International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第3页

The state of disaster and resilience literature in British Columbia, Canada. A systematic scoping review 加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的灾害和复原力文献现状。系统范围审查

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104848

British Columbia (BC), Canada is exposed to diverse natural hazards, leading to extensive research into disaster and resilience topics in the province. However, within disaster studies there is commonly siloing of research and knowledge between different fields, hindering integrated risk reduction solutions. This review aims to summarize the current state of disaster and resilience research in BC to provide context for future innovative research and response efforts. A systematic scoping review was used to balance the need for quantitative and qualitative analysis. 24 databases were systematically searched, and additional records were added from a Google Scholar scan and recommendations from disaster researchers. In total 4403 records were screened, of which 343 documents were analyzed. 87% of documents named a natural hazard type/s as the primary subject matter, while 13% discussed disaster and resilience more generally. Earthquakes were the most frequently discussed hazard, while storm/weather and drought were the least. STEM disciplines published the most on the reviewed themes (73% of documents). A spatial disjuncture was found between locations discussed in the literature versus historic BC disaster trends. Overall, there were several hazards, scales and disciplines that were underrepresented. Furthermore, there was a trend towards application of methods and findings primarily to inform global conversations, missing opportunities to provide local or regional recommendations, or deeper acknowledgements of cultural and historical contexts. This review highlights strengths and gaps in the current disaster and resilience publications in BC and adds to the growing literature on the importance of interdisciplinary and place-based disaster research.

加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省（BC）面临着各种自然灾害，因此该省对灾害和抗灾能力课题进行了广泛的研究。然而，在灾害研究中，不同领域之间的研究和知识通常各自为政，阻碍了综合风险降低解决方案的实施。本综述旨在总结不列颠哥伦比亚省灾害和抗灾能力研究的现状，为未来的创新研究和应对工作提供背景资料。为了平衡定量分析和定性分析的需要，我们采用了系统性的范围界定综述。我们系统地搜索了 24 个数据库，并根据谷歌学术扫描和灾害研究人员的建议增加了其他记录。共筛选出 4403 条记录，并对其中 343 份文件进行了分析。87%的文献将自然灾害类型作为主要主题，13%的文献更广泛地讨论了灾害和抗灾能力。地震是讨论最多的灾害，而风暴/天气和干旱则最少。科学、技术、工程和数学学科发表了最多关于审查主题的文章（占文件的 73%）。文献中讨论的地点与不列颠哥伦比亚历史灾害趋势之间存在空间差异。总体而言，有几种灾害、规模和学科的代表性不足。此外，还有一种趋势是，应用方法和研究结果主要是为全球对话提供信息，而缺少提供地方或区域建议的机会，或缺少对文化和历史背景的更深刻认识。本综述强调了不列颠哥伦比亚省现有灾害和抗灾出版物的优势和不足，并补充了有关跨学科和基于地方的灾害研究的重要性的文献。

{"title":"The state of disaster and resilience literature in British Columbia, Canada. A systematic scoping review","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104848","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104848","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>British Columbia (BC), Canada is exposed to diverse natural hazards, leading to extensive research into disaster and resilience topics in the province. However, within disaster studies there is commonly siloing of research and knowledge between different fields, hindering integrated risk reduction solutions. This review aims to summarize the current state of disaster and resilience research in BC to provide context for future innovative research and response efforts. A systematic scoping review was used to balance the need for quantitative and qualitative analysis. 24 databases were systematically searched, and additional records were added from a Google Scholar scan and recommendations from disaster researchers. In total 4403 records were screened, of which 343 documents were analyzed. 87% of documents named a natural hazard type/s as the primary subject matter, while 13% discussed disaster and resilience more generally. Earthquakes were the most frequently discussed hazard, while storm/weather and drought were the least. STEM disciplines published the most on the reviewed themes (73% of documents). A spatial disjuncture was found between locations discussed in the literature versus historic BC disaster trends. Overall, there were several hazards, scales and disciplines that were underrepresented. Furthermore, there was a trend towards application of methods and findings primarily to inform global conversations, missing opportunities to provide local or regional recommendations, or deeper acknowledgements of cultural and historical contexts. This review highlights strengths and gaps in the current disaster and resilience publications in BC and adds to the growing literature on the importance of interdisciplinary and place-based disaster research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Towards integrated multi-risk reduction strategies: A catalog of flood and earthquake risk mitigation measures at the building and neighborhood scales 实现综合的多重风险降低战略：建筑物和社区范围内的洪水和地震风险缓解措施目录

