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Don't quit your day job. Part-time firefighters in rural Norway 不要辞掉你的日常工作。挪威乡村的兼职消防员
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106054
Petter Grytten Almklov , Gudveig Gjøsund , Torgeir Kolstø Haavik , Cathrine Wessel Antonsen
Part-time firefighters (PTFs) in rural Norway are employed in minor positions, have little formal training and often few resources. Still, they respond to a wide array of incidents in an impressive manner. Based on interviews of 24 informants in three municipalities our analysis shows how three small rural fire departments organize their work in a situation where most of their crew have 2% positions (sometimes less) as firefighters. We analyze the value of diversity of day-time jobs, the “practical” orientation of the PTFs, how they draw on social networks to the community and develop a community of their own. In some situations, their primary jobs provide directly applicable skills. They also contribute indirectly to group-level capabilities. We find that social relations to the community, and among the firefighters, are characterized by reciprocity and communal values. Social relations are a key explanation of the PTFs motivation to serve, and an important element of the effectiveness of the PTFs in doing so. The fire and rescue services (FRS) are woven into the fabric of the communities they serve, and this embeddedness is shaped by peculiar local circumstances, in terms of both resources and hazards. The paper describes and analyzes how social networks and reciprocal relations mobilize the resources in rural communities for emergency preparedness. The findings are relevant to contemporary processes of re-organizing FRS’ into larger units, by pointing to risks of losing important, but largely invisible, qualities of today's PTF-based services. Also, it illustrates how the embedded nature of such response organization can be a key factor to understand community resilience, particularly in rural areas.
挪威农村的兼职消防员(ptf)从事次要职位,几乎没有接受过正规培训,通常也没有什么资源。尽管如此,他们还是以令人印象深刻的方式对各种各样的事件做出了反应。基于对三个城市的24名告密者的采访,我们的分析显示了三个小型农村消防部门在大多数工作人员只有2%(有时更少)是消防员的情况下是如何组织工作的。我们分析了全职工作多样性的价值,ptf的“实用”取向,他们如何利用社交网络进入社区并发展自己的社区。在某些情况下,他们的主要工作提供直接适用的技能。它们还间接地促进了团队级别的能力。我们发现,与社区的社会关系,以及消防员之间的社会关系,具有互惠和共同价值观的特点。社会关系是ptf服务动机的一个关键解释,也是ptf服务效率的一个重要因素。消防和救援服务(FRS)已融入其所服务的社区的结构中,而这种嵌入性是由资源和危险方面的特殊当地情况形成的。本文描述和分析了社会网络和互惠关系如何调动农村社区的应急准备资源。通过指出当今基于ptf的服务失去重要但基本上不可见的质量的风险,研究结果与将FRS重组为更大单位的当代过程相关。此外,它还说明了这种响应组织的嵌入性质如何成为理解社区复原力的关键因素,特别是在农村地区。
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引用次数: 0
Governance and adaptive capacity: Greater losses in assets, flexibility, and confidence among tourism operators in low-governance contexts during the COVID-19 pandemic 治理和适应能力:在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,低治理环境下的旅游经营者的资产、灵活性和信心损失更大
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106049
Henry A. Bartelet , Lalu A.A. Bakti
Understanding how adaptive capacity shifts in response to major systemic shocks is essential for reducing disaster risk and strengthening resilience. While previous research has focused primarily on climate-related hazards, this study provides the first longitudinal quantification of multiple adaptive capacity domains across governance gradients during the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine how reef tourism operators’ capacity to adapt across the Asia-Pacific region evolved during the first year of the pandemic, a non-environmental but highly disruptive event with disaster-like impacts on coastal economies. Drawing on recall data from 166 operators in countries with varying levels of governance effectiveness, we assess substantial changes across six adaptive capacity domains: agency, assets, flexibility, learning, social organization, and socio-cognitive constructs. Results reveal widespread declines in material assets regardless of governance context, but divergent patterns in human and psychological dimensions. In countries with higher governance effectiveness, adaptation confidence displayed a balanced pattern of increases and decreases; in lower-effectiveness settings, confidence was more likely to decline. Access to skilled labour decreased in stronger institutional settings but increased where governance was weaker. Significant reductions in agency and flexibility occurred only in lower governance-effectiveness contexts. A positive correlation between changes in adaptation confidence and savings, found only in higher governance-effectiveness countries, underscores the interdependence between material and socio-cognitive factors. These findings highlight governance as a key driver of adaptive trajectories and challenge assumptions about universal benefits of diversification. By revealing context-specific pathways of capacity decline or strengthening, this work informs targeted risk reduction and recovery strategies for tourism-dependent communities.
