International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第9页

Emergence of State-reinforced Adaptive Governance: the case of Storm Alex in Southeast France 国家强化的适应性治理的出现：以法国东南部的亚历克斯风暴为例

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105934

Camille Washington-Ottombre

On October 2nd and 3rd 2020, Storm Alex violently hit Southeast France. It resulted in approximately one billion euros of damage, making it the most destructive event in metropolitan France since WWII. Building on US-focused scholarship on State-reinforced adaptive governance (AG), this work treats the event as an emergence frontier and analyzes how formal authorities responded to this climate catastrophe. More specifically it examines authorities’ risk management and urban planning efforts at this emergence frontier to determine the extent to which they successfully promoted State-reinforced AG and adaptation to climate change in their responses to the storm. To evaluate this, the paper mobilizes the analytical framework designed by DeCaro et al. (2017), a rubric of legal and institutional design principles whose implementation has been shown to facilitate the development of State-reinforced AG. More specifically, with these principles, it mobilized a mix-methodology to assess if and how administrative laws and central authorities supported lower levels of governance and promoted the emergence of AG in the context of a new polycentric order. This work shows that responses to Storm Alex led to the emergence of State-reinforced AG in the areas of risk management and urban planning. The case study illustrates that combining the analysis of legal and institutional design principles is both synergistic and makes a reliable indicator for the emergence of AG. In addition, this study contributes to the growing literature on State-reinforced AG by presenting a case study from France, a country with historically highly centralized governance system. This work also engages with criticisms of AG by providing a contextualized analysis and an in-depth and complex examination of the roles played by agents of change in shaping the emergence of AG.

2020年10月2日和3日，风暴“亚历克斯”猛烈袭击法国东南部。它造成了大约10亿欧元的损失，使其成为二战以来法国大都市最具破坏性的事件。在以美国为重点的国家强化适应性治理（AG）研究的基础上，本研究将这一事件视为一个新兴前沿，并分析了官方当局如何应对这一气候灾难。更具体地说，它审查了当局在这一新兴前沿的风险管理和城市规划工作，以确定他们在应对风暴时成功促进国家强化农业和适应气候变化的程度。为了评估这一点，本文利用了DeCaro等人（2017）设计的分析框架，这是一个法律和制度设计原则的框架，其实施已被证明有助于国家加强的农业发展。更具体地说，根据这些原则，它动员了一种混合方法，以评估行政法律和中央当局是否以及如何支持较低层次的治理，并在新的多中心秩序背景下促进农业集团的出现。这项工作表明，对“亚历克斯”风暴的应对导致了风险管理和城市规划领域出现了国家强化的农业集团。案例研究表明，将法律设计原则与制度设计原则相结合的分析是协同作用的，并且是AG出现的可靠指标。此外，本研究通过对历史上高度集中治理体系的法国的案例研究，为越来越多的关于国家强化农业的文献做出了贡献。这项工作还通过提供背景分析和对变革推动者在塑造农业发展过程中所起作用的深入而复杂的检查，参与了对农业发展的批评。

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引用次数: 0

Using an ecological model to guide transformative place-based pathways to regional business disaster recovery 利用生态模型指导基于地方的转型路径，实现区域商业灾难恢复

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105932

Catherine Mackenzie , Margaret Becker , Sudarshan Subedi , Kathyayini Kathy Rao

The escalating frequency, severity and scale of disasters and predicted more frequent epidemics and pandemics threatens the economic and social fabric of regional communities in Australia. This article reports on findings from two case studies conducted in South Australia that explored regional business recovery pathways following the Black Summer fires (2019/2020) and the COVID-19 pandemic. We used Bronfenbrenner's ecological systems theory of human development to analyse data from 18 interviews with small business owners. We found that the linkages between systems are where the most effective support occurs and yet these linkages are often missing, under-resourced and captured by unhelpful definitions of resilience and self-reliance. We explored the complex mix of supports that already exist in communities, as well as supports delivered by different levels of government, to provide insights regarding the types and timing of these supports. Our findings contribute to developing place-based approaches to navigate pathways for regional businesses to recover and thrive post-disaster. Our findings are relevant beyond this study, providing guidance to those working with communities to foster transformative place-based recovery.