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104884

The integration of risk reduction measures for earthquakes and floods is a promising concept in the field of multi-hazard disaster risk reduction. However, existing studies mostly discuss it conceptually, often missing a focus on decision-making. This paper introduces a novel approach by examining synergies and trade-offs between earthquake and flood risk reduction measures. The paper first conducts a detailed analysis of selected measures for these two hazards. It then explores how these individual risk mitigation measures can be strategically integrated at the building level to maximize synergies, potentially resulting in time and cost savings. Furthermore, it discusses the limitations of current decision-making procedures for single-hazard risk mitigation selection when applied to multi-hazard risk (MHR) scenarios. To address these challenges, the study proposes new decision variables to be incorporated into existing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making frameworks with the aim of facilitating strategic risk reduction prioritization for MHR scenarios, ensuring sustainability and community resilience. To aid implementation (i.e., the phase in which the measure would be selected and tested in a series of case study buildings), a catalog of analyzed risk reduction measures is developed and provided as Supplementary Material. In future developments, this catalog will facilitate the integration of these measures into decision-support tools for evidence-based multi-hazard disaster risk reduction.

在减少多种灾害风险领域，将减少地震和洪水风险的措施结合起来是一个很有前景的概念。然而，现有研究大多从概念上进行讨论，往往缺乏对决策的关注。本文通过研究地震和洪水减灾措施之间的协同作用和权衡，引入了一种新的方法。本文首先对这两种灾害的选定措施进行了详细分析。然后，本文探讨了如何在建筑层面对这些单独的风险缓解措施进行战略整合，以最大限度地发挥协同作用，从而节省时间和成本。此外，研究还讨论了目前用于单一灾害风险缓解措施选择的决策程序在应用于多重灾害风险（MHR）情景时存在的局限性。为应对这些挑战，该研究提出了新的决策变量，以纳入现有的多重标准决策框架，目的是促进为多重灾害风险情景确定降低风险的战略优先次序，确保可持续性和社区复原力。为帮助实施（即在一系列案例研究建筑中选择和测试措施的阶段），本研究编制了一份经分析的降低风险措施目录，并作为补充材料提供。在未来的发展中，该目录将有助于将这些措施整合到决策支持工具中，从而实现以证据为基础的多种灾害风险降低。

{"title":"Towards integrated multi-risk reduction strategies: A catalog of flood and earthquake risk mitigation measures at the building and neighborhood scales","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104884","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104884","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The integration of risk reduction measures for earthquakes and floods is a promising concept in the field of multi-hazard disaster risk reduction. However, existing studies mostly discuss it conceptually, often missing a focus on decision-making. This paper introduces a novel approach by examining synergies and trade-offs between earthquake and flood risk reduction measures. The paper first conducts a detailed analysis of selected measures for these two hazards. It then explores how these individual risk mitigation measures can be strategically integrated at the building level to maximize synergies, potentially resulting in time and cost savings. Furthermore, it discusses the limitations of current decision-making procedures for single-hazard risk mitigation selection when applied to multi-hazard risk (MHR) scenarios. To address these challenges, the study proposes new decision variables to be incorporated into existing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making frameworks with the aim of facilitating strategic risk reduction prioritization for MHR scenarios, ensuring sustainability and community resilience. To aid implementation (i.e., the phase in which the measure would be selected and tested in a series of case study buildings), a catalog of analyzed risk reduction measures is developed and provided as Supplementary Material. In future developments, this catalog will facilitate the integration of these measures into decision-support tools for evidence-based multi-hazard disaster risk reduction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142445881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The effects of the Phlaegrean Bradyseism on building systems: Field research applied in Pozzuoli Phlaegrean Bradyseism 对建筑系统的影响：波佐利实地研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104899

The contribution presents the results of field research aimed at assessing the effects of the Phlaegrean Bradyseism phenomena on a building system located in the historic centre of Pozzuoli (Italy). The study falls within the scope of building façade vulnerability analyses conducted by the authors to support the Public Administration in managing bradyseismic emergencies.

Considering that the seismic-deformation phenomena connected to Bradyseism affect the performance and integrity of façade components, the research focused on studying its impact on the technical elements within the Technological Unit Classes of “Load-bearing Structure”, “Enclosure”, and “External Partition”, which directly project onto the external environment and collectively constitute the Building Envelope. The methodology for impact assessment was developed by correlating data acquired from a monitoring system installed on the façade of a surveyed building with characteristic parameters related to seismic events and soil deformations in a specific reference period. The analyses conducted excluded any significant impact of these seismic-deformation forcings on the building's Load-bearing Structure, both in terms of displacements and damage. On the other hand, significant impacts were found on the technical elements of the building envelope, which, due to their lower resistance and ductility, represent a constant hazard for the exposed urban system's safety, configuring a Building Risk scenario.

