Pub Date : 2025-12-05DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105950
Samantha K. King , Cynthiann Heckelsmiller , Carol R. Ember , Eric C. Jones , Sebastian Wang Gaouette , Anj Lee Droe , Danielle Russell , Jacqueline Heitmann , Isana Raja , Michele Gelfand
Understanding the human impacts of environmental hazards is a growing concern. While there is a plethora of research on climate adaptation, the literature is highly fragmented, and empirical studies are rarely carried out with global samples. This lack of comparative work limits our ability to understand general patterns in how societies adapt, thereby impeding effective policy and practice at a wider scale. To fill this gap, we outline a global comparative approach to the study of hazards that uses ethnographic data. The approach operationalizes five ecological dimensions of environmental hazards, including event type, frequency, onset speed, predictability, and severity, and investigates how they relate across a world-wide sample of 132 nonindustrial societies with significant variation in time and space. We then utilize this approach to explore how specific ecological dimensions might influence the adaptive capacity of societies to respond to events. Findings uncover generalizable patterns that exist across our global sample, suggesting that predictability enhances adaptive capacity, while temporal factors that promote uncertainty (including slow onset speed, longer event duration, and unpredictability) limit the success of adaptation efforts.
{"title":"From local knowledge to global patterns: a cross-cultural study of the dimensions of hazards and adaptive capacity","authors":"Samantha K. King , Cynthiann Heckelsmiller , Carol R. Ember , Eric C. Jones , Sebastian Wang Gaouette , Anj Lee Droe , Danielle Russell , Jacqueline Heitmann , Isana Raja , Michele Gelfand","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105950","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105950","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the human impacts of environmental hazards is a growing concern. While there is a plethora of research on climate adaptation, the literature is highly fragmented, and empirical studies are rarely carried out with global samples. This lack of comparative work limits our ability to understand general patterns in how societies adapt, thereby impeding effective policy and practice at a wider scale. To fill this gap, we outline a global comparative approach to the study of hazards that uses ethnographic data. The approach operationalizes five ecological dimensions of environmental hazards, including event type, frequency, onset speed, predictability, and severity, and investigates how they relate across a world-wide sample of 132 nonindustrial societies with significant variation in time and space. We then utilize this approach to explore how specific ecological dimensions might influence the adaptive capacity of societies to respond to events. Findings uncover generalizable patterns that exist across our global sample, suggesting that predictability enhances adaptive capacity, while temporal factors that promote uncertainty (including slow onset speed, longer event duration, and unpredictability) limit the success of adaptation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105950"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145748360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-05DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105948
KC Apil , Sabine Loos , Larissa Larsen
As disasters increase in frequency and intensity, governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) face the recurring challenge of reconstructing large numbers of housing units. Dominant post-disaster housing recovery (PDHR) policies often emphasize objective measures, such as structural durability and timely completion, while overlooking household priorities and long-term needs. This study examines how short- and long-term household housing satisfaction can serve as a more meaningful measure of reconstruction outcomes reflecting affected households' lived experiences. Drawing on the 2015 Nepal earthquake, we analyze how policy inputs shaped household satisfaction over time, assessed through objective and subjective measures. We interviewed 33 households that rebuilt through: government funded owner-driven reconstruction (ODR), NGO-led programs, and self-funded without external assistance. Our findings reveal that autonomy in designing one's own house is a key determinant of long-term satisfaction. In the short term, residents were more satisfied with the NGO-supported projects due to reconstruction speed. However, ODR households reported greater long-term satisfaction, despite receiving six times less financial support. Households without support reported low satisfaction in both short and long term. Financial capacity of aid recipients was a crucial moderating factor, as residents with savings or access to loans could modify their homes to suit their needs and reported higher satisfaction. These variations in lived experience, shaped by the economic disparities and the uneven effects of policy inputs, are not captured by conventional objective measures. We argue that PDHR policies should move beyond objective targets and incorporate household satisfaction as a core metric for equitable and effective recovery outcomes.
