People-centered, inclusive Early Warning Systems (EWS) that inspire the adoption of early, preemptive protective actions are essential components for protecting lives, assets, and livelihoods against impending hazards. However, warnings often fail to reach rural populations or prompt preparedness. This study examines how co-production through Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) techniques can strengthen people-centered EWS at the community level. Empirical research was conducted in two coastal communities in Kerala, India, affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and the 2018 floods, engaging 159 participants with PRA methods. This included key informant interviews, storytelling, focus group discussions, and participatory mapping. Results revealed barriers to risk communication, shelter, livelihood instability, and response capacities that constrain last-mile connectivity. The majority of respondents reported being unprepared for evacuation. At the same time, more than half of the participants were satisfied with sheltering, most of whom stayed with other families because designated shelters were inadequate. However, the findings also highlighted that enabling factors, such as trusted communication channels and inclusive coordination mechanisms, as well as gender-sensitive early action, could be mobilized to improve EWS. The study recommends co-production through PRA as an approach to document and empower lived experiences in the context of early warning and response preparedness for people-centered DRR.
{"title":"Participatory engagement and lived experiences of early warning and preparedness in two rural communities in Kerala, South India","authors":"Samira Pfeiffer , Hari Chandana Ekkirala , Sudha Arlikatti , Souresh Cornet , Saskia Werners , Maneesha Vinodini Ramesh","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105986","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105986","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>People-centered, inclusive Early Warning Systems (EWS) that inspire the adoption of early, preemptive protective actions are essential components for protecting lives, assets, and livelihoods against impending hazards. However, warnings often fail to reach rural populations or prompt preparedness. This study examines how co-production through Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) techniques can strengthen people-centered EWS at the community level. Empirical research was conducted in two coastal communities in Kerala, India, affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and the 2018 floods, engaging 159 participants with PRA methods. This included key informant interviews, storytelling, focus group discussions, and participatory mapping. Results revealed barriers to risk communication, shelter, livelihood instability, and response capacities that constrain last-mile connectivity. The majority of respondents reported being unprepared for evacuation. At the same time, more than half of the participants were satisfied with sheltering, most of whom stayed with other families because designated shelters were inadequate. However, the findings also highlighted that enabling factors, such as trusted communication channels and inclusive coordination mechanisms, as well as gender-sensitive early action, could be mobilized to improve EWS. The study recommends co-production through PRA as an approach to document and empower lived experiences in the context of early warning and response preparedness for people-centered DRR.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105986"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106001
Byung-Chul Lee , Jung Eun Kang , Sang-hyeok Lee , Sung Soon Yoon
Setting up buffer zones to avoid coastal erosion is a method used worldwide, but not been widely adopted in South Korea. The economic feasibility of buffer zones raises questions. Using spatial cost-benefit analysis (CBA), this study compared setback acquisition costs with previously invested costs in hard protection and nourishment at two contrasting beaches: Gungchon-Munam Beach (in a rural area) and Haeundae Beach (in a highly developed urban area). Erosion zones by 2100 were predicted using MeePaSoL and HaeSaBeeN under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 sea-level rise scenarios. For Gungchon-Munam Beach, the results showed that the entire erosion-prone area can be acquired at a lower cost than past investments in hard infrastructure. By contrast, owing to high land and building values, Haeundae Beach allows only partial acquisition under equivalent costs. However, priority areas for setback buffer zones can still be identified. These findings suggest that setback strategies may be more economically viable in rural areas and selectively applicable in urban zones. This study proposes a replicable spatial CBA framework for determining effective setback areas, providing a decision-making tool for integrated coastal management. While the analysis focused on economic factors, the results highlight the need for future studies to incorporate ecological and social factors into the research. The proposed method supports precautionary coastal planning under climate change and can aid in long-term resilience by minimizing sunk costs and improving adaptive policy decisions.