了解适应能力如何在应对重大系统性冲击时发生变化,对于减少灾害风险和加强复原力至关重要。虽然以前的研究主要侧重于气候相关的危害,但本研究首次对COVID-19大流行期间跨治理梯度的多个适应能力领域进行了纵向量化。我们研究了珊瑚礁旅游运营商在大流行的第一年如何适应整个亚太地区的能力,这是一个非环境但高度破坏性的事件,对沿海经济产生了类似灾难的影响。根据来自不同治理效率国家的166家运营商的召回数据,我们评估了六个适应能力领域的实质性变化:代理、资产、灵活性、学习、社会组织和社会认知结构。结果显示,无论治理背景如何,物质资产普遍下降,但在人和心理方面存在不同的模式。在治理效率较高的国家,适应信心呈现出平衡的增减格局;在效率较低的环境中,信心更有可能下降。在体制较强的环境中,获得熟练劳动力的机会减少,但在治理较弱的环境中,获得熟练劳动力的机会增加。只有在治理效率较低的情况下,能动性和灵活性才会显著减少。只有在治理效率较高的国家,适应信心的变化与储蓄之间存在正相关关系,这强调了物质因素与社会认知因素之间的相互依存关系。这些发现强调了治理是适应性轨迹的关键驱动因素,并挑战了有关多样化普遍益处的假设。通过揭示能力下降或增强的具体途径,这项工作为依赖旅游业的社区提供了有针对性的风险减少和恢复战略。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting tephra fall building impacts and losses at Awu volcano, Sangihe Island (Indonesia) 印尼桑吉河岛阿乌火山火山崩落建筑物影响及损失预测
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106040
Eleanor Tennant , Susanna F. Jenkins , Christina Widiwijayanti , Ahmad Basuki , Heruningtyas D. Purnamasari
Moving beyond volcanic hazard assessment to forecast how hazards affect communities provides valuable information for risk mitigation. Awu, a remote volcano on Sangihe Besar Island, Indonesia, is currently experiencing unrest (December 2025). With the entire population living within 45 km of the volcano, there is a need for actionable risk information. We integrated probabilistic tephra fall hazard analysis with building exposure and vulnerability information to forecast losses from a likely VEI 4 eruption. To address limited exposure data, we extracted building roof types from satellite imagery and applied Bayesian inference to combine existing vulnerability models into a hybrid framework suited to local conditions. Results indicate a 95% probability of exceeding ∼$11 million USD (∼179 billion IDR) in building damage and a 75% probability of exceeding $25 million USD (∼407 billion IDR). Losses are concentrated in the northern districts, with Tahuna, the capital most affected. Losses at Awu were not well forecast by column height and wind conditions, parameters currently used to trigger insurance payouts from volcanic catastrophe risk bonds. Existing probabilistic volcanic loss calculations often couple a single hazard footprint representing the Nth percentile intensity with exposure and vulnerability data. Here we calculated loss for each individual hazard footprint computing 100 million values to capture uncertainty in both hazard and vulnerability. Losses calculated using the median hazard footprint were 5% higher than the median of the loss population. In addition to supporting decision making during the current unrest, our work presents key advancements in volcanic risk assessment that may be applied to other locations worldwide.
