International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第2页

Enhancing residual flood risk assessment through response capacity quantification: Case study of the Sefidroud river, Iran 通过响应能力量化加强剩余洪水风险评估：以伊朗塞菲德鲁德河为例

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106019

Khabat Amani, Seiyed Mossa Hosseini

This study develops a response-adjusted flood risk assessment framework that incorporates physical accessibility to emergency services as a first approximation of community mitigation capacity. The framework is applied to three reaches of the Sefidroud River in northwestern Iran, a region frequently affected by severe flooding. Flood hazard was estimated using the HEC-RAS hydraulic model by integrating water depth and flow velocity across return periods from 2 to 1000 years, while vulnerability was assessed by overlaying land-use exposure with flood damage functions. A response factor—based on proximity to ten critical infrastructures including transport routes, emergency facilities, and healthcare services—was used to represent the accessible component of response capacity in a data-scarce setting. The resulting hydraulic simulations were validated qualitatively against available geomorphological evidence, as quantitative flood-extent data for these extreme return periods was not available. Incorporating this factor reduced the residual risk by approximately 7 % for the 100-year flood and 1 % for the 1000-year flood, indicating the limited moderating influence of local accessibility under extreme events. This work demonstrates how response-related indicators can be integrated into the conventional hazard–exposure–vulnerability paradigm, and outlines a pathway for expanding the framework to include broader social and institutional dimensions in future research.

本研究开发了一个响应调整的洪水风险评估框架，该框架将应急服务的物理可及性作为社区减灾能力的初步近似值。该框架应用于伊朗西北部塞菲德鲁德河的三个河段，该地区经常受到严重洪水的影响。利用HEC-RAS水力模型，通过综合2 - 1000年汛期的水深和流速来估计洪水危害，而通过将土地利用暴露与洪水破坏函数叠加来评估脆弱性。在数据匮乏的情况下，响应因子是基于对10个关键基础设施（包括运输路线、应急设施和医疗服务）的接近程度来表示响应能力的可访问部分。由于没有这些极端回归期的定量洪水范围数据，因此根据现有的地貌证据，对所得的水力模拟进行了定性验证。考虑到这一因素，100年洪水的剩余风险降低了约7%，1000年洪水的剩余风险降低了1%，表明极端事件下当地可达性的调节作用有限。这项工作展示了如何将与响应相关的指标整合到传统的危险暴露-脆弱性范式中，并概述了在未来的研究中扩展框架以包括更广泛的社会和制度维度的途径。

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引用次数: 0

Vertical vulnerability and exposure of people in the context of disaster risk at the building, city and regional level 在建筑、城市和区域层面的灾害风险背景下，人们的垂直脆弱性和暴露

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106020

Alexander Fekete

Vulnerability in the context of disaster risk is widely analysed in terms of the horizontal distribution of people and social groups, as well as their features and capabilities. However, vertical distributions are not yet well-researched, as a systematic literature scoping review finds. Power relations and hierarchies are analysed in existing studies, as are other effects of vertical separation within groups, including disease transmission, inequalities within hierarchies, and the capacities of social capital. An additional re-analysis of field studies reveals additional important aspects that need to be considered in vertical vulnerability studies: people killed by floods in underground garages, evacuation problems for buildings with elevators, slopes and foothills, affected by flash floods, and mud flows, or accessibility to neighbourhoods being hampered by the debris of collapsed buildings in earthquakes. The study proposes a more thorough and systematic investigation of the vertical aspects of people's vulnerability, including their social and physical characteristics, as well as those of social groups. It outlines conceptual schematics, helping to identify this at the building, city and regional level. This will improve the conceptual quality of vulnerability and disaster risk research by explicitly emphasising the vertical dimensions of location and place-based context. It will also inform future urban planning efforts to enhance safety, health, and disaster risk management. It will also enable more effective evacuation and rescue of people from buildings and affected terrain in cities or rural areas.

