International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第2页

Construction material supply for post-Cyclone Gabrielle transport infrastructure recovery in New Zealand: Challenges and strategies 新西兰加布里埃尔飓风后交通基础设施恢复的建筑材料供应：挑战和策略

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106005

Kenan Liu , Alice Chang-Richards , Seosamh B. Costello , Cécile L'Hermitte , Nan Li

A shortage of local construction materials and inefficient supply chains can severely impede post-disaster reconstruction and recovery. Yet, the extant literature offers limited insights into the material supply processes in relation to transport infrastructure recovery and extreme weather events. To address the gap, this paper adopted a case study approach, including literature reviews, semi-structured interviews and on-site observations, to examine the key challenges impeding material supply for the rapid recovery of transport networks following the 2023 Cyclone Gabrielle in New Zealand. Intervention measures and their effectiveness were also evaluated. The findings revealed that high-specification aggregates (e.g., sealing chips), asphalt concrete and rock armour experienced various supply issues, such as shortages, high haulage costs, delivery delays, and substandard quality. These problems primarily stemmed from six critical challenges, which fall into four domains: 1) geo-conditions, 2) resource management and allocation prioritisation, 3) supply chain planning and development, and 4) project governance and procurement management. The challenges interacted to create systematic complexity in material supply systems. While the intervention measures demonstrated promise in addressing these issues, the persistence of adverse outcomes underscores the necessity for future efforts to shift the focus upstream toward prevention and drive broader systemic transformation. Accordingly, a strategic framework was proposed to enhance construction material supply for rapid and effective transport infrastructure recovery after future extreme weather events.

当地建筑材料短缺和供应链效率低下可能严重阻碍灾后重建和恢复。然而，现有文献对与运输基础设施恢复和极端天气事件相关的材料供应过程提供了有限的见解。为了解决这一差距，本文采用了案例研究方法，包括文献综述、半结构化访谈和现场观察，以研究2023年新西兰“加布里埃尔”气旋袭击后阻碍运输网络快速恢复的材料供应的主要挑战。并对干预措施及其效果进行了评价。调查结果显示，高规格骨料（如密封片）、沥青混凝土和岩石装甲经历了各种供应问题，如短缺、高运输成本、交货延迟和质量不合格。这些问题主要源于六个关键挑战，分为四个领域：1)地理条件，2)资源管理和分配优先级，3)供应链规划和发展，4)项目治理和采购管理。这些挑战相互作用，使材料供应系统变得复杂。虽然干预措施显示出解决这些问题的希望，但持续存在的不良后果强调了未来努力将重点转向上游的预防和推动更广泛的系统转型的必要性。因此，提出了一个战略框架，以加强建筑材料供应，以便在未来极端天气事件发生后快速有效地恢复交通基础设施。

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引用次数: 0

Larung Sesaji as an indigenous community resilience practice at Mount Kelud, Indonesia Larung Sesaji是印度尼西亚克鲁德山的土著社区恢复力实践

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106006

Dedi Sasmito Utomo , Sumarmi , Syamsul Bachri

This study investigates the Larung Sesaji ritual as a community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR) practice at Mount Kelud, Indonesia. For communities living near this active volcano, the annual ritual acts as a cultural mechanism that boosts their disaster preparedness. Using a qualitative ethnographic approach, data were gathered through in-depth interviews with four key informants, participatory observations, and document analyses. This research offers a novel multidimensional analysis showing that Larung Sesaji enhances community resilience across four interconnected dimensions: psychological benefits that support emotional regulation and hope through religious beliefs; social bonding and intergenerational social capital development via collective work practices (gotong royong); environmental conservation messages and sustainable resource management; and practical benefits that improve mental mapping of evacuation routes and internalisation of emergency protocols. The study reveals that the ritual's design aligns with key priorities of the Sendai Framework, demonstrating how traditional knowledge can be effectively integrated into modern DRR approaches to strengthen community capacity while safeguarding cultural heritage.

