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A review on the prevention and control of flash flood hazards on a global scale: Early warning systems, vulnerability assessment, environmental, and public health burden
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105024
Ghazi Al-Rawas , Mohammad Reza Nikoo , Malik Al-Wardy
Flash floods' frequency and intensity are increasing because of climate change and their impact on communities. This paper aimed to critically review>100 studies about the current evidence of flash floods across different global geographies, focusing on early warning systems, risk and vulnerability assessment, attributable mortality, toxic chemical exposures, and burden of diseases. Considering the infancy of flash flood studies, early warning systems have been well studied mostly in Europe (34 %), China (30 %), and South Asia (13 %). Evidence shows an increasing risk and vulnerability to flash floods. However, there are limited theoretical bases for selecting flash flood vulnerability/risk indicators and a lack of validation of the proposed indices. It was also found that flash floods not only cause increased death among developing countries but are also associated with the incidence of water-borne (e.g., Cholera) and vector-borne (e.g., malaria) diseases. There is evidence of a release of non-threshold toxic chemical contaminants into the environment during flash floods. The study also revealed the release of high-concentration levels of antibiotics in water bodies during flash flood events. Therefore, quantitative health risk assessment and epidemiological studies recommended to understand better the long-term health outcomes associated with these exposures. We recommend that future studies consider applying evidence-based variables and high-resolution data to develop early warning systems, especially in developing countries. Incorporating technologically based early warning systems can enhance lead times and issue reliable alerts and communications while reducing the number of deaths, diseases, and chemical contaminations in flood-prone areas.
{"title":"A review on the prevention and control of flash flood hazards on a global scale: Early warning systems, vulnerability assessment, environmental, and public health burden","authors":"Ghazi Al-Rawas ,&nbsp;Mohammad Reza Nikoo ,&nbsp;Malik Al-Wardy","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flash floods' frequency and intensity are increasing because of climate change and their impact on communities. This paper aimed to critically review&gt;100 studies about the current evidence of flash floods across different global geographies, focusing on early warning systems, risk and vulnerability assessment, attributable mortality, toxic chemical exposures, and burden of diseases. Considering the infancy of flash flood studies, early warning systems have been well studied mostly in Europe (34 %), China (30 %), and South Asia (13 %). Evidence shows an increasing risk and vulnerability to flash floods. However, there are limited theoretical bases for selecting flash flood vulnerability/risk indicators and a lack of validation of the proposed indices. It was also found that flash floods not only cause increased death among developing countries but are also associated with the incidence of water-borne (e.g., Cholera) and vector-borne (e.g., malaria) diseases. There is evidence of a release of non-threshold toxic chemical contaminants into the environment during flash floods. The study also revealed the release of high-concentration levels of antibiotics in water bodies during flash flood events. Therefore, quantitative health risk assessment and epidemiological studies recommended to understand better the long-term health outcomes associated with these exposures. We recommend that future studies consider applying evidence-based variables and high-resolution data to develop early warning systems, especially in developing countries. Incorporating technologically based early warning systems can enhance lead times and issue reliable alerts and communications while reducing the number of deaths, diseases, and chemical contaminations in flood-prone areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 105024"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142756685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How did COVID-19 pandemic impact the social integration process of poverty alleviation relocation? Insight from four rural communities
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105001
Wen Hu , Weiyi Li , Fang Zou , Yi Jiang , Yuquan Xie , Michio Ubaura
As China declared COVID-19 a "Category B disease," marking the conclusion of a three-year pandemic prevention and control effort, rural communities—especially those involved in Poverty Alleviation Relocation (PAR) projects—have received limited research attention despite significant economic and psychological impacts. This study investigates how COVID-19 affected social integration between locals and migrants within these relocated rural communities. Using a PAR community typology based on spatial and demographic patterns, four types were identified: centralized, adjacent, enclave, and infill. Socio-spatial isolation indices assessed social and spatial isolation levels among migrants across three phases: 2019 (before the pandemic), 2021 (during the pandemic), and 2023 (after the pandemic). Comparative analysis across phases and community types revealed varying impacts of COVID-19 prevention measures. Key findings include:
1) COVID-19 temporarily enhanced social integration, with a V-shaped evolution in social isolation levels—an initial decrease followed by an increase.
