Pub Date : 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106006
Dedi Sasmito Utomo , Sumarmi , Syamsul Bachri
This study investigates the Larung Sesaji ritual as a community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR) practice at Mount Kelud, Indonesia. For communities living near this active volcano, the annual ritual acts as a cultural mechanism that boosts their disaster preparedness. Using a qualitative ethnographic approach, data were gathered through in-depth interviews with four key informants, participatory observations, and document analyses. This research offers a novel multidimensional analysis showing that Larung Sesaji enhances community resilience across four interconnected dimensions: psychological benefits that support emotional regulation and hope through religious beliefs; social bonding and intergenerational social capital development via collective work practices (gotong royong); environmental conservation messages and sustainable resource management; and practical benefits that improve mental mapping of evacuation routes and internalisation of emergency protocols. The study reveals that the ritual's design aligns with key priorities of the Sendai Framework, demonstrating how traditional knowledge can be effectively integrated into modern DRR approaches to strengthen community capacity while safeguarding cultural heritage.
{"title":"Larung Sesaji as an indigenous community resilience practice at Mount Kelud, Indonesia","authors":"Dedi Sasmito Utomo , Sumarmi , Syamsul Bachri","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the <em>Larung Sesaji</em> ritual as a community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR) practice at Mount Kelud, Indonesia. For communities living near this active volcano, the annual ritual acts as a cultural mechanism that boosts their disaster preparedness. Using a qualitative ethnographic approach, data were gathered through in-depth interviews with four key informants, participatory observations, and document analyses. This research offers a novel multidimensional analysis showing that <em>Larung Sesaji</em> enhances community resilience across four interconnected dimensions: psychological benefits that support emotional regulation and hope through religious beliefs; social bonding and intergenerational social capital development via collective work practices (<em>gotong royong</em>); environmental conservation messages and sustainable resource management; and practical benefits that improve mental mapping of evacuation routes and internalisation of emergency protocols. The study reveals that the ritual's design aligns with key priorities of the Sendai Framework, demonstrating how traditional knowledge can be effectively integrated into modern DRR approaches to strengthen community capacity while safeguarding cultural heritage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 106006"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Disasters disrupt people's lives and continue to adversely impact them beyond the immediate aftermath. Whilst the literature establishes that disasters affect wellbeing through multiple channels, our paper contributes by examining the persistence of these effects over subsequent years and testing whether financial impacts serve as a key explanatory mechanism. Using rich, longitudinal data from Australia's HILDA Survey, we employ mediation analysis to understand the temporal patterns of disaster impacts and individual recovery by focusing on their wellbeing levels measured by life satisfaction, social connectedness, and happiness. Our fixed-effects regression analysis reveals that disasters reduce the life satisfaction and happiness of those affected, with adverse effects extending well beyond the year of occurrence. These effects are explained by lower financial satisfaction and remain consistent across specifications accounting for multiple disasters. We also find a positive impact of disasters on the social connectedness of respondents. These findings support the call for sustained support services and wellbeing assessments of disaster-affected communities.