本研究调查了印度尼西亚Mount Kelud的Larung Sesaji仪式作为社区减少灾害风险（CBDRR）的实践。对于居住在这座活火山附近的社区来说，一年一度的仪式是一种文化机制，可以提高他们的备灾能力。采用定性人种志方法，通过与四位关键线人的深入访谈、参与性观察和文件分析收集数据。这项研究提供了一种新颖的多维分析，表明喇荣Sesaji在四个相互关联的维度上增强了社区的复原力：通过宗教信仰支持情绪调节和希望的心理益处；通过集体工作实践的社会联系和代际社会资本发展环境保护信息和可持续资源管理；还有实际的好处，那就是提高对疏散路线的心理映射和对应急协议的内在化。该研究表明，仪式的设计符合仙台框架的关键优先事项，展示了如何将传统知识有效地融入现代减灾方法，从而在保护文化遗产的同时加强社区能力。

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引用次数: 0

A longitudinal study of the impact of disasters on individual wellbeing 灾难对个人幸福感影响的纵向研究

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105999

Nikita Sharma , Ella Kuskoff , Cameron Parsell , Nathan Middlebrook

Disasters disrupt people's lives and continue to adversely impact them beyond the immediate aftermath. Whilst the literature establishes that disasters affect wellbeing through multiple channels, our paper contributes by examining the persistence of these effects over subsequent years and testing whether financial impacts serve as a key explanatory mechanism. Using rich, longitudinal data from Australia's HILDA Survey, we employ mediation analysis to understand the temporal patterns of disaster impacts and individual recovery by focusing on their wellbeing levels measured by life satisfaction, social connectedness, and happiness. Our fixed-effects regression analysis reveals that disasters reduce the life satisfaction and happiness of those affected, with adverse effects extending well beyond the year of occurrence. These effects are explained by lower financial satisfaction and remain consistent across specifications accounting for multiple disasters. We also find a positive impact of disasters on the social connectedness of respondents. These findings support the call for sustained support services and wellbeing assessments of disaster-affected communities.

灾害扰乱了人们的生活，并在直接后果之后继续对他们产生不利影响。虽然文献表明灾害通过多种渠道影响幸福感，但我们的论文通过检查这些影响在随后几年的持续性并测试财务影响是否作为关键的解释机制来做出贡献。利用来自澳大利亚HILDA调查的丰富的纵向数据，我们采用中介分析来了解灾害影响和个人恢复的时间模式，通过关注他们的生活满意度、社会联系和幸福感来衡量他们的健康水平。我们的固定效应回归分析显示，灾害降低了受影响者的生活满意度和幸福感，其负面影响远远超过了发生的年份。这些影响可以用较低的财务满意度来解释，并且在考虑多种灾难的规范中保持一致。我们还发现灾难对受访者的社会联系有积极的影响。这些发现支持了对受灾社区提供持续支持服务和福祉评估的呼吁。

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引用次数: 0

Representing multi-hazard events in urban systems: An ontology-based model 表示城市系统中的多灾害事件：一个基于本体的模型

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105990

Cristine Griffo, Massimiliano Pittore

The United Nations World Cities Report 2022 predicts that global urbanization will increase from 56% in 2021 to 68% in 2050. This will lead to consequences, including the impact of natural, environmental, and anthropogenic risks on cities. These risks will manifest as physical damage to buildings and adverse effects on services to the population and socio-economic structures, as well as losses of life. Cities are adaptive complex systems with intricate interactions between inhabitants and infrastructure, often compared to living organisms. As system complexity increases, understanding and sharing information become more challenging. One alternative to address these challenges is the development of ontological models that use modeling languages to capture the shared semantics of specific parts of the world and their perceived reality, thereby improving understanding and information sharing. Although there are ontological models and taxonomies in the literature that address topics such as cities, population, urban infrastructure, and the geosphere, few represent these elements coexisting and from different perspectives of risk and hazards. Moreover, most of them do not use foundational ontologies, which can lead to inconsistencies and validation drawbacks. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the multi-risk analysis in urban systems and risk reduction by addressing the aforementioned gaps. To this end, a risk-driven ontological model of urban systems is proposed. This model is based on a foundational ontology and integrates the main elements of an urban system. In addition, a thesaurus was implemented and made available online on an open-source platform (Skosmos platform) that is easily accessible to both experts and laypeople. The results were validated with stakeholders through case studies, storylines, and interviews.