2) Centralized communities demonstrated the most sustained integration, while adjacent and infill types were moderately affected in the short term, and enclave communities were the least affected.
3) Factors such as "inequality between inside and outside groups," enhanced telecommunications, pandemic-related public activities, and spatial characteristics promoted interaction between locals and migrants.
This study enriches the understanding of COVID-19's social impacts on vulnerable communities, offering insights for disaster risk assessment and sustainable development strategies in pro-poor communities.
{"title":"How did COVID-19 pandemic impact the social integration process of poverty alleviation relocation? Insight from four rural communities","authors":"Wen Hu ,&nbsp;Weiyi Li ,&nbsp;Fang Zou ,&nbsp;Yi Jiang ,&nbsp;Yuquan Xie ,&nbsp;Michio Ubaura","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As China declared COVID-19 a \"Category B disease,\" marking the conclusion of a three-year pandemic prevention and control effort, rural communities—especially those involved in Poverty Alleviation Relocation (PAR) projects—have received limited research attention despite significant economic and psychological impacts. This study investigates how COVID-19 affected social integration between locals and migrants within these relocated rural communities. Using a PAR community typology based on spatial and demographic patterns, four types were identified: centralized, adjacent, enclave, and infill. Socio-spatial isolation indices assessed social and spatial isolation levels among migrants across three phases: 2019 (before the pandemic), 2021 (during the pandemic), and 2023 (after the pandemic). Comparative analysis across phases and community types revealed varying impacts of COVID-19 prevention measures. Key findings include:</div><div>1) COVID-19 temporarily enhanced social integration, with a V-shaped evolution in social isolation levels—an initial decrease followed by an increase.</div><div>2) Centralized communities demonstrated the most sustained integration, while adjacent and infill types were moderately affected in the short term, and enclave communities were the least affected.</div><div>3) Factors such as \"inequality between inside and outside groups,\" enhanced telecommunications, pandemic-related public activities, and spatial characteristics promoted interaction between locals and migrants.</div><div>This study enriches the understanding of COVID-19's social impacts on vulnerable communities, offering insights for disaster risk assessment and sustainable development strategies in pro-poor communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 105001"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142758948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using simulations of future extreme weather events to escape the resilience trap: Experimental evidence from Hong Kong
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105020
T. van Gevelt , J. Yang , K.N. Chan , L. Li , F. Williamson , B.G. McAdoo , A.D. Switzer
Hong Kong is a hyper-dense coastal city that has long learned to live with a potentially disastrous extreme weather event: tropical cyclones. This was largely a reactionary process, with investments in soft and hard infrastructure made in the aftermath of devastating tropical cyclones. While the experiences of devastating tropical cyclones remain strong in the collective memory of the city, Hong Kong's present-day resilience has led to complacency, especially among the general public. We suggest that Hong Kong may be caught in a resilience trap, where previous success in building resilience may be hindering the city's ability to adapt to the impacts of future tropical cyclones. We use downward counterfactual modelling and an experimental framework to test whether simulating and visualizing the impacts of a future tropical cyclone can substitute for first-hand experience and allow individuals to experientially process the expected future impacts of tropical cyclones. Using experimental data collected from a representative sample of the general population (n = 1240), we find that simulating the impacts of a future tropical cyclone can partially substitute for first-hand experience, increase risk perceptions, and help Hong Kong escape the resilience trap.