{"title":"Application of cost-benefit analysis for establishing coastal erosion setback buffer zones in South Korea","authors":"Byung-Chul Lee , Jung Eun Kang , Sang-hyeok Lee , Sung Soon Yoon","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Setting up buffer zones to avoid coastal erosion is a method used worldwide, but not been widely adopted in South Korea. The economic feasibility of buffer zones raises questions. Using spatial cost-benefit analysis (CBA), this study compared setback acquisition costs with previously invested costs in hard protection and nourishment at two contrasting beaches: Gungchon-Munam Beach (in a rural area) and Haeundae Beach (in a highly developed urban area). Erosion zones by 2100 were predicted using MeePaSoL and HaeSaBeeN under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 sea-level rise scenarios. For Gungchon-Munam Beach, the results showed that the entire erosion-prone area can be acquired at a lower cost than past investments in hard infrastructure. By contrast, owing to high land and building values, Haeundae Beach allows only partial acquisition under equivalent costs. However, priority areas for setback buffer zones can still be identified. These findings suggest that setback strategies may be more economically viable in rural areas and selectively applicable in urban zones. This study proposes a replicable spatial CBA framework for determining effective setback areas, providing a decision-making tool for integrated coastal management. While the analysis focused on economic factors, the results highlight the need for future studies to incorporate ecological and social factors into the research. The proposed method supports precautionary coastal planning under climate change and can aid in long-term resilience by minimizing sunk costs and improving adaptive policy decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 106001"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106016
Emmanuel M. Preña, Cherrylyn P. Labayo
This study examines the vulnerability and adaptive responses of aging rice farmers in Philippine agrarian reform communities (ARCs) to intensifying climate extremes, including prolonged heat, drought, heavy rainfall, and tropical cyclones. Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vulnerability framework and extending the Protection Motivation Theory through the Risk, Coping, and Social Appraisal model, this study integrates structural, cognitive, and social dimensions of climate adaptation. Qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews with older farmers, purposively sampled across three ARCs in Castilla, Sorsogon, Philippines, complemented by focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Findings reveal a convergence of high exposure, elevated sensitivity, and uneven adaptive capacity, manifested in chronic heat-related physical strain, disrupted farming calendars due to unpredictable rainfall, and reliance on informal social networks as primary coping mechanisms amid limited institutional support. Farmers demonstrated strong risk appraisal, acknowledging the immediacy and severity of climate threats, yet adaptive action was constrained by low coping efficacy, limited financial and technological resources, and age-related physical limitations. Social appraisal emerged as a critical determinant of resilience, with cohesive farmer organizations and institutional support enabling effective collective adaptation, while weak social cohesion and limited institutional reach exacerbated vulnerability. Policy implications emphasize strengthening coping and social appraisal through targeted investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, tailored extension services for older farmers, community-based adaptation models, and social protection systems such as pensions, crop insurance, and emergency assistance. By addressing structural constraints while leveraging older farmers’ experiential knowledge, these interventions can enhance rural climate resilience and food security.
{"title":"Climate extremes and rural livelihoods: Vulnerability and adaptation of aging farmers in the Philippines","authors":"Emmanuel M. Preña, Cherrylyn P. Labayo","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the vulnerability and adaptive responses of aging rice farmers in Philippine agrarian reform communities (ARCs) to intensifying climate extremes, including prolonged heat, drought, heavy rainfall, and tropical cyclones. Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vulnerability framework and extending the Protection Motivation Theory through the Risk, Coping, and Social Appraisal model, this study integrates structural, cognitive, and social dimensions of climate adaptation. Qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews with older farmers, purposively sampled across three ARCs in Castilla, Sorsogon, Philippines, complemented by focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Findings reveal a convergence of high exposure, elevated sensitivity, and uneven adaptive capacity, manifested in chronic heat-related physical strain, disrupted farming calendars due to unpredictable rainfall, and reliance on informal social networks as primary coping mechanisms amid limited institutional support. Farmers demonstrated strong risk appraisal, acknowledging the immediacy and severity of climate threats, yet adaptive action was constrained by low coping efficacy, limited financial and technological resources, and age-related physical limitations. Social appraisal emerged as a critical determinant of resilience, with cohesive farmer organizations and institutional support enabling effective collective adaptation, while weak social cohesion and limited institutional reach exacerbated vulnerability. Policy implications emphasize strengthening coping and social appraisal through targeted investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, tailored extension services for older farmers, community-based adaptation models, and social protection systems such as pensions, crop insurance, and emergency assistance. By addressing structural constraints while leveraging older farmers’ experiential knowledge, these interventions can enhance rural climate resilience and food security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 106016"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106005
Kenan Liu , Alice Chang-Richards , Seosamh B. Costello , Cécile L'Hermitte , Nan Li
