International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第2页

Risk analysis of underground debris flows in mines based on a coupled weighted Bayesian network 基于耦合加权贝叶斯网络的矿井地下泥石流风险分析

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104922

Mines mined by the natural caving method are prone to underground debris flow disasters, resulting in mud gushing blocking roadways, equipment damage and even casualties, which seriously affect the safe operation of mines. To carry out a risk analysis of underground debris flows in mines, quantify the interactions among risk factors in the process of disasters, and identify the main disaster-causing paths, DEMATEL-ISM was used to analyze 18 risk factors related to material sources, geology, water sources and processes. A multilevel network structure model was constructed, and the model was mapped to a Bayesian network (BN). Based on the N-K model, the degree of risk coupling was calculated, the nodes in the BN were coupled and weighted, and diagnostic reasoning for underground debris flows was realized based on posterior probability. The results showed that the risk of debris flow increases with increasing coupling factor. The factors of water source, geology and ore drawing ranked at the top in terms of the probability change rate of the BN nodes, and a main disaster-causing path was obtained by diagnostic reasoning, which provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of underground debris flow prevention and control measures.

采用自然崩落法开采的矿井容易发生井下泥石流灾害，造成涌泥堵塞巷道、设备损坏甚至人员伤亡，严重影响矿井安全生产。为了对矿山井下泥石流灾害进行风险分析，量化灾害发生过程中各风险因素之间的相互作用，明确主要致灾路径，本文采用 DEMATEL-ISM 分析方法，分析了与物源、地质、水源、工艺等相关的 18 个风险因素。构建了多层次网络结构模型，并将该模型映射到贝叶斯网络（BN）。在 N-K 模型的基础上，计算了风险耦合度，对 BN 中的节点进行耦合和加权，并根据后验概率实现了地下泥石流的诊断推理。结果表明，泥石流风险随着耦合系数的增加而增加。水源、地质、拉矿等因素在 BN 节点概率变化率中排名靠前，通过诊断推理得到了主要致灾路径，为制定地下泥石流防治措施提供了理论依据。

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引用次数: 0

Effects of wire rope isolators on seismic life-cycle cost of UHV bypass switch 钢丝绳隔离器对超高压旁路开关抗震寿命周期成本的影响

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104917

The seismic isolation devices reduce the seismic vulnerability of the electrical equipment. Accurately assessing the seismic life-cycle cost (SLCC) of the electrical equipment is beneficial in guiding the design and enhancing the seismic resilience of electrical substations and converter stations. To evaluate the effects of the isolator devices on the seismic life-cycle cost of electrical equipment, a SLCC evaluation model was proposed in this study, and the evaluation was conducted on an ultra-high voltage (UHV) bypass switch (BPS) with wire rope isolators (WRI). The model takes into account equipment purchase, maintenance, transportation and installation costs and indirect losses caused by power outages. Afterward, the SLCC and break-even time of the UHV BPS with and without WRIs in different regions were analyzed. The results indicate that beyond the break-even time, the BPS with WRIs becomes more economically viable. Moreover, its economic viability increases as the service life extends. Therefore, in high seismic cost risk areas, it is recommended to adopt seismic isolation devices to ensure the secure and economically efficient operation of electrical equipment.

地震隔离装置可降低电气设备的地震脆弱性。准确评估电气设备的地震寿命周期成本（SLCC）有利于指导变电站和换流站的设计并提高其抗震能力。为了评估隔震装置对电气设备抗震寿命周期成本的影响，本研究提出了一个 SLCC 评估模型，并对带有钢丝绳隔震装置（WRI）的超高压旁路开关（BPS）进行了评估。该模型考虑了设备采购、维护、运输和安装成本以及停电造成的间接损失。随后，分析了不同地区带或不带钢丝绳隔离器的特高压旁路开关（BPS）的 SLCC 和盈亏平衡时间。结果表明，超过盈亏平衡时间后，带 WRI 的 BPS 在经济上更加可行。此外，随着服务寿命的延长，其经济可行性也会增加。因此，在地震成本高风险地区，建议采用地震隔离装置，以确保电气设备的安全和经济高效运行。