{"title":"A longitudinal study of the impact of disasters on individual wellbeing","authors":"Nikita Sharma , Ella Kuskoff , Cameron Parsell , Nathan Middlebrook","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105999","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105999","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disasters disrupt people's lives and continue to adversely impact them beyond the immediate aftermath. Whilst the literature establishes that disasters affect wellbeing through multiple channels, our paper contributes by examining the persistence of these effects over subsequent years and testing whether financial impacts serve as a key explanatory mechanism. Using rich, longitudinal data from Australia's HILDA Survey, we employ mediation analysis to understand the temporal patterns of disaster impacts and individual recovery by focusing on their wellbeing levels measured by life satisfaction, social connectedness, and happiness. Our fixed-effects regression analysis reveals that disasters reduce the life satisfaction and happiness of those affected, with adverse effects extending well beyond the year of occurrence. These effects are explained by lower financial satisfaction and remain consistent across specifications accounting for multiple disasters. We also find a positive impact of disasters on the social connectedness of respondents. These findings support the call for sustained support services and wellbeing assessments of disaster-affected communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105999"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105990
Cristine Griffo, Massimiliano Pittore
The United Nations World Cities Report 2022 predicts that global urbanization will increase from 56% in 2021 to 68% in 2050. This will lead to consequences, including the impact of natural, environmental, and anthropogenic risks on cities. These risks will manifest as physical damage to buildings and adverse effects on services to the population and socio-economic structures, as well as losses of life. Cities are adaptive complex systems with intricate interactions between inhabitants and infrastructure, often compared to living organisms. As system complexity increases, understanding and sharing information become more challenging. One alternative to address these challenges is the development of ontological models that use modeling languages to capture the shared semantics of specific parts of the world and their perceived reality, thereby improving understanding and information sharing. Although there are ontological models and taxonomies in the literature that address topics such as cities, population, urban infrastructure, and the geosphere, few represent these elements coexisting and from different perspectives of risk and hazards. Moreover, most of them do not use foundational ontologies, which can lead to inconsistencies and validation drawbacks. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the multi-risk analysis in urban systems and risk reduction by addressing the aforementioned gaps. To this end, a risk-driven ontological model of urban systems is proposed. This model is based on a foundational ontology and integrates the main elements of an urban system. In addition, a thesaurus was implemented and made available online on an open-source platform (Skosmos platform) that is easily accessible to both experts and laypeople. The results were validated with stakeholders through case studies, storylines, and interviews.
{"title":"Representing multi-hazard events in urban systems: An ontology-based model","authors":"Cristine Griffo, Massimiliano Pittore","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105990","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105990","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The United Nations World Cities Report 2022 predicts that global urbanization will increase from 56% in 2021 to 68% in 2050. This will lead to consequences, including the impact of natural, environmental, and anthropogenic risks on cities. These risks will manifest as physical damage to buildings and adverse effects on services to the population and socio-economic structures, as well as losses of life. Cities are adaptive complex systems with intricate interactions between inhabitants and infrastructure, often compared to living organisms. As system complexity increases, understanding and sharing information become more challenging. One alternative to address these challenges is the development of ontological models that use modeling languages to capture the shared semantics of specific parts of the world and their perceived reality, thereby improving understanding and information sharing. Although there are ontological models and taxonomies in the literature that address topics such as cities, population, urban infrastructure, and the geosphere, few represent these elements coexisting and from different perspectives of risk and hazards. Moreover, most of them do not use foundational ontologies, which can lead to inconsistencies and validation drawbacks. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the multi-risk analysis in urban systems and risk reduction by addressing the aforementioned gaps. To this end, a risk-driven ontological model of urban systems is proposed. This model is based on a foundational ontology and integrates the main elements of an urban system. In addition, a thesaurus was implemented and made available online on an open-source platform (Skosmos platform) that is easily accessible to both experts and laypeople. The results were validated with stakeholders through case studies, storylines, and interviews.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105990"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106001
Byung-Chul Lee , Jung Eun Kang , Sang-hyeok Lee , Sung Soon Yoon
Setting up buffer zones to avoid coastal erosion is a method used worldwide, but not been widely adopted in South Korea. The economic feasibility of buffer zones raises questions. Using spatial cost-benefit analysis (CBA), this study compared setback acquisition costs with previously invested costs in hard protection and nourishment at two contrasting beaches: Gungchon-Munam Beach (in a rural area) and Haeundae Beach (in a highly developed urban area). Erosion zones by 2100 were predicted using MeePaSoL and HaeSaBeeN under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 sea-level rise scenarios. For Gungchon-Munam Beach, the results showed that the entire erosion-prone area can be acquired at a lower cost than past investments in hard infrastructure. By contrast, owing to high land and building values, Haeundae Beach allows only partial acquisition under equivalent costs. However, priority areas for setback buffer zones can still be identified. These findings suggest that setback strategies may be more economically viable in rural areas and selectively applicable in urban zones. This study proposes a replicable spatial CBA framework for determining effective setback areas, providing a decision-making tool for integrated coastal management. While the analysis focused on economic factors, the results highlight the need for future studies to incorporate ecological and social factors into the research. The proposed method supports precautionary coastal planning under climate change and can aid in long-term resilience by minimizing sunk costs and improving adaptive policy decisions.