超越火山灾害评估,预测灾害对社区的影响,为减轻风险提供了宝贵的信息。印尼桑吉河贝萨尔岛上的一座偏远火山阿乌火山目前正在经历动荡(2025年12月)。由于所有人口都居住在距离火山45公里的范围内,因此需要可操作的风险信息。我们综合了概率火山坠落危害分析、建筑物暴露和脆弱性信息,以预测可能的VEI 4级火山喷发造成的损失。为了解决有限的暴露数据,我们从卫星图像中提取了建筑物屋顶类型,并应用贝叶斯推理将现有的脆弱性模型结合到适合当地条件的混合框架中。结果表明,95%的可能性超过1100万美元(约1790亿印尼盾)的建筑损失,75%的可能性超过2500万美元(约4070亿印尼盾)。损失集中在北部地区,首都塔胡纳受影响最严重。火山柱高度和风况并不能很好地预测阿乌火山的损失,这些参数目前被用于触发火山灾难风险债券的保险赔付。现有的火山损失概率计算通常将代表第n个百分位数强度的单一危害足迹与暴露和脆弱性数据相结合。在这里,我们计算了每个单独的危害足迹的损失,计算了1亿个值,以捕捉危害和脆弱性的不确定性。使用中位数危害足迹计算的损失比损失人口的中位数高5%。除了支持当前动荡时期的决策制定外,我们的工作还展示了火山风险评估方面的关键进展,这些进展可能适用于全球其他地区。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating physical drivers for wildfire hazard modelling in support of disaster risk reduction: A case study in Castile and León, Spain 整合野火灾害建模的物理驱动因素以支持减少灾害风险:以西班牙卡斯蒂利亚和León为例研究
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106047
Alejandro Corbea-Pérez, Andrés Merino, Andrés Navarro, Eduardo García-Ortega
Wildfires represent a global threat, particularly in southwestern Europe and the Mediterranean basin, a climate change hotspot where rising temperatures and drought exacerbate risk. The present work addresses the urgent need for updated, spatially explicit hazard models, focusing on Castile and León, Spain, a strongly affected region within southwestern Europe that experienced an unprecedented fire season in 2025. The objective was to develop and evaluate a robust and globally transferrable wildfire hazard assessment framework at a daily, 1-km scale. This involved integrating biophysical and anthropogenic data from 2007 to 2022 with an external evaluation using data from August 2025. The rigorous validation within this complex, high-risk socioecological context ensured the fundamental capacity of the models for broader application. Two machine learning models were used: Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The results demonstrate the robustness of both models for predicting the ignition hazard. Interpretability analyses consistently identified thermal and hydric forcings as the main determinants of danger. Both models had strong predictive performance with complementary strengths, i.e., ConvLSTM excelled in restricting false alarms, and XGBoost maximized the detection of actual events. The integration of both architectures offers a solid foundation for developing hybrid decision-support systems. This very transferable modelling framework will empower managers and policymakers to optimise the allocation of firefighting resources and develop dynamic early warning systems, thereby facilitating a shift towards adaptive and sustainable risk management strategies in southwestern Europe and informing management practices in other fire-prone regions worldwide.
野火是一种全球性威胁,尤其是在欧洲西南部和地中海盆地,这是气候变化的热点地区,气温上升和干旱加剧了风险。目前的工作解决了对更新的、空间明确的危害模型的迫切需要,重点是卡斯蒂利亚和西班牙León,这是欧洲西南部一个受影响严重的地区,在2025年经历了前所未有的火灾季节。目标是在每日1公里尺度上开发和评估一个强大的、全球可转移的野火危害评估框架。这包括将2007年至2022年的生物物理和人为数据与使用2025年8月数据的外部评估相结合。在这种复杂、高风险的社会生态背景下,严格的验证确保了模型的基本能力得到更广泛的应用。使用了两种机器学习模型:卷积长短期记忆(ConvLSTM)和极端梯度增强(XGBoost)。结果表明,两种模型在预测着火危险性方面具有较好的鲁棒性。可解释性分析一致认为热力和水力强迫是危险的主要决定因素。两种模型都具有较强的预测性能和互补优势,即ConvLSTM擅长限制虚警,XGBoost最大限度地检测实际事件。这两种体系结构的集成为开发混合决策支持系统提供了坚实的基础。这种非常可转移的建模框架将使管理人员和决策者能够优化消防资源的分配,并开发动态预警系统,从而促进欧洲西南部向适应性和可持续风险管理战略的转变,并为全球其他火灾易发地区的管理实践提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
A Human-Disaster Dynamic System Approach for Wildfire Adaptation 野火适应的人-灾动态系统方法
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106044
Liming Lu , Chao Fan , Haizhong Wang
Whether legislative measures, the formal enactment of laws, regulations, and policy instruments, effectively reduce housing damage in wildfires remains under considerable debate. Existing damage models often fail to consider the socio-ecological feedback of legislative measures, indicated by community development and hazard occurrences. Here, we build a coupled land and hazard model to examine socio-ecological feedback to legislative measures and the impacts on future damage. We find that structural and relief legislation often leads to increased development of communities in wildfire-prone areas and ultimately results in large-scale housing damage in extreme wildfire events. On the contrary, educational and outreach legislation can offset the counterproductive effects of structural and relief legislation by reducing community development in risk areas. These results are attributed to the factor of risk perception, where increased risk perception reduces expansion in risk areas, but a false sense of security may increase community development in risk areas. Our findings suggest that ignoring socio-ecological feedback in estimating wildfire damage may overlook these counterproductive consequences and, in turn, affect the effectiveness of hazard management policies, resulting in maladaptation, where small events are prevented but large events may create extensive damage.