{"title":"Rethinking housing recovery policy evaluation through assessing satisfaction","authors":"KC Apil , Sabine Loos , Larissa Larsen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105948","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105948","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As disasters increase in frequency and intensity, governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) face the recurring challenge of reconstructing large numbers of housing units. Dominant post-disaster housing recovery (PDHR) policies often emphasize objective measures, such as structural durability and timely completion, while overlooking household priorities and long-term needs. This study examines how short- and long-term household housing satisfaction can serve as a more meaningful measure of reconstruction outcomes reflecting affected households' lived experiences. Drawing on the 2015 Nepal earthquake, we analyze how policy inputs shaped household satisfaction over time, assessed through objective and subjective measures. We interviewed 33 households that rebuilt through: government funded owner-driven reconstruction (ODR), NGO-led programs, and self-funded without external assistance. Our findings reveal that autonomy in designing one's own house is a key determinant of long-term satisfaction. In the short term, residents were more satisfied with the NGO-supported projects due to reconstruction speed. However, ODR households reported greater long-term satisfaction, despite receiving six times less financial support. Households without support reported low satisfaction in both short and long term. Financial capacity of aid recipients was a crucial moderating factor, as residents with savings or access to loans could modify their homes to suit their needs and reported higher satisfaction. These variations in lived experience, shaped by the economic disparities and the uneven effects of policy inputs, are not captured by conventional objective measures. We argue that PDHR policies should move beyond objective targets and incorporate household satisfaction as a core metric for equitable and effective recovery outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105948"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145837162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Inland valleys (IVs) are vital socio-ecological systems in Sub-Saharan Africa and are crucial for agriculture and ecosystem services. However, they are susceptible to drought and flooding and require adaptation strategies informed by robust spatiotemporal analyses of hazards. This study (i) assesses the spatial and temporal distribution and severity of drought and wet conditions; (ii) identify key climatic and biophysical factors associated with these events; and (iii) determine the socio-economic and environmental factors associated with farmers adaptation responses in Benin. Biophysical, climate (1991–2021) and socio-economic data were collected in 68 IVs distributed in Benin's Guinean and Sudano-Guinean climate zones. Results showed that the years 2001, 2002, and 2016 were classified as extreme drought years across all IVs, while 2008, 2009, and 2019 experienced extreme wetness. Drought, occurring in 35 % of the total IVs, was more frequent in the Sudano-Guinean zone and mainly characterised by soil organic carbon, standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and sand content. Wet, affecting 30 % of the total IVs, was more frequent in the Guinean zone and was linked to average annual rainfall, sand content, and SPEI. Farmers responded to drought hazards by adopting organic farming (58 %), implementing irrigation (47 %) and adjusting cropping seasons (85 %). For extreme wet and flood hazards, farmers responded with changes in the cultivation areas (76 %), agroforestry and use of straw and fallow (64 %), and adjustments in cropping seasons and areas (84 %). These adaptation strategies were influenced by market access, access to extension services, and infrastructures. The study underscores the need for enhancing monitoring and early warning systems that integrate climate, soil, and socio-economic factors to better detect and respond to drought and flood risks.
{"title":"Drought and flood hazards in inland valleys of Benin: severities, adaptation strategies and associated factors across the Sudano-Guinean and Guinean zones","authors":"Abiola David Akodekou , Elliott Ronald Dossou-Yovo , Kolawolé Valère Salako , Setondé Constant Gnansounou , Sabaké Tianegue Diarra , Udo Nehren , Romain Glèlè Kakaï","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105953","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105953","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Inland valleys (IVs) are vital socio-ecological systems in Sub-Saharan Africa and are crucial for agriculture and ecosystem services. However, they are susceptible to drought and flooding and require adaptation strategies informed by robust spatiotemporal analyses of hazards. This study (i) assesses the spatial and temporal distribution and severity of drought and wet conditions; (ii) identify key climatic and biophysical factors associated with these events; and (iii) determine the socio-economic and environmental factors associated with farmers adaptation responses in Benin. Biophysical, climate (1991–2021) and socio-economic data were collected in 68 IVs distributed in Benin's Guinean and Sudano-Guinean climate zones. Results showed that the years 2001, 2002, and 2016 were classified as extreme drought years across all IVs, while 2008, 2009, and 2019 experienced extreme wetness. Drought, occurring in 35 % of the total IVs, was more frequent in the Sudano-Guinean zone and mainly characterised by soil organic carbon, standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and sand content. Wet, affecting 30 % of the total IVs, was more frequent in the Guinean zone and was linked to average annual rainfall, sand