{"title":"Application of cost-benefit analysis for establishing coastal erosion setback buffer zones in South Korea","authors":"Byung-Chul Lee , Jung Eun Kang , Sang-hyeok Lee , Sung Soon Yoon","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Setting up buffer zones to avoid coastal erosion is a method used worldwide, but not been widely adopted in South Korea. The economic feasibility of buffer zones raises questions. Using spatial cost-benefit analysis (CBA), this study compared setback acquisition costs with previously invested costs in hard protection and nourishment at two contrasting beaches: Gungchon-Munam Beach (in a rural area) and Haeundae Beach (in a highly developed urban area). Erosion zones by 2100 were predicted using MeePaSoL and HaeSaBeeN under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 sea-level rise scenarios. For Gungchon-Munam Beach, the results showed that the entire erosion-prone area can be acquired at a lower cost than past investments in hard infrastructure. By contrast, owing to high land and building values, Haeundae Beach allows only partial acquisition under equivalent costs. However, priority areas for setback buffer zones can still be identified. These findings suggest that setback strategies may be more economically viable in rural areas and selectively applicable in urban zones. This study proposes a replicable spatial CBA framework for determining effective setback areas, providing a decision-making tool for integrated coastal management. While the analysis focused on economic factors, the results highlight the need for future studies to incorporate ecological and social factors into the research. The proposed method supports precautionary coastal planning under climate change and can aid in long-term resilience by minimizing sunk costs and improving adaptive policy decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 106001"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Predicting flash flood impacts remains a major challenge due to intrinsic uncertainty in rainfall spatial-temporal structure and limited understanding of how rainfall organization propagates through hydrological and hydrodynamic processes to generate urban-scale impacts. These limitations hinder the development of reliable impact-based early warning systems for small, fast-responding catchments.
To address these challenges, we introduce a Stochastic Rain-on-Grid framework that explicitly accounts for rainfall uncertainty by coupling a high-resolution stochastic rainfall generator with a 2D hydrodynamic model operating at the watershed scale. The framework is applied to a representative high-impact flash flood event affecting a piedmont urbanized area characterized by complex interactions between mountain and urban flooding processes. Using 100 equiprobable synthetic storms reproducing the statistical properties of the observed radar rainfall (200 m, 2 min), we assess how rainfall spatio-temporal variability alone influences catchment response and street-level flood impacts.
Results show substantial variability in simulated hydrographs despite statistically similar rainfall inputs, while this variability systematically attenuates at the street scale, leading to more stable hazard classifications. This indicates that impact-based hydrodynamic indicators are more robust targets for early warning systems than traditional hydrograph-based metrics. Analysis of rainfall structure metrics reveals that spatial and temporal coefficients of variation consistently correlate with impact severity. Building on these relationships, we propose the Storm Variability Diagram, which classifies equiprobable events by expected impact and significantly reduces uncertainty in hazard mapping through ensemble partitioning.
Overall, this study provides a proof-of-concept for impact-oriented uncertainty assessment through a modular and transferable framework, supporting uncertainty-aware flash flood forecasting.
