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Geospatial analysis of alarmingly increasing flood vulnerability and disaster risk within the northeast himalaya region of India 对印度东北部喜马拉雅地区惊人增长的洪水脆弱性和灾害风险的地理空间分析
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104920
Pradeep Kumar Rawat , Khrieketouno Belho , M.S. Rawat
Geoenvironmetally the eastern part of the Himalaya region is highly vulnerable to flood and other natural disasters as it consists of fragmented and tectonically active geology and geomorphology, very high monsoon rainfall (>360 cm) and subsequent runoff, rugged hilly terrain with high ranges of elevation and slope, dense drainage density etc. Other hand, the unplanned developmental activities keep going and scaling up this vulnerability and risk to floods and other disasters. Addressing this burning issue, a geospatial technology-based case study of the Kohima district, Nagaland state (India), is presented here. The geospatial "technology-based" analyses employed in the study are thematic GIS mapping of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk controlling factors; and performing overlay operation using the AHP model in GIS software to generate spatio-temporal map layers of flood vulnerability and disaster risk. Results reveal that the region is under a high rate of monsoon climate change (increasing temperature, rainfall, rainy days, rainfall events and flood events with an annual rate of 0.35 %, 1.12 %, 0.36 %, 2.67 % and 4 % respectively), land use degradation (increasing built-up area with 0.60 %, annual rate decreasing forest, shrubs and water bodies with 0.80 % accumulated annual rates respectively) and demographic changes (increasing urban as well and rural population density with 0.53–2.10 % and 0.55–2.14 % respectively). Accumulated impacts of climate change, land use degradation and demographic changes causing an increase in flood hazard, vulnerability and disaster risk. Flood hazard zones and vulnerability zones extending with 0.50 % (4.89 km2) and 0.84 % (8.16 km2) annual rates respectively, subsequently the flood risk zones categorized as a moderate, high and very high potential risk, have been spreading out with a yearly rate of 0.07 % (0.65 km2), 0.13 % (1.31 km2) and 0.03 % (0.33 km2) respectively. It decreases the area under low and very low-risk zones by 0.17 % (1.63 km2) and 0.07 % (0.65 km2) annual rates respectively. Following up on these annual rates, the spatial distribution of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk zones for the next decade (2031–2040) have also been projected, revealing alarming situations, if flood disaster risk reduction (F-DRR) measures were not implemented in timely. It is strongly believed that the proposed study will be very useful for district-level planners and administrators to implement sustainable development planning, for the scientific fraternity to enhance their research work in the field of flood disaster management and for individuals for their safety in terms of life and property.
从地质环境来看,喜马拉雅山脉东部地区非常容易遭受洪水和其他自然灾害,因为这里的地质和地貌破碎且构造活跃,季风降雨量(360 厘米)和随后的径流量非常大,丘陵地形崎岖不平,海拔和坡度范围大,排水系统密集等。另一方面,无计划的开发活动持续不断,加剧了洪水和其他灾害的脆弱性和风险。针对这一紧迫问题,本文介绍了一项基于地理空间技术的印度那加兰邦科希马县案例研究。研究中采用的地理空间 "基于技术 "的分析方法是:绘制洪水灾害、脆弱性和风险控制因素的专题地理信息系统地图;在地理信息系统软件中使用 AHP 模型进行叠加操作,生成洪水脆弱性和灾害风险的时空地图层。结果显示,该地区正处于季风气候变化(气温、降雨量、降雨日数、降雨事件和洪水事件分别以每年 0.35 %、1.12 %、0.36 %、2.67 % 和 4 % 的速度增加)、土地利用退化(建筑面积以每年 0.60 %,森林、灌木和水体年均减少率分别为 0.80 %)和人口变化(城市和农村人口密度分别增加 0.53-2.10 % 和 0.55-2.14 %)。气候变化、土地利用退化和人口变化的累积影响导致洪水危害、脆弱性和灾害风险增加。洪水危害区和洪水易发区分别以每年 0.50 %(4.89 平方公里)和 0.84 %(8.16 平方公里)的速度扩大,而被划分为中度、高度和极高度潜在风险的洪水风险区则以每年 0.07 %(0.65 平方公里)、0.13 %(1.31 平方公里)和 0.03 %(0.33 平方公里)的速度扩大。低风险区和极低风险区的面积每年分别减少 0.17 %(1.63 平方公里)和 0.07 %(0.65 平方公里)。根据这些年增长率,还预测了未来十年(2031-2040 年)洪水灾害、脆弱性和风险区的空间分布情况,如果不及时实施洪水灾害风险降低(F-DRR)措施,情况将令人担忧。我们坚信,拟议的研究将非常有助于地区一级的规划者和管理者实施可持续发展规划,有助于科学界加强在洪水灾害管理领域的研究工作,也有助于个人的生命和财产安全。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the effects of time pressure and distracting elements in an Augmented Reality game for emergency preparedness 探索增强现实游戏中时间压力和干扰因素对应急准备的影响