content, and SPEI. Farmers responded to drought hazards by adopting organic farming (58 %), implementing irrigation (47 %) and adjusting cropping seasons (85 %). For extreme wet and flood hazards, farmers responded with changes in the cultivation areas (76 %), agroforestry and use of straw and fallow (64 %), and adjustments in cropping seasons and areas (84 %). These adaptation strategies were influenced by market access, access to extension services, and infrastructures. The study underscores the need for enhancing monitoring and early warning systems that integrate climate, soil, and socio-economic factors to better detect and respond to drought and flood risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105953"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145748799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-05DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105954
Hyung-Joo Park, Myeong Sook Yoon
Disasters have profound and long-lasting impacts on survivors' quality of life (QoL), which is shaped not only by individual vulnerabilities but also by the surrounding community and policy environments. This study examines the influence of multidimensional factors—personal, social, and institutional—on the QoL of disaster victims in South Korea, with a focus on community social capital and the moderating effect of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Analyzing data from individuals affected by 2017 disasters across 17 local governments, this study employed a hierarchical linear model (HLM) to assess both individual-level (social participation, social support, community resilience, sociodemographic characteristics) and community-level (disaster relief policies) influences. The results show that higher levels of social participation, social support, and perceived community resilience are associated with better QoL. Among policy-level variables, the disaster management fund and temporary housing services positively affected QoL. However, disaster restoration support demonstrated a significant interaction with PTSD levels: while QoL increased with greater restoration support among individuals without significant PTSD symptoms, it decreased for those with PTSD symptoms. These findings suggest that enhancing disaster victims' QoL requires a multidimensional approach that integrates structural assistance, psychological recovery, and community resilience. Moreover, the moderating effect of PTSD supports Hobfoll's Conservation of Resources theory, indicating that psychological intervention should be prioritized, as external resources may have limited impact without sufficient psychological capacity for recovery.
灾害对幸存者的生活质量产生深远而持久的影响，而生活质量不仅受到个人脆弱性的影响，还受到周围社区和政策环境的影响。本研究考察了个人、社会和制度等多维因素对韩国灾害受害者生活质量的影响，重点研究了社区社会资本和创伤后应激障碍（PTSD）的调节作用。本研究分析了17个地方政府2017年受灾害影响的个人数据，采用层次线性模型（HLM）来评估个人层面（社会参与、社会支持、社区复原力、社会人口特征）和社区层面（救灾政策）的影响。结果表明，较高的社会参与水平、社会支持水平和感知社区弹性水平与较好的生活质量相关。政策层面变量中，灾害管理资金和临时住房服务正向影响生活质量。然而，灾难恢复支持与创伤后应激障碍水平有显著的相互作用：在没有明显创伤后应激障碍症状的个体中，生活质量随着恢复支持的增加而增加，而在有创伤后应激障碍症状的个体中，生活质量则下降。这些发现表明，提高灾民的生活质量需要一种多维的方法，将结构性援助、心理恢复和社区复原力结合起来。此外，PTSD的调节作用支持了Hobfoll的资源守恒理论（Conservation of Resources theory），即如果没有足够的心理恢复能力，外部资源的影响可能有限，因此应优先考虑心理干预。
{"title":"Predictors of quality of life in disaster victims: A multilevel analysis of individual, community, and policy factors","authors":"Hyung-Joo Park, Myeong Sook Yoon","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105954","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105954","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disasters have profound and long-lasting impacts on survivors' quality of life (QoL), which is shaped not only by individual vulnerabilities but also by the surrounding community and policy environments. This study examines the influence of multidimensional factors—personal, social, and institutional—on the QoL of disaster victims in South Korea, with a focus on community social capital and the moderating effect of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Analyzing data from individuals affected by 2017 disasters across 17 local governments, this study employed a hierarchical linear model (HLM) to assess both individual-level (social participation, social support, community resilience, sociodemographic characteristics) and community-level (disaster relief policies) influences. The results show that higher levels of social participation, social support, and perceived community resilience are associated with better QoL. Among policy-level variables, the disaster management fund and temporary housing services positively affected QoL. However, disaster restoration support demonstrated a significant interaction with PTSD levels: while QoL increased with greater restoration support among individuals without significant PTSD symptoms, it decreased for those with PTSD symptoms. These findings suggest that enhancing disaster victims' QoL requires a multidimensional approach that integrates structural assistance, psychological recovery, and community resilience. Moreover, the moderating effect of PTSD supports Hobfoll's Conservation of Resources theory, indicating that psychological intervention should be prioritized, as external resources may have limited impact without sufficient psychological capacity for recovery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105954"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145748800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-04DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105952
Muhammad Sajjad Rashid, Elaina J. Sutley
Sea level rise, intensifying coastal hazards, and climate driven catastrophes pose a growing threat to low lying communities. Managed retreat has emerged as a critical adaptation strategy involving the strategic relocation of people, infrastructure, and ecosystems. This study reframes managed retreat from a last resort measure to a proactive, socially equitable, and ecologically grounded strategy for climate resilience.
