics account for 65.4 %. Second, documents published in recent years tend to show lower expected proportions of governance and finance topics. Third, higher-citation documents also tend to have lower expected proportions of these topics. The topic Local Government Finance highlights this tension: it shows high expected proportions in Economics and Business and Urban Studies and Infrastructure outlets, yet its emphasis declines over time and is negatively associated with citations. These estimates describe scholarly focus, not actual governance results. The findings suggest that DRR research would benefit from greater emphasis on governance and public finance.

有效的减少灾害风险政策需要将技术风险评估与财政能力和机构协调结合起来。减灾是一个实用领域，旨在产生可操作的知识，以减轻自然灾害的有害影响。索引奖学金所强调的内容决定了哪些机制是规范化的、教授的和优先考虑的。如果治理和公共财政机制对实施至关重要，但没有得到充分重视，这可能会影响它们融入研究和实践。然而，他们在索引DRR奖学金中的代表性尚未得到系统的衡量。为此，我们对4,568篇Web of Science摘要（1990-2024）应用结构主题建模，确定了15个潜在主题，并分析了它们的预期比例如何随出版年份、被引用次数和学科领域而变化。出现了三种模式。首先，治理和公共财政主题约占总抽象语料库的20.3%，而城市规划和风险评估主题占65.4%。其次，近年来发布的文件往往显示治理和财务主题的预期比例较低。第三，高被引文献中这些主题的预期比例也往往较低。地方政府财政这一主题突出了这种紧张关系：它在经济学和商业、城市研究和基础设施领域显示出很高的预期比例，但其重要性随着时间的推移而下降，并与引用负相关。这些估计描述的是学术焦点，而不是实际的治理结果。研究结果表明，加强对治理和公共财政的重视将有利于DRR研究。

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引用次数: 0

Earth observation informed modelling of flash floods 对地观测为山洪暴发的模拟提供了信息

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105977

C. Scott Watson , Maggie Creed , Januka Gyawali , Sameer Shadeed , Jamal Dabbeek , Divya L. Subedi , Rojina Haiju

More frequent extreme rainfall events in a changing climate increase the risk of flash flooding. However, the flood hazard modelling required to reduce disaster risk in urban environments is often limited by the availability of data required for model calibration and validation. Here, we use a historical flood event captured by 5 m resolution satellite imagery to inform future flood hazard assessments in the West Bank, Palestine. Flooding in January 2013 affected over 12,500 people and large areas of agricultural land. Vegetation loss and damage were captured using a normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), which was used as a reference flood extent. The physics-based HEC-RAS flood model best reproduced this NDVI-derived inundation extent (F1 score = 0.76), although the FastFlood model was able to produce a similar inundation pattern (F1 score = 0.74) over 300 times faster. Simulated flood depths from both models were similar. Climate analysis revealed that the January 2013 rainfall corresponded to a historical return period of between 1 in 5 and 1 in 10 years. In comparison, a 1 in 100-year rainfall event (RX1day (maximum 1-day precipitation) of 148 mm) based on historical data (1985–2014) could increase by almost 40 % (to 205 mm) in the mid-future (2041–2060), which could cause 23 % (4 km²) greater inundation compared to the 2013 event. Although the patterns of future precipitation in the region are uncertain, our flood hazard maps can support urban planning and infrastructure development to manage storm water runoff.

在不断变化的气候中，更频繁的极端降雨事件增加了山洪暴发的风险。然而，减少城市环境灾害风险所需的洪水灾害建模往往受到模型校准和验证所需数据的可用性的限制。在这里，我们使用5米分辨率卫星图像捕获的历史洪水事件，为巴勒斯坦西岸未来的洪水灾害评估提供信息。2013年1月的洪水影响了12500多人和大片农田。植被损失和破坏采用归一化植被指数（NDVI）作为参考洪水范围。基于物理的HEC-RAS洪水模型最好地再现了ndvi衍生的淹没范围（F1得分= 0.76），尽管FastFlood模型能够产生类似的淹没模式（F1得分= 0.74）快300多倍。两个模型模拟的洪水深度相似。气候分析显示，2013年1月的降雨符合5年1次至10年1次的历史重现期。相比之下，基于历史数据（1985-2014）的百年一遇的降雨事件（RX1day（最大1天降水）为148毫米）在未来中期（2041-2060）可能增加近40%（达到205毫米），这可能导致比2013年事件增加23%（4平方公里）的淹没。尽管该地区未来降水的模式尚不确定，但我们的洪水灾害图可以为城市规划和基础设施建设提供支持，以管理暴雨径流。

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引用次数: 0

Reducing elderly vulnerability to climate change risks using an integrated infrastructure recovery planning 利用综合基础设施恢复规划减少老年人对气候变化风险的脆弱性

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105963

Hamed Hafeznia , Pradeep Alva , Taihan Chen , Bui Do Phuong Tung , Yuan Chao , Rudi Stouffs , Bozidar Stojadinovic

As urban areas face increasing climate risks, enhancing urban resilience has become a crucial priority, especially in densely populated and rapidly ageing cities such as Singapore. This study proposes an integrated recovery planning workflow to reduce elderly vulnerability under compound extreme heat and flash flooding events intensified by climate change. This workflow considers three important criteria: outdoor thermal comfort, assessed using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI); the spatial vulnerability of the elderly population; and electricity disruption risk related to flood-exposed urban power infrastructure. UTCI was computed with the Urban Tethys-Chloris (UT&C) model, a computationally efficient urban ecohydrological model validated for tropical urban environments. Elderly vulnerability was assessed by combining demographic data, the spatial distribution of residents, and urban heat patterns, highlighting the connection between social vulnerability and heat exposure. Flood-prone power nodes were identified using high-resolution terrain data and national flood reports to enable modelling of compound urban heat and flooding hazards. The workflow was applied to Queenstown, Singapore, where multiple recovery strategies were simulated, and the resulting spatio-temporal patterns of elderly exposure and recovery priorities were analysed. The results show how prioritising the restoration of flood-affected power nodes serving heat-exposed elderly populations can substantially reduce heat-related vulnerability during compound events. Explicitly linking biophysical, socio-demographic, and infrastructure criteria within a single workflow provides a practical decision-support tool for climate-resilient recovery planning in ageing, high-density cities.

随着城市地区面临越来越大的气候风险，增强城市抵御能力已成为一项至关重要的优先事项，尤其是在新加坡等人口密集、老龄化迅速的城市。本研究提出了一个综合的恢复规划工作流程，以减少老年人在气候变化加剧的复合极端高温和山洪灾害下的脆弱性。该工作流程考虑了三个重要标准：室外热舒适，使用通用热气候指数（UTCI）进行评估；老年人口的空间脆弱性；以及与洪水暴露的城市电力基础设施有关的电力中断风险。UTCI是用Urban Tethys-Chloris （UT&；C）模型计算的，这是一种计算效率很高的城市生态水文模型，适用于热带城市环境。结合人口统计数据、居民空间分布和城市热模式对老年人脆弱性进行了评估，强调了社会脆弱性与热暴露之间的联系。利用高分辨率地形数据和国家洪水报告确定了易发生洪水的电力节点，从而建立了城市高温和洪水复合灾害的模型。该工作流程应用于新加坡皇后镇，模拟了多种恢复策略，并分析了老年人暴露的时空模式和恢复优先级。结果表明，优先恢复受洪水影响的电力节点，为高温暴露的老年人服务，可以大大降低复合事件期间的热相关脆弱性。将生物物理、社会人口统计学和基础设施标准明确地联系在一个工作流程中，为老龄化、高密度城市的气候适应性恢复规划提供了实用的决策支持工具。

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