这篇论文介绍了实地研究的结果，研究的目的是评估位于意大利波佐利历史中心的弗拉格雷布拉迪地震现象对建筑系统的影响。考虑到与布雷迪地震相关的地震变形现象会影响外墙组件的性能和完整性，研究重点是研究其对 "承重结构"、"围护结构 "和 "外隔墙 "等技术单元类别中的技术元素的影响，这些元素直接投射到外部环境中，共同构成了建筑围护结构。影响评估方法是通过将安装在被调查建筑外墙上的监测系统所获得的数据与特定参照期的地震事件和土壤变形相关特征参数进行关联而制定的。所进行的分析排除了这些地震变形诱因对建筑物承重结构在位移和损坏方面的任何重大影响。另一方面，分析发现，建筑围护结构的技术构件受到了重大影响，由于其抗震性和延展性较低，对暴露在外的城市系统的安全构成了持续的威胁，从而形成了建筑风险情景。

{"title":"The effects of the Phlaegrean Bradyseism on building systems: Field research applied in Pozzuoli","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104899","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104899","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The contribution presents the results of field research aimed at assessing the effects of the Phlaegrean Bradyseism phenomena on a building system located in the historic centre of Pozzuoli (Italy). The study falls within the scope of building façade vulnerability analyses conducted by the authors to support the Public Administration in managing bradyseismic emergencies.</div><div>Considering that the seismic-deformation phenomena connected to Bradyseism affect the performance and integrity of façade components, the research focused on studying its impact on the technical elements within the Technological Unit Classes of “Load-bearing Structure”, “Enclosure”, and “External Partition”, which directly project onto the external environment and collectively constitute the Building Envelope. The methodology for impact assessment was developed by correlating data acquired from a monitoring system installed on the façade of a surveyed building with characteristic parameters related to seismic events and soil deformations in a specific reference period. The analyses conducted excluded any significant impact of these seismic-deformation forcings on the building's Load-bearing Structure, both in terms of displacements and damage. On the other hand, significant impacts were found on the technical elements of the building envelope, which, due to their lower resistance and ductility, represent a constant hazard for the exposed urban system's safety, configuring a Building Risk scenario.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142445882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Emergency water distribution systems to improve spatial equality and spatial equity in a heterogeneous community with differing mobility characteristics” [Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 112 (2024) 104730] 对 "在具有不同流动性特征的异质社区中改善空间平等和空间公平的应急配水系统 "的更正[Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 112 (2024) 104730]

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104904

引用次数: 0

Operational status effect on the seismic risk assessment of oil refineries 运行状态对炼油厂地震风险评估的影响

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104842

The operational status of an oil refinery (type and scale of operations that take place at any time instance) largely determines the amount of fuel produced, circulated within the facility, and stored in tanks. This status is affected by seasonality, periods of peak or low demand, as well as periods of routine maintenance. However, it is an aspect that is typically neglected even though it stands out among the factors that determine the seismic performance of several critical industrial assets, such as the storage tanks, as well as the consequences of any potential failure. An open-source refinery testbed is employed herein to demonstrate the effect of the refinery's operational status on the seismic risk estimates. Alternative realistic operational scenarios are developed following typical industry practices and are arranged over a time period between two refinery major maintenance shutdown events. The most probable damage state is selected for each asset to identify the most vulnerable ones. Based on the type and importance of the impacted assets, the potential consequences are determined at the facility level. Resulting estimates are very different if an earthquake strikes during a regular/high/low-demand period, or a maintenance period. The framework can be utilized to identify the locations within the refinery that may trigger cascading failures and secondary damages, should their assets be damaged by a seismic event. The outcomes can be exploited by stakeholders, risk engineers, and emergency action planners for developing customized and businesslike procedures to enhance the seismic resilience of the facility.