{"title":"A stochastic rain-on-grid framework for handling spatio-temporal rainfall uncertainty in impact-based flood nowcasting","authors":"Pierfranco Costabile , Margherita Lombardo , Carmelina Costanzo , Ioannis Tsoukalas , Vasilis Bellos","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105998","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105998","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Predicting flash flood impacts remains a major challenge due to intrinsic uncertainty in rainfall spatial-temporal structure and limited understanding of how rainfall organization propagates through hydrological and hydrodynamic processes to generate urban-scale impacts. These limitations hinder the development of reliable impact-based early warning systems for small, fast-responding catchments.</div><div>To address these challenges, we introduce a Stochastic Rain-on-Grid framework that explicitly accounts for rainfall uncertainty by coupling a high-resolution stochastic rainfall generator with a 2D hydrodynamic model operating at the watershed scale. The framework is applied to a representative high-impact flash flood event affecting a piedmont urbanized area characterized by complex interactions between mountain and urban flooding processes. Using 100 equiprobable synthetic storms reproducing the statistical properties of the observed radar rainfall (200 m, 2 min), we assess how rainfall spatio-temporal variability alone influences catchment response and street-level flood impacts.</div><div>Results show substantial variability in simulated hydrographs despite statistically similar rainfall inputs, while this variability systematically attenuates at the street scale, leading to more stable hazard classifications. This indicates that impact-based hydrodynamic indicators are more robust targets for early warning systems than traditional hydrograph-based metrics. Analysis of rainfall structure metrics reveals that spatial and temporal coefficients of variation consistently correlate with impact severity. Building on these relationships, we propose the Storm Variability Diagram, which classifies equiprobable events by expected impact and significantly reduces uncertainty in hazard mapping through ensemble partitioning.</div><div>Overall, this study provides a proof-of-concept for impact-oriented uncertainty assessment through a modular and transferable framework, supporting uncertainty-aware flash flood forecasting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"134 ","pages":"Article 105998"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146036826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105992
Sara Waring, Nicole Balmer, Hannah Langley, Kelsea Williams, Elena Vaughan-Chantler, Nicola Power
Effective disaster response depends on the ability of diverse organisations to collaborate seamlessly under pressure. Previous research has largely centred on the ‘blue-light’ emergency services (police, fire, and ambulance), with much less being known about how wider emergency and resilience partners experience and enact collaboration in practice. This paper addresses that gap by examining the perceived challenges and opportunities for multi-agency cooperation across a broader range of responders. Drawing on twenty-six semi-structured interviews with representatives from local authorities, the National Health Service, His Majesty's Coastguard, the UK Health Security Agency, and the Ministry of Defence, the study explores how the UK's national Joint Emergency Services Interoperability Principles (JESIP) framework is understood and applied beyond traditional emergency services. Thematic analysis revealed seven interrelated factors shaping the embedding of JESIP: (i) Inclusivity; (ii) Training and exercising; (iii) Continuous learning and development; (iv) Relationships; (v) Organisational culture and policies; (vi) Technology; and (vi) Personnel and financial constraints. Findings indicate that while JESIP provides a valuable foundation for coordination, its perceived ‘blue-light’ focus limits engagement and ownership across the wider emergency community. By highlighting the experiences of often-overlooked responders, this study offers new insight into how interoperability frameworks can be made more inclusive, adaptive, and effective. The research contributes to both policy and practice by informing the evolution of multi-agency collaboration mechanisms critical to saving lives and strengthening resilience during future crises.
{"title":"Embedding collaboration in disaster response: Insights from the joint emergency services interoperability principles","authors":"Sara Waring, Nicole Balmer, Hannah Langley, Kelsea Williams, Elena Vaughan-Chantler, Nicola Power","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105992","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105992","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective disaster response depends on the ability of diverse organisations to collaborate seamlessly under pressure. Previous research has largely centred on the ‘blue-light’ emergency services (police, fire, and ambulance), with much less being known about how wider emergency and resilience partners experience and enact collaboration in practice. This paper addresses that gap by examining the perceived challenges and opportunities for multi-agency cooperation across a broader range of responders. Drawing on twenty-six semi-structured interviews with representatives from local authorities, the National Health Service, His Majesty's Coastguard, the UK Health Security Agency, and the Ministry of Defence, the study explores how the UK's national <strong>Joint Emergency Services Interoperability Principles (JESIP)</strong> framework is understood and applied beyond traditional emergency services. Thematic analysis revealed seven interrelated factors shaping the embedding of JESIP: <strong>(</strong>i) Inclusivity; (ii) Training and exercising; (iii) Continuous learning and development; (iv) Relationships; (v) Organisational culture and policies; (vi) Technology; and (vi) Personnel and financial constraints. Findings indicate that while JESIP provides a valuable foundation for coordination, its perceived ‘blue-light’ focus limits engagement and ownership across the wider emergency community. By highlighting the experiences of often-overlooked responders, this study offers new insight into how interoperability frameworks can be made more inclusive, adaptive, and effective. The research contributes to both policy and practice by informing the evolution of multi-agency collaboration mechanisms critical to saving lives and strengthening resilience during future crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105992"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106000
Matthew Daly , Tillmann Boehme , Neil Turner , James Aitken , Alan Green , Scott McKinnon , Christine Eriksen , Paul Cooper
This paper examines how community groups develop resilience over time through influencing and interacting with different societal levels throughout the phases of the disaster management cycle: prevention, preparation, response, and recovery. This provides an opportunity for a more insightful and holistic understanding of the factors involved in resilience. The macro/governmental level shapes governance of bushfire management and resources; the micro level reflects the actions of individual and households; while the meso level represents local community groups providing a bridge between the two through trust-based integration and collaboration.
