Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104948
Song Shi, Mustapha Bangura, Sumita Ghosh
Examining cognitive limits in flood risk perception for residential property values, we analyse the Richmond housing market in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Using micro-level home sales data, our study reveals that the market has integrated long-term flood risk into property values. A notable 10.8 % price discount is observed for properties within 1–100 Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood zone, 4.4 % for those in an AEP 500 zone, with no discounts for AEP 1000 flood zone properties. Comparisons of 2019 and 2023 flood maps and property's Time-on-Market (TOM) affirm that people's cognitive limits constrain to the AEP 500 level.
{"title":"Cognitive limits of perceived flood risk on residential property values","authors":"Song Shi, Mustapha Bangura, Sumita Ghosh","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104948","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104948","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Examining cognitive limits in flood risk perception for residential property values, we analyse the Richmond housing market in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Using micro-level home sales data, our study reveals that the market has integrated long-term flood risk into property values. A notable 10.8 % price discount is observed for properties within 1–100 Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood zone, 4.4 % for those in an AEP 500 zone, with no discounts for AEP 1000 flood zone properties. Comparisons of 2019 and 2023 flood maps and property's Time-on-Market (TOM) affirm that people's cognitive limits constrain to the AEP 500 level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104948"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105000
M.V. Gargiulo, G. Woo, R. Russo, P. Capuano
Italy is exposed to significant seismic and volcanic hazards, particularly in the Campania region, home to the Phlegraean Fields volcanic crater near Naples. Unlike Vesuvius and Stromboli, the Phlegraean Fields threat is not readily visible, and public awareness of volcanic danger and the civic emergency plan is correspondingly quite limited. Recent increased levels of regional seismic activity have concentrated attention on enhancing public volcano risk awareness, especially among younger generations.
Recognizing the influential role of the younger demographic in societal scientific awareness, effective language and engagement strategies become paramount. In this context, Serious Games, which balance serious and playful elements, emerge as an innovative science communication tool actively involving participants and enhancing their learning experience.
Integral to risk analysis is the use of downward counterfactual analysis, a cognitive psychology concept that prompts a deliberate examination of how events might have taken a more adverse turn. This approach contributes to enhanced disaster preparedness, particularly for extreme natural risks such as volcanic eruptions.
An interactive Victorian parlor game was designed for the 2023 edition of the Science Fair “Futuro Remoto” in Bagnoli, in the Phlegraean Fields. This game aims to elevate risk awareness, offering participants an instructive and engaging experience focused on counterfactual thinking, problem-solving, and leadership skills development.
The initiative places participants at the core of the learning process, fostering not only the acquisition of scientific knowledge but also individual risk intelligence. An evaluation protocol has been developed to assess the impact of the experience on risk perception, with outcomes to be presented after the 2023 edition of “Futuro Remoto,” where nearly 200 participants engaged in the game.
