International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

{"title":"A probabilistic modeling and simulation framework for power grid flood risk assessment","authors":"Panagiotis Asaridis ,&nbsp;Daniela Molinari ,&nbsp;Francesco Di Maio ,&nbsp;Francesco Ballio ,&nbsp;Enrico Zio","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105353","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105353","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floods can cause power outages with widespread impacts on socio-economic activities dependent on electricity for their functioning. Effective flood risk management requires comprehensive damage assessment, yet methodologies to estimate the entire range of expected damages are lacking. This paper presents a new modeling and simulation probabilistic framework for the assessment of damages to power grids exposed to floods. The framework combines modeling tools and approaches from engineering, economics and sociology, namely a flood inundation model to generate stochastic hazard scenarios, fragility curves to describe the stochastic failure process of components in the power grid conditioned to the hazard, a simulation-based model to analyze the power flow, and a socio-economic model to characterize the customers connected to the power grid. Consequently, the framework enables: (i) considering the stochastic magnitude and frequency of floods, (ii) evaluating the vulnerability of power grids components, (iii) estimating their spatio-temporal probabilities of failure, (iv) analyzing the cascading effects across power transmission and distribution networks, and (v) assessing the impact of power outages on the final customers and their likelihood. A synthetic case study is worked out by adapting the IEEE 14 power grid benchmark to the Italian context, proving how the framework allows the identification of the most critical components for the security of power supply during flooding. The outcomes from the implementation of the framework can support civil protection agencies and grid operators in the decision on pre- and post-disruption mitigation strategies, so to guarantee public safety, secure power supply and ensure financial well-being.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 105353"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143534561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An innovative framework to conduct peer reviews of disaster risk management capabilities under the Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM)","authors":"Veronica Casartelli ,&nbsp;Dana Salpina ,&nbsp;Angelica Marengo ,&nbsp;Gaetano Vivo ,&nbsp;Judith Sørensen ,&nbsp;Jaroslav Mysiak","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105350","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105350","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In a rapidly evolving risk landscape, policy peer reviews assessing the disaster risk management (DRM) capabilities are increasingly recognised by public institutions and international organisations as a valuable tool for enhancing capacity building and sharing good practices. During these reviews, experts from other countries evaluate and provide feedback on the DRM practices of the host country, helping to identify areas of excellence and areas needing improvement. Implemented peer reviews create conditions conducive for successful transformation processes that may lead to greater disaster resilience. In this view, the 2020–2024 Peer review programme cycle of the Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) has significantly improved the implementation of peer reviews for DRM and civil protection systems. Major changes involved a restructuring of the overall approach and the development of an innovative Peer Review Assessment Framework (PRAF) to support comprehensive and holistic analysis. These changes resulted from a literature review, comparative analysis of past reports, semi-structured interviews to key experts, and the authors’ own elaboration. This research presents the methodology behind the development of the PRAF and describes its innovative features. It further discusses how its flexible, yet comprehensive structure enables in-depth analyses, fosters policy coherence, and identifies resilience pathways across different scales. Beyond its application within the UCPM Peer review programme, the PRAF holds broad relevance for researchers and policymakers alike.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 105350"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143551433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enablers and barriers to implementing effective disaster risk management according to good governance principles: Lessons from Central Vietnam","authors":"Bien Thanh Vu ,&nbsp;Olabisi S. Obaitor ,&nbsp;Lena C. Grobusch ,&nbsp;Dominic Sett ,&nbsp;Michael Hagenlocher ,&nbsp;Ulrike Schinkel ,&nbsp;Linh Khanh Hoang Nguyen ,&nbsp;Felix Bachofer ,&nbsp;Son Thanh Ngo ,&nbsp;Matthias Garschagen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105344","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105344","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the increasing frequency and intensity of natural hazard-induced disasters, global disaster risk governance predominantly focuses on theoretical frameworks and broad policies, with a noticeable gap in the effective local implementation of strategies grounded in good governance principles. This research aims to address this gap by evaluating the alignment of local disaster risk management policies with key good governance principles including: accountability, collaboration, transparency, information sharing, decentralization and autonomy, responsiveness and flexibility. Using Thua Thien Hue province in Central Vietnam, a