灾害发生的频率、严重程度和规模不断升级，预计流行病和大流行病将更加频繁，威胁着澳大利亚各区域社区的经济和社会结构。本文报告了在南澳大利亚进行的两个案例研究的结果，这些研究探索了黑色夏季火灾（2019/2020）和COVID-19大流行后的区域商业复苏路径。我们使用Bronfenbrenner的人类发展生态系统理论来分析来自18个小企业主访谈的数据。我们发现，系统之间的联系是最有效的支持发生的地方，但这些联系往往是缺失的，资源不足的，并且被无用的弹性和自力更生的定义所捕捉。我们探索了社区中已经存在的复杂的支持组合，以及不同级别政府提供的支持，以提供有关这些支持的类型和时间的见解。我们的研究结果有助于制定基于地方的方法，为地区企业在灾后恢复和繁荣开辟道路。我们的研究结果与本研究无关，为那些与社区合作以促进变革性的基于地方的恢复提供指导。

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引用次数: 0

Who pays for preparedness? Valuing disaster app features through a factorial survey experiment in flood-prone communities 谁来支付准备费用？通过在洪水易发社区进行因子调查实验来评估灾害应用程序的功能

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105933

Katsuya Tanaka , Tadashi Kito , Kohji Tanaka

This study evaluates public preferences for next-generation disaster preparedness apps using a factorial survey experiment in flood-prone Japanese communities. The analysis first reveals a fundamental heterogeneity in public receptiveness, identifying two distinct segments: a small "receptive" minority (approx. 20 %) willing to consider adoption, and a large "unreceptive" majority (approx. 80 %) that rejects the app regardless of its features or price. Consequently, focusing on the receptive segment, the study estimates the economic value of specific app features. Results show that functions for immediate personal safety and family security—such as Rescue Request and Family Status Confirmation—are most highly prized. These findings lead to the conclusion that a freemium model is the most viable strategy for social implementation, offering a free version with basic features to the unreceptive majority while providing a premium, feature-rich version to the receptive minority at a sustainable price point. This dual approach can maximize public reach while ensuring financial viability.

本研究通过在日本易发洪水社区进行因子调查实验，评估公众对下一代备灾应用程序的偏好。分析首先揭示了公众接受程度的基本异质性，确定了两个不同的部分：一个小的“接受”少数（约为2000人）。20%)愿意考虑收养，而大部分“不接受”的人（大约20%）不愿意收养。80%)，不管应用的功能或价格如何，他们都会拒绝。因此，该研究将重点放在接受用户群体上，评估特定应用功能的经济价值。结果表明，即时的个人安全和家庭安全功能，如救援请求和家庭状态确认，是最受重视的。这些发现让我们得出结论，免费增值模式是最可行的社交执行策略，即向不接受的多数用户提供带有基本功能的免费版本，同时向接受的少数用户提供具有可持续价格的付费、功能丰富的版本。这种双重方法可以最大限度地扩大公众影响力，同时确保财务可行性。

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引用次数: 0

Economic spillovers of wildfire recovery efforts in remote Indigenous communities in Canada: The case of Little Red River Cree Nation 加拿大偏远土著社区野火恢复工作的经济溢出效应：以小红河克里族为例

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105930

Daniel Yupanqui , Oscar Zapata , David Natcher , Ken Belcher , Suren Kulshreshtha

This study examined the economic impacts of the reconstruction of Fox Lake, Alberta, following the 2023 Paskwa wildfire. Fox Lake, one of three reserves of the Little Red River Cree Nation, lost 190 homes and other critical community infrastructure. Initial rebuilding costs have exceeded $160 million CAD. Wildfires present an ongoing challenge globally, especially for remote Indigenous communities in Canada, where climate change intensifies wildfire risk. The main consequences include damage to infrastructure and disruption of lives, calling for government recovery support. In 2024, the province of Alberta allocated $2 billion specifically to combat wildfires. Employing the provincial Input-Output model, we estimate the economic impact of government spending for wildfire response and recovery on Alberta's economy. The impact is evaluated by measuring the rise in production value across Alberta's sectors relative to government-assisted recovery efforts. We estimate the economic effects of evacuation, transportation, and reconstruction expenditures by utilizing daily ledger reports of recovery expenses from March 2023 to April 2024, along with Alberta's 2020 Supply and Use tables.