{"title":"Using simulations of future extreme weather events to escape the resilience trap: Experimental evidence from Hong Kong","authors":"T. van Gevelt ,&nbsp;J. Yang ,&nbsp;K.N. Chan ,&nbsp;L. Li ,&nbsp;F. Williamson ,&nbsp;B.G. McAdoo ,&nbsp;A.D. Switzer","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105020","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105020","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hong Kong is a hyper-dense coastal city that has long learned to live with a potentially disastrous extreme weather event: tropical cyclones. This was largely a reactionary process, with investments in soft and hard infrastructure made in the aftermath of devastating tropical cyclones. While the experiences of devastating tropical cyclones remain strong in the collective memory of the city, Hong Kong's present-day resilience has led to complacency, especially among the general public. We suggest that Hong Kong may be caught in a resilience trap, where previous success in building resilience may be hindering the city's ability to adapt to the impacts of future tropical cyclones. We use downward counterfactual modelling and an experimental framework to test whether simulating and visualizing the impacts of a future tropical cyclone can substitute for first-hand experience and allow individuals to experientially process the expected future impacts of tropical cyclones. Using experimental data collected from a representative sample of the general population (<em>n</em> = <em>1240</em>), we find that simulating the impacts of a future tropical cyclone can partially substitute for first-hand experience, increase risk perceptions, and help Hong Kong escape the resilience trap.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 105020"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142758950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Profiling households through a combined vulnerability and flood exposure index in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105016
Jiachang Tu , Andrea Reimuth , Nivedita Sairam , Heidi Kreibich , Antje Katzschner , Nigel K. Downes , Matthias Garschagen
As climate risks escalate worldwide, comprehending the household-level vulnerability to flood is critical for sustainable adaptation, particularly in rapidly urbanizing cities like Ho Chi Minh City. This study develops a household vulnerability index to a flood exposure index within the frameworks of contextual vulnerability and the risk-hazard model. Using six sub-components of vulnerability, we assess a composite index through a detailed analysis of qualitative and quantitative data collected from a survey of 1000 households across four districts. A hierarchical weighting model and geostatistical analysis tools are employed to calculate the vulnerability index and examine the spatial patterns of vulnerability. The findings reveal three key insights into household-level vulnerability: First, the flood does not directly cause or strongly correlate with vulnerability in the survey households. Second, equal levels of general inequality do not imply similar distributions of vulnerability across specific components and areas. Third, vulnerability and flood risk tend to be more pronounced in urban than rural areas, with notable spatial clustering. This study provides insights that can guide policymakers in prioritizing adaptation, and enhancing understanding of the interactions between social vulnerability, hazard exposure, and household-centered adaptation. The study also highlights important considerations for inequality and climate finance, and underscores the need for future research on vulnerability across multiple scales.
{"title":"Profiling households through a combined vulnerability and flood exposure index in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam","authors":"Jiachang Tu ,&nbsp;Andrea Reimuth ,&nbsp;Nivedita Sairam ,&nbsp;Heidi Kreibich ,&nbsp;Antje Katzschner ,&nbsp;Nigel K. Downes ,&nbsp;Matthias Garschagen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As climate risks escalate worldwide, comprehending the household-level vulnerability to flood is critical for sustainable adaptation, particularly in rapidly urbanizing cities like Ho Chi Minh City. This study develops a household vulnerability index to a flood exposure index within the frameworks of contextual vulnerability and the risk-hazard model. Using six sub-components of vulnerability, we assess a composite index through a detailed analysis of qualitative and quantitative data collected from a survey of 1000 households across four districts. A hierarchical weighting model and geostatistical analysis tools are employed to calculate the vulnerability index and examine the spatial patterns of vulnerability. The findings reveal three key insights into household-level vulnerability: First, the flood does not directly cause or strongly correlate with vulnerability in the survey households. Second, equal levels of general inequality do not imply similar distributions of vulnerability across specific components and areas. Third, vulnerability and flood risk tend to be more pronounced in urban than rural areas, with notable spatial clustering. This study provides insights that can guide policymakers in prioritizing adaptation, and enhancing understanding of the interactions between social vulnerability, hazard exposure, and household-centered adaptation. The study also highlights important considerations for inequality and climate finance, and underscores the need for future research on vulnerability across multiple scales.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 105016"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142756683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Prevalence and predictors of post-traumatic stress disorder among survivors of the 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye: The case of a temporary camp 2023 年土耳其地震幸存者中创伤后应激障碍的患病率和预测因素:临时营地案例
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104976
Edip Kaya , Ebru Inal Onal , Sultanay Fatih , Onur Güler
This study aimed to evaluate the potential prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among survivors of the 2023 Türkiye earthquakes and determine the factors linked to the severity of PTSD. The cross-sectional study was conducted in a temporary camp in Hatay between January 27 and February 2, 2024, approximately one year after the earthquakes. Two researchers visited the camp and offered participation to all the adults who met the study criteria. A total of 412 adults agreed to participate in the study and completed the questionnaire. A survey was used to gather information on various variables related to the context before, during, and after an earthquake. In addition, the Post-Traumatic Diagnostic Scale and the Brief Resilience Scale were used to measure PTSD and resilience, respectively. The screening scale indicated that 17.5 % of participants met the criteria for probable “severe” and 36.2 % met the criteria for probable “moderate to severe” PTSD, approximately 12 months post-earthquake. Multiple linear regression analyses revealed that PTSD was predicted by various factors in the within-, pre-, and post-earthquake periods. Among pre-earthquake variables, sex (β = 0.100, p < 0.05) and history of psychiatric illness (β = 0.098, p < 0.01) predict PTSD. Among within-earthquake variables, severity of earthquake exposure (β = 0.190, p < 0.001) predicted PTSD. Among post-earthquake variables, resilience (β = −0.378, p < 0.001) was negatively associated with severity of PTSD. These findings underscore the significance of considering multiple factors when comprehending and addressing PTSD in the aftermath of a natural disaster.
