International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第7页

Post-earthquake medical service function evaluation and recovery optimization based on discrete event simulation 基于离散事件模拟的震后医疗服务功能评价与恢复优化

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105902

Mingyuan Zhang, Jie Chen, Xiaoli Liu

Hospitals are key systems for post-earthquake emergency treatment. However, they are prone to severe damage during earthquakes, affecting the medical service function. This study evaluates the dynamic evolution of hospital medical service function after an earthquake and proposes recovery strategies to enhance this function based on the discrete event simulation (DES) method. First, considering the damage to non-structural components, pipe systems, and medical equipment, a fault tree analysis (FTA) for critical hospital departments and wards is established, and a vulnerability analysis is conducted to assess the availability of departments and wards under different earthquake scenarios. Second, a DES model is constructed, encompassing four modules: patient triage module, treatment process module, resources allocation module and hospital repair module. The dynamic changes of the medical service function after the earthquake are simulated and assessed. Finally, considering two functional indicators of waiting time and treatment completion rate, a hospital department and ward repair sequence optimization model under resource constraints is constructed, and the NSGA-II algorithm is applied to solve for the optimal strategy. This method has been validated in a real hospital in China. The results show that damage to non-structural components, pipe systems, and medical equipment significantly impacts department and ward availability. Moreover, prioritizing the repair of critical departments and wards such as emergency departments and ICUs can significantly improve treatment efficiency and reduce waiting time, thereby enhancing the hospital's overall service function. This study provides theoretical support for post-earthquake hospital emergency response and recovery strategies, aiming to strengthen its service function.

医院是震后应急救治的关键系统。但在地震中容易受到严重破坏，影响医疗服务功能。本研究基于离散事件模拟（DES）方法，评估地震后医院医疗服务功能的动态演变，并提出增强医院医疗服务功能的恢复策略。首先，考虑非结构构件、管道系统和医疗设备的损坏，建立医院关键科室和病房的故障树分析（FTA），并进行易损性分析，评估不同地震情景下科室和病房的可用性。其次，构建了DES模型，包括患者分诊模块、治疗流程模块、资源分配模块和医院修复模块四个模块。模拟和评估了地震后医疗服务功能的动态变化。最后，考虑候诊时间和治疗完成率两个功能指标，构建了资源约束下的医院科室和病房修复顺序优化模型，并应用NSGA-II算法求解最优策略。该方法已在国内一家实际医院得到验证。结果表明，非结构部件、管道系统和医疗设备的损坏严重影响了科室和病房的可用性。优先修复急诊科、icu等危重科室和病房，可以显著提高治疗效率，减少候诊时间，从而增强医院的整体服务功能。本研究为地震灾后医院应急响应与恢复策略提供理论支持，旨在增强其服务功能。

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引用次数: 0

Managing cascading effects – Regional water sustainability from a crisis management perspective 管理级联效应-从危机管理的角度看区域水的可持续性

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105899

Danielle Carbon, Till Wenzel

Cascading effects of water stress - understood as sequential failures in interdependent natural, infrastructural, and institutional systems - increasingly challenge crisis management, particularly amid intensifying droughts and growing demand for water-intensive emergency operations. Despite rising awareness of sustainable water management, a disconnect persists between sustainability principles and their application in emergency settings - where actions may unintentionally trigger or exacerbate cascading effects.

To explore this, an exploratory survey of 44 German civil protection practitioners was conducted. Participants (e.g., fire brigade, ambulance service, Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW)) were selected for their decision-making authority in water-intensive operations such as firefighting or emergency water treatment. The study assessed awareness of cascading effects and examined current approaches to manage water-intensive operations. It focused on perceptions of the water-emergency operations interplay, types of information used in decisions (e.g., real-time GIS data), and systemic barriers to sustainable management.

Findings show that sustainable water use is only marginally considered in civil protection. Standard procedures for integrating long-term recovery or water resource considerations are mostly lacking, and coordination across responsible institutions is fragmented. Tools to predict cascading effects or to support sustainable decisions under time pressure are also insufficient.