联合国《2022年世界城市报告》预测，全球城市化将从2021年的56%上升到2050年的68%。这将导致后果，包括自然、环境和人为风险对城市的影响。这些风险将表现为对建筑物的有形破坏和对人口和社会经济结构的服务的不利影响，以及生命损失。城市是具有适应性的复杂系统，居民和基础设施之间有着错综复杂的相互作用，通常被比作生物体。随着系统复杂性的增加，理解和共享信息变得更加具有挑战性。解决这些挑战的一个替代方案是开发本体模型，该模型使用建模语言捕获世界的特定部分及其感知现实的共享语义，从而提高理解和信息共享。虽然文献中有一些本体论模型和分类，涉及城市、人口、城市基础设施和地圈等主题，但很少有从不同的风险和危害角度代表这些元素共存的。此外，它们中的大多数不使用基础本体，这可能导致不一致和验证缺陷。本文的目的是通过解决上述差距，为城市系统的多风险分析和风险降低做出贡献。为此，提出了风险驱动的城市系统本体论模型。该模型建立在基础本体的基础上，整合了城市系统的主要元素。此外，还实现了一个词库，并在一个开源平台（Skosmos平台）上在线提供，专家和外行都可以轻松访问。结果通过案例研究、故事情节和访谈与涉众进行验证。

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引用次数: 0

Application of cost-benefit analysis for establishing coastal erosion setback buffer zones in South Korea 成本效益分析在韩国海岸侵蚀后退缓冲区建设中的应用

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106001

Byung-Chul Lee , Jung Eun Kang , Sang-hyeok Lee , Sung Soon Yoon

Setting up buffer zones to avoid coastal erosion is a method used worldwide, but not been widely adopted in South Korea. The economic feasibility of buffer zones raises questions. Using spatial cost-benefit analysis (CBA), this study compared setback acquisition costs with previously invested costs in hard protection and nourishment at two contrasting beaches: Gungchon-Munam Beach (in a rural area) and Haeundae Beach (in a highly developed urban area). Erosion zones by 2100 were predicted using MeePaSoL and HaeSaBeeN under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 sea-level rise scenarios. For Gungchon-Munam Beach, the results showed that the entire erosion-prone area can be acquired at a lower cost than past investments in hard infrastructure. By contrast, owing to high land and building values, Haeundae Beach allows only partial acquisition under equivalent costs. However, priority areas for setback buffer zones can still be identified. These findings suggest that setback strategies may be more economically viable in rural areas and selectively applicable in urban zones. This study proposes a replicable spatial CBA framework for determining effective setback areas, providing a decision-making tool for integrated coastal management. While the analysis focused on economic factors, the results highlight the need for future studies to incorporate ecological and social factors into the research. The proposed method supports precautionary coastal planning under climate change and can aid in long-term resilience by minimizing sunk costs and improving adaptive policy decisions.

为防止海岸侵蚀，在世界各地都有建立缓冲地带的做法，但在韩国并没有广泛采用。缓冲区的经济可行性提出了问题。利用空间成本效益分析（CBA），本研究比较了两个对比海滩的挫折获取成本与先前在硬保护和营养方面的投资成本：Gungchon-Munam海滩（农村地区）和Haeundae海滩（高度发达的城市地区）。在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5海平面上升情景下，使用MeePaSoL和HaeSaBeeN对2100年的侵蚀带进行了预测。对于gunchon - munam海滩，结果表明，与过去的硬基础设施投资相比，可以以更低的成本获得整个易受侵蚀的地区。相比之下，海云台海水浴场由于土地和建筑价格较高，只能在同等费用下部分收购。但是，仍然可以确定后退缓冲区的优先区域。这些研究结果表明，倒退战略在农村地区可能更具经济可行性，并有选择地适用于城市地区。本研究提出了一个可复制的空间CBA框架，用于确定有效的后退区，为沿海综合管理提供决策工具。虽然分析侧重于经济因素，但结果强调了未来研究将生态和社会因素纳入研究的必要性。所提出的方法支持气候变化下的预防性沿海规划，并可以通过最小化沉没成本和改进适应性政策决策来帮助长期恢复力。

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引用次数: 0

Embedding collaboration in disaster response: Insights from the joint emergency services interoperability principles 在灾害应对中嵌入协作：来自联合应急服务互操作性原则的见解

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105992

Sara Waring, Nicole Balmer, Hannah Langley, Kelsea Williams, Elena Vaughan-Chantler, Nicola Power