炼油厂的运营状态（任何时候的运营类型和规模）在很大程度上决定了生产、设施内循环和储油罐中的燃料量。这种状态会受到季节性、需求高峰期或低谷期以及日常维护期的影响。然而，在决定储油罐等几项关键工业资产的抗震性能以及任何潜在故障的后果的因素中，这一点却往往被忽视。本文采用了一个开放源码的炼油厂试验台，以证明炼油厂的运行状态对地震风险估算的影响。按照典型的行业惯例，在两次炼油厂重大维护停工事件之间的时间段内，开发了其他现实的运行场景。为每项资产选择最可能的损坏状态，以确定最脆弱的资产。根据受影响资产的类型和重要性，确定设施层面的潜在后果。如果地震发生在正常/高/低需求期或维护期，则得出的估算结果会截然不同。如果炼油厂的资产受到地震事件的破坏，该框架可用于确定炼油厂内可能引发连锁故障和二次破坏的位置。利益相关者、风险工程师和应急行动规划人员可利用这些成果制定定制的业务程序，以提高设施的抗震能力。

{"title":"Operational status effect on the seismic risk assessment of oil refineries","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104842","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104842","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The operational status of an oil refinery (type and scale of operations that take place at any time instance) largely determines the amount of fuel produced, circulated within the facility, and stored in tanks. This status is affected by seasonality, periods of peak or low demand, as well as periods of routine maintenance. However, it is an aspect that is typically neglected even though it stands out among the factors that determine the seismic performance of several critical industrial assets, such as the storage tanks, as well as the consequences of any potential failure. An open-source refinery testbed is employed herein to demonstrate the effect of the refinery's operational status on the seismic risk estimates. Alternative realistic operational scenarios are developed following typical industry practices and are arranged over a time period between two refinery major maintenance shutdown events. The most probable damage state is selected for each asset to identify the most vulnerable ones. Based on the type and importance of the impacted assets, the potential consequences are determined at the facility level. Resulting estimates are very different if an earthquake strikes during a regular/high/low-demand period, or a maintenance period. The framework can be utilized to identify the locations within the refinery that may trigger cascading failures and secondary damages, should their assets be damaged by a seismic event. The outcomes can be exploited by stakeholders, risk engineers, and emergency action planners for developing customized and businesslike procedures to enhance the seismic resilience of the facility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Buyouts in the Carolinas: Pre & Post buyout perspectives of public officials and community leaders 卡罗来纳州的收购：公职人员和社区领袖对收购前后的看法

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104906

Compound floods in rural, low-income communities are rising across the United States as storms intensify and weather patterns change. In communities experiencing repeated back-to-back flooding, the events impact residents who have lived in those areas for many generations. Voluntary buyouts of properties at risk of repeat flooding are increasingly being offered as a long-term mitigation solution. This study looks at the consequences of buyout programs in two low-income, underserved, and predominantly Black communities, Bennettsville, South Carolina and Tarboro, North Carolina, that have experienced compound floods (e.g. rain and riverine flooding). Results from in-depth interviews conducted with public officials and community leaders in Bennettsville and Tarboro reveal buyout governance characterized by state-led implementation. While buyout programs have historically been implemented by local governments, the intention to achieve greater implementation efficiency underlies recent state-led efforts. Nevertheless, state-led implementation in South and North Carolina has not resolved long-standing issues within the buyout program that center around program design and communications. Further, while the state-led implementation of buyouts is expected to ease financial pressures on local governments, it can also create unintended consequences for local communities including extended delays, lack of trust in the government, and more confusion over the buyout process. The study recommends the use of a more localized approach and providing program implementation assistance to local governments through established protocols, and creating communication and trust with buyout communities through direct accessible flow of information using multiple modes and a trusted local point of contact.

随着风暴的加剧和天气模式的变化，美国各地农村低收入社区的复合洪灾正在增加。在连续发生洪灾的社区，洪灾对世代居住在这些地区的居民造成了影响。作为一种长期的减灾解决方案，越来越多的人自愿买断面临重复洪水风险的房产。本研究探讨了在南卡罗来纳州本内茨维尔和北卡罗来纳州塔尔伯勒这两个低收入、服务不足且以黑人为主的社区中，买断计划所带来的后果，这两个社区曾经历过复合洪灾（如雨水和河水洪灾）。对本内茨维尔和塔尔伯勒的政府官员和社区领袖进行深入访谈的结果显示，买断治理的特点是由国家主导实施。虽然买断计划历来由地方政府实施，但最近由州政府主导的努力是为了实现更高的实施效率。然而，在南卡罗来纳州和北卡罗来纳州，州政府主导的实施工作并未解决买断计划中长期存在的问题，这些问题主要集中在计划设计和沟通方面。此外，虽然由州政府主导实施买断计划有望缓解地方政府的财政压力，但也会给地方社区带来意想不到的后果，包括延期、对政府缺乏信任，以及对买断过程的更多困惑。该研究建议采用更加地方化的方法，通过既定协议为地方政府提供计划实施援助，并通过多种模式的直接信息流和值得信赖的地方联络点与买断社区建立沟通和信任。