Nonetheless, respondents showed general awareness of the issue's relevance. They emphasized that raising awareness and improving coordination are key first steps toward more sustainable operational response strategies. These could contribute to developing a Water Governance Framework where civil protection is recognized as a significant water demanding sector.

水压力的级联效应——被理解为相互依赖的自然、基础设施和体制系统相继失效——日益挑战危机管理，特别是在干旱加剧和对用水密集型紧急行动需求日益增加的情况下。尽管人们对可持续水管理的认识不断提高，但可持续原则与其在紧急情况下的应用之间仍然存在脱节——在紧急情况下采取的行动可能无意中引发或加剧级联效应。为此，我们对44名德国民防从业人员进行了一项探索性调查。选择参与者（例如消防队、救护车服务、联邦技术救济署）是因为他们在诸如消防或紧急水处理等用水密集型行动中的决策权。这项研究评估了人们对级联效应的认识，并审查了目前管理用水密集型作业的方法。它侧重于对水应急行动相互作用的认识、决策中使用的信息类型（例如实时地理信息系统数据）以及可持续管理的系统性障碍。研究结果表明，可持续用水在民事保护中只被边缘化。整合长期恢复或水资源考虑因素的标准程序大多缺乏，各负责机构之间的协调支离破碎。预测级联效应或在时间压力下支持可持续决策的工具也不足。尽管如此，受访者普遍意识到这个问题的相关性。他们强调，提高认识和改善协调是实现更可持续的业务反应战略的关键第一步。这将有助于制定一个水治理框架，在这个框架中，民事保护被认为是一个重要的用水需求部门。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of urban gray infrastructure on urban flooding: a city-scale drainage and surface water modeling framework 城市灰色基础设施对城市洪水的影响：一个城市尺度的排水和地表水模型框架

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105907

Haojie Chen, Jacqueline Tsz Yin Lo

Addressing urban floods is an escalating concern owing to the rising incidence of heavy precipitation events and the intricacies of urban drainage and hydrodynamics. This study introduces an advanced city-scale urban flood modeling framework that dynamically integrates the role of gray infrastructure (e.g., roads, buildings, and drainage systems) and real-time storage dynamics in urban drainage networks. The framework features innovative dual-mode flow equations for inlet systems—capturing both surface water inflow and drainage over spillage—alongside a dynamic storage model that adapts to real-time mass balance constraints. When applied to the Hong Kong case study, the proposed model demonstrates high predictive accuracy, as validated against historical flood records from the extreme rainfall event in September 2023 and Sentinel-1 satellite observations. The model yields a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 14 % in spatial inundation mapping. The results reveal the critical role of gray infrastructure and drainage system design in shaping urban flood dynamics, offering insights into low pipe utilization, inlet density effects, and the efficacy of drainage tunnels in flood mitigation. Specifically, drainage tunnels are shown to reduce pipe stress and flood depths by up to 30 %, underscoring their importance in urban flood management strategies. These findings provide quantitative tools and practical guidance for planners and hydrologists aiming to develop flood-resilient infrastructure.

由于强降水事件的发生率不断上升以及城市排水和水动力学的复杂性，解决城市洪水问题日益受到关注。本研究引入了一种先进的城市尺度城市洪水建模框架，该框架动态集成了灰色基础设施（如道路、建筑物和排水系统）的作用以及城市排水网络中的实时存储动态。该框架具有创新的进口系统双模流动方程-捕获地表水流入和溢出的排水-以及适应实时质量平衡约束的动态存储模型。当应用于香港个案研究时，该模式显示出较高的预测准确度，并与2023年9月极端降雨事件的历史洪水记录和Sentinel-1卫星观测结果相比较。该模型在空间淹没制图中的平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）为14%。研究结果揭示了灰色基础设施和排水系统设计在塑造城市洪水动态方面的关键作用，为低管道利用率、入口密度效应和排水隧道在防洪方面的功效提供了见解。具体而言，排水隧道被证明可以减少管道应力和洪水深度高达30%，强调了它们在城市洪水管理策略中的重要性。这些发现为旨在开发抗洪基础设施的规划者和水文学家提供了定量工具和实用指导。