Effective disaster response depends on the ability of diverse organisations to collaborate seamlessly under pressure. Previous research has largely centred on the ‘blue-light’ emergency services (police, fire, and ambulance), with much less being known about how wider emergency and resilience partners experience and enact collaboration in practice. This paper addresses that gap by examining the perceived challenges and opportunities for multi-agency cooperation across a broader range of responders. Drawing on twenty-six semi-structured interviews with representatives from local authorities, the National Health Service, His Majesty's Coastguard, the UK Health Security Agency, and the Ministry of Defence, the study explores how the UK's national Joint Emergency Services Interoperability Principles (JESIP) framework is understood and applied beyond traditional emergency services. Thematic analysis revealed seven interrelated factors shaping the embedding of JESIP: (i) Inclusivity; (ii) Training and exercising; (iii) Continuous learning and development; (iv) Relationships; (v) Organisational culture and policies; (vi) Technology; and (vi) Personnel and financial constraints. Findings indicate that while JESIP provides a valuable foundation for coordination, its perceived ‘blue-light’ focus limits engagement and ownership across the wider emergency community. By highlighting the experiences of often-overlooked responders, this study offers new insight into how interoperability frameworks can be made more inclusive, adaptive, and effective. The research contributes to both policy and practice by informing the evolution of multi-agency collaboration mechanisms critical to saving lives and strengthening resilience during future crises.

有效的灾难响应取决于不同组织在压力下无缝协作的能力。以前的研究主要集中在“蓝光”紧急服务（警察、消防和救护车）上，而对更广泛的紧急和复原力合作伙伴如何在实践中体验和制定合作知之甚少。本文通过研究在更广泛的应对者范围内开展多机构合作所面临的挑战和机遇来解决这一差距。通过对来自地方当局、国家卫生服务、海岸警卫队、英国卫生安全局和国防部代表的26次半结构化访谈，该研究探讨了英国国家联合应急服务互操作性原则（JESIP）框架是如何被理解和应用于传统应急服务之外的。专题分析揭示了形成JESIP嵌入的七个相互关联的因素：(i)包容性；训练和演习；不断学习和发展；(iv)关系;组织文化和政策；(vi)技术;人事和财政限制。调查结果表明，虽然JESIP为协调提供了宝贵的基础，但其被认为的“蓝光”焦点限制了更广泛的应急社区的参与和所有权。通过强调经常被忽视的响应者的经验，本研究为如何使互操作性框架更具包容性、适应性和有效性提供了新的见解。该研究为在未来危机中拯救生命和加强复原力至关重要的多机构协作机制的演变提供了信息，有助于促进政策和实践。

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引用次数: 0

Strengthening community disaster resilience in uncertain times: a multi-level analysis of an Australian bushfire 在不确定时期加强社区抗灾能力：对澳大利亚森林大火的多层次分析

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106000

Matthew Daly , Tillmann Boehme , Neil Turner , James Aitken , Alan Green , Scott McKinnon , Christine Eriksen , Paul Cooper

This paper examines how community groups develop resilience over time through influencing and interacting with different societal levels throughout the phases of the disaster management cycle: prevention, preparation, response, and recovery. This provides an opportunity for a more insightful and holistic understanding of the factors involved in resilience. The macro/governmental level shapes governance of bushfire management and resources; the micro level reflects the actions of individual and households; while the meso level represents local community groups providing a bridge between the two through trust-based integration and collaboration.

This four-year longitudinal study used a complexity analysis framework to reveal latent tensions, as well as strong social relationships and community connections. These had implications for the emergent, local-specific responses to the bushfires, based on community attributes, needs and characteristics. The work reveals the importance of the meso level as a bridge between the governmental and individual levels, which can support tailoring, reconfiguring, and organising resources to strengthen resilience. These findings also have implications for shared responsibility, as community-based organisations may disagree with objectives at other levels, eroding resilience across the entire system. The analysis in this paper indicates that careful, flexible integration of the locally specific knowledge, meso level coordination, relationship-building, and transparent information-sharing that community-based organisation can provide, can be beneficial in effectively managing the multiple complexities of disasters.

本文考察了社区团体如何在灾害管理周期的各个阶段（预防、准备、响应和恢复）通过影响和互动不同的社会层面，随着时间的推移发展复原力。这为更深刻和全面地理解弹性所涉及的因素提供了机会。宏观/政府层面塑造了森林火灾管理和资源的治理；微观层面反映个人和家庭的行为；而中观层面则代表地方社区团体，通过基于信任的整合和协作在两者之间架起一座桥梁。这项为期四年的纵向研究使用了一个复杂性分析框架来揭示潜在的紧张关系，以及强大的社会关系和社区联系。这对基于社区属性、需求和特征的紧急、当地特定的森林火灾响应具有影响。这项工作揭示了中观层面作为政府和个人之间的桥梁的重要性，它可以支持裁剪、重新配置和组织资源以增强复原力。这些发现也对共同责任产生了影响，因为以社区为基础的组织可能不同意其他层面的目标，从而侵蚀了整个系统的弹性。本文的分析表明，以社区为基础的组织可以提供的地方特定知识、中尺度协调、关系建立和透明信息共享的谨慎、灵活的整合，可能有助于有效地管理灾害的多重复杂性。