{"title":"A role game to learn about risk perception via downward counterfactual thinking","authors":"M.V. Gargiulo, G. Woo, R. Russo, P. Capuano","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105000","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105000","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Italy is exposed to significant seismic and volcanic hazards, particularly in the Campania region, home to the Phlegraean Fields volcanic crater near Naples. Unlike Vesuvius and Stromboli, the Phlegraean Fields threat is not readily visible, and public awareness of volcanic danger and the civic emergency plan is correspondingly quite limited. Recent increased levels of regional seismic activity have concentrated attention on enhancing public volcano risk awareness, especially among younger generations.</div><div>Recognizing the influential role of the younger demographic in societal scientific awareness, effective language and engagement strategies become paramount. In this context, Serious Games, which balance serious and playful elements, emerge as an innovative science communication tool actively involving participants and enhancing their learning experience.</div><div>Integral to risk analysis is the use of downward counterfactual analysis, a cognitive psychology concept that prompts a deliberate examination of how events might have taken a more adverse turn. This approach contributes to enhanced disaster preparedness, particularly for extreme natural risks such as volcanic eruptions.</div><div>An interactive Victorian parlor game was designed for the 2023 edition of the Science Fair “Futuro Remoto” in Bagnoli, in the Phlegraean Fields. This game aims to elevate risk awareness, offering participants an instructive and engaging experience focused on counterfactual thinking, problem-solving, and leadership skills development.</div><div>The initiative places participants at the core of the learning process, fostering not only the acquisition of scientific knowledge but also individual risk intelligence. An evaluation protocol has been developed to assess the impact of the experience on risk perception, with outcomes to be presented after the 2023 edition of “Futuro Remoto,” where nearly 200 participants engaged in the game.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 105000"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104998
Da Kuang , Rui Xu , Wei Zhou
The concept of flood resilience has gained increasing attention due to climate change. Although it is argued that learning is a crucial mechanism for improving flood resilience, few empirical studies have explored how lessons learned from past flood experiences influence flood resilience. It is also unknown whether there are any barriers preventing people from implementing the lessons learned and eroding the development of flood resilience. To address these gaps, this paper conducts a case study of Jiangnan village, a frequently flooded rural village in southern China. Jiangnan village was seriously flooded in 2022; however, it is surprising that only a few people living in the village experienced flood losses. Forty-four in-depth interviews with local villagers were conducted between 2022 and 2023, revealing that extensive local knowledge learned from past flood experiences helped reduce flood losses during the 2022 flood. We further concluded that the lessons learned significantly contributed to flood resilience by improving villager agility during flooding and promoting a holistic approach to flood risk reduction. Moreover, several barriers preventing people from implementing the lessons learned were identified, including a lack of accurate and timely flood risk communication, personal barriers, and changes in flood regimes. This study provides insights for flood risk management stakeholders that help them understand the value and limitations of local knowledge. We also advocate for flood management to reduce reliance on flood control and integrate a learning-based approach, enabling people to experiment with alternative practices during floods and then learn from their subsequent feedback.
{"title":"How do lessons learned from past flood experiences influence household-level flood resilience: A case study of Jiangnan village in Southern China","authors":"Da Kuang , Rui Xu , Wei Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104998","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104998","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The concept of flood resilience has gained increasing attention due to climate change. Although it is argued that learning is a crucial mechanism for improving flood resilience, few empirical studies have explored how lessons learned from past flood experiences influence flood resilience. It is also unknown whether there are any barriers preventing people from implementing the lessons learned and eroding the development of flood resilience. To address these gaps, this paper conducts a case study of Jiangnan village, a frequently flooded rural village in southern China. Jiangnan village was seriously flooded in 2022; however, it is surprising that only a few people living in the village experienced flood losses. Forty-four in-depth interviews with local villagers were conducted between 2022 and 2023, revealing that extensive local knowledge learned from past flood experiences helped reduce flood losses during the 2022 flood. We further concluded that the lessons learned significantly contributed to flood resilience by improving villager agility during flooding and promoting a holistic approach to flood risk reduction. Moreover, several barriers preventing people from implementing the lessons learned were identified, including a lack of accurate and timely flood risk communication, personal barriers, and changes in flood regimes. This study provides insights for flood risk management stakeholders that help them understand the value and limitations of local knowledge. We also advocate for flood management to reduce reliance on flood control and integrate a learning-based approach, enabling people to experiment with alternative practices during floods and then learn from their subsequent feedback.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104998"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104991
Neegar Sultana , Shukui Tan , Md. Farhad Hossen
Landslide risk assessment (LRA) is crucial to develop sustainable risk reduction and response measures. Although Southeast Bangladesh is prone to landslides, there is insufficient comprehensive investigation that incorporates susceptibility and vulnerability assessments with LRA. This study first calculated the Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) using the frequency ratio (FR), verified it using the ROC-AUC curve, and then measured the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Finally, the research integrated the LSI and SoVI map by normalizing and weighting to compute a Landslide Risk Index (LRI) map. The region's LSI reveals 10.19 % very high, 28.10 % moderate, and 13.41 % very low landslide susceptibility. According to the FR model, slope, elevation NDVI, and rainfall predispose to landslides. However, the SoVI revealed 39.3 % of Upazilas experienced medium landslide social vulnerability, which is hazard independent. The LRI statistics classify landslide risk as very high (23 %), high (12 %), moderate (28 %), low (20 %), or very low (17 %) for a total area of 19163.53 km2. A district-wise risk analysis ranks landslide risk as Chattogram > Cox's Bazar > Rangamati > Khagrachhari > Bandarban due to short-term or prolonged rainfall, natural drainage changes, unplanned development, deforestation, hydroelectric plant effects, and population growth. The landslide risk is highest in Teknaf, Ukhia, and Ramu Upazilas and lowest in Thanchi, Rowangchhari, Juraichhari, and Langadu. LSI performed satisfactorily with an AUC-based prediction rate of 81.8 % and success rate curve of 87.0 %. Finally, decision-makers can implement this macro-scale regional landslide risk analysis for southeast hilly Bangladesh for developing sustainable risk reduction schemes.