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引用次数: 0

Leveraging social assistance networks for enhanced disaster response logistics 利用社会援助网络加强救灾后勤

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105906

Feizar Rueda-Velasco , Johanna Amaya , Miguel Jaller

In this exploratory study, Social Assistance Networks (SANs), adapted from existing Social Assistance Programs (SAPs), are proposed as a new Disaster Response Logistics Structure (DRLS) to improve the efficiency of relief operations. The authors develop and test a framework to evaluate the potential of SANs to function as DRLSs by analyzing their logistical and social integration capabilities. Two case studies, Bienestarina in Colombia and LICONSA in Mexico, are examined to assess their adaptability, capability, and effectiveness in disaster scenarios. The findings indicate that SANs offer a highly integrated social network embedded within communities, capable of efficiently distributing relief supplies. Their networks accrue significant logistical capacity and social cohesion, making them a valuable resource during the disaster response phase. This research highlights the minimal adaptation required for SANs to serve as DRLSs, reducing the burden on relief agencies and improving the coordination of the response efforts. By leveraging the established infrastructure and social connections of SAPs, SANs can effectively bridge the gap between supply sources and affected communities, ensuring timely and equitable distribution of aid. The study underscores the importance of social justice in resilience contexts. It confirms that integrating SANs into preparedness and response plans enhances resilience and mitigates the impacts of disasters on vulnerable communities. This is the first study that explores the connection and potential of integrating social programs into official relief efforts. Its innovative approach presents a promising solution to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of humanitarian logistics, ultimately contributing to risk reduction, effective disaster management, and improved relief outcomes.

本研究以社会援助计划（SAPs）为基础，提出社会援助网络（SANs）作为一种新的灾害响应物流结构（DRLS），以提高救援行动的效率。作者开发并测试了一个框架，通过分析san的后勤和社会集成能力来评估san作为DRLSs的潜力。研究了哥伦比亚Bienestarina和墨西哥LICONSA两个案例，以评估它们在灾难情景中的适应性、能力和有效性。研究结果表明，SANs提供了一个嵌入社区的高度整合的社会网络，能够有效地分配救援物资。他们的网络积累了巨大的后勤能力和社会凝聚力，使他们成为灾害反应阶段的宝贵资源。这项研究强调了SANs作为DRLSs所需的最小适应，减轻了救济机构的负担并改善了响应工作的协调。通过利用已建立的基础设施和sap的社会联系，SANs可以有效地弥合供应来源和受影响社区之间的差距，确保及时和公平地分配援助。这项研究强调了社会正义在复原力背景下的重要性。报告证实，将SANs纳入备灾和响应计划可以增强复原力，减轻灾害对脆弱社区的影响。这是第一个探索将社会项目整合到官方救援工作中的联系和潜力的研究。它的创新方法为提高人道主义物流的效率和有效性提供了一个有希望的解决方案，最终有助于降低风险、有效管理灾害和改善救济成果。

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引用次数: 0

Integrated evolutionary optimisation framework for explicit configuration of detention ponds in urban flood risk management 城市洪水风险管理中蓄水池显式配置的集成进化优化框架