从人口和社会群体的横向分布及其特征和能力的角度广泛分析了灾害风险背景下的脆弱性。然而，正如系统的文献范围审查所发现的那样，垂直分布尚未得到很好的研究。现有的研究分析了权力关系和等级制度，以及群体内部垂直分离的其他影响，包括疾病传播、等级制度内部的不平等和社会资本的能力。对实地研究的进一步重新分析揭示了在垂直脆弱性研究中需要考虑的其他重要方面：在地下车库中被洪水杀死的人，有电梯的建筑物、斜坡和山麓的疏散问题，受山洪暴发和泥石流影响的建筑物，或地震中倒塌建筑物的碎片阻碍了邻近地区的可达性。该研究建议对人们脆弱性的纵向方面进行更彻底和系统的调查，包括他们的社会和身体特征，以及社会群体的特征。它概述了概念示意图，有助于在建筑、城市和区域层面上识别这一点。这将通过明确强调地点的垂直维度和基于地点的背景，提高脆弱性和灾害风险研究的概念质量。它还将为未来的城市规划工作提供信息，以加强安全、健康和灾害风险管理。它还将使人们能够更有效地从城市或农村地区的建筑物和受影响地区撤离和救援。

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引用次数: 0

The cost of drought: A causal study for Brazilian Municipalities 干旱的代价：巴西市政当局的因果研究

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106012

Luan Marca, Luis Fernando Tavares Vieira Braga, Marco Tulio Aniceto Franca, Augusto Mussi Alvim

This study provides one of the first causal assessments of drought-induced economic losses at the municipal level in Brazil. Using a balanced panel of 5538 municipalities from 2004 to 2021, we apply a staggered adoption difference-in-differences framework with municipality-clustered standard errors to estimate the medium- and long-term impacts on total GDP, formal employment, population density, and sectoral value added in agriculture, services, and industry. The results show that droughts generate persistent and economically significant contractions in municipal output and formal employment. For population density, the estimates indicate sustained post-treatment declines; however, event-study diagnostics reveal significant pre-treatment trends, suggesting that droughts amplify ongoing demographic dynamics rather. Losses are particularly pronounced in services and industry, indicating strong demand- and supply-driven spillovers beyond agriculture. Although the Northeast remains chronically exposed, the most severe contractions concentrate in municipalities in the South–Southeast, suggesting that regions with higher economic formalization and more complex production structures may be more vulnerable to recent drought shocks. These findings have direct implications for climate-adaptation strategies, highlighting the need for territorially targeted investments in water security, risk management, and economic resilience. More broadly, the results point to unequal and spatially concentrated burdens, underscoring the need for future research to examine the distributive impacts of droughts across municipalities with different socioeconomic profiles and adaptive capacities.

这项研究提供了巴西城市一级干旱引起的经济损失的第一个因果评估之一。利用2004年至2021年5538个城市的平衡面板，我们采用了具有城市聚集标准误差的交错采用差异中差异框架来估计对GDP总量、正式就业、人口密度以及农业、服务业和工业部门增加值的中长期影响。结果表明，干旱在城市产出和正式就业方面造成了持续的、经济上显著的收缩。对于人口密度，估计表明治疗后持续下降；然而，事件研究诊断揭示了显著的治疗前趋势，表明干旱反而放大了正在进行的人口动态。服务业和工业的损失尤为明显，这表明需求和供给驱动的溢出效应在农业之外非常强劲。尽管东北部长期处于干旱状态，但最严重的收缩集中在东南偏南的城市，这表明经济正规化程度较高、生产结构更复杂的地区可能更容易受到近期干旱冲击的影响。这些发现对气候适应战略具有直接影响，强调需要在水安全、风险管理和经济复原力方面进行有针对性的区域投资。更广泛地说，研究结果指出了不平等和空间集中的负担，强调了未来研究干旱在不同社会经济状况和适应能力的城市之间的分布影响的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

Women, equity and social reproduction: Retheorising ‘PPRR’ through a gendered lens 妇女、公平和社会再生产：通过性别视角重新理论化“PPRR”

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106008

Suzanne Vallance , Gradon Diprose , Bonny Hatami

It has been argued that too much of our disaster risk analysis is overly focussed on hazards at the expense of processes of social organisation, including gender. In advancing a less myopic research agenda, our qualitative research with women undertaking ‘disaster recovery’ work in Aotearoa New Zealand highlights important, but often overlooked, distinctions between inequality and inequity. This work also shows the importance of women's social reproduction work as a critical training ground for meta-competencies (empathy, multi-tasking and what we call ‘horizontal efficiency’) well-suited for the emerging reframing of ‘disasters’ as complex, cascading and compounding. This reframing suggests we shift attention towards systemic socio-political and ideological drivers of precarity and opportunity so as to re-theorise and challenge neat distinctions between prevention, preparedness, response and recovery (PPRR). An implication for practice is to learn from the way these women undertook their multifaceted social reproductive work which blended domestic, informal and formal spheres, and was often crisis-driven even in ‘peacetime’. We conclude with some thoughts on the ways the skills learned through social reproduction labour are more broadly appropriate for our ‘curvy, wonky world’.