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104900
Misha Mirza, Stephan Lukosch, Heide Lukosch
The development of emergency preparedness and response skills is crucial for ensuring individual safety and well-being during natural disasters. Realistic and engaging games can effectively promote these skills. This paper explores the impact of introducing additional game objects as distractors and time pressure on user experience and willingness to prepare for emergencies in an Augmented Reality (AR) game. Additional, distracting game elements and time pressure are included in the game scenario to simulate the cognitive demands and stress experienced in real emergency situations. To investigate the impact of distracting game elements and time pressure, a within-subjects study was conducted with 52 participants who played two different versions of an AR game designed to help locate recommended items for an emergency grab bag. In the first version, participants focused solely on finding the recommended items, while in the second version, distractors and a timer were introduced to emphasize the urgency of packing the bag. The results showed no significant difference in user experience between the two versions. However, the version with time pressure and distractors demonstrated a significant improvement in attitudes and perceived behavioral control regarding immediate actions in response to evacuation warnings. Qualitative feedback from participants supported these effects. These findings suggest new directions for further research and highlight the potential of AR games to enhance emergency response strategies.
培养应急准备和响应技能对于确保自然灾害期间的个人安全和福祉至关重要。逼真且引人入胜的游戏可以有效提高这些技能。本文探讨了在增强现实(AR)游戏中引入额外游戏对象作为干扰因素和时间压力对用户体验和应急准备意愿的影响。在游戏场景中加入了额外的、分散注意力的游戏元素和时间压力,以模拟真实紧急情况下的认知需求和压力。为了研究分散注意力的游戏元素和时间压力的影响,我们对 52 名参与者进行了一项主体内研究,他们玩了两个不同版本的 AR 游戏,游戏的目的是帮助找到应急包的推荐物品。在第一个版本中,参与者只专注于寻找推荐物品,而在第二个版本中,则引入了干扰因素和计时器,以强调打包的紧迫性。结果显示,两个版本的用户体验没有明显差异。不过,有时间压力和分心因素的版本在应对疏散警告时立即采取行动的态度和感知行为控制方面有明显改善。参与者的定性反馈也支持这些效果。这些研究结果为进一步的研究提出了新的方向,并强调了 AR 游戏在增强应急响应策略方面的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
A methodology to assess and select seismic fragility curves: Calibration from expert survey and fuzzy analysis 评估和选择地震脆性曲线的方法:通过专家调查和模糊分析进行校准
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104930
Maribel Jiménez-Martínez , Laura Navas-Sánchez , Beatriz González-Rodrigo , Orlando Hernández-Rubio
Fragility curves (FCs) are extended decision-making tools for estimating the structural performance of systems exposed to seismic hazards. However, selecting an inappropriate FC can significantly affect the accuracy of loss and damage calculations in seismic risk assessments.
This article enhances the “Select.FC” method, a recently proposed novel approach that allows the selection of FCs with a higher degree of reliability. This method utilizes a multidimensional index incorporating a comprehensive set of variables about various aspects of FCs. A calibration and validation process is conducted on the variable scores of this multidimensional index based on a worldwide survey of experts. The implementation of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method further enhances the objectivity and dependability of the scores calculated from the experts' responses.
The proposed approach not only allows for the evaluation of FCs but also provides a practical tool for researchers. This evaluation of FCs is crucial, as it enhances the accuracy and reliability of seismic vulnerability and risk assessments.
The results obtained from the expert survey and the FAHP reveal several discrepancies between the calibrated new scores assigned to specific variables and those proposed in the original methodology. However, in the aggregate, these discrepancies disappear. Therefore, the “Select.FC” method and its proposed classification of FCs into six categories based on the score obtained in the final multidimensional index seem quite robust regarding important changes in the weights of some of the variables.