We offer a multidimensional approach that incorporates scientific estimates, disaster risk reduction, environmental assessment, community interaction, and economic evaluation. Using contemporary climate modeling and sea level rise estimates, we investigate threats to infrastructure, ecosystems, and vulnerable populations, emphasizing the limitations of constructed “hold the line” defenses.
We examined retreat's role in disaster planning, especially where hard protection is not viable, aligning it with the Sendai Framework. Through global and regional case studies, we highlight the importance of trust building, procedural justice, and participatory governance for policy accomplishment.
We explore how zoning and voluntary buyouts, among other legal tools, modular infrastructure, and adaptation based on ecosystems all work together to facilitate practical retreat plans. Finally, we weigh the costs of inaction against the long-term advantages of planned migration, identifying potential areas for reinvestment and transformation. This study provides a practical framework to aid policymakers, planners, and communities in developing context specific, equitable, and effective retreat strategies. Ultimately, we contend that retreat should not be interpreted as the abandonment of development, but rather as the realignment of human habitation with climate and ecological realities, thereby integrating sustainability, equity, and adaptation amid climate change.
{"title":"Managed retreat in the face of sea level rise: A multi-dimensional framework for climate resilience","authors":"Muhammad Sajjad Rashid, Elaina J. Sutley","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105952","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105952","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sea level rise, intensifying coastal hazards, and climate driven catastrophes pose a growing threat to low lying communities. Managed retreat has emerged as a critical adaptation strategy involving the strategic relocation of people, infrastructure, and ecosystems. This study reframes managed retreat from a last resort measure to a proactive, socially equitable, and ecologically grounded strategy for climate resilience.</div><div>We offer a multidimensional approach that incorporates scientific estimates, disaster risk reduction, environmental assessment, community interaction, and economic evaluation. Using contemporary climate modeling and sea level rise estimates, we investigate threats to infrastructure, ecosystems, and vulnerable populations, emphasizing the limitations of constructed “hold the line” defenses.</div><div>We examined retreat's role in disaster planning, especially where hard protection is not viable, aligning it with the Sendai Framework. Through global and regional case studies, we highlight the importance of trust building, procedural justice, and participatory governance for policy accomplishment.</div><div>We explore how zoning and voluntary buyouts, among other legal tools, modular infrastructure, and adaptation based on ecosystems all work together to facilitate practical retreat plans. Finally, we weigh the costs of inaction against the long-term advantages of planned migration, identifying potential areas for reinvestment and transformation. This study provides a practical framework to aid policymakers, planners, and communities in developing context specific, equitable, and effective retreat strategies. Ultimately, we contend that retreat should not be interpreted as the abandonment of development, but rather as the realignment of human habitation with climate and ecological realities, thereby integrating sustainability, equity, and adaptation amid climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105952"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145749226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-03DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105949
Moritz Schneider , Lukas Halekotte , Tina Comes , Frank Fiedrich
To effectively coordinate the response to a flood disaster, decision-makers have to prioritise areas that are in most urgent need of assistance. This prioritisation often has to be carried out under time pressure and on the basis of incomplete information, creating a high cognitive load for decision-makers. Methods that integrate Bayesian networks into GIS to draw spatial inference can inform this prioritisation process. However, existing approaches are not equipped to address the time pressure and unclear information-scape that is typical for a flood disaster. In this work, we present a novel spatial inference method for area prioritisation that is designed to address these time and information constraints. The core of this method is a GIS-informed Bayesian network, integrated into an expected loss framework, that can be set up during the preparation phase. The method can then quickly provide area prioritisation recommendations for disaster relief, which has the potential to support decisions-makers during the response phase. In this way, our method provides a means of shifting some of the most time-consuming aspects of the decision-making process from the time-critical disaster response phase to the less critical preparation phase. To illustrate how our method can support rapid and transparent area prioritisation, we present a case study of an extreme flood scenario in Cologne, Germany.