region highly vulnerable to natural hazards, as a case study, this research combines legal document analysis and expert interviews to assess both enablers and barriers in disaster risk management. The findings identify several enablers, including clear legal frameworks, public transparency in resource allocation, active multi-stakeholder collaboration, and localized governance approaches that empower community involvement. However, persistent barriers include accountability gaps due to the lack of enforceable sanctions and incentives for proactive disaster prevention. Collaborative efforts remain predominantly government-led, with limited engagement from the private sector. Challenges in information sharing arise from insufficient dissemination of risk maps and hazard assessments at the community level. Decentralization and autonomy efforts struggle with personnel shortages and inadequate training. Responsiveness and flexibility suffer from the failure to adequately integrate vulnerability scenarios into legal frameworks. These findings highlight the importance of addressing barriers while leveraging existing enablers to strengthen governance frameworks in hazard-prone regions, providing valuable lessons that can be adapted to other disaster-prone areas globally.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 105344"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing resilience: A framework for increasing health care workforce knowledge about novel infectious diseases using Ebola Virus Disease as a case study","authors":"Morgan Taylor ,&nbsp;James Patrick O'Neal ,&nbsp;Kelly Nadeau ,&nbsp;James Zerylnick ,&nbsp;Curtis Harris","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105333","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105333","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing globalization of travel and commerce has heightened the threat of emerging infectious diseases, exposing critical gaps in health care workforce preparedness and education. The 2014–2016 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak highlighted these vulnerabilities, particularly in non-endemic regions, where health care providers were often ill-equipped to recognize and respond to EVD. This lack of preparedness underscored the urgent need for comprehensive and scalable educational interventions tailored to high-consequence pathogens. In response to these challenges, a series of 14 educational seminars were implemented across Georgia in the United States, aimed to enhance health care professionals' knowledge and readiness for managing EVD cases through a tiered response system. This study assessed knowledge gains among 1201 participants, including health care providers and public health officials, using pre- and post-seminar assessments. Participants' initial assessments revealed significant misconceptions about EVD, with only 13.5 % correctly identifying the outbreak's epicenter and 19.1 % accurately reporting that two patients contracted EVD while in the United States. Results revealed significant knowledge improvements, with a 24.24 % overall increase in EVD-related understanding, particularly in fundamental concepts (30.95 %) and state-specific response protocols (36.58 %). However, knowledge of active monitoring protocols demonstrated modest gains, suggesting the need for enhanced instructional approaches in this area. The seminar series not only addressed immediate knowledge gaps but also provided a scalable model for preparedness training adaptable to future public health emergencies. Continued education and future research into knowledge retention and practical application will be critical in maintaining health care system resilience against evolving infectious disease threats.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 105333"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143551432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring local responses to coastal risks in Khulna City slums: Towards strengthening resilience","authors":"M.A. Rakib ,&nbsp;Ksheeten Roy ,&nbsp;Md. Asif Newaz ,&nbsp;Md. Atiur Rahman ,&nbsp;Ven Paolo B. Valenzuela","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105349","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105349","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is intensifying risks for coastal cities like Khulna, Bangladesh, making them especially vulnerable to cyclones, storm surges, sea level rise, flooding, waterlogging, saltwater intrusion, etc. Despite this, there is limited focus on how slum dwellers in Khulna respond to these hazards and adapt. Understanding their vulnerabilities and coping mechanisms is crucial for effective climate risk management. This study found 60% of slum residents are climate migrants who migrated from nearby disaster-affected areas such as Koyra and Paikgacha. Around 34% of the total respondents were found to be illiterate, while 43% of households live below the poverty line. The slums were found to be densely populated, with many residents coming from large families, and small-scale businesses were an important source of income for many. Principal component analysis (PCA) identified two major issues in the study area: flooding-related problems and salinity-related challenges. Regression analysis explored that increased flooding disrupts locals’ daily activities, causes infrastructure damage, and leads to economic crises, while salinity hazards aggravate long-term vulnerabilities. This study identified two types of adaptive solutions: resource-intensive solutions (e.g., drainage system improvement) and low-cost, locally managed solutions (e.g., social engagement), both of which could effectively ensure in-situ resilience and sustainability in slum communities. The critical insights from this study could contribute