A shortage of local construction materials and inefficient supply chains can severely impede post-disaster reconstruction and recovery. Yet, the extant literature offers limited insights into the material supply processes in relation to transport infrastructure recovery and extreme weather events. To address the gap, this paper adopted a case study approach, including literature reviews, semi-structured interviews and on-site observations, to examine the key challenges impeding material supply for the rapid recovery of transport networks following the 2023 Cyclone Gabrielle in New Zealand. Intervention measures and their effectiveness were also evaluated. The findings revealed that high-specification aggregates (e.g., sealing chips), asphalt concrete and rock armour experienced various supply issues, such as shortages, high haulage costs, delivery delays, and substandard quality. These problems primarily stemmed from six critical challenges, which fall into four domains: 1) geo-conditions, 2) resource management and allocation prioritisation, 3) supply chain planning and development, and 4) project governance and procurement management. The challenges interacted to create systematic complexity in material supply systems. While the intervention measures demonstrated promise in addressing these issues, the persistence of adverse outcomes underscores the necessity for future efforts to shift the focus upstream toward prevention and drive broader systemic transformation. Accordingly, a strategic framework was proposed to enhance construction material supply for rapid and effective transport infrastructure recovery after future extreme weather events.
{"title":"Construction material supply for post-Cyclone Gabrielle transport infrastructure recovery in New Zealand: Challenges and strategies","authors":"Kenan Liu , Alice Chang-Richards , Seosamh B. Costello , Cécile L'Hermitte , Nan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A shortage of local construction materials and inefficient supply chains can severely impede post-disaster reconstruction and recovery. Yet, the extant literature offers limited insights into the material supply processes in relation to transport infrastructure recovery and extreme weather events. To address the gap, this paper adopted a case study approach, including literature reviews, semi-structured interviews and on-site observations, to examine the key challenges impeding material supply for the rapid recovery of transport networks following the 2023 Cyclone Gabrielle in New Zealand. Intervention measures and their effectiveness were also evaluated. The findings revealed that high-specification aggregates (e.g., sealing chips), asphalt concrete and rock armour experienced various supply issues, such as shortages, high haulage costs, delivery delays, and substandard quality. These problems primarily stemmed from six critical challenges, which fall into four domains: 1) geo-conditions, 2) resource management and allocation prioritisation, 3) supply chain planning and development, and 4) project governance and procurement management. The challenges interacted to create systematic complexity in material supply systems. While the intervention measures demonstrated promise in addressing these issues, the persistence of adverse outcomes underscores the necessity for future efforts to shift the focus upstream toward prevention and drive broader systemic transformation. Accordingly, a strategic framework was proposed to enhance construction material supply for rapid and effective transport infrastructure recovery after future extreme weather events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 106005"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-12-02DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105944
Pietro Carpanese , Veronica Follador , Marco Donà , Francesca da Porto
{"title":"Corrigendum to “A methodology for selecting optimal seismic risk mitigation strategies for the Italian residential masonry built heritage” [Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 131 (2025) 105897]","authors":"Pietro Carpanese , Veronica Follador , Marco Donà , Francesca da Porto","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105944","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105944","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105944"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146022790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-02DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105988
Juan J. Monge , Nicola McDonald , Garry McDonald , Nam Bui , Robert Campos Cardwell , Stefania Mattea , Alana M. Weir
The United Nations highlights the need to protect underrepresented and vulnerable groups from disasters. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models commonly assess disaster impacts but typically aggregate agents, limiting the identification of who bears the greatest burdens. Leveraging advances in spatial hazard modelling and synthetic microdata, we integrate spatial and demographic heterogeneity into a multi-regional, recursive-dynamic CGE framework to evaluate disaster impacts on representative household types. We estimate sectoral damage using hazard layers and a business operability model, and we extend the model with a synthetic population to capture differentiated household effects. Using a modelled eruption of Mount Taranaki (New Zealand) as a case study, we find a sharp regional GDP decline in the eruption year, with manufacturing, food, and construction in Stratford, South Taranaki, and New Plymouth most severely affected. Reconstruction drives labour inflows (notably professionals and administrators) that restore output quickly, but household welfare remains persistently suppressed because a putty–clay capital specification renders much of the capital stock unproductive and collapses capital income. Households reliant on capital income—one-person households (largely retirees) and couples with children—suffer the largest and longest-lasting welfare losses; single-parent households are primarily affected by eruption-year price rises. These results underscore a critical divergence between economic activity and household well-being: GDP recovery can mask persistent welfare declines when shocks undermine the capital income base of vulnerable households. We conclude that resilience strategies must target household income losses (including capital-income compensation and strengthened safety nets) and adopt labour-market interventions informed by household heterogeneity and interregional spillovers.