{"title":"Prioritisation Recommendation Mapping (PrioReMap): A method for supporting relief coordination in flood disaster response","authors":"Moritz Schneider , Lukas Halekotte , Tina Comes , Frank Fiedrich","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105949","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105949","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To effectively coordinate the response to a flood disaster, decision-makers have to prioritise areas that are in most urgent need of assistance. This prioritisation often has to be carried out under time pressure and on the basis of incomplete information, creating a high cognitive load for decision-makers. Methods that integrate Bayesian networks into GIS to draw spatial inference can inform this prioritisation process. However, existing approaches are not equipped to address the time pressure and unclear information-scape that is typical for a flood disaster. In this work, we present a novel spatial inference method for area prioritisation that is designed to address these time and information constraints. The core of this method is a GIS-informed Bayesian network, integrated into an expected loss framework, that can be set up during the preparation phase. The method can then quickly provide area prioritisation recommendations for disaster relief, which has the potential to support decisions-makers during the response phase. In this way, our method provides a means of shifting some of the most time-consuming aspects of the decision-making process from the time-critical disaster response phase to the less critical preparation phase. To illustrate how our method can support rapid and transparent area prioritisation, we present a case study of an extreme flood scenario in Cologne, Germany.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105949"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145692756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Floods pose significant threats to railway infrastructure, given their linear extension across diverse landscapes and frequent intersections with rivers. While European countries have developed Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs) following the EU Floods Directive, a comprehensive analysis of railway network flood susceptibility at national scale is still lacking for Italy. Here we develop a comprehensive flood hazard classification for the Italian Railway Network (IRN). Our methodology integrates flood hazard maps, railway infrastructure data, and digital elevation models to characterize flood hazard classes along flood-prone railway routes. The approach distinguishes between steep rapid, rapid and slow flood processes, based on topographical characteristics. Results demonstrate that, for the low probability flood hazard scenario (return period ≥500 years), 25.63 % of the IRN (4,523.4 km) exhibits flood susceptibility, with this proportion declining to 19.09 % and 9.77 % for medium and high flood hazard, respectively. By performing a regional analysis across seven hydrographic districts in Italy, a substantial spatial variability emerges, with the Po River district encompassing nearly half (47.5 %) of all flood-prone railway sections. Our analysis reveals also a marked predominance of rapid flood processes, characterized by values for the time of concentration <12 h. Our classification framework provides crucial insights for risk mitigation and resource allocation, relying exclusively on FRMPs and digital elevation models. The methodology presents a scalable approach applicable to other transportation networks and study areas, supporting infrastructure managers in developing targeted flood protection measures.
{"title":"A nation-wide classification of the Italian Railway Network susceptibility to flood hazard","authors":"Gianluca Lelli , Serena Ceola , Alessio Domeneghetti , Adriana Galli , Edmondo Elisei , Alessandro Rinaldi , Armando Brath","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105946","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105946","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floods pose significant threats to railway infrastructure, given their linear extension across diverse landscapes and frequent intersections with rivers. While European countries have developed Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs) following the EU Floods Directive, a comprehensive analysis of railway network flood susceptibility at national scale is still lacking for Italy. Here we develop a comprehensive flood hazard classification for the Italian Railway Network (IRN). Our methodology integrates flood hazard maps, railway infrastructure data, and digital elevation models to characterize flood hazard classes along flood-prone railway routes. The approach distinguishes between steep rapid, rapid and slow flood processes, based on topographical characteristics. Results demonstrate that, for the low probability flood hazard scenario (return period ≥500 years), 25.63 % of the IRN (4,523.4 km) exhibits flood susceptibility, with this proportion declining to 19.09 % and 9.77 % for medium and high flood hazard, respectively. By performing a regional analysis across seven hydrographic districts in Italy, a substantial spatial variability emerges, with the Po River district encompassing nearly half (47.5 %) of all flood-prone railway sections. Our analysis reveals also a marked predominance of rapid flood processes, characterized by values for the time of concentration <12 h. Our classification framework provides crucial insights for risk mitigation and resource allocation, relying exclusively on FRMPs and digital elevation models. The methodology presents a scalable approach applicable to other transportation networks and study areas, supporting infrastructure managers in developing targeted flood protection measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105946"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145749224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-02DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105947
Francesco Pauli , Stefano Parolai
We propose a simulation-based approach to compare probabilistic hazard and risk models, exploiting the Bayesian prior/posterior predictive p-values (PPP) framework. The comparison can utilize an arbitrary summary statistic and can be customized to the aspects of interest, particularly the right tail, which is crucial in risk assessment. The primary benefits of our approach in comparison to existing alternatives are twofold. Firstly, it incorporates both aleatory and epistemic variability in a natural probabilistic framework, secondly, it produces interpretable measures of discrepancy. The method is demonstrated on synthetic data and two state-of-the-art seismic hazard models for Italy (MPS19, Modello di Pericolosità Sismica 2019, and ESHM20, European Seismic Hazard Model 2020). The method is applicable in any domain involving probabilistic hazard or risk models, including flood, volcanic, or multi-layer single hazard or single risk assessments.