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引用次数: 0

Strategic hazard mitigation planning 减灾战略规划

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104923

A multitude of studies have emerged in recent years that examined the quality of hazard mitigation plans. This study adds to the existing body of research by examining the quality of mitigation strategies, associated mitigation actions, and adherence to strategic planning principles. The study reviewed 64 local Louisiana hazard mitigation plans producing a dataset of 7729 proposed mitigation actions. Mitigation actions were assigned one or more FEMA project codes as well as one of six government powers. Comparative statistics revealed that coastal and inland parishes do not propose distinctly different mitigation plans despite differences in local risk and vulnerability profiles. While plans contained highly similar types of proposed mitigation actions, the majority of proposed mitigation actions consisted of building and infrastructure projects. Furthermore, hazard mitigation plans were largely aspirational in nature and lacked a true strategic roadmap for future risk reduction.

近年来出现了许多研究，对减灾计划的质量进行了考察。本研究通过考察减灾战略的质量、相关的减灾行动以及对战略规划原则的遵守情况，对现有的研究成果进行了补充。这项研究审查了路易斯安那州的 64 个地方减灾计划，产生了一个包含 7729 项拟议减灾行动的数据集。减灾行动被赋予了一个或多个联邦紧急事务管理局项目代码以及六种政府权力之一。比较统计显示，尽管地方风险和脆弱性概况存在差异，但沿海和内陆教区提出的减灾计划并无明显不同。虽然计划中包含的拟议减灾行动类型非常相似，但大多数拟议减灾行动都由建筑和基础设施项目组成。此外，减灾计划在很大程度上是愿望性的，缺乏未来降低风险的真正战略路线图。

引用次数: 0

WASH recommendations for improving disaster preparedness and recovery in schools in Indonesia 关于改善印度尼西亚学校备灾和灾后恢复工作的讲卫生运动建议

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104924

Access to functional and clean toilets which maintain privacy and dignity and support girls’ Menstrual hygiene management (MHM) plays a crucial role to getting girls back to school post-disaster. This could also help in managing feelings of shame and disgust experienced when using toilets in schools in post disaster settings. In this paper, we report on our assessment of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) facilities in schools three-years post the 2018 multi-hazard event in Indonesia. We used a mixed-methods approach using visual observations, interviews with school principals, surveys with schoolgirls and focus group discussions with schoolgirls and teachers to understand the lived experiences of students using toilets at school. Our results highlight that across schools descriptive and injunctive social norms were supportive of littering, inadequate toilet facilities for girls to manage their menstruation and bullying and antisocial behaviour by opening toilet doors while the facilities were occupied. Based on these results, we developed two types of interventions, physical and behavioural, piloted in three schools to increase WASH and MHM awareness and the safety of sanitation facilities. Our interventions showed that approaches for WASH interventions in schools can only be designed if we understand the local barriers to carrying out interventions that integrate maintenance plans. We provide recommendations to support practitioners in mitigating risk and improving circumstances for girls in schools in Indonesia, which have the potential to address SDG 4 on inclusive and equitable education and SDG 5 on gender equality and girls’ empowerment.

使用功能齐全、干净整洁的厕所，既能维护隐私和尊严，又能帮助女孩进行经期卫生管理 (MHM)，这对灾后女孩重返校园起着至关重要的作用。在灾后环境中，这也有助于减轻女孩在使用学校厕所时的羞耻感和厌恶感。在本文中，我们报告了 2018 年印度尼西亚多重灾害事件发生三年后，我们对学校中的水、环境卫生和个人卫生（WASH）设施进行的评估。我们采用了一种混合方法，通过目视观察、对校长的访谈、对女学生的调查以及对女学生和教师的焦点小组讨论，来了解学生在学校使用厕所的生活体验。我们的研究结果表明，在各所学校，描述性和强制性社会规范支持乱扔垃圾、厕所设施不足导致女生月经不调，以及在厕所有人的情况下打开厕所门的欺凌和反社会行为。基于这些结果，我们制定了物理和行为两类干预措施，并在三所学校进行试点，以提高讲卫生运动和女性健康管理意识以及卫生设施的安全性。我们的干预措施表明，只有了解了当地在实施结合维护计划的干预措施方面存在的障碍，才能设计出学校讲卫生运动干预措施的方法。我们提出了一些建议，以支持实践者降低风险并改善印度尼西亚学校女童的境况，这有可能实现关于包容性和公平教育的可持续发展目标 4 以及关于性别平等和女童赋权的可持续发展目标 5。