立法措施,即法律、法规和政策工具的正式制定,是否能有效地减少野火对房屋的损害,目前仍存在相当大的争议。现有的损害模型往往没有考虑到社区发展和灾害发生所表明的立法措施的社会生态反馈。在此,我们建立了一个土地和灾害耦合模型,以检验立法措施的社会生态反馈和对未来损害的影响。我们发现,结构性和救济立法往往会导致野火易发地区社区的发展,并最终导致极端野火事件中大规模的住房破坏。相反,教育和外联立法可以通过减少危险地区的社区发展来抵消结构和救济立法的反效果。这些结果归因于风险认知因素,其中风险认知增加会减少风险地区的扩张,但错误的安全感可能会增加风险地区的社区发展。我们的研究结果表明,在估计野火损害时忽视社会生态反馈可能会忽略这些适得其反的后果,进而影响灾害管理政策的有效性,导致适应不良,即小事件被阻止,但大事件可能造成广泛的损害。
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引用次数: 0
Indirect transport cost prioritization index for road networks exposed to natural hazards: Application to earthquake-induced landslides 自然灾害下道路网络的间接运输成本优先指数:在地震诱发滑坡中的应用
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106042
Eduardo Allen, Seosamh B. Costello, Theunis F.P. Henning, Amelia Lin, Conrad Zorn, Liam Wotherspoon
Natural hazards have historically disrupted road networks, generating significant economic consequences, which are often assessed through reconstruction costs alone. Furthermore, not all road link disruptions contribute equally, as some produce higher indirect economic impacts due to their strategic importance. However, impact models seldom incorporate indirect consequences of road disruptions due to probabilistic events. Therefore, this paper proposes an indirect-cost prioritization index to evaluate the indirect impacts of earthquake-induced landslides on road networks. The index quantifies impacts in terms of increased travel time, canceled trips, vehicle operating costs, gas emissions, and maintenance costs. The index integrates the hazard event probability and the relative contribution of each road segment to the total impact. The methodology is then applied to a case study of New Zealand’s South Island. The methodology is firstly applied to a single scenario, where daily economic losses are calculated across the network at approximately NZD 847,000. Secondly, the variability in economic losses across a predefined set of hazard scenarios is discussed. Finally, the methodology is applied using a set of scenarios to calculate the prioritization index. The case study identified State Highway 6 and State Highway 7 as the top-ranked corridors, reflecting their strategic role in connecting the island and their proximity to the Alpine Fault. Indirect economic impacts were primarily driven by detour-related travel time and vehicle operating costs, which account for over 90% of the total consequences. The methodology offers a tool for road agencies to evaluate impacts of disruptions, prioritize investments, and enhance disaster preparedness.