{"title":"Landslide risk assessment by integrating hazards and vulnerability indices in Southeast Bangladesh","authors":"Neegar Sultana , Shukui Tan , Md. Farhad Hossen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104991","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104991","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Landslide risk assessment (LRA) is crucial to develop sustainable risk reduction and response measures. Although Southeast Bangladesh is prone to landslides, there is insufficient comprehensive investigation that incorporates susceptibility and vulnerability assessments with LRA. This study first calculated the Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) using the frequency ratio (FR), verified it using the ROC-AUC curve, and then measured the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Finally, the research integrated the LSI and SoVI map by normalizing and weighting to compute a Landslide Risk Index (LRI) map. The region's LSI reveals 10.19 % very high, 28.10 % moderate, and 13.41 % very low landslide susceptibility. According to the FR model, slope, elevation NDVI, and rainfall predispose to landslides. However, the SoVI revealed 39.3 % of Upazilas experienced medium landslide social vulnerability, which is hazard independent. The LRI statistics classify landslide risk as very high (23 %), high (12 %), moderate (28 %), low (20 %), or very low (17 %) for a total area of 19163.53 km<sup>2</sup>. A district-wise risk analysis ranks landslide risk as Chattogram > Cox's Bazar > Rangamati > Khagrachhari > Bandarban due to short-term or prolonged rainfall, natural drainage changes, unplanned development, deforestation, hydroelectric plant effects, and population growth. The landslide risk is highest in Teknaf, Ukhia, and Ramu Upazilas and lowest in Thanchi, Rowangchhari, Juraichhari, and Langadu. LSI performed satisfactorily with an AUC-based prediction rate of 81.8 % and success rate curve of 87.0 %. Finally, decision-makers can implement this macro-scale regional landslide risk analysis for southeast hilly Bangladesh for developing sustainable risk reduction schemes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104991"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104978
Paula Villagra , Oneska Peña y Lillo , Marie Geraldine Herrmann-Lunecke , Rafael Aranguiz , Andrea Baez
The speculation of coastal land for tourism and housing has led to the rapid urbanization of Chilean coastal settlements and to the reduction of critical ecosystems that contribute to resilience against tsunami hazards. This study analyzes the mitigative and adaptive capacities of these settlements based on their natural resources, focusing on differences across settlements with varying degrees of urbanization. Mitigative capacity refers to the ability to minimize the impact of a tsunami through bioshields like coastal forests, wetlands, and dunes in the Coastal Plane. Adaptive capacity encompasses longer-term resources that support recovery, such as food, water, and refuge provided by forests, prairies and agricultural land among others in the Coastal Range. Using spatial and multivariate analyses, 53 coastal settlements were evaluated, leading to three settlement clusters with distinct degree of urbanization, type of settlement (village or city), and differences in their latitudinal distribution and in the number of prairies and agricultural land in the Coastal Range. Results show no significant differences between settlement clusters and mitigative capacity. On the other hand, the study finds that cities' type of settlements, with greater prairie and agricultural land in the Coastal Range, particularly in central and northern Chile, show a higher capacity for adaptation, based on transportation and refuge available after the tsunami. This research highlights the crucial role of natural resources in both immediate disaster mitigation and long-term adaptation. Understanding the differences in resource availability among settlements can inform urban planning strategies to develop tsunami-resilient communities along Chile's southern Pacific coast.