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105901

Asid Ur Rehman , Vassilis Glenis , Elizabeth Lewis , Chris Kilsby , Claire Walsh

Semi-distributed hydrodynamic models combined with optimisation methods are often proposed for cost-effective pond designs, but typically oversimplify pond representation, neglecting complex urban catchment dynamics. This study addresses these limitations by introducing an integrated optimisation framework that couples a fully distributed hydrodynamic flood model with a Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II). The fully distributed approach explicitly captures spatio-temporal surface flow dynamics across a high-resolution computational grid for the catchment, enhancing pond location screening and its subsequent representation in hydrodynamic simulations for flood risk reduction. The optimisation process adjusts locations and sizes to minimise direct damage cost (DDC) and expected annual damage (EAD) relative to pond life cycle cost (LCC), evaluated across 100-year and composite storm scenarios. An enhanced use of standard and marginal benefit-cost ratio (BCR) metrics identifies a set of high-performing solutions from the composite Pareto front. Results indicate ponds near flood receptors are generally more effective, while the optimisation for a 60-min storm achieves significantly higher damage reduction than a 30-min event when evaluated for a 100-year storm. In the 60-min composite storm optimisation, the high-performing solution that achieves the greatest damage reduction requires only ∼37 % of the designed storage capacity for the current study, highlighting efficient resource allocation by the optimisation and solution selection framework. This study demonstrates the critical importance of fully distributed modelling integrated with evolutionary optimisation methods in accurately assessing the location and size of detention ponds, offering urban planners and decision-makers a robust, practical tool for designing cost-effective and resilient flood risk management strategies.

结合优化方法的半分布式水动力模型经常被用于经济高效的池塘设计，但通常过于简化了池塘的表示，忽略了复杂的城市集水区动态。本研究通过引入一个集成的优化框架来解决这些限制，该框架将完全分布式的水动力洪水模型与非主导排序遗传算法（NSGA-II）相结合。这种完全分布式的方法通过高分辨率计算网格明确地捕捉了集水区的时空地表流动动力学，增强了池塘位置筛选及其随后在水动力学模拟中的表现，从而降低了洪水风险。优化过程调整位置和大小，以最小化直接损害成本（DDC）和相对于池塘生命周期成本（LCC）的预期年损害（EAD），评估了100年和复合风暴情景。增强标准和边际效益成本比（BCR）指标的使用，从复合Pareto前沿确定了一组高性能解决方案。结果表明，靠近洪水受体的池塘通常更有效，而在评估100年风暴时，60分钟风暴的优化效果明显高于30分钟事件的损害减少。在60分钟的复合风暴优化中，实现最大损害减少的高性能解决方案仅需要当前研究中设计存储容量的约37%，突出了优化和解决方案选择框架的有效资源分配。该研究表明，在准确评估蓄水池的位置和大小方面，完全分布式建模与进化优化方法相结合至关重要，为城市规划者和决策者提供了一个强大的实用工具，用于设计具有成本效益和弹性的洪水风险管理策略。

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引用次数: 0

Advancing earthquake disaster management with earth observation data: from Copernicus gaps and challenges to requirements for tailored national-scale applications 利用地球观测数据推进地震灾害管理：从哥白尼差距和挑战到量身定制的国家规模应用需求

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105903

Chiara Casarotti, Ilaria E. Senaldi

Earth Observation data, which provides rapid, large-scale assessments of disaster impact, plays a crucial role in managing seismic emergencies. Starting with an analysis of gaps and challenges within the current institutional European Copernicus program offer, and building on previous extensive work conducted under the Italian Copernicus User Forum to define general requirements from a user-driven perspective, this study aims to further refine product requirements for developing tailored national-scale services. By outlining the need for a structured approach to define product standards, validation strategies, and prioritization frameworks, the objective is to establish a solid foundation for the development of added-value services - particularly within the context of Italy's IRIDE program initiative - thereby enhancing product exploitation and usability for institutional decision-making. The requirements are analysed with their final objectives in mind, exploring opportunities to integrate EO-based products with ancillary datasets, numerical models, in situ observations, and leveraging relevant specialized expertise, promoting a cohesive environment for a holistic design of future constellations downstream services.