This four-year longitudinal study used a complexity analysis framework to reveal latent tensions, as well as strong social relationships and community connections. These had implications for the emergent, local-specific responses to the bushfires, based on community attributes, needs and characteristics. The work reveals the importance of the meso level as a bridge between the governmental and individual levels, which can support tailoring, reconfiguring, and organising resources to strengthen resilience. These findings also have implications for shared responsibility, as community-based organisations may disagree with objectives at other levels, eroding resilience across the entire system. The analysis in this paper indicates that careful, flexible integration of the locally specific knowledge, meso level coordination, relationship-building, and transparent information-sharing that community-based organisation can provide, can be beneficial in effectively managing the multiple complexities of disasters.
{"title":"Strengthening community disaster resilience in uncertain times: a multi-level analysis of an Australian bushfire","authors":"Matthew Daly , Tillmann Boehme , Neil Turner , James Aitken , Alan Green , Scott McKinnon , Christine Eriksen , Paul Cooper","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106000","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106000","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how community groups develop resilience over time through influencing and interacting with different societal levels throughout the phases of the disaster management cycle: prevention, preparation, response, and recovery. This provides an opportunity for a more insightful and holistic understanding of the factors involved in resilience. The macro/governmental level shapes governance of bushfire management and resources; the micro level reflects the actions of individual and households; while the meso level represents local community groups providing a bridge between the two through trust-based integration and collaboration.</div><div>This four-year longitudinal study used a complexity analysis framework to reveal latent tensions, as well as strong social relationships and community connections. These had implications for the emergent, local-specific responses to the bushfires, based on community attributes, needs and characteristics. The work reveals the importance of the meso level as a bridge between the governmental and individual levels, which can support tailoring, reconfiguring, and organising resources to strengthen resilience. These findings also have implications for shared responsibility, as community-based organisations may disagree with objectives at other levels, eroding resilience across the entire system. The analysis in this paper indicates that careful, flexible integration of the locally specific knowledge, meso level coordination, relationship-building, and transparent information-sharing that community-based organisation can provide, can be beneficial in effectively managing the multiple complexities of disasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 106000"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145972711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105995
Roben Delos Reyes , Daniel Capurro , Nicholas Geard
Mass casualty incidents (MCIs) due to disasters such as earthquakes and infectious disease outbreaks create a sudden surge of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Responding appropriately to these incidents requires EDs to have situational awareness of both the current and future impacts of an MCI on patient presentation and resource allocation. ED simulation models are used to support such decision making by simulating how MCIs will affect an ED based on hypothetical assumptions or historical data from past MCIs. However, because each MCI can unfold differently, there remains a need to update these ED simulation models using ED observations collected as an MCI unfolds to adequately represent the ED’s current conditions in reality. Here, we present a novel data assimilation method for incorporating recently collected observations into an ED simulation model to align the conditions in the simulation model with the conditions in its real-world ED counterpart during an unfolding MCI. We demonstrate that using real-time ED observations can generate more accurate and reliable estimates of the ED’s current conditions and forecasts of its future conditions, compared with relying solely on past observations. Our results highlight how ED simulation models can function as real-time decision support tools in the ED, particularly for enhancing situational awareness during MCIs to support real-time disaster response.