本研究旨在评估 2023 年土耳其地震幸存者中创伤后应激障碍 (PTSD) 的潜在患病率,并确定与创伤后应激障碍严重程度相关的因素。这项横断面研究于 2024 年 1 月 27 日至 2 月 2 日,即地震发生约一年后,在哈塔伊的一个临时营地进行。两名研究人员访问了营地,并向所有符合研究标准的成年人发出了参加研究的邀请。共有 412 名成年人同意参与研究并填写了调查问卷。调查用于收集地震前、地震期间和地震后与环境有关的各种变量的信息。此外,还使用创伤后诊断量表和简易复原力量表分别测量创伤后应激障碍和复原力。筛查量表显示,在震后约 12 个月,17.5% 的参与者符合可能的 "重度 "创伤后应激障碍标准,36.2% 的参与者符合可能的 "中度至重度 "创伤后应激障碍标准。多元线性回归分析表明,创伤后应激障碍可由震中、震前和震后的各种因素预测。在震前变量中,性别(β = 0.100,p < 0.05)和精神病史(β = 0.098,p < 0.01)可预测创伤后应激障碍。在震内变量中,地震暴露的严重程度(β = 0.190,p < 0.001)可预测创伤后应激障碍。在震后变量中,复原力(β = -0.378,p < 0.001)与创伤后应激障碍的严重程度呈负相关。这些发现强调了在理解和解决自然灾害后创伤后应激障碍时考虑多种因素的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding the involvement/exclusion paradox in disaster volunteering from a field-theoretical perspective 从实地理论角度理解灾害志愿服务中的参与/排斥悖论
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104913
Sandra Maria Pichler
In disasters, volunteers who have not been affiliated to official disaster response organisations are likely to enter the scene. Although such unofficial responders (UR) are increasingly recognised as a valuable resource in both research and practice, their full utilisation, integration, and cooperation with the official response (OR) is rare. Although researchers have increasingly examined the barriers and drivers of UR involvement, this “involvement/exclusion paradox”, coined by Harris et al. (2017), remains puzzling. Applying a field-theoretical perspective, this paper argues that disasters are critical moments in which the field itself is put under pressure at multiple focal points. For instance, UR who enter the scene and try to become involved jeopardize the field: they increase the number of involved agents, increase the competition over symbolic profit, and question the definition of proper disaster response. Taking a case-study of a mudslide disaster in the Austrian Alps, this paper examines the strategies by which OR tame pressure associated with UR. Three strategies were revealed: boundary definition, boundary defence, and boundary opening, which aim at establishing and upholding boundaries by increasing both their robustness and elasticity. The findings contribute to a theoretically underpinned understanding of UR involvement and encourage critical reflection on the relations between UR and OR by revealing tensions and latent conflicts.