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引用次数: 0

Quantitative assessment of congestion diffusion and cascading effect under rainfall-flood disasters: A case study of Nanjing, China 定量评估降雨-洪水灾害下的拥堵扩散和连带效应：中国南京案例研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104915

Urban road networks are frequently disrupted by flooding rainfall-flood disasters, which can cause severe traffic disruptions and leading to traffic congestion due to cascading effect. This paper investigates the reliability issues under rainfall-flood conditions. A coupled model, integrating a rainfall-flood model with an improved cascading failure model, is proposed to assess how rainfall intensities and flooding will influence traffic congestion and bring network instability. Utilizing an improved Nonlinear Load-Capacity model, we quantify the impact of congestion and analyze cascading processes under various rainfall-flood conditions. The case study in Nanjing, China reveal that, when congestion causes network pressure to exceed the traffic percolation threshold, traffic congestion diffusion becomes more pronounced, putting excessive strain on other passable roads. Network cascading failures due to traffic congestion diffusion can lead to excessive focus on the remaining passable roads, resulting in a sharp increase in the average importance. The significance of this work lies in its provision of an effective method for predicting potential network disruptions and cascading failures in advance, thereby enhancing post-disaster road operations.

城市道路网络经常受到降雨-洪水灾害的干扰，这会造成严重的交通中断，并因连锁效应而导致交通拥堵。本文研究了降雨-洪水条件下的可靠性问题。本文提出了一个将降雨-洪水模型与改进的级联故障模型相结合的耦合模型，以评估降雨强度和洪水将如何影响交通拥堵并带来网络不稳定性。利用改进的非线性负载-容量模型，我们量化了交通拥堵的影响，并分析了各种降雨-洪水条件下的级联过程。中国南京的案例研究表明，当拥堵导致网络压力超过交通渗透阈值时，交通拥堵扩散会变得更加明显，给其他可通行道路带来过大压力。交通拥堵扩散导致的网络级联故障会使剩余的可通行道路过度集中，导致平均重要性急剧上升。这项工作的意义在于提供了一种有效的方法，可以提前预测潜在的网络中断和级联故障，从而加强灾后道路运营。

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引用次数: 0

Covid-19 and intra-household financial coping strategies in Pakistan 巴基斯坦的 Covid-19 和家庭内部财务应对策略

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104908

The economic challenges due to the Covid-19 are likely to be acuter in developing countries as their population predominantly relies on informal activities not protected through insurance or government support. To understand how people are coping with the Covid-19 challenges, this study investigates seven important financial coping strategies of households in Pakistan using a nationally representative large dataset of 6000 households. The data was collected by the government right after the acute stage of the Covid-19 to study the economic implications of pandemic. By using the binary logit regressions our results show that households exposed to a severe negative Covid-19 shock have higher odds of using their savings or investments, acquiring loans, quitting education of their children, not paying their utility bills, and selling their productive assets in comparison to the households unexposed to a severe Covid-19 shock. Furthermore, a gender-based comparison between severely affected male and female-headed households reveals that female-headed households are two times less likely to discontinue the education of their children, obtain informal loans, and sell their productive assets to cope with the Covid-19 shock. This reflects better financial management among female as compared to male-headed households. Lastly, compared to rural households, urban-affected households have higher odds of acquiring a formal loan. The findings highlight the severity of the pandemic in a developing country and call for a swift and targeted government response to ensure minimum well-being of the households.