The main findings indicate that expenditures for post-fire recovery in Fox Lake increased the provincial production values. The estimated output multipliers for evacuation, transportation, and reconstruction expenditures are 1.71, 1.74, and 1.77, respectively, while the aggregate recovery spending has an overall multiplier of 1.76. The federal government's contributions of $291 million resulted in a $221 million increase in provincial production. This boosted Alberta's gross value added by $253 million and created 2300 full-time equivalent jobs, representing 0.1 % of the provincial workforce.

本研究考察了2023年帕斯卡瓦野火后，艾伯塔省福克斯湖重建的经济影响。福克斯湖是小红河克里族的三个保护区之一，损失了190座房屋和其他重要的社区基础设施。最初的重建费用已超过1.6亿加元。野火在全球范围内是一个持续的挑战，特别是对加拿大偏远的土著社区，气候变化加剧了野火的风险。主要后果包括基础设施受损和生活中断，呼吁政府提供恢复支持。2024年，阿尔伯塔省专门拨款20亿美元用于扑灭野火。采用省投入产出模型，我们估计了政府在野火应对和恢复方面的支出对艾伯塔省经济的经济影响。影响是通过衡量阿尔伯塔省各部门相对于政府援助的恢复工作的产值增长来评估的。我们利用2023年3月至2024年4月的恢复费用每日分类报告，以及阿尔伯塔省2020年的供应和使用表，估计了疏散、运输和重建支出的经济影响。主要研究结果表明，福克斯湖火灾后恢复的支出增加了该省的产值。估计疏散、运输和重建支出的产出乘数分别为1.71、1.74和1.77，而总恢复支出的总体乘数为1.76。联邦政府提供的2.91亿美元使各省的产量增加了2.21亿美元。这使艾伯塔省的总增加值增加了2.53亿美元，创造了2300个全职工作岗位，占全省劳动力的0.1%。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating risk and resilience: Exploring cultural, local responses, livelihoods, and institutions to Mount Merapi's volcanic hazards 驾驭风险和恢复力：探索文化、当地反应、生计和机构对默拉皮火山灾害的影响

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105929

Alfi Rahman , Muzayin Nazaruddin , Anang Hermawan , Dahlawi , Deni Yanuar , Nurul Fajar Januriyadi

Mount Merapi, among the world's most active volcanoes, poses complex risks while fostering unique opportunities for surrounding communities. This study investigates how local knowledge, cultural practices, and institutional frameworks converge to shape adaptive strategies and resilience in the face of volcanic hazards. Employing qualitative methods, including in-depth and group interviews with local residents, community leaders, traditional authorities, and government representatives, the research applies thematic and narrative analyses to illuminate both practical and cultural dimensions of everyday risk navigation. Findings demonstrate that local and spiritual knowledge, lived experience, and collaborative networks are pivotal for hazard recognition and community preparedness. The integration of these local capacities with modern tools—such as real-time monitoring and participatory evacuation planning—amplifies their effectiveness. Meanwhile, economic activities like sand mining and tourism generate both livelihoods and new vulnerabilities, highlighting persistent social and environmental trade-offs. Ultimately, the study concludes that disaster resilience on Mount Merapi is inherently multidimensional, demanding the integration of indigenous and scientific knowledge, sustainable economic practices, and inclusive policy approaches.

默拉皮火山是世界上最活跃的火山之一，它带来了复杂的风险，同时也为周围的社区创造了独特的机会。本研究探讨了当地知识、文化习俗和制度框架如何汇聚在一起，形成应对火山灾害的适应策略和复原力。本研究采用定性方法，包括对当地居民、社区领袖、传统权威机构和政府代表进行深入和小组访谈，运用主题和叙事分析来阐明日常风险导航的实践和文化维度。研究结果表明，地方和精神知识、生活经验和协作网络对于认识危害和社区准备至关重要。将这些地方能力与现代工具（如实时监控和参与式疏散计划）相结合，可以增强其有效性。与此同时，采砂和旅游等经济活动既创造了生计，也带来了新的脆弱性，凸显了持续存在的社会和环境权衡。最后，该研究得出结论，默拉皮火山的抗灾能力本质上是多维的，需要将土著知识和科学知识、可持续经济实践和包容性政策方法结合起来。

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引用次数: 0

Disability leadership and the future of inclusive disaster risk reduction 残疾人领导力与包容性减少灾害风险的未来