{"title":"Integration of spatial, labour and demographic heterogeneity in a CGE to model the distributional impacts from a disaster","authors":"Juan J. Monge , Nicola McDonald , Garry McDonald , Nam Bui , Robert Campos Cardwell , Stefania Mattea , Alana M. Weir","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105988","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105988","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The United Nations highlights the need to protect underrepresented and vulnerable groups from disasters. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models commonly assess disaster impacts but typically aggregate agents, limiting the identification of who bears the greatest burdens. Leveraging advances in spatial hazard modelling and synthetic microdata, we integrate spatial and demographic heterogeneity into a multi-regional, recursive-dynamic CGE framework to evaluate disaster impacts on representative household types. We estimate sectoral damage using hazard layers and a business operability model, and we extend the model with a synthetic population to capture differentiated household effects. Using a modelled eruption of Mount Taranaki (New Zealand) as a case study, we find a sharp regional GDP decline in the eruption year, with manufacturing, food, and construction in Stratford, South Taranaki, and New Plymouth most severely affected. Reconstruction drives labour inflows (notably professionals and administrators) that restore output quickly, but household welfare remains persistently suppressed because a putty–clay capital specification renders much of the capital stock unproductive and collapses capital income. Households reliant on capital income—one-person households (largely retirees) and couples with children—suffer the largest and longest-lasting welfare losses; single-parent households are primarily affected by eruption-year price rises. These results underscore a critical divergence between economic activity and household well-being: GDP recovery can mask persistent welfare declines when shocks undermine the capital income base of vulnerable households. We conclude that resilience strategies must target household income losses (including capital-income compensation and strengthened safety nets) and adopt labour-market interventions informed by household heterogeneity and interregional spillovers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105988"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105993
Lele Zhang , Xin (Bruce) Wu , Kailun Liu , Md Abdullah Al Mehedi , Jiashu Zhou , Virginia Smith , Chenfeng Xiong
Establishing causal relationships between urban flooding and behavioral responses is challenging in tropical coastal cities experiencing seasonal flooding, where exposure often limits distinct control areas, rainy seasons with inundation episodes complicate discrete treatment timing, and satellite temporal resolution constrains flood tracking. We develop a framework that facilitates causal inference by shifting the unit of analysis from geographic locations to facility types. The framework uses two screening metrics to identify donor categories: Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) for identifying facility types whose visitation patterns exhibit minimal sensitivity to precipitation variability, thereby screening for weather-resilient categories rather than direct flood impacts, and Coefficient of Variation (CV) for assessing temporal stability across flood phases. The framework then integrates these selected donors into a hybrid Synthetic Control-Difference-in-Differences estimator. In Lagos, Nigeria’s June–July 2020 rainy season, the framework integrates Location-Based Services data, ERA5 precipitation reanalysis, Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, and OpenStreetMap infrastructure. Analysis reveals heterogeneity: healthcare visitation increased 40 % during flooding and remained elevated at 51 % above baseline through recovery; transportation declined 22 % with no recovery; retail exhibited post-flood rebounds of 35 %. Effect directions remained consistent across three control specifications (Religious-only, Residential-only, and optimized synthetic control), with the synthetic approach achieving 42–64 % reductions in standard errors relative to fixed controls. The framework provides a systematic approach for impact assessment in data-constrained disaster contexts where spatial controls are limited, and discrete event isolation is constrained by monitoring infrastructure. By using precipitation as a temporally resolved proxy for flood exposure, the framework estimates compound flood-season effects using data increasingly accessible in tropical urban settings.