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引用次数: 0

Data assimilation in emergency department simulations for real-time disaster response 急诊部门实时灾害响应模拟中的数据同化

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105995

Roben Delos Reyes , Daniel Capurro , Nicholas Geard

Mass casualty incidents (MCIs) due to disasters such as earthquakes and infectious disease outbreaks create a sudden surge of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Responding appropriately to these incidents requires EDs to have situational awareness of both the current and future impacts of an MCI on patient presentation and resource allocation. ED simulation models are used to support such decision making by simulating how MCIs will affect an ED based on hypothetical assumptions or historical data from past MCIs. However, because each MCI can unfold differently, there remains a need to update these ED simulation models using ED observations collected as an MCI unfolds to adequately represent the ED’s current conditions in reality. Here, we present a novel data assimilation method for incorporating recently collected observations into an ED simulation model to align the conditions in the simulation model with the conditions in its real-world ED counterpart during an unfolding MCI. We demonstrate that using real-time ED observations can generate more accurate and reliable estimates of the ED’s current conditions and forecasts of its future conditions, compared with relying solely on past observations. Our results highlight how ED simulation models can function as real-time decision support tools in the ED, particularly for enhancing situational awareness during MCIs to support real-time disaster response.

由于地震和传染病爆发等灾害导致的大规模伤亡事件（MCIs）导致急诊科（ED）的患者突然激增。对这些事件做出适当的反应需要急诊科对MCI对病人表现和资源分配的当前和未来影响有情境意识。通过基于假设假设或过去mci的历史数据模拟mci将如何影响ED，使用ED模拟模型来支持此类决策。然而，由于每个MCI的展开方式不同，因此仍然需要使用MCI展开时收集的ED观测来更新这些ED模拟模型，以充分代表现实中的ED当前状况。在这里，我们提出了一种新的数据同化方法，将最近收集到的观测数据合并到ED模拟模型中，以便在展开的MCI期间将模拟模型中的条件与现实世界中对应的ED条件对齐。我们证明，与仅仅依靠过去的观测相比，使用实时ED观测可以对ED当前状况产生更准确和可靠的估计，并对其未来状况进行预测。我们的研究结果强调了ED仿真模型如何在ED中作为实时决策支持工具，特别是在MCIs期间增强态势感知以支持实时灾难响应。

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引用次数: 0

Diagnostic framework for causal inference in seasonal urban flooding: Precipitation-based control selection and synthetic difference-in-differences in Lagos, Nigeria 季节性城市洪水因果推理的诊断框架：尼日利亚拉各斯基于降水的控制选择和综合差异中的差异

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105993

Lele Zhang , Xin (Bruce) Wu , Kailun Liu , Md Abdullah Al Mehedi , Jiashu Zhou , Virginia Smith , Chenfeng Xiong

Establishing causal relationships between urban flooding and behavioral responses is challenging in tropical coastal cities experiencing seasonal flooding, where exposure often limits distinct control areas, rainy seasons with inundation episodes complicate discrete treatment timing, and satellite temporal resolution constrains flood tracking. We develop a framework that facilitates causal inference by shifting the unit of analysis from geographic locations to facility types. The framework uses two screening metrics to identify donor categories: Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) for identifying facility types whose visitation patterns exhibit minimal sensitivity to precipitation variability, thereby screening for weather-resilient categories rather than direct flood impacts, and Coefficient of Variation (CV) for assessing temporal stability across flood phases. The framework then integrates these selected donors into a hybrid Synthetic Control-Difference-in-Differences estimator. In Lagos, Nigeria’s June–July 2020 rainy season, the framework integrates Location-Based Services data, ERA5 precipitation reanalysis, Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, and OpenStreetMap infrastructure. Analysis reveals heterogeneity: healthcare visitation increased 40 % during flooding and remained elevated at 51 % above baseline through recovery; transportation declined 22 % with no recovery; retail exhibited post-flood rebounds of 35 %. Effect directions remained consistent across three control specifications (Religious-only, Residential-only, and optimized synthetic control), with the synthetic approach achieving 42–64 % reductions in standard errors relative to fixed controls. The framework provides a systematic approach for impact assessment in data-constrained disaster contexts where spatial controls are limited, and discrete event isolation is constrained by monitoring infrastructure. By using precipitation as a temporally resolved proxy for flood exposure, the framework estimates compound flood-season effects using data increasingly accessible in tropical urban settings.