{"title":"A nature-based exploration of resilience capacity in coastal settlements exposed to tsunamis along the southern Pacific coast","authors":"Paula Villagra , Oneska Peña y Lillo , Marie Geraldine Herrmann-Lunecke , Rafael Aranguiz , Andrea Baez","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104978","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104978","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The speculation of coastal land for tourism and housing has led to the rapid urbanization of Chilean coastal settlements and to the reduction of critical ecosystems that contribute to resilience against tsunami hazards. This study analyzes the mitigative and adaptive capacities of these settlements based on their natural resources, focusing on differences across settlements with varying degrees of urbanization. Mitigative capacity refers to the ability to minimize the impact of a tsunami through bioshields like coastal forests, wetlands, and dunes in the Coastal Plane. Adaptive capacity encompasses longer-term resources that support recovery, such as food, water, and refuge provided by forests, prairies and agricultural land among others in the Coastal Range. Using spatial and multivariate analyses, 53 coastal settlements were evaluated, leading to three settlement clusters with distinct degree of urbanization, type of settlement (village or city), and differences in their latitudinal distribution and in the number of prairies and agricultural land in the Coastal Range. Results show no significant differences between settlement clusters and mitigative capacity. On the other hand, the study finds that cities' type of settlements, with greater prairie and agricultural land in the Coastal Range, particularly in central and northern Chile, show a higher capacity for adaptation, based on transportation and refuge available after the tsunami. This research highlights the crucial role of natural resources in both immediate disaster mitigation and long-term adaptation. Understanding the differences in resource availability among settlements can inform urban planning strategies to develop tsunami-resilient communities along Chile's southern Pacific coast.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104978"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104951
Timothy Fraser , Aayushi Mishra , Osama Awadalla , Jennifer Shea , Daniel Homsey , Daniel P. Aldrich
Cities around the world face both acute and ongoing stressors from climate change and other shocks. The degree to which linguistic, ethnic, and citizenship characteristics drive vulnerability, social connectedness, and mental health outcomes during such shocks remains an open question. Analyzing a new survey of nearly 240 residents of Cloverdale using regression models and social network analysis, we find that non White residents faced poorer outcomes across a variety of fields. Controlling for age, income, job status, and other demographic factors we find that Hispanic identities correlate with worse vulnerability and resilience indicators including worse mental health and feelings of support. These findings come with a variety of policy recommendations for cities, NGOs, and decision makers.
{"title":"A city of two tales: A quantitative analysis of vulnerability, connectedness, and resilience in Cloverdale, CA","authors":"Timothy Fraser , Aayushi Mishra , Osama Awadalla , Jennifer Shea , Daniel Homsey , Daniel P. Aldrich","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104951","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104951","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cities around the world face both acute and ongoing stressors from climate change and other shocks. The degree to which linguistic, ethnic, and citizenship characteristics drive vulnerability, social connectedness, and mental health outcomes during such shocks remains an open question. Analyzing a new survey of nearly 240 residents of Cloverdale using regression models and social network analysis, we find that non White residents faced poorer outcomes across a variety of fields. Controlling for age, income, job status, and other demographic factors we find that Hispanic identities correlate with worse vulnerability and resilience indicators including worse mental health and feelings of support. These findings come with a variety of policy recommendations for cities, NGOs, and decision makers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104951"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104997
Alana M. Weir , Thomas M. Wilson , Mark S. Bebbington , Craig Campbell-Smart , James H. Williams , Roger Fairclough
Infrastructure networks are vital for the communities and industries that rely on their continued operation. Disasters stress these complex networks and can provoke systemic disruptions that extend far beyond the spatial footprint of hazards. An enduring challenge for assessing infrastructure networks within disaster impact assessment frameworks has been to adequately quantify the high spatial interdependence of these networks, and to consider risk management interventions through time. This is of particular importance for volcanic eruptions, which can produce multiple hazards over highly variable spatiotemporal extents. In this study, we present a methodology for the quantification of systemic vulnerability of infrastructure networks, which can be coupled with physical vulnerability models for the purpose of impact assessment. The two-part methodology first quantifies the haard-agnostic criticality of infrastructural components, inclusive of interdependencies, and then incorporates representative hazard spatial footprints to derive the systemic vulnerability. We demonstrate this methodology using the case study of volcanic eruptions from Taranaki Mounga volcano, Aotearoa New Zealand, where there are many industrial sites of national importance, and a high likelihood of a complex multi-hazard volcanic eruption. We find a considerable increase in the systemic vulnerability of electricity and natural gas network components after incorporating infrastructure interdependencies, and a further increase in the systemic vulnerability of these critical components when cross-referenced with potential volcanic hazard spatial extent. The methodology of this study can be applied to other areas of interest in both its hazard-agnostic or hazard-dependent form, and the systemic vulnerability quantification should be incorporated into impact assessment frameworks.