我们提出了一种基于模拟的方法来比较概率危害和风险模型，利用贝叶斯先验/后验预测p值（PPP）框架。这种比较可以利用任意的汇总统计数据，并且可以根据感兴趣的方面进行定制，特别是在风险评估中至关重要的右尾。与现有的替代方案相比，我们的方法的主要好处是双重的。首先，它在自然概率框架中结合了选择性和认识性变异，其次，它产生了可解释的差异度量。该方法在意大利的合成数据和两个最先进的地震灾害模型（MPS19， Modello di pericolosito Sismica 2019和ESHM20，欧洲地震灾害模型2020）上进行了验证。该方法适用于任何涉及概率灾害或风险模型的领域，包括洪水、火山或多层单一灾害或单一风险评估。
{"title":"A flexible simulation-based predictive approach to compare hazard and risk models: An example application to seismic hazard","authors":"Francesco Pauli , Stefano Parolai","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105947","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105947","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a simulation-based approach to compare probabilistic hazard and risk models, exploiting the Bayesian prior/posterior predictive p-values (PPP) framework. The comparison can utilize an arbitrary summary statistic and can be customized to the aspects of interest, particularly the right tail, which is crucial in risk assessment. The primary benefits of our approach in comparison to existing alternatives are twofold. Firstly, it incorporates both aleatory and epistemic variability in a natural probabilistic framework, secondly, it produces interpretable measures of discrepancy. The method is demonstrated on synthetic data and two state-of-the-art seismic hazard models for Italy (MPS19, Modello di Pericolosità Sismica 2019, and ESHM20, European Seismic Hazard Model 2020). The method is applicable in any domain involving probabilistic hazard or risk models, including flood, volcanic, or multi-layer single hazard or single risk assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105947"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145692755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105943
S. Livne , S. Chibvunde , M. Mwendera , M.B. Aron , N. Davidovitch , F. Munyaneza , A. Rosenthal
Land access is one of the strongest predictors of disaster vulnerability for extreme weather events in rural, low-income environments. In Southern Africa, smallholder farmers face accelerating land loss from both slow-onset stressors, such as declining soil fertility and acute stressors such as cyclones. However, the complex mechanisms through which land loss perpetuates disaster vulnerability require a deeper examination of the lived experience of rural farmers.
In this study, we examined how agricultural land loss functions as a fundamental cause of disaster vulnerability in rural Malawi, drawing on Blaikie's land degradation framework and using qualitative methods. Between 2020 and 2024, we conducted in-depth interviews with 49 community members and 44 disaster responders across Neno and Chikwawa Districts, following Cyclones Idai, Ana, and Freddy, supplemented by participant observations and spatial analysis.
Our analysis revealed that land degradation operates simultaneously as symptom, cause, and result of broader socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Land degradation reflects pre-existing rural-urban inequalities driven by increasing demands for charcoal and agricultural products. When intersecting with cyclones, degraded land accelerates soil loss and forces displacement. Subsequently, land degradation becomes a result of harmful adaptation strategies, as communities turn to illegal charcoal production, creating feedback loops that increase future disaster risk.