脆性曲线(FC)是一种扩展的决策工具,用于估算暴露在地震灾害中的系统的结构性能。然而,在地震风险评估中,选择不合适的易损性曲线会严重影响损失和破坏计算的准确性。本文对 "Select.FC "方法进行了改进,该方法是最近提出的一种新方法,可以选择可靠性更高的易损性曲线。该方法采用了一个多维指数,其中包含一系列有关功能区各个方面的综合变量。在对全球专家进行调查的基础上,对这一多维指数的变量得分进行了校准和验证。模糊分析层次过程(FAHP)方法的实施进一步提高了根据专家答复计算出的分数的客观性和可靠性。专家调查和 FAHP 得出的结果显示,校准后分配给特定变量的新分数与原始方法中提出的分数之间存在一些差异。然而,从总体上看,这些差异消失了。因此,"Select.FC "方法及其根据最终多维指数得分将功能区分为六类的建议,在某些变量的权重发生重大变化时显得相当稳健。
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引用次数: 0
A global (South) collective burden: A systematic review of the current state of climate-related hazards in informal settlements 全球(南方)的集体负担:对非正规住区与气候有关的危害现状的系统审查
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104940
Camila Tavares P , Rafael S.D. Pereira , Christine Bonnin , Denise Duarte , Gerald Mills , Tobi Eniolu Morakinyo , Paul Holloway
Currently, 1 billion residents inhabit informal settlements characterized by a lack of urban services, inadequate housing, insecure land tenure, and heightened vulnerability to climate-related hazards. With minimal governmental support, these communities bear the burden of managing climate risks. This systematic review utilized Scopus and Web of Science databases to identify and synthesize peer-reviewed literature investigating global climate-related hazards in informal settlements over the past 23 years. Search terms included "Informal Settlements OR Slums" AND "Landslide" OR "Heat Stress" OR "Heatwaves " OR "Urban Heat Island" OR "Flooding" OR "Water Scarcity". The review reveals a rising trend in published articles on climate-related hazards in informal settlements, particularly in the last six years. Of the 415 papers identified, the majority (approximately 70 %) focus on flood risk impacts and adaptation measures. We identified six emerging trends, including 1) gender analysis, 2) scaling demographies, 3) adaption actions, 4) transferability, 5) GIS and remote sensing, and 6) building climate resilience. Despite the prevalence of high temperatures in informal settlement areas, studies addressing heat-related hazards, such as heat stress or Urban Heat Island, are underdeveloped. Individuals or households predominantly carry out risk reduction and adaptation efforts, with few transformative, multi-stakeholder initiatives observed. Developing a transferable, community-based climate risk assessment model could significantly enhance resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and disaster risks in informal settlements, emphasizing the need for collaborative, multi-scale strategies.
目前,有 10 亿居民居住在非正规住区,其特点是缺乏城市服务、住房不足、土地使用权无保障以及更容易受到与气候有关的灾害的影响。在政府极少支持的情况下,这些社区承担着管理气候风险的重担。本系统性综述利用 Scopus 和 Web of Science 数据库,对过去 23 年来调查全球非正规住区气候相关危害的同行评审文献进行了识别和综合。搜索关键词包括 "非正规住区或贫民窟 "和 "山体滑坡 "或 "热应力 "或 "热浪 "或 "城市热岛 "或 "洪水 "或 "水资源短缺"。审查显示,已发表的关于非正规住区气候灾害的文章呈上升趋势,尤其是在过去六年中。在确定的 415 篇论文中,大多数(约 70%)侧重于洪水风险影响和适应措施。我们发现了六种新趋势,包括:1)性别分析;2)扩大人口规模;3)适应行动;4)可转移性;5)地理信息系统和遥感;6)建设气候复原力。尽管非正规居住区普遍存在高温现象,但针对热相关危害(如热应力或城市热岛)的研究却不充分。个人或家庭主要开展降低风险和适应气候变化的工作,很少有变革性的多利益相关方倡议。开发一个可转让的、基于社区的气候风险评估模型,可以大大提高非正规住区对与气候相关的危害和灾害风险的抵御能力和适应能力,同时强调协作性、多规模战略的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Tailings storage facilities in China: Historical failure incidents, existing status, and database-driven quantitative risk assessment 中国的尾矿库:历史故障事件、现状和数据库驱动的定量风险评估
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104973
Chenxu Su , Nahyan M. Rana , Stephen G. Evans , Bijiao Wang , Shuai Zhang
Tailings storage facility (TSF) failures in China have historically resulted in downstream consequences, including fatalities, economic harm, and environmental contamination. However, the nation-wide documentation on existing TSFs is incomplete, and the magnitude-frequency statistics of the failures are poorly quantified. These gaps have impeded ongoing efforts of risk assessment and mitigation. This study collates and analyzes new databases on historical TSF failures and existing TSFs in China. We report 143 TSF failures in China over the period 1957–2023, which exceeds the number (∼20) reported in previous studies. Magnitude-frequency statistics indicate that the mean return period for TSF failures in China with at least 10 fatalities is ∼5 years, while for those with released volumes >1 million m3 is ∼16 years. Our review confirms that there are at least 14,217 existing TSFs in China; therefore, the cumulative failure rate of TSFs in China is estimated to be ∼1 %. We supply a database of 1853 TSFs that lists the statistics such as storage volume and dam height. Using these datasets along with downstream demographic statistics, we undertake a regional risk assessment for Jilin Province, which identifies 11 TSFs with intolerable risks. Among these, the most critical TSF poses a potential loss of 175 lives. Our findings provide the most comprehensive picture of TSFs in China to date. We anticipate that this study will advance tailings disclosure practices in China and support screening-level risk assessments by provincial regulators to help prioritize community engagement and risk mitigation efforts.