历史上,自然灾害破坏了道路网络,造成了严重的经济后果,这些后果往往仅通过重建成本来评估。此外,并非所有道路连接中断的影响都是一样的,有些道路连接中断由于其战略重要性而产生更高的间接经济影响。然而,影响模型很少考虑由于概率事件造成的道路中断的间接后果。因此,本文提出了一个间接成本优先度指标来评价地震引发的滑坡对路网的间接影响。该指数量化了出行时间增加、行程取消、车辆运营成本、气体排放和维护成本等方面的影响。该指数综合了灾害事件概率和各路段对总影响的相对贡献。然后将该方法应用于新西兰南岛的案例研究。该方法首先应用于单一场景,其中整个网络的每日经济损失约为847,000新西兰元。其次,讨论了一组预定义的灾害情景中经济损失的可变性。最后,将该方法应用于一组场景来计算优先级指数。案例研究确定了6号国道和7号国道是最重要的走廊,反映了它们在连接岛屿和靠近阿尔卑斯断层方面的战略作用。间接经济影响主要由绕行相关的旅行时间和车辆运营成本驱动,占总后果的90%以上。该方法为道路管理机构提供了一种工具,用于评估交通中断的影响、确定投资的优先次序和加强备灾。
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引用次数: 0
Context matters: practitioners’ perspectives on prepositioning strategies in domestic emergency management 背景问题:从业者对国内应急管理中预先定位策略的看法
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106038
Amir Shariati, Cécile L’Hermitte, Nadia M. Trent, Derek Friday
Increasing disaster risks highlight the importance of resource prepositioning as an essential preparedness strategy in domestic Emergency Management (EM). To support timely and effective responses to a disaster, prepositioning decisions should be informed by an understanding of local contexts, actors, and existing logistics capacities. Current literature is dominated by quantitative models, which often overlook these contextual realities, thereby limiting their practical relevance. Guided by contingency theory, this qualitative study explores how contextual factors influence prepositioning decisions in EM, using Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) as the primary context.
Thirty semi-structured interviews with practitioners from various organisational levels reveal that prepositioning is highly context-dependent, influenced by geographical characteristics, available capacities and physical resources, and enabling conditions such as transport infrastructure, funding, and security. Findings also illustrate that although a decentralised, community-based approach is applicable in small rural areas with high isolation risks, urban settings and broader scales require hybrid strategies based on collaborative approaches and multitiered stockpiling networks.
The study proposes a framework that conceptualises the relationship among contextual factors, prepositioning strategies, and performance objectives related to timely response, equity, and cost-efficiency. It strengthens the alignment of prepositioning strategies with contextual realities, emphasises the critical need for central funding, and provides practical insights on the roles of communities, the private sector, and partner organisations in implementing prepositioning. While based in the NZ context, the findings are relevant for other countries seeking to improve preparedness strategies.
日益增加的灾害风险凸显了资源预先部署作为国内应急管理基本准备战略的重要性。为了支持对灾害做出及时有效的反应,预先部署的决定应在了解当地情况、行动者和现有后勤能力的基础上作出。目前的文献以定量模型为主,往往忽略了这些背景现实,从而限制了它们的实际意义。在权变理论的指导下,本定性研究以新西兰奥特罗阿(新西兰)为主要语境,探讨了语境因素如何影响新兴市场中的预设决策。与来自不同组织级别的从业者进行的30次半结构化访谈显示,预先定位高度依赖于环境,受地理特征、可用能力和物理资源以及交通基础设施、资金和安全等有利条件的影响。调查结果还表明,尽管分散的、以社区为基础的方法适用于具有高度隔离风险的小农村地区,但城市环境和更大的规模需要基于协作方法和多层储存网络的混合战略。该研究提出了一个框架,将背景因素、预置策略和与及时反应、公平和成本效率相关的绩效目标之间的关系概念化。它加强了预先部署战略与背景现实的一致性,强调了对中央资金的迫切需要,并就社区、私营部门和伙伴组织在实施预先部署中的作用提供了实际见解。虽然这些发现是基于新西兰的情况,但对寻求改进防范战略的其他国家来说是相关的。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of ageing on the seismic risk of RC wall–frame buildings under sequential earthquakes and consequences for insurance premiums 老化对连续地震作用下钢筋混凝土框架墙结构地震风险的影响及其对保险费用的影响
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106039
Nilanjan Samanta , Kaustubh Dasgupta , Luigi Di-Sarno , Andrea Prota
In India, a large stock of RC wall–frame buildings with deficient structural wall plan density (SWPD) is potentially vulnerable to combined ageing-induced deterioration and repeated seismic excitation. The primary objective of the present study is to evaluate the seismic risk of such building stock and to analytically derive the insurance parameters for the risk management, considering both ageing effects and sequential ground motion (GM) records. Three levels of corrosion rate (CR) or corrosion deterioration are considered, representing severe ageing, moderate ageing, and no ageing. A performance-based framework is adopted in which nonlinear response history analyses are used to develop seismic fragility and vulnerability functions. These functions are subsequently integrated with a site-specific seismic hazard curve to estimate annual seismic damage rate and seismic financial risk. The results show that the combined influence of corrosion deterioration and sequential GMs leads to a substantial increase in annual seismic damage rate, with the maximum amplification observed at near-collapse damage state. The financial risk results further show that the sequential GM records increase absolute financial loss with the increase in corrosion rate; however, its relative (multiplicative) impact across different hazard levels is highest for no ageing effect (CR = 0%). Finally, using a novel approach, the insurance parameters are determined, and the effect of corrosion-induced deterioration on the annual premium rate is quantified. Overall, the findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for the coupled effects of corrosion deterioration and sequential GMs in the seismic risk evaluation of RC wall–frame building stock. The results also provide quantitative support for risk-informed mitigation strategies and insurance decision-making.