{"title":"Data assimilation in emergency department simulations for real-time disaster response","authors":"Roben Delos Reyes , Daniel Capurro , Nicholas Geard","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105995","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105995","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mass casualty incidents (MCIs) due to disasters such as earthquakes and infectious disease outbreaks create a sudden surge of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Responding appropriately to these incidents requires EDs to have situational awareness of both the current and future impacts of an MCI on patient presentation and resource allocation. ED simulation models are used to support such decision making by simulating how MCIs will affect an ED based on hypothetical assumptions or historical data from past MCIs. However, because each MCI can unfold differently, there remains a need to update these ED simulation models using ED observations collected as an MCI unfolds to adequately represent the ED’s current conditions in reality. Here, we present a novel data assimilation method for incorporating recently collected observations into an ED simulation model to align the conditions in the simulation model with the conditions in its real-world ED counterpart during an unfolding MCI. We demonstrate that using real-time ED observations can generate more accurate and reliable estimates of the ED’s current conditions and forecasts of its future conditions, compared with relying solely on past observations. Our results highlight how ED simulation models can function as real-time decision support tools in the ED, particularly for enhancing situational awareness during MCIs to support real-time disaster response.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105995"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105993
Lele Zhang , Xin (Bruce) Wu , Kailun Liu , Md Abdullah Al Mehedi , Jiashu Zhou , Virginia Smith , Chenfeng Xiong
Establishing causal relationships between urban flooding and behavioral responses is challenging in tropical coastal cities experiencing seasonal flooding, where exposure often limits distinct control areas, rainy seasons with inundation episodes complicate discrete treatment timing, and satellite temporal resolution constrains flood tracking. We develop a framework that facilitates causal inference by shifting the unit of analysis from geographic locations to facility types. The framework uses two screening metrics to identify donor categories: Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) for identifying facility types whose visitation patterns exhibit minimal sensitivity to precipitation variability, thereby screening for weather-resilient categories rather than direct flood impacts, and Coefficient of Variation (CV) for assessing temporal stability across flood phases. The framework then integrates these selected donors into a hybrid Synthetic Control-Difference-in-Differences estimator. In Lagos, Nigeria’s June–July 2020 rainy season, the framework integrates Location-Based Services data, ERA5 precipitation reanalysis, Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, and OpenStreetMap infrastructure. Analysis reveals heterogeneity: healthcare visitation increased 40 % during flooding and remained elevated at 51 % above baseline through recovery; transportation declined 22 % with no recovery; retail exhibited post-flood rebounds of 35 %. Effect directions remained consistent across three control specifications (Religious-only, Residential-only, and optimized synthetic control), with the synthetic approach achieving 42–64 % reductions in standard errors relative to fixed controls. The framework provides a systematic approach for impact assessment in data-constrained disaster contexts where spatial controls are limited, and discrete event isolation is constrained by monitoring infrastructure. By using precipitation as a temporally resolved proxy for flood exposure, the framework estimates compound flood-season effects using data increasingly accessible in tropical urban settings.
{"title":"Diagnostic framework for causal inference in seasonal urban flooding: Precipitation-based control selection and synthetic difference-in-differences in Lagos, Nigeria","authors":"Lele Zhang , Xin (Bruce) Wu , Kailun Liu , Md Abdullah Al Mehedi , Jiashu Zhou , Virginia Smith , Chenfeng Xiong","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105993","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105993","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Establishing causal relationships between urban flooding and behavioral responses is challenging in tropical coastal cities experiencing seasonal flooding, where exposure often limits distinct control areas, rainy seasons with inundation episodes complicate discrete treatment timing, and satellite temporal resolution constrains flood tracking. We develop a framework that facilitates causal inference by shifting the unit of analysis from geographic locations to facility types. The framework uses two screening metrics to identify donor categories: Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) for identifying facility types whose visitation patterns exhibit minimal sensitivity to precipitation variability, thereby screening for weather-resilient categories rather than direct flood impacts, and Coefficient of Variation (CV) for assessing temporal stability across flood phases. The framework then integrates these selected donors into a hybrid Synthetic Control-Difference-in-Differences estimator. In