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105927

Michelle Villeneuve , Damian Mellifont , Liala Cadelli , Ivy Yen , Michelle Moss

This study examines a peer leadership approach by a disability representative organisation in Australia, designed to enhance individualised support for members and improve systemic advocacy efforts. Our research objective was to explore the structure, roles, leadership qualities, and benefits of disability-led peer support groups as part of a broader participatory action research program examining disability leadership and its application in Disability Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction (DIDRR). Structured interviews were conducted with 14 peer leaders from established groups, with reflexive thematic analysis applied to interpret the data. The research identified transformational leadership qualities within the peer support model, including a shared purpose, mentoring, and supportive connections. Leaders fostered inclusivity, facilitating information sharing and community bonding. Notably, the deliberate use of curiosity and joint exploration emerged as a key method for building confidence among less-heard members, turning the disability representative organisation into a dynamic learning hub that integrates grassroots insights to enhance disability-inclusive programs and advocacy strategies. The study highlights the effectiveness of transformational leadership in disability peer support groups, offering insights into peer leadership dynamics and its potential to advance DIDRR. Further research could expand its application, transforming disaster preparedness and response strategies to be more inclusive and effective.

本研究考察了澳大利亚残疾人代表组织的同伴领导方法，旨在加强对成员的个性化支持并改进系统倡导工作。我们的研究目的是探索残疾人领导的同伴支持小组的结构、角色、领导素质和效益，作为更广泛的参与行动研究项目的一部分，研究残疾人领导及其在残疾人包容性灾害风险减少（DIDRR）中的应用。与来自已建立团体的14位同行领导人进行了结构化访谈，并应用反身性主题分析来解释数据。该研究在同伴支持模型中确定了变革型领导的品质，包括共同目标、指导和支持性联系。领导人培养包容性，促进信息共享和社区联系。值得注意的是，有意识地利用好奇心和共同探索，成为在较少听到的成员中建立信心的关键方法，将残疾人代表组织变成了一个充满活力的学习中心，整合了基层的见解，以加强残疾人包容性项目和倡导战略。该研究强调了变革型领导在残疾同伴支持小组中的有效性，提供了对同伴领导动态及其推进DIDRR的潜力的见解。进一步的研究可以扩大其应用范围，使备灾和救灾战略更具包容性和有效性。

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引用次数: 0

Is climate risk perception enough? Empirical evidence from Australian farmers 气候风险感知就足够了吗？来自澳大利亚农民的经验证据

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105918

Salini Khuraijam , Heidi Wechtler , Vaughan Higgins , Hanabeth Luke

This research contributes to debates regarding the disconnect between climate risk perception and actual adaptation strategies among farmers. This disconnect is particularly concerning in the context of increasing climate-related disasters affecting agricultural systems. We challenge the assumption of a direct link and explore alternative factors influencing adaptation behaviour. We investigate the role of climate risk perception, alongside socio-economic and non-climatic factors, on farmers’ adoption of soil health practices in Australia. Using survey data from Australian farmers (n = 531), we employ Poisson regression to model the intensity of adaptation, measured as the count of soil health practices adopted. Our analysis finds that innovation attitude, risk aversion, training attendance, rainfall zone, age, location, and formal education are significant predictors of the intensity of adaptation, while climate risk perception is not directly significant. Our findings suggest a “risk-action gap” where climate risk perception does not necessarily translate into increased soil health adaptations. This highlights the need for targeted interventions beyond awareness-raising, focusing on location-specific needs, risk management, fostering innovation, and improving access to training.

这项研究有助于讨论农民对气候风险的认知与实际适应策略之间的脱节。在影响农业系统的气候相关灾害日益增多的背景下，这种脱节尤其令人担忧。我们挑战了直接联系的假设，并探索了影响适应行为的其他因素。我们调查了气候风险感知的作用，以及社会经济和非气候因素，对澳大利亚农民采用土壤健康做法。利用来自澳大利亚农民的调查数据（n = 531），我们采用泊松回归来模拟适应强度，以采用的土壤健康措施的数量来衡量。分析发现，创新态度、风险规避、培训出勤率、降雨区、年龄、地点和正规教育程度是适应强度的显著预测因子，而气候风险感知对适应强度的影响不显著。我们的研究结果表明存在“风险-行动差距”，即气候风险感知不一定转化为土壤健康适应的增加。这突出表明，除了提高认识之外，还需要采取有针对性的干预措施，重点关注具体地点的需求、风险管理、促进创新和改善获得培训的机会。