{"title":"Diagnostic framework for causal inference in seasonal urban flooding: Precipitation-based control selection and synthetic difference-in-differences in Lagos, Nigeria","authors":"Lele Zhang , Xin (Bruce) Wu , Kailun Liu , Md Abdullah Al Mehedi , Jiashu Zhou , Virginia Smith , Chenfeng Xiong","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105993","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105993","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Establishing causal relationships between urban flooding and behavioral responses is challenging in tropical coastal cities experiencing seasonal flooding, where exposure often limits distinct control areas, rainy seasons with inundation episodes complicate discrete treatment timing, and satellite temporal resolution constrains flood tracking. We develop a framework that facilitates causal inference by shifting the unit of analysis from geographic locations to facility types. The framework uses two screening metrics to identify donor categories: Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) for identifying facility types whose visitation patterns exhibit minimal sensitivity to precipitation variability, thereby screening for weather-resilient categories rather than direct flood impacts, and Coefficient of Variation (CV) for assessing temporal stability across flood phases. The framework then integrates these selected donors into a hybrid Synthetic Control-Difference-in-Differences estimator. In Lagos, Nigeria’s June–July 2020 rainy season, the framework integrates Location-Based Services data, ERA5 precipitation reanalysis, Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, and OpenStreetMap infrastructure. Analysis reveals heterogeneity: healthcare visitation increased 40 % during flooding and remained elevated at 51 % above baseline through recovery; transportation declined 22 % with no recovery; retail exhibited post-flood rebounds of 35 %. Effect directions remained consistent across three control specifications (Religious-only, Residential-only, and optimized synthetic control), with the synthetic approach achieving 42–64 % reductions in standard errors relative to fixed controls. The framework provides a systematic approach for impact assessment in data-constrained disaster contexts where spatial controls are limited, and discrete event isolation is constrained by monitoring infrastructure. By using precipitation as a temporally resolved proxy for flood exposure, the framework estimates compound flood-season effects using data increasingly accessible in tropical urban settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105993"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105971
Shereen Altamimi , Liping Fang , Lamya Amleh
Bridges are critical components of ground transportation infrastructure, yet current design provisions remain rooted in historical climate assumptions that diverge sharply from projected future conditions. As climate change progresses, particularly under higher-emission scenarios such as RCP8.5, infrastructure managers require a systematic and quantitative basis for identifying hazards that pose significant risk to bridges and for prioritizing adaptation measures. This study develops and validates an adaptive fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) protocol for deriving climatic hazard importance factors (CHIFs) across a three-tier hierarchy that links four hazards (temperature, wind, rainfall, and ice accretion) to bridge systems and components. Expert judgment was elicited from structural engineers, researchers, and asset managers through a fuzzy pairwise comparison method. For a representative simply supported concrete bridge, rainfall emerged as the most critical hazard (CHIF = 0.35), followed by temperature (0.26), wind (0.22), and ice accretion (0.17). The protocol produces CHIFs not only at the overall bridge level but also at the system and component levels, enabling targeted adaptation strategies—for example, drainage improvements for decks (CHIF = 0.48) and cold-weather sealing for expansion joints (CHIF = 0.34). The methodology offers four key contributions: (1) a replicable, uncertainty-aware framework for multi-hazard weighting applicable to any geographic context, (2) quantitative inputs for revising Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code load combinations, (3) decision support for prioritizing the rehabilitation of climate-vulnerable components, and (4) network-level asset ranking to guide limited adaptation budgets. By translating expert insight into scale-ready metrics, the protocol bridges the gap between climate projections and engineering decision-making.