在灾害中,未加入官方救灾组织的志愿者很可能会进入现场。尽管在研究和实践中,人们越来越认识到这些非官方响应者(UR)是一种宝贵的资源,但他们的充分利用、整合以及与官方响应者(OR)的合作却很少见。尽管研究人员越来越多地研究了非官方响应者参与的障碍和驱动因素,但哈里斯等人(2017)提出的 "参与/排斥悖论 "仍然令人费解。本文从实地理论的角度出发,认为灾害发生的关键时刻,实地本身会在多个焦点上承受压力。例如,进入现场并试图参与其中的 UR 会危及该领域:他们增加了参与人员的数量,加剧了对象征性利益的争夺,并对正确救灾的定义提出质疑。本文通过对奥地利阿尔卑斯山泥石流灾害的案例研究,探讨了救灾组织如何应对与 UR 相关的压力。本文揭示了三种策略:边界定义、边界防御和边界开放,旨在通过增强边界的稳健性和弹性来建立和维护边界。研究结果有助于从理论上理解 UR 的参与,并通过揭示紧张关系和潜在冲突,鼓励对 UR 与 OR 之间的关系进行批判性反思。
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引用次数: 0
A tropical cyclone risk prediction framework using flood susceptibility and tree-based machine learning models: County-level direct economic loss prediction in Guangdong Province 利用洪水易感性和基于树的机器学习模型的热带气旋风险预测框架:广东省县级直接经济损失预测
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104955
Jian Yang , Sixiao Chen , Yanan Tang , Ping Lu , Sen Lin , Zhongdong Duan , Jinping Ou
Tropical cyclones (TCs), characterized by strong winds, heavy rainfall, storm surges, and flooding, have caused significant economic losses and fatalities in coastal regions globally. However, existing TC risk prediction frameworks often fail to adequately account for the direct impacts of flooding. In this study, we propose integrating flood susceptibility, a critical component of flood early warning systems, into TC risk prediction frameworks. Focusing on Guangdong Province, we employ four tree-based machine learning (ML) models (random forest, extreme gradient boosting, light gradient boosting machine, and categorical boosting) to predict county-level direct economic losses (DELs) based on flood susceptibility, oceanographic-meteorological data, and vulnerability data. These ML models are trained and tested on a dataset of 896 samples, achieving high prediction accuracies, with Pearson correlation coefficients exceeding 0.81 between the predicted and observed DEL values. Among the four models, the light gradient boosting machine demonstrates the best performance, achieving the highest values of R and R2, and the lowest values of MSE, MAE, and MedAE. The integration of flood susceptibility is validated by comparing it with traditional methods that directly incorporate environmental factors. Furthermore, the proposed TC risk prediction framework is applied to forecast the impacts of Super Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018, illustrating its potential ability for “real-time” TC risk assessments. These “real-time” DEL predictions not only estimate potential losses but also facilitate timely interventions, thereby enhancing the practical value of the model for disaster prevention and response.
热带气旋(TC)以强风、暴雨、风暴潮和洪水为特征,给全球沿海地区造成了巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡。然而,现有的热带气旋风险预测框架往往未能充分考虑洪水的直接影响。在本研究中,我们建议将洪水易感性这一洪水预警系统的重要组成部分纳入热带气旋风险预测框架。以广东省为重点,我们采用了四种基于树的机器学习(ML)模型(随机森林、极端梯度提升、轻梯度提升机和分类提升)来预测基于洪水易感性、海洋气象数据和脆弱性数据的县级直接经济损失(DELs)。这些 ML 模型在 896 个样本的数据集上进行了训练和测试,取得了很高的预测精度,预测值和观测值之间的皮尔逊相关系数超过 0.81。在这四个模型中,轻梯度提升机的性能最佳,达到了最高的 R 值和 R2 值,以及最低的 MSE 值、MAE 值和 MedAE 值。通过与直接纳入环境因素的传统方法进行比较,验证了洪水易感性的整合。此外,所提出的热带气旋风险预测框架还被应用于预测 2018 年超强台风 "曼克胡特 "的影响,说明了其在 "实时 "热带气旋风险评估方面的潜在能力。这些 "实时 "DEL 预测不仅能估计潜在损失,还能促进及时干预,从而提高模型在防灾和救灾方面的实用价值。
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引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of flood resilience in Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration 北部湾城市群抗洪能力的时空演变及影响因素
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104905
Jiafeng Deng , Rui Zhang , Sheng Chen , Zhi Li , Liang Gao , Yanping Li , Chunxia Wei
In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization, enhancing flood resilience is essential for mitigating urban flood risk. However, few studies have conducted long-term, cross-scale dynamic evaluations of flood resilience and analyzed its influencing factors and mechanisms. Taking the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration as the study area, a long-term, cross-scale dynamic evaluation index system based on the “Robustness-Resistance-Recovery” (3Rs) framework was developed to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of flood resilience from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, the optimal parameters-based geographical detector model is employed to identify the key influencing factors and mechanisms. The results reveal that pre-flood robustness is lower in coastal areas and higher in inland areas. In the during-flood stage, cities with greater comprehensive power exhibit stronger resistance. Post-flood recovery is higher in city centers and marginal mountainous areas, while coastal and inland low-lying areas show lower recovery. The flood resilience of urban agglomerations has improved in recent years, largely due to the enhancement of urban flood control infrastructure and healthcare capacity. However, disparities between cities persist. From 2000 to 2020, economic factors have been the primary drivers of improved flood resilience, while ecological factors have gained increasing importance over the past decade. These findings provide valuable insights for flood prevention, mitigation, and resilience management in urban agglomerations. The developed dynamic evaluation index system offers a reference framework for evaluating flood resilience in other regions.