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引用次数: 0

Objective versus subjective landslide risk: A case of Cache Creek Landslide in California 客观与主观滑坡风险：加利福尼亚州Cache Creek滑坡的一个案例

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105910

Timothy D. Stark , Kayley D. Estes , Roxane Cohen Silver , E. Alison Holman , Ben A. Leshchinsky , Farshid Vahedifard

Landslides pose a significant threat to infrastructure, communities, and human life throughout the world. A critical first step toward landslide risk reduction lies in risk awareness and proactive risk mitigation. However, in some cases, a lack of awareness or underestimation of landslide risks among communities and local stakeholders can lead to increased losses from potential landslide events. This study explores divergences between objective and subjective landslide risk assessments, focusing on the Cache Creek Landslide in Lake County, California. The landslide is in a region highly susceptible to various hazards. For the objective assessment of landslide risk, this study utilized imagery from Google Earth and publicly available digital elevation models to track the movements of the Cache Creek Landslide since 1953. Landslide movements over time were analyzed regarding cascading hazards such as heavy precipitation, post-wildfire conditions, and seismic activity. For subjective landslide risk assessment, a survey was conducted among adult residents throughout Lake County. Survey results revealed that most of the residential community surrounding Cache Creek is predominantly unaware of the landslide and the cascading hazards it poses. We argue that engineers and scientists must better convey disaster potential to the public to motivate community and governmental response. These differences in objective findings and subjective perceptions have significant implications, including potential delays in implementing necessary mitigation strategies and increased vulnerability of at-risk populations. Addressing these gaps is essential to enhance landslide risk awareness and foster proactive measures, ultimately reducing the devastating impacts of landslides in vulnerable communities.

山体滑坡对世界各地的基础设施、社区和人类生命构成重大威胁。减少滑坡风险的关键第一步在于风险意识和主动减轻风险。然而，在某些情况下，社区和地方利益相关者缺乏对滑坡风险的认识或低估可能导致潜在滑坡事件造成的损失增加。本研究探讨了客观和主观滑坡风险评估之间的差异，重点是加利福尼亚州湖县的Cache Creek滑坡。滑坡发生在各种灾害易发地区。为了客观评估滑坡风险，本研究利用谷歌Earth的图像和公开的数字高程模型来跟踪自1953年以来Cache Creek滑坡的运动。滑坡运动随着时间的推移分析了级联危害，如强降水、野火后条件和地震活动。为了进行主观滑坡风险评价，对莱克县的成年居民进行了调查。调查结果显示，卡什克里克周围的大多数居民对山体滑坡及其造成的连锁危害基本上一无所知。我们认为，工程师和科学家必须更好地向公众传达潜在的灾害，以激励社区和政府作出反应。这些客观调查结果和主观看法的差异产生了重大影响，包括在执行必要的缓解战略方面可能出现延误，以及高危人群的脆弱性增加。解决这些差距对于提高滑坡风险意识和采取积极措施至关重要，最终减少滑坡对脆弱社区的破坏性影响。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing post-fire rehabilitation: Development and validation of a continuous monitoring index 评估火灾后的康复：开发和验证连续监测指数

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105924

Spyridon Kaloudis , Dimitrios Raptis , Stavroula Galanopoulou , Konstantinos Demestichas , Evdoxia Lykoudi , Filotheos Ntalianis , Dimitrios Zografakis , Dimitrios Sykas , Constantina Costopoulou

Successful post-fire rehabilitation is of utmost importance in wildfire-prone areas. Within the broader framework of postfire management, a tool that facilitates the continuous evaluation of applied strategies is therefore potentially essential. The current study aims to contribute to this process through the definition, implementation and validation of the Continuous Monitoring for Post-Fire Rehabilitation Index, thereby filling a gap in the existing literature. The proposed index integrates variables representing the ecological and socio-economic status of an area, which have been thoroughly weighted through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). To that end, a structured survey was conducted among 14 experts across Europe to obtain pairwise comparisons and to derive the corresponding variable weights. A Likert scale was employed to ensure unbiased scoring transformation and homogeneity across diverse data types. The survey responses were rigorously processed to ensure consistency, address missing judgments, and aggregate preference weights. To further support spatial distribution on a Geographic Information System basis, a software tool was developed using the Python programming language. The index's reliability and sensitivity were validated using the Monte Carlo simulation method and tested on field data in the form of maps using a Geodatabase in a burned area in Northern Evia, Greece, across two distinct periods. The results of the sensitivity analysis shown that the index runs smoothly. The produced spatial data from its application in the test area indicate that it classifies locations according to the impact size, and maps the progress of rehabilitation efforts between the two evaluation periods with clarity and reliability compared to the field rehabilitation progress.