中国的尾矿库(TSF)故障历来会造成下游后果,包括人员伤亡、经济损失和环境污染。然而,全国范围内有关现有尾矿库的文献资料并不完整,对故障的严重程度和频率统计也不够量化。这些差距阻碍了当前的风险评估和缓解工作。本研究整理并分析了有关中国历史上 TSF 故障和现有 TSF 的新数据库。我们报告了 1957-2023 年间中国发生的 143 起 TSF 故障,超过了以往研究报告的数量(20 起)。震级-频率统计表明,中国至少造成 10 人死亡的 TSF 故障的平均重现期为 5 年,而释放量达 100 万立方米的 TSF 故障的平均重现期为 16 年。我们的研究证实,中国现有的 TSF 至少有 14,217 个,因此,中国 TSF 的累计故障率估计为 1%。我们提供了一个包含 1853 座水电站的数据库,其中列出了蓄水量和坝高等统计数据。利用这些数据集和下游人口统计数据,我们对吉林省进行了区域风险评估,确定了 11 个存在不可容忍风险的水电站。其中,最严重的 TSF 可能会导致 175 人丧生。我们的研究结果提供了迄今为止中国 TSF 最全面的情况。我们预计这项研究将推动中国的尾矿披露实践,并支持省级监管机构进行筛选级风险评估,以帮助确定社区参与和风险缓解工作的优先次序。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing societal resilience through the whole-of-society approach to crisis preparedness: Complex adaptive systems perspective – The case of Finland 通过全社会危机防备方法增强社会复原力:复杂适应系统视角--芬兰案例
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104944
Aino Ruggiero, Wojciech D. Piotrowicz, Lijo John
This study adopts a systemic view to investigate societal resilience within the whole-of-society framework for crisis preparedness, focusing on best practices, challenges, and solutions. Finland serves as the case study due to its pioneering position in crisis preparedness and its adoption of a comprehensive preparedness model that encompasses relationships and interactions among diverse stakeholders. In this study, the Finnish preparedness system is illustrated and analysed through the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS). Data are collected through interviews with security actors representing different stakeholder groups, including civil society, businesses, and the public sector. An interpretative approach synthesises insights from literature, reports, and stakeholder interactions to co-create knowledge. The analysis covers the CAS tenets of context, relational constitution, adaptive capacity, emergence, and openness. The study presents an exploratory model anchored in CAS theory, incorporating key practices, processes, and adaptation loops integral to societal resilience from a systemic perspective in the Finnish context. From a theoretical point of view, this study contributes to CAS theory by exploring the role of context as a slow-changing variable, which is often considered a constant in CAS. Furthermore, while emergent behaviour is a critical component of CAS, most studies explore the emergent behaviour of a system within a short time span. However, the findings of this study highlight the importance of long-term emergent behaviour in addition to short-term behaviour. From a practical standpoint, this study not only explores best practices but also identifies the challenges of the Finnish system and provides a benchmark for other countries to develop their own crisis preparedness. However, replicating the system elsewhere may be challenging due to certain unique contextual factors.