地球观测数据提供快速、大规模的灾害影响评估，在管理地震紧急情况方面发挥着关键作用。本研究从分析当前欧洲哥白尼计划提供的差距和挑战开始，并以意大利哥白尼用户论坛开展的从用户驱动的角度定义一般需求的广泛工作为基础，旨在进一步完善产品需求，以开发量身定制的国家规模服务。通过概述定义产品标准、验证策略和优先级框架的结构化方法的需求，目标是为增值服务的发展奠定坚实的基础-特别是在意大利IRIDE计划倡议的背景下-从而提高产品的开发和机构决策的可用性。根据最终目标对需求进行分析，探索将基于eo的产品与辅助数据集、数值模型、现场观测相结合的机会，并利用相关的专业知识，促进未来星座下游服务整体设计的凝聚力环境。

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引用次数: 0

Policy gaps and urban flooding: A critical evaluation of flash flood risk management and resilience in Amman, Jordan 政策缺口和城市洪水：对约旦安曼山洪暴发风险管理和复原力的关键评估

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105896

Nermeen Dalgamoni , Mysaa Khwaileh

Climate change intensifies pre-existing development challenges, such as poverty and food insecurity, and contributes to the increased frequency and severity of natural hazards. In recent years, Downtown Amman has experienced a marked increase in the frequency and intensity of flash floods, resulting in increased human, environmental, and economic losses. Despite the existence of several policies aimed at managing flash floods, the implementation of these frameworks faces significant challenges. This study evaluates the capacity of flash flood risk management policies in Jordan to enhance environmental resilience in Downtown Amman. This research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining content analysis of national flood policies, interviews with institutional stakeholders, and a standardized questionnaire administered to Downtown Amman residents and store owners to examine flood experiences, perceived vulnerability, satisfaction with governmental responses, and awareness of resilience measures within the broader flood risk governance framework.

Findings reveal that while policymakers have undertaken notable initiatives to improve flood mitigation, progress remains constrained by financial limitations and structural obstacles. The analysis highlights a predominant emphasis on the preparedness phase of flood management, with insufficient integration of response, recovery, and long-term adaptation measures. Additional barriers include weak institutional oversight, limited stakeholder engagement, and a shortage of specialized expertise in policy implementation. This study critiques flood management frameworks, identifies institutional and operational shortcomings, and assesses policies’ contributions to environmental resilience, informing reforms and capacity-building in Jordan. The study advances global DRR by framing enforcement shortfalls as political-economy failure and detailing NBS scale via codified design, ring-fenced O&M, and risk-based inspection.

气候变化加剧了已有的发展挑战，如贫困和粮食不安全，并加剧了自然灾害的频率和严重程度。近年来，安曼市中心发生山洪的频率和强度显著增加，造成了更多的人员、环境和经济损失。尽管存在一些旨在管理山洪暴发的政策，但这些框架的实施面临重大挑战。本研究评估了约旦的山洪风险管理政策在提高安曼市中心环境恢复力方面的能力。本研究采用混合方法，结合对国家洪水政策的内容分析、对机构利益相关者的访谈，以及对安曼市中心居民和店主进行的标准化问卷调查，以考察洪水经历、感知脆弱性、对政府应对措施的满意度以及对更广泛的洪水风险治理框架内抗灾措施的认识。调查结果显示，虽然决策者已经采取了显著的举措来改善洪水缓解，但进展仍然受到资金限制和结构性障碍的制约。该分析强调了主要强调洪水管理的准备阶段，缺乏对响应、恢复和长期适应措施的整合。其他障碍包括机构监督薄弱、利益相关者参与有限以及缺乏政策实施方面的专门知识。本研究对洪水管理框架进行了批评，确定了体制和操作上的缺陷，并评估了政策对环境恢复力的贡献，为约旦的改革和能力建设提供了信息。该研究通过将执法不足视为政治经济失败，并通过编纂设计、围栏管理和基于风险的检查详细说明国家统计局规模，推进了全球DRR。

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引用次数: 0

A novel probabilistic method for assessing the seismic resilience of subway systems across four dimensions 一种评估地铁系统四维抗震弹性的新概率方法