在印度,大量结构墙平面密度(SWPD)不足的RC墙框架建筑可能容易受到老化引起的劣化和反复地震激励的影响。本研究的主要目的是评估此类建筑物的地震风险,并在考虑老化效应和连续地震动(GM)记录的情况下,分析得出风险管理的保险参数。三个级别的腐蚀速率(CR)或腐蚀恶化被考虑,代表严重老化,中等老化和无老化。采用基于性能的框架,利用非线性反应历史分析建立地震易损性和易损性函数。这些功能随后与特定地点的地震危险曲线相结合,以估计年地震损失率和地震金融风险。结果表明,腐蚀劣化和连续gm的共同作用导致了年地震损伤率的大幅增加,且在接近坍塌的损伤状态下放大最大。财务风险结果进一步表明,随着腐蚀速率的增加,连续GM记录的绝对财务损失增加;然而,在没有老化效应(CR = 0%)的情况下,其在不同危害水平上的相对(相乘)影响最高。最后,采用一种新颖的方法确定了保险参数,并量化了腐蚀变质对年保险费率的影响。总体而言,研究结果表明,在RC框架墙建筑的地震风险评估中,考虑腐蚀恶化和连续GMs的耦合效应是非常重要的。研究结果还为风险知情的缓解战略和保险决策提供了定量支持。
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引用次数: 0
Humanitarian assistance and its expected behavior and land use changes: Insights from Bangladesh and Kenya 人道主义援助及其预期行为和土地利用变化:来自孟加拉国和肯尼亚的见解
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106036
Diana W. Githu , Zack Guido , Erica A. Goto , Corrie Hannah , James Kamunge , Eligah Mutanda , Tim J. Finan , Padraic Finan , Karyn M. Fox , Suzanne Nelson , Prashanti Sharma , Rohit Mukherjee
Disasters routinely lead to acute impacts and prolonged suffering around the globe. Humanitarian programming (HP) provides short-term aid to communities and nations alleviating hardship. Traditionally, and more conspicuously, the focus of the HP interventions has been on providing immediate relief and support in the aftermath of extreme social and environmental events. However, HP often involves layered interventions that not only address immediate needs but also develop individual and systemic capacity with benefits that persist to the future. Although there is evidence suggesting that short-term humanitarian interventions contribute to longer-term resilience and development, how HP interventions influence behaviors have not been thoroughly explored. This manuscript examines expected behavior and land-use changes from HP interventions using a two-phase mixed-methods design. We systematically analyze 40 HP programs funded by the US Agency for International Development's Bureau of Humanitarian Assistance across Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, and Kenya. We also hold discussions with 71 HP implementers from 25 humanitarian organizations in Bangladesh and Kenya to elicit expected changes and challenges in monitoring them. The findings highlight a critical gap in systematically evaluating longitudinal data across diverse contexts to assess the enduring effects of various short-term humanitarian interventions. We argue that a more comprehensive assessment of the impacts of humanitarian investments should include monitoring and evaluation of behavior and land-use changes over time. This approach would provide valuable insights into how short-term interventions shape long-term resilience, guiding more strategic and equitable resource allocation, further enhancing our understanding of the broader impacts of short-term interventions.