有人认为，我们太多的灾害风险分析过于关注危害，而忽略了社会组织的过程，包括性别。为了推进一个不那么短视的研究议程，我们对新西兰奥特罗阿从事“灾难恢复”工作的妇女进行了定性研究，强调了不平等和不平等之间重要的、但往往被忽视的区别。这项工作还显示了女性社会再生产工作作为元能力（同理心、多任务处理和我们所说的“横向效率”）的关键训练基地的重要性，这非常适合将“灾难”视为复杂、层叠和复合的新兴重构。这种重构建议我们将注意力转移到不稳定和机会的系统性社会政治和意识形态驱动因素上，以便重新理论化和挑战预防、准备、响应和恢复（PPRR）之间的清晰区别。对实践的启示是学习这些妇女进行多方面的社会生殖工作的方式，这些工作混合了家庭，非正式和正式领域，即使在“和平时期”也经常受到危机的驱动。我们总结了通过社会再生产劳动学到的技能更适合我们这个“弯曲、不稳定的世界”的一些想法。

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引用次数: 0

Social practices in community responses to disasters in Fiji 斐济社区应对灾害的社会实践

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106014

Mallee Smith , Thomas Birtchnell , Tillmann Böhme , Andreas Kopf

When a disaster strikes, citizens are expected to respond by following carefully prepared procedures implemented by emergency services and personnel that run in tandem, and at times in conflict with, their established social practices. This paper examines how disasters in Fiji impact community gender norms, which are rapidly unsettled during an emergency. Communities under duress are compelled by government interventions to interact with the standardised routines and behaviours requisite for a disaster setting. The role obdurate social practices play in disaster management is the focus of this paper. A novel reinterpretation of obduracy as resilience is made through an appraisal of the reflections and insights of NGO and charity workers interviewed in Suva, Fiji about community responses across the gendered social practices of comfort, convenience and cleanliness as these are negotiated during emergencies. We conclude by emphasising the need for emergency workers and policymakers alike to be abreast of cultural and community norms and to be attuned to the underlying social practices communities adhere to during disasters.

当灾难发生时，人们期望公民按照紧急服务机构和工作人员制定的精心准备的程序作出反应，这些程序与他们的既定社会习俗相辅相成，有时甚至相互冲突。本文探讨了斐济的灾害如何影响社区性别规范，这些规范在紧急情况下会迅速动摇。受胁迫的社区在政府干预下被迫与灾难环境所需的标准化惯例和行为进行互动。顽固的社会实践在灾害管理中的作用是本文研究的重点。通过对在斐济苏瓦接受采访的非政府组织和慈善工作者的反思和见解进行评估，对社区在紧急情况下协商的舒适、便利和清洁等性别社会实践的反应进行了新的重新诠释，将顽固视为复原力。最后，我们强调，紧急救援人员和政策制定者都需要了解文化和社区规范，并适应社区在灾难期间坚持的基本社会实践。

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引用次数: 0

Factors associated with increased preparedness for future bushfires after exposure to a severe bushfire in Australia 在澳大利亚经历了一场严重的森林大火后，与加强对未来森林大火的准备有关的因素

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106018

Ahlke Kip , Lisa Gibbs , Robyn Molyneaux , David Forbes , Colin MacDougall , H Colin Gallagher , Richard Bryant

When recurrent hazards are exacerbated by climate change, the recovery process from one hazard is closely linked to the preparedness for subsequent events. This study investigated associations of long-term bushfire preparedness after previous bushfire exposure, focusing on the Protective Action Decision Model and considering mental health as an additional explanatory variable. Participants included a sample from the Beyond Bushfire study which was conducted 3–4 years after the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires. Analyses were conducted on 1010 residents of Australian communities who were affected to varying degrees by the bushfires. Associated variables of increased bushfire preparedness were investigated using multivariable logistic regression analysis and included sociodemographic variables, risk perception of future bushfires, evaluation of personal choices during the bushfires, severity of exposure, community connectedness, exposure to subsequent hazards, and mental health. Risk perception was positively associated with increased preparedness, while sense of control over choices, comfort over choices made during the bushfires, and depression symptoms were associated with reduced odds of bushfire preparedness engagement. The findings suggest that personal accounts of previous bushfires may be more related to preparedness behaviours than objective disaster consequences. This finding points to the potential benefit of integrating mental health considerations into disaster preparedness and response policies. However, the model explained only 3.8 % of the differences in preparedness, highlighting the complexity of protective action prediction. More longitudinal research is necessary to improve our understanding of mental health influences.