to resilience and sustainable planning efforts, particularly in disaster risk reduction for coastal cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 105349"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143534564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Digital information and coordination system for disaster preparedness in Sri Lanka","authors":"Senuri Disara Siriwardhana,&nbsp;Udayangani Kulatunga","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105347","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105347","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective disaster preparedness is crucial for mitigating the impacts of natural disasters, especially in developing nations like Sri Lanka that are frequently affected by various disasters. This research focuses on enhancing the digital information and coordination systems for disaster preparedness through a detailed user requirement analysis. Employing qualitative methodologies, including interviews and a focus group discussion with key stakeholders, the study identifies critical features necessary for the development of an advanced digital system. The findings underscore the importance of real-time data integration, robust multi-level communication capabilities, and user-friendly interfaces to facilitate rapid and efficient disaster response and management. Significantly, the proposed digital enhancements are designed to address existing gaps in the coordination between disaster management agencies and the affected communities. These enhancements include the incorporation of automated risk assessments, streamlined evacuation procedures, and comprehensive resource databases that are accessible to both disaster response officials and the public. A key outcome of this research is the development of a comprehensive framework that integrates these digital enhancements to improve national disaster preparedness strategies. This framework not only facilitates better coordination and information dissemination but also encourages technological integration and fosters an environment conducive to digital innovation in disaster management. The study advocates for policy adjustments that prioritise the modernization of disaster preparedness systems as a strategic response to the increasing threat of natural disasters in Sri Lanka.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 105347"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143534565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the concept of strategy as practice in national disaster risk reduction: The case of Botswana","authors":"Margaret Opelo Dennison,&nbsp;David Alastair Lindsay Coldwell","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105339","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105339","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The study investigates how strategy implementation is done for national Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in Botswana and what improvements can be made using the Strategy as Practice (SAP) lens. The extant literature rarely explores how DRR is done from firsthand experiences of those on the ground. This contrasts with conventional strategic management strategy in practice, that takes into consideration the process in which individual interactions and interpretations of organisational strategy influence the enactment of strategy on the ground. A qualitative case study approach was adopted, gathering data from staff implementing the DRR strategy at all three levels of the Botswana DRM institutional framework. Data was collected using semi structured interviews, focus groups and the nominal group technique.</div><div>Findings show that there is no formal DRM legislation in the country, meaning there are no legally required risk management systems in place. Due to this, DRR has historically been conducted without effective communication and coordination of DRR strategies and systems at national, district and village levels, as well as adequate technical, human and financial resources. The study recommends that a DRM legislation, sufficient training for DRR implementors, effective resource allocation as well as coordination and communication strategies and systems should be put in place to effectively mitigate disasters that the country may face in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 105339"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143534563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Warned by the past: How Dutch media commemorate the 1953 North Sea Flood as a future climate catastrophe","authors":"Adriaan Duiveman,&nbsp;Lotte Jensen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105338","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105338","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The North Sea Flood of 1953 was the largest disaster to hit the Netherlands in the twentieth century. In 2023, 70 years after the catastrophe took place, Dutch media outlets commemorated the flood. Yet, their representations of the dreadful disaster were not only about the past; they also projected the catastrophe onto futures shaped by sea level rise and exacerbating weather conditions. This article analyses how Dutch journalists appropriated a historical disaster to tell stories about the current-day climate crisis and, meanwhile, “anchored” fearful futures in collective memory. The disaster in 1953 showed the havoc that such a flood could wreak again – a disaster journalists now present as a warning against future inaction in the face of rising risks. The lessons they drew from the disaster, however, differed substantially. Journalists embedded the catastrophe in broader historical water narratives that shape the current Dutch discourse on sea level rise. In doing