灾害通常会在全球范围内造成严重影响和长期痛苦。人道主义方案(HP)向社区和国家提供短期援助,以减轻困难。传统上,更明显的是,HP干预措施的重点是在极端社会和环境事件发生后立即提供救济和支持。然而,惠普经常涉及分层干预,不仅解决眼前的需求,而且还发展个人和系统的能力,这些能力将持续到未来。尽管有证据表明,短期人道主义干预有助于长期的复原力和发展,但人道主义干预如何影响行为尚未得到彻底探讨。本文采用两阶段混合方法设计,研究了HP干预措施的预期行为和土地利用变化。我们系统地分析了由美国国际开发署人道主义援助局资助的40个HP项目,这些项目分布在孟加拉国、埃塞俄比亚、危地马拉、洪都拉斯和肯尼亚。我们还与孟加拉国和肯尼亚25个人道主义组织的71名人道主义方案执行者进行了讨论,以了解在监测这些方案时预期的变化和挑战。研究结果突出表明,在系统评估不同背景下的纵向数据以评估各种短期人道主义干预措施的持久影响方面存在重大差距。我们认为,对人道主义投资影响的更全面评估应该包括监测和评估行为和土地利用随时间的变化。这种方法将为短期干预如何塑造长期韧性提供有价值的见解,指导更具战略性和公平的资源分配,进一步增强我们对短期干预的更广泛影响的理解。
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引用次数: 0
A decision-support framework for fair building retrofit allocation under multi-hazard risk 多灾害风险下建筑改造公平分配决策支持框架
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106046
Himadri Sen Gupta , Dylan R. Sanderson , Andrés D. González
Hazard mitigation planning often misses distributional effects, producing unequal outcomes for vulnerable groups. We present a building-level, multi-objective optimization framework that treats equity as a first-class objective alongside efficiency. Equity is measured with the decomposable Theil index, which summarizes how unevenly mitigation resources are distributed across demographic and housing categories. Efficiency objectives are expected economic loss, average building repair time (days), and the number of displaced people under coupled earthquake–tsunami hazards. Using high-resolution community-scale impact modeling for Seaside, Oregon, we compute exact pairwise Pareto frontiers via an ɛ-constraint mixed-integer linear program with a piecewise-linear approximation of the Theil term, and approximate the full four-objective trade-off surface with a state-of-the-art many-objective evolutionary algorithm. Across multiple budgets and 500- and 1000-year events, results reveal non-linear equity–efficiency trade-offs: higher budgets shift frontiers toward the ideal region and expand the set of portfolios that jointly improve equity and efficiency, yet conflicts remain—most notably between economic loss reduction and equity. The framework yields transparent, reproducible frontiers and spatially explicit portfolios that can be used as inputs to stakeholder deliberation, rather than as prescriptive “single best” solutions. By making the distributional consequences of different investment strategies explicit and quantifiable, the approach provides a quantitative foundation for a more informed, transparent, and equitable planning process, thereby advancing procedural as well as distributive justice.
减灾规划往往忽略了分配效应,对弱势群体产生不平等的结果。我们提出了一个建筑级别的多目标优化框架,将公平与效率一起视为头等目标。公平是用可分解的Theil指数来衡量的,该指数总结了缓解资源在人口和住房类别之间分布的不均匀程度。效率目标是预期的经济损失、平均建筑修复时间(天)和地震-海啸双重灾害下流离失所的人数。利用俄勒冈州Seaside的高分辨率社区规模影响模型,我们通过一个带有分段线性逼近Theil项的约束混合整数线性规划计算精确的两两Pareto边界,并使用最先进的多目标进化算法近似完整的四目标权衡曲面。在多个预算和500年和1000年的事件中,结果揭示了非线性的公平-效率权衡:较高的预算将边界向理想区域转移,并扩大了共同提高公平和效率的投资组合,但冲突仍然存在,最明显的是在减少经济损失和公平之间。该框架产生透明、可复制的前沿和空间明确的投资组合,可作为利益相关者审议的投入,而不是规定性的“单一最佳”解决方案。通过使不同投资策略的分配结果明确和可量化,该方法为更加知情、透明和公平的规划过程提供了定量基础,从而促进了程序和分配正义。
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引用次数: 0
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International journal of disaster risk reduction
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