Climate change disrupts traditional coping mechanisms by compressing temporal patterns of disaster and recovery, creating double exposure to acute and slow-onset stressors that intersect with existing socioeconomic disparities. The findings demonstrate that disaster vulnerability persists because current policies fail to address land access as a fundamental cause, leaving underlying inequalities in resource access unaddressed.
{"title":"The fundamental causes of disaster vulnerability: Subsistence agricultural land loss in rural Malawi","authors":"S. Livne , S. Chibvunde , M. Mwendera , M.B. Aron , N. Davidovitch , F. Munyaneza , A. Rosenthal","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105943","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105943","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Land access is one of the strongest predictors of disaster vulnerability for extreme weather events in rural, low-income environments. In Southern Africa, smallholder farmers face accelerating land loss from both slow-onset stressors, such as declining soil fertility and acute stressors such as cyclones. However, the complex mechanisms through which land loss perpetuates disaster vulnerability require a deeper examination of the lived experience of rural farmers.</div><div>In this study, we examined how agricultural land loss functions as a fundamental cause of disaster vulnerability in rural Malawi, drawing on Blaikie's land degradation framework and using qualitative methods. Between 2020 and 2024, we conducted in-depth interviews with 49 community members and 44 disaster responders across Neno and Chikwawa Districts, following Cyclones Idai, Ana, and Freddy, supplemented by participant observations and spatial analysis.</div><div>Our analysis revealed that land degradation operates simultaneously as symptom, cause, and result of broader socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Land degradation reflects pre-existing rural-urban inequalities driven by increasing demands for charcoal and agricultural products. When intersecting with cyclones, degraded land accelerates soil loss and forces displacement. Subsequently, land degradation becomes a result of harmful adaptation strategies, as communities turn to illegal charcoal production, creating feedback loops that increase future disaster risk.</div><div>Climate change disrupts traditional coping mechanisms by compressing temporal patterns of disaster and recovery, creating double exposure to acute and slow-onset stressors that intersect with existing socioeconomic disparities. The findings demonstrate that disaster vulnerability persists because current policies fail to address land access as a fundamental cause, leaving underlying inequalities in resource access unaddressed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 105943"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145692753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The seismic risk and resilience are assessed for the G7 reinforced concrete bridge of the Egnatia Odos highway in Greece. It comprises two structurally independent twin three-span balanced cantilever bridges. A component-based approach compatible to FEMA P-58 is followed for performance assessment that allows evaluating damage and consequence scenarios for individual critical components (i.e., piers and bearings) and propagate them to assess the asset-level performance. The consequences are quantified in terms of repair losses, downtime, and actions that the road operator shall take until repair actions have finished, i.e., number of lanes closed and/or speed limit in the remaining open ones. By combining the speed limit, number of lanes closed and downtime, the asset's recovery back to full functionality is determined. The aim for such data is to be integrated into a tool that can be used for pre-event risk assessment and rapid post-event inspection of critical road infrastructure. This allows tracing back the consequences after an event to individual bridge components and can help road operators establish bridge inspection prioritization protocols and manage associated incidents, facilitating the rapid assessment of the state of the bridge and optimal recovery to full functionality.
{"title":"Seismic risk and resilience assessment for the G7 highway bridge in Greece","authors":"Akrivi Chatzidaki, Christos Giannelos, Dimitrios Vamvatsikos","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105882","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105882","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The seismic risk and resilience are assessed for the G7 reinforced concrete bridge of the Egnatia Odos highway in Greece. It comprises two structurally independent twin three-span balanced cantilever bridges. A component-based approach compatible to FEMA P-58 is followed for performance assessment that allows evaluating damage and consequence scenarios for individual critical components (i.e., piers and bearings) and propagate them to assess the asset-level performance. The consequences are quantified in terms of repair losses, downtime, and actions that the road operator shall take until repair actions have finished, i.e., number of lanes closed and/or speed limit in the remaining open ones. By combining the speed limit, number of lanes closed and downtime, the asset's recovery back to full functionality is determined. The aim for such data is to be integrated into a tool that can be used for pre-event risk assessment and rapid post-event inspection of critical road infrastructure. This allows tracing back the consequences after an event to individual bridge components and can help road operators establish bridge inspection prioritization protocols and manage associated incidents, facilitating the rapid assessment of the state of the bridge and optimal recovery to full functionality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"131 ","pages":"Article 105882"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145621162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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