{"title":"Quantifying systemic vulnerability of interdependent critical infrastructure networks: A case study for volcanic hazards","authors":"Alana M. Weir , Thomas M. Wilson , Mark S. Bebbington , Craig Campbell-Smart , James H. Williams , Roger Fairclough","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104997","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104997","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Infrastructure networks are vital for the communities and industries that rely on their continued operation. Disasters stress these complex networks and can provoke systemic disruptions that extend far beyond the spatial footprint of hazards. An enduring challenge for assessing infrastructure networks within disaster impact assessment frameworks has been to adequately quantify the high spatial interdependence of these networks, and to consider risk management interventions through time. This is of particular importance for volcanic eruptions, which can produce multiple hazards over highly variable spatiotemporal extents. In this study, we present a methodology for the quantification of systemic vulnerability of infrastructure networks, which can be coupled with physical vulnerability models for the purpose of impact assessment. The two-part methodology first quantifies the haard-agnostic criticality of infrastructural components, inclusive of interdependencies, and then incorporates representative hazard spatial footprints to derive the systemic vulnerability. We demonstrate this methodology using the case study of volcanic eruptions from Taranaki Mounga volcano, Aotearoa New Zealand, where there are many industrial sites of national importance, and a high likelihood of a complex multi-hazard volcanic eruption. We find a considerable increase in the systemic vulnerability of electricity and natural gas network components after incorporating infrastructure interdependencies, and a further increase in the systemic vulnerability of these critical components when cross-referenced with potential volcanic hazard spatial extent. The methodology of this study can be applied to other areas of interest in both its hazard-agnostic or hazard-dependent form, and the systemic vulnerability quantification should be incorporated into impact assessment frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104997"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104996
Lei Zhou , Mengnan Zhang
This study employs a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the economic resilience of Shanghai's aviation system disruption caused by Typhoon Lekima. The research integrates advanced modules for disaster shock and economic resilience, providing a comprehensive framework to evaluate economic resilience tactics and their effectiveness. Specially, the disaster shock module is designed to account for perturbations in both commodity flow and passenger flow, and the economic resilience module incorporates both inherent and adaptive resilience tactics. The results show the following. First, Typhoon Lekima significantly impacted Shanghai's aviation system, resulting in substantial GDP losses of 0.52 %, decreased government revenue by 0.29 %, and reduced total investment in the base scenario. Second, the implementation of resilience tactics, both inherent and adaptive, mitigated these losses. Inherent resilience reduced potential GDP losses by 0.29 % in the Shanghai region. Adaptive resilience tactics, such as flight rescheduling, flight diversion, and effective management processes, though initially suppressing GDP due to resource reallocation towards recovery efforts, ultimately enhanced the system's overall resilience. Third, traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities, especially in the regional output and value added. The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation, storage, and postal service, and wholesale and retail trade. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in the aviation industry, highlighting the necessity of resilience tactics to mitigate the economic impacts of future disruptions.