在发展中国家，Covid-19 带来的经济挑战可能会更加严峻，因为这些国家的人口主要依赖于非正规活动，而这些活动得不到保险或政府支持的保护。为了了解人们如何应对 Covid-19 带来的挑战，本研究利用一个包含 6000 个家庭的具有全国代表性的大型数据集，调查了巴基斯坦家庭的七种重要财务应对策略。这些数据由政府在 Covid-19 急性期后立即收集，以研究大流行病的经济影响。通过使用二元对数回归，我们的结果表明，与未受 Covid-19 严重负面冲击的家庭相比，受 Covid-19 严重负面冲击的家庭动用储蓄或投资、获得贷款、放弃子女教育、不支付水电费和出售生产性资产的几率更高。此外，对受严重影响的男户主家庭和女户主家庭进行的性别比较显示，女户主家庭中断子女教育、获得非正规贷款和出售生产性资产以应对 Covid-19 冲击的可能性要低两倍。这反映出与男性户主家庭相比，女性户主家庭的财务管理能力更强。最后，与农村家庭相比，城市受灾家庭获得正规贷款的几率更高。研究结果凸显了这一流行病在发展中国家的严重性，呼吁政府迅速采取有针对性的应对措施，以确保家庭的最低福利。

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引用次数: 0

What you don't know can't help you: Public awareness about social and green infrastructure 你不知道的东西帮不了你：公众对社会和绿色基础设施的认识

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104891

引用次数: 0

Emerging place governance to lost places for communities: Government planning and citizen-driven placemaking in the disaster memorial parks after the 2011 Japan tsunami 新出现的地方治理，为社区找回失去的地方：2011 年日本海啸后灾害纪念公园中的政府规划和公民驱动的地方建设

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104907

Physical destruction, land use management, residential buyouts, and residential relocation following disasters disconnects people and places. Previous studies have revealed the unintended negative effects of residential buyouts and displacements, such as the reproduction of vulnerability, along with social injustice and also suggested that places determine the critical elements of long-term community recovery. We explored how government place-based planning and citizen-driven placemaking transform place identity of lost places after the 2011 Japan tsunami. We selected tsunami reconstruction memorial parks as lost places for local communities, and analyzed government planning reports, interviewed citizen-driven placemakers, and conducted questionnaire survey to clarify residents’ perception of place. Our results showed that the sense of belonging was determined by their sense of place in relation to memorial parks, as “part of the everyday landscape,” “nostalgia,” and “symbol of reconstruction.” We also found that citizen-driven placemaking embodied the concept of disaster memorial parks developed by government planning: requiem, commemoration, symbol of reconstruction. These results suggest that citizen-driven placemaking can potentially serve as a driving force to transform a sense of place that enhances the sense of belonging to lost places. We conclude that local authorities must pay attention to the fluctuation in the meaning of lost places that may influence long-term community recovery. Governments, civic organizations, and locals need to promote collaboration and pursue multi-stakeholder land use governance which can enhance community resilience.

灾后的物质破坏、土地使用管理、住宅收购和住宅搬迁使人与地方脱节。以往的研究揭示了住宅收购和搬迁带来的意想不到的负面影响，如脆弱性的再现以及社会不公，同时也表明场所决定了社区长期恢复的关键因素。我们探讨了在 2011 年日本海啸之后，政府基于地方的规划和公民驱动的地方建设如何改变失去的地方的地方认同。我们选取了海啸重建纪念公园作为当地社区的失落之地，通过分析政府规划报告、访谈公民驱动的场所营造者以及开展问卷调查来厘清居民对场所的感知。结果显示，居民的归属感取决于他们对纪念公园的场所感，即 "日常景观的一部分"、"乡愁 "和 "重建的象征"。我们还发现，由市民推动的场所营造体现了政府规划所提出的灾难纪念公园的概念：安魂曲、纪念、重建的象征。这些结果表明，以公民为主导的场所营造有可能成为改变场所感的推动力，从而增强人们对失去的场所的归属感。我们的结论是，地方当局必须关注失地意义的波动，这可能会影响社区的长期恢复。政府、民间组织和当地居民需要促进合作，追求多方利益相关者的土地利用治理，这可以增强社区的复原力。

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引用次数: 0

Iranian farmers' response to the drought crisis: How can the consequences of drought be reduced? 伊朗农民应对干旱危机：如何减轻干旱的后果？