{"title":"Buyouts in the Carolinas: Pre & Post buyout perspectives of public officials and community leaders","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104906","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104906","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compound floods in rural, low-income communities are rising across the United States as storms intensify and weather patterns change. In communities experiencing repeated back-to-back flooding, the events impact residents who have lived in those areas for many generations. Voluntary buyouts of properties at risk of repeat flooding are increasingly being offered as a long-term mitigation solution. This study looks at the consequences of buyout programs in two low-income, underserved, and predominantly Black communities, Bennettsville, South Carolina and Tarboro, North Carolina, that have experienced compound floods (e.g. rain and riverine flooding). Results from in-depth interviews conducted with public officials and community leaders in Bennettsville and Tarboro reveal buyout governance characterized by state-led implementation. While buyout programs have historically been implemented by local governments, the intention to achieve greater implementation efficiency underlies recent state-led efforts. Nevertheless, state-led implementation in South and North Carolina has not resolved long-standing issues within the buyout program that center around program design and communications. Further, while the state-led implementation of buyouts is expected to ease financial pressures on local governments, it can also create unintended consequences for local communities including extended delays, lack of trust in the government, and more confusion over the buyout process. The study recommends the use of a more localized approach and providing program implementation assistance to local governments through established protocols, and creating communication and trust with buyout communities through direct accessible flow of information using multiple modes and a trusted local point of contact.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142445879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Probabilistic assessment of earthquake casualties in residential areas 住宅区地震伤亡概率评估

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104902

Accurately and reasonably assessing earthquake casualties is crucial for seismic disaster planning and governmental decision-making. However, current research on earthquake casualty assessments often lacks sufficient consideration of the uncertainties related to seismic scenarios and influencing factors. To enhance the authenticity and reliability of casualty assessments, this study proposes a seismic casualty assessment model capable of simultaneously considering multiple influencing factors. It quantitatively evaluates each influencing factor and comprehensively integrates the uncertainty characteristics associated with seismic occurrence time, building damage states, and the number of occupants. Using a residential area as an example, the research compares casualty assessment results with and without considering apartment layouts and the age structure of residents. It also explains the probabilistic method for quantifying casualties and constructing vulnerability models for seismic events in the residential area. Additionally, a simplified analytical method applicable to probabilistic assessment of earthquake casualties in masonry residential areas in Beijing is proposed. The research findings indicate that the apartment layouts within buildings have a relatively minor impact on the assessment results of casualties in the residential area, while the age structure of residents significantly affects earthquake casualty estimates. Casualty rates in the residential area, considering uncertainties in the three factors, approximately follow a log-normal distribution. For seismic intensities ranging from VI(0.05g) to IX(0.40g), the standard deviation of casualty rates across different seismic intensities exceeds 0.4. The probabilistic analysis method proposed in this study enhances existing models for earthquake casualty assessments and addresses the shortcomings in probabilistic evaluation research.

准确合理地评估地震伤亡对于地震灾害规划和政府决策至关重要。然而，目前关于地震伤亡评估的研究往往缺乏对地震场景和影响因素不确定性的充分考虑。为了提高伤亡评估的真实性和可靠性，本研究提出了一种能够同时考虑多种影响因素的地震伤亡评估模型。该模型对各影响因素进行了定量评估，并综合考虑了地震发生时间、建筑物损坏状态和居住人数等相关不确定性特征。研究以住宅区为例，比较了考虑和不考虑公寓布局和居民年龄结构的伤亡评估结果。研究还解释了量化伤亡和构建住宅区地震事件脆弱性模型的概率方法。此外，还提出了适用于北京砌体结构住宅区地震伤亡概率评估的简化分析方法。研究结果表明，建筑物内的公寓布局对住宅区伤亡评估结果的影响相对较小，而居民的年龄结构对地震伤亡估算的影响较大。考虑到这三个因素的不确定性，住宅区的伤亡率大致呈对数正态分布。地震烈度从Ⅵ度（0.05g）到Ⅸ度（0.40g），不同地震烈度下的伤亡率标准偏差超过 0.4。本研究提出的概率分析方法完善了现有的地震伤亡评估模型，弥补了概率评估研究的不足。