当反复发生的灾害因气候变化而加剧时，从一种灾害中恢复的过程与对后续事件的准备密切相关。本研究调查了先前森林火灾暴露后长期森林火灾准备的关联，重点关注保护行动决策模型，并将心理健康作为一个额外的解释变量。参与者包括来自“超越丛林大火”研究的样本，该研究是在2009年黑色星期六森林大火发生3-4年后进行的。对1010名不同程度受到森林大火影响的澳大利亚社区居民进行了分析。使用多变量logistic回归分析调查了增加森林火灾准备的相关变量，包括社会人口变量、对未来森林火灾的风险感知、森林火灾期间个人选择的评估、暴露的严重程度、社区连通性、暴露于后续危害和心理健康。风险感知与准备工作的增加呈正相关，而对选择的控制感、对森林大火期间做出的选择的舒适感和抑郁症状与森林大火准备工作参与的几率降低有关。研究结果表明，个人对以前森林大火的描述可能更多地与准备行为有关，而不是客观的灾难后果。这一发现指出了将心理健康考虑纳入备灾和救灾政策的潜在好处。然而，该模型仅解释了3.8%的准备差异，突出了保护行动预测的复杂性。更多的纵向研究是必要的，以提高我们对心理健康影响的理解。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding unmet needs during community wildfire recovery: A case study of smoke damage impacts after the 2021 Marshall Fire 了解社区野火恢复期间未满足的需求：2021年马歇尔火灾后烟雾损害影响的案例研究

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106017

Catrin M. Edgeley

Efforts to understand, assess, and address diversifying recovery needs have growing relevance as wildfires continue to impact communities. However, little is known about social experiences navigating gaps in assistance funding and support or “unmet needs” in post-fire spaces, particularly for indirect impacts like smoke damage. Determining how affected residents access available information and make decisions related to unmet needs can aid the development of resources and programs that support rapid identification of, and response to, emergent or undocumented impacts during recovery processes. This study explores household experiences with smoke damage as an unmet need during recovery following the 2021 Marshall Fire in Boulder County, Colorado, USA. Semi-structured interviews with residents and professionals who dealt with smoke damage revealed a wide spectrum of impacts. Decisions to act on smoke damage were influenced by risk perceptions and personal capacity to undertake self-guided recovery in the absence of a formalized process for navigating remediation. These experiences underscored a distinct absence of scientific and management expertise, legal protections or standards, and assistance related to smoke damage identification and remediation, catalyzing distrust in officials and ambiguity regarding whether smoke damaged homes could become safe again. Together, these conditions created cascading uncertainties for residents with smoke damaged homes that motivated long-term health concerns. Unmet needs after wildfire appeared to emerge because of misconceptions about impact severity, limited professional capacity, and adherence to rigid recovery structures that restrict professionals’ ability to identify and incorporate non-traditional impacts into existing processes. Findings informed suggestions for improving smoke damage recovery processes, inviting consideration of policy and more inclusive assistance to support recovery from indirect wildfire impacts.

随着野火对社区的持续影响，了解、评估和解决多样化恢复需求的努力变得越来越重要。然而，对于在援助资金和支持方面的差距或火灾后空间的“未满足需求”方面的社会经验知之甚少，特别是对于烟雾损害等间接影响。确定受影响的居民如何获取可用信息并做出与未满足需求相关的决策，有助于开发资源和项目，以支持在恢复过程中快速识别和响应紧急或未记录的影响。本研究探讨了2021年美国科罗拉多州博尔德县马歇尔火灾后恢复期间未满足需求的烟雾损害家庭经历。对处理烟雾损害的居民和专业人士进行的半结构化采访揭示了广泛的影响。在缺乏正式的导航补救程序的情况下，风险认知和个人自我引导的恢复能力会影响对烟雾损害采取行动的决定。这些经验突出表明，明显缺乏科学和管理专门知识、法律保护或标准，以及与烟雾损害识别和补救有关的援助，助长了对官员的不信任，对烟雾受损的房屋能否再次变得安全的模糊性。这些条件加在一起，给房屋被烟雾破坏的居民带来了一连串的不确定性，引发了长期的健康担忧。由于对影响严重程度的误解、有限的专业能力以及严格的恢复结构限制了专业人员识别非传统影响并将其纳入现有流程的能力，野火后出现了未满足的需求。调查结果提出了改善烟雾损害恢复过程的建议，邀请考虑政策和更具包容性的援助，以支持从间接野火影响中恢复。