Lagos, Nigeria’s June–July 2020 rainy season, the framework integrates Location-Based Services data, ERA5 precipitation reanalysis, Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, and OpenStreetMap infrastructure. Analysis reveals heterogeneity: healthcare visitation increased 40 % during flooding and remained elevated at 51 % above baseline through recovery; transportation declined 22 % with no recovery; retail exhibited post-flood rebounds of 35 %. Effect directions remained consistent across three control specifications (Religious-only, Residential-only, and optimized synthetic control), with the synthetic approach achieving 42–64 % reductions in standard errors relative to fixed controls. The framework provides a systematic approach for impact assessment in data-constrained disaster contexts where spatial controls are limited, and discrete event isolation is constrained by monitoring infrastructure. By using precipitation as a temporally resolved proxy for flood exposure, the framework estimates compound flood-season effects using data increasingly accessible in tropical urban settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105993"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-05DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105991
Mariano Sanfilippo , Laura M. Stancanelli , Luca Cavallaro , Enrico Foti , Rosaria E. Musumeci
The cultural heritage of a nation represents its historical memory and its identity character, playing an important role in the economic, cultural, recreational and tourism sector of the country. However, numerous studies show that cultural sites, including historic buildings, city centres and archaeological sites, are exposed to natural risks. In particular archaeological sites are extremely vulnerable to extreme rainfall flooding and debris flow events and other associated natural phenomena, such as debris flows. The effects of different representations of the geometry of the archaeological area are evaluated through two-dimensional numerical modelling of debris flow propagation. The case study is represented by the archaeological site of Villa Romana del Casale in Piazza Armerina (EN), a UNESCO heritage site since 1997. A multi-scenario analysis is proposed to consider triggers of debris flows, upstream of the archaeological area. The results allow us to evaluate how different combinations of landslide events interact with the historical building. The impacts are evaluated in terms of arrival times of sediment flows at the archaeological area and of the volumes of debris and residual debris deposited at the site. Effectiveness of existing hydraulic defence works is also assessed. The results show that detailed modelling of the geometry of the structure, with the inclusion of the perimeter openings, is crucial not only for estimating the risk in the internal areas of the Villa but also for avoiding overestimation of debris flows outdoors of the archaeological site.
一个民族的文化遗产代表着这个民族的历史记忆和身份特征，在这个国家的经济、文化、娱乐和旅游部门中发挥着重要作用。然而，许多研究表明，包括历史建筑、城市中心和考古遗址在内的文化遗址面临着自然风险。特别是考古遗址极易受到极端降雨、洪水和泥石流事件以及泥石流等其他相关自然现象的影响。通过泥石流传播的二维数值模拟，评估了考古区域不同几何形态的影响。案例研究以Armerina广场（EN）的Villa Romana del Casale考古遗址为代表，该遗址自1997年以来一直是联合国教科文组织的遗产。提出了一种多情景分析，考虑了考古区上游泥石流的触发因素。这些结果使我们能够评估不同的滑坡事件组合如何与历史建筑相互作用。这些影响是根据沉积物到达考古区域的时间以及在遗址上沉积的碎片和残余碎片的体积来评估的。此外，亦评估现有水工防御工程的成效。结果表明，结构几何的详细建模，包括周边开口，不仅对估算别墅内部区域的风险至关重要，而且对避免高估考古遗址室外的泥石流也至关重要。
{"title":"Multi-scenario analysis of debris flow propagation on the archaeological site of Villa Romana del Casale (Sicily, Italy)","authors":"Mariano Sanfilippo , Laura M. Stancanelli , Luca Cavallaro , Enrico Foti , Rosaria E. Musumeci","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105991","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105991","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The cultural heritage of a nation represents its historical memory and its identity character, playing an important role in the economic, cultural, recreational and tourism sector of the country. However, numerous studies show that cultural sites, including historic buildings, city centres and archaeological sites, are exposed to natural risks. In particular archaeological sites are extremely vulnerable to extreme rainfall flooding and debris flow events and other associated natural phenomena, such as debris flows. The effects of different representations of the geometry of the archaeological area are evaluated through two-dimensional numerical modelling of debris flow propagation. The case study is represented by the archaeological site of Villa Romana del Casale in Piazza Armerina (EN), a UNESCO heritage site since 1997. A multi-scenario analysis is proposed to consider triggers of debris flows, upstream of the archaeological area. The results allow us to evaluate how different combinations of landslide events interact with the historical building. The impacts are evaluated in terms of arrival times of sediment flows at the archaeological area and of the volumes of debris and residual debris deposited at the site. Effectiveness of existing hydraulic defence works is also assessed. The results show that detailed modelling of the geometry of the structure, with the inclusion of the perimeter openings, is crucial not only for estimating the risk in the internal areas of the Villa but also for avoiding overestimation of debris flows outdoors of the archaeological site.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 105991"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145920850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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