本研究采用系统观点,在全社会危机准备框架内调查社会复原力,重点关注最佳实践、挑战和解决方案。芬兰在危机防备方面处于领先地位,并采用了包含不同利益相关者之间关系和互动的综合防备模式,因此将其作为案例进行研究。本研究从复杂适应系统(CAS)的角度对芬兰的备灾系统进行了说明和分析。数据是通过与代表不同利益相关者群体(包括民间社会、企业和公共部门)的安全行动者进行访谈收集的。解释性方法综合了从文献、报告和利益相关者互动中获得的见解,以共同创造知识。分析涵盖了文脉、关系构成、适应能力、新兴性和开放性等 CAS 原则。研究提出了一个以CAS理论为基础的探索性模型,从芬兰的系统角度出发,纳入了社会复原力不可或缺的关键实践、流程和适应循环。从理论的角度来看,本研究通过探索环境作为一个缓慢变化的变量所发挥的作用,为 CAS 理论做出了贡献。此外,虽然突发行为是 CAS 的重要组成部分,但大多数研究都是探讨系统在短时间内的突发行为。然而,本研究的结果强调了除短期行为外,长期突发行为的重要性。从实用的角度来看,这项研究不仅探讨了最佳做法,还明确了芬兰系统所面临的挑战,为其他国家发展本国的危机准备工作提供了一个基准。然而,由于某些独特的背景因素,在其他地方复制该系统可能具有挑战性。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating climate change adaptation strategies among informal residents in Kumasi through the lenses of the social action and social control theories 从社会行动和社会控制理论的角度调查库马西非正规居民的气候变化适应战略
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104963
Michael Osei Asibey , Vivian Yeboah
The urban poor in informal settlements in Ghana remain exposed and vulnerable to climate-induced hazards. Their exclusion from official adaptation interventions, undeniably, calls for social mechanisms to enable them to adapt to climate change hazards such as heatwaves and floods. Individuals may contribute to exacerbating climate-induced hazards or employ adaptation measures as a common practice or due to their connectedness to a group, as hypothesised by the social action and social control theories, respectively. There is, however, no known study on the empirical and theoretical contributions of these theories to influencing climate change adaptation efforts in urban Africa. At best, studies have looked at the importance of individual and community skills, and assets to adapting to climate change hazards. The study is underpinned by the social action and social control theories to explore how elements of the theories shape hazard reduction and adaptation efforts. 367 household interviews and, four focus group discussions were conducted in two of Kumasi's largest informal settlements – Aboabo and Asawase – in addition to seven relevant agency interviews. We found that most households employed several adaptation measures because they saw other residents do the same which was confirmed by the Chi-square test statistic (χ2 = 4.968, p < 0.000) and as hypothesised by the social action theory. Similarly, as hypothesised by the social control theory, we also found differences in the adaptation measures employed by households belonging to identified environment-related groups (χ2 = 21.465, p < 0.001). This was largely because among other activities, the education and training exercises undertaken by the groups influenced the knowledge levels of members about climate change hazards and adaptation measures. The groups offer emotional, monetary, material, and practical support to cope within the short-term; first to the members, and the general residents, who are affected by disasters. Generally, adopted measures to reduce adverse impacts and build adaptation were unsustainable. This study is among few studies that demonstrate the contribution of the social action and social control theories to managing and adapting to climate change and its associated impacts in African cities.