在野火易发地区，成功的灾后重建至关重要。因此，在更广泛的火灾后管理框架内，一种有助于持续评价所实施战略的工具可能是必不可少的。本研究旨在通过火灾后持续监测康复指数的定义、实施和验证，为这一过程做出贡献，从而填补现有文献的空白。该指数综合了代表一个地区生态和社会经济状况的变量，这些变量通过层次分析法（AHP）进行了彻底的加权。为此，在欧洲的14名专家中进行了一项结构化调查，以获得两两比较并得出相应的可变权重。采用李克特量表来确保不同数据类型的无偏评分转换和同质性。调查回应经过严格处理，以确保一致性，解决缺失的判断，和总偏好权重。为了进一步支持地理信息系统的空间分布，我们使用Python编程语言开发了一个软件工具。利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法验证了该指数的可靠性和灵敏度，并利用希腊北部Evia地区两个不同时期的Geodatabase以地图的形式对现场数据进行了测试。灵敏度分析结果表明，该指标运行平稳。该方法在试验区应用产生的空间数据表明，该方法根据影响大小对地点进行了分类，并与现场修复进度相比，清晰可靠地绘制了两个评估期之间的修复进度图。

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引用次数: 0

Disparities in wildfire regimes across China's borders: Policy-driven asymmetries in fire frequency, intensity and impact 中国边境野火制度的差异：政策驱动的火灾频率、强度和影响的不对称

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105922

Kaida Yan , Fengjun Zhao , Yongqiang Liu , Lifu Shu , Mingyu Wang , Liqing Si , Weike Li

Border zones between countries are among the world regions with large spatial variability in wildfires. However, our understanding of fire regimes in these areas, particularly quantitative assessments of cross-border fire risk, remains limited. This study examines fire regimes and their driving factors along China's extensive land borders, which encompass the world's longest border and the second-highest number of neighboring countries. Utilizing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiomete satellite products, we analyzed fire occurrence (fire count), intensity (fire radiative power), and impact (burned area) within 50-km buffer zones on both sides of the border, their relationships with vegetation, and the statistical differences across borders. The results indicate that approximately 10 % of China's land border areas face threats from cross-border fires, primarily originating from Russia, Mongolia, and Laos. The wildfire metrics in neighboring countries—notably the fire count and cumulative FRP in Russia, Myanmar, and Laos and the total burned area in Mongolia and Russia—were significantly greater than those in China. However, the differences in vegetation between inside and outside the borders were not significant. The results suggest that the fire disparities were primarily driven by divergent fire management policies and resource allocation. We argue that effective mitigation of transboundary fire risk requires an integrated approach that combines regional governance, targeted prevention measures, and strengthened international cooperation. Quantifying policy-driven disparities in fire regimes provides a critical baseline for coordinated management in global border hotspots.

国家之间的边境地区是世界上野火空间变异性较大的地区之一。然而，我们对这些地区的火灾制度的了解，特别是对跨境火灾风险的定量评估，仍然有限。这项研究考察了中国广阔的陆地边界上的五种制度及其驱动因素，这些边界包括世界上最长的边界和第二多的邻国。利用中分辨率成像光谱仪（Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiomete）卫星产品，我们分析了边界两侧50 km缓冲区内的火灾发生率（火灾数）、强度（火灾辐射功率）和影响（烧毁面积）、它们与植被的关系以及边界间的统计差异。结果表明，大约10%的中国陆地边境地区面临跨境火灾的威胁，主要来自俄罗斯、蒙古和老挝。邻国的野火指标——尤其是俄罗斯、缅甸和老挝的火灾数量和累计FRP，以及蒙古和俄罗斯的总燃烧面积——明显大于中国。而边界内外植被差异不显著。结果表明，不同的火灾管理政策和资源配置是造成火灾差异的主要原因。我们认为，有效减轻跨界火灾风险需要采取综合办法，将区域治理、有针对性的预防措施和加强国际合作结合起来。量化火灾制度中政策驱动的差异为全球边境热点地区的协调管理提供了重要的基线。

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引用次数: 0