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引用次数: 0

A self-organized criticality model of extreme events and cascading disasters of hub-and-spoke air traffic networks 枢纽辐射型空中交通网络极端事件和级联灾害的自组织临界模型

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106009

Mary Lai O. Salvaña , Harold Jay M. Bolingot , Gregory L. Tangonan

Critical infrastructure networks, such as transportation, power grids, and communication systems, exhibit complex interdependencies that can lead to cascading failures with catastrophic consequences. These cascading disasters often originate from failures at critical points in the network, where single-node disruptions can propagate rapidly due to structural dependencies and high-impact linkages. Such vulnerabilities are exacerbated in systems that have been highly optimized for efficiency or have self-organized into fragile configurations over time. The air transportation system in the United States, built on a hub-and-spoke model, exemplifies this type of critical infrastructure. Its reliance on a limited number of high-throughput hubs means that even localized disruptions — particularly those triggered by increasingly frequent and extreme weather events — can initiate cascades with nationwide impacts. We introduce a novel application of the theory of Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) to model and analyze cascading failures in such networks. Through a detailed case study of U.S. airline operations, we show how the SOC model exhibits the power-law distribution of disruptions and the long-tail risk of systemic failures, reflecting the real-world interplay between structural fragility and external shocks. Our approach enables quantitative assessment of network vulnerability, identification of critical nodes, and evaluation of proactive intervention strategies for disaster risk reduction. The results demonstrate that the SOC model successfully replicates the observed statistical patterns of disruption sizes — characterized by frequent small events and rare but severe cascading failures — offering a powerful systems-level framework for infrastructure resilience planning and emergency management. The model provides practitioners with actionable insights for anticipating and mitigating systemic risks in complex, interdependent systems.

关键的基础设施网络，如交通、电网和通信系统，表现出复杂的相互依赖性，可能导致连锁故障和灾难性后果。这些级联灾难通常源于网络中关键点的故障，其中单节点中断可能由于结构依赖和高影响连接而迅速传播。随着时间的推移，这些漏洞在高度优化效率或自组织成脆弱配置的系统中会加剧。美国的航空运输系统，建立在一个中心和辐条模式上，是这类关键基础设施的典范。它对数量有限的高吞吐量枢纽的依赖意味着，即使是局部的中断——特别是那些由日益频繁和极端天气事件引发的中断——也可能引发连锁反应，造成全国范围的影响。我们介绍了自组织临界（SOC）理论的一种新应用，以模拟和分析此类网络中的级联故障。通过对美国航空公司运营的详细案例研究，我们展示了SOC模型如何展示中断的幂律分布和系统性失败的长尾风险，反映了现实世界中结构脆弱性和外部冲击之间的相互作用。我们的方法能够对网络脆弱性进行定量评估，识别关键节点，并评估减少灾害风险的主动干预策略。结果表明，SOC模型成功地复制了观察到的中断规模的统计模式——其特征是频繁的小事件和罕见但严重的级联故障——为基础设施弹性规划和应急管理提供了强大的系统级框架。该模型为从业者提供了可操作的见解，以预测和减轻复杂、相互依赖的系统中的系统性风险。

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引用次数: 0

Floods and flats: Housing market responses to flood risk in Japan 洪水和公寓：日本房地产市场对洪水风险的反应

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105997

Yanran Ye , Kenji Takeuchi

A significant portion of the global population resides in coastal areas and faces increasing flood risks. This study applies a hedonic pricing model to examine how flood risk affects residential property prices in Japan, using both plan-scale and maximum-scale flood maps. Our analysis indicates that apartments located within plan-scale flood zones are priced 8.5% lower than comparable units outside these zones, while under the maximum-scale flood scenario, prices decline by about 5.8%. Regional heterogeneity is pronounced, with flood risk effect being markedly stronger in metropolitan areas: properties within plan-scale flood zones experience a price reduction of around 25%, and those within maximum-scale zones see a nearly 20% decrease. Height-based analysis further reveals that the housing market incorporates interactions between expected flood depths and floor levels when valuing properties. In addition, the results suggest that Japan’s 2020 mandatory flood disclosure policy has likely strengthened the extent to which potential flood damage is reflected in property prices. These findings highlight the importance of integrating flood risk into climate adaptation planning, particularly in densely populated metropolitan regions.