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105898

Jun Song, Huiquan Miao, Zilan Zhong, Mi Zhao, Xiuli Du

Given the limitations of existing single-dimensional resilience assessments, this study proposes a novel probabilistic method across four dimensions to assess the seismic resilience of subway systems. Specifically, a population heatmap-based approach is employed to estimate the distribution of passenger flow, overcoming the constraints of traditional network connectivity analysis and enabling a comprehensive assessment of system function. First, the subway system is modeled, and an origin-destination (OD) matrix prediction model based on population heatmaps is constructed. Second, dimension-specific metrics are formulated to evaluate the system function. Third, spatial variations in ground motion are incorporated to define seismic scenarios, followed by simulation of post-earthquake states using the Monte Carlo method. Finally, the recovery process is simulated, and the system's resilience is quantitatively assessed. Application of the method to the Beijing subway system reveals substantial disparities across dimensions, with the technical dimension exhibiting the highest seismic resilience (Resilience Index, RI = 0.966) and the organizational dimension the lowest (RI = 0.856). Comparative analysis of recovery strategies indicates that the dynamic importance-based strategy effectively balances recovery effectiveness and computational efficiency, demonstrating superior performance relative to other strategies. This method offers a comprehensive framework for assessing subway system seismic resilience and guiding post-earthquake recovery decisions.

鉴于现有的单维度弹性评估的局限性，本研究提出了一种新的跨四个维度的概率方法来评估地铁系统的地震弹性。具体而言，采用基于人口热图的方法来估计客流分布，克服了传统网络连通性分析的局限性，实现了对系统功能的综合评估。首先，对地铁系统进行建模，构建基于人口热图的OD矩阵预测模型；其次，制定了特定维度的度量来评估系统功能。第三，结合地面运动的空间变化来定义地震情景，然后使用蒙特卡罗方法模拟震后状态。最后，对恢复过程进行了模拟，定量评价了系统的恢复能力。将该方法应用于北京地铁系统，发现各维度之间存在较大差异，其中技术维度的抗震回弹性最高（弹性指数，RI = 0.966），组织维度的抗震回弹性最低（RI = 0.856）。对恢复策略的对比分析表明，基于动态重要性的策略有效地平衡了恢复效率和计算效率，表现出优于其他策略的性能。该方法为地铁系统抗震弹性评估和震后恢复决策提供了综合框架。

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引用次数: 0

Combining physical and social indicators in a multi-vulnerability framework for fire risk assessment: An application to Valparaíso, Chile 在火灾风险评估的多脆弱性框架中结合物理和社会指标：Valparaíso，智利的应用

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105900

Pilar Baquedano-Juliá , Tiago Miguel Ferreira , Camilo Arriagada-Luco , Cristián Sandoval , Nuria Chiara Palazzi , Marcela Hurtado , Daniel V. Oliveira

Over the years, global concern regarding fire prevention in historic urban areas has grown considerably. These areas possess significant cultural, urban, architectural, and social value, but also exhibit a range of intrinsic characteristics that render them highly prone to fire ignition and propagation, thereby posing significant challenges for fire control. Valparaíso, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, is one of the best examples of this: its historic area lies between the bay and a series of hills, forming a unique configuration of buildings, stairways, roads, and lifts. The area's vulnerability is exacerbated by a high fire load associated with construction materials, a dense concentration of buildings, and sloping terrain that is particularly exposed to prevailing winds. Additionally, the narrow configuration of the urban street layout adds further complexity to firefighting operations and hinders the evacuation of affected individuals. In light of these challenges, there is a clear need for comprehensive and context-sensitive tools that can effectively assess and communicate fire risk in such complex urban environments. This paper aims to contribute to filling this gap by introducing an integrated approach to fire risk assessment of historic urban centres, innovatively incorporating and combining physical and social dimensions. Two index-based methodologies are proposed, underpinned by an analysis of Census data at the block level – an approach that is rarely explored in existing literature. The outcomes of these indices are consolidated into a prioritisation matrix that is applied to categorise the city blocks into five priority levels. A Geographic Information System (GIS) tool is subsequently employed to spatially visualise and map the risk classification results.