在经历季节性洪水的热带沿海城市中，建立城市洪水与行为反应之间的因果关系具有挑战性，这些城市的暴露往往限制了不同的控制区域，洪水发作的雨季使离散的处理时间复杂化，卫星时间分辨率限制了洪水跟踪。我们开发了一个框架，通过将分析单元从地理位置转移到设施类型来促进因果推理。该框架使用两种筛选指标来确定捐赠类别：最大信息系数（MIC）用于识别访问模式对降水变化敏感性最低的设施类型，从而筛选天气弹性类别，而不是直接的洪水影响；变异系数（CV）用于评估洪水阶段的时间稳定性。然后，该框架将这些选定的捐助者集成到一个混合的综合控制-差中差估计器中。在尼日利亚拉各斯2020年6月至7月的雨季，该框架集成了基于位置的服务数据、ERA5降水再分析、Sentinel-1 SAR图像和OpenStreetMap基础设施。分析揭示了异质性：在洪水期间，就诊人数增加了40%，在恢复期间，就诊人数保持在高于基线51%的水平；运输业下降22%，没有复苏；零售业在洪水过后反弹了35%。效果方向在三个控制规范（仅宗教、仅居住和优化合成控制）中保持一致，与固定控制相比，合成方法的标准误差降低了42 - 64%。该框架为数据受限的灾害背景下的影响评估提供了一种系统方法，在这种情况下，空间控制有限，离散事件隔离受到监测基础设施的限制。通过使用降水作为洪水暴露的临时解决代理，该框架使用在热带城市环境中越来越容易获得的数据来估计复合洪水季节的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Multi-scenario analysis of debris flow propagation on the archaeological site of Villa Romana del Casale (Sicily, Italy) 意大利西西里岛Villa Romana del Casale考古遗址泥石流传播的多场景分析

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105991

Mariano Sanfilippo , Laura M. Stancanelli , Luca Cavallaro , Enrico Foti , Rosaria E. Musumeci

The cultural heritage of a nation represents its historical memory and its identity character, playing an important role in the economic, cultural, recreational and tourism sector of the country. However, numerous studies show that cultural sites, including historic buildings, city centres and archaeological sites, are exposed to natural risks. In particular archaeological sites are extremely vulnerable to extreme rainfall flooding and debris flow events and other associated natural phenomena, such as debris flows. The effects of different representations of the geometry of the archaeological area are evaluated through two-dimensional numerical modelling of debris flow propagation. The case study is represented by the archaeological site of Villa Romana del Casale in Piazza Armerina (EN), a UNESCO heritage site since 1997. A multi-scenario analysis is proposed to consider triggers of debris flows, upstream of the archaeological area. The results allow us to evaluate how different combinations of landslide events interact with the historical building. The impacts are evaluated in terms of arrival times of sediment flows at the archaeological area and of the volumes of debris and residual debris deposited at the site. Effectiveness of existing hydraulic defence works is also assessed. The results show that detailed modelling of the geometry of the structure, with the inclusion of the perimeter openings, is crucial not only for estimating the risk in the internal areas of the Villa but also for avoiding overestimation of debris flows outdoors of the archaeological site.

一个民族的文化遗产代表着这个民族的历史记忆和身份特征，在这个国家的经济、文化、娱乐和旅游部门中发挥着重要作用。然而，许多研究表明，包括历史建筑、城市中心和考古遗址在内的文化遗址面临着自然风险。特别是考古遗址极易受到极端降雨、洪水和泥石流事件以及泥石流等其他相关自然现象的影响。通过泥石流传播的二维数值模拟，评估了考古区域不同几何形态的影响。案例研究以Armerina广场（EN）的Villa Romana del Casale考古遗址为代表，该遗址自1997年以来一直是联合国教科文组织的遗产。提出了一种多情景分析，考虑了考古区上游泥石流的触发因素。这些结果使我们能够评估不同的滑坡事件组合如何与历史建筑相互作用。这些影响是根据沉积物到达考古区域的时间以及在遗址上沉积的碎片和残余碎片的体积来评估的。此外，亦评估现有水工防御工程的成效。结果表明，结构几何的详细建模，包括周边开口，不仅对估算别墅内部区域的风险至关重要，而且对避免高估考古遗址室外的泥石流也至关重要。

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