加纳非正规住区中的城市贫民仍然容易受到气候灾害的影响。不可否认,他们被排除在官方适应干预措施之外,这就要求建立社会机制,使他们能够适应热浪和洪水等气候变化危害。正如社会行动理论和社会控制理论分别假设的那样,个人可能会加剧气候灾害,或作为一种常见做法或由于与群体的联系而采用适应措施。然而,关于这些理论在影响非洲城市气候变化适应工作方面的经验和理论贡献,目前尚无任何已知研究。最多的研究只是探讨了个人和社区技能以及资产对适应气候变化危害的重要性。本研究以社会行动和社会控制理论为基础,探讨这些理论要素如何影响减灾和适应工作。我们在库马西最大的两个非正规居住区--阿博博和阿萨瓦斯--进行了 367 次家庭访谈和 4 次焦点小组讨论,此外还进行了 7 次相关机构访谈。我们发现,大多数家庭都采取了多项适应措施,因为他们看到其他居民也采取了同样的措施,这一点得到了卡方检验统计量(χ2 = 4.968, p <0.000)的证实,也符合社会行动理论的假设。同样,正如社会控制理论所假设的那样,我们还发现属于已确定的环境相关群体的家庭所采取的适应措施存在差异(χ2 = 21.465,p < 0.001)。这主要是因为除其他活动外,团体开展的教育和培训活动影响了成员对气候变化危害和适应措施的认识水平。这些小组首先为受灾害影响的成员和普通居民提供情感、金钱、物质和实际支持,帮助他们在短期内应对灾害。一般来说,为减少不利影响和建立适应能力而采取的措施是不可持续的。这项研究是为数不多的证明社会行动和社会控制理论有助于非洲城市管理和适应气候变化及其相关影响的研究之一。
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引用次数: 0
A dynamic fire risk assessment method for compact historic villages based on the improved FRAME 基于改进型 FRAME 的紧凑型历史古村落动态火灾风险评估方法
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104935
Danyan Liao , Xiaolan Zhuo , Jin Tao
There are a large number of high-value heritage sites in the historic villages preserved in the mountainous areas of southern China. These sites are exposed to major fire risks due to their compact layout and wooden building materials. By improving the fire risk assessment method for engineering (FRAME), we proposed a dynamic fire risk assessment method for compact historic villages. On one hand, a balance between universality and pertinence was established regarding the assessment indexes and weighting system by integrating general factors with unique regional factors. On the other hand, a connecting link between prescriptive fire codes and performance-based design adjustments was established through the cyclic operation path of assessment-intervention-reassessment. Xiaozhai village, which has experienced serious fire incidents, was selected as an example. Its original fire risk, established fire interventions, actual fire results, and optimized fire protection plan were compared and analyzed to validate the effectiveness and reliability of the assessment method. This study reveals the correlation between various factors of the village and building fire risk. Among these factors, building proximity, traditional customs, and fire protection layout, which are not included in the original FRAME, have a significant impact on fire risk. The results of this study can serve as a reference for fire prevention in historic villages with similar characteristics worldwide. Additionally, the proposed methodology can provide insights into the development of fire risk assessment methods for various types of historical settlements, thus promoting the sustainable development of built heritage in these settlements.
在中国南方山区保存的历史村落中,有大量高价值的遗产地。这些遗址由于布局紧凑、采用木质建筑材料,面临着较大的火灾风险。通过改进工程火灾风险评估方法(FRAME),我们提出了紧凑型历史村落的动态火灾风险评估方法。一方面,在评估指标和权重体系上,通过整合一般性因素和独特的区域性因素,在普遍性和针对性之间建立了平衡。另一方面,通过 "评估-干预-再评估 "的循环运行路径,建立了规范性防火规范与基于性能的设计调整之间的联系。我们选择了曾发生过严重火灾事故的小寨村为例。通过对其原始火灾风险、既定消防干预措施、实际火灾结果和优化消防方案进行对比分析,验证了评估方法的有效性和可靠性。这项研究揭示了村庄的各种因素与建筑火灾风险之间的相关性。在这些因素中,建筑距离、传统习俗和防火布局等原 FRAME 中未包含的因素对火灾风险有显著影响。本研究的结果可为世界各地具有类似特征的历史村落的火灾预防提供参考。此外,所提出的方法还可为各类历史聚落火灾风险评估方法的开发提供启示,从而促进这些聚落建筑遗产的可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Measurement of flood resilience of metro station based on combination weighting-cloud model 基于组合加权云模型的地铁站抗洪能力测量
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104950
Rumeng Tian , Ying Zhang , Lei Peng , Yan Wang , Wei Wang , Yingying Gu
To further improve the flood safety level of metro stations, this research combined resilience theory and used combination weighting-cloud model method to evaluate metro station flood resilience. Firstly, the connotation of metro station flood resilience was defined. Physical-social-information trio spaces theory was combined with the resilience performance process of resistance, response, recovery and adaptation to determine influencing factors and develop evaluation index system. Secondly, combination weighting method was used to obtain index weight and quantitative model of metro station flood resilience measurement was developed by combining obstacle degree and cloud models. Finally, taking 8 metro stations in Zhengzhou as examples, an empirical research was performed to verify the scientificity and rationality of the proposed model. The results showed that: (1) The flood resilience levels of Zhengzhou metro stations were good as a whole and their response resilience, recovery resilience and adaptation resilience were relatively better than their resistance resilience, which complied with actual situations. (2) Peak hour passenger flow, emergency medical ability, public opinion guidance ability, flood engineering transformation, intelligent information platform construction and other indicators were found to be the key obstacle factors of the flood resilience of Zhengzhou metro stations, which needed to be paid attention to.