so, some stressed technological optimism, while others emphasised that the Dutch should take a humbler stance towards the forces of nature. Using the same historical catastrophe, different journalists drew very different interpretations and hence conveyed diverse conclusions to their audiences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 105338"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143551434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Socioeconomic vulnerability of urban flooding in the context of IPCC AR4 framework in Hyderabad, India","authors":"Chandra Prakash Morya ,&nbsp;Vikas Sehra ,&nbsp;Milap Punia","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105334","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105334","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growing number of natural hazards raises concerns about the increased vulnerability of the population in cities, particularly in the global south. Recently the Hyderabad city has faced severe loss of life and property from frequent flooding and other extreme events. The vulnerability assessment in this context becomes a key to planning and responding to urban floods. In the present research, the principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to evaluate the levels of the different indices viz exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and potential impact. Results identify that historically the lack of disaster preparedness along with the urban land development has amplified the vulnerabilities in the core and old part of the city. While the wards having better infrastructural development and access to urban services show low level of vulnerability. The poor urban infrastructural development amplifies the vulnerability while the enhanced adaptive capacity lowers the vulnerability of population. The discussion also highlights that urban flooding amplifies the existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities in the city and, women, non-workers and socio-economically marginalized groups are highly vulnerable. The strengthening of governance through mutual efforts of users and managers for urban land management can reduce the impacts of vulnerability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105334"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A multiscale physically-based approach to urban flood risk assessment using ABM and multi-source remote sensing data","authors":"Xinyi Shu ,&nbsp;Chenlei Ye ,&nbsp;Zongxue Xu ,&nbsp;Ruting Liao ,&nbsp;Silong Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105332","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105332","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;In recent years, global climate change and rapid urban development have led to frequent urban pluvial flooding disasters, severely threatening urban safety and the lives and property of residents. Urban pluvial flooding involves both natural and social factors. Its risk is influenced not only by natural factors such as rainfall intensity and terrain but also closely related to human factors like population distribution and socio-economic development. However, existing risk assessment methods often overemphasize natural disaster factors while failing to adequately consider the dynamic response characteristics of social systems. These methods typically rely on static indicators and simplify the study area into homogeneous spaces, overlooking the differences in drainage systems and surface characteristics between regions. Therefore, incorporating the dynamic characteristics of population vulnerability into the risk assessment framework and developing models that reflect the coupling of natural and social systems are essential for accurately describing the evolution of urban pluvial flood risk and enhancing disaster prevention strategies. This study takes the main urban area of Jincheng City, Shanxi Province, as an example. Based on spatial heterogeneity, the area is divided into regions with dense and sparse drainage networks. A hydrological-hydrodynamic coupled model is constructed to reveal the physical mechanisms of flood evolution in different areas. Additionally, an agent-based model (ABM) is used to simulate population evacuation behaviors and changes in risk states during flooding. Through sensitivity analysis of the key parameters in the ABM, the main factors influencing the dynamic changes in population vulnerability are identified, providing scientific support for optimizing emergency decision-making. Combining multi-source remote sensing data with the cloud model approach, a comprehensive dynamic flood risk assessment framework is established. This framework not only reflects the spatial differentiation characteristics of flood risk in different regions but also quantitatively describes the temporal evolution of risks, offering a new analytical perspective for urban flood prevention and disaster mitigation. The study results show that spatial heterogeneity within the city leads to significant differences in the carrying capacity of drainage systems, with 85.59 % of the drainage network already operating beyond capacity under a low return period (1-year return period). Population exposure exhibits obvious spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics, with the proportion of population risk under different return periods (1∼100-year return period) fluctuating between 15.04 % and 22.64 %, mainly concentrated at critical nodes such as road intersections. The regional flood risk level shows an evolution trend from low to high over time, and the depth of water sensation (correlation coefficient: 0.849) is identified as a key factor affecting","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105332"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}