{"title":"Probabilistic assessment of earthquake casualties in residential areas","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104902","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104902","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurately and reasonably assessing earthquake casualties is crucial for seismic disaster planning and governmental decision-making. However, current research on earthquake casualty assessments often lacks sufficient consideration of the uncertainties related to seismic scenarios and influencing factors. To enhance the authenticity and reliability of casualty assessments, this study proposes a seismic casualty assessment model capable of simultaneously considering multiple influencing factors. It quantitatively evaluates each influencing factor and comprehensively integrates the uncertainty characteristics associated with seismic occurrence time, building damage states, and the number of occupants. Using a residential area as an example, the research compares casualty assessment results with and without considering apartment layouts and the age structure of residents. It also explains the probabilistic method for quantifying casualties and constructing vulnerability models for seismic events in the residential area. Additionally, a simplified analytical method applicable to probabilistic assessment of earthquake casualties in masonry residential areas in Beijing is proposed. The research findings indicate that the apartment layouts within buildings have a relatively minor impact on the assessment results of casualties in the residential area, while the age structure of residents significantly affects earthquake casualty estimates. Casualty rates in the residential area, considering uncertainties in the three factors, approximately follow a log-normal distribution. For seismic intensities ranging from VI(0.05g) to IX(0.40g), the standard deviation of casualty rates across different seismic intensities exceeds 0.4. The probabilistic analysis method proposed in this study enhances existing models for earthquake casualty assessments and addresses the shortcomings in probabilistic evaluation research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Judgment and decision strategies used by weather scientists in southeast Asia to classify impact severity 东南亚气象科学家用于划分影响严重程度的判断和决策策略

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104799

Impact-based weather forecasting requires forecasters to predict what weather might do (impact information), rather than solely what weather might be (meteorological information). In a collaboration between the UK Met Office, UK psychologists, and weather scientists in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, the present study employed Judgment Analysis and decision strategy comparisons to better understand weather scientists' impact severity judgments. In the Judgment Analysis Task, weather scientists (from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam) made numerical and categorical severity judgments for 70 hypothetical heavy rainfall events, each described via six impacts (e.g., number of deaths, number of people affected). The hypothetical impacts were generated from a multivariate distribution estimated from a distribution of real rainfall events. Subsequently, participants provided categorical severity classifications for a list of impact values for each type of impact (Threshold Identification Task) to aid the identification of decision strategies. In all four countries, weather scientists' severity judgments were best predicted by incorporating all six impacts via a compensatory judgment strategy. However, considerable individual differences were identified in the weights assigned to the different impacts and in the identified thresholds for each impact's categorical severity classification. To improve impact-based forecasting, meteorological agencies should seek to enhance consistency among forecasters.

基于影响的天气预报要求预报员预测天气可能造成的影响（影响信息），而不仅仅是天气可能是什么（气象信息）。在英国气象局、英国心理学家以及印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾和越南的气象科学家的合作下，本研究采用了判断分析和决策策略比较的方法，以更好地了解气象科学家对影响严重程度的判断。在 "判断分析任务 "中，来自印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾和越南的气象科学家对 70 个假设的强降雨事件进行了数字和分类严重性判断，每个事件通过六种影响（如死亡人数、受灾人数）进行描述。假设的影响是根据真实降雨事件分布估算出的多元分布生成的。随后，参与者对每类影响的影响值列表进行严重程度分类（阈值识别任务），以帮助确定决策策略。在所有四个国家中，气象科学家的严重性判断最好是通过补偿性判断策略纳入所有六种影响。然而，在不同影响的权重分配和每种影响严重程度分类的阈值确定方面，发现了相当大的个体差异。为了改进基于影响的预报，气象机构应努力提高预报员之间的一致性。

{"title":"Judgment and decision strategies used by weather scientists in southeast Asia to classify impact severity","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104799","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104799","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Impact-based weather forecasting requires forecasters to predict what weather might <em>do</em> (impact information), rather than solely what weather might <em>be</em> (meteorological information). In a collaboration between the UK Met Office, UK psychologists, and weather scientists in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, the present study employed Judgment Analysis and decision strategy comparisons to better understand weather scientists' impact severity judgments. In the Judgment Analysis Task, weather scientists (from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam) made numerical and categorical severity judgments for 70 hypothetical heavy rainfall events, each described via six impacts (e.g., number of deaths, number of people affected). The hypothetical impacts were generated from a multivariate distribution estimated from a distribution of real rainfall events. Subsequently, participants provided categorical severity classifications for a list of impact values for each type of impact (Threshold Identification Task) to aid the identification of decision strategies. In all four countries, weather scientists' severity judgments were best predicted by incorporating all six impacts via a compensatory judgment strategy. However, considerable individual differences were identified in the weights assigned to the different impacts and in the identified thresholds for each impact's categorical severity classification. To improve impact-based forecasting, meteorological agencies should seek to enhance consistency among forecasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142445880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring the dynamics of social roles in hospital evacuation: Factors, roles and behaviors 探索医院疏散中社会角色的动态变化：因素、角色和行为