本研究采用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型来评估台风 "勒基玛 "对上海航空系统造成破坏后的经济恢复能力。该研究整合了先进的灾害冲击和经济恢复力模块，为评估经济恢复力策略及其有效性提供了一个全面的框架。特别是，灾害冲击模块的设计考虑了商品流和客流的扰动，而经济弹性模块则包含了固有弹性策略和自适应弹性策略。结果显示如下。首先，台风 "勒基玛 "对上海航空系统造成了重大影响，在基础情景下，GDP大幅损失了0.52%，政府收入减少了0.29%，总投资也有所减少。其次，固有和适应性抗灾策略的实施减轻了这些损失。内在抗灾能力使上海地区的潜在 GDP 损失减少了 0.29%。适应性恢复策略，如航班重新安排、航班改道和有效的管理流程，虽然最初由于资源重新分配用于恢复工作而抑制了 GDP，但最终增强了系统的整体恢复能力。第三，交通中断对区域贸易活动，特别是区域产出和附加值产生重大阻碍作用。对交通中断最敏感的行业是运输、仓储和邮政服务业以及批发和零售业。这些研究结果为航空业的政策制定者和利益相关者提供了宝贵的见解，强调了采取弹性策略以减轻未来中断对经济影响的必要性。
{"title":"Assessing economic resilience in aviation system disruptions based on CGE model","authors":"Lei Zhou , Mengnan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104996","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104996","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study employs a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the economic resilience of Shanghai's aviation system disruption caused by Typhoon Lekima. The research integrates advanced modules for disaster shock and economic resilience, providing a comprehensive framework to evaluate economic resilience tactics and their effectiveness. Specially, the disaster shock module is designed to account for perturbations in both commodity flow and passenger flow, and the economic resilience module incorporates both inherent and adaptive resilience tactics. The results show the following. First, Typhoon Lekima significantly impacted Shanghai's aviation system, resulting in substantial GDP losses of 0.52 %, decreased government revenue by 0.29 %, and reduced total investment in the base scenario. Second, the implementation of resilience tactics, both inherent and adaptive, mitigated these losses. Inherent resilience reduced potential GDP losses by 0.29 % in the Shanghai region. Adaptive resilience tactics, such as flight rescheduling, flight diversion, and effective management processes, though initially suppressing GDP due to resource reallocation towards recovery efforts, ultimately enhanced the system's overall resilience. Third, traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities, especially in the regional output and value added. The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation, storage, and postal service, and wholesale and retail trade. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in the aviation industry, highlighting the necessity of resilience tactics to mitigate the economic impacts of future disruptions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104996"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104925
Anıl Tevfik Koçer , Ali Akpek , Alperen Vural , Ayça Aslan , Arzu Erkoç , Aybike Manav Özen , Aynur Şahin , Aysel Oktay , Ayşe Aslı Şenol , Ayşegül Batıoğlu-Karaaltın , Azize Demir , Benan İnan , Bengü Doğu Kaya , Beste Turanlı , Betül Yılmaz , Beyza Karacaoğlu , Bilge Tarçın , Birsay Gümrü Tarçın , Bora Korkut , Burcu Onat , Zeynep Kuzu
Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural hazards that cause loss of life, loss of property and destruction of infrastructure when they interact with vulnerabilities in human systems. The health impacts of these events are not only limited to immediate trauma and injuries, but also affect both physical and mental health in the short and long term. In this context, understanding the short- and long-term public health impacts of earthquakes and developing effective solutions is a priority both nationally and internationally. This review comprehensively examines the health challenges posed by earthquakes, focusing on the earthquakes that occurred in Türkiye on February 6, 2023. It addresses acute responses such as post-earthquake trauma management, emergency health services, potential earthquake-related risks and search and rescue activities, as well as chronic challenges such as sustained physical rehabilitation and psychosocial support in the long term. By analyzing current strategies and outcomes, this study aims to provide important insights into effective health management practices following earthquakes.