{"title":"Identifying climatic hazard importance factors for bridges using expert-based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process","authors":"Shereen Altamimi , Liping Fang , Lamya Amleh","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105971","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105971","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Bridges are critical components of ground transportation infrastructure, yet current design provisions remain rooted in historical climate assumptions that diverge sharply from projected future conditions. As climate change progresses, particularly under higher-emission scenarios such as RCP8.5, infrastructure managers require a systematic and quantitative basis for identifying hazards that pose significant risk to bridges and for prioritizing adaptation measures. This study develops and validates an adaptive fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) protocol for deriving climatic hazard importance factors (CHIFs) across a three-tier hierarchy that links four hazards (temperature, wind, rainfall, and ice accretion) to bridge systems and components. Expert judgment was elicited from structural engineers, researchers, and asset managers through a fuzzy pairwise comparison method. For a representative simply supported concrete bridge, rainfall emerged as the most critical hazard (CHIF = 0.35), followed by temperature (0.26), wind (0.22), and ice accretion (0.17). The protocol produces CHIFs not only at the overall bridge level but also at the system and component levels, enabling targeted adaptation strategies—for example, drainage improvements for decks (CHIF = 0.48) and cold-weather sealing for expansion joints (CHIF = 0.34). The methodology offers four key contributions: (1) a replicable, uncertainty-aware framework for multi-hazard weighting applicable to any geographic context, (2) quantitative inputs for revising Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code load combinations, (3) decision support for prioritizing the rehabilitation of climate-vulnerable components, and (4) network-level asset ranking to guide limited adaptation budgets. By translating expert insight into scale-ready metrics, the protocol bridges the gap between climate projections and engineering decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105971"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines a peer leadership approach by a disability representative organisation in Australia, designed to enhance individualised support for members and improve systemic advocacy efforts. Our research objective was to explore the structure, roles, leadership qualities, and benefits of disability-led peer support groups as part of a broader participatory action research program examining disability leadership and its application in Disability Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction (DIDRR). Structured interviews were conducted with 14 peer leaders from established groups, with reflexive thematic analysis applied to interpret the data. The research identified transformational leadership qualities within the peer support model, including a shared purpose, mentoring, and supportive connections. Leaders fostered inclusivity, facilitating information sharing and community bonding. Notably, the deliberate use of curiosity and joint exploration emerged as a key method for building confidence among less-heard members, turning the disability representative organisation into a dynamic learning hub that integrates grassroots insights to enhance disability-inclusive programs and advocacy strategies. The study highlights the effectiveness of transformational leadership in disability peer support groups, offering insights into peer leadership dynamics and its potential to advance DIDRR. Further research could expand its application, transforming disaster preparedness and response strategies to be more inclusive and effective.
{"title":"Disability leadership and the future of inclusive disaster risk reduction","authors":"Michelle Villeneuve , Damian Mellifont , Liala Cadelli , Ivy Yen , Michelle Moss","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105927","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105927","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines a peer leadership approach by a disability representative organisation in Australia, designed to enhance individualised support for members and improve systemic advocacy efforts. Our research objective was to explore the structure, roles, leadership qualities, and benefits of disability-led peer support groups as part of a broader participatory action research program examining disability leadership and its application in Disability Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction (DIDRR). Structured interviews were conducted with 14 peer leaders from established groups, with reflexive thematic analysis applied to interpret the data. The research identified transformational leadership qualities within the peer support model, including a shared purpose, mentoring, and supportive connections. Leaders fostered inclusivity, facilitating information sharing and community bonding. Notably, the deliberate use of curiosity and joint exploration emerged as a key method for building confidence among less-heard members, turning the disability representative organisation into a dynamic learning hub that integrates grassroots insights to enhance disability-inclusive programs and advocacy strategies. The study highlights the effectiveness of transformational leadership in disability peer support groups, offering insights into peer leadership dynamics and its potential to advance DIDRR. Further research could expand its application, transforming disaster preparedness and response strategies to be more inclusive and effective.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105927"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145616556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105793