多年来，全球对历史城区防火的关注大大增加。这些地区具有重要的文化、城市、建筑和社会价值，但也表现出一系列的内在特征，使它们极易起火和传播，从而对火灾控制提出了重大挑战。被联合国教科文组织列为世界遗产的Valparaíso就是最好的例子之一：它的历史区域位于海湾和一系列山丘之间，形成了独特的建筑、楼梯、道路和电梯结构。该地区的脆弱性因建筑材料的高火灾负荷、建筑物的密集集中以及特别容易受到盛行风影响的倾斜地形而加剧。此外，狭窄的城市街道布局进一步增加了消防行动的复杂性，并阻碍了受影响人员的疏散。鉴于这些挑战，显然需要一种全面的、对环境敏感的工具，以便在如此复杂的城市环境中有效地评估和传达火灾风险。本文旨在通过引入一种综合方法来对历史城市中心进行火灾风险评估，创新地将物理和社会层面结合起来，从而填补这一空白。提出了两种基于指数的方法，并以对街区一级的人口普查数据的分析为基础——这种方法在现有文献中很少探索。这些指数的结果被合并成一个优先级矩阵，用于将城市街区划分为五个优先级。随后使用地理信息系统（GIS）工具对风险分类结果进行空间可视化和映射。

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引用次数: 0

A methodology for selecting optimal seismic risk mitigation strategies for the Italian residential masonry built heritage 意大利住宅砌体建筑遗产选择最佳地震风险缓解策略的方法

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105897

Pietro Carpanese, Veronica Follador, Marco Donà, Francesca da Porto

Italy is one of the most seismically active countries in Europe, with a long history of destructive earthquakes that have caused significant human and economic losses. The country's extensive stock of unreinforced masonry buildings, many of which are residential and of historical value, is particularly vulnerable to seismic events. In recent decades, the Italian government has faced major costs associated with earthquake damage, highlighting the urgent need for the definition of comprehensive seismic risk mitigation strategies. This study presents an integrated approach to identify optimal seismic risk mitigation strategies for the residential masonry building stock in Italy. By developing and applying fragility models for both as-built and retrofitted buildings, the research assesses the effectiveness of possible strengthening techniques. The study also incorporates a cost model for the selected interventions, enabling cost-benefit analyses to assess their feasibility at a territorial scale, based on the expected direct economic losses from structural damage. The payback time of the initial investment for the intervention is computed, and by combining the cost-effectiveness of the intervention with the increase of building performance, different strategies to select the best interventions at municipal level have been elaborated. This work thus provides policymakers with a methodology to prioritize seismic retrofitting at a territorial scale, to boost the execution of interventions and enhance the overall seismic resilience of the Italian building stock.

意大利是欧洲地震最活跃的国家之一，具有悠久的破坏性地震历史，造成了重大的人员和经济损失。该国大量的未经加固的砖石建筑，其中许多是住宅和具有历史价值的建筑，特别容易受到地震事件的影响。近几十年来，意大利政府面临着与地震损害相关的重大成本，这突出表明迫切需要制定全面的减轻地震风险战略。本研究提出了一种综合方法来确定意大利住宅砌体建筑库存的最佳地震风险缓解策略。通过开发和应用已建成和改造建筑的脆弱性模型，本研究评估了可能的加固技术的有效性。该研究还纳入了选定干预措施的成本模型，使成本效益分析能够根据结构破坏造成的预期直接经济损失，评估其在领土范围内的可行性。计算了干预措施的初始投资回报时间，并将干预措施的成本效益与建筑性能的提高相结合，阐述了在市政层面选择最佳干预措施的不同策略。因此，这项工作为政策制定者提供了一种在区域尺度上优先考虑抗震改造的方法，以促进干预措施的执行，并提高意大利建筑的整体抗震能力。

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