在全球气候变化和快速城市化的背景下,提高抗洪能力对于降低城市洪水风险至关重要。然而,很少有研究对抗洪能力进行长期、跨尺度的动态评价,并分析其影响因素和机制。本研究以北部湾城市群为研究区域,基于 "稳健性-抵抗力-恢复力"(3Rs)框架,建立了一个长期、跨尺度的动态评价指标体系,以评估 2000 年至 2020 年洪涝灾害恢复力的时空演变。此外,还采用了基于最优参数的地理探测器模型来确定关键影响因素和机制。结果表明,洪水前沿海地区的抗洪能力较低,内陆地区较高。在洪灾期间,综合实力较强的城市表现出较强的抗灾能力。洪灾后,城市中心区和边缘山区的恢复能力较强,而沿海和内陆低洼地区的恢复能力较弱。近年来,城市群的抗洪能力有所提高,这主要归功于城市防洪基础设施和医疗保健能力的增强。然而,城市之间的差距依然存在。从 2000 年到 2020 年,经济因素一直是提高抗洪能力的主要驱动力,而生态因素在过去十年中则变得越来越重要。这些发现为城市群的防洪、减灾和抗洪管理提供了宝贵的启示。所开发的动态评估指标体系为评估其他地区的抗洪能力提供了参考框架。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond social distancing: A phenomenological study of Iranian housewives' lived experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic in Tabriz 超越社会距离:对大不里士 COVID-19 大流行期间伊朗家庭主妇生活经历的现象学研究
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104968
Samad Rasoulzadeh Aghdam , Behnam Ghasemzadeh , Zahra Sadeqi
The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting social distancing requirements dramatically changed daily life, with distinct effects on housewives due to their traditional family roles. This study examined how housewives experienced social distancing policies and their trust in government actions during the early stages of the pandemic. Using a phenomenological approach, we conducted virtual focus group interviews through social media with 12 married housewives in Tabriz. Participants were selected through snowball sampling, with 5–8 individuals per session for effective group management. We analyzed the WhatsApp interviews, conducted from mid to late April 2022, using the seven-step Claisie method. The findings revealed that socio-economic pressures from the pandemic increased household tensions, particularly through verbal and nonverbal conflicts. Key challenges included adapting to virtual family communication instead of face-to-face interaction, dealing with anxiety about pandemic uncertainties, managing children's education, coping with family members' job losses, handling reduced household income, and taking on additional unpaid work. Participants also expressed skepticism toward official statistics, news reports, and government statements about controlling the pandemic. Other significant issues included changes in recreational activities, modifications to social ceremonies, a sense of personal insecurity, and declining trust in institutions.