Mohammad Farid , Nadira Tsamara Dewi , Eka Oktariyanto Nugroho , Mohammad Bagus Adityawan , Abdul Kadir Alhamid , Ahmad Nur Wahid , Willy Cahyadhiputra Gunawan , Jovian Javas , Muhamad Farhan Permana
Flooding is the most frequent disaster in Indonesia, accounting for 43.1 % of the total national disaster events in 2022. Mitigation efforts have primarily focused on structural protection, such as the construction of embankments, aimed at reducing the probability of flood hazards. However, this approach has limitations as it does not consider aspects of exposure, vulnerability, and the risk of infrastructure failure. The fragility curve is one method that can assess the risk of building damage due to flooding. This probabilistic approach describes the relationship between flood intensity and building damage probability. Although fragility curves have been widely applied globally, research on their application in Indonesia's flooding context is still minimal due to the lack of empirical data, making it challenging to build localized functions. This study aims to perform probabilistic flood risk assessment based on a developed empirical fragility curve suited to the characteristics of buildings in Indonesia, focusing on a case study of a flood event caused by the collapse of the Cikapundung River embankment in Citeureup Village, Dayeuhkolot District, Bandung Regency, on January 11, 2024. Using a probabilistic approach, this study analyzes the resilience of buildings to flooding based on empirical data. The hazard map analysis results show that Kampung Lamajang Peuntas has the highest flood threat level. Minor damage (DS 1) is the most dominant, resulting in higher cumulative losses compared to moderate (DS 2) or major (DS 3) damage. The probability of failure reaches 50 % at a water depth of >1.2 m for DS 1, >1.4 m for DS 2, and >1.5 m for DS 3. If the embankment fails, hydrodynamic forces and carried materials accelerate damage, increasing the risk of building collapse, particularly in water depths ≥2 m. Mitigation efforts focus on reducing minor damage, which has the most significant long-term financial impact. Routine maintenance becomes the primary strategy to reduce cumulative damage risk. This study fills the gap in the literature on fragility curves for flooding in Indonesia and serves as an initial step in their development according to local building typology. The results are expected to serve as a foundation for future research, building damage risk analysis, and more effective mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of flooding in the future.
{"title":"Development of an empirical flood fragility curve for levee failure and its application in probabilistic flood risk assessment: A case study of Citeureup Village, Indonesia","authors":"Mohammad Farid , Nadira Tsamara Dewi , Eka Oktariyanto Nugroho , Mohammad Bagus Adityawan , Abdul Kadir Alhamid , Ahmad Nur Wahid , Willy Cahyadhiputra Gunawan , Jovian Javas , Muhamad Farhan Permana","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105793","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105793","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flooding is the most frequent disaster in Indonesia, accounting for 43.1 % of the total national disaster events in 2022. Mitigation efforts have primarily focused on structural protection, such as the construction of embankments, aimed at reducing the probability of flood hazards. However, this approach has limitations as it does not consider aspects of exposure, vulnerability, and the risk of infrastructure failure. The fragility curve is one method that can assess the risk of building damage due to flooding. This probabilistic approach describes the relationship between flood intensity and building damage probability. Although fragility curves have been widely applied globally, research on their application in Indonesia's flooding context is still minimal due to the lack of empirical data, making it challenging to build localized functions. This study aims to perform probabilistic flood risk assessment based on a developed empirical fragility curve suited to the characteristics of buildings in Indonesia, focusing on a case study of a flood event caused by the collapse of the Cikapundung River embankment in Citeureup Village, Dayeuhkolot District, Bandung Regency, on January 11, 2024. Using a probabilistic approach, this study analyzes the resilience of buildings to flooding based on empirical data. The hazard map analysis results show that Kampung Lamajang Peuntas has the highest flood threat level. Minor damage (DS 1) is the most dominant, resulting in higher cumulative losses compared to moderate (DS 2) or major (DS 3) damage. The probability of failure reaches 50 % at a water depth of >1.2 m for DS 1, >1.4 m for DS 2, and >1.5 m for DS 3. If the embankment fails, hydrodynamic forces and carried materials accelerate damage, increasing the risk of building collapse, particularly in water depths ≥2 m. Mitigation efforts focus on reducing minor damage, which has the most significant long-term financial impact. Routine maintenance becomes the primary strategy to reduce cumulative damage risk. This study fills the gap in the literature on fragility curves for flooding in Indonesia and serves as an initial step in their development according to local building typology. The results are expected to serve as a foundation for future research, building damage risk analysis, and more effective mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of flooding in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105793"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145616559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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