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104893

As a critical city facility of our society, it is important for hospitals to be resilient against emergencies for a health imperative and economic buoyancy. Understanding the evacuation behaviors of hospital roles and the corresponding influencing factors is essential for the accurate execution of emergency response plans and well-being. Therefore, this study aims to explore the dynamics of social roles in hospital evacuation by understanding the mediation effects of role evolution factors (i.e., responsibility, competence, and expectation of evacuation roles). Questionnaires on hospital roles, role evolution factors, and evacuation behaviors were designed and distributed, with a total of 324 responses from various hospital occupants. The common method variance analysis, internal consistency test, item analysis, and exploratory factor analysis consistently indicated good reliability and validity of the questionnaire. Chain mediation models of three prominent evacuation roles, namely leader, emergency responder, and follower were developed, with the three role evolution factors as mediating variables, evacuation behavior as the dependent variable, and hospital role as the independent variable. Findings indicated significant path effects of hospital roles and role evolutionary factors on leadership, emergency responding, and following behaviors. One-way ANOVA on egocentric behavior and hesitant behavior of hospital roles revealed that patients have a higher propensity for negative behaviors compared with hospital staff. In light of the findings, the subtle relationship between hospital roles, role evolution factors, and evacuation behaviors was revealed. Role-specific leadership training, role-based emergency response management, role-related following behavior guidance, and negative behavior reduction measures were proposed for improving hospital safety.

作为社会的重要城市设施，医院必须具备抵御突发事件的能力，以保证健康和经济发展。了解医院角色的疏散行为及相应的影响因素，对于准确执行应急预案和实现福祉至关重要。因此，本研究旨在通过了解角色演变因素（即疏散角色的责任、能力和期望）的中介效应，探讨医院疏散中社会角色的动态变化。我们设计并发放了有关医院角色、角色演变因素和疏散行为的问卷，共收到来自不同医院人员的 324 份答卷。普通方法方差分析、内部一致性检验、项目分析和探索性因子分析均表明问卷具有良好的信度和效度。以三个角色演变因素为中介变量，以疏散行为为因变量，以医院角色为自变量，建立了领导者、应急响应者和追随者这三种突出疏散角色的链式中介模型。研究结果表明，医院角色和角色进化因素对领导、应急响应和跟随行为有明显的路径效应。对医院角色的自我中心行为和犹豫行为进行单因素方差分析后发现，与医院员工相比，患者有更高的消极行为倾向。研究结果揭示了医院角色、角色演变因素和疏散行为之间的微妙关系。为提高医院安全，提出了针对特定角色的领导力培训、基于角色的应急响应管理、与角色相关的跟随行为指导以及减少消极行为的措施。

{"title":"Exploring the dynamics of social roles in hospital evacuation: Factors, roles and behaviors","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104893","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104893","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a critical city facility of our society, it is important for hospitals to be resilient against emergencies for a health imperative and economic buoyancy. Understanding the evacuation behaviors of hospital roles and the corresponding influencing factors is essential for the accurate execution of emergency response plans and well-being. Therefore, this study aims to explore the dynamics of social roles in hospital evacuation by understanding the mediation effects of role evolution factors (i.e., responsibility, competence, and expectation of evacuation roles). Questionnaires on hospital roles, role evolution factors, and evacuation behaviors were designed and distributed, with a total of 324 responses from various hospital occupants. The common method variance analysis, internal consistency test, item analysis, and exploratory factor analysis consistently indicated good reliability and validity of the questionnaire. Chain mediation models of three prominent evacuation roles, namely leader, emergency responder, and follower were developed, with the three role evolution factors as mediating variables, evacuation behavior as the dependent variable, and hospital role as the independent variable. Findings indicated significant path effects of hospital roles and role evolutionary factors on leadership, emergency responding, and following behaviors. One-way ANOVA on egocentric behavior and hesitant behavior of hospital roles revealed that patients have a higher propensity for negative behaviors compared with hospital staff. In light of the findings, the subtle relationship between hospital roles, role evolution factors, and evacuation behaviors was revealed. Role-specific leadership training, role-based emergency response management, role-related following behavior guidance, and negative behavior reduction measures were proposed for improving hospital safety.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Developing a healthcare transformational leadership competency framework for disaster resilience and risk management 为抗灾和风险管理制定医疗保健转型领导能力框架

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104898

Climate change-induced hazards increasingly threaten healthcare systems worldwide, amplifying the frequency and severity of disasters and their adverse health effects. This necessitates fortified healthcare leadership and resilient systems capable of delivering quality care amidst escalating environmental challenges and emphasises the need for standardised competency frameworks to enhance disaster readiness and response. As healthcare organisations face evolving challenges, cultivating transformational leadership competencies becomes essential for building adaptive, resilient, and effective disaster management strategies.