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Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104929
Ram Krishna Mazumder , Elaina J. Sutley
Measuring and predicting the functionality of buildings is a core aspect of community resilience analysis, which is jointly dependent on structural integrity and essential services provided by critical infrastructure systems. A functional building is one that is used for its intended services. This paper develops a multi-step community-level functionality analysis framework by modelling: (1) building functionality that integrates the building's structural performance, essential water and electric power service performance, and physical accessibility through road networks; (2) portfolio-level building recovery by aggregating functionality of buildings for an entire community; and (3) serviceability of infrastructure systems. Graph theory is applied to assess performance of infrastructure systems. The cascading effect of water pipe failure on the road network is modelled through geographic dependency analysis. Post-earthquake water demand changes due to household dislocation and return, and increased water service demand at essential facilities are captured to model the performance of the water network under stressed conditions. The framework also assesses household-level housing recovery and integrates results with physical damage repair to more holistically depict the functional recovery of buildings from the perspective that buildings must be occupied to be fully functional. The proposed framework is illustrated for a scenario earthquake for the virtual community of Centerville. Findings provide an up-to-date measurement of post-disaster functionality for buildings and critical infrastructure systems that can guide decision-makers during pre-disaster planning and post-disaster recovery. The example demonstrates that consideration of essential infrastructure services significantly alters the functionality of the built environment during the recovery process. For instance, power outages resulted in functionality loss of up to 75 % of physically operable buildings for as much as 14 days. Consideration of physical accessibility loss to nearest road segments resulted in a portfolio functionality drop of up to 9 % for 6 days, and partial water shortage significantly hampered the functionality of the impacted area, including the regional hospital. Approximately 3 % of households were unable to repair their damaged homes and became homeless. The proposed framework enables risk-informed decisions regarding long-term recovery at the community scale with inclusion of those living at the margins and most susceptible to long-term negative consequences from disasters.
{"title":"A multi-step framework for measuring post-earthquake recovery: Integrating essential infrastructure System's serviceability in building functionality","authors":"Ram Krishna Mazumder , Elaina J. Sutley","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104929","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104929","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Measuring and predicting the functionality of buildings is a core aspect of community resilience analysis, which is jointly dependent on structural integrity and essential services provided by critical infrastructure systems. A functional building is one that is used for its intended services. This paper develops a multi-step community-level functionality analysis framework by modelling: (1) building functionality that integrates the building's structural performance, essential water and electric power service performance, and physical accessibility through road networks; (2) portfolio-level building recovery by aggregating functionality of buildings for an entire community; and (3) serviceability of infrastructure systems. Graph theory is applied to assess performance of infrastructure systems. The cascading effect of water pipe failure on the road network is modelled through geographic dependency analysis. Post-earthquake water demand changes due to household dislocation and return, and increased water service demand at essential facilities are captured to model the performance of the water network under stressed conditions. The framework also assesses household-level housing recovery and integrates results with physical damage repair to more holistically depict the functional recovery of buildings from the perspective that buildings must be occupied to be fully functional. The proposed framework is illustrated for a scenario earthquake for the virtual community of Centerville. Findings provide an up-to-date measurement of post-disaster functionality for buildings and critical infrastructure systems that can guide decision-makers during pre-disaster planning and post-disaster recovery. The example demonstrates that consideration of essential infrastructure services significantly alters the functionality of the built environment during the recovery process. For instance, power outages resulted in functionality loss of up to 75 % of physically operable buildings for as much as 14 days. Consideration of physical accessibility loss to nearest road segments resulted in a portfolio functionality drop of up to 9 % for 6 days, and partial water shortage significantly hampered the functionality of the impacted area, including the regional hospital. <u>Approximately 3 % of households were unable to repair their damaged homes and became homeless. The proposed framework enables risk-informed decisions regarding long-term recovery at the community scale with inclusion of those living at the margins and most susceptible to long-term negative consequences from disasters.</u></div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104929"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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