为进一步提高地铁车站的防洪安全水平,本研究结合抗洪理论,采用组合加权云模型法对地铁车站抗洪能力进行评价。首先,界定了地铁车站抗洪能力的内涵。将物理-社会-信息三重空间理论与抵抗、响应、恢复和适应的抗灾性能过程相结合,确定影响因素并制定评价指标体系。其次,采用组合加权法获得指标权重,并结合障碍度模型和云模型建立了地铁站抗洪能力定量测量模型。最后,以郑州 8 个地铁站为例,进行了实证研究,验证了所提模型的科学性和合理性。结果表明(1)郑州地铁车站抗洪水平整体较好,其响应抗洪、恢复抗洪和适应抗洪能力相对优于抵抗抗洪能力,符合实际情况。(2)发现高峰小时客流、应急医疗能力、舆情引导能力、防洪工程改造、智能信息平台建设等指标是影响郑州地铁车站抗洪能力的关键障碍因素,需要引起重视。
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引用次数: 0
Co-defining a user-based desirable future for seismic alert systems with stakeholders: application to martinique, French west indies 与利益相关方共同确定基于用户的地震警报系统的理想未来:在法属西印度群岛马提尼克的应用
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104932
Samuel Auclair, Aude Nachbaur, Pierre Gehl, Yoann Legendre, Benoît Vittecoq
Since we cannot predict earthquakes, it is critical to better anticipate them and thus to save time in enabling timely implementation of appropriate protection measures. To this end, several types of tools based on real-time monitoring have been proposed over the past ten years, namely: Operational Earthquake (or Aftershock) Forecasting, (ii) Earthquake Early Warning and (iii) Rapid Response to Earthquakes systems. This paper assesses the opportunity to transfer these three socio-technical systems into operational tools for the territory of Martinique (French West Indies), and more generally for the Lesser Antilles regions.
The research design relies on an user-centered approach based on an in-depth three-steps consultation of stakeholders in the territory of Martinique, by implementing (i) an online survey, (ii) a targeted interview with key actors and finally (iii) a workshop bringing together all stakeholders. This sequential consultation approach enables to start from individual considerations and to progressively refine the diagnosis of the applicability of earthquake alerting tools, first for each type of entity, then for the territory as a whole. Coupled with an analysis of international experience in seismic alerting and the regional context of seismic risk governance, this leads to the elaboration of perspectives at three scales: (i) the local scale of Martinique, (ii) the regional scale of the French West Indies on one hand, and of Lesser Antilles on the other, and (iii) the international scale. In particular, the findings of this study emphasize the need for an “informational continuum” of decision support for practitioners before, during and after the occurrence of earthquakes and their aftershocks. This leads to a reconsideration of Operational Earthquake Forecasting, Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response to Earthquakes systems as intrinsically complementary, while not having the same level of operational applicability.
由于我们无法预测地震,因此必须更好地预测地震,从而节省时间,及时采取适当的保护措施。为此,过去十年中提出了几种基于实时监测的工具,即地震(或余震)业务预报,(ii) 地震预警和 (iii) 地震快速反应系统。本文评估了将这三个社会技术系统转化为马提尼克岛(法属西印度群岛)以及更广泛的小安的列斯群岛地区的业务工具的机会。研究设计依赖于以用户为中心的方法,该方法基于对马提尼克岛利益相关者的三步深入咨询,即实施 (i) 在线调查,(ii) 有针对性地采访主要参与者,以及 (iii) 将所有利益相关者聚集在一起的研讨会。这种循序渐进的磋商方法有助于从个体考虑出发,逐步完善对地震预警工具适用性的诊断,首先是针对各类实体,然后是针对整个领土。结合对地震预警方面的国际经验和地震风险治理的地区背景的分析,我们从三个尺度阐述 了观点:(i) 马提尼克岛的地方尺度,(ii) 法属西印度群岛和小安的列斯群岛的地区尺度,(iii) 国际尺度。这项研究的结果特别强调,在地震及其余震发生之前、期间和之后,需要为从业人员 提供 "信息连续体 "决策支持。这就促使我们重新考虑地震业务预报、地震预警和地震快速反应系统,它们在本质上 是互补的,但在业务适用性方面却不尽相同。
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International journal of disaster risk reduction
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