全球很大一部分人口居住在沿海地区，面临着越来越大的洪水风险。本研究运用享乐定价模型，利用计划比例尺和最大比例尺洪水地图，考察洪水风险如何影响日本住宅物业价格。我们的分析表明，位于规划规模洪水区内的公寓价格比规划规模洪水区外的同类公寓价格低8.5%，而在最大规模洪水情景下，价格下降约5.8%。区域异质性明显，大都市地区的洪水风险效应明显更强：规划规模洪涝区内的房产价格下降了25%左右，而最大规模洪涝区内的房产价格下降了近20%。基于高度的分析进一步表明，在评估房产时，房地产市场包含了预期洪水深度和地板高度之间的相互作用。此外，研究结果表明，日本2020年的强制性洪水信息披露政策可能加强了潜在洪水损失在房地产价格中反映的程度。这些发现强调了将洪水风险纳入气候适应规划的重要性，特别是在人口密集的大都市地区。

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引用次数: 0

Climate extremes and rural livelihoods: Vulnerability and adaptation of aging farmers in the Philippines 极端气候与农村生计：菲律宾老年农民的脆弱性和适应能力

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106016

Emmanuel M. Preña, Cherrylyn P. Labayo

This study examines the vulnerability and adaptive responses of aging rice farmers in Philippine agrarian reform communities (ARCs) to intensifying climate extremes, including prolonged heat, drought, heavy rainfall, and tropical cyclones. Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vulnerability framework and extending the Protection Motivation Theory through the Risk, Coping, and Social Appraisal model, this study integrates structural, cognitive, and social dimensions of climate adaptation. Qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews with older farmers, purposively sampled across three ARCs in Castilla, Sorsogon, Philippines, complemented by focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Findings reveal a convergence of high exposure, elevated sensitivity, and uneven adaptive capacity, manifested in chronic heat-related physical strain, disrupted farming calendars due to unpredictable rainfall, and reliance on informal social networks as primary coping mechanisms amid limited institutional support. Farmers demonstrated strong risk appraisal, acknowledging the immediacy and severity of climate threats, yet adaptive action was constrained by low coping efficacy, limited financial and technological resources, and age-related physical limitations. Social appraisal emerged as a critical determinant of resilience, with cohesive farmer organizations and institutional support enabling effective collective adaptation, while weak social cohesion and limited institutional reach exacerbated vulnerability. Policy implications emphasize strengthening coping and social appraisal through targeted investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, tailored extension services for older farmers, community-based adaptation models, and social protection systems such as pensions, crop insurance, and emergency assistance. By addressing structural constraints while leveraging older farmers’ experiential knowledge, these interventions can enhance rural climate resilience and food security.

本研究探讨了菲律宾土地改革社区（ARCs）老龄化稻农对日益加剧的极端气候（包括持续高温、干旱、强降雨和热带气旋）的脆弱性和适应性反应。本研究在政府间气候变化专门委员会脆弱性框架的基础上，通过风险、应对和社会评价模型扩展了保护动机理论，整合了气候适应的结构、认知和社会维度。定性数据是通过对菲律宾卡斯蒂利亚、索索贡三个农村地区的老年农民进行深入访谈收集的，并辅以焦点小组讨论和关键信息提供方访谈。研究结果揭示了高暴露、高敏感性和不均匀适应能力的趋同，表现为慢性热相关的身体疲劳、由于不可预测的降雨而中断的农业日历，以及在有限的制度支持下依赖非正式社会网络作为主要应对机制。农民表现出较强的风险评估能力，承认气候威胁的紧迫性和严重性，但适应行动受到应对效率低、财政和技术资源有限以及与年龄相关的身体限制的制约。社会评价成为恢复力的关键决定因素，有凝聚力的农民组织和机构支持能够实现有效的集体适应，而社会凝聚力薄弱和机构影响力有限则加剧了脆弱性。政策影响强调通过有针对性地投资于气候适应型基础设施、为老年农民量身定制的推广服务、基于社区的适应模式以及养老金、作物保险和紧急援助等社会保护体系来加强应对和社会评估。通过解决结构性制约因素，同时利用老年农民的经验知识，这些干预措施可以增强农村的气候适应能力和粮食安全。

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