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104910

Climate change (CC) is an undeniable global phenomenon, impacting various regions, including Iran. Key components of CC, including the increase in greenhouse gases, rising temperatures, and fluctuations in precipitation patterns, are expected to significantly reduce agricultural crop yields in the near future. In response, identifying effective adaptation strategies is critical for mitigating these adverse effects. This study investigates the role of environmental values, risk perception, and psychological distance in shaping Iranian farmers’ adaptation strategies to CC. A sample of 390 farmers from Shushtar County in southwestern Iran was selected through a multi-stage stratified sampling method. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), the analysis revealed complex interrelationships between environmental values (biospheric, altruistic, and egoistic), beliefs, risk perception, psychological distance, and farmers' adaptation responses to CC. Furthermore, the results indicated that the study variables explain 67.6 % of the variance in farmers' adaptive behaviors, with belief in CC emerging as the most influential factor. These findings not only enrich the current body of literature but also provide actionable insights for policymakers to foster adaptive strategies among farmers.

气候变化（CC）是一个不可否认的全球现象，影响着包括伊朗在内的各个地区。气候变化的主要因素包括温室气体增加、气温升高和降水模式波动，预计在不久的将来会显著降低农作物产量。为此，确定有效的适应战略对于减轻这些不利影响至关重要。本研究调查了环境价值观、风险认知和心理距离在影响伊朗农民对气候变化的适应策略中的作用。通过多阶段分层抽样法，从伊朗西南部舒什塔尔县选取了 390 位农民作为样本。利用结构方程模型（SEM），分析揭示了环境价值观（生物圈、利他和利己）、信念、风险认知、心理距离和农民对 CC 的适应反应之间复杂的相互关系。此外，研究结果表明，研究变量解释了农民适应行为中 67.6% 的变异，其中对 CC 的信念是影响最大的因素。这些研究结果不仅丰富了现有文献，还为政策制定者提供了可操作的见解，以促进农民采取适应性策略。

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引用次数: 0

An index-based multi-hazard risk assessment method for prioritisation of existing bridge portfolios 基于指数的多灾害风险评估方法，用于确定现有桥梁组合的优先次序

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104895

In recent years, several catastrophic collapses of existing bridges have highlighted the need for rapid risk analysis methods aimed at supporting infrastructure managers in the prioritisation of detailed assessments and, if any, risk mitigation actions. A large percentage of existing road bridges were built between the 1960s and 1980s, having thus already reached or even exceeded their design lifetime. Several studies have also shown that bridges often collapse due to either natural or human-related events, such as floods, collisions or overloading that, in addition to earthquakes, should be duly considered in risk assessment. This calls for multi-hazard approaches that provide an integrated perspective of the risk of bridge portfolios, to identify critical structures to support decision-makers. This study proposes a multi-hazard risk-based prioritisation methodology for application to a large number of bridges under limited level of knowledge. Specifically, the risk level is quantified through indices, accounting for uncertainties, that are used for comparative purposes among bridges. The methodology is applied to a highway bridge portfolio located in northern Italy, producing a risk-based ranking that is critically discussed. Analysis results are then compared with the outcome of the current Italian guidelines for safety assessment and maintenance of existing bridges.

近年来，现有桥梁发生的几起灾难性坍塌事故凸显了对快速风险分析方法的需求，这些方法旨在支持基础设施管理者确定详细评估的优先次序，并在必要时采取风险缓解行动。很大一部分现有公路桥梁建于 20 世纪 60 年代至 80 年代，因此已经达到甚至超过了设计使用寿命。一些研究还表明，桥梁倒塌往往是由于自然或人为事件造成的，如洪水、碰撞或超载，除地震外，这些事件也应在风险评估中予以适当考虑。这就需要采用多灾害方法，对桥梁组合的风险进行综合分析，以确定关键结构，为决策者提供支持。本研究提出了一种基于多种灾害风险的优先级排序方法，适用于知识水平有限的大量桥梁。具体来说，风险水平通过指数进行量化，并考虑不确定性，用于桥梁之间的比较。该方法适用于位于意大利北部的公路桥梁组合，产生了一个基于风险的排名，并对其进行了批判性讨论。然后将分析结果与意大利现行的现有桥梁安全评估和维护指南的结果进行比较。

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引用次数: 0