Purpose

of this study: This conceptual paper addresses the research question: "How can healthcare leaders' competencies be developed to support healthcare disaster resilience?".

Methods

The study, conducted in 2023, used a narrative literature review, comparative analysis, and synthesis. It reviewed frameworks on transformational leadership and disaster resilience, employing comparative analysis to examine relationships and leadership competencies. A synthesized framework was developed to clarify dimensions and relationships.

Results

Eight ‘domains’ of competencies were identified, in addition to other ‘transferring skills.’ The domains were analysed regarding their component competencies and were broadly classified into knowledge, cognitive and interpersonal skills, and attitudes. This classification is proposed as a ‘Healthcare Transformational Leadership Competency Framework’ (HTLCF) for disaster resilience and risk management.

Conclusion

The HTLCF supports leaders in navigating complexities, anticipating risks, and facilitating collaboration, communication, and accountability, leveraging their transformative agency. This study suggests the use of the Healthcare Transformational Leadership Competency Framework to develop a standardised disaster management curriculum and continuous, ongoing training. This would equip leaders to enhance resilience and ensure coordinated, effective disaster responses for healthcare systems.

气候变化引发的灾害日益威胁着全球的医疗保健系统，增加了灾害的频率和严重程度，并对健康造成不利影响。这就需要强化医疗保健领导力和弹性系统，使其能够在不断升级的环境挑战中提供高质量的医疗保健服务，并强调需要标准化的能力框架来加强灾难准备和响应。随着医疗机构面临不断变化的挑战，培养变革型领导能力对于建立适应性强、复原力强和有效的灾害管理战略至关重要：本概念性论文探讨的研究问题是"本研究的目的：这篇概念性论文探讨的研究问题是："如何培养医疗保健领导者的能力，以支持医疗保健的抗灾能力？研究回顾了有关变革型领导力和抗灾能力的框架，并采用比较分析法研究了两者之间的关系和领导能力。除其他 "转移技能 "外，还确定了八个能力 "领域"。对这些领域的能力要素进行了分析，并将其大致分为知识、认知和人际交往技能以及态度。这一分类被建议作为抗灾和风险管理的 "医疗保健变革型领导能力框架"（HTLCF）。本研究建议使用医疗保健转型领导能力框架来开发标准化的灾害管理课程和持续不断的培训。这将使领导者具备增强应变能力的能力，并确保医疗保健系统采取协调、有效的灾难应对措施。

{"title":"Developing a healthcare transformational leadership competency framework for disaster resilience and risk management","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104898","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104898","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change-induced hazards increasingly threaten healthcare systems worldwide, amplifying the frequency and severity of disasters and their adverse health effects. This necessitates fortified healthcare leadership and resilient systems capable of delivering quality care amidst escalating environmental challenges and emphasises the need for standardised competency frameworks to enhance disaster readiness and response. As healthcare organisations face evolving challenges, cultivating transformational leadership competencies becomes essential for building adaptive, resilient, and effective disaster management strategies.</div></div><div><h3>Purpose</h3><div>of this study: This conceptual paper addresses the research question: \"How can healthcare leaders' competencies be developed to support healthcare disaster resilience?\".</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>The study, conducted in 2023, used a narrative literature review, comparative analysis, and synthesis. It reviewed frameworks on transformational leadership and disaster resilience, employing comparative analysis to examine relationships and leadership competencies. A synthesized framework was developed to clarify dimensions and relationships.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Eight ‘domains’ of competencies were identified, in addition to other ‘transferring skills.’ The domains were analysed regarding their component competencies and were broadly classified into knowledge, cognitive and interpersonal skills, and attitudes. This classification is proposed as a ‘Healthcare Transformational Leadership Competency Framework’ (HTLCF) for disaster resilience and risk management.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>The HTLCF supports leaders in navigating complexities, anticipating risks, and facilitating collaboration, communication, and accountability, leveraging their transformative agency. This study suggests the use of the Healthcare Transformational Leadership Competency Framework to develop a standardised disaster management curriculum and continuous, ongoing training. This would equip leaders to enhance resilience and ensure coordinated, effective disaster responses for healthcare systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0