COVID-19 大流行和由此产生的社会疏远要求极大地改变了人们的日常生活,由于家庭主妇的传统家庭角色,她们受到了明显的影响。本研究探讨了家庭主妇在疫情初期如何体验社会隔离政策以及她们对政府行为的信任。我们采用现象学方法,通过社交媒体对大不里士的 12 位已婚家庭主妇进行了虚拟焦点小组访谈。我们通过 "滚雪球 "抽样的方式选取参与者,为了有效地进行小组管理,每次抽取 5-8 人。我们采用克来西七步法对 2022 年 4 月中下旬进行的 WhatsApp 访谈进行了分析。研究结果表明,大流行病带来的社会经济压力加剧了家庭矛盾,尤其是语言和非语言冲突。主要挑战包括适应虚拟家庭交流而非面对面交流、应对对大流行病不确定性的焦虑、管理子女教育、应对家庭成员失业、处理家庭收入减少以及承担额外的无偿工作。参与者还对官方统计数据、新闻报道和政府关于控制大流行的声明表示怀疑。其他重要问题包括娱乐活动的变化、社会仪式的改变、个人不安全感以及对机构信任度的下降。
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引用次数: 0
Smart management of emergencies in the agricultural, forestry, and animal production domain: Tackling evolving risks in the climate change era 对农业、林业和畜牧业生产领域的突发事件进行智能管理:应对气候变化时代不断变化的风险
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105015
Stefano Cesco , Davide Ascoli , Lucia Bailoni , Gian Battista Bischetti , Pietro Buzzini , Monica Cairoli , Luisella Celi , Giuseppe Corti , Marco Marchetti , Giacomo Scarascia Mugnozza , Simone Orlandini , Andrea Porceddu , Giovanni Gigliotti , Fabrizio Mazzetto
The agricultural, forestry, and animal production domain (AFA domain) plays an essential role in meeting global needs and supporting livelihoods while facing escalating challenges from climate change-induced impacts and extreme natural events. This perspective advocates for urgent strategies to enhance resilience through effective emergency management and prevention measures tailored to this critical domain. The analysis here exposed, which includes elements of ontology and the conceptual approach of an emergency management system encompassing both restoration and prevention aspects, entails three case studies across the AFA domain. Each case study, described by location, timing, nature, and consequences, critically evaluates the implemented risk prevention measures, details the emergency and recovery actions, and highlights shortcomings in response efforts. The analysis, incorporating a retrospective comparative component based on the proposed conceptual model, highlights the importance of identifying lessons learned and potential future applications. It emphasizes the urgent need for a well-structured emergency management strategy that integrates risk mapping and advanced technology to ensure timely and effective responses. The active engagement of domain professionals (agronomists, foresters, animal production doctors) and scholars of AFA domain sciences, as either farm owners or technical advisors, is crucial to optimize intervention strategies. This engagement is especially important for enhancing resilience during recovery phases, aligning with the best international practices such as making use of local knowledge and citizen engagement strategies. Comprehensive training initiatives, also adopting innovative formats and tools including micro-credentials, e-learning platforms, and the applications of generative Artificial Intelligence for learning assistance, as well as new research insights are strategic for coordinated and effective emergency responses across all stakeholders. Collaboration between the different production systems and areas of expertise, raising awareness of the distinction between Civil Protection and Production Protection and fostering their close interconnection, is essential for effective emergency response and long-term resilience.
农业、林业和畜牧业生产领域(AFA 领域)在满足全球需求和支持生计方面发挥着至关重要的作用,同时也面临着气候变化诱发的影响和极端自然事件带来的不断升级的挑战。这一观点主张采取紧急战略,通过针对这一关键领域的有效应急管理和预防措施来提高抗灾能力。本文所介绍的分析包括本体论要素以及包含恢复和预防两方面内容的应急管理系统的概念方法,涉及整个非洲渔业局领域的三个案例研究。每个案例研究都按地点、时间、性质和后果进行了描述,对已实施的风险预防措施进行了严格评估,详细介绍了应急和恢复行动,并强调了应对工作中的不足之处。该分析在拟议概念模型的基础上加入了回顾性比较部分,强调了总结经验教训和未来潜在应用的重要性。它强调迫切需要一个结构合理的应急管理战略,将风险测绘与先进技术相结合,以确保及时有效的响应。作为农场主或技术顾问,领域专业人士(农学家、林学家、畜牧业医生)和全民教育领域科学学者的积极参与对于优化干预战略至关重要。这种参与对于提高恢复阶段的抗灾能力尤为重要,符合利用当地知识和公民参与战略等最佳国际做法。全面的培训举措也采用创新的形式和工具,包括微证书、电子学习平台、应用生成式人工智能进行学习辅导,以及新的研究见解,这些对于所有利益攸关方协调有效地采取应急措施具有战略意义。不同生产系统和专业领域之间的合作,提高对公民保护和生产保护之间区别的认识,促进它们之间的密切联系,对于有效的应急响应和长期恢复能力至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
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International journal of disaster risk reduction
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